Showing posts with label Delmon Young. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Delmon Young. Show all posts

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Delmon Young Has Arrived

A lot of people have written Delmon Young off. And I admit that between his weight, his attitude, his defense, his propensity to swing freely at anything that was heaved toward home plate, there wasn't a lot to like there. But there were concrete signs of improvement from the middle of the summer through the offseason which led me to conclude this winter that expectations for Young should be as high as ever this year.

And he has delivered.

After Wednesday's game with the White Sox in which Young went 3-4 with 2 2B, his line through 104 PA stands at .287/.337/.479. The BA is right around his career average. The OBP would essentially match the best of his career. The SLG% hasn't been seen since his September call-up in 2006. But that figure came with the help of a .317 BA. So the IsoD of .050 and IsoP of .191 that he's sporting right now are unprecedented.

Luck? Hardly. Young's HR/fly ball rate is between the highs of 2009 and lows of 2007-2008. His line drive, ground ball and fly ball rates are essentially unchanged from last year. The only difference that jumps out is that his BABIP is significantly lower than the well-established .338 he's put up for three straight seasons - lower by almost .040. So, if anything, Young has been unlucky at the plate so far.

Those who derided him for his hopeless plate discipline have nothing to complain about now. So far he's walked in 7.7% of his PA, a huge improvement over his previous best 5.6% rate in 2008. The 8 BB he's drawn so far in 2010 represent 2/3 of the total he had in all of 2009. At the same time, he's cut his strikeout rate nearly in half to 10.6% - better than Denard Span and Orlando Hudson and basically equal to Joe Mauer's 2010 mark.

How does this translate into games? Young has been swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone, and as a result is getting himself out less. He's also been less inclined to come up hacking in general, putting himself into hitters counts and forcing opposing pitchers to work. He's been using the whole field, as evidenced by yesterday's game in which he doubled into each corner and singled to CF.

And the results will very likely continue to improve. With a greatly reduced K rate, as his BABIP regresses back to his career norms, Young's BA should find itself safely over .300 by the end of the year. If he keeps up the IsoD and IsoP, that should put him in the neighborhood of a .900 OPS by season's end.

OK, so the bat's coming around. What about the defense? Thanks to his conditioning efforts over the winter, the leaner Young has greatly increased his range in LF. His UZR had been pretty brutal in 2008 & 2009, deep in negative territory. But so far in 2010 he's rating right around 0, and average, for him, is a huge improvement. He still doesn't make every catch, but he's no longer a liability out there.

Young has finally made himself into the corner OF everyone dreamed he could be when he was selected with the 1st overall pick back in 2003. He's always hit for a good average, but now he's adding gap power, good plate discipline and solid defense to the mix. He's definitely good enough to hit 7th in the Twins' lineup, and has earned the opportunity to be out there more often than not. And he looks like he's enjoying himself, which, added to everything else he's doing, makes him fun to watch. At last!

Thursday, February 18, 2010

The Breaks: Young

For much of the 2009 season, the Twins' lineup was scoring a fair number of runs despite having only 5 or 6 credible hitters in the lineup at any given time. C (Joe Mauer), CF (Denard Span), 1B (Justin Morneau), DH (Jason Kubel) and RF (Michael Cuddyer) had such tremendous offensive seasons that they were able to balance out the dearth of production the Twins were receiving from 2B (Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto), SS (Punto, Tolbert and Brendan Harris), LF (Delmon Young) and, often, 3B (Joe Crede, Harris, etc.) Bringing in Orlando Cabrera to play SS helped a bit, but didn't really pay off until the last 3 weeks of the season, when he and everyone else in the lineup got hot at the same time.

Trading for JJ Hardy should be a clear upgrade at SS, especially if he can show that his dreadful 2009 was a fluke. Adding Jim Thome represents a huge upgrade over Brian Buscher on the bench. And when they signed Orlando Hudson to upgrade 2B, the Twins appeared to assure themselves a lineup with at least 7 regulars who should be able to exceed the average offensive output for their positions.

But how much better could they be if they were above average in 8 spots? What if this is the year that Young finally puts it together?

We are well justified to view that possibility with a lot of skepticism. Though his .300/.322/.502 line after the All-Star break seems to indicate that Young was a different hitter from the one who went .266/.292/.344 in the first half, he also improved in the 2nd half of '08, only to fall flat last spring. His K% and BB% were both headed in the right direction from 2007-2008, but then went drastically backward last year. Is he really making progress, or did he just get lucky last summer?

To answer that, I first want to compare Young's splits in his first 2 seasons with the Twins. In 2008, the improvement from 1st half to 2nd half was fairly incremental: .286/.330/.386 to .297/.345/.432. The improvement in OBP came largely from a better BA and more than his share of HBP. The increase in IsoP from .100 to .135 came from a surge in HR (7 in 236 2nd half AB vs. just 3 in 339 1st half AB). That's basically the source of the perceived improvement over the course of 2008. He continued to hit 2B at about the same rate, but didn't have any 3B after the Break. And his K% and BB% remained essentially unchanged at about 18% and 6% respectively in each half. So there was no change in his approach - he just had a few more fly balls carry over the fence.

The 2 halves of 2009 are much more distinct. Young's lousy .636 1st half OPS included just 9 XBH and 6 BB in about 200 PA. His career-worst 23.3% K rate was even more prevalent in the early-going: He struck out 59 times before the All-Star Break, about 30% of his PA. In the 2nd half, though he was no more likely to take a walk, he cut his K rate nearly in half, while more than doubling his XBH.

To what should we attribute this change in results? The 1st half was well beneath anything Young had ever done before. He got off to a slow start in April, hitting .241/.276/.315 over his first 16 games. But a strong first week of May quickly brought his season line up to .303/.349/.355 - still just 2 XBH and a 20/4 K/BB ratio, but far from disastrous from someone in the bottom 3rd of the order. But around that time, Young's mother took gravely ill, eventually passing away. He left the team for more than a week to be with his family. In the 2 games before and 10 games after his bereavement leave, he went 5 for 44 with 0 BB or XBH (.114/.114/.114) and 23 K. In 44 AB.

I can only imagine what it must feel like for a 23-year-old to lose his mother. I'm 34, and my mother is still going strong. What a profound loss it will be when she passes some day. For Young, it was clearly psychologically shattering. Being away from the game for more than a week surely wreaked havoc with his timing, but he obviously wasn't all there mentally during that stretch of games.

He bottomed out at .231/.272/.265 on June 3rd. From that point on, he hit .284/.307/.471. Throw out the 44 AB around the bereavement, and his season line would have been .305/.331/.464, with an 18.5% K rate, good for a 102 OPS+. That's basically a league-average hitter. His 1st half split would have been .311/.342/.412, not terribly far from where he was in the 2nd half of 2008.

The bereavement leave can help explain why his 1st half was so bad last year. But why was his 2nd half so good? He did what young players trying to establish themselves as major leaguers have to do - he made some adjustments. This tremendous analysis from Parker at Over the Baggy shows that Young's improved success in the 2nd half was the result of adjustments he made to his swing mechanics. He shortened his stride, improved his balance at the plate, cut wasteful hitches out of his swing and synched his hips with his hands. The result was harder contact and more fly balls, and his IsoP more than doubled from .078 to .202.

So what should we expect from Young in 2010? As Parker said, there's no guarantee that the improvements he's made to his swing will stick, so I'll be watching him closely as he hits this spring. If he's still got the same mechanics he had at the end of last season, we should probably look for another .200 IsoP. He's reportedly lost about 30 lbs, which could signify that he's going to return to being a net positive base stealer, as he was for his career before 2009, and put last season's 2/7 effort far behind him. A lighter frame and improved speed while avoiding the teflon skies of the Metrodome might lead to some improvement in his defense, too.

PECOTA projects Young to hit .296/.335/.439 in 549 PA with 4 net SB and average defense in LF, totaling about 1.2 WARP. By itself, that's a pretty generous improvement upon his first 3 full MLB seasons. But PECOTA doesn't know that Young's mother died last May, nor does it know that he made important adjustments to his swing over the course of the season. And consider this: Young's BABIP has been a remarkably consistent .338 in each the last 3 seasons, but it was only .317 after the All-Star Break last year.

Over 549 PA, given his post-All-Star IsoP, a .338 BABIP, and his typical SF and HBP numbers (6 and 5, respectively), even if he reverts to his rookie-year K% (19.7%) and makes no progress in his BB rate from 2009 (2.9%), we can expect Young to hit something like .314/.337/.516 with 23 HR. That OPS wouldn't be too far short of what Michael Cuddyer did in 2006, a season worth 3.1 WARP. Give Young his 2nd half K rate of 15.5% and his 2008 BB rate of 5.6% and we're looking at .339/.379/.541. That's basically what Jason Bay did last year, a season worth 4.7 WARP. Anything within that range from Young would give the Twins 8 above average hitters in their lineup - a lineup that can match up with just about any other team.

As far as I'm concerned, Young has everything he needs to make 2010 a breakout season. But it's going to take a concerted effort on his part to put it all together. He should be working very hard in Fort Myers with Joe Vavra on sustaining his swing, with Paul Molitor on improving his baserunning, with Jerry White on his OF defense, and with Joe Mauer, Denard Span and Jim Thome about being more selective at the plate. As a 24-year-old, former #1 overall pick beginning his 4th full MLB season, he needs to take a big step toward meeting the lofty expectations that have followed him. The tools have always been there. It's time for him to build something with them.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Go-Go Gone

The general state of business I've found myself in over the last few weeks has made it difficult to complete my ambitious Offseason Blueprint entry, wherein I spell out every move I'd make as Twins GM from here to Spring Training. Bill Smith is quickly making such a gesture obsolete. He outrighted Brian Buscher earlier this week, and yesterday sent CF Carlos Gomez to the Brewers for SS JJ Hardy, straight up.

Had I managed to post my Blueprint entry by now, you'd have seen that I wanted the Twins to trade for Hardy. He is a highly-rated defender at SS, first of all, and defense is something I think the Twins should be emphasizing as they build their team for 2010. He is also one of the better power threats from that position, averaging 30 2B and 25 HR between 2007-2008. He had a terrible season last year, batting just .229/.302/.357 with 11 HR in 115 games before being sent down to AAA in order to clear space for defensive whiz-kid Alcides Escobar. (Even that isn't terribly worse than the .263/.309/.374 with 10 HR that all Twins SS produced in 2009.) That move delayed Hardy's eligibility for free agency until after 2011, so the Twins will control him for the next 2 seasons, and he's just entering his peak. Even though his average and slugging plummeted, Hardy's walk rate improved for the 3rd straight year. If his hitting rebounds, and his defense remains consistent, the Twins will have one of the best SS in the AL.

In exchange, they part with Gomez. I always preferred Denard Span, but Gomez was without peer as a defender in CF and saved the Twins a ton of runs with his spectacular range. However, his skills at the plate are severely lacking, and he probably should have spent at least one of the last 2 years at Rochester. Maybe it would have made sense to send him there this season - his talent certainly is worth developing. In any case, his role with the Twins turned into nothing more than legs for Jason Kubel or a defensive upgrade over Delmon Young. Jason Pridie is perfectly capable of providing that for the Twins. Turning a bench OF into an everday SS is a pretty good trade for the Twins, just as turning a bench SS into an everyday CF is good for the Brewers.

One obvious implication of this move is that Delmon Young is going to be in the lineup everyday, at least to start the season. That means he has to get a lot better, in just about every facet of his game. He showed a nice uptick in power, particularly after the All-Star break, but his BB rate went backward, he suddenly wasn't an effective base stealer, and his defense in LF remained very poor. But he's just 24, so there's still time.

I was going to suggest that the Twins trade Brian Duensing and a role-player for Hardy. I like this deal - well done, Bill Smith. And, in case I don't get it posted in the next couple of days, let me go on record as saying the Twins should decline Michael Cuddyer's option. Details to come...

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Signs of Life

When they sank back to a season-low 6 games under .500 on Monday, I realized that the only thing that could save the 2009 Twins was a winning streak. The prospects of that seemed grim when they fell behind 5-0 after 3 innings on the road against the wild card contending Rangers. But then the Twins' offense, which has been so prolific in August, rose up in support of the flailing pitching staff, scoring 4 runs in the 6th to tie the game, then 3 more in the 7th to win it. This rally was magical not just because it included 4 RBI and 6 TB worth of heroics from Delmon Young, but because it happened without the help of Justin Morneau, who has missed most of the week with an inner ear infection, and Jason Kubel, who left the game after fouling a pitch off his knee in his first AB. For those reasons, I thought that rally could prove to be a turning point for the Twins.

We won't know for another 6 weeks whether that will be the case, but the Twins are sitting in about the best spot we could have hoped following a 7-game road trip. Their 5-2 record nullifies three of their recent series losses, and the sweep of the Royals brings their record vs. the worst team in the AL to a respectable 4-2 this month. Most importantly, they've been able to gain ground on the Tigers and White Sox, perhaps finding themselves as few as 4.5 games back in the standings by the end of the day.

The pitching hasn't particularly improved, so I can't attribute this 5-1 stretch to that. The Royals bumbling defense certainly helped. But mostly, I'm going to credit the improved play of the bottom of the lineup. With Morneau out, Cuddyer has had to play first base, meaning Carlos Gomez and Young have been in the lineup for the last 6 games. Gomez has hit .348 with 5 R, Young has slugged .545 with 10 RBI over the last 8 games, and Alexi Casilla, finally given some playing time at the expense of Nick Punto, went 5 for 11 with 4 R over the weekend in KC. Denard Span, Joe Mauer and Michael Cuddyer have kept on producing, so to have some power and speed reaching at the bottom of the order makes this a pretty complete lineup, one that can overcome some severe shortfalls from the pitchers.

Ultimately, the pitchers will have to step up to at least average in order for the Twins to make a serious run. To that end, it was comforting to see solid performances from Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing and Carl Pavano this weekend. Yes, they were just facing the Royals' terrible lineup, but I'll take good starting pitching anywhere I can get it this month. After next week, I look forward to an onslaught of arms from Rochester coming up to bolster the big league bullpen.

The Twins have a big 9-game home stand coming up. They've got to go at least 6-3, including winning the series vs. the White Sox. This is the time for the Dome field advantage to materialize one last time.

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

I Wish They All Could Be Interleague Games

With Sunday's win over St. Louis, the Twins completed their interleague schedule with a record of 12-6. It's the 7th time in Gardy's 8 seasons as manager that the Twins have had a winning record vs. the NL.

Part of that success can be attributed to the Twins playing a National League style of baseball, not relying on slugging to provide their offense as so many AL teams do. That's been part of the story in previous years, but not so much in 2009, as the Twins currently sit 10th in MLB in SLG% and 12th in HR.

Another part was that the Twins' weakness at DH meant that their offense wasn't drastically hurt when they went to NL parks. Typically, the Twins have employed a bench player at DH, unlike the many AL teams that use professional hitters who are seriously liabilities if they have to play in the field. So subtracting the DH from the lineup didn't hurt the Twins very much. But that is also not the case this year, as Jason Kubel is currently 2nd among regular DHs in OPS. Thankfully, he's at least as competent a LF as Delmon Young, so keeping his bat in the lineup didn't have a corresponding debit on the defensive side of the ledger.

Were they successful because they were playing weak competition? On the whole, the NL is weaker than the AL, but because the Twins had to play half of their schedule against the top 2 teams in the NL Central, the aggregate winning percentage of their interleague opponents came to .507. Could we expect a team that is 6 games under .500 vs. AL opponents to go sweeping through above average NL competition? In particular, could we expect a team that is 12 games under .500 vs. AL opponents on the road to go 6-3 in NL ballparks?

For me, the difference was that in the NL parks, the Twins were able to hide their weaknesses better. In the NL, each team fields a lineup of 8 (hopefully) competent hitters + the starting pitcher. In the AL, you get to use 9 good hitters. The Twins have 7: Denard Span, Brendan Harris, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Kubel, Michael Cuddyer and Joe Crede. And that's just when everybody's healthy, when Mauer is able to play consecutive days, etc. Against AL opponents, the Twins often have to face a lineup with 2 better players than they can field; in the NL, it's just one.

Denard Span was out for 5 of the Twins' 9 interleague road games, but he wasn't missed. That's because Carlos Gomez stepped up in his stead, going 7 for 16 with 5 R in the 4 games he started. Mauer only had to sit out one of those games; the Twins lost. Crede had to sit out one of those games; the Twins lost. Cuddyer had to sit out 2; the Twins lost one and won the other despite scoring only 2 R.

The best thing about the Twins playing in NL parks is that they don't have to put Delmon Young in the lineup. Of Twins hitters who have accumulated at least 50 PA this season, Young ranks dead last in WARP at -0.9. He doesn't just not help, he hurts. The 7 players I mentioned earlier are 1-7 in WARP, of course, and Gomez is 8th, at 0.7, thanks to his superhuman range in CF. It should be clear, then, that the best lineup the Twins can put on the field does not include Young, both in terms of offensive and defensive contributions.

NL rules enabled the Twins to do without their worst player this past week. Thanks to that, improved play from Gomez and Nick Punto, and the easier task the Twins' pitchers had facing other pitchers instead of DHs, turned the Twins from a bad road team into a good one. If only it were easier for Gardy to avoid his worst player in the AL

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Motivation?

Ron Gardenhire let it slip earlier this week that, in his mind, Delmon Young is currently 4th on the Twins' OF depth chart behind Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span and Carlos Gomez. That seems strange to me considering that Young outhit Gomez by a healthy margin in 2008, though Gomez certainly has the advantage defensively by a long ways. It's also been rumored that the Twins are listening to trade offers for Young. Since his sophomore season didn't show a huge improvement over his rookie year, his stock is probably relatively low right now - not the best time for a trade. It doesn't make sense to me that the Twins would be so quick to turn around a guy who they paid a pretty high price for just last year - especially one who showed some significant improvement over the course of the season.

I started wondering if maybe there wasn't some coaching psychology going on here. Consider Young's history: #1 overall draft pick, reached the Majors a couple weeks before his 21st birthday, started all but 1 game in his first 1.5 seasons. He had such a sense of entitlement that he didn't even think he had to respect the umpires. Coming to a new team as the centerpiece of a big 6-player trade, then starting each of the first 52 games, he might have felt that he was too important to keep out of the lineup, even though he was only hitting .258/.319/.328 with 6 doubles, 4 triples and 0 HR.

But after a listless 0 for 6 during the first game of a 3-game set with the Royals, capped by a defensive miscue that turned a bloop double into a game-tying inside-the-park HR, Gardy decided Young could use a rest. The finale of that series was the first game Young didn't start since September of '06. A simple gesture - after all, everybody needs a break (even those, like Morneau, who never get one), but a significant one, too. It sent Young the message that, no matter how important everybody says he is, he's got to perform on the field if he wants to play.

From that point to the end of the season, Young hit .306/.347/.443 with 22 doubles and 10 HR. His only poor stretch came the last 2 weeks of August, after he'd injured his ankle on August 18th. Getting rest when he needed it probably helped to keep him fresh, but it also was a constant reminder that he'd better produce if wanted to play.

Why not sustain that reminder into the off-season? Rather than let Young feel confident that his substantial hitting advantage over Gomez is enough to guarantee him a starting spot next year, why not motivate him to improve the parts of his game where Gomez has the edge, namely defense and baserunning? Maybe that would make him work harder in the off-season, coming to spring training in shape, focused and ready to get better.

Check out this report from Lavelle. He seems to be thinking what I'm thinking. Apparently Young is working out hard this off-season, losing weight and getting stronger. If I'm right about the message the Twins were trying to send, it sounds like Young has received it. I wouldn't give up on him just yet.

Monday, September 29, 2008

In the Clubhouse

Twins 6, Royals 0
Magic Number: 1


First of all, thank you to Scott Baker for giving the Twins the 2nd best game of his career on a day when they had to win. Obviously, the CG vs. the Royals last year when he took a perfect game into the 9th was better. But today, he allowed just 4 singles in 7 IP and set a new career high with 9 K. Before the season began, I said Baker would be the Twins' #1 starter. With his performances on this home stand (14 IP, 1 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 13 K) he proved that he's an ace. Lots of teams have good pitchers, but an ace is someone who is good when his team has to have a win. We saw a couple this weekend: Johan Santana (3 H CG shutout, 9 K on 3 days' rest) and CC Sabathia (4 H CG shutout, 7 K on 3 days' rest). I hope Baker will get a chance to cement his ace status in the playoffs.

Baker might have been able to complete the game, had Gardy wanted to take him out to 120 or so pitches like Sabathia and Santana threw. The Mets and Brewers have very dicey bullpens, so you'd better leave the ace in there. The Twins can rely on Joe Nathan, of course, but the 8th has been a nightmare since Pat Neshek went down - until Jose Mijares showed up, that is. He allowed just 1 ER in 9 September innings (that coming when Matt Guerrier was on the mound) on 3 H (one a "double" that Delmon Young lost in the ceiling). He and Nathan combined with Baker to hold the Royals to a score even the Twins' sputtering offense could overcome.

I was afraid we were asking for a repeat of Saturday's defeat when the Twins left 7 men on base over the first 3 innings, including 5 in scoring position. They could only muster 2 R from 4 BB, 2 HBP and 2 E, thanks mostly to the fact that they only came up with 2 H. In the 7th, the Twins loaded the bases again, and finally got an RBI hit from Young to give themselves some breathing room. Joe Mauer delivered a 2-run triple in the 8th to put the game away.

Mauer finished the day 2-5, giving him a .330 BA for the season. I guess his batting title isn't official until it's determined if the Twins will play on Tuesday - stats from that game count towards the regular season (although if Morneau were to come up with 2 RBi in game #163, Josh Hamilton would have a right to be ticked). But according to my math, he should have enough even if he goes 0-5.

Now the Twins are like a golfer who has finished his round with a 1-stroke lead. He chills out in the clubhouse while his opponent heads to the 18th tee needing a birdie to force a playoff. With the exception of Mark Buehrle's performance on Sunday, the White Sox have been awful this week starting on short rest. Today, it's Gavin Floyd's turn. Jim Leyland will surely be pumped up to ruin the season for the Sox, but will his team of underachievers follow his lead? Freddie Garcia will start for the Tigers having made 2 starts this season - 1 good, 1 bad. Can he beat his former team? Can he stay in the game long enough to protect his combustible bullpen? Do the Sox have one more crappy game in them?

I guess I'll be watching. Go Tigers.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

One Down

Twins 9, White Sox 3

Twins fans couldn't have asked for much more than they got last night.

Scott Baker delivered a strong start, allowing just 5 singles and a walk in 7 IP. It's crucial in this series that the Twins' starters go deep into the game and keep the ball in the yard, and Baker achieved both. He'll need to be just as good in his final start on Sunday vs. KC.

I thought it was funny how Chicago's run in the 2nd was a Twins kind of rally: 2 singles, aggressive baserunning puts a man on 3rd with no out, scores when the next guy puts the ball in play (GIDP by Ken Griffey, Jr.). Then the Twins' runs in the bottom half were White Sox kind of runs: leadoff man walks, next man up hits a homer.

The Twins accomplished something last night they've rarely managed to do lately - they outslugged their opponent. 2 doubles, and triple and 3 HR was like a week's worth of XBH on the just-finished road trip. It would be great if they could keep it up for the rest of the home stand.

Jason Kubel led the way, going 3-4 with 2 HR and a triple. (If only I hadn't been eliminated in the first round of my fantasy playoffs!). Delmon Young followed him by going 3-3 with a double, HR and BB. The Twins got nothing from Denard Span and Alexi Casilla at the top of the lineup, and scored 9 runs anyway. Span & Casilla will need to get on base a lot the rest of the way.

Matt Guerrier was brought in to mop up the 9th inning, and issued a 2-out walk followed by a 2-run HR. After an August in which he compiled a 10.13 ERA and 2.06 WHIP with 3 HR in 10.2 IP, he's allowed a 9.82 ERA and 2.59 WHIP with 3 HR in 7.1 IP in September. If the Twins make it to October, I wouldn't even put him on the playoff roster. He's absolutely toast.

As heartening as this victory was, we've seen it before recently. It was every other game of the disappointing split with the A's. It was the first 2 games of the Royals and Orioles series. It's critical that the Twins win this series, obviously, but they won't really get out of the hole they've put themselves in unless they sweep. The situation is like that of a team that loses the first 2 games of a playoff series. When you come home, you need to win 2 to stay alive, but you don't want to end the series having to win the last 2 on the road either. So we're back to square one tonight, with a tough matchup against Mark Buehrle. Keep it up.

Friday, August 22, 2008

Big Night at the Big A

Twins 9, Angels 0

I had a bad feeling about this one early. The Angels kept giving the Twins gifts, and the Twins kept rudely refusing them:

1st inning: Denard Span led off the game with an infield hit when Angels pitcher Joe Saunders failed to cover first base on a grounder to first. Span moved to second when catcher Jeff Mathis failed to catch a low pitch on which Alexi Casilla bluffed a bunt; it hit Mathis in the foot and rolled away for a wild pitch. RISP, 0 out. Casilla failed to advance Span to 3rd, where he easily would have scored on Joe Mauer's deep fly ball to left. Justin Morneau once again couldn't get the ball out of the infield.

2nd inning: Randy Ruiz reached on an error by shortstop Eric Aybar to lead off the inning. The next three batters flied out, and Ruiz never left first base.

3rd inning: Carlos Gomez led off with a single to right. While stealing second, Mathis airmailed his throw into CF, allowing Gomez to move to 3rd. Runner on 3rd, nobody out, top of the order coming up. Except Gomez overslid the bag and was tagged out, so there was no one to score on Span's subsequent grounder to second.

4th inning: Joe Mauer led off with a HBP. Morneau and Ruiz couldn't advance him. But then, Delmon Young worked himself ahead 2-0 and mashed a low fastball over the high wall in right-center field for a 2-run HR.

Things started to go the Twins' way pretty quickly after that, although they still had a gift to give back to the Angels: after Adam Everett and Gomez started the 5th with a single and double to put runners at second and third, Span lined an RBI single to left. Gomez stopped at third, the throw to the plate was cut off, and Span got himself caught rounding first base too far and was run down for the first out. That made Joe Mauer's sizzling liner to right the 3rd out of the inning instead of the second, which would have brought Gomez home with a SF.

A 3-0 lead is hardly comfortable, especially on the road or with the way Perkins has allowed runs in the 6th/7th inning in some recent starts. So it was great to see the Twins break it open in the 6th. With 1 out, Ruiz singled, Young boomed an RBI double over the head of Garrett Anderson in LF, and Nick Punto grounded an IF single to deep short, chasing Saunders (nice read on that grounder by Young, who advanced to 3rd on the play). Everett greeted reliever Shane Loux with an RBI fielder's choice (thanks to some big-time hustle from Punto, who beat the throw to 2nd). After Gomez had one of his better looking strikeouts of the year (7 pitches, and he fouled off some tough ones, almost checked in time on strike 3), Span put the game out of reach with a 3-run HR over the high wall in RF.

While all this was going on, Glen Perkins was his typical, effective self for 5-6 innings. He allowed only 2 H and 2 BB through the first 5 IP. It was the 8th time in his last 10 starts that Perkins allowed 1 or fewer runs in the first 5 IP. It's the 3rd time through the order that can do him in. But, tonight, Perkins never let up. He scattered 3 singles over his final 3 innings, finishing the night with 8 IP, 0 R, 5 H, 2 BB, 3 K. For the month of August, he's allowed 9 ER on 29 H and 6 BB in 28.1 IP for a 2.86 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. And 8 of those ER have come in 2 bad innings and 4 HR vs. the Mariners. He'll get another chance against them next week.

Since completing that shaky Seattle sweep last weekend, the Twins have gone 4-1. The pitching staff has allowed 5 ER in 48 IP over those 5 games. The starters have completed 7 IP in 4 of the 5. The bullpen hasn't allowed a run in 12 IP. This last trip through the rotation has lowered the Twins' team ERA for the month of August to 3.33, best in the league. No wonder they're 14-6 so far this month.

The defense has come together with 2 errorless games to begin the road trip. Casilla has been disappointing at the plate so far, but I love his glove out there at second base.

I've talked a lot about how important it is to catch teams at the right time. As well as the Twins are playing right now, especially pitching-wise, the Angels are definitely in a slump. Two weeks ago, I doubt the Twins could have gotten away with the sort of blunders they made in the early innings. But now, the Angels are making fielding mistakes, taking bad ABs, and making life as easy on the Twins as it can be (considering the Halos are still a first-place team playing at home). May their funk continue for 2 more games.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Under Control

Twins 4, Yankees 0
Yankees 9, Twins 6 (12 innings)
Twins 4, Yankees 2


Just like in KC, the Twins came just 1 run short of a series sweep. Winning series should be enough to keep them in the running with the White Sox, but a sweep here and there could help them pull away. Plus, it would have been nice to pay the Yanks back for the sweep they dealt the Twins a couple weeks ago. Still, with as tough a time as the Twins have had with the Yankees over the last several years, it's nice to see them at least hold their own at home: 4-3, and all three losses were by 1 run or in extra innings. That's progress...

Clearly, the Twins were facing the Yankees at the right time. All those bottom-of-the-order guys who were racking up hits in NY were back to their typical selves - Robinson Cano, Ivan Rodriguez, Richie Sexson, Wilson Betemit, Jose Molina and Melky Cabrera combined to go 6 for 36 with 5 BB out of the 6-9 slots. But give credit to Glen Perkins - he held the 1-5 hitters (Derek Jeter, A-Rod and Xavier Nady among them) to 3-17 by giving them an unpredictable mix of fastballs and changeups. Kevin Slowey held the top 5 of the order (including Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi) to 2 hits and 1 BB, using his typical pinpoint control to paint the corners and keep the ball away from the middle of their bats.

Nick Blackburn usually has very good control, but not so on Tuesday. It looked to me like one of those games in which the pitcher's stuff is breaking so much that he can't really locate it. The result was an unusually high number of strikeouts early on (5 in 4.2 IP), but also an unusually high number of walks (3). And the Yankees made him pay for it: 2 of the 3 men Blackburn walked came around to score. The 2-out double he allowed to Nady was a pretty good pitch - knee-high on the outside black - yet Nady pulled it with authority into the left-center field gap. Gotta give credit to the hitter on that one. I guess Carlos Gomez overthrew cutoff man Adam Everett, but Brian Buscher was right behind him to relay the ball to the plate. A good throw would have easily nailed Giambi, but Buscher's throw short-hopped Mike Redmond, allowing a crucial extra run to score.

The bullpen, needing to throw (as it turned out) 7.1 innings, did reasonably well until the 12th. Boof Bonser, as usual, allowed a run - he let the first 2 batters reach in the 6th and 7th innings (I'm amazed he got away with it in the 6th). Craig Breslow threw 1 pitch (I wonder if Gardy wished he'd kept him available once extra innings came along). When it came to the 12th inning, it was down to another inning of Matt Guerrier vs. the heart of the Yankees' lineup, or Brian Bass, so I can't blame Gardy for sticking with Guerrier. Still, that makes 12 runs allowed in Guerrier's last 8 appearances. I hope the rest of the pitching staff can step up and give him a break.

Great job in this series by Joe Nathan and Dennys Reyes. Nathan pitched in all 3 games, accumulating 3.1 IP, 2 saves, and allowing just a BB while striking out 6. Reyes struck out 4 of the 5 men he faced, and his wild pitch that allowed a run to score on Wednesday could have easily been blocked by Joe Mauer. I'm starting to feel good about Reyes pitching (to lefties) in tight spots late in games.

As Justin Morneau's average has dwindled from a peak of .325 down to .303, it's become apparent that he's having yet another slow August. His July was so preposterously awesome that this month had to come down somewhat, but right now his OPS is less than half of what it was last month. You can see it when he fouls off a pitch up on the inner half - the pitches he was drilling only a couple of weeks ago. And he's not the only one - Nick Punto, Joe Mauer and Brian Buscher are all way down from their July productivity.

I would have put Delmon Young in that category before this series, but he's broken out over the last 2 games, going 5 for 9 with a double, 2 HR and 6 RBI. That effort helped to lift his August line to .263/.333/.526 with 3 HR, 9 RBI and a 2/4 K/BB ratio. His dramatic, game-tying HR off Mariano Rivera helped turn a game that looked lost into one that the Twins had every opportunity to win. Can he carry the team until Morneau snaps out of it?

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Range Factor

Twins 7, Tigers 0

Nick Blackburn bounced back strongly from his worst start of the season, throwing 7 shutout innings in the rubber game of the Twins' series with Detroit. He allowed just 3 H and 1 BB while striking out 4. He never looked intimidated at all by the hot-hitting lineup he was facing. If he can double up on his first half numbers over the rest of the season, he's got a good chance of finishing the year with an ERA under 4.00, a winning record, and close to 200 IP. That would garner him quite a bit of ROY consideration, something few of us would have anticipated going into the season.

I want to point out the results of this last trip through the Twins' rotation:

Livan Hernandez: 7 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 5 K
Kevin Slowey: 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 8 K
Glen Perkins: 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 7 K
Scott Baker: 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 5 K
Blackburn: 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K

Livan is clearly the weak link. On Friday, he faces a Cleveland Indians lineup that has produced just 25 runs in the last 7 games (about 3.6 runs/game). If Livan can't hold them down, he can't be expected to contain any AL team. The other thing you should notice about the last trip through the rotation is that everybody pitched at least 6 innings. Definitely no longer a need for 7 men in the bullpen.

Blackburn was aided by a lineup which featured vastly greater range than that of the one that took the field behind him last Friday. Denard Span covers a lot more ground in RF than Michael Cuddyer, and during the game he was able to cut off 2 balls headed for the gap, saving at least one run for Blackburn and one for Jesse Crain, who allowed one honest hit and one cheap one (Placido Polanco's high chopper off the plate) in his 1 IP. Span had another pretty good game, doubling for the 3rd straight day and scoring 2 R while hitting 2 balls very sharply off LHP Casey Fossum. But he earns one demerit for failing to get his attempted sacrifice bunt far enough away from the catcher in the 3rd, and a second demerit for going from 2nd to 3rd on a grounder to his right with no one out in the 6th. He got away with it in each case (this time), but the base-running play is something I hope we never see from him again.

Carlos Gomez is having one of his high-functioning periods. He's like a slot machine that pays out just enough to keep you dropping quarters in. He reached base 3 more times in the game, finishing the series 7 for 13 with 2 2B, 2 BB and 2 K and scoring a run in each game. Both of his doubles were grounders right over the bag at 3rd, and he had a couple of bunt hits and IF hits as well, so I don't know that he's made much of an adjustment in his game - things just worked out very well for him in the series. It would be great to see him keep it up. Leading off the game, he also demonstrated the only time it is acceptable to dive into first base: when someone is trying to tag you rather than beat you to the bag. Otherwise, it is always better to run through the bag, something Nick Punto reminded us that he will never learn on his IF hit Tuesday night.

Punto saved Blackburn a run when he made a spectacular diving stop and glove-hand shovel to a sprawling Alexi Casilla for a force out at second base to end the 3rd inning. One has to wonder if such a sensational play had some influence on the 5-run inning that followed in the bottom half. It's certainly not a ball that Brendan Harris would have been able to reach. As long as Punto produces even marginally at the plate, I think he should be starting every game at SS - his range superiority over Harris is that important.

Delmon Young also had an encouraging series, going 4-11 with a BB and 2 2B. All three of his hits on Wednesday were balls he got out in front of the plate and pulled with authority. If he can stay balanced enough to still recognize and reach off-speed pitches, this approach will serve him and the Twins very well in the 2nd half.

I have an All-Star post coming later today. After that - we'll see. My wife is in labor, so things are about to change drastically around here later today (I'm only writing this because I'm too excited to sleep!). I hope I don't go the way of Batgirl. I don't think I will - she's so much more creative than me, I think my entries must take a fraction of the time to compose. I'll try to at least comment on each series as we go forward.

Sunday, June 29, 2008

I Wish They All Could Be Interleague Games

Twins 5, Brewers 0

That's a song by the Beach Boys, right?

I can't remember the last time the Twins had any trouble in Interleague Play. Generally, they finish up at least a few games over .500. This year, as in 2006, they wound up with the Majors' best interleague record at 14-4. According to Blyleven's California math, that makes the team 2 games under .500 vs. the AL. Since that's who they'll be playing from here on out, they'd better do something about that.

Today's game was a pleasure to watch on so many levels, but I have to start with Kevin Slowey. In his last start, he was just as good, but he had trouble finishing guys off, allowing a lot of foul balls that lengthened ABs and got him over 90 pitches in just 6 IP. Today, his stuff and location was just a bit better, and those fouls turned into harmless fly balls and strikeouts. He did a great job of moving his fastball around and hitting his spots, only using his secondary pitches about 25% of the time. This was his 2nd career CG, and first career shutout. It leaves him with a string of 16 consecutive scoreless innings. Over his last 4 outings, he's thrown 29 IP, 19 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 24 K for a 0.93 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. He's quickly finding himself at the big-league level, and should be a steady performer for the remainder of the season.

Everybody in the lineup got at least 1 H today, except for Brendan Harris, who managed to get himself called out looking at three straight pitches in the same spot on the outside corner in the 3rd. When is he going to start trying to protect that part of the zone?

Ben Sheets looked awesome early. Thanks to a couple of double plays, he faced the minimum through the first 3.2 IP, throwing 43 pitches to that point with 5 K. When Alexi Casilla flailed at his curveball for strike 3, it was Sheets' 5th K in a span of 7 hitters. But the next 3 hitters changed the game with their superior patience at the plate. With Cuddyer heading to the DL, Jason Kubel moved up to the #5 spot, putting the Twins' 3 most disciplined hitters in a row. After quickly falling behind 0-2, Joe Mauer worked sheets to 2-2 before getting a curveball a little up that he could pull into the RF corner for a 2-out 2B. Justin Morneau followed with a 5-pitch walk. Kubel also hung in there after an 0-2 start, battling to 2-2 before getting a curveball up that he could serve into LF for an RBI single. Those 3 ABs cost Sheets 20 pitches, getting him off the CG track he'd been on early.

Brian Buscher led off the 5th with a hit similar to Kubel's, and scored 2 outs later when Carlos Gomez grounded one just inside the bag at 3rd for an RBI 3B. It was only Gomez' 2nd XBH in the past 18 games, so he was overdue for one to find a gap. In the 6th, after Kubel walked, Delmon Young pounced on a hanging curveball for his 2nd HR of the season. It was great to see him open up and pull a ball like that. Finally, it was nice to see Mike Lamb get a hit in the 7th - it was his first start since June 13. He came around to score when Brewers RF Corey Hart failed to hold on after diving for Casilla's drive in the gap; it fell for a 2B.

With their stupendous interleague run over, the Twins must now turn their attention to a difficult stretch of games before the All-Star break. They finish up this home stand with 3 games each vs. Detroit and Cleveland, then travel to Boston for 3 and Detroit for 4. The Tigers are charging up behind the Twins, so these head-to-head games will be an important test to see if the Twins can keep a division power in their rear-view mirror.

Denard Span will join the team in place of Cuddyer beginning tomorrow. I think this is long overdue. He should be given the opportunity to start in CF tomorrow night vs. RHP Armando Galarraga - Gomez hasn't had a day off in a while anyway. I'd like to see Span get every opportunity to prove that he belongs in the leadoff spot for the Twins, as Buscher has been able to do at 3B. This is the first step in upgrading the team for the 2nd half.

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Yankess Go Home

Yankees 6, Twins 5
Yankees 7, Twins 6 (12 Innings)
Twins 5, Yankees 1
Twins 6, Yankees 5


I guess we shouldn't be surprised that two approximately .500 teams split a 4-game series. But as each Yankee came to the plate for the first time on Friday night, and the broadcasters reported that they all had .320 career BAs vs. the Twins, it accentuated what an accomplishment it is for the Twins to not lose a series to the Yanks, even if it was at home. The Twins performed quite well, overall, and had Nick Punto fielded that grounder in the 3rd inning on Saturday, it might have been a 3-1 series win for the Twins.

Glen Perkins simply didn't have it on Friday night. He couldn't locate his pitches, and not in the safe, "Oh well, I walked him" way, but in the "I fell behind and then threw a strike that was up and over the plate, so I gave up 5 ER in 4 IP with a 3.00 WHIP" way. This does not concern me. He was so good in his first 4 starts, anybody can have one bad one, especially a young starter like Perkins. If he keeps throwing good games 80% of the time, I can't complain.

Boof Bonser wasn't awful in his last start. Had his defense been perfect, he might have had an opportunity to finish the 6th inning and get a quality start. However, with 3 BB and only 2 K in 5+ IP, it certainly wasn't enough to stave off his demotion. Hopefully he'll be able to let it go a little more from the 'pen, and his K/9 totals can work their way up.

The biggest surprise of Blackburn's start was the 3 BB - goes to show what a patient team the Yanks can be. Still, he looked well on his way to another quality start before he was hit in the nose by a line drive. Looks like he'll be OK for Friday in Chicago.

On Monday, the Twins won once again in spite of Livan Hernandez. He gave up double-digit hits again in 6+ IP, and his season ERA is fast-approaching 5.00. If Francisco Liriano continues to perform well in AAA, it should become apparent very soon that the Twins will be better off with him in the rotation than Livan.

The bullpen performed brilliantly under considerable duress. In 19.2 IP (almost 5 IP/game!), they allowed just 3 ER on 19 H and 4 BB for a 1.17 WHIP. Craig Breslow had an impressive Twins debut, striking out 3 in 1.2 perfect innings. Joe Nathan pitched 3 consecutive days and did not collapse. Word is the bullpen may expand to 13 members on Thursday when Scott Baker returns from the DL. I don't think that's necessary, especially if the starters resume their recent habit of pitching deep into games.

The defense made just one error in the series. Too bad it proved to be so costly.

The Twins offense continued to carry the team, scoring 5 or more runs in each game. Michael Cuddyer led the way, going 9-18 with a 2B, 3B, HR and 6 RBI. Delmon Young was right behind him, going 8-18 with 4 2B and 4 RBI. Alexi Casilla continued to produce from the #2 spot, going 5-15 with 4 R, 3 RBI and 3 BB. Joe Mauer finally broke his HR drought. The only part of the lineup that disappointed was Carlos Gomez, who went 3-20 with 6 K, and only 1 R and 1 RBI. Hopefully he can shake it off and get back to kicking ass against the Orioles.

Friday, May 30, 2008

Streaking

Twins 4, Royals 3 (12 innings)
Twins 9, Royals 8 (10 innings)
Twins 5, Royals 1


What an amazing road trip. The Twins went 5-1 despite allowing as many runs as they scored (36). Always a good thing to concentrate the sucking into a single game!

I feel really bad for the Royals and their fans. We've been there, at least those of us who loved the Twins through the '90's. That the Royals renaissance has yet to take hold must be unbearable for their faithful. And after showing signs of being much improved just a couple weeks ago, to now be in the midst of yet another double-digit losing streak, how awful. And to have that streak prolonged after being comfortably ahead with 2 out in the 9th inning must be utterly soul-crushing. No wonder Guillen snapped.

Delmon Young made things a lot harder than they needed to be. Clearly, his attempt at a sliding catch in the 9th on Tuesday was ill-advised. I do appreciate the enthusiasm, but I would have flipped my lid if another game had been thrown away by defensive ineptitude. Incredibly, he was even worse on Wednesday. Kudos for Gardy for having the good sense to finally sit him down and end his undeserved consecutive-games streak. With that out of the way, he can more easily sit out several times over the remainder of the season.

Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey both took shutouts into the 9th inning. I know the Royals haven't exactly been lighting it up lately, but one has to be impressed with their progress this season. Livan Hernandez, meanwhile, got blown to bits once again, by the afore-mentioned team that hasn't been lighting it up. Who's eating the innings now? While the Twins talk of sending Boof to the bullpen and potentially releasing Bass or Rincon to make room for Scott Baker, I wonder when the conversation will turn to releasing Livan. Surely, the optimum time to trade him has passed us by.

Michael Cuddyer has been in a horrible slump, but it was easy to see why the hits were so difficult to come by on Tuesday and Wednesday. He went 3 for 11 in the two games (good for him, lately), the hits coming on fastballs knee-high on the outside corner that he poked into right or right-center. The Royals pitchers did a very good job of spotting their fastball in that location, then mixing in sliders or splitters that start in that location before diving out of the zone. With two strikes, it's difficult for Cuddy not to try to protect out there, but he ends up looking bad when the breaking balls land in the dirt. He may have to determinedly take 2 strikes in order to try to force pitchers to come back up and over the plate.

Gardy looked pretty good on Wednesday night, didn't he? He received a ton of criticism over the last week or so for using Joe Nathan so sparingly in close or extra-inning games. I agreed that after throwing just 10 pitches in the 9th on Tuesday, it would have been sensible to send him back out for the 11th. The Royals used their closer for 2 innings and 31 pitches. For some reason, that made him absolutely unavailable for Wednesday, and when the 9th spun out of control, they didn't go to Soria. I doubt he would have needed more than 3 or 4 pitches to dispatch Craig Monroe. Anyway, Monroe came through, and there was Nathan, fresh as a daisy, to collect the save for the Twins in the bottom of the 10th.

Carlos Gomez has had a much better May. I'll go over the numbers after Saturday's game is complete, but I don't think there's much he can do in the next 2 games to diminish his accomplishments this month. His overall approach at the plate has been better, and he's played much better defense. He's still got a ways to go, so I hope the trend continues throughout the summer. I won't say putting him on the team out of spring training was the right decision, but it doesn't look like such a bad decision right now.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Bad Breaks

Twins 11, Rangers 4
Rangers 10, Twins 1
Rangers 8, Twins 7 (10 innings)


Ugh. Another potential winning homestand thrown away by poor defense. Just as giving away base runners proved fatal against a good pitching team like the Blue Jays, giving extra outs is fatal against a good hitting team like the Rangers. The Twins gave Texas 10 unearned runs over the 4 games. Had they played solid defense, they would have won 3 of 4 (without having to go to extra innings), and might have kept Wednesday's game close.

Twins pitchers repeatedly failed to pick up their defenders. Bonser, Perkins and Blackburn were all cruising for 5-6 IP, but once their fielders let a play slip, they were all quickly chased from the game. They need to learn to bear down and keep the ball out of the middle of the plate when they get into tough situations.

Alexi Casilla had a terrific series at the plate (.333/.412/.600, HR, 6 RBI, 5 R)while Brendan Harris sat in the dog house, but his 2 errors led to 7 of the unearned runs.

Delmon Young kept the XBH parade going for the first couple games of the series, but he had a brutal afternoon on Thursday, going 0-5 and stranding 7 base-runners. He hit into 2 DPs, including one with the bases loaded in the 1st.

I'm not sure why Craig Monroe (0-4, 2 K) got the start today. The Twins will be facing 2 lefties over the weekend in Detroit, so he'll most likely get 2 starts there. I'm also not sure why Justin Morneau got the day off from the field, with a scheduled off day coming on Monday. Michael Cuddyer made a costly error at 1st in his place, and also gave up an infield hit in the 6th (which led to a run) which an actual first baseman might have had an easier time fielding.

The Rangers are a stupendous hitting team, so I don't blame any of the pitchers for giving up hits (the back-door slider Hamilton hit out for the game-winner today was a little up, but it's ridiculous how far he hit it to the opposit field), but the Twins generally had a good approach against their atrocious pitching staff, drawing 20 walks during the 4 games. It's weird to say it, but the piece of the Twins' game that has been the most lacking this month has been defense.

Span vs. Gomez

Gomez had, in my view, his best all-around game of the season today, going 4-5 with a HR, 3 RBI, 2 R, and a sweet diving catch in CF for the 2nd straight game. For the series, he went .467/.529/.867, reaching base in each game, raising his season line to .286/.318/.440.

I've realized that my problem with Gomez isn't so much his approach at the plate (which still needs a lot of work), but the fact that that approach is so glaringly wrong for the leadoff spot. He's drawn 4 more walks (+ 2 HBP) in May than April, but he'll need to show that kind of improvement every month before his isolated discipline is anywhere near where it needs to be to justify getting the most PA of anyone on the team. However, if he took his exact numbers to the bottom of the lineup (anywhere 7-9), I couldn't complain, particularly when he continues to outhit Young.

Span is unquestionably the better leadoff hitter right now. Despite falling off his absurd pace of the past week with an 0-14 over his last 3 games (including 6 K), his AAA line is still a terrific .327/.431/.471. Unfortunately, he's out of the picture for 3-4 weeks, thanks to a broken finger he suffered while attempting a bunt on Tuesday night. That leaves all my eggs precariously in Go-Go's basket.

How exciting (gulp)!

Monday, May 19, 2008

Mile Low

Twins 4, Rockies 2
Rockies 3, Twins 2
Rockies 6, Twins 2


My wife and I were furiously working on curtains for the nursery this weekend, so I didn't get to watch any of the Twins/Rockies "action" after Friday night. My condolences to all the poor bastards who did. How excruciating to see so many men left on base, while quality pitching was being wasted. It's amazing to me that these two teams combined for just 19 runs in 3 games. Neither one is playing very well right now.

The Twins went 3 for 8 with runners in scoring position on Friday (+2 SF). Backed by Nick Blackburn's strongest start in almost a month (7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 5 K), decent relief pitching (OK except for the walks) and a Kamikaze catch from Gomez to end the game (I never said he couldn't go get it out there!), they came away with a win.

I was peeking at the scoreboard every now and then on Saturday. "Wait a minute," I thought, "is that Livan Hernandez with a no-hitter into the 6th inning? The Rockies must be in worse shape than I thought!" Amazing how quickly that 0 R on 0 H turned into 3 R on 8 H, huh? Still, given his typical run support, that should have been win number 7 for Livan. (Anybody want him?) It should be noted that the Rockies started each of their last 3 innings of this game with XBH - all of those guys scored. The Twins' offense managed just 2 R despite putting 12 men on base, going 1 for 7 with men in scoring position and stranding 9.

On Sunday, the Twins began each of their first 2 innings of batting with XBH, and had a 1-out triple in the 3rd, but none of them scored. 0 for 8 with RISP right there. For the game, they went 1 for 12. Kevin Slowey came one out short of a Quality Start, but allowed the last 4 batters to reach (after allowing only 4 to reach in the first 5.2 IP). Once again, the penultimate hitter ground out a long AB (10-pitch walk to Brad Hawpe) - maybe something to watch out for in the future.

The best news of the weekend came from Delmon Young, who doubled his season XBH total from 4 to 8, raising his season line to .287/.328/.348. A couple more series like that, and maybe we can all relax about his power potential.

Friday, April 18, 2008

Out of Control

Indians 4, Twins 0

Liriano was a little better tonight in his second start. While he was just as wild (5 BB), he lasted a bit longer (5 IP), gave up 1 fewer run (3 ER), and 2 fewer hits (4) than in his previous appearance. Not as many of the balls put in play were hit hard. A step forward for Liriano, albeit a small one. He won't be able to take a big step until he can locate his fastball.

There wasn't much hope against Cliff Lee tonight, as with Bannister in Liriano's previous start (Liriano must be jealous of Boof Bonser's run support!). The Twins gave themselves an excellent chance by having lengthy ABs in the early innings. I was particularly impressed with the bottom of the 5th, when Lee had to throw 19 pitches to get Young, Kubel and Monroe in order. At the end of that inning he was at 80 pitches. As it turned out, he left the game after 109 pitches despite giving up just 2 hits and being in total command of the game. That goes to show that had the Twins built off that taxing 5th, they might have been able to get Lee out of the game an inning or so earlier had they continued to have grinding ABs. Instead, Harris, Punto and Gomez went down on 6 pitches total in the 6th, Morneau hit into a double play in the 7th, and Lee was able to start the 8th still shy of the 100-pitch mark.

Two bright spots in a dull night:

Rincon and Crain each pitched 2 innings, walking none and striking out 2. The obligatory Casey Blake HR (he's got to get at least one in every series vs. the Twins - it's a rule) was the only hit allowed by either. Another solid outing from the middle relief!

Young and Monroe had as productive a combined 0-5 as is possible on a night like tonight. Together they saw 34 of Lee's 109 pitches. Young drew his 3rd walk of the season. The only AB for these two that lasted fewer than 5 pitches was when Monroe drove the 2nd pitch to the wall in left-center to end the 8th. If only the rest of the lineup had been so pesky!