Tigers 11, Twins 9
For two weeks, the mighty Detroit Tigers lineup was last in the league in runs scored. You knew that couldn't last. My hope was that they would extend their slump for the two games the Twins were in town - at least one of the days. And for 5.2 innings last night, it looked like I was going to get my wish. Nick Blackburn shut the Tigers down for that span, allowing no runs on 4 hits. Then, with shocking speed, the Tigers woke up.
Fittingly, it began with a cheap swinging bunt by Gary Sheffield. Then Magglio got a hit. Better start warming up Guerrier. Cabrera, Guillen - by the time the bullpen gates swung open, the Tigers had four straight hits and 3 runs in. Renteria greeted Guerrier with an RBI single, but was kind enough to get himself thrown out between first and second, and the inning ended with the Twins still leading 5-4.
The Twins promptly got those 4 runs back from Bonderman and Bobby Seay, and though Guerrier allowed a leadoff homer from Ivan Rodriguez off the glove of Denard Span in right, the Twins carried a 4-run lead into the 8th. With Neshek and Nathan, the Twins should win just about every time they lead after 7 innings. But they should win every time the lead by 4 after 7 innings.
There are lots of ways to explain what happened in the bottom of the 8th. As soon as Magglio drilled that ball off the wall in center to make the score 9-6, Neshek should have come in. It was a save situation, and Guerrier hasn't been all that great in the early-goings this season. To be fair, he got the next guy - Adam Everett's lazy throwing error allowed Cabrera to reach and forced the Twins to get 4 outs in the inning. When Neshek did get in there with a 2-run lead, he served up 3 hits, including 2 triples, and Jacque Jones' SF was pretty sharply hit as well.
As I said last Monday, if Neshek is going to get knocked around, the Twins are probably going to lose. But when the game got away, there were so many little plays that came back to mind, plays that didn't seem to matter at the time, when the Twins were way ahead. Morneau getting himself trapped off 2nd base on Young's RBI single. Span just missing that catch on Rodriguez. Mauer failing to get that run in in the top of the 8th. Gardy staying with Guerrier and Blackburn a couple batters too long.
I think what it comes down to is a team-wide underestimation of the power of the Tigers to score runs. Let this be a lesson for the 17 games against them to come. Against the Tigers, you can never have enough runs. Against the Tigers, a 4-run lead is a save situation. Against the Tigers, you can't afford to let up, no matter what the score.
On the bright side, with Mauer, Kubel, Sheffield, Guillen and Magglio on my fantasy teams, I had a pretty good night.
Span vs. Gomez
If Span could have come down with that Rodriguez home run, last night would have been his best all-around game so far. As it was, he still went 2-4 with a walk, run scored and an OF assist. The sample size is still very small, but he is continuing the steady play we saw in spring training.
Gomez went 0-5, and is now 0 for his last 15. His line has declined to .246/.271/.351 with 14 K in 57 AB. He took advantage of the fact that other players were on first ahead of him, turning groundouts into FCs and using his time on first to steal a base and score a run.
One thing I'm noticing about him - he's an especially bad hitter with men on base: .306/.342/.417 with the bases empty (not bad!), but .143/.143/.238 with runners on (blecch!). Yes, it's important for the leadoff man to be good at getting on and starting a rally, but since he also hits an average of 1.6 times a game with men on, I'd like to see him do something productive there, too.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Monday, April 14, 2008
Winter Ball
Twins 2, Royals 0
Royals 5, Twins 1
Frigid weather tends to favor pitchers, and with game-time wind chills at or below freezing all weekend, the pitchers had their way with the hitters - as long as they threw strikes.
Boof Bonser was excellent on Saturday night, mixing his pitches and staying ahead of the hitters. Though he did finally walk 2 batters, he was in total control on the balls that were put in play. Billy Butler's single in the 6th was the only hard-hit ball against Bonser in 6 innings. Unlike Monday, the bullpen set up the way Twins wanted, and Guerrier, Neshek and Nathan finished the shutout with a combined 3 IP, 2 H, 3 K and 39 pitches.
Not so good for Francisco Liriano on Sunday. Based on his spring training and the 2 minor league starts this month, it didn't seem like his command was there yet, and that was case Sunday as well. He was constantly behind the hitters, and when he did throw a fastball over it was hit hard. He couldn't finish 5 innings, walking 5 and allowing 6 hits while striking out 4. Hopefully some of it can be attributed to nerves at making his first Major League appearance in over a year, and some to discomfort at the cold weather. At this point, any outing he makes is another step in his recovery, so he's moving along.
Kubel played every game this weekend, rewarding the Twins with some big hits. Punto got just his second start of the season and performed very well, going 2-3. If he keeps it up, I'll be calling for him to replace Everett in the every-day lineup. It was a brutal weekend for Lamb, Young and Mauer - they'll need to break out this week if the Twins are to have a chance.
Span vs. Gomez
Neither one of them did a thing against Bannister on Sunday, but neither did anybody else in the lineup, so I'm not going to worry about that game. Saturday night was Span's first 2-hit game, and he drove in his second run. The 7th inning was where the difference between the two players really became clear. After Gardy astutely called for the hit-and-run on the first pitch to Brendan Harris following Kubel's leadoff single, Span came up with runners at the corners and none out. He hacked at a good fastball, took an off-speed pitch in the dirt, then hit the ball sharply on the ground up the middle with a nice, compact swing, driving in the run. After Punto's bunt single loaded the bases with none out, Gomez came up and hacked wildly at 3 straight sliders out of the zone. Easy strikeout, no further runs scored.
I won't be too hard on either of these guys yet with the sample sizes still so small (54 PA for Gomez, 18 for Span) - Gomez and the rest of the Twins' regulars will get a closer look this coming weekend. However, it's interesting to note that by the end of the second week of the season, after just 12 games, Gomez' hot start has evaporated, and his OBP stands today at .296. Not good for a leadoff hitter. And, because he's at the top of the lineup, Gomez has 6 more PA than any other Twins player. 1 extra PA every 2 games for a guy who gets on less than 30% of the time. Over the course of the season, that's a lot of bad ABs.
Looking at the series as a whole, I'm very pleased to see the Twins win 2 of 3 on the road against a divisional opponent despite scoring a total of 8 runs. Through the first 2 weeks, the Twins are 2nd in the AL in team pitching, making up for an anemic 11th-ranked offense. Funny how everybody was so nervous about the pitching heading into the season. I don't expect Livan to keep it up, of course, so the offense is definitely going to need to get going in order to keep things close.
Hopefully the Tigers will continue to suck for 2 more games.
Royals 5, Twins 1
Frigid weather tends to favor pitchers, and with game-time wind chills at or below freezing all weekend, the pitchers had their way with the hitters - as long as they threw strikes.
Boof Bonser was excellent on Saturday night, mixing his pitches and staying ahead of the hitters. Though he did finally walk 2 batters, he was in total control on the balls that were put in play. Billy Butler's single in the 6th was the only hard-hit ball against Bonser in 6 innings. Unlike Monday, the bullpen set up the way Twins wanted, and Guerrier, Neshek and Nathan finished the shutout with a combined 3 IP, 2 H, 3 K and 39 pitches.
Not so good for Francisco Liriano on Sunday. Based on his spring training and the 2 minor league starts this month, it didn't seem like his command was there yet, and that was case Sunday as well. He was constantly behind the hitters, and when he did throw a fastball over it was hit hard. He couldn't finish 5 innings, walking 5 and allowing 6 hits while striking out 4. Hopefully some of it can be attributed to nerves at making his first Major League appearance in over a year, and some to discomfort at the cold weather. At this point, any outing he makes is another step in his recovery, so he's moving along.
Kubel played every game this weekend, rewarding the Twins with some big hits. Punto got just his second start of the season and performed very well, going 2-3. If he keeps it up, I'll be calling for him to replace Everett in the every-day lineup. It was a brutal weekend for Lamb, Young and Mauer - they'll need to break out this week if the Twins are to have a chance.
Span vs. Gomez
Neither one of them did a thing against Bannister on Sunday, but neither did anybody else in the lineup, so I'm not going to worry about that game. Saturday night was Span's first 2-hit game, and he drove in his second run. The 7th inning was where the difference between the two players really became clear. After Gardy astutely called for the hit-and-run on the first pitch to Brendan Harris following Kubel's leadoff single, Span came up with runners at the corners and none out. He hacked at a good fastball, took an off-speed pitch in the dirt, then hit the ball sharply on the ground up the middle with a nice, compact swing, driving in the run. After Punto's bunt single loaded the bases with none out, Gomez came up and hacked wildly at 3 straight sliders out of the zone. Easy strikeout, no further runs scored.
I won't be too hard on either of these guys yet with the sample sizes still so small (54 PA for Gomez, 18 for Span) - Gomez and the rest of the Twins' regulars will get a closer look this coming weekend. However, it's interesting to note that by the end of the second week of the season, after just 12 games, Gomez' hot start has evaporated, and his OBP stands today at .296. Not good for a leadoff hitter. And, because he's at the top of the lineup, Gomez has 6 more PA than any other Twins player. 1 extra PA every 2 games for a guy who gets on less than 30% of the time. Over the course of the season, that's a lot of bad ABs.
Looking at the series as a whole, I'm very pleased to see the Twins win 2 of 3 on the road against a divisional opponent despite scoring a total of 8 runs. Through the first 2 weeks, the Twins are 2nd in the AL in team pitching, making up for an anemic 11th-ranked offense. Funny how everybody was so nervous about the pitching heading into the season. I don't expect Livan to keep it up, of course, so the offense is definitely going to need to get going in order to keep things close.
Hopefully the Tigers will continue to suck for 2 more games.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Livan on the Edge
Twins 5, Royals 0
Tonight's game was a lot closer than it appeared, though the Twins were leading big from the 2nd inning on. The Royals helped them out with a misplayed fly ball in the Twins' 4-run inning. Had Teahen made a routine catch, the only run that inning would have scored on Span's first Major-League RBI. Instead, Gomez got a 2-run double, and scored on a single from the white-hot Matt Tolbert. All 3 RBI hits came with 2 outs.
On the other side of the ball, Livan was very fortunate to get through the first 5 innings with no runs allowed. This was especially true in the 5th, when the Royals loaded the bases with one out. Teahen's single was so hard-hit right at Span that the Royals elected not to send the runner home from 2nd. Hernandez then got Guillen to chase a curve ball out of the zone, and retired Billy Butler on a weak grounder. Scouts take note: apparently, the only way to get Butler out is to throw him 60-MPH curve balls.
Luckily, things worked out for the Twins, and they're back to .500 and within 1 game of the division lead. Hopefully Boof Bonser can get more than 1 run of support tomorrow in a re-match of last Sunday's loss.
Span vs. Gomez
Pretty good night for both guys, though, as it was in spring training, Gomez comes out looking better. As I said, Teahen really helped him out in the 2nd, but he hustled all night and hit some balls hard on 2-strike pitches, something we've seen very little of so far. He came within a borderline call of making it 2 games in a row in which he and Young both drew walks. Span was a borderline call away from a 1-3 line. But he picked up his first RBI and OF assist (Butler needs to just be happy he's on first base vs. our OF), and he had another couple of 6-pitch ABs. Gomez had some longer ABs tonight, and Young, for that matter. Maybe Tolbert and Span are rubbing off on them.
Other thoughts:
Lousy night for Mauer, Kubel, and Lamb (2 of whom are on my fantasy team), although Mauer had a couple of hard-hit balls.
Jesse Crain wasn't out there very long, but he looked fantastic. His fastball was in the mid-90s, and his slider was sharp. He's back!
Kevin Slowey was finally placed on the DL, and Liriano is coming up to start on Sunday. He'll probably be a little rough at first, command-wise, but the Royals aren't walking very much, so maybe they'll help him out. It will be exciting to have him back in any event!
I hope Slowey is able to make a quick recovery. He was the best pitcher in AAA last season, and looked ready to take the next step this spring. When he's finally healthy, the Twins will be in great position to deal Hernandez at the top of his value and perhaps upgrade one of the infield positions.
For as sluggish as the Twins have started, they find themselves in better position than some of their more formidable rivals. With their best baseball still ahead of them, it's not a bad position to be in.
Tonight's game was a lot closer than it appeared, though the Twins were leading big from the 2nd inning on. The Royals helped them out with a misplayed fly ball in the Twins' 4-run inning. Had Teahen made a routine catch, the only run that inning would have scored on Span's first Major-League RBI. Instead, Gomez got a 2-run double, and scored on a single from the white-hot Matt Tolbert. All 3 RBI hits came with 2 outs.
On the other side of the ball, Livan was very fortunate to get through the first 5 innings with no runs allowed. This was especially true in the 5th, when the Royals loaded the bases with one out. Teahen's single was so hard-hit right at Span that the Royals elected not to send the runner home from 2nd. Hernandez then got Guillen to chase a curve ball out of the zone, and retired Billy Butler on a weak grounder. Scouts take note: apparently, the only way to get Butler out is to throw him 60-MPH curve balls.
Luckily, things worked out for the Twins, and they're back to .500 and within 1 game of the division lead. Hopefully Boof Bonser can get more than 1 run of support tomorrow in a re-match of last Sunday's loss.
Span vs. Gomez
Pretty good night for both guys, though, as it was in spring training, Gomez comes out looking better. As I said, Teahen really helped him out in the 2nd, but he hustled all night and hit some balls hard on 2-strike pitches, something we've seen very little of so far. He came within a borderline call of making it 2 games in a row in which he and Young both drew walks. Span was a borderline call away from a 1-3 line. But he picked up his first RBI and OF assist (Butler needs to just be happy he's on first base vs. our OF), and he had another couple of 6-pitch ABs. Gomez had some longer ABs tonight, and Young, for that matter. Maybe Tolbert and Span are rubbing off on them.
Other thoughts:
Lousy night for Mauer, Kubel, and Lamb (2 of whom are on my fantasy team), although Mauer had a couple of hard-hit balls.
Jesse Crain wasn't out there very long, but he looked fantastic. His fastball was in the mid-90s, and his slider was sharp. He's back!
Kevin Slowey was finally placed on the DL, and Liriano is coming up to start on Sunday. He'll probably be a little rough at first, command-wise, but the Royals aren't walking very much, so maybe they'll help him out. It will be exciting to have him back in any event!
I hope Slowey is able to make a quick recovery. He was the best pitcher in AAA last season, and looked ready to take the next step this spring. When he's finally healthy, the Twins will be in great position to deal Hernandez at the top of his value and perhaps upgrade one of the infield positions.
For as sluggish as the Twins have started, they find themselves in better position than some of their more formidable rivals. With their best baseball still ahead of them, it's not a bad position to be in.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
When It Rains...
Twins 12, White Sox 5
The Twins don't have the most formidable lineup in the league - it's not even in the top 3 in the division. But it's better than 3 runs a game, so an eruption was bound to come sooner or later. Some notable things:
Jason Kubel hit a grand slam and knocked in 6 runs, his best single-game performance since last July when he hit a grand slam and knocked in 7 runs, also against the White Sox in Chicago.
The beneficiary of Kubel's finest days was, in both cases, Scott Baker. In his last 2 starts at US Cellular Field, he's allowed 10 ER in 10 IP, yet is 2-0, thanks to 32 total runs of support. Boof Bonser would kill for a quarter of that.
Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young each drew a walk! I'm going to chart how many times they walk in the same game this season. I'll bet it doesn't happen more than once a month.
Gomez had himself a fine game, despite being picked off in the first. He had 4 PAs that lasted 4 or more pitches, drew the aforementioned walk, did not strike out, and made a fine diving catch.
Every Twins starter had a hit except Adam Everett. Tolbert is starting tomorrow, right?
Congratulations to Brian Bass on his first Major League save (snicker - what a silly stat!). He allowed just 1 ER in 4 IP, saving the rest of the bullpen for a rainy day.
I hope that rainy day comes tomorrow, and keeps up for half the weekend. The Sox lineup is freaky hot right now - I don't like Livan's chances against them. Whenever the game is made up they'll almost certainly have cooled off. In addition, Slowey is still not well, and Liriano doesn't look like he's quite ready to come up yet, so an extra off day or two would be most helpful for the Twins as far as hiding their non-existent 5th starter. Where's Crash Davis when you need him?
The Twins don't have the most formidable lineup in the league - it's not even in the top 3 in the division. But it's better than 3 runs a game, so an eruption was bound to come sooner or later. Some notable things:
Jason Kubel hit a grand slam and knocked in 6 runs, his best single-game performance since last July when he hit a grand slam and knocked in 7 runs, also against the White Sox in Chicago.
The beneficiary of Kubel's finest days was, in both cases, Scott Baker. In his last 2 starts at US Cellular Field, he's allowed 10 ER in 10 IP, yet is 2-0, thanks to 32 total runs of support. Boof Bonser would kill for a quarter of that.
Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young each drew a walk! I'm going to chart how many times they walk in the same game this season. I'll bet it doesn't happen more than once a month.
Gomez had himself a fine game, despite being picked off in the first. He had 4 PAs that lasted 4 or more pitches, drew the aforementioned walk, did not strike out, and made a fine diving catch.
Every Twins starter had a hit except Adam Everett. Tolbert is starting tomorrow, right?
Congratulations to Brian Bass on his first Major League save (snicker - what a silly stat!). He allowed just 1 ER in 4 IP, saving the rest of the bullpen for a rainy day.
I hope that rainy day comes tomorrow, and keeps up for half the weekend. The Sox lineup is freaky hot right now - I don't like Livan's chances against them. Whenever the game is made up they'll almost certainly have cooled off. In addition, Slowey is still not well, and Liriano doesn't look like he's quite ready to come up yet, so an extra off day or two would be most helpful for the Twins as far as hiding their non-existent 5th starter. Where's Crash Davis when you need him?
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
No Relief
White Sox 7, Twins 4
I was watching Blackburn struggle along yesterday, not doing too much damage but certainly not looking very good, just hoping he'd somehow get us through 5 IP, which he eventually did. Gardy called on Guerrier, who has been struggling with his command so far this spring. Despite throwing a lot of balls and issuing a 2-out walk, he got through the 6th unscathed.
At that point, I tried to put myself in Gardy's shoes. You want Neshek to pitch the 8th and Nathan the 9th. But the heart of the order is coming up in the 7th, and Guerrier has been dicey so far. Crain pitched yesterday, and Rincon and Bass have had their troubles in the early-goings. Who do you count on to nurse a one-run lead through this crucial inning? I decided that the best idea would be to hope Guerrier could retire Cabrera, bring in Reyes to face Thome, and then have Neshek go after Konerko for a 4-out hold.
Guerrier did get Cabrera, but Gardy stayed with him, and his lack of control finally caught up to him. Thome walked, Konerko singled, and Neshek came in to try for a 5-out hold. Two singles and a granny later, and the game was out of reach for the Twins' still struggling offense.
Though Reyes has given up a couple of hits in his 2.1 innings, he hasn't walked anyone as yet, so I think his chances against Thome were probably better than Guerrier's. This is the first decision of Gardy's this regular season that I've really second-guessed. However, with the type of tight situations Neshek's going to be pitching in, if he's going to give up 2 singles in front of a HR in 0.2 innings, the Twins are probably going to lose no matter what else is going on. Those are the first runs he's allowed in 2008 (including spring training). I wouldn't be surprised if they're the last he gives up until May.
This game was a great illustration of how important it is to work the starting pitcher and get into the opponent's middle relief. By making Blackburn throw 90 pitches in 5 innings, the Sox put the Twins in a very uncomfortable position, where they had to stretch Guerrier a little longer than they'd like, bring in Neshek a little earlier than they'd like. Having long ABs takes the other team out of their comfort zone.
The Twins were well on their way to doing the same thing to the Sox. They had forced Javier Vazquez to throw 72 pitches through the first four innings, scoring 3 runs on 7 hits and a walk. He had 3 straight 19 pitch innings, and the 1st could have gotten there very easily had Delmon Young not followed Morneau's 5-pitch walk with a 1st-pitch GIDP. Keep that up, and he might have trouble finishing the 6th. But, after Span led off the 5th with a line-out on the 5th pitch, the next 8 batters went down in order on 21 pitches. The worst was the 6th inning, when Young flied out on the 1-0 pitch, Kubel popped out on the 1st pitch, and Harris struck out on three pitches. Blecch.
When the Twins did get into the middle relief in the 8th, they got back to business, grinding Scott Linebrink for 25 pitches, 2 hits and a walk. The damage could have been even greater had Jermaine Dye not run down Kubel's drive to the gap in right-center (second game in a row Kubel's been robbed out there).
My question is: why let up at all? Part of the reason they got 3 runs and 8 baserunners off Vazquez was the fact that they were patient and making him throw their pitch. The Sox dugout was antagonistic towards the plate umpire - he was giving the Twins good calls. Why take the pressure off the pitcher by hacking at whatever slop he serves up?
This brings us to the second phase of this post:
Span vs. Gomez
Gomez did his thing leading off the game: bunt single, SB, scored a run, 1-0 Twins. His second AB was his best of the year: 7 pitches, recovering from 1-2 to work the count full before striking out. After that, he did his other thing: 2-pitch flyout, 3-pitch strikeout, 2-pitch GIDP. Through his first 34 PAs, he has 11 hits and a walk, but also 10 K, and is averaging 3.41 pitches/PA. In 13.5% of the Twins' PAs yesterday, he saw 11.4% of the pitches thrown by the Sox.
Span had a fantastic day as the #2 hitter. He took 4 pitches in his first AB waiting for Gomez to steal, then hit behind him to advance him to third. He slapped a leadoff single on the 6th pitch for his first Major League hit in the 3rd, stole a base, but was stranded at 3rd. He led off the 5th with the aforementioned 5th-pitch liner to Crede. He led off again in the 8th, after the Twins had suffered a demoralizing 5-run rally by the Sox, and ground out a 10-pitch walk to start a rally that would eventually bring the tying run to the plate. In his 7 PAs so far, he's 1-5 with 2 BBs, 0 K, and is averaging 5.86 pitches/PA. In 10.8% of the Twins' PAs yesterday, he saw 19.7% of the pitches thrown by the Sox.
These patterns are a continuation of what we saw in spring training. Though I'm sure he won't be in the lineup against the lefty tomorrow night, I hope the Twins will give Span enough PAs to illustrate what should be clear to everyone by now: Span can help the team more right now. Stay tuned.
I was watching Blackburn struggle along yesterday, not doing too much damage but certainly not looking very good, just hoping he'd somehow get us through 5 IP, which he eventually did. Gardy called on Guerrier, who has been struggling with his command so far this spring. Despite throwing a lot of balls and issuing a 2-out walk, he got through the 6th unscathed.
At that point, I tried to put myself in Gardy's shoes. You want Neshek to pitch the 8th and Nathan the 9th. But the heart of the order is coming up in the 7th, and Guerrier has been dicey so far. Crain pitched yesterday, and Rincon and Bass have had their troubles in the early-goings. Who do you count on to nurse a one-run lead through this crucial inning? I decided that the best idea would be to hope Guerrier could retire Cabrera, bring in Reyes to face Thome, and then have Neshek go after Konerko for a 4-out hold.
Guerrier did get Cabrera, but Gardy stayed with him, and his lack of control finally caught up to him. Thome walked, Konerko singled, and Neshek came in to try for a 5-out hold. Two singles and a granny later, and the game was out of reach for the Twins' still struggling offense.
Though Reyes has given up a couple of hits in his 2.1 innings, he hasn't walked anyone as yet, so I think his chances against Thome were probably better than Guerrier's. This is the first decision of Gardy's this regular season that I've really second-guessed. However, with the type of tight situations Neshek's going to be pitching in, if he's going to give up 2 singles in front of a HR in 0.2 innings, the Twins are probably going to lose no matter what else is going on. Those are the first runs he's allowed in 2008 (including spring training). I wouldn't be surprised if they're the last he gives up until May.
This game was a great illustration of how important it is to work the starting pitcher and get into the opponent's middle relief. By making Blackburn throw 90 pitches in 5 innings, the Sox put the Twins in a very uncomfortable position, where they had to stretch Guerrier a little longer than they'd like, bring in Neshek a little earlier than they'd like. Having long ABs takes the other team out of their comfort zone.
The Twins were well on their way to doing the same thing to the Sox. They had forced Javier Vazquez to throw 72 pitches through the first four innings, scoring 3 runs on 7 hits and a walk. He had 3 straight 19 pitch innings, and the 1st could have gotten there very easily had Delmon Young not followed Morneau's 5-pitch walk with a 1st-pitch GIDP. Keep that up, and he might have trouble finishing the 6th. But, after Span led off the 5th with a line-out on the 5th pitch, the next 8 batters went down in order on 21 pitches. The worst was the 6th inning, when Young flied out on the 1-0 pitch, Kubel popped out on the 1st pitch, and Harris struck out on three pitches. Blecch.
When the Twins did get into the middle relief in the 8th, they got back to business, grinding Scott Linebrink for 25 pitches, 2 hits and a walk. The damage could have been even greater had Jermaine Dye not run down Kubel's drive to the gap in right-center (second game in a row Kubel's been robbed out there).
My question is: why let up at all? Part of the reason they got 3 runs and 8 baserunners off Vazquez was the fact that they were patient and making him throw their pitch. The Sox dugout was antagonistic towards the plate umpire - he was giving the Twins good calls. Why take the pressure off the pitcher by hacking at whatever slop he serves up?
This brings us to the second phase of this post:
Span vs. Gomez
Gomez did his thing leading off the game: bunt single, SB, scored a run, 1-0 Twins. His second AB was his best of the year: 7 pitches, recovering from 1-2 to work the count full before striking out. After that, he did his other thing: 2-pitch flyout, 3-pitch strikeout, 2-pitch GIDP. Through his first 34 PAs, he has 11 hits and a walk, but also 10 K, and is averaging 3.41 pitches/PA. In 13.5% of the Twins' PAs yesterday, he saw 11.4% of the pitches thrown by the Sox.
Span had a fantastic day as the #2 hitter. He took 4 pitches in his first AB waiting for Gomez to steal, then hit behind him to advance him to third. He slapped a leadoff single on the 6th pitch for his first Major League hit in the 3rd, stole a base, but was stranded at 3rd. He led off the 5th with the aforementioned 5th-pitch liner to Crede. He led off again in the 8th, after the Twins had suffered a demoralizing 5-run rally by the Sox, and ground out a 10-pitch walk to start a rally that would eventually bring the tying run to the plate. In his 7 PAs so far, he's 1-5 with 2 BBs, 0 K, and is averaging 5.86 pitches/PA. In 10.8% of the Twins' PAs yesterday, he saw 19.7% of the pitches thrown by the Sox.
These patterns are a continuation of what we saw in spring training. Though I'm sure he won't be in the lineup against the lefty tomorrow night, I hope the Twins will give Span enough PAs to illustrate what should be clear to everyone by now: Span can help the team more right now. Stay tuned.
Monday, April 7, 2008
Justin Time
Twins 6, Royals 4
Royals 3, Twins 1
Great to see the Justin Morneau who signed the big contract finally appear in the lineup. His excellent offensive weekend paved the way to a series win. I got to see most of both games on TV (Sunday in HD - ooooooooh), and noticed some interesting things:
Livan Hernandez is doing his typical April thing. He only gave up a couple of hard-hit balls on Saturday - one when he apparently lost his concentration after a balk (the next pitch was smoked to the wall for a triple). I can't believe he physically tires out as the season goes along, so maybe his problem is mental. Anyway, two 7-inning quality starts, just what he's supposed to do. Should be worth something in a trade later on.
Matt Guerrier needs to stop throwing so many balls. He got away with it again, pitching around a cheap 2-out infield hit and error by Everett. Everett needs to step it up in the infield. The infield hit was a slow chopper up the middle. As he converged on the ball, running toward first base, Tolbert cut in front of him and threw across his body while running toward third base. The shortstop has an easier, shorter throw there, perhaps the difference between safe by half a step and out by half a step. Everett has to call Tolbert off - not only is he captain of the infield, he's played 7 years in the bigs - Tolbert hasn't even played seven games.
Mauer, Morneau and Kubel all swung the bats well this weekend. No surprise there. The surprise is how well Tolbert is swinging. Thanks to his hot start and Harris' flu, Tolbert has nearly as many plate appearances as Everett and Harris. Notice who doesn't have a lot of PAs? Nick Punto, 1 for 3 on the week. All of you who thought Gardy would insist on playing Punto over better hitters owe the skipper an apology.
Boof was solid again on Sunday. He pitched better than Tomko - the reason he gave up more runs is he gave up hits early in the inning, while Tomko was generally able to retire the leadoff hitter.
Which brings us to Carlos Gomez. How interesting to have him and Span hitting back-to-back again. In Gomez' first AB last Monday, he pulled a grounder just fair over third base for a double. In Span's first AB Sunday, he pulled a grounder just foul over first base. Couldn't have been more than an inch foul. Span worked the count full before being retired when Tomko leaped up to stop his bouncer up the middle. He drew a full-count walk in his second AB, then was retired on a sliding stop by the second baseman on an 0-2 swing.
Gomez, meanwhile, on his only base hit of the weekend, a leadoff slicing single to very short right field in the third, got himself thrown out trying to stretch it to a double. Though right fielder Guillen had a long way to run for the ball, he has an excellent throwing arm, and Gomez was easily nailed at second. Two disturbing things about this:
1: do you not know how good the RFs arm is?
2: you're Carlos Gomez - you're going to steal second by the third pitch of the next AB anyway.
He just consistently outruns his brain. Plus, he's struck out 8 times in his first 29 PAs, walking just once. Four of those strikeouts have come on 3 pitches. Span saw 15 pitches in his 3 PAs Sunday. I'll keep tabs on them throughout Cuddy's DL stay.
Lots of good news on the pitching front this home stand. With the exception of the injured Kevin Slowey, each starter pitched at least 6 innings. Even if you throw Slowey in there, the average start this week was 6.1 IP, 3.89 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 2 HR, 1 BB(!), 21 K. That ought to do a lot better than 3-4. But, when the offense averages 2.7 run/game, 3.89 from the starters can be too much to overcome. Too many DPs, too many quick ABs, not enough walks, not enough homers. I'm most concerned about Mr. Lamb after this weekend - he looked awful yesterday, particularly when he dove at a 2-0 changeup with a RISP in the 2nd.
This week the Twins start their road schedule in Chicago. Javier Vazquez has given the Twins trouble in the past, but if Blackburn can back up his performance from last Wednesday, the Twins should be in the game. After an off-day Tuesday, it'll be Baker vs. LHP John Danks, followed by a historic Hernandez/Contreras matchup in the finale. Should be quite a competition to see who can throw the slowest pitch. I hope Gardy will be ready to turn loose the running game on Pierzynski - should be able to steal 3-4 bases/game.
Not a great start to the season, true. But better than the Tigers!
Royals 3, Twins 1
Great to see the Justin Morneau who signed the big contract finally appear in the lineup. His excellent offensive weekend paved the way to a series win. I got to see most of both games on TV (Sunday in HD - ooooooooh), and noticed some interesting things:
Livan Hernandez is doing his typical April thing. He only gave up a couple of hard-hit balls on Saturday - one when he apparently lost his concentration after a balk (the next pitch was smoked to the wall for a triple). I can't believe he physically tires out as the season goes along, so maybe his problem is mental. Anyway, two 7-inning quality starts, just what he's supposed to do. Should be worth something in a trade later on.
Matt Guerrier needs to stop throwing so many balls. He got away with it again, pitching around a cheap 2-out infield hit and error by Everett. Everett needs to step it up in the infield. The infield hit was a slow chopper up the middle. As he converged on the ball, running toward first base, Tolbert cut in front of him and threw across his body while running toward third base. The shortstop has an easier, shorter throw there, perhaps the difference between safe by half a step and out by half a step. Everett has to call Tolbert off - not only is he captain of the infield, he's played 7 years in the bigs - Tolbert hasn't even played seven games.
Mauer, Morneau and Kubel all swung the bats well this weekend. No surprise there. The surprise is how well Tolbert is swinging. Thanks to his hot start and Harris' flu, Tolbert has nearly as many plate appearances as Everett and Harris. Notice who doesn't have a lot of PAs? Nick Punto, 1 for 3 on the week. All of you who thought Gardy would insist on playing Punto over better hitters owe the skipper an apology.
Boof was solid again on Sunday. He pitched better than Tomko - the reason he gave up more runs is he gave up hits early in the inning, while Tomko was generally able to retire the leadoff hitter.
Which brings us to Carlos Gomez. How interesting to have him and Span hitting back-to-back again. In Gomez' first AB last Monday, he pulled a grounder just fair over third base for a double. In Span's first AB Sunday, he pulled a grounder just foul over first base. Couldn't have been more than an inch foul. Span worked the count full before being retired when Tomko leaped up to stop his bouncer up the middle. He drew a full-count walk in his second AB, then was retired on a sliding stop by the second baseman on an 0-2 swing.
Gomez, meanwhile, on his only base hit of the weekend, a leadoff slicing single to very short right field in the third, got himself thrown out trying to stretch it to a double. Though right fielder Guillen had a long way to run for the ball, he has an excellent throwing arm, and Gomez was easily nailed at second. Two disturbing things about this:
1: do you not know how good the RFs arm is?
2: you're Carlos Gomez - you're going to steal second by the third pitch of the next AB anyway.
He just consistently outruns his brain. Plus, he's struck out 8 times in his first 29 PAs, walking just once. Four of those strikeouts have come on 3 pitches. Span saw 15 pitches in his 3 PAs Sunday. I'll keep tabs on them throughout Cuddy's DL stay.
Lots of good news on the pitching front this home stand. With the exception of the injured Kevin Slowey, each starter pitched at least 6 innings. Even if you throw Slowey in there, the average start this week was 6.1 IP, 3.89 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 2 HR, 1 BB(!), 21 K. That ought to do a lot better than 3-4. But, when the offense averages 2.7 run/game, 3.89 from the starters can be too much to overcome. Too many DPs, too many quick ABs, not enough walks, not enough homers. I'm most concerned about Mr. Lamb after this weekend - he looked awful yesterday, particularly when he dove at a 2-0 changeup with a RISP in the 2nd.
This week the Twins start their road schedule in Chicago. Javier Vazquez has given the Twins trouble in the past, but if Blackburn can back up his performance from last Wednesday, the Twins should be in the game. After an off-day Tuesday, it'll be Baker vs. LHP John Danks, followed by a historic Hernandez/Contreras matchup in the finale. Should be quite a competition to see who can throw the slowest pitch. I hope Gardy will be ready to turn loose the running game on Pierzynski - should be able to steal 3-4 bases/game.
Not a great start to the season, true. But better than the Tigers!
Saturday, April 5, 2008
Small Ballers
Twins 4, Royals 3
Another solid game for the pitching staff, and some good hitting and aggressive base running led to the win.
Scott Baker really labored in the first 2 innings. I thought the game was going to last 4 hours the way he was going. Credit the KC hitters for spoiling a lot of pitches and laying off others. So many 5+ pitch ABs. And when they did put them in play, they fell in. Thinking about Slowey's short start yesterday, I wasn't sure what the bullpen was going to do if Baker didn't make it to the 6th. But he settled in, setting down 11 in a row after John Buck's RBI single in the 2nd. The Royals helped out by swinging early in the count and putting balls in play. In the end, despite a rather tight pitch count, Baker managed to pitch 6.2 innings, enough for Neshek and Nathan to take it the rest of the way.
Carlos Gomez had another good game. He got a bunt hit leading off, stole second and scored on Mauer's single. He got another infield hit in the 4th, stole second again, but was stranded when Mauer grounded out. Then he drilled a double in his last AB. He is having about as good a first week with the Twins as anyone could have hoped.
Morneau finally got a hit and another RBI, though Cuddyer was injured on the play while sliding into 3rd. Kubel pinch ran and scored on a groundout by Young. In his other 3 ABs, Morneau struck out and hit into 2 DPs. He's not quite out of the woods yet.
I enjoyed the sequence of events in the 4th inning. Lamb led off with a double, Tolbert sacrificed him to third, then Everett brought him home with a suicide squeeze. Many will deride the use of two sacrifices in an inning, but with light-hitting middle infielders coming up, and Gomez not yet accomplished at hitting with men in scoring position, it was good to see the bottom of the order produce a run using their higher percentage skills.
With Cuddyer headed to the 15-day DL, Denard Span will get his first taste of the Majors this weekend. Whether Gardy will want Kubel to be the RF most of the time, or LF and switch Young to RF, or put Span in CF and move Gomez to RF (as was the case in several spring training games) remains to be seen. If he doesn't start, Span will certainly get some opportunities as a pinch-runner or defensive replacement for Kubel. I thought he earned a spot on the roster in the first place, so I'm happy to see him get a chance so soon, though, obviously, these aren't the best circumstances. Hopefully, he will acquit himself well, and at least prove that he has some value in a future trade.
Another solid game for the pitching staff, and some good hitting and aggressive base running led to the win.
Scott Baker really labored in the first 2 innings. I thought the game was going to last 4 hours the way he was going. Credit the KC hitters for spoiling a lot of pitches and laying off others. So many 5+ pitch ABs. And when they did put them in play, they fell in. Thinking about Slowey's short start yesterday, I wasn't sure what the bullpen was going to do if Baker didn't make it to the 6th. But he settled in, setting down 11 in a row after John Buck's RBI single in the 2nd. The Royals helped out by swinging early in the count and putting balls in play. In the end, despite a rather tight pitch count, Baker managed to pitch 6.2 innings, enough for Neshek and Nathan to take it the rest of the way.
Carlos Gomez had another good game. He got a bunt hit leading off, stole second and scored on Mauer's single. He got another infield hit in the 4th, stole second again, but was stranded when Mauer grounded out. Then he drilled a double in his last AB. He is having about as good a first week with the Twins as anyone could have hoped.
Morneau finally got a hit and another RBI, though Cuddyer was injured on the play while sliding into 3rd. Kubel pinch ran and scored on a groundout by Young. In his other 3 ABs, Morneau struck out and hit into 2 DPs. He's not quite out of the woods yet.
I enjoyed the sequence of events in the 4th inning. Lamb led off with a double, Tolbert sacrificed him to third, then Everett brought him home with a suicide squeeze. Many will deride the use of two sacrifices in an inning, but with light-hitting middle infielders coming up, and Gomez not yet accomplished at hitting with men in scoring position, it was good to see the bottom of the order produce a run using their higher percentage skills.
With Cuddyer headed to the 15-day DL, Denard Span will get his first taste of the Majors this weekend. Whether Gardy will want Kubel to be the RF most of the time, or LF and switch Young to RF, or put Span in CF and move Gomez to RF (as was the case in several spring training games) remains to be seen. If he doesn't start, Span will certainly get some opportunities as a pinch-runner or defensive replacement for Kubel. I thought he earned a spot on the roster in the first place, so I'm happy to see him get a chance so soon, though, obviously, these aren't the best circumstances. Hopefully, he will acquit himself well, and at least prove that he has some value in a future trade.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Last Year's Model
Angels 5, Twins 4
Greetings from my spiffy new (refurbished) Intel Macbook. I heard a quip on NPR's "Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me" a few weeks back to the effect that the only person more smug than a Mac-using Obama supporter is a Mac-using Obama supporter who listens to public radio. I guess that pretty much makes me the smuggest person in the world. I knew I would be.
Anyway, all of this magnificent Leopard-ness is almost enough to make me forget the the disappointment of this opening series between the Twins and Angels. I felt that the Twins had an excellent chance to win these last two games. Two 1-run losses. The tying run aboard in each case. How to make sense of it? Well...
I hope Slowey is OK. I'm counting on him to be perhaps the most consistent member of the rotation this year, so he needs to be healthy. And no more home runs. That goes for the bullpen as well.
As Bass went out for the start of the 7th inning, I thought back to his spring training start a couple weeks ago, when he was great for 3 innings then got whacked in the 4th. When he took the mound for the 7th today, he was at 2.2 innings. I might have brought in Rincon there. Anyway, he was tired, and he fell behind Torii and Napoli and gave back the 2 runs the Twins had scrounged so hard (for 3 days) to produce. Note for the future - let's try to keep Bass to under 3 innings.
I was pleased to see Reyes succeed in bailing out Rincon in the 8th. 3 appearances, 1 IP, 1 H, 1 K, 0 R. Not too shabby. Then he came out for the 9th to face Torii. I was surprised to see him in there against a righty, but he struck him out. Hah! 2 quick strikes on Kotchman, and I was thinking about how good he looked, when he hung an 0-2 slider and gave up a double. Note for the future - when the batter swings and misses at a filthy slider out of the zone, do not throw the next pitch in the zone.
Guerrier came in and bailed out Reyes, but he threw a ton of balls doing it. Walked one and was 3-2 on the #9 hitter before he got out of it. I hope he finds his command soon. For all that drama, Reyes and Guerrier escaped the series without allowing any runs.
Offensively, it was all the same as the previous 2 games through 5 innings. Particularly early, when Santana needed only 19 pitches to get through the first 2 innings. He cruised through 5 shutout innings. This is a pitcher who came into the game with a career road ERA over 7.00.
Finally, in the 6th, the Twins ground out some productive ABs, Mauer following a Gomez hit with an RBI double, Cuddyer grounding him over, Morneau hitting a SF (a ball out of the infield!). In the 7th, against Darren Oliver, Mauer delivered a SF. In the 8th, Kubel hit the Twins' first HR of 2008. Base runners every inning. This is why the Twins should have been working harder to get to the Angels' weakened bullpen.
In the 9th, pinch-hitter Matt Tolbert once again showed considerable discipline by drawing a walk as the potential tying run (though he should have taken the 1-0 pith in that situation). Gomez showed he had no better chance swinging away against K-Rod than bunting. Then, with 2 out, and first base open, Angels manager Mike Scioscia did a remarkable thing: he intentionally walked Joe Mauer, thereby putting the winning run on. Cuddyer worked the count full, ensuring that both baserunners would have a running start and would certainly tie the game on a single, win it on a double. But Cuddyer struck out swinging.
The Twins pitchers allowed 15 ER to the Angels, a 3.75 team ERA for the series. That was only good for one win, because the offense took 26 innings off in the middle of the series. The undisciplined, quick ABs, the DPs, the lack of power, the solid pitching performances wasted. Despite 5 new faces in the lineup, the 2008 Twins bore more than a passing resemblance to last year's model in this series.
Greetings from my spiffy new (refurbished) Intel Macbook. I heard a quip on NPR's "Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me" a few weeks back to the effect that the only person more smug than a Mac-using Obama supporter is a Mac-using Obama supporter who listens to public radio. I guess that pretty much makes me the smuggest person in the world. I knew I would be.
Anyway, all of this magnificent Leopard-ness is almost enough to make me forget the the disappointment of this opening series between the Twins and Angels. I felt that the Twins had an excellent chance to win these last two games. Two 1-run losses. The tying run aboard in each case. How to make sense of it? Well...
I hope Slowey is OK. I'm counting on him to be perhaps the most consistent member of the rotation this year, so he needs to be healthy. And no more home runs. That goes for the bullpen as well.
As Bass went out for the start of the 7th inning, I thought back to his spring training start a couple weeks ago, when he was great for 3 innings then got whacked in the 4th. When he took the mound for the 7th today, he was at 2.2 innings. I might have brought in Rincon there. Anyway, he was tired, and he fell behind Torii and Napoli and gave back the 2 runs the Twins had scrounged so hard (for 3 days) to produce. Note for the future - let's try to keep Bass to under 3 innings.
I was pleased to see Reyes succeed in bailing out Rincon in the 8th. 3 appearances, 1 IP, 1 H, 1 K, 0 R. Not too shabby. Then he came out for the 9th to face Torii. I was surprised to see him in there against a righty, but he struck him out. Hah! 2 quick strikes on Kotchman, and I was thinking about how good he looked, when he hung an 0-2 slider and gave up a double. Note for the future - when the batter swings and misses at a filthy slider out of the zone, do not throw the next pitch in the zone.
Guerrier came in and bailed out Reyes, but he threw a ton of balls doing it. Walked one and was 3-2 on the #9 hitter before he got out of it. I hope he finds his command soon. For all that drama, Reyes and Guerrier escaped the series without allowing any runs.
Offensively, it was all the same as the previous 2 games through 5 innings. Particularly early, when Santana needed only 19 pitches to get through the first 2 innings. He cruised through 5 shutout innings. This is a pitcher who came into the game with a career road ERA over 7.00.
Finally, in the 6th, the Twins ground out some productive ABs, Mauer following a Gomez hit with an RBI double, Cuddyer grounding him over, Morneau hitting a SF (a ball out of the infield!). In the 7th, against Darren Oliver, Mauer delivered a SF. In the 8th, Kubel hit the Twins' first HR of 2008. Base runners every inning. This is why the Twins should have been working harder to get to the Angels' weakened bullpen.
In the 9th, pinch-hitter Matt Tolbert once again showed considerable discipline by drawing a walk as the potential tying run (though he should have taken the 1-0 pith in that situation). Gomez showed he had no better chance swinging away against K-Rod than bunting. Then, with 2 out, and first base open, Angels manager Mike Scioscia did a remarkable thing: he intentionally walked Joe Mauer, thereby putting the winning run on. Cuddyer worked the count full, ensuring that both baserunners would have a running start and would certainly tie the game on a single, win it on a double. But Cuddyer struck out swinging.
The Twins pitchers allowed 15 ER to the Angels, a 3.75 team ERA for the series. That was only good for one win, because the offense took 26 innings off in the middle of the series. The undisciplined, quick ABs, the DPs, the lack of power, the solid pitching performances wasted. Despite 5 new faces in the lineup, the 2008 Twins bore more than a passing resemblance to last year's model in this series.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Shooting Blanks
Angels 1, Twins 0
Well, crap. As much as I don't mind blowout losses like Tuesday night, I can't stand to lose well-pitched games.
I want to start by accentuating the positive:
Nick Blackburn had a stupendous debut, everything the Twins could have asked from him. He showed more calm in the early-going than Bonser did last night. He settled in and retired 11 in a row through the middle innings. If not for an unfortunate carom from a curveball in the dirt, he might have matched Saunders' performance. If Blackburn can back this performance up with another good one against the White Sox next Monday, he'll give the Twins the luxury of easing Liriano back up to the Show at whatever pace the situation dictates. Extra pressure on Slowey now to deliver, but I think he's up to it.
The defense was very good tonight. Everett had to skip the game to deal with a family emergency, but Tolbert was solid in his place, and Punto did what he does best: play solid defense. And each of them picked up one of the 4 Twins hits. It was great to see Tolbert have the discipline to take a strike leading off the ninth - I might have been tempted to bat Mauer right there, but the kid got himself on base with a 4-pitch walk.
The bullpen, despite a dicey 8th inning, held the Angels scoreless. Tonight, brought in once again to face a lefty with runners in scoring position, Reyes got the ground-ball double play. Neshek was perfect in his inning.
The bad news, of course, is the offense (or lack thereof). If Batgirl were here, I'm sure she'd be saying something about Ass-bats. 4 runs in 26 innings of batting against the Angels 3rd, 4th and 5th best starters is disconcerting to say the least. Tonight, the Twins managed to get only one batter past first base, promptly grounding into DPs in the few occasions they put someone on. Morneau and Monroe remain hitless in the series. Carlos Gomez failed to advance Tolbert in the 9th when he bunted foul three straight times.
Most upsetting to me, Saunders needed only 80 pitches to complete 8 innings. When a pitcher is on his game, the best defense is to make him throw a lot of pitches. Work counts, foul balls off. With Scott Shields and Chris Bootcheck on the DL, the Angels' middle relief is particularly weak in this series. Getting to them should be an integral part of the game plan. Grounding out on the first, second or third pitch offered isn't going to make that happen.
Ervin Santana had lousy road splits for the Angels last year, and the Twins' offense has to get it going eventually. Mauer, Lamb and Kubel will likely be back in the starting lineup, so I still like the team's chances tomorrow. But it wouldn't have taken very much more tonight to make Thursday's game into a series win instead of a split.
Well, crap. As much as I don't mind blowout losses like Tuesday night, I can't stand to lose well-pitched games.
I want to start by accentuating the positive:
Nick Blackburn had a stupendous debut, everything the Twins could have asked from him. He showed more calm in the early-going than Bonser did last night. He settled in and retired 11 in a row through the middle innings. If not for an unfortunate carom from a curveball in the dirt, he might have matched Saunders' performance. If Blackburn can back this performance up with another good one against the White Sox next Monday, he'll give the Twins the luxury of easing Liriano back up to the Show at whatever pace the situation dictates. Extra pressure on Slowey now to deliver, but I think he's up to it.
The defense was very good tonight. Everett had to skip the game to deal with a family emergency, but Tolbert was solid in his place, and Punto did what he does best: play solid defense. And each of them picked up one of the 4 Twins hits. It was great to see Tolbert have the discipline to take a strike leading off the ninth - I might have been tempted to bat Mauer right there, but the kid got himself on base with a 4-pitch walk.
The bullpen, despite a dicey 8th inning, held the Angels scoreless. Tonight, brought in once again to face a lefty with runners in scoring position, Reyes got the ground-ball double play. Neshek was perfect in his inning.
The bad news, of course, is the offense (or lack thereof). If Batgirl were here, I'm sure she'd be saying something about Ass-bats. 4 runs in 26 innings of batting against the Angels 3rd, 4th and 5th best starters is disconcerting to say the least. Tonight, the Twins managed to get only one batter past first base, promptly grounding into DPs in the few occasions they put someone on. Morneau and Monroe remain hitless in the series. Carlos Gomez failed to advance Tolbert in the 9th when he bunted foul three straight times.
Most upsetting to me, Saunders needed only 80 pitches to complete 8 innings. When a pitcher is on his game, the best defense is to make him throw a lot of pitches. Work counts, foul balls off. With Scott Shields and Chris Bootcheck on the DL, the Angels' middle relief is particularly weak in this series. Getting to them should be an integral part of the game plan. Grounding out on the first, second or third pitch offered isn't going to make that happen.
Ervin Santana had lousy road splits for the Angels last year, and the Twins' offense has to get it going eventually. Mauer, Lamb and Kubel will likely be back in the starting lineup, so I still like the team's chances tomorrow. But it wouldn't have taken very much more tonight to make Thursday's game into a series win instead of a split.
Everybody Hurts
Angels 9, Twins 1
Great game to turn off last night. My laptop battery mercifully ran out of juice in the top of the 9th.
I can't remember the last time the Twins played a series against the Angels in which there wasn't at least one game where everything fell in for the Halos. I'm not suggesting they didn't earn most of their hits, but there were a couple of 50-foot bleeders mixed in for good measure. That's fine - they'll almost certainly collect fewer than 15 hits tonight and Thursday.
I was glad that the lineup (minus Delmon Young), defense, and every member of the bullpen chose last night to suck. If you're only going to score 1 run, you might as well give up nine and throw in a couple of errors. I would expect everyone who pitched last night to be more effective their next time out.
Boof, in particular, was pretty good anyway. He needed 4 batters to get through his first-start-of-the-year jitters. After that, he allowed 1 ER on 5 hits (one a cheapie) with 4 Ks and no walks in 5.2 innings. Hopefully, in his next start, he won't give up so many extra-base hits.
The Twins will face a left-handed starter tonight, and I'm interested to see the lineup that Gardy puts together. In his brief career so far, righties have hit Mr. Saunders considerably better than lefties, so I'm sure Monroe will DH. I'd like to see Redmond catching tonight and Friday night, when KC is scheduled to start a LHP. With day games on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday, it would seem to make sense to put Mauer on the day schedule anyway. Will Lamb still be in the lineup? Punto historically has been weaker (gulp) against lefties. Maybe Tolbert will get the start.
I like the Twins' chances the rest of this series. Blackburn and Slowey have at least as much potential as the Angels' starters. And with only 4 runs (and 0 HRs) in two games, there's plenty of room for the Twins' lineup to get hitting - especially Morneau (0-7). The Twins are very fortunate to be facing the Angels at a time when their pitching staff is so weakened by injuries. The Twins should be able to at least pull off a split against a stronger team, though they will probably be outscored in the process.
Great game to turn off last night. My laptop battery mercifully ran out of juice in the top of the 9th.
I can't remember the last time the Twins played a series against the Angels in which there wasn't at least one game where everything fell in for the Halos. I'm not suggesting they didn't earn most of their hits, but there were a couple of 50-foot bleeders mixed in for good measure. That's fine - they'll almost certainly collect fewer than 15 hits tonight and Thursday.
I was glad that the lineup (minus Delmon Young), defense, and every member of the bullpen chose last night to suck. If you're only going to score 1 run, you might as well give up nine and throw in a couple of errors. I would expect everyone who pitched last night to be more effective their next time out.
Boof, in particular, was pretty good anyway. He needed 4 batters to get through his first-start-of-the-year jitters. After that, he allowed 1 ER on 5 hits (one a cheapie) with 4 Ks and no walks in 5.2 innings. Hopefully, in his next start, he won't give up so many extra-base hits.
The Twins will face a left-handed starter tonight, and I'm interested to see the lineup that Gardy puts together. In his brief career so far, righties have hit Mr. Saunders considerably better than lefties, so I'm sure Monroe will DH. I'd like to see Redmond catching tonight and Friday night, when KC is scheduled to start a LHP. With day games on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday, it would seem to make sense to put Mauer on the day schedule anyway. Will Lamb still be in the lineup? Punto historically has been weaker (gulp) against lefties. Maybe Tolbert will get the start.
I like the Twins' chances the rest of this series. Blackburn and Slowey have at least as much potential as the Angels' starters. And with only 4 runs (and 0 HRs) in two games, there's plenty of room for the Twins' lineup to get hitting - especially Morneau (0-7). The Twins are very fortunate to be facing the Angels at a time when their pitching staff is so weakened by injuries. The Twins should be able to at least pull off a split against a stronger team, though they will probably be outscored in the process.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Right Foot Forward
Twins 3, Angels 2
Just the way they drew it up! This Twins team, like so many in the recent past, has been built to win 3-2 games. Tonight's win came thanks to some of the new faces. Notably:
Carlos Gomez
By the end of spring training, I was used to thinking that Gomez was out once he got two strikes on him. I credit him for, first of all, taking a strike in his first AB, and especially for getting a 2-strike double in the first (thanks also to Weaver for hanging a slider). We know when he gets on, he's going to steal, and can possibly beat a throw even if it's a pitch-out. He might have drawn two walks in this game had he had the discipline to lay off a 3-2 slider in the 7th.
Livan Hernandez
After one game, Livan has matched Santana in IP and ERA. His sinker was working well, and he moved the ball around, changing speeds. It helps that the Angels aren't a particularly patient hitting team. He got hit pretty hard the second time through the order, but Hunter's line-out double play saved him, and kept the damage to just 2 runs in the 5th. This does make me hopeful that he can have a solid start to the year, and his trade value will be reasonably high at the beginning of summer.
Delmon Young
2-4 with a run scored and a steal, and nearly threw out Chone Figgins at second on a double into the LF corner. If a speedster like Figgins only barely beats Young's throw, I think we'll see a lot of other guys just settle for singles. Young is going to have to quit hacking at the first pitch, though.
Some other quick thoughts:
Mauer did a great job in the #2 slot, advancing Gomez every time he was on base, with an RBI single in the 1st and groundouts in the 3rd and 5th.
Neshek and Nathan were both terrific, each allowing only a cheap 2-out hit. 1-0 when leading after 7 innings.
Great to see the Twins steal 4 bases. I don't know why the aggressiveness they showed at the start of last season, when they stole 19 bases in a row, faded over the course of the year. They're more likely to win when they run the bases like that.
Pretty good defense from everybody.
I don't expect these performances night in and night out. But it's a nice start.
Just the way they drew it up! This Twins team, like so many in the recent past, has been built to win 3-2 games. Tonight's win came thanks to some of the new faces. Notably:
Carlos Gomez
By the end of spring training, I was used to thinking that Gomez was out once he got two strikes on him. I credit him for, first of all, taking a strike in his first AB, and especially for getting a 2-strike double in the first (thanks also to Weaver for hanging a slider). We know when he gets on, he's going to steal, and can possibly beat a throw even if it's a pitch-out. He might have drawn two walks in this game had he had the discipline to lay off a 3-2 slider in the 7th.
Livan Hernandez
After one game, Livan has matched Santana in IP and ERA. His sinker was working well, and he moved the ball around, changing speeds. It helps that the Angels aren't a particularly patient hitting team. He got hit pretty hard the second time through the order, but Hunter's line-out double play saved him, and kept the damage to just 2 runs in the 5th. This does make me hopeful that he can have a solid start to the year, and his trade value will be reasonably high at the beginning of summer.
Delmon Young
2-4 with a run scored and a steal, and nearly threw out Chone Figgins at second on a double into the LF corner. If a speedster like Figgins only barely beats Young's throw, I think we'll see a lot of other guys just settle for singles. Young is going to have to quit hacking at the first pitch, though.
Some other quick thoughts:
Mauer did a great job in the #2 slot, advancing Gomez every time he was on base, with an RBI single in the 1st and groundouts in the 3rd and 5th.
Neshek and Nathan were both terrific, each allowing only a cheap 2-out hit. 1-0 when leading after 7 innings.
Great to see the Twins steal 4 bases. I don't know why the aggressiveness they showed at the start of last season, when they stole 19 bases in a row, faded over the course of the year. They're more likely to win when they run the bases like that.
Pretty good defense from everybody.
I don't expect these performances night in and night out. But it's a nice start.
Monday, March 31, 2008
Lucky Guesses
As everyone makes their picks for playoff teams and division finishes, I want to ruminate a bit on the most important quality of a champion:
Luck.
I'd like to be able to say that having good players and coaches matters more. Certainly, having great players and wise managing decisions improves a team's odds of success. But playing well isn't enough. The best team does not necessarily win the championship. Just ask the 2006 Mets and Tigers. The champion is the team that plays well enough at the right time and gets the breaks.
Example: The Red Sox were the best team in baseball last year by a lot of measures. Yet they were nearly beaten by the Indians. In the 7th game of the series, a ball hit just fair over 3rd base caromed off the wall into no-man's land in short left field. With speedy Kenny Lofton on second base, the Sox were helpless to stop him from coming home with the tying run. But he didn't come home, because the 3rd base coach inexplicably held him up. The Indians stranded him there, and the Sox went on to pad the lead and win the game.
How would that game have been different if Lofton had scored there? What a huge momentum change and emotional lift for the Indians! But the Sox didn't have to face it, not because they did something right, but because the Indians screwed up. Lucky.
Example: On their march to the post-season, the Indians had an incredible succession of breaks, culminating in a plague of insects descending on the Yankees in game 2 of the Divisional Series. Another break you may not be aware of: while Scott Baker was pitching his near-perfect game at the end of August, I was in Chicago for a friend's wedding. The White Sox-Indians game was on in the pizza joint where we had dinner. Trailing 5-2 in the bottom of the 8th, the Indians had runners at the corners with 2 outs. The batter hit a lazy two-hopper to short - inning over, say hello to Bobby Jenks in the 9th! Except that the second hop hit some sort of divot on the infield dirt and bounced about ten feet to the right. The SS, who was in the correct fielding position for a normal bounce, could do nothing to prevent the ball from rolling into left field. A run scored, the inning extended, and the Indians would rally to take the lead and win the game.
I give the Indians credit for making that extra out count and stringing a couple more good ABs together when they had the opportunity. They were a very good team last year, and should be again in 2008. But the White Sox deserved to be out of that inning with a 3-run lead to hand to their closer. The only reason the Indians had the opportunity to be so good that night: luck.
The Rockies, as well as they played last September, needed a dicey call by the home plate ump to make the playoffs. The White Sox got their own dicey plate-ump call in the 2005 ALCS. The 2006 Cardinals were perhaps the weakest team to ever win the World Series. How lucky were they that the Tigers' pitchers threw the ball all over the infield? That Granderson slipped and fell in center field? As for the magnificent 2006 Twins: when Nick Punto is hitting .290 and Dennys Reyes has a 0.89 ERA, things are probably falling your way.
Predictions about pennant races may be based on reputation and past performance of players, or more scientific methods like PECOTA or Pythagorean scoring. Those metrics are usually close, but in the cases where they're off, dumb luck is the biggest reason. Crazy things happen in the course of a baseball game that have nothing to do with the ability and performance of the players. There is no way to predict which teams will benefit, and which will be harmed.
I made some projections about numbers I expect the Twins players to put up. Over the course of a long season and career, one can make reasonably educated guesses about an expected statistical performance. But when it comes to predicting wins and losses, the numbers don't tell the whole story. It's not just how many runs you score, but when you score them. That's how Seattle and Arizona could be way over .500 despite allowing about as many runs as they put up.
So when I'm asked who I think will win in 2008, I feel like what I'm really being asked is, "Who do I think will be luckiest this year?"
(Shrug) Why not Tampa?
Luck.
I'd like to be able to say that having good players and coaches matters more. Certainly, having great players and wise managing decisions improves a team's odds of success. But playing well isn't enough. The best team does not necessarily win the championship. Just ask the 2006 Mets and Tigers. The champion is the team that plays well enough at the right time and gets the breaks.
Example: The Red Sox were the best team in baseball last year by a lot of measures. Yet they were nearly beaten by the Indians. In the 7th game of the series, a ball hit just fair over 3rd base caromed off the wall into no-man's land in short left field. With speedy Kenny Lofton on second base, the Sox were helpless to stop him from coming home with the tying run. But he didn't come home, because the 3rd base coach inexplicably held him up. The Indians stranded him there, and the Sox went on to pad the lead and win the game.
How would that game have been different if Lofton had scored there? What a huge momentum change and emotional lift for the Indians! But the Sox didn't have to face it, not because they did something right, but because the Indians screwed up. Lucky.
Example: On their march to the post-season, the Indians had an incredible succession of breaks, culminating in a plague of insects descending on the Yankees in game 2 of the Divisional Series. Another break you may not be aware of: while Scott Baker was pitching his near-perfect game at the end of August, I was in Chicago for a friend's wedding. The White Sox-Indians game was on in the pizza joint where we had dinner. Trailing 5-2 in the bottom of the 8th, the Indians had runners at the corners with 2 outs. The batter hit a lazy two-hopper to short - inning over, say hello to Bobby Jenks in the 9th! Except that the second hop hit some sort of divot on the infield dirt and bounced about ten feet to the right. The SS, who was in the correct fielding position for a normal bounce, could do nothing to prevent the ball from rolling into left field. A run scored, the inning extended, and the Indians would rally to take the lead and win the game.
I give the Indians credit for making that extra out count and stringing a couple more good ABs together when they had the opportunity. They were a very good team last year, and should be again in 2008. But the White Sox deserved to be out of that inning with a 3-run lead to hand to their closer. The only reason the Indians had the opportunity to be so good that night: luck.
The Rockies, as well as they played last September, needed a dicey call by the home plate ump to make the playoffs. The White Sox got their own dicey plate-ump call in the 2005 ALCS. The 2006 Cardinals were perhaps the weakest team to ever win the World Series. How lucky were they that the Tigers' pitchers threw the ball all over the infield? That Granderson slipped and fell in center field? As for the magnificent 2006 Twins: when Nick Punto is hitting .290 and Dennys Reyes has a 0.89 ERA, things are probably falling your way.
Predictions about pennant races may be based on reputation and past performance of players, or more scientific methods like PECOTA or Pythagorean scoring. Those metrics are usually close, but in the cases where they're off, dumb luck is the biggest reason. Crazy things happen in the course of a baseball game that have nothing to do with the ability and performance of the players. There is no way to predict which teams will benefit, and which will be harmed.
I made some projections about numbers I expect the Twins players to put up. Over the course of a long season and career, one can make reasonably educated guesses about an expected statistical performance. But when it comes to predicting wins and losses, the numbers don't tell the whole story. It's not just how many runs you score, but when you score them. That's how Seattle and Arizona could be way over .500 despite allowing about as many runs as they put up.
So when I'm asked who I think will win in 2008, I feel like what I'm really being asked is, "Who do I think will be luckiest this year?"
(Shrug) Why not Tampa?
Sunday, March 30, 2008
2008 Twins Pre-Season Bullpen
Closer - Joe Nathan
Nathan has been, arguably, the best closer in baseball since he took up that role for the Twins in 2004. Over the past 4 seasons, he's averaged 40 saves and a 92% conversion rate, with an ERA under 2.00 and K/9 over 10.00. After having his best season in 2006 (12.51 K/9!), the numbers dipped in 2007, particularly the strikeouts (9.67 K/9). The first sign of decline, or just an off year? The Twins, having just signed Nathan through 2011, are banking on the latter. Through 11 spring innings, the K/9 was up to 10.64. Whatever the K/9, I'd rather have him than Joe Borowski or Todd Jones.
Best case: a repeat of 2006
Worst case: he gets hurt
SfC projection: 70 IP, 2.10 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 40 SV
Setup - Pat Neshek
When the bullpen imploded last May due to injuries and/or ineffectiveness, Neshek became Gardy's most trusted middle reliever. He was called into just about every sticky situation the Twins found themselves in, and was so effective that he nearly made the All-Star team. He declined steeply after July, probably due to overuse (he accumulated 74 IP despite being shut down with a couple weeks left in the season). This season, he's come back in better shape, and the hope is to use him more judiciously anyway. He could hardly have had a better spring (11 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 9 K), so his prospects for this season look excellent.
Best case: the first half of 2007 lasts all year
Worst case: he gets hurt
SfC projection: 75 IP, 2.00 ERA, 0.90 WHIP
RHP - Matt Guerrier
I credit Guerrier with keeping the Twins in the race as long as they were last year. Merely the long-relief guy in his first couple years on the team, he had to step into the Jesse Crain/Juan Rincon roll last year, and responded by having his best season. He gave the Twins 88 IP, 2.35 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and drastically improved his BB/9 and K/9. Most of the great numbers happened in the first half - the second half was closer to his career averages so far. With Crain returning from surgery, and Rincon hoping to recover his old form, the Twins might like to move Guerrier back to long relief. But until those guys prove their effectiveness, I wouldn't be surprised to see Guerrier used as the primary 7th inning guy next month.
Best case: 2007
Worst case: It's an off year
SfC projection: 85 IP, 3.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
LHP - Dennys Reyes
After putting up ERAs in the mid-4.00s and WHIPs in the 1.60 range for most of his career, Reyes came out of nowhere in 2006 to lead the Twins' bullpen with a 0.89 ERA. That number was shaped a great deal by how he was used, but he was undeniably effective, striking out about a batter per inning and issuing the fewest walks per IP of his career. He came crashing back to reality in 2007, though he was hampered by an injury in the early part of the season. This spring, I've mainly been concerned with his control - he's got to get ahead to be effective. In 10 spring IP, though he's given up 12 hits, he's only walked one batter, and so he's been able to escape his jams and put up a very encouraging 1.80 ERA. Considering he'll be used almost entirely against left-handed batters, his chances for success are pretty good.
Best case: 2006 Reyes
Worst case: Pre-Twins Reyes
SfC projection: 50 IP, 3.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
RHP - Juan Rincon
Rincon has been with the Twins throughout their successful run this decade. He peaked in 2004, when he appeared in 77 games and threw 82 IP, with a 2.63 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 106 K and only 32 BB. He had been steadily declining until last season, when he declined precipitously. He put up career worsts in IP, ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9 and, perhaps most alarming, HR. The 9 bombs he served up in 2007 equalled the combined total of 2004-2006. And yet, he was offered a contract and is back for one more season. He was embarassed by his performance last year, and will be a free agent after the season, so he's got every incentive to show what kind of pitcher he really is.
Best case: Back to the good old days
Worst case: The decline (gulp) continues
SfC projection: 75 IP, 3.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
RHP - Jesse Crain
Crain had been one of the Twins' most effective relievers, even generating some discussion of being a future closer, until he broke down last season with a serious shoulder injury. His labrum and rotator cuff have been repaired, but it's difficult for any pitcher to get back to form after damaging those areas. Though Crain is in as good a condition as anyone in his situation could possibly be, it's still very uncertain as to how he will perform this year. Like Liriano, they'll have to take things slowly, and hope for the best. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in lower pressure situations this year.
Best case: good as new
Worst case: never the same
SfC prediction: 50 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
RHP - Brian Bass
Bass found his way onto the roster this spring because the Twins wanted 12 pitchers, he pitched well last year in Rochester and had a great spring, and he's out of options and the Twins didn't want to lose him. He'll be in the Matt Guerrier role from recent years, long relief.
Best case: Guerrier from 2005-2006
Worst case: back to the Minors (and therefore off the team)
SfC projection: 70 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
The Twins' motto this year could be: "Get Back to 2006!" and it seems especially true of the bullpen. Nathan and Neshek are going to be as dominant an 8th & 9th inning door-slamming duo as any in baseball. If Rincon, Crain, and Reyes can find their way even halfway back to their 2006 numbers, the Twins will have easily the best bullpen in the AL Central, and one of the best in the Majors. With a young, unproven starting rotation, they'll need it to be that good.
Nathan has been, arguably, the best closer in baseball since he took up that role for the Twins in 2004. Over the past 4 seasons, he's averaged 40 saves and a 92% conversion rate, with an ERA under 2.00 and K/9 over 10.00. After having his best season in 2006 (12.51 K/9!), the numbers dipped in 2007, particularly the strikeouts (9.67 K/9). The first sign of decline, or just an off year? The Twins, having just signed Nathan through 2011, are banking on the latter. Through 11 spring innings, the K/9 was up to 10.64. Whatever the K/9, I'd rather have him than Joe Borowski or Todd Jones.
Best case: a repeat of 2006
Worst case: he gets hurt
SfC projection: 70 IP, 2.10 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 40 SV
Setup - Pat Neshek
When the bullpen imploded last May due to injuries and/or ineffectiveness, Neshek became Gardy's most trusted middle reliever. He was called into just about every sticky situation the Twins found themselves in, and was so effective that he nearly made the All-Star team. He declined steeply after July, probably due to overuse (he accumulated 74 IP despite being shut down with a couple weeks left in the season). This season, he's come back in better shape, and the hope is to use him more judiciously anyway. He could hardly have had a better spring (11 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 9 K), so his prospects for this season look excellent.
Best case: the first half of 2007 lasts all year
Worst case: he gets hurt
SfC projection: 75 IP, 2.00 ERA, 0.90 WHIP
RHP - Matt Guerrier
I credit Guerrier with keeping the Twins in the race as long as they were last year. Merely the long-relief guy in his first couple years on the team, he had to step into the Jesse Crain/Juan Rincon roll last year, and responded by having his best season. He gave the Twins 88 IP, 2.35 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and drastically improved his BB/9 and K/9. Most of the great numbers happened in the first half - the second half was closer to his career averages so far. With Crain returning from surgery, and Rincon hoping to recover his old form, the Twins might like to move Guerrier back to long relief. But until those guys prove their effectiveness, I wouldn't be surprised to see Guerrier used as the primary 7th inning guy next month.
Best case: 2007
Worst case: It's an off year
SfC projection: 85 IP, 3.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
LHP - Dennys Reyes
After putting up ERAs in the mid-4.00s and WHIPs in the 1.60 range for most of his career, Reyes came out of nowhere in 2006 to lead the Twins' bullpen with a 0.89 ERA. That number was shaped a great deal by how he was used, but he was undeniably effective, striking out about a batter per inning and issuing the fewest walks per IP of his career. He came crashing back to reality in 2007, though he was hampered by an injury in the early part of the season. This spring, I've mainly been concerned with his control - he's got to get ahead to be effective. In 10 spring IP, though he's given up 12 hits, he's only walked one batter, and so he's been able to escape his jams and put up a very encouraging 1.80 ERA. Considering he'll be used almost entirely against left-handed batters, his chances for success are pretty good.
Best case: 2006 Reyes
Worst case: Pre-Twins Reyes
SfC projection: 50 IP, 3.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
RHP - Juan Rincon
Rincon has been with the Twins throughout their successful run this decade. He peaked in 2004, when he appeared in 77 games and threw 82 IP, with a 2.63 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 106 K and only 32 BB. He had been steadily declining until last season, when he declined precipitously. He put up career worsts in IP, ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9 and, perhaps most alarming, HR. The 9 bombs he served up in 2007 equalled the combined total of 2004-2006. And yet, he was offered a contract and is back for one more season. He was embarassed by his performance last year, and will be a free agent after the season, so he's got every incentive to show what kind of pitcher he really is.
Best case: Back to the good old days
Worst case: The decline (gulp) continues
SfC projection: 75 IP, 3.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
RHP - Jesse Crain
Crain had been one of the Twins' most effective relievers, even generating some discussion of being a future closer, until he broke down last season with a serious shoulder injury. His labrum and rotator cuff have been repaired, but it's difficult for any pitcher to get back to form after damaging those areas. Though Crain is in as good a condition as anyone in his situation could possibly be, it's still very uncertain as to how he will perform this year. Like Liriano, they'll have to take things slowly, and hope for the best. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in lower pressure situations this year.
Best case: good as new
Worst case: never the same
SfC prediction: 50 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
RHP - Brian Bass
Bass found his way onto the roster this spring because the Twins wanted 12 pitchers, he pitched well last year in Rochester and had a great spring, and he's out of options and the Twins didn't want to lose him. He'll be in the Matt Guerrier role from recent years, long relief.
Best case: Guerrier from 2005-2006
Worst case: back to the Minors (and therefore off the team)
SfC projection: 70 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
The Twins' motto this year could be: "Get Back to 2006!" and it seems especially true of the bullpen. Nathan and Neshek are going to be as dominant an 8th & 9th inning door-slamming duo as any in baseball. If Rincon, Crain, and Reyes can find their way even halfway back to their 2006 numbers, the Twins will have easily the best bullpen in the AL Central, and one of the best in the Majors. With a young, unproven starting rotation, they'll need it to be that good.
Saturday, March 29, 2008
2008 Twins Pre-Season Bench
Catcher - Mike Redmond
Redmond has been the best backup backstop in baseball since he joined the Twins in 2005. He's hit .312/.355/.381 during that span, and has thrown out 41% of base stealers while helping to lead solid pitching staffs. He doesn't have much pop off the bench, but he uses the whole field. He'll be 37 in May, so it's uncertain how many good games he has left, but a healthy Joe Mauer should keep his playing time down to around 45 games.
Best case: a repeat of 2006
Worst case: a repeat of 2003
SfC prediction: .290/.340/.360, 1 HR, 20 RBI, 15 R
Outfield - Craig Monroe
Despite his 28 HR in 2006, Monroe has been going the wrong way as a hitter for a few seasons. His walk totals have been waning as his strikeout totals climb, and his OBP shows the corresponding decline. He's been particularly struggling vs. right-handed pitchers, against whom he suffers most of his strikeouts and has a far lower SLG%. After a poor start to 2007, he left the Tigers, and was even worse with the Cubs. I don't think he'll be that bad in 2008, and his solid spring reinforces that hope. He has an opportunity to be particularly effective if he's used almost exclusively against lefties. We'll see if that's the way Gardy plays it.
Best case: Monroe in 2006
Worst case: Monroe in 2007
SfC projection: .260/.310/.490, 12 HR, 40 RBI, 25 R
Infield - Nick Punto
Punto won a starting job in the infield after putting up a .290/.352/.373 line in 2006. He gave it right back by going .210/.291/.271 in 2007, and hitting even worse this spring. He's a much better fielder than either Lamb or Harris, and he's always been a high-percentage base stealer, so he'll have a reasonably high value to the team as a late-inning defensive replacement or pinch runner. The key will be to minimize his ABs, although I suspect he'll revert back to something close to his career averages this year.
Best case: Punto of 2006
Worst case: Punto of 2007
SfC projection: .240/.310/.315, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 30 R
Infield - Matt Tolbert
Tolbert was hitting about .350 for Rochester in the first half of last season before cooling off to finish the year at .293. Like Punto, he's a solid glove at 2B, SS and 3B and a high percentage base-stealer. Unlike Punto, he has enough hitting talent to put up a .750 OPS. He'll allow the Twins to take both Harris and Lamb out of games late, and he'll get the occasional start. He's probably going to be Punto's replacement long-term.
Best case: Merits lots of playing time
Worst case: Blows it and gets sent back to Rochester
SfC projection: .275/.340/.380, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 20 R
Hopefully, at some point, the Twins will feel comfortable enough with their young rotation to add a 5th bench player who's more of a hitting threat. Until then, from an offensive standpoint, the Twins will be relying heavily on their starters.
Redmond has been the best backup backstop in baseball since he joined the Twins in 2005. He's hit .312/.355/.381 during that span, and has thrown out 41% of base stealers while helping to lead solid pitching staffs. He doesn't have much pop off the bench, but he uses the whole field. He'll be 37 in May, so it's uncertain how many good games he has left, but a healthy Joe Mauer should keep his playing time down to around 45 games.
Best case: a repeat of 2006
Worst case: a repeat of 2003
SfC prediction: .290/.340/.360, 1 HR, 20 RBI, 15 R
Outfield - Craig Monroe
Despite his 28 HR in 2006, Monroe has been going the wrong way as a hitter for a few seasons. His walk totals have been waning as his strikeout totals climb, and his OBP shows the corresponding decline. He's been particularly struggling vs. right-handed pitchers, against whom he suffers most of his strikeouts and has a far lower SLG%. After a poor start to 2007, he left the Tigers, and was even worse with the Cubs. I don't think he'll be that bad in 2008, and his solid spring reinforces that hope. He has an opportunity to be particularly effective if he's used almost exclusively against lefties. We'll see if that's the way Gardy plays it.
Best case: Monroe in 2006
Worst case: Monroe in 2007
SfC projection: .260/.310/.490, 12 HR, 40 RBI, 25 R
Infield - Nick Punto
Punto won a starting job in the infield after putting up a .290/.352/.373 line in 2006. He gave it right back by going .210/.291/.271 in 2007, and hitting even worse this spring. He's a much better fielder than either Lamb or Harris, and he's always been a high-percentage base stealer, so he'll have a reasonably high value to the team as a late-inning defensive replacement or pinch runner. The key will be to minimize his ABs, although I suspect he'll revert back to something close to his career averages this year.
Best case: Punto of 2006
Worst case: Punto of 2007
SfC projection: .240/.310/.315, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 30 R
Infield - Matt Tolbert
Tolbert was hitting about .350 for Rochester in the first half of last season before cooling off to finish the year at .293. Like Punto, he's a solid glove at 2B, SS and 3B and a high percentage base-stealer. Unlike Punto, he has enough hitting talent to put up a .750 OPS. He'll allow the Twins to take both Harris and Lamb out of games late, and he'll get the occasional start. He's probably going to be Punto's replacement long-term.
Best case: Merits lots of playing time
Worst case: Blows it and gets sent back to Rochester
SfC projection: .275/.340/.380, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 20 R
Hopefully, at some point, the Twins will feel comfortable enough with their young rotation to add a 5th bench player who's more of a hitting threat. Until then, from an offensive standpoint, the Twins will be relying heavily on their starters.
Friday, March 28, 2008
2008 Twins Pre-Season Rotation
1. Livan Hernandez
Hernandez was signed after the Santana trade to give the coaching staff some confidence that the bullpen wouldn't have to throw 4+ innings a night in relief of an unproven young rotation. Innings are the one constant in his career - he's failed to reach 200 innings just once since he became a full-time starter in 1998, and that was when he threw 199.2 innings in 1999. This might be the year he misses the benchmark for the second time. I find it difficult to imagine him pitching consistently well enough to merit staying in the game 6 innings every night for 33 starts. His only effective starts this spring have been against lineups thick with bench players and minor-leaguers, and now he takes his 4.25 career ERA into the AL.
Best case: He gets off to a good start and the Twins trade him in June while his value is high
Worst case: He actually makes 33 starts for the Twins
SfC projection: 8-17, 185 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 70 BB, 90 K
2. Boof Bonser
Bonser disappointed in 2007 after posting promising numbers in 2006 and the minors. Just about every start, it seemed like he'd be really good for 4-5 innings, then hit the wall. The coaches impressed upon him to improve his conditioning, and he showed up to camp 20+ pounds lighter. His results in spring training have been encouraging. He still hasn't made 50 starts or thrown 300 innings in the majors, so it's not unreasonable to assume some growing pains for a young pitcher. If his new stamina translates into more strikeouts, and he maintains the solid control he's shown since the low levels of the minors, this could be the year he finally puts it all together.
Best case: Boof from late 2006
Worst case: Boof from 2007
SfC projection: 12-10, 190 IP, 4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 50 BB, 170 K
3. Nick Blackburn
Blackburn had been progressing through the Twins' system at a modest rate, generally needing to repeat each level for at least a portion of a season before making the necessary adjustments and moving on. But something clicked in 2007, as he baffled the IL hitters with a long scoreless innings streak and earned a September call-up with Twins. He continued to dominate in the AFL, and put together a sparkling spring training to earn his spot on the roster. He's got just 11.2 major league innings so far, and the last 2 were pretty awful - he was blown to bits by the Tigers and Red Sox in the last week of the season. I suspect he'll have a few more growing pains in the early goings this year, just as Baker, Bonser and Slowey did in their initial stints with the Twins.
Best case: he holds his own and keeps his spot all season
Worst case: he struggles and is sent down to make room for Liriano
SfC projection: 4-5, 80 IP, 4.75 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 20 BB, 40 K
4. Kevin Slowey
Slowey is my pick to click in 2008. He was the best pitcher in AAA last season, putting up a 1.89 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 133.2 innings. He struggled when the Twins called him up in June, but was very effective when he was brought back in September. After a rocky first 2 outings this spring, he's been solid the rest of the way. Particularly intriguing is the increase in strikeouts, up to more than one per inning in Grapefruit League play. His control is impeccable, he pitches to the corners, changes speeds - already a fairly mature pitcher. When this season is over, he'll be the one who had the most impressive campaign.
Best case: Greg Maddux
Worst case: Brad Radke
SfC projection: 16-10, 210 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 30 BB, 190 K
5. Scott Baker
Baker soared through the system, making his big-league debut in 2005, just two years after he was drafted. He ping-ponged between the Twins and Red Wings for the next two years, dominating AAA but never quite putting it together for Gardy. That seemed to change as the summer wore on last year, culminating in his near perfect game at the end of August. Like Bonser, he doesn't yet have 50 starts or 300 IP at the Major-league level, and once he puts this spring's physical setbacks behind him, I expect him to nearly match Slowey as the steady hand in the rotation.
Best case: Baker from the 2nd half of 2007
Worst case: Baker from the 1st half of 2006
SfC projection: 17-10, 220 IP, 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 50 BB, 180 K
I'm expecting these 5 guys to give the Twins 57 wins and 885 IP. But with Liriano, Perkins, Humber and Mulvey getting their work in at AAA, I don't expect the rotation to look very much like this in September.
Hernandez was signed after the Santana trade to give the coaching staff some confidence that the bullpen wouldn't have to throw 4+ innings a night in relief of an unproven young rotation. Innings are the one constant in his career - he's failed to reach 200 innings just once since he became a full-time starter in 1998, and that was when he threw 199.2 innings in 1999. This might be the year he misses the benchmark for the second time. I find it difficult to imagine him pitching consistently well enough to merit staying in the game 6 innings every night for 33 starts. His only effective starts this spring have been against lineups thick with bench players and minor-leaguers, and now he takes his 4.25 career ERA into the AL.
Best case: He gets off to a good start and the Twins trade him in June while his value is high
Worst case: He actually makes 33 starts for the Twins
SfC projection: 8-17, 185 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 70 BB, 90 K
2. Boof Bonser
Bonser disappointed in 2007 after posting promising numbers in 2006 and the minors. Just about every start, it seemed like he'd be really good for 4-5 innings, then hit the wall. The coaches impressed upon him to improve his conditioning, and he showed up to camp 20+ pounds lighter. His results in spring training have been encouraging. He still hasn't made 50 starts or thrown 300 innings in the majors, so it's not unreasonable to assume some growing pains for a young pitcher. If his new stamina translates into more strikeouts, and he maintains the solid control he's shown since the low levels of the minors, this could be the year he finally puts it all together.
Best case: Boof from late 2006
Worst case: Boof from 2007
SfC projection: 12-10, 190 IP, 4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 50 BB, 170 K
3. Nick Blackburn
Blackburn had been progressing through the Twins' system at a modest rate, generally needing to repeat each level for at least a portion of a season before making the necessary adjustments and moving on. But something clicked in 2007, as he baffled the IL hitters with a long scoreless innings streak and earned a September call-up with Twins. He continued to dominate in the AFL, and put together a sparkling spring training to earn his spot on the roster. He's got just 11.2 major league innings so far, and the last 2 were pretty awful - he was blown to bits by the Tigers and Red Sox in the last week of the season. I suspect he'll have a few more growing pains in the early goings this year, just as Baker, Bonser and Slowey did in their initial stints with the Twins.
Best case: he holds his own and keeps his spot all season
Worst case: he struggles and is sent down to make room for Liriano
SfC projection: 4-5, 80 IP, 4.75 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 20 BB, 40 K
4. Kevin Slowey
Slowey is my pick to click in 2008. He was the best pitcher in AAA last season, putting up a 1.89 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 133.2 innings. He struggled when the Twins called him up in June, but was very effective when he was brought back in September. After a rocky first 2 outings this spring, he's been solid the rest of the way. Particularly intriguing is the increase in strikeouts, up to more than one per inning in Grapefruit League play. His control is impeccable, he pitches to the corners, changes speeds - already a fairly mature pitcher. When this season is over, he'll be the one who had the most impressive campaign.
Best case: Greg Maddux
Worst case: Brad Radke
SfC projection: 16-10, 210 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 30 BB, 190 K
5. Scott Baker
Baker soared through the system, making his big-league debut in 2005, just two years after he was drafted. He ping-ponged between the Twins and Red Wings for the next two years, dominating AAA but never quite putting it together for Gardy. That seemed to change as the summer wore on last year, culminating in his near perfect game at the end of August. Like Bonser, he doesn't yet have 50 starts or 300 IP at the Major-league level, and once he puts this spring's physical setbacks behind him, I expect him to nearly match Slowey as the steady hand in the rotation.
Best case: Baker from the 2nd half of 2007
Worst case: Baker from the 1st half of 2006
SfC projection: 17-10, 220 IP, 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 50 BB, 180 K
I'm expecting these 5 guys to give the Twins 57 wins and 885 IP. But with Liriano, Perkins, Humber and Mulvey getting their work in at AAA, I don't expect the rotation to look very much like this in September.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
2008 Twins Pre-Season Lineup
The last cuts have been made, the roster is set, and the regular season is about to begin. Here is the team the Twins decided to bring north:
1. CF - Carlos Gomez
It's going to be a bit of a bumpy ride with Gomez in 2008. In 1,291 minor-league ABs, he's hit .278/.339/.399 with 18 HRs and 141 SBs. But he's also struck out 250 times while working just 82 walks, and that's a big concern for the Twins this year. Based on the swings he's been taking this spring, I think it's going to be a struggle for him to crack .300 OBP, which would not be a good thing for a leadoff guy. Add to that his wildness throwing from the OF, and the only tool the Twins can really count on next month is his other-worldly speed. He's going to need to make more contact, take more pitches, and consistently hit the cutoff man if he wants to stick in the Majors.
Best case: Curtis Granderson
Worst case: Corey Patterson
SfC Projection: .260/.290/.410, 10 HRs, 50 RBIs, 85 R, 60 SBs, 130 Ks. But I think he'll be sent down by the end of May.
2. C - Joe Mauer
Mauer didn't have his legs under him last year. A stress reaction in March, a hammy in May, a quad in August. His numbers dipped substantially from his batting title in 2006. Still, .293/.382/.426 isn't too bad for an off year. I remember a number of ABs last year where he drove fly balls to the warning track in left - they only have to go 5% further to become homers. If his legs are feeling 5% better, I think we're finally going to see the power we always thought Mauer could display.
Best case: He's back challenging for the batting title and the AL MVP.
Worst case: He gets hurt again
SfC projection: .335/.425/.500, 18 HR, 80 RBI, 100 R
3. RF - Michael Cuddyer
Cuddyer was also derailed somewhat by injury last season, hurting his back when he lost his footing on the base paths in July. He was remarkably consistent in terms of average, OBP and SLG% before and after the All-Star break. He's had 2,097 MLB ABs, which many would say is enough to establish his .270/.346/.450 career line as about as good as he'll do this year. I think that line is weighted pretty strongly by his first 993 ABs, spread over 5 seasons when he was adjusting to the majors. His line over that stretch was .260/.332/.428, with a HR every 31 ABs. In the 1,104 ABs he had in '06-'07, his line was .280/.362/.469, with a HR every 27 ABs. I'm expecting something more along those lines for 2008.
Best case: His numbers fall in line with his career minor league averages (.290/.379/.485)
Worst case: His MLB career average really is his ceiling
SfC projection: .285/.370/.475, 22 HR, 90 RBI, 95 R
4. 1B - Justin Morneau
This winter, Morneau signed the longest, richest contract in Twins history. Not bad for a guy who hasn't put together a complete season in the big leagues yet. He's got just about the same number of career ABs as Cuddyer (2058), and it wasn't too long after the 1000 AB threshold that he began his tear in 2006. His power numbers tailed off drastically after July in each of the last two years. If he can sustain the numbers he's put up in the first four months through August and September, he should wind up with 40+ HRs. He's determined to make that happen this year. I hope he can stay out of his own way, mentally speaking.
Best case: Harmon Killebrew in 1969
Worst case: Justin Morneau in 2007
SfC projection: .295/.365/.565, 42 HR, 120 RBI, 90 R
5. LF - Delmon Young
At 22, Young is, well, young for the Major Leagues, yet he'll reach that 1000 AB threshold by June. Last year he swung at everything, especially the first pitch. He's been much more patient this spring, even though he's still not drawing many walks. As he gets more comfortable with deep counts, he'll find himself with more opportunities to focus his considerable hitting abilities on pitches in the zone. I've been impressed by his ability to drive in runs this spring, whether by hits or fly balls. 2008 should be another step on his path to stardom. His arm in left field will prevent a lot of extra bases on the defensive side of things.
Best case: He starts putting up his minor league numbers (.317/.363/.517)
Worst case: He repeats last year (.288/.316/.408)
SfC projection: .310/.345/.475, 18 HR, 100 RBI, 85 R
6. DH - Jason Kubel
Ever since Kubel lost 2005 to an ACL tear in the AFL, we've been waiting for him to recover his spectacular minor league form (.320/.385/.499). Late last season, it appeared that finally happened: Kubel hit .303/.379/.511 in 170 ABs after the All-Star break. If that continues into this season, the Twins' DH woes could finally be over. Kubel won't turn 26 until May, and he's only had about 700 MLB ABs, so there's reason (once again) to be optimistic.
Best case: His minor league numbers
Worst case: Another 2007
SfC projection: .310/.380/.500, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 75 R
7. 3B - Mike Lamb
Lamb will get a chance to be an every-day player for the first time since his rookie year of 2000, when he got about 500 ABs with the Rangers. Since then, he's been a platoon guy, never reaching even 400 ABs. With the exception of 2005, he's always done a good job offensively. Defensively, he's average at best. He's having a terrific spring, which will hopefully carry over into April. I think we can expect to see Punto or Tolbert come in for defensive purposes in games the Twins are leading after 6-7 innings.
Best case: Corey Koskie
Worst case: Tony Batista
SfC projection: .285/.345/.450, 15 HR, 80 RBI, 70 R
8. 2B - Brendan Harris
Harris finally had a full season in the Majors last year after a number of limited stints from 2004-2006. He was able to come reasonably close (.286/.343/.434) to his career minor league numbers (.294/.365.458). He had a horribly slow start to the spring, both offensively and defensively, but he's been warming on both sides of the ball as late. Like Young, Harris will hit the 1000 AB threshold some time this summer, so there's reason to hope that he'll find his comfort zone and rise to his minor league averages. Though his defense has improved recently, I think it's likely that Punto or Tolbert will replace him in the late innings of every game the Twins are leading.
Best case: His minor league numbers
Worst case: His spring training numbers
SfC projection: .290/.350/.450, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 65 R
9. SS - Adam Everett
Everett was signed to hold down the shortstop position for one season. He's not much of a hitter, barely cracking a .700 OPS in his best offensive season in the Majors. His 2145 career ABs put him in the same league as Morneau and Cuddyer, but unlike those two, Everett hasn't shown any improvement in the last couple of years. At his age, I think we know what we're getting at the plate. However, he's a peerless defender, at the top of the league in range and fielding percentage over the course of his career. Just what a young pitching staff needs.
Best case: Punto in 2006
Worst case: Punto in 2007
SfC projection: .245/.295/.350, 2 HR, 45 RBI, 50 R
I'm projecting this lineup to produce 715 runs, already about equal to the anemic team total from 2007. If the bench guys kick in another 75, that will comfortably lift the team into the major league average. Hopefully that will be enough for a staff of promising young pitchers.
1. CF - Carlos Gomez
It's going to be a bit of a bumpy ride with Gomez in 2008. In 1,291 minor-league ABs, he's hit .278/.339/.399 with 18 HRs and 141 SBs. But he's also struck out 250 times while working just 82 walks, and that's a big concern for the Twins this year. Based on the swings he's been taking this spring, I think it's going to be a struggle for him to crack .300 OBP, which would not be a good thing for a leadoff guy. Add to that his wildness throwing from the OF, and the only tool the Twins can really count on next month is his other-worldly speed. He's going to need to make more contact, take more pitches, and consistently hit the cutoff man if he wants to stick in the Majors.
Best case: Curtis Granderson
Worst case: Corey Patterson
SfC Projection: .260/.290/.410, 10 HRs, 50 RBIs, 85 R, 60 SBs, 130 Ks. But I think he'll be sent down by the end of May.
2. C - Joe Mauer
Mauer didn't have his legs under him last year. A stress reaction in March, a hammy in May, a quad in August. His numbers dipped substantially from his batting title in 2006. Still, .293/.382/.426 isn't too bad for an off year. I remember a number of ABs last year where he drove fly balls to the warning track in left - they only have to go 5% further to become homers. If his legs are feeling 5% better, I think we're finally going to see the power we always thought Mauer could display.
Best case: He's back challenging for the batting title and the AL MVP.
Worst case: He gets hurt again
SfC projection: .335/.425/.500, 18 HR, 80 RBI, 100 R
3. RF - Michael Cuddyer
Cuddyer was also derailed somewhat by injury last season, hurting his back when he lost his footing on the base paths in July. He was remarkably consistent in terms of average, OBP and SLG% before and after the All-Star break. He's had 2,097 MLB ABs, which many would say is enough to establish his .270/.346/.450 career line as about as good as he'll do this year. I think that line is weighted pretty strongly by his first 993 ABs, spread over 5 seasons when he was adjusting to the majors. His line over that stretch was .260/.332/.428, with a HR every 31 ABs. In the 1,104 ABs he had in '06-'07, his line was .280/.362/.469, with a HR every 27 ABs. I'm expecting something more along those lines for 2008.
Best case: His numbers fall in line with his career minor league averages (.290/.379/.485)
Worst case: His MLB career average really is his ceiling
SfC projection: .285/.370/.475, 22 HR, 90 RBI, 95 R
4. 1B - Justin Morneau
This winter, Morneau signed the longest, richest contract in Twins history. Not bad for a guy who hasn't put together a complete season in the big leagues yet. He's got just about the same number of career ABs as Cuddyer (2058), and it wasn't too long after the 1000 AB threshold that he began his tear in 2006. His power numbers tailed off drastically after July in each of the last two years. If he can sustain the numbers he's put up in the first four months through August and September, he should wind up with 40+ HRs. He's determined to make that happen this year. I hope he can stay out of his own way, mentally speaking.
Best case: Harmon Killebrew in 1969
Worst case: Justin Morneau in 2007
SfC projection: .295/.365/.565, 42 HR, 120 RBI, 90 R
5. LF - Delmon Young
At 22, Young is, well, young for the Major Leagues, yet he'll reach that 1000 AB threshold by June. Last year he swung at everything, especially the first pitch. He's been much more patient this spring, even though he's still not drawing many walks. As he gets more comfortable with deep counts, he'll find himself with more opportunities to focus his considerable hitting abilities on pitches in the zone. I've been impressed by his ability to drive in runs this spring, whether by hits or fly balls. 2008 should be another step on his path to stardom. His arm in left field will prevent a lot of extra bases on the defensive side of things.
Best case: He starts putting up his minor league numbers (.317/.363/.517)
Worst case: He repeats last year (.288/.316/.408)
SfC projection: .310/.345/.475, 18 HR, 100 RBI, 85 R
6. DH - Jason Kubel
Ever since Kubel lost 2005 to an ACL tear in the AFL, we've been waiting for him to recover his spectacular minor league form (.320/.385/.499). Late last season, it appeared that finally happened: Kubel hit .303/.379/.511 in 170 ABs after the All-Star break. If that continues into this season, the Twins' DH woes could finally be over. Kubel won't turn 26 until May, and he's only had about 700 MLB ABs, so there's reason (once again) to be optimistic.
Best case: His minor league numbers
Worst case: Another 2007
SfC projection: .310/.380/.500, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 75 R
7. 3B - Mike Lamb
Lamb will get a chance to be an every-day player for the first time since his rookie year of 2000, when he got about 500 ABs with the Rangers. Since then, he's been a platoon guy, never reaching even 400 ABs. With the exception of 2005, he's always done a good job offensively. Defensively, he's average at best. He's having a terrific spring, which will hopefully carry over into April. I think we can expect to see Punto or Tolbert come in for defensive purposes in games the Twins are leading after 6-7 innings.
Best case: Corey Koskie
Worst case: Tony Batista
SfC projection: .285/.345/.450, 15 HR, 80 RBI, 70 R
8. 2B - Brendan Harris
Harris finally had a full season in the Majors last year after a number of limited stints from 2004-2006. He was able to come reasonably close (.286/.343/.434) to his career minor league numbers (.294/.365.458). He had a horribly slow start to the spring, both offensively and defensively, but he's been warming on both sides of the ball as late. Like Young, Harris will hit the 1000 AB threshold some time this summer, so there's reason to hope that he'll find his comfort zone and rise to his minor league averages. Though his defense has improved recently, I think it's likely that Punto or Tolbert will replace him in the late innings of every game the Twins are leading.
Best case: His minor league numbers
Worst case: His spring training numbers
SfC projection: .290/.350/.450, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 65 R
9. SS - Adam Everett
Everett was signed to hold down the shortstop position for one season. He's not much of a hitter, barely cracking a .700 OPS in his best offensive season in the Majors. His 2145 career ABs put him in the same league as Morneau and Cuddyer, but unlike those two, Everett hasn't shown any improvement in the last couple of years. At his age, I think we know what we're getting at the plate. However, he's a peerless defender, at the top of the league in range and fielding percentage over the course of his career. Just what a young pitching staff needs.
Best case: Punto in 2006
Worst case: Punto in 2007
SfC projection: .245/.295/.350, 2 HR, 45 RBI, 50 R
I'm projecting this lineup to produce 715 runs, already about equal to the anemic team total from 2007. If the bench guys kick in another 75, that will comfortably lift the team into the major league average. Hopefully that will be enough for a staff of promising young pitchers.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
What Might Have Been
I checked the box score from work today, and saw that today's game was a quickie (2:09 or so), so I decided to listen to it when I got home from work. What a pleasure to listen to baseball in the backyard on a spring evening while playing fetch with the doggie!
Livan Hernandez had his second straight solid outing: 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K. However, like last time, he was facing a lineup of mostly bench players. The three regulars in the Rays lineup (Iwamura, Bartlett and Gomes) combined to go 3-8 with a walk, double, triple and RBI. I remain unconvinced that Livan will be effective on opening day. He did thrill the crowd with a dribbler up the first base line that he kicked into Morneau's glove for the out. Maybe soccer is his sport.
Carlos Gomez flailed at strike 3 in the first after 3 straight bunt attempts. With a runner on second in the 2nd, he flailed so wildly at the first pitch that he fell down. Rays pitcher James Shields apparently didn't appreciate the largeness of the swing, and hit Gomez with a pitch. In the top of the third, he misplayed Iwamura's drive to center, twisting back and forth until he fell down, and the ball sailed over his head for a triple. Dan Gladden: "That's what you're going to get with this kid." He doubled over 3rd base in the fourth, and easily scored on Joe Mauer's bloop single to left. In the top of the 5th, he came up lame while making a running catch in left-center. They say it's just a cramp and he's day-to-day. Gomez says he wants to play tomorrow. Gardy would be absolutely nuts to let him.
(This brings up another reason the Twins shouldn't have had him start the season in the Majors: if he gets hurt and goes on the DL, his service time clock will be ticking away. If he gets hurt in the minors, no worries. Can we get a do-over? Please?)
Hearing Bartlett go 3-4 with a SB got me thinking. It's no use fixating on what might have been, so I'll just mention this one time, then take Garth Elgar's advice (Live in the now, man!). The Twins had too many young players, too many guys who had bad years last year, to be comfortable sticking with the hand they had at the end of last season. But what if they'd signed most of the same free agents, but hadn't traded Garza or Santana, believing that 2 first-rounders plus one more season of the best pitcher in baseball drawing crowds (and a chance at the title) were worth the same as the Mets' package. As we've seen this spring play out, the likely Twins opening day roster would have been:
CF - Span
SS - Bartlett
C - Mauer
1B - Morneau
RF - Cuddyer
LF - Kubel
3B - Lamb
DH - Ruiz/Monroe
2B - Punto/Tolbert
C - Redman
Bench - Jon Knott
I would have taken a flyer on a free agent 2B like Marcus Giles - he plays great defense, he can't hit any worse than Punto, and when he's on, he's got decent pop. But it's the pitching staff that really makes me wistful:
1P - Santana
2P - Baker
3P - Garza
4P - Bonser
5P - Slowey
Bullpen - exactly the same as the actual 2008 bullpen.
Liriano starts the year in the minors, and when he's got his feel back, he can come up. At that time, the Twins could trade Bonser and maybe one other prospect for a proper second baseman. If anyone falters, bring up Blackburn. Should they still give Nathan the extension? Why not? They could use the money they spent on Livan to give him the raise for this year, and with Santana still likely off the books for 2009, they could afford him just as easily as they can in the real world.
I think that roster is better than what the Twins will actually take north. It took a little faith to feel good about the possibilities of that group, but not an unrealistic amount. You just have to believe that the guys are capable of performing closer to their 2006 level than 2007, and that the young pitchers are ready come into their own. With Santana anchoring the rotation, and Neshek and Nathan slamming the door in the 8th and 9th innings, I think the what-if Twins team would have been capable of 90 wins. In a tough division, that might be enough - the Tigers and Indians are not without their weaknesses.
I'm not going to obsess over it, but I suspect that if we were to compile the numbers of that group of players at the end of the season, we'd find a team that could have produced better results than the team Bill Smith assembled.
Oh, well - easy come, easy go.
Livan Hernandez had his second straight solid outing: 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K. However, like last time, he was facing a lineup of mostly bench players. The three regulars in the Rays lineup (Iwamura, Bartlett and Gomes) combined to go 3-8 with a walk, double, triple and RBI. I remain unconvinced that Livan will be effective on opening day. He did thrill the crowd with a dribbler up the first base line that he kicked into Morneau's glove for the out. Maybe soccer is his sport.
Carlos Gomez flailed at strike 3 in the first after 3 straight bunt attempts. With a runner on second in the 2nd, he flailed so wildly at the first pitch that he fell down. Rays pitcher James Shields apparently didn't appreciate the largeness of the swing, and hit Gomez with a pitch. In the top of the third, he misplayed Iwamura's drive to center, twisting back and forth until he fell down, and the ball sailed over his head for a triple. Dan Gladden: "That's what you're going to get with this kid." He doubled over 3rd base in the fourth, and easily scored on Joe Mauer's bloop single to left. In the top of the 5th, he came up lame while making a running catch in left-center. They say it's just a cramp and he's day-to-day. Gomez says he wants to play tomorrow. Gardy would be absolutely nuts to let him.
(This brings up another reason the Twins shouldn't have had him start the season in the Majors: if he gets hurt and goes on the DL, his service time clock will be ticking away. If he gets hurt in the minors, no worries. Can we get a do-over? Please?)
Hearing Bartlett go 3-4 with a SB got me thinking. It's no use fixating on what might have been, so I'll just mention this one time, then take Garth Elgar's advice (Live in the now, man!). The Twins had too many young players, too many guys who had bad years last year, to be comfortable sticking with the hand they had at the end of last season. But what if they'd signed most of the same free agents, but hadn't traded Garza or Santana, believing that 2 first-rounders plus one more season of the best pitcher in baseball drawing crowds (and a chance at the title) were worth the same as the Mets' package. As we've seen this spring play out, the likely Twins opening day roster would have been:
CF - Span
SS - Bartlett
C - Mauer
1B - Morneau
RF - Cuddyer
LF - Kubel
3B - Lamb
DH - Ruiz/Monroe
2B - Punto/Tolbert
C - Redman
Bench - Jon Knott
I would have taken a flyer on a free agent 2B like Marcus Giles - he plays great defense, he can't hit any worse than Punto, and when he's on, he's got decent pop. But it's the pitching staff that really makes me wistful:
1P - Santana
2P - Baker
3P - Garza
4P - Bonser
5P - Slowey
Bullpen - exactly the same as the actual 2008 bullpen.
Liriano starts the year in the minors, and when he's got his feel back, he can come up. At that time, the Twins could trade Bonser and maybe one other prospect for a proper second baseman. If anyone falters, bring up Blackburn. Should they still give Nathan the extension? Why not? They could use the money they spent on Livan to give him the raise for this year, and with Santana still likely off the books for 2009, they could afford him just as easily as they can in the real world.
I think that roster is better than what the Twins will actually take north. It took a little faith to feel good about the possibilities of that group, but not an unrealistic amount. You just have to believe that the guys are capable of performing closer to their 2006 level than 2007, and that the young pitchers are ready come into their own. With Santana anchoring the rotation, and Neshek and Nathan slamming the door in the 8th and 9th innings, I think the what-if Twins team would have been capable of 90 wins. In a tough division, that might be enough - the Tigers and Indians are not without their weaknesses.
I'm not going to obsess over it, but I suspect that if we were to compile the numbers of that group of players at the end of the season, we'd find a team that could have produced better results than the team Bill Smith assembled.
Oh, well - easy come, easy go.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Really Not That Bad
I was watching today's game on MLB.TV, an interesting hybrid cast between Dick & Bert and the Pirates' commentators. They interviewed Mientkiewicz in the dugout, and it was fun to hear him say that he sometimes ribs Pierzynski: "You're good, but you're not worth Nathan, Bonser and Liriano." So true.
Kevin Slowey was really good today. Never mind the box score line (5 IP, 4 ER, 6H). He retired the first 11 batters before Jason Bay served a 2-strike single into center. The next batter, LaRoche, hit a line drive to CF that was utterly misplayed by Monroe - he took a step forward, froze, then recovered enough for the ball to just get over his glove for an RBI double. I've seen Gomez miss that play this spring, but I'd like to think he would have caught it. The next batter grounded a single to right, and Cuddyer came up throwing, so I figured the inning was over. But the throw was about 15 feet up the third baseline, so the run scored, and the batter advanced to second. A normal Cuddyer throw would have easily had LaRoche at the plate. The next batter lined a single to right, scoring the man from second.
In the 5th, our old friend Luis Rivas led off with a blooper to center that just dropped in between Punto, Harris and Monroe. Punto tipped the ball just after it bounced, knocking it away from Monroe and allowing Rivas to reach second. Pitcher Ian Snell was next up, and he bunted hard back to Slowey, who whirled and threw to third, but Rivas was already there. He really should thrown it to first. With runners at the corners and nobody out, Slowey struck out McClouth looking with a terrific fastball tailing over the inside corner (a la Greg Maddux). Then the Pirates put the squeeze on, and the Twins had to take the out at first while Rivas scored.
Slowey has had pretty shaky defense behind him for three starts in a row and it finally caught up to him. Without the Twins giving the Pirates extra outs and bases, Slowey could have very easily gotten through his work today with no runs allowed. It certainly should have been fewer than 4. Basically, I'm not concerned, and I think he's going to be dynamite in the rotation this year.
Most of the Twins hitters were smacking it around pretty well today. The exception, alas, was Nick Punto, 0-4 with a walk and 3 strikeouts, 2 of them looking. I heard that Morneau had stayed behind today to get extra ABs with the minor leaguers - maybe Punto should do that too.
Kevin Slowey was really good today. Never mind the box score line (5 IP, 4 ER, 6H). He retired the first 11 batters before Jason Bay served a 2-strike single into center. The next batter, LaRoche, hit a line drive to CF that was utterly misplayed by Monroe - he took a step forward, froze, then recovered enough for the ball to just get over his glove for an RBI double. I've seen Gomez miss that play this spring, but I'd like to think he would have caught it. The next batter grounded a single to right, and Cuddyer came up throwing, so I figured the inning was over. But the throw was about 15 feet up the third baseline, so the run scored, and the batter advanced to second. A normal Cuddyer throw would have easily had LaRoche at the plate. The next batter lined a single to right, scoring the man from second.
In the 5th, our old friend Luis Rivas led off with a blooper to center that just dropped in between Punto, Harris and Monroe. Punto tipped the ball just after it bounced, knocking it away from Monroe and allowing Rivas to reach second. Pitcher Ian Snell was next up, and he bunted hard back to Slowey, who whirled and threw to third, but Rivas was already there. He really should thrown it to first. With runners at the corners and nobody out, Slowey struck out McClouth looking with a terrific fastball tailing over the inside corner (a la Greg Maddux). Then the Pirates put the squeeze on, and the Twins had to take the out at first while Rivas scored.
Slowey has had pretty shaky defense behind him for three starts in a row and it finally caught up to him. Without the Twins giving the Pirates extra outs and bases, Slowey could have very easily gotten through his work today with no runs allowed. It certainly should have been fewer than 4. Basically, I'm not concerned, and I think he's going to be dynamite in the rotation this year.
Most of the Twins hitters were smacking it around pretty well today. The exception, alas, was Nick Punto, 0-4 with a walk and 3 strikeouts, 2 of them looking. I heard that Morneau had stayed behind today to get extra ABs with the minor leaguers - maybe Punto should do that too.
Monday, March 24, 2008
An Eventful Day
I'll go through the news in the order it happened:
Roster Cuts
The Twins announced 5 cuts before the game today, settling all but one spot on the 25-man roster.
Casey Daigle - needed a flawless spring to make the club, but was merely solid. No surprise.
Philip Humber - pitched extremely well this spring. In 14 IP, he gave up just 2 ER on 9 H and 3 BB. Now he'll stretch out at Rochester. He was the PCL leader in WHIP last season - if he keeps it up in the IL, we'll see him again this summer.
Jason Pridie - held his own in the CF competition, but displayed neither the OBP of Span nor the SLG% of Gomez. He'll likely see a ton of playing time in one of the corner OF spots for the Red Wings, and will be a candidate for an OF bench spot next year.
Brian Buscher - great first week of spring, then the hits dried up. He showed great improvement defensively, and will likely work on both corner IF positions in AAA.
Denard Span - the odd man out, despite finishing the spring with an SfC adjusted hitting line of .310/.420/.429. I didn't observe or hear of him making any mistakes in the field or on the bases. If he keeps it up at Rochester, I think he'll make his major league debut before too long.
This makes the winners of the various competitions:
2B - Brendan Harris - he's starting to warm up on both sides of the ball. Though I'm still glad Punto/Tolbert will be around for defensive replacement in the late innings.
12th pitcher - Brian Bass - despite his outing today (more on that below), he's had a fine spring, and will be lost to the organization if he doesn't make the roster. All indications are that he'll be a fine long-reliever.
Bench - Matt Tolbert - better/more versatile defensively than Buscher, better speed as a pinch-runner, also hit better this spring.
CF - Carlos Gomez - won the job with his speed, the only piece of his game which is major-league ready. While he will undoubtedly use it to create some runs, he will also give a lot of them back with his mistakes. I doubt he'll stick for long.
Nick Blackburn will be the last man cut this weekend, depending on how Liriano and Baker do in their starts this week. I doubt Blackburn will have to wait very long for his chance with the Twins.
Joe Nathan's Contract
In the third inning of today's broadcast, the Twins announced that they'd agreed to terms with Joe Nathan on a 4-year deal, with a club option for the 5th year. The exact terms haven't been published as of this moment, but it appears to be in line with Cordero's $46 million deal earlier this off-season.
I'm very pleased about this. After the Santana trade, I felt that it was imperative to lock up Joe Nathan, not because Neshek isn't capable of doing as good a job (he is), but because, after this tumultuous off-season, the Twins needed to show the fans that they are willing and able to pay market rates for their All-Star talent. Nathan will likely begin to decline by the end of the contract, but, at this point, it ensures that the Twins will have one of the top 3 closers in the game through 2011.
Neshek is under the Twins' control for all that time as well, meaning that, provided they both stay healthy and continue to produce at the rate they've established over the past 2 seasons, the Twins are effectively playing 7-inning ball games for the next 4 years. That's a huge boost to a young lineup and rotation.
Cardinals 8, Twins 4
Brian Bass got the start today, though he pitched from the stretch the whole time. He is going to be in the bullpen, so I think the Twins just wanted to see how far they could stretch him out. Answer: 3 innings. He was already beginning to falter in the 3rd, when he allowed a hit and a walk, but escaped unscathed. They sent him out for the 4th, and he promptly hit the wall - walk, double, walk, and his afternoon was over. I doubt he'll frequently be called upon to go more than 3 innings as the long reliever, and he was as good as he's been all spring in the first 2 innings, so I don't think this should shake anyone's confidence in him.
Dennys Reyes was called upon to get the Twins out of the 4th inning jam that Bass created. He got a broken-bat liner to Harris, who was able to double Ankiel off 2nd base. 2 outs, runners at the corners. It was difficult to visualize the next two plays, but as Dan described them, they were weak infield choppers. The first went over second base, where Tolbert allowed himself to be called off by Harris (who was running full-speed toward left field). Harris' throw to first was just late, and a run scored. I have a feeling Everett would have made that play. The next batter hit his ball over third base, and I guess Lamb fielded it while running into foul territory, and tried to touch the base as he went by, and the ump ruled that he hadn't. Anyway, that loaded the bases, and the next guy hit a clean single to center to score two. In summary, the box score lies again - Reyes pitched well, and with slightly better luck/defense could have escaped that jam unscathed.
Carlos Gomez was credited with a bunt single in his first AB, though Dan & John Gordon were once again incredulous that it was not ruled an error (the pitcher's throw pulled the first baseman off the bag). Gomez was quickly caught stealing for the first time this spring. He lined out to center in next AB, then finished the game with three strikeouts, the last on 3 pitches. Oh, and his "outfield assist" was another off-line throw that Morneau had to cut off, catching a different base runner in a rundown. This is why I would have waited to make the roster decisions until after today's game. Span's 0-4 yesterday was much more impressive than the 0-4 Gomez produced in his last ABs today.
Delmon Young had a pretty rough day at the plate with 2 Ks, but delivered with the bases loaded in the 9th for a 2-RBI single. He also made a nice running catch in the gap.
Lamb and Cuddyer continue to play great. Keep it up, guys.
Nice preview of the New Britain Rock Cats in the second half of the game today. Say what you like about the Cardinals' chances in this rebuilding year, they're definitely better than the Twins' AA team.
Roster Cuts
The Twins announced 5 cuts before the game today, settling all but one spot on the 25-man roster.
Casey Daigle - needed a flawless spring to make the club, but was merely solid. No surprise.
Philip Humber - pitched extremely well this spring. In 14 IP, he gave up just 2 ER on 9 H and 3 BB. Now he'll stretch out at Rochester. He was the PCL leader in WHIP last season - if he keeps it up in the IL, we'll see him again this summer.
Jason Pridie - held his own in the CF competition, but displayed neither the OBP of Span nor the SLG% of Gomez. He'll likely see a ton of playing time in one of the corner OF spots for the Red Wings, and will be a candidate for an OF bench spot next year.
Brian Buscher - great first week of spring, then the hits dried up. He showed great improvement defensively, and will likely work on both corner IF positions in AAA.
Denard Span - the odd man out, despite finishing the spring with an SfC adjusted hitting line of .310/.420/.429. I didn't observe or hear of him making any mistakes in the field or on the bases. If he keeps it up at Rochester, I think he'll make his major league debut before too long.
This makes the winners of the various competitions:
2B - Brendan Harris - he's starting to warm up on both sides of the ball. Though I'm still glad Punto/Tolbert will be around for defensive replacement in the late innings.
12th pitcher - Brian Bass - despite his outing today (more on that below), he's had a fine spring, and will be lost to the organization if he doesn't make the roster. All indications are that he'll be a fine long-reliever.
Bench - Matt Tolbert - better/more versatile defensively than Buscher, better speed as a pinch-runner, also hit better this spring.
CF - Carlos Gomez - won the job with his speed, the only piece of his game which is major-league ready. While he will undoubtedly use it to create some runs, he will also give a lot of them back with his mistakes. I doubt he'll stick for long.
Nick Blackburn will be the last man cut this weekend, depending on how Liriano and Baker do in their starts this week. I doubt Blackburn will have to wait very long for his chance with the Twins.
Joe Nathan's Contract
In the third inning of today's broadcast, the Twins announced that they'd agreed to terms with Joe Nathan on a 4-year deal, with a club option for the 5th year. The exact terms haven't been published as of this moment, but it appears to be in line with Cordero's $46 million deal earlier this off-season.
I'm very pleased about this. After the Santana trade, I felt that it was imperative to lock up Joe Nathan, not because Neshek isn't capable of doing as good a job (he is), but because, after this tumultuous off-season, the Twins needed to show the fans that they are willing and able to pay market rates for their All-Star talent. Nathan will likely begin to decline by the end of the contract, but, at this point, it ensures that the Twins will have one of the top 3 closers in the game through 2011.
Neshek is under the Twins' control for all that time as well, meaning that, provided they both stay healthy and continue to produce at the rate they've established over the past 2 seasons, the Twins are effectively playing 7-inning ball games for the next 4 years. That's a huge boost to a young lineup and rotation.
Cardinals 8, Twins 4
Brian Bass got the start today, though he pitched from the stretch the whole time. He is going to be in the bullpen, so I think the Twins just wanted to see how far they could stretch him out. Answer: 3 innings. He was already beginning to falter in the 3rd, when he allowed a hit and a walk, but escaped unscathed. They sent him out for the 4th, and he promptly hit the wall - walk, double, walk, and his afternoon was over. I doubt he'll frequently be called upon to go more than 3 innings as the long reliever, and he was as good as he's been all spring in the first 2 innings, so I don't think this should shake anyone's confidence in him.
Dennys Reyes was called upon to get the Twins out of the 4th inning jam that Bass created. He got a broken-bat liner to Harris, who was able to double Ankiel off 2nd base. 2 outs, runners at the corners. It was difficult to visualize the next two plays, but as Dan described them, they were weak infield choppers. The first went over second base, where Tolbert allowed himself to be called off by Harris (who was running full-speed toward left field). Harris' throw to first was just late, and a run scored. I have a feeling Everett would have made that play. The next batter hit his ball over third base, and I guess Lamb fielded it while running into foul territory, and tried to touch the base as he went by, and the ump ruled that he hadn't. Anyway, that loaded the bases, and the next guy hit a clean single to center to score two. In summary, the box score lies again - Reyes pitched well, and with slightly better luck/defense could have escaped that jam unscathed.
Carlos Gomez was credited with a bunt single in his first AB, though Dan & John Gordon were once again incredulous that it was not ruled an error (the pitcher's throw pulled the first baseman off the bag). Gomez was quickly caught stealing for the first time this spring. He lined out to center in next AB, then finished the game with three strikeouts, the last on 3 pitches. Oh, and his "outfield assist" was another off-line throw that Morneau had to cut off, catching a different base runner in a rundown. This is why I would have waited to make the roster decisions until after today's game. Span's 0-4 yesterday was much more impressive than the 0-4 Gomez produced in his last ABs today.
Delmon Young had a pretty rough day at the plate with 2 Ks, but delivered with the bases loaded in the 9th for a 2-RBI single. He also made a nice running catch in the gap.
Lamb and Cuddyer continue to play great. Keep it up, guys.
Nice preview of the New Britain Rock Cats in the second half of the game today. Say what you like about the Cardinals' chances in this rebuilding year, they're definitely better than the Twins' AA team.
Sunday, March 23, 2008
The Box Score Lies!
I had a lovely Easter here in Pasadena. It was sunny, in the high '80's. My wife and I made brunch for Kenneth the Cardinals fan and Jen the just returned from 6 weeks in Australia/New Zealand Red Sox fan. Good food, good friends, lovely weather. When they left around 3:30, I booted up the laptop to check on the Twins game today.
Four hitless innings from Liriano! Span went 0-4 with a walk - must have had a bad day at the plate. Pridie went 2-4 with 2 runs and a SB - must have had a good day at the plate. Rincon gave up 1 run on 3 hits (1 double) in his inning - guess he got shelled!
I noticed from the box score that the game lasted about 2.5 hours, and I decided I had time to listen and find out for myself whether everyone performed as the box score suggested.
Liriano needed 68 pitches to get through the 14 batters he faced, averaging nearly 5 pitches per AB. At that rate, he would need about 150 pitches to finish that no-hitter. Of the 6 balls that were put in play against him, only the first was hit hard. 3 of his strikeouts were looking, so it sounded like his stuff was pretty good - hard to read, hard to square up on the bat. But he had so many balls and deep counts (he allowed 2 BBs), I can't say the outing was an unqualified success. Certainly the best he's pitched so far, but he's not a lock for the rotation quite yet.
Span hit an easy grounder to second in his first AB and drew a 5-pitch walk in his second. His next 2 ABs were sharp 1-hop grounders, one to first, one to third. The one to third was on a 3-2 pitch and required a diving stop and strong throw to just nip Span at first. I suppose Gomez would have beaten it out, but it was still a good AB for Span. In his last time up in the 8th, he drove a ball down the line that the LF hauled in with a running basket catch. The Orioles played pretty crappy defense today, except when Span was hitting.
Neither of Pridie's two hits left the infield. One was a sharp grounder knocked down by the second baseman. The other was a routine grounder to first that was dropped by the first baseman (former Twin Chris Heintz), and pitcher Daniel Cabrera failed to catch his throw covering the bag. Dan Gladden and John Gordon couldn't believe it wasn't ruled an error. Both of Pridie's runs scored on plays that were ruled errors. If the O's had played solid D, Pridie would have been 1-4 at best, with no runs scored.
Rincon gave up a solid line drive down the RF line to Heintz to begin his inning. Cuddyer had just come out of the game, and Jon Knott was slow retrieving the ball, and made a slightly off-line throw to second, allowing Heintz to reach safely. I doubt he would have attempted to take the extra base on Cuddyer. The next batter slipped a 3-hop grounder through the right side to put runners at the corners. Rincon got the next guy to ground into a double play while the run scored. With 2 now out, the next batter's grounder to third was knocked down by minor league third baseman Luke Hughes. He picked the ball up, threw low to Buscher at first, who couldn't handle it, and the batter reached. Again, John and Dan were incredulous that it was scored a hit. The next batter grounded out weakly. So, really, Rincon didn't pitch as poorly as his line would suggest.
Humber, Nathan and Neshek were precisely as good as their lines suggest. The only hit allowed in their 4 innings of work was a bunt single.
Nick Punto, unfortunately, was every bit as bad as his line suggested (0-4 with a strikeout). The low-point came in the 5th. With the bases loaded and 1-out, Punto popped out to the second baseman in foul territory on a 2-0 pitch. Blecch.
Tomorrow should be an eventful day, as the Twins appear poised to announce a contract extension for Joe Nathan. They have also suggested that they will make a round of cuts tomorrow that will determine the outcome of most of the position battles. I assume they will wait until after tomorrow's game with the Cardinals, but stay tuned!
Four hitless innings from Liriano! Span went 0-4 with a walk - must have had a bad day at the plate. Pridie went 2-4 with 2 runs and a SB - must have had a good day at the plate. Rincon gave up 1 run on 3 hits (1 double) in his inning - guess he got shelled!
I noticed from the box score that the game lasted about 2.5 hours, and I decided I had time to listen and find out for myself whether everyone performed as the box score suggested.
Liriano needed 68 pitches to get through the 14 batters he faced, averaging nearly 5 pitches per AB. At that rate, he would need about 150 pitches to finish that no-hitter. Of the 6 balls that were put in play against him, only the first was hit hard. 3 of his strikeouts were looking, so it sounded like his stuff was pretty good - hard to read, hard to square up on the bat. But he had so many balls and deep counts (he allowed 2 BBs), I can't say the outing was an unqualified success. Certainly the best he's pitched so far, but he's not a lock for the rotation quite yet.
Span hit an easy grounder to second in his first AB and drew a 5-pitch walk in his second. His next 2 ABs were sharp 1-hop grounders, one to first, one to third. The one to third was on a 3-2 pitch and required a diving stop and strong throw to just nip Span at first. I suppose Gomez would have beaten it out, but it was still a good AB for Span. In his last time up in the 8th, he drove a ball down the line that the LF hauled in with a running basket catch. The Orioles played pretty crappy defense today, except when Span was hitting.
Neither of Pridie's two hits left the infield. One was a sharp grounder knocked down by the second baseman. The other was a routine grounder to first that was dropped by the first baseman (former Twin Chris Heintz), and pitcher Daniel Cabrera failed to catch his throw covering the bag. Dan Gladden and John Gordon couldn't believe it wasn't ruled an error. Both of Pridie's runs scored on plays that were ruled errors. If the O's had played solid D, Pridie would have been 1-4 at best, with no runs scored.
Rincon gave up a solid line drive down the RF line to Heintz to begin his inning. Cuddyer had just come out of the game, and Jon Knott was slow retrieving the ball, and made a slightly off-line throw to second, allowing Heintz to reach safely. I doubt he would have attempted to take the extra base on Cuddyer. The next batter slipped a 3-hop grounder through the right side to put runners at the corners. Rincon got the next guy to ground into a double play while the run scored. With 2 now out, the next batter's grounder to third was knocked down by minor league third baseman Luke Hughes. He picked the ball up, threw low to Buscher at first, who couldn't handle it, and the batter reached. Again, John and Dan were incredulous that it was scored a hit. The next batter grounded out weakly. So, really, Rincon didn't pitch as poorly as his line would suggest.
Humber, Nathan and Neshek were precisely as good as their lines suggest. The only hit allowed in their 4 innings of work was a bunt single.
Nick Punto, unfortunately, was every bit as bad as his line suggested (0-4 with a strikeout). The low-point came in the 5th. With the bases loaded and 1-out, Punto popped out to the second baseman in foul territory on a 2-0 pitch. Blecch.
Tomorrow should be an eventful day, as the Twins appear poised to announce a contract extension for Joe Nathan. They have also suggested that they will make a round of cuts tomorrow that will determine the outcome of most of the position battles. I assume they will wait until after tomorrow's game with the Cardinals, but stay tuned!
Saturday, March 22, 2008
The Home Stretch
I watched the Twins/Cards game today on MLB.TV. Yesterday I only had the box score to go on. Some quick thoughts:
Not a great day for Span yesterday (2 Ks and his first CS), but he did finish 1-3. Combined with his 2-strike single in the ninth today, he's raised his SfC adjusted line to .342/.444/.447. Of the hitters still in camp, only Joe Mauer and Craig Monroe have a higher OPS.
Pretty good outing from Livan, though, again, he wasn't facing many starters. Still, 5IP, 2ER on 3H, BB and 6Ks is about the best we can hope from him. Maybe he's ready to deliver another excellent April/May.
With competition for the last bullpen spot as tough as it is, Daigle might have blown it by giving up the lead in the ninth. Speaking of which, Perkins might have blown it with his outing in the 8th today. The pitch to Glaus that started the rally missed badly over the plate. He hasn't had a good enough spring to make it over the other guys.
Cuddyer looks awesome, but he always has good springs, doesn't he?
Great situational hitting in the 1st today. Gomez lined a 1-0 pitch for a double, Tolbert sent him to third with a grounder to right side, and Young hit a SF to deep center. Young added another SF with men at 2nd and 3rd in the 5th.
Pretty good job by Boof today. In the second, with a man on 3rd and 1 out, he got the grounder to 1st that he needed, but Morneau's throw to plate was high, allowing Glaus to slide in safely. With 2 out in the 4th, Boof walked the #9 hitter on 4 pitches, then fell behind Rasmus 1-0 before serving up a 2-run triple. Other than that little breakdown in concentration, he was effective. And he doubled off the wall(!) in his 2nd AB.
Kubel looked awful at the plate today. I hope he answers the bell in April - my fantasy team is counting on him to have a good OPS!
Buscher finally got a hit in his last AB. He made a terrific defensive play in the 5th. There may yet be time for him to earn the last bench spot.
With 3/4 of the spring training games in the books, here's how I'd evaluate the 35 Twins remaining in camp:
Getting it Done
Joe Mauer
Michael Cuddyer
Denard Span
Delmon Young - the BA & SLG% are dwindling, but he keeps driving in runs
Mike Lamb
Adam Everett - hope he doesn't use up all his hits in spring training
Craig Monroe - ditto
Boof Bonser
Kevin Slowey
Joe Nathan
Pat Neshek
Dennys Reyes
Philip Humber
Nick Blackburn
Brian Bass
So Far, So Good
Carlos Gomez - with an OBP of only .302, I just can't put him up there with Span
Eli Whiteside
Juan Rincon - too many walks to be up there with Reyes
Jesse Crain
Need to Pick It Up
Brendan Harris - seems to be warming up at the plate, and made a nice play in the hole today
Justin Morneau- still not much power...
Jason Kubel
Nick Punto
Mike Redmond
Jason Pridie
Matt Tolbert
Brian Buscher
Jon Knott
Drew Butera
Livan Hernandez - I'd like to see one more start like Friday before opening night
Francisco Liriano - better have a good week to show the team that he's ready for April
Scott Baker - ditto
Matt Guerrier
Glen Perkins
Casey Daigle
Since there may be one or two temporary rotation spots open, I'll list the starters in the order I think they should get chances. With seven games left, I'd fill the roster like this:
5th starter - Slowey, Blackburn, Humber
12 pitcher - Bass
CF - Span, but Gomez is making it tough on me
2B - Harris is finally solidly ahead of Punto
Bench - Buscher, by an eyelash over Tolbert
Not a great day for Span yesterday (2 Ks and his first CS), but he did finish 1-3. Combined with his 2-strike single in the ninth today, he's raised his SfC adjusted line to .342/.444/.447. Of the hitters still in camp, only Joe Mauer and Craig Monroe have a higher OPS.
Pretty good outing from Livan, though, again, he wasn't facing many starters. Still, 5IP, 2ER on 3H, BB and 6Ks is about the best we can hope from him. Maybe he's ready to deliver another excellent April/May.
With competition for the last bullpen spot as tough as it is, Daigle might have blown it by giving up the lead in the ninth. Speaking of which, Perkins might have blown it with his outing in the 8th today. The pitch to Glaus that started the rally missed badly over the plate. He hasn't had a good enough spring to make it over the other guys.
Cuddyer looks awesome, but he always has good springs, doesn't he?
Great situational hitting in the 1st today. Gomez lined a 1-0 pitch for a double, Tolbert sent him to third with a grounder to right side, and Young hit a SF to deep center. Young added another SF with men at 2nd and 3rd in the 5th.
Pretty good job by Boof today. In the second, with a man on 3rd and 1 out, he got the grounder to 1st that he needed, but Morneau's throw to plate was high, allowing Glaus to slide in safely. With 2 out in the 4th, Boof walked the #9 hitter on 4 pitches, then fell behind Rasmus 1-0 before serving up a 2-run triple. Other than that little breakdown in concentration, he was effective. And he doubled off the wall(!) in his 2nd AB.
Kubel looked awful at the plate today. I hope he answers the bell in April - my fantasy team is counting on him to have a good OPS!
Buscher finally got a hit in his last AB. He made a terrific defensive play in the 5th. There may yet be time for him to earn the last bench spot.
With 3/4 of the spring training games in the books, here's how I'd evaluate the 35 Twins remaining in camp:
Getting it Done
Joe Mauer
Michael Cuddyer
Denard Span
Delmon Young - the BA & SLG% are dwindling, but he keeps driving in runs
Mike Lamb
Adam Everett - hope he doesn't use up all his hits in spring training
Craig Monroe - ditto
Boof Bonser
Kevin Slowey
Joe Nathan
Pat Neshek
Dennys Reyes
Philip Humber
Nick Blackburn
Brian Bass
So Far, So Good
Carlos Gomez - with an OBP of only .302, I just can't put him up there with Span
Eli Whiteside
Juan Rincon - too many walks to be up there with Reyes
Jesse Crain
Need to Pick It Up
Brendan Harris - seems to be warming up at the plate, and made a nice play in the hole today
Justin Morneau- still not much power...
Jason Kubel
Nick Punto
Mike Redmond
Jason Pridie
Matt Tolbert
Brian Buscher
Jon Knott
Drew Butera
Livan Hernandez - I'd like to see one more start like Friday before opening night
Francisco Liriano - better have a good week to show the team that he's ready for April
Scott Baker - ditto
Matt Guerrier
Glen Perkins
Casey Daigle
Since there may be one or two temporary rotation spots open, I'll list the starters in the order I think they should get chances. With seven games left, I'd fill the roster like this:
5th starter - Slowey, Blackburn, Humber
12 pitcher - Bass
CF - Span, but Gomez is making it tough on me
2B - Harris is finally solidly ahead of Punto
Bench - Buscher, by an eyelash over Tolbert
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Night Baseball
I got to hear the last 6 innings of the game on TRN after work.
Kevin Slowey threw 5 shutout innings, allowing just 3 hits and striking out 5. In his last 9 spring innings, he's gotten 30 outs, giving up 1 run on 4 legitimate base hits, with 1 walk and 10 strikeouts, lowering his spring ERA to 4.02 over 15.2 innings. With Scott Baker likely missing his first turn in April, I'd say Slowey has pretty well made the team.
Carlos Gomez was in the middle of the Twins' offense tonight. Though he looked bad striking out on 3 pitches with a man on in the 5th, his double in the 3rd set up the Twins first run by moving Adam Everett to 3rd base, where he scored on a sac fly. In the 7th, he beat out an infield chopper that would have been the 3rd out with a slower runner. He promptly stole second, and scored on a bloop single by Butera. His mistakes are going to cost the team some games this year, but his speed may win as many or more.
Great job by the bullpen, throwing four scoreless innings. Special props to (the soon-to-be-extended?) Joe Nathan, who stretched it out to 2 IP, giving up just one hit and striking out three.
Brendan Harris had some good ABs tonight and played solid second base. Hopefully he's coming around.
Craig Monroe had a good 0-3 tonight, working deep counts, and driving the ball well twice.
I've added Slowey to my fantasy team - that's how confident I am in his potential for this year.
Kevin Slowey threw 5 shutout innings, allowing just 3 hits and striking out 5. In his last 9 spring innings, he's gotten 30 outs, giving up 1 run on 4 legitimate base hits, with 1 walk and 10 strikeouts, lowering his spring ERA to 4.02 over 15.2 innings. With Scott Baker likely missing his first turn in April, I'd say Slowey has pretty well made the team.
Carlos Gomez was in the middle of the Twins' offense tonight. Though he looked bad striking out on 3 pitches with a man on in the 5th, his double in the 3rd set up the Twins first run by moving Adam Everett to 3rd base, where he scored on a sac fly. In the 7th, he beat out an infield chopper that would have been the 3rd out with a slower runner. He promptly stole second, and scored on a bloop single by Butera. His mistakes are going to cost the team some games this year, but his speed may win as many or more.
Great job by the bullpen, throwing four scoreless innings. Special props to (the soon-to-be-extended?) Joe Nathan, who stretched it out to 2 IP, giving up just one hit and striking out three.
Brendan Harris had some good ABs tonight and played solid second base. Hopefully he's coming around.
Craig Monroe had a good 0-3 tonight, working deep counts, and driving the ball well twice.
I've added Slowey to my fantasy team - that's how confident I am in his potential for this year.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
The Hernandez Strategy
No, that's not the title of the lost Robert Ludlum thriller. It's how the Twins should extricate themselves from the mess they got themselves into when they signed Livan Hernandez.
After his pathetic start this weekend, I got really nervous about how much damage he was going to do to the Twins before he goes the way of Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, and Tony Batista. It certainly raised my eyebrows when neither he nor Gardy seemed the least bit concerned. "He knows how to pitch" says Gardy. "I always do bad in spring" says Livan.
I agree that Hernandez knows how to pitch. However, his stuff is so hittable at this stage of his career, his guile and craftiness won't be able to carry him very far. As for the bad spring comment, I decided to look it up.
He doesn't always do bad in spring. Not at all. His spring lines from the past 5 seasons:
2003: 15.2 IP, 6.59 ERA, 1.60 WHIP
2004: 19 IP, 2.37 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
2005: 33 IP, 2.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
2006: 20 IP, 1.80 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
2007: 10.1 IP, 13.06 ERA, 2.52 WHIP(!)
2003 was not particularly good, but the next three years were exactly what you'd like to see from your ace. He went on to have solid performances in each of those seasons (though he slipped substantially in 2006). Last year's spring was atrocious, and this year's (13 IP, 9.69 ERA, 2.15 WHIP) isn't much better so far. However, last year he answered the bell and had a very solid April and May, combining to go 5-2 over his first 11 starts, with 73 IP, 3.58 ERA, and 1.46 WHIP.
The Twins are hoping for similar production this spring, and there's hope he'll deliver. Over the last 6 years of his career, Hernandez has been very effective in April and May. Even as his overall numbers have declined over the past three seasons, his combined April/May numbers from 2005-2007 are decent:
35 starts, 233 IP, 4.09 ERA, .272 BA against
That's reasonably close to Carlos Silva. He turned out to be rather valuable this off-season. If Hernandez' ERA is anywhere close to 4.00 on May 31, the Twins should find someone to trade him to as quickly as possible. Sell high!
If they wait until June, it may be too late. June has been Livan's worst month throughout his career. Over the past three seasons, his combined June line is 99 IP, 5.69 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and .322 opponent's BA. No matter how well he pitches in the spring, he always goes in the tank in June. There's no reason to think this year will be any different. After he drops that type of performance, his trade value will diminish considerably. The Twins should pawn him off on some poor sucker while they still can!
Every summer, some team loses a starter and is looking for a proven innings-eater to help carry the rotation through the summer. By the end May the Twins will be in a wonderful position to help that team out.
That's because Rochester is going to have one or more starting pitchers in the rotation who would earn a spot on the opening day roster were Livan not in the way. If Baker and Liriano manage to overcome their setbacks and start the season in the rotation, I think it's likely that Nick Blackburn, Philip Humber, and Glen Perkins or Brian Bass (assuming he clears waivers) will be proving all they need to prove for 11 or so AAA starts. To say nothing of Brian Duensing or Kevin Mulvey. I'm probably forgetting somebody. The point is, somebody will be more than deserving of a shot in the Twins rotation by June.
So, best-case scenario: Livan gives the Twins about 70 competent innings in April and May, then gets shipped out for a decent return, while making room for a promising prospect. Two things could de-rail this plan:
1. The Twins don't have the sense to cash out after 2 months. It could be tough to part with someone who appears to be pitching well. But if they really want him to pitch 200+ innings in a Twins uniform, they should be prepared for at least 130 of those innings to totally suck.
2. Harrowing thought: what happens every June? At least 15 games of interleague play. Meaning, that was the month of the season when Hernandez was facing AL hitters. Maybe the reason Livan's numbers have been so mind-boggling awful every June has something to with the fact that he was up against DHs instead of pitchers, and stronger hitters overall. If that truly is the cause, his April may turn out to be like his past Junes. In that case, the Twins may not find a taker for him, and they'll just have to release him. Give them credit, they did it with Ponson et al. That outcome would certainly make his signing seem like a waste of money, though.
I'm rooting for history to repeat itself, and for Bill Smith to have the nerve to trade a winner while his value is still high.
But I'm preparing for a Ponson repeat as well.
After his pathetic start this weekend, I got really nervous about how much damage he was going to do to the Twins before he goes the way of Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, and Tony Batista. It certainly raised my eyebrows when neither he nor Gardy seemed the least bit concerned. "He knows how to pitch" says Gardy. "I always do bad in spring" says Livan.
I agree that Hernandez knows how to pitch. However, his stuff is so hittable at this stage of his career, his guile and craftiness won't be able to carry him very far. As for the bad spring comment, I decided to look it up.
He doesn't always do bad in spring. Not at all. His spring lines from the past 5 seasons:
2003: 15.2 IP, 6.59 ERA, 1.60 WHIP
2004: 19 IP, 2.37 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
2005: 33 IP, 2.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
2006: 20 IP, 1.80 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
2007: 10.1 IP, 13.06 ERA, 2.52 WHIP(!)
2003 was not particularly good, but the next three years were exactly what you'd like to see from your ace. He went on to have solid performances in each of those seasons (though he slipped substantially in 2006). Last year's spring was atrocious, and this year's (13 IP, 9.69 ERA, 2.15 WHIP) isn't much better so far. However, last year he answered the bell and had a very solid April and May, combining to go 5-2 over his first 11 starts, with 73 IP, 3.58 ERA, and 1.46 WHIP.
The Twins are hoping for similar production this spring, and there's hope he'll deliver. Over the last 6 years of his career, Hernandez has been very effective in April and May. Even as his overall numbers have declined over the past three seasons, his combined April/May numbers from 2005-2007 are decent:
35 starts, 233 IP, 4.09 ERA, .272 BA against
That's reasonably close to Carlos Silva. He turned out to be rather valuable this off-season. If Hernandez' ERA is anywhere close to 4.00 on May 31, the Twins should find someone to trade him to as quickly as possible. Sell high!
If they wait until June, it may be too late. June has been Livan's worst month throughout his career. Over the past three seasons, his combined June line is 99 IP, 5.69 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and .322 opponent's BA. No matter how well he pitches in the spring, he always goes in the tank in June. There's no reason to think this year will be any different. After he drops that type of performance, his trade value will diminish considerably. The Twins should pawn him off on some poor sucker while they still can!
Every summer, some team loses a starter and is looking for a proven innings-eater to help carry the rotation through the summer. By the end May the Twins will be in a wonderful position to help that team out.
That's because Rochester is going to have one or more starting pitchers in the rotation who would earn a spot on the opening day roster were Livan not in the way. If Baker and Liriano manage to overcome their setbacks and start the season in the rotation, I think it's likely that Nick Blackburn, Philip Humber, and Glen Perkins or Brian Bass (assuming he clears waivers) will be proving all they need to prove for 11 or so AAA starts. To say nothing of Brian Duensing or Kevin Mulvey. I'm probably forgetting somebody. The point is, somebody will be more than deserving of a shot in the Twins rotation by June.
So, best-case scenario: Livan gives the Twins about 70 competent innings in April and May, then gets shipped out for a decent return, while making room for a promising prospect. Two things could de-rail this plan:
1. The Twins don't have the sense to cash out after 2 months. It could be tough to part with someone who appears to be pitching well. But if they really want him to pitch 200+ innings in a Twins uniform, they should be prepared for at least 130 of those innings to totally suck.
2. Harrowing thought: what happens every June? At least 15 games of interleague play. Meaning, that was the month of the season when Hernandez was facing AL hitters. Maybe the reason Livan's numbers have been so mind-boggling awful every June has something to with the fact that he was up against DHs instead of pitchers, and stronger hitters overall. If that truly is the cause, his April may turn out to be like his past Junes. In that case, the Twins may not find a taker for him, and they'll just have to release him. Give them credit, they did it with Ponson et al. That outcome would certainly make his signing seem like a waste of money, though.
I'm rooting for history to repeat itself, and for Bill Smith to have the nerve to trade a winner while his value is still high.
But I'm preparing for a Ponson repeat as well.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
2/3 of the Grapefruit
The Twins finished their 20th of 30 spring games this afternoon, a 4-2 win over the Orioles. After tomorrow's off day, they'll play a game for each of the next ten days, then head back to MN after their last game in Bradenton. Here are some thoughts at this stage of the spring:
Joe Mauer is freakin' awesome! In three PAs today, he drew a walk, hit a 2-run homer the opposite way, then added an RBI single. That raises his spring line to a ludicrous .458/.548/.833, with 2 HRs and 7 RBIs. Did I mention that he's on my fantasy team?
Denard Span got the start in CF today. In 4 PAs, he drew a walk, sacrificed, doubled and struck out. That raises his SfC adjusted line to .324/.439/.471. He's done just about everything they've asked of him so far.
Carlos Gomez went 0-3. After forcing Span in the first, he stole 2nd, and 3rd, and scored on a grounder by Cuddyer. Another run conjured from thin air.
Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris continue to struggle at the plate. Matt Tolbert got a start today and went 3-4. Could he be edging one of them out for the last bench spot?
Humber, Blackburn, and Perkins all pitched well. With the status of Liriano and Baker in some doubt, it now seems possible that all three could make the team.
Finally, in world outside of baseball news, Barack Obama is unbelievably better at speaking than the current president.
Joe Mauer is freakin' awesome! In three PAs today, he drew a walk, hit a 2-run homer the opposite way, then added an RBI single. That raises his spring line to a ludicrous .458/.548/.833, with 2 HRs and 7 RBIs. Did I mention that he's on my fantasy team?
Denard Span got the start in CF today. In 4 PAs, he drew a walk, sacrificed, doubled and struck out. That raises his SfC adjusted line to .324/.439/.471. He's done just about everything they've asked of him so far.
Carlos Gomez went 0-3. After forcing Span in the first, he stole 2nd, and 3rd, and scored on a grounder by Cuddyer. Another run conjured from thin air.
Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris continue to struggle at the plate. Matt Tolbert got a start today and went 3-4. Could he be edging one of them out for the last bench spot?
Humber, Blackburn, and Perkins all pitched well. With the status of Liriano and Baker in some doubt, it now seems possible that all three could make the team.
Finally, in world outside of baseball news, Barack Obama is unbelievably better at speaking than the current president.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
...And Bad News
Listened to TRN again today.
Good day at the plate for Mauer, Morneau, and Monroe. Span took advantage of the hole on the right side in his 1 AB, raising his Sense from Center Adjusted hitting line to .323/.432/.452. Nathan and Crain pitched a scoreless inning each.
Gomez got another bunt single in his first AB, stole second, moved to 3rd on a throwing error from the catcher (needlessly diving head-first into the bag), and scored on a single by Mauer. In his next AB, he failed to advance Punto from 2nd with nobody out, striking out swinging on 4 pitches. He knocked himself out of the game in the top of the 5th, crashing into the CF wall while making a terrific running catch. Sounds like he's going to be OK.
Buscher and Harris each hit the ball hard in their first ABs, but ended the day with nothing to show for themselves. Harris twice failed to drive anyone in with the bases loaded.
Randy Keisler and Juan Rincon got themselves into trouble with walks. Though Keisler didn't give up any runs, I wouldn't be surprised to see him cut soon. This was Rincon's first bad inning - hopefully it's a fluke.
The really disconcerting thing about this game was the performance by Livan Hernandez. He managed to give up 6ER on 9H and a BB to a Blue Jays lineup consisting entirely of backups and minor leaguers. I can't say I'm looking forward to him facing starters! He isn't going to be an "innings-eater" if he has to leave the game in the 5th inning because he can't get anybody out. He's got two more spring starts to try and put things together. Right now, I can't believe that either Slowey or Blackburn will have to start the season in Rochester so Livan can make the opening day start. Yikes!
The broadcast today featured some thoughts from Twins president Jerry Bell and former manager Tom Kelly. TK said he would be inclined to give the CF job to Gomez, despite the mistakes he would expect, because of his game-changing speed. Dan Gladden feels (as I do) that Span is the better choice because he is more polished and would make all the plays. Gardy has acknowledged that Span has been playing more consistently well, while Gomez is far more explosive and exciting. It will be interesting to see which he ultimately values more.
Good day at the plate for Mauer, Morneau, and Monroe. Span took advantage of the hole on the right side in his 1 AB, raising his Sense from Center Adjusted hitting line to .323/.432/.452. Nathan and Crain pitched a scoreless inning each.
Gomez got another bunt single in his first AB, stole second, moved to 3rd on a throwing error from the catcher (needlessly diving head-first into the bag), and scored on a single by Mauer. In his next AB, he failed to advance Punto from 2nd with nobody out, striking out swinging on 4 pitches. He knocked himself out of the game in the top of the 5th, crashing into the CF wall while making a terrific running catch. Sounds like he's going to be OK.
Buscher and Harris each hit the ball hard in their first ABs, but ended the day with nothing to show for themselves. Harris twice failed to drive anyone in with the bases loaded.
Randy Keisler and Juan Rincon got themselves into trouble with walks. Though Keisler didn't give up any runs, I wouldn't be surprised to see him cut soon. This was Rincon's first bad inning - hopefully it's a fluke.
The really disconcerting thing about this game was the performance by Livan Hernandez. He managed to give up 6ER on 9H and a BB to a Blue Jays lineup consisting entirely of backups and minor leaguers. I can't say I'm looking forward to him facing starters! He isn't going to be an "innings-eater" if he has to leave the game in the 5th inning because he can't get anybody out. He's got two more spring starts to try and put things together. Right now, I can't believe that either Slowey or Blackburn will have to start the season in Rochester so Livan can make the opening day start. Yikes!
The broadcast today featured some thoughts from Twins president Jerry Bell and former manager Tom Kelly. TK said he would be inclined to give the CF job to Gomez, despite the mistakes he would expect, because of his game-changing speed. Dan Gladden feels (as I do) that Span is the better choice because he is more polished and would make all the plays. Gardy has acknowledged that Span has been playing more consistently well, while Gomez is far more explosive and exciting. It will be interesting to see which he ultimately values more.
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Good News
I got to see the Twins/Phillies game (as broadcast by FSN) on MLB.TV today. I'll start with the bad news:
The hits still aren't falling in for Justin Morneau. Garrett Jones took a called third strike with men on base in the 9th. I don't think he's going to make the team.
OK, now on to the good news:
4 solid innings from Kevin Slowey, allowing 1 run on 2 hits while striking out 5 and walking 1. The run came on a solo Homer by Ryan Howard, and the walk was to Howard as well - no shame there. The second "hit" came when Delmon Young lost a fly ball in the sun. Slowey actually pitched well enough to get 14 outs while having only 2 base runners. Two more good starts, and he'll make the team.
Glen Perkins got into a little trouble in the 6th when Chase Utley lined the first pitch high off the centerfield wall, Howard walked, and Pat Burrell delivered an RBI single. The first 3 pitches to Howard were all close (many had been called strikes earlier in the game), and the Burrell single was a 3-hopper just past a diving Everett in the hole. But Perkins came back to get the next three guys and stay out of a big inning.
Dennys Reyes, Pat Neshek, and Casey Daigle cleaned up with a quick, perfect inning each.
Every Twins starter (except poor Morneau, who was robbed of a hit by Utley in the 5th) had at least one hit:
Delmon Young was 2-4 with a double and an RBI.
Jason Kuble was 2-3 with a homer, RBI, and BB - he seems to be coming to life a bit.
Mike Lamb was 1-3 with a double, and he's hilarious!
Tommy Watkins delivered a 2-run single in the 9th.
Nick Punto was 2-4 with a 2-run triple, BB, and SB - hopefully he can relax a little bit now that he's put a good game together.
Jason Pridie got a hit in his only AB and is now hitting .333 for the spring.
Denard Span had another good day, going 2-5 with an RBI double, R, and a fine running catch at the track in right-center. But that performance was masked by:
Carlos Gomez
What a terrific game he had. The box score line looks fantastic: 3-4 with a 2-run HR, 3 runs scored, a walk(!) and 2 SBs. But that doesn't fully explain it. I missed his first AB, but in the 4 I saw, he went deep into the count in each, with the exception of the bunt single in the 7th. I was very impressed to see him follow a homer with a very well-placed bunt in his next AB. Then he stole second even though they never threw home! The lefty pitcher threw to first, and the 1B threw promptly to 2nd base, but Gomez beat it. He then scored from 2nd on a flare single from Young that just got over Utley's head. Utley actually fielded the ball himself in short right, whirled and threw a strike to the plate, but Gomez got in with a spectacular slide, well to the foul side of the plate, catching with his fingertips the 2 inches of the dish not blocked by the catcher (who didn't even bother to attempt a tag).
The implications of Gomez' performance today are clear: if he can work the count enough to get on base on a regular basis, he's a game-changer. That run in the 7th came without the benefit of a well-hit ball. It was all speed. Such superlative speed that, if he plays a complete season, I have no doubt that Gomez could challenge for the SB title of the AL, if not all of MLB. That's something the marketing department can work with, and it certainly would make the fans feel a little better about losing Santana.
Gomez has now put together two good games in a row (hitting for the cycle between them). But it's the change in approach that impresses me more than the outcome. Officially, his BA has nearly caught Span (.250 to .259, respectively. Though I still consider Span to have 2 more hits, which would put him at .300). Span clearly has the edge in OBP (.275 to .417, the way I'm keeping score), and has played slightly more consistent defense. But Gomez has a significant edge in SLG% (.500 to .433 - even giving Span the extra 3 bases from the rain-out), throwing, and base-stealing ability.
I don't think the Twins can afford to have their leadoff hitter get on base less than 30% of the time, so Gomez still has a ways to go to make the team. However, if he can get his OBP anywhere close to .333, the chances of him being in scoring position are so high, it might almost make up for the 2 times out of 3 he doesn't get on. I'm not on the bandwagon yet, but, for the first time, I'm really excited about his potential.
The hits still aren't falling in for Justin Morneau. Garrett Jones took a called third strike with men on base in the 9th. I don't think he's going to make the team.
OK, now on to the good news:
4 solid innings from Kevin Slowey, allowing 1 run on 2 hits while striking out 5 and walking 1. The run came on a solo Homer by Ryan Howard, and the walk was to Howard as well - no shame there. The second "hit" came when Delmon Young lost a fly ball in the sun. Slowey actually pitched well enough to get 14 outs while having only 2 base runners. Two more good starts, and he'll make the team.
Glen Perkins got into a little trouble in the 6th when Chase Utley lined the first pitch high off the centerfield wall, Howard walked, and Pat Burrell delivered an RBI single. The first 3 pitches to Howard were all close (many had been called strikes earlier in the game), and the Burrell single was a 3-hopper just past a diving Everett in the hole. But Perkins came back to get the next three guys and stay out of a big inning.
Dennys Reyes, Pat Neshek, and Casey Daigle cleaned up with a quick, perfect inning each.
Every Twins starter (except poor Morneau, who was robbed of a hit by Utley in the 5th) had at least one hit:
Delmon Young was 2-4 with a double and an RBI.
Jason Kuble was 2-3 with a homer, RBI, and BB - he seems to be coming to life a bit.
Mike Lamb was 1-3 with a double, and he's hilarious!
Tommy Watkins delivered a 2-run single in the 9th.
Nick Punto was 2-4 with a 2-run triple, BB, and SB - hopefully he can relax a little bit now that he's put a good game together.
Jason Pridie got a hit in his only AB and is now hitting .333 for the spring.
Denard Span had another good day, going 2-5 with an RBI double, R, and a fine running catch at the track in right-center. But that performance was masked by:
Carlos Gomez
What a terrific game he had. The box score line looks fantastic: 3-4 with a 2-run HR, 3 runs scored, a walk(!) and 2 SBs. But that doesn't fully explain it. I missed his first AB, but in the 4 I saw, he went deep into the count in each, with the exception of the bunt single in the 7th. I was very impressed to see him follow a homer with a very well-placed bunt in his next AB. Then he stole second even though they never threw home! The lefty pitcher threw to first, and the 1B threw promptly to 2nd base, but Gomez beat it. He then scored from 2nd on a flare single from Young that just got over Utley's head. Utley actually fielded the ball himself in short right, whirled and threw a strike to the plate, but Gomez got in with a spectacular slide, well to the foul side of the plate, catching with his fingertips the 2 inches of the dish not blocked by the catcher (who didn't even bother to attempt a tag).
The implications of Gomez' performance today are clear: if he can work the count enough to get on base on a regular basis, he's a game-changer. That run in the 7th came without the benefit of a well-hit ball. It was all speed. Such superlative speed that, if he plays a complete season, I have no doubt that Gomez could challenge for the SB title of the AL, if not all of MLB. That's something the marketing department can work with, and it certainly would make the fans feel a little better about losing Santana.
Gomez has now put together two good games in a row (hitting for the cycle between them). But it's the change in approach that impresses me more than the outcome. Officially, his BA has nearly caught Span (.250 to .259, respectively. Though I still consider Span to have 2 more hits, which would put him at .300). Span clearly has the edge in OBP (.275 to .417, the way I'm keeping score), and has played slightly more consistent defense. But Gomez has a significant edge in SLG% (.500 to .433 - even giving Span the extra 3 bases from the rain-out), throwing, and base-stealing ability.
I don't think the Twins can afford to have their leadoff hitter get on base less than 30% of the time, so Gomez still has a ways to go to make the team. However, if he can get his OBP anywhere close to .333, the chances of him being in scoring position are so high, it might almost make up for the 2 times out of 3 he doesn't get on. I'm not on the bandwagon yet, but, for the first time, I'm really excited about his potential.
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