With Carl Pavano coming back to the Twins next season via salary arbitration, somebody had to be trimmed from the 40-man roster. Bill Smith's choice: Boof Bonser. He had rejected a 1-year contract offer earlier in the week, and so probably had ideas about making a little more than the Twins had in mind. Still, as a first-year arbitration-eligible player who missed all of 2009 and was largely ineffective in 2008 (5.93 ERA in 118.1 IP), the difference couldn't have been more than a couple 100K - chump change, even for the Twins.
Boof was no lock to be a contributor in 2010, though his rehab from offseason shoulder surgery evidently went well enough that he was ready to pitch in September, if needed. He struck out better than a batter per inning during his 52 IP bullpen stint in 2008, and had a reasonable 2.7 BB/9. It was his BABIP that got him into trouble, as well as an inability to strand runners. Those are the sorts of things that can fluctuate a lot year-to-year. With such solid peripherals, Boof was a decent bet for the bullpen in 2010, and he was probably going to get a shot at the final rotation spot in spring training.
For the trivial sum he would cost, even had the Twins lost their arbitration case, it's hard to believe that the decision was motivated by money. And yet, what else could be the reason for choosing to DFA Boof, while preserving a place on the 40-man for Bobby Keppel? Just about anybody in the upper levels of the Twins' system, as well as any number of guys who are about to be non-tendered on Friday, can do what Keppel does: provide replacement level relief. Not everyone can put up a K/9 over 9.0. Keppel certainly can't. So what could be the reason to prefer him, other than to save an extra $0.5M? I hope it's not because he figures into the Twins' plans for 2010. Lord knows, they should be able to do better.
Showing posts with label Boof Bonser. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boof Bonser. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Back to Baseball
Boof Bonser's exploratory surgery revealed a partially torn labrum and rotator cuff, and he now will likely miss the 2009 season. This is bad news for Boof, who was surely looking forward to improving upon what was, overall, a calamitous 2008 campaign. It was not a sure thing that he would be a solid contributor in the bullpen, but his stuff certainly fits the role, so this injury will cost the Twins some depth they might have used out of the 'pen this year. However, the overall impact on the roster won't be terrible. Philip Humber will now almost certainly make the team (he'll have to utterly stink to risk a trip through waivers after Brian Bass was protected last spring). If the Twins elect to go with 12 pitchers, there may be a slot for Jose Mijares. There may also be a spot for some as yet unsigned reliever - Dennys Reyes is still available! But it also gives them a rationale to leave camp with only 6 relievers (Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Craig Breslow, Luis Ayala and Humber), providing an extra bench spot for this spring's Matt Tolbert. Or for last spring's Matt Tolbert.
Twins 5, Boston 2
Twins lead Mayor's Cup 1-0
It was great to turn on Gameday and listen to TRN again. I was even excited to hear this year's crop of bummer PSAs between innings. And I couldn't wait to find out how the 2008 wunderkinds were growing up on the field.
Glen Perkins was reminiscent of many of his starts last season - at least the first 2 innings of those starts. He was efficient despite allowing a hit in each inning, only struck out a batter every other inning and got 5 fly ball outs. Yep, that's his game.
It was good to see a lot of patience by the hitters vs. Tim Wakefield. It's gotta be tough to face a knuckleballer in your first game, but the Twins made him throw a ton of pitches and dinked their way to a crooked number in the 2nd. Morneau, Cuddyer and Kubel all drew walks.
How typical to see Delmon Young come out hacking at the first pitch in his first AB, get behind 0-2, then come up with an IF hit (ground ball, of course). In his 2nd AB, he wisely followed Kubel's walk by taking a couple of pitches and working ahead 2-1, but then grounded into a DP. No progress there so far.
Brian Buscher was the only player who hit Wakefield hard, and he ripped a double in his 2nd AB. Could he be locked in after being displaced by Joe Crede? Or will this spring be like last year, when he hit a HR in his first game vs. Boston, then scuffled the rest of the month?
Buscher's replacement at 3rd, Danny Valencia, also came up with a couple of hits.
I wasn't terribly surprised to see that of Crain, Nathan and Ayala, it was Nathan who struggled. He's the one whose role is secure, and so he has nothing to do this spring but tune himself up. Maybe a bit less of a mental edge than the other guys had.
Good to get the Mayor's Cup started on the right foot (I want that cup!). I can't wait to see what the rest of the guys have in store tomorrow. Baseball is back!
Twins 5, Boston 2
Twins lead Mayor's Cup 1-0
It was great to turn on Gameday and listen to TRN again. I was even excited to hear this year's crop of bummer PSAs between innings. And I couldn't wait to find out how the 2008 wunderkinds were growing up on the field.
Glen Perkins was reminiscent of many of his starts last season - at least the first 2 innings of those starts. He was efficient despite allowing a hit in each inning, only struck out a batter every other inning and got 5 fly ball outs. Yep, that's his game.
It was good to see a lot of patience by the hitters vs. Tim Wakefield. It's gotta be tough to face a knuckleballer in your first game, but the Twins made him throw a ton of pitches and dinked their way to a crooked number in the 2nd. Morneau, Cuddyer and Kubel all drew walks.
How typical to see Delmon Young come out hacking at the first pitch in his first AB, get behind 0-2, then come up with an IF hit (ground ball, of course). In his 2nd AB, he wisely followed Kubel's walk by taking a couple of pitches and working ahead 2-1, but then grounded into a DP. No progress there so far.
Brian Buscher was the only player who hit Wakefield hard, and he ripped a double in his 2nd AB. Could he be locked in after being displaced by Joe Crede? Or will this spring be like last year, when he hit a HR in his first game vs. Boston, then scuffled the rest of the month?
Buscher's replacement at 3rd, Danny Valencia, also came up with a couple of hits.
I wasn't terribly surprised to see that of Crain, Nathan and Ayala, it was Nathan who struggled. He's the one whose role is secure, and so he has nothing to do this spring but tune himself up. Maybe a bit less of a mental edge than the other guys had.
Good to get the Mayor's Cup started on the right foot (I want that cup!). I can't wait to see what the rest of the guys have in store tomorrow. Baseball is back!
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Take a Look Ahead
Now that I've had a few days to recover from the 2008 season, I'm ready to take my first look forward to 2009. Many of the blogs I link to have already gotten a good start on arguments for off-season priorities, and I'm happy to join the discussion. My approach will be to establish a baseline for off-season upgrades by answering the question: What kind of team can the Twins produce from players already within their system?
The first step is to assess how many of the players who finished the season with the Twins are likely to be back next year. The answer is extremely good news. Everyone is either under contract or team control for 2009 with the exception of Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes, Eddie Guardado and Adam Everett. Furthermore, the team's payroll obligations fall so short of its capacity (something on the order of $30 million) that the Twins could easily re-sign all of those players if it so desired.
So the 2009 Twins could be exactly the same as the 2008 Twins. Would that make 2009 just as competitive? A lot of folks point to down years in Cleveland and Detroit, the strength of the White Sox, and the strong finish from the Royals as evidence that the division will be much tougher next year. On its face, I'm not sure I buy that. Age is swiftly catching up to the Tigers and Sox, the Indians diminished themselves by trading away CC Sabathia and Casey Blake, and the Royals' young talent is at least half a year behind that of the Twins. I don't expect any of these teams to stand pat this off-season, but free agent acquisitions and trades, no matter how splashy, are no guarantee of success (just ask the Tigers). There are enough weaknesses among the other members of the division that I believe the Twins could win 88 games again with the same players.
That's also because the Twins are young enough that many of their players can be reasonably expected to match or improve upon this year's performance. We've all seen Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer hit for more power than they did in 2008, for example. Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez, each just 22 for most of '08, have plenty of time to make hitting adjustments. And the rotation of Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins, having all pitched deep into September, should be even more settled and stronger down the stretch in 2009.
Certainly we expect a few players to regress or have down years (hello, Matt Guerrier). But, in general, I think it's likely that the Twins will have a lower staff ERA, allow fewer unearned runs, and remain in the top half of the AL in scoring (the BA with RISP will undoubtedly be lower, but the HR numbers should increase, which will make up for a lot of the loss). In other words, I think the Twins could run out the same squad they did in September and come away with more or less the same run differential, which would translate, on average, into about the same number of wins. Will 88 wins be good enough to take the division? Probably not, but it should be enough to keep them in the running.
But the Twins won't be running out the same squad next year. With Pat Neshek and Cuddyer returning from injuries, there are more outfielders and pitchers than spots available. Boof Bonser and Philip Humber are out of options, and will be lost if they don't make the team. And there were a couple of players whose performance doesn't merit bringing them back.
Free Agents
Guardado and Everett should be allowed to move on without a thought. Punto and Reyes deserve a little more consideration.
Shortstop is a position in which the Twins could offer someone a multi-year deal, since their is no heir-apparent to the position in the minors. But the available free agents aren't too impressive for the money they'll be demanding. If the baseline is Punto, that's not a terrible place to start. His career OPS is essentially the same as Everett's - nothing to crow about, of course, but his .320 career OBP makes him likely to be on base more than Gomez, for example. He's got good speed on the bases, and can play above-average defense at 6 positions, including SS. I'd be inclined to offer Punto a 2-year deal for around $3 million a year - then if something better comes along at SS, you've still got one of the league's most versatile bench players.
As for Reyes, anybody who thinks the Twins need to upgrade the bullpen should think twice about letting him walk. Despite missing some time and effectiveness in 2007 when he had some arm troubles, Reyes compiled a 2.14 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 126.1 IP in his 3 seasons with the club. His K/9 was 7.77, and his G/F ratio was about 3/1. Out of 531 total batters faced over his stint with the Twins, 62.7% put the ball on the ground or struck out - the sort of outcomes you're looking for when you bring in a reliever with men on base. Only 26 of 109 H were for extra bases (23.8%), and he allowed only 3 SF. Lefties hit just .202/.272/.266 against him with 3 HR and 63 K in 248 AB (25.4% struck out).
It's true that Craig Breslow and Jose Mijares pitched brilliantly for the Twins this year, but they're each relatively untested. They have just 75.2 MLB IP combined. Breslow was hurt earlier in his career by a high walk total - maybe Rick Anderson sorted that out, or maybe it was just something he was able to hide in 4+ months with the Twins that will resurface next year. Mijares was dynamite in September, but will he be as effective once the scouts catch up to him? Say he has a lousy spring training, and the team decides to give him a little more seasoning in AAA to start the season. Having Reyes on board would give the Twins that luxury. Plus, who says you only need 2 LHP in the bullpen? If 3 of your best pitchers happen to be lefties (as would appear to be the case here), why shouldn't they all make the team?
Lefty specialists can play a long time. Based on his recent track record, I wouldn't be shy about offering Reyes up to a 3-year deal at the going rate for matchup pitchers.
Arbitration Eligibles
More incredibly good news for the Twins - only Matt Guerrier and Jason Kubel are eligible for arbitration this year. This would be the time to sign Kubel to a multi-year deal. While his power numbers began to approach their potential, his BA could still probably improve. He's entering his physical prime, and appears to be over the knee injury that cost him all of 2005 and a big part of 2006. If the Twins wait one more year, and his performance improves again, the price will go up a lot. If they act now, his actual performances should make it possible to get him for something like 3 years, $20 million (+ an option year!).
As for Guerrier, I don't think his abominable finish is indicative of anything more than physical and mental burnout, and that if he were returned to the lower leverage roles he held in earlier seasons he would be effective. But with the emergence of Breslow and Mijares, and the return of Neshek, I'm not sure there's a spot for him. I'd try to trade him before arbitration looms.
Odd Men Out
Bonser and Humber must both make the team or be lost to waivers. That's not going to happen. Each finished the season pretty strongly, but neither has the overall numbers to displace other, more established members of the bullpen. I suppose Humber would have to be considered as a #5 starter should the Twins opt to trade either Perkins or Blackburn, and Bonser could get the nod if they decide not to sign Reyes and Guerrier. There is likely no room for Bobby Korecky in any case. If it were me, I'd make every effort to trade these guys before February.
The outfield is pretty crowded. His big multi-year contract assures us that Cuddyer will be starting in RF. Denard Span had way too good a season at all levels to be denied a spot. Kubel was the 2nd-best power threat on a pretty wimpy team - most of the time, he'll DH. Delmon Young, despite a mostly underwhelming season, made strides in his K/BB rate, and was much more productive in the last 2/3 of the season. And then there's Carlos Gomez, defensive wunderkind, terror on the bases, mess at the plate.
Unless the Twins opt to trade Young, the corner OF positions are set, and there's no way Gomez beats out Span next year. Span was such an effective leadoff hitter, the Twins would be nuts to trade him to make room for Gomez. So the question becomes: Do they put Gomez on the bench as a PR/defensive replacement, or send him to the minors to refine his game? I think the right thing to do is to give him 4-5 ABs every day in AAA. Just as they did with Liriano this year, the Twins need to show Gomez that he's got to produce the goods if he wants a slot on the big club, and that means learning a plate approach that puts the ball on the ground, goes the other way, takes walks, and cuts down on strikeouts. Unless he shows up in spring training with that sort of approach, I'd be inclined to option him down and let Jason Pridie fill the bench role.
As for the rotation, the Twins have 5 starters who are average or better under team control for the next 4 years. They certainly have the option of trading one for something else they'd like to upgrade, but they can't be blamed for wanting to horde them either. That means that starters at the upper levels of the minors, unless they're undeniably awesome, are all expendable. I'd put Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak on that list.
So, looking exclusively within the organization and not fantasizing about any other players who may or may not be available, the best squad the Twins can put together for next spring looks like this:
Starters:
1. Denard Span, CF
2. Alexi Casilla, 2B
3. Joe Mauer, C
4. Justin Morneau, 1B
5. Michael Cuddyer, RF
6. Jason Kubel, DH
7. Delmon Young, LF
8. Brian Buscher, 3B
9. Nick Punto, SS
Bench:
1. Mike Redmond, C
2. Brendan Harris, IF
3. Matt Tolbert, IF
4. Jason Pridie, OF
5. Randy Ruiz, DH/PH
Rotation:
1. Scott Baker, RHP
2. Francisco Liriano, LHP
3. Kevin Slowey, RHP
4. Nick Blackburn, RHP
5. Glen Perkins, LHP
Bullpen
1. Joe Nathan, Closer
2. Pat Neshek, RHP
3. Jose Mijares, LHP
4. Jesse Crain, RHP
5. Dennys Reyes, LHP
6. Craig Breslow, LHP
Cuddyer breaks up the string of Mauer/Morneau/Kubel. The relatively disappointing contributions of Young, Buscher/Harris and Punto are all a bit more palatable when they slide down a slot in the lineup. Pridie and Tolbert provide speed and glove upgrades over the 3Bs and corner OFs. And, despite his high K rate, Ruiz has compiled a strong enough minor league resume to merit at least a platoon/PH role in the Majors. Everybody else performed well in 2008 and obviously deserves a shot at holding their spots in 2009.
With a surplus of about $30 million and Bonser, Humber, Guerrier, Korecky and Duensing all crying out to be traded, there's certainly plenty of capital available for upgrades, and the front office should make an effort to spend it. But they should remember that if they'd held their cards last season, they probably would have had a 90-win team instead of 88. This team can win 88 again in 2009 - that's the baseline. Take it from there.
The first step is to assess how many of the players who finished the season with the Twins are likely to be back next year. The answer is extremely good news. Everyone is either under contract or team control for 2009 with the exception of Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes, Eddie Guardado and Adam Everett. Furthermore, the team's payroll obligations fall so short of its capacity (something on the order of $30 million) that the Twins could easily re-sign all of those players if it so desired.
So the 2009 Twins could be exactly the same as the 2008 Twins. Would that make 2009 just as competitive? A lot of folks point to down years in Cleveland and Detroit, the strength of the White Sox, and the strong finish from the Royals as evidence that the division will be much tougher next year. On its face, I'm not sure I buy that. Age is swiftly catching up to the Tigers and Sox, the Indians diminished themselves by trading away CC Sabathia and Casey Blake, and the Royals' young talent is at least half a year behind that of the Twins. I don't expect any of these teams to stand pat this off-season, but free agent acquisitions and trades, no matter how splashy, are no guarantee of success (just ask the Tigers). There are enough weaknesses among the other members of the division that I believe the Twins could win 88 games again with the same players.
That's also because the Twins are young enough that many of their players can be reasonably expected to match or improve upon this year's performance. We've all seen Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer hit for more power than they did in 2008, for example. Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez, each just 22 for most of '08, have plenty of time to make hitting adjustments. And the rotation of Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins, having all pitched deep into September, should be even more settled and stronger down the stretch in 2009.
Certainly we expect a few players to regress or have down years (hello, Matt Guerrier). But, in general, I think it's likely that the Twins will have a lower staff ERA, allow fewer unearned runs, and remain in the top half of the AL in scoring (the BA with RISP will undoubtedly be lower, but the HR numbers should increase, which will make up for a lot of the loss). In other words, I think the Twins could run out the same squad they did in September and come away with more or less the same run differential, which would translate, on average, into about the same number of wins. Will 88 wins be good enough to take the division? Probably not, but it should be enough to keep them in the running.
But the Twins won't be running out the same squad next year. With Pat Neshek and Cuddyer returning from injuries, there are more outfielders and pitchers than spots available. Boof Bonser and Philip Humber are out of options, and will be lost if they don't make the team. And there were a couple of players whose performance doesn't merit bringing them back.
Free Agents
Guardado and Everett should be allowed to move on without a thought. Punto and Reyes deserve a little more consideration.
Shortstop is a position in which the Twins could offer someone a multi-year deal, since their is no heir-apparent to the position in the minors. But the available free agents aren't too impressive for the money they'll be demanding. If the baseline is Punto, that's not a terrible place to start. His career OPS is essentially the same as Everett's - nothing to crow about, of course, but his .320 career OBP makes him likely to be on base more than Gomez, for example. He's got good speed on the bases, and can play above-average defense at 6 positions, including SS. I'd be inclined to offer Punto a 2-year deal for around $3 million a year - then if something better comes along at SS, you've still got one of the league's most versatile bench players.
As for Reyes, anybody who thinks the Twins need to upgrade the bullpen should think twice about letting him walk. Despite missing some time and effectiveness in 2007 when he had some arm troubles, Reyes compiled a 2.14 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 126.1 IP in his 3 seasons with the club. His K/9 was 7.77, and his G/F ratio was about 3/1. Out of 531 total batters faced over his stint with the Twins, 62.7% put the ball on the ground or struck out - the sort of outcomes you're looking for when you bring in a reliever with men on base. Only 26 of 109 H were for extra bases (23.8%), and he allowed only 3 SF. Lefties hit just .202/.272/.266 against him with 3 HR and 63 K in 248 AB (25.4% struck out).
It's true that Craig Breslow and Jose Mijares pitched brilliantly for the Twins this year, but they're each relatively untested. They have just 75.2 MLB IP combined. Breslow was hurt earlier in his career by a high walk total - maybe Rick Anderson sorted that out, or maybe it was just something he was able to hide in 4+ months with the Twins that will resurface next year. Mijares was dynamite in September, but will he be as effective once the scouts catch up to him? Say he has a lousy spring training, and the team decides to give him a little more seasoning in AAA to start the season. Having Reyes on board would give the Twins that luxury. Plus, who says you only need 2 LHP in the bullpen? If 3 of your best pitchers happen to be lefties (as would appear to be the case here), why shouldn't they all make the team?
Lefty specialists can play a long time. Based on his recent track record, I wouldn't be shy about offering Reyes up to a 3-year deal at the going rate for matchup pitchers.
Arbitration Eligibles
More incredibly good news for the Twins - only Matt Guerrier and Jason Kubel are eligible for arbitration this year. This would be the time to sign Kubel to a multi-year deal. While his power numbers began to approach their potential, his BA could still probably improve. He's entering his physical prime, and appears to be over the knee injury that cost him all of 2005 and a big part of 2006. If the Twins wait one more year, and his performance improves again, the price will go up a lot. If they act now, his actual performances should make it possible to get him for something like 3 years, $20 million (+ an option year!).
As for Guerrier, I don't think his abominable finish is indicative of anything more than physical and mental burnout, and that if he were returned to the lower leverage roles he held in earlier seasons he would be effective. But with the emergence of Breslow and Mijares, and the return of Neshek, I'm not sure there's a spot for him. I'd try to trade him before arbitration looms.
Odd Men Out
Bonser and Humber must both make the team or be lost to waivers. That's not going to happen. Each finished the season pretty strongly, but neither has the overall numbers to displace other, more established members of the bullpen. I suppose Humber would have to be considered as a #5 starter should the Twins opt to trade either Perkins or Blackburn, and Bonser could get the nod if they decide not to sign Reyes and Guerrier. There is likely no room for Bobby Korecky in any case. If it were me, I'd make every effort to trade these guys before February.
The outfield is pretty crowded. His big multi-year contract assures us that Cuddyer will be starting in RF. Denard Span had way too good a season at all levels to be denied a spot. Kubel was the 2nd-best power threat on a pretty wimpy team - most of the time, he'll DH. Delmon Young, despite a mostly underwhelming season, made strides in his K/BB rate, and was much more productive in the last 2/3 of the season. And then there's Carlos Gomez, defensive wunderkind, terror on the bases, mess at the plate.
Unless the Twins opt to trade Young, the corner OF positions are set, and there's no way Gomez beats out Span next year. Span was such an effective leadoff hitter, the Twins would be nuts to trade him to make room for Gomez. So the question becomes: Do they put Gomez on the bench as a PR/defensive replacement, or send him to the minors to refine his game? I think the right thing to do is to give him 4-5 ABs every day in AAA. Just as they did with Liriano this year, the Twins need to show Gomez that he's got to produce the goods if he wants a slot on the big club, and that means learning a plate approach that puts the ball on the ground, goes the other way, takes walks, and cuts down on strikeouts. Unless he shows up in spring training with that sort of approach, I'd be inclined to option him down and let Jason Pridie fill the bench role.
As for the rotation, the Twins have 5 starters who are average or better under team control for the next 4 years. They certainly have the option of trading one for something else they'd like to upgrade, but they can't be blamed for wanting to horde them either. That means that starters at the upper levels of the minors, unless they're undeniably awesome, are all expendable. I'd put Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak on that list.
So, looking exclusively within the organization and not fantasizing about any other players who may or may not be available, the best squad the Twins can put together for next spring looks like this:
Starters:
1. Denard Span, CF
2. Alexi Casilla, 2B
3. Joe Mauer, C
4. Justin Morneau, 1B
5. Michael Cuddyer, RF
6. Jason Kubel, DH
7. Delmon Young, LF
8. Brian Buscher, 3B
9. Nick Punto, SS
Bench:
1. Mike Redmond, C
2. Brendan Harris, IF
3. Matt Tolbert, IF
4. Jason Pridie, OF
5. Randy Ruiz, DH/PH
Rotation:
1. Scott Baker, RHP
2. Francisco Liriano, LHP
3. Kevin Slowey, RHP
4. Nick Blackburn, RHP
5. Glen Perkins, LHP
Bullpen
1. Joe Nathan, Closer
2. Pat Neshek, RHP
3. Jose Mijares, LHP
4. Jesse Crain, RHP
5. Dennys Reyes, LHP
6. Craig Breslow, LHP
Cuddyer breaks up the string of Mauer/Morneau/Kubel. The relatively disappointing contributions of Young, Buscher/Harris and Punto are all a bit more palatable when they slide down a slot in the lineup. Pridie and Tolbert provide speed and glove upgrades over the 3Bs and corner OFs. And, despite his high K rate, Ruiz has compiled a strong enough minor league resume to merit at least a platoon/PH role in the Majors. Everybody else performed well in 2008 and obviously deserves a shot at holding their spots in 2009.
With a surplus of about $30 million and Bonser, Humber, Guerrier, Korecky and Duensing all crying out to be traded, there's certainly plenty of capital available for upgrades, and the front office should make an effort to spend it. But they should remember that if they'd held their cards last season, they probably would have had a 90-win team instead of 88. This team can win 88 again in 2009 - that's the baseline. Take it from there.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Enough Already
Red Sox 18, Twins 5
We're working our way into a nice routine over here. Baby sleeps on Daddy's chest, Daddy watches the game on the laptop, Mommy takes a nap. Everybody wins!
Oh, except the Twins. They most certainly did not win.
Only the Red Sox win at Fenway Park, so I don't want to get too upset about Wednesday's outcome. The Twins had an opportunity to win the first 2 games of the series, and were in the last game until the 7th. They're playing very well, and they're quite close to being able to outplay the best in the league, but they're not quite there yet. Today's fiasco was the result of the very things I've been harping on for weeks, so there's no need to expound too much:
Livan Hernandez is the weak link in the rotation.
Boof Bonser or Brian Bass (or neither), but not both.
Denard Span belongs in the leadoff spot.
You can't give a good team extra outs.
It's amazing how frequently Boof is the victim of bizarre defensive miscues. On Wednesday, 2 of the 4 H he allowed were fly balls that Jason Kubel should have caught in RF. His (typically) ugly line might have looked quite different had those plays been made. However, part of being a good pitcher is picking up your defense, and Boof has shown no ability to do that all year.
In a way, I'm glad this sweep happened. It should wake the organization out of its winning-streak induced fog and remind them that they have yet to assemble the best possible team. When you're on a streak, you tend to skip shaving, wear the same undershirt, maintain every behavior that's been working. Above all, you don't change anything. That attitude will be fatal to 2nd half success. Now that the streak is over, I hope the Twins will finally take this opportunity to make the last few changes they need to be 3-4 games better than the White Sox after the All-Star break.
We're working our way into a nice routine over here. Baby sleeps on Daddy's chest, Daddy watches the game on the laptop, Mommy takes a nap. Everybody wins!
Oh, except the Twins. They most certainly did not win.
Only the Red Sox win at Fenway Park, so I don't want to get too upset about Wednesday's outcome. The Twins had an opportunity to win the first 2 games of the series, and were in the last game until the 7th. They're playing very well, and they're quite close to being able to outplay the best in the league, but they're not quite there yet. Today's fiasco was the result of the very things I've been harping on for weeks, so there's no need to expound too much:
Livan Hernandez is the weak link in the rotation.
Boof Bonser or Brian Bass (or neither), but not both.
Denard Span belongs in the leadoff spot.
You can't give a good team extra outs.
It's amazing how frequently Boof is the victim of bizarre defensive miscues. On Wednesday, 2 of the 4 H he allowed were fly balls that Jason Kubel should have caught in RF. His (typically) ugly line might have looked quite different had those plays been made. However, part of being a good pitcher is picking up your defense, and Boof has shown no ability to do that all year.
In a way, I'm glad this sweep happened. It should wake the organization out of its winning-streak induced fog and remind them that they have yet to assemble the best possible team. When you're on a streak, you tend to skip shaving, wear the same undershirt, maintain every behavior that's been working. Above all, you don't change anything. That attitude will be fatal to 2nd half success. Now that the streak is over, I hope the Twins will finally take this opportunity to make the last few changes they need to be 3-4 games better than the White Sox after the All-Star break.
Monday, May 26, 2008
Lamb Slaughters Tigers
Twins 9, Tigers 4
Tigers 19, Twins 3
Twins 6, Tigers 1
That's what I love about baseball. Your team can endure its most lop-sided defeat of the year, and yet you can still feel good when the weekend is over. Though the Twins were battered for 24 runs over the 3 games (8.31 ERA!), they did all their sucking in the middle game, and came away series winners. Though they've allowed 16 more runs than they've scored this season, they're 25-25, and only 3 games out of first place.
The Twins have pretty well settled who will be leaving the rotation when Scott Baker is ready to come off the DL in about 10 days. Kevin Slowey finally got the last out of the 6th inning, and has now averaged almost 5.2 IP with a 3.63 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 4 starts since returning from the DL. Glen Perkins was great in his first 3 starts, but topped them all on Sunday. After allowing just 1 ER in 7.2 IP, he is now averaging over 6.1 IP with a 2.77 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. As for Boof Bonser, well, it hadn't been going very well, and Saturday was as bad as it can be. He allowed 8 ER in 3+ IP; over his last 4 starts, he's averaging just under 5 IP with a 10.37 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. This is not a difficult decision - Boof will almost certainly be sent to the bullpen.
To make room, someone else will have to go. That will be either Brian Bass or Juan Rincon, who joined Boof before the firing squad on Saturday. While Bass' line (1.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 H) may be more spectacularly horrid, he came into the game with a respectable 3.90 ERA, and had been doing a pretty solid job in the long-relief roll up to that point. Juan Rincon (2.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 2 BB) was brought in to bail Bass out, and failed to do it. In his last 9 appearances, he's had just one perfect inning, walking 11 and allowing 10 H in 11.2 IP. That's all since Neshek went down and the Twins needed him to step up. One of those two is going to be DFA by the end of next week.
Dennys Reyes had a rough weekend as well, although I'd like to put his outings in context. It was always doubtful that he would be successful outside of the situational lefty role. In this series, he was asked to face 7 righties and 1 lefty. He got the lefty out. The righties went 4 for 6 with a BB. On Friday, though he was unable to retire anyone, he didn't pitch badly. The hits he allowed were:
*a 2-hop grounder 1 inch fair and 1 inch over the glove of Mike Lamb,
*a soft liner off the end of the bat that barely had enough mustard to clear the infield,
*a booming triple on a 3-2 pitch after Pudge had fouled off 4 good 2-strike pitches.
15 pitches, only 1 was poorly located. 93% were good! Still, let's try to keep him facing just lefties as much as possible.
Offensively, the star of the show was Mike Lamb, who went 5-7 with 4R, 2B, 3B, 2 BB and his first HR as a Twin. He still has time to cement his place in the lineup if he can keep raising his average over the next 2 weeks. If not, Brian Buscher is playing too well in Rochester to be denied much longer. And Jason Kubel delivered a clutch grand slam to win Sunday's game, capping a weekend in which he went 3-8 with a BB and 2 R. With Craig Monroe just 1 for his last 24 and a bunch of RHP taking the hill in the next few days, I suspect Kubel will get plenty of chances to build on solid numbers over the past week.
Tigers 19, Twins 3
Twins 6, Tigers 1
That's what I love about baseball. Your team can endure its most lop-sided defeat of the year, and yet you can still feel good when the weekend is over. Though the Twins were battered for 24 runs over the 3 games (8.31 ERA!), they did all their sucking in the middle game, and came away series winners. Though they've allowed 16 more runs than they've scored this season, they're 25-25, and only 3 games out of first place.
The Twins have pretty well settled who will be leaving the rotation when Scott Baker is ready to come off the DL in about 10 days. Kevin Slowey finally got the last out of the 6th inning, and has now averaged almost 5.2 IP with a 3.63 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 4 starts since returning from the DL. Glen Perkins was great in his first 3 starts, but topped them all on Sunday. After allowing just 1 ER in 7.2 IP, he is now averaging over 6.1 IP with a 2.77 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. As for Boof Bonser, well, it hadn't been going very well, and Saturday was as bad as it can be. He allowed 8 ER in 3+ IP; over his last 4 starts, he's averaging just under 5 IP with a 10.37 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. This is not a difficult decision - Boof will almost certainly be sent to the bullpen.
To make room, someone else will have to go. That will be either Brian Bass or Juan Rincon, who joined Boof before the firing squad on Saturday. While Bass' line (1.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 H) may be more spectacularly horrid, he came into the game with a respectable 3.90 ERA, and had been doing a pretty solid job in the long-relief roll up to that point. Juan Rincon (2.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 2 BB) was brought in to bail Bass out, and failed to do it. In his last 9 appearances, he's had just one perfect inning, walking 11 and allowing 10 H in 11.2 IP. That's all since Neshek went down and the Twins needed him to step up. One of those two is going to be DFA by the end of next week.
Dennys Reyes had a rough weekend as well, although I'd like to put his outings in context. It was always doubtful that he would be successful outside of the situational lefty role. In this series, he was asked to face 7 righties and 1 lefty. He got the lefty out. The righties went 4 for 6 with a BB. On Friday, though he was unable to retire anyone, he didn't pitch badly. The hits he allowed were:
*a 2-hop grounder 1 inch fair and 1 inch over the glove of Mike Lamb,
*a soft liner off the end of the bat that barely had enough mustard to clear the infield,
*a booming triple on a 3-2 pitch after Pudge had fouled off 4 good 2-strike pitches.
15 pitches, only 1 was poorly located. 93% were good! Still, let's try to keep him facing just lefties as much as possible.
Offensively, the star of the show was Mike Lamb, who went 5-7 with 4R, 2B, 3B, 2 BB and his first HR as a Twin. He still has time to cement his place in the lineup if he can keep raising his average over the next 2 weeks. If not, Brian Buscher is playing too well in Rochester to be denied much longer. And Jason Kubel delivered a clutch grand slam to win Sunday's game, capping a weekend in which he went 3-8 with a BB and 2 R. With Craig Monroe just 1 for his last 24 and a bunch of RHP taking the hill in the next few days, I suspect Kubel will get plenty of chances to build on solid numbers over the past week.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Rochester to the Rescue
Twins 7, Rangers 6 (12 innings)
What game of firsts! Alexi Casilla hit his first HR, a 3-run shot, and has more homers than Delmon Young or Joe Mauer. Bobby Korecky got his first W and, because Gardy threw the kitchen sink at the Rangers in the 9th, his first hit. And new call-up Howie Clark delivered the game-winning hit. Three guys who weren't on the team a few weeks ago came in to clean up a big mess. It feels good now, but this game would have been agonizing to lose.
Boof Bonser recovered from 3 straight shaky starts to get the Twins into the 7th inning with just 2 R allowed on 3 H with 5 K. All 3 hits were for extra bases, including 2 HR, but they were solo shots, and the Twins were leading 5-2. After allowing 2 singles to put runners at 1st and 2nd with one out in the 7th, Rick Anderson came out to talk to Boof. He promptly got the come-backer he needed to start an inning-ending double-play. Unfortunately, he made a terrible throw, and everyone was safe. The next pitch was drilled into left-center for a 2-run single, and the Rangers were back in the game, and Boof was out. Had the Twins lost, they could have once again blamed a failure to execute a fundamental play.
The relief pitching was at turns brilliant and ugly. Obviously, Korecky was magnificent, rescuing Juan Rincon from a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the 11th. Rincon allowed a double and a walk, and after starting the next hitter with a ball, Anderson went out to remind him that this was not the time to be tentative. When the next pitch missed, Gardy was so ticked that he tried to take Rincon out mid-batter - which is not allowed; once the coach visits, the pitcher has to finish that AB (you learn something new every day!). Guerrier was terrific in saving Bonser from a jam in the 7th, but then he and Dennys Reyes got knocked around for 2 runs. Joe Nathan needed just 5 pitches to get through the 10th. I guess you don't want to use up your closer in the first game of a series, but I doubt he was tired, and could have come out for the 11th.
Oh well, it all worked out.
What game of firsts! Alexi Casilla hit his first HR, a 3-run shot, and has more homers than Delmon Young or Joe Mauer. Bobby Korecky got his first W and, because Gardy threw the kitchen sink at the Rangers in the 9th, his first hit. And new call-up Howie Clark delivered the game-winning hit. Three guys who weren't on the team a few weeks ago came in to clean up a big mess. It feels good now, but this game would have been agonizing to lose.
Boof Bonser recovered from 3 straight shaky starts to get the Twins into the 7th inning with just 2 R allowed on 3 H with 5 K. All 3 hits were for extra bases, including 2 HR, but they were solo shots, and the Twins were leading 5-2. After allowing 2 singles to put runners at 1st and 2nd with one out in the 7th, Rick Anderson came out to talk to Boof. He promptly got the come-backer he needed to start an inning-ending double-play. Unfortunately, he made a terrible throw, and everyone was safe. The next pitch was drilled into left-center for a 2-run single, and the Rangers were back in the game, and Boof was out. Had the Twins lost, they could have once again blamed a failure to execute a fundamental play.
The relief pitching was at turns brilliant and ugly. Obviously, Korecky was magnificent, rescuing Juan Rincon from a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the 11th. Rincon allowed a double and a walk, and after starting the next hitter with a ball, Anderson went out to remind him that this was not the time to be tentative. When the next pitch missed, Gardy was so ticked that he tried to take Rincon out mid-batter - which is not allowed; once the coach visits, the pitcher has to finish that AB (you learn something new every day!). Guerrier was terrific in saving Bonser from a jam in the 7th, but then he and Dennys Reyes got knocked around for 2 runs. Joe Nathan needed just 5 pitches to get through the 10th. I guess you don't want to use up your closer in the first game of a series, but I doubt he was tired, and could have come out for the 11th.
Oh well, it all worked out.
Monday, May 12, 2008
The Power of Pink
Twins 7, Red Sox 6
Red Sox 5, Twins 2
Twins 9, Red Sox 8
It was a bit of a hectic weekend for me. My parents came to visit for Mother's Day, so I spent most of my time with them. Though they are Twins fans as well, we didn't get a chance to watch/listen to any of this weekend's games after about the 6th inning on Friday. Looking up what I've been able to about the games, I'm very pleased that the Twins will have a chance to win this series against arguably the best team in the AL. At worst, it'll be a split, and that would be fine, too.
It was too bad that Boof got lit up on Friday, especially because his defense let him down a bit. Because Mauer lost track of Kevin Youkilis' swinging third strike in the dirt, the Sox were able to score 2 runs they didn't deserve in the second (2nd straight game Boof has had an inning extended on a wild pitch K). In the 5th, the leadoff single deflected off Boof's leg was played with far too little urgency by Harris, I thought. Delmon Young took a terrible route to Mike Lowell's 2-run double - he might have had an opportunity to catch it.
Too bad that Perkins' debut was diminished by the back-to-back HR leading off the 7th, turning a sterling start (6 IP, 1 ER) into merely Quality. Blackburn had what has lately turned into a pretty typical game, allowing 4 R on 9 H in 6 IP. He hurt himself by hitting 2 straight batters to leadoff the 3rd inning. His defense hurt him with a throwing error on the 2nd half of a potentially inning-ending DP in the 4th. Lots of baserunners, but his line could have been better in spite of them.
The bullpen pitched well on Friday, but got touched for 2 R in 3 IP on Saturday and 4 R in 3 IP on Sunday. Only Dennys Reyes escaped unscathed - even Joe Nathan got dinged for 2 R. Still, as their 5+ runs/game in the series proves, the Sox are going to get their hits and runs - they lead the league in BA, OBP and SLG by a healthy margin, and they're 3rd in SB to top it off.
The key to this weekend's wins was that the Twins scored plenty of runs themselves. Mike Lamb, Adam Everett and Craig Monroe all (finally) contributed key hits. I'm not sure what Jason Kubel was doing in the lineup on Friday vs. LHP Lester. He came into the game 4-24 vs. lefties. Between Lester and reliever Okajima, that line is now 4-28. If he's not careful, Kubel is going to play himself right out of the lineup.
Perhaps most satisfying was the performance from Carlos Gomez. He reached base in every game, delivered what I consider to be his most impressive hit of the season (a line-drive RBI single to right on a pitch knee-high on the outside corner - that's right, go with it!), and extended the Twins' improbable comeback against elite closer John Papelbon in the most improbable way - he laid off 3 straight pitches out of the zone after falling behind 1-2. He then stole second to get himself into position to score the winning run. He drew his 5th walk of the year the following night.
I'll be watching closely to see whether Gomez has made a real change in his approach. If he thinks about his ABs the way Denard Span does, his superior tools should easily lead him to better results. Through the weekend, by the way, Span was hitting .304/.415/.348, 13 BB/15 K, 11/13 SB, hopefully raising his trade value if nothing else.
New Additions
Pat Neshek will have to go to the DL, and Nick Punto will be joining him. Neshek is likely done for the year, a huge blow to the depth of the bullpen. Bobby Korecky will likely stick around in the bullpen, at least until Scott Baker is ready to come back. In place of Punto the Twins recalled Alexi Casilla. While his BA has not been impressive at Rochester (.219), his OBP has been excellent (.350), especially considering how few hits he has. He has 18 BB/18 K through 32 games. He's got pretty good speed and a strong arm, so his ability should be adequate to replace Punto.
Red Sox 5, Twins 2
Twins 9, Red Sox 8
It was a bit of a hectic weekend for me. My parents came to visit for Mother's Day, so I spent most of my time with them. Though they are Twins fans as well, we didn't get a chance to watch/listen to any of this weekend's games after about the 6th inning on Friday. Looking up what I've been able to about the games, I'm very pleased that the Twins will have a chance to win this series against arguably the best team in the AL. At worst, it'll be a split, and that would be fine, too.
It was too bad that Boof got lit up on Friday, especially because his defense let him down a bit. Because Mauer lost track of Kevin Youkilis' swinging third strike in the dirt, the Sox were able to score 2 runs they didn't deserve in the second (2nd straight game Boof has had an inning extended on a wild pitch K). In the 5th, the leadoff single deflected off Boof's leg was played with far too little urgency by Harris, I thought. Delmon Young took a terrible route to Mike Lowell's 2-run double - he might have had an opportunity to catch it.
Too bad that Perkins' debut was diminished by the back-to-back HR leading off the 7th, turning a sterling start (6 IP, 1 ER) into merely Quality. Blackburn had what has lately turned into a pretty typical game, allowing 4 R on 9 H in 6 IP. He hurt himself by hitting 2 straight batters to leadoff the 3rd inning. His defense hurt him with a throwing error on the 2nd half of a potentially inning-ending DP in the 4th. Lots of baserunners, but his line could have been better in spite of them.
The bullpen pitched well on Friday, but got touched for 2 R in 3 IP on Saturday and 4 R in 3 IP on Sunday. Only Dennys Reyes escaped unscathed - even Joe Nathan got dinged for 2 R. Still, as their 5+ runs/game in the series proves, the Sox are going to get their hits and runs - they lead the league in BA, OBP and SLG by a healthy margin, and they're 3rd in SB to top it off.
The key to this weekend's wins was that the Twins scored plenty of runs themselves. Mike Lamb, Adam Everett and Craig Monroe all (finally) contributed key hits. I'm not sure what Jason Kubel was doing in the lineup on Friday vs. LHP Lester. He came into the game 4-24 vs. lefties. Between Lester and reliever Okajima, that line is now 4-28. If he's not careful, Kubel is going to play himself right out of the lineup.
Perhaps most satisfying was the performance from Carlos Gomez. He reached base in every game, delivered what I consider to be his most impressive hit of the season (a line-drive RBI single to right on a pitch knee-high on the outside corner - that's right, go with it!), and extended the Twins' improbable comeback against elite closer John Papelbon in the most improbable way - he laid off 3 straight pitches out of the zone after falling behind 1-2. He then stole second to get himself into position to score the winning run. He drew his 5th walk of the year the following night.
I'll be watching closely to see whether Gomez has made a real change in his approach. If he thinks about his ABs the way Denard Span does, his superior tools should easily lead him to better results. Through the weekend, by the way, Span was hitting .304/.415/.348, 13 BB/15 K, 11/13 SB, hopefully raising his trade value if nothing else.
New Additions
Pat Neshek will have to go to the DL, and Nick Punto will be joining him. Neshek is likely done for the year, a huge blow to the depth of the bullpen. Bobby Korecky will likely stick around in the bullpen, at least until Scott Baker is ready to come back. In place of Punto the Twins recalled Alexi Casilla. While his BA has not been impressive at Rochester (.219), his OBP has been excellent (.350), especially considering how few hits he has. He has 18 BB/18 K through 32 games. He's got pretty good speed and a strong arm, so his ability should be adequate to replace Punto.
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Jim Leyland Knows Baseball
Twins 4, Tigers 1
Twins 7, Tigers 6
Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeep!
Ha! How satisfying to watch the Tigers bullpen get battered around a couple of times this weekend, after they'd been so good for 2 weeks. And how satisfying to see the Twins 'pen do their job, allowing just 1 R in 11 IP. The wheel keeps turning, and this weekend the Twins were on top.
The pitching staff faced considerable adversity this weekend. What a job by Brian Bass, earning his first Major League win with 4 terrific innings of relief after Scott Baker tweaked his groin. Again. He may have just won himself the opportunity to spot-start against Boston next weekend. Boof Bonser hung in there after a nightmare first inning in which the Tigers managed to find holes on good pitches, strike out on good pitches and reach anyway, run the bases. 45 pitches in the first, yet Boof still managed to complete 6 IP, allowing no further damage. (Amazingly, Brian Duensing of the Red Wings also gave up 6 runs in the first inning then pitched into the 6th, and he was facing the Tigers' AAA team. What are the chances?)
Joe Mauer carried the team all weekend, reaching at least twice in every game. His double off Kenny Rogers in the 4th on Sunday broke up the perfect game, and he came around to score a run. His single in the 7th was the difference in the game. I love it - but when are the homers coming?
As unlucky as the Twins were in the 1st inning, they got plenty of breaks themselves in the winning rally, starting with Carlos Guillen's fielding error on what should have been the 3rd out. Gomez chopped an IF hit, and after Harris' ground-rule double (the only bad break of the inning), Mauer's single bounced just out of reach of 3 fielders. 4 runs they had no business scoring - I love it!
The Wisdom of Jim Leyland
Jim Leyland wisely criticized his offense for allowing Bonser to stay in the game so long, calling attention to how the 5-pitch 2nd inning Bonser had let him off the hook. Sounds like something I would say.
Where he's gone wrong this season is in his use of Justin Verlander, who is so far showing splits reminiscent of Boof's 2007: he's dynamite for 5-6 IP, then goes out to start one more inning even though he's over 90 pitches and gets walloped.
Opening Day: 2 ER in 6 IP, faces 2 batters in the 7th, both score. 3.00 ERA becomes 6.00.
April 12th: 1 ER in 7.1 IP, then BB, HBP, single load the bases. At this point, he's at 102 pitches. He stays in for 3 more batters (including lefty AJ Pierzynski) and ends up giving up 6 ER in 7.2 IP. 1.23 ERA becomes 7.05.
April 27th: 2 ER in 5 IP, tagged for 4 ER in the 6th. 3.60 ERA becomes 9.54.
Saturday: 2 ER in 6 IP, he comes out for the 7th even though he's at 99 pitches. His old buddy Craig Monroe follows a 4-pitch walk to Delmon Young (that should have told Leyland something right there) with a 2-run HR. 3.00 ERA becomes 5.14.
His WHIP is excellent, then all of a sudden there are walks, hit batters, extra-base hits. And there's Leyland leaving him in there for 2 or 3 more hitters. If Verlander were playing for Gardy, I bet his ERA would be in the 4.00s instead of the 6.00s.
Leyland has been quoted as saying there will be a drastic shakeup to the Tigers lineup. Carlos Guillen has made 3 errors in 6 games at 3B, not a huge step up from Cabrera's 5 E in 14 games there. Meanwhile, Brandon Inge, an excellent defensive 3B, sits on the bench. The Jacque Jones/Marcus Thames platoon is the one consistently weak spot in their lineup.
If I were Leyland, I'd consider this: put Gary Sheffield in LF, make Cabrera the DH, bring Guillen back to 1B, and reinstate Inge as the regular 3B. I doubt Sheffield could be as much of a liability in left as Cabrera/Guillen have been at third. And I doubt Inge could be any more disappointing a hitter than Thames/Jones have been. He at least can get on base (14 BB in 101 PA vs. 12 BB in 135 PA for Thames/Jones). If the Tigers had solid defense with a legit on-base threat in the #9 spot, they might start to reach their potential.
Span vs. Gomez
Gomez had 2 ABs on Sunday with men in scoring position: with Punto on 3rd and one out in the 5th, he hit the ball straight up, and Punto was stranded. With runners at the corners and 2 out in the 7th, he hit the ball straight down, and legged it out for an RBI infield hit, extending the rally. I hope he learns something from that. His recent hot streak has improved his line to .271/.297/.374, a .671 OPS through 26 games. He's 13/14 stealing bases and has scored 17 R.
Span picked up his first XBH since spring training today. He has reached in every game he's started for Rochester this season. He's hitting .279/.404/.302, a .706 OPS through 11 games. He's 8/10 stealing bases and has scored 9 R.
Twins 7, Tigers 6
Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeep!
Ha! How satisfying to watch the Tigers bullpen get battered around a couple of times this weekend, after they'd been so good for 2 weeks. And how satisfying to see the Twins 'pen do their job, allowing just 1 R in 11 IP. The wheel keeps turning, and this weekend the Twins were on top.
The pitching staff faced considerable adversity this weekend. What a job by Brian Bass, earning his first Major League win with 4 terrific innings of relief after Scott Baker tweaked his groin. Again. He may have just won himself the opportunity to spot-start against Boston next weekend. Boof Bonser hung in there after a nightmare first inning in which the Tigers managed to find holes on good pitches, strike out on good pitches and reach anyway, run the bases. 45 pitches in the first, yet Boof still managed to complete 6 IP, allowing no further damage. (Amazingly, Brian Duensing of the Red Wings also gave up 6 runs in the first inning then pitched into the 6th, and he was facing the Tigers' AAA team. What are the chances?)
Joe Mauer carried the team all weekend, reaching at least twice in every game. His double off Kenny Rogers in the 4th on Sunday broke up the perfect game, and he came around to score a run. His single in the 7th was the difference in the game. I love it - but when are the homers coming?
As unlucky as the Twins were in the 1st inning, they got plenty of breaks themselves in the winning rally, starting with Carlos Guillen's fielding error on what should have been the 3rd out. Gomez chopped an IF hit, and after Harris' ground-rule double (the only bad break of the inning), Mauer's single bounced just out of reach of 3 fielders. 4 runs they had no business scoring - I love it!
The Wisdom of Jim Leyland
Jim Leyland wisely criticized his offense for allowing Bonser to stay in the game so long, calling attention to how the 5-pitch 2nd inning Bonser had let him off the hook. Sounds like something I would say.
Where he's gone wrong this season is in his use of Justin Verlander, who is so far showing splits reminiscent of Boof's 2007: he's dynamite for 5-6 IP, then goes out to start one more inning even though he's over 90 pitches and gets walloped.
Opening Day: 2 ER in 6 IP, faces 2 batters in the 7th, both score. 3.00 ERA becomes 6.00.
April 12th: 1 ER in 7.1 IP, then BB, HBP, single load the bases. At this point, he's at 102 pitches. He stays in for 3 more batters (including lefty AJ Pierzynski) and ends up giving up 6 ER in 7.2 IP. 1.23 ERA becomes 7.05.
April 27th: 2 ER in 5 IP, tagged for 4 ER in the 6th. 3.60 ERA becomes 9.54.
Saturday: 2 ER in 6 IP, he comes out for the 7th even though he's at 99 pitches. His old buddy Craig Monroe follows a 4-pitch walk to Delmon Young (that should have told Leyland something right there) with a 2-run HR. 3.00 ERA becomes 5.14.
His WHIP is excellent, then all of a sudden there are walks, hit batters, extra-base hits. And there's Leyland leaving him in there for 2 or 3 more hitters. If Verlander were playing for Gardy, I bet his ERA would be in the 4.00s instead of the 6.00s.
Leyland has been quoted as saying there will be a drastic shakeup to the Tigers lineup. Carlos Guillen has made 3 errors in 6 games at 3B, not a huge step up from Cabrera's 5 E in 14 games there. Meanwhile, Brandon Inge, an excellent defensive 3B, sits on the bench. The Jacque Jones/Marcus Thames platoon is the one consistently weak spot in their lineup.
If I were Leyland, I'd consider this: put Gary Sheffield in LF, make Cabrera the DH, bring Guillen back to 1B, and reinstate Inge as the regular 3B. I doubt Sheffield could be as much of a liability in left as Cabrera/Guillen have been at third. And I doubt Inge could be any more disappointing a hitter than Thames/Jones have been. He at least can get on base (14 BB in 101 PA vs. 12 BB in 135 PA for Thames/Jones). If the Tigers had solid defense with a legit on-base threat in the #9 spot, they might start to reach their potential.
Span vs. Gomez
Gomez had 2 ABs on Sunday with men in scoring position: with Punto on 3rd and one out in the 5th, he hit the ball straight up, and Punto was stranded. With runners at the corners and 2 out in the 7th, he hit the ball straight down, and legged it out for an RBI infield hit, extending the rally. I hope he learns something from that. His recent hot streak has improved his line to .271/.297/.374, a .671 OPS through 26 games. He's 13/14 stealing bases and has scored 17 R.
Span picked up his first XBH since spring training today. He has reached in every game he's started for Rochester this season. He's hitting .279/.404/.302, a .706 OPS through 11 games. He's 8/10 stealing bases and has scored 9 R.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Timely
Twins 3, White Sox 1
Twins 4, White Sox 3
I had a feeling the White Sox would be a little easier to handle this time around. These were last year's White Sox, occasionally hitting solo homers, but otherwise anemic at the plate. After sweeping the 2-game series, the Twins finish April just 1.5 games out of first place.
Kudos to Boof Bonser, who had by far his best stuff of the season, allowing 1 R on 6 H and 1 BB in 7 IP with 8 K. The strikeouts were the best sign - double the amount he'd had in any single game so far this year. He managed 4 quality starts in 5 tries without missing many bats; I can't wait to see what he can do if he gets in the groove.
Nick Blackburn was hit around a bit, but as he did against Cleveland, he got big outs when he needed them. He was also able to complete 7 IP, allowing 3 ER on 8 H and 2 BB with 4 K. He'll certainly be sticking around the rotation for awhile.
Offensively, the lineup didn't do very much: only 7 R on 14 H and 7 BB (a week's worth for this team). But the hitting was very timely. The guys who hit last night (Mauer, Kubel, Young) didn't do much today, and vice versa with Gomez and Morneau.
Managerial note:
Gardy, Gomez led off the 7th inning with a bunt single, then Brendan Harris sacrificed him to second on the first pitch. Harris has been one of the Twins' best hitters this month. Gomez is one of the best base-stealers in the league. Pierzynski is one of the worst catchers at throwing out base-stealers in the league. I bet the Sox could pitch-out and Gomez would still steal on AJ. Why pay Harris' AB to get a runner to second when you can get him there for free? Give him a couple pitches to run on. Harris can sacrifice him to 3rd if you want to play it that way.
Span vs. Gomez
Speaking of Gomez, I'm going to keep harping on this as long as their respective play merits it.
In the bottom of the 4th, with the Twins leading 3-2, Gomez was on 2nd with Mauer batting and spot-starter Nick Masset still on the mound. Masset is a reliever, and at 65 pitches was likely tiring. Mauer, the Twins' best hitter, was ahead in the count 3-1 against the right-hander. Gomez, perhaps the fastest guy in the league, could effortlessly score on any base hit to the outfield with 2 outs. Yet he chose that moment to steal 3rd base. He succeeded, the ball got away, and he was thrown out at the plate trying to score. How exciting!
Replays may have shown that he should have been called safe, but Gardy was so shocked that Gomez would attempt such a foolish play, even he couldn't find the strength to put up much of an argument. Gomez claimed that he saw a steal sign from the dugout. I would be astounded if any such sign was given by anyone with authority to give signs. Mauer started the 5th facing LHP Matt Thornton - he grounded out.
Meanwhile, in 7 games at AAA Rochester, Denard Span has 8 singles and 7 walks, for an OBP of .429. Yaaaawwwwnnnn. He also has 5 SBs, though he's managed to get himself picked off twice. I know, not as exciting as Gomez, but it's something...
Twins 4, White Sox 3
I had a feeling the White Sox would be a little easier to handle this time around. These were last year's White Sox, occasionally hitting solo homers, but otherwise anemic at the plate. After sweeping the 2-game series, the Twins finish April just 1.5 games out of first place.
Kudos to Boof Bonser, who had by far his best stuff of the season, allowing 1 R on 6 H and 1 BB in 7 IP with 8 K. The strikeouts were the best sign - double the amount he'd had in any single game so far this year. He managed 4 quality starts in 5 tries without missing many bats; I can't wait to see what he can do if he gets in the groove.
Nick Blackburn was hit around a bit, but as he did against Cleveland, he got big outs when he needed them. He was also able to complete 7 IP, allowing 3 ER on 8 H and 2 BB with 4 K. He'll certainly be sticking around the rotation for awhile.
Offensively, the lineup didn't do very much: only 7 R on 14 H and 7 BB (a week's worth for this team). But the hitting was very timely. The guys who hit last night (Mauer, Kubel, Young) didn't do much today, and vice versa with Gomez and Morneau.
Managerial note:
Gardy, Gomez led off the 7th inning with a bunt single, then Brendan Harris sacrificed him to second on the first pitch. Harris has been one of the Twins' best hitters this month. Gomez is one of the best base-stealers in the league. Pierzynski is one of the worst catchers at throwing out base-stealers in the league. I bet the Sox could pitch-out and Gomez would still steal on AJ. Why pay Harris' AB to get a runner to second when you can get him there for free? Give him a couple pitches to run on. Harris can sacrifice him to 3rd if you want to play it that way.
Span vs. Gomez
Speaking of Gomez, I'm going to keep harping on this as long as their respective play merits it.
In the bottom of the 4th, with the Twins leading 3-2, Gomez was on 2nd with Mauer batting and spot-starter Nick Masset still on the mound. Masset is a reliever, and at 65 pitches was likely tiring. Mauer, the Twins' best hitter, was ahead in the count 3-1 against the right-hander. Gomez, perhaps the fastest guy in the league, could effortlessly score on any base hit to the outfield with 2 outs. Yet he chose that moment to steal 3rd base. He succeeded, the ball got away, and he was thrown out at the plate trying to score. How exciting!
Replays may have shown that he should have been called safe, but Gardy was so shocked that Gomez would attempt such a foolish play, even he couldn't find the strength to put up much of an argument. Gomez claimed that he saw a steal sign from the dugout. I would be astounded if any such sign was given by anyone with authority to give signs. Mauer started the 5th facing LHP Matt Thornton - he grounded out.
Meanwhile, in 7 games at AAA Rochester, Denard Span has 8 singles and 7 walks, for an OBP of .429. Yaaaawwwwnnnn. He also has 5 SBs, though he's managed to get himself picked off twice. I know, not as exciting as Gomez, but it's something...
Thursday, April 24, 2008
No Support
A's 3, Twins 0
Poor Boof Bonser. Last night he gave the Twins his 4th quality start in 5 appearances, yet dropped to 1-4 on the season. The team has produced 7 runs in the 29 innings Bonser has pitched so far.
With Chad Gaudin doing a terrific job of keeping the Twins' hitters off-balance all night, this game was a perfect time to work some counts and elevate his pitch totals. Not in the game plan, apparently. Gaudin needed just 84 pitches to complete 7 innings. He threw only about 50 through the first 5 IP.
Denard Span didn't contribute much to Gaudin's stress level. He saw only 6 pitches in his three ABs, reaching on an infield single to start the game. Gardy sensibly pinch-hit Brendan Harris vs. LHP Alan Embree in the 8th, so Span didn't get another chance to reach a second time. That creates this interesting comparison as Cuddyer prepares to come off the DL tomorrow:
Gomez: .230/.247/.310 = .557 OPS
Span: .233/.303/.233 = .536 OPS
At least one of them will get a few more ABs with which to influence matters this afternoon. But if you had to have one of those guys as your CF/leadoff hitter, who would you prefer? Joe C. has made his choice, and Aaron Gleeman and Nick are also accutely aware of the problem. Hopefully the Twins will do something about it soon.
Poor Boof Bonser. Last night he gave the Twins his 4th quality start in 5 appearances, yet dropped to 1-4 on the season. The team has produced 7 runs in the 29 innings Bonser has pitched so far.
With Chad Gaudin doing a terrific job of keeping the Twins' hitters off-balance all night, this game was a perfect time to work some counts and elevate his pitch totals. Not in the game plan, apparently. Gaudin needed just 84 pitches to complete 7 innings. He threw only about 50 through the first 5 IP.
Denard Span didn't contribute much to Gaudin's stress level. He saw only 6 pitches in his three ABs, reaching on an infield single to start the game. Gardy sensibly pinch-hit Brendan Harris vs. LHP Alan Embree in the 8th, so Span didn't get another chance to reach a second time. That creates this interesting comparison as Cuddyer prepares to come off the DL tomorrow:
Gomez: .230/.247/.310 = .557 OPS
Span: .233/.303/.233 = .536 OPS
At least one of them will get a few more ABs with which to influence matters this afternoon. But if you had to have one of those guys as your CF/leadoff hitter, who would you prefer? Joe C. has made his choice, and Aaron Gleeman and Nick are also accutely aware of the problem. Hopefully the Twins will do something about it soon.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
The Blecch Brothers
Rays 7, Twins 3
I missed the game tonight while I was at Happy Hour with my co-workers. An immense number of co-workers, happily drinking together. Happy for 3 hours, actually. Happier than I'd have been listening to the game, safe to say.
I root for the Twins, you know. I want them to do well. To exceed expectations. To prove their doubters wrong. So it's demoralizing to come home and check the box score and find that two of the guys I was especially rooting for did this:
Boof Bonser: 4+ IP, 7 R, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 HR
Denard Span: 0-3, K, R, SB, 2 E
I don't have much context here. I don't know how hard Span hit the ball. I don't know if the hits Boof gave up were mostly bloopers and bleeders. I guess Span lost a ball in the bank of lights - we've seen outfielders struggle with that play for years. But the results are just flat-out yucky. Blecch. I'm sure they both can't wait to put this game behind them.
Interesting to see all 8 hits come from the first 5 hitters in the lineup. It was just the opposite in Bonser's last start in KC. Funny game.
Span vs. Gomez
Gomez good. Span bad. 'Nuff said.
I missed the game tonight while I was at Happy Hour with my co-workers. An immense number of co-workers, happily drinking together. Happy for 3 hours, actually. Happier than I'd have been listening to the game, safe to say.
I root for the Twins, you know. I want them to do well. To exceed expectations. To prove their doubters wrong. So it's demoralizing to come home and check the box score and find that two of the guys I was especially rooting for did this:
Boof Bonser: 4+ IP, 7 R, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 HR
Denard Span: 0-3, K, R, SB, 2 E
I don't have much context here. I don't know how hard Span hit the ball. I don't know if the hits Boof gave up were mostly bloopers and bleeders. I guess Span lost a ball in the bank of lights - we've seen outfielders struggle with that play for years. But the results are just flat-out yucky. Blecch. I'm sure they both can't wait to put this game behind them.
Interesting to see all 8 hits come from the first 5 hitters in the lineup. It was just the opposite in Bonser's last start in KC. Funny game.
Span vs. Gomez
Gomez good. Span bad. 'Nuff said.
Monday, April 14, 2008
Winter Ball
Twins 2, Royals 0
Royals 5, Twins 1
Frigid weather tends to favor pitchers, and with game-time wind chills at or below freezing all weekend, the pitchers had their way with the hitters - as long as they threw strikes.
Boof Bonser was excellent on Saturday night, mixing his pitches and staying ahead of the hitters. Though he did finally walk 2 batters, he was in total control on the balls that were put in play. Billy Butler's single in the 6th was the only hard-hit ball against Bonser in 6 innings. Unlike Monday, the bullpen set up the way Twins wanted, and Guerrier, Neshek and Nathan finished the shutout with a combined 3 IP, 2 H, 3 K and 39 pitches.
Not so good for Francisco Liriano on Sunday. Based on his spring training and the 2 minor league starts this month, it didn't seem like his command was there yet, and that was case Sunday as well. He was constantly behind the hitters, and when he did throw a fastball over it was hit hard. He couldn't finish 5 innings, walking 5 and allowing 6 hits while striking out 4. Hopefully some of it can be attributed to nerves at making his first Major League appearance in over a year, and some to discomfort at the cold weather. At this point, any outing he makes is another step in his recovery, so he's moving along.
Kubel played every game this weekend, rewarding the Twins with some big hits. Punto got just his second start of the season and performed very well, going 2-3. If he keeps it up, I'll be calling for him to replace Everett in the every-day lineup. It was a brutal weekend for Lamb, Young and Mauer - they'll need to break out this week if the Twins are to have a chance.
Span vs. Gomez
Neither one of them did a thing against Bannister on Sunday, but neither did anybody else in the lineup, so I'm not going to worry about that game. Saturday night was Span's first 2-hit game, and he drove in his second run. The 7th inning was where the difference between the two players really became clear. After Gardy astutely called for the hit-and-run on the first pitch to Brendan Harris following Kubel's leadoff single, Span came up with runners at the corners and none out. He hacked at a good fastball, took an off-speed pitch in the dirt, then hit the ball sharply on the ground up the middle with a nice, compact swing, driving in the run. After Punto's bunt single loaded the bases with none out, Gomez came up and hacked wildly at 3 straight sliders out of the zone. Easy strikeout, no further runs scored.
I won't be too hard on either of these guys yet with the sample sizes still so small (54 PA for Gomez, 18 for Span) - Gomez and the rest of the Twins' regulars will get a closer look this coming weekend. However, it's interesting to note that by the end of the second week of the season, after just 12 games, Gomez' hot start has evaporated, and his OBP stands today at .296. Not good for a leadoff hitter. And, because he's at the top of the lineup, Gomez has 6 more PA than any other Twins player. 1 extra PA every 2 games for a guy who gets on less than 30% of the time. Over the course of the season, that's a lot of bad ABs.
Looking at the series as a whole, I'm very pleased to see the Twins win 2 of 3 on the road against a divisional opponent despite scoring a total of 8 runs. Through the first 2 weeks, the Twins are 2nd in the AL in team pitching, making up for an anemic 11th-ranked offense. Funny how everybody was so nervous about the pitching heading into the season. I don't expect Livan to keep it up, of course, so the offense is definitely going to need to get going in order to keep things close.
Hopefully the Tigers will continue to suck for 2 more games.
Royals 5, Twins 1
Frigid weather tends to favor pitchers, and with game-time wind chills at or below freezing all weekend, the pitchers had their way with the hitters - as long as they threw strikes.
Boof Bonser was excellent on Saturday night, mixing his pitches and staying ahead of the hitters. Though he did finally walk 2 batters, he was in total control on the balls that were put in play. Billy Butler's single in the 6th was the only hard-hit ball against Bonser in 6 innings. Unlike Monday, the bullpen set up the way Twins wanted, and Guerrier, Neshek and Nathan finished the shutout with a combined 3 IP, 2 H, 3 K and 39 pitches.
Not so good for Francisco Liriano on Sunday. Based on his spring training and the 2 minor league starts this month, it didn't seem like his command was there yet, and that was case Sunday as well. He was constantly behind the hitters, and when he did throw a fastball over it was hit hard. He couldn't finish 5 innings, walking 5 and allowing 6 hits while striking out 4. Hopefully some of it can be attributed to nerves at making his first Major League appearance in over a year, and some to discomfort at the cold weather. At this point, any outing he makes is another step in his recovery, so he's moving along.
Kubel played every game this weekend, rewarding the Twins with some big hits. Punto got just his second start of the season and performed very well, going 2-3. If he keeps it up, I'll be calling for him to replace Everett in the every-day lineup. It was a brutal weekend for Lamb, Young and Mauer - they'll need to break out this week if the Twins are to have a chance.
Span vs. Gomez
Neither one of them did a thing against Bannister on Sunday, but neither did anybody else in the lineup, so I'm not going to worry about that game. Saturday night was Span's first 2-hit game, and he drove in his second run. The 7th inning was where the difference between the two players really became clear. After Gardy astutely called for the hit-and-run on the first pitch to Brendan Harris following Kubel's leadoff single, Span came up with runners at the corners and none out. He hacked at a good fastball, took an off-speed pitch in the dirt, then hit the ball sharply on the ground up the middle with a nice, compact swing, driving in the run. After Punto's bunt single loaded the bases with none out, Gomez came up and hacked wildly at 3 straight sliders out of the zone. Easy strikeout, no further runs scored.
I won't be too hard on either of these guys yet with the sample sizes still so small (54 PA for Gomez, 18 for Span) - Gomez and the rest of the Twins' regulars will get a closer look this coming weekend. However, it's interesting to note that by the end of the second week of the season, after just 12 games, Gomez' hot start has evaporated, and his OBP stands today at .296. Not good for a leadoff hitter. And, because he's at the top of the lineup, Gomez has 6 more PA than any other Twins player. 1 extra PA every 2 games for a guy who gets on less than 30% of the time. Over the course of the season, that's a lot of bad ABs.
Looking at the series as a whole, I'm very pleased to see the Twins win 2 of 3 on the road against a divisional opponent despite scoring a total of 8 runs. Through the first 2 weeks, the Twins are 2nd in the AL in team pitching, making up for an anemic 11th-ranked offense. Funny how everybody was so nervous about the pitching heading into the season. I don't expect Livan to keep it up, of course, so the offense is definitely going to need to get going in order to keep things close.
Hopefully the Tigers will continue to suck for 2 more games.
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