Greetings from the shores of "Lake" Delton, where there is neither water nor Wi-Fi. We were reduced to following the Twins via the crawl on ESPN 2. Good thing it was a pretty uneventful week.
(That was a joke.)
But seriously, folks...
Twins 11, Indians 4
Twins 4, Indians 2
Even Livan Hernandez would have won with the kind of run support Scott Baker got last Saturday. It was just as satisfying to blow up Fausto Carmona (who shut down the Twins in two of Santana's starts last year) as it was to cream Paul Byrd earlier this season. Too bad Baker couldn't get through 6 IP, but the bullpen did a decent job backing him up.
The same could not be said on Sunday, when Nick Blackburn was robbed of yet another W by an ineffective 8th inning. His problems were exacerbated by the Twins' offense, which decided not to start hitting until the 6th inning. Ultimately, the Twins made the most of their few opportunities and won the series.
So, at that point, we had series win, annual sweep at Yankee Stadium, series win since the All Star break.
Twins 7, White Sox 0
Twins 6, White Sox 5
White Sox 8, Twins 3
Twins 10, White Sox 6
Kevin Slowey, Major League pitcher. Way to set the tone for a critical series. And congratulations to Denard Span on his first big league HR.
How great was Justin Morneau in this series? He went 5 for 14 with 2 doubles, 2 HR, 10 RBI and 3 BB. Just when we needed him most.
Livan once again failed to give the Twins a chance to win a game against a contending team.
And then there was the 7th inning of the finale, in which Gardy justifiably protested a very unusual call by the 3rd base umpire, over-ruling a HBP on a potential bunt attempt. Perhaps it was less justifiable for Gardy to pitch such a fit. And there was absolutely no justification for the fans to sully themselves by throwing a bunch of crap on the field. Save the 3rd grade behavior for the morons in the Dodger Stadium bleachers, people.
I give Span a ton of credit for returning to his AB after that monumental distraction and working a walk from 1-2 that started a 4-run, lead-changing rally. The bullpen was smacked once again in the 8th, but the Twins tacked on 3 more in their half to put the game away.
Coming in 2.5 games out, it was crucial that the Twins win 3 of the 4 games in this series, and they delivered. I was struck by the fact that the Twins and White Sox were also separated by 2.5 games when they began their previous 4 game series in Chicago. In the 50 games since, the Twins have outplayed the Sox by 2 games. If they can duplicate that feat over the final 52 games, they have an excellent chance of winning the division.
Alexi Casilla
Wtf? One night he's 1-4 with a BB and 2 R, and the next he's out with a torn ligament in his thumb? How'd he pull that off? Clearly, I have more reading to do.
This is a big problem for the Twins for 2 reasons. First, they lose what Casilla does on the field, with his range and glove on defense, with his speed on the bases, and with his pretty consistently productive bat (.313/.351/.414, 39 RBI in 62 games). Second, he must be replaced at second by Nick Punto, forcing the Twins to fill SS with either Brendan Harris (hitting better but very limited range defensively) or Adam Everett (supposedly very good defense but pathetic bat). Neither one of those players has played at Casilla's level this season.
Liriano vs. Livan
Well, that didn't take long.
Livan's outing on Wednesday was pretty typical: 5 ER on 9 H and 2 BB. He was pulled after 4 IP, which hasn't happened that often, but the result was the same. Wednesday was the 9th time in his last 13 starts in which Livan allowed 4 or more runs. That's a serious trend, folks. The Twins didn't do anything vs. Gavin Floyd, so I can't say it's a game they would have won with someone else on the mound, but it certainly could have been closer.
Francisco Liriano finally got nicked for a 3-run HR on the next-to-last batter he faced in his final start at Rochester, allowing more than 1 run in a game for the first time in a month. Even with that mistake, he allowed just 5 ER in his last 41 IP in AAA, walking 6 and striking out 51. Definitely ready for a shot.
With Livan in the rotation, there was always 1 game every 5 days that I expected the Twins to lose. With Liriano in his place, I expect them to have a chance to win every day.
Twins 4, Indians 1
Why do the Twins keep giving Jeremy Sowers 5 free innings? Once again, Blackburn was rock solid, and held the Indians to 1 run in 7 IP until the Twins could break it open. Congratulations to Randy Ruiz on his first MLB hit! May he be much better vs. LHP than Craig Monroe.
I very much appreciated the fact the Matt Guerrier had a 1-2-3, 9-pitch 8th inning. Just like a real setup man.
Indians 5, Twins 1
Finally, a game I actually watched. Not our night.
The 3 runs the Indians scored in the 4th were not at all Slowey's fault. The leadoff blooper between Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez and Brendan Harris should have been caught, probably by Young. That would have made Jhonny Peralta's well-placed liner inside the bag at first (good piece of hitting on a pitcher's pitch) a harmless 2-out double. Kelly Shoppach shouldn't have come up at all. Nor should he have been able to hit a 3-1 pitch that was knee-high on the outside corner over the baggy by about 4 inches. Good pitch - you just have to tip your hat to the hitter on that one.
David Delucci's 2-run HR the next inning was not a good pitch, but also barely cleared the fence.
The Twins' problems can be summarized by the bottom of the 5th. Carlos Gomez ripped the 2nd pitch just foul down the LF line. He then laid down a bunt to the second baseman and was thrown out by about 4 inches on a sterling play by Asdrubal Cabrera. On another night, he might have reached on either one of those plays. Anyway, Span followed with a double that I thought would be a triple, but Grady Sizemore was able to cut it off just before the warning track to hold Span at 2nd. Had he made it to third, he would have easily scored on Nick Punto's subsequent fly ball. A couple inches here or there, and that might have been a big inning.
Morneau hit a drive into the upper deck just foul. Young flied to the wall in right. Joe Mauer flied to the wall in center. Morneau hit a drive straight into the first baseman's glove. Slowey allowed just 6 baserunners in 6 IP with 7 K - really not a bad night.
I'm sure things will go better tomorrow. At this point, playing without the majority of the team that took them deep into the playoffs last year, the Indians' lineup shouldn't be too much more threatening than what Liriano's been facing at AAA. I expect him to give the Twins a chance to win, which would give them their 4th series out of 5 since the break. If they can keep that up, they should be able to get it done.
Showing posts with label Livan Hernandez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Livan Hernandez. Show all posts
Saturday, August 2, 2008
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Livan vs. Liriano
Indians 5, Twins 4
We flew into Minneapolis/Saint Paul airport yesterday evening en route to our cabin in the Dells on Saturday. My dad picked us up and turned the game on just in time to hear it was 4-0 Indians in the first inning and the 8th man was coming to the plate. I nodded philosophically. After 9 batters and 1+ IP, Livan Hernandez had given up 5 ER on 6 H with 0 K. After that, he went 7 IP, allowing 0 ER on 6 H and 3 BB with 6 K.
This is what I was talking about in my last post. Why does Livan get to give up 5 ER in 1+ IP and complete the game, but Nick Blackburn gives up 3 ER in 1.2 IP and gets pulled? Maybe he could have made an adjustment, too. Maybe that would be a good thing for a young pitcher in a pennant race to learn how to do.
Anyway, the odds never looked good for the Twins in this game. Cliff Lee is one of the league's best pitchers, and Livan is one of the worst. Plus, it was on the road. But the Twins made it close, thanks to some timely hitting from Jason Kubel, Denard Span and Joe Mauer. The lefties in the lineup went a combined 5-13 against Lee - righties went 1-16. Then the Twins rallied against the Indians' incendiary bullpen, getting 3 straight hits to start the 9th. Mike Redmond pinch hit and lined out to first on a diving stop by Ryan Garko. Nick Punto's 2-out grounder through the pitcher's legs hit the rubber and slowed up enough for Asdrubal Cabrera to make the play. Another tough loss, but I like the matchup a lot better tomorrow.
I wish I'd been able to watch the first inning, because one of the things I noticed when I got home and put the TV on was what a huge strike zone Tim Tschida was giving both pitchers. Cliff Lee is tough enough without having a 23-inch wide strike zone. Livan is usually a nibbler - why wasn't he stretching the plate in the first inning? Those balls were bombed all over the field. Carlos Gomez finally knocked himself out making a nice catch in the first, and Span nearly did the same thing later in the inning. If he had managed to hold onto the ball as he hit the wall, the Twins might have won the game.
However, Livan's performance hinged on a couple of DPs. The first was yet another rocket that just happened to find its way into Brendan Harris' glove on the short hop. A couple of inches further away from him, and it's at least 6-1 with 2 on and 1 out in the 3rd inning, and it's Boof Bonser time. Yes, Livan eventually found his stuff, but his line for the night of 8 IP, 12 H, 5 ER, 3 BB and 6 K still works out to a 5.63 ERA and 1.86 WHIP.
Now, raise your hand if you think Francisco Liriano could have done better.
With the Span/Gomez question finally settled, this is going to be my new cross to bear. I think Liriano had definitely shown enough by the All-Star break to take Livan's spot in the rotation. He wouldn't have made much difference last Saturday, but tonight would have likely been a win with better starting pitching. That's at least 1 more win the Twins could have if they'd been sensible enough to ditch Livan. But who's counting?
Oh, I guess I will.
It was funny to listen to Ron Coomer downplay Liriano's recent run of success, actually denigrating his control (42 K/5 BB over his last 35 IP) by saying that AAA hitters are swinging at lots of pitches out of the zone. I think that speaks as well to the deceptiveness of Liriano's stuff as it does the immaturity of AAA hitters. I'm not saying he's going to come up and allow 1 ER in 35 IP. Maybe he allows 3 ER a game, like Glen Perkins. If our starter had allowed 3 ER last night instead of 5, the Twins would have won.
How much longer must he (and the rest of us) wait?
We flew into Minneapolis/Saint Paul airport yesterday evening en route to our cabin in the Dells on Saturday. My dad picked us up and turned the game on just in time to hear it was 4-0 Indians in the first inning and the 8th man was coming to the plate. I nodded philosophically. After 9 batters and 1+ IP, Livan Hernandez had given up 5 ER on 6 H with 0 K. After that, he went 7 IP, allowing 0 ER on 6 H and 3 BB with 6 K.
This is what I was talking about in my last post. Why does Livan get to give up 5 ER in 1+ IP and complete the game, but Nick Blackburn gives up 3 ER in 1.2 IP and gets pulled? Maybe he could have made an adjustment, too. Maybe that would be a good thing for a young pitcher in a pennant race to learn how to do.
Anyway, the odds never looked good for the Twins in this game. Cliff Lee is one of the league's best pitchers, and Livan is one of the worst. Plus, it was on the road. But the Twins made it close, thanks to some timely hitting from Jason Kubel, Denard Span and Joe Mauer. The lefties in the lineup went a combined 5-13 against Lee - righties went 1-16. Then the Twins rallied against the Indians' incendiary bullpen, getting 3 straight hits to start the 9th. Mike Redmond pinch hit and lined out to first on a diving stop by Ryan Garko. Nick Punto's 2-out grounder through the pitcher's legs hit the rubber and slowed up enough for Asdrubal Cabrera to make the play. Another tough loss, but I like the matchup a lot better tomorrow.
I wish I'd been able to watch the first inning, because one of the things I noticed when I got home and put the TV on was what a huge strike zone Tim Tschida was giving both pitchers. Cliff Lee is tough enough without having a 23-inch wide strike zone. Livan is usually a nibbler - why wasn't he stretching the plate in the first inning? Those balls were bombed all over the field. Carlos Gomez finally knocked himself out making a nice catch in the first, and Span nearly did the same thing later in the inning. If he had managed to hold onto the ball as he hit the wall, the Twins might have won the game.
However, Livan's performance hinged on a couple of DPs. The first was yet another rocket that just happened to find its way into Brendan Harris' glove on the short hop. A couple of inches further away from him, and it's at least 6-1 with 2 on and 1 out in the 3rd inning, and it's Boof Bonser time. Yes, Livan eventually found his stuff, but his line for the night of 8 IP, 12 H, 5 ER, 3 BB and 6 K still works out to a 5.63 ERA and 1.86 WHIP.
Now, raise your hand if you think Francisco Liriano could have done better.
With the Span/Gomez question finally settled, this is going to be my new cross to bear. I think Liriano had definitely shown enough by the All-Star break to take Livan's spot in the rotation. He wouldn't have made much difference last Saturday, but tonight would have likely been a win with better starting pitching. That's at least 1 more win the Twins could have if they'd been sensible enough to ditch Livan. But who's counting?
Oh, I guess I will.
It was funny to listen to Ron Coomer downplay Liriano's recent run of success, actually denigrating his control (42 K/5 BB over his last 35 IP) by saying that AAA hitters are swinging at lots of pitches out of the zone. I think that speaks as well to the deceptiveness of Liriano's stuff as it does the immaturity of AAA hitters. I'm not saying he's going to come up and allow 1 ER in 35 IP. Maybe he allows 3 ER a game, like Glen Perkins. If our starter had allowed 3 ER last night instead of 5, the Twins would have won.
How much longer must he (and the rest of us) wait?
Monday, July 21, 2008
Grievances
Twins 6, Rangers 0
Twins 14, Rangers 2
Rangers 1, Twins 0
Oh, so tired.
Baby crying. All night crying. Why is she crying?
Is she hungry? Does she need change? Is she gassy?
Or maybe she's upset that the Twins outscored the #1 offensive team in the Majors 20-3 over three games (allowing just 11 hits!), yet failed to earn a sweep. That certainly upset her daddy. You know I have a hard time losing well-pitched games, but when it's a first-rate pitcher like CC Sabathia or Dice-K, I can swallow it. For me, Vicente Padilla does not qualify, yet he's shut out the Twins twice this season. Argh!
Poor Scott Baker. Yesterday was the 3rd time in his last 8 starts that he went 7 or more IP allowing 1 or fewer runs and the Twins didn't win. With even a pittance of run support, his record could be 9-1 right now. What a drag to lose your perfect game/no-hitter/shutout all at once to a kid who's only been called up for the weekend. Still, what a marvelous season Baker's having: ERA of 3.26, WHIP of 1.09, 5 K for every BB. I guessed before the season began that he would prove to be the Twins' ace, and he's certainly filling that role (until an antsy LHP is recalled from AAA, anyway).
Little things matter so much in 1-0 games. The play that really bugged me (other than letting the count get to 3-2 on Taylor Teagarden) came in the bottom of the 6th. Denard Span led off with a walk, and Carlos Gomez was, sensibly, asked to bunt him over to 2nd. He popped the bunt up to the catcher, and Alexi Casilla followed with a sharp grounder right on the first base line that was fielded at the bag to start an inning-ending DP. Had Gomez successfully sacrificed, I suspect the first baseman would have been playing in (protecting against a possible bunt from Casilla), but a few steps off the line. With that defensive positioning, the exact same ground ball from Casilla likely would have found its way into the RF corner, easily scoring Span to tie the game and putting Casilla in scoring position for Mauer and Morneau.
My agent was about to file a grievance with the blogger's union to investigate the irrational continued use of Livan Hernandez in the rotation, Brian Bass in the bullpen and Gomez at the top of the lineup. Then Saturday night came along and turned my world upside down. Livan had allowed 12 ER on 19 H and 3 BB in just 8 IP over his first 2 starts vs. the Rangers, but he shut them down this weekend, allowing just 2 ER on 5 H and 1 BB in 7 IP. I couldn't have asked any more from Francisco Liriano (except quite a few more strikeouts, perhaps). Bass relieved him and had a 1-2-3 8th inning with a strikeout. And Gomez went 2-4 with a walk, using his amazing wheels to turn a slow chopper off the third baseman's glove into a double.
All of that is just one game. Unfortunately, the folks who set the roster and the lineup will use it as evidence that everything is hunky-dory as is. It seems like one good game can overrule 5 bad ones. But the team is winning, for now. Hopefully, Blackburn and Slowey will pick up the baton from Baker and shut down the Yankees. And I hope the Rangers, on their way to Chicago, will remember that they are awesome at scoring runs and blow the White Sox to bits.
Twins 14, Rangers 2
Rangers 1, Twins 0
Oh, so tired.
Baby crying. All night crying. Why is she crying?
Is she hungry? Does she need change? Is she gassy?
Or maybe she's upset that the Twins outscored the #1 offensive team in the Majors 20-3 over three games (allowing just 11 hits!), yet failed to earn a sweep. That certainly upset her daddy. You know I have a hard time losing well-pitched games, but when it's a first-rate pitcher like CC Sabathia or Dice-K, I can swallow it. For me, Vicente Padilla does not qualify, yet he's shut out the Twins twice this season. Argh!
Poor Scott Baker. Yesterday was the 3rd time in his last 8 starts that he went 7 or more IP allowing 1 or fewer runs and the Twins didn't win. With even a pittance of run support, his record could be 9-1 right now. What a drag to lose your perfect game/no-hitter/shutout all at once to a kid who's only been called up for the weekend. Still, what a marvelous season Baker's having: ERA of 3.26, WHIP of 1.09, 5 K for every BB. I guessed before the season began that he would prove to be the Twins' ace, and he's certainly filling that role (until an antsy LHP is recalled from AAA, anyway).
Little things matter so much in 1-0 games. The play that really bugged me (other than letting the count get to 3-2 on Taylor Teagarden) came in the bottom of the 6th. Denard Span led off with a walk, and Carlos Gomez was, sensibly, asked to bunt him over to 2nd. He popped the bunt up to the catcher, and Alexi Casilla followed with a sharp grounder right on the first base line that was fielded at the bag to start an inning-ending DP. Had Gomez successfully sacrificed, I suspect the first baseman would have been playing in (protecting against a possible bunt from Casilla), but a few steps off the line. With that defensive positioning, the exact same ground ball from Casilla likely would have found its way into the RF corner, easily scoring Span to tie the game and putting Casilla in scoring position for Mauer and Morneau.
My agent was about to file a grievance with the blogger's union to investigate the irrational continued use of Livan Hernandez in the rotation, Brian Bass in the bullpen and Gomez at the top of the lineup. Then Saturday night came along and turned my world upside down. Livan had allowed 12 ER on 19 H and 3 BB in just 8 IP over his first 2 starts vs. the Rangers, but he shut them down this weekend, allowing just 2 ER on 5 H and 1 BB in 7 IP. I couldn't have asked any more from Francisco Liriano (except quite a few more strikeouts, perhaps). Bass relieved him and had a 1-2-3 8th inning with a strikeout. And Gomez went 2-4 with a walk, using his amazing wheels to turn a slow chopper off the third baseman's glove into a double.
All of that is just one game. Unfortunately, the folks who set the roster and the lineup will use it as evidence that everything is hunky-dory as is. It seems like one good game can overrule 5 bad ones. But the team is winning, for now. Hopefully, Blackburn and Slowey will pick up the baton from Baker and shut down the Yankees. And I hope the Rangers, on their way to Chicago, will remember that they are awesome at scoring runs and blow the White Sox to bits.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Enough Already
Red Sox 18, Twins 5
We're working our way into a nice routine over here. Baby sleeps on Daddy's chest, Daddy watches the game on the laptop, Mommy takes a nap. Everybody wins!
Oh, except the Twins. They most certainly did not win.
Only the Red Sox win at Fenway Park, so I don't want to get too upset about Wednesday's outcome. The Twins had an opportunity to win the first 2 games of the series, and were in the last game until the 7th. They're playing very well, and they're quite close to being able to outplay the best in the league, but they're not quite there yet. Today's fiasco was the result of the very things I've been harping on for weeks, so there's no need to expound too much:
Livan Hernandez is the weak link in the rotation.
Boof Bonser or Brian Bass (or neither), but not both.
Denard Span belongs in the leadoff spot.
You can't give a good team extra outs.
It's amazing how frequently Boof is the victim of bizarre defensive miscues. On Wednesday, 2 of the 4 H he allowed were fly balls that Jason Kubel should have caught in RF. His (typically) ugly line might have looked quite different had those plays been made. However, part of being a good pitcher is picking up your defense, and Boof has shown no ability to do that all year.
In a way, I'm glad this sweep happened. It should wake the organization out of its winning-streak induced fog and remind them that they have yet to assemble the best possible team. When you're on a streak, you tend to skip shaving, wear the same undershirt, maintain every behavior that's been working. Above all, you don't change anything. That attitude will be fatal to 2nd half success. Now that the streak is over, I hope the Twins will finally take this opportunity to make the last few changes they need to be 3-4 games better than the White Sox after the All-Star break.
We're working our way into a nice routine over here. Baby sleeps on Daddy's chest, Daddy watches the game on the laptop, Mommy takes a nap. Everybody wins!
Oh, except the Twins. They most certainly did not win.
Only the Red Sox win at Fenway Park, so I don't want to get too upset about Wednesday's outcome. The Twins had an opportunity to win the first 2 games of the series, and were in the last game until the 7th. They're playing very well, and they're quite close to being able to outplay the best in the league, but they're not quite there yet. Today's fiasco was the result of the very things I've been harping on for weeks, so there's no need to expound too much:
Livan Hernandez is the weak link in the rotation.
Boof Bonser or Brian Bass (or neither), but not both.
Denard Span belongs in the leadoff spot.
You can't give a good team extra outs.
It's amazing how frequently Boof is the victim of bizarre defensive miscues. On Wednesday, 2 of the 4 H he allowed were fly balls that Jason Kubel should have caught in RF. His (typically) ugly line might have looked quite different had those plays been made. However, part of being a good pitcher is picking up your defense, and Boof has shown no ability to do that all year.
In a way, I'm glad this sweep happened. It should wake the organization out of its winning-streak induced fog and remind them that they have yet to assemble the best possible team. When you're on a streak, you tend to skip shaving, wear the same undershirt, maintain every behavior that's been working. Above all, you don't change anything. That attitude will be fatal to 2nd half success. Now that the streak is over, I hope the Twins will finally take this opportunity to make the last few changes they need to be 3-4 games better than the White Sox after the All-Star break.
Saturday, June 28, 2008
The Streak is Dead
Brewers 5, Twins 1
Oh well, the streak had to end some time, and I have to admit that it's sort of a relief that it's over. I've heard so many people saying, "Don't tinker with the lineup, it's all working right now." And it was - mostly. But as I pointed out earlier, the flaws in the current Twins roster will prevent them from being serious contenders, no matter how many wins they could string together against struggling NL teams. Now that the streak is over, I hope the front office will feel free to tinker away.
Look no further than the man on the mound tonight. This was your average Livan Hernandez game: 7 IP, 5 R, 4 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 5 K. Usually he'll allow a couple more hits and a couple fewer walks, but the resulting 5.14 ERA and 1.57 WHIP are pretty much right on the money. The Brewers had a terrific game plan against him tonight, exhibited from the first 3 batters: lay off the stuff on the fringes of the zone, and wait for something to tail back over the plate, going up the middle or the other way when you swing. Ricky Weeks drew a lead-off walk after falling behind 0-2 because he wouldn't chase out of the zone. JJ Hardy got a pitch to drive into left-center, Ryan Braun got one to drive into right. Just like that, the Twins were down 1-0.
In the 2nd, Mike Cameron drove a ball to the wall in right-center (despite his bat exploding in the process), and the Twins helped the Brewers out by trying to pick him off: he took 3rd when Livan's throw hit him and rolled into short CF. He was able to score though the next two hitters failed to get the ball out of the infield.
I've got to give Livan credit for adjusting his game plan after being smacked around in the 3rd. In that inning, he again allowed a lead-off walk, then a 1-out walk to Prince Fielder. Corey Hart drove a double to RF, scoring one. They intentionally walked Russell Branyan, then Bill Hall drove the first pitch he saw to the gap in right-center for a 2-RBI 2B. At that point, Livan had thrown 2.1 IP, allowing all his runs on 4 BB and 5 H (3 2B). From then on, he allowed only 2 H in 4.2 IP with 4 K. He started throwing his fastball inside more to the heavily right-handed lineup. I wish he'd been pitching like that out of the gate.
I think the game turned in the bottom of the 2nd, when the Twins had a golden opportunity to show themselves, the fans, and the Brewers that this was going to be another night of comebacks for them. After Jason Kubel drew a 1-out walk, Delmon Young promptly lined a single to right. Brian Buscher then worked the count to 3-1, got caught half-swinging at a pitch that was probably ball four, then struck out swinging at a pitch that was definitely ball four. Brendan Harris also battled to 3-2 before swinging and missing at ball four in the dirt.
What a different game it would have been had those two elected not to swing at those pitches! Manny Parra was already at 40 pitches after 2 IP - what if he were at 40 pitches with only one out in the 2nd, the bases loaded, having just walked in a run? I'm not saying that Gomez or Punto would have continued the inning based on the swings they had tonight, but I doubt Parra or his manager would have had the confidence to keep going through 7 IP. Psychologically, the lead wouldn't have seemed quite as big all night, especially knowing that Parra was vulnerable. Considering that Parra allowed 6 BB in his last start, it should have been part of the Twins' game plan to make him throw as many pitches as possible. It could have been 6 BB again tonight had Buscher and Harris been a bit more patient.
It was tough to expect a win tonight with Casilla and Cuddyer both suddenly out of the lineup with finger injuries. It sounds like Cuddyer's might be fairly serious, meaning a Span call-up might be in the offing. If that happens, I think he should be given the opportunity to supplant Gomez as Buscher has supplanted Mike Lamb. Just put him in the lineup, watch him play well, put him in again. On the bright side, Kubel's performance tonight vs. LHP (1-2, HR, 2 BB) should ensure that, even if he's not playing in the field, his bat should be in the lineup no matter from what hand the pitcher throws.
Anyway, now we can soberly look at the team not as a magical winning machine, but as a club that, while seriously contending, has some serious deficiencies to correct. Not hitting lefties very well, for example. The pieces are available to sell, the needs should be clear. Let's make some moves, Mr. Smith!
Oh well, the streak had to end some time, and I have to admit that it's sort of a relief that it's over. I've heard so many people saying, "Don't tinker with the lineup, it's all working right now." And it was - mostly. But as I pointed out earlier, the flaws in the current Twins roster will prevent them from being serious contenders, no matter how many wins they could string together against struggling NL teams. Now that the streak is over, I hope the front office will feel free to tinker away.
Look no further than the man on the mound tonight. This was your average Livan Hernandez game: 7 IP, 5 R, 4 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 5 K. Usually he'll allow a couple more hits and a couple fewer walks, but the resulting 5.14 ERA and 1.57 WHIP are pretty much right on the money. The Brewers had a terrific game plan against him tonight, exhibited from the first 3 batters: lay off the stuff on the fringes of the zone, and wait for something to tail back over the plate, going up the middle or the other way when you swing. Ricky Weeks drew a lead-off walk after falling behind 0-2 because he wouldn't chase out of the zone. JJ Hardy got a pitch to drive into left-center, Ryan Braun got one to drive into right. Just like that, the Twins were down 1-0.
In the 2nd, Mike Cameron drove a ball to the wall in right-center (despite his bat exploding in the process), and the Twins helped the Brewers out by trying to pick him off: he took 3rd when Livan's throw hit him and rolled into short CF. He was able to score though the next two hitters failed to get the ball out of the infield.
I've got to give Livan credit for adjusting his game plan after being smacked around in the 3rd. In that inning, he again allowed a lead-off walk, then a 1-out walk to Prince Fielder. Corey Hart drove a double to RF, scoring one. They intentionally walked Russell Branyan, then Bill Hall drove the first pitch he saw to the gap in right-center for a 2-RBI 2B. At that point, Livan had thrown 2.1 IP, allowing all his runs on 4 BB and 5 H (3 2B). From then on, he allowed only 2 H in 4.2 IP with 4 K. He started throwing his fastball inside more to the heavily right-handed lineup. I wish he'd been pitching like that out of the gate.
I think the game turned in the bottom of the 2nd, when the Twins had a golden opportunity to show themselves, the fans, and the Brewers that this was going to be another night of comebacks for them. After Jason Kubel drew a 1-out walk, Delmon Young promptly lined a single to right. Brian Buscher then worked the count to 3-1, got caught half-swinging at a pitch that was probably ball four, then struck out swinging at a pitch that was definitely ball four. Brendan Harris also battled to 3-2 before swinging and missing at ball four in the dirt.
What a different game it would have been had those two elected not to swing at those pitches! Manny Parra was already at 40 pitches after 2 IP - what if he were at 40 pitches with only one out in the 2nd, the bases loaded, having just walked in a run? I'm not saying that Gomez or Punto would have continued the inning based on the swings they had tonight, but I doubt Parra or his manager would have had the confidence to keep going through 7 IP. Psychologically, the lead wouldn't have seemed quite as big all night, especially knowing that Parra was vulnerable. Considering that Parra allowed 6 BB in his last start, it should have been part of the Twins' game plan to make him throw as many pitches as possible. It could have been 6 BB again tonight had Buscher and Harris been a bit more patient.
It was tough to expect a win tonight with Casilla and Cuddyer both suddenly out of the lineup with finger injuries. It sounds like Cuddyer's might be fairly serious, meaning a Span call-up might be in the offing. If that happens, I think he should be given the opportunity to supplant Gomez as Buscher has supplanted Mike Lamb. Just put him in the lineup, watch him play well, put him in again. On the bright side, Kubel's performance tonight vs. LHP (1-2, HR, 2 BB) should ensure that, even if he's not playing in the field, his bat should be in the lineup no matter from what hand the pitcher throws.
Anyway, now we can soberly look at the team not as a magical winning machine, but as a club that, while seriously contending, has some serious deficiencies to correct. Not hitting lefties very well, for example. The pieces are available to sell, the needs should be clear. Let's make some moves, Mr. Smith!
Sunday, June 22, 2008
From Modest Beginnings Come Big Innings
Twins 7, Diamondbacks 2
Twins 6, Diamondbacks 1
Twins 5, Diamondbacks 3
The Diamondbacks' pitchers did a great job of shutting down the Twins' offense in 21 of 24 IP. In the other 3, the Twins enjoyed timely hitting as fine as anything the White Sox did two weeks ago (minus the HRs). This makes 5 straight games in which the Twins have scored 4 or more runs in a single inning, nearly batting around as they do. It's beginning to feel like it's just a matter of time before everything starts dropping in, and that's a very good feeling for a team to take onto the field against pitchers the likes of Randy Johnson and Brandon Webb (and, coming this Tuesday, Jake Peavy). It's brought them all the way back from their atrocious last road trip and positioned them to once again compete for the division.
I didn't think it accurate to see in some of the write-ups that Randy Johnson got "knocked around" on Friday. That one bad inning began with an infield hit from Delmon Young, followed by a drive off the baggy from Brendan Harris for a double. Matt Macri chopped a 2-run single up the middle that seemed to take forever to get into CF. After Carlos Gomez flied out, Alexi Casilla delivered a bunt single, Macri hustling to 3rd on an errant throw from the catcher. Joe Mauer hit a SF to left, Casilla taking second on a close play at the plate. Justin Morneau grounded the next pitch into LF for an RBI single, and moved to 2nd on a close play at the plate. Craig Monroe capped the rally with a 1st-pitch HR just over the wall in left-center. 6 R on 6 H, but only 2 balls really hit hard. A lot of the hits Johnson gave up on Friday were the result of curious defensive placement - SS Stephen Drew played deep in the hole vs. most righties, and several of them took advantage by grounding singles up the middle that would have been routine outs given normal positioning.
Saturday night's big rally began with a well-placed bunt single by Mauer (despite a valiant fielding attempt from brand-new 3B Augie Ojeda). Morneau hooked a 1-2 slider into the RF corner for an RBI double, then moved to third when the short-hop throw from the cutoff man bounced away from the catcher. With the infield in, Michael Cuddyer grounded to short, then Jason Kubel walked on 5 pitches. Delmon Young went with a fastball on the outer half and drove an RBI single to RF, then he and Kubel moved up a base on a wild pitch. Brian Buscher worked ahead in the count, then drove a ball to the base of the wall in LF, scoring 2. Harris immediately grounded a pitch past the diving 1B, driving in Buscher. Gomez struck out on 4 pitches, none of which were in the strike zone. Casilla took the first 3 pitches for balls, then grounded the 3-2 pitch up the middle to drive in the 6th run. It looked to me like the only bad pitch of the inning was the double to Buscher - everything else was nice hitting by the Twins.
The fifth inning today began with a ground-ball single to CF by Kubel. Young followed with a fly to deep left that was blessedly lost in the day-game roof and fell for a double. Buscher took advantage by grounding a 2-RBI single up the middle. Harris grounded the 1st pitch he saw through the left side for a single. Gomez laid down a perfect Sac bunt, setting up Casilla for another 2-RBI grounder up the middle. Mauer reached on an error by the shortstop, sending Casilla to 3rd. He scored on a SF by Morneau - Mauer was nailed at 2nd trying to tag to end the inning.
Besides timely hitting from Harris, Casilla, Macri/Buscher, Morneau and Young, these innings had something else in common - they all had the Twins aggressively flying around the bases, forcing the D-backs into poor throws, and taking advantage by claiming extra bases. (Unfortunately, they all had an out from Gomez in the middle of them as well, though at least on Sunday it was productive.) They were, quite simply, the embodiment of how the Twins have managed to score the 4th-most runs in the AL while being last in HRs and 8th in OPS: put the ball in play, run the bases. This week, it's worked.
The other facet of this is the pitching. Twins pitchers have now delivered 9 consecutive quality starts since Livan Hernandez was last blown to bits in Cleveland. In this series, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, and Hernandez combined for 20 IP, 3 ER, 19 H, 2 BB, 15 K. The bullpen allowed 0 ER and just 4 base runners in its 7 IP. For the home stand, the starters averaged 6.2 IP, 1.76 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Washington and Arizona are, admittedly, not the hottest teams in the NL right now, but this result has to be a huge confidence boost for a young team. With strong contributions from mid-season call-ups beginning to supplant some of the veterans signed during the off-season, this home sweep vs. the NL is strangely reminiscent of 2 summers ago...
Twins 6, Diamondbacks 1
Twins 5, Diamondbacks 3
The Diamondbacks' pitchers did a great job of shutting down the Twins' offense in 21 of 24 IP. In the other 3, the Twins enjoyed timely hitting as fine as anything the White Sox did two weeks ago (minus the HRs). This makes 5 straight games in which the Twins have scored 4 or more runs in a single inning, nearly batting around as they do. It's beginning to feel like it's just a matter of time before everything starts dropping in, and that's a very good feeling for a team to take onto the field against pitchers the likes of Randy Johnson and Brandon Webb (and, coming this Tuesday, Jake Peavy). It's brought them all the way back from their atrocious last road trip and positioned them to once again compete for the division.
I didn't think it accurate to see in some of the write-ups that Randy Johnson got "knocked around" on Friday. That one bad inning began with an infield hit from Delmon Young, followed by a drive off the baggy from Brendan Harris for a double. Matt Macri chopped a 2-run single up the middle that seemed to take forever to get into CF. After Carlos Gomez flied out, Alexi Casilla delivered a bunt single, Macri hustling to 3rd on an errant throw from the catcher. Joe Mauer hit a SF to left, Casilla taking second on a close play at the plate. Justin Morneau grounded the next pitch into LF for an RBI single, and moved to 2nd on a close play at the plate. Craig Monroe capped the rally with a 1st-pitch HR just over the wall in left-center. 6 R on 6 H, but only 2 balls really hit hard. A lot of the hits Johnson gave up on Friday were the result of curious defensive placement - SS Stephen Drew played deep in the hole vs. most righties, and several of them took advantage by grounding singles up the middle that would have been routine outs given normal positioning.
Saturday night's big rally began with a well-placed bunt single by Mauer (despite a valiant fielding attempt from brand-new 3B Augie Ojeda). Morneau hooked a 1-2 slider into the RF corner for an RBI double, then moved to third when the short-hop throw from the cutoff man bounced away from the catcher. With the infield in, Michael Cuddyer grounded to short, then Jason Kubel walked on 5 pitches. Delmon Young went with a fastball on the outer half and drove an RBI single to RF, then he and Kubel moved up a base on a wild pitch. Brian Buscher worked ahead in the count, then drove a ball to the base of the wall in LF, scoring 2. Harris immediately grounded a pitch past the diving 1B, driving in Buscher. Gomez struck out on 4 pitches, none of which were in the strike zone. Casilla took the first 3 pitches for balls, then grounded the 3-2 pitch up the middle to drive in the 6th run. It looked to me like the only bad pitch of the inning was the double to Buscher - everything else was nice hitting by the Twins.
The fifth inning today began with a ground-ball single to CF by Kubel. Young followed with a fly to deep left that was blessedly lost in the day-game roof and fell for a double. Buscher took advantage by grounding a 2-RBI single up the middle. Harris grounded the 1st pitch he saw through the left side for a single. Gomez laid down a perfect Sac bunt, setting up Casilla for another 2-RBI grounder up the middle. Mauer reached on an error by the shortstop, sending Casilla to 3rd. He scored on a SF by Morneau - Mauer was nailed at 2nd trying to tag to end the inning.
Besides timely hitting from Harris, Casilla, Macri/Buscher, Morneau and Young, these innings had something else in common - they all had the Twins aggressively flying around the bases, forcing the D-backs into poor throws, and taking advantage by claiming extra bases. (Unfortunately, they all had an out from Gomez in the middle of them as well, though at least on Sunday it was productive.) They were, quite simply, the embodiment of how the Twins have managed to score the 4th-most runs in the AL while being last in HRs and 8th in OPS: put the ball in play, run the bases. This week, it's worked.
The other facet of this is the pitching. Twins pitchers have now delivered 9 consecutive quality starts since Livan Hernandez was last blown to bits in Cleveland. In this series, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, and Hernandez combined for 20 IP, 3 ER, 19 H, 2 BB, 15 K. The bullpen allowed 0 ER and just 4 base runners in its 7 IP. For the home stand, the starters averaged 6.2 IP, 1.76 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Washington and Arizona are, admittedly, not the hottest teams in the NL right now, but this result has to be a huge confidence boost for a young team. With strong contributions from mid-season call-ups beginning to supplant some of the veterans signed during the off-season, this home sweep vs. the NL is strangely reminiscent of 2 summers ago...
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Sweep Relief
Twins 2, Nationals 1
Twins 11, Nationals 2
Twins 9, Nationals 3
I'm a little off my schedule this week - I was supposed to have reconstructive knee surgery on Wednesday afternoon, but it was postponed due to an electrical problem at the hospital. My mom flew in to help me in my recovery, and since she is also a big Twins fan, we sat down to enjoy the rest of the game when we got home after dinner, then watched the Thursday finale together before heading off to my rescheduled surgery. I was in the hospital most of the day yesterday, deciding whether my pain was manageable enough to send me home (it was). I suspect I may have the time to blog a little more often in the coming weeks.
Coming home from a tough road trip, isn't it great to be able to face the worst team in the NL? You know you've got a chance for a sweep when Livan Hernandez can hold your opponent to 1 ER on 5 H in 7 IP. He needed just 77 pitches to reach that point, but Gardy perhaps remembered how quickly Livan's last good start (vs. CO) got out of hand in the late innings, and wisely turned the game over to Guerrier and Nathan. John Lannan pitched a very strong game for the Nationals, allowing just 2 R on the huge homer to Morneau. I hope Mauer and Morneau find their way into the All-Star game starting lineup - they have certainly been wonderfully consistent about getting on base and driving in runs.
Kevin Slowey delivered another quality start, despite not having his best stuff. He allowed another HR, but it was a solo shot, and otherwise he was able to work out the jams he got himself into. After walking the leadoff man in the 7th, Jesse Crain came in and loaded the bases with a BB and HBP, but also picked up 2 K and escaped unscathed. Then the Twins offense went off on the Nats' bullpen, lighting up 3 relievers for 8 ER on 8 H and 4 BB. There were bunt hits, triples, SFs, 2-out hits and walks. With Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer playing much better in June, the offense is very good when either Gomez or Casilla get on. It should be noted that Boof Bonser pitched the 9th inning, and, of course, allowed a run.
In the finale, it was great to see Gardy just let Perkins go for 8 IP. He wasn't having the greatest game, but the team built him a huge lead, so it wasn't too risky leaving him in there so long. I think it benefits him to be out there on the mound learning how to work with OK stuff and tiredness. He got hit pretty hard - Cuddyer made a couple of nice catches on liners to keep things under control, and he still missed his spots a lot, but I've got to think he's only going to get better. The Twins' 3-6 hitters went 7-15 with 3 BB and 7 R. Buscher is making a strong contribution in his first few games - I don't know whether the Twins will go back to Lamb or try to trade him. I like that Casilla, even though he's not getting hits the last few games, is still having productive ABs - drawing a walk, laying down a sacrifice, hitting a SF.
Span vs. Gomez
Denard Span has come back from his broken finger and picked up right where he left off at Rochester. In his first 3 games back he's gone 8-13 with 3 2B and 3 BB. His OPS continues to be in the high .900s. Gomez, meanwhile, has been quietly below average. In the month of June, he's hitting just .259/.292/.329 with 1 SB in 4 attempts. He's made the catches in CF, but made 2 awful throws over the cutoff man in Thursday's game, and has been bobbling the ball a lot recently even though he hasn't always been charged with an error. This month he has 4 BB and 18 K.
I'm hoping that, over the next week, Span will continue to produce at AAA, and the Twins' young rotation will continue to carry the team through the 6th inning every night. It's just about time to go down to 11 pitchers, cutting ties with Bonser. Once the Twins are ready to have 5 bench players again, I think Span deserves his shot.
Twins 11, Nationals 2
Twins 9, Nationals 3
I'm a little off my schedule this week - I was supposed to have reconstructive knee surgery on Wednesday afternoon, but it was postponed due to an electrical problem at the hospital. My mom flew in to help me in my recovery, and since she is also a big Twins fan, we sat down to enjoy the rest of the game when we got home after dinner, then watched the Thursday finale together before heading off to my rescheduled surgery. I was in the hospital most of the day yesterday, deciding whether my pain was manageable enough to send me home (it was). I suspect I may have the time to blog a little more often in the coming weeks.
Coming home from a tough road trip, isn't it great to be able to face the worst team in the NL? You know you've got a chance for a sweep when Livan Hernandez can hold your opponent to 1 ER on 5 H in 7 IP. He needed just 77 pitches to reach that point, but Gardy perhaps remembered how quickly Livan's last good start (vs. CO) got out of hand in the late innings, and wisely turned the game over to Guerrier and Nathan. John Lannan pitched a very strong game for the Nationals, allowing just 2 R on the huge homer to Morneau. I hope Mauer and Morneau find their way into the All-Star game starting lineup - they have certainly been wonderfully consistent about getting on base and driving in runs.
Kevin Slowey delivered another quality start, despite not having his best stuff. He allowed another HR, but it was a solo shot, and otherwise he was able to work out the jams he got himself into. After walking the leadoff man in the 7th, Jesse Crain came in and loaded the bases with a BB and HBP, but also picked up 2 K and escaped unscathed. Then the Twins offense went off on the Nats' bullpen, lighting up 3 relievers for 8 ER on 8 H and 4 BB. There were bunt hits, triples, SFs, 2-out hits and walks. With Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer playing much better in June, the offense is very good when either Gomez or Casilla get on. It should be noted that Boof Bonser pitched the 9th inning, and, of course, allowed a run.
In the finale, it was great to see Gardy just let Perkins go for 8 IP. He wasn't having the greatest game, but the team built him a huge lead, so it wasn't too risky leaving him in there so long. I think it benefits him to be out there on the mound learning how to work with OK stuff and tiredness. He got hit pretty hard - Cuddyer made a couple of nice catches on liners to keep things under control, and he still missed his spots a lot, but I've got to think he's only going to get better. The Twins' 3-6 hitters went 7-15 with 3 BB and 7 R. Buscher is making a strong contribution in his first few games - I don't know whether the Twins will go back to Lamb or try to trade him. I like that Casilla, even though he's not getting hits the last few games, is still having productive ABs - drawing a walk, laying down a sacrifice, hitting a SF.
Span vs. Gomez
Denard Span has come back from his broken finger and picked up right where he left off at Rochester. In his first 3 games back he's gone 8-13 with 3 2B and 3 BB. His OPS continues to be in the high .900s. Gomez, meanwhile, has been quietly below average. In the month of June, he's hitting just .259/.292/.329 with 1 SB in 4 attempts. He's made the catches in CF, but made 2 awful throws over the cutoff man in Thursday's game, and has been bobbling the ball a lot recently even though he hasn't always been charged with an error. This month he has 4 BB and 18 K.
I'm hoping that, over the next week, Span will continue to produce at AAA, and the Twins' young rotation will continue to carry the team through the 6th inning every night. It's just about time to go down to 11 pitchers, cutting ties with Bonser. Once the Twins are ready to have 5 bench players again, I think Span deserves his shot.
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Moral Victories
Indians 1, Twins 0
Twins 8, Indians 5
Indians 12, Twins 2
Another Thursday, another series lost. But I don't feel too bad about this one. It's hard to lose 1-0 games, but when it's the guy who was the best pitcher in the league last year who shuts you out, well, that's understandable. Obviously, the base-running was terrible, but when Sabathia is that on, you're just not going to win. It's when Vicente Padilla throws a shutout that I get upset. Besides, the valiant start from Scott Baker was precisely what the Twins needed, breaking a string of 11 straight games without a quality start.
I still quibble a bit with the sequence to Garko in the 1st inning: after getting ahead 0-2, Mauer and Baker tried to get him to chase consecutive sliders off the plate (yes!). Garko laid off, evening the count. At that point, I would have liked to have seen them bust him in, keep him thinking the ball might come inside. They went back outside, and even though the ball was 4 inches off the plate, he leaned out and lined it up the middle for the game's only RBI.
Still, a terrific effort from Baker, backed up nicely by Nick Blackburn on Wednesday. The Twins' most consistent starter so far this season, Blackburn showed that Friday's drubbing at the hands of the White Sox was a fluke. Boof Bonser did not inspire confidence out of the 'pen, and Gardy had to bring Reyes in to try to bail him out. Grady Sizemore was not fooled when Reyes tried to slip a breaking ball over the inside corner, and belted a 3-run HR (the first off Reyes this season) to bring the Tribe back within 1. Luckily, Jason Kubel, Justin Morneau, and next-generation piranhas Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla did enough offensively to keep the Twins in front. I must say, it was particularly gratifying to light up Paul Byrd - I've always been irritated that the Twins couldn't be patient enough to knock him around.
The Indians were certainly patient enough to knock around Livan Hernandez on Thursday, proving that his recent string of awful starts (5 GS, 24.1 IP, 11.20 ERA, 2.49 WHIP, 4 HR) is most definitely not a fluke. If the Twins had had the sense to deal him after his start in Colorado, they might have gotten a quality prospect or two, in addition to some extra payroll space. Now, if someone were to offer a Single A bench-warmer and a case of beer, I'd jump at the chance to unload Livan for some kind of return.
But the bad pitching didn't stop there. After Brian Bass doused the situation Livan left in the 4th with a quick DP and flyout, he proceeded to allow 3 ER on 2 H, 2 BB and a HBP while recording just 2 outs in the 5th before being relieved by Craig Breslow (who is, so far, a good pitcher). Boof followed Breslow and allowed 2 ER on 4 H in his inning, although he did strike out the side. Moral victories.
The Twins should have had the stones to shake up their roster before the road trip started, but I guess they just wanted to see which of their option-less pitchers still had it in them to contribute. In that respect, this was a productive series. With Juan Rincon designated for assignment earlier in the day, the Twins got to look at their three worst pitchers in Thursday night's game. All have been on a downward trajectory as bad as Rincon's, all needed to prove that they could eat innings and keep the team in the game, and they all struggled. Any of them (all of them?) could be taken off the 25-man roster at this point and make the team better.
The Twins finally have an off-day on Monday, the day Blackburn should start. Francisco Liriano has put together 3 straight outings in which his K/9 was greater than 9.00, and his control has been much better. He could hardly do worse than Livan. His next start in Rochester will be on Sunday. The Twins should skip Livan's turn in the rotation on Tuesday, pitch Blackburn on 5 days rest instead, then send out Slowey, Perkins and Baker on their normal rest. That would allow Liriano to start at home a week from Saturday. No "seasoned" veterans in the rotation, but when your veteran is as bad as Livan, I'll take the rookies. I would also send Bass down and recall Bobby Korecky.
Hopefully, those and others moves are coming soon!
Twins 8, Indians 5
Indians 12, Twins 2
Another Thursday, another series lost. But I don't feel too bad about this one. It's hard to lose 1-0 games, but when it's the guy who was the best pitcher in the league last year who shuts you out, well, that's understandable. Obviously, the base-running was terrible, but when Sabathia is that on, you're just not going to win. It's when Vicente Padilla throws a shutout that I get upset. Besides, the valiant start from Scott Baker was precisely what the Twins needed, breaking a string of 11 straight games without a quality start.
I still quibble a bit with the sequence to Garko in the 1st inning: after getting ahead 0-2, Mauer and Baker tried to get him to chase consecutive sliders off the plate (yes!). Garko laid off, evening the count. At that point, I would have liked to have seen them bust him in, keep him thinking the ball might come inside. They went back outside, and even though the ball was 4 inches off the plate, he leaned out and lined it up the middle for the game's only RBI.
Still, a terrific effort from Baker, backed up nicely by Nick Blackburn on Wednesday. The Twins' most consistent starter so far this season, Blackburn showed that Friday's drubbing at the hands of the White Sox was a fluke. Boof Bonser did not inspire confidence out of the 'pen, and Gardy had to bring Reyes in to try to bail him out. Grady Sizemore was not fooled when Reyes tried to slip a breaking ball over the inside corner, and belted a 3-run HR (the first off Reyes this season) to bring the Tribe back within 1. Luckily, Jason Kubel, Justin Morneau, and next-generation piranhas Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla did enough offensively to keep the Twins in front. I must say, it was particularly gratifying to light up Paul Byrd - I've always been irritated that the Twins couldn't be patient enough to knock him around.
The Indians were certainly patient enough to knock around Livan Hernandez on Thursday, proving that his recent string of awful starts (5 GS, 24.1 IP, 11.20 ERA, 2.49 WHIP, 4 HR) is most definitely not a fluke. If the Twins had had the sense to deal him after his start in Colorado, they might have gotten a quality prospect or two, in addition to some extra payroll space. Now, if someone were to offer a Single A bench-warmer and a case of beer, I'd jump at the chance to unload Livan for some kind of return.
But the bad pitching didn't stop there. After Brian Bass doused the situation Livan left in the 4th with a quick DP and flyout, he proceeded to allow 3 ER on 2 H, 2 BB and a HBP while recording just 2 outs in the 5th before being relieved by Craig Breslow (who is, so far, a good pitcher). Boof followed Breslow and allowed 2 ER on 4 H in his inning, although he did strike out the side. Moral victories.
The Twins should have had the stones to shake up their roster before the road trip started, but I guess they just wanted to see which of their option-less pitchers still had it in them to contribute. In that respect, this was a productive series. With Juan Rincon designated for assignment earlier in the day, the Twins got to look at their three worst pitchers in Thursday night's game. All have been on a downward trajectory as bad as Rincon's, all needed to prove that they could eat innings and keep the team in the game, and they all struggled. Any of them (all of them?) could be taken off the 25-man roster at this point and make the team better.
The Twins finally have an off-day on Monday, the day Blackburn should start. Francisco Liriano has put together 3 straight outings in which his K/9 was greater than 9.00, and his control has been much better. He could hardly do worse than Livan. His next start in Rochester will be on Sunday. The Twins should skip Livan's turn in the rotation on Tuesday, pitch Blackburn on 5 days rest instead, then send out Slowey, Perkins and Baker on their normal rest. That would allow Liriano to start at home a week from Saturday. No "seasoned" veterans in the rotation, but when your veteran is as bad as Livan, I'll take the rookies. I would also send Bass down and recall Bobby Korecky.
Hopefully, those and others moves are coming soon!
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Yankess Go Home
Yankees 6, Twins 5
Yankees 7, Twins 6 (12 Innings)
Twins 5, Yankees 1
Twins 6, Yankees 5
I guess we shouldn't be surprised that two approximately .500 teams split a 4-game series. But as each Yankee came to the plate for the first time on Friday night, and the broadcasters reported that they all had .320 career BAs vs. the Twins, it accentuated what an accomplishment it is for the Twins to not lose a series to the Yanks, even if it was at home. The Twins performed quite well, overall, and had Nick Punto fielded that grounder in the 3rd inning on Saturday, it might have been a 3-1 series win for the Twins.
Glen Perkins simply didn't have it on Friday night. He couldn't locate his pitches, and not in the safe, "Oh well, I walked him" way, but in the "I fell behind and then threw a strike that was up and over the plate, so I gave up 5 ER in 4 IP with a 3.00 WHIP" way. This does not concern me. He was so good in his first 4 starts, anybody can have one bad one, especially a young starter like Perkins. If he keeps throwing good games 80% of the time, I can't complain.
Boof Bonser wasn't awful in his last start. Had his defense been perfect, he might have had an opportunity to finish the 6th inning and get a quality start. However, with 3 BB and only 2 K in 5+ IP, it certainly wasn't enough to stave off his demotion. Hopefully he'll be able to let it go a little more from the 'pen, and his K/9 totals can work their way up.
The biggest surprise of Blackburn's start was the 3 BB - goes to show what a patient team the Yanks can be. Still, he looked well on his way to another quality start before he was hit in the nose by a line drive. Looks like he'll be OK for Friday in Chicago.
On Monday, the Twins won once again in spite of Livan Hernandez. He gave up double-digit hits again in 6+ IP, and his season ERA is fast-approaching 5.00. If Francisco Liriano continues to perform well in AAA, it should become apparent very soon that the Twins will be better off with him in the rotation than Livan.
The bullpen performed brilliantly under considerable duress. In 19.2 IP (almost 5 IP/game!), they allowed just 3 ER on 19 H and 4 BB for a 1.17 WHIP. Craig Breslow had an impressive Twins debut, striking out 3 in 1.2 perfect innings. Joe Nathan pitched 3 consecutive days and did not collapse. Word is the bullpen may expand to 13 members on Thursday when Scott Baker returns from the DL. I don't think that's necessary, especially if the starters resume their recent habit of pitching deep into games.
The defense made just one error in the series. Too bad it proved to be so costly.
The Twins offense continued to carry the team, scoring 5 or more runs in each game. Michael Cuddyer led the way, going 9-18 with a 2B, 3B, HR and 6 RBI. Delmon Young was right behind him, going 8-18 with 4 2B and 4 RBI. Alexi Casilla continued to produce from the #2 spot, going 5-15 with 4 R, 3 RBI and 3 BB. Joe Mauer finally broke his HR drought. The only part of the lineup that disappointed was Carlos Gomez, who went 3-20 with 6 K, and only 1 R and 1 RBI. Hopefully he can shake it off and get back to kicking ass against the Orioles.
Yankees 7, Twins 6 (12 Innings)
Twins 5, Yankees 1
Twins 6, Yankees 5
I guess we shouldn't be surprised that two approximately .500 teams split a 4-game series. But as each Yankee came to the plate for the first time on Friday night, and the broadcasters reported that they all had .320 career BAs vs. the Twins, it accentuated what an accomplishment it is for the Twins to not lose a series to the Yanks, even if it was at home. The Twins performed quite well, overall, and had Nick Punto fielded that grounder in the 3rd inning on Saturday, it might have been a 3-1 series win for the Twins.
Glen Perkins simply didn't have it on Friday night. He couldn't locate his pitches, and not in the safe, "Oh well, I walked him" way, but in the "I fell behind and then threw a strike that was up and over the plate, so I gave up 5 ER in 4 IP with a 3.00 WHIP" way. This does not concern me. He was so good in his first 4 starts, anybody can have one bad one, especially a young starter like Perkins. If he keeps throwing good games 80% of the time, I can't complain.
Boof Bonser wasn't awful in his last start. Had his defense been perfect, he might have had an opportunity to finish the 6th inning and get a quality start. However, with 3 BB and only 2 K in 5+ IP, it certainly wasn't enough to stave off his demotion. Hopefully he'll be able to let it go a little more from the 'pen, and his K/9 totals can work their way up.
The biggest surprise of Blackburn's start was the 3 BB - goes to show what a patient team the Yanks can be. Still, he looked well on his way to another quality start before he was hit in the nose by a line drive. Looks like he'll be OK for Friday in Chicago.
On Monday, the Twins won once again in spite of Livan Hernandez. He gave up double-digit hits again in 6+ IP, and his season ERA is fast-approaching 5.00. If Francisco Liriano continues to perform well in AAA, it should become apparent very soon that the Twins will be better off with him in the rotation than Livan.
The bullpen performed brilliantly under considerable duress. In 19.2 IP (almost 5 IP/game!), they allowed just 3 ER on 19 H and 4 BB for a 1.17 WHIP. Craig Breslow had an impressive Twins debut, striking out 3 in 1.2 perfect innings. Joe Nathan pitched 3 consecutive days and did not collapse. Word is the bullpen may expand to 13 members on Thursday when Scott Baker returns from the DL. I don't think that's necessary, especially if the starters resume their recent habit of pitching deep into games.
The defense made just one error in the series. Too bad it proved to be so costly.
The Twins offense continued to carry the team, scoring 5 or more runs in each game. Michael Cuddyer led the way, going 9-18 with a 2B, 3B, HR and 6 RBI. Delmon Young was right behind him, going 8-18 with 4 2B and 4 RBI. Alexi Casilla continued to produce from the #2 spot, going 5-15 with 4 R, 3 RBI and 3 BB. Joe Mauer finally broke his HR drought. The only part of the lineup that disappointed was Carlos Gomez, who went 3-20 with 6 K, and only 1 R and 1 RBI. Hopefully he can shake it off and get back to kicking ass against the Orioles.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Mile Low
Twins 4, Rockies 2
Rockies 3, Twins 2
Rockies 6, Twins 2
My wife and I were furiously working on curtains for the nursery this weekend, so I didn't get to watch any of the Twins/Rockies "action" after Friday night. My condolences to all the poor bastards who did. How excruciating to see so many men left on base, while quality pitching was being wasted. It's amazing to me that these two teams combined for just 19 runs in 3 games. Neither one is playing very well right now.
The Twins went 3 for 8 with runners in scoring position on Friday (+2 SF). Backed by Nick Blackburn's strongest start in almost a month (7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 5 K), decent relief pitching (OK except for the walks) and a Kamikaze catch from Gomez to end the game (I never said he couldn't go get it out there!), they came away with a win.
I was peeking at the scoreboard every now and then on Saturday. "Wait a minute," I thought, "is that Livan Hernandez with a no-hitter into the 6th inning? The Rockies must be in worse shape than I thought!" Amazing how quickly that 0 R on 0 H turned into 3 R on 8 H, huh? Still, given his typical run support, that should have been win number 7 for Livan. (Anybody want him?) It should be noted that the Rockies started each of their last 3 innings of this game with XBH - all of those guys scored. The Twins' offense managed just 2 R despite putting 12 men on base, going 1 for 7 with men in scoring position and stranding 9.
On Sunday, the Twins began each of their first 2 innings of batting with XBH, and had a 1-out triple in the 3rd, but none of them scored. 0 for 8 with RISP right there. For the game, they went 1 for 12. Kevin Slowey came one out short of a Quality Start, but allowed the last 4 batters to reach (after allowing only 4 to reach in the first 5.2 IP). Once again, the penultimate hitter ground out a long AB (10-pitch walk to Brad Hawpe) - maybe something to watch out for in the future.
The best news of the weekend came from Delmon Young, who doubled his season XBH total from 4 to 8, raising his season line to .287/.328/.348. A couple more series like that, and maybe we can all relax about his power potential.
Rockies 3, Twins 2
Rockies 6, Twins 2
My wife and I were furiously working on curtains for the nursery this weekend, so I didn't get to watch any of the Twins/Rockies "action" after Friday night. My condolences to all the poor bastards who did. How excruciating to see so many men left on base, while quality pitching was being wasted. It's amazing to me that these two teams combined for just 19 runs in 3 games. Neither one is playing very well right now.
The Twins went 3 for 8 with runners in scoring position on Friday (+2 SF). Backed by Nick Blackburn's strongest start in almost a month (7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 5 K), decent relief pitching (OK except for the walks) and a Kamikaze catch from Gomez to end the game (I never said he couldn't go get it out there!), they came away with a win.
I was peeking at the scoreboard every now and then on Saturday. "Wait a minute," I thought, "is that Livan Hernandez with a no-hitter into the 6th inning? The Rockies must be in worse shape than I thought!" Amazing how quickly that 0 R on 0 H turned into 3 R on 8 H, huh? Still, given his typical run support, that should have been win number 7 for Livan. (Anybody want him?) It should be noted that the Rockies started each of their last 3 innings of this game with XBH - all of those guys scored. The Twins' offense managed just 2 R despite putting 12 men on base, going 1 for 7 with men in scoring position and stranding 9.
On Sunday, the Twins began each of their first 2 innings of batting with XBH, and had a 1-out triple in the 3rd, but none of them scored. 0 for 8 with RISP right there. For the game, they went 1 for 12. Kevin Slowey came one out short of a Quality Start, but allowed the last 4 batters to reach (after allowing only 4 to reach in the first 5.2 IP). Once again, the penultimate hitter ground out a long AB (10-pitch walk to Brad Hawpe) - maybe something to watch out for in the future.
The best news of the weekend came from Delmon Young, who doubled his season XBH total from 4 to 8, raising his season line to .287/.328/.348. A couple more series like that, and maybe we can all relax about his power potential.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Like Magic
Twins 7, Red Sox 3
Looking at the scoreboard, one might think that the Twins really beat up the Red Sox tonight, that Livan Hernandez recovered from a shaky first inning to baffle them the rest of the way.
Not exactly.
True, he gave up all 3 runs on 4 hits in the 1st, then scattered 6 hits and a walk over the remaining 5 IP, earning yet another quality start. But in the 2nd and 3rd innings, sandwiched around the 2 hits and a walk he actually gave up, were 4 balls absolutely scorched right at people: Morneau made a diving stop on Sean Casey, Dustin Pedroia's liner landed right in Livan's glove, Manny Ramirez hit a liner to deep CF that got to Gomez in about 2 seconds, and Varitek ended the 3rd with a liner to deep left. Boston swung the bats well enough to have 4 more hits off Livan, and heaven knows how many more runs would have resulted.
But, at the end of the day, he's tied for he AL lead in wins at 6-1, and his 3.90 ERA looks pretty nice.
Anybody want him?
Juan Rincon did a nice job in relief, allowing just a walk in 2 IP. He was aided by the very special catch Cuddyer made in right field - Pedroia's liner bounced off Micheal's glove, the top of his head, the bill of his cap, and back into his glove. (Pedroia had to be shaking his head after this game.)
I loved the offensive approach vs. Clay Buchholz. He's been struggling with his control, and the Twins decided not to be too aggressive with him. Sure enough, he rewarded their patience with 5 BB in 4.1 IP. Another fine game for Craig Monroe (2 RBI 2B and 2 BB) despite a K - we may never get to see Jason Kubel again. Delmon Young had 2 H and 2 RBI (despite a K). Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer went 5/10 with 2 BB and 5 R.
Wins like this are exciting, and very encouraging, but I'm not sure winning is sustainable with the overall quality of play of the Twins right now. Livan is very hittable, the offense doesn't hit a lot of XBH, doesn't walk enough, strikes out too much (especially Monroe, Young, Harris and Gomez). I hope this is apparent to Bill Smith, and that he intends to use some of the organization's resources to upgrade various positions as the season moves along.
Span vs. Gomez
Gomez went 1 for 4, and his hit was just like the one from Friday - knee-high on the outside corner, driven into RF. Love it. 2 more K, though, giving him 37 on the season, 4th in the AL. The company he keeps in the top 10 are all swing for the fences guys like Jim Thome, Richie Sexson, and Jack Cust. Since his magical Cycle night in Chicago, he's reached base 6 times in 23 PA (.261 OBP) and struck out 8 times.
Meanwhile, every night I check the Red Wings box score, and every night, Denard Span has gotten on base at least once. Last night, he had his best night of the year, going 3-5 with a 2B and HR. That raised his line to .324/.425/.419, an .844 OPS. If the team really prefers Gomez for 2008, then they need to start shopping Span - with those numbers, he should be worth a decent IF prospect.
Looking at the scoreboard, one might think that the Twins really beat up the Red Sox tonight, that Livan Hernandez recovered from a shaky first inning to baffle them the rest of the way.
Not exactly.
True, he gave up all 3 runs on 4 hits in the 1st, then scattered 6 hits and a walk over the remaining 5 IP, earning yet another quality start. But in the 2nd and 3rd innings, sandwiched around the 2 hits and a walk he actually gave up, were 4 balls absolutely scorched right at people: Morneau made a diving stop on Sean Casey, Dustin Pedroia's liner landed right in Livan's glove, Manny Ramirez hit a liner to deep CF that got to Gomez in about 2 seconds, and Varitek ended the 3rd with a liner to deep left. Boston swung the bats well enough to have 4 more hits off Livan, and heaven knows how many more runs would have resulted.
But, at the end of the day, he's tied for he AL lead in wins at 6-1, and his 3.90 ERA looks pretty nice.
Anybody want him?
Juan Rincon did a nice job in relief, allowing just a walk in 2 IP. He was aided by the very special catch Cuddyer made in right field - Pedroia's liner bounced off Micheal's glove, the top of his head, the bill of his cap, and back into his glove. (Pedroia had to be shaking his head after this game.)
I loved the offensive approach vs. Clay Buchholz. He's been struggling with his control, and the Twins decided not to be too aggressive with him. Sure enough, he rewarded their patience with 5 BB in 4.1 IP. Another fine game for Craig Monroe (2 RBI 2B and 2 BB) despite a K - we may never get to see Jason Kubel again. Delmon Young had 2 H and 2 RBI (despite a K). Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer went 5/10 with 2 BB and 5 R.
Wins like this are exciting, and very encouraging, but I'm not sure winning is sustainable with the overall quality of play of the Twins right now. Livan is very hittable, the offense doesn't hit a lot of XBH, doesn't walk enough, strikes out too much (especially Monroe, Young, Harris and Gomez). I hope this is apparent to Bill Smith, and that he intends to use some of the organization's resources to upgrade various positions as the season moves along.
Span vs. Gomez
Gomez went 1 for 4, and his hit was just like the one from Friday - knee-high on the outside corner, driven into RF. Love it. 2 more K, though, giving him 37 on the season, 4th in the AL. The company he keeps in the top 10 are all swing for the fences guys like Jim Thome, Richie Sexson, and Jack Cust. Since his magical Cycle night in Chicago, he's reached base 6 times in 23 PA (.261 OBP) and struck out 8 times.
Meanwhile, every night I check the Red Wings box score, and every night, Denard Span has gotten on base at least once. Last night, he had his best night of the year, going 3-5 with a 2B and HR. That raised his line to .324/.425/.419, an .844 OPS. If the team really prefers Gomez for 2008, then they need to start shopping Span - with those numbers, he should be worth a decent IF prospect.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Good Luck
Twins 11, Tigers 1
"Everything worked the way I wanted," Hernandez said. "So I'm lucky."
You can say that again. Despite allowing 10 baserunners, Livan managed to wriggle his way out of some jams to complete 7 innings, allowing only Magglio Ordonez' solo HR. Amazing.
I realized after his last start against Texas that the best game plan against Hernandez is to take 4 pitches every time you come to the plate. At that point, the count will either be 2-2 or 3-1 (or you're already on first base). Then try to hit the ball to the opposite field. It started out looking the Tigers would have the patience to do that, seeing 16 pitches despite going in order in the first. Then, beginning with Magglio's homer, 4 straight hitters reached to load the bases with 1 run in and nobody out in the 2nd. Luckily, the next two batters were Pudge Rodriguez and Jacque Jones, who combined to make 3 outs on the next 3 pitches. Those two are the only weak links in that lineup - thank goodness they were the ones coming up in that situation.
One thing I noticed watching the game tonight - Livan looks a lot better when the ump has a wide strike zone. He also did a nice job of changing speeds and keeping his pitches out of the middle of the plate.
So, he looks pretty good, right? Wily. Crafty. Eating innings. Taming the ferocious Tigers lineup. Anybody else want him? Happy to trade you...
"Our offense kind of exploded," said third-base coach Scott Ullger.
You can say that again. The underwhelming-in-April trio of Carlos Gomez, Jason Kubel and Delmon Young combined to go .545/.615/.727 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 SB; Gomez surely would have had another run had he not been conked out by a throw from Pudge in the 5th. The steady-in-April quartet of Harris, Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer went .444/.500/.778 with 7 R and 7 RBI. Even the slow starting former Astros each notched a hit.
11 runs is often a series' worth for the Twins, so I'm a little concerned that they blew their wad in a game they were already winning, and tomorrow they'll probably lose 6-4. Then again, maybe this is a continuation of the offensive awakening that began to stir late in the last road trip. We'll see how they do against Verlander and Rogers this weekend.
The Go-Go Show
Gomez had quite a game before he was knocked out in the 5th. He walked(!) leading off the game, stole second, and scored. He was hit by a pitch for the first time this season in the 3rd, and later scored. He stroked a 2-strike single leading off the 5th, setting up his collision with Pudge's throw while stealing his 13th base of the year. He had to make 2 throws into the infield, each missing the cutoff man by a mile.
When Gomez had his best full-season OBP in 2006, he was hit by a pitch 19 times in 430 ABs. In his minor league career, he averaged a HBP every 33 ABs; he was hit 3 times in 125 ABs with the Mets last year. It took him 102 ABs to get HBP this season. This is a part of his game he needs to bring back!
But why would any pitcher risk hitting him, when they can get him to expand the outside part of the zone? Tigers starter Galarraga did a terrible job pitching to Gomez tonight. A 5-pitch walk, HBP, and 2-strike hanging slider made life pretty easy for Go-Go. And he did a good job of making those mistakes costly.
(By the way, Span's line tonight: 2-4, BB, 3 SB and probably 0 overthrows of cutoff men)
"Everything worked the way I wanted," Hernandez said. "So I'm lucky."
You can say that again. Despite allowing 10 baserunners, Livan managed to wriggle his way out of some jams to complete 7 innings, allowing only Magglio Ordonez' solo HR. Amazing.
I realized after his last start against Texas that the best game plan against Hernandez is to take 4 pitches every time you come to the plate. At that point, the count will either be 2-2 or 3-1 (or you're already on first base). Then try to hit the ball to the opposite field. It started out looking the Tigers would have the patience to do that, seeing 16 pitches despite going in order in the first. Then, beginning with Magglio's homer, 4 straight hitters reached to load the bases with 1 run in and nobody out in the 2nd. Luckily, the next two batters were Pudge Rodriguez and Jacque Jones, who combined to make 3 outs on the next 3 pitches. Those two are the only weak links in that lineup - thank goodness they were the ones coming up in that situation.
One thing I noticed watching the game tonight - Livan looks a lot better when the ump has a wide strike zone. He also did a nice job of changing speeds and keeping his pitches out of the middle of the plate.
So, he looks pretty good, right? Wily. Crafty. Eating innings. Taming the ferocious Tigers lineup. Anybody else want him? Happy to trade you...
"Our offense kind of exploded," said third-base coach Scott Ullger.
You can say that again. The underwhelming-in-April trio of Carlos Gomez, Jason Kubel and Delmon Young combined to go .545/.615/.727 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 SB; Gomez surely would have had another run had he not been conked out by a throw from Pudge in the 5th. The steady-in-April quartet of Harris, Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer went .444/.500/.778 with 7 R and 7 RBI. Even the slow starting former Astros each notched a hit.
11 runs is often a series' worth for the Twins, so I'm a little concerned that they blew their wad in a game they were already winning, and tomorrow they'll probably lose 6-4. Then again, maybe this is a continuation of the offensive awakening that began to stir late in the last road trip. We'll see how they do against Verlander and Rogers this weekend.
The Go-Go Show
Gomez had quite a game before he was knocked out in the 5th. He walked(!) leading off the game, stole second, and scored. He was hit by a pitch for the first time this season in the 3rd, and later scored. He stroked a 2-strike single leading off the 5th, setting up his collision with Pudge's throw while stealing his 13th base of the year. He had to make 2 throws into the infield, each missing the cutoff man by a mile.
When Gomez had his best full-season OBP in 2006, he was hit by a pitch 19 times in 430 ABs. In his minor league career, he averaged a HBP every 33 ABs; he was hit 3 times in 125 ABs with the Mets last year. It took him 102 ABs to get HBP this season. This is a part of his game he needs to bring back!
But why would any pitcher risk hitting him, when they can get him to expand the outside part of the zone? Tigers starter Galarraga did a terrible job pitching to Gomez tonight. A 5-pitch walk, HBP, and 2-strike hanging slider made life pretty easy for Go-Go. And he did a good job of making those mistakes costly.
(By the way, Span's line tonight: 2-4, BB, 3 SB and probably 0 overthrows of cutoff men)
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
The Real Livan Hernandez
Twins 12, Rangers 6
Rangers 10, Twins 0
I knew he was lurking around the clubhouse somewhere. It was only a question of where he would show up. Answer: in the West. In his two starts on this road trip, Livan Hernandez went just 8.2 IP, allowing 11 ER, 16 H, 3 BB, 5 K. His season ERA stands at 5.05, his WHIP at 1.46, his BAA at .310.
And April is his "good" month.
If only someone had wanted to trade for him after three starts. Now, he'll probably have to be ignominiously released sometime next month once the team is comfortable promoting Kevin Mulvey, Brian Duensing or Francisco Liriano. Livan's been better than Liriano, and with Kevin Slowey injured, it was good to have him around, I guess. But I think that once he's released after 10-12 starts for a younger pitcher who performs consistently better, we'll be asking ourselves the same thing we asked about Ponson, Ortiz and Batista: why was it necessary to suffer through two months of mediocrity/incompetence when better prospects were available in the system? I hope this is the year the Twins finally learn their lesson.
As for the offensive side of things, it was great to see everything click on Saturday, especially a HR from Cuddyer in just his second game back. I preferred Mauer in the #2 slot, but Harris has been having good enough ABs that he's a good choice for that spot as well. At least Mauer will be hitting behind somebody with an OBP north of .300. Moving Delmon Young down in the lineup is also a good move at this point - until he starts popping doubles and homers, he's not much protection for Morneau. Good to see Lamb starting to heat up.
On Sunday, maybe Livan's lugubrious suckitude took everybody out of the game mentally, but it was disheartening to see the offense let Vicente Padilla pitch a CG shutout against them. Particularly upsetting was the fact that they forced him to throw 23 pitches in the first inning, but just 98 pitches over the next 8. Jason Kubel is largely to blame, flying out on the first pitch of the 2nd to set up a 6-pitch inning. I love Kubel, but he hacks at the first pitch way too often in situations where a little grinding patience would serve the team better.
Kevin Slowey was excellent in his second start in Fort Myers, allowing only a walk in 5 IP. Clearly, he's too good for Single-A: in 8 IP he allowed just 1 ER on 1 H and 1 BB. He's on target to start Thursday for Rochester, and if he looks good there, he'll be in line to start in Chicago the following week. That will be a big lift for the Twins' battered rotation.
Rangers 10, Twins 0
I knew he was lurking around the clubhouse somewhere. It was only a question of where he would show up. Answer: in the West. In his two starts on this road trip, Livan Hernandez went just 8.2 IP, allowing 11 ER, 16 H, 3 BB, 5 K. His season ERA stands at 5.05, his WHIP at 1.46, his BAA at .310.
And April is his "good" month.
If only someone had wanted to trade for him after three starts. Now, he'll probably have to be ignominiously released sometime next month once the team is comfortable promoting Kevin Mulvey, Brian Duensing or Francisco Liriano. Livan's been better than Liriano, and with Kevin Slowey injured, it was good to have him around, I guess. But I think that once he's released after 10-12 starts for a younger pitcher who performs consistently better, we'll be asking ourselves the same thing we asked about Ponson, Ortiz and Batista: why was it necessary to suffer through two months of mediocrity/incompetence when better prospects were available in the system? I hope this is the year the Twins finally learn their lesson.
As for the offensive side of things, it was great to see everything click on Saturday, especially a HR from Cuddyer in just his second game back. I preferred Mauer in the #2 slot, but Harris has been having good enough ABs that he's a good choice for that spot as well. At least Mauer will be hitting behind somebody with an OBP north of .300. Moving Delmon Young down in the lineup is also a good move at this point - until he starts popping doubles and homers, he's not much protection for Morneau. Good to see Lamb starting to heat up.
On Sunday, maybe Livan's lugubrious suckitude took everybody out of the game mentally, but it was disheartening to see the offense let Vicente Padilla pitch a CG shutout against them. Particularly upsetting was the fact that they forced him to throw 23 pitches in the first inning, but just 98 pitches over the next 8. Jason Kubel is largely to blame, flying out on the first pitch of the 2nd to set up a 6-pitch inning. I love Kubel, but he hacks at the first pitch way too often in situations where a little grinding patience would serve the team better.
Kevin Slowey was excellent in his second start in Fort Myers, allowing only a walk in 5 IP. Clearly, he's too good for Single-A: in 8 IP he allowed just 1 ER on 1 H and 1 BB. He's on target to start Thursday for Rochester, and if he looks good there, he'll be in line to start in Chicago the following week. That will be a big lift for the Twins' battered rotation.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Better to Be Lucky
Twins 5, A's 4
I had house guests last night, so I didn't get to watch/listen to the game. I was able to check in on Gameday periodically. My thoughts based on that, the box score, and the write-up:
Sounded like a lot of the Twins' hits were well-placed. Those can be the ones that get slumping guys going sometimes. Hopefully that will be the case for Mike Lamb.
Craig Monroe absolutely owns Joe Blanton. I wonder if he can say that about any other RHP. Great to see him raise the SLG% and join the HR parade (such as it is).
Livan Hernandez continues to pitch well enough to keep the Twins in the game, but he's showing signs of cracking. He allowed just 5 ER in his first 3 starts, allowing no HR and walking none with 7 IP in each game. These starts were against the Angels and Royals, who rank 12th and 13th in the AL in team walks, respectively (guess who's #14!). His last 2 starts, he has allowed 7 ER, 4 HR and 6 walks while pitching 6 innings each. He's crafty enough to get away with allowing just over a H/IP, but not if the H is a HR, and not if there's a BB right in front of it (as was the case in the 6th last night). If Monroe didn't have Blanton's number, Livan's pitching performance would have resulted in a loss.
Solid work again by the bullpen: Rincon, Neshek and Nathan combined for 3 IP, H, BB, 5 K. Keep that up.
Span vs. Gomez
I haven't been able to make any comparisons recently, since Span has been out of the lineup following his atrocious performance in the final game of the Rays series (0-3, K, 2 E). But surely Gomez surpassed those depths of suckitude last night (0-5, 4 K, E). Since one of Span's errors was the result of the poor design of the Metrodome (no one doubts that he can catch balls that he can see), I'm calling the Error category even between those two. Gomez gets extra points for the game saver on Sunday. But at least we can say that Span has not played markedly weaker defense than Gomez (Span gets extra points for playing out of position).
Offensively, Span is hitting .222/.300/.222 through 30 PAs. He has 3 BB, 6 K and 3 SB. Gomez is hitting .230/.247/.310 through 89 PAs. He has 2 BB, 24 K and 9 SB. In 1/3 the playing time, Span has 3/2 the BB, 1/4 the K, and 1/3 the SB of Gomez.
It sounds like Span will get a start tonight against RHP Chad Gaudin. If he can reach two times, it should be enough to warrant serious discussion as to which young OF the Twins send back to Rochester when Cuddyer is activated from the DL on Friday.
I had house guests last night, so I didn't get to watch/listen to the game. I was able to check in on Gameday periodically. My thoughts based on that, the box score, and the write-up:
Sounded like a lot of the Twins' hits were well-placed. Those can be the ones that get slumping guys going sometimes. Hopefully that will be the case for Mike Lamb.
Craig Monroe absolutely owns Joe Blanton. I wonder if he can say that about any other RHP. Great to see him raise the SLG% and join the HR parade (such as it is).
Livan Hernandez continues to pitch well enough to keep the Twins in the game, but he's showing signs of cracking. He allowed just 5 ER in his first 3 starts, allowing no HR and walking none with 7 IP in each game. These starts were against the Angels and Royals, who rank 12th and 13th in the AL in team walks, respectively (guess who's #14!). His last 2 starts, he has allowed 7 ER, 4 HR and 6 walks while pitching 6 innings each. He's crafty enough to get away with allowing just over a H/IP, but not if the H is a HR, and not if there's a BB right in front of it (as was the case in the 6th last night). If Monroe didn't have Blanton's number, Livan's pitching performance would have resulted in a loss.
Solid work again by the bullpen: Rincon, Neshek and Nathan combined for 3 IP, H, BB, 5 K. Keep that up.
Span vs. Gomez
I haven't been able to make any comparisons recently, since Span has been out of the lineup following his atrocious performance in the final game of the Rays series (0-3, K, 2 E). But surely Gomez surpassed those depths of suckitude last night (0-5, 4 K, E). Since one of Span's errors was the result of the poor design of the Metrodome (no one doubts that he can catch balls that he can see), I'm calling the Error category even between those two. Gomez gets extra points for the game saver on Sunday. But at least we can say that Span has not played markedly weaker defense than Gomez (Span gets extra points for playing out of position).
Offensively, Span is hitting .222/.300/.222 through 30 PAs. He has 3 BB, 6 K and 3 SB. Gomez is hitting .230/.247/.310 through 89 PAs. He has 2 BB, 24 K and 9 SB. In 1/3 the playing time, Span has 3/2 the BB, 1/4 the K, and 1/3 the SB of Gomez.
It sounds like Span will get a start tonight against RHP Chad Gaudin. If he can reach two times, it should be enough to warrant serious discussion as to which young OF the Twins send back to Rochester when Cuddyer is activated from the DL on Friday.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Sweet Relief
Twins 6, Rays 5
The Twins got back into the win column and evened their home record last night.
Livan finally started to show some cracks. Coming into the game he had a 2.57 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, going 7 innings in each of his first 3 starts, walking 1 and allowing no homers. Last night only 3 of the 5 runs he allowed were earned thanks to Brendan Harris' error, so his overall ERA remains low (3.00). But he served up 3 walks and 3 homers, and his WHIP for the game was 1.83. The Rays were pretty patient with him, forcing him to throw strikes, elevating his pitch count to 103 through just 6 IP. He was fortunate it wasn't worse - a DP and Mauer gunning down 2 potential base stealers helped him escape a couple of jams.
Still, when he left the Twins were in the game, and this time the middle relief did the job. Dennys Reyes saw his first action in over a week, taking over in the 7th with 1.1 efficient innings. Juan Rincon came in to finish the 8th, allowing a 2-out single but no other trouble. It was enough to earn the bullpen its first win of the season after an 0-3 road trip.
Each team took advantage of defensive miscues to score runs. Harris' error extended the 6th until Riggins could come up and hit a game-tying, 2-run HR. In the previous half inning, the Twins scored 2 on a throwing error by our old friend Jason Bartlett, who matched Everett with his 3rd error of the young season. Former Rays Delmon Young and Harris keyed the winning rally in the bottom of the 8th, singling to put runners at the corners with 1 out. Carl Crawford then elected to make a sliding catch on Mike Lamb's slicing foul fly ball, getting the out but giving himself no chance to throw out the tagging Young. With Lamb hitting .156, and Dan Wheeler allowing a very low BAA, Crawford might have been better off letting that one drop for a strike.
While they got some favors from the Rays, the Twins also helped themselves by working James Shields, a very solid young pitcher. He lasted just 5 innings, yielding 5 R (3 ER) on 8 H and a BB. Mauer is 5 for his last 8 and has the average back up to .300. Morneau came a couple feet short of HR #5. Kubel had a couple more hits and an RBI. Harris matched that and continues to lead the team with a .341 BA. Lamb and Punto continue to struggle.
Span vs. Gomez
Span had his worst night at the plate so far, going 0-4 with 2 K. He had a nice AB in the first, lining out on a 2-1 pitch. But other than that, he was pretty weak, twice failing to bring Gomez home from second base, and never getting the ball out of the infield.
Gomez had his first 2-hit game since Livan's last start. He lined a single on a 1-2 pitch in the 3rd, and finally got a bunt down in the 5th. Each time he stole 2nd to raise his League-leading SB total to 9. He raised his line to .262/.284/.369. He made another errant throw from the outfield in the 5th when he had no chance to throw out the speedy Crawford on a ground ball single from BJ Upton - he was fortunate that Morneau was able to cut the ball and keep Upton at first.
The Twins got back into the win column and evened their home record last night.
Livan finally started to show some cracks. Coming into the game he had a 2.57 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, going 7 innings in each of his first 3 starts, walking 1 and allowing no homers. Last night only 3 of the 5 runs he allowed were earned thanks to Brendan Harris' error, so his overall ERA remains low (3.00). But he served up 3 walks and 3 homers, and his WHIP for the game was 1.83. The Rays were pretty patient with him, forcing him to throw strikes, elevating his pitch count to 103 through just 6 IP. He was fortunate it wasn't worse - a DP and Mauer gunning down 2 potential base stealers helped him escape a couple of jams.
Still, when he left the Twins were in the game, and this time the middle relief did the job. Dennys Reyes saw his first action in over a week, taking over in the 7th with 1.1 efficient innings. Juan Rincon came in to finish the 8th, allowing a 2-out single but no other trouble. It was enough to earn the bullpen its first win of the season after an 0-3 road trip.
Each team took advantage of defensive miscues to score runs. Harris' error extended the 6th until Riggins could come up and hit a game-tying, 2-run HR. In the previous half inning, the Twins scored 2 on a throwing error by our old friend Jason Bartlett, who matched Everett with his 3rd error of the young season. Former Rays Delmon Young and Harris keyed the winning rally in the bottom of the 8th, singling to put runners at the corners with 1 out. Carl Crawford then elected to make a sliding catch on Mike Lamb's slicing foul fly ball, getting the out but giving himself no chance to throw out the tagging Young. With Lamb hitting .156, and Dan Wheeler allowing a very low BAA, Crawford might have been better off letting that one drop for a strike.
While they got some favors from the Rays, the Twins also helped themselves by working James Shields, a very solid young pitcher. He lasted just 5 innings, yielding 5 R (3 ER) on 8 H and a BB. Mauer is 5 for his last 8 and has the average back up to .300. Morneau came a couple feet short of HR #5. Kubel had a couple more hits and an RBI. Harris matched that and continues to lead the team with a .341 BA. Lamb and Punto continue to struggle.
Span vs. Gomez
Span had his worst night at the plate so far, going 0-4 with 2 K. He had a nice AB in the first, lining out on a 2-1 pitch. But other than that, he was pretty weak, twice failing to bring Gomez home from second base, and never getting the ball out of the infield.
Gomez had his first 2-hit game since Livan's last start. He lined a single on a 1-2 pitch in the 3rd, and finally got a bunt down in the 5th. Each time he stole 2nd to raise his League-leading SB total to 9. He raised his line to .262/.284/.369. He made another errant throw from the outfield in the 5th when he had no chance to throw out the speedy Crawford on a ground ball single from BJ Upton - he was fortunate that Morneau was able to cut the ball and keep Upton at first.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Livan on the Edge
Twins 5, Royals 0
Tonight's game was a lot closer than it appeared, though the Twins were leading big from the 2nd inning on. The Royals helped them out with a misplayed fly ball in the Twins' 4-run inning. Had Teahen made a routine catch, the only run that inning would have scored on Span's first Major-League RBI. Instead, Gomez got a 2-run double, and scored on a single from the white-hot Matt Tolbert. All 3 RBI hits came with 2 outs.
On the other side of the ball, Livan was very fortunate to get through the first 5 innings with no runs allowed. This was especially true in the 5th, when the Royals loaded the bases with one out. Teahen's single was so hard-hit right at Span that the Royals elected not to send the runner home from 2nd. Hernandez then got Guillen to chase a curve ball out of the zone, and retired Billy Butler on a weak grounder. Scouts take note: apparently, the only way to get Butler out is to throw him 60-MPH curve balls.
Luckily, things worked out for the Twins, and they're back to .500 and within 1 game of the division lead. Hopefully Boof Bonser can get more than 1 run of support tomorrow in a re-match of last Sunday's loss.
Span vs. Gomez
Pretty good night for both guys, though, as it was in spring training, Gomez comes out looking better. As I said, Teahen really helped him out in the 2nd, but he hustled all night and hit some balls hard on 2-strike pitches, something we've seen very little of so far. He came within a borderline call of making it 2 games in a row in which he and Young both drew walks. Span was a borderline call away from a 1-3 line. But he picked up his first RBI and OF assist (Butler needs to just be happy he's on first base vs. our OF), and he had another couple of 6-pitch ABs. Gomez had some longer ABs tonight, and Young, for that matter. Maybe Tolbert and Span are rubbing off on them.
Other thoughts:
Lousy night for Mauer, Kubel, and Lamb (2 of whom are on my fantasy team), although Mauer had a couple of hard-hit balls.
Jesse Crain wasn't out there very long, but he looked fantastic. His fastball was in the mid-90s, and his slider was sharp. He's back!
Kevin Slowey was finally placed on the DL, and Liriano is coming up to start on Sunday. He'll probably be a little rough at first, command-wise, but the Royals aren't walking very much, so maybe they'll help him out. It will be exciting to have him back in any event!
I hope Slowey is able to make a quick recovery. He was the best pitcher in AAA last season, and looked ready to take the next step this spring. When he's finally healthy, the Twins will be in great position to deal Hernandez at the top of his value and perhaps upgrade one of the infield positions.
For as sluggish as the Twins have started, they find themselves in better position than some of their more formidable rivals. With their best baseball still ahead of them, it's not a bad position to be in.
Tonight's game was a lot closer than it appeared, though the Twins were leading big from the 2nd inning on. The Royals helped them out with a misplayed fly ball in the Twins' 4-run inning. Had Teahen made a routine catch, the only run that inning would have scored on Span's first Major-League RBI. Instead, Gomez got a 2-run double, and scored on a single from the white-hot Matt Tolbert. All 3 RBI hits came with 2 outs.
On the other side of the ball, Livan was very fortunate to get through the first 5 innings with no runs allowed. This was especially true in the 5th, when the Royals loaded the bases with one out. Teahen's single was so hard-hit right at Span that the Royals elected not to send the runner home from 2nd. Hernandez then got Guillen to chase a curve ball out of the zone, and retired Billy Butler on a weak grounder. Scouts take note: apparently, the only way to get Butler out is to throw him 60-MPH curve balls.
Luckily, things worked out for the Twins, and they're back to .500 and within 1 game of the division lead. Hopefully Boof Bonser can get more than 1 run of support tomorrow in a re-match of last Sunday's loss.
Span vs. Gomez
Pretty good night for both guys, though, as it was in spring training, Gomez comes out looking better. As I said, Teahen really helped him out in the 2nd, but he hustled all night and hit some balls hard on 2-strike pitches, something we've seen very little of so far. He came within a borderline call of making it 2 games in a row in which he and Young both drew walks. Span was a borderline call away from a 1-3 line. But he picked up his first RBI and OF assist (Butler needs to just be happy he's on first base vs. our OF), and he had another couple of 6-pitch ABs. Gomez had some longer ABs tonight, and Young, for that matter. Maybe Tolbert and Span are rubbing off on them.
Other thoughts:
Lousy night for Mauer, Kubel, and Lamb (2 of whom are on my fantasy team), although Mauer had a couple of hard-hit balls.
Jesse Crain wasn't out there very long, but he looked fantastic. His fastball was in the mid-90s, and his slider was sharp. He's back!
Kevin Slowey was finally placed on the DL, and Liriano is coming up to start on Sunday. He'll probably be a little rough at first, command-wise, but the Royals aren't walking very much, so maybe they'll help him out. It will be exciting to have him back in any event!
I hope Slowey is able to make a quick recovery. He was the best pitcher in AAA last season, and looked ready to take the next step this spring. When he's finally healthy, the Twins will be in great position to deal Hernandez at the top of his value and perhaps upgrade one of the infield positions.
For as sluggish as the Twins have started, they find themselves in better position than some of their more formidable rivals. With their best baseball still ahead of them, it's not a bad position to be in.
Monday, April 7, 2008
Justin Time
Twins 6, Royals 4
Royals 3, Twins 1
Great to see the Justin Morneau who signed the big contract finally appear in the lineup. His excellent offensive weekend paved the way to a series win. I got to see most of both games on TV (Sunday in HD - ooooooooh), and noticed some interesting things:
Livan Hernandez is doing his typical April thing. He only gave up a couple of hard-hit balls on Saturday - one when he apparently lost his concentration after a balk (the next pitch was smoked to the wall for a triple). I can't believe he physically tires out as the season goes along, so maybe his problem is mental. Anyway, two 7-inning quality starts, just what he's supposed to do. Should be worth something in a trade later on.
Matt Guerrier needs to stop throwing so many balls. He got away with it again, pitching around a cheap 2-out infield hit and error by Everett. Everett needs to step it up in the infield. The infield hit was a slow chopper up the middle. As he converged on the ball, running toward first base, Tolbert cut in front of him and threw across his body while running toward third base. The shortstop has an easier, shorter throw there, perhaps the difference between safe by half a step and out by half a step. Everett has to call Tolbert off - not only is he captain of the infield, he's played 7 years in the bigs - Tolbert hasn't even played seven games.
Mauer, Morneau and Kubel all swung the bats well this weekend. No surprise there. The surprise is how well Tolbert is swinging. Thanks to his hot start and Harris' flu, Tolbert has nearly as many plate appearances as Everett and Harris. Notice who doesn't have a lot of PAs? Nick Punto, 1 for 3 on the week. All of you who thought Gardy would insist on playing Punto over better hitters owe the skipper an apology.
Boof was solid again on Sunday. He pitched better than Tomko - the reason he gave up more runs is he gave up hits early in the inning, while Tomko was generally able to retire the leadoff hitter.
Which brings us to Carlos Gomez. How interesting to have him and Span hitting back-to-back again. In Gomez' first AB last Monday, he pulled a grounder just fair over third base for a double. In Span's first AB Sunday, he pulled a grounder just foul over first base. Couldn't have been more than an inch foul. Span worked the count full before being retired when Tomko leaped up to stop his bouncer up the middle. He drew a full-count walk in his second AB, then was retired on a sliding stop by the second baseman on an 0-2 swing.
Gomez, meanwhile, on his only base hit of the weekend, a leadoff slicing single to very short right field in the third, got himself thrown out trying to stretch it to a double. Though right fielder Guillen had a long way to run for the ball, he has an excellent throwing arm, and Gomez was easily nailed at second. Two disturbing things about this:
1: do you not know how good the RFs arm is?
2: you're Carlos Gomez - you're going to steal second by the third pitch of the next AB anyway.
He just consistently outruns his brain. Plus, he's struck out 8 times in his first 29 PAs, walking just once. Four of those strikeouts have come on 3 pitches. Span saw 15 pitches in his 3 PAs Sunday. I'll keep tabs on them throughout Cuddy's DL stay.
Lots of good news on the pitching front this home stand. With the exception of the injured Kevin Slowey, each starter pitched at least 6 innings. Even if you throw Slowey in there, the average start this week was 6.1 IP, 3.89 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 2 HR, 1 BB(!), 21 K. That ought to do a lot better than 3-4. But, when the offense averages 2.7 run/game, 3.89 from the starters can be too much to overcome. Too many DPs, too many quick ABs, not enough walks, not enough homers. I'm most concerned about Mr. Lamb after this weekend - he looked awful yesterday, particularly when he dove at a 2-0 changeup with a RISP in the 2nd.
This week the Twins start their road schedule in Chicago. Javier Vazquez has given the Twins trouble in the past, but if Blackburn can back up his performance from last Wednesday, the Twins should be in the game. After an off-day Tuesday, it'll be Baker vs. LHP John Danks, followed by a historic Hernandez/Contreras matchup in the finale. Should be quite a competition to see who can throw the slowest pitch. I hope Gardy will be ready to turn loose the running game on Pierzynski - should be able to steal 3-4 bases/game.
Not a great start to the season, true. But better than the Tigers!
Royals 3, Twins 1
Great to see the Justin Morneau who signed the big contract finally appear in the lineup. His excellent offensive weekend paved the way to a series win. I got to see most of both games on TV (Sunday in HD - ooooooooh), and noticed some interesting things:
Livan Hernandez is doing his typical April thing. He only gave up a couple of hard-hit balls on Saturday - one when he apparently lost his concentration after a balk (the next pitch was smoked to the wall for a triple). I can't believe he physically tires out as the season goes along, so maybe his problem is mental. Anyway, two 7-inning quality starts, just what he's supposed to do. Should be worth something in a trade later on.
Matt Guerrier needs to stop throwing so many balls. He got away with it again, pitching around a cheap 2-out infield hit and error by Everett. Everett needs to step it up in the infield. The infield hit was a slow chopper up the middle. As he converged on the ball, running toward first base, Tolbert cut in front of him and threw across his body while running toward third base. The shortstop has an easier, shorter throw there, perhaps the difference between safe by half a step and out by half a step. Everett has to call Tolbert off - not only is he captain of the infield, he's played 7 years in the bigs - Tolbert hasn't even played seven games.
Mauer, Morneau and Kubel all swung the bats well this weekend. No surprise there. The surprise is how well Tolbert is swinging. Thanks to his hot start and Harris' flu, Tolbert has nearly as many plate appearances as Everett and Harris. Notice who doesn't have a lot of PAs? Nick Punto, 1 for 3 on the week. All of you who thought Gardy would insist on playing Punto over better hitters owe the skipper an apology.
Boof was solid again on Sunday. He pitched better than Tomko - the reason he gave up more runs is he gave up hits early in the inning, while Tomko was generally able to retire the leadoff hitter.
Which brings us to Carlos Gomez. How interesting to have him and Span hitting back-to-back again. In Gomez' first AB last Monday, he pulled a grounder just fair over third base for a double. In Span's first AB Sunday, he pulled a grounder just foul over first base. Couldn't have been more than an inch foul. Span worked the count full before being retired when Tomko leaped up to stop his bouncer up the middle. He drew a full-count walk in his second AB, then was retired on a sliding stop by the second baseman on an 0-2 swing.
Gomez, meanwhile, on his only base hit of the weekend, a leadoff slicing single to very short right field in the third, got himself thrown out trying to stretch it to a double. Though right fielder Guillen had a long way to run for the ball, he has an excellent throwing arm, and Gomez was easily nailed at second. Two disturbing things about this:
1: do you not know how good the RFs arm is?
2: you're Carlos Gomez - you're going to steal second by the third pitch of the next AB anyway.
He just consistently outruns his brain. Plus, he's struck out 8 times in his first 29 PAs, walking just once. Four of those strikeouts have come on 3 pitches. Span saw 15 pitches in his 3 PAs Sunday. I'll keep tabs on them throughout Cuddy's DL stay.
Lots of good news on the pitching front this home stand. With the exception of the injured Kevin Slowey, each starter pitched at least 6 innings. Even if you throw Slowey in there, the average start this week was 6.1 IP, 3.89 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 2 HR, 1 BB(!), 21 K. That ought to do a lot better than 3-4. But, when the offense averages 2.7 run/game, 3.89 from the starters can be too much to overcome. Too many DPs, too many quick ABs, not enough walks, not enough homers. I'm most concerned about Mr. Lamb after this weekend - he looked awful yesterday, particularly when he dove at a 2-0 changeup with a RISP in the 2nd.
This week the Twins start their road schedule in Chicago. Javier Vazquez has given the Twins trouble in the past, but if Blackburn can back up his performance from last Wednesday, the Twins should be in the game. After an off-day Tuesday, it'll be Baker vs. LHP John Danks, followed by a historic Hernandez/Contreras matchup in the finale. Should be quite a competition to see who can throw the slowest pitch. I hope Gardy will be ready to turn loose the running game on Pierzynski - should be able to steal 3-4 bases/game.
Not a great start to the season, true. But better than the Tigers!
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
What Might Have Been
I checked the box score from work today, and saw that today's game was a quickie (2:09 or so), so I decided to listen to it when I got home from work. What a pleasure to listen to baseball in the backyard on a spring evening while playing fetch with the doggie!
Livan Hernandez had his second straight solid outing: 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K. However, like last time, he was facing a lineup of mostly bench players. The three regulars in the Rays lineup (Iwamura, Bartlett and Gomes) combined to go 3-8 with a walk, double, triple and RBI. I remain unconvinced that Livan will be effective on opening day. He did thrill the crowd with a dribbler up the first base line that he kicked into Morneau's glove for the out. Maybe soccer is his sport.
Carlos Gomez flailed at strike 3 in the first after 3 straight bunt attempts. With a runner on second in the 2nd, he flailed so wildly at the first pitch that he fell down. Rays pitcher James Shields apparently didn't appreciate the largeness of the swing, and hit Gomez with a pitch. In the top of the third, he misplayed Iwamura's drive to center, twisting back and forth until he fell down, and the ball sailed over his head for a triple. Dan Gladden: "That's what you're going to get with this kid." He doubled over 3rd base in the fourth, and easily scored on Joe Mauer's bloop single to left. In the top of the 5th, he came up lame while making a running catch in left-center. They say it's just a cramp and he's day-to-day. Gomez says he wants to play tomorrow. Gardy would be absolutely nuts to let him.
(This brings up another reason the Twins shouldn't have had him start the season in the Majors: if he gets hurt and goes on the DL, his service time clock will be ticking away. If he gets hurt in the minors, no worries. Can we get a do-over? Please?)
Hearing Bartlett go 3-4 with a SB got me thinking. It's no use fixating on what might have been, so I'll just mention this one time, then take Garth Elgar's advice (Live in the now, man!). The Twins had too many young players, too many guys who had bad years last year, to be comfortable sticking with the hand they had at the end of last season. But what if they'd signed most of the same free agents, but hadn't traded Garza or Santana, believing that 2 first-rounders plus one more season of the best pitcher in baseball drawing crowds (and a chance at the title) were worth the same as the Mets' package. As we've seen this spring play out, the likely Twins opening day roster would have been:
CF - Span
SS - Bartlett
C - Mauer
1B - Morneau
RF - Cuddyer
LF - Kubel
3B - Lamb
DH - Ruiz/Monroe
2B - Punto/Tolbert
C - Redman
Bench - Jon Knott
I would have taken a flyer on a free agent 2B like Marcus Giles - he plays great defense, he can't hit any worse than Punto, and when he's on, he's got decent pop. But it's the pitching staff that really makes me wistful:
1P - Santana
2P - Baker
3P - Garza
4P - Bonser
5P - Slowey
Bullpen - exactly the same as the actual 2008 bullpen.
Liriano starts the year in the minors, and when he's got his feel back, he can come up. At that time, the Twins could trade Bonser and maybe one other prospect for a proper second baseman. If anyone falters, bring up Blackburn. Should they still give Nathan the extension? Why not? They could use the money they spent on Livan to give him the raise for this year, and with Santana still likely off the books for 2009, they could afford him just as easily as they can in the real world.
I think that roster is better than what the Twins will actually take north. It took a little faith to feel good about the possibilities of that group, but not an unrealistic amount. You just have to believe that the guys are capable of performing closer to their 2006 level than 2007, and that the young pitchers are ready come into their own. With Santana anchoring the rotation, and Neshek and Nathan slamming the door in the 8th and 9th innings, I think the what-if Twins team would have been capable of 90 wins. In a tough division, that might be enough - the Tigers and Indians are not without their weaknesses.
I'm not going to obsess over it, but I suspect that if we were to compile the numbers of that group of players at the end of the season, we'd find a team that could have produced better results than the team Bill Smith assembled.
Oh, well - easy come, easy go.
Livan Hernandez had his second straight solid outing: 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K. However, like last time, he was facing a lineup of mostly bench players. The three regulars in the Rays lineup (Iwamura, Bartlett and Gomes) combined to go 3-8 with a walk, double, triple and RBI. I remain unconvinced that Livan will be effective on opening day. He did thrill the crowd with a dribbler up the first base line that he kicked into Morneau's glove for the out. Maybe soccer is his sport.
Carlos Gomez flailed at strike 3 in the first after 3 straight bunt attempts. With a runner on second in the 2nd, he flailed so wildly at the first pitch that he fell down. Rays pitcher James Shields apparently didn't appreciate the largeness of the swing, and hit Gomez with a pitch. In the top of the third, he misplayed Iwamura's drive to center, twisting back and forth until he fell down, and the ball sailed over his head for a triple. Dan Gladden: "That's what you're going to get with this kid." He doubled over 3rd base in the fourth, and easily scored on Joe Mauer's bloop single to left. In the top of the 5th, he came up lame while making a running catch in left-center. They say it's just a cramp and he's day-to-day. Gomez says he wants to play tomorrow. Gardy would be absolutely nuts to let him.
(This brings up another reason the Twins shouldn't have had him start the season in the Majors: if he gets hurt and goes on the DL, his service time clock will be ticking away. If he gets hurt in the minors, no worries. Can we get a do-over? Please?)
Hearing Bartlett go 3-4 with a SB got me thinking. It's no use fixating on what might have been, so I'll just mention this one time, then take Garth Elgar's advice (Live in the now, man!). The Twins had too many young players, too many guys who had bad years last year, to be comfortable sticking with the hand they had at the end of last season. But what if they'd signed most of the same free agents, but hadn't traded Garza or Santana, believing that 2 first-rounders plus one more season of the best pitcher in baseball drawing crowds (and a chance at the title) were worth the same as the Mets' package. As we've seen this spring play out, the likely Twins opening day roster would have been:
CF - Span
SS - Bartlett
C - Mauer
1B - Morneau
RF - Cuddyer
LF - Kubel
3B - Lamb
DH - Ruiz/Monroe
2B - Punto/Tolbert
C - Redman
Bench - Jon Knott
I would have taken a flyer on a free agent 2B like Marcus Giles - he plays great defense, he can't hit any worse than Punto, and when he's on, he's got decent pop. But it's the pitching staff that really makes me wistful:
1P - Santana
2P - Baker
3P - Garza
4P - Bonser
5P - Slowey
Bullpen - exactly the same as the actual 2008 bullpen.
Liriano starts the year in the minors, and when he's got his feel back, he can come up. At that time, the Twins could trade Bonser and maybe one other prospect for a proper second baseman. If anyone falters, bring up Blackburn. Should they still give Nathan the extension? Why not? They could use the money they spent on Livan to give him the raise for this year, and with Santana still likely off the books for 2009, they could afford him just as easily as they can in the real world.
I think that roster is better than what the Twins will actually take north. It took a little faith to feel good about the possibilities of that group, but not an unrealistic amount. You just have to believe that the guys are capable of performing closer to their 2006 level than 2007, and that the young pitchers are ready come into their own. With Santana anchoring the rotation, and Neshek and Nathan slamming the door in the 8th and 9th innings, I think the what-if Twins team would have been capable of 90 wins. In a tough division, that might be enough - the Tigers and Indians are not without their weaknesses.
I'm not going to obsess over it, but I suspect that if we were to compile the numbers of that group of players at the end of the season, we'd find a team that could have produced better results than the team Bill Smith assembled.
Oh, well - easy come, easy go.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
The Hernandez Strategy
No, that's not the title of the lost Robert Ludlum thriller. It's how the Twins should extricate themselves from the mess they got themselves into when they signed Livan Hernandez.
After his pathetic start this weekend, I got really nervous about how much damage he was going to do to the Twins before he goes the way of Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, and Tony Batista. It certainly raised my eyebrows when neither he nor Gardy seemed the least bit concerned. "He knows how to pitch" says Gardy. "I always do bad in spring" says Livan.
I agree that Hernandez knows how to pitch. However, his stuff is so hittable at this stage of his career, his guile and craftiness won't be able to carry him very far. As for the bad spring comment, I decided to look it up.
He doesn't always do bad in spring. Not at all. His spring lines from the past 5 seasons:
2003: 15.2 IP, 6.59 ERA, 1.60 WHIP
2004: 19 IP, 2.37 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
2005: 33 IP, 2.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
2006: 20 IP, 1.80 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
2007: 10.1 IP, 13.06 ERA, 2.52 WHIP(!)
2003 was not particularly good, but the next three years were exactly what you'd like to see from your ace. He went on to have solid performances in each of those seasons (though he slipped substantially in 2006). Last year's spring was atrocious, and this year's (13 IP, 9.69 ERA, 2.15 WHIP) isn't much better so far. However, last year he answered the bell and had a very solid April and May, combining to go 5-2 over his first 11 starts, with 73 IP, 3.58 ERA, and 1.46 WHIP.
The Twins are hoping for similar production this spring, and there's hope he'll deliver. Over the last 6 years of his career, Hernandez has been very effective in April and May. Even as his overall numbers have declined over the past three seasons, his combined April/May numbers from 2005-2007 are decent:
35 starts, 233 IP, 4.09 ERA, .272 BA against
That's reasonably close to Carlos Silva. He turned out to be rather valuable this off-season. If Hernandez' ERA is anywhere close to 4.00 on May 31, the Twins should find someone to trade him to as quickly as possible. Sell high!
If they wait until June, it may be too late. June has been Livan's worst month throughout his career. Over the past three seasons, his combined June line is 99 IP, 5.69 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and .322 opponent's BA. No matter how well he pitches in the spring, he always goes in the tank in June. There's no reason to think this year will be any different. After he drops that type of performance, his trade value will diminish considerably. The Twins should pawn him off on some poor sucker while they still can!
Every summer, some team loses a starter and is looking for a proven innings-eater to help carry the rotation through the summer. By the end May the Twins will be in a wonderful position to help that team out.
That's because Rochester is going to have one or more starting pitchers in the rotation who would earn a spot on the opening day roster were Livan not in the way. If Baker and Liriano manage to overcome their setbacks and start the season in the rotation, I think it's likely that Nick Blackburn, Philip Humber, and Glen Perkins or Brian Bass (assuming he clears waivers) will be proving all they need to prove for 11 or so AAA starts. To say nothing of Brian Duensing or Kevin Mulvey. I'm probably forgetting somebody. The point is, somebody will be more than deserving of a shot in the Twins rotation by June.
So, best-case scenario: Livan gives the Twins about 70 competent innings in April and May, then gets shipped out for a decent return, while making room for a promising prospect. Two things could de-rail this plan:
1. The Twins don't have the sense to cash out after 2 months. It could be tough to part with someone who appears to be pitching well. But if they really want him to pitch 200+ innings in a Twins uniform, they should be prepared for at least 130 of those innings to totally suck.
2. Harrowing thought: what happens every June? At least 15 games of interleague play. Meaning, that was the month of the season when Hernandez was facing AL hitters. Maybe the reason Livan's numbers have been so mind-boggling awful every June has something to with the fact that he was up against DHs instead of pitchers, and stronger hitters overall. If that truly is the cause, his April may turn out to be like his past Junes. In that case, the Twins may not find a taker for him, and they'll just have to release him. Give them credit, they did it with Ponson et al. That outcome would certainly make his signing seem like a waste of money, though.
I'm rooting for history to repeat itself, and for Bill Smith to have the nerve to trade a winner while his value is still high.
But I'm preparing for a Ponson repeat as well.
After his pathetic start this weekend, I got really nervous about how much damage he was going to do to the Twins before he goes the way of Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, and Tony Batista. It certainly raised my eyebrows when neither he nor Gardy seemed the least bit concerned. "He knows how to pitch" says Gardy. "I always do bad in spring" says Livan.
I agree that Hernandez knows how to pitch. However, his stuff is so hittable at this stage of his career, his guile and craftiness won't be able to carry him very far. As for the bad spring comment, I decided to look it up.
He doesn't always do bad in spring. Not at all. His spring lines from the past 5 seasons:
2003: 15.2 IP, 6.59 ERA, 1.60 WHIP
2004: 19 IP, 2.37 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
2005: 33 IP, 2.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
2006: 20 IP, 1.80 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
2007: 10.1 IP, 13.06 ERA, 2.52 WHIP(!)
2003 was not particularly good, but the next three years were exactly what you'd like to see from your ace. He went on to have solid performances in each of those seasons (though he slipped substantially in 2006). Last year's spring was atrocious, and this year's (13 IP, 9.69 ERA, 2.15 WHIP) isn't much better so far. However, last year he answered the bell and had a very solid April and May, combining to go 5-2 over his first 11 starts, with 73 IP, 3.58 ERA, and 1.46 WHIP.
The Twins are hoping for similar production this spring, and there's hope he'll deliver. Over the last 6 years of his career, Hernandez has been very effective in April and May. Even as his overall numbers have declined over the past three seasons, his combined April/May numbers from 2005-2007 are decent:
35 starts, 233 IP, 4.09 ERA, .272 BA against
That's reasonably close to Carlos Silva. He turned out to be rather valuable this off-season. If Hernandez' ERA is anywhere close to 4.00 on May 31, the Twins should find someone to trade him to as quickly as possible. Sell high!
If they wait until June, it may be too late. June has been Livan's worst month throughout his career. Over the past three seasons, his combined June line is 99 IP, 5.69 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and .322 opponent's BA. No matter how well he pitches in the spring, he always goes in the tank in June. There's no reason to think this year will be any different. After he drops that type of performance, his trade value will diminish considerably. The Twins should pawn him off on some poor sucker while they still can!
Every summer, some team loses a starter and is looking for a proven innings-eater to help carry the rotation through the summer. By the end May the Twins will be in a wonderful position to help that team out.
That's because Rochester is going to have one or more starting pitchers in the rotation who would earn a spot on the opening day roster were Livan not in the way. If Baker and Liriano manage to overcome their setbacks and start the season in the rotation, I think it's likely that Nick Blackburn, Philip Humber, and Glen Perkins or Brian Bass (assuming he clears waivers) will be proving all they need to prove for 11 or so AAA starts. To say nothing of Brian Duensing or Kevin Mulvey. I'm probably forgetting somebody. The point is, somebody will be more than deserving of a shot in the Twins rotation by June.
So, best-case scenario: Livan gives the Twins about 70 competent innings in April and May, then gets shipped out for a decent return, while making room for a promising prospect. Two things could de-rail this plan:
1. The Twins don't have the sense to cash out after 2 months. It could be tough to part with someone who appears to be pitching well. But if they really want him to pitch 200+ innings in a Twins uniform, they should be prepared for at least 130 of those innings to totally suck.
2. Harrowing thought: what happens every June? At least 15 games of interleague play. Meaning, that was the month of the season when Hernandez was facing AL hitters. Maybe the reason Livan's numbers have been so mind-boggling awful every June has something to with the fact that he was up against DHs instead of pitchers, and stronger hitters overall. If that truly is the cause, his April may turn out to be like his past Junes. In that case, the Twins may not find a taker for him, and they'll just have to release him. Give them credit, they did it with Ponson et al. That outcome would certainly make his signing seem like a waste of money, though.
I'm rooting for history to repeat itself, and for Bill Smith to have the nerve to trade a winner while his value is still high.
But I'm preparing for a Ponson repeat as well.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Livan Large
Well, crap.
No sooner do I post a projected rotation, than the Twins sign Livan Hernandez to a 1-year, $5 million contract (with incentives up to $7 million!). Here, at last, is the dreaded free agent signing, this year's Sidney Ponson/Tony Batista.
We all knew this was coming.
Gardy and the Twins weren't likely to have the nerve to field a rotation full of mostly unproven youngsters, no matter how high their upside. They had already invited Zach Day to camp, and Randy Keisler. Now they add Hernandez, and at $5 million, you can be sure he'll be heading north the last weekend of March.
It's hard to be enthusiastic about a guy who put up a 4.93 ERA in the NL last season. Surely, there are guys who finished last year in Rochester who can do at least as well as that, right?
Well, eventually, yes. But as I pointed out earlier, most of our AAA studs who have rampaged through the minors get lit up pretty badly the first time they run into Major League hitters. In most cases, they benefit from filling out their time at AAA a bit more. I think that's probably the case for Humber, Duensing, and Blackburn, the guys who are closest at the moment.
Humber has so far logged 148 innings above AA, and most of that was spent recovering from Tommy John surgery. I'd feel more comfortable giving him a couple more months in Rochester to get his velocity and K/9 back up toward pre-surgery levels.
Blackburn rocketed through 3 levels of the organization last season, but in so doing has worked just 112.1 innings above AA. His 2007 numbers so far exceeded his career averages, I'd like to see if he can sustain that level of performance for a couple months before considering him fully ready to pitch in the big leagues full time.
Duensing has also been moving quickly through the system. He's amassed just 116.2 innings above AA, and 216.2 innings above A+. If his first 9 starts at Rochester this year are like his first 9 at New Britain in 2007 (4-1, 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), then the Twins can think about calling him up in June.
Meanwhile, the rest of the rotation I've projected (Baker, Liriano, Bonser and Slowey) is young and inexperienced. Liriano will likely be on a pitch-count to start the year, and Bonser has yet to show an ability to pitch deep into games. I expect the Twins to field a 7-man bullpen, but even that could be taxed if they have to pitch more than 3 innings a night.
Hernandez gives the Twins a veteran starter to appease the manager, and a proven workhorse to save the bullpen every fifth day. His lowest innings total in the past 10 seasons is 199.2 - he leads the majors in IP over that span. Until recently, he'd been pretty effective at keeping runs off the board, too (although he had the good fortune to be playing in some of the better pitcher's parks in the NL). He's likely to give the Twins 6+ innings a start, with an ERA between 4.50-5.00. That's not great, but it's probably better than the younger guys could give if they were rushed to the majors, and then they'd likely be sent down again anyway. This way, they can get their work in at Rochester, and Livan can give the bullpen a rest.
Hopefully, he'll pitch well enough to draw some appealing trade offers from contenders in June and July. Since he'll be a free agent again next year, he'll have every incentive to produce to the best of his ability. The Twins might be able to pick up a couple more nice pieces, make space for a talented (and well-prepared) rookie, and send Livan to a contender. A good deal for everybody.
So, based on the assumption that Livan will not be with the team in August, I think this signing is OK. We'll see how it works out...
No sooner do I post a projected rotation, than the Twins sign Livan Hernandez to a 1-year, $5 million contract (with incentives up to $7 million!). Here, at last, is the dreaded free agent signing, this year's Sidney Ponson/Tony Batista.
We all knew this was coming.
Gardy and the Twins weren't likely to have the nerve to field a rotation full of mostly unproven youngsters, no matter how high their upside. They had already invited Zach Day to camp, and Randy Keisler. Now they add Hernandez, and at $5 million, you can be sure he'll be heading north the last weekend of March.
It's hard to be enthusiastic about a guy who put up a 4.93 ERA in the NL last season. Surely, there are guys who finished last year in Rochester who can do at least as well as that, right?
Well, eventually, yes. But as I pointed out earlier, most of our AAA studs who have rampaged through the minors get lit up pretty badly the first time they run into Major League hitters. In most cases, they benefit from filling out their time at AAA a bit more. I think that's probably the case for Humber, Duensing, and Blackburn, the guys who are closest at the moment.
Humber has so far logged 148 innings above AA, and most of that was spent recovering from Tommy John surgery. I'd feel more comfortable giving him a couple more months in Rochester to get his velocity and K/9 back up toward pre-surgery levels.
Blackburn rocketed through 3 levels of the organization last season, but in so doing has worked just 112.1 innings above AA. His 2007 numbers so far exceeded his career averages, I'd like to see if he can sustain that level of performance for a couple months before considering him fully ready to pitch in the big leagues full time.
Duensing has also been moving quickly through the system. He's amassed just 116.2 innings above AA, and 216.2 innings above A+. If his first 9 starts at Rochester this year are like his first 9 at New Britain in 2007 (4-1, 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), then the Twins can think about calling him up in June.
Meanwhile, the rest of the rotation I've projected (Baker, Liriano, Bonser and Slowey) is young and inexperienced. Liriano will likely be on a pitch-count to start the year, and Bonser has yet to show an ability to pitch deep into games. I expect the Twins to field a 7-man bullpen, but even that could be taxed if they have to pitch more than 3 innings a night.
Hernandez gives the Twins a veteran starter to appease the manager, and a proven workhorse to save the bullpen every fifth day. His lowest innings total in the past 10 seasons is 199.2 - he leads the majors in IP over that span. Until recently, he'd been pretty effective at keeping runs off the board, too (although he had the good fortune to be playing in some of the better pitcher's parks in the NL). He's likely to give the Twins 6+ innings a start, with an ERA between 4.50-5.00. That's not great, but it's probably better than the younger guys could give if they were rushed to the majors, and then they'd likely be sent down again anyway. This way, they can get their work in at Rochester, and Livan can give the bullpen a rest.
Hopefully, he'll pitch well enough to draw some appealing trade offers from contenders in June and July. Since he'll be a free agent again next year, he'll have every incentive to produce to the best of his ability. The Twins might be able to pick up a couple more nice pieces, make space for a talented (and well-prepared) rookie, and send Livan to a contender. A good deal for everybody.
So, based on the assumption that Livan will not be with the team in August, I think this signing is OK. We'll see how it works out...
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