...And Slams Closed

In the baseball transaction equivalent of Jerry Maguire's proposal to Dorothy Boyd (somewhere Rod Tidwell is nodding in amazement and saying, "Well, this definitely was another way to go"), the Tigers found a permanent solution to a temporary problem. Well, technically not permanent, but 9 years is a long time in baseball. Prince Fielder will be filling the hole in the lineup opened by Victor Martinez' knee injury.

Several smart people have correctly explained how this will probably be a long-term liability for Detroit. But for 2012, they have done what seemed impossible a few days ago: upgraded over Martinez. While everything I said last week about regression and their unathletic defense and baserunning is still true (perhaps even more so), Fielder is easily going to be worth 4+ wins over whoever else they might have run out there. They are now a better team than they were last October, 90 wins is suddenly easily within their grasp, and the remainder of the AL Central is far back in the rearview mirror.

In this light, the Twins' conservative offseason strategy is vindicated. They would still do well to add one more high-upside veteran RHP on a 1-year deal, though. It should be done with the idea that he could be dealt in July or August for someone who can add longer-term value to the organization. Even a riskier guy health-wise, like Brad Lidge or Michael Wuertz, makes a lot of sense under the circumstances.

Though they aren't likely be much better than .500 as presently constituted, the Twins are well-positioned to improve themselves over the next two seasons. They are fielding a starting lineup of competent veterans. They finally have some impact players at AAA who could push their way onto the big league roster by September. Should they find themselves in contention, they will be in position to deal for help, thanks to some payroll headroom and a good crop of highly regarded prospects at the lower levels. Whatever they lose in-season could largely be replaced by the 5 top-75 selections they'll make in next June's draft. And, outside of the M&M boys, they have relatively modest payroll commitments for 2013, giving them flexibility to do even more smart shopping next winter.

The Tigers are in the driver's seat for 2012. The Twins have avoided committing too many resources to what will likely be a 2nd-place campaign. 2013 is when things will really get interesting in the division.

The Door Opens

The Tigers won the AL Central handily last year. Their 95-67 record was 15 games better than the 2nd-place Indians. No other team in the division finished over .500. Though they have largely stood pat this offseason, the remainder of the division is so far behind the talent Detroit is returning that there has been little controversy in picking them as the favorites to repeat in 2012.

I wouldn't pick them to win 90+ games again, though. Their .318 team BABIP was the best in the Majors by a good margin, exceeding the league average by .024. Players from Miguel Cabrera to Alex Avila to Jhonny Peralta were well over their career norms in this regard. That factor alone makes a healthy regression in their offensive output likely. Throw in the fact that their Closer, Jose Valverde, didn't blow a save in 49 tries (5 blown saves would have been a very good percentage) - a feat he will almost certainly fail to repeat this year - and it's easy to see their win total dropping into the upper 80s.

But with the White Sox (mostly) rebuilding, the Indians short on resources, the Royals still probably a year away and the Twins facing a slew of injury concerns, the Tigers appeared to be the only member of the AL Central for whom 86+ wins was within reach.

Until Tuesday, when we learned that Victor Martinez will likely be out for the season with a torn ACL suffered during offseason workouts. V-Mart was a middle-of-the-order force for the Tigers last year, batting .330/.380/.470 with 103 RBIs. A switch-hitter, he had an .830+ OPS from both sides of the plate. At this point in the offseason, he will be difficult to replace.

There are FA DHs still available, but most of them are in the decline phase of their careers. None of Carlos Pena, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Vladimir Guerrero or Manny Ramirez could be expected to match what Martinez gave the Tigers last year. If I were them, I'd go for Pena, who crushes righties and is at least a good defender at 1B. He could push Cabrera to DH vs. RHP, and they would come out ahead in those match-ups. But they would be much more vulnerable vs. LHP.

Depending on who they get to fill their DH slot, the loss of Martinez probably will cost the Tigers another couple of wins. While their pitching should remain good, they now figure to be a below-average team at the plate, on the bases and in the field. Suddenly, 84-86 wins is looking like the best-case scenario for them. (That was the pace they were on at the trading deadline last summer, by the way, before finishing a ridiculous 39-16 over the last two months.)

Given the precarious health of several of their core players, the Twins have understandably been cautious about overcommitting themselves to the 2012 campaign. They've spent about $21M to bring in 6 FA, mostly on modest, short-term deals. They've replaced their own FA losses more or less equally, and added depth in a couple of areas. Plus, they were unlucky last year, in everything from health to outcomes of batted balls. They should score a lot more runs and allow a lot fewer this year. The improvements may even be enough to bring their RS and RA into balance, which would result in about a .500 team. Respectable, but not a contender. But with $100M already spent to get the team to that level, and the market value of a marginal win nearly $5M, the Twins obviously can't afford to add the extra talent needed to get them to the 86-88 win level.

Now the injury to Martinez changes this calculus. The Tigers are nearly within reach, and one or two more judicious moves could elevate the Twins to the level of true contenders in the division. Look at it this way: if the Twins were 4 games back in the standings at the end of July, we'd expect them to make a move or two to take on payroll and go for the title. Surely, they are much more likely to make up that difference over 162 games than 55. They should spend the money now.

Roy Oswalt is there for the taking, for less than $10M. RH setup men like Dan Wheeler or Todd Coffey could be scooped up for less than $2M. The Twins could pick up Oswalt plus another reliever, kick Nick Blackburn into the bullpen as a long man/6th starter, and proceed into the season with a good pitching staff, all while spending a few million dollars less than they did on players at the start of last season. If things don't work out, they'd have a bunch of quality veterans they could deal in July and August while saving a bit of cash. If things do work out, it would be worth the extra expense, wouldn't it?

Alternately, the Twins could deal from their surplus of A-ball prospects to upgrade the rotation. At least half of those players won't amount to anything, and whoever is dealt can be more or less replaced with one of the Twins' 5 early picks in this June's draft. The Astros may be willing to eat some salary on Wandy Rodriguez or Brett Myers. Either one would be a huge upgrade over Blackburn.

In 2011, everything broke right for the Tigers and wrong for the Twins. A month before spring training, it's already clear that fortunes will be different in 2012. A little flexibility from the Twins now could position them to take advantage of some better luck in the coming season.

Microcosm

Twins 4, Tigers 8
Twins 2, Tigers 3
Twins 1, Tigers 2

It's the Tigers' year. There have been hints of that throughout the season, most notably that their actual record has far outpaced their Pythagorean Record for most of the summer. Their key players have been healthy and productive. Their opportunistic offense has frequently been able to bail out their largely unimpressive pitching staff. They have won 9 straight. Everything is going their way.

It's not the Twins' year. Their key players have all been injured, and most have been unproductive when in the lineup. Their anemic offense has been unable to step up and provide enough runs for the pitchers to win on the rare days when the hurlers haven't also stunk. They have lost 17 of 21 and 31 of 40. Nothing is going their way.

With that as the backdrop, was there really any doubt that the Tigers would find a way to prevail in the tight games on Saturday and Sunday? Did it matter that Glen Perkins, the Twins' best reliever this season, was facing Brandon Inge, the Tigers' worst hitter? That Perkins had allowed 1 HR all year going into their matchup, and that Inge had hit just 2? When the 1st 2 batters reached against Jose Valverde in the 9th inning on Sunday, was there really any hope that they would both score and cost him his 1st BS of 2011?

Of course not.

Notes:

• Did you notice the way Perkins took responsibility for serving up the dinger to Inge and blamed it on Drew Butera at the same time? To paraphrase: "It's my fault for agreeing to throw the stupid pitch that Drew called." Was he being cunning or tactless? I can't decide. But I do know that with every passing week I grow more secure in my conviction that Butera doesn't actually call a good game.



• The Rays just DFA'd Rob Delaney. Maybe the Twins should scoop him back up. He's been pathetic in 6 total IP for the Rays and Twins so far, but what do you really learn about a guy in 6 jittery innings? In 195.1 IP at AAA he's got a 1.18 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 and just 2.5 BB/9. It's worth a look. What have they got to lose?



• The Twins are now just 1/2 game ahead of the Orioles in the MLB standings. Oh, so close to the #2 overall draft pick! Keep it up, fellas!



• The Rockies trail Cleveland by 4 games and Toronto by 4.5 games. If they can pass them both, there's a good chance that they'll move into the top half of the MLB standings, where their aspirations to sign Michael Cuddyer could really do the Twins some good. Go Rox!

Hell Week

Twins 2, Tigers 10

Twins 7, Tigers 9

Oh my sweet Lord, when is this horror show going to be over?

Twins 0, Blue Jays 2

Twins 3, Blue Jays 9 (11 innings)

Twins 3, Blue Jays 11

Seriously, why don't they just kick me in the balls?

I'll make Saturday's loss the 4th of the season squarely on the shoulders of the depth. Not just because the Twins only needed one more run over 10 innings of batting in order to win this one. Because James Hoey got absolutely torched in the 11th, and I don't think he'd be up here right now if several other guys hadn't already failed.

For the week, the Twins pitched well enough to win on Friday and Saturday and hit well enough to win on Wednesday. But whatever needs to happen in order for them to lose, happens. They're on a 110-loss pace right now. Almost nobody loses that much. To lose that much, an avalanche of things has to go wrong. And it has.

One could have predicted that a few of the Twins' moves wouldn't pan out, and that there would be some injuries. But to lose Mauer, and Nishioka, and have Casilla suck worse than he ever has, forcing Gardy to overuse Tolbert and Butera and (who are sucking worse than they ever have), let alone Butera's even worse backups? To have Nathan and Morneau each struggle mightily to recover from their 2010 injuries? To have Capps blow more than his share of saves? To have Liriano and Pavano each see significant spikes in HR/9 and BB/9 with corresponding plummets in their K/9, becoming, in effect, completely different pitchers than they were last year? To have every young player called up from AAA sputter and fail to make a positive impact?

A few of those things were bound to happen. But all of them at once? Inconceivable. And yet, here we are.

Leverage

I have to admit, having a newborn and a 2 year old does put a bit of a damper on the blogging. It doesn't stop me from keeping a close eye on the Twins, though...

Twins 4, Tigers 3

Twins 2, Tigers 1 (10 innings)

Twins 9, Tigers 10 (13 innings)

The crappy hitting from the road trip lingered into the first 2 games of this series. Luckily, Brian Duensing and Francisco Liriano each pitched into the 7th inning, and neither allowed any ER. The Twins still ended up using at least 4 relievers in each game, including Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Matt Capps in both.

The offense got plenty of help from the Detroit bullpen on Tuesday, with 2 BB and 2 HBP contributing to the winning rally. One of the HBP knocked Jason Kubel out for the next 4 games, however. That certainly made things tougher in Wednesday's contest. Thanks to other nagging injuries, the Twins were also without Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome. Danny Valencia delivered a couple more big hits in the middle of the two scoring rallies, and the Twins managed to win a game in which they only had 8 baserunners in 10 innings.

The Thursday night fiasco was as much a result of catastrophic mismanagement of the roster as anything that happened on the field. On Wednesday, the Twins had the opportunity to call up as many warm bodies from AAA as they had on the 40-man roster. They cavalierly elected to bring up only 2 position players, Trevor Plouffe and Jose Morales. No pitchers, even though Brian Fuentes was ailing and 3 of their righties should have been considered unavailable for Thursday. The bullpen effectively consisted of Jon Rauch, Randy Flores and Jeff Manship.

Manship was called into service almost immediately, as Scott Baker was removed with elbow soreness after 2 laborious and ineffective IP. Manship held the Tigers to 1 R on 4 H over 4 IP, and Rauch pitched a scoreless 7th. Meanwhile, the offense finally broke out, scoring 7 R on 12 H, with the help of a BB and a couple of Tiger errors. With the score 7-3 heading to the 8th, the Twins looked as though they would match the White Sox' 3-game sweep of the Indians. Once Flores allowed a 1-out HR, fill-in manager Scott Ullger (Gardy had been tossed during the previous inning for correctly arguing a call) decided to go to the 'pen for... the exhausted Guerrier. Whoops. Guerrier gave up 3 H and left with the score tied, though the last 2 R of the frame came on yet another too-low throw from JJ Hardy which Michael Cuddyer couldn't dig out.

The Twins scratched another run in the bottom half, but let the Tigers tie it again when Crain allowed his first HR in ages. He was available, but Capps wasn't? Anyway, Crain labored through 2 IP. Then Duensing came in for 2 IP, forcing the Twins to push back his Sunday start. Then Nick Blackburn came in, forcing the Twins to scratch him from Friday's start. This was a game to give the White Sox hope, as the Twins fumbled a 4-R lead late, then decimated their rotation in a drawn out losing effort.

Still, it was a series win, and it lowered the magic number to 26.

Twins 4, Rangers 3

Twins 12, Rangers 4

Twins 6, Rangers 5

The Twins were forced to add Matt Fox to the 40-man roster to start Friday's game. He had a terrific MLB debut: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB. That kept the Twins in the game long enough to string a few hits together and take a 4-3 lead after 7 innings. Capps came in for a 5-out save after Flores failed to retire the lefty he was brought in to face.

After 6 straight 1-run games, it was nice to finally win one comfortably. The Twins annihilated Rangers starter Colby Lewis (on my fantasy team - making the result ever so slightly bittersweet) for 9 ER in 3.2 IP. Thome put an exclamation point on the day with 2 HR, moving him into sole possession of 9th on the all-time HR list. Carl Pavano delivered another 8-inning QS. Ian Kinsler soured the afternoon by homering off Rob Delaney in his MLB debut.

The Twins led most of the way in the finale. Blackburn delivered another 7-inning QS. The Twins broke the game open by taking advantage of a bunch of BB in the 6th. Rauch tried to finish up the last 2 innings, but gave up an RBI 2B with 2 out in the 9th. In came Matt Capps, who proceeded to allow all four batters he faced to reach. The final IF hit resulted in the last out when the 3B ump ruled that baserunner Michael Young had made contact with the third base coach. Whatever. I'll take it. That was frighteningly close to being a repeat of Thursday night. Instead, it was another Twins' sweep, making them 6-0 vs. the Rangers at home.

The White Sox swept the Red Sox in Fenway, once again getting away with a late rally. No help there. But the 3 Twins wins lowered the magic number to 23.

Twins 5, Royals 4

Twins 10, Royals 3

Twins 4, Royals 3

Almost a repeat of the Texas series. The Twins got just enough offense to win on Monday night. Flores again allowed the only lefty he faced to reach. But a more rested Guerrier came on to bail him out.

The middle game was a comfy blowout, capped by another loud blast from Thome, a moonshot into the stars of the American Flag in Target Plaza estimated at 480 feet. Another Rochester guy, Pat Neshek this time, was given a rude welcome to the big leagues while mopping up in the 9th.

The Twins beat Zach Greinke again in the finale, waiting until the middle innings to string some hits together. Duensing was stellar for 8 IP. Capps almost let the game get away in the 9th.

This time, the White Sox faltered, finishing their 10-game road trip with 3 straight losses in Detroit. That, combined with another Twins sweep, elevated the Twins' lead in the division to a season-high 6 games, and dropped the magic number to 17 with 22 games to play.

An 8-1 home stand. And had the Twins gotten a good throw from Hardy in that critical 8th inning against the Tigers, it could have been 9-0. Not a lot of hitting, but it was timely. Very strong pitching. And some nice breaks, too. Everything is going the Twins' way as they head into the final 3 1/2 weeks of the season.

Saved By the Bell

Twins 3, Tigers 7

In my June Review, I said of Francisco Liriano, "If he can just cut down on the HBP and IF H, we're in business." Well, in this game, he hit 2 batters - and they both scored. He allowed a bunt single on what was really just an attempted sacrifice - and that guy scored. Plus, he walked the leadoff guy in the 1st and 2nd inning - and they both scored. On top of all the bases he gave away, he allowed 5 other H (2 of which were merely well-placed grounders) to the first 15 batters, so there would have been a little damage in the early innings regardless. But the free passes turned what could have been nothing more than some early jams into an early exit for Liriano, and an insurmountable 7-0 deficit after just 2 innings.

The offense did a pretty good job against Justin Verlander - it's rare to knock him out before he's finished 6 IP. They collected 8 H and 2 BB. Unfortunately, all of the H were singles, and they were generally spaced out just enough to prevent any big damage. Except for the 6th inning, which began with 5 straight batters reaching, chasing Verlander from the game. The Twins got just 1 R out of that rally, though, because Orlando Hudson got himself picked off (the 2nd PO of the game) after his leadoff single. Trailing 7-1, there's no way he was going to steal 2nd, so it's pretty unforgivable to let that happen. He should have scored ahead of Joe Mauer on Jason Kubel's RBI single. Then, Delmon Young's bases loaded GIDP would have come with 0 outs, plating another run, and the Twins could have had a 3-spot in the inning.

The Twins wouldn't have beaten anybody playing the way they did on Friday. Especially not a top pitcher on a 1st-place team. Blech.

Twins 4, Tigers 7

I couldn't bear to watch this one. Nick Blackburn has been such a disaster on the road this season, you just knew this wasn't going to be a fun game for Twins fans. He sort of, almost, a little bit kept the team in it for awhile, allowing just 5 H through the first 4 IP. They were all XBH, though, including 3 HR, resulting in 4 ER.

Still, Jeremy Bonderman isn't anything to be afraid of on the mound, and the Twins touched him for a couple of R in the 3rd on a 2-run single from Hudson. Michael Cuddyer blasted his 2nd HR of the trip in the 4th, and the Twins were down just a run heading into the bottom of the 5th. 2B, BB, 3-run HR for Johnny Damon, and the game was once again out of reach. Blackburn got 9 groundball outs, so his sinker was obviously working, at times. But every H he allowed was either a 2B or an HR. He's an absolute mess right now, and he's giving the team no chance to win.

Twins 6, Tigers 3

Where would this team be without Carl Pavano? Once again, with the pitching staff on the ropes, he took the ball and kept the Twins in the game for at least 7 innings. He was especially good in the early goings on Sunday, retiring the first 13 batters and facing the minimum through 5 innings.

That gave the offense plenty of time to build a lead. Even with Joe Mauer taking a day off, the top of the order did a nice job setting the table. Young moved up to the #3 spot, and he, Denard Span and Hudson each reached base twice and combined to score 4 R. Big day for Cuddyer: 2-3, 2B, 2 BB, 2 RBI. He seems to be heating up. And Danny Valencia keeps having pretty good AB; he went 1-4 with an RBI 2B and hits the break at .310/.375/.345.

Mad props to the bullpen this weekend for cleaning up considerable messes on Friday and Saturday and locking down the win on Sunday. Just about everybody was called upon - even Kevin Slowey - and they combined for 11.2 shutout innings.

The All-Star Break could not be coming at a better time for the Twins. They are reeling, losers of 5 of the last 6 series and 13 of 19 games. Meanwhile, the Tigers - and especially the White Sox, are soaring. The Tigers are 18-9 over the last month. The Sox are 25-5. The break will enable the Twins to make a clean separation between their horrid play of the last 3 weeks, and the rather good play they're going to provide for the remainder of the season. And it will give the competition a chance to cool off and remember that they're not actually good enough to win 4-5 out of every 6 games.

Notes:

• I was hoping the Twins would be able to get through this series without using Matt Guerrier. He made 2 appearances, each lasting just 1 batter, for a total of 6 pitches. I suppose that wasn't too taxing for him.
• Justin Morneau missed the series with lingering symptoms from the concussion he suffered last Wednesday, and will sit out the All Star Game. Filling in at 1B, Cuddyer has gone 6 for 15 with 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB and 4 RBI (.400/.471/.933). Wouldn't it be something if both those guys could be in the lineup, producing, at the same time?

Still On Top

Twins 5, Tigers 7

This series got off to a brutal start as Francisco Liriano hit the leadoff man with an 0-1 pitch, then failed to field a bunt to the right of the mound. The next 4 batters zinged line drives (Miguel Cabrera deserves credit for driving a ball below the knees for a 2-R 2B, Liriano deserves scorn for hanging a pitch to Brennan Boesch for another 2-R 2B). The malaise of the interleague road trip lasted 6 batters into the home stand. After that, Liriano was himself again, allowing just 1 ER on 2 H, 2 BB and 6 K, until he was undone in the 7th by a leadoff bunt hit and a failure to get an out on the ensuing sacrifice.

Other than the runs allowed, Jeremy Bonderman's line didn't even look as good as Liriano's. But he managed to scatter his H a little better, and he was bailed out by 3 GIDP - 2 from Jason Kubel. Still, there was still plenty of offense from the Twins' lineup. Jim Thome at DH looks like a really good idea, at least against RHP. In this game, he had a BB, HR and his first 3B since 2004.

The loss put the Tigers in 1st place by 0.5 games, the first time the Twins trailed in the division since April.

Twins 11, Tigers 4

This was a do or die game for Nick Blackburn's spot in the rotation. He didn't pitch brilliantly, but it was enough to win on this night. 7 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. He allowed 3 R in the 3rd, but settled in pretty well after that. He only gave up 2 XBH, and got 12 ground ball outs. That's more like it.

The offense creamed Armando Galarraga and Fu Te Ni. Everybody reached base at least once, thanks to 13 H and 7 BB. 8 of the H went for extra bases, led by Denard Span's 3 3Bs. Thome added another HR.

Twins 5, Tigers 1

Kevin Slowey has been pretty shaky lately, so it was a pleasure to see him moving efficiently through Detroit's lineup. He needed just 81 pitches to complete 6 IP, with 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB and 4 K, before he was knocked out of the game by a Magglio Ordonez liner off his ankle. Matt Guerrier looked a little shaky in the 8th, as he did in his appearance on Monday, but he got through it unscathed. Jon Rauch, who hasn't had a save since the Rockies series, had to face 2 extra batters in the 9th after Matt Tolbert, inserted for defensive purposes, committed the 1st E by a Twins 3B this season.

Delmon Young got to hit 3rd with Joe Mauer getting the day off. He delivered an RBI single in 4 trips. Morneau was the big hitting hero with a 2B, HR and 2 RBI. Thome struck out 3 times against LHP. Michael Cuddyer had a lot of liners find leather in this series, but capped it by going 2 for 3 with a BB. The key rally in the 5th inning began with an IF H followed by the Tigers' failing to get an out on a sacrifice bunt. There's some symmetry in that.

The Twins did what they had to do in this series, winning 2 of 3 games and turning back the Tigers' advances towards 1st place. And rather emphatically, I might add. After the 1st inning on Monday, the Twins outscored the Tigers 20-8 the rest of the way. We saw that the Tigers are capable of some timely hitting, led by MVP candidate Cabrera and their improbably successful rookies. But we saw their weaknesses, too: poor starting pitching from the back of the rotation, easy outs from the bottom of the lineup, shaky defense all over the field. They are not a team that should be overlooked, but neither are the Tigers a team the Twins should fear.

First Sweep

Twins 10, Tigers 4

Since they were shut out for the first time last Thursday, the Twins have established a wonderful offensive habit: they've put up a crooked number in the 1st inning. After Denard Span struck out to lead off the game - the only K of Max Scherzer's outing - the next 4 batters reached and scored, culminating in Michael Cuddyer's bomb into the 2nd deck in LF. It was more of the same in the 2nd as the first 3 hitters reached and scored, with Span's 2-RBI 3B the big blow. After 2 innings, the Twins had built a commanding 7-0 lead.

Then the bad habits kicked in: the Twins have been letting up on bloodied starters the 2nd time through the order, swinging early in the count and enabling them to hang around for a couple more innings than they maybe should have. Span's 3B came on Scherzer's 45th pitch, but he was able to get the next 9 outs on just 27 pitches. Meanwhile, the Tigers were narrowing the lead to 7-3. Patience returned in the 5th, as Jim Thome took 3 balls, Cuddyer and Jason Kubel walked, and JJ Hardy and Wilson Ramos had RBI hits to put the game away.

While Joe Mauer's bruised heel heals, Ramos is on the roster at the expense of a 7th reliever. This actually has a wonderful effect on the pitching staff. Scott Baker had a QS and got the team into the 7th inning. With 1 out, super-rookie Austin Jackson doubled on Baker's 98th pitch. Lefty Johnny Damon and Baker's personal nemesis Magglio Ordonez were the next scheduled hitters. With an extra guy in the 'pen, maybe Gardy takes Baker out there. But with the 'pen depleted, you ask for more from your starters, and Baker stayed in and finished the inning. (That decision is easier to make with a 7-run lead, of course.)

Twins 4, Tigers 3

2 quick runs in the 1st inning off Dontrelle Willis thanks to 2-out RBI hits from Thome and Delmon Young. Willis was in essentially the same position as Scherzer after 10 batters, having allowed 6 baserunners while throwing 48 pitches. But, again, the Twins let up, as Willis retired 12 in a row, culminating in a 7-pitch 5th inning against the top of the order. The Tigers tied the game at 2-2, and Willis began the 6th with just 87 pitches. Cuddyer knocked him out with a booming 2B with 1 out, and then Delmon Young beat out a swinging bunt for an IF hit, setting up JJ Hardy for an RBI single and a 3-2 lead.

Short of striking out a handful of guys, Nick Blackburn was about as good as he can be. He used his time off to contemplate a slight change in his delivery, staying back longer, and the result was 18 groundball outs (including 2 DPs). He gave up his share of hits, of course - when all but 3 batters put the ball in play, that will happen - but nearly all of them were singles. I chuckled when Rick Anderson came to the mound after the Tigers began the 4th with 4 straight singles, 3 of which were grounders just out of the reach of Twins infielders. What was he going to tell him? Quit getting grounders? OK, Blackburn escaped the inning with 2 fly ball outs and a liner, then went right back to sinking.

Heading into the 9th, Blackburn had thrown just 85 pitches. Outside of the cluster in the 4th, he had scattered 4 H and a BB over the other 7 IP. He had retired 7 in a row - 6 on grounders - including the formidable veteran trio of Damon, Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera in an easy 8th inning. It was a save situation, and Jon Rauch was available, but Blackburn was in control, and at least looked unlikely to give up more than a single or two. So, of course, he served up an emphatic HR to the first man he faced in the 9th. Two outs later, Young was unable to make an over-the-shoulder catch on Alex Avila's drive to LF - it fell for a 2B.

On the next pitch, Hardy dove for a grounder deep in the hole, making a backhand stop. As soon as Nick Punto saw that, he went from his cutoff position back to third base, behind Avila, who rounded the bag hard in an attempt to score the would-be tying run. By the time he was held up, Hardy had flipped the ball to Punto, and Avila was a sitting duck for the final out of the inning. In the bottom half, Hardy drilled a 1-out drive off the wall in left center that caromed away from both OF for a 3B. The Tigers figured out that their best chance to get Ramos out was to throw sliders out of the strike zone. The 2nd bounced away from Avila, and Hardy trotted home with the winning run.

Twins 5, Tigers 4

A couple of curious lineup decisions for the finale. It's unclear to me why Kevin Slowey got the start on regular rest, giving Carl Pavano 6 days off since his CG loss to the Tigers last week. Especially since Pavano has owned the Tigers since coming to the AL Central, and Slowey came into the game with a career ERA north of 5.00 vs. Detroit. Kubel has killed Rick Porcello, so you have to get his bat in the lineup. But Young and Thome have both been swinging the bat well lately, so whom to sit? Why not give Cuddyer, who's played every game this season and came in 2 for 11 vs. Porcello, a rest? Nope, Thome sat out, and Cuddyer is now 2 for 14 against Porcello.

2 more 1st inning runs for the Twins, and nearly a 3rd as Young's sinking liner to CF held up for the final out. Porcello needed 23 pitches to get through that inning. But the bottom of the order let up in the 2nd, going down 1-2-3 on just 7 pitches. A leadoff BB to Span in the 3rd set up Kubel for a 2-out RBI 2B - he stayed back and drove the ball to the gap in left center. The key sequence for the Twins came in the next inning, after Porcello walked Alexi Casilla with 2 out. Punto drove a ball to the track in RF, and the swirling winds contributed to a staggering drop for a 3-base error and run. Span immediately drove in Punto with a liner past the SS that probably should have been at least knocked down. Those 2 unearned runs were the difference between victory and defeat for the Twins.

Slowey was OK again, but still failed to get through the 6th. He got ahead of almost everybody, but couldn't entice anyone to expand the strike zone. He allowed 3 solo HR, but as Bert Blyleven likes to say, those won't beat you. Having gotten 23 IP from the SP over the previous 3 games, the bullpen was rested and effective. With the tying run at the plate in the 8th, Brian Duensing came in and dispatched the 2 batters he faced on 1 pitch each. Rauch was touched for a HR leading off the 9th, but retired the next 3 batters easily enough for the save.

Coming into the series, some of the power rankings had the Tigers ahead of the Twins, though the Twins led by 0.5 games in the standings. But it just depends on when you take your snapshot. The Tigers were coming in on a 5-game winning streak. Before it started, they were just 11-10, the sort of .500-ish record I think we can expect from them for most of the season. They've scored a lot of runs, but a lot of that comes from an unsustainable multitude of 2B and a soaring, .400+ BABIP from Jackson. When those things come down to earth, their hole-riddled lineup will have a hard time scoring enough to make up for a shaky defense. The Twins, meanwhile, have been winning at a consistently robust clip, pitching well, defending excellently, and scoring plenty of runs despite hitting very poorly with the bases loaded. The Tigers are now 3.5 games back, and I don't expect them to stay even that close for very long.

Notes:

• In the AB in which Kubel struck out with the bases loaded to end the bottom of the 6th on Wednesday, LHP Fu-Te Ni threw only 1 pitch in the strike zone. Kubel should remember that the next time those 2 match up.
• Morneau has hit 6 HR, all on the road. Cuddyer has 4 HR, all at home.
• Tuesday night's game was the 27th of the season, a convenient time to multiply stats by 6 in order to calculate the pace for the full season. The Twins are on pace to go 108-54, outscoring their opponents 864-612. That RA total is about 200 less than what PECOTA predicted. The folks at BP got some 'splainin' to do.
• Glen Perkins has made 5 starts for AAA Rochester, but has accumulated just 17.1 IP. He's averaging more than a K/IP, but that's where the good news ends. He's walked 8 and allowed 31 H (including 5 HR) for a whip of 2.25 and a 10.90 ERA. I can't imagine a scenario in which he'd be useful to the Twins this season. It's time to take him off the 40-man roster (who would claim him off waivers? Why should we care if someone did?) and put Anthony Slama on.
• Slama, pitching in relief in that game, was touched for a 2-run HR in addition to 2 BB. Of course, the HR came on the 57th pitch of the relief appearance, to the 11th man he'd faced. Be gentle with him, Tom Nieto - we're going to need him later!

Defense Was the Difference

Twins 2, Tigers 0

Francisco Liriano's resurgence continued with 8 more scoreless IP, with just 4 H, 1 BB and 10 K. He's now thrown 23 straight scoreless innings and has retaken his place as not only the Twins' best starter, but one of the best in baseball. Jon Rauch pitched around a leadoff walk in the 9th thanks to a fine play by JJ Hardy at deep SS to get a force at 2B.

Nearly as effective as Liriano, though not remotely as efficient, was Tigers' ace Justin Verlander. He also allowed just 4 H and 0 ER, but was driven from the game in the 6th after throwing 121 pitches - 9 more than Liriano threw in his 8 IP. The Twins offense turned the walk machine on against the Tigers' bullpen, drawing 4 more BB to go with just 1 H.

The only runs in the game scored on errors by the Tigers. A would-be inning ending flyball was dropped in the gap LF Ryan Raburn allowing the first run to score. The 2nd came in on an errant throw to 1st from 2B Scott Sizemore after he'd flagged down a Jim Thome grounder in short RF.

Twins 6, Tigers 11

I have to admit, I thought this one was in the bag after the Twins chased Detroit starter Max Scherzer from the game in the 4th inning. They were up 6-1 thanks to HRs from Thome and Luke Hughes (connecting in his first MLB PA) and some 2-out H from Denard Span and Orlando Hudson. With Scott Baker on the hill, things looked to be under control.

There's plenty of blame to go around for what followed, but I think the fundamental responsibility lies with Baker. He'd allowed 1 ER on 3 H to start the game, but got a big GIDP from Miguel Cabrera and got out of the 1st with no further damage. There were minor jams in the 2nd and 3rd, but nothing he couldn't handle. Then, with the game seemingly blown open, he began the 4th by falling behind Brandon Inge, then serving up a HR. He walked 2 other hitters in the inning, each of whom scored. Orlando Hudson wasn't able to start a DP on Johnny Damon's slow chopper, setting up an AB for Magglio Ordonez with 2 RISP and 1B open. I know it's tough to put somebody on in front of Cabrera, but Ordonez owns Baker to such a shocking degree that it probably would have been the right move. Ordonez delivered a 2-run single, of course, and the game was suddenly in doubt at 6-5.

The disastrous 6th inning hinged on a blown call by the umpires: Span made a running catch in left-center, but dropped the ball while trying to take it out of his glove. The umps ruled no catch, and there were again 2 RISP with 1 out, instead of a man on 1st with 2 out. A mistake by the umps, but Span could have made that easy on everybody by not dropping the ball. Anyway, the bullpen allowed the next 5 men to reach - a BB and HBP from Pat Neshek and then 3 straight 2B to greet Jesse Crain. Definitely the sort of breakdown the Twins had avoided up to that point.

Twins 0, Tigers 3

Dontrelle Willis was as good as he can be. He located well and took advantage of another generous (or appropriate, depending on how you look it at) strike zone. The Twins' lineup was depleted, with JJ Hardy and Justin Morneau resting little injuries and Joe Mauer finally getting another day off, just his 3rd in 22 games. Of course, he didn't really get a day off, because he pinch hit for Drew Butera in the 8th and caught the bottom half. I know Mauer is awesome and everything, but I doubt he has to PH there if it's Jose Morales or Wilson Ramos catching.

Carl Pavano was just about as good as Willis. The difference was what happened behind him. The Tigers promptly took the lead when leadoff man Austin Jackson singled and stole 2nd. Butera, heralded for his ability to throw out runners, threw the ball away, putting Jackson on 3rd, where he was able to score on a SF from Damon. The Tigers' 2nd R came when Jason Kubel couldn't come up with a diving catch on a liner. I like the effort, but it turned a single into a double, and from 2nd Sizemore was able to score on a soft single from Jackson. The 3rd R came when Delmon Young couldn't handle a short-hop as he charged a sinking liner with 2 out in the 8th. That's his best chance to keep the score at 2-0 with Ordonez off at the crack of the bat. Not an easy play, but one that, had it been made, would have given Young an excellent chance to nail Ordonez at the plate.

It took until April 29th for the Twins to suffer their first real setback of the season. They couldn't do what they had done in every previous series: match their weak hitting games to their weak pitching games. Baker's run support from Wednesday would have been plenty for Pavano today, and if you're going to give up 11 R, you might as well not score any. But there's no shame in losing a series on the road, particularly to a relatively strong team like the Tigers. They've just got to take care of business in Cleveland to come home with a winning trip.

Time Warp

Twins 6, Tigers 5 (12 innings)

I've been running around asking my friends here in LA: "Were you watching the 1991 Worlds Series? No? Because every game was just like that!"

Well, 5 of the 7, anyway. When Alexi Casilla was thrown out at the plate in the bottom of the 10th, it was apparent that it was going to take an extraordinary effort from somebody to finish things off. Each team had to play most of the extra frames with defensive subs (Carlos Gomez, Clete Thomas) in for their 2nd-best hitters (Jason Kubel, Magglio Ordonez), with pinch runners (Alexi Casilla, Dan Kelly) in for their DHs (Brendan Harris, Carlos Guillen). And those scrub subs wound up getting some of the biggest hits of the game.

I had said that Scott Baker needed to keep the ball in the yard to give the Twins a chance. He didn't, and it's especially galling to me that the HR he allowed to Miguel Cabrera came on an 0-2 pitch, just after he'd gotten Cabrera to swing and miss at a breaking ball down. Why that pitch was anywhere near the strike zone, let alone up, I don't understand. The Twins pitchers did a terrible job of finishing guys off after they got 2 strikes on them. That's not going to take them very far against the Yankees.

Unlike the the Yankees, the Tigers only had a couple of bats to worry about in their lineup: Ordonez and Cabrera. Were the Twins taking extra care with them? Each had 2 H, a HR, and 2 RBI. As keyed up as Cabrera was over his adventures last weekend, I don't think it was necessary to throw him anything inside the margins of the strike zone. Again, more precision will be required vs. the Yankees.

I think Gardy panicked a bit going to the bullpen in the 7th. I was already thinking that extras might be likely, and he ended up burning 2 of his best relievers (Jon Rauch, Jose Mijares) on just 3 hitters. Yes, the leadoff walk to Brandon Inge was a bad thing, but Gerald Laird is a RH batter, and not a very good one. Why not let Baker face him and his impending bunt attempt? Bring in Mijares to turn around Ramon Santiago, if you want, but then you've still got Rauch to work a full inning (or 2) later on. Gardy's use of the bullpen in the 7th was the reason that Bobby Keppel was on the mound in the 11th and 12th.

But then Keppel, the 2nd-weakest guy available in the 'pen (I'd put him ahead of Manship, at this point), wriggled out of a bases-loaded, 1-out jam. Incredible. And in the bottom half, we found ourselves right where we were 53 weeks ago: the division on the line, the winning run in scoring position in extra innings, a man intentionally walked to get to Casilla. And, just as he did against Bobby Jenks last September, Casilla delivered, despite having just 19 PA in the last 5 weeks. Awesome.

It was a great game, to be sure. But the Twins will have to play even better if they're going to beat the Yankees.

10th Split: 13-4

Overall Record: 86-76
Tied for 1st in AL Central

Previous splits: 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, 8-8, 9-8, 7-9, 7-9, 9-7, 9-7

Hmm, which one of these things is not like the others?

For 9/10ths of the season, the Twins were one of the most stubbornly .500 teams I've ever seen, never falling more than 6 games below or rising more than 3 games above the break-even mark. Whether it was holes in the lineup, weak starting pitching, or shaky bullpen work, the Twins' impressive strengths (Mauer, Span, Kubel) were never enough to do more than cancel out their glaring weaknesses.

But over the final 3 weeks of the season, everything came together. Orlando Cabrera scored in all but 1 game from the #2 spot. Delmon Young, Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto all hit over .300, providing consistent offense from the bottom of the order for the first time all year. Michael Cuddyer was having a solid year, but he found another gear, hitting 7 HR with 19 RBI over the last 17 games. Add that to the guys I already mentioned, and suddenly the Twins were putting up over 6 runs/game, failing to score at least 5 in only 5 of 17 games.

The starting pitching was good enough for that much run support. They were led, as they were in the first half, by Nick Blackburn, who pitched into the 7th inning in each of his last 4 starts, with a 1.65 ERA and 18/1 K/BB ratio. The bullpen was not so cozy, as big leads frequently turned into save situations, but most of the trouble came from middle relief allowing inherited runners to score. Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Ron Mahay, Matt Guerrier and Joe Nathan combined to allow 5 ER of their own over this split, and Jose Mijares had only allowed 1 before his final appearance on Saturday. So let's bring those guys in with the bases empty!

The Twins' defense committed 10 errors over this split - 4 in the ugly finale at Comerica last week. OC seems to let something get away from him almost every day at SS, and Brendan Harris had a terrible time with his limited opportunities at 3B. I'm impressed that Cuddyer has played so well at 1B, where he made several errors earlier in the year on Justin Morneau's off days. Overall, if the Twins can play an errorless game today, they'll finish tied with Toronto for the fewest E in the AL, and will have allowed just 39 unearned runs, a far cry from the 70 they yielded in 2008.

The Twins have lost just 4 times over their last 20 ball games, but 3 of those came at the hands of the Tigers. However, the Twins were 7-2 vs. the Tigers at the Dome this year, and have won 9 out 10 at home overall. The Twins have surged to the finish, the Tigers have sputtered. If Scott Baker can keep the Tigers in the yard, things should go well.

Bold Prediction: Today's game will not be the last the Twins play at the Metrodome.

The Playoffs Started Yesterday

After nearly 5 and a half months of mediocrity, the Twins have suddenly decided to be awesome. They've unleashed an 11-2 run, averaging 6.2 runs/game, and all without their All-Star, former MVP cleanup hitter. Thanks to Michael Cuddyer, who stepped into the infield and has hit .370 with 6 HR and 19 RBI in Morneau's absence, and also the bottom of the order, where Delmon Young and Matt Tolbert have taken advantage of everyday playing time by hitting over .300 for the month, joining Nick Punto in that respect. Couple that with continued strong play from Denard Span and Joe Mauer and solid contributions from Orlando Cabrera and Jason Kubel, and the Twins are slugging their opponents into submission.

It was apparent a couple of weeks ago that the Twins were going to have to take at least 5 out of 7 from Detroit this month in order to have a shot at the division title. That means that they have to win 3 out of 4 at Comerica Park this week. While splitting the series won't eliminate them, it will force them to lean rather heavily on White Sox to play a great series on the road. Not holding my breath there. So I'm thinking about this like it's a best-of-five playoff series, and the Twins have already lost game 1. Playoff teams bounce back from losing game 1 just about every year, so it's doable. Unfortunately for the Twins, they have to play all of the remaining games on the road.

The match-ups aren't terrible. On Wednesday and Thursday, the Twins send their #1 and #2 starters against Detroit's #4 and #5 guys. Nick Blackburn has big-game experience from last fall, and Brian Duensing has been money as a starter. If the Twins can at least split the first 2 games of the series, they'll be in good position to get wins in the last 2. One thing I hope they've learned from last weekend: take care of Gerald Laird - don't try to steal on him, and don't walk him. Just about every big inning the Tigers have had this year came when the terrible hitters at the bottom of their lineup got on base.

Every spring, I hope that the Twins will still be playing meaningful games the last week of September. As they have most every year this decade, the Twins have fulfilled my wish.

By the way, this is how big a Twins fan I am: I woke up this morning, turned on my computer, and thought, "Oh, yeah, the Vikings played yesterday. I wonder how they did..."

Patience and Perseverance

Twins 6, Tigers 2
Twins 14, Tigers 10 (13 innings)
Twins 6, Tigers 5

At last, a proper Dome stand. After going 2-2, 4-3 and 3-3 to open the season, the Twins were able to win 5 of 6 against Seattle and Detroit, and came within 2 innings of 6-0.

I will remember the first play of Tuesday night's game as the moment when I finally gave up on Delmon Young. It's possible to tolerate his absence of XBH and plate discipline while he's hitting close to .300, but not when he's also failing to make basic plays in the OF, like reading and catching Curtis Granderson's leadoff liner that sailed over his head for a 2B. Bert Blyleven charitably talked about how easy it is to lose the ball in the lights, but I don't think that's what happened. I think Young just misjudged it. Because he's a bad fielder. And he's not getting any better.

You think you've got a migraine, Delmon? Try watching yourself play. The Twins have a ton of OF between the Majors and AAA who can strike out 5 times as often as they walk and hit for minimal power. But most of them can at least catch the ball, and any of them would be more deserving of regular playing time than Young is right now. Take your time with your family this week, Delmon.

Fortunately, Slowey was able to pitch through that "hit" and another charged to him when Matt Tolbert exuberantly cut in front of Nick Punto on a chopper over the mound. Without those, he allowed only 6 H and 2 BB in 6 IP. The 2 BB doubled his season high, which I think was just an indication that plate umpire Ed Rapuano had way too tight of a zone.

That cut both ways, though, and the Twins took advantage of it by drawing another 7 BB against the Tigers' pitchers. The Twins have done well so far against Armando Galarraga. He's one of those pitchers who doesn't actually throw many strikes, but rather hopes that the movement of his pitches on the margins will induce swings out of the zone. If a hitter comes to the plate with the mentality that they're going to take a couple of strikes, they will usually find themselves ahead in the count, especially if the ump is conservative. Once there, they can pick out a pitch to drive.

The difference between a fly to the wall in LF and a HR can be as little as a foot or two - less than 1% of the total distance from home plate. Joe Mauer has that extra 1% this year, and because of it he's already hit nearly as many HR (4) in 35 AB as he had in his first 300 AB (5) last season. He would have had 5, in fact, had LF Clete Thomas not pulled his first-inning drive back onto the field. Mauer simply hit the ball harder in his next AB, getting the ball to nearly the same spot too fast for Thomas to make a leap.

Wednesday night's marathon was directly caused by plate umpire Paul Schrieber's even tighter strike zone. After one trip through the order (during which Glen Perkins needed to throw just 24 pitches), the Tigers must have noticed that Schrieber wasn't calling anything on the corners, so why were they swinging so early in the count? Perkins, who had walked just 8 batters in his first 6 starts, suddenly walked the bases loaded, where 2 runs could come in on a 2-out bouncer up the middle. (A better throw to the plate from Matt Tolbert, who short-hopped Mike Redmond, might have ended the inning with only one run scoring, saving us all a lot of trouble.) In the 5th, Granderson led off with a BB, stole 2nd, and eventually scored on a WP.

The bullpen has to burst into flames at least once every series, and this was the night. Luis Ayala couldn't retire the first 2 batters of the 7th, so in came Matt Guerrier, and Miguel Cabrera immediately took him deep to put the Tigers ahead. To their credit, the rest of the staff managed to put up zeroes until the 13th, when poor Jesse Crain was duped into balking by a feinted SB attempt by Granderson from 3B just as Crain was beginning his windup.

I said that the offense would have to carry the Twins through this next stretch of games. Every time the pitchers put the team behind, there was the offense to answer. 7 more BB. A couple of SF. A 2-run 3B from Denard Span after the Tigers had taken the lead in the top of the 6th. A 2-run, PH HR from Jason Kubel to tie the game in the 8th. With the Tigers' 'pen beleaguered from 2 straight short starts, Jim Leyland was forced to ride Brandon Lyon to the end of the game, though it would end on his 60th pitch.

I questioned whether giving up Span to put PR Nick Punto into scoring position for Matt Tolbert was a wise move, but Tolbert promptly delivered the game-tying single. 2 more BB filled the sacks for Joe Crede, who smashed a hanging slider into the LF seats for an emphatic, walk-off comeback win.

With Justin Verlander in the midst of a hot streak and both bullpens decimated, the game plan in the finale had to be to get as many innings as possible out of Scott Baker while making Verlander throw as many pitches as possible. Baker delivered by facing the minimum through 5 IP, but the 6th started with a broken-bat bloop single and a hit-and-run single to put runners at the corners with nobody out. Baker struck out the next man and got Granderson to pop up, but couldn't escape the jam when the next pitch was lined just over the glove of Jason Kubel in LF. Luckily, it hopped the fence for a ground-rule double, allowing only one run to score. Unluckily, Magglio Ordonez' grounder sneaked into CF scoring 2 more. Then Cabrera whacked another ground-rule double, and Clete Thomas went down to ground a shin-high curveball into CF for 2 more runs.

Suddenly down 5-0, and with Verlander striking out everyone in sight, it looked like the game was over. But Verlander was already approaching 100 pitches, and though he set his career high for K to start the 7th, Brian Buscher lined a single and Nick Punto drew a walk. With Verlander at 122 pitches and a succession of LH batters coming up, Leyland went to LOOGY Bobby Seay. Span greeted him with a single to load the bases, and Tolbert walked, forcing in a run. Joe Mauer grounded into an RBI FC. Justin Morneau pulled the first pitch into RF for an RBI single, then Jason Kubel raked a ground-rule 2B to right-center to bring the Twins within 1. Zach Miner came in, walked Michael Cuddyer, then gave up a bloop single to Crede to put the Twins ahead.

Craig Breslow earned his first win in his best appearance of the year: 1.2 scoreless IP with 0 BB. Guerrier and Nathan got the final 4 outs, and the Twins at last won a day game.

The selectiveness the Twins showed over this home stand will serve them well as they face the Yankees and White Sox on the road. They might need to keep scoring 6 R/G to be successful. I'm encouraged - things have to go better than they went at the old Yankee Stadium, right?

Beginnings of Big Innings

Twins 7, Tigers 2
Tigers 9, Twins 0
Each team won a game in this short series, thanks mainly to one unruly, bat-around inning.

The Twins took game 1 on the strength of a 5-run 7th, turning a pitcher's duel into a solid Twins lead in the span of 4 hitters. Justin Morneau led off with a grounder through the right side. The key pitch of the game came to the next batter, Jason Kubel. With the count 2-2, Tigers starter Edwin Jackson delivered a fastball that narrowly missed the outside corner for ball 3. Another umpire might have called Kubel out there, and I wouldn't have complained if he had. The next three pitches went: ball 4, RBI 2B, 2-run 3B, and Mr. Jackson was headed for the shower, his QS start turned into 5 ER and a loss - exactly what had happened to Scott Baker the day before.

Brandon Lyon came in and threw 2 pitches: the first hit Delmon Young, the second was bunted by Nick Punto in an attempted safety squeeze. I don't think much of Miguel Cabrera as a defender, but he made a good play on the bunt, charging toward the mound and throwing a strike to the plate to get Cuddyer by a step. If Cabrera doesn't come up with that ball, I think Punto probably has an infield hit.

A LHP came in, and Denard Span picked up his 2nd IF hit of the game thanks to a generous scoring ruling on a ball that Adam Everett probably should have fielded. (I was delighted to see Span swing at the 2-strike pitch that resulted in his first IF hit leading off the game - that's the pitch that he has so often taken for strike 3. Even though it sawed him off, I'm glad to see him recognize that it's a pitch he needs to offer at.) Alexi Casilla finally had something drop in, and Punto's astute read on the flight of the ball/positioning of LF Carlos Guillen enabled him to score from 2nd just a few feet behind Young coming in from 3rd. Joe Mauer and Morneau were retired, but the game was all but out of reach, with Francisco Liriano dealing into the 8th inning.

Liriano may still be a bit short of his old velocity, but his stuff looks terrific to me. Everything he threw was breaking sharply downward. He struck out 9 in 7.1 IP and allowed only 4 H, though 1 of those was a HR. I hope everyone can recognize the difference between the pitch that resulted in the HR hit by Cabrera and those that Scott Baker has given up this year. Liriano threw him a pitch down and in that Cabrera simply golfed out of the park - nothing a pitcher can do about that.

For the Tigers tonight, the 2nd-inning damage was all done after 2 were out. Nick Blackburn, who had issued a 4-pitch walk to the hacktastic Placido Polanco in the 1st, managed to issue another to catcher Gerald Laird, who was 1 for his last 21 coming into the game. Obviously a night of poor command for Blackburn - the 0-2 pitch to Clete Thomas following the Polanco BB was up and over the plate, right on the heels of a pitch down and away that had resulted in a swing and a miss. He continued to miss his spots, though the Tigers had the benefit of both exquisite placement of their hits and ugly defense from the Twins.

After Laird's BB, Ramon Santiago drove him in with an RBI double into the RF corner on a liner that was just out of Morneau's reach. Casilla looked unprepared to throw home when he received Michael Cuddyer's throw from the wall. Then Josh Anderson blooped a ball into LF just out of Young's reach for an RBI single; the ball bounced past Young for an error allowing Anderson to go to 2nd. Polanco hit a grounder up the middle that Casilla could only knock down for what I thought was an exceedingly tough error, particularly when compared to the error that Everett avoided the previous night. (The error on Joe Crede was pretty tough, too.) Then Thomas hit a ball just close enough in front of Cuddyer to induce a dive; it got past him to the wall for a 2-run 3B.

With Cabrera coming up and 2 bases open, I would have expected the Twins to pitch around him, if not put him on. After all, he's hitting about .400, and the next batter, Curtis Granderson, was down around .260. Your chances are better with Granderson, even if he is a lefty. But they pitched to Cabrera, and he promptly ripped an RBI single to left. Granderson was retired for the final out of the inning.

It felt like the Twins were sleep-walking through this game. Except for Kubel - maybe it helped that he didn't have to play in the field. R.A. Dickey finally had a scoreless outing, Jesse Crain made a solid return to the mound, and Craig Breslow only walked 1 guy. Pretty good night for the bullpen, I guess.

On to Baltimore...

2009 AL Central Preview

Chicago White Sox
2008 Record: 89-74

You've got to be a little lucky to outplay your projections, and the Sox certainly had their share of good breaks in 2008, at least until Carlos Quentin's bad break late in the season. They were able to turn numerous losses into victories with late-inning HR. Getting exactly what you need exactly when you need it that often is not something that can be expected to be repeated. They'll keep hitting HR in the Cell, but their lineup is starting to get pretty long in the tooth, with 4 middle-of-the-order bats beginning the season at age 32 or older. Outside of Quentin and Jim Thome, there isn't a lot of OBP in their order, so they figure to have trouble scoring when the ball doesn't go over the fence.

Where they're really going to suffer is in run prevention. Subtracting Joe Crede and Orlando Cabrera leaves them with one of the weakest all-around defenses in the league - a lot of balls are going to slip through the infield or drop into the outfield. Add to that a weak rotation after Mark Buehrle and John Danks - Gavin Floyd is primed to regress, and Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon haven't been good since 2005 and have since been injured - and I think the Sox are a team that can expect to allow more runs than they score in 2009.

Minnesota Twins
2008 Record: 88-75
The Twins roster I've summarized over the last few days is essentially the same as that which finished the 2008 season, minus Joe Mauer for the first few weeks (we hope that's all it is). My argument all winter long has been that that roster should be capable of matching their run differential from last season. Though the offense will certainly be less efficient with RISP, I expect the drop in total runs to be offset somewhat by an increase in HR from 1B, 3B, and all 3 OF positions. In other words, the Twins will be better at scoring runs when they don't have someone in scoring position. With 3 of Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, Alexi Casilla and Nick Punto likely in the lineup on any given day, the Twins should continue to rack up large numbers of sacrifices, bunt hits, and steals, putting them in position to score, as they often did last year, without the benefit of a well-hit ball. I see the Twins scoring about 50 fewer runs.

They should be able to make up those 50 runs with improved pitching and defense. Last year's staff saw 361.1 IP (nearly 25% of its total IP) given to Brian Bass, Livan Hernandez, Boof Bonser, Juan Rincon and Eddie Guardado, while suffering the fatal late-season collapse of the previously reliable Matt Guerrier. The remainder of the staff did quite well, and those are the ones who will be relied upon in 2009, with Guerrier likely returning to form. Most importantly, the young rotation, brimming with upside, should get a larger proportion of the total IP this season, leaving fewer innings in the hands of a suspect bullpen. Add to that a defense that should be much better than what the Twins brought to the field in 2008 - they allowed by far the most errors and unearned runs of Gardy's tenure, something that looks to have been addressed this spring - and the Twins shouldn't have any trouble keeping their total runs allowed around 700. They'll need some breaks to win 90, but it will be a disappointment if they don't finish with at least 85 wins.

Cleveland Indians
2008 Record: 81-81
One of the luckiest teams in 2007, the wheel of fortune spun the other way on the Tribe in 2008. They lost several key players to injuries/ineffectiveness and managed to finish just .500 despite a +44 run differential. Retaining their offensive numbers is certainly possible, and they could exceed them with bounce-back years from Victor Martinez and, especially, Travis Hafner. They'll also have to maintain the breakout performances they got from Shin-Soo Choo and Kelley Shoppach. Grady Sizemore is awesome, Asdrubal Cabrera should be better and Mark DeRosa is a nice addition to their lineup. This ought to be the best offensive team in the division.

They should have no such hopes for the defensive half-innings. Cliff Lee has never had consecutive good seasons, Fausto Carmona has had one good season, and the rest of their rotation features fringe talents and reclamation projects. Their bullpen should be rock solid, especially if Kerry Wood holds together. Defensively, they don't look all that strong in the corners, and they insist on beginning the season with a mis-aligned IF of Jhonny Peralta at SS, Cabrera at 2B and DeRosa at 3B. Though they should certainly win more games in 2009, there are so many ifs with this team, I'm skeptical that they'll be a lot better than last year.

Kansas City Royals
2008 Record: 75-87
The Royals have seen their record improve by about 6 games in each of the last 3 seasons, meaning that they're poised to finish .500 this year if they maintain the trend. Slow-starting prospects Billy Butler and Alex Gordon ought to start reaching their potential about now, which should provide a bit of a jolt to what has perennially been a punchless offense. New additions Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp could provide upgrades in production from CF and 1B. However, top to bottom, there isn't a lot of OBP or deep counts, letting opposing pitchers off the hook with a lot of quick AB.

Gil Meche and Zach Greinke will be a solid top of the rotation, and Juan Cruz and Joakim Soria are as strong a setup/closer combination as there is in baseball. However, the back of the rotation is almost laughably bad, and there are some dicey options in the bullpen in Kyle Farnsworth and Jamie Wright. The Royals are only about half of what they need to be contenders right now, even in an especially weak division. They'll need a lot of things to go right to make the .500 mark.

Detroit Tigers
2008 Record: 74-88
Was there a bigger disappointment in baseball last year than the Tigers? Their enormous investments in Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis and Edgar Renteria not only failed to take the Tigers to the next level, they actually created a backslide as a thinned minor league talent pool was unable to support an aging, injury-prone roster. This offseason they've opted to invest what limited funds they have available in upgrading their defense, but at the expense of offense. There are still quality hitters at the top of the lineup in Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez, but only two of those guys are on the happy side of 33. Adam Everett, Gerald Laird and Brandon Inge aren't going to hit a lick.

The defensive improvements the Tigers made are real, and should help their pitchers out a lot, particularly on the left side of the field. On the right side, the range is limited. The real problem with the Tigers is their pitching. I'm skeptical that Armando Galarraga can regain his first-half success from last year, which makes the rotation pretty thin after Justin Verlander - and how much can they even count on him? As for the bullpen, the guy they brought in to be the closer, Brandon Lyon, was too hittable, so they gave the job to Fernando Rodney, who walks about 4.5 batters/9 IP. Juan Rincon made their bullpen. That defense is going to be busy.

I won't predict a winner for the Central this year - in a division so evenly matched I might as well guess which team I think will be lucky. All things being equal, I think it will come down to the Indians and Twins in September, with the other three teams striving for the 81-win mark.

Fit To Be Tied

Despite the best efforts of Jim Leyland and Freddie Garcia, the injury-depleted Tigers lineup couldn't do much against a short-rested Gavin Floyd, and when Garcia had to leave the game with a shoulder strain after 5+ innings, the Tigers showed why they're a last place team. In case you missed it, the sequence went: walk, stolen base, (new pitcher), wild pitch, wild pitch walk tying run scored, (new pitcher) wild pitch, strikeout, intentional walk, unintentional walk, (new pitcher) grand slam. 4 pitchers combined to give up 5 ER on 1 H, 4 BB and 3 WP in 1/3 of an inning. The first White Sox run came from walk, walk, ground-ball single. The last two came from IF hit, stolen base, double, wild pitch, fielding error. All together, the Sox got 8 R on 6 H, 6 BB, 4 WP and an error. 5 of the 6 batters who walked came around to score.

So the Twins and White Sox wind up with identical records through 162 games - fitting, since neither was able to separated from the other by more than a couple games for most of the season - and will meet tonight for 1 game to decide the division. The teams have identical home/road splits as well, which is a bad break for the Twins, since the coin flip determined that this game would be played in Chicago, where the Sox are 53-28. I'll preview the game in a minute, but first I have to take a minute to look back.

Tied.

That means 1 game would have made tonight unnecessary. Any loss turned into a win. One better AB, one better bounce. I'm sure everyone can think of several games that the Twins should have won this season. My dad is partial to the extra-inning loss in Cleveland 2 weeks ago that I commented on yesterday. Here's my favorite:

August 10th in KC. Scott Baker pitches 7 strong innings, handing a 4-2 lead to the bullpen. In steps Matt Guerrier, in the early stages of his collapse, to allow 2 hits and only one out. In comes Dennys Reyes to face consecutive lefties. He throws a wild pitch to allow one run to score, but induces easy ground balls from each batter he faces. The first advances the tying run to 3rd. The second is a routine two-hopper to short, not too hard, not too soft. Adam Everett fields it cleanly, sets his feet, and throws too high to first base, forcing Mike Lamb (Justin Morneau was the DH that day) to leap off the bag to catch the ball. Safe at first, the tying run scores, and the Twins go on to lose 5-4 in 12 innings.

How about another one? September 3rd in Toronto. The Twins lead 3-2 with 2 out in the bottom of the 9th and a runner on 1st. Joe Nathan is battling Toronto wonder-prospect Travis Snider, who works the count to 3-2 before lining the ball into right-center. There is no outfielder in sight, and with the runner going, a run seems possible. But the Twins have inserted September call-up Jason Pridie into RF, and he is speedy enough to cut the ball off - he even rounds it and points his hips toward the infield. If he just picks the ball up off the Sky Dome field turf, the runner stops at 3rd. Instead, the ball clanged off the heal of his glove, allowing the tying run to score. Nathan struck the next batter out. The Twins went on to lose in 11 innings.

I mention these two games because so many of the little things that cause you to lose baseball games aren't really within your control. If only he'd made a better pitch, if only he'd laid off that slider in the dirt, if only Sizemore's HR off the foul pole had hooked a bit more. Well, those things don't always work out, but sometimes they do. It usually evens out over 162 games. But errors are different. You don't have to wish the ball was pitched or hit any differently. All a MLB fielder had to do was make a routine play, and the tying run would never have scored. I like the KC example better because Pridie was making his MLB debut, and did have to run a long way to cut off the ball. Everett is a veteran of many seasons, and the ball was hit right to him, and he didn't have to rush. He just blew it.

And so, thanks to that (or whatever your favorite missed opportunity happens to be), the Twins play tonight. I guess it's fitting that they need to win on the road to keep their season alive, after so many of their failures happened away from home. All 6 of Nathan's blown saves, most of which were helped along by poor defense. Egregious sweeps by the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays and White Sox. That 4-game Sox sweep in early June was probably the low point of the season for the Twins. Coming into the series, they were 2-3 vs. the Sox in Chicago. They'll have to make up for their failure in that series by playing well tonight.

The pitching matchup is about as favorable as it could be. The Twins have terrific career numbers vs. John Danks, and he's going to be working on short rest. Apart from Francisco Liriano (who would be on short rest), Nick Blackburn is the least likely of the Twins' starters to allow a HR, and the most likely to induce grounders. On a night when the wind could be blowing out against the most prolific HR team in the league, that's a good thing.

My Keys to the Game:

1. Keep it in the Yard
The way they've been swinging the bats lately, I seriously doubt that the White Sox will be able to score more than a couple of runs without help from the long ball.

2. No Free Passes
Blackburn is also unlikely to allow a lot of walks, but he gives up a high enough BAA that he'd better not give away any bases. Again, the way the Sox have been swinging lately, I can't see them stringing enough hits together to score more than a couple of runs.

3. Catch the Ball
This game wouldn't be happening if the Twins had played their typical solid defense this year. Just for one night, let's make all the plays - no extra bases, no extra outs. If the Sox have to earn every base, I can't see them scoring more than a couple of runs.

4. Run Like Hell
The Twins have a huge speed advantage over the Sox. This will hopefully help them cut off balls in the gaps. But they also need to pressure the White Sox on defense. With Crede out, they're shaky at the corner IF and old and slow in the OF, and their catcher is one of the easiest to run on in all of baseball. Bunt, steal, hit and run, go first-to-third - run, run, run.

5. Set the Table
To take advantage of their speed, the Twins' speed guys will have to get on. Wouldn't it be great to have another night like last Thursday, when Carlos Gomez, Denard Span and Alexi Casilla went 9-14 with a walk?

6. Feast
Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Michael Cuddyer all have monster career numbers vs. Danks. When they come up with men on, they have to get hits. Morneau, in particular, needs to atone for flat last week of the season and see if he can't steal back the AL RBI title.

It's funny how the Twins and White Sox play such completely different offensive styles, yet accumulated the same record. In addition to everything else at stake tonight, this game is a mini-referendum on Ty Cobb-style baseball vs. Babe Ruth-style: the speedy little singles hitters vs. the big, slow, boppers. I know which side I'd like to see prevail.

Falling Fast

Twins 10, Tigers 2
Tigers 6, Twins 4
Tigers 7, Twins 5

Coming home does not seem to have solved the Twins' problems. The bullpen showed it is just as capable of throwing away an 8th inning lead in MN as on the road. After a brilliant August, Glen Perkins had his second straight shaky start in September. The Twins are just 1-5 in their first week of this month, and must turn things around immediately if they are to keep pace with the White Sox.

On a positive note, Francisco Liriano was awesome on Friday night. His slider was working, and he wasn't afraid to use it. The velocity of his pitches is still well short of his 2006 stuff, but he isn't too much less effective for it. Scott Baker was also terrific in his start. Ultimately, too many walks, but he got the Twins into the 8th inning with only 2 R allowed, and the bullpen should have been able to take it from there. Also, a good effort by the top of the order, as Denard Span reached in 7 of 15 plate appearances and scored 5 R, Alexi Casilla reached in 7 of 14 PAs and scored twice, and Joe Mauer reached in 7 of 14 PAs, scoring 3 times.

Unfortunately, Mauer could not come up with the big hit with runners on base. Justin Morneau drove in 8 R over the weekend, but failed to drive in any on Saturday, despite batting 3 times with runners on 3rd, including twice with the bases loaded. Dennys Reyes was the right guy to bring in against Curtis Granderson on Saturday, but he made perhaps his worst pitch of the season, hanging a 1-1 slider that Granderson blasted for the game-tying HR. Had Reyes gotten Granderson out, I might have liked to see Joe Nathan come on to face the heart of the Tigers' order. But, with the game tied already, might as well bring in Matt Guerrier, who had great lifetime numbers against all those guys. Naturally, he didn't retire any of them and continued his second-half implosion.

After Nick Punto reached with a marvelous AB leading off the 9th on Saturday, I couldn't believe that Gardy didn't pinch-hit for Carlos Gomez. He's been doing it with great frequency over the past couple of weeks, and he had the AAA batting champ on his bench, with the speedy Jason Pridie available to pinch-run and take over in CF should Randy Ruiz reach. Instead, Gardy left his most K-prone hitter in there, and Gomez promptly struck out on three pitches. That was tantamount to giving away 1 of the Twins' final 3 outs.

The Twins are 2 games behind where I'd hoped they'd be after 6 September games. That makes this upcoming series with KC a must-sweep. The Twins must also hope that the Blue Jays continue their inspired play vs. the White Sox. It's still not too much to ask that the Twins could be within 2 games of the White Sox when they face each other the last week of the season, but the margin for error has pretty much evaporated over the past 2 weeks. When they do face the White Sox, they certainly must play better than they just did against the Tigers.

The Break

My wife switched to a dairy-free diet on Saturday, and the baby has been quiet at night ever since. I've been staying up late anyway, supervising the baby while watching DVDs on the computer, usually, and then sleeping in so late that it's afternoon before I get up from the breakfast table. Not a recipe for productivity - luckily, I'm not working for anybody right now. I followed the Twins and their representatives over the past few days, and these are my thoughts:

Tigers 4, Twins 2

You know it's probably not your day when the ump blows a call at first base, awarding the Tigers a baserunner and charging Brian Buscher with an error that neither deserved, and then the next guy up hits his first big-league HR. Still, the Twins were, once again, in the game all day, thanks to another marvelous outing from Nick Blackburn. 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 108 pitches. He's given the Twins 6+ IP and 2 or fewer ER in 5 of his last 6 starts. What a wonderfully reliable contribution to be getting from the #4 starter.

The big positive that came out of this game was that Brian Bass, in conjunction with his other outings last week, revealed himself to be the one who should be sent down to AAA. Glad we don't have to wonder about that anymore.

The Twins didn't quite finish off the Tigers, but it was a great series for them, and a solid road trip at 3-4. They are well positioned heading into the last 2.5 months.

Justin Morneau 5 (22), Josh Hamilton 3 (35)

I was glad to see Morneau willing to jump back on the horse and try the HR derby again. I know he was concerned that it had fouled up his stroke last summer, but this year, with his power numbers down, it may just be the shot in the arm he needs to start knocking them out at his 1st-half '07 rate. And it was good to see that he acquitted himself well, out-hitting every other competitor (with one notable exception) and earning a trip to the final.

Obviously, the preposterous power display put on by Josh Hamilton was unforgettable. I hope the Twins' pitchers will find a way to keep him in the yard this weekend (Livan is only a little younger than Hamilton's BP pitcher). But I have to give Morneau a ton of credit for putting that out of his mind when it was his turn to hit first, putting up 5 dingers in what would prove to be his low round (still better than his lone round last year). Not surprisingly, Hamilton had shot his wad in the first round, and couldn't match Morneau.

I was a bit chagrined to read some of the commentary afterwards, dismissing Morneau entirely, as though his 22 HR performance was an embarrassment. I wonder if a star from Boston or NY would have been written off so quickly. Anyway, Morneau accepted his victory with grace, and was a credit to the Twins on Monday night.

AL 4, NL 3 (15 innings)

Joe Mauer, Joe Nathan, and Morneau were a credit to the Twins on Tuesday night as well. Morneau, though not a starter, wound up with 5 PAs to Mauer's 2, and went 2-4, 2B, BB, 2 R, including the game-winner in the 15th. He was likely the runner-up to JD Drew for MVP of the game.

Mauer went 1-1 with a BB before being lifted for Jason Varitek. Was that move cermonial? Varitek clearly didn't belong on the team, and was replaced by Dioner Navarro of the Rays without even taking an AB. Navarro went 1-4 with a BB and 2 K, and made a costly throwing error on a steal attempt in the 8th that enabled the NL to score their 3rd run with a SF. Here's where it's too bad Mauer was the starter - had he been brought in off the bench, he would have had some opportunities to win the game late. Of course, with his accurate arm behind the plate, the game probably would have been over in regulation anyway.

For all the talk of whether Johnathan Papelbon or Mariano Rivera should get the 9th inning, the only AL pitcher who had an unblemished line on the night was Nathan. He retired the 3 men he faced on 8 pitches, including a strikeout. Francisco Rodriguez got one out with his 8 pitches, including a walk. What a great deal the Twins have with Nathan on the team for years to come!

Moves?

The Adrian Beltre rumors persist. He is a fine defensive 3B, with awesome splits vs. LHP, and, coming from Seattle, should be available for pennies on the dollar. He would be an upgrade from Brendan Harris without a doubt.

One of the names I saw as being potentially on the block that intrigued me was Jon Rauch of the Nationals. He began the season as a set-up man, but had to take over the closer role when Chad Cordero got hurt. He's put up some very strong numbers: 2.85 ERA, 43 K/7 BB, 4 HR in 47 IP. He could be an answer for the Twins in the 8th inning. He's under contract through 2010, so he wouldn't be just a rent-a-player, though the Twins would certainly have to give up something decent to get him. I haven't heard that the Twins are specifically interested in him, but he's the sort of player they're going to need down the stretch.

My Strange Life

Twins 6, Tigers 5

It's about 4:45 AM as I write this. I tend to sleep in 2 hour chunks now. Tonight it seems to have more to do with the throbbing of my surgically repaired knee than with our newborn baby, who's been blessedly quiet for the first night of her life.

Adding to my discomfort is the remnant of a paranoid dream I was having, in which I was the property of the Chicago Cubs, and the last piece they needed to fill out their championship roster. There were Cubs fans everywhere outside my room and window, wishing for my knee to recover faster. Not in a kind-hearted," we care about his health" kind of way, but in a petulant, "he'd better not screw this up for us" way. Wham's "Everything She Wants," which was playing in the waiting room of the physical therapist's office the other day, is the relentless soundtrack of this fantasy. "Somebody tell me why I work so hard for them!"

Anyway, it seemed like a good time to get out the laptop and talk about yesterday's game, which was blacked out on MLB.TV even though it was not the featured game on our local Fox affiliate. From what I heard, it went quite well for Scott Baker. He's beginning to build up some nice career numbers vs. the Tigers, about 1 ER lower than his career ERA. Good to be good against a division rival. It messed up my fantasy numbers to have him start the 8th, but with his pitch count at just 96 and the way the bullpen has been used over the last few days, Gardy had to try to get as many outs from him as possible. The 'pen bent a little, but once again held the lead.

After he struck out the side in the 9th, I thought it was a good time to check on Joe Nathan's K/9 rate for the season. It's 10.44, up from 9.67 last year. No signs of decline from him yet, to say the least.

I was sorry to see Nick Punto scratched from the game - he's been playing so well at SS - but Brendan Harris capably filled in. He also contributed the way you love to see a platoon guy do, beating up LHP Nate Robertson for 3 H, HR, 3 RBI. His 2 singles came with RISP and 2 outs, the first real damage the Twins have done in that situation since early in the game on Thursday. His overall splits vs. LHP still aren't very impressive, but hopefully, he can continue to be effective in this role. Not that a trade for someone like Adrian Beltre (5th in the league in BA vs. LHP, good zone rating) wouldn't be a welcome addition.

Speaking of additions, it's disheartening to keep seeing things like this. Yes, Francisco Liriano had a little hiccup a few starts ago, meaning he's only been awesome in like 9 of his last 11 starts. Livan Hernandez had a little hiccup a few starts ago as well, but in the other direction. Meaning he's been bad in 7 of his last 10 starts. But we don't have a spot for Liriano right now. Really?

And this. Why does everybody think Carlos Gomez is going to wake up tomorrow and stop being a bad hitter? It took Denard Span 2 extra years in the minors to get the point where he is. Why does Gomez get so much license?

In spite of their shortcomings, I'm really pleased with the way the Twins have responded to a disappointing series in Boston. Heading off to a 7-game road trip vs. the Red Sox and Tigers, I would have been pleased to see the Twins win 3, and they've done that. 2 of their 3 losses have been by just 1 run. They continue to hang with the best in the league. If they can win this afternoon and sweep the series, they have a chance to undo what they did against the Tigers back in April. Then, shaky bullpen play let the Tigers off the mat from their abysmal start, and began their long march back to the happy side of .500. With a sweep of this 4-game series, the Twins have an opportunity to deliver the knockout blow to their division rivals: down 8 games to the White Sox and Twins with just 68 left to play, I think the Tigers would have to start to accept that they won't be able to make the playoffs this year. Here's hoping we can make it a 2-team race!

I Rest My Case

Twins 3, Tigers 2

On Thursday night, Francisco Liriano had his 3rd great start in a row: 7 IP, 0 R, 3 H, BB, 8 K. Over those three starts, he's gone 20 scoreless innings, allowing 10 H and 3 BB with 24 K. That got a lot of people talking about bringing him up after the break, and re-shuffling the rotation to accommodate him.

Some proposed moving Glen Perkins to the bullpen. I suppose he's been the least reliable of the young starters in a lot of respects: coming into Friday's game he had the highest ERA (4.31) and WHIP (1.48). He hasn't been able to put together as many zero or one-run outings as the rest of the group. But on the other hand, he just about always gives the team 6 IP and 3 or fewer ER. Not spectacular, but certainly quality.

To suggest that Perkins should lose his spot in the rotation while Livan Hernandez (5.44 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) retains his is absurd on its face. Livan also averages about 6 IP/start, but has allowed more than 3 ER oh so many more times than Perkins has. Livan was supposed to eat innings and help the young pitchers. Now that the young pitchers are all out-performing him, I think it's time to say "thanks" and move on.

Anyway, Perkins' outing tonight should dispel any thoughts of taking his rotation spot away. For the second time in 2 weeks, he shut down one of the most productive lineups in the AL, and one that has been particularly hard on LHP. 6.2 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K, and just 84 pitches, so he could have continued into the 8th inning had the situation been a bit different. But with the go-ahead run on base and Carlos Guillen (5 for 10 lifetime vs. Perkins) at the plate, going to the 'pen there was the right thing to do. Guillen gave Jesse Crain's 1-2 pitch a ride, but Comerica Park is deep, and Carlos Gomez can go get it.

Perkins appears to be a slow starter, allowing a disproportionate number of base-runners in the early innings. But he seems to have already learned how to work with the stuff he has, and he's having consistent success. I think he's the 4th or 5th starter, but I'm totally satisfied with what he's bringing to the team right now. I mean, when he's pitching, I feel like the Twins are going to be in the game in the late innings, whether the offense is cooking or not.

The offense was not cooking last night, at least not in the way we're used to. For the second straight game, the Twins managed to find a way to win despite doing jack squat with RISP. Tonight, the runs came on a double from Nick Punto (special assist to RF Matt Joyce for his Jeter-esque jump throw back to the IF from the gap - might want to just set your feet next time, dude) and SF from Punto and Delmon Young. I'm glad Young has had a productive out in each game so far, because, otherwise, he looks like he's regressed to his April form (0-10, 2 K). Joe Mauer struck out twice in this game - once on a 3-2 pitch that he should have known was going to be called a strike - and overall looked tired despite sitting out most of the game yesterday.

Though the Twins mustered just 8 H, they managed to draw another 7 BB, giving themselves plenty of base-runners to move around and drive in with outs. By the way, through the first 10 games of this month, the Twins are leading the AL in OBP with a mark of around .400 - who would have guessed that would be possible back in April? Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel, despite combining to go 1-10 with 4 K, also drew 5 BB.

And then there are the guys at the bottom of the lineup, who have been reaching base at a preposterous clip over the last few games. Nick Punto wound up 1-2 with a BB, SF, 2 RBI, and personally saw 27 of the 177 pitches (15%) thrown by the Tigers' pitchers. And Denard Span was finally retired when he lined to CF in his 2nd AB, but still finished 1-3 with a BB.

I want to call special attention to that BB, because I think it summarizes the Span vs. Gomez debate I've been having all season quite elegantly. With a runner on 2nd and 2 out in the 6th, Span was intentionally walked in order to get to Gomez. Jim Leyland is a smart guy - he knows that Span has figured out how to hit and Gomez hasn't. How fortunate he was that Gomez came up 5 times to Span's 4, that Gomez hits behind Span and Punto and can bail his pitcher out of the jams that those two create.

Gomez finished 0-5 with 3 K, and is 0 for his last 19 with 7 K. But I don't even care about that - small sample size and all. I'm concerned about the large sample size, the one that encompasses 87 games and 370 ABs, the one that shows Gomez to be a .257/.291/.357 hitter, 2nd in the league in strikeouts. That .648 OPS matches Punto's career mark. Leading off? Why? Why throw away that extra AB every day? This isn't a slump, this isn't a fluke - this is how good (or not good) a hitter he is right now. Has he learned anything? Has he gotten better as the season has gone along?

The Twins need to do what they've done with so many of their promising young pitchers over the years: send him back to Rochester to fine-tune his game. If he'd just learn not to swing at balls, as Span has done, he'd be a fantastic player. But it took Span quite a long time to get to that point, and it will probably take Gomez a long time, too. This shouldn't concern anybody - Gomez brings a lot defensively to CF, but Span brings about as much. The Twins will simply be a better team with Gomez out of the lineup once Cuddyer comes back. And it will be the best thing for Gomez' development to go back to the minors and work this stuff out.