Home Record: 49-33
Away Record: 38-43
1st Half: 41-40
2nd Half: 46-36
Overall Record: 87-76, AL Central Champions
A lot of people had the Twins pegged for a big drop-off in wins this year. They pointed to the fact that the offense in 2008 was largely based on an unsustainably high BA with RISP. While I agreed that those numbers would regress, I felt that the loss in runs would be largely mitigated by an increase in HR. That, combined with a maturing starting staff and far more sure-handed defense, would keep the Twins' run differential similar to 2008, and therefore propel them to 85 or so wins, enough to compete to the very end in a rather weak division.
I had the record pretty well pegged, but they took a different route to get there than I expected. Here's what went wrong:
1. What? We Only Have 7 Weeks of Spring Training?
The disruption of the World Baseball Classic prompted Spring Training to start a few days earlier and end a week later than usual. Given all that extra time to prepare, I expected the Twins' players to be in mid-season form from opening day. A handful were: Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn, Jose Morales, Denard Span, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel. But the rest of the roster had humongous holes in their game in April: Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey couldn't keep the ball in the yard, Jesse Crain and Craig Breslow couldn't throw strikes, and Joe Crede was the only other position player to crack a .700 OPS. But, thanks to bullpen implosions by the Mariners and Angels, the Twins were able to escape the first month with a .500 record.
2. Aren't There Supposed to Be 9 Hitters in the Lineup?
The ridiculously awesome Joe Mauer returned to the lineup on May 1, and Michael Cuddyer snapped out of his April funk to be better than he's ever been the rest of the season. Those 2 joined Span, Morneau and Kubel in consistently strong contributions. That's 5 good hitters. Even though he had a lousy BA and OBP, Joe Crede provided enough power (15 HR, 16 2B, 48 RBI) in 60% of the season that I'll throw him in there, too. So 6 good hitters, when Crede was healthy. But the other 3 lineup spots, 2B/#2, LF/#8 and SS/#9 were appallingly bad, struggling for most of the season to hit even .200, avoid making outs more than 70% of the time, and provide any XBH. Even replacement level production from those spots over the full season probably would have brought the Twins over 90 wins.
3. You Have a Pulse, Right? Wanna Pitch for the Twins?
The Twins set a dubious club record in 2009: Most Pitchers Used in a Season. 24 different players took the mound this season, and only 9 were able to best the AL ERA average (4.45) while in a Twins uniform. Lengthy DL stays by 3/5 of the starting rotation certainly didn't help, but ineffectiveness was as much a reason for the multitude of arms as anything. Breslow and Crain were demoted to AAA, Francisco Liriano was sent to the 'pen. A revolving door of Rochester pitchers were invited to fill the holes, but, until the very end of the season, none was able to provide sustained success. I had expected the pitching staff to be better than last year, but they fell well short of that.
4. Bumbling Bill Smith
Having finished just a game short of the postseason in a mediocre division, one might have expected Bill Smith to take advantage of the Twins' considerable payroll flexibility and a historically depressed free agent market in order to put his team over the competitive hump. Instead, he essentially stood pat, re-signing Nick Punto, adding Crede and Luis Ayala, but subtracting superlative LOOGY Dennys Reyes. Then, he weakened an already shallow bullpen by losing Breslow on waivers to Oakland (Breslow's numbers with the A's: 55.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) and replacing him with Sean Henn (11.1, 7.15, 1.50). Smith's failure to add depth to the roster in the offseason kept the Twins spinning their wheels throughout the summer.
A daunting list of shortcomings to surmount, but they did it, because a lot of things went right:
1. More Powerful Than I Could Possibly Imagine!
Yes, I expected the Twins to surpass the 111 HR they hit in 2008, but by something on the order of 30 additional bombs. In fact, the Twins blasted 61 more HR, and had 4 players hit more than 25 for the first time since 1987. Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Denard Span all set new career highs, and Justin Morneau got back to 30 before being sidelined by his back injury. The offense's numbers with RISP did indeed take a significant hit (from .305 in '08 down to .278 this year), but the barrage of long balls made up for all but 12 runs of the difference, and the Twins still finished 4th in the league with 817 R.
2. Just Catch the Damn Ball!
The 108 E and 70 unearned R the Twins allowed in 2008 were unprecedented under the Gardy administration, and I knew it would be a priority for them to clean that up. Say what you want about range or defensive efficiency, the Twins are known for making the plays they're supposed to make, and last year they didn't. This year, things were back to normal. In spite of the disproportionate number of errors Orlando Cabrera committed in just 2 months with the team, they still finished tied for first in the AL in fewest errors and 2nd in fielding percentage. That translated into 31 fewer unearned runs allowed than last year.
3. Bill Smith to the Rescue!
Recognizing that the division could be won by a slightly over .500 team, but that the group he had fielded was pretty much exactly a .500 team, the Twins' GM embarked on a flurry of late-season trades unlike anything attempted by his predecessor. He brought in Cabrera to raise the production from the dreadful SS/#2 spot. He brought in Carl Pavano to anchor a reeling starting rotation. He brought in Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay to solidify a combustible bullpen. All the moves worked (eventually), as what had been a .505 team through July improved to .583 over the final two months.
4. Somebody Step Up!
Those additions were a big help, but they were partially made to make up for the subtractions of Morneau, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins and Francisco Liriano. They did nothing to address the disappointing production the Twins had received from 3B, 2B, LF and the #4 starter. The Twins' happy ending resulted from contributions far exceeding what anyone could have predicted from existing role players. Delmon Young, Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto had put up terrible numbers for most of the season, but went off over the final 3 weeks to finally give the Twins a productive lineup from top to bottom. And Brian Duensing, following in the unimpressive footsteps of RA Dickey, Philip Humber, Anthony Swarzak, Kevin Mulvey, Armando Gabino and Jeff Manship, was given an opportunity to make some starts and not only made the most of it, but was one of the Twins' best pitchers down the stretch, compiling a 2.73 ERA and 5-1 record as a starter. If he pitches like he did at Rochester, the Twins don't catch the Tigers.
Baseball's postseason has always been about bragging rights between divisions and leagues, proving which of them was the strongest. I think we all knew going into the season that the Twins' division was the weakest. Among the AL Central clubs, the Twins were the only team to have a positive run differential, as well as a winning record against all of their division rivals. By those measures, at least, the Twins deserved to win the Central, and it was gratifying to see them pull it off. Maybe next year they won't have to wait until the last minute to do it.
In order to make the task of grading players easier, I'm only going to rate hitters with more AB than Jose Morales and pitchers with more innings than Jeff Manship. (Suffice it to say, Rauch and Mahay were terrific, while Breslow, Henn, Humber, Gabino and Mulvey were lousy.)
Flat Out Awesome
Joe Mauer - And I thought he had a great season last year. If it's possible for a multiple All-Star and Batting Champ to have a breakout season, Mauer did it, setting career highs in BA, OBP, SLG, HR and RBI. Not just the league's best hitter - the league's best player. Yikes, he's going to be expensive.
Denard Span - I was worried after his sluggish spring, but Span was ready once the regular season started. The XBH didn't come as easily as last summer, but he isn't paid to slug - his job is to get on base, and very few qualified hitters did it better. Span finished 9th in the league in BA, 10th in OBP, and 3rd in OBP among leadoff hitters.
Jason Kubel - After last season I noted that if Kubel could have picked up an extra knock every 2 weeks, even if they were all singles, he'd have hit .300/.360/.499. This season he got those extra base hits, and they weren't all singles. He finished at .300/.369/.539 with 28 HR and 103 RBI - all career highs.
Michael Cuddyer - Nagging injuries throughout the last 2 seasons had begun to make Cuddyer's fantastic 2006 seem like an aberration. This year, he justified the team's investment in him, setting career highs in G, AB, HR and SLG. He'd already put together a strong season when Morneau went down, but the way he stepped up to fill that void helped lead the team into the postseason.
Joe Nathan - I almost got caught up in the notion that Nathan's prominent blown saves over the season's final 6 weeks meant that he'd had a subpar year, but the numbers just don't back that up. His K/9 and BAA were the best they've been since 2006. If not for that one lousy game against the White Sox, when he gave up 4 ER on 2 HR and 2BB after the Twins' defense had recorded 27 outs, his ERA, BB and HR numbers would have been as stellar as ever.
Matt Guerrier - I figured he'd bounce back a bit from his disastrous finish to 2008, but Guerrier did better than that. He maintained his 76.1 IP workload while setting career bests in BA, OBP and SLG against, and nearly matched his career best ERA at 2.36. The only downside is that he gave up 10 HR, but at least they were mostly solo shots.
Most Satisfying
Justin Morneau - It's a testament to the ferocious pace Morneau set for the first 4 months that his deep slump in the final weeks could only drop him to an .879 OPS. In just over 500 AB, he was able to hit 30 HR with 100 RBI. He still needs to prove he can finish a season strong, but I'll give him a mulligan on this year.
Jose Morales - Asked to fill in for Joe Mauer in April, Morales hit like, well, Joe Mauer. I mean, the pre-2009 version, anyway. He drew more walks than I expected, finishing the year with a .381 OBP despite a deep slump over the final few games. He's a no-brainer to be Mauer's caddy next year.
Brian Duensing - In 14 relief appearances, Duensing didn't look much better than any of the other AAA filler the Twins brought up over the summer. But when he was given a chance to start, he was stupendous, lasting into the 6th inning nearly every time out and keeping his ERA under 3.00. Glen Perkins should be nervous.
Jose Mijares - He stumbled a bit over the final few days of the season, but Mijares was largely an excellent option out of the 'pen. Altogether, he had a 2.34 ERA over 61.2 IP with 55 K/23 BB (better than his minor league averages). He was able to hold lefties to a .480 OPS.
Nick Blackburn - If you liked Blackburn last year (and I did), then you had to like him this year, too. His final numbers were almost identical in terms of starts, ERA, WHIP, HR/9, K, BB, and W-L record. He averaged about an extra out per appearance, and was the Twins' best pitcher for much of the season. I'll expect more of the same next year.
Not Too Shabby
Delmon Young - Yes, I'm very concerned about the major step backward young took in plate discipline this season (92/12 K/BB). But I'm pleased by the career-best power he displayed (.425 SLG, .141 IsoP). Understanding that a lot of his trouble came from the funk he was in immediately after his mother died in May, check out his post All-Star Break numbers: .300/.322/.502 with 10 2B, 9 HR and 35 RBI. All this in his age 23 season. He needs to take more pitches, but he's coming along.
Joe Crede - His batting average was lower than normal, so Crede wound up with an OPS just a shade over .700. But he had a lot of big hits and played rock solid defense at the hot corner. While he was on the field, which was only about 60% of the time. Did I expect all that? Yeah, so I can't say he disappointed me.
Nick Punto - There are some who will say that Punto was awful this season, just as bad as he was in 2007. Hardly. Even when his average was south of .200, he was drawing walks at a career-best rate. When the hits started to fall in for him down the stretch, he was able to raise his BA to .228. Not good, but his remarkable .109 IsoD gave him an OBP of .337, very close to the .344 he had in his "good" year of 2008. Add in 16/19 SB and sure-handed defense, and I'm satisfied.
Scott Baker - He made 33 starts, threw 200 IP for the first time in his career, and had a fine 15-9 record, but Baker should have been better. He gave up half of his 28 HR in his first 9 starts, spanning 52.2 IP. After that, he was 13-3 with a 3.67 ERA the rest of the way. He made a mechanical adjustment, apparently. Why weren't his mechanics adjusted by the end of Spring Training?
Luis Ayala - Apparently some folks were deluded about his abilities, perhaps including Ayala himself. He wasn't going to be a blow-them-away setup man or a ground ball machine. He was going to be a slightly above-average, rubber-armed middle reliever. And so he was.
RA Dickey - Signed to be filler on the AAA team, Dickey was so good in spring training that he earned a spot in the 'pen. And for a while, it looked as though he'd figured out the whole knuckleball thing, compiling a 2.45 in 44 IP with a 31/17 K/BB ratio through June. He came crashing down after that, with a 9.30 ERA and 11/13 K/BB ratio in 12 appearances before his dismissal in early August. Still, who would have thought we'd even get a couple of good months out of him when he signed?
Jesse Crain - It was a tale of two halves for Crain. Early in the year he was a mess, with a 8.15 ERA, 1.92 WHIP and 3 HR allowed in 17.2 IP before a midsummer demotion to Rochester. When he returned, he was the Crain of old: 2.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 0 HR allowed in 34 IP. Problem solved.
Not So Good
Brendan Harris - I was one of the proponents of the Harris/Buscher platoon at 3B heading into the season. It's a good thing Bill Smith got Joe Crede and Matt Tolbert finished so strong, because 3B would have been a disaster if we'd had to rely on just these guys. Harris' offensive numbers have declined for 3 straight years now, and his defensive range is nothing special.
Brian Buscher - I'll say one thing for Buscher: he's got a great eye at the plate. His .125 IsoD makes Joe Mauer look like Delmon Young. He kept himself marginally useful by reaching base 36% of the time and making just about all the makable plays at 3B. But after slugging like Jason Kubel for 2 years in a row at Rochester, it was a big disappointment to see him accumulate just 6 XBH in 136 AB.
Carlos Gomez - He definitely made some strides this year, lowering his preposterous K/BB rate from 5.68 to 3.27, and generally playing exceptional CF defense. But the speed pieces of his game took steps back - his SB success rate dropped from 75% to 67%, and he stopped getting bunt hits - so his overall offensive value didn't even measure up to last year.
Bobby Keppel - In an ideal world, Keppel never gets the call to join the Twins. But, having ditched Breslow and Ayala, the Twins needed another middle reliever, and Keppel was doing well at Rochester. He got off to a great start, allowing just 1 ER on 8 H (0 HR) over his first 16 IP. The remaining 38 IP were pretty dicey: 28 ER on 55 H (4 HR), beginning with the nightmare 14-13 loss to Oakland on July 20th.
Kevin Slowey - It may not be fair, but I hold Slowey to a pretty high standard. Though he was able to use prodigious run support to build a 10-3 record, he never established the consistency he's capable of, and that the rotation desperately needed. Of his 16 starts in 2009, only 9 were QS, and I just think he should be better than that.
Jeff Manship - Certainly he was over his head, having begun the season at AA and made only 9 AAA starts before being called up to the Twins' decimated pitching staff. But he was supposed to be able to throw strikes and keep the ball in the yard, and he didn't do that. Back to Rochester he goes...
Flat Out Awful
Mike Redmond - I didn't think twice about the Twins picking up Redmond's option last fall. Sure, his numbers were in steady decline from their 2006 peaks, but 2008 was the first time he'd been below his career averages as a Twin, and that was still good for a .287 BA. At 38, age finally caught up to him, as his OPS dropped below .600 for the first time in his career, and he threw out just 1 out of every 8 base stealers.
Alexi Casilla - He had pretty good plate discipline (.078 IsoD) and went 11/11 in SB attempts. But he was an easy out for most of the season, finishing the year with a .280 OBP, and he had several concentration lapses in the field as well. At least he ended the regular season on a good note!
Anthony Swarzak - Like Keppel, Swarzak started his Twins career with a run of scoreless innings. But he was quality just 3 times over his final 10 starts, and nobody was more flammable in August, when he gave up 22 ER on 33 H and 8 HR in just 13.1 IP over 4 starts (14.85 ERA).
Glen Perkins - He was the only Twins starter to come out of the gate strong, throwing 29 IP over 4 GS with a 2.48 ERA and 0 HR allowed in April. Then he got torched for 20 ER in just 18 IP with 6 HR allowed over his next 4 GS, and went on the DL. He was good Perkins again for his next 4 starts, allowing just 8 ER over 27 IP with 1 HR allowed, before he was torched again for 27 ER in 21.1 IP with 6 HR allowed over his final 5 GS. And never came back. Was it all physical? Or is he just that inconsistent?
Francisco Liriano - He never really got it going this year, mostly due to an inability to command his fastball. That led to nearly a BB every 2 IP, and a HR served up every 6-7 IP. There was some hope that he'd be a co-ace along with Baker, at least a solid #2. Not even close. And moving to the bullpen didn't make him any more likely to throw strikes or keep the ball in the yard.
Showing posts with label 2009 Season. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2009 Season. Show all posts
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Monday, August 10, 2009
It's Not Our Year
For the second time this season, the Twins come staggering home from a losing road trip despite having outscored their opponents (38-29). That leaves them three games under .500, even though their run differential (+9) suggests a team that should be three games over .500 and right on Detroit's butt. That the team with the best scoring differential doesn't always have the best record is one of the things that makes sports so compelling. It's not enough to be good - you have to be good and execute when you need it.
The Twins aren't executing when they need it. Some of that's luck: Mike Redmond's soft liner with 2 RISP on Thursday afternoon would have scored both runners had the Indians been playing the IF in. The slow grounder to 2nd he hit in his next AB would have driven in a run from 3rd had the IF been back. Thursday could have been a happy day if Eric Wedge had made different decisions. But mostly, the Twins have only themselves to blame. Any kind of hit or productive out in any number of situations would have won the rubber game in Cleveland. Any kind of decent starts from Anthony Swarzak and Scott Baker in Detroit would have led to a Twins' sweep. But the Twins aren't getting what they need. Not this year.
Yes, I'm starting to feel fatalistic about the season, and I wouldn't be surprised if the players are, too. That's why it's so important for Bill Smith to keep infusing fresh blood into the team, so that they can have some reason to believe that things are different now, tomorrow will be better. Each of the Twins' recent additions, though not necessarily impact players on paper, have given the team the strongest production anyone could hope for so far. Since joining the team on August 1st, Orlando Cabrera is hitting .361/.378/.611. That's fit right into an offense that's averaging 6.0 R/game in August, and that's including a couple of RISP clunkers in Cleveland. Carl Pavano stepped into the rotation and delivered 7 shutout innings, meaning that the Twins have allowed 53 R in the 7 games this month he didn't start.
Pavano, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing and Jesse Crain are the only pitchers to have avoided disaster so far in August, although most of them had their troubles in July. With an offense that's rolling, the Twins just need league average pitching to stay in the race. The players already on the roster must be able to improve upon their recent performances. But Bill Smith should keep his eyes glued to the waiver wire in hopes of picking up other players, especially pitchers, who might be able to give the Twins some stability in the 'pen or the rotation. And he should also be willing to take some chances on some of the guys at Rochester, perhaps even before rosters expand.
The only decent starter they haven't tried yet is Jeff Manship, who's currently sporting a 3.22 ERA in 50.1 IP. He's only allowed 3 HR in 126 IP between New Britain and Rochester, so at least he knows how to keep it in the yard. The IF has plenty to offer, as Steven Tolleson (.301/.372/.435) would likely be an upgrade at 2B over Casilla/Punto, Jose Morales (.321/.417/.409) could definitely outperform Mike Redmond, and Danny Valencia (.292/.315/.474) might already be a better hitter than Brendan Harris or Joe Crede (though in his case I would definitely wait until September to bring him up).
But the minor leaguers could really change the complexion of the bullpen. Rob Delaney, after a brutal introduction to AAA, has a 1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 since the beginning of July. Juan Morillo has an ugly 6.0 BB/9, but has 12 K/9, a .210 BAA, and has allowed only 1 HR in 51 IP at Rochester. And there's Anthony Slama, who has an unseemly 4.5 BB/9, but has 12.9 K/9, a .201 BAA and has allowed 5 HR in 65.1 IP. Maybe he'd get lit up if he skipped a level, but maybe he'd give the Twins a stretch run like they got out of Jose Mijares last year. Either way, I don't think the Twins have a lot to lose. As the team is now, even with the additions they've made so far, I can't help wondering at the beginning of every game what they're going to do to blow it this time.
The Twins aren't executing when they need it. Some of that's luck: Mike Redmond's soft liner with 2 RISP on Thursday afternoon would have scored both runners had the Indians been playing the IF in. The slow grounder to 2nd he hit in his next AB would have driven in a run from 3rd had the IF been back. Thursday could have been a happy day if Eric Wedge had made different decisions. But mostly, the Twins have only themselves to blame. Any kind of hit or productive out in any number of situations would have won the rubber game in Cleveland. Any kind of decent starts from Anthony Swarzak and Scott Baker in Detroit would have led to a Twins' sweep. But the Twins aren't getting what they need. Not this year.
Yes, I'm starting to feel fatalistic about the season, and I wouldn't be surprised if the players are, too. That's why it's so important for Bill Smith to keep infusing fresh blood into the team, so that they can have some reason to believe that things are different now, tomorrow will be better. Each of the Twins' recent additions, though not necessarily impact players on paper, have given the team the strongest production anyone could hope for so far. Since joining the team on August 1st, Orlando Cabrera is hitting .361/.378/.611. That's fit right into an offense that's averaging 6.0 R/game in August, and that's including a couple of RISP clunkers in Cleveland. Carl Pavano stepped into the rotation and delivered 7 shutout innings, meaning that the Twins have allowed 53 R in the 7 games this month he didn't start.
Pavano, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing and Jesse Crain are the only pitchers to have avoided disaster so far in August, although most of them had their troubles in July. With an offense that's rolling, the Twins just need league average pitching to stay in the race. The players already on the roster must be able to improve upon their recent performances. But Bill Smith should keep his eyes glued to the waiver wire in hopes of picking up other players, especially pitchers, who might be able to give the Twins some stability in the 'pen or the rotation. And he should also be willing to take some chances on some of the guys at Rochester, perhaps even before rosters expand.
The only decent starter they haven't tried yet is Jeff Manship, who's currently sporting a 3.22 ERA in 50.1 IP. He's only allowed 3 HR in 126 IP between New Britain and Rochester, so at least he knows how to keep it in the yard. The IF has plenty to offer, as Steven Tolleson (.301/.372/.435) would likely be an upgrade at 2B over Casilla/Punto, Jose Morales (.321/.417/.409) could definitely outperform Mike Redmond, and Danny Valencia (.292/.315/.474) might already be a better hitter than Brendan Harris or Joe Crede (though in his case I would definitely wait until September to bring him up).
But the minor leaguers could really change the complexion of the bullpen. Rob Delaney, after a brutal introduction to AAA, has a 1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 since the beginning of July. Juan Morillo has an ugly 6.0 BB/9, but has 12 K/9, a .210 BAA, and has allowed only 1 HR in 51 IP at Rochester. And there's Anthony Slama, who has an unseemly 4.5 BB/9, but has 12.9 K/9, a .201 BAA and has allowed 5 HR in 65.1 IP. Maybe he'd get lit up if he skipped a level, but maybe he'd give the Twins a stretch run like they got out of Jose Mijares last year. Either way, I don't think the Twins have a lot to lose. As the team is now, even with the additions they've made so far, I can't help wondering at the beginning of every game what they're going to do to blow it this time.
Monday, May 11, 2009
2nd Split: 8-8
Overall Record: 15-17
3rd in AL Central by 3 games
Other splits: 7-9
The series loss to the Royals and poor road trip last week may make it seem like it was a lot worse, but the reality is that the Twins managed to tread water over the last 16 games. After being blown out 97-66 over the first 5 series, they were able to outscore their opponents 81-72 in the 6 series since. One would have expected them to do a little better than .500 with a +9 run differential over 16 games. Then again, they should have lost a lot more than 9 games with a -31 run differential over the first couple weeks, so the Twins are still in a pretty good position given their relatively poor play up to this point.
This stretch was reminiscent of late last season, and not in a good way. The Twins lost 3 games they were leading after 6 innings, thanks mainly to a faltering pitching staff that still boasts only 4 members with ERAs under 4.50. There are some positive signs, as Scott Baker seems to be figuring things out and Jose Mijares has mostly provided an upgrade to the bullpen. But it's frustrating to see light-hitting teams like KC and Seattle managing to put up 5+ runs against the Twins' pitching.
The offense has warmed up, thanks in no small part to the debut of Joe Mauer. While Delmon Young certainly picked up his batting average, as I predicted he would, he had nary an XBH during this stretch. The big improvement from the right side has come from Michael Cuddyer, who hit .207/.254/.310 through the first split, but jumped to .340/.453/.660 with 12 RBI in the second. Joe Crede also heated up, going .300/.333/.525 before a tight hamstring forced him from the lineup this weekend. Unfortunately, Nick Punto and Carlos Gomez have mostly played themselves out of the lineup, and Alexi Casilla played himself back to Rochester - and Matt Tolbert hasn't done a hell of a lot better so far.
The Twins have continued to play largely error-free ball. Their 13 errors is by far the fewest in the AL, and three of the 5 errors they committed during this split came in one game at the hands of a rather harsh official scorer. Too many of the fielding mistakes came from Casilla, and the exchange of him with Tolbert hopefully will at least shore up that area of the team.
130 games to play, the pitching staff still hasn't gotten it going, and the Twins are only 3 games behind the Tigers and Royals. Nothing to worry about yet.
Bold prediction: The offense is going to have to carry the team through the next 5 series (Tigers, @Yankees, @White Sox, Brewers, Red Sox).
3rd in AL Central by 3 games
Other splits: 7-9
The series loss to the Royals and poor road trip last week may make it seem like it was a lot worse, but the reality is that the Twins managed to tread water over the last 16 games. After being blown out 97-66 over the first 5 series, they were able to outscore their opponents 81-72 in the 6 series since. One would have expected them to do a little better than .500 with a +9 run differential over 16 games. Then again, they should have lost a lot more than 9 games with a -31 run differential over the first couple weeks, so the Twins are still in a pretty good position given their relatively poor play up to this point.
This stretch was reminiscent of late last season, and not in a good way. The Twins lost 3 games they were leading after 6 innings, thanks mainly to a faltering pitching staff that still boasts only 4 members with ERAs under 4.50. There are some positive signs, as Scott Baker seems to be figuring things out and Jose Mijares has mostly provided an upgrade to the bullpen. But it's frustrating to see light-hitting teams like KC and Seattle managing to put up 5+ runs against the Twins' pitching.
The offense has warmed up, thanks in no small part to the debut of Joe Mauer. While Delmon Young certainly picked up his batting average, as I predicted he would, he had nary an XBH during this stretch. The big improvement from the right side has come from Michael Cuddyer, who hit .207/.254/.310 through the first split, but jumped to .340/.453/.660 with 12 RBI in the second. Joe Crede also heated up, going .300/.333/.525 before a tight hamstring forced him from the lineup this weekend. Unfortunately, Nick Punto and Carlos Gomez have mostly played themselves out of the lineup, and Alexi Casilla played himself back to Rochester - and Matt Tolbert hasn't done a hell of a lot better so far.
The Twins have continued to play largely error-free ball. Their 13 errors is by far the fewest in the AL, and three of the 5 errors they committed during this split came in one game at the hands of a rather harsh official scorer. Too many of the fielding mistakes came from Casilla, and the exchange of him with Tolbert hopefully will at least shore up that area of the team.
130 games to play, the pitching staff still hasn't gotten it going, and the Twins are only 3 games behind the Tigers and Royals. Nothing to worry about yet.
Bold prediction: The offense is going to have to carry the team through the next 5 series (Tigers, @Yankees, @White Sox, Brewers, Red Sox).
Thursday, April 30, 2009
April Review
Twins Record: 11-11
4th in AL Central, 1 game out of 1st
First, the bad news: The Twins finished April 11th in the AL in scoring and OBP, 12th in SLG% and HR, and only 9th in SB. They are 10th in the league in BAA, ERA, OPS against and runs allowed, 11th in K and HR allowed, and 13th in SB allowed. Twins catchers threw out only 1 base stealer all month. In all of MLB, only the Nationals and Orioles have a worse run differential.
Only 5 Twins hitters have BA higher than .241. Only 6 have SLG% higher than .333. There has been precious little hitting with RISP. Only 6 pitchers have ERAs lower than 5.40, and 3 of them have combined for 16.1 IP. The starters are averaging fewer than 6 IP/GS.
But hey, look on the bright side: They still issue the fewest walks in the league. Their 8 errors are tied for fewest in the league, resulting in a league-low 3 unearned runs. As disappointing as their team hitting line of .262/.328/.386 with 0.73 HR/game and 4.23 R/game is, it's actually an improvement over last April's .258/.302/.361 with 0.54 HR/game and 3.81 R/game. And you will recall that the offense put it together quite well as the season went on.
Best of all, the Twins have managed to stay at .500 despite their shoddy play, within 1 good series of taking over 1st place in the division, all without the help of their most important player, Joe Mauer. He'll be back on Friday, and his .400+ OBP is going to look real nice after Denard Span and in front of Justin Morneau. The starting pitching is on an upswing, and the cold members of the offense are almost certain to get it going before too long.
It's sort of miraculous that the Twins are as well-positioned as they are. We can thank the 2 improbable Metrodome comebacks: 5 straight batters reached after 2 were out in the bottom of the 9th against Seattle closer Brandon Morrow, and 7 scored in the bottom of the 8th against the Angels, culminating in Jason Kubel's cycle-clinching grand slam that turned a 9-4 deficit into an 11-9 victory. The Twins had no business winning either of those games, and if they hadn't, their record would be 9-13, only 1 game ahead of Cleveland.
So cheer up, Twins fans. It only gets better from here.
It was a short month, so my cutoffs for qualifying for grades will be 20 PA for hitters and 5.0 IP for pitchers.
Getting It Done
Denard Span - I had my doubts after his icy cold spring training, but when the bell went off on opening day he picked up right where his terrific rookie campaign left off, reaching base about 39% of the time, picking up 5 SB to lead the team, and playing good defense at all three OF positions.
Justin Morneau - Does his .318/.365/.557 line remind you of anything? How about the .321/.375/.559 line he put up in his MVP year of 2006. Easily on pace for 30+ HR after his disappointing 23 last year. Needs to take more walks and/or strike out less, but otherwise doing his thing.
Jason Kubel - At last, a good start for Kubel. He's nearly matched Morneau offensively, and has earned the opportunity to face more LHP. He's not hitting them particularly well (.250/.294/.313 in 16 AB), but neither is anyone else on the team right now. This could be the start of the breakout season that makes the contract he signed over the offseason look like a steal.
Jose Morales - The defense hasn't been good, as Morales has made 2 of the team's 8 errors, allowed a couple of PB, and thrown out only 1 attempted base stealer. But you could hardly have asked for more from him offensively - his .349/.391/.419 isn't a very big step down from what Mauer would have done, and he's had to assume more playing time as Mike Redmond deals with nagging injuries.
Brendan Harris - I'll be the first one to admit that Harris isn't the same fielder as Nick Punto or Alexi Casilla. But he's just about the only guy we have hitting lefties right now, and he's hit RHP even better. As Casilla struggles, Gardy needs to find ways to get Harris more AB.
Glen Perkins - Raise your hand if you thought Perkins would be the Twins' best starter this month. Extra credit if you guessed he would have 1.56 points of ERA and 0.37 points of WHIP on the next best starter. Lack of run support has cost him in the win column, but those 8 IP starts have been the salvation of a shaky bullpen. The pitching MVP of April.
So Far, So Good
Nick Punto - Like most of the Twins' switch-hitters, Punto's poor splits vs. LHP have dragged his overall line way down. The .228 BA isn't too far away from the disaster of 2007. But his 11/9 K/BB rate has enabled him to get his OBP up to .343. That's productive enough for a #9 hitting SS, especially if he only makes 1 error in 19 games.
Joe Nathan - The line is pretty good: 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 7 IP with 7 K. The problem is, 2 of the 5 H he allowed have been HR, one of which cost him a save earlier this week. When he gets more use, I expect his HR/9 numbers to head back toward his career averages.
Nick Blackburn - This is Nick Blackburn: his ERA and WHIP are almost identical to his totals from last year. His K/9 is down, but he's only allowed 1 HR in 31.1 IP. Best of all, his IP/start is up over 6, thanks to Gardy's increased confidence in his starters (or decreased confidence in the bullpen).
Kevin Slowey - I hold Slowey to a pretty high standard, so I almost didn't stick him in this category. Ultimately, I decided that his last 2 starts (1.00 WHIP, 1 HR, 12 K in 15 IP) cancel out his first 2 starts (2.00 WHIP, 4 HR, 7 K in 11.1 IP). The tipping point was the fact that he got the team into the 6th inning even when he was struggling.
Jesse Crain - Overall, it's not a good line for Crain, but almost all of the ugliness (3 BB and 4 ER) came in that final, grueling outing vs. the Angels. His remaining appearances were very effective, and I expect him to resume his role as the primary RH middle reliever once he comes off the DL.
Matt Guerrier - Like Crain, almost all of the damage (4 ER, 4 H, HR) came in one lousy appearance against the Blue Jays. In his other 8 appearances, he's allowed only 2 ER on 5 H and 2 BB with 7 K in 9.1 IP. That'll work.
Need To Pick It Up
Alexi Casilla - Even if you take away his 1 for 23 vs. LHP, Casilla is only hitting .239/.300/.304. On the bright side, he's made every play but one in the field, he's 2/2 in SB, and he was hitting just about this badly for Rochester last spring before he was called up. He should lose some playing time to Harris, particularly vs. LHP, but it would be tough not to improve on his start.
Michael Cuddyer - It seems like a lot of his early AB went like this: take a strike, swing through an offspeed pitch, then do what you can behind in the count. He's basically corrected his K/BB rate with 7 BB over his last 4 games, so maybe that's a sign that he's starting to see the ball better.
Joe Crede - The defense and the IsoP are as advertised, but he's supposed to hit a little better than .212, isn't he?
Delmon Young - Incredibly, he's hitting even worse than he did last April. At least he's not playing every day.
Carlos Gomez - What I said about Young applies here as well.
Brian Buscher - Not doing much hitting, though he's drawn some big walks and HBP.
Mike Redmond - He's having a hard time physically. Tough to be an old catcher.
Scott Baker - I'm going to assume that he's on his way to figuring himself out. The first 2 starts were appalling.
Francisco Liriano - Not pitching nearly as poorly as Baker, but still well below his ability. He's showing some signs of straightening things out as well.
Luis Ayala - Seems to be giving up a run or two every other time he takes the mound.
R.A. Dickey - Home runs, walks, and the score gets worse and worse. Almost certainly heading to Rochester when Crain comes off the DL.
4th in AL Central, 1 game out of 1st
First, the bad news: The Twins finished April 11th in the AL in scoring and OBP, 12th in SLG% and HR, and only 9th in SB. They are 10th in the league in BAA, ERA, OPS against and runs allowed, 11th in K and HR allowed, and 13th in SB allowed. Twins catchers threw out only 1 base stealer all month. In all of MLB, only the Nationals and Orioles have a worse run differential.
Only 5 Twins hitters have BA higher than .241. Only 6 have SLG% higher than .333. There has been precious little hitting with RISP. Only 6 pitchers have ERAs lower than 5.40, and 3 of them have combined for 16.1 IP. The starters are averaging fewer than 6 IP/GS.
But hey, look on the bright side: They still issue the fewest walks in the league. Their 8 errors are tied for fewest in the league, resulting in a league-low 3 unearned runs. As disappointing as their team hitting line of .262/.328/.386 with 0.73 HR/game and 4.23 R/game is, it's actually an improvement over last April's .258/.302/.361 with 0.54 HR/game and 3.81 R/game. And you will recall that the offense put it together quite well as the season went on.
Best of all, the Twins have managed to stay at .500 despite their shoddy play, within 1 good series of taking over 1st place in the division, all without the help of their most important player, Joe Mauer. He'll be back on Friday, and his .400+ OBP is going to look real nice after Denard Span and in front of Justin Morneau. The starting pitching is on an upswing, and the cold members of the offense are almost certain to get it going before too long.
It's sort of miraculous that the Twins are as well-positioned as they are. We can thank the 2 improbable Metrodome comebacks: 5 straight batters reached after 2 were out in the bottom of the 9th against Seattle closer Brandon Morrow, and 7 scored in the bottom of the 8th against the Angels, culminating in Jason Kubel's cycle-clinching grand slam that turned a 9-4 deficit into an 11-9 victory. The Twins had no business winning either of those games, and if they hadn't, their record would be 9-13, only 1 game ahead of Cleveland.
So cheer up, Twins fans. It only gets better from here.
It was a short month, so my cutoffs for qualifying for grades will be 20 PA for hitters and 5.0 IP for pitchers.
Getting It Done
Denard Span - I had my doubts after his icy cold spring training, but when the bell went off on opening day he picked up right where his terrific rookie campaign left off, reaching base about 39% of the time, picking up 5 SB to lead the team, and playing good defense at all three OF positions.
Justin Morneau - Does his .318/.365/.557 line remind you of anything? How about the .321/.375/.559 line he put up in his MVP year of 2006. Easily on pace for 30+ HR after his disappointing 23 last year. Needs to take more walks and/or strike out less, but otherwise doing his thing.
Jason Kubel - At last, a good start for Kubel. He's nearly matched Morneau offensively, and has earned the opportunity to face more LHP. He's not hitting them particularly well (.250/.294/.313 in 16 AB), but neither is anyone else on the team right now. This could be the start of the breakout season that makes the contract he signed over the offseason look like a steal.
Jose Morales - The defense hasn't been good, as Morales has made 2 of the team's 8 errors, allowed a couple of PB, and thrown out only 1 attempted base stealer. But you could hardly have asked for more from him offensively - his .349/.391/.419 isn't a very big step down from what Mauer would have done, and he's had to assume more playing time as Mike Redmond deals with nagging injuries.
Brendan Harris - I'll be the first one to admit that Harris isn't the same fielder as Nick Punto or Alexi Casilla. But he's just about the only guy we have hitting lefties right now, and he's hit RHP even better. As Casilla struggles, Gardy needs to find ways to get Harris more AB.
Glen Perkins - Raise your hand if you thought Perkins would be the Twins' best starter this month. Extra credit if you guessed he would have 1.56 points of ERA and 0.37 points of WHIP on the next best starter. Lack of run support has cost him in the win column, but those 8 IP starts have been the salvation of a shaky bullpen. The pitching MVP of April.
So Far, So Good
Nick Punto - Like most of the Twins' switch-hitters, Punto's poor splits vs. LHP have dragged his overall line way down. The .228 BA isn't too far away from the disaster of 2007. But his 11/9 K/BB rate has enabled him to get his OBP up to .343. That's productive enough for a #9 hitting SS, especially if he only makes 1 error in 19 games.
Joe Nathan - The line is pretty good: 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 7 IP with 7 K. The problem is, 2 of the 5 H he allowed have been HR, one of which cost him a save earlier this week. When he gets more use, I expect his HR/9 numbers to head back toward his career averages.
Nick Blackburn - This is Nick Blackburn: his ERA and WHIP are almost identical to his totals from last year. His K/9 is down, but he's only allowed 1 HR in 31.1 IP. Best of all, his IP/start is up over 6, thanks to Gardy's increased confidence in his starters (or decreased confidence in the bullpen).
Kevin Slowey - I hold Slowey to a pretty high standard, so I almost didn't stick him in this category. Ultimately, I decided that his last 2 starts (1.00 WHIP, 1 HR, 12 K in 15 IP) cancel out his first 2 starts (2.00 WHIP, 4 HR, 7 K in 11.1 IP). The tipping point was the fact that he got the team into the 6th inning even when he was struggling.
Jesse Crain - Overall, it's not a good line for Crain, but almost all of the ugliness (3 BB and 4 ER) came in that final, grueling outing vs. the Angels. His remaining appearances were very effective, and I expect him to resume his role as the primary RH middle reliever once he comes off the DL.
Matt Guerrier - Like Crain, almost all of the damage (4 ER, 4 H, HR) came in one lousy appearance against the Blue Jays. In his other 8 appearances, he's allowed only 2 ER on 5 H and 2 BB with 7 K in 9.1 IP. That'll work.
Need To Pick It Up
Alexi Casilla - Even if you take away his 1 for 23 vs. LHP, Casilla is only hitting .239/.300/.304. On the bright side, he's made every play but one in the field, he's 2/2 in SB, and he was hitting just about this badly for Rochester last spring before he was called up. He should lose some playing time to Harris, particularly vs. LHP, but it would be tough not to improve on his start.
Michael Cuddyer - It seems like a lot of his early AB went like this: take a strike, swing through an offspeed pitch, then do what you can behind in the count. He's basically corrected his K/BB rate with 7 BB over his last 4 games, so maybe that's a sign that he's starting to see the ball better.
Joe Crede - The defense and the IsoP are as advertised, but he's supposed to hit a little better than .212, isn't he?
Delmon Young - Incredibly, he's hitting even worse than he did last April. At least he's not playing every day.
Carlos Gomez - What I said about Young applies here as well.
Brian Buscher - Not doing much hitting, though he's drawn some big walks and HBP.
Mike Redmond - He's having a hard time physically. Tough to be an old catcher.
Scott Baker - I'm going to assume that he's on his way to figuring himself out. The first 2 starts were appalling.
Francisco Liriano - Not pitching nearly as poorly as Baker, but still well below his ability. He's showing some signs of straightening things out as well.
Luis Ayala - Seems to be giving up a run or two every other time he takes the mound.
R.A. Dickey - Home runs, walks, and the score gets worse and worse. Almost certainly heading to Rochester when Crain comes off the DL.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
First Split: 7-9
We're already 1/10th of the way through the 2009 season. 5 series, 11 games at home, 5 on the road. This is only enough time to determine streaks - who's hot and who's not. Generally, the Twins are not.
The Twins are 11th in the AL in runs scored, 12th in OBP and OPS. They are 10th in runs against, 11th in HR allowed, ERA and SLG% against. Those numbers combine to give the Twins the worst run differential (-31) of any team in MLB up to this point. They have trailed at some point in each of the first 16 games.
It isn't as though everyone on the team is in a funk. Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Denard Span, Brendan Harris and Nick Punto (not a great line, but OK for a #8 or #9 hitting SS who is Nick Punto) have been producing pretty well in their respective roles. What's shocking is how quickly things drop off from there. After those first 4 guys, all with an OPS of .830 or better, the next best player is Brian Buscher at .667 - and he's only had 15 AB. The entire bottom half of the lineup is scuffling with OPS south of .650. For most opposing pitchers, if they can just get past Morneau and Kubel, they're home free. Such is the state of the lineup with Joe Mauer on the DL.
Look at the pitching numbers - the drop off there is even more staggering. There's Glen Perkins, with his back-to-back-to-back 8 IP gems, ranked #1 in the league in WHIP (Glen Perkins!), #3 in ERA and #9 in IP. And Joe Nathan, with 3 saves in 5 IP, allowing only 3 baserunners while striking out 5. After that, the next best ERA is R.A. Dickey's 5.00. The next best WHIP is Jesse Crain's 1.33. Everybody on the staff has been torched at least once. Too many have been torched multiple times.
The defense has been a bright spot. The Twins have committed just 8 errors and allowed only 3 unearned runs so far. Those rates would both be significant improvements over last year. 2 of the errors came while Michael Cuddyer was playing out of position at 1B, and 2 others came from Jose Morales, who won't be behind the plate for many more games after next week. As the pitchers get their collective act together, the improved defense should result in far fewer runs allowed in the long run.
So the Twins, with the exception of 6 or 7 players, have played exceedingly poorly over this opening stretch. And yet, they are only 2 games under .500 - right where they were at this time last year - and 1.5 games out of first place. Thanks to a couple of miraculous late-inning comebacks, the Twins have made the most out of their limited production, going 5-3 in games decided by 2 or fewer runs. Compare that with Cleveland, which is 1 game behind the Twins in the standings despite having a run differential of only -2.
I'm upbeat. I can't fathom the Twins playing any worse than they have so far, they're days away from getting Joe Mauer back, and they're still just a good week away from taking over first place. Cheer up, everybody: our luck has been pretty good so far.
Bold prediction: Delmon Young will be the first hitter to break out of his funk.
Finally, Forbes has posted its annual valuation of the MLB franchises, and the Twins are once again among the leaders in year-to-year growth. I believe their $158 million revenue means they could have sustained a payroll of $87 million last year. Because they didn't spend that much, they got 33% more wins per dollar of payroll than the average MLB team. Everything still points toward the Twins being able to afford the enormous raises they're going to have to dole out to their numerous arbitration-eligible players next year.
The Twins are 11th in the AL in runs scored, 12th in OBP and OPS. They are 10th in runs against, 11th in HR allowed, ERA and SLG% against. Those numbers combine to give the Twins the worst run differential (-31) of any team in MLB up to this point. They have trailed at some point in each of the first 16 games.
It isn't as though everyone on the team is in a funk. Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Denard Span, Brendan Harris and Nick Punto (not a great line, but OK for a #8 or #9 hitting SS who is Nick Punto) have been producing pretty well in their respective roles. What's shocking is how quickly things drop off from there. After those first 4 guys, all with an OPS of .830 or better, the next best player is Brian Buscher at .667 - and he's only had 15 AB. The entire bottom half of the lineup is scuffling with OPS south of .650. For most opposing pitchers, if they can just get past Morneau and Kubel, they're home free. Such is the state of the lineup with Joe Mauer on the DL.
Look at the pitching numbers - the drop off there is even more staggering. There's Glen Perkins, with his back-to-back-to-back 8 IP gems, ranked #1 in the league in WHIP (Glen Perkins!), #3 in ERA and #9 in IP. And Joe Nathan, with 3 saves in 5 IP, allowing only 3 baserunners while striking out 5. After that, the next best ERA is R.A. Dickey's 5.00. The next best WHIP is Jesse Crain's 1.33. Everybody on the staff has been torched at least once. Too many have been torched multiple times.
The defense has been a bright spot. The Twins have committed just 8 errors and allowed only 3 unearned runs so far. Those rates would both be significant improvements over last year. 2 of the errors came while Michael Cuddyer was playing out of position at 1B, and 2 others came from Jose Morales, who won't be behind the plate for many more games after next week. As the pitchers get their collective act together, the improved defense should result in far fewer runs allowed in the long run.
So the Twins, with the exception of 6 or 7 players, have played exceedingly poorly over this opening stretch. And yet, they are only 2 games under .500 - right where they were at this time last year - and 1.5 games out of first place. Thanks to a couple of miraculous late-inning comebacks, the Twins have made the most out of their limited production, going 5-3 in games decided by 2 or fewer runs. Compare that with Cleveland, which is 1 game behind the Twins in the standings despite having a run differential of only -2.
I'm upbeat. I can't fathom the Twins playing any worse than they have so far, they're days away from getting Joe Mauer back, and they're still just a good week away from taking over first place. Cheer up, everybody: our luck has been pretty good so far.
Bold prediction: Delmon Young will be the first hitter to break out of his funk.
Finally, Forbes has posted its annual valuation of the MLB franchises, and the Twins are once again among the leaders in year-to-year growth. I believe their $158 million revenue means they could have sustained a payroll of $87 million last year. Because they didn't spend that much, they got 33% more wins per dollar of payroll than the average MLB team. Everything still points toward the Twins being able to afford the enormous raises they're going to have to dole out to their numerous arbitration-eligible players next year.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
2009 AL Central Preview
Chicago White Sox
2008 Record: 89-74
You've got to be a little lucky to outplay your projections, and the Sox certainly had their share of good breaks in 2008, at least until Carlos Quentin's bad break late in the season. They were able to turn numerous losses into victories with late-inning HR. Getting exactly what you need exactly when you need it that often is not something that can be expected to be repeated. They'll keep hitting HR in the Cell, but their lineup is starting to get pretty long in the tooth, with 4 middle-of-the-order bats beginning the season at age 32 or older. Outside of Quentin and Jim Thome, there isn't a lot of OBP in their order, so they figure to have trouble scoring when the ball doesn't go over the fence.
Where they're really going to suffer is in run prevention. Subtracting Joe Crede and Orlando Cabrera leaves them with one of the weakest all-around defenses in the league - a lot of balls are going to slip through the infield or drop into the outfield. Add to that a weak rotation after Mark Buehrle and John Danks - Gavin Floyd is primed to regress, and Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon haven't been good since 2005 and have since been injured - and I think the Sox are a team that can expect to allow more runs than they score in 2009.
Minnesota Twins
2008 Record: 88-75
The Twins roster I've summarized over the last few days is essentially the same as that which finished the 2008 season, minus Joe Mauer for the first few weeks (we hope that's all it is). My argument all winter long has been that that roster should be capable of matching their run differential from last season. Though the offense will certainly be less efficient with RISP, I expect the drop in total runs to be offset somewhat by an increase in HR from 1B, 3B, and all 3 OF positions. In other words, the Twins will be better at scoring runs when they don't have someone in scoring position. With 3 of Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, Alexi Casilla and Nick Punto likely in the lineup on any given day, the Twins should continue to rack up large numbers of sacrifices, bunt hits, and steals, putting them in position to score, as they often did last year, without the benefit of a well-hit ball. I see the Twins scoring about 50 fewer runs.
They should be able to make up those 50 runs with improved pitching and defense. Last year's staff saw 361.1 IP (nearly 25% of its total IP) given to Brian Bass, Livan Hernandez, Boof Bonser, Juan Rincon and Eddie Guardado, while suffering the fatal late-season collapse of the previously reliable Matt Guerrier. The remainder of the staff did quite well, and those are the ones who will be relied upon in 2009, with Guerrier likely returning to form. Most importantly, the young rotation, brimming with upside, should get a larger proportion of the total IP this season, leaving fewer innings in the hands of a suspect bullpen. Add to that a defense that should be much better than what the Twins brought to the field in 2008 - they allowed by far the most errors and unearned runs of Gardy's tenure, something that looks to have been addressed this spring - and the Twins shouldn't have any trouble keeping their total runs allowed around 700. They'll need some breaks to win 90, but it will be a disappointment if they don't finish with at least 85 wins.
Cleveland Indians
2008 Record: 81-81
One of the luckiest teams in 2007, the wheel of fortune spun the other way on the Tribe in 2008. They lost several key players to injuries/ineffectiveness and managed to finish just .500 despite a +44 run differential. Retaining their offensive numbers is certainly possible, and they could exceed them with bounce-back years from Victor Martinez and, especially, Travis Hafner. They'll also have to maintain the breakout performances they got from Shin-Soo Choo and Kelley Shoppach. Grady Sizemore is awesome, Asdrubal Cabrera should be better and Mark DeRosa is a nice addition to their lineup. This ought to be the best offensive team in the division.
They should have no such hopes for the defensive half-innings. Cliff Lee has never had consecutive good seasons, Fausto Carmona has had one good season, and the rest of their rotation features fringe talents and reclamation projects. Their bullpen should be rock solid, especially if Kerry Wood holds together. Defensively, they don't look all that strong in the corners, and they insist on beginning the season with a mis-aligned IF of Jhonny Peralta at SS, Cabrera at 2B and DeRosa at 3B. Though they should certainly win more games in 2009, there are so many ifs with this team, I'm skeptical that they'll be a lot better than last year.
Kansas City Royals
2008 Record: 75-87
The Royals have seen their record improve by about 6 games in each of the last 3 seasons, meaning that they're poised to finish .500 this year if they maintain the trend. Slow-starting prospects Billy Butler and Alex Gordon ought to start reaching their potential about now, which should provide a bit of a jolt to what has perennially been a punchless offense. New additions Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp could provide upgrades in production from CF and 1B. However, top to bottom, there isn't a lot of OBP or deep counts, letting opposing pitchers off the hook with a lot of quick AB.
Gil Meche and Zach Greinke will be a solid top of the rotation, and Juan Cruz and Joakim Soria are as strong a setup/closer combination as there is in baseball. However, the back of the rotation is almost laughably bad, and there are some dicey options in the bullpen in Kyle Farnsworth and Jamie Wright. The Royals are only about half of what they need to be contenders right now, even in an especially weak division. They'll need a lot of things to go right to make the .500 mark.
Detroit Tigers
2008 Record: 74-88
Was there a bigger disappointment in baseball last year than the Tigers? Their enormous investments in Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis and Edgar Renteria not only failed to take the Tigers to the next level, they actually created a backslide as a thinned minor league talent pool was unable to support an aging, injury-prone roster. This offseason they've opted to invest what limited funds they have available in upgrading their defense, but at the expense of offense. There are still quality hitters at the top of the lineup in Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez, but only two of those guys are on the happy side of 33. Adam Everett, Gerald Laird and Brandon Inge aren't going to hit a lick.
The defensive improvements the Tigers made are real, and should help their pitchers out a lot, particularly on the left side of the field. On the right side, the range is limited. The real problem with the Tigers is their pitching. I'm skeptical that Armando Galarraga can regain his first-half success from last year, which makes the rotation pretty thin after Justin Verlander - and how much can they even count on him? As for the bullpen, the guy they brought in to be the closer, Brandon Lyon, was too hittable, so they gave the job to Fernando Rodney, who walks about 4.5 batters/9 IP. Juan Rincon made their bullpen. That defense is going to be busy.
I won't predict a winner for the Central this year - in a division so evenly matched I might as well guess which team I think will be lucky. All things being equal, I think it will come down to the Indians and Twins in September, with the other three teams striving for the 81-win mark.
2008 Record: 89-74
You've got to be a little lucky to outplay your projections, and the Sox certainly had their share of good breaks in 2008, at least until Carlos Quentin's bad break late in the season. They were able to turn numerous losses into victories with late-inning HR. Getting exactly what you need exactly when you need it that often is not something that can be expected to be repeated. They'll keep hitting HR in the Cell, but their lineup is starting to get pretty long in the tooth, with 4 middle-of-the-order bats beginning the season at age 32 or older. Outside of Quentin and Jim Thome, there isn't a lot of OBP in their order, so they figure to have trouble scoring when the ball doesn't go over the fence.
Where they're really going to suffer is in run prevention. Subtracting Joe Crede and Orlando Cabrera leaves them with one of the weakest all-around defenses in the league - a lot of balls are going to slip through the infield or drop into the outfield. Add to that a weak rotation after Mark Buehrle and John Danks - Gavin Floyd is primed to regress, and Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon haven't been good since 2005 and have since been injured - and I think the Sox are a team that can expect to allow more runs than they score in 2009.
Minnesota Twins
2008 Record: 88-75
The Twins roster I've summarized over the last few days is essentially the same as that which finished the 2008 season, minus Joe Mauer for the first few weeks (we hope that's all it is). My argument all winter long has been that that roster should be capable of matching their run differential from last season. Though the offense will certainly be less efficient with RISP, I expect the drop in total runs to be offset somewhat by an increase in HR from 1B, 3B, and all 3 OF positions. In other words, the Twins will be better at scoring runs when they don't have someone in scoring position. With 3 of Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, Alexi Casilla and Nick Punto likely in the lineup on any given day, the Twins should continue to rack up large numbers of sacrifices, bunt hits, and steals, putting them in position to score, as they often did last year, without the benefit of a well-hit ball. I see the Twins scoring about 50 fewer runs.
They should be able to make up those 50 runs with improved pitching and defense. Last year's staff saw 361.1 IP (nearly 25% of its total IP) given to Brian Bass, Livan Hernandez, Boof Bonser, Juan Rincon and Eddie Guardado, while suffering the fatal late-season collapse of the previously reliable Matt Guerrier. The remainder of the staff did quite well, and those are the ones who will be relied upon in 2009, with Guerrier likely returning to form. Most importantly, the young rotation, brimming with upside, should get a larger proportion of the total IP this season, leaving fewer innings in the hands of a suspect bullpen. Add to that a defense that should be much better than what the Twins brought to the field in 2008 - they allowed by far the most errors and unearned runs of Gardy's tenure, something that looks to have been addressed this spring - and the Twins shouldn't have any trouble keeping their total runs allowed around 700. They'll need some breaks to win 90, but it will be a disappointment if they don't finish with at least 85 wins.
Cleveland Indians
2008 Record: 81-81
One of the luckiest teams in 2007, the wheel of fortune spun the other way on the Tribe in 2008. They lost several key players to injuries/ineffectiveness and managed to finish just .500 despite a +44 run differential. Retaining their offensive numbers is certainly possible, and they could exceed them with bounce-back years from Victor Martinez and, especially, Travis Hafner. They'll also have to maintain the breakout performances they got from Shin-Soo Choo and Kelley Shoppach. Grady Sizemore is awesome, Asdrubal Cabrera should be better and Mark DeRosa is a nice addition to their lineup. This ought to be the best offensive team in the division.
They should have no such hopes for the defensive half-innings. Cliff Lee has never had consecutive good seasons, Fausto Carmona has had one good season, and the rest of their rotation features fringe talents and reclamation projects. Their bullpen should be rock solid, especially if Kerry Wood holds together. Defensively, they don't look all that strong in the corners, and they insist on beginning the season with a mis-aligned IF of Jhonny Peralta at SS, Cabrera at 2B and DeRosa at 3B. Though they should certainly win more games in 2009, there are so many ifs with this team, I'm skeptical that they'll be a lot better than last year.
Kansas City Royals
2008 Record: 75-87
The Royals have seen their record improve by about 6 games in each of the last 3 seasons, meaning that they're poised to finish .500 this year if they maintain the trend. Slow-starting prospects Billy Butler and Alex Gordon ought to start reaching their potential about now, which should provide a bit of a jolt to what has perennially been a punchless offense. New additions Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp could provide upgrades in production from CF and 1B. However, top to bottom, there isn't a lot of OBP or deep counts, letting opposing pitchers off the hook with a lot of quick AB.
Gil Meche and Zach Greinke will be a solid top of the rotation, and Juan Cruz and Joakim Soria are as strong a setup/closer combination as there is in baseball. However, the back of the rotation is almost laughably bad, and there are some dicey options in the bullpen in Kyle Farnsworth and Jamie Wright. The Royals are only about half of what they need to be contenders right now, even in an especially weak division. They'll need a lot of things to go right to make the .500 mark.
Detroit Tigers
2008 Record: 74-88
Was there a bigger disappointment in baseball last year than the Tigers? Their enormous investments in Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis and Edgar Renteria not only failed to take the Tigers to the next level, they actually created a backslide as a thinned minor league talent pool was unable to support an aging, injury-prone roster. This offseason they've opted to invest what limited funds they have available in upgrading their defense, but at the expense of offense. There are still quality hitters at the top of the lineup in Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez, but only two of those guys are on the happy side of 33. Adam Everett, Gerald Laird and Brandon Inge aren't going to hit a lick.
The defensive improvements the Tigers made are real, and should help their pitchers out a lot, particularly on the left side of the field. On the right side, the range is limited. The real problem with the Tigers is their pitching. I'm skeptical that Armando Galarraga can regain his first-half success from last year, which makes the rotation pretty thin after Justin Verlander - and how much can they even count on him? As for the bullpen, the guy they brought in to be the closer, Brandon Lyon, was too hittable, so they gave the job to Fernando Rodney, who walks about 4.5 batters/9 IP. Juan Rincon made their bullpen. That defense is going to be busy.
I won't predict a winner for the Central this year - in a division so evenly matched I might as well guess which team I think will be lucky. All things being equal, I think it will come down to the Indians and Twins in September, with the other three teams striving for the 81-win mark.
Saturday, April 4, 2009
2009 Twins Preview: Waiting in the 'Wings
Last year's opening day roster included Livan Hernandez, Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, Craig Monroe, Juan Rincon and Brian Bass. Needless to say, the Twins won't be finishing the season with the same 25 guys I reviewed earlier this week. Here are some other names that might find their way into the box scores at some point in 2009:
IF - Matt Tolbert
I'm sure it broke Gardy's heart to have to cut Tolbert, so he'll certainly be the first guy called up if anything happens to an infielder. A switch-hitter with pretty good speed, Tolbert can play any of the IF positions (although his stint at 1B this week wasn't inspiring, while Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris both did OK over there) and could even be used in the OF in a pinch. He's hit pretty well at every level but AA (even in his rehab assignment last year he didn't do well there) and has generally been a high-percentage base stealer. Pretty similar to Nick Punto or Denny Hocking: the ideal guy to have on your bench (when you have a big enough bench).
IF - Luke Hughes
Next on the IF depth chart would probably be Hughes. Other than a lousy time at A+ Fort Myers, he's been a pretty good hitter, and last year he absolutely exploded in a season split between New Britain and Rochester. He's never been much of a fielder, unfortunately, but at this stage he doesn't look any worse than Buscher, who has worked to improve his glove since arriving with the Twins. Hughes is still young enough at 24 to have some upside. He'll be a September call-up if the team doesn't need him before that.
OF - Jason Pridie
The last piece of the Delmon Young trade, Pridie was brought in to compete for the CF job vacated by Torii Hunter. This was before the Twins had acquired Carlos Gomez or realized that Denard Span had figured out how to hit. Pridie quickly fell by the wayside, staying the whole year at Rochester and putting up a .270/.305/.435 line with a Gomez-esque 152/30 K/BB ratio. Still, he has terrific range in the OF and is a pretty high percentage base-stealer, so he wouldn't be a bad guy to have on the bench as a defensive sub or PR. With over 200 AAA games under his belt already, he'll likely be the first guy they call if one of the outfielders goes down.
SP - Kevin Mulvey
With Philip Humber, Brian Duensing and R.A. Dickey all capable of providing the Twins with spot starts, it will probably be a couple of months before Mulvey is considered to fill in for one of the Twins' starters. He had mixed results for the Red Wings last season, increasing his K/9 rate but also elevating his BB/9 and HR/9. He was better in the second half, and, at 23 years old, there's still plenty of time for him to figure things out. I'm guessing that his performance will get people talking about him as the summer rolls along, and that he may put the Twins in position to make an interesting trade at the end of July.
RP - Jose Mijares
After the way Mijares pitched for the Twins last September, a bullpen spot was his to lose this spring. And lose it he did, showing up for camp out of shape and struggling through just about every appearance he made. He's been a tremendous strikeout pitcher throughout his career, allowing well under a hit per IP. His problem has been control - he's amassed an ugly 5.1 BB/9 over his pro career so far. If he can lose some weight and focus on throwing more strikes, I think he'll find his way back to the Majors before too much time goes by.
C - Joe Mauer
Oh yeah, don't forget about this guy. I'm sure his rehab will progress agonizingly slowly, but it sounds like he should be able to rejoin the team by the end of April. And this year, because of the extra week of spring training, April only has 22 games in it. As long as he can stick around and perform the way he did last year, I'll be satisfied with 140 or so games from the reigning batting champ.
IF - Matt Tolbert
I'm sure it broke Gardy's heart to have to cut Tolbert, so he'll certainly be the first guy called up if anything happens to an infielder. A switch-hitter with pretty good speed, Tolbert can play any of the IF positions (although his stint at 1B this week wasn't inspiring, while Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris both did OK over there) and could even be used in the OF in a pinch. He's hit pretty well at every level but AA (even in his rehab assignment last year he didn't do well there) and has generally been a high-percentage base stealer. Pretty similar to Nick Punto or Denny Hocking: the ideal guy to have on your bench (when you have a big enough bench).
IF - Luke Hughes
Next on the IF depth chart would probably be Hughes. Other than a lousy time at A+ Fort Myers, he's been a pretty good hitter, and last year he absolutely exploded in a season split between New Britain and Rochester. He's never been much of a fielder, unfortunately, but at this stage he doesn't look any worse than Buscher, who has worked to improve his glove since arriving with the Twins. Hughes is still young enough at 24 to have some upside. He'll be a September call-up if the team doesn't need him before that.
OF - Jason Pridie
The last piece of the Delmon Young trade, Pridie was brought in to compete for the CF job vacated by Torii Hunter. This was before the Twins had acquired Carlos Gomez or realized that Denard Span had figured out how to hit. Pridie quickly fell by the wayside, staying the whole year at Rochester and putting up a .270/.305/.435 line with a Gomez-esque 152/30 K/BB ratio. Still, he has terrific range in the OF and is a pretty high percentage base-stealer, so he wouldn't be a bad guy to have on the bench as a defensive sub or PR. With over 200 AAA games under his belt already, he'll likely be the first guy they call if one of the outfielders goes down.
SP - Kevin Mulvey
With Philip Humber, Brian Duensing and R.A. Dickey all capable of providing the Twins with spot starts, it will probably be a couple of months before Mulvey is considered to fill in for one of the Twins' starters. He had mixed results for the Red Wings last season, increasing his K/9 rate but also elevating his BB/9 and HR/9. He was better in the second half, and, at 23 years old, there's still plenty of time for him to figure things out. I'm guessing that his performance will get people talking about him as the summer rolls along, and that he may put the Twins in position to make an interesting trade at the end of July.
RP - Jose Mijares
After the way Mijares pitched for the Twins last September, a bullpen spot was his to lose this spring. And lose it he did, showing up for camp out of shape and struggling through just about every appearance he made. He's been a tremendous strikeout pitcher throughout his career, allowing well under a hit per IP. His problem has been control - he's amassed an ugly 5.1 BB/9 over his pro career so far. If he can lose some weight and focus on throwing more strikes, I think he'll find his way back to the Majors before too much time goes by.
C - Joe Mauer
Oh yeah, don't forget about this guy. I'm sure his rehab will progress agonizingly slowly, but it sounds like he should be able to rejoin the team by the end of April. And this year, because of the extra week of spring training, April only has 22 games in it. As long as he can stick around and perform the way he did last year, I'll be satisfied with 140 or so games from the reigning batting champ.
Friday, April 3, 2009
2009 Twins Preview: Bench
At last, the Twins finalized their roster after today's tie with the Pirates. Matt Tolbert was the last guy to make the team in 2008, and he was the last guy cut this year. Though he had a pretty nice spring, it wasn't as nice as these guys:
IF - Brian Buscher
If you look at Buscher's minor league stats, you'll notice a slow progression from bad starts at each level to mediocre finishes once he got comfortable - until 2007, when he came to the Twins in the minor league Rule 5 draft. His power numbers exploded, corresponding with a staggering improvement in his K/BB ratio. It obviously clicked for him which pitches he should be swinging at. Buscher wasn't impressive in his time with Twins in 2007 and he had a rough spring training in 2008, earning him a trip back to Rochester, where he was even more dominant than the previous year. As down as many were on his performance with the Twins last year, it was still a .078 improvement in OPS over his first stint. He's had a monster spring, .382/.462/.545 with 2 HR and a 7/9 K/BB ratio in 55 AB, while playing errorless defense at the corner infield spots. With nothing left to prove at AAA, and with Morneau's balky back, there was no question he'd make the team. I hope he'll get plenty of opportunities to hit this year - I think he's ready to contribute at this level, particularly if he hardly ever faces lefties.
Expected line: .280/.350/.450, 250 AB, 9 HR, 18 2B, 25 BB, 35 K
IF - Brendan Harris
I was down on Harris for the first half of last year, thanks to his inadequate defensive range at 2B and SS and a plethora of called 3rd strikes. But he really grew on me in the 2nd half, shrinking his K/BB rate from about 3/1 to 5/3 and raising his OPS nearly a hundred points in the process. He's played everywhere in the infield this spring, making every play he should and a few he shouldn't, while hitting .317/.423/.417 with a 9/9 K/BB rate in 60 AB. His speed isn't much of an asset off the bench, so I look for him to PH in situations where a slappy single from Punto or Casilla won't quite get the job done, particularly vs. LHP. With Luke Hughes offering a similar skill set at Rochester with perhaps more power upside, I wouldn't be surprised to see Harris dealt at some point during the season.
Expected line: .275/.335/.415, 250 AB, 5 HR, 15 2B, 20 BB, 45 K
LF - Delmon Young
The Twins gave up a lot to get Young last offseason, and he didn't deliver anything close to the expectations many had lain on him. This offseason, Gardy let it slip that Young was not guaranteed a starting job this spring, perhaps as a ploy to keep him motivated. Has it worked? Young came to Fort Myers in great shape, made a concerted effort to pull the ball more often, and has a fine .302/.323/.508 line with 3 HR in 63 AB to show for it. He's looked better in the field, too. My concern is that he hasn't drawn a walk all spring - he'll need to get the OBP into the .350s before he can really be dangerous. Still, he seems to be making strides, and he's only 23. My guess is he'll start no fewer than 2 of 3 games this season.
Expected line: .300/.340/.450, 500 AB, 15 HR, 25 2B, 30 BB, 90 K
C - Jose Morales
When it became clear that Joe Mauer wouldn't be able to start the season with the Twins, they had to decide whether they wanted Mike Redmond's backup to be Drew Butera, a good defender who barely hit .250 at AA, or Morales, a so-so backstop who's hit over .300 in 2 seasons at Rochester. They wisely went with Morales, a switch-hitter who may be able to contribute enough to the offense to make up for his defensive shortcomings. Depending on Mauer's condition when he returns, it may make sense to keep Morales around for awhile as insurance, and he wouldn't be a bad bat to have off the bench late in games. I wish him the best of luck, but I hope the Twins don't need him for long.
Expected line: .280/.310/.370, 100 AB, 1 HR, 6 2B, 4 BB, 15 K
IF - Brian Buscher
If you look at Buscher's minor league stats, you'll notice a slow progression from bad starts at each level to mediocre finishes once he got comfortable - until 2007, when he came to the Twins in the minor league Rule 5 draft. His power numbers exploded, corresponding with a staggering improvement in his K/BB ratio. It obviously clicked for him which pitches he should be swinging at. Buscher wasn't impressive in his time with Twins in 2007 and he had a rough spring training in 2008, earning him a trip back to Rochester, where he was even more dominant than the previous year. As down as many were on his performance with the Twins last year, it was still a .078 improvement in OPS over his first stint. He's had a monster spring, .382/.462/.545 with 2 HR and a 7/9 K/BB ratio in 55 AB, while playing errorless defense at the corner infield spots. With nothing left to prove at AAA, and with Morneau's balky back, there was no question he'd make the team. I hope he'll get plenty of opportunities to hit this year - I think he's ready to contribute at this level, particularly if he hardly ever faces lefties.
Expected line: .280/.350/.450, 250 AB, 9 HR, 18 2B, 25 BB, 35 K
IF - Brendan Harris
I was down on Harris for the first half of last year, thanks to his inadequate defensive range at 2B and SS and a plethora of called 3rd strikes. But he really grew on me in the 2nd half, shrinking his K/BB rate from about 3/1 to 5/3 and raising his OPS nearly a hundred points in the process. He's played everywhere in the infield this spring, making every play he should and a few he shouldn't, while hitting .317/.423/.417 with a 9/9 K/BB rate in 60 AB. His speed isn't much of an asset off the bench, so I look for him to PH in situations where a slappy single from Punto or Casilla won't quite get the job done, particularly vs. LHP. With Luke Hughes offering a similar skill set at Rochester with perhaps more power upside, I wouldn't be surprised to see Harris dealt at some point during the season.
Expected line: .275/.335/.415, 250 AB, 5 HR, 15 2B, 20 BB, 45 K
LF - Delmon Young
The Twins gave up a lot to get Young last offseason, and he didn't deliver anything close to the expectations many had lain on him. This offseason, Gardy let it slip that Young was not guaranteed a starting job this spring, perhaps as a ploy to keep him motivated. Has it worked? Young came to Fort Myers in great shape, made a concerted effort to pull the ball more often, and has a fine .302/.323/.508 line with 3 HR in 63 AB to show for it. He's looked better in the field, too. My concern is that he hasn't drawn a walk all spring - he'll need to get the OBP into the .350s before he can really be dangerous. Still, he seems to be making strides, and he's only 23. My guess is he'll start no fewer than 2 of 3 games this season.
Expected line: .300/.340/.450, 500 AB, 15 HR, 25 2B, 30 BB, 90 K
C - Jose Morales
When it became clear that Joe Mauer wouldn't be able to start the season with the Twins, they had to decide whether they wanted Mike Redmond's backup to be Drew Butera, a good defender who barely hit .250 at AA, or Morales, a so-so backstop who's hit over .300 in 2 seasons at Rochester. They wisely went with Morales, a switch-hitter who may be able to contribute enough to the offense to make up for his defensive shortcomings. Depending on Mauer's condition when he returns, it may make sense to keep Morales around for awhile as insurance, and he wouldn't be a bad bat to have off the bench late in games. I wish him the best of luck, but I hope the Twins don't need him for long.
Expected line: .280/.310/.370, 100 AB, 1 HR, 6 2B, 4 BB, 15 K
Thursday, April 2, 2009
2009 Twins Preview: Bullpen
Scott Baker pitched his final tuneup before his opening night start for the AAA club on Wednesday. He threw 5 scoreless innings, allowing just 3 H and striking out 4. We woke up Thursday morning to find that he had been placed on the 15-day DL with shoulder stiffness.
Whaaaa?
They didn't even want to wait 24 hours to see if he felt better? This move strikes me as an overreaction. But it certainly clarifies the remainder of the Twins' (now justifiably, at least temporarily) 12-man pitching staff. Liriano will shift up 1 slot to opening night, Blackburn will pitch Tuesday instead of Friday, and RA Dickey will make the club as the #5 for the first time through the rotation. (Wouldn't it make more sense for Dickey to start on Tuesday against Seattle? Not only would that minimize the disruption in routine for Blackburn, but it would get Dickey's knuckler indoors, where it will supposedly be more effective. I can't shake the feeling that the Twins are really hoping that Dickey will blow it one of these outings so that they can have some evidence for why he should be at Rochester.) Philip Humber and Brian Duensing both make the bullpen:
Closer - Joe Nathan
At this point, I would say that the AJ Pierzynski trade with the Giants would have been a great trade for the Twins if it had been for just Nathan straight up. He's been among the top closers in baseball since coming the Twins in 2004, 4 times posting ERAs under 2.00 and never allowing more than 5 HR in a season or posting a K/BB ratio lower than 3.86. The shoulder discomfort that kept him out of the WBC was scary and is something we'll have to keep an eye on, but at this point there's no indication that he's not 100%. And 100% of Joe Nathan is awfully good.
Expected line: 70 IP, 2.00 ERA, 5 HR, 20 BB, 75 K
RHP - Jesse Crain
I was pleased with what Crain was able to bring in 2008, less than a year after undergoing major shoulder surgery. His velocity was high, he had good movement on his pitches, and he was able to slightly surpass his K/9 from 2006, though his walk rate was the worst since 2005. It's easy to look at his 2008 and remember the consecutive losses he suffered early in the Twins' disastrous 14-game road trip in late August, but he was excellent in 9 September appearances and has looked very sharp this spring. I believe he'll get a chance to hold the 8th inning setup job to start the season, and he looks as though he can handle it as well as anyone the Twins have right now.
Expected line: 70 IP, 3.50 ERA, 6 HR, 25 BB, 55 K
LHP - Craig Breslow
Claiming Breslow off waivers in May was the only incontrovertibly good move Bill Smith has made in his brief tenure as GM of the Twins. A high-strikeout guy who was hurting himself with walks, he only needed the tutelage of pitching coach Rick Anderson to bring them down from about 6 BB/9 to 3.25. He didn't allow any ER over his final 12 IP, and has looked just as good this spring. Regrettably, he's slotted in for the Dennys Reyes role, i.e. get the lefty out. I say regrettable, because Breslow's performance against righties suggests that he might be a very effective 7th or 8th inning guy, rather than just wasting him on 1 or 2 matchups. Hopefully, Gardy will use him more liberally than he did Reyes, but I'm reluctant to expect anything more than Reyes numbers from him this year.
Expected line: 50 IP, 3.00 ERA, 2 HR, 20 BB, 40 K
RHP - Matt Guerrier
Perhaps no single Twin was more responsible for the team coming up just short last season than Matt Guerrier. A long reliever in 2005-06, he stepped into Jesse Crain's role in 2007 and enjoyed the lowest ERA and WHIP of his career while landing among the league leaders in IP among relievers. He attempted to fill Pat Neshek's shoes last year, and did rather well for about half the season before the previous year's workload seemed to catch up to him. On June 30th, he was 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA. From that game on, his ERA ballooned to 7.45 as he suffered 7 excruciating losses. It sounds like they'll try to use him a little less this season, and certainly keep him away from high leverage situations. He's looked good his last few outings this spring, so I'm optimistic he'll be able to bounce back closer to the performance we grew accustomed to in previous seasons.
Expected line: 70 IP, 4.00 ERA, 9 HR, 25 BB, 55 K
RHP - Luis Ayala
The Twins went looking (sort of) for bullpen help this offseason, and Ayala is what they found. Like Guerrier, he's coming off of the first crappy season of his career, having been a part of the Mets' late-season melt-down that cost them a playoff spot. Glancing at his stats, there's nothing that jumps out to explain why his ERA should have nearly doubled. He had similar K/9, pitches per plate appearance and inning, and better BB/9 numbers than in some of his earlier, successful seasons. He allowed a higher BAA and HR/9, but not so much higher that they would explain that kind of performance. Mostly, it seems like he just didn't strand as many runners as usual, and that's the sort of thing that can really change year-to-year. He should be more or less back to his career norms this year.
Expected line: 75 IP, 4.00 ERA, 8 HR, 17 BB, 50 K
RHP - Philip Humber
It would be stretching things to say that Humber earned a spot on the team this spring. But since he was one of the components of the Johan Santana trade with the Mets, the Twins are loath to let him just slip away on waivers, so here he is. He was the 3rd overall pick in the 2004 draft, but almost immediately had to undergo Tommy John surgery. The Mets scooted him up to AAA after just over 150 pro IP anyway, and he responded by leading the PCL in WHIP in 2007. No such luck in the pitcher-friendlier IL, where he bounced in and out of the rotation for Rochester before finishing the summer strongly and pitching decently in a September call-up. I have no idea what kind of reliever he'll be, but I'm not expecting too much.
Expected line: 70 IP, 4.50 ERA, 10 HR, 23 BB, 50 K
RHP - R.A. Dickey
The Twins signed Dickey to minor-league deal last winter, only to have the Mariners promptly steal him in the Rule 5 draft. Like all the M's pitchers, Dickey had a lousy season, but the Twins brought him back to camp this year. What were they hoping to see from him? Whatever it was, he surely exceeded it. In 17.2 IP this spring, he has a 2.04 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 9.17 K/9 and 2.04 BB/9. Those numbers far surpassed anything the other bubble guys put up, and yet Scott Baker had to get hurt before the Twins would give Dickey a spot on the team. It'll be a tough assignment pitching in Chicago. Even if he succeeds, I don't know if the Twins will really want to keep him up. Has he perfected his knuckleball, or have the conditions just been favorable this spring? I have to doubt he can continue to do what he's done in March.
Expected line: 20 IP, 5.00 ERA, 3 HR, 8 BB, 15 K
LHP - Brian Duensing
A typical product of the Twins' system, Duensing has excellent control (2.2 BB/9) and pitches to contact (6.5 K/9). He was at AAA less than 2 years after he was drafted, but took a step backward in his full season there in 2008. With Jose Mijares falling by the wayside, the Twins would like to give Duensing a shot at the bullpen, a la Glen Perkins in 2007, rather than send him back for a third season at AAA. He had a pretty nice spring in terms of ERA, but allowed BB and HR at a much higher rate and amassed K at a much lower rate than he had with the Red Wings. That does not spell success against major league hitters. Though they'll try to set him up for success by having him face primarily LH batters, that did not help him vs. Carlos Pena earlier this week. I think we're in for a repeat of Baker circa 2006 here. Mercifully, it shouldn't last long.
Expected line: 25 IP, 5.50 ERA, 5 HR, 9 BB, 12 K
Overall, I think we're in store for only a slightly better performance from the 'pen in 2009. However, it should be easier to hide the shortcomings, because the starters will be doing a lot more, and the defense behind them should be better as well. Look for the Twins' runs allowed to go way down this year, to around 700. That should just about make up for the inevitable drop in runs scored.
Whaaaa?
They didn't even want to wait 24 hours to see if he felt better? This move strikes me as an overreaction. But it certainly clarifies the remainder of the Twins' (now justifiably, at least temporarily) 12-man pitching staff. Liriano will shift up 1 slot to opening night, Blackburn will pitch Tuesday instead of Friday, and RA Dickey will make the club as the #5 for the first time through the rotation. (Wouldn't it make more sense for Dickey to start on Tuesday against Seattle? Not only would that minimize the disruption in routine for Blackburn, but it would get Dickey's knuckler indoors, where it will supposedly be more effective. I can't shake the feeling that the Twins are really hoping that Dickey will blow it one of these outings so that they can have some evidence for why he should be at Rochester.) Philip Humber and Brian Duensing both make the bullpen:
Closer - Joe Nathan
At this point, I would say that the AJ Pierzynski trade with the Giants would have been a great trade for the Twins if it had been for just Nathan straight up. He's been among the top closers in baseball since coming the Twins in 2004, 4 times posting ERAs under 2.00 and never allowing more than 5 HR in a season or posting a K/BB ratio lower than 3.86. The shoulder discomfort that kept him out of the WBC was scary and is something we'll have to keep an eye on, but at this point there's no indication that he's not 100%. And 100% of Joe Nathan is awfully good.
Expected line: 70 IP, 2.00 ERA, 5 HR, 20 BB, 75 K
RHP - Jesse Crain
I was pleased with what Crain was able to bring in 2008, less than a year after undergoing major shoulder surgery. His velocity was high, he had good movement on his pitches, and he was able to slightly surpass his K/9 from 2006, though his walk rate was the worst since 2005. It's easy to look at his 2008 and remember the consecutive losses he suffered early in the Twins' disastrous 14-game road trip in late August, but he was excellent in 9 September appearances and has looked very sharp this spring. I believe he'll get a chance to hold the 8th inning setup job to start the season, and he looks as though he can handle it as well as anyone the Twins have right now.
Expected line: 70 IP, 3.50 ERA, 6 HR, 25 BB, 55 K
LHP - Craig Breslow
Claiming Breslow off waivers in May was the only incontrovertibly good move Bill Smith has made in his brief tenure as GM of the Twins. A high-strikeout guy who was hurting himself with walks, he only needed the tutelage of pitching coach Rick Anderson to bring them down from about 6 BB/9 to 3.25. He didn't allow any ER over his final 12 IP, and has looked just as good this spring. Regrettably, he's slotted in for the Dennys Reyes role, i.e. get the lefty out. I say regrettable, because Breslow's performance against righties suggests that he might be a very effective 7th or 8th inning guy, rather than just wasting him on 1 or 2 matchups. Hopefully, Gardy will use him more liberally than he did Reyes, but I'm reluctant to expect anything more than Reyes numbers from him this year.
Expected line: 50 IP, 3.00 ERA, 2 HR, 20 BB, 40 K
RHP - Matt Guerrier
Perhaps no single Twin was more responsible for the team coming up just short last season than Matt Guerrier. A long reliever in 2005-06, he stepped into Jesse Crain's role in 2007 and enjoyed the lowest ERA and WHIP of his career while landing among the league leaders in IP among relievers. He attempted to fill Pat Neshek's shoes last year, and did rather well for about half the season before the previous year's workload seemed to catch up to him. On June 30th, he was 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA. From that game on, his ERA ballooned to 7.45 as he suffered 7 excruciating losses. It sounds like they'll try to use him a little less this season, and certainly keep him away from high leverage situations. He's looked good his last few outings this spring, so I'm optimistic he'll be able to bounce back closer to the performance we grew accustomed to in previous seasons.
Expected line: 70 IP, 4.00 ERA, 9 HR, 25 BB, 55 K
RHP - Luis Ayala
The Twins went looking (sort of) for bullpen help this offseason, and Ayala is what they found. Like Guerrier, he's coming off of the first crappy season of his career, having been a part of the Mets' late-season melt-down that cost them a playoff spot. Glancing at his stats, there's nothing that jumps out to explain why his ERA should have nearly doubled. He had similar K/9, pitches per plate appearance and inning, and better BB/9 numbers than in some of his earlier, successful seasons. He allowed a higher BAA and HR/9, but not so much higher that they would explain that kind of performance. Mostly, it seems like he just didn't strand as many runners as usual, and that's the sort of thing that can really change year-to-year. He should be more or less back to his career norms this year.
Expected line: 75 IP, 4.00 ERA, 8 HR, 17 BB, 50 K
RHP - Philip Humber
It would be stretching things to say that Humber earned a spot on the team this spring. But since he was one of the components of the Johan Santana trade with the Mets, the Twins are loath to let him just slip away on waivers, so here he is. He was the 3rd overall pick in the 2004 draft, but almost immediately had to undergo Tommy John surgery. The Mets scooted him up to AAA after just over 150 pro IP anyway, and he responded by leading the PCL in WHIP in 2007. No such luck in the pitcher-friendlier IL, where he bounced in and out of the rotation for Rochester before finishing the summer strongly and pitching decently in a September call-up. I have no idea what kind of reliever he'll be, but I'm not expecting too much.
Expected line: 70 IP, 4.50 ERA, 10 HR, 23 BB, 50 K
RHP - R.A. Dickey
The Twins signed Dickey to minor-league deal last winter, only to have the Mariners promptly steal him in the Rule 5 draft. Like all the M's pitchers, Dickey had a lousy season, but the Twins brought him back to camp this year. What were they hoping to see from him? Whatever it was, he surely exceeded it. In 17.2 IP this spring, he has a 2.04 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 9.17 K/9 and 2.04 BB/9. Those numbers far surpassed anything the other bubble guys put up, and yet Scott Baker had to get hurt before the Twins would give Dickey a spot on the team. It'll be a tough assignment pitching in Chicago. Even if he succeeds, I don't know if the Twins will really want to keep him up. Has he perfected his knuckleball, or have the conditions just been favorable this spring? I have to doubt he can continue to do what he's done in March.
Expected line: 20 IP, 5.00 ERA, 3 HR, 8 BB, 15 K
LHP - Brian Duensing
A typical product of the Twins' system, Duensing has excellent control (2.2 BB/9) and pitches to contact (6.5 K/9). He was at AAA less than 2 years after he was drafted, but took a step backward in his full season there in 2008. With Jose Mijares falling by the wayside, the Twins would like to give Duensing a shot at the bullpen, a la Glen Perkins in 2007, rather than send him back for a third season at AAA. He had a pretty nice spring in terms of ERA, but allowed BB and HR at a much higher rate and amassed K at a much lower rate than he had with the Red Wings. That does not spell success against major league hitters. Though they'll try to set him up for success by having him face primarily LH batters, that did not help him vs. Carlos Pena earlier this week. I think we're in for a repeat of Baker circa 2006 here. Mercifully, it shouldn't last long.
Expected line: 25 IP, 5.50 ERA, 5 HR, 9 BB, 12 K
Overall, I think we're in store for only a slightly better performance from the 'pen in 2009. However, it should be easier to hide the shortcomings, because the starters will be doing a lot more, and the defense behind them should be better as well. Look for the Twins' runs allowed to go way down this year, to around 700. That should just about make up for the inevitable drop in runs scored.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
2009 Twins Preview: Lineup
Given the injury situation the Twins are facing this week, here's the likely starting lineup for Monday's opener vs. Seattle RHP Felix Hernandez:
LF - Denard Span
I don't know if Span had a bigger booster than me last year. From the approach he showed in spring training it was apparent to me that he was better prepared to succeed in the Majors than Carlos Gomez. He was batting .340/.434/.481 through 40 games at Rochester when he was brought up to fill in for the injured Michael Cuddyer a 2nd time. He took the leadoff spot from Gomez by the end of July and finished the year hitting .294/.387/.432 with 18/25 SB and a surprising 6 HR (nearly matching the 7 he'd hit in his first 5 pro seasons). He struck out in 17.3% of his AB, consistent with his minor league average 17.0%. But the biggest improvement was in his isolated discipline of .093, considerably higher than his .070 in the minors. He also made several spectacular, run-saving plays in RF.
Span's performance this spring has me greatly concerned. After today's game, in which he produced 3 grounders and a pop-up, his line is .158/.244/.237. His IsoD for the spring stands at .086, so his leadoff approach is there, although he's still taking a lot of called strikeouts, keeping his K rate rather high at 18.4%. The real trouble is that he's just not hitting any line drives. I'd like to write it off as a spring training small sample size thing, but he's had 86 plate appearances. I don't know if his swing is off or if he's hacking at the wrong pitches, but he's not right. He'll get plenty of opportunities early in the season to turn it around, and the Twins' chances this season depend on him doing so, particularly with Mauer's OBP out of the lineup for awhile. He's hit for pretty good averages throughout his pro career, so I'll certainly give him the benefit of the doubt, but I'm worried right now.
Expected line: .265/.350/.340, 3 HR, 25 SB, 90 K, 70 BB
2B - Alexi Casilla
Recalled in May after a rash of injuries to the middle infielders, Casilla got the Twins rolling on their outrageous RISP numbers, driving in 35 runs between mid-May and the first week of July. Like Span, he came into the season with 7 career minor league HR, then hit 7 in 2/3 of a season in the Majors. He missed about 3 weeks in August with an injury, and wasn't the same confident hitter he'd been up to that point (.313/.351/.424 before the injury, .225/.299/.289 afterward).
Which Casilla can we expect in 2009? For the most part, he's been a good average hitter throughout his pro career, with a good K/BB ratio and little power. His performances in winter ball and spring training (.308/.352/.369) reflect that. A big piece of his game that was missing in 2008 was SB - he had 49 SB in 2005 and 2006 and 35 in 2007, but just 11 in 16 attempts last year. I'd like to see him run a lot more, particularly when he's not hitting in front of Mauer's 400+ OBP.
Expected line: .285/.360/.370, 3 HR, 25 SB, 70 K, 50 BB
DH - Jason Kubel
It wasn't the breakout year many of us had hoped for, but 2008 was still another step in the right direction for Kubel. Though his BA and OBP were essentially identical to those of his middling 2007, he added .021 points of SLG% thanks to a career-high 20 HR. His doubles were down from the previous year, but that may have been the result of defenders making a lot of running catches in the gaps, something I recall happening to Kubel rather often. His overall line was dragged down by a rough April in which he posted a 20/3 K/BB ratio. Once he sorted himself out, those numbers were better than 2/1 for the rest of the season. It'd be easy to look at Kubel's last 2 seasons and conclude that he's a .273/.335/.460 hitter, but I see his 2008 as that of a .300/.360/.500 hitter who had some bad luck. That evens out this year.
Expected line: .295/.360/.510, 20 HR, 30 2B, 90 K, 50 BB
1B - Justin Morneau
Another slow 2nd half, particularly in September, cost Morneau a 2nd MVP award and the Twins a post-season berth. He dropped off the 30 HR pace he had set in 2006-2007, but made up for it with a surge in doubles. Despite his lower 2nd half numbers, he managed to drive in 20 or more runs in every month of the season. Most importantly, his K/BB rate narrowed for the 3rd straight year. Morneau is in his prime, and he and the Twins have hopefully learned that he needs a day off here and there late in the season in order to maintain his level of performance. Maybe a day off every 2 weeks after July will do the trick. The HR numbers are going to come back, the doubles and walks should remain high, and Morneau should receive a ton of MVP votes once again.
Expected line: .295/.370/.525, 30 HR, 40 2B, 85 K, 75 BB
RF - Michael Cuddyer
After an apparent breakout campaign in 2006, Cuddyer has seen his numbers diminished by freak injuries in the subsequent seasons. Determined to give the Twins a full season this year, he's come to camp in great shape and hit a promising .286/.328/.500 in spring training. His range in RF won't measure up to that of Span, but his strong, accurate arm will make up for it somewhat. He's also managed to quietly steal a handful of bases each year at a high rate of success. If he can keep himself on the field, I look for Cuddyer to be the Twins' best all-around RH bat this year.
Expected line: .280/.360/.450, 18 HR, 32 2B, 100 K, 50 BB
3B - Joe Crede
Like Cuddyer, Crede hasn't been able to continue his success from 2006 due to injuries. His injuries have been much more nagging than Cuddyer's, relating to his back, and there's good reason to doubt that he'll be able to hold up through 81 games on field turf. Even when good, Crede's never been much of an average or OBP guy, hitting a very high percentage of fly balls. His defense is generally very good, so he should save the Twins a few runs there. If he holds up, he should be a decent bottom of the order guy, but I honestly expect more from Delmon Young than from Crede this year.
Expected line: .260/.310/.450, 22 HR, 25 2B, 75 K, 30 BB
C - Mike Redmond
We certainly hope Redmond won't be the starting catcher for very long, since he turns 38 a month into the season was never close to Joe Mauer in ability even when he was young. He's been a rock-solid backup for the last 4 years, putting up averages around .300 and doing a great job defensively and calling games. He's had an encouraging spring at the plate, hitting doubles at his 2006 rate and drawing walks. He'll need to keep that up to keep from being a huge drag on the offense. I don't want to project him for too many PA here - I'm hoping Mauer will be back within a few weeks.
Expected line - .290/.345/.350, 0 HR, 12 2B, 18 K, 14 BB
SS - Nick Punto
As he did in 2006, Punto rescued the Twins from a poor free agent signing in 2008, this time at SS. During the offseason, the Twins decided to forego any pursuit of other free agents and signed him to be the starter at short for at least the next 2 years. His bat plays much better there than at 3rd, and his defense is more than adequate. I'd prefer to see him batting 9th, but perhaps Mr. Gomez can play well enough to necessitate that shift later in the season. Punto has yo-yoed between good and awful at the plate over the past 3 seasons. This year, I'll be OK with OK.
Expected line: .250/.320/.350, 1 HR, 25 2B, 20 SB, 90 K, 50 BB
CF - Carlos Gomez
Though I enjoyed his antics from time to time, I wasn't much of a Gomez fan last season. Constantly giving away AB and missing the cutoff man gets on my nerves. His 142/25 K/BB ratio made him among the worst hitters in the game last year. I came into the offseason believing that a trip to Rochester would be the best thing for him to begin 2009, but September, winter ball and spring training have given me hope that Go-Go is starting to get a clue. He's playing better defense, drawing far more walks, taking the ball to the opposite field, and stealing bases at his early 2008 rate. If he can carry that approach into the season, we all know that he has the tools to be a great player.
Expected line: .270/.330/.400, 7 HR, 7 3B, 35 SB, 100 K, 30 BB
LF - Denard Span
I don't know if Span had a bigger booster than me last year. From the approach he showed in spring training it was apparent to me that he was better prepared to succeed in the Majors than Carlos Gomez. He was batting .340/.434/.481 through 40 games at Rochester when he was brought up to fill in for the injured Michael Cuddyer a 2nd time. He took the leadoff spot from Gomez by the end of July and finished the year hitting .294/.387/.432 with 18/25 SB and a surprising 6 HR (nearly matching the 7 he'd hit in his first 5 pro seasons). He struck out in 17.3% of his AB, consistent with his minor league average 17.0%. But the biggest improvement was in his isolated discipline of .093, considerably higher than his .070 in the minors. He also made several spectacular, run-saving plays in RF.
Span's performance this spring has me greatly concerned. After today's game, in which he produced 3 grounders and a pop-up, his line is .158/.244/.237. His IsoD for the spring stands at .086, so his leadoff approach is there, although he's still taking a lot of called strikeouts, keeping his K rate rather high at 18.4%. The real trouble is that he's just not hitting any line drives. I'd like to write it off as a spring training small sample size thing, but he's had 86 plate appearances. I don't know if his swing is off or if he's hacking at the wrong pitches, but he's not right. He'll get plenty of opportunities early in the season to turn it around, and the Twins' chances this season depend on him doing so, particularly with Mauer's OBP out of the lineup for awhile. He's hit for pretty good averages throughout his pro career, so I'll certainly give him the benefit of the doubt, but I'm worried right now.
Expected line: .265/.350/.340, 3 HR, 25 SB, 90 K, 70 BB
2B - Alexi Casilla
Recalled in May after a rash of injuries to the middle infielders, Casilla got the Twins rolling on their outrageous RISP numbers, driving in 35 runs between mid-May and the first week of July. Like Span, he came into the season with 7 career minor league HR, then hit 7 in 2/3 of a season in the Majors. He missed about 3 weeks in August with an injury, and wasn't the same confident hitter he'd been up to that point (.313/.351/.424 before the injury, .225/.299/.289 afterward).
Which Casilla can we expect in 2009? For the most part, he's been a good average hitter throughout his pro career, with a good K/BB ratio and little power. His performances in winter ball and spring training (.308/.352/.369) reflect that. A big piece of his game that was missing in 2008 was SB - he had 49 SB in 2005 and 2006 and 35 in 2007, but just 11 in 16 attempts last year. I'd like to see him run a lot more, particularly when he's not hitting in front of Mauer's 400+ OBP.
Expected line: .285/.360/.370, 3 HR, 25 SB, 70 K, 50 BB
DH - Jason Kubel
It wasn't the breakout year many of us had hoped for, but 2008 was still another step in the right direction for Kubel. Though his BA and OBP were essentially identical to those of his middling 2007, he added .021 points of SLG% thanks to a career-high 20 HR. His doubles were down from the previous year, but that may have been the result of defenders making a lot of running catches in the gaps, something I recall happening to Kubel rather often. His overall line was dragged down by a rough April in which he posted a 20/3 K/BB ratio. Once he sorted himself out, those numbers were better than 2/1 for the rest of the season. It'd be easy to look at Kubel's last 2 seasons and conclude that he's a .273/.335/.460 hitter, but I see his 2008 as that of a .300/.360/.500 hitter who had some bad luck. That evens out this year.
Expected line: .295/.360/.510, 20 HR, 30 2B, 90 K, 50 BB
1B - Justin Morneau
Another slow 2nd half, particularly in September, cost Morneau a 2nd MVP award and the Twins a post-season berth. He dropped off the 30 HR pace he had set in 2006-2007, but made up for it with a surge in doubles. Despite his lower 2nd half numbers, he managed to drive in 20 or more runs in every month of the season. Most importantly, his K/BB rate narrowed for the 3rd straight year. Morneau is in his prime, and he and the Twins have hopefully learned that he needs a day off here and there late in the season in order to maintain his level of performance. Maybe a day off every 2 weeks after July will do the trick. The HR numbers are going to come back, the doubles and walks should remain high, and Morneau should receive a ton of MVP votes once again.
Expected line: .295/.370/.525, 30 HR, 40 2B, 85 K, 75 BB
RF - Michael Cuddyer
After an apparent breakout campaign in 2006, Cuddyer has seen his numbers diminished by freak injuries in the subsequent seasons. Determined to give the Twins a full season this year, he's come to camp in great shape and hit a promising .286/.328/.500 in spring training. His range in RF won't measure up to that of Span, but his strong, accurate arm will make up for it somewhat. He's also managed to quietly steal a handful of bases each year at a high rate of success. If he can keep himself on the field, I look for Cuddyer to be the Twins' best all-around RH bat this year.
Expected line: .280/.360/.450, 18 HR, 32 2B, 100 K, 50 BB
3B - Joe Crede
Like Cuddyer, Crede hasn't been able to continue his success from 2006 due to injuries. His injuries have been much more nagging than Cuddyer's, relating to his back, and there's good reason to doubt that he'll be able to hold up through 81 games on field turf. Even when good, Crede's never been much of an average or OBP guy, hitting a very high percentage of fly balls. His defense is generally very good, so he should save the Twins a few runs there. If he holds up, he should be a decent bottom of the order guy, but I honestly expect more from Delmon Young than from Crede this year.
Expected line: .260/.310/.450, 22 HR, 25 2B, 75 K, 30 BB
C - Mike Redmond
We certainly hope Redmond won't be the starting catcher for very long, since he turns 38 a month into the season was never close to Joe Mauer in ability even when he was young. He's been a rock-solid backup for the last 4 years, putting up averages around .300 and doing a great job defensively and calling games. He's had an encouraging spring at the plate, hitting doubles at his 2006 rate and drawing walks. He'll need to keep that up to keep from being a huge drag on the offense. I don't want to project him for too many PA here - I'm hoping Mauer will be back within a few weeks.
Expected line - .290/.345/.350, 0 HR, 12 2B, 18 K, 14 BB
SS - Nick Punto
As he did in 2006, Punto rescued the Twins from a poor free agent signing in 2008, this time at SS. During the offseason, the Twins decided to forego any pursuit of other free agents and signed him to be the starter at short for at least the next 2 years. His bat plays much better there than at 3rd, and his defense is more than adequate. I'd prefer to see him batting 9th, but perhaps Mr. Gomez can play well enough to necessitate that shift later in the season. Punto has yo-yoed between good and awful at the plate over the past 3 seasons. This year, I'll be OK with OK.
Expected line: .250/.320/.350, 1 HR, 25 2B, 20 SB, 90 K, 50 BB
CF - Carlos Gomez
Though I enjoyed his antics from time to time, I wasn't much of a Gomez fan last season. Constantly giving away AB and missing the cutoff man gets on my nerves. His 142/25 K/BB ratio made him among the worst hitters in the game last year. I came into the offseason believing that a trip to Rochester would be the best thing for him to begin 2009, but September, winter ball and spring training have given me hope that Go-Go is starting to get a clue. He's playing better defense, drawing far more walks, taking the ball to the opposite field, and stealing bases at his early 2008 rate. If he can carry that approach into the season, we all know that he has the tools to be a great player.
Expected line: .270/.330/.400, 7 HR, 7 3B, 35 SB, 100 K, 30 BB
Monday, March 30, 2009
2009 Twins Preview: Rotation
I'm going to start breaking down the 25-man roster with the rotation this year, since that seems to be the most settled piece of the team at this point. Instead of giving predictions for each player's stats, I'm going to give expected lines, numbers above which I'll be satisfied, below which I'll be disappointed.
#1 - Scott Baker
Baker earned the opening day start by being the Twins' most consistent starter last season, particularly during their stumbling stretch drive in September. He delivered quality starts in 18 of his 28 games (64%), and completed at least 5 IP in 25 of them. His volatile days of 2006 and early 2007 appear to be behind him - since the 2007 All-Star break he's gone 264 IP with a 3.44 ERA, 0.9 HR/9, 6.9 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. Finally working with the full confidence of his manager, Baker should have no trouble surpassing 200 IP this season. He's going to get hit on certain days, but he'll even that out with shutout brilliance at least as often. I had a lot of confidence in Baker heading into last season, and he certainly didn't do anything to diminish it.
Expected line: 33 GS, 210 IP, 3.75 ERA, 24 HR, 51 BB, 161 K
#2 - Francisco Liriano
Rushed back to the big leagues after sitting out 2007 recovering from Tommy John surgery, Liriano began 2008 with no command and disastrous results in April. He turned things around quickly, and by late June was out-pitching Livan Hernandez to such a degree that Liriano's agent accused the Twins of trying to game his service clock. He finally rejoined the rotation in August, and though he wasn't the otherworldly force we saw in 2006, he was just about unbeatable until his final 3 starts when, like most of the rest of the staff, he ran out of gas. Despite the poor start, his numbers between the Majors and Minors were quite good: 34 GS, 199.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 15 HR, 188 K, 65 BB. I put no stock in his April numbers; his 11 GS in August and September yielded a 2.74 ERA in 65.1 IP with 60 K, 19 BB and 7 HR, 5 of which came in September when the fatigue had set in. If he can continue to improve his command in 2009, he won't need his 2006 stuff to be an elite pitcher.
Expected line: 33 GS, 210 IP, 3.50 ERA, 18 HR, 65 BB, 200 K
#3 - Kevin Slowey
After an injury forced him to leave his first start early and miss the rest of April, Slowey was nearly as consistent as Baker until his last 2 starts of the year, completing at least 5 IP in 22 of 24 starts during that span, including a team-leading 3 CG. With his K/9 rate climbing to 6.9 in 2008 and his BB/9 leading the league, Slowey's only remaining weakness is his propensity to serve up homers. It's telling that, in his 3 rehab starts at Fort Myers and Rochester, he allowed only 3 ER on 4 H with a 19/4 K/BB rate in 13 IP - 3 of those 4 H were HR. Even the minor leaguers can take him deep. There were many times last year where hitters were able to spoil numerous pitches and extend his pitch count, shortening his outings. He'll need to be able to put people away a little more efficiently to get to the next level. This spring, he's allowed just 2 HR in 20.1 IP with an absurd 20/1 K/BB ratio. In his last spring start, he was able to strike out Albert Pujols with the bases loaded to help escape the jam. Needless to say, if he can keep it up, he'll be on his way to stardom.
Expected line: 33 GS, 200 IP, 4.00 ERA, 28 HR, 35 BB, 150 K
#4 - Glen Perkins
For me, Perkins is the #5 starter, but Nick Blackburn's slow recovery from off-season knee surgery has bumped him down. Perkins has never had the good control of the righties in the rotation, and his strong strikeout numbers never made it past AA. His stellar 12-4 record last year was largely the result of stupendous run support. And yet, like Slowey, he managed to give the Twins at least 5 IP in 21 of 23 starts before crashing in late September. Of the 5 starters, Perkins is the one I'd bet on having a significantly worse season in 2009 - he gives up a lot of hits and walks (1.47 WHIP in '08) and HR (almost 1.5/9 IP) and doesn't strike many guys out (fewer than 4.5/9 IP). And yet, no one is having a better spring: in 26 IP he's allowed just 24 H, 6 BB and 0 HR. I'm not sure how he does it. However well he pitches for the bulk of the season, his biggest test will come in September. He hit the wall so hard last year (3.97 ERA with 18 HR allowed in his first 131.2 IP, 7.45 ERA with 7 HR allowed in his last 19.1 IP) that some have questioned whether he'll have the stamina to finish a full season. But he works so efficiently that he should be able to rack up plenty of innings before he gets to that point.
Expected line: 31 GS, 185 IP, 4.75 ERA, 25 HR, 50 BB, 90 K
#5 - Nick Blackburn
Don't let the .500 record fool you - Blackburn was a much better pitcher than Perkins last year. While their K/9 rates were almost identical, Blackburn gave up the same number of BB and 2 fewer HR in 42.1 more IP. Throwing strikes and pitching to contact enables him to be extremely efficient - it was very common for him to complete 6-7 IP last season with around 90 pitches thrown. Gardy was very soft with him last year, and the lingering knee swelling may foster a little of that at the beginning of this season as well, but with a year of experience under his belt and the relative weakness of the Twins' bullpen, Blackburn should be called upon to pitch even deeper into games this year. Like everyone but Baker, Blackburn struggled in September, but dug deep for a pair of solid games against the White Sox in season's final week. He'll need to show better endurance this season as well, but should have no trouble accumulating innings prior to September, as long as Gardy doesn't keep treating him with kid gloves.
Expected line: 32 GS, 200 IP, 4.50 ERA, 23 HR, 41 BB, 99 K
If everyone in this group can keep taking his turn all season, I think they should accumulate at least a combined 1005 IP with a 4.08 ERA. In a typical season, a staff pitches about 1450 innings, so this rotation sets up the bullpen to have a much easier time in '09 (they had to cover 500 IP last year). Along with what I suspect will be a much improved defense, the starters should be able to reduce the Twins' runs allowed enough to make up for the almost certain drop-off in runs that will result for a lower BA with RISP. If that happens, the Twins should still be able to win around 90 games, and that might be enough this year.
#1 - Scott Baker
Baker earned the opening day start by being the Twins' most consistent starter last season, particularly during their stumbling stretch drive in September. He delivered quality starts in 18 of his 28 games (64%), and completed at least 5 IP in 25 of them. His volatile days of 2006 and early 2007 appear to be behind him - since the 2007 All-Star break he's gone 264 IP with a 3.44 ERA, 0.9 HR/9, 6.9 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. Finally working with the full confidence of his manager, Baker should have no trouble surpassing 200 IP this season. He's going to get hit on certain days, but he'll even that out with shutout brilliance at least as often. I had a lot of confidence in Baker heading into last season, and he certainly didn't do anything to diminish it.
Expected line: 33 GS, 210 IP, 3.75 ERA, 24 HR, 51 BB, 161 K
#2 - Francisco Liriano
Rushed back to the big leagues after sitting out 2007 recovering from Tommy John surgery, Liriano began 2008 with no command and disastrous results in April. He turned things around quickly, and by late June was out-pitching Livan Hernandez to such a degree that Liriano's agent accused the Twins of trying to game his service clock. He finally rejoined the rotation in August, and though he wasn't the otherworldly force we saw in 2006, he was just about unbeatable until his final 3 starts when, like most of the rest of the staff, he ran out of gas. Despite the poor start, his numbers between the Majors and Minors were quite good: 34 GS, 199.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 15 HR, 188 K, 65 BB. I put no stock in his April numbers; his 11 GS in August and September yielded a 2.74 ERA in 65.1 IP with 60 K, 19 BB and 7 HR, 5 of which came in September when the fatigue had set in. If he can continue to improve his command in 2009, he won't need his 2006 stuff to be an elite pitcher.
Expected line: 33 GS, 210 IP, 3.50 ERA, 18 HR, 65 BB, 200 K
#3 - Kevin Slowey
After an injury forced him to leave his first start early and miss the rest of April, Slowey was nearly as consistent as Baker until his last 2 starts of the year, completing at least 5 IP in 22 of 24 starts during that span, including a team-leading 3 CG. With his K/9 rate climbing to 6.9 in 2008 and his BB/9 leading the league, Slowey's only remaining weakness is his propensity to serve up homers. It's telling that, in his 3 rehab starts at Fort Myers and Rochester, he allowed only 3 ER on 4 H with a 19/4 K/BB rate in 13 IP - 3 of those 4 H were HR. Even the minor leaguers can take him deep. There were many times last year where hitters were able to spoil numerous pitches and extend his pitch count, shortening his outings. He'll need to be able to put people away a little more efficiently to get to the next level. This spring, he's allowed just 2 HR in 20.1 IP with an absurd 20/1 K/BB ratio. In his last spring start, he was able to strike out Albert Pujols with the bases loaded to help escape the jam. Needless to say, if he can keep it up, he'll be on his way to stardom.
Expected line: 33 GS, 200 IP, 4.00 ERA, 28 HR, 35 BB, 150 K
#4 - Glen Perkins
For me, Perkins is the #5 starter, but Nick Blackburn's slow recovery from off-season knee surgery has bumped him down. Perkins has never had the good control of the righties in the rotation, and his strong strikeout numbers never made it past AA. His stellar 12-4 record last year was largely the result of stupendous run support. And yet, like Slowey, he managed to give the Twins at least 5 IP in 21 of 23 starts before crashing in late September. Of the 5 starters, Perkins is the one I'd bet on having a significantly worse season in 2009 - he gives up a lot of hits and walks (1.47 WHIP in '08) and HR (almost 1.5/9 IP) and doesn't strike many guys out (fewer than 4.5/9 IP). And yet, no one is having a better spring: in 26 IP he's allowed just 24 H, 6 BB and 0 HR. I'm not sure how he does it. However well he pitches for the bulk of the season, his biggest test will come in September. He hit the wall so hard last year (3.97 ERA with 18 HR allowed in his first 131.2 IP, 7.45 ERA with 7 HR allowed in his last 19.1 IP) that some have questioned whether he'll have the stamina to finish a full season. But he works so efficiently that he should be able to rack up plenty of innings before he gets to that point.
Expected line: 31 GS, 185 IP, 4.75 ERA, 25 HR, 50 BB, 90 K
#5 - Nick Blackburn
Don't let the .500 record fool you - Blackburn was a much better pitcher than Perkins last year. While their K/9 rates were almost identical, Blackburn gave up the same number of BB and 2 fewer HR in 42.1 more IP. Throwing strikes and pitching to contact enables him to be extremely efficient - it was very common for him to complete 6-7 IP last season with around 90 pitches thrown. Gardy was very soft with him last year, and the lingering knee swelling may foster a little of that at the beginning of this season as well, but with a year of experience under his belt and the relative weakness of the Twins' bullpen, Blackburn should be called upon to pitch even deeper into games this year. Like everyone but Baker, Blackburn struggled in September, but dug deep for a pair of solid games against the White Sox in season's final week. He'll need to show better endurance this season as well, but should have no trouble accumulating innings prior to September, as long as Gardy doesn't keep treating him with kid gloves.
Expected line: 32 GS, 200 IP, 4.50 ERA, 23 HR, 41 BB, 99 K
If everyone in this group can keep taking his turn all season, I think they should accumulate at least a combined 1005 IP with a 4.08 ERA. In a typical season, a staff pitches about 1450 innings, so this rotation sets up the bullpen to have a much easier time in '09 (they had to cover 500 IP last year). Along with what I suspect will be a much improved defense, the starters should be able to reduce the Twins' runs allowed enough to make up for the almost certain drop-off in runs that will result for a lower BA with RISP. If that happens, the Twins should still be able to win around 90 games, and that might be enough this year.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Latest Projection
In the run-up to last fall's election, a friend tipped me off to Nate Silver's polling projection site, fivethirtyeight.com. Silver called the election with such striking precision that I thought I'd better check out his baseball projection system, PECOTA. It lives at Baseball Prospectus, and I treated myself to a premium subscription after the holidays. After familiarizing myself with a host of new stats (FRAA, WXRL), I checked out how accurately they had predicted the Twins' 2008 performance. They were miles off for most players, and certainly for the team as a whole, which they expected to win 73 games, as I recall (that page has been updated for 2009 now). So while it is nice to see that they anticipate the Twins winning 6 more games than they predicted last year, that still only gets us to 79 wins, 5 games back of Cleveland.
Obviously, I hope they have similarly underestimated the potential of the 2009 Twins as they did last year. The system is weighted toward the results of the previous 3 seasons, so it was understandable that many of the Twins' players would be undervalued when their lousy 2005 and 2007 seasons featured so prominently. But I would have expected much better this year, since the team performed so well in 2006 and 2008. However, the team as a whole is projected to score 769 runs, allow 802 and hit .270/.330/.400. Earlier this winter I calculated that if the Twins' veterans repeated their career averages and the young players, on average, maintained their 2008 performances, the team should score 814 runs, allow 671 and hit .285/.349/.426. Clearly, PECOTA doesn't think many Twins will achieve those performances. There's a lot there to quibble with:
Entering the prime years of his career, Joe Mauer is projected to underperform his career OPS by about .025 points.
In the prime of his career, Justin Morneau is projected to hit only 23 HR - the same number he hit last year after 2 straight 30+ HR campaigns.
They expect Denard Span to steal only 19 bases in 539 PA, just 1 more than he stole in 2008 in 411 PA.
Given 50% of the playing time at 3rd, Brian Buscher is projected to hit .250/.310/.390 (about the same as Carlos Gomez), which would represent a .099 point drop in OPS from his rather timid 2008 performance vs. RHP.
And on and on. As for the pitchers:
No starter is projected to throw more than 175 IP.
Scott Baker should perform in line with his career averages for K and HR, but give up 10% more walks.
Kevin Slowey should more or less match last year's numbers for K and HR, but give up 38% more walks.
Of the relievers, only Joe Nathan is expected to have a WHIP under 1.30. The Twins have had at least 3 pitchers in their bullpen under that mark in every year of Ron Gardenhire's tenure.
There are also some odd allocations of playing time: Jason Pridie gets 15% of the playing time at DH; Boof Bonser, Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey split 29 rather poor starts; Jason Jones and RA Dickey each get 40 IP of long relief.
Basically, some of the contributions that really hurt the Twins' numbers in the projection are really unlikely to happen. Jason Pridie will never be the DH - whatever playing time he gets will be in the field, where his glove can be an asset. If something happens to Jason Kubel that prevents him from suiting up, it's much more likely that someone like Luke Hughes would be called up to fill those ABs.
Jason Jones was the Twins' Rule 5 pickup from the Yankees - he has to stay on the 25-man roster all season or he goes back to NY. Bonser and Humber are both out of options, meaning that they would likely be claimed off waivers if they don't stay on the 25-man all season. With Nathan, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Craig Breslow all locks to fill slots in the 'pen, and newly-signed Luis Ayala also likely to get a spot, that leaves 2 slots open for Bonser, Humber and Jones (assuming the Twins go with a 7-man bullpen). One of those guys, and the negative value he brings with him, will never throw a pitch for the Twins in 2008, and those innings will instead be taken by someone better.
As the spring training competition unfolds, PECOTA will update its projections, and I bet the Twins' expected win total will improve as things progress.
Obviously, I hope they have similarly underestimated the potential of the 2009 Twins as they did last year. The system is weighted toward the results of the previous 3 seasons, so it was understandable that many of the Twins' players would be undervalued when their lousy 2005 and 2007 seasons featured so prominently. But I would have expected much better this year, since the team performed so well in 2006 and 2008. However, the team as a whole is projected to score 769 runs, allow 802 and hit .270/.330/.400. Earlier this winter I calculated that if the Twins' veterans repeated their career averages and the young players, on average, maintained their 2008 performances, the team should score 814 runs, allow 671 and hit .285/.349/.426. Clearly, PECOTA doesn't think many Twins will achieve those performances. There's a lot there to quibble with:
Entering the prime years of his career, Joe Mauer is projected to underperform his career OPS by about .025 points.
In the prime of his career, Justin Morneau is projected to hit only 23 HR - the same number he hit last year after 2 straight 30+ HR campaigns.
They expect Denard Span to steal only 19 bases in 539 PA, just 1 more than he stole in 2008 in 411 PA.
Given 50% of the playing time at 3rd, Brian Buscher is projected to hit .250/.310/.390 (about the same as Carlos Gomez), which would represent a .099 point drop in OPS from his rather timid 2008 performance vs. RHP.
And on and on. As for the pitchers:
No starter is projected to throw more than 175 IP.
Scott Baker should perform in line with his career averages for K and HR, but give up 10% more walks.
Kevin Slowey should more or less match last year's numbers for K and HR, but give up 38% more walks.
Of the relievers, only Joe Nathan is expected to have a WHIP under 1.30. The Twins have had at least 3 pitchers in their bullpen under that mark in every year of Ron Gardenhire's tenure.
There are also some odd allocations of playing time: Jason Pridie gets 15% of the playing time at DH; Boof Bonser, Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey split 29 rather poor starts; Jason Jones and RA Dickey each get 40 IP of long relief.
Basically, some of the contributions that really hurt the Twins' numbers in the projection are really unlikely to happen. Jason Pridie will never be the DH - whatever playing time he gets will be in the field, where his glove can be an asset. If something happens to Jason Kubel that prevents him from suiting up, it's much more likely that someone like Luke Hughes would be called up to fill those ABs.
Jason Jones was the Twins' Rule 5 pickup from the Yankees - he has to stay on the 25-man roster all season or he goes back to NY. Bonser and Humber are both out of options, meaning that they would likely be claimed off waivers if they don't stay on the 25-man all season. With Nathan, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Craig Breslow all locks to fill slots in the 'pen, and newly-signed Luis Ayala also likely to get a spot, that leaves 2 slots open for Bonser, Humber and Jones (assuming the Twins go with a 7-man bullpen). One of those guys, and the negative value he brings with him, will never throw a pitch for the Twins in 2008, and those innings will instead be taken by someone better.
As the spring training competition unfolds, PECOTA will update its projections, and I bet the Twins' expected win total will improve as things progress.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Creating Runs
In my last post, I compiled a bunch of stats that the Twins could, on average, be expected to amass in 2009. I guessed, based on individual players' career numbers, that the team would end up with 814 runs, 15 fewer than in 2008. But there are better ways of projecting how many runs a team should score based on their other stats, so I decided to take what I'd found and apply it to the various formulae for Runs Created.
In addition to what I'd put together already (AB, Avg/OBP/Slg, H, R, RBI, 2B, 3B, HR, SF, K, BB, HBP), I needed SB, CS, IBB, SH, and GIDP in order to plug all the numbers in. Here are those additional stats for my projected Twins lineup, again using career averages for the players aged 25-35 and 2008 numbers for the younger guys, adjusted for the projected number of AB:
Span: 34 SB, 13 CS, 6 IBB, 15 SH, 6 GIDP
Casilla: 11 SB, 3 CS, 0 IBB, 20 SH, 11 GIDP
Mauer: 8 SB, 2 CS, 13 IBB, 1 SH, 17 GIDP
Morneau: 1 SB, 2 CS, 12 IBB, 0 SH, 15 GIDP
Cuddyer: 7 SB, 3 CS, 4 IBB, 0 SH, 17 GIDP
Kubel: 3 SB, 1 CS, 2 IBB, 1 SH, 15 GIDP
Young: 14 SB, 5 CS, 7 IBB, 1 SH, 19 GIDP
Buscher/Harris: 2 SB, 2 CS, 0 IBB, 4 SH, 16 GIDP
Punto: 18 SB, 7 CS, 1 IBB, 7 SH, 9 GIDP
Redmond: 0 SB, 0 CS, 0 IBB, 0 SH, 5 GIDP
Tolbert: 15 SB, 2 CS, 0 IBB, 4 SH, 11 GIDP
Pridie: 8 SB, 2 CS, 1 IBB, 2 SH, 2 GIDP
Team Total: 121 SB, 42 CS, 56 IBB, 55 SH, 143 GIDP
2008 Twins: 102 SB, 42 CS, 48 IBB, 52 SH, 142 GIDP
Add those to the totals from the other categories:
Team Totals: 5598 AB, .285/.349/.426, 1595 H, 814 R, 768 RBI, 291 2B, 48 3B, 134 HR, 67 SF, 925 K, 555 BB, 35 HBP
2008 Twins: 5641 AB, .279/.340/.408, 1572 H, 829 R, 791 RBI, 298 2B, 49 3B, 111 HR, 72 SF, 979 K, 529 BB, 36 HBP
and I've got everything I need to calculate 4 different flavors of Runs Created.
RC: 826
RCSB: 840
RCTech: 840
RC2002: 850
I was surprised to find that, in every variation of the formula, my estimate of 814 runs proved to be conservative.
I'm not satisfied that I've given so many AB to Jason Pridie, or with the minor league numbers I had to use in his projection. Now that the Twins' have signed Luis Matos to a minor league deal, I think his MLB experience makes him a likelier bench OF for the Twins than Pridie. Better yet, he has MLB stats from which I can derive averages:
189 AB, .255/.312/.375, 48 H, 25 R, 16 RBI, 10 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 1 SF, 35 K, 13 BB, 3 HBP, 0 IBB, 8 SB, 3 CS, 3 SH, 4 GIDP
While Matos' MLB averages don't quite measure up to Pridie's minor league averages, they don't make a significant difference in the team projections. I'm sticking to my guess that the 2009 Twins, if healthy, should be able to surpass 800 runs scored, as they have done in 2 of the last 3 seasons.
In addition to what I'd put together already (AB, Avg/OBP/Slg, H, R, RBI, 2B, 3B, HR, SF, K, BB, HBP), I needed SB, CS, IBB, SH, and GIDP in order to plug all the numbers in. Here are those additional stats for my projected Twins lineup, again using career averages for the players aged 25-35 and 2008 numbers for the younger guys, adjusted for the projected number of AB:
Span: 34 SB, 13 CS, 6 IBB, 15 SH, 6 GIDP
Casilla: 11 SB, 3 CS, 0 IBB, 20 SH, 11 GIDP
Mauer: 8 SB, 2 CS, 13 IBB, 1 SH, 17 GIDP
Morneau: 1 SB, 2 CS, 12 IBB, 0 SH, 15 GIDP
Cuddyer: 7 SB, 3 CS, 4 IBB, 0 SH, 17 GIDP
Kubel: 3 SB, 1 CS, 2 IBB, 1 SH, 15 GIDP
Young: 14 SB, 5 CS, 7 IBB, 1 SH, 19 GIDP
Buscher/Harris: 2 SB, 2 CS, 0 IBB, 4 SH, 16 GIDP
Punto: 18 SB, 7 CS, 1 IBB, 7 SH, 9 GIDP
Redmond: 0 SB, 0 CS, 0 IBB, 0 SH, 5 GIDP
Tolbert: 15 SB, 2 CS, 0 IBB, 4 SH, 11 GIDP
Pridie: 8 SB, 2 CS, 1 IBB, 2 SH, 2 GIDP
Team Total: 121 SB, 42 CS, 56 IBB, 55 SH, 143 GIDP
2008 Twins: 102 SB, 42 CS, 48 IBB, 52 SH, 142 GIDP
Add those to the totals from the other categories:
Team Totals: 5598 AB, .285/.349/.426, 1595 H, 814 R, 768 RBI, 291 2B, 48 3B, 134 HR, 67 SF, 925 K, 555 BB, 35 HBP
2008 Twins: 5641 AB, .279/.340/.408, 1572 H, 829 R, 791 RBI, 298 2B, 49 3B, 111 HR, 72 SF, 979 K, 529 BB, 36 HBP
and I've got everything I need to calculate 4 different flavors of Runs Created.
RC: 826
RCSB: 840
RCTech: 840
RC2002: 850
I was surprised to find that, in every variation of the formula, my estimate of 814 runs proved to be conservative.
I'm not satisfied that I've given so many AB to Jason Pridie, or with the minor league numbers I had to use in his projection. Now that the Twins' have signed Luis Matos to a minor league deal, I think his MLB experience makes him a likelier bench OF for the Twins than Pridie. Better yet, he has MLB stats from which I can derive averages:
189 AB, .255/.312/.375, 48 H, 25 R, 16 RBI, 10 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 1 SF, 35 K, 13 BB, 3 HBP, 0 IBB, 8 SB, 3 CS, 3 SH, 4 GIDP
While Matos' MLB averages don't quite measure up to Pridie's minor league averages, they don't make a significant difference in the team projections. I'm sticking to my guess that the 2009 Twins, if healthy, should be able to surpass 800 runs scored, as they have done in 2 of the last 3 seasons.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Average is OK
In my previous post I included a rather clumsily laid out argument against the urgency for the Twins to acquire a "big, RH bat" this offseason. Basically, it was that all the regulars who performed really well last season were lefties - Denard Span, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel. That the righties didn't perform wasn't so much a reflection upon their abilities but rather that they just had a bad year last year, and they'll probably return to their career averages in 2009, which would be just fine.
In assessing how your team, on paper, ought to perform, looking at career averages is better than recent history - the larger the sample size, the better it will represent a player's actual ability. Of course, some players will get hurt, and their replacements will usually be a step down in production (although the Twins were able to fly in the face of that in 2006 and 2008), but you have to plan for the season as though everyone will be healthy and your best players will be on the field every day.
I compiled offensive numbers for the Twins' offensive players as I would use them next year. For everyone between the ages of 25 and 35 and with 3 or more years of MLB experience, I simply plugged in their career averages projected out over a full season of AB. I would expect the younger guys to improve in each of their first three years (like Scott Baker), though some regress (like Boof Bonser) and some more or less repeat themselves (like Delmon Young). Still, I feel improvement is common enough that it is fairly conservative to merely plug in their numbers from 2008 (again, projected over a full season for those who didn't start the year in the Majors). For those older than 35 (er, I guess that's just Mike Redmond), I also repeated last year's numbers, although a further decline from him as he turns 38 shouldn't be a surprise. The caveats:
1. Runs and RBI are tricky individual stats, since they depend on what's happening around the batter, and that cast is always changing over the course of a career. In order to make sure that they'd add up to something plausible, I checked the average number of R/RBI over the past 7 seasons. Typically, there are about 6% more R than RBI, owing to double plays, wild pitches and errors. I decided to multiply the total RBI by 1.06 and take the lesser of that run total or the sum of everyone's average runs. That led to me subtracting runs from several players' averages, mainly Matt Tolbert, Jason Pridie, Buscher/Harris and Denard Span.
2. Jason Kubel's 2006 numbers are a major outlier. Since there is a legitimate physical excuse for them (he wasn't fully recovered from his 2005 knee reconstruction), I decided to compile his career averages without his 2006 numbers.
3. I used some pretty detailed methods to project a combined line for the Brian Buscher/Brendan Harris platoon in my previous post - I simply plugged those numbers in here.
4. Since Jason Pridie doesn't really have any MLB experience yet, I just used his career minor league averages.
Here's what I got:
Denard Span: 650 AB, .294/.387/.432, 191 H, 126 R, 88 RBI, 30 2B, 13 3B, 11 HR, 4 SF, 112 K, 94 BB, 7 HBP
Alexi Casilla: 600 AB, .281/.333/.374, 169 H, 90 R, 78 RBI, 23 2B, 0 3B, 11 HR, 9 SF, 70 K, 48 BB, 3 HBP
Joe Mauer: 530 AB, .317/.399/.457, 168 H, 84 R, 78 RBI, 33 2B, 4 3B, 11 HR, 7 SF, 60 K, 75 BB, 2 HBP
Justin Morneau: 600 AB, .281/.348/.498, 169 H, 88 R, 117 RBI, 36 2B, 2 3B, 30 HR, 8 SF, 100 K, 61 BB, 4 HBP
Michael Cuddyer: 550 AB, .268/.344/.441, 147 H, 82 R, 78 RBI, 32 2B, 5 3B, 18 HR, 4 SF, 117 K, 59 BB, 7 HBP
Jason Kubel: 500 AB, .274/.336/.458, 137 H, 71 R, 80 RBI, 29 2B, 3 3B, 19 HR, 7 SF, 95 K, 50 BB, 1 HBP
Delmon Young: 575 AB, .290/.336/.405, 167 H, 80 R, 69 RBI, 28 2B, 4 3B, 10 HR, 5 SF, 105 K, 35 BB, 7 HBP
Buscher/Harris: 550 AB, .302/.363/.456, 166 H, 65 R, 98 RBI, 32 2B, 1 3B, 17 HR, 14 SF, 85 K, 53 BB, 1 HBP
Nick Punto: 475 AB, .252/.319/.332, 120 H, 62 R, 36 RBI, 20 2B, 5 3B, 3 HR, 4 SF, 88 K, 48 BB, 0 HBP
Mike Redmond: 129 AB, .287/.321/.333, 37 H, 14 R, 12 RBI, 6 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 1 SF, 11 K, 5 BB, 2 HBP
Matt Tolbert: 250 AB, .283/.322/.389, 71 H, 28 R, 13 RBI, 13 2B, 7 3B, 0 HR, 2 SF, 42 K, 15 BB, 0 HBP
Jason Pridie: 189 AB, .278/.323/.433, 53 H, 24 R, 21 RBI, 9 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR, 2 SF, 40 K, 12 BB, 1 HBP
Team Totals: 5598 AB, .285/.349/.426, 1595 H, 814 R, 768 RBI, 291 2B, 48 3B, 134 HR, 67 SF, 925 K, 555 BB, 35 HBP
2008 Twins: 5641 AB, .279/.340/.408, 1572 H, 829 R, 791 RBI, 298 2B, 49 3B, 111 HR, 72 SF, 979 K, 529 BB, 36 HBP
This bears out what I guessed shortly after the season ended this fall: while the 2009 Twins will undoubtedly have a lower BA with RISP and therefore score fewer runs, those losses will be mitigated by an increase in power by some players who had underperformed their career averages. Mauer and Morneau add 9 HR to the team total if they show their typical power. By replacing Carlos Gomez in the lineup will full seasons of Span and average Cuddyer, the Twins pick up a ton of walks and 13 HR while cutting about 30 K. Substituting Punto and Buscher/Harris for the AB given to Mike Lamb and Adam Everett also helps.
Fewer runs, but an increase in team BA, OBP, SLG%, HR and BB. The resulting .775 Team OPS would have been 5th in the AL last year after Texas, Boston, Detroit and the Chisox. That, combined with improved pitching and defense, should help the Twins maintain their run differential. The same rules apply for the pitching projections, with these caveats:
1. I'm only averaging bullpen members' numbers as relievers, so we'll use only Boof's half-season in the 'pen to project '09.
2. However, I'm including Guerrier's numbers from his 3 spot starts, since none of them lasted longer than 4 IP.
3. I'm using Jose Mijares' minor league averages.
4. And I'm using Philip Humber's minor league averages - including from his starts.
Scott Baker: 33 GS, 195 IP, 209 H, 92 ER, 25 HR, 145 K, 43 BB, 4.23 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Francisco Liriano: 33 GS, 190.2 IP, 157 H, 67 ER, 17 HR, 211K, 61 BB, 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Kevin Slowey: 33 GS, 196 IP, 197 H, 87 ER, 27 HR, 150 K, 29 BB, 3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Nick Blackburn: 33 GS, 193.1 IP, 224 H, 87 ER, 23 HR, 96 K, 39 BB, 4.05 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Glen Perkins: 30 GS, 174 IP, 211 H, 85 ER, 29 HR, 85 K, 45 BB, 4.41 ERA, 1.47 WHIP
Joe Nathan: 71.1 IP, 46 H, 16 ER, 4 HR, 85 K, 22 BB, 2.02 ERA, 0.95 WHIP
Jesse Crain: 69.2 IP, 63 H, 25 ER, 6 HR, 42 K, 23 BB, 3.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Matt Guerrier: 76.1 IP, 77 H, 31 ER, 10 HR, 52 K, 26 BB, 3.66 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Craig Breslow: 75.1 IP, 61 H, 19 ER, 2 HR, 65 K, 38 BB, 2.27 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Boof Bonser: 78 IP, 99 H, 51 ER, 12 HR, 83 K, 24 BB, 5.88 ERA, 1.58 WHIP
Jose Mijares: 70 IP, 54 H, 26 ER, 8 HR, 84 K, 40 BB, 3.39 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
Philip Humber: 65 IP, 62 H, 31 ER, 9 HR, 57 K, 20 BB, 4.29 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Team Total: 1454.2 IP, 1460 H, 617 ER, 172 HR, 1,155 K, 410 BB, 3.82 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
2008 Twins: 1459 IP, 1568 H, 675 ER, 183 HR, 995 K, 406 BB, 4.16 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
2008 Rays: 1457.2 IP, 1349 H, 618 ER, 167 HR, 1,143 K, 526 BB, 3.82 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
How about that! Our 2009 staff puts up numbers nearly identical to Tampa Bay's 2008 squad, which finished 2nd in the AL. With Liriano replacing Livan Hernandez' innings the Twins get a huge spike in K and drop in H and ER. Guerrier returning to form solves a lot of the bullpen's problems. Mijares replacing Brian Bass takes care of the rest (provided he matches his minor league efficiency). And even if he doesn't, I'd be amazed if most of the Twins' starters failed to exceed these projections (for example, if they stay healthy and make 33 starts, at least a couple of them should be able to surpass 200 IP). Increased innings from the starters will lower the toll on the relievers, making them more effective - and more likely to realize their career averages.
The final piece comes from a defensive performance that reverts to the average under the Gardenhire years, at least in terms of how the errors lead to unearned runs. The Twins allowed a ghastly 70 unearned runs in 2008, by far the most of this decade. The average number of unearned runs allowed by the Twins in the last 8 seasons is 54. Improved play by a less green OF should help make up most of that difference. Casilla has made just 2 errors in 38 games at second base in the Dominican Winter League - at that rate, he would make only 8 errors over a full MLB season. And Punto should be an upgrade over the way Everett played last year.
If those things came together to bring the unearned runs back to average, the Twins would allow 671 R in 2009. That would make their run differential +143. According to the Pythagorean Expectation, that would give the Twins a record of 96-66. I may get into 2nd and/or 3rd order wins later on this winter if I'm still this bored and starved for baseball, but you get the idea. If the team the Twins have already assembled can just stay healthy and do what they normally do, they should be strong division contenders to say the least.
In assessing how your team, on paper, ought to perform, looking at career averages is better than recent history - the larger the sample size, the better it will represent a player's actual ability. Of course, some players will get hurt, and their replacements will usually be a step down in production (although the Twins were able to fly in the face of that in 2006 and 2008), but you have to plan for the season as though everyone will be healthy and your best players will be on the field every day.
I compiled offensive numbers for the Twins' offensive players as I would use them next year. For everyone between the ages of 25 and 35 and with 3 or more years of MLB experience, I simply plugged in their career averages projected out over a full season of AB. I would expect the younger guys to improve in each of their first three years (like Scott Baker), though some regress (like Boof Bonser) and some more or less repeat themselves (like Delmon Young). Still, I feel improvement is common enough that it is fairly conservative to merely plug in their numbers from 2008 (again, projected over a full season for those who didn't start the year in the Majors). For those older than 35 (er, I guess that's just Mike Redmond), I also repeated last year's numbers, although a further decline from him as he turns 38 shouldn't be a surprise. The caveats:
1. Runs and RBI are tricky individual stats, since they depend on what's happening around the batter, and that cast is always changing over the course of a career. In order to make sure that they'd add up to something plausible, I checked the average number of R/RBI over the past 7 seasons. Typically, there are about 6% more R than RBI, owing to double plays, wild pitches and errors. I decided to multiply the total RBI by 1.06 and take the lesser of that run total or the sum of everyone's average runs. That led to me subtracting runs from several players' averages, mainly Matt Tolbert, Jason Pridie, Buscher/Harris and Denard Span.
2. Jason Kubel's 2006 numbers are a major outlier. Since there is a legitimate physical excuse for them (he wasn't fully recovered from his 2005 knee reconstruction), I decided to compile his career averages without his 2006 numbers.
3. I used some pretty detailed methods to project a combined line for the Brian Buscher/Brendan Harris platoon in my previous post - I simply plugged those numbers in here.
4. Since Jason Pridie doesn't really have any MLB experience yet, I just used his career minor league averages.
Here's what I got:
Denard Span: 650 AB, .294/.387/.432, 191 H, 126 R, 88 RBI, 30 2B, 13 3B, 11 HR, 4 SF, 112 K, 94 BB, 7 HBP
Alexi Casilla: 600 AB, .281/.333/.374, 169 H, 90 R, 78 RBI, 23 2B, 0 3B, 11 HR, 9 SF, 70 K, 48 BB, 3 HBP
Joe Mauer: 530 AB, .317/.399/.457, 168 H, 84 R, 78 RBI, 33 2B, 4 3B, 11 HR, 7 SF, 60 K, 75 BB, 2 HBP
Justin Morneau: 600 AB, .281/.348/.498, 169 H, 88 R, 117 RBI, 36 2B, 2 3B, 30 HR, 8 SF, 100 K, 61 BB, 4 HBP
Michael Cuddyer: 550 AB, .268/.344/.441, 147 H, 82 R, 78 RBI, 32 2B, 5 3B, 18 HR, 4 SF, 117 K, 59 BB, 7 HBP
Jason Kubel: 500 AB, .274/.336/.458, 137 H, 71 R, 80 RBI, 29 2B, 3 3B, 19 HR, 7 SF, 95 K, 50 BB, 1 HBP
Delmon Young: 575 AB, .290/.336/.405, 167 H, 80 R, 69 RBI, 28 2B, 4 3B, 10 HR, 5 SF, 105 K, 35 BB, 7 HBP
Buscher/Harris: 550 AB, .302/.363/.456, 166 H, 65 R, 98 RBI, 32 2B, 1 3B, 17 HR, 14 SF, 85 K, 53 BB, 1 HBP
Nick Punto: 475 AB, .252/.319/.332, 120 H, 62 R, 36 RBI, 20 2B, 5 3B, 3 HR, 4 SF, 88 K, 48 BB, 0 HBP
Mike Redmond: 129 AB, .287/.321/.333, 37 H, 14 R, 12 RBI, 6 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 1 SF, 11 K, 5 BB, 2 HBP
Matt Tolbert: 250 AB, .283/.322/.389, 71 H, 28 R, 13 RBI, 13 2B, 7 3B, 0 HR, 2 SF, 42 K, 15 BB, 0 HBP
Jason Pridie: 189 AB, .278/.323/.433, 53 H, 24 R, 21 RBI, 9 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR, 2 SF, 40 K, 12 BB, 1 HBP
Team Totals: 5598 AB, .285/.349/.426, 1595 H, 814 R, 768 RBI, 291 2B, 48 3B, 134 HR, 67 SF, 925 K, 555 BB, 35 HBP
2008 Twins: 5641 AB, .279/.340/.408, 1572 H, 829 R, 791 RBI, 298 2B, 49 3B, 111 HR, 72 SF, 979 K, 529 BB, 36 HBP
This bears out what I guessed shortly after the season ended this fall: while the 2009 Twins will undoubtedly have a lower BA with RISP and therefore score fewer runs, those losses will be mitigated by an increase in power by some players who had underperformed their career averages. Mauer and Morneau add 9 HR to the team total if they show their typical power. By replacing Carlos Gomez in the lineup will full seasons of Span and average Cuddyer, the Twins pick up a ton of walks and 13 HR while cutting about 30 K. Substituting Punto and Buscher/Harris for the AB given to Mike Lamb and Adam Everett also helps.
Fewer runs, but an increase in team BA, OBP, SLG%, HR and BB. The resulting .775 Team OPS would have been 5th in the AL last year after Texas, Boston, Detroit and the Chisox. That, combined with improved pitching and defense, should help the Twins maintain their run differential. The same rules apply for the pitching projections, with these caveats:
1. I'm only averaging bullpen members' numbers as relievers, so we'll use only Boof's half-season in the 'pen to project '09.
2. However, I'm including Guerrier's numbers from his 3 spot starts, since none of them lasted longer than 4 IP.
3. I'm using Jose Mijares' minor league averages.
4. And I'm using Philip Humber's minor league averages - including from his starts.
Scott Baker: 33 GS, 195 IP, 209 H, 92 ER, 25 HR, 145 K, 43 BB, 4.23 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Francisco Liriano: 33 GS, 190.2 IP, 157 H, 67 ER, 17 HR, 211K, 61 BB, 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Kevin Slowey: 33 GS, 196 IP, 197 H, 87 ER, 27 HR, 150 K, 29 BB, 3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Nick Blackburn: 33 GS, 193.1 IP, 224 H, 87 ER, 23 HR, 96 K, 39 BB, 4.05 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Glen Perkins: 30 GS, 174 IP, 211 H, 85 ER, 29 HR, 85 K, 45 BB, 4.41 ERA, 1.47 WHIP
Joe Nathan: 71.1 IP, 46 H, 16 ER, 4 HR, 85 K, 22 BB, 2.02 ERA, 0.95 WHIP
Jesse Crain: 69.2 IP, 63 H, 25 ER, 6 HR, 42 K, 23 BB, 3.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Matt Guerrier: 76.1 IP, 77 H, 31 ER, 10 HR, 52 K, 26 BB, 3.66 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Craig Breslow: 75.1 IP, 61 H, 19 ER, 2 HR, 65 K, 38 BB, 2.27 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Boof Bonser: 78 IP, 99 H, 51 ER, 12 HR, 83 K, 24 BB, 5.88 ERA, 1.58 WHIP
Jose Mijares: 70 IP, 54 H, 26 ER, 8 HR, 84 K, 40 BB, 3.39 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
Philip Humber: 65 IP, 62 H, 31 ER, 9 HR, 57 K, 20 BB, 4.29 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Team Total: 1454.2 IP, 1460 H, 617 ER, 172 HR, 1,155 K, 410 BB, 3.82 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
2008 Twins: 1459 IP, 1568 H, 675 ER, 183 HR, 995 K, 406 BB, 4.16 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
2008 Rays: 1457.2 IP, 1349 H, 618 ER, 167 HR, 1,143 K, 526 BB, 3.82 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
How about that! Our 2009 staff puts up numbers nearly identical to Tampa Bay's 2008 squad, which finished 2nd in the AL. With Liriano replacing Livan Hernandez' innings the Twins get a huge spike in K and drop in H and ER. Guerrier returning to form solves a lot of the bullpen's problems. Mijares replacing Brian Bass takes care of the rest (provided he matches his minor league efficiency). And even if he doesn't, I'd be amazed if most of the Twins' starters failed to exceed these projections (for example, if they stay healthy and make 33 starts, at least a couple of them should be able to surpass 200 IP). Increased innings from the starters will lower the toll on the relievers, making them more effective - and more likely to realize their career averages.
The final piece comes from a defensive performance that reverts to the average under the Gardenhire years, at least in terms of how the errors lead to unearned runs. The Twins allowed a ghastly 70 unearned runs in 2008, by far the most of this decade. The average number of unearned runs allowed by the Twins in the last 8 seasons is 54. Improved play by a less green OF should help make up most of that difference. Casilla has made just 2 errors in 38 games at second base in the Dominican Winter League - at that rate, he would make only 8 errors over a full MLB season. And Punto should be an upgrade over the way Everett played last year.
If those things came together to bring the unearned runs back to average, the Twins would allow 671 R in 2009. That would make their run differential +143. According to the Pythagorean Expectation, that would give the Twins a record of 96-66. I may get into 2nd and/or 3rd order wins later on this winter if I'm still this bored and starved for baseball, but you get the idea. If the team the Twins have already assembled can just stay healthy and do what they normally do, they should be strong division contenders to say the least.
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