Hope

Twins 2, Mariners 5

Twins 2, Mariners 1

We're 1/4 of the way through the season. This 13-27 stretch is the worst since the 2001 Twins came out of the All-Star break 11-30. But don't write them off just yet. There was some very encouraging news coming out of Tuesday night's recap. First, feast your eyes on this beauty:

7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

For the 1st time all season, Francisco Liriano pitched like he's supposed to. I know the Mariners aren't much better at hitting than the Twins are. But opposing lineups haven't been hitting Liriano too much lately. They've been walking. In this game, Liriano showed both improved control (17/26 batters faced started with strike 1) and a killer instinct once he got them to 2 strikes. Where has that been all season? Well... look at his stats by catcher:

Mauer - 7.71 ERA, 7.7 BB/9, 7.7 K/9

Rivera - 1.29 ERA, 1.3 BB/9, 11.6 K/9

Butera - 6.84 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 4.4 K/9

Small sample sizes all. Liriano has been horribly erratic, and he'll have to limit the walks if he's going to succeed going forward. But it appears that Butera isn't calling the game in such a way that would elicit swinging strikes. Looking at the staff as a whole:

Mauer - 4.04 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9

Rivera - 3.45 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 4.1 BB/9

Holm - 5.44 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

Butera - 5.58 ERA, 5.2 K/9, 4.1 BB/9

When Butera is behind the plate, all Twins pitchers have a terrible K/BB ratio. I actually find that very encouraging. As terrificly as Liriano and Nick Blackburn have done with Rivera behind the plate, I would think Gardy would want to keep that chemistry going. Since Butera and Rivera are both hitting horribly, why not go with the guy who's getting good pitching performances? And Joe Mauer will return some day. When he does, the K/BB ratio will improve, making the pitching better even as the catching spot is transformed from an automatic out into a .400+ OBP. Maybe seeing Butera outplayed by a replacement-level journeyman will help Bill Smith realize how badly the Twins need a proper backup C, and he'll do what it takes to get one.

Jason Repko started his rehab assignment yesterday, and went 2 for 5 with a HR. He will soon take the place of Ben Revere and his .167 OBP. Jim Thome is swinging the bat in Florida and should return within a week. Soon he'll be the one pinch-hitting for Rivera and Butera and Casilla. Delmon Young was rushed back too soon (evidently, a dozen or so PA against Rookie-ball pitching doesn't prepare you to face the likes of Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow and Michael Pineda), but he'll find his stroke soon enough. Tsuyoshi Nishioka is running in Florida and within a couple of weeks will be sending Matt Tolbert's and Casilla's sub-.250 OBPs out of the starting lineup. Danny Valencia is playing very well, just having unsustainably bad luck. Michael Cuddyer doesn't seem like he's doing much, but look at this:

Cuddyer 2008-2010: .269/.337/.451

Cuddyer since 4/12/11: .298/.360/.439

Once he made up the 30 or so PA he missed in spring training, he's played as well as we had any right to expect. Though his power has been lacking, and he hasn't done much with RISP, he's far from a liability.

This lineup is destined to score more runs, which brings me to the best news of all:

The Twins have been held to 3 or fewer runs in 28 of 40 games, and are 4-24 in those games.

Isn't that fantastic? That means the Twins are 9-3 in games in which they score at least 4 runs. (And 2 of the 3 losses were blown saves!) A .750 winning percentage can turn this season around very quickly, especially with the schedule lightening up a bit. They just have to score one more R/G. And they will.

Every team goes the rough spells. Look at the way the Rays and Red Sox started the season. Look at the way the Yankees are playing now. But every team has periods of prolonged success, as well. The 2001 team that was bad enough to go 11-30 was also good enough to start the season 29-12. A surge like that would get the Twins back over .500 by the mid-point of the season. And the '01 Twins weren't the only ones to have hot streaks:

2002: Beginning on June 30th, the Twins went 24-7.

2003: Coming out of the break, the Twins went 45-20 to take the division title.

2004: From August 15th to September 16th, the Twins went 23-7 to take the division title.

2005: They began the season 35-22 before fading to just over .500 when it was all over.

2006: Beginning June 8th, the Twins finished the season 71-33 to steal the division on the last day.

2007: From May 22nd through July 15th, the Twins had a 29-19 run.

2008: From June 16th to the end of August, they went 45-25.

2009: The Twins went 17-4 over the final 3 weeks to steal the division in game 163.

2010: Starting one game after the ASB, they went 46-17 to wrap up the division with 10 games yet to play.

Every Twins team for a decade has had a period of sustained winning. Any of those periods, applied to the 2011 team, would turn the season around.

The good times are coming. Will it be too late when they arrive?

The Most Unimpressive

Twins 1, White Sox 0

Like every other Fantasy Baseball owner (who didn't drop him), I had Francisco Liriano on the bench for this game. So, naturally, the SOB pulls out the 1st CG shutout of his career. On the way to that, he managed to hand out another 6 BB while striking out only 2. My league scores those, so in that sense I'm glad I had him on the bench. But Liriano managed to get 27 outs from 24 balls in play, pitching the 1st no-hitter for the Twins since Eric Milton's in September of 1999. (I was working nights in those days, and that game started at 11:00 AM on a Saturday in order to accommodate a Gopher football game that night, so I slept through it. Yet another reason to be glad the Twins are out of the Metrodome.)

According to Game Scores, this was about the most unimpressive no-hitter in the last 30 years. Of course, that's like me saying that the 2006 Cardinals are the worst team ever to win a World Series. I'm sure that really bugs them every time they put their rings on. Things had been so bad for Liriano - his spot in the rotation was apparently in jeopardy - and for the Twins as a whole. They needed something good to happen, anything to spark them out of their slump. And while DIPS people will discount this accomplishment as a quirk of luck, I would remind them that the balls the Sox put in play were generally pretty poorly hit. How much of that is a credit to Liriano and how much a result of facing a Sox lineup that is every bit as cold as the Twins' I don't know. But anytime a pitcher can hold a team of Major League batters hitless for a full 9 innings, the guy probably deserves some props.

The control problems Liriano continued to show certainly don't make me any more confident about what he'll be able to give in his next start. I'm very much hoping that the Twins will use Thursday's off day to give him some extra rest, starting Nick Blackburn on regular rest for Monday's finale in Boston. After throwing 123 pitches, I'm sure he could use an extra day. And I'd much rather have him pitching at home against the Tigers. Because if he walks 6 against the Red Sox, he's going to get killed.

During his meetings with pitching coach Rick Anderson between starts, it was determined that Liriano would avoid using his 2-seamer for awhile. That's his GB pitch, and it was immediately missed, as he gave up more flies than grounders for just the second time this season. But most of those flies came off his changeup, and they tended to be popups. Mixed in properly, it can obviously be an effective pitch, especially if he can get back to getting swings-and-misses with his slider on the other side of the plate. He still needs to do a much better job of throwing strike one, though: he started 19 of 30 plate appearances in this game with a ball.

Whatever you think of the quality of this performance, it was absolutely necessary, because the Twins still can't hit a lick. Jason Kubel excepted, of course. His HR accounted for the only run of the game. I liked the aggressiveness I saw on the bases, though. Danny Valencia tested Juan Pierre's noodle arm and stretched a single into the game's only 2B. And though he was thrown out thanks to a friendly bounce off the wall, Alexi Casilla was right to try to gain second after Edwin Jackson threw past 1st on Casilla's 2-out bunt single. Even after the power comes online, the Twins won't be their best unless they force the issue like that.

Twins 3 White Sox 2

These 2 free-falling teams each battled to be the one to give this game away. The Sox managed a whopping 6 H in this one, despite facing a starter in Blackburn who has averaged 9+ H/9 for his career so far. The Twins' pitchers helped them make up for that by issuing 5 BB and 3 HBP. The Sox declined that generosity by getting picked off, caught stealing, and hitting into 2 DPs.

For their part, the Sox gave the Twins 4 BB, an extra base on an error, and a critical gift base hit when Omar Vizquel failed to cover 1B on Matt Tolbert's sac bunt. The Twins reciprocated by getting picked off twice and caught on an attempted steal of 3B with 2 outs. The Vizquel gaffe proved to be the difference in the game, though, as the Twins used that extra out to score 2 R. But they gave one of them back in the 8th with a Drew Butera PB. C'mon, which of you guys wants to lose this game most? Attaway, White Sox.

Though the Twins did basically nothing in this series to show that they are on their way out of the woods, they did establish that their recent dominance over the Sox and at US Cellular Field is still in play for 2011. Let that be in everybody's heads the next time these 2 teams connect. For the time being, the Twins proved conclusively that they are not the most unimpressive team in the division. And that makes me damn proud.

Better...

Twins 4, Royals 3 (10 innings)

Twins 5, Royals 10

9 runs in 2 games. Not kicking ass yet, but definitely an improvement. The Twins saw 7 of 9 starters reach base in each game, including multi-hit efforts from Denard Span, Matt Tolbert, Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Luke Hughes. Still not slugging very much (just 4 XBH - all doubles), or working counts (4 BB) or creating havoc on the basepaths (1 SB), though. All of those elements will have to be in place before the offense can really take off. Nice to see some of the BAs starting to come up, though.

The back end of the bullpen is working fabulously so far. Liberated from the Closer label, Matt Capps is free to to be a setup workhorse, locking down the 8th inning but often putting out fires in the 7th, too. Joe Nathan and Jose Mijares have kept the opposition quiet since their jittery opening weekend. Dusty Hughes combined with them to shut down the Royals over the last 4 IP of Tuesday night's game on just 50 pitches.

Much has been made of Gardy's pre-game comment that he had asked Francisco Liriano to try to pitch to contact more. Liriano certainly followed that game plan, allowing 19 of the 24 batters he faced to put the ball in play. Those batters accumulated 8 H, all in a hellish 4th inning. In the other 4 IP Liriano completed, he retired 13 batters quietly (Tolbert's throwing error required an extra out), including 4 K and 0 BB. He was averaged just over 3 pitches/PA in the game.

There's a happy medium, I think, in which Liriano would generally pitch to contact, but revert to trying to strike everyone out with RISP. Yesterday, he had a 1-2 count on Billy Butler and an 0-2 count on Wilson Betemit, but didn't try to put either one away with his unhittable slider down and in. Johan Santana was phenomenal at changing his approach with runners on, one of the reasons his career strand rate is so high. Liriano needs to learn to do that, too.

Still, I can't be too upset about the pitches that were actually put into play in that inning. They were just about all at or below the knees. 6 of the 8 H touched the ground in the IF, just a step or so out of the reach of the fielders. The 2 that didn't were a soft liner off the end of the bat and a chip-shot blooper over the drawn-in IF. The Royals didn't really hit anything hard off Liriano all day. On most days, the sort of performance he gave on the mound should have had him beginning the 8th inning with a 3-4 hitter and a very low pitch count.

That being the case, I was surprised that he got a lightning-quick hook when Betemit drew a leadoff BB in the 6th. It was Liriano's only BB of the game. If it had come on 4 straight well out of the zone, I could understand it. But it was a 7-pitch PA, and the 3-2 pitch was no more than belt high over the outer half of the plate. If the ump calls Betemit out there, would Gardy still have yanked Frankie after the next baserunner? I know the offense had just put up a crooked number, and you don't want to risk giving the momentum back, but don't you have to show a little more confidence in your starter there?

Over the last few years, it seems like the Royals get off to a good start thanks to a high team BA, then make easy outs for the next 4 months, then get feisty again in September when they finally ditch their lousy veterans in favor of the kids who've been clobbering AAA all summer. Looks like they may be in store for more of the same in 2011.

Note:

• Joe Benson was going to have to have a tremendous season in order to get the Twins to put him in their plans for 2012 (and consider letting Cuddyer walk after this season). The odds of that happening were lengthened significantly when he was optioned to AA New Britain to start the season, even though he hit .251/.336/.527 there last season on his way to earning the organization's Player of the Year award. I guess they want to see more BA and fewer Ks from him before they'll move him up to Rochester. So far, so good. In his 1st 7 games, Benson hit .393/.433/.571 with 2 doubles, 1 HR, 3/3 SB and an OF assist. His 21.4% K rate over that week is still high, but a major improvement over what he did last year. He isn't likely to keep that slash line up in the coming weeks, but a fast start means that even a few average weeks to follow will have his numbers looking pretty darn good by the end of April. We need to get him up to AAA ASAP.

A True Ace

Things I'm Not Worried About, Part 2

The Twins' early exit from the 2010 postseason prompted a lot of fans to jump to conclusions about the reasons they failed to advance (or even win a game). One idea I heard a lot was that the Twins can't compete in the playoffs because they don't have a True Ace, somebody who always shuts down the opposition whenever he gets the ball. (You know, like Cliff Lee was for the Rangers in the World Series. Wait... whoops!)

I have some questions about that supposition. First, is that really a bigger reason the Twins lost than the 8 R they scored in 3 games or the bullpen's inability to put up zeroes? A lot of pitchers will fail to win when the rest of their team performs like that. Second, and more importantly, do the Twins really lack a True Ace? What exactly constitutes a True Ace, anyway?

An Ace is basically a #1 starter, the guy who gets the ball on opening day. Each of the 30 teams has one of those. Of course, some of those guys would be #2 or #3 guys on bigger payroll teams (or #5 on the Phillies). So we're not looking for the best guy on each of the 30 teams, but rather one of the best 30 pitchers in all of baseball.

How do we determine who those guys are? WAR(P) for pitchers is determined in incompatibly different (and flawed) ways depending on which site you reference. Rather than have someone else try to formulate pitcher value for me, I'm more inclined to look for a convergence of desirable qualities: dependability, stuff, command. An ace takes pressure off his teammates by taking his turn every 5th day, pitching deep into the game, limiting baserunners, getting strikeouts and keeping the score close. So I want to find guys who made the top 30 in IP, WHIP, BB/9, K/9 and HR/9.

Cole Hamels came in 30th in IP with 208.2. The 30th best WHIP in the Majors last year was Ian Kennedy's 1.20. Rodrigo Lopez checked in at #30 in BB/9 with 2.52. 30 guys were able to rack up at least 7.68 K/9, ending with Tommy Hanson. And there were 29 guys ahead of Mark Buerhle's 0.73 HR/9.

Anybody who was on all 5 of those lists must be a True Ace, right? Right, but it's an incredibly short list:

Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright

Any criteria by which Roy Halladay doesn't emerge as a True Ace must be a little flawed. So I'll loosen things up just a bit. How about guys who pitched at least 200 IP, with at least 7.5 K/9, WHIPs under 1.25, BB/9 below 3.0 and HR/9 under 0.9? That got me 4 more names:

Halladay, Roy Oswalt (yikes, that's a good Phillies rotation!), Justin Verlander and Hanson.

Several other very worthy guys just missed in one of the categories: CC Sabathia and Zach Greinke came up a little short with 7.4x K/9, Tim Lincecum and Ubaldo Jiminez had a few too many walks, Dan Haren and Hamels (seriously, Philadelphia!) had HR/9 over 1.0, Josh Johnson and Mat Latos didn't have enough IP. It's still exclusive enough - I'm satisfied that anyone who can meet 4 of the 5 criteria is an Ace, and anybody who can hit all 5 is a True Ace.

The Twins didn't have anyone meet 4 out of 5. Carl Pavano wasn't close in K/9, and just missed with 0.98 HR/9. And Francisco Liriano didn't have enough IP (191.2) and came up just short with a 1.26 WHIP.

About that, though. I followed Liriano particularly closely this season. I made him a high pick for my fantasy team, and I made a bold assertion that he would pitch about as well as Jon Lester in 2010 (Lester hit 4/5 lists). My big takeaway from observing his 2010 is that he gave up an absolutely mind-blowing number of crappy hits. Bloopers just over the IF, slow choppers over the mound, swinging bunts, actual bunts. The number of rallies against him that actually came from a series of well-hit balls was pretty tiny.

His BABIP numbers bear that out. The average BABIP of all Major League pitchers in 2010 was .297. Liriano's was .335. That was 3rd worst in all of baseball among qualified starters. That's some exceptionally bad luck. In spite of that, Liriano still managed to finish 31st in MLB in OPS against, 37th in ERA and 43rd in WHIP. He was elite in a couple of important categories: 5th in K/9 with 9.44 and 4th in HR/9 with 0.42 (he was 1st until his final GS of the season). Do you put any stock in DIPS? (I don't think they give a complete picture, but they're certainly useful.) Liriano was 3rd in FIP (2.66), 2nd in xFIP (3.06) and 3rd in SIERA (3.02).

Substituting the league average BABIP into his numbers, it quickly becomes apparent how awesome Liriano was in 2010. He allowed 522 BIP (730 AB - 201 K - 9 HR + 2 SF). A .297 BA for those 522 AB results in 155 H. That's 20 fewer than he actually allowed. Add those together with his 9 HR and 58 BB and his WHIP drops to 1.16, comfortably within the top 30 in that category. But it's actually even better than that, because those 20 fewer hits would have been converted into at least 20 more outs. Assuming no DP, that adds 6.2 IP to bring his season total to 198.1 IP - just 5 outs short of 200. That larger denominator drops his WHIP to 1.12 - good for 12th in baseball.

If you assume that all 20 of those subtracted H were singles (hardly a fair assumption, but let's be conservative), his TB allowed would be reduced to 239. That makes his new SLG% against .327 - 9th overall. His OBP allowed would drop to .290 (14th). His new opponents' OPS would be .617 (9th).

Those adjustments show that Liriano, given ordinary luck, would have been easily one of the the top 30 pitchers in baseball last year, a legitimate Ace. As for his IP total, the only other category in which he comes up just short of True Ace criteria, that can be rather easily accounted for by his position as the Twins' #5 starter at the beginning of the season. There was enough doubt about his ability after 2009 that some were even calling for him to move the bullpen in spring training, particularly after the season-ending injury to Joe Nathan. Had Liriano been given the #1 or #2 spot in the rotation that we now clearly see that he deserved, he would have certainly made at least one more start in 2010, and passed the 200 IP threshold with only 1.2 IP in that 32nd GS.

It would be fair to question at this point whether Liriano really deserves a discount based on his poor BABIP. I'd be the first to admit that DIPS are missing something crucial about pitcher ability. For example, Johan Santana nearly always outperforms his FIP and xFIP (I think this is because he's exceptionally good at getting himself out of jams - as evidenced by his higher than average strand rates). And, for me, Nick Blackburn's summer troubles had less to do with some inevitable regression of BABIP than they did with him simply pitching like ass. Was something like that dogging Liriano last year? Did he deserve to give up all those hits?

Permit me to slice and dice his season. His first 5 GS were stupendous, particularly after the 5 BB grind in his 1st appearance in Chicago. He combined to go 4-0 with 36 IP, 26 H, 6 ER, 0 HR, 13 BB and 36 K while winning the AL Pitcher of the Month award for April despite pitching in just 4 games. His BABIP over that stretch was an only slightly better than league average .289.

From there to the All Star Break, he made 12 starts, totaling 71.1 IP, 81 H, 40 ER, 2 HR, 17 BB and 81 K. Even if you add in his 6 HBP, that's still fewer free passes per 9 IP than in the earlier stretch, and the K/9 is better. Both HR came in the same lousy start in Boston on May 20th. Despite improved peripherals, Liriano's ERA over these 12 GS was more than 3 times worse than his 1st 5 starts, thanks to an absurdly high .391 BABIP, and he went 2-7.

Even so, he delivered QS in 7 of the 12 games. Of the 5 he didn't, 2 (May 20th and July 9th) were bad days - even great pitchers will have a couple of games when they get lit up. The other 3 merit special attention:

• First there was the May 8th game against Baltimore, in which Liriano gave up a season-high 10 H in 6 IP. All of the 5 ER he allowed came with 2 outs. Does he have trouble finishing off innings? Did he lose his focus? See for yourself. Flip through those O's highlights. You only get to see the RBI hits, but notice how their announcers keep saying things like, "Consistent with their other hits in the inning: a dying quail!" and, "...another hit that did not go out of the infield," and "This is a seeing-eye ball here!" Also notice who's playing SS for the Twins: Brendan Harris. This was the 3rd game after JJ Hardy's wrist injury put him on the shelf for several weeks.
• Let's look at June 23rd in Milwaukee. Liriano lasted just 5 IP, but that was only because Gardy elected to lift him for a PH in the top of the 6th. Liriano was at just 77 pitches and surely would have come out for the 6th in an AL park. And, as for the 2 RBI hits he allowed, check them out. One is about a 4-hopper up the middle, and the other is a groundball double past Michael Cuddyer at 3rd, which was subsequently butchered in the LF corner by Delmon Young, allowing Rickie Weeks to score easily from 1B. Neither ball looked like it was particularly squared up by the hitter.
• Liriano's next start was June 28th against the Tigers. The first 6 batters reached on about 15 pitches: a HBP and 5 straight hits (the first of which was a bunt single) led to 4 quick ER. He gave up 2 more hits in the 2nd, including a slow roller to SS that moved the lead runner to 3rd where he could score on the ensuing groundout. A lousy start, yet Liriano lasted into the 7th inning, where he was chased by 2 straight 1st-pitch bunts - one a single, the 2nd a Sac that didn't result in an out when Orlando Hudson dropped Justin Morneau's throw (there's at least one of the 5 outs Liriano needed to get to 200 IP). At the end of the day, Liriano had given up 6 ER on 9 H and 2 BB with 6 K in 6 IP. He wasn't sharp at the beginning of the game, he had a little bad luck, the Tigers were hot. But he still hung around, kept the team in the game (it was 5-4 Tigers when he was pulled) and saved the bullpen until the 7th.

From the 1st series after the All-Star Break to the 3-game sweep in Chicago that effectively sealed the division title for the Twins, Liriano went 8-0 in 11 GS. His combined line was 71 IP, 60 H, 19 ER, 2 HR, 25 BB, 72 K. His BABIP over that stretch was .304, again reasonably close to the league average. He failed to deliver a QS in just 3 of those 11 GS:

• August 6th in Cleveland. I had a nice rant about this one at the time. Superficially resembled the Tigers game I just described in that he allowed 7 of the first 11 batters to reach, resulting in 4 ER. But it was really more like the Orioles game, because just about all the hits he gave up were on seeing-eye grounders.
• His next start in Chicago featured another 1st inning jam. 4 straight Sox reached after 2 were out, culminating in this impressive RBI single from AJ Pierzynski. He had to battle in the 5th and 6th, and was pulled 1 out shy of a QS. 7 H, 2 BB, 2 HBP, but only 1 run allowed.
• The next was also against Chicago on August 18th. Liriano wasn't very good in this one, allowing 5 ER on 6 H (including the first HR he'd allowed in 3 months, a 3-run jack on the heels of 2 BB) and 4 BB in just 5 IP. The only thing I could say in his defense is that the 5th run came home as a result of consecutive missed GIDP opportunities.

His final 3 GS make their own little section. He lasted just 13.1 IP combined over those 3 games, though the shortest of those was the result of an illness that came on after 3 IP. But what really makes these games stand out is the fact the Liriano allowed 5 HR in them, one more than he'd given up in his previous 28 GS, a span of 178.1 IP. The whole team lost focus after they vanquished the White Sox, and I think he was guilty of that, too. He also was probably worn out after a full season workload that exceeded anything he'd achieved previously, especially if you consider the 48.2 IP he added in winter ball in December and January. Whatever the reason, those last 3 games are so far out of character with the rest of his 2010, I don't think they're terribly indicative of what we can expect from him going forward.

If we add the two stretches in which Liriano was himself and enjoying basically league average BABIP, he went 12-0 over 16 GS (the Twins won 15 of those games). He amassed 107 IP (6.2 IP/GS) with a 2.10 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 0.2 HR/9, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9. Definitely an Ace, and only 3 BB from being a True Ace.

If he can more or less repeat his 2010 peripherals next year, I expect Liriano to deliver those kinds of numbers over 33-34 GS. (That's especially since he won't have any winter ball to extend his workload this time around.) 200+ IP of awesome stuff and command, plus merely ordinary luck on balls in play, should easily land him in the discussion of who's the best pitcher in baseball. And if he should enjoy better than average luck, we could be in store for something very special.

Either way, I'd confidently hand him the ball on opening day, and for the 1st game of the postseason if the Twins should make it there again. Liriano pitched well enough last season to belong among the best in the game. Going into his age 27 season in 2011, what should be his prime, I don't see any reason to expect less from him.

Ace in the Hole

Twins 5, Indians 1

This was more like what I expect from Kevin Slowey: accurate, efficient, victorious. 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER (on a solo HR), 0 BB and 9 K, all in just 98 pitches. The Indians came into the series hitting horribly, so why not attack the strike zone? This was the first truly Slowey-esque performance of the year, and hopefully a sign of more to come.

The offense ground yet another starter out of the game early. Justin Masterson found himself at 96 pitches after just 4 IP, having issued 5 BB to go along with 5 H and 6 K. For all that trouble he put himself in, it was actually his defense which let him down. By failing to get any outs on what should have been an inning-ending DP, they opened the door for the Twins to score 4 R in the 3rd and coast the rest of way.

Twins 6, Indians 0

Are you on the Francisco Liriano bandwagon yet? He went unscored upon for the second straight outing, allowing just 6 H and 2 BB with 6 K in 8 IP. When the Indians put the ball in play, they typically put it on the ground, including a GIDP to get out of the only real jam Liriano was in all night. As shaky as his control was in his first start, he's just one strike short of having allowed 1 ER in his first 21 IP, with 0 HR allowed. We're in business.

Few hits for the offense again, but 6 more BB, so when three of the hits came, there were RISP to drive in. Michael Cuddyer did big damage with a solo HR and 2-RBI 3B to pile on after Brendan Harris and Denard Span delivered 2-out singles in the 2nd.

Twins 1, Indians 8

Winning the first 2 games of a series does wonders for my blood pressure in the finale. I shrugged as the Indians blooped and bled hit after hit into the holes in the Twins' defense. The box score looks ugly, but Scott Baker was really in pretty decent form. He just had appallingly bad luck on balls in play. Alex Burnett finally allowed his first runs in relief. Shrug.

The Twins' offense did basically nothing the whole series and still won 2 of 3. Their only run today came courtesy of a dropped foul ball leading to a BB, followed by a balk, then a 2-out hit from Justin Morneau. Drew Butera got his first big league hit. They will be few and far between, I think.

Notes:

• The Twins completed their first home stand at Target Field 6-3. They can't be comfortable there yet, but it doesn't seem to matter so far.
• They didn't commit an error in those 9 games, and have made only 1 in 16 games to start the season.
• After beginning the season 1 for 30 with 10 K, top prospect Aaron Hicks is 6 for his last 15 with a 2B and HR (though 6 more K). His 7 BB in 12 games give him a still very good .111 IsoD.

The Best #5 Starter in Baseball

Francisco Liriano sewed up the 5th starter job this afternoon by pitching 6 scoreless innings against the Pirates. Well, they were wearing Pittsburgh uniforms. As was regularly the case in winter ball, Liriano devoured the scrubs, allowing 3 H and 3 BB (shocking - 1 more than he'd allowed all spring!) with 8 K. That brings his spring line to:

20 IP, 19 H, 6 ER, 1 HR, 5 BB, 30 K, 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 0.5 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 13.5 K/9, 2.33 G/F

And here's what he did in winter ball:

48.2 IP, 32 H, 4 ER, 0 HR, 7 BB, 64 K, 0.74 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9, 11.8 K/9, 1.55 G/F

And here's what he did in 2006:

129 IP, 89 H, 29 ER, 9 HR, 32 BB, 144 K, 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 0.7 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 2.19 G/F

Some of his spring training numbers aren't quite as good as 2006, and it's a tiny sample size, and the competition was often less than stellar. But remember, if he's even 4/5 the pitcher he was his rookie year (WHIP <> 8.0) he'll be one of the 20 best starters in the league, and the best guy in the Twins' rotation. His 20 IP this spring are safely within those parameters.

I'm not sure what it served to wait so long to give Liriano this job. Even now, Gardy is reluctant to confirm that he won the spot. Is that out of respect for what Brian Duensing did last season? Even he must know that he's nowhere near as good as Liriano. If he shuts out the Yankees for 6 innings tomorrow, would they give him the spot instead? I think there's something to be said for decisiveness - it must be helpful to players to know what their role will be as soon as possible. At least they'd probably like to know more than a week before the season starts.

I still expect Duensing to make the team as the long reliever, and he'll be well suited to that role. I'm rooting for Wilson Ramos to win the backup C job, and it sounds like most of the Twins' players and coaches are, too. They want to start the season with the best players available, and they know Drew Butera isn't the best. Whatever they decide, hopefully we'll all know about it tomorrow.

Twins/Rays: The Box Score Lies!

Twins 3, Rays 5

There were a few less than thrilling parts of the box score as the Twins saw their 6-game winning streak snapped this afternoon. Box score, smox shmore. In case you didn't get to follow the game today, here's what really happened:

Francisco Liriano: 4 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
No, Liriano did not have his best stuff today, although he wasn't off by much. His fastball typically missed Joe Mauer's target by only a couple of inches. Unfortunately, the direction in which it missed was usually up and toward the middle of the plate. Still, had the Rays been in the mood to take a couple of pitches, he would have been ahead every time. But since their game plan seemed to be to attack the fastball early in the count, this didn't work out so well for Liriano.

Those who still senselessly clamor for Liriano to become the closer should know that the 1st was his worst inning, as 5 of the 6 hitters he faced put the ball in play - hard. JJ Hardy picked off a Jason Bartlett one-hop liner deep in the hole at SS, quickly planted and delivered a strike to Justin Morneau at 1B. Without that play, it would have been a really ugly inning. Carl Crawford and Ben Zobrist each lined the 2nd strikes they saw for singles. Carlos Pena struck out on 3 pitches because 1) he's left-handed, 2) he strikes out a lot, and 3) Liriano threw him excellent sliders for swinging strikes 2 and 3. When Liriano got ahead of the right-handed BJ Upton 0-1, I was hoping they'd continue that pattern, since the slider looked like it was as sharp as ever. But Mauer called for a fastball in, and it caught just enough of the plate for Upton to line it into LF for a 1-0 lead. Pat Burrell lined out to CF to end the inning.

Of the 14 hitters Liriano faced the rest of the day, only 8 put the ball in play, but 4 got hits. There were 2 doubles on which I credit the hitters for taking the fastball the opposite way (Liriano didn't appear to miss his spot on either). The other 2 hits drove in runs. The 4-pitch BB to Zobrist in the 3rd should have been erased on an inning-ending pickoff, but Hardy was late covering 2nd and Morneau's throw went behind him. (The box score gives Zobrist a SB off Liriano/Mauer. Lies! Liriano picked him off and Mauer didn't even touch the ball). The next pitch was Liriano's last real mistake of the game, a fastball in the middle of the plate that Upton drove to the gap in left center for an RBI 2B. For me, that run is borderline unearned. As for the 4th inning, with a runner on 2nd, Liriano got a bleeder up the middle that neither Hardy nor Orlando Hudson were able to come up with (though each got leather on it). Liriano got the next 2 hitters on a shallow fly out and a grounder to 2B.

So, despite not being very sharp, Liriano had 6 K against only 1 BB in 4 IP, giving him a 22/2 K/BB ratio in 14 IP for the spring. I thought he adjusted to his stuff pretty well, was better in the later innings and, with a little bit better work from his defense, might have given up fewer runs.

Brian Duensing pitched the other 4 innings, allowing 2 unearned runs on 2 H with 0 BB and 2 K. He was easily the best he's been this spring. Far from placing him in Liriano's league as far the 5th starter competition, I think this outing reinforces that Duensing could be pretty good in the roll he actually filled in this game: long-relief. Now I think it's up to Clay Condrey to show everybody that he can put up a few zeroes, too.

The error that resulted in those unearned runs seems to have been charged to Morneau. That's just wrong. The 7th inning began when James Bereford, Beloit's 2009 SS, having just been inserted in place of Hardy, fielded a routine grounder. I'm not aware of him playing in any other big-league spring training games, so he was probably a little keyed up. It looked like he was trying to slow himself down, because his arm decelerated as he threw to first, and the ball bounced in front of Morneau, who couldn't pick it. That should be an E6 every time.

Other items of note:

Denard Span was caught stealing for the 1st time. He was running on a 3-2 pitch to Hudson, a sensible thing to do with nobody out and a guy who hits a lot of grounders at the plate. It was such an obvious thing to do that I expected LHP David Price to make a token throw over to 1B, and I bet Span did, too. He went home instead, and Span didn't get much of a jump. Hudson swung threw the pitch, and Span was caught at 2B. Span gets charged with the CS, but it shouldn't count as a knock against his base-stealing ability.

Jason Kubel collected 2 H off Price, including an opposite-field HR. Kubel used to be a guy you had to platoon, but the way he's been swinging against lefties this spring, I'm not sure that's the case anymore.

Delmon Young was swinging early in the count, but he was looking for off-speed pitches. He singled on a first-pitch curveball in his 2nd AB. He fell behind 0-2 in the 7th, but battled until he went down and got a slider, driving it over the wall in LF for his first spring HR. Through 39 spring PA, Young is hitting .250/.308/.500 with an 8/3 K/BB ratio. He has more work to do, but he's certainly earning the opportunity to be in the regular lineup in April.

Mauer played the entire game behind the plate, the Twins used only 2 pitchers, and the Rays used just 3. We're getting closer to real baseball!

Francisco Liriano and the Blustery Day

Now, before you look at today's box score and jump to conclusions about how Francisco Liriano had a rough game, and can't handle pitching more than a couple of innings or one trip through the lineup, do me a favor. Scroll all the way down to the bottom. Past the pitchers. Past the umpires. To the part where it says: "Wind: 19 mph, Out to RF"

The wind played havoc with popups all day. In the 8th inning, Wilson Ramos one-armed a ball that drifted to the base of the wall in right center for a 2B. So when a dude who's 6'5" and 240 lbs. lifts a high fly ball to the opposite field, it shouldn't trouble anybody too much that it managed to carry a little ways over the RF fence. (Certainly not in the same that it should trouble the Marlins that Chris Volstad gave up a HR to Jason Kubel that swiftly reached halfway up one of the light towers in right center.) Especially when only 6 of the 13 hitters Liriano faced managed to put the ball in play, and he didn't walk anyone. If anything, the mistake he made was in allowing an 0-2 single to the hack-tastic Emilio Bonifacio. I'm not sure where that pitch was located, but it was undoubtedly too close to the strike zone.

Even with the wind-aided blemish on his record, Liriano is still the clear front-runner in the competition for the 5th slot in the Twins rotation:

Liriano: 7 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12/1 K/BB
Perkins: 3.2 IP, 12.27 ERA, 3.27 WHIP, 0/4 K/BB
Duensing: 4 IP, 11.25 ERA, 2.50 WHIP, 5/2 K/BB

And, depending on how charitable you're feeling, you can throw in:

Manship: 3 IP, 18.00 ERA, 3.33 WHIP, 1/2 K/BB
Swarzak: 2.2 IP, 16.87 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, 4/2 K/BB
Maroth: 4 IP, 6.75 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, 0/2 K/BB

I suppose it's only fair to give everybody one more appearance, but Liriano would have to pitch remarkably poorly to even open the door a tiny bit for any of these guys.

Along those lines, Ramos looks to be running away with the temporary backup to Joe Mauer role:

Ramos: 15 PA, .400/.400/.667 with 4 2B
Butera: 13 PA, .182/.308/.182

We all knew Ramos had lots of upside with the stick and that Butera wasn't much of a hitter, and so far that's what we've seen. Ramos made an error today, but it was on one of the afore-mentioned adventuresome popups, so I wouldn't worry about it too much. He seemed to have a good report with Carl Pavano the other day against the Phillies.

At this point, I think the only reason not to bring up Ramos for the first couple weeks of the season is to postpone the start of his service clock. But for the amount of time that will accrue (15-20 days, right?), I'm not sure that should be much of a concern. Especially when the division projects to be as close as it does, I'd rather have a competent hitter in the lineup for those 3-4 April games when Mauer needs to sit down. Besides, once Mauer signs his extension, Ramos most likely becomes a trade piece, so his service clock will be someone else's problem.

I'm sure they'll drag them out for awhile, but these seem like easy choices to me.

The First Setbacks

After 2 games of pretty stellar pitching, things were bound to break down for the Twins. On the plus side:

Francisco Liriano pitched 2 scoreless innings, allowing 1 single, 1 BB and a HBP with 3 K. All of the baserunners came in the first inning - chalk that up to being too keyed up for his spring debut. 2 of the 3 non-K outs were grounders. I'll take it, and look forward to seeing what he can do in his next start when he should be more relaxed out of the gate.

Nice debut for Jose Mijares today, a 1-2-3 inning with a K. Quite a contrast from last spring.

Through 3 games, the pitchers I expect to make the opening day roster have thrown 13.1 shutout IP, allowing 4 H and 5 BB with 10 K.

Now the minuses:

Joe Nathan had to leave after facing 3 batters with tightness in his pitching elbow. This is supposedly a normal side-effect of the bone chip removal surgery he had during the offseason. Having just had some soreness in my surgically repaired knee at my softball game on Thursday, I can accept this explanation. I felt better yesterday and perfect today, so we'll hope Nathan's pain also dissipates quickly. Never a good thing to hear that one of your All-Star pitchers is having elbow pain, though.

Glen Perkins, whose job this spring is essentially to raise his trade value, didn't do much on that front. He bailed Nathan out of a 2 on, 1 out jam in the 3rd, but then got touched for 2 ER on 3 H and 2 BB in the 4th. His comments after the game suggested that his shoulder still isn't quite 100%. That isn't of any use to anybody.

Jeff Manship had a 1-2-3 6th, but then got lit up in the 7th for 4 ER on 6 H, including a 3-run HR. It occurred to me that one indicator of the Twins' success in 2010 will be how few innings they need from Manship. If he's in Rochester all season, it means the big league rotation is both healthy and productive. Relying on Manship for any length of time would be a pretty big step down from the intended starters.

The Breaks: Liriano

Perhaps no other Twins player has caused the fans' expectations to yo-yo around more than Francisco Liriano. During his dominant rookie season in 2006, he looked like he would be the best starter in the league for years to come. Then his TJS cost him all of 2007, a few mph of velocity and a lot of control, all of which showed up in a disastrous trio of starts in April of 2008. Our expectations suitably lowered, he appeared to find himself again, dominating AAA for 3 months before returning to the Twins for a strong final 2 months of that season. Now expecting a continuation of that success, we were disappointed to see Liriano struggle with his command throughout 2009, posting career worsts in WHIP, HR/9 and BB/9. That performance, along with Brian Duensing's surprising effectiveness down the stretch, left many speculating that Liriano would most likely land in the bullpen in 2010.

Then came his staggeringly dominant stint in the Dominican Winter League. By his 3rd GS in mid-December, things were already starting to look good, as his biggest problems from the regular season, a 4.3 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9, utterly evaporated. With each start, he reinforced that his command had returned, culminating in a 5 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 10 K performance in the deciding game of the DWL championship series. Anyone with ESPN360 could watch the telecast and see for themselves the devastating bite of his slider, the radar gun lighting up to 96 mph on his fastball. Not only does his command appear to be back, his stuff looks like it's back, too.

Now, the crucial question: How much of this spectacular DWL line:

48.2 IP, 32 H, 4 ER, 0 HR, 7 BB, 64 K, 0.74 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9, 11.8 K/9, 1.55 G/F

will Liriano be able to bring to his MLB opponents in 2010? I think it's probably safe to say that the average DWL hitter is about a replacement level MLB hitter - for every Nelson Cruz down there, there's a has-been and a never-will-be. So any competent MLB pitcher should be able to carve up that league. That in itself should be a comfort to Twins fans (hey, Liriano is a competent pitcher!) after last year. But Liriano didn't just carve them up, he annihilated them. Never mind the WHIP for a second - he allowed 0 HR and only a couple of XBH in nearly 50 IP. A K/BB ratio of better than 9/1! That tells me that Liriano is a lot more than merely competent.

Certainly big league lineups will be able to do more damage against him. More guys will lay off sliders in the dirt, raising his BB rate and dropping his K rate. A few guys will square him up and take him yard, raising his WHIP and HR rate. But his numbers in those metrics - factors that are considered to be largely within the pitcher's control - were higher in his outstanding rookie season, too:

2.4 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 1.00 WHIP

So he can have a lot more trouble than he had in the DWL and still have an amazing season. But I'm not ready to predict that he'll be quite that good, so how about this: Let's say Liriano is able to return to something like allowing <3.0 BB/9, <1.0 HR/9, >8.0 K/9 and a WHIP < 1.25. That's basically a 25% step down from his otherworldly 2006. Or, put another way, it's predicting that Liriano in 2010 will be at least 80% as good as he was in 2006. And that's still a pretty good place to be. Among pitchers with 100+ IP in 2009, there are 9 guys who met those criteria:

Tim Lincecum
Justin Verlander
Jon Lester
Javier Vazquez
Zach Greinke
Wandy Rodriguez
Josh Johnson
Adam Wainwright
Felix Hernandez

All of those guys are either #1 or #2 starters. 2 of them won the Cy Young award, and 4 others received votes. Anybody still think Duensing should be the frontrunner for the final slot in the rotation?

PECOTA currently predicts Liriano will pitch 156 IP with 3.4 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 7.4 K/9 and a WHIP of 1.39, resulting in 2.1 WARP. My prediction for Liriano probably most closely matches Lester's 2009, since he is also a LHP for an AL contender entering his age-26 season. Lester likely had it tougher than Liriano will, playing in the AL East in a home park that greatly favors RH hitters. His numbers, brought to the AL Central and Target Field (we don't know how it will play, but it doesn't look like it'll be too easy on righties), could result in even fewer runs and more wins. In any event, Lester earned 6.1 WARP last year (adjusted for park and season).

If Liriano meets my expectations and proves himself to be even 4/5 the pitcher he was as a rookie, the Twins are suddenly a 90-91 win club, with a front-end starter who matches up with just about anyone else's. Whatever other breaks the Twins get during this season, Liriano's potential return to dominance could be the most important.

Welcome Aboard

Francisco Liriano got one more start in the deciding game of the Dominican Winter League championship series, and it was perhaps his best game:

5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 10 K

That brings his final combined DWL line to:

48.2 IP, 32 H, 4 ER, 0 HR, 7 BB, 64 K, 0.74 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9, 11.8 K/9, 1.55 G/F

The championship game was broadcast on ESPN 360, so folks in the states got to see for themselves what he looked like. And, all of a sudden, all sorts of folks are jumping on the bandwagon. Rightfully so. Two months ago, nobody was sure what to expect from Liriano in 2010. Now, for me, if he isn't the best starter on the Twins' staff, I'm going to be disappointed. Hopefully, the DWL experience has given him the confidence to be the Ace he projected to be prior to his injury in 2006.

Back to Baseball

So freakin' busy doing sound design for a play. All the theatre people involved say it's one of the most tech-heavy shows they've ever seen. I believe it. Music, surgery, planes, boxing, WWII, flashbacks - all that and more has to sound right. It's fun, but it's kept me too busy even to watch the Vikings add another chapter to their storied history of falling just short. Two points for today:

1. Francisco Liriano had another winter league start in the Dominican:

5 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 7 K

Though he took the loss and saw his streak of not allowing an earned run snapped at 40 innings, there is nothing in this performance that discourages me in the least. Especially when you consider that 5 of the 7 H he allowed and 7 of the 8 non-K outs came on grounders. It actually improves his already phenomenal K, BB and G/F rates, and he still hasn't allowed a HR. His DWL totals are now:

43.2 IP, 31 H, 4 ER, 0 HR, 7 BB, 54 K, 0.82 ERA, 0.87 WHIP

That guy is going to be one of the better starters in the AL this year.

2. The Twins signed Jim Thome to bolster their bench. Apparently, this move is intended to place Thome in the role Brian Buscher had last year. Thome should be able to match Buscher's splendid OBP while providing significantly more power. Clearly an upgrade. While many would love to see Thome DH vs. righties, sending Jason Kubel into the field and Delmon Young onto the bench, that doesn't appear to be part of the plan - at least not at first. The Twins' just don't seem to think like that. I'll bet a significant portion of the logic that entered into this decision was the same as that which brought Craig Monroe to the team two years ago: The guy always kills us when we play against him, so let's get him to play for us!

Gardy is pretty good at riding the hot hand and changing roles once June looms, so if Young isn't producing by then, I'd expect the platoon scenario to come into being. And if anything should happen to Justin Morneau, Kubel or Michael Cuddyer, the Twins won't miss a beat in the middle of the lineup - at least not against RHP. It's a good signing that improves the team, regardless of Thome's eventual role.

Liriano Update

Last night, Francisco Liriano pitched the first game of the best of nine Dominican Winter League Championship Series. It was perhaps his final start there before turning his attention to spring training, and was his worst performance in about a month:

5 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

Pathetic, huh? Most pitchers would take that outing every time, but it pales in comparison to this body of work:

12/05: 3.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
12/10: 3.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 5 K
12/16: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Playoffs
12/26: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
01/02: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 7 K
01/07: 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 8 K
01/13: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 6 K

Add it all up, and you get this:

38.2 IP, 24 H, 2 ER, 0 HR, 7 BB, 47 K, 0.47 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9, 10.9 K/9, 1.33 G/F

Now, compare those rate stats with what he did against similar competition at the upper levels in 2005:

AA: 3.64 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 0.7 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 10.8 K/9,
AAA: 1.78 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 0.4 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 11.1 K/9

And his awesome, abbreviated 2006:

2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 0.7 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 2.37 G/F

And his not so good 2009:

5.80 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 1.4 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 0.98 G/F

These are the elements of the game that are within the pitcher's control: HR, BB, K and whether they allow grounders or flies. Liriano, when he's good, keeps the ball in the yard, keeps the free passes to a minimum, strikes out more than a batter per IP and gets more grounders than flies. For whatever reason, he was out of whack last year and failed to live up to his potential on all those counts. He also allowed a higher than typical BABIP and stranded fewer runners than one would expect. Based on my observations of the games he pitched last season, I would summarize his performance like this: he struggled to command his fastball, particularly with men on base. That led him into too many hitter's counts, and he got drilled. The numbers back that up.

I don't have any observations to bring to Liriano's DWL performance, but the numbers tell the story: He was in total command of his fastball, consistently putting himself in pitcher's counts, and the hitters were left to flail meekly at his arsenal of secondary pitches. The DWL isn't a sluggers league, but Liriano allowed only 2 2B in those 7 GS - no 3B, no HR. The 2 ER he allowed during the campaign came in his first inning. Were they the result of jitters? Rust? Whatever the cause, he immediately made the adjustment, finishing on a string of 37.2 consecutive IP without allowing an ER.

What does this mean for 2010? Certainly, the average MLB hitter is much better than the average DWL hitter, so we can expect Liriano's numbers to all come down from these other-worldly heights. The BABIP will probably go up to around his career average of .310 (it was .258 in the DWL). He'll probably allow more BB, some HR, and strike out fewer. But I'm satisfied that he's corrected his troubles from last season, so I'll make this prediction: Liriano will be a better starting pitcher next season than Scott Baker. And I expect Baker to pitch all season the way he did from June on last year. Which was pretty darn well.

So go get one more IF, Mr. Smith, and sign Joe Mauer to his extension, then kick back and enjoy the season. The rotation is in good shape.

Buena Noticia

When Carl Pavano accepted the Twins' arbitration offer in December, he locked up a spot in the 2010 rotation and about $7 million of the money the team might have used to find a true #1 starter. We must assume that they will have to construct their rotation from players currently under team control. That will probably be Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Pavano and Nick Blackburn in the first 4 slots. I would rate them as a #2, 2 (nearly identical) #3s, and a #4. Not bad, but not something that matches up with Zach Greinke, Jake Peavy or Justin Verlander.

The last rotation spot figures to go to either Francisco Liriano, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins or Anthony Swarzak. Liriano was unhittable prior to his 2006 TJS, then struggled with his control early in his return in 2008 before locking in and being very good for most of the summer. But he had a lousy 2009, posting the worst numbers of his career in terms of control (4.3 BB/9) and keeping the ball in the yard (1.4 HR/9). He failed to make the necessary adjustments all season, putting up ERAs over 5.00 in every month but June, and was shut down for several weeks in mid August. He was usually very effective in his first inning of work, however, holding opposing hitters to a .625 OPS over the first 15 pitches of an outing. This has many people calling for him to be moved to the bullpen, where he could certainly be an asset.

But which of the other rotation candidates can match his upside? Even with his decreased post-surgery velocity, Liriano put up a 2.74 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 11 GS in late 2008. That's a better performance than Baker gave over the same period - and he was largely carrying the team down the stretch. Duensing almost matched that performance in his 9 GS for the Twins last year - he only came up short on the K/9 (5.6). But the numbers from those 9 starts so far exceed what he was able to do in 56 GS at AAA, I don't think we can expect that level of success to continue. He's reached his ceiling, and it's a 5th starter. Perkins isn't any better, thanks to his inconsistency, and he may not be durable enough to make 33 starts in a year, and he pissed off the coaching staff by concealing his injuries - he looks like the last resort. Swarzak projected as a #3 starter a couple of years ago, but his K numbers have tailed off significantly at the upper levels. He has a big adjustment to make before he can be successful at the Major League level - and even then he's mid-rotation at best.

The only guy with a shot at making the rotation this April who has the talent to be an ace is Liriano. Baker has been described as a weak #1 or a strong #2. If Liriano can pull it together, and pitch a little better than Baker, then the Twins will at least have an average #1, strong #2, solid #3 (whether it's Slowey or Pavano), strong #4, and strong #5. They'll have a rotation that will match up with the best in the division. Liriano regaining his 2008 form is, for me, one of the biggest keys to the 2010 season.

So my excitement has been steadily growing as I've followed his exploits in the Dominican Winter League over the past month:

12/05: 3.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
12/10: 3.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 5 K
12/16: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Playoffs
12/26: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
01/02: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 7 K
UPDATE
01/07: 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 8 K
01/13: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 6 K
Total: 33.2 IP, 19 H, 2 ER, 0 HR, 5 BB, 41 K, 0.53 ERA, 0.71 WHIP

No HR allowed, and over 30 IP without allowing an ER. That K/BB ratio is the best we've seen from him since 2006. Has something clicked? Or is he just facing shoddy winter ball competition?

The DWL is a pitcher's league: for the 50 game regular season, the average hitter batted .265/.333/.364, and there were just 0.45 HR per game. The very low power numbers (0.99 IsoP) suggest that the typical hitter is a slappy contact hitter who occasionally finds a gap, kinda like Alexi Casilla, who is playing for one of Liriano's rivals. These rosters tend to be filled with journeymen, prospects and bench players, guys trying to prove that they can be better than they showed last season. I don't know exactly what the level of play equates to, but I'm guessing it's somewhere between AA and AAA. Nothing a quality MLB pitcher should have trouble with.

Still, the average pitcher had a 3.72 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 0.5 HR/9, 3.2 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9, so you can see just how drastically better Liriano is pitching than everyone else. And those numbers are in line with what he was doing when he was pitching at the upper levels in 2005, when everyone was beginning to get excited about him as a prospect. That was his age 21 season; he'll be 26 in 2010. Too old to expect much more growth, but just the right age to expect peak performance.

I would love to know what the scouts are seeing from him down there. Has he made an adjustment in his mechanics? Has he recovered some of his pre-surgery velocity? If he has, and he can sustain those improvements into the 2010 season, the Twins' rotation troubles from 2009 could be over.

Drop Off

Red Sox 6, Twins 5

I was disappointed that the Twins' offense didn't have a better showing against Brad Penny. Part of that was because, unlike the other time they faced him in April, his fastball had some movement and he was throwing his breaking stuff for strikes. The other part had to do with the Twins' lineup. With Denard Span still recovering from the flu, Joe Crede with a swollen hand after being HBP yesterday and Joe Mauer just getting a day off, the lineup began with Carlos Gomez and Matt Tolbert in front of Justin Morneau. Span's OBP is .100 points higher than Gomez' and Mauer's OBP is literally double Tolbert's. Not surprisingly, the table wasn't set. Span's absence also forced Delmon Young into the lineup - he went 0-4 with 3 K for the second straight game. I guess I'll be charitable and write that off to him losing his timing after being out for a week and a half. Anyway, this was not the lineup that has been putting up so many runs this month.

And yet, they still managed to knock Penny out after 5.1 IP and score 5 R in the game. The last 2 came on Mauer's 2-out, PH HR off of Jonathan Papelbon. In just 23 games and 81 AB, Mauer already has 11 HR, 25 R, and 31 RBI while hitting .444/.530/.914. I don't think he needs to get another hit this week in order to win the AL Player of the Month award. Mike Redmond, in 2/3 the AB, has 0 HR, 2 R and 3 RBI while hitting .259/.322/.315. Obviously, Redmond wasn't going to be anywhere near as good as Mauer this year, but that's as drastic a drop off in production as we'll see from any starter to his backup.

Francisco Liriano got hit around a bit, but he pitched better than his line indicates. The big positive I'll take away from that outing was the 7 K and 0 BB in 4 IP. Remember, it was when he started limiting his walks last year at AAA when things started to take off for him. As for the 11 H, almost half of them were grounders that found their way through. In his 4 IP, Liriano didn't have a single ground ball turned into an out - that's unusually bad luck. And we can point the finger again to the lineup, where Brian Buscher was manning the hot corner instead of Crede. In the 3 run 3rd inning, there were 3 sharply hit balls that got by Buscher - one that went right through him, one just out of reach to his right, one just to his left. It's not difficult to imagine Crede at least knocking down all of those balls, 2 of which went for 2B and the other an RBI single. Maybe Liriano could have hung around a little longer with the Twins' best defense on the field.

All of this brings into stark relief something that might be easy to overlook when the Twins are scoring 5.3 R/G: there are actually only 6 productive hitters in the Twins' lineup (Span, Mauer, Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Crede). None of the other 7 position players has an OPS over .650. Nick Punto and Carlos Gomez at least contribute with above-average fielding, but it's a pretty weak team on the whole. That just goes to show what an incredible level of production we're seeing from the top 6. If they cool off at some point - and they almost certainly will - somebody else had better step up or it's going to be a long summer.

Minor League Notes

Danny Valencia drew 3 BB yesterday to raise his season line to .339/.432/.597 with a 26/20 K/BB ratio in 124 AB. He's hit .305/.367/.521 in 433 PA at AA, and has clearly improved from '08 to '09. Send him to Rochester already.

Beginnings of Big Innings

Twins 7, Tigers 2
Tigers 9, Twins 0
Each team won a game in this short series, thanks mainly to one unruly, bat-around inning.

The Twins took game 1 on the strength of a 5-run 7th, turning a pitcher's duel into a solid Twins lead in the span of 4 hitters. Justin Morneau led off with a grounder through the right side. The key pitch of the game came to the next batter, Jason Kubel. With the count 2-2, Tigers starter Edwin Jackson delivered a fastball that narrowly missed the outside corner for ball 3. Another umpire might have called Kubel out there, and I wouldn't have complained if he had. The next three pitches went: ball 4, RBI 2B, 2-run 3B, and Mr. Jackson was headed for the shower, his QS start turned into 5 ER and a loss - exactly what had happened to Scott Baker the day before.

Brandon Lyon came in and threw 2 pitches: the first hit Delmon Young, the second was bunted by Nick Punto in an attempted safety squeeze. I don't think much of Miguel Cabrera as a defender, but he made a good play on the bunt, charging toward the mound and throwing a strike to the plate to get Cuddyer by a step. If Cabrera doesn't come up with that ball, I think Punto probably has an infield hit.

A LHP came in, and Denard Span picked up his 2nd IF hit of the game thanks to a generous scoring ruling on a ball that Adam Everett probably should have fielded. (I was delighted to see Span swing at the 2-strike pitch that resulted in his first IF hit leading off the game - that's the pitch that he has so often taken for strike 3. Even though it sawed him off, I'm glad to see him recognize that it's a pitch he needs to offer at.) Alexi Casilla finally had something drop in, and Punto's astute read on the flight of the ball/positioning of LF Carlos Guillen enabled him to score from 2nd just a few feet behind Young coming in from 3rd. Joe Mauer and Morneau were retired, but the game was all but out of reach, with Francisco Liriano dealing into the 8th inning.

Liriano may still be a bit short of his old velocity, but his stuff looks terrific to me. Everything he threw was breaking sharply downward. He struck out 9 in 7.1 IP and allowed only 4 H, though 1 of those was a HR. I hope everyone can recognize the difference between the pitch that resulted in the HR hit by Cabrera and those that Scott Baker has given up this year. Liriano threw him a pitch down and in that Cabrera simply golfed out of the park - nothing a pitcher can do about that.

For the Tigers tonight, the 2nd-inning damage was all done after 2 were out. Nick Blackburn, who had issued a 4-pitch walk to the hacktastic Placido Polanco in the 1st, managed to issue another to catcher Gerald Laird, who was 1 for his last 21 coming into the game. Obviously a night of poor command for Blackburn - the 0-2 pitch to Clete Thomas following the Polanco BB was up and over the plate, right on the heels of a pitch down and away that had resulted in a swing and a miss. He continued to miss his spots, though the Tigers had the benefit of both exquisite placement of their hits and ugly defense from the Twins.

After Laird's BB, Ramon Santiago drove him in with an RBI double into the RF corner on a liner that was just out of Morneau's reach. Casilla looked unprepared to throw home when he received Michael Cuddyer's throw from the wall. Then Josh Anderson blooped a ball into LF just out of Young's reach for an RBI single; the ball bounced past Young for an error allowing Anderson to go to 2nd. Polanco hit a grounder up the middle that Casilla could only knock down for what I thought was an exceedingly tough error, particularly when compared to the error that Everett avoided the previous night. (The error on Joe Crede was pretty tough, too.) Then Thomas hit a ball just close enough in front of Cuddyer to induce a dive; it got past him to the wall for a 2-run 3B.

With Cabrera coming up and 2 bases open, I would have expected the Twins to pitch around him, if not put him on. After all, he's hitting about .400, and the next batter, Curtis Granderson, was down around .260. Your chances are better with Granderson, even if he is a lefty. But they pitched to Cabrera, and he promptly ripped an RBI single to left. Granderson was retired for the final out of the inning.

It felt like the Twins were sleep-walking through this game. Except for Kubel - maybe it helped that he didn't have to play in the field. R.A. Dickey finally had a scoreless outing, Jesse Crain made a solid return to the mound, and Craig Breslow only walked 1 guy. Pretty good night for the bullpen, I guess.

On to Baltimore...

Notes on the Rays Series

Rays 7, Twins 1
Twins 4, Rays 3
Twins 8, Rays 3
Though it wasn't quite a QS, this was a huge step forward for Scott Baker. His command was much better, as he struck out 7 in 6 IP and, most importantly, kept the ball in the yard. He also had a string of 10 straight batters retired from the end of the 1st through the 4th. The XBH he allowed with 2 out in the first weren't great pitches, but the Evan Longoria 2B was very nearly foul and Carlos Pena's 3B was nearly caught by Cuddyer at the wall. The 2 runs allowed in the 5th, despite a WP and a PB, really just came down to: Alexi Casilla isn't quite tall enough and 2 bloopers around a BB. Baker has moved out of Baker 2006 territory and into the realm of Francisco Liriano this April, i.e. pitching OK overall, but not doing a very good job of scattering/stranding baserunners.

Speaking of Liriano, he was terrific until the 6th inning. His biggest trouble the last couple of starts has been retiring the leadoff man. He was able to work around it until the 6th, but putting the speedy guys on in front of the boppers is not a recipe for success. It's too bad he couldn't quite get through the 7th (really, Casilla should be 2 inches taller), but I love seeing him out there after the 6th with the Twins in the game.

The key to the Rays rally in the 6th was BJ Upton stealing 2nd despite being picked off. We all know that Justin Morneau has had a tendency to wear down over the course of the season, so these early days off from the field are important. But I miss him when he's not out there defensively. Cuddyer made some mistakes at 1st on Morneau's first day off in Chicago. Brian Buscher didn't exactly make a mistake in this game, it's just that he's a very deliberate player. You can see it in his ABs - it helps him avoid expanding the strike zone, but it also makes him just a little bit late on fastballs he should be attacking. On the pickoff play with Upton, he was just a smidge too slow getting the ball out of his glove. Make that play, and Longoria is batting with 2 out and the bases empty.

I have to compliment Buscher on the way he took that RBI HBP in the 6th. He barely flinched. That's the sign of someone who understood the situation and was mentally prepared to get hit.

Great work by Jose Mijares striking out the middle of the Rays' order after allowing a leadoff walk to Carl Crawford. I suspect he's seen the last of Rochester.

Joe Nathan is going to have to concentrate on throwing his first fastball down - that's twice now he's been taken deep on the first pitch of his outing.

Nick Blackburn was at his best on Wednesday night. Not just because he got 11 ground ball outs to 7 fly balls. Not just because he mixed his pitches effectively. He did a fine job of damage control in the 2 innings where the Rays were able to string some hits together, getting Evan Longoria twice with RISP. The only walk he allowed came with 2 RISP to a LH hitter with 2 out in the 7th. Because he pitches to contact, some grounders will sneak through, and some fly balls will drop in, but he was able to stay away from the fat part of the bat enough to limit the Rays to only 1 XBH.

As I predicted, Gardy has been sticking with Blackburn longer this year. He certainly had justification to make a pitching change as the 7th inning jam unfolded. But he stuck with his starter, and Blackburn held the Rays to just 1 run in the inning. That confidence in the starters is going to pay dividends down the road.

When the offense is scuffling to score runs, isn't it wonderful when the other team spots you a 4-run lead in the 1st inning? That rally went ground ball single, IF single chopped over 3B, BB, uncaught popup for a run, WP for a run, IF hit for a run, WP for a run. Almost as many runs as the Twins had mustered in the first 2 games of the series, all thanks to wildness from the pitcher and inefficient defense.

If Justin Morneau's HR total winds up a little bit lower than you were hoping at the end of the season, remember his 4th inning RBI double. That was within about a foot of being a HR, high off the baggie in right-center field. That's a HR in most other parks - certainly at the new Yankee Stadium.

April Showers

Red Sox 10, Twins 1
This was vintage Scott Baker. 2006 vintage. Not a good year.

I'll cut him a break on the first inning hits - they weren't so much well hit as well placed. The rest were richly deserved, as Baker consistently missed badly with his fastball, walking the backup catcher in front of a bomb from SS Nick Green, then hanging pitch after pitch in the 3rd, resulting in only 2 runs thanks to Michael Cuddyer's diving catch of Jason Bay's liner before Mike Lowell's HR. Baker looks totally uncomfortable on the mound - he walked off the field dejectedly after every inning. But I guess this was a little better than his first start - he allowed 1 fewer HR and got 2 more outs. Baby steps.

The Twins have never done much against Tim Wakefield, and he was tough again today, inducing a ton of popups. The offense was able to get a few guys into scoring position, but they couldn't string any hits together.

I was struck by how the quirky dimensions of Fenway Park played well for the Sox today. Had this game been played at the Metrodome, Denard Span's 7th-inning double would have been a HR, Kevin Youkilis' first-inning HR would have been a double (if not a foul ball), and David Ortiz' 7th-inning double would have been an out.

We got another look at waiver-wire pickup Juan Morillo in a mop-up situation, and the results were ugly. After the afore-mentioned double to Ortiz, he walked 3 straight batters, forcing in a run, and left without retiring a batter. His fastball was consistently in the high 90s, for all the good it did him. R.A. Dickey came on and surrendered an RBI single, a SF, and a bloop ground-rule double. Mercifully, the umps called for the tarp and the game ended before the inning could get any worse.

Red Sox 7, Twins 3
Of the two games, this was the matchup I liked. Brad Penny came into the game with an ERA of 11.00, and Francisco Liriano was coming off of a QS vs. the Blue Jays.

It was obvious that Liriano had electric stuff. He struck out 4 of the first 6 hitters, allowing only a BB to JD Drew. His first pitch to Jason Varitek was a slider that hit him in the back foot. After Liriano had made a string of All-Star players look silly, Jeff Bailey, just recalled from AAA, was able to time an outside fastball and lift it just over the monster in LF for a 3-run HR. Are you kidding me? The other 3 H Liriano allowed were all doubles. The one hit by Dustin Pedroia that set up the 3rd inning rally was a ridiculous piece of hitting as he went down and got a shin high pitch off the inside part of the plate and somehow kept it fair down the LF line.

Liriano was his own worst enemy in this game. As great as his stuff was, he couldn't control it, resulting in 4 BB and a HBP. 4 of those 5 hitters wound up scoring. Liriano will be very tough to score against once he tightens up his control.

It should be noted that the bullpen did a terrific job tonight. Matt Guerrier, Luis Ayala and the newly recalled Jose Mijares combined to allow 1 H in 4 scoreless innings with 3 K. Mijares threw nothing but strikes.

On the offensive side of things, the box score doesn't come close to telling the story. Penny's stuff was awful - he couldn't get his curveball over and there was no movement on his fastball. From the first batter, the Twins smacked line drives all over the field. Had this game been played in a different park, or in different weather conditions, they might have hit 5 HR: Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Cuddyer and Delmon Young (twice) hit drives to the warning track or beyond in deepest CF. In the top of the 4th, Morneau led off with a laser HR into the seats beyond the bullpen. Two pitches later, Kubel hit a nearly identical drive just a few feet to the left that missed the stands for a ground-rule double. After Brian Buscher reached on an error, Delmon Young hit the deepest ball of all, which CF Jacoby Ellsbury was able to haul in with a leaping catch at the wall about 420 feet from home plate. In addition to the 6 H they collected, the Twins hit 7 other balls off Penny well enough to get hits. There were 4 IF liners in the game, 2 of which were in Pedroia's glove so quickly that the men on 1st were helpless to avoid being doubled off. Not our night.

Mauer's Rehab or The Rake's Progress
Joe Mauer caught 6 innings of an extended spring training game today, going 3-4 with a double and a SF and throwing out an attempted base stealer. The other day I suggested that the Twins should think about accelerating their timetable if Mauer went 8-16 with 4 BB and had shown he could catch at least 6 innings by the end of play on Thursday. He's 6-11 with 3 BB so far. Think he can go 2-5 tomorrow? Me too. Doesn't look like he needs another week to get his timing down.

Let's think this through. Mauer will likely DH on Thursday, setting himself up for 7 innings of catching Friday, DH duty Saturday, 8 innings Sunday, DH Monday, 9 innings Tuesday and as many innings as he can handle Wednesday before next Thursday's off day. Why can't he follow that schedule with the Twins? This weekend's series is in Cleveland, which means that Mauer could meet his 7-inning catching quota and still hit in the top of the 8th before being replaced by a lesser player. On Sunday, that gets him every inning but the 9th, and his usage would be normal for the Tampa series at the Metrodome.

What if he aggravates the injury? Well, what if he aggravates it in Fort Myers? Is there something that could happen to him in Cleveland that couldn't happen to him in Florida? Take the gamble. If he gets hurt again, say he would've been hurt anyway and put him back on the DL. If he doesn't get hurt, the Twins get to play 5 or 6 extra games with Mauer in the lineup. Through tonight's game, Mike Redmond and Jose Morales are hitting .231/.298/.288 and still haven't thrown out a base stealer. Mauer could almost top that OBP without taking the bat off his shoulder. This is a tight division race - every game counts. Don't waste a week of Mauer's production on the Florida State League.

Minor League Notes
Another good night for Rob Delaney and Anthony Slama, who combined to strike out 5 in the final 3.1 innings of New Britain's win tonight. Delaney now has 10.2 IP under his belt and has allowed only 9 H, 0 BB and 15 K. Slama has thrown 6.2 IP, allowing 4 H and 2 BB with 12 K. If they keep this up, they need to be in Rochester by June.

White Wash

White Sox 8, Twins 0
White Sox 6, Twins 1
First the good news. Umm...

Denard Span looks to be back to his 2008 form. He drew 3 BB on Saturday, and looked comfy at the plate vs. LHP Mark Buehrle on Sunday, hitting a couple of balls very hard despite collecting no hits.

Nick Punto has a nice little OBP going this week. I like his glove in the #9 spot just fine, especially when he's drawing walks here and there.

Francisco Liriano and Nick Blackburn were both really good for 4 IP. Blackburn did a better job of pitching after his defense had committed an error than he often did in that situation last year. Gardy let him start the 7th inning even though he'd thrown around 90 pitches coming into the inning. That's a sign that Blackburn will get a chance to pitch deeper into games than he did last year.

Matt Guerrier came into an inning with men on base and didn't allow any of them to score. He retired all four batters he faced, striking out 2.

Anything else? No? Okay, on to the bad news:

Liriano may have been squeezed a bit, but that's no excuse for walking guys in. Everything that happened to him in that 5th inning could be traced back to falling behind the hitters.

I'm not feeling a whole lot of confidence in Philip Humber after the inning he had on Saturday night. Is he on his way to pitching like Brian Bass?

The defense was lousy on Sunday. Punto dropped a foul pop, the 3rd dropped fly ball of the series for the Twins. Blackburn only had to throw 2 extra pitches to get that batter. Then Cuddyer, playing first so that Morneau could DH, made 2 errors on one play, allowing the tying run to score in the 5th. Punto and Cuddyer failed to retire Carlos Quentin on his slowly hit grounder leading off the 6th - a tough play, but one they're capable of making. And Brendan Harris, getting a start at 2B, double-clutched on a would-be DP relay, giving the runner just enough time to make it to first base. Extra outs, extra bases, extra work for our pitchers.

Blackburn and Mike Redmond should have known they weren't going to strike out Jim Thome on the same pitch 2 AB in a row.

Craig Breslow has made 1 appearance as Craig Breslow, in which he began an inning and retired 3 of 4 batters with a strikeout, and 2 appearances as Dennys Reyes, in which he came in with runners on and retired 1 of 3 batters with a BB and HBP. I like him better when he's being himself.

Despite their apparent strides in spring training, Carlos Gomez is still a strikeout machine (9 in 22 AB!) and Delmon Young is still a DP waiting to happen every time he hits with men on base.

The Twins have scored 24 runs in their 3 wins and 2 runs in their 4 losses. That is what you call feast or famine.

Minor League notes
Jose Mijares picked up the win for Rochester with a perfect inning of relief including 1 K. Yesterday for New Britain, Rob Delaney came on with 1 out in the 6th and men on and got out of the inning with a DP. He pitched a perfect 7th and 8th, striking out 3, then handed the ball to Anthony Slama for a perfect 9th. Wilson Ramos came alive at the plate, going 3 for 5 with his first HR and lining out for his 2 outs.

Opening Night

Mariners 6, Twins 1
Seattle starter Felix Hernandez is a good pitcher. Even worse, he's in the habit of pitching extra well in April. That meant that Francisco Liriano's margin of error for this game was going to be very thin. And he was good, on the whole, allowing only 4 baserunners in 7 IP with 3 K and 0 BB (I'd love to see him get in the habit of avoiding walks). Unfortunately, all four baserunners he allowed scored, thanks to 2 HR and a leadoff double in the 2nd. One of the HR came from Ken Griffey, Jr. That's a nice feel-good story for baseball fans, but seeing Liriano yield a HR to a guy who slugged .350 vs. LHP last season made me feel bad.

We got our first look at the Twins' bullpen, and it was more of the same. Luis Ayala's debut with the club went fine, but Jesse Crain walked the first batter he faced before retiring the next 2 in the 9th. Gardy decided to try out Craig Breslow in his new, Dennys Reyes role vs. Griffey Jr, and the result emulated the worst of Reyes' outings: 4 straight balls, walk the lefty, hand the ball to Gardy. I was perhaps unfairly nervous to find Matt Guerrier coming into the game at that point. Mike Redmond allowed a passed ball to put both runners in scoring position, and Jose Lopez bounced a single through the left side to put the game out of reach.

Offensively, I wasn't expecting a lot, but the game got off to a great start with a walk from Denard Span and a single from Alexi Casilla. After Michael Cuddyer struck out (oh, if only Mauer had been there), Justin Morneau was robbed of a hit when his bouncer up the middle was deflected by Hernandez to Lopez and Morneau was incorrectly called out at first. What a different tone that might have set for the game - even if Jason Kubel's subsequent AB had proceeded exactly the same way, the pitch he struck out on would have been a WP scoring Span with the game's first run. Morneau hit again with the bases loaded in the 5th, following Cuddyer's RBI single, and promptly hit into an inning-ending DP. The Twins wouldn't get another baserunner vs. Hernandez.

My biggest positive from the game was the performance of Denard Span. He drew 2 BB and laid down a sacrifice, and looked great covering ground in LF. A few more games like that and I can forget about his March struggles. And Joe Crede got his first hit, a gift from the official scorer on a ball that should have been handled by Adrian Beltre.

Not the way I wanted to see the season start, but Hernandez is well on his way to being an elite pitcher. Liriano was just out-pitched tonight.

Blue Jays 12, Tigers 5
What's happened to Justin Verlander? How demoralizing to get 5 runs off Halladay and still lose by 7.

Rangers 9, Indians 1
Cliff Lee my butt.