May Record: 15-13
Overall: 28-27, 2nd in AL Central by 2 games
Fitting that the Twins should conclude this month by losing an extra-inning game that would have been theirs in regulation had they played perfect defense. The 3 unearned runs that scored after Punto's error made it 23 total for May, adding 0.82 runs/game for the offense to overcome. The Twins lost 3 extra-inning games this month, and all three featured fielding or base-running errors which helped their opponent tie the score at the end of nine innings. Never mind the increased strain on the pitching staff caused by the poor defense - it costs wins as well. Had the Twins won two of those 3 extra-inning games, they'd be in first place, and would have had a great month at 17-11.
Thankfully, the offense came to life. This was especially apparent in the walks department: after finishing last in the AL in walks and OBP in April, the Twins came in 3rd in OBP for May. This led to a 2nd-place finish in runs scored, behind only Texas. The HRs picked up slightly, but the team went crazy with triples, and finished the month in 4th place in OPS.
Good thing the offense took a step forward, because the pitching slid back. The injury to Pat Neshek exposed the weaker links in the bullpen. Livan Hernandez predictably gravitated away from his exemplary April toward his recent norms. Boof Bonser started consistently giving up big innings, and has lost his spot in the rotation. Thankfully, the least experienced members of the rotation have proven to be worth the high prospect ratings they received, and they will soon be joined by Scott Baker (and possibly Liriano?).
For a young team with low expectations, any winning month has to be considered a success. As I write this, the Twins are within easy reach of first place, and remain several games ahead of pre-season AL Central favorites Cleveland and Detroit. If the Twins can continue to improve in June, the notion that this is a rebuilding year should be set aside, and the Twins should use their considerable cap-room and minor league assets to acquire an impact player or two for the second half.
On to evaluations of players with at least 35 PAs and pitchers with at least 7.2 IP:
Getting It Done
Justin Morneau - Just 9 of his 38 hits this month went for extra bases, but he led the regulars by playing in every game and hitting .336/.405/.496 for the month with 20 RBI and a 21/13 K/BB ratio.
Joe Mauer - The M&M boys are back! We're still waiting for Mauer's first HR, and he had just 5 XBH in May overall. But he reached base at a .442 clip, thanks to a .333 BA and 8/19 K/BB ratio. He was second in runs with 17.
Carlos Gomez - The 30/6 KK/BB rate is still a concern for a leadoff hitter, and his SB efficiency dropped to 6/10. But his approach at the plate has been much better, his K/BB rate is an improvement over April, and his 48 TB is second only to Morneau. He got his OBP up to .348, and if he can keep improving like this every month, he's going to be a good one.
Mike Lamb - He overcame his abysmal April to go .302/.340/.407 in May, and finally hit his first HR last week. He continues to be productive with men in scoring position, and has been serviceable at 3rd base.
Alexi Casilla - What a pleasant surprise he's been the last couple weeks. Though his average was horrendous in Rochester, he was walking about as much as he struck out, and that has continued with the Twins (7/8 K/BB). On top of that, he hit .340/.417/.520 with 2 HR and 13 RBI in just 50 ABs. He's made some costly errors, but his range is excellent. He's making a case for sticking in the Majors this time.
Joe Nathan - 5/6 in save opportunities, and the one he "blew" wasn't his fault at all. Too good to only get 11.2 IP.
Matt Guerrier - He gave up way too many walks (9), so his WHIP was a big problem for awhile, but he finished the month strong and wound up with a 2.12 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 17 IP. The Twins desperately need him to keep that up!
Kevin Slowey - After coming up just short (in terms of IP) of quality starts in his first 3 starts after returning from the DL, Slowey put together 2 very good starts to finish the month. He allowed just 1 ER in 15 IP in those starts, ending May with a 2.87 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 31.1 IP.
Nick Blackburn - He'll give up his hits (38 in 33.1 IP), but his control (5 BB in 5 GS) and his ability to get ground balls keeps him out of trouble and pitching deep into games. Hope his nose is OK.
Glen Perkins - He didn't have it Friday night against the Yankees, but his first 4 starts were terrific. If he can keep giving the Twins 4 out of 5 good starts, he'll have a place in the rotation.
Bobby Korecky - I'm not sure how long there will be room for him with the Twins, but he's done everything they've asked of him so far. His 0.91 WHIP was tops in the 'pen for the month.
So Far, So Good
Livan Hernandez - The 2.43 K/9 plus the 1.57 WHIP are a recipe for disaster, yet Livan has so far produced reasonably well. He averaged well over 6 IP/start, and he often manages to get out of the trouble he gets himself into. June is historically his worst month, so look out...
Jesse Crain - Like Livan, Crain managed to pitch effectively despite an atrocious 2.14 WHIP and 3.86 K/9. He'll need to drastically cut down on base-runners if he's to remain useful. However, for his 2nd month back from major shoulder surgery, not bad.
Juan Rincon - Way too many walks (12 in 15.1 IP) killed his WHIP (1.70), but he was mostly able to limit the damage, putting up a 4.12 ERA for the month with 0 HR allowed.
Brian Bass - Why is someone with a 6.61 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in this category? Well, if you throw out his appearance in Detroit (1.1 IP, 7 ER on 7 H), his overall numbers for May aren't too shabby: 3.00 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 15 IP. Rookies are going to have bad games every now and then, but on the whole, Bass has done his long-relief job well.
Need to Pick It Up
Dennys Reyes - A lot of hits fell in against him this month. He was frequently used in situations that exposed his weaknesses (any time he pitches to a RHB, for example). Hopefully Breslow can take some of that pressure off, and Reyes will have better luck this month.
Boof Bonser - Boof just couldn't stay out of the big inning this month, and it cost him his spot in the rotation. Hopefully, he can be an asset to the bullpen.
Delmon Young - May was an improvement over April in terms of OBP (16/11 K/BB ratio) and power (4 2B, 3 3B), but we all had reason to expect even more. His defense has been terribly scattered for the last couple weeks.
Jason Kubel - He's showing some signs of life, and didn't get a whole lot of ABs early in the month. Still, his OPS should be comfortably in the .800s, not barely over .700.
Brendan Harris - Thank goodness he's drawing walks, or he'd be completely useless. .217/.320/.289, and his terrible defensive range is evident whether he's playing 2B or SS. I wish they'd kept Bartlett.
Craig Monroe - He hit 4 HR in limited action, and a couple of them were huge. But he struck out in 1/3 of his ABs, and the BA fell back to its 2007 levels (.216).
Michael Cuddyer - Lots of Ks (23) and not that many XBHs (7). 17 RBI for the month, but with Gomez, Casilla, Mauer and Morneau constantly on base, it could have been a lot better.
Matt Tolbert - He was only batting .212/.257/.303 before he foolishly destroyed his thumb by diving into first base.
Adam Everett - 6 of his 9 hits were for extra bases! That's about the only good thing I can say about him. Not that sorry he's not in the lineup every day - not sure I want to see him back when he's healed.
Monday, June 2, 2008
Friday, May 30, 2008
Streaking
Twins 4, Royals 3 (12 innings)
Twins 9, Royals 8 (10 innings)
Twins 5, Royals 1
What an amazing road trip. The Twins went 5-1 despite allowing as many runs as they scored (36). Always a good thing to concentrate the sucking into a single game!
I feel really bad for the Royals and their fans. We've been there, at least those of us who loved the Twins through the '90's. That the Royals renaissance has yet to take hold must be unbearable for their faithful. And after showing signs of being much improved just a couple weeks ago, to now be in the midst of yet another double-digit losing streak, how awful. And to have that streak prolonged after being comfortably ahead with 2 out in the 9th inning must be utterly soul-crushing. No wonder Guillen snapped.
Delmon Young made things a lot harder than they needed to be. Clearly, his attempt at a sliding catch in the 9th on Tuesday was ill-advised. I do appreciate the enthusiasm, but I would have flipped my lid if another game had been thrown away by defensive ineptitude. Incredibly, he was even worse on Wednesday. Kudos for Gardy for having the good sense to finally sit him down and end his undeserved consecutive-games streak. With that out of the way, he can more easily sit out several times over the remainder of the season.
Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey both took shutouts into the 9th inning. I know the Royals haven't exactly been lighting it up lately, but one has to be impressed with their progress this season. Livan Hernandez, meanwhile, got blown to bits once again, by the afore-mentioned team that hasn't been lighting it up. Who's eating the innings now? While the Twins talk of sending Boof to the bullpen and potentially releasing Bass or Rincon to make room for Scott Baker, I wonder when the conversation will turn to releasing Livan. Surely, the optimum time to trade him has passed us by.
Michael Cuddyer has been in a horrible slump, but it was easy to see why the hits were so difficult to come by on Tuesday and Wednesday. He went 3 for 11 in the two games (good for him, lately), the hits coming on fastballs knee-high on the outside corner that he poked into right or right-center. The Royals pitchers did a very good job of spotting their fastball in that location, then mixing in sliders or splitters that start in that location before diving out of the zone. With two strikes, it's difficult for Cuddy not to try to protect out there, but he ends up looking bad when the breaking balls land in the dirt. He may have to determinedly take 2 strikes in order to try to force pitchers to come back up and over the plate.
Gardy looked pretty good on Wednesday night, didn't he? He received a ton of criticism over the last week or so for using Joe Nathan so sparingly in close or extra-inning games. I agreed that after throwing just 10 pitches in the 9th on Tuesday, it would have been sensible to send him back out for the 11th. The Royals used their closer for 2 innings and 31 pitches. For some reason, that made him absolutely unavailable for Wednesday, and when the 9th spun out of control, they didn't go to Soria. I doubt he would have needed more than 3 or 4 pitches to dispatch Craig Monroe. Anyway, Monroe came through, and there was Nathan, fresh as a daisy, to collect the save for the Twins in the bottom of the 10th.
Carlos Gomez has had a much better May. I'll go over the numbers after Saturday's game is complete, but I don't think there's much he can do in the next 2 games to diminish his accomplishments this month. His overall approach at the plate has been better, and he's played much better defense. He's still got a ways to go, so I hope the trend continues throughout the summer. I won't say putting him on the team out of spring training was the right decision, but it doesn't look like such a bad decision right now.
Twins 9, Royals 8 (10 innings)
Twins 5, Royals 1
What an amazing road trip. The Twins went 5-1 despite allowing as many runs as they scored (36). Always a good thing to concentrate the sucking into a single game!
I feel really bad for the Royals and their fans. We've been there, at least those of us who loved the Twins through the '90's. That the Royals renaissance has yet to take hold must be unbearable for their faithful. And after showing signs of being much improved just a couple weeks ago, to now be in the midst of yet another double-digit losing streak, how awful. And to have that streak prolonged after being comfortably ahead with 2 out in the 9th inning must be utterly soul-crushing. No wonder Guillen snapped.
Delmon Young made things a lot harder than they needed to be. Clearly, his attempt at a sliding catch in the 9th on Tuesday was ill-advised. I do appreciate the enthusiasm, but I would have flipped my lid if another game had been thrown away by defensive ineptitude. Incredibly, he was even worse on Wednesday. Kudos for Gardy for having the good sense to finally sit him down and end his undeserved consecutive-games streak. With that out of the way, he can more easily sit out several times over the remainder of the season.
Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey both took shutouts into the 9th inning. I know the Royals haven't exactly been lighting it up lately, but one has to be impressed with their progress this season. Livan Hernandez, meanwhile, got blown to bits once again, by the afore-mentioned team that hasn't been lighting it up. Who's eating the innings now? While the Twins talk of sending Boof to the bullpen and potentially releasing Bass or Rincon to make room for Scott Baker, I wonder when the conversation will turn to releasing Livan. Surely, the optimum time to trade him has passed us by.
Michael Cuddyer has been in a horrible slump, but it was easy to see why the hits were so difficult to come by on Tuesday and Wednesday. He went 3 for 11 in the two games (good for him, lately), the hits coming on fastballs knee-high on the outside corner that he poked into right or right-center. The Royals pitchers did a very good job of spotting their fastball in that location, then mixing in sliders or splitters that start in that location before diving out of the zone. With two strikes, it's difficult for Cuddy not to try to protect out there, but he ends up looking bad when the breaking balls land in the dirt. He may have to determinedly take 2 strikes in order to try to force pitchers to come back up and over the plate.
Gardy looked pretty good on Wednesday night, didn't he? He received a ton of criticism over the last week or so for using Joe Nathan so sparingly in close or extra-inning games. I agreed that after throwing just 10 pitches in the 9th on Tuesday, it would have been sensible to send him back out for the 11th. The Royals used their closer for 2 innings and 31 pitches. For some reason, that made him absolutely unavailable for Wednesday, and when the 9th spun out of control, they didn't go to Soria. I doubt he would have needed more than 3 or 4 pitches to dispatch Craig Monroe. Anyway, Monroe came through, and there was Nathan, fresh as a daisy, to collect the save for the Twins in the bottom of the 10th.
Carlos Gomez has had a much better May. I'll go over the numbers after Saturday's game is complete, but I don't think there's much he can do in the next 2 games to diminish his accomplishments this month. His overall approach at the plate has been better, and he's played much better defense. He's still got a ways to go, so I hope the trend continues throughout the summer. I won't say putting him on the team out of spring training was the right decision, but it doesn't look like such a bad decision right now.
Monday, May 26, 2008
Lamb Slaughters Tigers
Twins 9, Tigers 4
Tigers 19, Twins 3
Twins 6, Tigers 1
That's what I love about baseball. Your team can endure its most lop-sided defeat of the year, and yet you can still feel good when the weekend is over. Though the Twins were battered for 24 runs over the 3 games (8.31 ERA!), they did all their sucking in the middle game, and came away series winners. Though they've allowed 16 more runs than they've scored this season, they're 25-25, and only 3 games out of first place.
The Twins have pretty well settled who will be leaving the rotation when Scott Baker is ready to come off the DL in about 10 days. Kevin Slowey finally got the last out of the 6th inning, and has now averaged almost 5.2 IP with a 3.63 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 4 starts since returning from the DL. Glen Perkins was great in his first 3 starts, but topped them all on Sunday. After allowing just 1 ER in 7.2 IP, he is now averaging over 6.1 IP with a 2.77 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. As for Boof Bonser, well, it hadn't been going very well, and Saturday was as bad as it can be. He allowed 8 ER in 3+ IP; over his last 4 starts, he's averaging just under 5 IP with a 10.37 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. This is not a difficult decision - Boof will almost certainly be sent to the bullpen.
To make room, someone else will have to go. That will be either Brian Bass or Juan Rincon, who joined Boof before the firing squad on Saturday. While Bass' line (1.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 H) may be more spectacularly horrid, he came into the game with a respectable 3.90 ERA, and had been doing a pretty solid job in the long-relief roll up to that point. Juan Rincon (2.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 2 BB) was brought in to bail Bass out, and failed to do it. In his last 9 appearances, he's had just one perfect inning, walking 11 and allowing 10 H in 11.2 IP. That's all since Neshek went down and the Twins needed him to step up. One of those two is going to be DFA by the end of next week.
Dennys Reyes had a rough weekend as well, although I'd like to put his outings in context. It was always doubtful that he would be successful outside of the situational lefty role. In this series, he was asked to face 7 righties and 1 lefty. He got the lefty out. The righties went 4 for 6 with a BB. On Friday, though he was unable to retire anyone, he didn't pitch badly. The hits he allowed were:
*a 2-hop grounder 1 inch fair and 1 inch over the glove of Mike Lamb,
*a soft liner off the end of the bat that barely had enough mustard to clear the infield,
*a booming triple on a 3-2 pitch after Pudge had fouled off 4 good 2-strike pitches.
15 pitches, only 1 was poorly located. 93% were good! Still, let's try to keep him facing just lefties as much as possible.
Offensively, the star of the show was Mike Lamb, who went 5-7 with 4R, 2B, 3B, 2 BB and his first HR as a Twin. He still has time to cement his place in the lineup if he can keep raising his average over the next 2 weeks. If not, Brian Buscher is playing too well in Rochester to be denied much longer. And Jason Kubel delivered a clutch grand slam to win Sunday's game, capping a weekend in which he went 3-8 with a BB and 2 R. With Craig Monroe just 1 for his last 24 and a bunch of RHP taking the hill in the next few days, I suspect Kubel will get plenty of chances to build on solid numbers over the past week.
Tigers 19, Twins 3
Twins 6, Tigers 1
That's what I love about baseball. Your team can endure its most lop-sided defeat of the year, and yet you can still feel good when the weekend is over. Though the Twins were battered for 24 runs over the 3 games (8.31 ERA!), they did all their sucking in the middle game, and came away series winners. Though they've allowed 16 more runs than they've scored this season, they're 25-25, and only 3 games out of first place.
The Twins have pretty well settled who will be leaving the rotation when Scott Baker is ready to come off the DL in about 10 days. Kevin Slowey finally got the last out of the 6th inning, and has now averaged almost 5.2 IP with a 3.63 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 4 starts since returning from the DL. Glen Perkins was great in his first 3 starts, but topped them all on Sunday. After allowing just 1 ER in 7.2 IP, he is now averaging over 6.1 IP with a 2.77 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. As for Boof Bonser, well, it hadn't been going very well, and Saturday was as bad as it can be. He allowed 8 ER in 3+ IP; over his last 4 starts, he's averaging just under 5 IP with a 10.37 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. This is not a difficult decision - Boof will almost certainly be sent to the bullpen.
To make room, someone else will have to go. That will be either Brian Bass or Juan Rincon, who joined Boof before the firing squad on Saturday. While Bass' line (1.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 H) may be more spectacularly horrid, he came into the game with a respectable 3.90 ERA, and had been doing a pretty solid job in the long-relief roll up to that point. Juan Rincon (2.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 2 BB) was brought in to bail Bass out, and failed to do it. In his last 9 appearances, he's had just one perfect inning, walking 11 and allowing 10 H in 11.2 IP. That's all since Neshek went down and the Twins needed him to step up. One of those two is going to be DFA by the end of next week.
Dennys Reyes had a rough weekend as well, although I'd like to put his outings in context. It was always doubtful that he would be successful outside of the situational lefty role. In this series, he was asked to face 7 righties and 1 lefty. He got the lefty out. The righties went 4 for 6 with a BB. On Friday, though he was unable to retire anyone, he didn't pitch badly. The hits he allowed were:
*a 2-hop grounder 1 inch fair and 1 inch over the glove of Mike Lamb,
*a soft liner off the end of the bat that barely had enough mustard to clear the infield,
*a booming triple on a 3-2 pitch after Pudge had fouled off 4 good 2-strike pitches.
15 pitches, only 1 was poorly located. 93% were good! Still, let's try to keep him facing just lefties as much as possible.
Offensively, the star of the show was Mike Lamb, who went 5-7 with 4R, 2B, 3B, 2 BB and his first HR as a Twin. He still has time to cement his place in the lineup if he can keep raising his average over the next 2 weeks. If not, Brian Buscher is playing too well in Rochester to be denied much longer. And Jason Kubel delivered a clutch grand slam to win Sunday's game, capping a weekend in which he went 3-8 with a BB and 2 R. With Craig Monroe just 1 for his last 24 and a bunch of RHP taking the hill in the next few days, I suspect Kubel will get plenty of chances to build on solid numbers over the past week.
Friday, May 23, 2008
3rd Split: 7-9
So far it's been 1 step back, 2 steps forward, and 1 step back, arriving at 24-24 through 48 games. While that's not awful for a team that is 7th in the AL in hitting, and 8th in pitching, the record would look a bit better were the team in the middle of the pack in fielding. Instead of 13th (wha?).
Poor defense was the story in this split. The Twins committed 21 errors in their first 32 games - not good, but downright tidy compared to the 17 they made in the last 16 games. Those errors led to 14 unearned runs. And those numbers do not account for every dropped 3rd strike or overthrow. They certainly don't include any of the base-running mistakes that killed some rallies. If I had to zero in on 2 games where the defense cost a win, I'd single out the 6-5 loss to the Blue Jays and the 8-7 extra-inning loss to the Rangers. In each case, had a reliever (Crain and Guerrier, respectively) made a routine throw to 3rd base (and we're talking less than 50 feet, here), the Jays game would have gone to extras and the Rangers game would have been won. It was very much within the Twins' control to have won 1 or 2 more games in this split.
Starting pitching continued to be a strong point. The Twins got 9 Quality Starts in the 16 games, and came 1 out short of 2 more. As predicted, Kevin Slowey (3.63 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) out-pitched Livan Hernandez (5.30, 1.66 - anybody want him? He's 6-2!) over this stretch. Nick Blackburn (3.32, 1.42) continues to pitch deep into games with better results than Livan, and Glen Perkins has been a revelation (3.44, 1.20, 12/2 K/BB). Alas, Boof Bonser is headed the other way (7.72, 1.47), and is in jeopardy of losing his spot in the rotation when Baker or Liriano are ready to return.
Pat Neshek was lost for the season in the first game of this little cross-section, and the bullpen has been a mess ever since. While many members have managed to put up acceptable ERAs, only Joe Nathan and Bobby Korecky have consistently thrown strikes. Well, Dennys Reyes has thrown strikes, but they've all been hit. While the rotation remained stingy with walks, Rincon, Guerrier, Crain and Bass issued 32 BB in 38.2 IP. Not sustainable.
On the other side, the offense has picked up their patience - in fact, it was common to see them draw 5+ walks in a game. They averaged over 4 BB/game over this stretch, and the 67 BB in this split equalled the number the Twins drew in their first 32 games, raising the team OBP to .319 for the season. Carlos Gomez and Jason Kubel have doubled their walk rates and, not surprisingly, both now have OBPs far north of .300 for the month of May. Gardy has wisely diminished the playing time of the struggling Brendan Harris and Craig Monroe, and Alexi Casilla is off to a good start in his first week as a starter (.273/.370/.455, HR, 7 RBI - 2 E though).
The other welcome development has come in the slugging department. Though they continue to hit HR at an anemic pace, the Twins unleashed an onslaught of triples during this split, led by Delmon Young's 3. After hitting just 6 triples in the first 32 games, the Twins have hit 8 in the last 16, most of those coming in just over a week's time. Throw in the walks, and the Twins have managed to pull their OPS out of the bottom 4 in the AL.
The next 16 games feature a 7-game home stand against the Yankees and Orioles, and 9 road games against division rivals Detroit, KC and Chicago. The current winning percentages of those opponents are not impressive - can the Twins continue their improvement and take advantage?
Bold prediction: at least 2 veteran players will be dismissed before the 10th of June.
Poor defense was the story in this split. The Twins committed 21 errors in their first 32 games - not good, but downright tidy compared to the 17 they made in the last 16 games. Those errors led to 14 unearned runs. And those numbers do not account for every dropped 3rd strike or overthrow. They certainly don't include any of the base-running mistakes that killed some rallies. If I had to zero in on 2 games where the defense cost a win, I'd single out the 6-5 loss to the Blue Jays and the 8-7 extra-inning loss to the Rangers. In each case, had a reliever (Crain and Guerrier, respectively) made a routine throw to 3rd base (and we're talking less than 50 feet, here), the Jays game would have gone to extras and the Rangers game would have been won. It was very much within the Twins' control to have won 1 or 2 more games in this split.
Starting pitching continued to be a strong point. The Twins got 9 Quality Starts in the 16 games, and came 1 out short of 2 more. As predicted, Kevin Slowey (3.63 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) out-pitched Livan Hernandez (5.30, 1.66 - anybody want him? He's 6-2!) over this stretch. Nick Blackburn (3.32, 1.42) continues to pitch deep into games with better results than Livan, and Glen Perkins has been a revelation (3.44, 1.20, 12/2 K/BB). Alas, Boof Bonser is headed the other way (7.72, 1.47), and is in jeopardy of losing his spot in the rotation when Baker or Liriano are ready to return.
Pat Neshek was lost for the season in the first game of this little cross-section, and the bullpen has been a mess ever since. While many members have managed to put up acceptable ERAs, only Joe Nathan and Bobby Korecky have consistently thrown strikes. Well, Dennys Reyes has thrown strikes, but they've all been hit. While the rotation remained stingy with walks, Rincon, Guerrier, Crain and Bass issued 32 BB in 38.2 IP. Not sustainable.
On the other side, the offense has picked up their patience - in fact, it was common to see them draw 5+ walks in a game. They averaged over 4 BB/game over this stretch, and the 67 BB in this split equalled the number the Twins drew in their first 32 games, raising the team OBP to .319 for the season. Carlos Gomez and Jason Kubel have doubled their walk rates and, not surprisingly, both now have OBPs far north of .300 for the month of May. Gardy has wisely diminished the playing time of the struggling Brendan Harris and Craig Monroe, and Alexi Casilla is off to a good start in his first week as a starter (.273/.370/.455, HR, 7 RBI - 2 E though).
The other welcome development has come in the slugging department. Though they continue to hit HR at an anemic pace, the Twins unleashed an onslaught of triples during this split, led by Delmon Young's 3. After hitting just 6 triples in the first 32 games, the Twins have hit 8 in the last 16, most of those coming in just over a week's time. Throw in the walks, and the Twins have managed to pull their OPS out of the bottom 4 in the AL.
The next 16 games feature a 7-game home stand against the Yankees and Orioles, and 9 road games against division rivals Detroit, KC and Chicago. The current winning percentages of those opponents are not impressive - can the Twins continue their improvement and take advantage?
Bold prediction: at least 2 veteran players will be dismissed before the 10th of June.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Bad Breaks
Twins 11, Rangers 4
Rangers 10, Twins 1
Rangers 8, Twins 7 (10 innings)
Ugh. Another potential winning homestand thrown away by poor defense. Just as giving away base runners proved fatal against a good pitching team like the Blue Jays, giving extra outs is fatal against a good hitting team like the Rangers. The Twins gave Texas 10 unearned runs over the 4 games. Had they played solid defense, they would have won 3 of 4 (without having to go to extra innings), and might have kept Wednesday's game close.
Twins pitchers repeatedly failed to pick up their defenders. Bonser, Perkins and Blackburn were all cruising for 5-6 IP, but once their fielders let a play slip, they were all quickly chased from the game. They need to learn to bear down and keep the ball out of the middle of the plate when they get into tough situations.
Alexi Casilla had a terrific series at the plate (.333/.412/.600, HR, 6 RBI, 5 R)while Brendan Harris sat in the dog house, but his 2 errors led to 7 of the unearned runs.
Delmon Young kept the XBH parade going for the first couple games of the series, but he had a brutal afternoon on Thursday, going 0-5 and stranding 7 base-runners. He hit into 2 DPs, including one with the bases loaded in the 1st.
I'm not sure why Craig Monroe (0-4, 2 K) got the start today. The Twins will be facing 2 lefties over the weekend in Detroit, so he'll most likely get 2 starts there. I'm also not sure why Justin Morneau got the day off from the field, with a scheduled off day coming on Monday. Michael Cuddyer made a costly error at 1st in his place, and also gave up an infield hit in the 6th (which led to a run) which an actual first baseman might have had an easier time fielding.
The Rangers are a stupendous hitting team, so I don't blame any of the pitchers for giving up hits (the back-door slider Hamilton hit out for the game-winner today was a little up, but it's ridiculous how far he hit it to the opposit field), but the Twins generally had a good approach against their atrocious pitching staff, drawing 20 walks during the 4 games. It's weird to say it, but the piece of the Twins' game that has been the most lacking this month has been defense.
Span vs. Gomez
Gomez had, in my view, his best all-around game of the season today, going 4-5 with a HR, 3 RBI, 2 R, and a sweet diving catch in CF for the 2nd straight game. For the series, he went .467/.529/.867, reaching base in each game, raising his season line to .286/.318/.440.
I've realized that my problem with Gomez isn't so much his approach at the plate (which still needs a lot of work), but the fact that that approach is so glaringly wrong for the leadoff spot. He's drawn 4 more walks (+ 2 HBP) in May than April, but he'll need to show that kind of improvement every month before his isolated discipline is anywhere near where it needs to be to justify getting the most PA of anyone on the team. However, if he took his exact numbers to the bottom of the lineup (anywhere 7-9), I couldn't complain, particularly when he continues to outhit Young.
Span is unquestionably the better leadoff hitter right now. Despite falling off his absurd pace of the past week with an 0-14 over his last 3 games (including 6 K), his AAA line is still a terrific .327/.431/.471. Unfortunately, he's out of the picture for 3-4 weeks, thanks to a broken finger he suffered while attempting a bunt on Tuesday night. That leaves all my eggs precariously in Go-Go's basket.
How exciting (gulp)!
Rangers 10, Twins 1
Rangers 8, Twins 7 (10 innings)
Ugh. Another potential winning homestand thrown away by poor defense. Just as giving away base runners proved fatal against a good pitching team like the Blue Jays, giving extra outs is fatal against a good hitting team like the Rangers. The Twins gave Texas 10 unearned runs over the 4 games. Had they played solid defense, they would have won 3 of 4 (without having to go to extra innings), and might have kept Wednesday's game close.
Twins pitchers repeatedly failed to pick up their defenders. Bonser, Perkins and Blackburn were all cruising for 5-6 IP, but once their fielders let a play slip, they were all quickly chased from the game. They need to learn to bear down and keep the ball out of the middle of the plate when they get into tough situations.
Alexi Casilla had a terrific series at the plate (.333/.412/.600, HR, 6 RBI, 5 R)while Brendan Harris sat in the dog house, but his 2 errors led to 7 of the unearned runs.
Delmon Young kept the XBH parade going for the first couple games of the series, but he had a brutal afternoon on Thursday, going 0-5 and stranding 7 base-runners. He hit into 2 DPs, including one with the bases loaded in the 1st.
I'm not sure why Craig Monroe (0-4, 2 K) got the start today. The Twins will be facing 2 lefties over the weekend in Detroit, so he'll most likely get 2 starts there. I'm also not sure why Justin Morneau got the day off from the field, with a scheduled off day coming on Monday. Michael Cuddyer made a costly error at 1st in his place, and also gave up an infield hit in the 6th (which led to a run) which an actual first baseman might have had an easier time fielding.
The Rangers are a stupendous hitting team, so I don't blame any of the pitchers for giving up hits (the back-door slider Hamilton hit out for the game-winner today was a little up, but it's ridiculous how far he hit it to the opposit field), but the Twins generally had a good approach against their atrocious pitching staff, drawing 20 walks during the 4 games. It's weird to say it, but the piece of the Twins' game that has been the most lacking this month has been defense.
Span vs. Gomez
Gomez had, in my view, his best all-around game of the season today, going 4-5 with a HR, 3 RBI, 2 R, and a sweet diving catch in CF for the 2nd straight game. For the series, he went .467/.529/.867, reaching base in each game, raising his season line to .286/.318/.440.
I've realized that my problem with Gomez isn't so much his approach at the plate (which still needs a lot of work), but the fact that that approach is so glaringly wrong for the leadoff spot. He's drawn 4 more walks (+ 2 HBP) in May than April, but he'll need to show that kind of improvement every month before his isolated discipline is anywhere near where it needs to be to justify getting the most PA of anyone on the team. However, if he took his exact numbers to the bottom of the lineup (anywhere 7-9), I couldn't complain, particularly when he continues to outhit Young.
Span is unquestionably the better leadoff hitter right now. Despite falling off his absurd pace of the past week with an 0-14 over his last 3 games (including 6 K), his AAA line is still a terrific .327/.431/.471. Unfortunately, he's out of the picture for 3-4 weeks, thanks to a broken finger he suffered while attempting a bunt on Tuesday night. That leaves all my eggs precariously in Go-Go's basket.
How exciting (gulp)!
Monday, May 19, 2008
Rochester to the Rescue
Twins 7, Rangers 6 (12 innings)
What game of firsts! Alexi Casilla hit his first HR, a 3-run shot, and has more homers than Delmon Young or Joe Mauer. Bobby Korecky got his first W and, because Gardy threw the kitchen sink at the Rangers in the 9th, his first hit. And new call-up Howie Clark delivered the game-winning hit. Three guys who weren't on the team a few weeks ago came in to clean up a big mess. It feels good now, but this game would have been agonizing to lose.
Boof Bonser recovered from 3 straight shaky starts to get the Twins into the 7th inning with just 2 R allowed on 3 H with 5 K. All 3 hits were for extra bases, including 2 HR, but they were solo shots, and the Twins were leading 5-2. After allowing 2 singles to put runners at 1st and 2nd with one out in the 7th, Rick Anderson came out to talk to Boof. He promptly got the come-backer he needed to start an inning-ending double-play. Unfortunately, he made a terrible throw, and everyone was safe. The next pitch was drilled into left-center for a 2-run single, and the Rangers were back in the game, and Boof was out. Had the Twins lost, they could have once again blamed a failure to execute a fundamental play.
The relief pitching was at turns brilliant and ugly. Obviously, Korecky was magnificent, rescuing Juan Rincon from a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the 11th. Rincon allowed a double and a walk, and after starting the next hitter with a ball, Anderson went out to remind him that this was not the time to be tentative. When the next pitch missed, Gardy was so ticked that he tried to take Rincon out mid-batter - which is not allowed; once the coach visits, the pitcher has to finish that AB (you learn something new every day!). Guerrier was terrific in saving Bonser from a jam in the 7th, but then he and Dennys Reyes got knocked around for 2 runs. Joe Nathan needed just 5 pitches to get through the 10th. I guess you don't want to use up your closer in the first game of a series, but I doubt he was tired, and could have come out for the 11th.
Oh well, it all worked out.
What game of firsts! Alexi Casilla hit his first HR, a 3-run shot, and has more homers than Delmon Young or Joe Mauer. Bobby Korecky got his first W and, because Gardy threw the kitchen sink at the Rangers in the 9th, his first hit. And new call-up Howie Clark delivered the game-winning hit. Three guys who weren't on the team a few weeks ago came in to clean up a big mess. It feels good now, but this game would have been agonizing to lose.
Boof Bonser recovered from 3 straight shaky starts to get the Twins into the 7th inning with just 2 R allowed on 3 H with 5 K. All 3 hits were for extra bases, including 2 HR, but they were solo shots, and the Twins were leading 5-2. After allowing 2 singles to put runners at 1st and 2nd with one out in the 7th, Rick Anderson came out to talk to Boof. He promptly got the come-backer he needed to start an inning-ending double-play. Unfortunately, he made a terrible throw, and everyone was safe. The next pitch was drilled into left-center for a 2-run single, and the Rangers were back in the game, and Boof was out. Had the Twins lost, they could have once again blamed a failure to execute a fundamental play.
The relief pitching was at turns brilliant and ugly. Obviously, Korecky was magnificent, rescuing Juan Rincon from a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the 11th. Rincon allowed a double and a walk, and after starting the next hitter with a ball, Anderson went out to remind him that this was not the time to be tentative. When the next pitch missed, Gardy was so ticked that he tried to take Rincon out mid-batter - which is not allowed; once the coach visits, the pitcher has to finish that AB (you learn something new every day!). Guerrier was terrific in saving Bonser from a jam in the 7th, but then he and Dennys Reyes got knocked around for 2 runs. Joe Nathan needed just 5 pitches to get through the 10th. I guess you don't want to use up your closer in the first game of a series, but I doubt he was tired, and could have come out for the 11th.
Oh well, it all worked out.
Mile Low
Twins 4, Rockies 2
Rockies 3, Twins 2
Rockies 6, Twins 2
My wife and I were furiously working on curtains for the nursery this weekend, so I didn't get to watch any of the Twins/Rockies "action" after Friday night. My condolences to all the poor bastards who did. How excruciating to see so many men left on base, while quality pitching was being wasted. It's amazing to me that these two teams combined for just 19 runs in 3 games. Neither one is playing very well right now.
The Twins went 3 for 8 with runners in scoring position on Friday (+2 SF). Backed by Nick Blackburn's strongest start in almost a month (7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 5 K), decent relief pitching (OK except for the walks) and a Kamikaze catch from Gomez to end the game (I never said he couldn't go get it out there!), they came away with a win.
I was peeking at the scoreboard every now and then on Saturday. "Wait a minute," I thought, "is that Livan Hernandez with a no-hitter into the 6th inning? The Rockies must be in worse shape than I thought!" Amazing how quickly that 0 R on 0 H turned into 3 R on 8 H, huh? Still, given his typical run support, that should have been win number 7 for Livan. (Anybody want him?) It should be noted that the Rockies started each of their last 3 innings of this game with XBH - all of those guys scored. The Twins' offense managed just 2 R despite putting 12 men on base, going 1 for 7 with men in scoring position and stranding 9.
On Sunday, the Twins began each of their first 2 innings of batting with XBH, and had a 1-out triple in the 3rd, but none of them scored. 0 for 8 with RISP right there. For the game, they went 1 for 12. Kevin Slowey came one out short of a Quality Start, but allowed the last 4 batters to reach (after allowing only 4 to reach in the first 5.2 IP). Once again, the penultimate hitter ground out a long AB (10-pitch walk to Brad Hawpe) - maybe something to watch out for in the future.
The best news of the weekend came from Delmon Young, who doubled his season XBH total from 4 to 8, raising his season line to .287/.328/.348. A couple more series like that, and maybe we can all relax about his power potential.
Rockies 3, Twins 2
Rockies 6, Twins 2
My wife and I were furiously working on curtains for the nursery this weekend, so I didn't get to watch any of the Twins/Rockies "action" after Friday night. My condolences to all the poor bastards who did. How excruciating to see so many men left on base, while quality pitching was being wasted. It's amazing to me that these two teams combined for just 19 runs in 3 games. Neither one is playing very well right now.
The Twins went 3 for 8 with runners in scoring position on Friday (+2 SF). Backed by Nick Blackburn's strongest start in almost a month (7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 5 K), decent relief pitching (OK except for the walks) and a Kamikaze catch from Gomez to end the game (I never said he couldn't go get it out there!), they came away with a win.
I was peeking at the scoreboard every now and then on Saturday. "Wait a minute," I thought, "is that Livan Hernandez with a no-hitter into the 6th inning? The Rockies must be in worse shape than I thought!" Amazing how quickly that 0 R on 0 H turned into 3 R on 8 H, huh? Still, given his typical run support, that should have been win number 7 for Livan. (Anybody want him?) It should be noted that the Rockies started each of their last 3 innings of this game with XBH - all of those guys scored. The Twins' offense managed just 2 R despite putting 12 men on base, going 1 for 7 with men in scoring position and stranding 9.
On Sunday, the Twins began each of their first 2 innings of batting with XBH, and had a 1-out triple in the 3rd, but none of them scored. 0 for 8 with RISP right there. For the game, they went 1 for 12. Kevin Slowey came one out short of a Quality Start, but allowed the last 4 batters to reach (after allowing only 4 to reach in the first 5.2 IP). Once again, the penultimate hitter ground out a long AB (10-pitch walk to Brad Hawpe) - maybe something to watch out for in the future.
The best news of the weekend came from Delmon Young, who doubled his season XBH total from 4 to 8, raising his season line to .287/.328/.348. A couple more series like that, and maybe we can all relax about his power potential.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Misplaced
Blue Jays 6, Twins 5
Blue Jays 3, Twins 2 (11 innings)
Wellllll, that wasn't so good, was it?
After impressively taking 3 of 4 from the defending World Series champs, the Twins managed to turn this into a losing home stand. And though the Blue Jays pitched pretty well and had many long ABs, the Twins really have their own misplays to blame for the losses. Bad throws, missed fly balls, imprudent baserunning and pitching that was too tentative at times were rampant in the series. Had the Twins been able to clean up even one or two misplays, they likely would have come away with at least one win.
The hitting was actually rather timely. The Twins came back from early deficits in each game and did a good job of forcing the Jays' starters to throw pitches (6.1 IP, for Halladay, is knocking him out early). Sure, a lot of people were stranded, but it usually came on a ball hit well, but right to where a defender could track it down. Another foot here or there and the run column might have looked pretty close to what it was against Boston. Most encouragingly, this series saw the resurgence of Jason Kubel, who, despite his head-down running that got him thrown out at the plate, has re-established himself as someone the Twins can look to to get on base and drive in runs.
Span vs. Gomez vs. Young
I'm not going to quibble too much with Gomez today. Obviously, it was a shame that he got himself caught on the basepaths last night immediately after his speed had forced a hit and error. But I found myself wishing that he was involved in the tight game this afternoon. When he came in late, I was hoping his speed could make a difference somewhere. He gave the ball quite a ride on a 2-strike pitch to end the 10th, and it took a pretty good over-the-shoulder catch by Kevin Mench to keep the game tied.
Every day this week, I check the Rochester box score and throw up my hands in amazement that Denard Span has managed to improve upon his already stratospheric OBP. Tonight he was 2-3 with a BB, raising his season line to a preposterous .369/.470/.536, a 1.006 OPS! He also had an OF assist, though he was caught stealing for the 3rd time. While I suppose Gomez isn't really playing badly enough for Span to take his job over, let me make another proposal:
Delmon Young is hitting .263/.309/.296 for a pathetic .605 OPS. He has played every game this season, and is showing no potential to drive the ball. While Span isn't going to remind anyone of Manny Ramirez, he can surely perform better than Young. Now, with Young being a Rookie-of-the-Year runner-up, he won't be sent to the minors, but he doesn't merit an everyday job, either. So how about a Span/Gomez/Young platoon, with each of them getting about 2/3 of the ABs between LF and CF? The bullpen would probably have to drop to 11 pitchers, which is a dicey proposition at this time, but it's something to think about. Span is just playing too well to stay in AAA much longer.
Speaking of playing well in AAA, Francisco Liriano needed just 93 pitches to complete 8 IP in tonight's game, allowing 7 H and only 1 BB with 4 K. Not enough Ks, but a 1.00 WHIP! Deep into the game! Let's give him a couple more starts to be sure, but it seems like he may finally be starting to put it together.
On to Colorado - how far can Justin Morneau hit the ball at altitude?
Blue Jays 3, Twins 2 (11 innings)
Wellllll, that wasn't so good, was it?
After impressively taking 3 of 4 from the defending World Series champs, the Twins managed to turn this into a losing home stand. And though the Blue Jays pitched pretty well and had many long ABs, the Twins really have their own misplays to blame for the losses. Bad throws, missed fly balls, imprudent baserunning and pitching that was too tentative at times were rampant in the series. Had the Twins been able to clean up even one or two misplays, they likely would have come away with at least one win.
The hitting was actually rather timely. The Twins came back from early deficits in each game and did a good job of forcing the Jays' starters to throw pitches (6.1 IP, for Halladay, is knocking him out early). Sure, a lot of people were stranded, but it usually came on a ball hit well, but right to where a defender could track it down. Another foot here or there and the run column might have looked pretty close to what it was against Boston. Most encouragingly, this series saw the resurgence of Jason Kubel, who, despite his head-down running that got him thrown out at the plate, has re-established himself as someone the Twins can look to to get on base and drive in runs.
Span vs. Gomez vs. Young
I'm not going to quibble too much with Gomez today. Obviously, it was a shame that he got himself caught on the basepaths last night immediately after his speed had forced a hit and error. But I found myself wishing that he was involved in the tight game this afternoon. When he came in late, I was hoping his speed could make a difference somewhere. He gave the ball quite a ride on a 2-strike pitch to end the 10th, and it took a pretty good over-the-shoulder catch by Kevin Mench to keep the game tied.
Every day this week, I check the Rochester box score and throw up my hands in amazement that Denard Span has managed to improve upon his already stratospheric OBP. Tonight he was 2-3 with a BB, raising his season line to a preposterous .369/.470/.536, a 1.006 OPS! He also had an OF assist, though he was caught stealing for the 3rd time. While I suppose Gomez isn't really playing badly enough for Span to take his job over, let me make another proposal:
Delmon Young is hitting .263/.309/.296 for a pathetic .605 OPS. He has played every game this season, and is showing no potential to drive the ball. While Span isn't going to remind anyone of Manny Ramirez, he can surely perform better than Young. Now, with Young being a Rookie-of-the-Year runner-up, he won't be sent to the minors, but he doesn't merit an everyday job, either. So how about a Span/Gomez/Young platoon, with each of them getting about 2/3 of the ABs between LF and CF? The bullpen would probably have to drop to 11 pitchers, which is a dicey proposition at this time, but it's something to think about. Span is just playing too well to stay in AAA much longer.
Speaking of playing well in AAA, Francisco Liriano needed just 93 pitches to complete 8 IP in tonight's game, allowing 7 H and only 1 BB with 4 K. Not enough Ks, but a 1.00 WHIP! Deep into the game! Let's give him a couple more starts to be sure, but it seems like he may finally be starting to put it together.
On to Colorado - how far can Justin Morneau hit the ball at altitude?
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Worn Out
Blue Jays 5, Twins 3
This game was great example of how working counts leads to victory. Both starting pitchers went 5.2 IP. Kevin Slowey needed 107 pitches to get there. Jays starter Litsch needed just 70! The Blue Jays relentlessly battled Slowey until he made mistakes. Both of the walks he allowed came on full counts. Several ABs lasted more than 5 pitches, capped by Scott Rolen's 15-pitch marathon that took Slowey over 100 pitches and set up the 2-out HR by Matt Stairs. Overall, Slowey did a nice job, throwing 2/3 of his pitches for strikes, and coming just 1 out short of a Quality Start.
The grinding continued when the bullpen took over, as the Jays forced 37 pitches from Matt Guerrier in 1.1 IP. The only efficient pitcher was Dennys Reyes, who threw just 3 pitches to 2 batters. Unfortunately, both batters got hits, and he finally allowed his first ER of the season. Brian Bass did a pretty good job in his 2 IP, allowing only 2 BB.
The offense couldn't sustain any rallies tonight. It didn't help that Monroe and Young didn't hit. Monroe's 3 K night may finally bring everyone back to reality regarding his likely effectiveness vs. RHP. What a thrill to see Jason Kubel get a pinch-hit HR! Is he ready to break out? The Twins need him hitting the way he did in the 2nd half last year if they're to have any hope of staying in the Central Race.
Span vs. Gomez
2-4 with a HR seems like a pretty good night for Gomez, but his 2 outs were both Ks, bringing his season total to 39. He also uncorked his 5th error when he needlessly sent a throw on a one-out single into the dugout. Still, his line for the season is now .277/.306/.418 for a .724 OPS. As Nick pointed out earlier, since his benching in Oakland, he's hit .345/.390/.582, with a 13/3 K/BB ratio, and 7 SB in 9 attempts, but he's made 4 errors. Still, clearly an improvement.
Yet I'm amazed again to check the Rochester box score and see that Denard Span is performing even better. Tonight he went 2-3 with a HR, BB, Sac bunt, and SB. His AAA line is now .338/.440/.468 for a .906 OPS(!) Since Gomez' benching in Oakland, Span's combined numbers are .348/.451/.493, with a 16/13 K/BB ratio, 10 SB in 12 attempts, and just 1 error. How much longer can he be denied a spot somewhere in the Major Leagues? If you want to argue that Gomez is still playing better, you certainly can't deny that Span is outplaying Delmon Young.
This game was great example of how working counts leads to victory. Both starting pitchers went 5.2 IP. Kevin Slowey needed 107 pitches to get there. Jays starter Litsch needed just 70! The Blue Jays relentlessly battled Slowey until he made mistakes. Both of the walks he allowed came on full counts. Several ABs lasted more than 5 pitches, capped by Scott Rolen's 15-pitch marathon that took Slowey over 100 pitches and set up the 2-out HR by Matt Stairs. Overall, Slowey did a nice job, throwing 2/3 of his pitches for strikes, and coming just 1 out short of a Quality Start.
The grinding continued when the bullpen took over, as the Jays forced 37 pitches from Matt Guerrier in 1.1 IP. The only efficient pitcher was Dennys Reyes, who threw just 3 pitches to 2 batters. Unfortunately, both batters got hits, and he finally allowed his first ER of the season. Brian Bass did a pretty good job in his 2 IP, allowing only 2 BB.
The offense couldn't sustain any rallies tonight. It didn't help that Monroe and Young didn't hit. Monroe's 3 K night may finally bring everyone back to reality regarding his likely effectiveness vs. RHP. What a thrill to see Jason Kubel get a pinch-hit HR! Is he ready to break out? The Twins need him hitting the way he did in the 2nd half last year if they're to have any hope of staying in the Central Race.
Span vs. Gomez
2-4 with a HR seems like a pretty good night for Gomez, but his 2 outs were both Ks, bringing his season total to 39. He also uncorked his 5th error when he needlessly sent a throw on a one-out single into the dugout. Still, his line for the season is now .277/.306/.418 for a .724 OPS. As Nick pointed out earlier, since his benching in Oakland, he's hit .345/.390/.582, with a 13/3 K/BB ratio, and 7 SB in 9 attempts, but he's made 4 errors. Still, clearly an improvement.
Yet I'm amazed again to check the Rochester box score and see that Denard Span is performing even better. Tonight he went 2-3 with a HR, BB, Sac bunt, and SB. His AAA line is now .338/.440/.468 for a .906 OPS(!) Since Gomez' benching in Oakland, Span's combined numbers are .348/.451/.493, with a 16/13 K/BB ratio, 10 SB in 12 attempts, and just 1 error. How much longer can he be denied a spot somewhere in the Major Leagues? If you want to argue that Gomez is still playing better, you certainly can't deny that Span is outplaying Delmon Young.
Like Magic
Twins 7, Red Sox 3
Looking at the scoreboard, one might think that the Twins really beat up the Red Sox tonight, that Livan Hernandez recovered from a shaky first inning to baffle them the rest of the way.
Not exactly.
True, he gave up all 3 runs on 4 hits in the 1st, then scattered 6 hits and a walk over the remaining 5 IP, earning yet another quality start. But in the 2nd and 3rd innings, sandwiched around the 2 hits and a walk he actually gave up, were 4 balls absolutely scorched right at people: Morneau made a diving stop on Sean Casey, Dustin Pedroia's liner landed right in Livan's glove, Manny Ramirez hit a liner to deep CF that got to Gomez in about 2 seconds, and Varitek ended the 3rd with a liner to deep left. Boston swung the bats well enough to have 4 more hits off Livan, and heaven knows how many more runs would have resulted.
But, at the end of the day, he's tied for he AL lead in wins at 6-1, and his 3.90 ERA looks pretty nice.
Anybody want him?
Juan Rincon did a nice job in relief, allowing just a walk in 2 IP. He was aided by the very special catch Cuddyer made in right field - Pedroia's liner bounced off Micheal's glove, the top of his head, the bill of his cap, and back into his glove. (Pedroia had to be shaking his head after this game.)
I loved the offensive approach vs. Clay Buchholz. He's been struggling with his control, and the Twins decided not to be too aggressive with him. Sure enough, he rewarded their patience with 5 BB in 4.1 IP. Another fine game for Craig Monroe (2 RBI 2B and 2 BB) despite a K - we may never get to see Jason Kubel again. Delmon Young had 2 H and 2 RBI (despite a K). Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer went 5/10 with 2 BB and 5 R.
Wins like this are exciting, and very encouraging, but I'm not sure winning is sustainable with the overall quality of play of the Twins right now. Livan is very hittable, the offense doesn't hit a lot of XBH, doesn't walk enough, strikes out too much (especially Monroe, Young, Harris and Gomez). I hope this is apparent to Bill Smith, and that he intends to use some of the organization's resources to upgrade various positions as the season moves along.
Span vs. Gomez
Gomez went 1 for 4, and his hit was just like the one from Friday - knee-high on the outside corner, driven into RF. Love it. 2 more K, though, giving him 37 on the season, 4th in the AL. The company he keeps in the top 10 are all swing for the fences guys like Jim Thome, Richie Sexson, and Jack Cust. Since his magical Cycle night in Chicago, he's reached base 6 times in 23 PA (.261 OBP) and struck out 8 times.
Meanwhile, every night I check the Red Wings box score, and every night, Denard Span has gotten on base at least once. Last night, he had his best night of the year, going 3-5 with a 2B and HR. That raised his line to .324/.425/.419, an .844 OPS. If the team really prefers Gomez for 2008, then they need to start shopping Span - with those numbers, he should be worth a decent IF prospect.
Looking at the scoreboard, one might think that the Twins really beat up the Red Sox tonight, that Livan Hernandez recovered from a shaky first inning to baffle them the rest of the way.
Not exactly.
True, he gave up all 3 runs on 4 hits in the 1st, then scattered 6 hits and a walk over the remaining 5 IP, earning yet another quality start. But in the 2nd and 3rd innings, sandwiched around the 2 hits and a walk he actually gave up, were 4 balls absolutely scorched right at people: Morneau made a diving stop on Sean Casey, Dustin Pedroia's liner landed right in Livan's glove, Manny Ramirez hit a liner to deep CF that got to Gomez in about 2 seconds, and Varitek ended the 3rd with a liner to deep left. Boston swung the bats well enough to have 4 more hits off Livan, and heaven knows how many more runs would have resulted.
But, at the end of the day, he's tied for he AL lead in wins at 6-1, and his 3.90 ERA looks pretty nice.
Anybody want him?
Juan Rincon did a nice job in relief, allowing just a walk in 2 IP. He was aided by the very special catch Cuddyer made in right field - Pedroia's liner bounced off Micheal's glove, the top of his head, the bill of his cap, and back into his glove. (Pedroia had to be shaking his head after this game.)
I loved the offensive approach vs. Clay Buchholz. He's been struggling with his control, and the Twins decided not to be too aggressive with him. Sure enough, he rewarded their patience with 5 BB in 4.1 IP. Another fine game for Craig Monroe (2 RBI 2B and 2 BB) despite a K - we may never get to see Jason Kubel again. Delmon Young had 2 H and 2 RBI (despite a K). Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer went 5/10 with 2 BB and 5 R.
Wins like this are exciting, and very encouraging, but I'm not sure winning is sustainable with the overall quality of play of the Twins right now. Livan is very hittable, the offense doesn't hit a lot of XBH, doesn't walk enough, strikes out too much (especially Monroe, Young, Harris and Gomez). I hope this is apparent to Bill Smith, and that he intends to use some of the organization's resources to upgrade various positions as the season moves along.
Span vs. Gomez
Gomez went 1 for 4, and his hit was just like the one from Friday - knee-high on the outside corner, driven into RF. Love it. 2 more K, though, giving him 37 on the season, 4th in the AL. The company he keeps in the top 10 are all swing for the fences guys like Jim Thome, Richie Sexson, and Jack Cust. Since his magical Cycle night in Chicago, he's reached base 6 times in 23 PA (.261 OBP) and struck out 8 times.
Meanwhile, every night I check the Red Wings box score, and every night, Denard Span has gotten on base at least once. Last night, he had his best night of the year, going 3-5 with a 2B and HR. That raised his line to .324/.425/.419, an .844 OPS. If the team really prefers Gomez for 2008, then they need to start shopping Span - with those numbers, he should be worth a decent IF prospect.
Monday, May 12, 2008
The Power of Pink
Twins 7, Red Sox 6
Red Sox 5, Twins 2
Twins 9, Red Sox 8
It was a bit of a hectic weekend for me. My parents came to visit for Mother's Day, so I spent most of my time with them. Though they are Twins fans as well, we didn't get a chance to watch/listen to any of this weekend's games after about the 6th inning on Friday. Looking up what I've been able to about the games, I'm very pleased that the Twins will have a chance to win this series against arguably the best team in the AL. At worst, it'll be a split, and that would be fine, too.
It was too bad that Boof got lit up on Friday, especially because his defense let him down a bit. Because Mauer lost track of Kevin Youkilis' swinging third strike in the dirt, the Sox were able to score 2 runs they didn't deserve in the second (2nd straight game Boof has had an inning extended on a wild pitch K). In the 5th, the leadoff single deflected off Boof's leg was played with far too little urgency by Harris, I thought. Delmon Young took a terrible route to Mike Lowell's 2-run double - he might have had an opportunity to catch it.
Too bad that Perkins' debut was diminished by the back-to-back HR leading off the 7th, turning a sterling start (6 IP, 1 ER) into merely Quality. Blackburn had what has lately turned into a pretty typical game, allowing 4 R on 9 H in 6 IP. He hurt himself by hitting 2 straight batters to leadoff the 3rd inning. His defense hurt him with a throwing error on the 2nd half of a potentially inning-ending DP in the 4th. Lots of baserunners, but his line could have been better in spite of them.
The bullpen pitched well on Friday, but got touched for 2 R in 3 IP on Saturday and 4 R in 3 IP on Sunday. Only Dennys Reyes escaped unscathed - even Joe Nathan got dinged for 2 R. Still, as their 5+ runs/game in the series proves, the Sox are going to get their hits and runs - they lead the league in BA, OBP and SLG by a healthy margin, and they're 3rd in SB to top it off.
The key to this weekend's wins was that the Twins scored plenty of runs themselves. Mike Lamb, Adam Everett and Craig Monroe all (finally) contributed key hits. I'm not sure what Jason Kubel was doing in the lineup on Friday vs. LHP Lester. He came into the game 4-24 vs. lefties. Between Lester and reliever Okajima, that line is now 4-28. If he's not careful, Kubel is going to play himself right out of the lineup.
Perhaps most satisfying was the performance from Carlos Gomez. He reached base in every game, delivered what I consider to be his most impressive hit of the season (a line-drive RBI single to right on a pitch knee-high on the outside corner - that's right, go with it!), and extended the Twins' improbable comeback against elite closer John Papelbon in the most improbable way - he laid off 3 straight pitches out of the zone after falling behind 1-2. He then stole second to get himself into position to score the winning run. He drew his 5th walk of the year the following night.
I'll be watching closely to see whether Gomez has made a real change in his approach. If he thinks about his ABs the way Denard Span does, his superior tools should easily lead him to better results. Through the weekend, by the way, Span was hitting .304/.415/.348, 13 BB/15 K, 11/13 SB, hopefully raising his trade value if nothing else.
New Additions
Pat Neshek will have to go to the DL, and Nick Punto will be joining him. Neshek is likely done for the year, a huge blow to the depth of the bullpen. Bobby Korecky will likely stick around in the bullpen, at least until Scott Baker is ready to come back. In place of Punto the Twins recalled Alexi Casilla. While his BA has not been impressive at Rochester (.219), his OBP has been excellent (.350), especially considering how few hits he has. He has 18 BB/18 K through 32 games. He's got pretty good speed and a strong arm, so his ability should be adequate to replace Punto.
Red Sox 5, Twins 2
Twins 9, Red Sox 8
It was a bit of a hectic weekend for me. My parents came to visit for Mother's Day, so I spent most of my time with them. Though they are Twins fans as well, we didn't get a chance to watch/listen to any of this weekend's games after about the 6th inning on Friday. Looking up what I've been able to about the games, I'm very pleased that the Twins will have a chance to win this series against arguably the best team in the AL. At worst, it'll be a split, and that would be fine, too.
It was too bad that Boof got lit up on Friday, especially because his defense let him down a bit. Because Mauer lost track of Kevin Youkilis' swinging third strike in the dirt, the Sox were able to score 2 runs they didn't deserve in the second (2nd straight game Boof has had an inning extended on a wild pitch K). In the 5th, the leadoff single deflected off Boof's leg was played with far too little urgency by Harris, I thought. Delmon Young took a terrible route to Mike Lowell's 2-run double - he might have had an opportunity to catch it.
Too bad that Perkins' debut was diminished by the back-to-back HR leading off the 7th, turning a sterling start (6 IP, 1 ER) into merely Quality. Blackburn had what has lately turned into a pretty typical game, allowing 4 R on 9 H in 6 IP. He hurt himself by hitting 2 straight batters to leadoff the 3rd inning. His defense hurt him with a throwing error on the 2nd half of a potentially inning-ending DP in the 4th. Lots of baserunners, but his line could have been better in spite of them.
The bullpen pitched well on Friday, but got touched for 2 R in 3 IP on Saturday and 4 R in 3 IP on Sunday. Only Dennys Reyes escaped unscathed - even Joe Nathan got dinged for 2 R. Still, as their 5+ runs/game in the series proves, the Sox are going to get their hits and runs - they lead the league in BA, OBP and SLG by a healthy margin, and they're 3rd in SB to top it off.
The key to this weekend's wins was that the Twins scored plenty of runs themselves. Mike Lamb, Adam Everett and Craig Monroe all (finally) contributed key hits. I'm not sure what Jason Kubel was doing in the lineup on Friday vs. LHP Lester. He came into the game 4-24 vs. lefties. Between Lester and reliever Okajima, that line is now 4-28. If he's not careful, Kubel is going to play himself right out of the lineup.
Perhaps most satisfying was the performance from Carlos Gomez. He reached base in every game, delivered what I consider to be his most impressive hit of the season (a line-drive RBI single to right on a pitch knee-high on the outside corner - that's right, go with it!), and extended the Twins' improbable comeback against elite closer John Papelbon in the most improbable way - he laid off 3 straight pitches out of the zone after falling behind 1-2. He then stole second to get himself into position to score the winning run. He drew his 5th walk of the year the following night.
I'll be watching closely to see whether Gomez has made a real change in his approach. If he thinks about his ABs the way Denard Span does, his superior tools should easily lead him to better results. Through the weekend, by the way, Span was hitting .304/.415/.348, 13 BB/15 K, 11/13 SB, hopefully raising his trade value if nothing else.
New Additions
Pat Neshek will have to go to the DL, and Nick Punto will be joining him. Neshek is likely done for the year, a huge blow to the depth of the bullpen. Bobby Korecky will likely stick around in the bullpen, at least until Scott Baker is ready to come back. In place of Punto the Twins recalled Alexi Casilla. While his BA has not been impressive at Rochester (.219), his OBP has been excellent (.350), especially considering how few hits he has. He has 18 BB/18 K through 32 games. He's got pretty good speed and a strong arm, so his ability should be adequate to replace Punto.
Friday, May 9, 2008
Up and Down
Twins 13, White Sox 1
White 6, Twins 2
As the runs started pouring in during the 9th inning on Wednesday night, I thought to myself, shouldn't we be saving some of those for tomorrow? Sure enough, those 6 tacked-on runs could have helped the Twins a lot more on Thursday afternoon.
Livan Hernandez had a ridiculously good game, the likes of which I don't expect to see very often again. Anybody want him? I have a feeling the Red Sox are going to be a little harder on him next week.
Kevin Slowey made his first appearance since the first week of the season, and was very sharp for 4 innings. He gave up 3 XBH in the 5th, including 2 HR. I would have liked to see him come out for the 6th, see if he could make the adjustment and rally for the Quality Start; he was only at 83 pitches. However, the ball was definitely up on both homers, so maybe the 6th would have been a disaster.
Speaking of disasters, Pat Neshek's elbow "tweak" is of great concern. The Twins can ill-afford to be without their door-slamming setup man for very long.
The Cycle
Oh, for Heaven's sake.
It was fore-ordained that, hours after I ripped him again, Gomez would lead-off the game with a HR (just like last time). His statistically spectacular evening prompted some bloggers I respect very much to ask rhetorically: "Still want to send him down?"
Yep.
Some impartial observers at ESPN have the right perspective, especially this from Jayson Stark:
On the one hand, as he proved Wednesday, he's a cycle waiting to happen. On the other, it took that cycle to nudge his on-base percentage to a measly .306. In terms of defense, one scout said, "I don't see a whole lot of difference between him and Torii [Hunter], other than name and reputation." But in terms of offense, the same scout said that he's "like a toolbox without a key."
You can't say it much better than that. If the fact that he hit for the cycle demonstrated that he had found the key, I'd change my mind about him. But he's the same guy he's been all spring. The hits just happened to fall in for him.
Of the four hits he collected on Wednesday night, the HR was the most impressive: Gomez quickly turned on a knee-high, inside cutter (probably didn't cut enough for Buerhle's taste), and hit it really hard. The triple was an absolutely flat changeup up in the zone, and he crushed it. He was sawed off on the double, the LF took a bad route to the ball, and it would have been a single if he hadn't dove for it. The single was deflected by the pitcher, and the dugout waited with baited breath for the official scorer's decision. A better fielding pitcher makes that an easy come-backer.
Gomez smacked a couple of poorly located pitches, and he had a couple of bleeders fall in. And there's your cycle. No indication that he's made any adjustments, no reason to think another big slump isn't in his future. Meanwhile, there's a guy at AAA who gets on base 44% of the time and hits the cutoff man. Until I see a change in his approach, I don't think Gomez is the most effective guy in the system to be getting more ABs than any other player. No matter how good he looks when he's hot.
White 6, Twins 2
As the runs started pouring in during the 9th inning on Wednesday night, I thought to myself, shouldn't we be saving some of those for tomorrow? Sure enough, those 6 tacked-on runs could have helped the Twins a lot more on Thursday afternoon.
Livan Hernandez had a ridiculously good game, the likes of which I don't expect to see very often again. Anybody want him? I have a feeling the Red Sox are going to be a little harder on him next week.
Kevin Slowey made his first appearance since the first week of the season, and was very sharp for 4 innings. He gave up 3 XBH in the 5th, including 2 HR. I would have liked to see him come out for the 6th, see if he could make the adjustment and rally for the Quality Start; he was only at 83 pitches. However, the ball was definitely up on both homers, so maybe the 6th would have been a disaster.
Speaking of disasters, Pat Neshek's elbow "tweak" is of great concern. The Twins can ill-afford to be without their door-slamming setup man for very long.
The Cycle
Oh, for Heaven's sake.
It was fore-ordained that, hours after I ripped him again, Gomez would lead-off the game with a HR (just like last time). His statistically spectacular evening prompted some bloggers I respect very much to ask rhetorically: "Still want to send him down?"
Yep.
Some impartial observers at ESPN have the right perspective, especially this from Jayson Stark:
On the one hand, as he proved Wednesday, he's a cycle waiting to happen. On the other, it took that cycle to nudge his on-base percentage to a measly .306. In terms of defense, one scout said, "I don't see a whole lot of difference between him and Torii [Hunter], other than name and reputation." But in terms of offense, the same scout said that he's "like a toolbox without a key."
You can't say it much better than that. If the fact that he hit for the cycle demonstrated that he had found the key, I'd change my mind about him. But he's the same guy he's been all spring. The hits just happened to fall in for him.
Of the four hits he collected on Wednesday night, the HR was the most impressive: Gomez quickly turned on a knee-high, inside cutter (probably didn't cut enough for Buerhle's taste), and hit it really hard. The triple was an absolutely flat changeup up in the zone, and he crushed it. He was sawed off on the double, the LF took a bad route to the ball, and it would have been a single if he hadn't dove for it. The single was deflected by the pitcher, and the dugout waited with baited breath for the official scorer's decision. A better fielding pitcher makes that an easy come-backer.
Gomez smacked a couple of poorly located pitches, and he had a couple of bleeders fall in. And there's your cycle. No indication that he's made any adjustments, no reason to think another big slump isn't in his future. Meanwhile, there's a guy at AAA who gets on base 44% of the time and hits the cutoff man. Until I see a change in his approach, I don't think Gomez is the most effective guy in the system to be getting more ABs than any other player. No matter how good he looks when he's hot.
Thursday, May 8, 2008
2nd Split: 10-6
The Twins made up for a lackluster start to the season over the past 3 weeks, thanks mainly to 7 straight wins at the Dome. I hope that's an indication that the home cookin' is back in full swing - they're going to need every advantage they can get. The next 7 games against the Red Sox and Blue Jays will be a good test of how far the Dome-field advantage will carry the Twins.
The offense picked up a bit, but it's still wildly inconsistent. The Twins were shut out 3 times in their 6 losses this month, and were 1-hit in another. Most of the offense came in three blowout games: 12-6 vs. Texas, 11-1 vs. Detroit, and 13-1 vs. Chicago. The 36 runs the Twins scored in those 3 games nearly equaled the 38 runs they scored in the other 13.
The most consistent players during this stretch have been:
Boof Bonser - Pitched at least 6 innings in each start, with a 3.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. His strikeout rate has increased over his last couple starts - after just 14 K in his first 5 starts, he has 13 in his last 2.
Joe Mauer - Hit .383/.491/.553 with 6 doubles and a triple. He reached base at least once in each game he played.
Joe Nathan - Collected 6 saves in 7 appearances with a 1.00 WHIP. Only run allowed in a mop-up stituation.
It's been good to see (as I predicted) several players get on the HR bandwagon, including Harris, Monroe, and Gomez with 2 each. Just because some other people have chimed in doesn't mean that Morneau and Kubel should stop, though. I can't wait for Lamb and Young to finally hit one.
Here's my bold prediction for this next stretch: Slowey will have a better ERA than Livan.
Can the Twins keep up this pace, currently good enough to give them 86 wins on the season? I would be all kinds of delighted if they could pull that off. How long will that pace be good enough for first place in the surprisingly struggling AL Central?
The offense picked up a bit, but it's still wildly inconsistent. The Twins were shut out 3 times in their 6 losses this month, and were 1-hit in another. Most of the offense came in three blowout games: 12-6 vs. Texas, 11-1 vs. Detroit, and 13-1 vs. Chicago. The 36 runs the Twins scored in those 3 games nearly equaled the 38 runs they scored in the other 13.
The most consistent players during this stretch have been:
Boof Bonser - Pitched at least 6 innings in each start, with a 3.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. His strikeout rate has increased over his last couple starts - after just 14 K in his first 5 starts, he has 13 in his last 2.
Joe Mauer - Hit .383/.491/.553 with 6 doubles and a triple. He reached base at least once in each game he played.
Joe Nathan - Collected 6 saves in 7 appearances with a 1.00 WHIP. Only run allowed in a mop-up stituation.
It's been good to see (as I predicted) several players get on the HR bandwagon, including Harris, Monroe, and Gomez with 2 each. Just because some other people have chimed in doesn't mean that Morneau and Kubel should stop, though. I can't wait for Lamb and Young to finally hit one.
Here's my bold prediction for this next stretch: Slowey will have a better ERA than Livan.
Can the Twins keep up this pace, currently good enough to give them 86 wins on the season? I would be all kinds of delighted if they could pull that off. How long will that pace be good enough for first place in the surprisingly struggling AL Central?
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
As Bad As It Gets
White Sox 7, Twins 1
Yeah, that's about the worst game you're going to see. Pathetic effort from the offense, mediocre start, poor relief pitching, and the defense threw the ball around. Oh well, if you're only going to get one hit, you might as well get all your other sucking out of the way, too.
Blackburn didn't do too badly, giving the Twins another quality start. Too many walks, though.
Was anybody surprised to see Joe Mauer be the one who broke up the no-no? He's as hot as it gets right now.
Progress?
On a more positive note, Francisco Liriano had an effective, er, not terrible outing for AAA on Monday, allowing just 1 R on 2 H in 5 IP with 4 K. He's turned the corner, right? Well, there were the 4 BB, and he only threw 48 of his 87 pitches for strikes. So there's still some work to be done there. But it certainly seems to be a step forward.
Span vs. Gomez
Each CF made an error last night (Gomez' was, predictably, of the exuberantly overthrowing variety). Gomez, like the rest of the Twins' lineup, didn't hit squat, lowering his season line to .261/.287/.360, a .647 OPS, and holding at 13/14 SB. Span has been a busy boy the last couple of nights, collecting 5 H and 1 BB with 3 SB. That raised his AAA season line to .333/.443/.353, a .796 OPS and 11/13 SB.
Aaron Gleeman has been using some interesting metrics to measure the Twins' performance the last couple of days: Win Probability Added (WPA) and Outside Swings Percentage (OS%). Even after he adjusted the WPA ratings to reflect Gomez' importance as CF and Span's poor performance relative to actual RF, Span still wound up with a better rating than Gomez. And in the OS% post, Gleeman cuts off the PAs of rated players at 40, excluding Span, who has just 34 so far. Had he included Span, everyone could have seen that his OS% of 15.8% is even better than that of Joe Mauer (16.9%).
I can't help but conclude, as I have since spring training, that Span is more ready for the Big Leagues right now than Gomez. Sigh.
Yeah, that's about the worst game you're going to see. Pathetic effort from the offense, mediocre start, poor relief pitching, and the defense threw the ball around. Oh well, if you're only going to get one hit, you might as well get all your other sucking out of the way, too.
Blackburn didn't do too badly, giving the Twins another quality start. Too many walks, though.
Was anybody surprised to see Joe Mauer be the one who broke up the no-no? He's as hot as it gets right now.
Progress?
On a more positive note, Francisco Liriano had an effective, er, not terrible outing for AAA on Monday, allowing just 1 R on 2 H in 5 IP with 4 K. He's turned the corner, right? Well, there were the 4 BB, and he only threw 48 of his 87 pitches for strikes. So there's still some work to be done there. But it certainly seems to be a step forward.
Span vs. Gomez
Each CF made an error last night (Gomez' was, predictably, of the exuberantly overthrowing variety). Gomez, like the rest of the Twins' lineup, didn't hit squat, lowering his season line to .261/.287/.360, a .647 OPS, and holding at 13/14 SB. Span has been a busy boy the last couple of nights, collecting 5 H and 1 BB with 3 SB. That raised his AAA season line to .333/.443/.353, a .796 OPS and 11/13 SB.
Aaron Gleeman has been using some interesting metrics to measure the Twins' performance the last couple of days: Win Probability Added (WPA) and Outside Swings Percentage (OS%). Even after he adjusted the WPA ratings to reflect Gomez' importance as CF and Span's poor performance relative to actual RF, Span still wound up with a better rating than Gomez. And in the OS% post, Gleeman cuts off the PAs of rated players at 40, excluding Span, who has just 34 so far. Had he included Span, everyone could have seen that his OS% of 15.8% is even better than that of Joe Mauer (16.9%).
I can't help but conclude, as I have since spring training, that Span is more ready for the Big Leagues right now than Gomez. Sigh.
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Jim Leyland Knows Baseball
Twins 4, Tigers 1
Twins 7, Tigers 6
Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeep!
Ha! How satisfying to watch the Tigers bullpen get battered around a couple of times this weekend, after they'd been so good for 2 weeks. And how satisfying to see the Twins 'pen do their job, allowing just 1 R in 11 IP. The wheel keeps turning, and this weekend the Twins were on top.
The pitching staff faced considerable adversity this weekend. What a job by Brian Bass, earning his first Major League win with 4 terrific innings of relief after Scott Baker tweaked his groin. Again. He may have just won himself the opportunity to spot-start against Boston next weekend. Boof Bonser hung in there after a nightmare first inning in which the Tigers managed to find holes on good pitches, strike out on good pitches and reach anyway, run the bases. 45 pitches in the first, yet Boof still managed to complete 6 IP, allowing no further damage. (Amazingly, Brian Duensing of the Red Wings also gave up 6 runs in the first inning then pitched into the 6th, and he was facing the Tigers' AAA team. What are the chances?)
Joe Mauer carried the team all weekend, reaching at least twice in every game. His double off Kenny Rogers in the 4th on Sunday broke up the perfect game, and he came around to score a run. His single in the 7th was the difference in the game. I love it - but when are the homers coming?
As unlucky as the Twins were in the 1st inning, they got plenty of breaks themselves in the winning rally, starting with Carlos Guillen's fielding error on what should have been the 3rd out. Gomez chopped an IF hit, and after Harris' ground-rule double (the only bad break of the inning), Mauer's single bounced just out of reach of 3 fielders. 4 runs they had no business scoring - I love it!
The Wisdom of Jim Leyland
Jim Leyland wisely criticized his offense for allowing Bonser to stay in the game so long, calling attention to how the 5-pitch 2nd inning Bonser had let him off the hook. Sounds like something I would say.
Where he's gone wrong this season is in his use of Justin Verlander, who is so far showing splits reminiscent of Boof's 2007: he's dynamite for 5-6 IP, then goes out to start one more inning even though he's over 90 pitches and gets walloped.
Opening Day: 2 ER in 6 IP, faces 2 batters in the 7th, both score. 3.00 ERA becomes 6.00.
April 12th: 1 ER in 7.1 IP, then BB, HBP, single load the bases. At this point, he's at 102 pitches. He stays in for 3 more batters (including lefty AJ Pierzynski) and ends up giving up 6 ER in 7.2 IP. 1.23 ERA becomes 7.05.
April 27th: 2 ER in 5 IP, tagged for 4 ER in the 6th. 3.60 ERA becomes 9.54.
Saturday: 2 ER in 6 IP, he comes out for the 7th even though he's at 99 pitches. His old buddy Craig Monroe follows a 4-pitch walk to Delmon Young (that should have told Leyland something right there) with a 2-run HR. 3.00 ERA becomes 5.14.
His WHIP is excellent, then all of a sudden there are walks, hit batters, extra-base hits. And there's Leyland leaving him in there for 2 or 3 more hitters. If Verlander were playing for Gardy, I bet his ERA would be in the 4.00s instead of the 6.00s.
Leyland has been quoted as saying there will be a drastic shakeup to the Tigers lineup. Carlos Guillen has made 3 errors in 6 games at 3B, not a huge step up from Cabrera's 5 E in 14 games there. Meanwhile, Brandon Inge, an excellent defensive 3B, sits on the bench. The Jacque Jones/Marcus Thames platoon is the one consistently weak spot in their lineup.
If I were Leyland, I'd consider this: put Gary Sheffield in LF, make Cabrera the DH, bring Guillen back to 1B, and reinstate Inge as the regular 3B. I doubt Sheffield could be as much of a liability in left as Cabrera/Guillen have been at third. And I doubt Inge could be any more disappointing a hitter than Thames/Jones have been. He at least can get on base (14 BB in 101 PA vs. 12 BB in 135 PA for Thames/Jones). If the Tigers had solid defense with a legit on-base threat in the #9 spot, they might start to reach their potential.
Span vs. Gomez
Gomez had 2 ABs on Sunday with men in scoring position: with Punto on 3rd and one out in the 5th, he hit the ball straight up, and Punto was stranded. With runners at the corners and 2 out in the 7th, he hit the ball straight down, and legged it out for an RBI infield hit, extending the rally. I hope he learns something from that. His recent hot streak has improved his line to .271/.297/.374, a .671 OPS through 26 games. He's 13/14 stealing bases and has scored 17 R.
Span picked up his first XBH since spring training today. He has reached in every game he's started for Rochester this season. He's hitting .279/.404/.302, a .706 OPS through 11 games. He's 8/10 stealing bases and has scored 9 R.
Twins 7, Tigers 6
Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeep!
Ha! How satisfying to watch the Tigers bullpen get battered around a couple of times this weekend, after they'd been so good for 2 weeks. And how satisfying to see the Twins 'pen do their job, allowing just 1 R in 11 IP. The wheel keeps turning, and this weekend the Twins were on top.
The pitching staff faced considerable adversity this weekend. What a job by Brian Bass, earning his first Major League win with 4 terrific innings of relief after Scott Baker tweaked his groin. Again. He may have just won himself the opportunity to spot-start against Boston next weekend. Boof Bonser hung in there after a nightmare first inning in which the Tigers managed to find holes on good pitches, strike out on good pitches and reach anyway, run the bases. 45 pitches in the first, yet Boof still managed to complete 6 IP, allowing no further damage. (Amazingly, Brian Duensing of the Red Wings also gave up 6 runs in the first inning then pitched into the 6th, and he was facing the Tigers' AAA team. What are the chances?)
Joe Mauer carried the team all weekend, reaching at least twice in every game. His double off Kenny Rogers in the 4th on Sunday broke up the perfect game, and he came around to score a run. His single in the 7th was the difference in the game. I love it - but when are the homers coming?
As unlucky as the Twins were in the 1st inning, they got plenty of breaks themselves in the winning rally, starting with Carlos Guillen's fielding error on what should have been the 3rd out. Gomez chopped an IF hit, and after Harris' ground-rule double (the only bad break of the inning), Mauer's single bounced just out of reach of 3 fielders. 4 runs they had no business scoring - I love it!
The Wisdom of Jim Leyland
Jim Leyland wisely criticized his offense for allowing Bonser to stay in the game so long, calling attention to how the 5-pitch 2nd inning Bonser had let him off the hook. Sounds like something I would say.
Where he's gone wrong this season is in his use of Justin Verlander, who is so far showing splits reminiscent of Boof's 2007: he's dynamite for 5-6 IP, then goes out to start one more inning even though he's over 90 pitches and gets walloped.
Opening Day: 2 ER in 6 IP, faces 2 batters in the 7th, both score. 3.00 ERA becomes 6.00.
April 12th: 1 ER in 7.1 IP, then BB, HBP, single load the bases. At this point, he's at 102 pitches. He stays in for 3 more batters (including lefty AJ Pierzynski) and ends up giving up 6 ER in 7.2 IP. 1.23 ERA becomes 7.05.
April 27th: 2 ER in 5 IP, tagged for 4 ER in the 6th. 3.60 ERA becomes 9.54.
Saturday: 2 ER in 6 IP, he comes out for the 7th even though he's at 99 pitches. His old buddy Craig Monroe follows a 4-pitch walk to Delmon Young (that should have told Leyland something right there) with a 2-run HR. 3.00 ERA becomes 5.14.
His WHIP is excellent, then all of a sudden there are walks, hit batters, extra-base hits. And there's Leyland leaving him in there for 2 or 3 more hitters. If Verlander were playing for Gardy, I bet his ERA would be in the 4.00s instead of the 6.00s.
Leyland has been quoted as saying there will be a drastic shakeup to the Tigers lineup. Carlos Guillen has made 3 errors in 6 games at 3B, not a huge step up from Cabrera's 5 E in 14 games there. Meanwhile, Brandon Inge, an excellent defensive 3B, sits on the bench. The Jacque Jones/Marcus Thames platoon is the one consistently weak spot in their lineup.
If I were Leyland, I'd consider this: put Gary Sheffield in LF, make Cabrera the DH, bring Guillen back to 1B, and reinstate Inge as the regular 3B. I doubt Sheffield could be as much of a liability in left as Cabrera/Guillen have been at third. And I doubt Inge could be any more disappointing a hitter than Thames/Jones have been. He at least can get on base (14 BB in 101 PA vs. 12 BB in 135 PA for Thames/Jones). If the Tigers had solid defense with a legit on-base threat in the #9 spot, they might start to reach their potential.
Span vs. Gomez
Gomez had 2 ABs on Sunday with men in scoring position: with Punto on 3rd and one out in the 5th, he hit the ball straight up, and Punto was stranded. With runners at the corners and 2 out in the 7th, he hit the ball straight down, and legged it out for an RBI infield hit, extending the rally. I hope he learns something from that. His recent hot streak has improved his line to .271/.297/.374, a .671 OPS through 26 games. He's 13/14 stealing bases and has scored 17 R.
Span picked up his first XBH since spring training today. He has reached in every game he's started for Rochester this season. He's hitting .279/.404/.302, a .706 OPS through 11 games. He's 8/10 stealing bases and has scored 9 R.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Good Luck
Twins 11, Tigers 1
"Everything worked the way I wanted," Hernandez said. "So I'm lucky."
You can say that again. Despite allowing 10 baserunners, Livan managed to wriggle his way out of some jams to complete 7 innings, allowing only Magglio Ordonez' solo HR. Amazing.
I realized after his last start against Texas that the best game plan against Hernandez is to take 4 pitches every time you come to the plate. At that point, the count will either be 2-2 or 3-1 (or you're already on first base). Then try to hit the ball to the opposite field. It started out looking the Tigers would have the patience to do that, seeing 16 pitches despite going in order in the first. Then, beginning with Magglio's homer, 4 straight hitters reached to load the bases with 1 run in and nobody out in the 2nd. Luckily, the next two batters were Pudge Rodriguez and Jacque Jones, who combined to make 3 outs on the next 3 pitches. Those two are the only weak links in that lineup - thank goodness they were the ones coming up in that situation.
One thing I noticed watching the game tonight - Livan looks a lot better when the ump has a wide strike zone. He also did a nice job of changing speeds and keeping his pitches out of the middle of the plate.
So, he looks pretty good, right? Wily. Crafty. Eating innings. Taming the ferocious Tigers lineup. Anybody else want him? Happy to trade you...
"Our offense kind of exploded," said third-base coach Scott Ullger.
You can say that again. The underwhelming-in-April trio of Carlos Gomez, Jason Kubel and Delmon Young combined to go .545/.615/.727 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 SB; Gomez surely would have had another run had he not been conked out by a throw from Pudge in the 5th. The steady-in-April quartet of Harris, Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer went .444/.500/.778 with 7 R and 7 RBI. Even the slow starting former Astros each notched a hit.
11 runs is often a series' worth for the Twins, so I'm a little concerned that they blew their wad in a game they were already winning, and tomorrow they'll probably lose 6-4. Then again, maybe this is a continuation of the offensive awakening that began to stir late in the last road trip. We'll see how they do against Verlander and Rogers this weekend.
The Go-Go Show
Gomez had quite a game before he was knocked out in the 5th. He walked(!) leading off the game, stole second, and scored. He was hit by a pitch for the first time this season in the 3rd, and later scored. He stroked a 2-strike single leading off the 5th, setting up his collision with Pudge's throw while stealing his 13th base of the year. He had to make 2 throws into the infield, each missing the cutoff man by a mile.
When Gomez had his best full-season OBP in 2006, he was hit by a pitch 19 times in 430 ABs. In his minor league career, he averaged a HBP every 33 ABs; he was hit 3 times in 125 ABs with the Mets last year. It took him 102 ABs to get HBP this season. This is a part of his game he needs to bring back!
But why would any pitcher risk hitting him, when they can get him to expand the outside part of the zone? Tigers starter Galarraga did a terrible job pitching to Gomez tonight. A 5-pitch walk, HBP, and 2-strike hanging slider made life pretty easy for Go-Go. And he did a good job of making those mistakes costly.
(By the way, Span's line tonight: 2-4, BB, 3 SB and probably 0 overthrows of cutoff men)
"Everything worked the way I wanted," Hernandez said. "So I'm lucky."
You can say that again. Despite allowing 10 baserunners, Livan managed to wriggle his way out of some jams to complete 7 innings, allowing only Magglio Ordonez' solo HR. Amazing.
I realized after his last start against Texas that the best game plan against Hernandez is to take 4 pitches every time you come to the plate. At that point, the count will either be 2-2 or 3-1 (or you're already on first base). Then try to hit the ball to the opposite field. It started out looking the Tigers would have the patience to do that, seeing 16 pitches despite going in order in the first. Then, beginning with Magglio's homer, 4 straight hitters reached to load the bases with 1 run in and nobody out in the 2nd. Luckily, the next two batters were Pudge Rodriguez and Jacque Jones, who combined to make 3 outs on the next 3 pitches. Those two are the only weak links in that lineup - thank goodness they were the ones coming up in that situation.
One thing I noticed watching the game tonight - Livan looks a lot better when the ump has a wide strike zone. He also did a nice job of changing speeds and keeping his pitches out of the middle of the plate.
So, he looks pretty good, right? Wily. Crafty. Eating innings. Taming the ferocious Tigers lineup. Anybody else want him? Happy to trade you...
"Our offense kind of exploded," said third-base coach Scott Ullger.
You can say that again. The underwhelming-in-April trio of Carlos Gomez, Jason Kubel and Delmon Young combined to go .545/.615/.727 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 SB; Gomez surely would have had another run had he not been conked out by a throw from Pudge in the 5th. The steady-in-April quartet of Harris, Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer went .444/.500/.778 with 7 R and 7 RBI. Even the slow starting former Astros each notched a hit.
11 runs is often a series' worth for the Twins, so I'm a little concerned that they blew their wad in a game they were already winning, and tomorrow they'll probably lose 6-4. Then again, maybe this is a continuation of the offensive awakening that began to stir late in the last road trip. We'll see how they do against Verlander and Rogers this weekend.
The Go-Go Show
Gomez had quite a game before he was knocked out in the 5th. He walked(!) leading off the game, stole second, and scored. He was hit by a pitch for the first time this season in the 3rd, and later scored. He stroked a 2-strike single leading off the 5th, setting up his collision with Pudge's throw while stealing his 13th base of the year. He had to make 2 throws into the infield, each missing the cutoff man by a mile.
When Gomez had his best full-season OBP in 2006, he was hit by a pitch 19 times in 430 ABs. In his minor league career, he averaged a HBP every 33 ABs; he was hit 3 times in 125 ABs with the Mets last year. It took him 102 ABs to get HBP this season. This is a part of his game he needs to bring back!
But why would any pitcher risk hitting him, when they can get him to expand the outside part of the zone? Tigers starter Galarraga did a terrible job pitching to Gomez tonight. A 5-pitch walk, HBP, and 2-strike hanging slider made life pretty easy for Go-Go. And he did a good job of making those mistakes costly.
(By the way, Span's line tonight: 2-4, BB, 3 SB and probably 0 overthrows of cutoff men)
Thursday, May 1, 2008
April Review
Twins Record: 13-14
(2nd in AL Central by 1.5 games)
With the first of six months of the season in the books, the Twins find themselves on pace to finish the season about where they were last year: 78-84. This is certainly within the range that most folks were projecting prior to the season. What's been surprising is how well the Twins' young pitching staff has performed. With the exception of Francisco Liriano (who was simply not ready to return to the big leagues following Tommy John surgery) and the quickly injured Kevin Slowey, the Twins' young pitchers have combined for quality starts in 11 of 17 outings, with an average of just over 6 IP, a 3.88 ERA, and 1.27 WHIP. They are reassuring the team that their presence in the rotation will not be overly taxing to the bullpen, and Slowey's return next week should only enhance the success of the group.
The bullpen did not fare well early on, costing the Twins a couple of games they were leading after 7 innings. Most of the veterans in that group seem to be settling in, so I expect that situation to go better for the rest of the season.
Offensively, the Twins are last in the league in OBP, and near the bottom in OPS and HR. Only Mauer and Morneau have drawn more than 6 walks. Only Morneau and Kubel have hit more than one home run. On the plus side, the Twins are leading the league in SB (thanks mainly to Gomez and Young). There are signs that some of the hitters are beginning to warm up - they'll have to if the team is to improve in May.
And now, evaluations for players who have had at least 12 ABs or 8 IP:
Getting It Done
Justin Morneau
I'd like to see the average a little higher than .268, but he's earning his money by leading the team with 6 HR, 22 RBI, 11 BB, 48 TB, .495 SLG% and .840 OPS. He has yet to make an error at first base. We'll see if Cuddyer and Kubel can keep him protected.
Brendan Harris
He's settled into the #2 spot. He's struck out too many times (22), but his other numbers are about where I was hoping to see them (.287/.337/.389).
Matt Tolbert
He started out the season scorching hot, and has settled into a .700 OPS through 50 ABs. He's also stolen 3 bases in 4 attempts, and has made just 1 error in 59 total chances at three IF positions. The last man to make the team has earned his spot so far.
Nick Blackburn
And how about the last pitcher to make the team? We thought he'd maybe just keep Liriano's spot warm for a couple of starts, but he's ended up leading the starters with 38.1 IP and a 3.52 ERA through 6 starts. Maybe Baseball America knew what they were talking about after all...
Boof Bonser
Boof is right behind Blackburn with 36 IP and a 3.75 ERA. His 5 quality starts should give everyone confidence that he has the stamina to pitch deep into games now. He's managed to win 2 games despite receiving just 10 runs of support in his 6 April starts - show Boof some love, Offense!
Joe Nathan
Another guy earning his big contract extension, Nathan is 9/9 in save opportunities with a 0.82 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 9.00 K/9. Can't ask for much more than that.
Dennys Reyes
It was crucial that several of the Twins' bullpen members revert to their 2006 form this season, and Reyes has delivered. He has yet to allow an earned run in 12 appearances.
So Far, So Good
Joe Mauer
Mauer is leading the team in average and OBP - no surprise there. But he has yet to hit a homer, and hasn't shown as much gap power as I expected from his spring training ABs. 3 of his 7 XBH have come in the last week, as well as 4 of his 9 BB, so he's heading in the right direction.
Michael Cuddyer
Obviously, Cuddyer hasn't had much of a chance to make an impact this year thanks to a 3 week DL stint. He's done pretty well in the 10 games he's played, batting .297/.350/.405, but with just 1 HR, 1 double, and 2 BB. I hope we'll see more of those in the coming weeks.
Nick Punto
Punto has been doing about as well as I'd hoped so far: his average of .256 is a nice middle-ground between his excellent 2006 and atrocious 2007. He's put up a decent .326 OBP with 3 SB from the #9 spot with only 1 E in 55 TC from 4 positions. He'll likely return to the very spare use he was receiving early on now that Everett is coming off the DL.
Craig Monroe
Monroe has delivered as advertised so far this year with a .255/.300/.426 line almost identical to his career numbers (.256/.303/.446). Surpisingly, he's hit far better vs. RHP - I don't expect that to continue - and has generally had very good ABs (4.2 pitches/PA). He hasn't taken ABs from Kubel, and filled in competently when Gomez was out for a couple games last weekend.
Denard Span
Span delivered about league-average BA (.258) and OBP (.324) in limited time, mostly playing out of position in RF. He was 3/3 in SB attempts. Not bad for his first taste of the big leagues.
Pat Neshek
Neshek had two ghastly appearances on the first road trip in which he allowed 5 ER on 6 H in 1.2 IP and cost the Twins 2 games. In his 11 other appearances, he's gone 10.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3BB, 11 K. He'll be OK.
Scott Baker
Plagued by poor health througout the spring, Baker has been effective when he's been able to take the hill. 6 HR in 30 IP is a lot, but they all came with the bases empty vs. the Tigers and White Sox - they're going to hit their homers, so it's great that he was able to keep the damage minimal.
Jesse Crain
Like Neshek, Crain had a bad time in Detroit, giving up 3 ER on 2 H and 1 BB and costing the Twins a win. Other than that, he's allowed just 2 ER on 5 H and 2 BB with 7 K in 7.1 IP. His velocity and the sharpness of his breaking stuff is remarkable considering the shoulder injuries from which he's recovering. Hopefully he can contribute even more as the season goes along.
Brian Bass
Bass has gotten a lot of work in long relief this month (17.1 IP), and has been competent for the most part. He got beat up on the last road trip (5 ER on 11 H and 3 BB in 6 IP), but has otherwise been solid in situations where the Twins needed somebody to eat up some innings - particularly for a rookie.
Livan Hernandez
I can hardly believe I'm putting Livan in this category, but his nearly 6 IP/start, 5.05 ERA and 1.46 WHIP are about the best that could be expected of him. However luckily, he's managed to keep the Twins in 5 of the 6 games he's started.
Need to Pick It Up
Delmon Young
Because he was brought in to replace Torii Hunter's pop in the middle of the order, Young's 0 HR and .314 SLG% have to be rated a disappointment. However, he's been very good in the field, throwing out 4 baserunners and routinely holding opponents to singles on balls hit into the corner. His 6 SB in 7 tries are second on the team, so he's got 3 of the 5 tools working. And in his last 8 games, he's 10 for 30 with 3 BB for a .394 OBP. Hopefully the power is coming soon.
Carlos Gomez
Ah, Gomez. Though he's on pace to set a team record for SB, he has walked just twice for a .279 OBP. He is often a spark, but his erratic play is just as often a liability. Physically ready for the Majors; mentally barely out of high school.
Jason Kubel
Kubel is getting every chance to prove himself an everyday player, but hasn't quite made the most of it. His 4 HR, 16 RBI and .144 IsoP are second only to Morneau, but his BA and OBP are far lower than I would have expected. Too many strikeouts (20), not enough walks (3), too many useless 1-pitch ABs (2 for 16 when he puts the first pitch in play). He needs to chill out.
Mike Lamb
Another of the many new Twins who got off to a terrible start this season, Lamb was hitting just .145 through his first 16 games. Over his last 7, though, he's hit .333, so he may be loosening up. Still waiting for his first HR.
Adam Everett
Nobody expected Everett to hit well, but .185/.214/.222 is beyond awful. On top of that, his defense hasn't been as good as advertised (3 E in 9 games). Hopefully it can all be attributed to his bad shoulder, and now that it's healed, the real Adam Everett will appear (such as he is).
Mike Redmond
With all the off-days this month, Redmond barely averaged a start per week, so his 2 for 13 start is no real reason for concern. With only 2 off-days between now and mid-June, he'll get much more regular time, and plenty of opportunities to show that he's the same steady backup he's been for the past 3 seasons.
Matt Guerrier
Guerrier didn't have a great spring, and it carried into the first couple weeks of the season. He got away with some wildness against the Angels and Royals, but the White Sox and Tigers made him pay, tagging him for 6 ER on 6 H and 2 BB in 2.2 IP. Since then, he's settled down, allowing 1 ER on 7 H and 2 BB in 8.2 IP. Keep that going.
Juan Rincon
Like most of the bullpen, Rincon got knicked early on, but since his first appearance vs. the Angels, he's allowed 3 ER on 7 H and 2 BB (1 intentional) with 9 K in 9.1 IP. He's allowed 2 solo HR in that span, which is a bit of a concern (when he was lights-out from 2003-2006 he kept the ball in the yard), but otherwise he's on the right track.
Francisco Liriano
Simply not ready to return to the Majors.
Considering that most of the team has underperformed to some extent, the Twins are very fortunate to still be in the mix of the division race. Hopefully their play will improve along with their rivals' in May.
(2nd in AL Central by 1.5 games)
With the first of six months of the season in the books, the Twins find themselves on pace to finish the season about where they were last year: 78-84. This is certainly within the range that most folks were projecting prior to the season. What's been surprising is how well the Twins' young pitching staff has performed. With the exception of Francisco Liriano (who was simply not ready to return to the big leagues following Tommy John surgery) and the quickly injured Kevin Slowey, the Twins' young pitchers have combined for quality starts in 11 of 17 outings, with an average of just over 6 IP, a 3.88 ERA, and 1.27 WHIP. They are reassuring the team that their presence in the rotation will not be overly taxing to the bullpen, and Slowey's return next week should only enhance the success of the group.
The bullpen did not fare well early on, costing the Twins a couple of games they were leading after 7 innings. Most of the veterans in that group seem to be settling in, so I expect that situation to go better for the rest of the season.
Offensively, the Twins are last in the league in OBP, and near the bottom in OPS and HR. Only Mauer and Morneau have drawn more than 6 walks. Only Morneau and Kubel have hit more than one home run. On the plus side, the Twins are leading the league in SB (thanks mainly to Gomez and Young). There are signs that some of the hitters are beginning to warm up - they'll have to if the team is to improve in May.
And now, evaluations for players who have had at least 12 ABs or 8 IP:
Getting It Done
Justin Morneau
I'd like to see the average a little higher than .268, but he's earning his money by leading the team with 6 HR, 22 RBI, 11 BB, 48 TB, .495 SLG% and .840 OPS. He has yet to make an error at first base. We'll see if Cuddyer and Kubel can keep him protected.
Brendan Harris
He's settled into the #2 spot. He's struck out too many times (22), but his other numbers are about where I was hoping to see them (.287/.337/.389).
Matt Tolbert
He started out the season scorching hot, and has settled into a .700 OPS through 50 ABs. He's also stolen 3 bases in 4 attempts, and has made just 1 error in 59 total chances at three IF positions. The last man to make the team has earned his spot so far.
Nick Blackburn
And how about the last pitcher to make the team? We thought he'd maybe just keep Liriano's spot warm for a couple of starts, but he's ended up leading the starters with 38.1 IP and a 3.52 ERA through 6 starts. Maybe Baseball America knew what they were talking about after all...
Boof Bonser
Boof is right behind Blackburn with 36 IP and a 3.75 ERA. His 5 quality starts should give everyone confidence that he has the stamina to pitch deep into games now. He's managed to win 2 games despite receiving just 10 runs of support in his 6 April starts - show Boof some love, Offense!
Joe Nathan
Another guy earning his big contract extension, Nathan is 9/9 in save opportunities with a 0.82 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 9.00 K/9. Can't ask for much more than that.
Dennys Reyes
It was crucial that several of the Twins' bullpen members revert to their 2006 form this season, and Reyes has delivered. He has yet to allow an earned run in 12 appearances.
So Far, So Good
Joe Mauer
Mauer is leading the team in average and OBP - no surprise there. But he has yet to hit a homer, and hasn't shown as much gap power as I expected from his spring training ABs. 3 of his 7 XBH have come in the last week, as well as 4 of his 9 BB, so he's heading in the right direction.
Michael Cuddyer
Obviously, Cuddyer hasn't had much of a chance to make an impact this year thanks to a 3 week DL stint. He's done pretty well in the 10 games he's played, batting .297/.350/.405, but with just 1 HR, 1 double, and 2 BB. I hope we'll see more of those in the coming weeks.
Nick Punto
Punto has been doing about as well as I'd hoped so far: his average of .256 is a nice middle-ground between his excellent 2006 and atrocious 2007. He's put up a decent .326 OBP with 3 SB from the #9 spot with only 1 E in 55 TC from 4 positions. He'll likely return to the very spare use he was receiving early on now that Everett is coming off the DL.
Craig Monroe
Monroe has delivered as advertised so far this year with a .255/.300/.426 line almost identical to his career numbers (.256/.303/.446). Surpisingly, he's hit far better vs. RHP - I don't expect that to continue - and has generally had very good ABs (4.2 pitches/PA). He hasn't taken ABs from Kubel, and filled in competently when Gomez was out for a couple games last weekend.
Denard Span
Span delivered about league-average BA (.258) and OBP (.324) in limited time, mostly playing out of position in RF. He was 3/3 in SB attempts. Not bad for his first taste of the big leagues.
Pat Neshek
Neshek had two ghastly appearances on the first road trip in which he allowed 5 ER on 6 H in 1.2 IP and cost the Twins 2 games. In his 11 other appearances, he's gone 10.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3BB, 11 K. He'll be OK.
Scott Baker
Plagued by poor health througout the spring, Baker has been effective when he's been able to take the hill. 6 HR in 30 IP is a lot, but they all came with the bases empty vs. the Tigers and White Sox - they're going to hit their homers, so it's great that he was able to keep the damage minimal.
Jesse Crain
Like Neshek, Crain had a bad time in Detroit, giving up 3 ER on 2 H and 1 BB and costing the Twins a win. Other than that, he's allowed just 2 ER on 5 H and 2 BB with 7 K in 7.1 IP. His velocity and the sharpness of his breaking stuff is remarkable considering the shoulder injuries from which he's recovering. Hopefully he can contribute even more as the season goes along.
Brian Bass
Bass has gotten a lot of work in long relief this month (17.1 IP), and has been competent for the most part. He got beat up on the last road trip (5 ER on 11 H and 3 BB in 6 IP), but has otherwise been solid in situations where the Twins needed somebody to eat up some innings - particularly for a rookie.
Livan Hernandez
I can hardly believe I'm putting Livan in this category, but his nearly 6 IP/start, 5.05 ERA and 1.46 WHIP are about the best that could be expected of him. However luckily, he's managed to keep the Twins in 5 of the 6 games he's started.
Need to Pick It Up
Delmon Young
Because he was brought in to replace Torii Hunter's pop in the middle of the order, Young's 0 HR and .314 SLG% have to be rated a disappointment. However, he's been very good in the field, throwing out 4 baserunners and routinely holding opponents to singles on balls hit into the corner. His 6 SB in 7 tries are second on the team, so he's got 3 of the 5 tools working. And in his last 8 games, he's 10 for 30 with 3 BB for a .394 OBP. Hopefully the power is coming soon.
Carlos Gomez
Ah, Gomez. Though he's on pace to set a team record for SB, he has walked just twice for a .279 OBP. He is often a spark, but his erratic play is just as often a liability. Physically ready for the Majors; mentally barely out of high school.
Jason Kubel
Kubel is getting every chance to prove himself an everyday player, but hasn't quite made the most of it. His 4 HR, 16 RBI and .144 IsoP are second only to Morneau, but his BA and OBP are far lower than I would have expected. Too many strikeouts (20), not enough walks (3), too many useless 1-pitch ABs (2 for 16 when he puts the first pitch in play). He needs to chill out.
Mike Lamb
Another of the many new Twins who got off to a terrible start this season, Lamb was hitting just .145 through his first 16 games. Over his last 7, though, he's hit .333, so he may be loosening up. Still waiting for his first HR.
Adam Everett
Nobody expected Everett to hit well, but .185/.214/.222 is beyond awful. On top of that, his defense hasn't been as good as advertised (3 E in 9 games). Hopefully it can all be attributed to his bad shoulder, and now that it's healed, the real Adam Everett will appear (such as he is).
Mike Redmond
With all the off-days this month, Redmond barely averaged a start per week, so his 2 for 13 start is no real reason for concern. With only 2 off-days between now and mid-June, he'll get much more regular time, and plenty of opportunities to show that he's the same steady backup he's been for the past 3 seasons.
Matt Guerrier
Guerrier didn't have a great spring, and it carried into the first couple weeks of the season. He got away with some wildness against the Angels and Royals, but the White Sox and Tigers made him pay, tagging him for 6 ER on 6 H and 2 BB in 2.2 IP. Since then, he's settled down, allowing 1 ER on 7 H and 2 BB in 8.2 IP. Keep that going.
Juan Rincon
Like most of the bullpen, Rincon got knicked early on, but since his first appearance vs. the Angels, he's allowed 3 ER on 7 H and 2 BB (1 intentional) with 9 K in 9.1 IP. He's allowed 2 solo HR in that span, which is a bit of a concern (when he was lights-out from 2003-2006 he kept the ball in the yard), but otherwise he's on the right track.
Francisco Liriano
Simply not ready to return to the Majors.
Considering that most of the team has underperformed to some extent, the Twins are very fortunate to still be in the mix of the division race. Hopefully their play will improve along with their rivals' in May.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Timely
Twins 3, White Sox 1
Twins 4, White Sox 3
I had a feeling the White Sox would be a little easier to handle this time around. These were last year's White Sox, occasionally hitting solo homers, but otherwise anemic at the plate. After sweeping the 2-game series, the Twins finish April just 1.5 games out of first place.
Kudos to Boof Bonser, who had by far his best stuff of the season, allowing 1 R on 6 H and 1 BB in 7 IP with 8 K. The strikeouts were the best sign - double the amount he'd had in any single game so far this year. He managed 4 quality starts in 5 tries without missing many bats; I can't wait to see what he can do if he gets in the groove.
Nick Blackburn was hit around a bit, but as he did against Cleveland, he got big outs when he needed them. He was also able to complete 7 IP, allowing 3 ER on 8 H and 2 BB with 4 K. He'll certainly be sticking around the rotation for awhile.
Offensively, the lineup didn't do very much: only 7 R on 14 H and 7 BB (a week's worth for this team). But the hitting was very timely. The guys who hit last night (Mauer, Kubel, Young) didn't do much today, and vice versa with Gomez and Morneau.
Managerial note:
Gardy, Gomez led off the 7th inning with a bunt single, then Brendan Harris sacrificed him to second on the first pitch. Harris has been one of the Twins' best hitters this month. Gomez is one of the best base-stealers in the league. Pierzynski is one of the worst catchers at throwing out base-stealers in the league. I bet the Sox could pitch-out and Gomez would still steal on AJ. Why pay Harris' AB to get a runner to second when you can get him there for free? Give him a couple pitches to run on. Harris can sacrifice him to 3rd if you want to play it that way.
Span vs. Gomez
Speaking of Gomez, I'm going to keep harping on this as long as their respective play merits it.
In the bottom of the 4th, with the Twins leading 3-2, Gomez was on 2nd with Mauer batting and spot-starter Nick Masset still on the mound. Masset is a reliever, and at 65 pitches was likely tiring. Mauer, the Twins' best hitter, was ahead in the count 3-1 against the right-hander. Gomez, perhaps the fastest guy in the league, could effortlessly score on any base hit to the outfield with 2 outs. Yet he chose that moment to steal 3rd base. He succeeded, the ball got away, and he was thrown out at the plate trying to score. How exciting!
Replays may have shown that he should have been called safe, but Gardy was so shocked that Gomez would attempt such a foolish play, even he couldn't find the strength to put up much of an argument. Gomez claimed that he saw a steal sign from the dugout. I would be astounded if any such sign was given by anyone with authority to give signs. Mauer started the 5th facing LHP Matt Thornton - he grounded out.
Meanwhile, in 7 games at AAA Rochester, Denard Span has 8 singles and 7 walks, for an OBP of .429. Yaaaawwwwnnnn. He also has 5 SBs, though he's managed to get himself picked off twice. I know, not as exciting as Gomez, but it's something...
Twins 4, White Sox 3
I had a feeling the White Sox would be a little easier to handle this time around. These were last year's White Sox, occasionally hitting solo homers, but otherwise anemic at the plate. After sweeping the 2-game series, the Twins finish April just 1.5 games out of first place.
Kudos to Boof Bonser, who had by far his best stuff of the season, allowing 1 R on 6 H and 1 BB in 7 IP with 8 K. The strikeouts were the best sign - double the amount he'd had in any single game so far this year. He managed 4 quality starts in 5 tries without missing many bats; I can't wait to see what he can do if he gets in the groove.
Nick Blackburn was hit around a bit, but as he did against Cleveland, he got big outs when he needed them. He was also able to complete 7 IP, allowing 3 ER on 8 H and 2 BB with 4 K. He'll certainly be sticking around the rotation for awhile.
Offensively, the lineup didn't do very much: only 7 R on 14 H and 7 BB (a week's worth for this team). But the hitting was very timely. The guys who hit last night (Mauer, Kubel, Young) didn't do much today, and vice versa with Gomez and Morneau.
Managerial note:
Gardy, Gomez led off the 7th inning with a bunt single, then Brendan Harris sacrificed him to second on the first pitch. Harris has been one of the Twins' best hitters this month. Gomez is one of the best base-stealers in the league. Pierzynski is one of the worst catchers at throwing out base-stealers in the league. I bet the Sox could pitch-out and Gomez would still steal on AJ. Why pay Harris' AB to get a runner to second when you can get him there for free? Give him a couple pitches to run on. Harris can sacrifice him to 3rd if you want to play it that way.
Span vs. Gomez
Speaking of Gomez, I'm going to keep harping on this as long as their respective play merits it.
In the bottom of the 4th, with the Twins leading 3-2, Gomez was on 2nd with Mauer batting and spot-starter Nick Masset still on the mound. Masset is a reliever, and at 65 pitches was likely tiring. Mauer, the Twins' best hitter, was ahead in the count 3-1 against the right-hander. Gomez, perhaps the fastest guy in the league, could effortlessly score on any base hit to the outfield with 2 outs. Yet he chose that moment to steal 3rd base. He succeeded, the ball got away, and he was thrown out at the plate trying to score. How exciting!
Replays may have shown that he should have been called safe, but Gardy was so shocked that Gomez would attempt such a foolish play, even he couldn't find the strength to put up much of an argument. Gomez claimed that he saw a steal sign from the dugout. I would be astounded if any such sign was given by anyone with authority to give signs. Mauer started the 5th facing LHP Matt Thornton - he grounded out.
Meanwhile, in 7 games at AAA Rochester, Denard Span has 8 singles and 7 walks, for an OBP of .429. Yaaaawwwwnnnn. He also has 5 SBs, though he's managed to get himself picked off twice. I know, not as exciting as Gomez, but it's something...
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
The Real Livan Hernandez
Twins 12, Rangers 6
Rangers 10, Twins 0
I knew he was lurking around the clubhouse somewhere. It was only a question of where he would show up. Answer: in the West. In his two starts on this road trip, Livan Hernandez went just 8.2 IP, allowing 11 ER, 16 H, 3 BB, 5 K. His season ERA stands at 5.05, his WHIP at 1.46, his BAA at .310.
And April is his "good" month.
If only someone had wanted to trade for him after three starts. Now, he'll probably have to be ignominiously released sometime next month once the team is comfortable promoting Kevin Mulvey, Brian Duensing or Francisco Liriano. Livan's been better than Liriano, and with Kevin Slowey injured, it was good to have him around, I guess. But I think that once he's released after 10-12 starts for a younger pitcher who performs consistently better, we'll be asking ourselves the same thing we asked about Ponson, Ortiz and Batista: why was it necessary to suffer through two months of mediocrity/incompetence when better prospects were available in the system? I hope this is the year the Twins finally learn their lesson.
As for the offensive side of things, it was great to see everything click on Saturday, especially a HR from Cuddyer in just his second game back. I preferred Mauer in the #2 slot, but Harris has been having good enough ABs that he's a good choice for that spot as well. At least Mauer will be hitting behind somebody with an OBP north of .300. Moving Delmon Young down in the lineup is also a good move at this point - until he starts popping doubles and homers, he's not much protection for Morneau. Good to see Lamb starting to heat up.
On Sunday, maybe Livan's lugubrious suckitude took everybody out of the game mentally, but it was disheartening to see the offense let Vicente Padilla pitch a CG shutout against them. Particularly upsetting was the fact that they forced him to throw 23 pitches in the first inning, but just 98 pitches over the next 8. Jason Kubel is largely to blame, flying out on the first pitch of the 2nd to set up a 6-pitch inning. I love Kubel, but he hacks at the first pitch way too often in situations where a little grinding patience would serve the team better.
Kevin Slowey was excellent in his second start in Fort Myers, allowing only a walk in 5 IP. Clearly, he's too good for Single-A: in 8 IP he allowed just 1 ER on 1 H and 1 BB. He's on target to start Thursday for Rochester, and if he looks good there, he'll be in line to start in Chicago the following week. That will be a big lift for the Twins' battered rotation.
Rangers 10, Twins 0
I knew he was lurking around the clubhouse somewhere. It was only a question of where he would show up. Answer: in the West. In his two starts on this road trip, Livan Hernandez went just 8.2 IP, allowing 11 ER, 16 H, 3 BB, 5 K. His season ERA stands at 5.05, his WHIP at 1.46, his BAA at .310.
And April is his "good" month.
If only someone had wanted to trade for him after three starts. Now, he'll probably have to be ignominiously released sometime next month once the team is comfortable promoting Kevin Mulvey, Brian Duensing or Francisco Liriano. Livan's been better than Liriano, and with Kevin Slowey injured, it was good to have him around, I guess. But I think that once he's released after 10-12 starts for a younger pitcher who performs consistently better, we'll be asking ourselves the same thing we asked about Ponson, Ortiz and Batista: why was it necessary to suffer through two months of mediocrity/incompetence when better prospects were available in the system? I hope this is the year the Twins finally learn their lesson.
As for the offensive side of things, it was great to see everything click on Saturday, especially a HR from Cuddyer in just his second game back. I preferred Mauer in the #2 slot, but Harris has been having good enough ABs that he's a good choice for that spot as well. At least Mauer will be hitting behind somebody with an OBP north of .300. Moving Delmon Young down in the lineup is also a good move at this point - until he starts popping doubles and homers, he's not much protection for Morneau. Good to see Lamb starting to heat up.
On Sunday, maybe Livan's lugubrious suckitude took everybody out of the game mentally, but it was disheartening to see the offense let Vicente Padilla pitch a CG shutout against them. Particularly upsetting was the fact that they forced him to throw 23 pitches in the first inning, but just 98 pitches over the next 8. Jason Kubel is largely to blame, flying out on the first pitch of the 2nd to set up a 6-pitch inning. I love Kubel, but he hacks at the first pitch way too often in situations where a little grinding patience would serve the team better.
Kevin Slowey was excellent in his second start in Fort Myers, allowing only a walk in 5 IP. Clearly, he's too good for Single-A: in 8 IP he allowed just 1 ER on 1 H and 1 BB. He's on target to start Thursday for Rochester, and if he looks good there, he'll be in line to start in Chicago the following week. That will be a big lift for the Twins' battered rotation.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
One Bad Inning
Rangers 6, Twins 5 (10 innings)
Tough loss last night, though I'm not really that upset about it. The season is young, yet the Twins have already managed to lose every type of close game:
Great pitching, no offense (1-0 to the Angels). These really upset me.
Terrible pitching, tons of offense (11-9 to the Tigers). These upset me almost as much.
Decent pitching, decent offense (last night). Ho hum.
The Twins put together 2 early rallies, each started by bunt singles from Carlos Gomez. My goodness, he's a terror when he actually puts those in play. Joe Mauer drew walks in each case, and Justing Morneau finished them off with RBI hits. His first was a terrific 2-strike liner past the shortstop on a curveball down and away - great piece of hitting. The second was a first pitch laser shot over the right-field wall for a grand slam.
That was about it for the night. Brendan Harris was pitched extremely tough - his 3 K all came on filthy pitches. Jason Kubel had three well-hit shots to the outfield that were tracked down. Punto lined into a double play the one time in four ABs he hit the ball hard.
On the pitching side, Blackburn looked pretty good, once again. As fortunate as he was to have everything hit right at somebody for a DP in his last start, he was unlucky last night to have them find holes. The pitches to Hamilton and Blalock in the 3rd inning were up - everything else was just out of the reach of the fielders. Botts just went down and got the curveball he lined off the RF wall to start the DP. (Let that be a lesson to everyone - don't run on Cuddyer, even the day after he comes back from a finger injury.) A pitcher like Blackburn, who throws strikes and invites contact, is going to run into a bad inning like that every now and then. Nothing to be concerned about.
The bullpen did just fine, allowing 1 R in 3.2 innings. Rincon wasn't helped by the situation he was in in the 10th: the OF was playing a little shallower than they would have been to try and give themselves a better shot at getting the winning run at the plate.
The Rangers are a pretty good hitting team, and they'd been shut down the day before, so a breakout like they had wasn't unexpected. Tonight, they'll be sending our old friend Sidney Ponson out there. If the Twins lose to him, I think I will be upset.
Tough loss last night, though I'm not really that upset about it. The season is young, yet the Twins have already managed to lose every type of close game:
Great pitching, no offense (1-0 to the Angels). These really upset me.
Terrible pitching, tons of offense (11-9 to the Tigers). These upset me almost as much.
Decent pitching, decent offense (last night). Ho hum.
The Twins put together 2 early rallies, each started by bunt singles from Carlos Gomez. My goodness, he's a terror when he actually puts those in play. Joe Mauer drew walks in each case, and Justing Morneau finished them off with RBI hits. His first was a terrific 2-strike liner past the shortstop on a curveball down and away - great piece of hitting. The second was a first pitch laser shot over the right-field wall for a grand slam.
That was about it for the night. Brendan Harris was pitched extremely tough - his 3 K all came on filthy pitches. Jason Kubel had three well-hit shots to the outfield that were tracked down. Punto lined into a double play the one time in four ABs he hit the ball hard.
On the pitching side, Blackburn looked pretty good, once again. As fortunate as he was to have everything hit right at somebody for a DP in his last start, he was unlucky last night to have them find holes. The pitches to Hamilton and Blalock in the 3rd inning were up - everything else was just out of the reach of the fielders. Botts just went down and got the curveball he lined off the RF wall to start the DP. (Let that be a lesson to everyone - don't run on Cuddyer, even the day after he comes back from a finger injury.) A pitcher like Blackburn, who throws strikes and invites contact, is going to run into a bad inning like that every now and then. Nothing to be concerned about.
The bullpen did just fine, allowing 1 R in 3.2 innings. Rincon wasn't helped by the situation he was in in the 10th: the OF was playing a little shallower than they would have been to try and give themselves a better shot at getting the winning run at the plate.
The Rangers are a pretty good hitting team, and they'd been shut down the day before, so a breakout like they had wasn't unexpected. Tonight, they'll be sending our old friend Sidney Ponson out there. If the Twins lose to him, I think I will be upset.
Friday, April 25, 2008
Going Down
Athletics 11, Twins 2
Yeaaah, I had a bad feeling about this one. A pitcher struggling to regain his command matched up with one of the most institutionally patient teams in all of baseball was a recipe for disaster. Francisco Liriano couldn't get himself out of the 1st inning Thursday, the shortest start by a healthy Twins pitcher since the mid-1990's. Sensibly, the team has elected to send him to the Minors until he gets it together.
Carlos Gomez led off the game with a home run. Swinging as hard as he does, it was probably just a matter of time before someone left a pitch up to him where he could park it. He added a single later, raising his 2008 hitting line to .242/.258/.352. Denard Span got a pinch-hit single late in the game to raise his line to .258/.324/.258. Insensibly, the team elected to send him to the Minors until...I don't know. I guess until Gomez stinks it up for another couple of weeks.
The Twins will try to get well this weekend vs. Texas. They'll be sending out their most consistent starters against the worst pitching team in the AL so far. Hopefully, a few more guys will break their HR droughts (Mauer? Lamb? Young?). If they can win the series, this could still turn out to be an OK road trip.
Yeaaah, I had a bad feeling about this one. A pitcher struggling to regain his command matched up with one of the most institutionally patient teams in all of baseball was a recipe for disaster. Francisco Liriano couldn't get himself out of the 1st inning Thursday, the shortest start by a healthy Twins pitcher since the mid-1990's. Sensibly, the team has elected to send him to the Minors until he gets it together.
Carlos Gomez led off the game with a home run. Swinging as hard as he does, it was probably just a matter of time before someone left a pitch up to him where he could park it. He added a single later, raising his 2008 hitting line to .242/.258/.352. Denard Span got a pinch-hit single late in the game to raise his line to .258/.324/.258. Insensibly, the team elected to send him to the Minors until...I don't know. I guess until Gomez stinks it up for another couple of weeks.
The Twins will try to get well this weekend vs. Texas. They'll be sending out their most consistent starters against the worst pitching team in the AL so far. Hopefully, a few more guys will break their HR droughts (Mauer? Lamb? Young?). If they can win the series, this could still turn out to be an OK road trip.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
No Support
A's 3, Twins 0
Poor Boof Bonser. Last night he gave the Twins his 4th quality start in 5 appearances, yet dropped to 1-4 on the season. The team has produced 7 runs in the 29 innings Bonser has pitched so far.
With Chad Gaudin doing a terrific job of keeping the Twins' hitters off-balance all night, this game was a perfect time to work some counts and elevate his pitch totals. Not in the game plan, apparently. Gaudin needed just 84 pitches to complete 7 innings. He threw only about 50 through the first 5 IP.
Denard Span didn't contribute much to Gaudin's stress level. He saw only 6 pitches in his three ABs, reaching on an infield single to start the game. Gardy sensibly pinch-hit Brendan Harris vs. LHP Alan Embree in the 8th, so Span didn't get another chance to reach a second time. That creates this interesting comparison as Cuddyer prepares to come off the DL tomorrow:
Gomez: .230/.247/.310 = .557 OPS
Span: .233/.303/.233 = .536 OPS
At least one of them will get a few more ABs with which to influence matters this afternoon. But if you had to have one of those guys as your CF/leadoff hitter, who would you prefer? Joe C. has made his choice, and Aaron Gleeman and Nick are also accutely aware of the problem. Hopefully the Twins will do something about it soon.
Poor Boof Bonser. Last night he gave the Twins his 4th quality start in 5 appearances, yet dropped to 1-4 on the season. The team has produced 7 runs in the 29 innings Bonser has pitched so far.
With Chad Gaudin doing a terrific job of keeping the Twins' hitters off-balance all night, this game was a perfect time to work some counts and elevate his pitch totals. Not in the game plan, apparently. Gaudin needed just 84 pitches to complete 7 innings. He threw only about 50 through the first 5 IP.
Denard Span didn't contribute much to Gaudin's stress level. He saw only 6 pitches in his three ABs, reaching on an infield single to start the game. Gardy sensibly pinch-hit Brendan Harris vs. LHP Alan Embree in the 8th, so Span didn't get another chance to reach a second time. That creates this interesting comparison as Cuddyer prepares to come off the DL tomorrow:
Gomez: .230/.247/.310 = .557 OPS
Span: .233/.303/.233 = .536 OPS
At least one of them will get a few more ABs with which to influence matters this afternoon. But if you had to have one of those guys as your CF/leadoff hitter, who would you prefer? Joe C. has made his choice, and Aaron Gleeman and Nick are also accutely aware of the problem. Hopefully the Twins will do something about it soon.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Better to Be Lucky
Twins 5, A's 4
I had house guests last night, so I didn't get to watch/listen to the game. I was able to check in on Gameday periodically. My thoughts based on that, the box score, and the write-up:
Sounded like a lot of the Twins' hits were well-placed. Those can be the ones that get slumping guys going sometimes. Hopefully that will be the case for Mike Lamb.
Craig Monroe absolutely owns Joe Blanton. I wonder if he can say that about any other RHP. Great to see him raise the SLG% and join the HR parade (such as it is).
Livan Hernandez continues to pitch well enough to keep the Twins in the game, but he's showing signs of cracking. He allowed just 5 ER in his first 3 starts, allowing no HR and walking none with 7 IP in each game. These starts were against the Angels and Royals, who rank 12th and 13th in the AL in team walks, respectively (guess who's #14!). His last 2 starts, he has allowed 7 ER, 4 HR and 6 walks while pitching 6 innings each. He's crafty enough to get away with allowing just over a H/IP, but not if the H is a HR, and not if there's a BB right in front of it (as was the case in the 6th last night). If Monroe didn't have Blanton's number, Livan's pitching performance would have resulted in a loss.
Solid work again by the bullpen: Rincon, Neshek and Nathan combined for 3 IP, H, BB, 5 K. Keep that up.
Span vs. Gomez
I haven't been able to make any comparisons recently, since Span has been out of the lineup following his atrocious performance in the final game of the Rays series (0-3, K, 2 E). But surely Gomez surpassed those depths of suckitude last night (0-5, 4 K, E). Since one of Span's errors was the result of the poor design of the Metrodome (no one doubts that he can catch balls that he can see), I'm calling the Error category even between those two. Gomez gets extra points for the game saver on Sunday. But at least we can say that Span has not played markedly weaker defense than Gomez (Span gets extra points for playing out of position).
Offensively, Span is hitting .222/.300/.222 through 30 PAs. He has 3 BB, 6 K and 3 SB. Gomez is hitting .230/.247/.310 through 89 PAs. He has 2 BB, 24 K and 9 SB. In 1/3 the playing time, Span has 3/2 the BB, 1/4 the K, and 1/3 the SB of Gomez.
It sounds like Span will get a start tonight against RHP Chad Gaudin. If he can reach two times, it should be enough to warrant serious discussion as to which young OF the Twins send back to Rochester when Cuddyer is activated from the DL on Friday.
I had house guests last night, so I didn't get to watch/listen to the game. I was able to check in on Gameday periodically. My thoughts based on that, the box score, and the write-up:
Sounded like a lot of the Twins' hits were well-placed. Those can be the ones that get slumping guys going sometimes. Hopefully that will be the case for Mike Lamb.
Craig Monroe absolutely owns Joe Blanton. I wonder if he can say that about any other RHP. Great to see him raise the SLG% and join the HR parade (such as it is).
Livan Hernandez continues to pitch well enough to keep the Twins in the game, but he's showing signs of cracking. He allowed just 5 ER in his first 3 starts, allowing no HR and walking none with 7 IP in each game. These starts were against the Angels and Royals, who rank 12th and 13th in the AL in team walks, respectively (guess who's #14!). His last 2 starts, he has allowed 7 ER, 4 HR and 6 walks while pitching 6 innings each. He's crafty enough to get away with allowing just over a H/IP, but not if the H is a HR, and not if there's a BB right in front of it (as was the case in the 6th last night). If Monroe didn't have Blanton's number, Livan's pitching performance would have resulted in a loss.
Solid work again by the bullpen: Rincon, Neshek and Nathan combined for 3 IP, H, BB, 5 K. Keep that up.
Span vs. Gomez
I haven't been able to make any comparisons recently, since Span has been out of the lineup following his atrocious performance in the final game of the Rays series (0-3, K, 2 E). But surely Gomez surpassed those depths of suckitude last night (0-5, 4 K, E). Since one of Span's errors was the result of the poor design of the Metrodome (no one doubts that he can catch balls that he can see), I'm calling the Error category even between those two. Gomez gets extra points for the game saver on Sunday. But at least we can say that Span has not played markedly weaker defense than Gomez (Span gets extra points for playing out of position).
Offensively, Span is hitting .222/.300/.222 through 30 PAs. He has 3 BB, 6 K and 3 SB. Gomez is hitting .230/.247/.310 through 89 PAs. He has 2 BB, 24 K and 9 SB. In 1/3 the playing time, Span has 3/2 the BB, 1/4 the K, and 1/3 the SB of Gomez.
It sounds like Span will get a start tonight against RHP Chad Gaudin. If he can reach two times, it should be enough to warrant serious discussion as to which young OF the Twins send back to Rochester when Cuddyer is activated from the DL on Friday.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Pitching and Defense
Twins 3, Indians 0
Twins 2, Indians 1 (10 innings)
The Indians were the single biggest reason the Twins didn't make it to the happy side of .500 in 2007. They beat the Twins in 14 of 18 meetings, including every time Santana faced them. While their pitching staff stymied the hitters, they always managed to get the big hit just when they needed it, or the Twins would give them an extra out or base with a defensive miscue.
Not so much this weekend.
Although the Tribe's only run on Sunday was a direct result of an unturned double play (high relay throw from Brendan Harris), the Twins otherwise made every play they were supposed to make, and several they weren't. Infielders and outfielders were diving around all over the field, most notably when Carlos Gomez saved the game with his sprawling catch in the 9th. The defense did turn 5 DPs, four in support of Nick Blackburn on Saturday. Delmon Young picked up his 3rd OF assist to preserve the shutout. Neither team committed an error in the series.
Blackburn's performance was a clinic in minimizing damage. Though he allowed a baserunner in just about every inning, he didn't hurt himself with walks, and his sinker kept setting up DPs. The very definition of "scattering" 8 hits in 7.2 innings. Had the Twins been able to pad the lead a bit, I thought he might get the chance to match Carlos Silva's 11-hit, 6 DP shutout vs. the Angels a few years ago.
Scott Baker was arguably even more effective, allowing just 5 hits and one walk in 7 innings. The missed DP chance extended the second inning by 3 batters and 13 pitches, so had it been turned, Baker might well have completed 8 shutout innings. His 8 Ks were 1 short of his career high.
The bullpen was nearly flawless as well, allowing only 3 baserunners in 4.1 innings. It was particularly heartening to see Neshek come in with a runner on in the 9th and slam the door (thanks, again, to the athletic prowess of Gomez), something he was unable to do in Chicago and Detroit.
Last weekend, the Twins took 2 of 3 from KC despite scoring just 8 runs in the series. Hard to top, but they did it this weekend, taking 2 of 3 from the Tribe despite scoring just 5 runs in the 3 games.
Three weeks into the season, the Twins are near the bottom of the AL in runs (13th), OBP (14th) and SLG (12th), yet are tied for second place in the division, just 2.5 games behind the White Sox. This is thanks to a pitching staff that ranks very highly in ERA (3rd), fewest walks allowed (1st), and WHIP (1st), and a defense which is among the leaders in throwing out baserunners (1st in caught stealing %, tied for 1st in OF assists). Thank goodness for pitching and defense, otherwise the Twins would be in big trouble.
Twins 2, Indians 1 (10 innings)
The Indians were the single biggest reason the Twins didn't make it to the happy side of .500 in 2007. They beat the Twins in 14 of 18 meetings, including every time Santana faced them. While their pitching staff stymied the hitters, they always managed to get the big hit just when they needed it, or the Twins would give them an extra out or base with a defensive miscue.
Not so much this weekend.
Although the Tribe's only run on Sunday was a direct result of an unturned double play (high relay throw from Brendan Harris), the Twins otherwise made every play they were supposed to make, and several they weren't. Infielders and outfielders were diving around all over the field, most notably when Carlos Gomez saved the game with his sprawling catch in the 9th. The defense did turn 5 DPs, four in support of Nick Blackburn on Saturday. Delmon Young picked up his 3rd OF assist to preserve the shutout. Neither team committed an error in the series.
Blackburn's performance was a clinic in minimizing damage. Though he allowed a baserunner in just about every inning, he didn't hurt himself with walks, and his sinker kept setting up DPs. The very definition of "scattering" 8 hits in 7.2 innings. Had the Twins been able to pad the lead a bit, I thought he might get the chance to match Carlos Silva's 11-hit, 6 DP shutout vs. the Angels a few years ago.
Scott Baker was arguably even more effective, allowing just 5 hits and one walk in 7 innings. The missed DP chance extended the second inning by 3 batters and 13 pitches, so had it been turned, Baker might well have completed 8 shutout innings. His 8 Ks were 1 short of his career high.
The bullpen was nearly flawless as well, allowing only 3 baserunners in 4.1 innings. It was particularly heartening to see Neshek come in with a runner on in the 9th and slam the door (thanks, again, to the athletic prowess of Gomez), something he was unable to do in Chicago and Detroit.
Last weekend, the Twins took 2 of 3 from KC despite scoring just 8 runs in the series. Hard to top, but they did it this weekend, taking 2 of 3 from the Tribe despite scoring just 5 runs in the 3 games.
Three weeks into the season, the Twins are near the bottom of the AL in runs (13th), OBP (14th) and SLG (12th), yet are tied for second place in the division, just 2.5 games behind the White Sox. This is thanks to a pitching staff that ranks very highly in ERA (3rd), fewest walks allowed (1st), and WHIP (1st), and a defense which is among the leaders in throwing out baserunners (1st in caught stealing %, tied for 1st in OF assists). Thank goodness for pitching and defense, otherwise the Twins would be in big trouble.
Friday, April 18, 2008
Out of Control
Indians 4, Twins 0
Liriano was a little better tonight in his second start. While he was just as wild (5 BB), he lasted a bit longer (5 IP), gave up 1 fewer run (3 ER), and 2 fewer hits (4) than in his previous appearance. Not as many of the balls put in play were hit hard. A step forward for Liriano, albeit a small one. He won't be able to take a big step until he can locate his fastball.
There wasn't much hope against Cliff Lee tonight, as with Bannister in Liriano's previous start (Liriano must be jealous of Boof Bonser's run support!). The Twins gave themselves an excellent chance by having lengthy ABs in the early innings. I was particularly impressed with the bottom of the 5th, when Lee had to throw 19 pitches to get Young, Kubel and Monroe in order. At the end of that inning he was at 80 pitches. As it turned out, he left the game after 109 pitches despite giving up just 2 hits and being in total command of the game. That goes to show that had the Twins built off that taxing 5th, they might have been able to get Lee out of the game an inning or so earlier had they continued to have grinding ABs. Instead, Harris, Punto and Gomez went down on 6 pitches total in the 6th, Morneau hit into a double play in the 7th, and Lee was able to start the 8th still shy of the 100-pitch mark.
Two bright spots in a dull night:
Rincon and Crain each pitched 2 innings, walking none and striking out 2. The obligatory Casey Blake HR (he's got to get at least one in every series vs. the Twins - it's a rule) was the only hit allowed by either. Another solid outing from the middle relief!
Young and Monroe had as productive a combined 0-5 as is possible on a night like tonight. Together they saw 34 of Lee's 109 pitches. Young drew his 3rd walk of the season. The only AB for these two that lasted fewer than 5 pitches was when Monroe drove the 2nd pitch to the wall in left-center to end the 8th. If only the rest of the lineup had been so pesky!
Liriano was a little better tonight in his second start. While he was just as wild (5 BB), he lasted a bit longer (5 IP), gave up 1 fewer run (3 ER), and 2 fewer hits (4) than in his previous appearance. Not as many of the balls put in play were hit hard. A step forward for Liriano, albeit a small one. He won't be able to take a big step until he can locate his fastball.
There wasn't much hope against Cliff Lee tonight, as with Bannister in Liriano's previous start (Liriano must be jealous of Boof Bonser's run support!). The Twins gave themselves an excellent chance by having lengthy ABs in the early innings. I was particularly impressed with the bottom of the 5th, when Lee had to throw 19 pitches to get Young, Kubel and Monroe in order. At the end of that inning he was at 80 pitches. As it turned out, he left the game after 109 pitches despite giving up just 2 hits and being in total command of the game. That goes to show that had the Twins built off that taxing 5th, they might have been able to get Lee out of the game an inning or so earlier had they continued to have grinding ABs. Instead, Harris, Punto and Gomez went down on 6 pitches total in the 6th, Morneau hit into a double play in the 7th, and Lee was able to start the 8th still shy of the 100-pitch mark.
Two bright spots in a dull night:
Rincon and Crain each pitched 2 innings, walking none and striking out 2. The obligatory Casey Blake HR (he's got to get at least one in every series vs. the Twins - it's a rule) was the only hit allowed by either. Another solid outing from the middle relief!
Young and Monroe had as productive a combined 0-5 as is possible on a night like tonight. Together they saw 34 of Lee's 109 pitches. Young drew his 3rd walk of the season. The only AB for these two that lasted fewer than 5 pitches was when Monroe drove the 2nd pitch to the wall in left-center to end the 8th. If only the rest of the lineup had been so pesky!
First Split: 7-9
The baseball season is often compared to a marathon. Both are long events, requiring a steady effort over an extended period of time. To keep themselves from getting out too fast or too slow, runners pay attention to their split times. For example, if you can run each mile of a marathon in about 7 minutes, you'll be on pace for about a 3-hour race.
I like to divide the baseball season into tenths: 8 16-game splits and 2 17-gamers. Not only is it convenient to think in terms of decimals (rather than the more evenly divisible 9ths), but it's an amount of games over which 1 game makes a meaninful difference. If your team wins 8 of every 16 games, they'll finish .500 - better luck next year. But if they win 9 of every 16, that puts a team on pace to win 91 games. Lately, that's been good enough to get an NL team into the playoffs. In the AL, it will at least keep the fans interested into the last week of the season.
The Twins came up 2 games short of that benchmark, but there's no reason for concern at this point. There were 4 games (the 1-0 loss to the Angels and the 3 bullpen losses on the road trip) that were within the Twins' power to win, or at least not lose. I'd pay particular attention to the Angels loss, when the only run of the game scored on a wild pitch, and the Monday night meltdown vs. the Tigers, when the fatal inning was extended by Everett's hurting throwing arm. It doesn't take much to turn games like those around in the future.
16 games is probably too small a number of games to tell you anything about how individual players are doing. Every starting pitcher should only get about 3 starts. Every regular position player should get about 60 plate appearances. Each member of the bullpen should get about 4 appearances. All of those amounts fall well within a "hot" or "cold" period that a particular player might be going through, so I don't pretend to make any meaningful projections for the remainder of the season based on such small numbers. Collectively, though, there have been some interesting trends during the first tenth of the season:
Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel are the only players who have hit home runs so far. The Twins have been out-homered 19-7.
Twins starters are averaging just under 6 IP (OK), 1.8 BB/9 (good), 4.7 K/9 (not good). If the walk rate goes up, the K rate will have to go with it, or there's going to be trouble.
The Twins 2 most effective relievers so far, Joe Nathan and Dennys Reyes (combined 0.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 0 BB, 9 K) have pitched just 9.2 innings together. Matt Guerrier (5.79 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 4 BB, 6 K) has pitched 9.1 innings.
Carlos Gomez is leading the league in SB. He's just 2 off the league lead in K with 17. Everyone else in the top 20 in the AL in K either has an OBP well over .300 or an ISO power over .130, with the exception of the A's' Jack Hannahan, who has an OBP nearly identical to Gomez' despite hitting just .167. Shorten up and put it in play, Go-Go!
Hopefully Cuddyer will come off the DL shortly into the next batch of 16 games, giving a boost to the top of the order. Liriano figures to make 4 starts during that stretch, so it will be interesting to see how he progresses. Bold prediction: more than two Twins will have hit homers by the end of the 32nd game!
In business news, Forbes posted its valuations of the MLB franchises this week. The Twins ranked 25th, but increased their value by 14%, the 10th straight season their value has increased, and the 3rd straight in which it has increased by 14% or more. The Twins' franchise value has more than doubled over the past 5 seasons.
Total revenue has been increasing at a similar rate in recent years. Applying the Twins' stated formula of 51% of revenue going to player payroll, the team should be paying $76 million in salaries in 2008. Even if the revenue growth slows to about 10% annually, the Twins should have no trouble fielding a $100 million payroll by 2011.
I like to divide the baseball season into tenths: 8 16-game splits and 2 17-gamers. Not only is it convenient to think in terms of decimals (rather than the more evenly divisible 9ths), but it's an amount of games over which 1 game makes a meaninful difference. If your team wins 8 of every 16 games, they'll finish .500 - better luck next year. But if they win 9 of every 16, that puts a team on pace to win 91 games. Lately, that's been good enough to get an NL team into the playoffs. In the AL, it will at least keep the fans interested into the last week of the season.
The Twins came up 2 games short of that benchmark, but there's no reason for concern at this point. There were 4 games (the 1-0 loss to the Angels and the 3 bullpen losses on the road trip) that were within the Twins' power to win, or at least not lose. I'd pay particular attention to the Angels loss, when the only run of the game scored on a wild pitch, and the Monday night meltdown vs. the Tigers, when the fatal inning was extended by Everett's hurting throwing arm. It doesn't take much to turn games like those around in the future.
16 games is probably too small a number of games to tell you anything about how individual players are doing. Every starting pitcher should only get about 3 starts. Every regular position player should get about 60 plate appearances. Each member of the bullpen should get about 4 appearances. All of those amounts fall well within a "hot" or "cold" period that a particular player might be going through, so I don't pretend to make any meaningful projections for the remainder of the season based on such small numbers. Collectively, though, there have been some interesting trends during the first tenth of the season:
Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel are the only players who have hit home runs so far. The Twins have been out-homered 19-7.
Twins starters are averaging just under 6 IP (OK), 1.8 BB/9 (good), 4.7 K/9 (not good). If the walk rate goes up, the K rate will have to go with it, or there's going to be trouble.
The Twins 2 most effective relievers so far, Joe Nathan and Dennys Reyes (combined 0.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 0 BB, 9 K) have pitched just 9.2 innings together. Matt Guerrier (5.79 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 4 BB, 6 K) has pitched 9.1 innings.
Carlos Gomez is leading the league in SB. He's just 2 off the league lead in K with 17. Everyone else in the top 20 in the AL in K either has an OBP well over .300 or an ISO power over .130, with the exception of the A's' Jack Hannahan, who has an OBP nearly identical to Gomez' despite hitting just .167. Shorten up and put it in play, Go-Go!
Hopefully Cuddyer will come off the DL shortly into the next batch of 16 games, giving a boost to the top of the order. Liriano figures to make 4 starts during that stretch, so it will be interesting to see how he progresses. Bold prediction: more than two Twins will have hit homers by the end of the 32nd game!
In business news, Forbes posted its valuations of the MLB franchises this week. The Twins ranked 25th, but increased their value by 14%, the 10th straight season their value has increased, and the 3rd straight in which it has increased by 14% or more. The Twins' franchise value has more than doubled over the past 5 seasons.
Total revenue has been increasing at a similar rate in recent years. Applying the Twins' stated formula of 51% of revenue going to player payroll, the team should be paying $76 million in salaries in 2008. Even if the revenue growth slows to about 10% annually, the Twins should have no trouble fielding a $100 million payroll by 2011.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
The Blecch Brothers
Rays 7, Twins 3
I missed the game tonight while I was at Happy Hour with my co-workers. An immense number of co-workers, happily drinking together. Happy for 3 hours, actually. Happier than I'd have been listening to the game, safe to say.
I root for the Twins, you know. I want them to do well. To exceed expectations. To prove their doubters wrong. So it's demoralizing to come home and check the box score and find that two of the guys I was especially rooting for did this:
Boof Bonser: 4+ IP, 7 R, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 HR
Denard Span: 0-3, K, R, SB, 2 E
I don't have much context here. I don't know how hard Span hit the ball. I don't know if the hits Boof gave up were mostly bloopers and bleeders. I guess Span lost a ball in the bank of lights - we've seen outfielders struggle with that play for years. But the results are just flat-out yucky. Blecch. I'm sure they both can't wait to put this game behind them.
Interesting to see all 8 hits come from the first 5 hitters in the lineup. It was just the opposite in Bonser's last start in KC. Funny game.
Span vs. Gomez
Gomez good. Span bad. 'Nuff said.
I missed the game tonight while I was at Happy Hour with my co-workers. An immense number of co-workers, happily drinking together. Happy for 3 hours, actually. Happier than I'd have been listening to the game, safe to say.
I root for the Twins, you know. I want them to do well. To exceed expectations. To prove their doubters wrong. So it's demoralizing to come home and check the box score and find that two of the guys I was especially rooting for did this:
Boof Bonser: 4+ IP, 7 R, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 HR
Denard Span: 0-3, K, R, SB, 2 E
I don't have much context here. I don't know how hard Span hit the ball. I don't know if the hits Boof gave up were mostly bloopers and bleeders. I guess Span lost a ball in the bank of lights - we've seen outfielders struggle with that play for years. But the results are just flat-out yucky. Blecch. I'm sure they both can't wait to put this game behind them.
Interesting to see all 8 hits come from the first 5 hitters in the lineup. It was just the opposite in Bonser's last start in KC. Funny game.
Span vs. Gomez
Gomez good. Span bad. 'Nuff said.
Sweet Relief
Twins 6, Rays 5
The Twins got back into the win column and evened their home record last night.
Livan finally started to show some cracks. Coming into the game he had a 2.57 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, going 7 innings in each of his first 3 starts, walking 1 and allowing no homers. Last night only 3 of the 5 runs he allowed were earned thanks to Brendan Harris' error, so his overall ERA remains low (3.00). But he served up 3 walks and 3 homers, and his WHIP for the game was 1.83. The Rays were pretty patient with him, forcing him to throw strikes, elevating his pitch count to 103 through just 6 IP. He was fortunate it wasn't worse - a DP and Mauer gunning down 2 potential base stealers helped him escape a couple of jams.
Still, when he left the Twins were in the game, and this time the middle relief did the job. Dennys Reyes saw his first action in over a week, taking over in the 7th with 1.1 efficient innings. Juan Rincon came in to finish the 8th, allowing a 2-out single but no other trouble. It was enough to earn the bullpen its first win of the season after an 0-3 road trip.
Each team took advantage of defensive miscues to score runs. Harris' error extended the 6th until Riggins could come up and hit a game-tying, 2-run HR. In the previous half inning, the Twins scored 2 on a throwing error by our old friend Jason Bartlett, who matched Everett with his 3rd error of the young season. Former Rays Delmon Young and Harris keyed the winning rally in the bottom of the 8th, singling to put runners at the corners with 1 out. Carl Crawford then elected to make a sliding catch on Mike Lamb's slicing foul fly ball, getting the out but giving himself no chance to throw out the tagging Young. With Lamb hitting .156, and Dan Wheeler allowing a very low BAA, Crawford might have been better off letting that one drop for a strike.
While they got some favors from the Rays, the Twins also helped themselves by working James Shields, a very solid young pitcher. He lasted just 5 innings, yielding 5 R (3 ER) on 8 H and a BB. Mauer is 5 for his last 8 and has the average back up to .300. Morneau came a couple feet short of HR #5. Kubel had a couple more hits and an RBI. Harris matched that and continues to lead the team with a .341 BA. Lamb and Punto continue to struggle.
Span vs. Gomez
Span had his worst night at the plate so far, going 0-4 with 2 K. He had a nice AB in the first, lining out on a 2-1 pitch. But other than that, he was pretty weak, twice failing to bring Gomez home from second base, and never getting the ball out of the infield.
Gomez had his first 2-hit game since Livan's last start. He lined a single on a 1-2 pitch in the 3rd, and finally got a bunt down in the 5th. Each time he stole 2nd to raise his League-leading SB total to 9. He raised his line to .262/.284/.369. He made another errant throw from the outfield in the 5th when he had no chance to throw out the speedy Crawford on a ground ball single from BJ Upton - he was fortunate that Morneau was able to cut the ball and keep Upton at first.
The Twins got back into the win column and evened their home record last night.
Livan finally started to show some cracks. Coming into the game he had a 2.57 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, going 7 innings in each of his first 3 starts, walking 1 and allowing no homers. Last night only 3 of the 5 runs he allowed were earned thanks to Brendan Harris' error, so his overall ERA remains low (3.00). But he served up 3 walks and 3 homers, and his WHIP for the game was 1.83. The Rays were pretty patient with him, forcing him to throw strikes, elevating his pitch count to 103 through just 6 IP. He was fortunate it wasn't worse - a DP and Mauer gunning down 2 potential base stealers helped him escape a couple of jams.
Still, when he left the Twins were in the game, and this time the middle relief did the job. Dennys Reyes saw his first action in over a week, taking over in the 7th with 1.1 efficient innings. Juan Rincon came in to finish the 8th, allowing a 2-out single but no other trouble. It was enough to earn the bullpen its first win of the season after an 0-3 road trip.
Each team took advantage of defensive miscues to score runs. Harris' error extended the 6th until Riggins could come up and hit a game-tying, 2-run HR. In the previous half inning, the Twins scored 2 on a throwing error by our old friend Jason Bartlett, who matched Everett with his 3rd error of the young season. Former Rays Delmon Young and Harris keyed the winning rally in the bottom of the 8th, singling to put runners at the corners with 1 out. Carl Crawford then elected to make a sliding catch on Mike Lamb's slicing foul fly ball, getting the out but giving himself no chance to throw out the tagging Young. With Lamb hitting .156, and Dan Wheeler allowing a very low BAA, Crawford might have been better off letting that one drop for a strike.
While they got some favors from the Rays, the Twins also helped themselves by working James Shields, a very solid young pitcher. He lasted just 5 innings, yielding 5 R (3 ER) on 8 H and a BB. Mauer is 5 for his last 8 and has the average back up to .300. Morneau came a couple feet short of HR #5. Kubel had a couple more hits and an RBI. Harris matched that and continues to lead the team with a .341 BA. Lamb and Punto continue to struggle.
Span vs. Gomez
Span had his worst night at the plate so far, going 0-4 with 2 K. He had a nice AB in the first, lining out on a 2-1 pitch. But other than that, he was pretty weak, twice failing to bring Gomez home from second base, and never getting the ball out of the infield.
Gomez had his first 2-hit game since Livan's last start. He lined a single on a 1-2 pitch in the 3rd, and finally got a bunt down in the 5th. Each time he stole 2nd to raise his League-leading SB total to 9. He raised his line to .262/.284/.369. He made another errant throw from the outfield in the 5th when he had no chance to throw out the speedy Crawford on a ground ball single from BJ Upton - he was fortunate that Morneau was able to cut the ball and keep Upton at first.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Crazy 8ths
Tigers 6, Twins 5
Dammit.
I didn't think the Twins would lose 2 games all season leading after 7 innings. How about 2 in a row? With the beating the bullpen took Monday night, I thought it was imperative that Baker go at least 7 innings, and he got it done (though he gave up 3 solo homers for the second straight game). Crain was the proper choice to begin the 8th - he's looked as good as anyone in the 'pen so far this year. The ump didn't help with a questionable ball call on the 1-0 pitch, but Crain dug himself a huge hole by walking Polanco (not easy to do!) and sending him to third base with a wild pickoff throw. He already had two strikes on Sheffield, so he had to try and strike him out of keep the ball in the infield. And he did it - foul pop to the catcher!
Whew! Now he just has to get Magglio out.
And that's the problem with the Tigers lineup - it never lets up. Magglio hit a very good slider into the right field corner to tie the game. Cabrera then hit a bad fastball over the wall in left, and that was that.
This could have been a fine road trip had the Twins gotten consistent middle relief. The starters and lineup played well enough for the Twins to go 6-1 on the trip. It's early to be overly concerned about the bullpen, and Gardy says he hasn't lost confidence in anybody. They'll need to get back on track as a group if the Twins are to have any chance in 2008.
But as poorly as the bullpen performed in Detroit, the fact is that, had this series begun the road trip last week, the exact effort the Twins put forth would have gotten them 2 wins instead of 2 losses. The difference is that the Tigers woke up. Bad timing.
Meanwhile, I was pleased both nights with how the offense kept fighting against Todd Jones in the 9th, putting the tying run on base in each game. It was nice to see Delmon Young start hitting some fly balls and doubles, and Craig Monroe had his first 2-hit game in his return to Detroit. Hopefully they're starting to wake up as well.
Span vs. Gomez
Span sat out against lefty starter Nate Robertson, appearing in the 9th as a pinch runner. Gomez led off with a double, stole 3rd, and scored on a groundout by Mauer. His other three ABs were pathetic - a pop-out attempting to sacrifice and 2 Ks. He's supposed to be a good bunter and he can't lay down a proper sacrifice? He also otherthrew the cutoff man in the 5th, though no one advanced.
Cuddyer is hoping to come off the DL on Sunday. If he does, that gives Span 4 more games in his callup. 3 of those games will be started by right-handed pitchers, so hopefully that will give him 12-15 more PAs. If he reaches 4-5 times, and continues to do everything right in the field and on the bases, I hope the Twins will think carefully about who they send down to make room for Cuddy.
Dammit.
I didn't think the Twins would lose 2 games all season leading after 7 innings. How about 2 in a row? With the beating the bullpen took Monday night, I thought it was imperative that Baker go at least 7 innings, and he got it done (though he gave up 3 solo homers for the second straight game). Crain was the proper choice to begin the 8th - he's looked as good as anyone in the 'pen so far this year. The ump didn't help with a questionable ball call on the 1-0 pitch, but Crain dug himself a huge hole by walking Polanco (not easy to do!) and sending him to third base with a wild pickoff throw. He already had two strikes on Sheffield, so he had to try and strike him out of keep the ball in the infield. And he did it - foul pop to the catcher!
Whew! Now he just has to get Magglio out.
And that's the problem with the Tigers lineup - it never lets up. Magglio hit a very good slider into the right field corner to tie the game. Cabrera then hit a bad fastball over the wall in left, and that was that.
This could have been a fine road trip had the Twins gotten consistent middle relief. The starters and lineup played well enough for the Twins to go 6-1 on the trip. It's early to be overly concerned about the bullpen, and Gardy says he hasn't lost confidence in anybody. They'll need to get back on track as a group if the Twins are to have any chance in 2008.
But as poorly as the bullpen performed in Detroit, the fact is that, had this series begun the road trip last week, the exact effort the Twins put forth would have gotten them 2 wins instead of 2 losses. The difference is that the Tigers woke up. Bad timing.
Meanwhile, I was pleased both nights with how the offense kept fighting against Todd Jones in the 9th, putting the tying run on base in each game. It was nice to see Delmon Young start hitting some fly balls and doubles, and Craig Monroe had his first 2-hit game in his return to Detroit. Hopefully they're starting to wake up as well.
Span vs. Gomez
Span sat out against lefty starter Nate Robertson, appearing in the 9th as a pinch runner. Gomez led off with a double, stole 3rd, and scored on a groundout by Mauer. His other three ABs were pathetic - a pop-out attempting to sacrifice and 2 Ks. He's supposed to be a good bunter and he can't lay down a proper sacrifice? He also otherthrew the cutoff man in the 5th, though no one advanced.
Cuddyer is hoping to come off the DL on Sunday. If he does, that gives Span 4 more games in his callup. 3 of those games will be started by right-handed pitchers, so hopefully that will give him 12-15 more PAs. If he reaches 4-5 times, and continues to do everything right in the field and on the bases, I hope the Twins will think carefully about who they send down to make room for Cuddy.
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