3 Games, 3 Catchers

Twins 9, Indians 3

Another balanced game from the Twins' offense, as every starter reached base at least once. They abused their beloved former backup C, Mike Redmond, for 3 SB. And they got a bunch of 2-out RBI hits, including a HR from Justin Morneau in his first game back from his back issues.

Kevin Slowey was the beneficiary of a big early lead, but he almost failed to hold it. He was pitching pretty well, but seemed to need 4-5 pitches in every PA. He started the 5th inning with a high-ish pitch count in the 60s, then needed well over 30 pitches to get through that inning. His defense exacerbated the problem when Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer let Redmond's drive to right-center pass between them untouched - they called each other off simultaneously, so neither one caught the ball. That turned out to be the first of 5 H in 6 AB for the Indians. Had Redmond's ball been caught and everything else proceeded as it did, Slowey would have been out of the inning with 0 R allowed and 92 pitches, likely allowing him to start the 6th inning.

The Indians defense didn't do them any favors either. The Twins' 3-run rally in the 2nd resulted from an inability to turn a routine DP off the bat of Denard Span with the bases loaded. 1B Matt LaPorta couldn't dig out a low relay throw from 2B Luis Valbuena, allowing 1 R to score and giving the Twins an extra out. After Span stole second, Orlando Hudson delivered a 2-RBI single, though Fausto Carmona had pitched well enough to put his team in the dugout with 0 R allowed.

Twins 4, Indians 5 (11 innings)

All sorts of lineup shuffling for this one. Nick Blackburn needed family leave, so Jeff Manship was brought up to make the start. He was as good as anyone could have hoped, allowing just 2 ER on 5 H and 1 BB with a career-high 6 K in 6 IP. He was at just 86 pitches, but with 2 big lefties coming up in the 7th and the Twins clinging to a 1-run lead, it wasn't unreasonable to go to the bullpen at that point. And Brian Duensing delivered a 10-pitch, 1-2-3 inning. Then it went to Matt Guerrier, who'd thrown an inning on Friday. He got 2 quick outs, then allowed consecutive 2-out H to the Indians' three best hitters, tying the game.

That put the bullpen was on the spot - they needed to be rescued by the offense. But Joe Mauer had bruised his heel late in Friday's game and was unavailable, and a backup, though en route, would not arrive in time for the game. That meant it was Drew Butera behind the plate, for better or for worse, for the duration. He went hitless yet again, and had the crucial PA of extra innings: bases loaded, 1 out, GIDP. Butera's impotence with the stick made me wish that Alexi Casilla could have PH in that situation.

Alex Burnett had already thrown 1.1 IP, but Gardy tried to stretch him through the 11th. He gave up a BB, 2B and IBB to the first 3 hitters, then left a bases loaded mess for Jesse Crain to try to clean up. He almost did it, getting a shallow pop fly and a K before Asdrubal Cabrera, one of Cleveland's best hitters, ripped a game-winning single.

Twins 8, Indians 3

The Twins desperately needed Francisco Liriano to pitch deep into this game, but it got off to a rocky start for him. He threw the ball past 1B while attempting to get Cabrera leading off. Cabrera made it all the way to 3rd, where he scored on a groundout. Liriano then gave up a hit to Shin-Soo Choo, walked Austin Kearns, allowed Choo to steal 3B, then balked him in. After that, he largely settled down, allowing 6 H, 2 BB and 9 K the rest of the way. He was over 100 pitches after 6 IP, but manned up and got through a scoreless 7th, finishing the day with 123 pitches. That's one of the things Aces have to do: save the bullpen.

Wilson Ramos arrived from Rochester to make his Major League debut, and it could hardly have gone better. He went 4-5 with a 2B - more of an offensive impact in one start than Butera has made in 4. Span, Hudson, Morneau and Delmon Young also had multi-hit games, with Young hitting his 3rd HR and drawing his 8th BB. The Twins still weren't great with RISP, but put up 8 R thanks to the sheer mass of baserunners they accumulated, setting a season-high with 20 H and adding 5 more BB.

Mauer is probably going to be out for a few more days, and I expect Ramos to get the bulk of the playing time until he's healthy. Ramos was not hitting well at Rochester and is still rather inexperienced. But he's so much more talented than Butera, at least everyone can feel like there's a chance he'll get a hit when he comes to the plate. That will help soften the temporary loss of the reigning MVP.

Notes:

• Span went 5-9 with 2 BB and a HR over the weekend, raising his OPS from .617 to .700. Nothing to worry about.
• Young went 4-9 with 3 BB and a HR, raising his OPS from .684 to .778. Also nothing to worry about.
• Kyle Gibson threw a 1-hit shutout on Thursday night, and has overcome his debut to rank 4th in the Florida State league in ERA through 5 GS. He's got a .200 BAA, a G/F of just over 5/1, and a K/BB of 4/1 with nearly 9 K/9. How many more starts before he heads for New Britain?
• There are 3 guys at Beloit who could deserve to take Gibson's spot in the rotation. Liam Hendriks, Daniel Osterbrock and Tom Stuifbergen all have ridiculous numbers so far. Since Osterbrock is the oldest and longest tenured at A-, I'd give him the first look. But I wouldn't forget about Shooter Hunt, who has shown in 7 appearances since opening night that he's put his control issues behind him. He has a 20/4 K/BB ratio in his last 13.1 IP, with a 2.03 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. At some point he should get another crack at the rotation, right?

Mauer and Nathan

The Twins got certain answers to 2 of the lingering questions of spring training: Will Joe Nathan need TJS and be lost for the season? Yes. Will Joe Mauer sign a long-term contract extension? Yes.

I don't think the timing of the 2 announcements was a coincidence. We've known for a couple weeks that Nathan would have his desperation catch session with Rick Anderson sometime this weekend. The off day on Monday - the last of the spring - offered the perfect opportunity to hold a press conference and make the Mauer signing the focus of the day. I wouldn't be surprised if Mauer and the Twins have had the contract all but finalized for several days, waiting for the final word on Nathan. Mauer's contract buries what would have been a bummer headline about Nathan, and ensures that the fans and the team keep an upbeat feeling heading into the final week of March.

While the Twins will undoubtedly miss Nathan in what otherwise appears to be the makings of a championship roster, his loss doesn't mean the team is destined for failure. Nathan's career save conversion rate is about 91%; the average closer is around 85%. Without him, the Twins will have an 85% chance of winning any games they're leading by 3 or fewer runs after 8 innings. We're talking about a difference of 2-3 wins if things go as expected. (And it's certainly possible that the substitute closer could have a good/lucky season and match Nathan's efficiency). Though 2-3 wins was significant in the AL Central the last couple of seasons, I think the Twins should have a decent cushion this year - I'll go into that in more depth tomorrow.

The talk of having Francisco Liriano take over as closer hasn't stopped yet, and it really needs to. Pitchers go to the bullpen only after they show that they can't cut it as starters. Despite his troubles last year, Liriano still has the stuff to excel in the rotation. If he struggles over his first 10-12 starts this year, OK, you can try him in the bullpen, a la Boof Bonser in 2008. But the drop off from Liriano's ceiling as a starter to Duensing's or Maroth's ceiling is enormous - far greater than the difference between Nathan and Rauch or Neshek.

June should be a good time to assess how will Nathan's fill-in is doing. By then, everyone should have a good idea of how well Neshek has recovered from his TJS, which Jesse Crain has shown up for 2010, and whether Anthony Slama has the potential to be an Andrew Bailey-type rookie closer. If the internal options don't look good, the Twins can trade for somebody over the summer, when several flailing teams will likely be looking to maximize the value of veteran relievers.

As for Mauer, it's an almost revolutionary moment for baseball. For a mid-market team like the Twins to be able to retain one of the game's biggest stars and offer the 4th richest contract in history shows that it's no longer a foregone conclusion that the best players must eventually trickle down to the Yankees or Red Sox. 8 years, $184M is a ton of money, but it appears to be in keeping with Mauer's present value. I haven't seen the details of the contract yet, but Joe C. says it's going to be a straight up $23M per year. I would have liked to have seen it structured more like this:

2010: $5M signing bonus (making his effective salary $17.5M - they could use some of Nathan's insurance money for this)
2011: $18.5M
2012: $19.5M
2013: $20.5M
2014: $21.5M
2015: $22.5M
2016: $23.5M
2017: $24M
2018: $24M
2019: $25M option or $5M buyout

That comes out to $184M guaranteed, with the signing bonus and buyout helping to defer $10M outside the guaranteed years of the deal. I like this structure because, if you assume that the revenues from Target Field will enable the Twins to continue to make modest increases in their payroll each year, Mauer's contract, though enormous, doesn't have to take up even 20% of the total. That should enable the Twins to continue to assemble a strong supporting cast around him, particularly if the organization continues its good player development habits.

At $23M/year, the rest of the roster can still be good, but there won't be any Orlando Hudsons or Carl Pavanos or Jim Thomes in 2011. This makes it all the more critical for the Twins to use their prospect surpluses to fill those positional gaps with elite, cheap talent. Wilson Ramos is now officially expendable. Trade him for a four or five star SP prospect who's already in the high minors. Now you've got somebody to take over Pavano's rotation spot for the league minimum. Denard Span's extension makes Ben Revere redundant. Trade him for a 2B to take over for Hudson next year. The Twins will still have to manage the rest of their roster the same way they have in recent years. They've been successful, and they can continue to be.

The downside of this deal is the length. As a catcher, Mauer is likely to experience some significant decline once he hits his 30s, and this contract guarantees him a lot of money through his age 35 season. The lesson to other small franchises across baseball should be not only that they can retain their stars, but that they should be proactive about locking them up well in advance of free agency. Had the Twins approached Mauer last spring, while he was trying to work his way back onto the field, I have no doubt that he would have signed a 4-year extension for about $14M/year, maybe with a signing bonus and an option for 2015. 4 years, $62M with a $16M option or $2M buyout, combined with the 2 years, $23M remaining on his existing contract, would have the potential to result in 7 years and $99M, the longest, richest contract ever offered a catcher. A rehabbing, pre-MVP Mauer would have taken that, and the Twins would have saved themselves 4 years and $120M of risk.

The Most Valuable Player

Today, Joe Mauer won the AL MVP award, having led the league in BA, OBP and SLG%. He was the first player to do that since George Brett in 1980. The vote was nearly unanimous.

Up to this point, talks between Mauer and the Twins about a contract extension beyond the 2010 season have been quiet. This is probably because, if the Twins have been bothering to call, Ron Shapiro has most likely been letting it go to voice mail. Why even start negotiating before your client earns the most prestigious individual award in the game? Now they have all the leverage: Mauer has added power to his league-leading hitting, he's earned a 2nd consecutive Gold Glove and Silver Slugger, he'll be in his peak if he hits the Free Agent market at age 28 in 2011, and the large market teams should all be in the market for a catcher at that time. Plus, with a publicly funded new stadium set to open in the spring, the fans won't stand for seeing their native superstar dealt or lost because of payroll concerns. So, sure, Mauer will sign with the Twins, but it will be on his terms, for the years and dollars that make him comfortable.

That Bill Smith and the Twins could have let it get to this point is a staggering failure of planning and risk management, not to mention a disturbing inability to learn from the recent past. It was only 2 years ago, after all, that the Twins were forced to unload the game's best pitcher, Johan Santana, to the lowest bidder - a situation brought about by Santana's unwillingness to settle for a home-town discount when somebody from the East was sure to give him more dollars and years than the Twins could comfortably guarantee. They locked up former MVP Justin Morneau that spring, ensuring that he'd be a Twin throughout his peak years.

Was there any question that they'd want Mauer around for those years as well? With him coming off of 2 batting titles in 3 years, there shouldn't have been. Was there some reason to think that he'd sign for less money at some point in the future? Letting him play another season only made it more likely that he'd pile up great numbers and increase his value. It wasn't as though the Twins were pushing the limits of their payroll going into 2009, what were they saving the money for? They just signed Morneau for 6 years, why not extend Mauer for 4 and essentially match that deal? As of a year ago, there were still a lot of people who valued Morneau more highly (as evidenced by his #2 MVP finish to Mauer's #4). Offering Mauer a deal equivalent to that of his good buddy would have looked pretty equitable.

Had Mauer had a normal offseason, he might have tried to hold out for more. But when he was slow to recover from his back trouble, and spring training started to slip away with no timetable for his return, he would have been in no position to turn down a contract guaranteeing him an 8-figure salary through 2014. 2009 was going to be the 3rd time in 6 seasons that he'd miss considerable playing time to injury, and he plays the most physically demanding position on the field. Had he been offered a 4-year, $56M extension with a $4M signing bonus last February, I can't imagine him passing on it.

That deal, had it been offered, would have been ideal for the Twins. Catchers have been known to see a drop-off in productivity shortly after they turn 30. Signing Mauer through 2014 gets him through his age 31 season - re-evaluate his condition from there and see if he's really going to be able to stick behind the dish. Now, they'll probably have to sign him through at least 2017, when he'll be 34. Chances are much better that he won't be worth the price tag by then. At $14M/year, Mauer is a bargain, allowing significant money to be allocated to other parts of the team and organization. Now, he's probably going to cost $20M/year or more, and for more years. That extra $6M could be the difference between a good player and a replacement player, or a good player and a great player. It could go toward signing top-flight prospects like Max Kepler and Miguel Angel Sano. Now, it's gonna go to Joe Mauer, and that's all.

We won't know until the deal is completed how much Mauer's extension will cost the Twins. But as far as I'm concerned, that amount minus $60M is the price they'll pay for failing to offer the extension a year ago. Maybe this time the lesson will sink in.

Drop Off

Red Sox 6, Twins 5

I was disappointed that the Twins' offense didn't have a better showing against Brad Penny. Part of that was because, unlike the other time they faced him in April, his fastball had some movement and he was throwing his breaking stuff for strikes. The other part had to do with the Twins' lineup. With Denard Span still recovering from the flu, Joe Crede with a swollen hand after being HBP yesterday and Joe Mauer just getting a day off, the lineup began with Carlos Gomez and Matt Tolbert in front of Justin Morneau. Span's OBP is .100 points higher than Gomez' and Mauer's OBP is literally double Tolbert's. Not surprisingly, the table wasn't set. Span's absence also forced Delmon Young into the lineup - he went 0-4 with 3 K for the second straight game. I guess I'll be charitable and write that off to him losing his timing after being out for a week and a half. Anyway, this was not the lineup that has been putting up so many runs this month.

And yet, they still managed to knock Penny out after 5.1 IP and score 5 R in the game. The last 2 came on Mauer's 2-out, PH HR off of Jonathan Papelbon. In just 23 games and 81 AB, Mauer already has 11 HR, 25 R, and 31 RBI while hitting .444/.530/.914. I don't think he needs to get another hit this week in order to win the AL Player of the Month award. Mike Redmond, in 2/3 the AB, has 0 HR, 2 R and 3 RBI while hitting .259/.322/.315. Obviously, Redmond wasn't going to be anywhere near as good as Mauer this year, but that's as drastic a drop off in production as we'll see from any starter to his backup.

Francisco Liriano got hit around a bit, but he pitched better than his line indicates. The big positive I'll take away from that outing was the 7 K and 0 BB in 4 IP. Remember, it was when he started limiting his walks last year at AAA when things started to take off for him. As for the 11 H, almost half of them were grounders that found their way through. In his 4 IP, Liriano didn't have a single ground ball turned into an out - that's unusually bad luck. And we can point the finger again to the lineup, where Brian Buscher was manning the hot corner instead of Crede. In the 3 run 3rd inning, there were 3 sharply hit balls that got by Buscher - one that went right through him, one just out of reach to his right, one just to his left. It's not difficult to imagine Crede at least knocking down all of those balls, 2 of which went for 2B and the other an RBI single. Maybe Liriano could have hung around a little longer with the Twins' best defense on the field.

All of this brings into stark relief something that might be easy to overlook when the Twins are scoring 5.3 R/G: there are actually only 6 productive hitters in the Twins' lineup (Span, Mauer, Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Crede). None of the other 7 position players has an OPS over .650. Nick Punto and Carlos Gomez at least contribute with above-average fielding, but it's a pretty weak team on the whole. That just goes to show what an incredible level of production we're seeing from the top 6. If they cool off at some point - and they almost certainly will - somebody else had better step up or it's going to be a long summer.

Minor League Notes

Danny Valencia drew 3 BB yesterday to raise his season line to .339/.432/.597 with a 26/20 K/BB ratio in 124 AB. He's hit .305/.367/.521 in 433 PA at AA, and has clearly improved from '08 to '09. Send him to Rochester already.

Mmmmmmm, Cheese

Twins 11, Brewers 3
Twins 6, Brewers 2
Twins 6, Brewers 3

After a discouraging 1-6 road trip, it's nice to come back to home, sweet Dome. The Brewers hadn't lost a series in weeks, but were easily taken apart by the Twins' offensive juggernaut. Led by Joe Mauer (5-8, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 RBI), Justin Morneau (6-10, 3B, HR, 7 RBI), Michael Cuddyer (5-11, 3B, HR, 2 BB, 5 RBI) and Joe Crede (4-10, 2 HR, 3 RBI), the middle of the order didn't miss a beat despite losing Jason Kubel to a swollen knee for the series. Cuddyer thrillingly gave the Twins their second cycle of the season, Morneau capped the series with the Twins' 4th grand slam of the year, and Mauer surpassed his HR production from all of 2008 in just his 22nd game.

Even better than the continuing onslaught from the hitters was the performance of the Twins' starting pitching. Kevin Slowey lasted into the 8th inning, Scott Baker lasted into the ninth, and Anthony Swarzak completed seven shutout innings. It was a most auspicious major league debut for Swarzak, who has been pitching very well ever since being promoted to Rochester. With Glen Perkins struggling in his outings prior to being placed on the DL, I wouldn't be so hasty about sending Swarzak to the bullpen when Perkins returns. We'll see how the next couple of starts go, but Swarzak has a higher upside than Perkins, who could actually do the Twins a lot of good as a middle reliever.

Now, bring on the Red Sox. I've been hoping for weeks that the Twins would get another chance at Brad Penny. He was lucky that they didn't destroy him in the 2nd half of that double-header in April - so many balls were hit hard and to the deepest parts of Fenway Park. The way the Twins are swinging right now, they're going to tear Penny apart if he brings the same stuff he had on that day.

The Last Laugh

White Sox 6, Twins 2
White Sox 7, Twins 4
Twins 20, White Sox 1

That was cathartic, huh?

After following up their hard-fought, narrow sweep at the hands of the Yankees with 2 rather poor games in the Windy City, the Twins emphatically ended their 6-game losing streak with their best all-around game since 2002 (a 23-2 drubbing of Cleveland, with both runs coming on Jim Thome solo HR, if I recall correctly).

Facing a pair of tough LHP in Mark Buerhle and John Danks, runs figured to be at a premium, so the Twins' starters for those games, Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano, needed to be a whole lot finer than they were. Baker issued a season-high 4 BB and served up 2 more HR, leaving after 5 IP with 105 pitches thrown. Liriano skated through 3 scoreless innings before allowing 7 R in the 4th, capped by the 2nd HR of the inning, Jermaine Dye's grand slam. He was gone after 4 IP and 90 pitches with 3 BB and only 1 K.

In each game, Scott Podsednik was picked off first, but wound up with a SB anyway when Nick Punto dropped Justin Morneau's throw on Tuesday and Michael Cuddyer's throw hit Podsednik for an E on Wednesday. (All 3 of Cuddyer's E have come playing 1B. In Chicago.) The offense's string of games with 5+ BB ended as they accumulated just 4 BB in the first 2 games. They continued to struggle with RISP, scoring 5 of their 6 R on HR or SF.

But then, the offense that had been bottled up all week burst out with an orgy of hitting that we hadn't seen in nearly 2 years. 20 H. Another 5 BB. 4 HR, including 3 with men on base! 6 of the starters with multi-hit games. Matt Tolbert went yard, for crying out loud!

Was the secret moving Joe Mauer up to the #2 slot? I was going to comment about how poorly that slot had performed for the Twins this year, but Gardy noticed and did something about it. He's too prone to leaving spring training with grand ideas about how players ought to perform, but once the team gets into late May, he makes adjustments that produce results. This performance by the offense should certainly reinforce the new lineup for awhile. I still think Cuddyer is swinging well enough right now to get a chance to break up what was, today, a string of 4 straight lefties at the top of the order.

Nick Blackburn, for his part, stayed pretty aggressive and won his first career game at the Cell. He got a huge break in the 3rd when Alexi Ramirez' bases-loaded liner went straight to Joe Crede, who found Podsednik too far off 1B for a DP. Blackburn got Dye to end the inning, and the Sox never threatened him again.

So here's the punchline: thanks to this afternoon's laugher, the Twins not only outscored the Sox in this series, they actually scored more runs than they allowed on the whole 1-6 road trip (42-35). Suddenly, the Twins' run differential for the season is only -6, and their 19-23 record starts to look rather unjust. Particularly their 8-12 May record; they're +17 in run differential for those 20 games. Hopefully, they won't end up like Cleveland last year.

Roster Move

In order to make room for Anthony Swarzak, who will indeed get a chance to take Glen Perkins' spot in the rotation, the Twins tried to clear Craig Breslow through waivers, but promptly lost him to the Oakland A's. Effectively, this means that the Twins traded Breslow for Sean Henn. Henn has been solid at Rochester this year, but he has lousy career numbers in the Bigs. Worst of all, he's not particularly good at getting out lefties: they have about a .760 OPS against him in his career. Breslow held lefties to about .640. He was off to a ghastly start this year, with BB and HR rates so unprecedented that there wasn't much reason to think they'd continue. Henn, meanwhile, has outperformed his career rates at Rochester, and so has nowhere to go but down.

This was another dumb move by Mr. Smith. Swarzak should have been called up on Tuesday, or Perkins should have been DLed today, but there was no reason to involve Henn or risk Breslow at all. But the strategic failure goes beyond these guys. It's this mental block everybody seems to have about there being more than 2 LHP in the bullpen. As long as 1 of them is awesome at getting out lefties and the others can also get out righties, who cares? Breslow and Jose Mijares, when pitching up to their ability, can get out both. The rationale for letting Dennys Reyes walk away was that Breslow and/or Mijares could fulfill his role for less money. Well, neither has filled his role, and now Henn will be asked to do it with his .760 OPS against. Reyes, meanwhile, has allowed a .472 OPS against lefties for the Cardinals, with 7 K and 1 BB against 28 batters faced so far. Think of all the lefties that have hurt the Twins' 'pen this year, and how nice it would have been to have an arm like that at their disposal. Sigh.

Minor League Notes

Whatever was bothering Alexi Casilla at the plate in the Majors, he didn't take it with him to Rochester. He's hitting .353/.411/.471 with 3 3B and a 8/5 K/BB ratio since his demotion. Tolbert had better keep hitting like he did on Thursday. And Danny Valencia and Anthony Slama have added to their promotion cases this week. Valencia hit his 5th HR today, raising his season line to .324/.409/.595, good for 2nd in the Eastern League in OPS. Slama struck out 2 in a scoreless inning on Wednesday, and now has 35 K in 22.1 IP with a 1.61 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, and still just the one HR allowed.

Patience and Perseverance

Twins 6, Tigers 2
Twins 14, Tigers 10 (13 innings)
Twins 6, Tigers 5

At last, a proper Dome stand. After going 2-2, 4-3 and 3-3 to open the season, the Twins were able to win 5 of 6 against Seattle and Detroit, and came within 2 innings of 6-0.

I will remember the first play of Tuesday night's game as the moment when I finally gave up on Delmon Young. It's possible to tolerate his absence of XBH and plate discipline while he's hitting close to .300, but not when he's also failing to make basic plays in the OF, like reading and catching Curtis Granderson's leadoff liner that sailed over his head for a 2B. Bert Blyleven charitably talked about how easy it is to lose the ball in the lights, but I don't think that's what happened. I think Young just misjudged it. Because he's a bad fielder. And he's not getting any better.

You think you've got a migraine, Delmon? Try watching yourself play. The Twins have a ton of OF between the Majors and AAA who can strike out 5 times as often as they walk and hit for minimal power. But most of them can at least catch the ball, and any of them would be more deserving of regular playing time than Young is right now. Take your time with your family this week, Delmon.

Fortunately, Slowey was able to pitch through that "hit" and another charged to him when Matt Tolbert exuberantly cut in front of Nick Punto on a chopper over the mound. Without those, he allowed only 6 H and 2 BB in 6 IP. The 2 BB doubled his season high, which I think was just an indication that plate umpire Ed Rapuano had way too tight of a zone.

That cut both ways, though, and the Twins took advantage of it by drawing another 7 BB against the Tigers' pitchers. The Twins have done well so far against Armando Galarraga. He's one of those pitchers who doesn't actually throw many strikes, but rather hopes that the movement of his pitches on the margins will induce swings out of the zone. If a hitter comes to the plate with the mentality that they're going to take a couple of strikes, they will usually find themselves ahead in the count, especially if the ump is conservative. Once there, they can pick out a pitch to drive.

The difference between a fly to the wall in LF and a HR can be as little as a foot or two - less than 1% of the total distance from home plate. Joe Mauer has that extra 1% this year, and because of it he's already hit nearly as many HR (4) in 35 AB as he had in his first 300 AB (5) last season. He would have had 5, in fact, had LF Clete Thomas not pulled his first-inning drive back onto the field. Mauer simply hit the ball harder in his next AB, getting the ball to nearly the same spot too fast for Thomas to make a leap.

Wednesday night's marathon was directly caused by plate umpire Paul Schrieber's even tighter strike zone. After one trip through the order (during which Glen Perkins needed to throw just 24 pitches), the Tigers must have noticed that Schrieber wasn't calling anything on the corners, so why were they swinging so early in the count? Perkins, who had walked just 8 batters in his first 6 starts, suddenly walked the bases loaded, where 2 runs could come in on a 2-out bouncer up the middle. (A better throw to the plate from Matt Tolbert, who short-hopped Mike Redmond, might have ended the inning with only one run scoring, saving us all a lot of trouble.) In the 5th, Granderson led off with a BB, stole 2nd, and eventually scored on a WP.

The bullpen has to burst into flames at least once every series, and this was the night. Luis Ayala couldn't retire the first 2 batters of the 7th, so in came Matt Guerrier, and Miguel Cabrera immediately took him deep to put the Tigers ahead. To their credit, the rest of the staff managed to put up zeroes until the 13th, when poor Jesse Crain was duped into balking by a feinted SB attempt by Granderson from 3B just as Crain was beginning his windup.

I said that the offense would have to carry the Twins through this next stretch of games. Every time the pitchers put the team behind, there was the offense to answer. 7 more BB. A couple of SF. A 2-run 3B from Denard Span after the Tigers had taken the lead in the top of the 6th. A 2-run, PH HR from Jason Kubel to tie the game in the 8th. With the Tigers' 'pen beleaguered from 2 straight short starts, Jim Leyland was forced to ride Brandon Lyon to the end of the game, though it would end on his 60th pitch.

I questioned whether giving up Span to put PR Nick Punto into scoring position for Matt Tolbert was a wise move, but Tolbert promptly delivered the game-tying single. 2 more BB filled the sacks for Joe Crede, who smashed a hanging slider into the LF seats for an emphatic, walk-off comeback win.

With Justin Verlander in the midst of a hot streak and both bullpens decimated, the game plan in the finale had to be to get as many innings as possible out of Scott Baker while making Verlander throw as many pitches as possible. Baker delivered by facing the minimum through 5 IP, but the 6th started with a broken-bat bloop single and a hit-and-run single to put runners at the corners with nobody out. Baker struck out the next man and got Granderson to pop up, but couldn't escape the jam when the next pitch was lined just over the glove of Jason Kubel in LF. Luckily, it hopped the fence for a ground-rule double, allowing only one run to score. Unluckily, Magglio Ordonez' grounder sneaked into CF scoring 2 more. Then Cabrera whacked another ground-rule double, and Clete Thomas went down to ground a shin-high curveball into CF for 2 more runs.

Suddenly down 5-0, and with Verlander striking out everyone in sight, it looked like the game was over. But Verlander was already approaching 100 pitches, and though he set his career high for K to start the 7th, Brian Buscher lined a single and Nick Punto drew a walk. With Verlander at 122 pitches and a succession of LH batters coming up, Leyland went to LOOGY Bobby Seay. Span greeted him with a single to load the bases, and Tolbert walked, forcing in a run. Joe Mauer grounded into an RBI FC. Justin Morneau pulled the first pitch into RF for an RBI single, then Jason Kubel raked a ground-rule 2B to right-center to bring the Twins within 1. Zach Miner came in, walked Michael Cuddyer, then gave up a bloop single to Crede to put the Twins ahead.

Craig Breslow earned his first win in his best appearance of the year: 1.2 scoreless IP with 0 BB. Guerrier and Nathan got the final 4 outs, and the Twins at last won a day game.

The selectiveness the Twins showed over this home stand will serve them well as they face the Yankees and White Sox on the road. They might need to keep scoring 6 R/G to be successful. I'm encouraged - things have to go better than they went at the old Yankee Stadium, right?

25 Good Innings

Twins 11, Mariners 0
Twins 9, Mariners 6
Mariners 5, Twins 3

The Twins came within 2 innings of a weekend sweep in which they never trailed - quite a departure from the first couple weeks of the season. Some observations from the series:

Last season I predicted that Joe Mauer would have a breakout year in the HR department because, with his legs back under him, all those warning track outs to left-center would have just enough extra on them to carry into the seats. It didn't happen in 2008, but so far he has 3 HR in his first 33 AB of 2009, all of them just over the wall in left-center. Mauer has been all-around awesome since coming off the DL. He'll cool off, of course, but there's no reason to think that this can't be his best ever OPS season. Provided he stays healthy, of course.

Right behind him is Justin Morneau, who twice followed Mauer's HR to left with blasts to RF, and came very close to having a 3rd straight game with a HR when his 3rd-inning drive on Sunday hit the top corner of the baggie in deep right-center. (That makes 2 balls from Morneau so far this season that would have been out just about everywhere but the Metrodome.)

As well as those two are swinging, I think it's time to move Cuddyer up in the order, if not between them, then certainly right after Morneau. For Cuddyer, the signal of whether or not he's seeing the ball well is his walk rate, which has been through the roof in recent weeks.

Scott Baker finally put it all together. He was so close to that level in his previous start - his failure last Sunday was in allowing all his hits consecutively - that I feel pretty confident that he's ready to resume his position as the Twins most consistent starter.

Did Francisco Liriano's outing on Saturday remind anybody of Baker's the previous week? He only made it once through the order without a hit, but it still fell apart awfully quickly. Thank goodness he got plenty of run support.

Nick Blackburn has, for the most part, been pretty good about following a poor start with a good one. That was the case again on Sunday, when he pitched his best all-around game of the season, allowing only 5 H and 1 BB in 7 IP with 6 K - nearly matching Baker's outing. I was impressed with how Blackburn was able to pitch out of a runners at the corners with no out jam early in the game.

With Blackburn at 99 pitches and lefties Ichiro and Griffey Jr. due up in the 8th, it made sense to go to the LHP 8th inning guy, Jose Mijares. He was scored upon for the second straight outing, in this case on a game-tying HR to Griffey. Griffey, by the way, is slugging .611 vs. the Twins this year, and just .317 vs. everybody else. Jesse Crain came on and failed to retire a batter, including sending a run home on a WP. The first batter he faced was Adrian Beltre. He's sluggling .680 vs. the Twins, but just .243 vs. everyone else. So what does everybody else know that the Twins pitchers don't?

Sunday was a rare example of a game in which the team that threw drastically more pitches managed to win. I love that the Twins, having chased Seattle's starters early on in the first two games of the series, were able to grind Erik Bedard out of the game with 110 pitches thrown in just 4.2 IP. It's a credit to Bedard's abilities that he was able to limit the damage to just 2 runs. Anyway, that kind of patient approach is going to pay dividends if the Twins will keep it up in future games.

Buzz Kill

Twins 7, Royals 5
Royals 10, Twins 7 (11 innings)
Royals 7, Twins 5
Welcome back, Joe Mauer! What an emphatic return to the lineup, launching a HR on his first swing and a 2B on his second. He finished the weekend 7 for 10 with a walk, HR and 2 2B, including a 2-out RBI pinch single off Joakim Soria. Just like that, the Twins put up 19 R in 3 games against what had been one of the league's better pitching staffs coming in.

But I don't feel good tonight. Nope.

All three Twins starters managed to give up 5 ER. Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins each gave up big 2-out hits. Scott Baker rattled off another string of outs (18 of 19, carrying a no-hitter into the 7th), but ultimately found himself in the same place as his last start, exactly where Francisco Liriano was a couple of weeks ago - pitching pretty well, except for allowing so many hits to be clustered together. (By the way, this is why I think ERA is a better measure of pitching performance than WHIP. Baker's ERA on Sunday was 7.50, which is bad, but his WHIP was 1.00, which is good. It should be clear that "bad" is more descriptive of the way the game ended.) All three were OK for stretches of the game, but didn't execute their pitches at critical junctures and ended up walking away with lousy lines that put a ton of extra pressure on what was, for the most part, a very productive offense.

What really upset me about this series was the litany of no-nos the Twins committed:

- You do not make the 3rd out at 3rd base. You especially don't do that when the next batter is a scorching-hot 2-time batting champ.

- You do not walk the leadoff hitter. You especially don't do that in extra innings.

- You do not walk someone who is trying to bunt.

- You do not walk in a run. You especially don't do that in extra innings.

- You do not give up HR on 0-2 pitches.

I'm probably forgetting some. The last 2 games were easily winnable had the Twins played even average baseball. Apart from the isolated defensive and baserunning miscues, what really stood out was the ineffectiveness of the back half of the Twins' bullpen. Having used Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and Joe Nathan rather extensively on Friday and Saturday, Gardy was forced by the extra innings into going to Craig Breslow to start the 11th. Breslow has been reasonably effective when he's throwing strikes. But he's walked at least 1 batter in 5 of his last 6 appearances, including 3 in this game. That forced Gardy to go to the last guy in the 'pen - R.A. Dickey - with the bases loaded. Not surprisingly, some runs scored.

With everyone else exhausted, Gardy had to go to the combustible Luis Ayala and Dickey again on Sunday, and they allowed 4 runs to score while they were on the hill. I could give Ayala a few more weeks to put things together, but Dickey should be back in Rochester. Had the starters fared better this weekend, that likely would have been the decision when Jesse Crain was activated from the 15-day DL. Instead, Gardy decided to go right back to his 12-man bullpen. As long as Dickey is the 12th man.

The Royals will be greatly inspired by this series win, using it to build confidence that they may be able to draw on later in the season. They aren't so much worse than the rest of the division that they can be taken lightly. The Twins had an opportunity to win a series from a division rival at home, and they bumbled it away. I can't help feeling that it might come back to haunt them later on.

Minor League Notes
Anthony Slama finally gave up his first professional HR last night, though he was still able to earn a save for New Britain. Rob Delaney has already thrown 17.2 IP in the first 22 games of the season. I think it might be a good time to give those guys a little bit of a break - I don't want them to be burned out by the time the Twins call them up later this year.

April Showers

Red Sox 10, Twins 1
This was vintage Scott Baker. 2006 vintage. Not a good year.

I'll cut him a break on the first inning hits - they weren't so much well hit as well placed. The rest were richly deserved, as Baker consistently missed badly with his fastball, walking the backup catcher in front of a bomb from SS Nick Green, then hanging pitch after pitch in the 3rd, resulting in only 2 runs thanks to Michael Cuddyer's diving catch of Jason Bay's liner before Mike Lowell's HR. Baker looks totally uncomfortable on the mound - he walked off the field dejectedly after every inning. But I guess this was a little better than his first start - he allowed 1 fewer HR and got 2 more outs. Baby steps.

The Twins have never done much against Tim Wakefield, and he was tough again today, inducing a ton of popups. The offense was able to get a few guys into scoring position, but they couldn't string any hits together.

I was struck by how the quirky dimensions of Fenway Park played well for the Sox today. Had this game been played at the Metrodome, Denard Span's 7th-inning double would have been a HR, Kevin Youkilis' first-inning HR would have been a double (if not a foul ball), and David Ortiz' 7th-inning double would have been an out.

We got another look at waiver-wire pickup Juan Morillo in a mop-up situation, and the results were ugly. After the afore-mentioned double to Ortiz, he walked 3 straight batters, forcing in a run, and left without retiring a batter. His fastball was consistently in the high 90s, for all the good it did him. R.A. Dickey came on and surrendered an RBI single, a SF, and a bloop ground-rule double. Mercifully, the umps called for the tarp and the game ended before the inning could get any worse.

Red Sox 7, Twins 3
Of the two games, this was the matchup I liked. Brad Penny came into the game with an ERA of 11.00, and Francisco Liriano was coming off of a QS vs. the Blue Jays.

It was obvious that Liriano had electric stuff. He struck out 4 of the first 6 hitters, allowing only a BB to JD Drew. His first pitch to Jason Varitek was a slider that hit him in the back foot. After Liriano had made a string of All-Star players look silly, Jeff Bailey, just recalled from AAA, was able to time an outside fastball and lift it just over the monster in LF for a 3-run HR. Are you kidding me? The other 3 H Liriano allowed were all doubles. The one hit by Dustin Pedroia that set up the 3rd inning rally was a ridiculous piece of hitting as he went down and got a shin high pitch off the inside part of the plate and somehow kept it fair down the LF line.

Liriano was his own worst enemy in this game. As great as his stuff was, he couldn't control it, resulting in 4 BB and a HBP. 4 of those 5 hitters wound up scoring. Liriano will be very tough to score against once he tightens up his control.

It should be noted that the bullpen did a terrific job tonight. Matt Guerrier, Luis Ayala and the newly recalled Jose Mijares combined to allow 1 H in 4 scoreless innings with 3 K. Mijares threw nothing but strikes.

On the offensive side of things, the box score doesn't come close to telling the story. Penny's stuff was awful - he couldn't get his curveball over and there was no movement on his fastball. From the first batter, the Twins smacked line drives all over the field. Had this game been played in a different park, or in different weather conditions, they might have hit 5 HR: Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Cuddyer and Delmon Young (twice) hit drives to the warning track or beyond in deepest CF. In the top of the 4th, Morneau led off with a laser HR into the seats beyond the bullpen. Two pitches later, Kubel hit a nearly identical drive just a few feet to the left that missed the stands for a ground-rule double. After Brian Buscher reached on an error, Delmon Young hit the deepest ball of all, which CF Jacoby Ellsbury was able to haul in with a leaping catch at the wall about 420 feet from home plate. In addition to the 6 H they collected, the Twins hit 7 other balls off Penny well enough to get hits. There were 4 IF liners in the game, 2 of which were in Pedroia's glove so quickly that the men on 1st were helpless to avoid being doubled off. Not our night.

Mauer's Rehab or The Rake's Progress
Joe Mauer caught 6 innings of an extended spring training game today, going 3-4 with a double and a SF and throwing out an attempted base stealer. The other day I suggested that the Twins should think about accelerating their timetable if Mauer went 8-16 with 4 BB and had shown he could catch at least 6 innings by the end of play on Thursday. He's 6-11 with 3 BB so far. Think he can go 2-5 tomorrow? Me too. Doesn't look like he needs another week to get his timing down.

Let's think this through. Mauer will likely DH on Thursday, setting himself up for 7 innings of catching Friday, DH duty Saturday, 8 innings Sunday, DH Monday, 9 innings Tuesday and as many innings as he can handle Wednesday before next Thursday's off day. Why can't he follow that schedule with the Twins? This weekend's series is in Cleveland, which means that Mauer could meet his 7-inning catching quota and still hit in the top of the 8th before being replaced by a lesser player. On Sunday, that gets him every inning but the 9th, and his usage would be normal for the Tampa series at the Metrodome.

What if he aggravates the injury? Well, what if he aggravates it in Fort Myers? Is there something that could happen to him in Cleveland that couldn't happen to him in Florida? Take the gamble. If he gets hurt again, say he would've been hurt anyway and put him back on the DL. If he doesn't get hurt, the Twins get to play 5 or 6 extra games with Mauer in the lineup. Through tonight's game, Mike Redmond and Jose Morales are hitting .231/.298/.288 and still haven't thrown out a base stealer. Mauer could almost top that OBP without taking the bat off his shoulder. This is a tight division race - every game counts. Don't waste a week of Mauer's production on the Florida State League.

Minor League Notes
Another good night for Rob Delaney and Anthony Slama, who combined to strike out 5 in the final 3.1 innings of New Britain's win tonight. Delaney now has 10.2 IP under his belt and has allowed only 9 H, 0 BB and 15 K. Slama has thrown 6.2 IP, allowing 4 H and 2 BB with 12 K. If they keep this up, they need to be in Rochester by June.

The Injury Front

Mauer's Timetable
The Twins announced over the weekend that Joe Mauer's rehab assignment begins today. The idea is for him to get about 50 AB, probably lasting about 10 games and bringing him back to the team around May 1. I'm glad that they've finally given us a date to look forward to. While 50 AB would be a pretty good way to make up for the time he missed in spring training, I don't think they should feel locked into that number.

Today, Mauer went 1-3 with 2 BB, and was able to run from first to third on one play and score from first on another. He spent 5 innings behind the plate, and will DH tomorrow. Now, let's say he jumps right back into his swing, and by the end of Thursday is 8-16 with 4 BB and has shown that he can run the bases and catch 6 innings without any discomfort. What would be the sense of putting him into 6 more games with Fort Myers, when the Twins are playing 3 against their most formidable division rivals and 3 against the defending AL champs?

Maybe he won't be conditioned enough to catch a full 9 innings, and he'll have to DH or rest after every start behind the plate. So what? Through the first 2 weeks of the season, Mike Redmond and Jose Morales have combined to hit .261/.333/.326 while failing to throw out a single attempted base stealer. Wouldn't it make a worthwhile difference to have Mauer's .400+ OBP in the lineup, even if it's only for 3 AB? Or to have his gold glove behind the plate, even if it's only for 6-7 innings every other game? If he's healthy enough to demolish the Florida State League, then he's healthy enough to do some damage against Cleveland and Tampa. Unless he's lost at the plate this week or suffers a setback, I'd encourage the Twins to bring him back up ASAP - the division is too close for them to be giving away games needlessly.

Crain to the DL
Apparently Jesse Crain's brutal 7th inning on Friday was so taxing that he's experiencing some inflammation in his shoulder, so the Twins are going to give him a couple of weeks to rest. Other than that disastrous inning, Crain had been the Twins most reliable reliever not named Joe Nathan all spring, allowing just 1 ER on 1 H and 2 BB with 6 K in 5.2 IP prior to his last appearance. I hope he'll be back in the minimum amount of time and can continue to be as effective as he was prior to the injury - there doesn't seem to be anyone else in the bullpen who can be relied upon right now.

Crain's injury gives a quick opportunity for Jose Mijares, whose awful spring training performance (and conditioning) cost him what many considered to be a certain roster spot. He's looked like the Mijares of last September in his early work with the Red Wings, allowing 0 ER on 2 H and 1 BB with 4 K in 6.1 IP. Obviously, if he can carry that kind of performance up to the Big Leagues, he won't be going back to AAA.

Back to the Games

It was great to get to listen to a game after more than a week of going without. Even if it was the Orioles broadcast, and they aired pre-taped interviews during the top of the 7th and 8th innings. And then started singing show tunes in the 9th when they couldn't pronounce our players' names correctly ("I feel Pridie..."). They're obviously bored already.

Despite tallying 17 H in the game, the Twins managed just 4 R, thanks to some especially poor hitting with RISP by Mike Redmond and Brendan Harris. Bad base running was also a problem, as the Twins ran themselves out of rallies in the 1st, when Michael Cuddyer got doubled off 2nd base, and the 4th, when Carlos Gomez got picked off after a leadoff single. Joe Crede got off the schnide, though, and Jason Kubel continues to swing a hot bat - save some of that for April!

Not a great day for Glen Perkins, although not many of the hits he gave up were hit hard. The biggest blow against him was a bloop single down the RF line by Greg Zaun that plated one run and sent another runner to 3rd where he was able to come home on a SF. Perkins seemed to tire in the 3rd, walking 2 to load the bases before escaping unscathed. Nick Blackburn had another efficient inning in his return to game action. And RA Dickey continues to make a strong case for a roster spot with another scoreless frame including 2 K.

The best news of the day, of course, came from back in Fort Myers, where Joe Mauer's MRA revealed no additional problems. The doctors will make an adjustment in the medication he's already been taking to relieve the inflammation in his lower back. Hopefully, that will give him an opportunity to get on the field in time to be ready for the season. We've only got 3 and a half weeks to go, and it's a much bigger step down from Mauer to Redmond than it was a couple of years ago.

Extension

For the past three weeks, Bill Smith and I have been involved in a bit of a staring contest. He bet me that I would write a blog entry before he made his next move. I can be stubborn, and I had my Facebook Word Twist addiction to occupy me, so the silence went on. When the news of Jason Kubel's contract extension broke last week, I figured I had him. But it was conditional on the results of a physical, a mere formality, yet no terms have been released for almost a week now.

So, like the Red Sox last winter, I give up. I cannot endure another day of waiting for you to do something, Bill! Enjoy your Mets package/Livan Hernandez February dregs.

Luckily, my favorite bloggers have kept busy ranking prospects and analyzing the rest of the division. And the Twins Geek provocatively suggested that signing Joe Mauer to an extension might be more trouble than it's worth. I have to comment on that piece.

It's very well written, with propulsive logic that leads to a 7-year, $119 million extension complete with no-trade and opt-out clauses. This because Mauer wouldn't settle for a 2-year, $28 million extension through 2012 (which would give him the highest ever salary for a catcher). To steal a bit of a phrase from our melodiously articulate new president, I reject as false the choice between 2 years and 7 years. I think the Twins should offer him 4 years.

A 4-year extension, combined with the 2 years remaining on his current contract, would total a 6-year package, the same duration as the more durable Justin Morneau received this time last year. While Mauer rates better than Morneau in many of the newer, more sophisticated metrics like VORP and WARP, Morneau's edge in the traditional stats like HR and RBI keeps him ahead of Mauer in the MVP voting. So, while Mauer's side could make a legitimate argument that he's a more valuable player than Morneau and therefore should get a bigger, longer contract, the Twins could counter-argue that Morneau is the more valuable and that Mauer's deal should be lesser. But let's not fight. Why don't we split the difference and give Mauer essentially the same deal?

The total value of Morneau's deal was 6-years, $80 million including a $6 million signing bonus. I would propose to pay Mauer the same salary as Morneau over the final three years of Morneau's deal: $14 million/year. Again, that makes Mauer the highest-paid catcher in history. After Morneau's gone, we don't need to worry about balancing things, so Mauer can get a raise to $16 million for 2014. That's $58 million added to the $23 million he still has left on his current deal, totaling $81 million for the 6 years. Throw in the same signing bonus and performance bonuses (for All-Star appearances, Gold Gloves and top-6 MVP finishes - all of which should be pretty routine if he's healthy) and the average annual value of that deal should exceed $14.5 million. Mauer's people can take pride in the fact that he will be the highest-paid Twin ever, while not making Morneau look like the Twins value him less.

There should probably be a no-trade clause, and the Twins shouldn't be shy about including it. The reason to offer this extension in the first place is because you want to ensure that Mauer is the face of the franchise for the next six years. He's Cal Ripken, or Tony Gwynn, or Kirbie Puckett. If the rest of the team falls apart around him, he's the cornerstone on which it is rebuilt.

But for that reason, there should not be an opt-out clause. The GMs who have agreed to those have been pretty foolish, and have found themselves suddenly without players who had been in their long-term plans. While it is conceivable that Russell Martin or Giovanni Soto might get a contract paying over $14 million/year at some point during the life of the deal, it's hard to imagine that they could exceed it by much, especially given the uncertainty in the economy and the difficulty all but the very top free agents have faced this offseason. Mauer shouldn't accept this offer just because he wants to be the Majors' highest-paid catcher. He should accept it because he wants security.

Look at how quickly earning power fell apart for some recently elite players who had the misfortune of suffering injuries. Eric Gagne was the best closer in the game a few years ago, but he'll make a fraction of what the K-Rods and Fuentes' and Woods' are getting when he finally signs. Rafael Furcal's back injury probably took at least a year and $30 million off the offers he got. Mauer has spent significant time on the DL in 2 of his 5 MLB seasons. He plays the most physically demanding position in the game. He must know that the chances of his missing a lot of playing time at some point in the future are pretty good. What if he breaks his wrist in a collision midway through 2010? Will he be able to pick up his hitting and throwing right where he left off? Will teams risk lots of guaranteed years and dollars on a guy who needs to rehab, who may never regain his form? For the Twins to set his mind at ease about those scenarios for the remainder of his prime years while paying him better than anyone else at his position should be worth some commitment on his part.

And Twins Geek's assertion that the Twins tend to rebuild every few years isn't really accurate. The turnover that occurred last season was the result of valued players getting better offers elsewhere. It wasn't that the Twins weren't making an effort to be competitive. And, thanks to strong player development and a relatively soft division, they managed to compete all the way to the last day of the season, even in a supposed rebuilding year. The inactivity this offseason says as much about management's confidence in the team it has as it does about their unwillingness to bring in risky/marginal/overpriced pieces. 1999 was rebuilding - the Twins haven't done anything close to that for 10 years now. With the new ballpark about to open, and the dynamics of the division unlikely to change a whole lot, they should have the ability to compete throughout the life of the contract. Mauer can be confident that he's part of a team that has a chance to win.

So yes, Twins Geek, I'm sure I want to sign Mauer to an extension. Not an outlandish, New York extension, but a sensible, Minnesota extension. Mauer should appreciate that.

Recognition

For once, I was pretty pleased with the way the MLB awards were handed out this year. Normally, the writers make at least one terrible call based on won-lost record or RBIs or - even worse - team performance. They had a great opportunity to do that again with NL MVP, with Phillie Ryan Howard a mile ahead in HR and RBI, but wisely gave the award to Albert Pujols instead, despite his team failing to make the playoffs. Sure, Johan Santana once again missed out on the Cy Young due to poor run support, but Tim Lincecum was clearly the next best choice, finishing in the top 3 in the NL in IP, K, ERA and, yes, W.

The Twins didn't pick up any of the big awards after Joe Mauer's batting title. Mauer also took home a Gold Glove, and he and Justin Morneau were given Silver Sluggers for being the best hitters at their respective positions (a little strange, considering Kevin Youkilis topped Morneau in BA, OBP, SLG% and HR). Despite missing out on the hardware, the Twins did get some pretty serious respect from the voters.

Ron Gardenhire came in 2nd in the Manager of the Year voting, the 4th time he's been runner-up for the award. I'll be the first to admit that he is often very slow to make personnel changes, and he pretty consistently makes some bad picks out of spring training. But the fundamentals of the team are always pretty strong, and by July, he's usually got things figured out. The Twins seem to outperform the projections every year, and Gardy's leadership is most likely a factor. His career win percentage is now .549 (average season: 89-73). He has his shortcomings, but I'm still glad to have him around through at least 2011.

Morneau came in 2nd for AL MVP and Mauer was 4th. Each of them received more than one first-place vote. Morneau might have come even closer had he managed one more big hit over the season's final 2 weeks - that might have brought him the RBI title and brought his team to the postseason. For him to finish ahead of Youkilis shows tremendous respect from the national writers. The same goes for Mauer, who drew a lot more votes than you'd expect for a big #3 hitter who had just 9 HR and 85 RBi. Clearly, the Twins have 2 elite players in the heart of their lineup, and don't need too much more around them to be a perennial force in the division. (Also, this wouldn't be a bad time to start thinking about an extension for Mauer - don't want to end up in the same situation they were in with Santana last year.)

It was also nice to see a couple of Twins rookies get some votes in the ROY balloting. Denard Span drew 3 3rd-place votes even though he spent almost half the season in the minors. Had the Twins wisely chosen to give him the CF job out of spring training, his numbers might have been better than those of the 3rd-place finisher, Jacoby Ellsbury. And Nick Blackburn got 1 point. His season was bookended by 1-0 losses, and in between he got 5 no-decisions after handing a lead to the bullpen. How many more votes would he have earned with 15 or so wins to go along with his 4.05 ERA and 193.1 IP?

The Twins have some very exciting players on the roster, and most of them are just entering their prime. They're all under team control for at least the next two years. We have a lot to look forward to.

Fit To Be Tied

Despite the best efforts of Jim Leyland and Freddie Garcia, the injury-depleted Tigers lineup couldn't do much against a short-rested Gavin Floyd, and when Garcia had to leave the game with a shoulder strain after 5+ innings, the Tigers showed why they're a last place team. In case you missed it, the sequence went: walk, stolen base, (new pitcher), wild pitch, wild pitch walk tying run scored, (new pitcher) wild pitch, strikeout, intentional walk, unintentional walk, (new pitcher) grand slam. 4 pitchers combined to give up 5 ER on 1 H, 4 BB and 3 WP in 1/3 of an inning. The first White Sox run came from walk, walk, ground-ball single. The last two came from IF hit, stolen base, double, wild pitch, fielding error. All together, the Sox got 8 R on 6 H, 6 BB, 4 WP and an error. 5 of the 6 batters who walked came around to score.

So the Twins and White Sox wind up with identical records through 162 games - fitting, since neither was able to separated from the other by more than a couple games for most of the season - and will meet tonight for 1 game to decide the division. The teams have identical home/road splits as well, which is a bad break for the Twins, since the coin flip determined that this game would be played in Chicago, where the Sox are 53-28. I'll preview the game in a minute, but first I have to take a minute to look back.

Tied.

That means 1 game would have made tonight unnecessary. Any loss turned into a win. One better AB, one better bounce. I'm sure everyone can think of several games that the Twins should have won this season. My dad is partial to the extra-inning loss in Cleveland 2 weeks ago that I commented on yesterday. Here's my favorite:

August 10th in KC. Scott Baker pitches 7 strong innings, handing a 4-2 lead to the bullpen. In steps Matt Guerrier, in the early stages of his collapse, to allow 2 hits and only one out. In comes Dennys Reyes to face consecutive lefties. He throws a wild pitch to allow one run to score, but induces easy ground balls from each batter he faces. The first advances the tying run to 3rd. The second is a routine two-hopper to short, not too hard, not too soft. Adam Everett fields it cleanly, sets his feet, and throws too high to first base, forcing Mike Lamb (Justin Morneau was the DH that day) to leap off the bag to catch the ball. Safe at first, the tying run scores, and the Twins go on to lose 5-4 in 12 innings.

How about another one? September 3rd in Toronto. The Twins lead 3-2 with 2 out in the bottom of the 9th and a runner on 1st. Joe Nathan is battling Toronto wonder-prospect Travis Snider, who works the count to 3-2 before lining the ball into right-center. There is no outfielder in sight, and with the runner going, a run seems possible. But the Twins have inserted September call-up Jason Pridie into RF, and he is speedy enough to cut the ball off - he even rounds it and points his hips toward the infield. If he just picks the ball up off the Sky Dome field turf, the runner stops at 3rd. Instead, the ball clanged off the heal of his glove, allowing the tying run to score. Nathan struck the next batter out. The Twins went on to lose in 11 innings.

I mention these two games because so many of the little things that cause you to lose baseball games aren't really within your control. If only he'd made a better pitch, if only he'd laid off that slider in the dirt, if only Sizemore's HR off the foul pole had hooked a bit more. Well, those things don't always work out, but sometimes they do. It usually evens out over 162 games. But errors are different. You don't have to wish the ball was pitched or hit any differently. All a MLB fielder had to do was make a routine play, and the tying run would never have scored. I like the KC example better because Pridie was making his MLB debut, and did have to run a long way to cut off the ball. Everett is a veteran of many seasons, and the ball was hit right to him, and he didn't have to rush. He just blew it.

And so, thanks to that (or whatever your favorite missed opportunity happens to be), the Twins play tonight. I guess it's fitting that they need to win on the road to keep their season alive, after so many of their failures happened away from home. All 6 of Nathan's blown saves, most of which were helped along by poor defense. Egregious sweeps by the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays and White Sox. That 4-game Sox sweep in early June was probably the low point of the season for the Twins. Coming into the series, they were 2-3 vs. the Sox in Chicago. They'll have to make up for their failure in that series by playing well tonight.

The pitching matchup is about as favorable as it could be. The Twins have terrific career numbers vs. John Danks, and he's going to be working on short rest. Apart from Francisco Liriano (who would be on short rest), Nick Blackburn is the least likely of the Twins' starters to allow a HR, and the most likely to induce grounders. On a night when the wind could be blowing out against the most prolific HR team in the league, that's a good thing.

My Keys to the Game:

1. Keep it in the Yard
The way they've been swinging the bats lately, I seriously doubt that the White Sox will be able to score more than a couple of runs without help from the long ball.

2. No Free Passes
Blackburn is also unlikely to allow a lot of walks, but he gives up a high enough BAA that he'd better not give away any bases. Again, the way the Sox have been swinging lately, I can't see them stringing enough hits together to score more than a couple of runs.

3. Catch the Ball
This game wouldn't be happening if the Twins had played their typical solid defense this year. Just for one night, let's make all the plays - no extra bases, no extra outs. If the Sox have to earn every base, I can't see them scoring more than a couple of runs.

4. Run Like Hell
The Twins have a huge speed advantage over the Sox. This will hopefully help them cut off balls in the gaps. But they also need to pressure the White Sox on defense. With Crede out, they're shaky at the corner IF and old and slow in the OF, and their catcher is one of the easiest to run on in all of baseball. Bunt, steal, hit and run, go first-to-third - run, run, run.

5. Set the Table
To take advantage of their speed, the Twins' speed guys will have to get on. Wouldn't it be great to have another night like last Thursday, when Carlos Gomez, Denard Span and Alexi Casilla went 9-14 with a walk?

6. Feast
Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Michael Cuddyer all have monster career numbers vs. Danks. When they come up with men on, they have to get hits. Morneau, in particular, needs to atone for flat last week of the season and see if he can't steal back the AL RBI title.

It's funny how the Twins and White Sox play such completely different offensive styles, yet accumulated the same record. In addition to everything else at stake tonight, this game is a mini-referendum on Ty Cobb-style baseball vs. Babe Ruth-style: the speedy little singles hitters vs. the big, slow, boppers. I know which side I'd like to see prevail.

In the Clubhouse

Twins 6, Royals 0
Magic Number: 1

First of all, thank you to Scott Baker for giving the Twins the 2nd best game of his career on a day when they had to win. Obviously, the CG vs. the Royals last year when he took a perfect game into the 9th was better. But today, he allowed just 4 singles in 7 IP and set a new career high with 9 K. Before the season began, I said Baker would be the Twins' #1 starter. With his performances on this home stand (14 IP, 1 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 13 K) he proved that he's an ace. Lots of teams have good pitchers, but an ace is someone who is good when his team has to have a win. We saw a couple this weekend: Johan Santana (3 H CG shutout, 9 K on 3 days' rest) and CC Sabathia (4 H CG shutout, 7 K on 3 days' rest). I hope Baker will get a chance to cement his ace status in the playoffs.

Baker might have been able to complete the game, had Gardy wanted to take him out to 120 or so pitches like Sabathia and Santana threw. The Mets and Brewers have very dicey bullpens, so you'd better leave the ace in there. The Twins can rely on Joe Nathan, of course, but the 8th has been a nightmare since Pat Neshek went down - until Jose Mijares showed up, that is. He allowed just 1 ER in 9 September innings (that coming when Matt Guerrier was on the mound) on 3 H (one a "double" that Delmon Young lost in the ceiling). He and Nathan combined with Baker to hold the Royals to a score even the Twins' sputtering offense could overcome.

I was afraid we were asking for a repeat of Saturday's defeat when the Twins left 7 men on base over the first 3 innings, including 5 in scoring position. They could only muster 2 R from 4 BB, 2 HBP and 2 E, thanks mostly to the fact that they only came up with 2 H. In the 7th, the Twins loaded the bases again, and finally got an RBI hit from Young to give themselves some breathing room. Joe Mauer delivered a 2-run triple in the 8th to put the game away.

Mauer finished the day 2-5, giving him a .330 BA for the season. I guess his batting title isn't official until it's determined if the Twins will play on Tuesday - stats from that game count towards the regular season (although if Morneau were to come up with 2 RBi in game #163, Josh Hamilton would have a right to be ticked). But according to my math, he should have enough even if he goes 0-5.

Now the Twins are like a golfer who has finished his round with a 1-stroke lead. He chills out in the clubhouse while his opponent heads to the 18th tee needing a birdie to force a playoff. With the exception of Mark Buehrle's performance on Sunday, the White Sox have been awful this week starting on short rest. Today, it's Gavin Floyd's turn. Jim Leyland will surely be pumped up to ruin the season for the Sox, but will his team of underachievers follow his lead? Freddie Garcia will start for the Tigers having made 2 starts this season - 1 good, 1 bad. Can he beat his former team? Can he stay in the game long enough to protect his combustible bullpen? Do the Sox have one more crappy game in them?

I guess I'll be watching. Go Tigers.

Cleveland Rocks

Royals 8, Twins 1
Magic Number: 3

Practically nothing went right for the Twins on Friday night. Francisco Liriano was eaten alive by a relentless stream of bloopers and bleeders, with the occasional liner thrown in for good measure. Up, down, inside, outside - it didn't matter where he threw the ball, the Royals' hitters put it in play somewhere a Twins defender couldn't get to it.

If your pitchers can't get anybody out, you might as well have a horrible night at the plate, too, and the Twins did. Kyle Davies was as on as he can be. Hitters got fastballs when they were expecting sliders, changeups when they were expecting fastballs. Nothing worked. At least Joe Mauer got a couple of hits, raising his average to .331 and extending his lead in the batting race.

That's OK. We just need things to revert to averages now. On average, the Twins win 2 out of every 3 games at home. They'll need to win the last 2 to make sure that happens here. They average just over 5 R/game, which would get them about 15 R per 3-game series. That means they should get 14 R over the next 2 games (7 & 7 would suit me best). They allow an average of 4.63 R/game, or a little under 14 R per series. That means they should only give up 6 R over the next 2 games. The Royals' season averages for runs allowed and scored suggest corresponding outcomes. A couple of 7-3 wins today and tomorrow would be most satisfying. Make that happen, OK fellas?

Fortunately, Ryan Garko and the Cleveland Indians outslugged the White Sox last night, so the Twins are still in first, and the Magic Number has declined to 3. I thought that might be Chicago's best chance to win - from here on out they're starting guys on 3 days' rest. I read that the Indians might skip Cliff Lee on Sunday because he's got a bit of a sore neck. All I can say to that it, "Suck it up, you pussy!" I don't know who would pitch instead of him, but it wouldn't be quite as good, would it? Of course, the Twins have lucked out for Sunday - the Royals have decided to skip Zach Greinke's regular turn because he's already reached 200+ IP. They'll get Brandon Duckworth instead, which should be a lot easier.

If anybody thought the Royals were just going to lay down, that impression should be obliterated after last night. They are the hottest team in the league right now, and the Twins are going to have to fight them with everything they have to claim these last 2 wins and clinch a first-place tie.

Home Stretch

Rays 11, Twins 1
Rays 7, Twins 2
Twins 4, Rays 1

Obviously, it wasn't a great weekend for the Twins - losing 2 of 3 while being outscored 19-7 ensures that. However, the Rays are easily the best home team in the league, so for the Twins to split the 4 games overall was a good accomplishment. Tuesday's failure (on so many levels) in Cleveland was the difference between the .500 road trip the Twins were hoping for and the 4-6 mark they actually achieved.

What was disconcerting about this weekend was the performance of the starting pitchers. When Francisco Liriano rode to the rescue on Sunday with 7 strong IP, he surpassed the combined innings total from the previous three starts. I thought Nick Blackburn was kind of unlucky in the first inning on Friday, as a couple of the Tampa hitters sliced fly balls into the opposite corners just out of reach of the outfielders. But he completely came apart in the 2nd, walking 3 (one intentionally), including walking in a run to finish his outing. The only out Kevin Slowey was able to get in the 5th inning of his start was a throw-out by Joe Mauer on an attempted steal.

While Blackburn and Slowey (and select members of the Twins' bullpen) were being ground down by the Rays' lineup, the Twins hitters were completely befuddled by the Rays' starters. Edwin Jackson and Scott Kazmir combined for 13.2 IP, 1 ER, 12 H, 2 BB, 10 K. In the two games, the Twins' offense mustered just 14 H (1 double) and 6 BB. Once again, the Rays brutally outslugged the Twins, collecting 10 more XBH out of 21 total, including 3 more HR.

Liriano restored order with his 7 IP, allowing just 5 H (1 double) and 1 ER while striking out 7. He did allow 4 BB, the highest total since his ill-advised call-up in April, but given the abnormally high BB totals for Blackburn and Slowey, I'm going to write that off as a credit to a very patient Rays offense. Jose Mijares and Joe Nathan combined to finish the game with 2 perfect innings.

Mauer led an opportunistic Twins offense on Sunday. While Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel were going 0-8, it was Mike Redmond, Adam Everett and Carlos Gomez who drove in the runs. Mauer led off the 4th with a walk, beat out a force attempt at 2nd off the bat of Justin Morneau, and scored on a single from Redmond. After Brian Buscher flew out, Everett beat out a dribbler to 3rd, scoring Morneau and Redmond when the throw from 3B Evan Longoria skipped up the RF foul line. With Everett now at 3rd, Gomez pulled off a push bunt single, demonstrating again the only appropriate time to dive into first base.

For the series Mauer was 8-15 with 2 BB, and, with a 6-point lead in the batting race, is now in the driver's seat for a second batting title. Morneau still leads the RBI race by 3. Both of them need to have good final weeks, for lots of reasons.

The Twins finished their road schedule with a record of 36-45. I can think of 4-5 of those games just in the past two months that easily could have (should have?) been wins, and could have given the Twins an essentially .500 road record. Oh well, they'll have to do better next year.

The final series with the White Sox is upon us. Beginning 2.5 games back, the Twins will need to do everything right from here on in if they're to overtake their rivals.

Down and Up

Mariners 3, Twins 2
Twins 6, Mariners 5
A's 3, Twins 2
Twins 12, A's 2

I missed most of the last 4 games while burying myself in research on childhood vaccinations (my daughter will be 2 months old next week) and the Democratic National Convention (mostly boring, though I really liked Bill Clinton's speech). Looks like I missed out on a whole bunch of excruciating Twins baseball!

What's most frustrating is this: thanks to tonight's blowout, the Twins actually outscored their opponents 32-29 over the last week, but went just 2-5. Couldn't they have had just one of those 12 runs tonight moved to last night, when Joe Nathan could have pitched the 9th inning instead of the reeling Jesse Crain (who has been on the mound when the winning runs scored in 3 of the 5 losses this week)? How about moving one of them over to Monday, giving Joe Nathan enough cushion to overcome Adrian Beltre's leadoff double? If you've ever wondered how the Indians could be (until very recently) so far under .500 despite having a positive run differential, this past week is your answer. What a drag to have to endure that for 5 months instead of just one week!

Thankfully, Denard Span came up with a big throw to the plate on Wednesday afternoon, or this road trip would already be a total disaster. As it is, the Twins are still running uphill at 4-5. But the A's are a terrible offensive team, and the Twins' starting pitching has been solid (2.78 ERA in 58.1 IP on the trip so far), so it shouldn't take too many runs to get a couple more wins this weekend.

One of the reasons the Twins struggled to score runs earlier in the week was the disappearance of Joe Mauer. Coming into Friday's game he was just 6-28 on the road trip. He busted out with a career-high 5 hits, knocking in 4 runs while he was at it. He's got to be productive for the offense to work. The other key is Justin Morneau, and he appears to breaking out of the slump that bewitched him for most of the month. He's hitting .443 over the last 6 games, with at least one double in each.

One very encouraging sign: despite their troubles over the past week, the Twins remain just 0.5 games behind the White Sox, who have an identical 30-36 road record. That means that, for all the time away from home the Twins have to spend the rest of the season, the White Sox will match them game for game. They also have to play the Angels - baseball's winningest road team - at home. It's been a bad week on the road for the Twins, but it's not a disaster yet.

The Break

My wife switched to a dairy-free diet on Saturday, and the baby has been quiet at night ever since. I've been staying up late anyway, supervising the baby while watching DVDs on the computer, usually, and then sleeping in so late that it's afternoon before I get up from the breakfast table. Not a recipe for productivity - luckily, I'm not working for anybody right now. I followed the Twins and their representatives over the past few days, and these are my thoughts:

Tigers 4, Twins 2

You know it's probably not your day when the ump blows a call at first base, awarding the Tigers a baserunner and charging Brian Buscher with an error that neither deserved, and then the next guy up hits his first big-league HR. Still, the Twins were, once again, in the game all day, thanks to another marvelous outing from Nick Blackburn. 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 108 pitches. He's given the Twins 6+ IP and 2 or fewer ER in 5 of his last 6 starts. What a wonderfully reliable contribution to be getting from the #4 starter.

The big positive that came out of this game was that Brian Bass, in conjunction with his other outings last week, revealed himself to be the one who should be sent down to AAA. Glad we don't have to wonder about that anymore.

The Twins didn't quite finish off the Tigers, but it was a great series for them, and a solid road trip at 3-4. They are well positioned heading into the last 2.5 months.

Justin Morneau 5 (22), Josh Hamilton 3 (35)

I was glad to see Morneau willing to jump back on the horse and try the HR derby again. I know he was concerned that it had fouled up his stroke last summer, but this year, with his power numbers down, it may just be the shot in the arm he needs to start knocking them out at his 1st-half '07 rate. And it was good to see that he acquitted himself well, out-hitting every other competitor (with one notable exception) and earning a trip to the final.

Obviously, the preposterous power display put on by Josh Hamilton was unforgettable. I hope the Twins' pitchers will find a way to keep him in the yard this weekend (Livan is only a little younger than Hamilton's BP pitcher). But I have to give Morneau a ton of credit for putting that out of his mind when it was his turn to hit first, putting up 5 dingers in what would prove to be his low round (still better than his lone round last year). Not surprisingly, Hamilton had shot his wad in the first round, and couldn't match Morneau.

I was a bit chagrined to read some of the commentary afterwards, dismissing Morneau entirely, as though his 22 HR performance was an embarrassment. I wonder if a star from Boston or NY would have been written off so quickly. Anyway, Morneau accepted his victory with grace, and was a credit to the Twins on Monday night.

AL 4, NL 3 (15 innings)

Joe Mauer, Joe Nathan, and Morneau were a credit to the Twins on Tuesday night as well. Morneau, though not a starter, wound up with 5 PAs to Mauer's 2, and went 2-4, 2B, BB, 2 R, including the game-winner in the 15th. He was likely the runner-up to JD Drew for MVP of the game.

Mauer went 1-1 with a BB before being lifted for Jason Varitek. Was that move cermonial? Varitek clearly didn't belong on the team, and was replaced by Dioner Navarro of the Rays without even taking an AB. Navarro went 1-4 with a BB and 2 K, and made a costly throwing error on a steal attempt in the 8th that enabled the NL to score their 3rd run with a SF. Here's where it's too bad Mauer was the starter - had he been brought in off the bench, he would have had some opportunities to win the game late. Of course, with his accurate arm behind the plate, the game probably would have been over in regulation anyway.

For all the talk of whether Johnathan Papelbon or Mariano Rivera should get the 9th inning, the only AL pitcher who had an unblemished line on the night was Nathan. He retired the 3 men he faced on 8 pitches, including a strikeout. Francisco Rodriguez got one out with his 8 pitches, including a walk. What a great deal the Twins have with Nathan on the team for years to come!

Moves?

The Adrian Beltre rumors persist. He is a fine defensive 3B, with awesome splits vs. LHP, and, coming from Seattle, should be available for pennies on the dollar. He would be an upgrade from Brendan Harris without a doubt.

One of the names I saw as being potentially on the block that intrigued me was Jon Rauch of the Nationals. He began the season as a set-up man, but had to take over the closer role when Chad Cordero got hurt. He's put up some very strong numbers: 2.85 ERA, 43 K/7 BB, 4 HR in 47 IP. He could be an answer for the Twins in the 8th inning. He's under contract through 2010, so he wouldn't be just a rent-a-player, though the Twins would certainly have to give up something decent to get him. I haven't heard that the Twins are specifically interested in him, but he's the sort of player they're going to need down the stretch.