Contract Week

A quiet offseason has suddenly become busy with Twins news. Part of that was prompted by Tuesday's arbitration deadline, without which they might well have continued to progress through the winter at their own leisurely pace. Finally spurred into action, they handed out a flurry of contracts. I was struck by the disparity in efficiency between some of those recent transactions. Here's what I mean:

Arbitration

Twins reached 1-year agreements with Alexi Casilla ($865K), Glen Perkins ($700K) and Matt Capps ($7.15M), avoiding arbitration. Jason Repko ($600K) and Pat Neshek ($625K) agreed to 1-year deals in December.

Casilla will presumably be the everyday SS and #9 hitter. I'll go into it more in a later post, but I think it's reasonable to expect him to provide league average production at that position. That's pretty good return for a salary that's only about double the minimum wage. Repko is useful only as a late-inning sub for someone who's already gotten on base; his salary is appropriate for his limited skills. Neshek was one of the top setup men in baseball before his injury. If he can regain his command and a little velocity, as Francisco Liriano was able to do, he could be a huge asset for the bullpen. If he can't, the Twins haven't wagered too much.

Those three guys aren't sure things to be productive, but Repko serves an important function on the bench, and the other two have pretty decent upside potential. For just over $2M, the Twins could get some nice value out of that trio.

But just about every year, they offer arbitration to someone I would have non-tendered. This year, it's Perkins. There is nothing I've seen in his last two seasons to suggest that he has any chance of contributing to this year's team. He's more hittable than Nick Blackburn, and doesn't even pitch as deeply into games as Kevin Slowey, so he's not going to beat anybody out for a rotation spot. He doesn't miss bats, he doesn't get ground balls, and he's no good at getting lefties out, so what good could he do in the bullpen? On top of that, he's injury-prone, there are questions about his make-up, and Gardy doesn't seem to like him very much. So why even offer him a contract? $700K isn't a ton of money to spend on a player, but it's a lot to spend on toilet paper.

As for Capps, I accepted a long time ago that he was going to get a contract and make about $7M through arbitration. Those facts have been incorporated into my expectations of the Twins' offseason all along. But after seeing reliever after reliever agree to 2 and 3-year deals with average annual values of $3.5-$5.5M, it was still a bit of a shock to look at the actual number today. My first thought was, "Wow, that's really steep." Then I went back to the projected payroll spreadsheet and reminded myself that it wasn't shocking - it's what everyone assumed would happen all along.

Most relievers have been overpriced this winter, especially when you factor in the additional years. Capps will cost the Twins less in guaranteed money than every departed member of their bullpen, with the exception of Jon Rauch, who had to settle for a 1-year deal. In that respect, the Twins came out ahead. And they have their 2nd closer, a guy who can step in if Joe Nathan struggles in his comeback from TJS.

But it's disheartening to see that, for about the same amount of money they're paying Capps and Perkins, they could have brought back Brian Fuentes - who also would have served as Nathan insurance - plus somebody else who has a better shot of producing than Perkins. Like Takashi Saito, or maybe Chad Qualls. It seems like a waste to see only one spot in an uncertain bullpen filled with the money that might have covered two.

Exchanged figures (Team/Player) with Kevin Slowey ($2.3M/$3.1M), Francisco Liriano ($3.6M/$5M) and Delmon Young ($4.65/$6.25).

With Slowey, the Twins should just go ahead and split the difference at $2.7M. After a couple of shaky seasons in a row, including a very frustrating 2010, I don't know why Slowey wouldn't accept that.

Liriano and Young should get multi-year deals with the Twins' submitted numbers as the 2011 salaries. For Liriano, Zach Greinke and Josh Johnson are the appropriate comps, each of whom signed 4-year deals following the first good season they produced after their respective troubles. Liriano's crappy luck last year is good luck for the Twins, since his 2010 doesn't look quite as nice statistically as Johnson's 2009 or Greinke's 2008. They might be able to get him for a little less than the $38-$39M those guys got, maybe more like $36-$37M. They each made $3.75M in the first year. Maybe Liriano's contract goes:

2011: $3.6M

2012: $7.4M

2013: $13M

2014: $13M

That would be the $37M version.

As for Young, I think Michael Cuddyer is a good comp. In the winter of 2008, Cuddyer filed at $6.2M and the Twins at $4.7M - just about exactly the split between Young and the Twins now. Cuddy wound up with a 3-year, $24M contract with an option for 2011. I don't know if I'd mess with the $2.75M signing bonus in Young's case, instead dividing it over the later years of the deal:

2011: $4.75M

2012: $7.75M

2013: $10.5M

2014: $12.5M or $1M buyout

Just make sure that, in Young's case, they don't have to exercise the option a year early.

Of course, the Twins could just wait and see whether Lirano's and Young's breakout 2010s were just flukes. But my guess is that the next few years with them won't come at as low a price in the future. I'll bet at least one of them has a new contract announced before Twinsfest.

Free Agents

Twins agreed to terms with Jim Thome on a 1-year, $3M contract and Carl Pavano on a 2-year, $16.5M contract.

While I have my reservations about bringing Jim Thome back, I have to give the Twins credit for getting him for so little guaranteed money, especially after the monster season he just had. If he totally flames out this year, the Twins won't have lost much.

The Pavano contract is amazing. As soon as Ted Lilly re-upped with the Dodgers for 3-years, $33M, I thought Pavano was gone for sure. Why shouldn't he get the same deal? Well, it was probably partly the recent, notorious injury history. That, coupled with Type A status that would have cost the signing team a draft pick, seems to have deflated Pavano's market. So the Twins were not only able to bring him back, but at a price tag just a little bit over what they paid him last season. That's the same thing Jake Westbrook is getting paid. What a bargain!

This move might free up one of the other starters for a possible trade. Other than Duensing, though, I feel like their stock is pretty low right now. It would be best to wait until at least the end of spring training, when Slowey and Blackburn can establish that they're healthy and able to get people out.

Or if they hold onto everybody, signing Pavano likely means that Duensing would get kicked back to the bullpen, where he's been very effective over the last two seasons. That would reduce the number of question marks in the 'pen by one. There are probably enough guys coming to spring training to adequately fill the remaining relief spots internally.

With Pavano coming back to the Twins, they lost their opportunity to get some draft pick compensation for him. (It's a stipulation of his new contract that the Twins won't offer him arbitration after 2012.) They'll end up with something like 3 of the top 50-60 picks this June. Which is nice, but it could have been so much more.

The Rays were in basically the same boat as the Twins, with the bulk of their bullpen heading into free agency. But they boldly offered arbitration to everybody, even though having several of those players accept it would have been much more difficult for them to absorb financially. All of their FAs turned it down, and the Rays have been rewarded with 11 picks out of the first 80 or so. If the Twins had done the same, they might have picked up 4 extra picks for losing Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes. I'm not sure Guerrier, as a Type A, would have turned down arbitration. But then again, Type A Grant Balfour did, and he landed on his feet. Rauch and Fuentes almost certainly would have tested the market. The Twins didn't really lose anything by being cautious, but they might have gained something had they had the same resolution the Rays did.

A few bargains, a few missed opportunities, and a few head-scratchers. It doesn't seem like many avid fans are too excited with the offseason so far. But I have no doubt that the Twins are following the plan they set for themselves at their organizational meetings. We may not be completely satisfied with the deals they've made, but I have a feeling they are.

Hit Your Spots

Twins 2, White Sox 5

Kevin Slowey is in the big leagues not because he has overpowering stuff, but rather because he has elite command of his pitches. His ability to locate his pitches is as exceptional, in its way, as Francisco Liriano's filthy slider - very few pitchers can match it. So it drives me bonkers when Slowey loses a game because he fails to hit his spots.

His problem through the first few starts of 2010 has been inefficiency: too many pitches in each AB are preventing him from getting through 6 IP. That was not the case on Tuesday, as he flew through the first 4 innings with under 40 pitches. He faced one batter over the minimum and appeared to be on track to go deep into the game. He became much more deliberate in the 5th, but that was appropriate for the situation he was in. Alex Rios led off with the a single, stole 2nd and moved to 3rd on a missed catch error by Orlando Hudson. With a runner on 3rd and nobody out, a pitcher is wise to approach things differently than when the bases are empty. And the results were excellent, as Slowey struck out righty Carlos Quentin, walked lefty Mark Teahen (who had touched him for a 2B earlier), then struck out righty Gordon Beckham.

He was one good pitch to the #9 hitter away from escaping the jam. Alexi Ramirez wouldn't chase anything out of the zone early in the count, and Slowey found himself behind 3-1. Walking Ramirez to load the bases for the light-hitting Juan Pierre, who came into the game with an OBP under .300 and 0 XBH, would hardly be a disaster. (Sometimes I wonder whether Slowey understands that, with RISP, it can be better to put a guy on 1st than to let him hit his way to 2nd.) The next pitch caught the heart of the plate, and Ramirez drilled it into the gap for a 2-RBI 2B. Pierre legged out an IF hit, then Slowey grooved one to AJ Pierzynski for another 2-RBI 2B. Then, with Andruw Jones batting, what was for me the worst pitch of the game: an 0-2 fastball smacked into right center to bring home Pierzynski. What is that pitch doing in the strike zone? Jones has struck out in over 25% of his AB this season - get him to chase something. I don't approve of the cookie to Ramirez, but I can understand it when the count is 3-1. On 0-2, the pitcher has to throw his pitch, but Jones couldn't have asked for better.

Three of the 6 straight H with 2 out in that inning were IF singles, including one from Paul Konerko. He's slower than some catchers, but Brendan Harris, playing short in place of JJ Hardy, was lucky to knock the ball down. With Hardy's superior range, I have no doubt that the inning would have ended there, and maybe Slowey could have stayed in to start the 6th. As it was, he was knocked out after 4.2 IP, and really has only himself to blame.

The game was lost in that inning, and not just because the Sox put up a 5-spot. Nick Punto and Denard Span had 1-out singles to start a rally in the bottom half. The lowest OBP of the next 3 batters was Hudson's .380, yet both he and Joe Mauer struck out swinging to end the threat. I'm not sure Freddy Garcia threw 2 pitches in the strike zone in those 2 AB combined. Hudson and Mauer flailed away at pitches well out of the zone. Just as annoying as a control pitcher missing his spots is when hitters with good plate discipline expand the strike zone. Those 2 got themselves out. Had one of them been more patient, maybe Justin Morneau's HR leading off the 6th could have come with some men on base.

Twins 3, White Sox 2

Now this is how it's done. Carl Pavano adjusted quickly after a rocky 1st trip through the lineup, allowing only 2 baserunners out of the next 18 hitters. 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB and 4 K on 96 pitches. He threw strike one to 20 of the 27 batters he faced. And they were quality strikes. The difference between a pitch on the corner and one 4 inches closer to the center of the plate is the difference between a lazy fly ball and a ringing double. I hope Slowey is learning something from watching Pavano go about his business. The veteran is averaging 6.2 IP/GS so far in 2010.

The baseball gods gaveth and tooketh away from the Twins' offense. The tying and winning runs score on 6-hoppers through the IF from Morneau and Span. But Michael Cuddyer's booming drive to left-center was pulled back onto the field by Alex Rios with a leap at the bullpen fence. The ball sounded good when he hit it, but I immediately found myself trying to help blow the ball over the wall. It's only been 18 rather cold games, but CF is looking like somewhere you don't want to hit the ball at Target Field.

Next, 3 at Yankee Stadium, and 2 each at Rogers Center and Fenway Park. I think the Twins might have won 1 game between those three locations in 2009. This next stretch is where they have to prove that they're for real this year. The Tigers just held the Yanks to 12 R over 4 games, and half of those came in the 9th of the one game the Tigers lost. The Yankee hitters better keep scuffling against Baker and Liriano this weekend.

Notes:

• Hardy was put on the DL retroactive to last Wednesday, so he'll be eligible to play in the final game of the road trip next Thursday. Meanwhile, the Twins chose to recall utility IF Matt Tolbert, though they already have 3 utility IF on the roster in Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla and Harris. This at the expense of Luke Hughes, Danny Valencia - who still doesn't have any HR but has been warming at the plate - and Trevor Plouffe, perhaps the most obvious replacement for Hardy. Plouffe is, after all, the everyday SS for the Red Wings, he has a reputation as a good defender, and he's been hitting very well since the middle of last summer. Plus, he was a 1st-round pick in 2004, and has been at AAA for the equivalent of almost 2 full seasons. You'd think they'd want to give him a little taste of the big leagues here. But no.
• The Twins decided to add an extra reliever for the East Coast swing. They sent Wilson Ramos down to get regular playing time. They chose to call up not Rob Delaney or Kyle Waldrop or Anthony Slama, who have been kicking ass down there, or even Jeff Manship, but rather Jose Mijares, who has made 2 appearances on his rehab assignment and been rocked in each. He looks no kind of ready to face the ultra-patient hitters of the AL East powerhouses. But here he comes.
• There were a flurry of moves made after I posted on Monday. 2/5 of the awful Rochester rotation has been replaced by Cole DeVries and Deolis Guerra. That opened the door for Kyle Gibson to move up to AA. Liam Hendriks moved up to A+, and threw a gem in his first game on Wednesday.

Pavano Back for More

The Twins offered arbitration to Type B free agent Carl Pavano in order to get a compensation pick in next year's draft when Pavano signed a multi-year deal with another team. Nothing controversial about that move. But, surprise! Pavano wasn't finding a better offer anywhere else, so he's decided to accept arbitration, ensuring that he will be a member of the Twins' rotation in 2010.

Pavano was not a part of my plans for next season, mainly because I see him as an older clone of Kevin Slowey. They're both RH with decent stuff that plays up because of their superlative command. They're going to strike out about 7 guys per 9 IP and give up rather a lot of HR. When healthy, each should be able to keep the team in the game most of the time. In a good rotation, they're the #3 starter.

So, the Twins now have 2 #3 starters. If they had a legitimate #1 & #2, that would be cool - I like a rotation where the #4 is good enough to be a #3 and the #5 is really a #4 (Nick Blackburn). But that's not the situation here. Scott Baker can be an ace - we saw it in the 2nd half of 2008 especially - but he wasn't consistent enough in 2009 to hold that role for me last year. He gave up too many big innings, and he frequently failed to make it deep into games even when he was pitching effectively. He's definitely a #2, but he's a bit stretched as a #1 right now.

But that's the slot he's going to have to step into next season, because the Twins don't have anybody else on the roster who's even close to filling it right now. And with Pavano now certain to make $7M-ish next season, and a rather large raise likely coming Joe Mauer's way, I don't think the Twins will be able to afford anybody else with ace stuff. Even the high-upside/high-risk guys like Rich Harden, Erik Bedard and Ben Sheets will likely be too rich for a payroll that is quickly approaching the $90M mark.

That means the Twins will probably have to stretch either Slowey or Pavano into the #2 slot, and that their #5 starter will be a true #5. It's just not as sexy a rotation under those circumstances. The one thing that could save it is a rebound season from Francisco Liriano. The performance he gave between Rochester and the Twins in the summer of 2008 was easily worthy of a #2 starter. If he can regain command of his fastball, he still gets enough swings and misses to be a force at the front end of the rotation. But that's a big "if." He should certainly get every opportunity to win the final slot this spring, but it's nothing we can plan on.

Another effect of the Pavano development is that it makes Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak even more expendable - er, tradable. The Red Wings' rotation will be littered with back-end starters, many of whom will never get to have a significant impact with the Twins. Let's put together a package of some of the higher-value members of that group and see if we can't turn them into something we're lacking...

Other observations:

Dodgers 2B Orlando Hudson was not offered arbitration, and so his Type A status will not be a hindrance to the team that signs him. Placido Polanco's 3-year, $18M deal with the Phillies sets the market for players of this type. Hudson is a high-OBP switch-hitter who plays above-average defense at the keystone. This is precisely the sort of guy the Twins should be looking for to upgrade their IF. I'd offer him Polanco's deal immediately. Then Punto can keep 3B warm until Danny Valencia is ready, or they can still sign Crede and send Punto back to super-utility land. Get Hudson and call it an offseason.

As the Blue Jays shop Roy Halladay, their primary needs are for high-ceiling up-the-middle guys, particularly a CF and C. If the Twins could be sure Joe Mauer would sign an extension, they could start to build a package around CF Ben Revere, C Wilson Ramos and SP Anthony Swarzak that would have to look pretty good to the Blue Jays. After all, Toronto doesn't want to end up settling for mediocre quantity like the Twins had to do with Johan Santana. I don't think that the Twins could afford to take on Halladay's contract now that Pavano has signed. I just noticed that we've got what they need...

It's Not Our Year

For the second time this season, the Twins come staggering home from a losing road trip despite having outscored their opponents (38-29). That leaves them three games under .500, even though their run differential (+9) suggests a team that should be three games over .500 and right on Detroit's butt. That the team with the best scoring differential doesn't always have the best record is one of the things that makes sports so compelling. It's not enough to be good - you have to be good and execute when you need it.

The Twins aren't executing when they need it. Some of that's luck: Mike Redmond's soft liner with 2 RISP on Thursday afternoon would have scored both runners had the Indians been playing the IF in. The slow grounder to 2nd he hit in his next AB would have driven in a run from 3rd had the IF been back. Thursday could have been a happy day if Eric Wedge had made different decisions. But mostly, the Twins have only themselves to blame. Any kind of hit or productive out in any number of situations would have won the rubber game in Cleveland. Any kind of decent starts from Anthony Swarzak and Scott Baker in Detroit would have led to a Twins' sweep. But the Twins aren't getting what they need. Not this year.

Yes, I'm starting to feel fatalistic about the season, and I wouldn't be surprised if the players are, too. That's why it's so important for Bill Smith to keep infusing fresh blood into the team, so that they can have some reason to believe that things are different now, tomorrow will be better. Each of the Twins' recent additions, though not necessarily impact players on paper, have given the team the strongest production anyone could hope for so far. Since joining the team on August 1st, Orlando Cabrera is hitting .361/.378/.611. That's fit right into an offense that's averaging 6.0 R/game in August, and that's including a couple of RISP clunkers in Cleveland. Carl Pavano stepped into the rotation and delivered 7 shutout innings, meaning that the Twins have allowed 53 R in the 7 games this month he didn't start.

Pavano, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing and Jesse Crain are the only pitchers to have avoided disaster so far in August, although most of them had their troubles in July. With an offense that's rolling, the Twins just need league average pitching to stay in the race. The players already on the roster must be able to improve upon their recent performances. But Bill Smith should keep his eyes glued to the waiver wire in hopes of picking up other players, especially pitchers, who might be able to give the Twins some stability in the 'pen or the rotation. And he should also be willing to take some chances on some of the guys at Rochester, perhaps even before rosters expand.

The only decent starter they haven't tried yet is Jeff Manship, who's currently sporting a 3.22 ERA in 50.1 IP. He's only allowed 3 HR in 126 IP between New Britain and Rochester, so at least he knows how to keep it in the yard. The IF has plenty to offer, as Steven Tolleson (.301/.372/.435) would likely be an upgrade at 2B over Casilla/Punto, Jose Morales (.321/.417/.409) could definitely outperform Mike Redmond, and Danny Valencia (.292/.315/.474) might already be a better hitter than Brendan Harris or Joe Crede (though in his case I would definitely wait until September to bring him up).

But the minor leaguers could really change the complexion of the bullpen. Rob Delaney, after a brutal introduction to AAA, has a 1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 since the beginning of July. Juan Morillo has an ugly 6.0 BB/9, but has 12 K/9, a .210 BAA, and has allowed only 1 HR in 51 IP at Rochester. And there's Anthony Slama, who has an unseemly 4.5 BB/9, but has 12.9 K/9, a .201 BAA and has allowed 5 HR in 65.1 IP. Maybe he'd get lit up if he skipped a level, but maybe he'd give the Twins a stretch run like they got out of Jose Mijares last year. Either way, I don't think the Twins have a lot to lose. As the team is now, even with the additions they've made so far, I can't help wondering at the beginning of every game what they're going to do to blow it this time.