Taking Shape

The front office has made a series of decisions over the last few days that have brought the Twins' opening day roster into greater focus:

Rotation

They announced that Scott Baker will be the 5th starter, joining Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing. Kevin Slowey will begin the season in the bullpen in a RH version of Duensing's role to begin last season. This is how it should be for the first couple months. Baker has more starter upside than Slowey. Slowey has more upside than Blackburn, but Nick has been a very effective back-end pitcher in 2 of 3 Major League seasons. At the very least, he's shown himself to be durable, which Slowey has not, so using a 'pen assignment to limit Slowey's mileage isn't a bad strategy.

While trade rumors involving Slowey will persist, the Twins would be wise to hold him until they're confident that Kyle Gibson is MLB-ready. In 2008, the rotation they broke camp with didn't hold together for a week. In 2009, they needed about a dozen different starters to get through the season. If they're patient, Slowey will get opportunities to start, and see whether the uptempo approach he began using late last season will translate into greater effectiveness and value in a starting role.

Bullpen

Slowey joins Joe Nathan, Matt Capps and Jose Mijares as locks to make the bullpen. The Twins elected to place Pat Neshek on waivers, from which he was claimed by San Diego. Though he was inexpensive and had an option remaining, they obviously felt that his stuff wasn't progressing enough in the 2nd season following his TJS to make him an effective option, even in their very unsettled bullpen. There was always some question as to whether or not the Twins would want to have Neshek and Anthony Slama in the same bullpen, since they bring similar skills to the table. If Neshek has anything left, he couldn't find a more hospitable environment in which to find it than the best pitcher's park in the weaker league. Good luck to him.

A slew of other cuts brings the candidates for the 3 remaining bullpen spots down to these 5 guys: LHPs Dusty Hughes, Glen Perkins and Scott Diamond and RHPs Jim Hoey and Jeff Manship. By all accounts, Hughes will make the team - the FO loves him and he's pitched effectively this spring. Perkins probably makes it, too - he's out of options and would have to suck pretty hard not to get a chance to stick around, and he's actually been rather good in Grapefruit League games. That's already 3 lefties, so Rule 5 pick Diamond probably misses out. I'm sure the Twins will try to swing a trade with Atlanta in order to keep him in the organization.

Between Hoey and Manship, I think Hoey gets the nod. He struggled early, but has looked solid in his last few appearances. His high-velocity fastball is a unique asset among the Twins' potential middle relievers. Manship is just another strike-thrower with fringy stuff. Like Slowey, but not as good. Slama is also technically still in camp, but his balky shoulder has taken him out of serious consideration. The Twins will probably start him on the DL, delaying any decisions about whether or not to use one of his options until the end of his rehab assignment.

Bench

Luke Hughes and Matt Tolbert are still battling it out for the final bench spot. Hughes picked a most inopportune time to go into an 0 for 16 slump, though he finally broke out of it this afternoon with yet another HR, his team-leading 6th. I hope the decision-makers will look at the power potential and see the strategic value it holds as a way to keep Jason Kubel and Jim Thome from having to face too many lefties. I would expect that decision to come by the end of the weekend.

Notes:

• Good thing Nathan isn't going to have to face the Phillies this season!
• Kubel has officially entered "Save something for the regular season already!" territory.
• In 25 years of following baseball, I have never seen such a fascist line as Liriano's from last night: 3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, HR, 3 BB, 9 K, 76 pitches. Though he wasn't terribly efficient in the first 2 innings, the only baserunners he allowed were on singles and a full count walk. But he was keeping his pitches down and locating pretty well. I think the loooong bottom of the 2nd threw him off. He came out for the 3rd and suddenly was up in the zone and wild. A good one to get out of the way in spring training.
• Forbes came out with its annual valuations of the MLB franchises this week. The opening of Target Field sent the Twins rocketing up 21% to #12 overall at $490M. While putting a consistent winner on the field, the franchise has experienced year-over-year growth in revenue and value in each of the last 10 years. I bet the Pohlads are glad contraction never went down!

Spring Break

This being the Twins' only off-day during their Florida schedule, and about halfway through that schedule, and the day after the first round of cuts, it's a good time to weigh on the events of spring training so far.

The biggest thing for me has been the absence of the heart of the Twins' lineup. Thanks to an assortment of nagging/lingering injuries, Joe Mauer (receiving injections of synthetic lubricant after offseason knee surgery), Justin Morneau (the concussion), Delmon Young (sore toe) and Michael Cuddyer (foot wart removal) have combined for 15 PA in official spring games. That was making me very nervous this time last week. But then Morneau and Young showed up in a B game last Wednesday, and have since appeared in Grapefruit League play regularly. Mauer has finally begun catching bullpens and could DH in tomorrow's game. And Cuddyer's foot is healing - he's already ramping up his activities and could get into action by the end of the weekend.

That should make the last 2 weeks of spring training games extra fun as the Twins' regulars scramble to get enough PAs to get their timing down and prove they're in game shape. I imagine them staying in games a little longer than they might have, and playing more on back-to-back days. It's also comforting to know that everyone is expected to be ready by April 1, so we won't have to have Jason Repko or Matt Tolbert in the Opening Day lineup.

Speaking of Tolbert, there is reason to hope he won't make the team. Luke Hughes has been one of the Twins' best hitters so far, batting .361/.385/.778 with 3 2B, 4 HR and 1/1 SB through 13 games and about 40 PA. He's a right-handed stick, and he's showing himself to be capable of spotting at the corner OF positions and all over the IF (though, with his limited range, I can't imagine him ever playing SS when Gardy could just slide Nishioka over). Tolbert, for his part, has hit .240/.286/.240 with 0/2 SB. He's a much better IF glove than Hughes, and probably a faster baserunner. But he's never going to have the bat that Hughes does.

Which of them should be the 25th man on the roster depends on which of these situations everyone thinks is more important:

1. Jim Thome, pinch-hitting for Alexi Casilla, draws a late-inning BB. We need a PR who can score from 1B on a double, then go in and play the IF.
2. Jason Kubel comes to the plate with RISP late in the game. The opposing manager can go to the bullpen for their LOOGY. We need a PH who can hit LHP enough to make that pitching change less of a slam-dunk move.

I'm solidly in the camp of #2. If you're really intent on having a PR score all the way from 1st, you can put in Repko and have Cuddyer play 2B the following inning while Repko goes to RF. Or you can just let Hughes run for Thome - he's definitely an upgrade speedwise. There's simply no potential for Repko, Tolbert or Drew Butera to be of any use covering for Kubel at the plate. Hughes could do that, and also be a formidable PH for Casilla or another light hitter if there's a southpaw on the mound late in the game - or if the Twins just want to try to win the game with one swing. Keep hitting Luke Hughes - I want you on the team!

I expected there to be some sort of competition for the back end of the rotation, but Gardy quickly anointed Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing as starters, leaving Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker to compete for the final spot. As much as I like what Slowey can do, I have to pull for Baker. After all, when Slowey's got everything working, he's a solid #3 starter. When Baker puts it all together, he's a poor man's #1, or at least anybody's #2. Carl Pavano (though showing this spring that he knows what he's doing out there) is a really good #3 for me, and everybody else tops out at #4. With Baker in the rotation and pitching to his potential, I think the Twins have a rotation that can match up with just about any team in the AL. With Baker in the 'pen, they're a little soft at the front end.

I'm a little disappointed the Twins didn't keep their options open with Brian Duensing, who has a track record of pitching well out of the 'pen, and has very strong numbers vs. LH batters. However, I can't really argue that his 2nd half stints in the rotation in 2009 and 2010 haven't earned him the opportunity to have a full season as a starter. I think he'll do just fine there.

If Slowey does lose out, he'll either become the long man in the bullpen, or he may be traded. I'd be loathe to give him up too quickly, though. Pitching depth can disappear pretty quickly (as the Dodgers recently found out), and until Kyle Gibson gets enough innings at AAA to prove he's ready for the Show, I think it would behoove the Twins to hoard as many quality pitchers as they can. Slowey has options left, so why not send him to Rochester? Keep him stretched out, impressing opposing scouts, building trade value and ready to step into the Twins' rotation at a moment's notice. That move would have the added benefit of avoiding spot starts from the likes of Jeff Manship or Anthony Swarzak. If everyone pitches well, when midsummer rolls around, Slowey can be a piece of the blockbuster that lands 2011's Roy Oswalt or Dan Haren.

The bullpen seems to be coming together OK. Joe Nathan has had 4 clean outings and one in which he got thumped (though his OF defense didn't do him any favors there). I don't see any reason why he wouldn't be on target to resume his role as Closer. Matt Capps has been terrific in his limited appearances so far. Jose Mijares has been his typical self: hardly dominant, yet putting up solid numbers overall. Pat Neshek and Dusty Hughes look to be on track to earn spots. Assuming one position goes to the 6th starter, that leaves one spot left in the bullpen. Rule 5 pick Scott Diamond has allowed just 1 run in 6 IP, but he's got a lousy 2/6 K/BB ratio. Anthony Slama's sore elbow likely takes him out of the running. Alex Burnett hasn't been too impressive, and James Hoey has been erratic and hittable. Carlos Gutierrez and Kyle Waldrop have faired pretty well so far, and remain on the big league side of camp. Maybe one of them can make it as Burnett did last year.

As for the cuts, I don't think there were any surprises. Everybody who went down in the first wave was either signed to provide minor league depth or a prospect who would clearly benefit from some more seasoning. I was disappointed to see Chris Parmelee and Joe Benson head back to New Britain, though. I understand that the Twins like to take it slow with their prospects, and that neither of those guys has a full season at AA on their resume yet. However, I think they both played well enough in the Eastern League in the 2nd half (after their brief demotions to Fort Myers) that, with their experience in the Arizona Fall League thrown in, they could have been set straight up at Rochester.

They have the potential to fill the roles of Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer in 2012, though that would certainly require them to have pretty awesome seasons in 2011. The savings would be considerable, as Kubel and Cuddyer together make nearly $16M this year. The idea of replacing those two with a couple of serfs (who run better and play better defense) has a lot of appeal for me. Starting Benson and Parmelee at AA makes that dream that much further from reality, though. Sigh.

I guess the other thing that's been interesting to observe so far is the play of Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Nobody was sure of what to expect from him stateside. He was quickly named the everyday 2B, and has hardly looked overmatched in his spring appearances. He's started out .318/.348/.455 with a 1/1 K/BB ratio and 2/2 SB, and he's already made a bunch of sparkling defensive plays. I continue not to worry about him.

That's it until the next round of roster decisions...

Spring Wrap-up

Spring training is over at last. Carl Pavano and Kevin Slowey each pitched into the 7th inning this weekend. Joe Mauer caught a day game after a night game. Real baseball begins tomorrow. Some closing thoughts about the exhibition season:

• Yesterday's win gave the Twins a record of 16-14. Spring training records don't mean any more than spring training stats. And yet, you feel better about players who put up good numbers in the spring, and you feel better about a team that can come out of the Grapefruit League with a winning record. A lot of exhibition games tend to be decided by minor leaguers, but in the case of this season, they caused more losses than wins. The Twins' regular lineup put up a lot of crooked numbers early in games, and the rotation generally pitched great. It was the Anthony Swarzaks and Jeff Manships and Glen Perkins that were on the mound when things got away from the Twins late. And consider the strength of schedule: 7 games vs. Boston, 5 vs. Tampa, 4 vs. St. Louis and 2 each against the Yankees and Phillies. 2/3 of the games were against playoff caliber teams, and the Twins held their own.
• Most of the guys on the 25-man roster had a productive spring and look ready for the season. Of the hitters, only Justin Morneau and Alexi Casilla had trouble getting it going. Morneau will be fine. Casilla will be used infrequently. Pavano, Scott Baker and Pat Neshek were all excellent except for one poor outing. I'm a big proponent of concentrating all of one's sucking into as few games as possible, so those guys are fine.
• I want to call special attention to Delmon Young, who hit .310/.349/.466 over 63 PA. I'm sure we'd all take those rates over his full season. Even better, he had 50% more fly ball outs than grounders, and a 2/1 K/BB ratio. Even better than that, he struck out just 8 times, 12.7% of his plate appearances, an enormous improvement over his 20% career average or last year's 23.3%. Sure, he had only 4 BB in 63 PA. Then again, he had 4 BB in 63 PA! Remember, he had just 12 BB in 416 PA last season. A 6.3% BB rate would also be a new career high. He's got to keep it up, but the signs of progress are there.
• I thought Jacque Jones was washed up, but now I kinda want to see him show up for some portion of 2010. Good luck in Rochester, Jacque!
• Clay Condrey hit the DL, bringing Alex Burnett into the Twins bullpen. That's somewhat of a surprise, considering Burnett hasn't pitched above AA. But he was on the 40-man, and he definitely has promise, so why not? He's going to throw all of 2 IP before they send him down in favor of Ron Mahay. He'll join Anthony Slama and Rob Delaney in what has to be one of the most lights-out bullpens in the International League. We'll see all three of those guys by September.
• Wilson Ramos and Ben Revere both raised their stock a bit during their time in the Twins' camp. I hope they get traded for something spiffy - sell high, Bill Smith!
• Target Field looks magnificent. I wonder when I'll get to go there...

Deciding Not To Decide

Gardy and Bill Smith just about established the Twins' opening day roster over the weekend. Matt Tolbert was optioned to Rochester, where he'll be joined by Jacque Jones, leaving the last bench spot to Alexi Casilla. After the way he's performed over the last season plus, I'm not sure who would want to claim him off of waivers, but he'll get one more chance to prove he can have some value in the bigs.

Anthony Slama was also informed that he won't make the team. With him out of the running, and Glen Perkins in no shape to pitch, it's pretty evident which 12 pitchers will come north next week. Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn are all announced members of the rotation. Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, and Jose Mijares are going to be participating in a closer-by-committee early in the season. Clay Condrey's inability to get ground balls this spring is disconcerting, but he's surely going to make the bullpen.

Francisco Liriano and Brian Duensing are apparently still competing for the last spot in the rotation, inasmuch as Gardy refuses to declare Liriano the winner. He will admit that Liriano is in the lead, however. So unless Liriano pitches worse against the Pirates on Tuesday than Duensing pitches against (I presume) the Yankees or Rays on Wednesday, Liriano will get his chance to outshine Baker. That would send Duensing into the bullpen as a 2nd LHP/long relief guy - a good role for him.

Gardy also refuses to guarantee a spot for Pat Neshek, despite strong numbers (8.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 11 K) in his first action since May 2008. Apparently, there's some question as to whether he'll be able to manage pitching 2 days in a row. Honestly. I find it hard to believe that someone who has rehabbed and conditioned as hard as Neshek would have any trouble throwing 15-20 pitches on 2 straight days. They'll test him on Wednesday and Thursday, and, assuming he doesn't get shelled or hurt himself on Thursday, he'll have to make the team. I mean, who's going to take that spot instead? Ron Mahay? He hasn't pitched in a game yet. And even when he does, I doubt he'll be able to approach the performance Neshek has given so far.

The only spot that's up in the air is the temporary backup catcher position. Wilson Ramos has shown conclusively that he's a far better all-around player than Drew Butera. But experience and concerns about starting Ramos' service clock may carry the day for Butera.

I'd like to see the Twins field the best team they can given the guys they brought to camp, and I'm not sure they're going to do that. But if they don't, at least it won't be at any positions where they're relying on that person to play a lot. The rest of the team is good enough to pick up the slack, at least for the first few weeks of the season.

Midway through Spring Training

Today's game put the Twins over the hump of their spring training schedule: 16 games down, 14 to go. Most of the projected members of the 25-man roster are performing quite well through their limited appearances to this point:

Denard Span: .455/.520/.455, 3/3 SB
Joe Mauer: .462/.563/.462
Justin Morneau: .263/.263/.579, HR
Michael Cuddyer: .464/.516/.607, HR
Jason Kubel: .333/.394/.600, 2 HR
Jim Thome: .273/.385/.545, HR
Brendan Harris: .400/.429/.640, HR
Scott Baker: 9 IP, 11 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
Nick Blackburn: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
Carl Pavano: 13 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Kevin Slowey: 11 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 10 K
Francisco Liriano: 10 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 1 BB 16 K
Jon Rauch: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
Matt Guerrier: 6 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Jesse Crain: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Pat Neshek: 5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K

They've also seen strong work from some of their most promising farmhands:

Ben Revere: .316/.316/.447, 2/3 SB
Wilson Ramos: .381/.381/.714, HR
Danny Valencia: .273/.292/.636, 2 HR
Juan Portes: .409/.458/.864, 3 HR
Luke Hughes: .333/.333/.619, HR
Trevor Plouffe: .333/.385/.667, 4 2B
Anthony Slama: 4 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

Among those for whom things haven't fallen into place yet, there are a lot of silver linings:

Orlando Hudson is off to a slow start with the bat (.236/.281/.269), but has made an impression with his defense.
Delmon Young has just 4 H, but 3 are for extra bases, and he's drawn 3 BB against 7 K.
Nick Punto is just 3 for 20, but has drawn 4 BB in 24 PA, a pace in keeping with his excellent BB% from 2009.
Jose Mijares has put up a 0 in 4/5 outings.
Rob Delaney allowed 3 ER on 9 H in 5.1 IP, but had 0 BB and 9 K.

Everyone's being very cautious with injuries, particularly to the veterans, which has led to very little playing time for Mauer, Morneau, Thome, JJ Hardy and Blackburn so far. They should start to ramp up their AB/IP in the coming days.

Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert are both struggling, opening the door somewhat for Jacque Jones (.318/.400/.409) to steal the last bench spot. Ramos continues to lead Drew Butera (.167/.250/.167) for the backup catcher spot.

Mike Maroth (7 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 1 K) is also leading the likely Rochester rotation, with Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Jeff Manship and Anthony Swarzak all putting up ERAs over 9.00 and WHIPs over 1.71. Though his ERA is tidy, Maroth's 1.71 WHIP and 1/3 K/BB ratio won't be nearly enough to supplant Liriano in the rotation. Gardy and the coaches are preparing Liriano to begin the season as a starter - I think that makes the job his to lose. And with a 2.70 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 16/1 K/BB ratio, he's not giving anything away so far.

We'll likely know in the next day or so what Joe Nathan's fate will be. Assuming he opts for TJS, the Twins can place him on the 60-day DL and add Slama to the 40-man roster. Rauch still looks the guy to start the year as the closer. If, after 2 months, things aren't working out with him, they can assess whether Neshek or Crain would be ready to assume that role (they each saved games in the minors), or whether they should look for a closer in a trade. By then, Valencia may be ready to assume the 3B job, meaning Harris and/or one of the relievers could be offered, perhaps with a 3-star prospect.

In the meantime, when is Mauer going to sign that contract extension?

Francisco Liriano and the Blustery Day

Now, before you look at today's box score and jump to conclusions about how Francisco Liriano had a rough game, and can't handle pitching more than a couple of innings or one trip through the lineup, do me a favor. Scroll all the way down to the bottom. Past the pitchers. Past the umpires. To the part where it says: "Wind: 19 mph, Out to RF"

The wind played havoc with popups all day. In the 8th inning, Wilson Ramos one-armed a ball that drifted to the base of the wall in right center for a 2B. So when a dude who's 6'5" and 240 lbs. lifts a high fly ball to the opposite field, it shouldn't trouble anybody too much that it managed to carry a little ways over the RF fence. (Certainly not in the same that it should trouble the Marlins that Chris Volstad gave up a HR to Jason Kubel that swiftly reached halfway up one of the light towers in right center.) Especially when only 6 of the 13 hitters Liriano faced managed to put the ball in play, and he didn't walk anyone. If anything, the mistake he made was in allowing an 0-2 single to the hack-tastic Emilio Bonifacio. I'm not sure where that pitch was located, but it was undoubtedly too close to the strike zone.

Even with the wind-aided blemish on his record, Liriano is still the clear front-runner in the competition for the 5th slot in the Twins rotation:

Liriano: 7 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12/1 K/BB
Perkins: 3.2 IP, 12.27 ERA, 3.27 WHIP, 0/4 K/BB
Duensing: 4 IP, 11.25 ERA, 2.50 WHIP, 5/2 K/BB

And, depending on how charitable you're feeling, you can throw in:

Manship: 3 IP, 18.00 ERA, 3.33 WHIP, 1/2 K/BB
Swarzak: 2.2 IP, 16.87 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, 4/2 K/BB
Maroth: 4 IP, 6.75 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, 0/2 K/BB

I suppose it's only fair to give everybody one more appearance, but Liriano would have to pitch remarkably poorly to even open the door a tiny bit for any of these guys.

Along those lines, Ramos looks to be running away with the temporary backup to Joe Mauer role:

Ramos: 15 PA, .400/.400/.667 with 4 2B
Butera: 13 PA, .182/.308/.182

We all knew Ramos had lots of upside with the stick and that Butera wasn't much of a hitter, and so far that's what we've seen. Ramos made an error today, but it was on one of the afore-mentioned adventuresome popups, so I wouldn't worry about it too much. He seemed to have a good report with Carl Pavano the other day against the Phillies.

At this point, I think the only reason not to bring up Ramos for the first couple weeks of the season is to postpone the start of his service clock. But for the amount of time that will accrue (15-20 days, right?), I'm not sure that should be much of a concern. Especially when the division projects to be as close as it does, I'd rather have a competent hitter in the lineup for those 3-4 April games when Mauer needs to sit down. Besides, once Mauer signs his extension, Ramos most likely becomes a trade piece, so his service clock will be someone else's problem.

I'm sure they'll drag them out for awhile, but these seem like easy choices to me.

Nathan's Elbow and Other Developments

The news on Joe Nathan's elbow is not good: he's got a significant tear in his UCL and will most likely need Tommy John surgery, meaning he'll be lost to the Twins for the 2010 season. Obviously, it's a huge loss for the Twins to be without their All-Star closer, who has been one of the most consistently excellent at his position since coming to the Twins in 2004. However, all is not lost.

Much has been written about how the role of closer has become overrated, and how just about any competent pitcher should be able to succeed most of the time when asked to hold a lead of up to 3 runs for only 1 inning. For as good as Nathan was last year, he still blew 5 saves (not including the one in the playoffs). And that's normal. Look down the list of the top closers last year, and you'll see that, despite sparkling ERAs and WHIPs and K/9s, only a handful got through the season with 3 or fewer blown saves. And the one who managed to have the fewest blown saves? Detroit's Fernando Rodney, he of the 4.40 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 7.3 K/9. Would I prefer to have a guy in the role who I could basically pencil in for an ERA under 2.50 and better than 9.0 K/9? Of course. But lacking that doesn't mean the Twins will lose any more games than they would have with Nathan.

The guy is 35 this year. Closers often age very well, and he's in fantastic shape, but a decline has to come sooner or later. There's no guarantee that Nathan would have been as effective this year as he has been in the past.

The other reason I'm not too broken up about this is that the Twins did set themselves up with a very deep bullpen this year. With Nathan set to close and Duensing or Perkins probably picking up the 7th spot in the 'pen as the long reliever, the Twins still had Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jesse Crain and Clay Condrey for middle relief. That's enough depth to stash Pat Neshek in the minors for awhile. Now, he will have to prove that he's recovered enough of his stuff and command to break camp with the team. If that breaks right for the Twins, I don't think that the non-save situation bullpen is going to be any weaker, even though one of the setup guys will have to move into the Closer role.

In addition, the Twins will have 3 good setup prospects at AAA: Anthony Slama, Rob Delaney and Alex Burnett. And Kyle Waldrop and recent high draft picks Carlos Gutierrez, Billy Bullock, Matt Bashore and Ben Tootle all have the potential to scoot through the system and be options late in the season. At this point, these prospects look to have the ability to eventually meet or exceed the production of some of the present members of the Twins' 'pen. So, if something goes awry with the bullpen this season, the Twins won't have to call up someone with mediocre stuff like Bobby Keppel.

The long-term implications of this seem bigger to me. I was already preparing to think of trading Nathan next offseason, particularly if one or more of the prospects I mentioned progress up to the big leagues. The way the last couple of offseasons have gone, Type A free agents haven't necessarily been signed, especially relievers. Maybe Nathan would be a special case, but he'd be heading into his late 30's by the time his Twins contract is up, and there's no guarantee that another team would want to give up 2 high draft picks for Nathan at that stage of his career. Would he opt for arbitration with the Twins? Maybe, and that would probably keep him at around $12M for 2013. Will there be room in the payroll to give that much money to a 38-year-old Joe Nathan, when the Twins will have so many other cheap relievers in their prime?

Since they can't count on getting much value for him should he depart as a free agent, the best strategy for the team would probably have been to trade Nathan after this year, saving $23.75M while gaining 2-3 quality prospects. Now that's out the window. I can't see another team giving up good prospects for a guy coming off TJS. The Twins will have to see what Nathan can give them in 2011. If that creates payroll problems, they'll have to look to unload one of the other veterans.

Blackburn's Contract

I've been working on a separate post about this, but it's expanded itself into an attempt to make a case for why Blackburn is a better pitcher than his numbers indicate. That's proving to be sort of difficult to compile. Lest the news get too stale, let me just say that I think the contract is pretty reasonable. 200 IP of average-ish pitching is certainly worth $3.5M/year. Look at what the Twins are paying for Carl Pavano. Maybe he'll be a little better than average. But how good a bet is he to make 200 IP?

Pitchers like Blackburn frequently make way more than that in free agency and arbitration. So he'll be an attractive trade candidate should the Twins develop better options (like Kyle Gibson). Not a huge risk for a guy who has been remarkably consistent through his first 2 full seasons.

The First Week of Grapefruit Games

Carl Pavano became the first Twins pitcher I projected to make the opening day roster to allow an ER this spring. Even with his semi-rough outing (and Delmon Young could have saved him a couple of runs in the first had he been able to make a sliding catch), those 12 pitchers have a 0.84 ERA and 0.90 WHIP through 32.1 IP with 9 BB, 22 K and 0 HR allowed. We've also seen 2 perfect IP from Anthony Slama with 3 K.

The hitting also portends well. In 2 games so far, the Twins' (mostly) regular lineup has demolished elite pitchers Jon Lester and Adam Wainwright to the tune of 8 ER in 3 IP. They've also been getting some nice AB from some of the prospects who might be needed depending on who hits the DL over the course of the season - guys like Danny Valencia, Brock Peterson, Wilson Ramos and Ben Revere.

Shout Out from the Geek

Finally, I got a nice mention for a comment I recently left the Twins Geek. Thanks, Geek. That means a lot coming from you. You know, I write like that on this blog all the time. And I don't stop at "preposterous" - I've been known to use "auspicious" and "asinine" too.

Don't be a stranger!

The First Setbacks

After 2 games of pretty stellar pitching, things were bound to break down for the Twins. On the plus side:

Francisco Liriano pitched 2 scoreless innings, allowing 1 single, 1 BB and a HBP with 3 K. All of the baserunners came in the first inning - chalk that up to being too keyed up for his spring debut. 2 of the 3 non-K outs were grounders. I'll take it, and look forward to seeing what he can do in his next start when he should be more relaxed out of the gate.

Nice debut for Jose Mijares today, a 1-2-3 inning with a K. Quite a contrast from last spring.

Through 3 games, the pitchers I expect to make the opening day roster have thrown 13.1 shutout IP, allowing 4 H and 5 BB with 10 K.

Now the minuses:

Joe Nathan had to leave after facing 3 batters with tightness in his pitching elbow. This is supposedly a normal side-effect of the bone chip removal surgery he had during the offseason. Having just had some soreness in my surgically repaired knee at my softball game on Thursday, I can accept this explanation. I felt better yesterday and perfect today, so we'll hope Nathan's pain also dissipates quickly. Never a good thing to hear that one of your All-Star pitchers is having elbow pain, though.

Glen Perkins, whose job this spring is essentially to raise his trade value, didn't do much on that front. He bailed Nathan out of a 2 on, 1 out jam in the 3rd, but then got touched for 2 ER on 3 H and 2 BB in the 4th. His comments after the game suggested that his shoulder still isn't quite 100%. That isn't of any use to anybody.

Jeff Manship had a 1-2-3 6th, but then got lit up in the 7th for 4 ER on 6 H, including a 3-run HR. It occurred to me that one indicator of the Twins' success in 2010 will be how few innings they need from Manship. If he's in Rochester all season, it means the big league rotation is both healthy and productive. Relying on Manship for any length of time would be a pretty big step down from the intended starters.

Another Fine Day

The members of the Twins' 25-man roster continued their auspicious start to the Grapefruit League season. 8/9ths of the opening day lineup torched Red Sox co-Ace Jon Lester for 4 ER on 3 H and 2 BB, forcing him from the game after just 1 IP. Denard Span, Orlando Hudson and Joe Mauer did their jobs, loading the bases for Justin Morneau, who drove in 2 with a 2B. Michael Cuddyer followed with an RBI single, and Delmon Young later added a SF to RF. Alexi Casilla subbed in mid-game and drove in the Twins' 5th run with a single to CF. He was moved to CF in the 8th inning, and allowed a deep drive to bounce off his glove for a 2B. You'd think the guy never played OF or something.

Carl Pavano didn't have the greatest control, walking 2 in 2 IP, but he was able to pitch around trouble. Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier and Clay Condrey all threw perfect innings. Then Rochester's back-end trio of Rob Delaney, Anthony Slama and Alex Burnett combined for 3 scoreless IP with 2 ground ball singles and 3 K. Deolis Guerra wrapped it up by pitching around Casilla's misplay in CF, inducing a game-ending DP with runners at the corners.

Tiny sample sizes, to be sure. Then again, you feel better about the way Nick Blackburn pitched last night while facing 6 Sox regulars than the Sox fans must feel about how Lester did against 8 Twins regulars.

Tomorrow: Francisco Liriano's spring debut!

The Games Begin

At last, the Twins have a game in the books, and we can start talking about how people are performing against real competition. Well, as real as spring training games get. During the first half of March, I just want to see players showing signs that they're going to be ready to do their thing once the regular season starts. Are the pitchers hitting their spots? Are the hitters having good PA? Is everyone making the plays in the field? For the guys that have a legitimate shot at breaking camp with the Twins, the answers to those questions were almost uniformly positive.

Denard Span led off the game with a single off Josh Beckett, and scored what would be the Twins' only run of the game. Alexi Casilla went 0-2, but had a hit taken away by a diving Marco Scutaro leading off the 4th. Jason Kubel drove in Span with a single off Beckett, then drew a walk against tough LHP Hideki Okajima. Michael Cuddyer went 1-2. Jacque Jones struck out after a lengthy AB vs. Beckett, but he made a nice diving catch in LF. Only Brendan Harris failed to do something memorable - and he was only around for 4 innings.

The pitching side of things was just as encouraging. Nick Blackburn worked 2 scoreless IP, allowing just an IF single to Dustin Pedroia, and getting 4 of 6 outs on the ground. Kevin Slowey followed with his first appearance since July. He raised some doubts about his readiness in an interview earlier this week, suggesting that his wrist wasn't feeling right. However his wrist felt, it didn't seem to effect his pitching. He also allowed just 1 H in 2 IP, while striking out 2. And, of course, walking no one.

Perhaps the best story of the night was the return of Pat Neshek, absent from the Twins' bullpen since early May of 2008. In his first inning back, he set down Scutaro, Jeremy Hermida and prospect Josh Reddick in order, striking out Reddick. The 2 balls put in play were weakly hit. No signs of struggles with command, a typical side-effect for those trying to recover from TJS.

That the folks who will be filling out the Rochester and New Britain rosters failed to muster any hits (save one single by Luke Hughes) doesn't trouble me in the least. Nor does the fact that Mike Maroth couldn't handle the top of the Red Sox order, or that Jose Lugo lost the game in the bottom of the 8th. The minor leaguers will have plenty of chances to win or lose games late over the next couple of weeks. I'm just glad to see the big leaguers put their best foot forward in their brief appearances in this first game.

The Breaks: Morneau

When Justin Morneau took over 1B for good in the middle of the 2004 season, I didn't just think that the Twins were sure to snap their drought of 30 HR seasons. That was certain to happen, based on the young slugger's 19 HR in just 280 AB that season. No, I figured the Twins were going to have their first 40 HR hitter since Harmon Killebrew. Though Morneau hit just .271/.340/.536, hardly the most slugtastic line we'd seen in that juiced-up period, his combined total between the Majors and AAA in 2004 was 41 HR in 568 AB. In Rochester, he'd been slugging close to 1.000. Surely, if he could accomplish that as a 23 year-old rookie, he was bound to repeat the feat soon in a full season for the Twins.

This May, Morneau will turn 29. Some would say he's already peaked. And his career averages with the stick are .280/.350/.501 - actually lower than what he put up in his rookie year - with about 30 HR/162 G. Most of the projections I've seen for his 2010 season so far have him hitting around that, but with improved OBP. PECOTA has him at .284/.372/.508 with 29 HR. After 5+ seasons and about 3500 PA, we should know what kind of player Morneau is, and that projection looks about right based on his career so far. He's a good 1B, not a great one.

But I still think of Morneau as a 40 HR guy who is underachieving. Why? Because, with the exception of a fluky 2008 in which more drives than usual found the top of the wall (leading to a career-high 47 2B, but only 23 HR), the guy has consistently put himself on pace through the first 2/3 of the season to hit 40 HR. Look at his numbers through the end of July from the last 4 seasons:

2006: .321/.364/.601, 28 HR
2007: .297/.363/.574, 28 HR
2008: .321/.396/.534, 18 HR
2009: .305/.390/.576, 26 HR

And remember, last year the season started a week later than the previous years. Give him a few days into August and it goes up to .301/.391/.589 with 28 HR.

So from the start of the season until the 1st of August, Morneau is a .311/.379/.570 hitter with 35-40 HR power. That's somebody who fits right in with Miguel Cabrera and Mark Teixeira. A great 1B.

Unfortunately, once the calendar turns to August, things invariably go downhill. His combined line from August 1st on since 2006: .255/.334/.406 with 12-15 HR power. That's somebody who fits right in with Brendan Harris. If that's what you're getting from your 1B, you've got problems. And even that line is propped up a bit by his strong finish to 2006. Look at his BA over the last 4 seasons:

And then his OPS:

4 years of Aprils, Mays, Junes and Julys make 16 individual months. In just 2 of those months did Morneau have a BA below .250, and his OPS dipped below .750 in just one. But he failed to meet those thresholds in 5 of the 8 individual Augusts and Septembers over those seasons. Basically, that means Morneau is about 10 times more likely to hit poorly in the last 2 months of the season as he is in the first 4 months. And even in the 3 late-season months in which he didn't suck, he still wasn't hitting HR anywhere close to his early season pace. Look at what happens to his power:

His IsoP has been above .200 in 13 out of 16 months from April-July. But it's never been above .200 in August or September.

This isn't a matter of luck - variances in BABIP or the like. This is a systemic problem with Morneau himself. He runs out of gas before the season is over. He may have thought it was a problem with his conditioning. Maybe that's why he's trained so hard in the offseason, reported early to spring training, and showed up first thing in the morning to work on his hitting. But that regimen hasn't paid off. He still wore down over the course of 2008, playing all 163 games and fading badly enough down the stretch to cost the Twins the division and himself a 2nd MVP award. Then he arrived in game shape by mid-February 2009 so he could go off to play for Canada in the WBC (and hit quite well in their brief appearance). Though Gardy tried to give him more days off and at DH, Morneau still broke down by mid-August, when he missed a week, and finally shut things down 3 weeks before the end of the season.

Time to try a different approach. That's why reading these stories has given me new hope for Morneau in 2010. If he can adjust his training schedule so that he doesn't reach his previous mid-February shape until the first week of April, could that mean that he won't reach his early-August fatigue level until late September? What would it mean for the Twins if he could sustain that .311/.379/.570 line through the final 2 months of the season?

The PECOTA projection I gave above, combined with his typical, above-average defense, would be worth 3.9 WARP. His 80th percentile projection is for .306/.391/.577 with 38 HR. That season would be worth 5.8 WARP. If Morneau's lighter offseason workload can translate into a more consistent full season, it could mean 2 more wins for the Twins. And we all know from the last 2 seasons how far an extra couple of wins can take a team in the AL Central.

Backup Backstop

The Twins announced 3 cuts this morning: Alejandro Machado, Jose Mijares (finally), and Drew Butera. That anoints Jose Morales as Mike Redmond's backup (Mike Redmond's backup: I don't like the sound of that). Prior to spring training last year, I thought Morales would be a good choice for the 25th man, so I'm certainly pleased to see the Twins go with him now. With Mauer hurt, Joe Crede getting starts at 3rd, and Denard Span no sure thing to lead off every game with the spring he's put together, the Twins are suddenly pretty right-handed. The switch-hitting Morales gives Gardy an opportunity to add another left-handed bat on days the Twins face a RHP. Since he's a good hitter, Morales could also be a good choice to pinch-hit (if they're not too chicken to use up their last catcher). Morales has been at Rochester for 2 years, suffering some injury setbacks along the way. He deserved this opportunity, and I'm glad he's getting it.

Mijares' demotion apparently clears the way for Brian Duensing to fill the role of 12th pitcher (unnecessary on a team with a deep rotation). His advantage appears to be mainly that he is left-handed. I can think of a LHP the Twins could have signed rather cheaply who would likely have performed a lot better than Duensing will (hint: he has no neck). However, Duensing has done pretty well at Rochester over the past 2 seasons, and I suppose he also deserves a shot. I would be inclined to option him back down once Joe Mauer is ready to return, however, since I think we're going to find over the first 2 weeks of the season that the Twins aren't going to need enough innings from their bullpen to justify keeping 12 pitchers.

Twins 12, Pirates 8
This was most likely the worst all-around game the Twins have been involved in this spring. At least a quarter of the Twins' 19 hits were fly balls that the Pirates simply failed to catch. Bucs fans could not have been comforted to see their presumed #5 starter getting knocked around by the likes of Chris Parmelee and Matt Moses - whose effort today must, sadly, rank among the finest games of his disappointing pro career - and their closer getting lit up by a succession of AA or lower hitters.

Nick Blackburn was nowhere near as good as his line. Three times, Brendan Harris dove to his right to cut off balls that were labeled for CF, twice turning them into outs. Denard Span made a catch while crashing into the wall in CF. It would be fair to say that Blackburn kept his fielders on their toes.

The same could not be said of the pitching prospects who finished the game. With the temperature on the field about 90 degrees, the game almost 3 hours old, the Twins leading by 9 and both teams using almost exclusively low minor leaguers, it must have killed home plate umpire Tim Tschida to have to call ball after ball from reliever Joe Testa. The only out the Twins were able to make of the first 8 Pirates who came to the plate in the 9th was on an infield fly that wasn't caught. Ugh.

Brian Buscher hopefully earned himself a day off by playing all 9 innings at 3rd base. I hope I'm not jinxing him, but I want to point out that he hasn't made an error this spring at either 1B or 3B. In fact, the Twins' regulars have only committed a handful or errors all spring, an improvement which I expect to continue into the regular season.

Tomorrow, RA Dickey will start against Tampa while Scott Baker gets his work in vs. some minor leaguers. This start will be Dickey's last big chance to blow it on the field before the Twins are forced to admit to everyone that Philip Humber's option situation meant all along that Dickey had no chance to make the team. For what it's worth, Dickey has had a more impressive spring than Duensing. It might be more useful to have a knuckleballer in the 'pen than a lefty who isn't that good at getting lefties out. Here's hoping Dickey makes it hard on them.

Just Like the Real Thing

Twins 3, Rays 2

This was as close to a proper baseball game as I've seen this spring. Each team used just 3 pitchers with the starter going 6 IP, and Tampa made just 2 substitutions, 1 a very reasonable platoon PH in the 9th. Glen Perkins got through the Rays' best Upton-less lineup about 2.5 times, allowing 0 R on 4 H, 1 BB and 4 K. He was aided in his shutout by the mighty right arm of Micheal Cuddyer. With runners at 2nd and 3rd and no outs in the 2nd, Dioner Navarro hit a fly to medium deep RF. As Cuddy lined it up I felt myself hoping that they'd test him. Carl Crawford might have made it a close play; as it was, Cuddyer's throw beat first baseman Carlos Pena to the plate by more than 10 feet. Pena never even touched the plate - Jose Morales blocked the baseline as he tagged, deflecting Pena into foul territory.

I don't think Brian Duensing did himself any favors today. Supposedly on the bubble as a lefty specialist for the 'pen, he fell behind most of the hitters he faced and allowed a HR to Pena, a lefty. Matt Guerrier, on the other hand, continued his recent success, efficiently picking up an extra out in the 9th after Tommy Watkins kicked what should have been the last play of the game.

I continue to worry about Denard Span. He took a couple of called 3rd strikes from Matt Garza today, the same sort he was taking last year and throughout the spring. Belt-high, starting inside and moving over the corner, and down and away. Is he looking for off-speed pitches in those counts? Or is the strike zone just a bit bigger than he thinks it is? Either way, his sophomore campaign won't be a success unless he can make an adjustment to his approach and start spoiling those pitches.

More cuts tomorrow...

Draft Day

I had a good time at the draft today. Our league is scoring some unorthodox categories, and it was difficult to assess early on how many guys would be using ESPN's default rankings as their guide, and how many had wasted hours of their lives researching which players averaged the most assists/game over the last few seasons. (Like I did.) As it turned out, most were on the ESPN side, so I was able to get almost all of the guys I wanted. Unfortunately, I missed out on Russell Martin by 4 picks when someone over-exuberantly selected Joe Mauer early in the 6th round (I wasn't going to take him unless he fell to the 8th), starting a mini-run on catchers. I had hoped to take Martin, a serviceable backup like Chris Snyder (we're scoring defense), and then stash Matt Wieters on the bench until the Orioles are ready to start his service clock. I've got Snyder and Wieters, but that leaves me a catcher short at the moment.

I spent the draft at the home of my co-commissioner, Kenneth the Cards fan. I had my spreadsheets laid out on the dining room table while he did his work on a desktop + a laptop in the 2nd bedroom. My greatest satisfaction of the day was listening to him curse several times when I made my picks, depriving him of Carlos Beltran, Joey Devine, JJ Putz and Ricky Nolasco. There may have been others, it got to be a blur after awhile. Maybe that was because the draft lasted only about 2 hours for 25 rounds, and yet I managed to drink at least 5 beers while I was there. Hmm...

I got to see just a bit of the Twins game before we got started. Kevin Slowey continues to make me very happy. I thought Chris Carpenter looked very good - the Twins were rather fortunate to get a few runs off him early. But credit Carlos Gomez for looking to go the other way with a 2-out, 2-run double that ended up being the difference in the game. 2008 Gomez would have struck out feebly on 3 pitches (kinda like 2009 Gomez did in his first AB). As for Jose Mijares, can we just cut him already? Ugh.

There is an interview with Glen Perkins over at Baseball Prospectus that you might want to check out. Hopefully, he'll continue his effective spring tomorrow.

The Mayor's Cup is Lost!

Red Sox 9, Twins 4
Sox win Mayor's Cup 3-1

For the 3rd straight year, the Twins have fallen short in their quest for the Mayor's Cup. While players may show a brave face to the media, saying that their main goal in spring training is to "get in shape" or "work on their stuff," we all know that losing out on this hardware has to hurt. These little setbacks build character. At least, that's what I've been telling myself since game #163 last fall.

It's funny how similar today's game was to the Twins' last appearance at City of Palms park, when the score was 9-5 and it was Scott Baker who was touched for a couple of home runs. The real culprit today, even more than the long ball, was poor control by the pitchers. Any time you see more runs than hits in the box score, you know something was off when the defense was on the field. Twins pitchers combined for 8 BB and 2 HBP today, and 5 of those guys scored. Blech.

(My fantasy league this year is scoring IP, ERA, K, BB and HR allowed. Needless to say, Liriano had an atrocious day by those standards, only scoring well with 5 K in his 3 IP.)

Not much happened on the offensive side either (no walks for the Twins today), but that's been the exception for most of this week. Matt Tolbert is starting to look like quite a bruiser (surely the wind has helped him this spring). Delmon Young's 0-4 day including a couple of loud fly ball outs. I wish I could say the same about Denard Span's 0-4.

The Twins worked out a trade with the Yankees this morning, sending Class A pitcher Charles Nolte to NY in order to keep the rights to Jason Jones, who now heads to the Red Wings' rotation. Nolte had a 2.05 ERA in 44 relief appearances for A- Beloit last year, posting a 75/35 K/BB ratio in 70.1 IP. Most impressively, he allowed only 1 HR all season thanks to a really good sinker. He was only a 27th round pick, starting his age 23 season at A+, so I suppose he wasn't too important to the Twins' long-term plans. Then again, a guy who gave up less than a hit per IP, struck out more than a batter per IP, and got grounders almost 5 times as often as he gave up flies could have had some utility as at least a situational righty out of the 'pen. (He would be very useful in my fantasy league, especially to compliment a low-BB, high-HR guy like Kevin Slowey).

With Jones secured a place in AAA, and RA Dickey signed to a minor league contract, and Philip Humber out of options, it seems pretty clear that Humber has a place on the 25-man roster. His outing today was encouraging. Like most of the Twins pitchers, he allowed a walk that came around to score, but he struck out 3 batters in 2 IP, including Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell. His pattern reminded of Glen Perkins when he's effective: back and forth between the fastball and the slow stuff. There's potential there, as with Perkins, if Humber can command the fastball and at least one of his off-speed pitches.

Draft day is tomorrow - I'm ready to dominate!

The Middle Third

Grapefruit League Record: 12-10

I've been submerged in research for my fantasy draft coming up on Sunday. The Twins' latter games of last week weren't terribly inspiring, anyway, the losses coming from the poor play of people who won't be on the team come April. There have been some slow signs of progress, though. The Twins are 2/3 of the way through their spring schedule, so I thought I'd hand out report cards:

Getting It Done
Alexi Casilla - I'm particularly happy to see him stealing bases.
Justin Morneau - throw in his WBC performance and he's at .353/.405/.647. That'll work.
Jason Kubel - though only 2 XBH so far.
Delmon Young - good to see that the pull power he's displayed hasn't diminished his GIDP prowess. I'd like to see a couple of walks before the end of camp.
Brian Buscher - putting up the numbers he had at Rochester.
Brendan Harris - putting up the numbers Buscher had at Rochester.
Carlos Gomez - I'd be happy with a .341 OBP from him in any circumstances, but combined with a 6/5 K/BB rate and .615 SLG% is amazing. Can he sustain it? (The OBP, I mean.)
Francisco Liriano - a few too many walks for me, but the overall line is fantastic.
Glen Perkins - time to see how does with the 3rd trip through the batting order.
Kevin Slowey - damn, he's good.
Craig Breslow - seriously, what were the Indians thinking last year?
Jesse Crain - throw in his WBC performance and he's at 1.00 ERA, 0.33 WHIP and 9.00 K/9.
R.A. Dickey - I did not think he would be leading the team in K/9 at this stage of the spring.
Brian Duensing - though too many walks, not enough strikeouts.

So Far, So Good
Michael Cuddyer - if he can deliver an .802 OPS during the season, too, the Twins will be in good shape.
Mike Redmond - a .700 OPS from a 38-year-old backup catcher ain't too bad.
Nick Punto - combined with his anemic WBC performance, he's done OK this spring.
Matt Tolbert - his versatility, along with his recent power surge, however wind-blown, has him looking like he'll retain his spot on the roster.
Philip Humber - other than his first outing, he's been good - though I'd like to see some more strikeouts.
Kevin Mulvey - too bad the game went extras last week, or his line would be even better.
Jason Jones - the WHIP and K/BB ratio probably aren't good enough to make the team.

Need To Pick It Up
Denard Span - showed some flashes early last week, then right back into the funk.
Joe Crede - with Buscher and Harris both enjoying an OPS in the mid .900s, it'd be nice to see Crede at least crack .600.
Jose Morales - I'd prefer to see him make the team over Drew Butera, since Morales is the better hitter. So, hit Jose!
Scott Baker - almost got through 5 quality IP yesterday. At least he didn't give up any homers. Baby steps...
Matt Guerrier - hopefully, today's quick 1-2-3 inning is a harbinger of things to come.
Jose Mijares - oh, just cut him already!

Need To See More
Joe Nathan
Luis Ayala
Nick Blackburn
Drew Butera
Joe Mauer - someday?

First Cuts

Red Sox 9, Twins 5
Sox lead Mayor's Cup 2-1

Happy St. Patrick's Day! It was fun to watch all the Sox fans in their green garb this afternoon.

I'm going to have to add Scott Baker and Matt Guerrier to the list of players I'm starting to worry about. Baker has now been blown to bits in consecutive starts, allowing 8 ER on 6 HR and 2 2B in 6 IP between the two games. Sure, he's a fly-ball pitcher, and those were hitter's parks with the wind blowing out. But none of the homers were particularly cheap. The worst was the shot by our old friend David Ortiz. Baker had just made him look silly half-swinging at a high and tight fastball, then followed it up with a hanging changeup over the heart of the plate. On 0-2. Eek. Bad pitch selection, bad execution. Hitters are very comfortable against Baker right now, and he's not locating his pitches, and the results aren't pretty. I really want to see 5 solid innings from him the next time out.

I was hoping to see Guerrier shake off his late-season meltdown and get back to business as usual this year, but what we've seen of him so far this spring (8.22 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, 2.35 HR/9, 4.7 BB/9, 4.7 K/9) looks awfully similar to the Guerrier of last August (10.13 ERA, 2.06 WHIP, 2.53 HR/9, 5.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9) and September (10.00 ERA, 2.56 WHIP, 3 HR/9, 8 BB/9, 6 K/9). Never mind my confidence in him - his self-confidence probably depends upon him throwing up a couple of comfortable 0s over his next few outings.

Another inning, another run allowed for Jose Mijares. He was set up to escape with just 1 H allowed, with 2 K under his belt and ahead 0-2 on Jacoby Ellsbury's sub, but he lost him for a walk, then gave up an RBI single. Carlos Gomez bailed him out by cutting down the trailing runner trying to go first-to-third. As you'll see below, Mijares survived this round of cuts, but he still doesn't look like big-league material right now.

The bright spot in today's game for me was Denard Span. He put up his second straight multi-hit game, capped by an aggressive HR leading off the 5th against Jonathan Papelbon. Though it wasn't quite enough to bring his BA north of the Mendoza line, these 2 games have quadrupled his TB, bringing his OPS to a much more palatable .592. The way Casilla and Gomez are swinging, the Twins could have the exciting 9, 1 and 2 hitters they're hoping for in the lineup.

There were some great examples today of how the box score doesn't really tell you how people performed. Brian Buscher, though 0-3 with a K, was pitched exceedingly toughly by Josh Beckett on the strikeout, then was robbed of a base hit on a diving snare of a sharp liner in his last AB. Beckett had a tough 2nd inning, but without ever really being squared up: Michael Cuddyer led off with a hardish grounder right over 3rd for a double, Buscher struck out, Gomez walked on a very close 3-2 pitch, Jose Morales chipped a ball just out of the reach of SS Jed Lowrie, Brendan Harris reached on a swinging bunt down the 3B line, Denard Span got a bloop RBI single just out of the reach of a diving Jason Bay in LF, and Alexi Casilla reached on a swinging bunt down the 1B line. Though he'd needed about 45 pitches to record just 4 outs to that point, Beckett was able to get the next 8 outs on just 15 pitches. (A reporter asked him how it felt to see the offense doing so much to support him on a day when he didn't have his best stuff; a deadpan Beckett replied, "I don't understand the question.")

The Twins cut 20% of the players in camp this morning. Armando Gabino, Anthony Swarzak, Trevor Plouffe and Steve Tolleson were optioned to AAA Rochester, Deibinson Romero was optioned to A+ Fort Myers, and Rob Delaney, Ben Julianel, Danny Lehmann, Danny Valencia, Toby Gardenhire and Dustin Martin were reassigned to minor league camp. No surprises there. Many of those players made the most of their limited opportunities this spring, and will be watched with interest over the course of the coming season.

Signs of Life

We're about halfway through spring training, a time when the sample sizes are beginning to get large enough that you'd like to start to see some signs that the players are going to be able to perform. So far, I've been very pleased with most of the Twins' returning players, particularly Carlos Gomez (.333/.400/.815, 3 HR, 5/3 K/BB in 27 AB), Delmon Young (.414/.452/.621, 3 2B, HR in 29 AB), Alexi Casilla (.387/.424/.484, 3 2B, 1/2 K/BB) and Jesse Crain (6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 6 K including the WBC). There are just a handful of guys on last year's roster who were beginning to worry me coming into today's game:

Joe Mauer - hasn't done anything on the field
Denard Span - 3 for 31 with no XBH
Joe Crede - 2 for 24 with no XBH
Nick Punto - 1 for 10 for the Twins and 1 for 12 with 2 BB in the WBC
Mike Redmond - 4 for 20 with 1 XBH
Matt Tolbert - 4 for 32 with no XBH

With the Crede signing likely relegating Brendan Harris to a bench IF role, and Mauer's balky back perhaps necessitating placing a 3rd catcher on the roster, Tolbert's spot is by no means guaranteed, so his struggles don't trouble me too much. However, that also means that Crede and Redmond had better be ready to do some hitting, or the Twins' lineup isn't going to be very deep.

So it was most encouraging to see Redmond, Crede and Span all drill XBH today, combining to go 6 for 8 with 2 R and 3 RBI. This was Redmond's second day in a row with a double, nearly matching his XBH total from all of 2008 (OK, he actually had 6 XBH in 2008, but you get the point). At this stage, it seems like the best case scenario that Mauer would get more frequent days off early in the season, so it's critical that Redmond delivers closer to his 2005-2007 performance, at least in April.

Span and Crede each managed to more than double their Grapefruit League total bases. Between them, they hit for the cycle (guess which one had the triple). Hopefully their numbers will continue to improve over the next week or so.

Philip Humber and Jason Jones both pitched well enough to keep themselves in the running for the last bullpen spot.

Losing Streak

Some thoughts on the last three games:

Pirates 6, Twins 4

Scott Baker was apparently having a lot of trouble locating his breaking stuff, and the Pirates' Bradenton stadium is apparently very friendly to hitters, but 4 HR? Next outing, work on throwing the fastball inside.

I realize he's done a lot of work since he last played to get in shape and prove he's still got it, but 3 HR by Craig Monroe? All off RHP? Nobody learned how to get him out last year? Pirates fans should be prepared for disappointment - Monroe had a pretty good spring for the Twins last year, but it didn't carry over into the regular season.

Reds 1, Twins 0

Francisco Liriano is having a very encouraging spring so far. I don't know how close he is to his pre-surgery form, but he certainly looks good enough to win a lot of games.

One of the things I was hoping to see Denard Span improve on in his second season was a reduction in strikeouts. He took a lot of called 3rd strikes last year, so learning to spoil some of those close pitches seems like an adjustment within his control. But I didn't see any of that in these games, though the strike zone was apparently overly generous in the early goings. I hope we can start seeing some successful ABs out of Span very soon.

Joe Crede is a fantastic glove at 3rd. Still waiting for the bat, though.

Marlins 9, Twins 5

Like most of the Twins starters, Kevin Slowey looks terrific. I'm really excited to see what they can do this year.

Carlos Gomez needed to do a lot to convince me that he's ready to be a productive MLB hitter. And so far, he's doing it. The best sign is his improved discipline. He led off the game with a walk on a 3-2 pitch, then created a run when his speed (going first to third on a groundout) drew a bad throw from Dallas MacPherson. How many times last year did he come up in the middle of a rally and fail to put the ball in play? Today he batted with the bases loaded and no out and hit an RBI groundout. And on his triple, he battled at 1-2 for a few pitches, took a breaking ball off the plate, then drove an outside pitch to the opposite field. If he can keep having those kinds of PAs, he's going to be a big contributor on both sides of the ball.

The first round of cuts is coming up, and if I had a vote, Jose Mijares would be the first name on the list. His putrid outing today, on top of all the walks he's issued previously, plus his terrible conditioning, shows that he's not ready to be a big-league regular. Perhaps he felt that his sterling September, combined with the Twins' disinterest in re-signing Dennys Reyes, meant that he was going to be handed a spot on the roster and that he could start living the good life. His unceremonious demotion would serve as an example to the rest of the Twins' prospects that nothing is given.

This gives me one last (hopefully) opportunity to harp on the short-sightedness of letting Reyes walk. Today's outing notwithstanding, R.A. Dickey has performed rather well this spring, as has Jason Jones. Philip Humber will get an extended look on Monday. With Joe Mauer's nagging back making it ever more likely that the Twins will need to take an extra catcher north, and the rotation showing that they're capable of pitching efficiently and eating some innings, a 6-man bullpen looks plausible. Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Craig Breslow and Luis Ayala will certainly take up 5 of those spots, with Dickey, Jones or Humber as the long reliever. That means there will be one lefty in the 'pen, which means that Breslow will almost certainly be used just as Reyes was - as a one-hitter matchup guy. He can do that, but he could have done more. I feel better about Breslow starting the 7th inning with a lead than I do Guerrier or Ayala. Rather than duplicate Guerrier by signing Ayala, the Twins could have brought back Reyes for essentially the same salary and given Gardy more flexibility, while demonstrating to young Mijares that he still had work to do to make the team. If he had pitched lights-out this spring, great! Take 3 lefties and have a balanced bullpen. Instead, the Twins will likely underuse one of their better relief assets, thereby giving more innings to weaker pitchers.

One of the reasons the Twins had been winning so many games this spring was the solid, and sometimes spectacular, play of their defense. That all went to pieces today, beginning in Mijares' brutal 7th inning. As badly as he was pitching, his outfielders didn't do him any favors, as Michael Cuddyer and Dustin Martin both let catchable balls get over their heads for 2-run doubles. In the 8th, R.A. Dickey was victimized by a missed cutoff and an unfielded bunt. And Brian Duensing suffered the capper in the 9th, as Gardy's boy threw away a DP, leading to 3 unearned runs.

I'm sure tomorrow will be better.

Back to the Games

It was great to get to listen to a game after more than a week of going without. Even if it was the Orioles broadcast, and they aired pre-taped interviews during the top of the 7th and 8th innings. And then started singing show tunes in the 9th when they couldn't pronounce our players' names correctly ("I feel Pridie..."). They're obviously bored already.

Despite tallying 17 H in the game, the Twins managed just 4 R, thanks to some especially poor hitting with RISP by Mike Redmond and Brendan Harris. Bad base running was also a problem, as the Twins ran themselves out of rallies in the 1st, when Michael Cuddyer got doubled off 2nd base, and the 4th, when Carlos Gomez got picked off after a leadoff single. Joe Crede got off the schnide, though, and Jason Kubel continues to swing a hot bat - save some of that for April!

Not a great day for Glen Perkins, although not many of the hits he gave up were hit hard. The biggest blow against him was a bloop single down the RF line by Greg Zaun that plated one run and sent another runner to 3rd where he was able to come home on a SF. Perkins seemed to tire in the 3rd, walking 2 to load the bases before escaping unscathed. Nick Blackburn had another efficient inning in his return to game action. And RA Dickey continues to make a strong case for a roster spot with another scoreless frame including 2 K.

The best news of the day, of course, came from back in Fort Myers, where Joe Mauer's MRA revealed no additional problems. The doctors will make an adjustment in the medication he's already been taking to relieve the inflammation in his lower back. Hopefully, that will give him an opportunity to get on the field in time to be ready for the season. We've only got 3 and a half weeks to go, and it's a much bigger step down from Mauer to Redmond than it was a couple of years ago.