Capps and Trade

On Thursday night, the Twins traded AAA C Wilson Ramos and A+ LHP Joe Testa to the Washington Nationals for CL Matt Capps and $500,000. First, the bad news:

• This isn't much of an upgrade at the Closer position. As Geek and Gleeman pointed out, Jon Rauch and Capps have performed pretty similarly over the last few seasons. Each has blown 4 saves this season, though Capps has had 5 more opportunities. We'll never know how Rauch would have done as the closer for the remainder of 2010, but I doubt it would have been particularly worse than what Capps will do.
• The Twins bought high on Capps. He's got an ERA about 3/4 of a run below his career average, and was named to the All Star team for the first time. His ERA, BB/9 and HR/9 all spiked in 2009, after which he was eventually non-tendered by the Pirates. Had the Twins been interested in him over the winter, they probably could have traded him straight up for Testa. Now, his stock may never be higher.
• The Twins sold low on Ramos. There was a ton of buzz around Ramos thanks to his strong performances in the Venezuelan Winter League, Spring Training, and his first couple of games with the Twins. However, his first half in Rochester was pretty dismal: he hit just .210/.252/.310 with 4 HR and about a 4/1 K/BB ratio before the break. But he's been hot since, hitting .388/.412/.510 in about 50 PA. Certainly not sustainable over the long run, but maybe an indication that he was finally getting comfortable at AAA and on his way to posting overall numbers that might approach league average for the season. That, from a 22-year-old with limited experience above A+ ball, might have been enough for the scouts to dream on. Waiting even just another month might have brought the Twins a significantly better return for Ramos.

Now, the good news:

• Adding Capps makes the 2010 Twins better. Putting him in the closer role creates a trickle-down effect throughout the rest of the bullpen. Rauch threw at least 70 innings in each season from 2006-2009, but this year is on pace for about 60 IP. He's appeared in just 9 games in July, totaling 8.1 IP. Moving him from the closer role will probably lead to longer and more frequent appearances for Rauch, which will be a good thing. Nick Blackburn was optioned to Rochester to make room for Capps, meaning that mop-up innings he might have been getting will probably go to Anthony Slama, and the middle innings of close games (like last Friday in Baltimore) will go to one of the more accomplished members of the 'pen, like Matt Guerrier or Jesse Crain. This move should also mean less strain on Guerrier, making him likely to maintain his performance deeper into the season. The Twins are likely to get a couple of short starts a week from here on out, and adding a good reliever like Capps means that the bullpen is comprised of 7 pretty solid guys - there are no glaring weak spots anymore. Furthermore, Blackburn will get an opportunity to work through his troubles as a starter, and will remain stretched out in the event that the Twins need an emergency start somewhere down the road.
• This gives the Twins some depth for 2011. Capps will be under team control next year. He will get a raise in arbitration, but will still be making less than market value for a closer. Rauch, Guerrier and Crain are all eligible for free agency next year, and I would be surprised if the Twins were able to retain more than one of them. We hope that Joe Nathan will be recovered from Tommy John surgery and ready to resume the closer role at the beginning of next season. If he's not, the Twins can turn to Capps, filling the other bullpen slots with serfs like Slama, Alex Burnett, Kyle Waldrop and Rob Delaney, all of whom are proving themselves to varying degrees at the upper levels. Pat Neshek will be available as well. Should Nathan bounce back like Billy Wagner, the Twins might be able to trade Capps in the spring for a return similar to what they've given up here. Speaking of which,
• The Twins didn't give up anything they were going to need in the future. If the plan is to have Joe Mauer catching more than 75% of the Twins' games for the foreseeable future, Ramos is just a backup. Should the Twins be dissatisfied with Jose Morales and/or Drew Butera, they can find a veteran to fill that role easily enough. Right-handed hitting catchers aren't that difficult to come by during the offseason. The Rockies and Blue Jays each picked up productive players for a bargain, just as the Twins did when they signed Mike Redmond years ago. Testa struggled at AA and was rather old for A+. He was projecting as a LOOGY at best, another commodity that is readily available in the free agent market. There's nothing wrong with turning something you can't use into something you can.

I don't love this deal. Selling low and buying high is a bad way to invest in the stock market, and those principles generally apply to baseball as well. I wish the Twins had gotten more for Ramos; I wish they'd paid less for Capps. However, adding Capps makes the Twins more likely to win, not because he's an awesome closer, but because he compliments the other pieces of the bullpen. It means Gardy can have a quicker hook if Scott Baker or Kevin Slowey are struggling. It makes it more likely that the 'pen will be able to keep the score close until the offense can do some damage. So, ultimately, I'm OK with it.

3 Games, 3 Catchers

Twins 9, Indians 3

Another balanced game from the Twins' offense, as every starter reached base at least once. They abused their beloved former backup C, Mike Redmond, for 3 SB. And they got a bunch of 2-out RBI hits, including a HR from Justin Morneau in his first game back from his back issues.

Kevin Slowey was the beneficiary of a big early lead, but he almost failed to hold it. He was pitching pretty well, but seemed to need 4-5 pitches in every PA. He started the 5th inning with a high-ish pitch count in the 60s, then needed well over 30 pitches to get through that inning. His defense exacerbated the problem when Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer let Redmond's drive to right-center pass between them untouched - they called each other off simultaneously, so neither one caught the ball. That turned out to be the first of 5 H in 6 AB for the Indians. Had Redmond's ball been caught and everything else proceeded as it did, Slowey would have been out of the inning with 0 R allowed and 92 pitches, likely allowing him to start the 6th inning.

The Indians defense didn't do them any favors either. The Twins' 3-run rally in the 2nd resulted from an inability to turn a routine DP off the bat of Denard Span with the bases loaded. 1B Matt LaPorta couldn't dig out a low relay throw from 2B Luis Valbuena, allowing 1 R to score and giving the Twins an extra out. After Span stole second, Orlando Hudson delivered a 2-RBI single, though Fausto Carmona had pitched well enough to put his team in the dugout with 0 R allowed.

Twins 4, Indians 5 (11 innings)

All sorts of lineup shuffling for this one. Nick Blackburn needed family leave, so Jeff Manship was brought up to make the start. He was as good as anyone could have hoped, allowing just 2 ER on 5 H and 1 BB with a career-high 6 K in 6 IP. He was at just 86 pitches, but with 2 big lefties coming up in the 7th and the Twins clinging to a 1-run lead, it wasn't unreasonable to go to the bullpen at that point. And Brian Duensing delivered a 10-pitch, 1-2-3 inning. Then it went to Matt Guerrier, who'd thrown an inning on Friday. He got 2 quick outs, then allowed consecutive 2-out H to the Indians' three best hitters, tying the game.

That put the bullpen was on the spot - they needed to be rescued by the offense. But Joe Mauer had bruised his heel late in Friday's game and was unavailable, and a backup, though en route, would not arrive in time for the game. That meant it was Drew Butera behind the plate, for better or for worse, for the duration. He went hitless yet again, and had the crucial PA of extra innings: bases loaded, 1 out, GIDP. Butera's impotence with the stick made me wish that Alexi Casilla could have PH in that situation.

Alex Burnett had already thrown 1.1 IP, but Gardy tried to stretch him through the 11th. He gave up a BB, 2B and IBB to the first 3 hitters, then left a bases loaded mess for Jesse Crain to try to clean up. He almost did it, getting a shallow pop fly and a K before Asdrubal Cabrera, one of Cleveland's best hitters, ripped a game-winning single.

Twins 8, Indians 3

The Twins desperately needed Francisco Liriano to pitch deep into this game, but it got off to a rocky start for him. He threw the ball past 1B while attempting to get Cabrera leading off. Cabrera made it all the way to 3rd, where he scored on a groundout. Liriano then gave up a hit to Shin-Soo Choo, walked Austin Kearns, allowed Choo to steal 3B, then balked him in. After that, he largely settled down, allowing 6 H, 2 BB and 9 K the rest of the way. He was over 100 pitches after 6 IP, but manned up and got through a scoreless 7th, finishing the day with 123 pitches. That's one of the things Aces have to do: save the bullpen.

Wilson Ramos arrived from Rochester to make his Major League debut, and it could hardly have gone better. He went 4-5 with a 2B - more of an offensive impact in one start than Butera has made in 4. Span, Hudson, Morneau and Delmon Young also had multi-hit games, with Young hitting his 3rd HR and drawing his 8th BB. The Twins still weren't great with RISP, but put up 8 R thanks to the sheer mass of baserunners they accumulated, setting a season-high with 20 H and adding 5 more BB.

Mauer is probably going to be out for a few more days, and I expect Ramos to get the bulk of the playing time until he's healthy. Ramos was not hitting well at Rochester and is still rather inexperienced. But he's so much more talented than Butera, at least everyone can feel like there's a chance he'll get a hit when he comes to the plate. That will help soften the temporary loss of the reigning MVP.

Notes:

• Span went 5-9 with 2 BB and a HR over the weekend, raising his OPS from .617 to .700. Nothing to worry about.
• Young went 4-9 with 3 BB and a HR, raising his OPS from .684 to .778. Also nothing to worry about.
• Kyle Gibson threw a 1-hit shutout on Thursday night, and has overcome his debut to rank 4th in the Florida State league in ERA through 5 GS. He's got a .200 BAA, a G/F of just over 5/1, and a K/BB of 4/1 with nearly 9 K/9. How many more starts before he heads for New Britain?
• There are 3 guys at Beloit who could deserve to take Gibson's spot in the rotation. Liam Hendriks, Daniel Osterbrock and Tom Stuifbergen all have ridiculous numbers so far. Since Osterbrock is the oldest and longest tenured at A-, I'd give him the first look. But I wouldn't forget about Shooter Hunt, who has shown in 7 appearances since opening night that he's put his control issues behind him. He has a 20/4 K/BB ratio in his last 13.1 IP, with a 2.03 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. At some point he should get another crack at the rotation, right?