Taking Shape

The front office has made a series of decisions over the last few days that have brought the Twins' opening day roster into greater focus:

Rotation

They announced that Scott Baker will be the 5th starter, joining Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing. Kevin Slowey will begin the season in the bullpen in a RH version of Duensing's role to begin last season. This is how it should be for the first couple months. Baker has more starter upside than Slowey. Slowey has more upside than Blackburn, but Nick has been a very effective back-end pitcher in 2 of 3 Major League seasons. At the very least, he's shown himself to be durable, which Slowey has not, so using a 'pen assignment to limit Slowey's mileage isn't a bad strategy.

While trade rumors involving Slowey will persist, the Twins would be wise to hold him until they're confident that Kyle Gibson is MLB-ready. In 2008, the rotation they broke camp with didn't hold together for a week. In 2009, they needed about a dozen different starters to get through the season. If they're patient, Slowey will get opportunities to start, and see whether the uptempo approach he began using late last season will translate into greater effectiveness and value in a starting role.

Bullpen

Slowey joins Joe Nathan, Matt Capps and Jose Mijares as locks to make the bullpen. The Twins elected to place Pat Neshek on waivers, from which he was claimed by San Diego. Though he was inexpensive and had an option remaining, they obviously felt that his stuff wasn't progressing enough in the 2nd season following his TJS to make him an effective option, even in their very unsettled bullpen. There was always some question as to whether or not the Twins would want to have Neshek and Anthony Slama in the same bullpen, since they bring similar skills to the table. If Neshek has anything left, he couldn't find a more hospitable environment in which to find it than the best pitcher's park in the weaker league. Good luck to him.

A slew of other cuts brings the candidates for the 3 remaining bullpen spots down to these 5 guys: LHPs Dusty Hughes, Glen Perkins and Scott Diamond and RHPs Jim Hoey and Jeff Manship. By all accounts, Hughes will make the team - the FO loves him and he's pitched effectively this spring. Perkins probably makes it, too - he's out of options and would have to suck pretty hard not to get a chance to stick around, and he's actually been rather good in Grapefruit League games. That's already 3 lefties, so Rule 5 pick Diamond probably misses out. I'm sure the Twins will try to swing a trade with Atlanta in order to keep him in the organization.

Between Hoey and Manship, I think Hoey gets the nod. He struggled early, but has looked solid in his last few appearances. His high-velocity fastball is a unique asset among the Twins' potential middle relievers. Manship is just another strike-thrower with fringy stuff. Like Slowey, but not as good. Slama is also technically still in camp, but his balky shoulder has taken him out of serious consideration. The Twins will probably start him on the DL, delaying any decisions about whether or not to use one of his options until the end of his rehab assignment.

Bench

Luke Hughes and Matt Tolbert are still battling it out for the final bench spot. Hughes picked a most inopportune time to go into an 0 for 16 slump, though he finally broke out of it this afternoon with yet another HR, his team-leading 6th. I hope the decision-makers will look at the power potential and see the strategic value it holds as a way to keep Jason Kubel and Jim Thome from having to face too many lefties. I would expect that decision to come by the end of the weekend.

Notes:

• Good thing Nathan isn't going to have to face the Phillies this season!
• Kubel has officially entered "Save something for the regular season already!" territory.
• In 25 years of following baseball, I have never seen such a fascist line as Liriano's from last night: 3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, HR, 3 BB, 9 K, 76 pitches. Though he wasn't terribly efficient in the first 2 innings, the only baserunners he allowed were on singles and a full count walk. But he was keeping his pitches down and locating pretty well. I think the loooong bottom of the 2nd threw him off. He came out for the 3rd and suddenly was up in the zone and wild. A good one to get out of the way in spring training.
• Forbes came out with its annual valuations of the MLB franchises this week. The opening of Target Field sent the Twins rocketing up 21% to #12 overall at $490M. While putting a consistent winner on the field, the franchise has experienced year-over-year growth in revenue and value in each of the last 10 years. I bet the Pohlads are glad contraction never went down!

Your 2008 Minnesota Twins

With 76 games in the books, it should be pretty clear to everyone what sort of team the 2008 Minnesota Twins are. Most regular players are between 250-300 PAs, most starters have made 10 or more starts, most relievers have appeared in 25 or more games, so the stats at this point are telling. Here are some of the the most illustrative team stats, along with their AL ranking:

BA: .272 (4th)
R: 365 (4th)
H: 716 (3rd)
2B: 135 (10th)
3B: 23 (1st)
HR: 46 (14th)
OBP: .327 (9th)
SLG: .394 (8th)
BB: 217 (12th)
K: 466 (6th)
SB: 48 (T-5th)
SF: 32 (1st)
Sac: 21 (T-3rd)
G/F: 1.34 (3rd)

Obviously, the Twins are a contact hitting team that doesn't over-swing (high BA, low HR & K), tries to use its team speed (high 3B, G/F and SB) and tries to do the little things (high SF, Sac). The offense is dependent upon timely hitting and running the bases - one individual rarely comes to the rescue via the HR. In order to build and sustain rallies, the Twins hitters have to put the ball in play.

Now, look at the pitching, ranking them so that good performance is 1st and bad is 14th:

BAA: .288 (14th)
ERA: 4.35 (10th)
R: 367 (12th)
H: 777 (14th)
BB: 187 (1st)
K: 426 (12th)
WHIP: 1.41 (10th)
HR: 86 (T-14th)
CS%: 30 (5th)
P/PA: 3.62 (1st)
OBP: .337 (10th)
SLG: .447 (14th)
QS: 40 (7th)

This is a pitching staff that throws the ball over the plate (low BB, P/PA) but doesn't have overpowering stuff (low K) and, consequently, often gets hit pretty hard (high HR, SLG, BAA, WHIP). It controls the running game pretty well, and is as likely to put together a QS as anyone. What this staff needs is a steady defense with tremendous range in order to run down all those balls in play.

How about it, D?

E: 53 (13th)
FPCT: .982 (12th)
Def Eff: .684 (13th)

Oops! That's not helpful. The Twins, so long known around the league for their pitching and defense, are bringing up the rear in those categories in '08.

Luckily, the rest of the division has major weaknesses as well. If the Twins want to stay in contention, they will need to make some changes. Their offensive formula is actually not a real problem (the 1st-place Angels are similar to the Twins in many categories, but have far better pitching and defense), so as they look to improve the defense, they might as well look for more of what they've got offensively - HR hitters will cost dearly and be in short supply anyway. On the pitching side, they need to cut down on hits and HRs while not adding walks. Here's how they should do it:

1. Remove Livan Hernandez from the rotation ASAP

Hernandez has, predictably, been the embodiment of everything that is wrong with the Twins' pitching staff. He has personally amassed 103.1 IP, 60 ER, 150 H, 16 BB, 34 K, 13 HR. Put another way, in 15% of the team's total IP, Livan has allowed better than 18% of the ER, 19% of the H, 8% of the BB, 8% of the K, and 15% of the HR. The walks are nice, so we'd want to replace him with someone whose BB/9 is also around 1.00.

That person, of course, should be Francisco Liriano. His current line at Rochester is 71.2 IP, 33 ER, 66 H, 24 BB, 59 K, 5 HR. But, if you throw out his first 3 starts in April, when he had no idea what he was doing, here's what's left: 58.1 IP, 25 ER, 54 H, 12 BB, 49 K. That's a 3.86 ERA, 1.13 WHIP. Good enough. I have no doubt that he'll perform exceedingly better than Livan. I think, at the worst, he'd probably perform like Glen Perkins, but with fewer walks. At best, he could be somewhere between Baker and Slowey. Either way, it can only help the team.

2. Reduce the pitching staff to 11 members by designating Brian Bass or Boof Bonser

Bonser has had a knack for giving up runs this year. To do the same comparison I did with Livan: 75 IP (11%), 54 ER (16%), 92 H (12%), 23 BB (12%), 53 K (12.5%), 9 HR (10.5%). While his H, BB, K and HR are more or less proportional to the rest of the team (which is to say, not good), he has given up far more than his share of runs. Since being moved to the bullpen, his K and G/F rates have improved, yet he's managed to allow one or more runs in 5 of 6 appearances.

Bass, on the other hand, appears to have lesser stuff, but has been mostly getting the job done. His line of 47.1 IP (7%), 26 ER (8%), 58 H (7.5%), 17 BB (9%), 21 K (5%), 9 HR (10.5%) suggests that he has, on the whole, been less effective than Bonser, except when it comes to giving up runs. But that's the bottom line, isn't it? He's also been much better recently: Since they were both annihilated in Detroit on May 24, Bass has gone 16 IP, 6 ER, 17 H, 3 BB, 7 K, 2 HR for a 3.38 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, while Boof has gone 13.2 IP, 12 ER, 24 H, 6 BB, 13 K, 1 HR for a 7.90 ERA and 2.19 WHIP.

With the rotation of Liriano, Perkins, Baker, Slowey and Blackburn all averaging about 6 IP/GS, there is clearly no need to have two mediocre long-relievers. Whether the Twins would find it more useful to stick with Boof, who has more talent, or Bass, who seems to use what he has better, is up to them. But they should bite the bullet and make that choice now, so that the offense can gain some options off the bench.

3. Down with Gomez, up with Span

I've only been lobbying for this since spring training, so it should come as no surprise. That magic "excitement" that Gomez supposedly brings to the game has been waning in June, almost to the point where I'm no longer aware of it. For example, Gomez has only 2 SB since May 11 in 8 attempts. He has also has just 9 XBH, 7 BB, and 40 K in those 40 games. Where's the chaos, the game-changing speed? He continues to rush himself in the outfield, bobbling grounders/transfers and over-throwing the cutoff man. He has provided the Twins with 11.45% of their ABs, but has only 9.8% of the XBH, 5.5% of the BB and 16.1% of the K. His line of .269/.302/.379 is below the team average.

Wasn't he supposed to be a 5-tool player? Mostly, we've just seen 2: speed and defense. The arm is too inaccurate to rate highly, the power has been minimal and the hitting mostly quite bad. When he comes up in the middle of a big rally, he's usually the one that makes an unproductive out. Without him stealing bases at a ferocious rate, I'm afraid the rest of his weaknesses get the better of him. He could benefit from 1-1.5 years in AAA, just as Baker, Slowey, Casilla and Span have.

In Denard Span, the Twins have someone who has accumulated more than twice the BB and fewer than half the K of Gomez in about half the PAs at Rochester. His SB efficiency, thanks to a recent slump, is about on par with Gomez'. He has shown he can drive the ball, hitting about 28% of his H for XB and tying his career high for HR in just 100 AB. I haven't seen any reports that his range would be a large net loss from that of Gomez, and his accuracy would make up for his less-powerful arm. Basically, I think he can make most of the plays Gomez makes and match or exceed his XBH and SB contributions while walking vastly more often and striking out vastly less. Span is much more likely to keep a big inning going than Gomez.

4. Upgrade the SS position

Brendan Harris has recently gone on a hot streak that has justified his existence at last after about 6 weeks of futility. We knew going in that he was a subpar fielder, but he hasn't been hitting either. He hit .277/.330/.361 in April (his good month!), .217/.320/.289 in May, and his recent spurt of 8 H in 5 G has raised his June numbers to .243/.270/.343. In his 240 AB (9.13%), he's drawn 20 BB (9.2%) against 58 K (12.45%), including 2/18 this month. He is 1/2 in SB attempts. And we all know that his range at 2B and SS is a joke.

By taking him out of the lineup, the Twins can hopefully acquire a SS who will put the ball in play more often while getting to far more balls in the field. The option that occurred to me as I watched the games last week: Christian Guzman. He's in the final year of his contract, so the Nationals should be looking to move him. He's only making $4.2M, so it won't bust the bank. We know he likes to play the Twins' brand of baseball, and he's been playing it very well for the past two seasons. He's currently in the top 10 in the NL in BA, and he's 7th among MLB SS in ZR. Offer the Nats Brendan Harris plus something decent from the minors (Brian Duensing?) and get the negotiations started. Bring Guzie back!

5. Get rid of Craig Monroe

His 6 HR have come in fairly spectacular moments, but Monroe has been an overall disappointment. He was supposed to be the right-handed power the Twins could bring in against lefties, but in 53 ABs vs. LHP, he's hitting .113/.190/.170 with 1 HR, 5 BB and 13 K. I don't know if it would be worth it to keep him around long enough to even out his splits (he's currently .286/.333/.600 vs. RHP with 5 HR, 5 BB and 25 K). You can see from his high K rate vs. either kind of pitcher, he's probably going to be the one who kills the rally. Looking at his overall numbers as a percentage of the total team ABs: 123 ABs (4.68%), 6 HR (13%), 10 BB (4.6%), 38 K (8.15%). The Twins may miss out on those all-in moments like his game-tying jack in KC, but they'll more than make up for it by filling his spot on the bench with some who can more consistently put the ball in play.

6. Trade the Leftovers

The available trade pieces on the 25-man roster are:

Livan Hernandez
Boof Bonser or Brian Bass
Mike Lamb
Brendan Harris
Adam Everett
Craig Monroe

Interesting that these were the guys brought in during the off-season...

From Rochester:

Anybody but Jose Morales and Trevor Plouffe, really.

Make those trades! Pick up Guzman. Go get a right-handed hitting 3B with plus range if you can. Add a veteran bench player. If there's a starter available who has better potential than the young guys, go for it. There are plenty of possibilities.

My revised lineup (Span, Casilla, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Young, Buscher, Guzman) should have a little bit better range up-the-middle while putting together more positive ABs and striking out less. By dropping Monroe, Gomez and Harris, the Twins subtract 171 K (36.7% of the team total!) and replace them with Guzman (23 K in 333 ABs), Span (29/35 BB/K ratio in 165 ABs between AAA/ML) and Jason Kubel (17/22 BB/K since the embarassing month of April). Given their current K rates, this trio would have about 87 K in the same ABs as the group they're replacing - about half as many. Substituting those numbers, the Twins would currently rank #1 in the AL in fewest K, while also moving up the list in BA, OBP and fielding.

The pitching staff (Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Perkins and Blackburn in the rotation, Nathan, Guerrier, Reyes, Crain, Breslow and Bass/Bonser in the 'pen) should give up fewer hits while striking out more. When you take out Hernandez and Bonser, the already departed Juan Rincon, and the not-ready mess of Liriano's 3 appearances in April, the remaining staff has this line: 466 IP, 487 H, 184 ER, 59 HR, 119 BB, 312 K, 3.55 ERA, 1.30 WHIP. I expect Liriano's numbers to be in the neighborhood of Slowey and Baker, but with fewer HR, so he should be a positive contributor to the K/BB rate and WHIP. Who knows what his ERA would be. It appears that this pitching staff is capable of ranking in the top 5 or 6 in the AL in ERA and WHIP.

The Twins can compete for the division title this year while playing their brand of baseball. They just have to finish filling the roster with guys who actually play that brand of baseball well.

2008 Twins Pre-Season Bullpen

Closer - Joe Nathan
Nathan has been, arguably, the best closer in baseball since he took up that role for the Twins in 2004. Over the past 4 seasons, he's averaged 40 saves and a 92% conversion rate, with an ERA under 2.00 and K/9 over 10.00. After having his best season in 2006 (12.51 K/9!), the numbers dipped in 2007, particularly the strikeouts (9.67 K/9). The first sign of decline, or just an off year? The Twins, having just signed Nathan through 2011, are banking on the latter. Through 11 spring innings, the K/9 was up to 10.64. Whatever the K/9, I'd rather have him than Joe Borowski or Todd Jones.
Best case: a repeat of 2006
Worst case: he gets hurt
SfC projection: 70 IP, 2.10 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 40 SV

Setup - Pat Neshek
When the bullpen imploded last May due to injuries and/or ineffectiveness, Neshek became Gardy's most trusted middle reliever. He was called into just about every sticky situation the Twins found themselves in, and was so effective that he nearly made the All-Star team. He declined steeply after July, probably due to overuse (he accumulated 74 IP despite being shut down with a couple weeks left in the season). This season, he's come back in better shape, and the hope is to use him more judiciously anyway. He could hardly have had a better spring (11 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 9 K), so his prospects for this season look excellent.
Best case: the first half of 2007 lasts all year
Worst case: he gets hurt
SfC projection: 75 IP, 2.00 ERA, 0.90 WHIP

RHP - Matt Guerrier
I credit Guerrier with keeping the Twins in the race as long as they were last year. Merely the long-relief guy in his first couple years on the team, he had to step into the Jesse Crain/Juan Rincon roll last year, and responded by having his best season. He gave the Twins 88 IP, 2.35 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and drastically improved his BB/9 and K/9. Most of the great numbers happened in the first half - the second half was closer to his career averages so far. With Crain returning from surgery, and Rincon hoping to recover his old form, the Twins might like to move Guerrier back to long relief. But until those guys prove their effectiveness, I wouldn't be surprised to see Guerrier used as the primary 7th inning guy next month.
Best case: 2007
Worst case: It's an off year
SfC projection: 85 IP, 3.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

LHP - Dennys Reyes
After putting up ERAs in the mid-4.00s and WHIPs in the 1.60 range for most of his career, Reyes came out of nowhere in 2006 to lead the Twins' bullpen with a 0.89 ERA. That number was shaped a great deal by how he was used, but he was undeniably effective, striking out about a batter per inning and issuing the fewest walks per IP of his career. He came crashing back to reality in 2007, though he was hampered by an injury in the early part of the season. This spring, I've mainly been concerned with his control - he's got to get ahead to be effective. In 10 spring IP, though he's given up 12 hits, he's only walked one batter, and so he's been able to escape his jams and put up a very encouraging 1.80 ERA. Considering he'll be used almost entirely against left-handed batters, his chances for success are pretty good.
Best case: 2006 Reyes
Worst case: Pre-Twins Reyes
SfC projection: 50 IP, 3.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

RHP - Juan Rincon
Rincon has been with the Twins throughout their successful run this decade. He peaked in 2004, when he appeared in 77 games and threw 82 IP, with a 2.63 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 106 K and only 32 BB. He had been steadily declining until last season, when he declined precipitously. He put up career worsts in IP, ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9 and, perhaps most alarming, HR. The 9 bombs he served up in 2007 equalled the combined total of 2004-2006. And yet, he was offered a contract and is back for one more season. He was embarassed by his performance last year, and will be a free agent after the season, so he's got every incentive to show what kind of pitcher he really is.
Best case: Back to the good old days
Worst case: The decline (gulp) continues
SfC projection: 75 IP, 3.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

RHP - Jesse Crain
Crain had been one of the Twins' most effective relievers, even generating some discussion of being a future closer, until he broke down last season with a serious shoulder injury. His labrum and rotator cuff have been repaired, but it's difficult for any pitcher to get back to form after damaging those areas. Though Crain is in as good a condition as anyone in his situation could possibly be, it's still very uncertain as to how he will perform this year. Like Liriano, they'll have to take things slowly, and hope for the best. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in lower pressure situations this year.
Best case: good as new
Worst case: never the same
SfC prediction: 50 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

RHP - Brian Bass
Bass found his way onto the roster this spring because the Twins wanted 12 pitchers, he pitched well last year in Rochester and had a great spring, and he's out of options and the Twins didn't want to lose him. He'll be in the Matt Guerrier role from recent years, long relief.
Best case: Guerrier from 2005-2006
Worst case: back to the Minors (and therefore off the team)
SfC projection: 70 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

The Twins' motto this year could be: "Get Back to 2006!" and it seems especially true of the bullpen. Nathan and Neshek are going to be as dominant an 8th & 9th inning door-slamming duo as any in baseball. If Rincon, Crain, and Reyes can find their way even halfway back to their 2006 numbers, the Twins will have easily the best bullpen in the AL Central, and one of the best in the Majors. With a young, unproven starting rotation, they'll need it to be that good.

2008 Twins Pre-Season Bench

Catcher - Mike Redmond
Redmond has been the best backup backstop in baseball since he joined the Twins in 2005. He's hit .312/.355/.381 during that span, and has thrown out 41% of base stealers while helping to lead solid pitching staffs. He doesn't have much pop off the bench, but he uses the whole field. He'll be 37 in May, so it's uncertain how many good games he has left, but a healthy Joe Mauer should keep his playing time down to around 45 games.
Best case: a repeat of 2006
Worst case: a repeat of 2003
SfC prediction: .290/.340/.360, 1 HR, 20 RBI, 15 R

Outfield - Craig Monroe
Despite his 28 HR in 2006, Monroe has been going the wrong way as a hitter for a few seasons. His walk totals have been waning as his strikeout totals climb, and his OBP shows the corresponding decline. He's been particularly struggling vs. right-handed pitchers, against whom he suffers most of his strikeouts and has a far lower SLG%. After a poor start to 2007, he left the Tigers, and was even worse with the Cubs. I don't think he'll be that bad in 2008, and his solid spring reinforces that hope. He has an opportunity to be particularly effective if he's used almost exclusively against lefties. We'll see if that's the way Gardy plays it.
Best case: Monroe in 2006
Worst case: Monroe in 2007
SfC projection: .260/.310/.490, 12 HR, 40 RBI, 25 R

Infield - Nick Punto
Punto won a starting job in the infield after putting up a .290/.352/.373 line in 2006. He gave it right back by going .210/.291/.271 in 2007, and hitting even worse this spring. He's a much better fielder than either Lamb or Harris, and he's always been a high-percentage base stealer, so he'll have a reasonably high value to the team as a late-inning defensive replacement or pinch runner. The key will be to minimize his ABs, although I suspect he'll revert back to something close to his career averages this year.
Best case: Punto of 2006
Worst case: Punto of 2007
SfC projection: .240/.310/.315, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 30 R

Infield - Matt Tolbert
Tolbert was hitting about .350 for Rochester in the first half of last season before cooling off to finish the year at .293. Like Punto, he's a solid glove at 2B, SS and 3B and a high percentage base-stealer. Unlike Punto, he has enough hitting talent to put up a .750 OPS. He'll allow the Twins to take both Harris and Lamb out of games late, and he'll get the occasional start. He's probably going to be Punto's replacement long-term.
Best case: Merits lots of playing time
Worst case: Blows it and gets sent back to Rochester
SfC projection: .275/.340/.380, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 20 R

Hopefully, at some point, the Twins will feel comfortable enough with their young rotation to add a 5th bench player who's more of a hitting threat. Until then, from an offensive standpoint, the Twins will be relying heavily on their starters.

2008 Twins Pre-Season Rotation

1. Livan Hernandez
Hernandez was signed after the Santana trade to give the coaching staff some confidence that the bullpen wouldn't have to throw 4+ innings a night in relief of an unproven young rotation. Innings are the one constant in his career - he's failed to reach 200 innings just once since he became a full-time starter in 1998, and that was when he threw 199.2 innings in 1999. This might be the year he misses the benchmark for the second time. I find it difficult to imagine him pitching consistently well enough to merit staying in the game 6 innings every night for 33 starts. His only effective starts this spring have been against lineups thick with bench players and minor-leaguers, and now he takes his 4.25 career ERA into the AL.
Best case: He gets off to a good start and the Twins trade him in June while his value is high
Worst case: He actually makes 33 starts for the Twins
SfC projection: 8-17, 185 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 70 BB, 90 K

2. Boof Bonser
Bonser disappointed in 2007 after posting promising numbers in 2006 and the minors. Just about every start, it seemed like he'd be really good for 4-5 innings, then hit the wall. The coaches impressed upon him to improve his conditioning, and he showed up to camp 20+ pounds lighter. His results in spring training have been encouraging. He still hasn't made 50 starts or thrown 300 innings in the majors, so it's not unreasonable to assume some growing pains for a young pitcher. If his new stamina translates into more strikeouts, and he maintains the solid control he's shown since the low levels of the minors, this could be the year he finally puts it all together.
Best case: Boof from late 2006
Worst case: Boof from 2007
SfC projection: 12-10, 190 IP, 4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 50 BB, 170 K

3. Nick Blackburn
Blackburn had been progressing through the Twins' system at a modest rate, generally needing to repeat each level for at least a portion of a season before making the necessary adjustments and moving on. But something clicked in 2007, as he baffled the IL hitters with a long scoreless innings streak and earned a September call-up with Twins. He continued to dominate in the AFL, and put together a sparkling spring training to earn his spot on the roster. He's got just 11.2 major league innings so far, and the last 2 were pretty awful - he was blown to bits by the Tigers and Red Sox in the last week of the season. I suspect he'll have a few more growing pains in the early goings this year, just as Baker, Bonser and Slowey did in their initial stints with the Twins.
Best case: he holds his own and keeps his spot all season
Worst case: he struggles and is sent down to make room for Liriano
SfC projection: 4-5, 80 IP, 4.75 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 20 BB, 40 K

4. Kevin Slowey
Slowey is my pick to click in 2008. He was the best pitcher in AAA last season, putting up a 1.89 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 133.2 innings. He struggled when the Twins called him up in June, but was very effective when he was brought back in September. After a rocky first 2 outings this spring, he's been solid the rest of the way. Particularly intriguing is the increase in strikeouts, up to more than one per inning in Grapefruit League play. His control is impeccable, he pitches to the corners, changes speeds - already a fairly mature pitcher. When this season is over, he'll be the one who had the most impressive campaign.
Best case: Greg Maddux
Worst case: Brad Radke
SfC projection: 16-10, 210 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 30 BB, 190 K

5. Scott Baker
Baker soared through the system, making his big-league debut in 2005, just two years after he was drafted. He ping-ponged between the Twins and Red Wings for the next two years, dominating AAA but never quite putting it together for Gardy. That seemed to change as the summer wore on last year, culminating in his near perfect game at the end of August. Like Bonser, he doesn't yet have 50 starts or 300 IP at the Major-league level, and once he puts this spring's physical setbacks behind him, I expect him to nearly match Slowey as the steady hand in the rotation.
Best case: Baker from the 2nd half of 2007
Worst case: Baker from the 1st half of 2006
SfC projection: 17-10, 220 IP, 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 50 BB, 180 K

I'm expecting these 5 guys to give the Twins 57 wins and 885 IP. But with Liriano, Perkins, Humber and Mulvey getting their work in at AAA, I don't expect the rotation to look very much like this in September.

2008 Twins Pre-Season Lineup

The last cuts have been made, the roster is set, and the regular season is about to begin. Here is the team the Twins decided to bring north:

1. CF - Carlos Gomez
It's going to be a bit of a bumpy ride with Gomez in 2008. In 1,291 minor-league ABs, he's hit .278/.339/.399 with 18 HRs and 141 SBs. But he's also struck out 250 times while working just 82 walks, and that's a big concern for the Twins this year. Based on the swings he's been taking this spring, I think it's going to be a struggle for him to crack .300 OBP, which would not be a good thing for a leadoff guy. Add to that his wildness throwing from the OF, and the only tool the Twins can really count on next month is his other-worldly speed. He's going to need to make more contact, take more pitches, and consistently hit the cutoff man if he wants to stick in the Majors.
Best case: Curtis Granderson
Worst case: Corey Patterson
SfC Projection: .260/.290/.410, 10 HRs, 50 RBIs, 85 R, 60 SBs, 130 Ks. But I think he'll be sent down by the end of May.

2. C - Joe Mauer
Mauer didn't have his legs under him last year. A stress reaction in March, a hammy in May, a quad in August. His numbers dipped substantially from his batting title in 2006. Still, .293/.382/.426 isn't too bad for an off year. I remember a number of ABs last year where he drove fly balls to the warning track in left - they only have to go 5% further to become homers. If his legs are feeling 5% better, I think we're finally going to see the power we always thought Mauer could display.
Best case: He's back challenging for the batting title and the AL MVP.
Worst case: He gets hurt again
SfC projection: .335/.425/.500, 18 HR, 80 RBI, 100 R

3. RF - Michael Cuddyer
Cuddyer was also derailed somewhat by injury last season, hurting his back when he lost his footing on the base paths in July. He was remarkably consistent in terms of average, OBP and SLG% before and after the All-Star break. He's had 2,097 MLB ABs, which many would say is enough to establish his .270/.346/.450 career line as about as good as he'll do this year. I think that line is weighted pretty strongly by his first 993 ABs, spread over 5 seasons when he was adjusting to the majors. His line over that stretch was .260/.332/.428, with a HR every 31 ABs. In the 1,104 ABs he had in '06-'07, his line was .280/.362/.469, with a HR every 27 ABs. I'm expecting something more along those lines for 2008.
Best case: His numbers fall in line with his career minor league averages (.290/.379/.485)
Worst case: His MLB career average really is his ceiling
SfC projection: .285/.370/.475, 22 HR, 90 RBI, 95 R

4. 1B - Justin Morneau
This winter, Morneau signed the longest, richest contract in Twins history. Not bad for a guy who hasn't put together a complete season in the big leagues yet. He's got just about the same number of career ABs as Cuddyer (2058), and it wasn't too long after the 1000 AB threshold that he began his tear in 2006. His power numbers tailed off drastically after July in each of the last two years. If he can sustain the numbers he's put up in the first four months through August and September, he should wind up with 40+ HRs. He's determined to make that happen this year. I hope he can stay out of his own way, mentally speaking.
Best case: Harmon Killebrew in 1969
Worst case: Justin Morneau in 2007
SfC projection: .295/.365/.565, 42 HR, 120 RBI, 90 R

5. LF - Delmon Young
At 22, Young is, well, young for the Major Leagues, yet he'll reach that 1000 AB threshold by June. Last year he swung at everything, especially the first pitch. He's been much more patient this spring, even though he's still not drawing many walks. As he gets more comfortable with deep counts, he'll find himself with more opportunities to focus his considerable hitting abilities on pitches in the zone. I've been impressed by his ability to drive in runs this spring, whether by hits or fly balls. 2008 should be another step on his path to stardom. His arm in left field will prevent a lot of extra bases on the defensive side of things.
Best case: He starts putting up his minor league numbers (.317/.363/.517)
Worst case: He repeats last year (.288/.316/.408)
SfC projection: .310/.345/.475, 18 HR, 100 RBI, 85 R

6. DH - Jason Kubel
Ever since Kubel lost 2005 to an ACL tear in the AFL, we've been waiting for him to recover his spectacular minor league form (.320/.385/.499). Late last season, it appeared that finally happened: Kubel hit .303/.379/.511 in 170 ABs after the All-Star break. If that continues into this season, the Twins' DH woes could finally be over. Kubel won't turn 26 until May, and he's only had about 700 MLB ABs, so there's reason (once again) to be optimistic.
Best case: His minor league numbers
Worst case: Another 2007
SfC projection: .310/.380/.500, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 75 R

7. 3B - Mike Lamb
Lamb will get a chance to be an every-day player for the first time since his rookie year of 2000, when he got about 500 ABs with the Rangers. Since then, he's been a platoon guy, never reaching even 400 ABs. With the exception of 2005, he's always done a good job offensively. Defensively, he's average at best. He's having a terrific spring, which will hopefully carry over into April. I think we can expect to see Punto or Tolbert come in for defensive purposes in games the Twins are leading after 6-7 innings.
Best case: Corey Koskie
Worst case: Tony Batista
SfC projection: .285/.345/.450, 15 HR, 80 RBI, 70 R

8. 2B - Brendan Harris
Harris finally had a full season in the Majors last year after a number of limited stints from 2004-2006. He was able to come reasonably close (.286/.343/.434) to his career minor league numbers (.294/.365.458). He had a horribly slow start to the spring, both offensively and defensively, but he's been warming on both sides of the ball as late. Like Young, Harris will hit the 1000 AB threshold some time this summer, so there's reason to hope that he'll find his comfort zone and rise to his minor league averages. Though his defense has improved recently, I think it's likely that Punto or Tolbert will replace him in the late innings of every game the Twins are leading.
Best case: His minor league numbers
Worst case: His spring training numbers
SfC projection: .290/.350/.450, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 65 R

9. SS - Adam Everett
Everett was signed to hold down the shortstop position for one season. He's not much of a hitter, barely cracking a .700 OPS in his best offensive season in the Majors. His 2145 career ABs put him in the same league as Morneau and Cuddyer, but unlike those two, Everett hasn't shown any improvement in the last couple of years. At his age, I think we know what we're getting at the plate. However, he's a peerless defender, at the top of the league in range and fielding percentage over the course of his career. Just what a young pitching staff needs.
Best case: Punto in 2006
Worst case: Punto in 2007
SfC projection: .245/.295/.350, 2 HR, 45 RBI, 50 R

I'm projecting this lineup to produce 715 runs, already about equal to the anemic team total from 2007. If the bench guys kick in another 75, that will comfortably lift the team into the major league average. Hopefully that will be enough for a staff of promising young pitchers.

An Eventful Day

I'll go through the news in the order it happened:

Roster Cuts
The Twins announced 5 cuts before the game today, settling all but one spot on the 25-man roster.

Casey Daigle - needed a flawless spring to make the club, but was merely solid. No surprise.

Philip Humber - pitched extremely well this spring. In 14 IP, he gave up just 2 ER on 9 H and 3 BB. Now he'll stretch out at Rochester. He was the PCL leader in WHIP last season - if he keeps it up in the IL, we'll see him again this summer.

Jason Pridie - held his own in the CF competition, but displayed neither the OBP of Span nor the SLG% of Gomez. He'll likely see a ton of playing time in one of the corner OF spots for the Red Wings, and will be a candidate for an OF bench spot next year.

Brian Buscher - great first week of spring, then the hits dried up. He showed great improvement defensively, and will likely work on both corner IF positions in AAA.

Denard Span - the odd man out, despite finishing the spring with an SfC adjusted hitting line of .310/.420/.429. I didn't observe or hear of him making any mistakes in the field or on the bases. If he keeps it up at Rochester, I think he'll make his major league debut before too long.

This makes the winners of the various competitions:

2B - Brendan Harris - he's starting to warm up on both sides of the ball. Though I'm still glad Punto/Tolbert will be around for defensive replacement in the late innings.

12th pitcher - Brian Bass - despite his outing today (more on that below), he's had a fine spring, and will be lost to the organization if he doesn't make the roster. All indications are that he'll be a fine long-reliever.

Bench - Matt Tolbert - better/more versatile defensively than Buscher, better speed as a pinch-runner, also hit better this spring.

CF - Carlos Gomez - won the job with his speed, the only piece of his game which is major-league ready. While he will undoubtedly use it to create some runs, he will also give a lot of them back with his mistakes. I doubt he'll stick for long.

Nick Blackburn will be the last man cut this weekend, depending on how Liriano and Baker do in their starts this week. I doubt Blackburn will have to wait very long for his chance with the Twins.

Joe Nathan's Contract
In the third inning of today's broadcast, the Twins announced that they'd agreed to terms with Joe Nathan on a 4-year deal, with a club option for the 5th year. The exact terms haven't been published as of this moment, but it appears to be in line with Cordero's $46 million deal earlier this off-season.

I'm very pleased about this. After the Santana trade, I felt that it was imperative to lock up Joe Nathan, not because Neshek isn't capable of doing as good a job (he is), but because, after this tumultuous off-season, the Twins needed to show the fans that they are willing and able to pay market rates for their All-Star talent. Nathan will likely begin to decline by the end of the contract, but, at this point, it ensures that the Twins will have one of the top 3 closers in the game through 2011.

Neshek is under the Twins' control for all that time as well, meaning that, provided they both stay healthy and continue to produce at the rate they've established over the past 2 seasons, the Twins are effectively playing 7-inning ball games for the next 4 years. That's a huge boost to a young lineup and rotation.

Cardinals 8, Twins 4
Brian Bass got the start today, though he pitched from the stretch the whole time. He is going to be in the bullpen, so I think the Twins just wanted to see how far they could stretch him out. Answer: 3 innings. He was already beginning to falter in the 3rd, when he allowed a hit and a walk, but escaped unscathed. They sent him out for the 4th, and he promptly hit the wall - walk, double, walk, and his afternoon was over. I doubt he'll frequently be called upon to go more than 3 innings as the long reliever, and he was as good as he's been all spring in the first 2 innings, so I don't think this should shake anyone's confidence in him.

Dennys Reyes was called upon to get the Twins out of the 4th inning jam that Bass created. He got a broken-bat liner to Harris, who was able to double Ankiel off 2nd base. 2 outs, runners at the corners. It was difficult to visualize the next two plays, but as Dan described them, they were weak infield choppers. The first went over second base, where Tolbert allowed himself to be called off by Harris (who was running full-speed toward left field). Harris' throw to first was just late, and a run scored. I have a feeling Everett would have made that play. The next batter hit his ball over third base, and I guess Lamb fielded it while running into foul territory, and tried to touch the base as he went by, and the ump ruled that he hadn't. Anyway, that loaded the bases, and the next guy hit a clean single to center to score two. In summary, the box score lies again - Reyes pitched well, and with slightly better luck/defense could have escaped that jam unscathed.

Carlos Gomez was credited with a bunt single in his first AB, though Dan & John Gordon were once again incredulous that it was not ruled an error (the pitcher's throw pulled the first baseman off the bag). Gomez was quickly caught stealing for the first time this spring. He lined out to center in next AB, then finished the game with three strikeouts, the last on 3 pitches. Oh, and his "outfield assist" was another off-line throw that Morneau had to cut off, catching a different base runner in a rundown. This is why I would have waited to make the roster decisions until after today's game. Span's 0-4 yesterday was much more impressive than the 0-4 Gomez produced in his last ABs today.

Delmon Young had a pretty rough day at the plate with 2 Ks, but delivered with the bases loaded in the 9th for a 2-RBI single. He also made a nice running catch in the gap.

Lamb and Cuddyer continue to play great. Keep it up, guys.

Nice preview of the New Britain Rock Cats in the second half of the game today. Say what you like about the Cardinals' chances in this rebuilding year, they're definitely better than the Twins' AA team.

Luxuries

While perusing the odds and ends on Aaron Gleeman's blog today, I came upon this comment:

"Keeping Nathan in Minnesota is a luxury that the Twins can't afford if it requires something like $50 million over four seasons, and they'd be better off cashing him in for prospects at the trading deadline or taking compensatory draft picks when he walks as a free agent."

Aaron is not the first person to say something like this during the off-season, but it's beginning to grate on me a bit. I will admit that:

1. Paying a relief pitcher $12 million/year is a luxury, and that
2. It is risky to give Nathan a contract that would pay him 8 figures until he's 37, and even that
3. The Twins have in-house candidates (such as Neshek) who could fill the closer role for much less.

I considered all of these things back in the fall, and concluded that this summer would be the perfect time to trade Nathan (or that it would be fine to let him walk during the off-season), provided that:

The Twins would find a way to keep Hunter or Santana.

Those two are all-stars, fan favorites, and, had they remained in MN for another 4-5 seasons, would have been locks to have their numbers retired. Knowing that Santana had trade value, my preference back in October was to have the Twins re-sign Hunter. When the Angels signed him on Thanksgiving, my thoughts were:

"Rats. Wow, that's way too much money. I guess we have to give Santana an extension now."

The Twins said they were going to spend between $77-$80 million on payroll this season, and when Hunter moved on, that suddenly became difficult to do. Trading Santana on top of that makes it all but impossible to reach the available payroll. This fact is a problem for the franchise, because:

1. While they say they couldn't afford to pay Santana and Hunter what they were asking, the money they're leaving unspent says otherwise, and
2. The ownership already has a reputation for being miserly, and
3. The taxpayers of MN are providing considerable money to a new stadium, which is supposed to make it possible to keep star players in town, and
4. All-Star players are the main reason attendance has been dramatically improving in recent seasons.

Not everyone believes #4, but they should. Despite earning 3 straight division titles in 2002-2004, the Twins weren't able to crack the 2 million mark in attendance until 2005 (when they were barely over .500). Why? One of their players won the Cy Young in 2004. The Twins drew more fans in 2007 (with a losing record) than in 2006. Why? They had the reigning Cy Young, MVP, and Batting Champ. It wasn't just because they won 96 games in a storybook season. In 2002, they won 94 games the year after surviving the threatened contraction (just as good a story). But only 20,000 more fans showed up the following season because, well, who were those guys?

Look at Oakland: they had 8 straight seasons with at least 87 wins, and made 5 post-season appearances, yet their attendance has been in decline over the past 5 seasons. Why? Because they've lost their MVPs and Cy Youngs to trades and free agency, and the fans won't pay to see an anonymous team, even if they win. Fans take pride in their team - it makes them feel special to have one of their own earning League honors. The Twins now run the risk of falling into decline as Oakland has, and that would make it even more difficult for them to retain the talent that remains on the team.

The Twins made an important symbolic move by signing Cuddyer and Morneau to long-term deals just before TwinsFest. Though those guys are, for their careers so far, only slightly above average for their positions, the fans know them, and believe in their abilities, and it's comforting to know that they'll be around for the next 3 or more seasons given all the other changes we've seen this off-season. Mauer belongs in that core group as well, and he is also securely locked up through 2010. The only other proven all-star remaining on the team is Joe Nathan.

If you look at some Fantasy Baseball Rankings, you'll find that Nathan is considered one of the elite performers at his position in the game right now. Twins fans know how good he is. They will be demoralized if yet another of the star players they take pride in is given up as unaffordable, even though there appears to be ample money available to pay him his market value.

The Twins should always attempt to put the best possible product on the field that their resources will allow. That means building a winner. But it's just as important to keep as many of their home-grown stars around as can fit into the payroll. And, now that Santana, and Hunter are off the books, Joe Nathan can fit into the payroll for the next few years.

Jim Crikket followed up one of my comments to Gleeman with this:

"A little creative contract work is what's called for. There's room in the payroll budget this year so a nice immediate bonus with more moderate annual salaries over the next 3-4 years would seem to make sense."
(Who is Jim Crikket? Every comment I've seen from him is concise and insightful. Where's his blog?)

That's exactly what they should try to do. Match the Cordero contract (4 years, $46 million) by offering Nathan a 3 year, $40 million extension, structured at $12 million/year + a $4 million signing bonus.

I have a spreadsheet on my laptop that totals the Twins' payroll commitments over the coming seasons, and I plugged Nathan in at $12 million per season through 2011. Assuming the Twins stick with the talent already in the organization, I've got the 2010 payroll at about $75 million. That's less than they said they could afford this season in the year the new stadium opens. My 2011 payroll is a little under $100 million (which will probably be more or less league average by then), and that's anticipating 8-figure salaries for Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, and Liriano. I don't feel at this moment that it would be necessary to pick up Cuddyer's option for that season if there were more pressing payroll considerations. Who knows if Kubel will perform consistently enough to be worth it? Who knows if Liriano will prove durable enough to be worth it? But even if they're all worth it, it looks to me like the Twins could afford them, and Nathan too.

Let's look at it another way: what's a reasonable proportion of available payroll budget to spend on the pitching staff? 50%? I'll be conservative and say 40%. With Livan Hernandez, Juan Rincon, and Dennys Reyes all likely ending their time with the Twins after 2008, and a multitude of outstanding pitching rising throughout the minor-league system, the Twins project to have 50-75% of their rotation in serfdom or early arbitration for the next 4 seasons. Including $12 million/year for Joe Nathan, the total cost of the pitching staff should add up to no more than:

2008: $27 million
2009: $21 million
2010: $25 million
2011: $38 million

This assumes that average pitchers (like Silva and Lohse) will be dropped for a younger model before they become too pricey. Now here's the percentage of available payroll those totals represent:

2008: 35%
2009: 25%
2010: 28%
2011: 38%

This assumes that payroll will continue to increase by $6 million each season, a little less than the average amount the Twins payroll has increased over the last several seasons.

We just gave Joe Nathan $12 million/year for 4 years, and there's still going to be well over 60% of the budget available for the 13-14 position players on the team.

So, somebody explain to me, please, why is signing him not a luxury the Twins can afford?

If I Were Bill Smith...

The past few days, I've laid out a lot of options for how the Twins could proceed over the next few years. I want to see the team strike the right balance between on-field success (winning) and off-field success (making money). While winning consistently is a good way to sell tickets, it's no guarantee of sellouts, as the Twins and A's showed throughout the first half of the decade. If you don't sell out, eventually you have to dump your star players. It seems to me that dumping your star players is the reason you don't sell out. It's the combination of wins and stars that gives you the attendance records and the payroll increases every year.

For that reason, I would have offered Hunter 5 years. I think he'll still be a contributor at 37, and he would have continued to be appreciated by the fans as the face of the franchise, they would have taken pride in his remaining a Twin. I wouldn't have offered him $18 million/year, of course (good luck with that, Angels). $10-12 million in the last two years of the deal would have been OK, though. His performance on the field wouldn't have been worth it, but his value to the franchise would have made up for it.

Minnesota sports fans have seen Randy Moss and Kevin Garnett leave in recent years in underwhelming trades. This year, the Vikes had trouble selling out some early season games (hopefully they're over that hump now), and the T-Wolves' attendance is in decline. Not only weren't they winning, but who are the players? Who are we cheering for? To lose Santana now for anything less than All-Star caliber players would surely send the Twins' steadily growing attendance the other way.

With that in mind, here's where the Twins stand as of tonight (salaries in millions):

CF - Tyner (about $1)
3B - Harris (about $0.4)
C - Mauer ($6.25)
LF - Cuddyer (about $6)
1B - Morneau (about $7)
RF - Young (about $0.4)
DH - Kubel (about $1)
2B - Punto ($2.4)
SS - Casilla (about $0.4)

C - Redmond ($0.95)
C - Morales (about $0.4)
OF - Monroe ($3.82)
3B - Buscher (about $0.4)

1P - Santana ($13.25)
2P - Baker (about $0.4)
3P - Liriano (about $0.4)
4P - Slowey (about $0.4)
5P - Bonser (about $0.4)

CL - Nathan ($6)
RP - Neshek (about $0.4)
RP - Guerrier (about $1)
RP - Reyes ($1)
RP - Crain ($1.05)
RP - Perkins (about $0.4)

The total, with one spot left to fill, is about $56 million, well short of last year's $71 million, let alone the $78 million or so they can afford. The contract deadline for arbitration eligibles is tomorrow, so let's get spending!

Free Agents

I like Marcus Giles for his defense and power at second base. Coming off two down years, he should be willing to take a 1-year deal for something around $5 million. Even his awful 2007 was better than Punto's. Sign him and send Punto to the bench, where his glove and base-running can make a difference late in games.

Let's go ahead and sign Carlos Silva to that 4-year, $40 million contract. He's only had one bad year, otherwise he's been totally solid. We'll plan on trading him later in 2008, of course, whenever it's most advantageous. But meanwhile, we'll get an innings-eater who, with a little run support, could have easliy been a 16-18 game winner last year. Boof can test out his conditioning in Rochester.

If the bells have finally stopped ringing, bring Koskie to camp. Not much to lose, huge potential upside if he returns to form, in terms of production, defense, and PR.

Trades
I have a lot of strategic reasons for liking Kemp. He should be similar to Cuddyer defensively and power-wise, but hit 30-50 points higher. I see him as a band-aid in CF until Span or Pridie is ready. After that, he's an option to send to LF when we're ready to move Cuddyer. I'm not sure Nick Blackburn's stock will ever be higher - the Dodgers might be enticed to make this trade one-to-one. Of course, if they'd take Boof and somebody else, I'd be OK with that, too. Tyner moves to the bench, where his glove, pesky bat, and base-running can make a difference late in games.

Contracts
Give Santana a 5-year, $105 million extension with a $7 million signing bonus. That will get his 2008 salary over $20 million, making him the highest-paid starting pitcher in the league, and the second-highest paid player overall (at the moment), a number befitting his stature. I bet he'd take it.

Give Morneau 4 years, $45 million, with a $15 million option for a fifth year. He's ready to start hitting 40 homers a year in 2008.

Give Cuddyer 3 years, $23 million, with a $10 million option for a fourth year. We'll likely trade him at some point in the life of this contract.

Give Kubel 4 years, $18 million, with a $10 million option for a fifth year. He's ready to blow up - we should lock him up while he's relatively cheap.

Give Guerrier 2 years, $2 million.

Give Nathan a 3-year, $36 million extension. We'll likely be trading him at some point in 2008 as well.

Giles, Silva, and Santana's signing bonus get us up to $78 million - the fans can be secure that we won't be outspent by KC, and that Pohlad's not pocketing any more money. Can we compete? Here's the revised roster, with the production I'd expect from each player (BA, OPS, HR for position players, ERA, WHIP for pitchers):

CF - Kemp (.320, .850, 20)
3B - Harris (.280, .750, 12)
C - Mauer (.320, .850, 12)
LF - Cuddyer (.280, .825, 20)
1B - Morneau (.300, .900, 40)
RF - Young (.300, .800, 16)
DH - Kubel (.290, .825, 20)
2B - Giles (.265, .750, 12)
SS - Casilla (.270, .700, 3)

C - Redmond (.300, .700, 1)
C - Morales (.280, .750, 5)
OF - Tyner (.280, .675, 1!)
OF - Monroe (.270, .800, 10)
IF - Punto (.250, .640, 1)

1P - Santana (3.00, 1.00)
2P - Silva (4.20, 1.30)
3P - Liriano (3.50, 1.10)
4P - Baker (4.20, 1.20)
5P - Slowey (4.25, 1.25)

CL - Nathan (2.00, 1.00)
RP - Neshek (2.00, 1.00)
RP - Guerrier (3.00, 1.20)
RP - Reyes (3.50, 1.50)
RP - Crain (4.00, 1.30)
RP - Perkins (3.50, 1.20)

The guys in this bunch who really played to their potential in 2007 were Silva, Nathan, Neshek, Guerrier, Perkins (when he was around), Kemp, Redmond, Tyner, Kubel in the second half, and maybe Harris (not a lot of data on him yet). In most cases I expect their numbers to be about the same or slightly lower. Monroe's numbers are based on his appearances against lefties, the only pitchers he'll be facing in 2008. Everyone else has it in them to improve upon last year, and I've tried to come up with numbers around their career average, or between 2006 and 2007.

Not too bad - get a lead after 6 or 7 and things should go well. This lineup should produce a lot more runs than the 2007 team, while the pitchers are capable of putting up a team ERA as good or slightly better. Span, Pridie, Buscher, Tolbert, and Bonser are all waiting at AAA when someone goes down. Hunter is the only player of any importance to the fans who isn't back, and he and Rondell White have been replaced by two of the most promising young hitters in the Majors. Keep those season ticket sales coming! If we can't keep up with Cleveland and Detroit by the end of July, we can deal Silva and/or Nathan, even Cuddyer, for some major returns, since the receiving teams will be getting high-value players under long-term contracts - no rent-a-players from us! A lot depends on whether guys can bounce back from their troubles of 2007, but hopefully, they'll all be motivated to do so. They should be able to get us back over .500, at least.

Next: How these moves can start the Twins on the road to success through 2010.