The Breaks: Morneau

When Justin Morneau took over 1B for good in the middle of the 2004 season, I didn't just think that the Twins were sure to snap their drought of 30 HR seasons. That was certain to happen, based on the young slugger's 19 HR in just 280 AB that season. No, I figured the Twins were going to have their first 40 HR hitter since Harmon Killebrew. Though Morneau hit just .271/.340/.536, hardly the most slugtastic line we'd seen in that juiced-up period, his combined total between the Majors and AAA in 2004 was 41 HR in 568 AB. In Rochester, he'd been slugging close to 1.000. Surely, if he could accomplish that as a 23 year-old rookie, he was bound to repeat the feat soon in a full season for the Twins.

This May, Morneau will turn 29. Some would say he's already peaked. And his career averages with the stick are .280/.350/.501 - actually lower than what he put up in his rookie year - with about 30 HR/162 G. Most of the projections I've seen for his 2010 season so far have him hitting around that, but with improved OBP. PECOTA has him at .284/.372/.508 with 29 HR. After 5+ seasons and about 3500 PA, we should know what kind of player Morneau is, and that projection looks about right based on his career so far. He's a good 1B, not a great one.

But I still think of Morneau as a 40 HR guy who is underachieving. Why? Because, with the exception of a fluky 2008 in which more drives than usual found the top of the wall (leading to a career-high 47 2B, but only 23 HR), the guy has consistently put himself on pace through the first 2/3 of the season to hit 40 HR. Look at his numbers through the end of July from the last 4 seasons:

2006: .321/.364/.601, 28 HR
2007: .297/.363/.574, 28 HR
2008: .321/.396/.534, 18 HR
2009: .305/.390/.576, 26 HR

And remember, last year the season started a week later than the previous years. Give him a few days into August and it goes up to .301/.391/.589 with 28 HR.

So from the start of the season until the 1st of August, Morneau is a .311/.379/.570 hitter with 35-40 HR power. That's somebody who fits right in with Miguel Cabrera and Mark Teixeira. A great 1B.

Unfortunately, once the calendar turns to August, things invariably go downhill. His combined line from August 1st on since 2006: .255/.334/.406 with 12-15 HR power. That's somebody who fits right in with Brendan Harris. If that's what you're getting from your 1B, you've got problems. And even that line is propped up a bit by his strong finish to 2006. Look at his BA over the last 4 seasons:

And then his OPS:

4 years of Aprils, Mays, Junes and Julys make 16 individual months. In just 2 of those months did Morneau have a BA below .250, and his OPS dipped below .750 in just one. But he failed to meet those thresholds in 5 of the 8 individual Augusts and Septembers over those seasons. Basically, that means Morneau is about 10 times more likely to hit poorly in the last 2 months of the season as he is in the first 4 months. And even in the 3 late-season months in which he didn't suck, he still wasn't hitting HR anywhere close to his early season pace. Look at what happens to his power:

His IsoP has been above .200 in 13 out of 16 months from April-July. But it's never been above .200 in August or September.

This isn't a matter of luck - variances in BABIP or the like. This is a systemic problem with Morneau himself. He runs out of gas before the season is over. He may have thought it was a problem with his conditioning. Maybe that's why he's trained so hard in the offseason, reported early to spring training, and showed up first thing in the morning to work on his hitting. But that regimen hasn't paid off. He still wore down over the course of 2008, playing all 163 games and fading badly enough down the stretch to cost the Twins the division and himself a 2nd MVP award. Then he arrived in game shape by mid-February 2009 so he could go off to play for Canada in the WBC (and hit quite well in their brief appearance). Though Gardy tried to give him more days off and at DH, Morneau still broke down by mid-August, when he missed a week, and finally shut things down 3 weeks before the end of the season.

Time to try a different approach. That's why reading these stories has given me new hope for Morneau in 2010. If he can adjust his training schedule so that he doesn't reach his previous mid-February shape until the first week of April, could that mean that he won't reach his early-August fatigue level until late September? What would it mean for the Twins if he could sustain that .311/.379/.570 line through the final 2 months of the season?

The PECOTA projection I gave above, combined with his typical, above-average defense, would be worth 3.9 WARP. His 80th percentile projection is for .306/.391/.577 with 38 HR. That season would be worth 5.8 WARP. If Morneau's lighter offseason workload can translate into a more consistent full season, it could mean 2 more wins for the Twins. And we all know from the last 2 seasons how far an extra couple of wins can take a team in the AL Central.

25 Good Innings

Twins 11, Mariners 0
Twins 9, Mariners 6
Mariners 5, Twins 3

The Twins came within 2 innings of a weekend sweep in which they never trailed - quite a departure from the first couple weeks of the season. Some observations from the series:

Last season I predicted that Joe Mauer would have a breakout year in the HR department because, with his legs back under him, all those warning track outs to left-center would have just enough extra on them to carry into the seats. It didn't happen in 2008, but so far he has 3 HR in his first 33 AB of 2009, all of them just over the wall in left-center. Mauer has been all-around awesome since coming off the DL. He'll cool off, of course, but there's no reason to think that this can't be his best ever OPS season. Provided he stays healthy, of course.

Right behind him is Justin Morneau, who twice followed Mauer's HR to left with blasts to RF, and came very close to having a 3rd straight game with a HR when his 3rd-inning drive on Sunday hit the top corner of the baggie in deep right-center. (That makes 2 balls from Morneau so far this season that would have been out just about everywhere but the Metrodome.)

As well as those two are swinging, I think it's time to move Cuddyer up in the order, if not between them, then certainly right after Morneau. For Cuddyer, the signal of whether or not he's seeing the ball well is his walk rate, which has been through the roof in recent weeks.

Scott Baker finally put it all together. He was so close to that level in his previous start - his failure last Sunday was in allowing all his hits consecutively - that I feel pretty confident that he's ready to resume his position as the Twins most consistent starter.

Did Francisco Liriano's outing on Saturday remind anybody of Baker's the previous week? He only made it once through the order without a hit, but it still fell apart awfully quickly. Thank goodness he got plenty of run support.

Nick Blackburn has, for the most part, been pretty good about following a poor start with a good one. That was the case again on Sunday, when he pitched his best all-around game of the season, allowing only 5 H and 1 BB in 7 IP with 6 K - nearly matching Baker's outing. I was impressed with how Blackburn was able to pitch out of a runners at the corners with no out jam early in the game.

With Blackburn at 99 pitches and lefties Ichiro and Griffey Jr. due up in the 8th, it made sense to go to the LHP 8th inning guy, Jose Mijares. He was scored upon for the second straight outing, in this case on a game-tying HR to Griffey. Griffey, by the way, is slugging .611 vs. the Twins this year, and just .317 vs. everybody else. Jesse Crain came on and failed to retire a batter, including sending a run home on a WP. The first batter he faced was Adrian Beltre. He's sluggling .680 vs. the Twins, but just .243 vs. everyone else. So what does everybody else know that the Twins pitchers don't?

Sunday was a rare example of a game in which the team that threw drastically more pitches managed to win. I love that the Twins, having chased Seattle's starters early on in the first two games of the series, were able to grind Erik Bedard out of the game with 110 pitches thrown in just 4.2 IP. It's a credit to Bedard's abilities that he was able to limit the damage to just 2 runs. Anyway, that kind of patient approach is going to pay dividends if the Twins will keep it up in future games.

Recognition

For once, I was pretty pleased with the way the MLB awards were handed out this year. Normally, the writers make at least one terrible call based on won-lost record or RBIs or - even worse - team performance. They had a great opportunity to do that again with NL MVP, with Phillie Ryan Howard a mile ahead in HR and RBI, but wisely gave the award to Albert Pujols instead, despite his team failing to make the playoffs. Sure, Johan Santana once again missed out on the Cy Young due to poor run support, but Tim Lincecum was clearly the next best choice, finishing in the top 3 in the NL in IP, K, ERA and, yes, W.

The Twins didn't pick up any of the big awards after Joe Mauer's batting title. Mauer also took home a Gold Glove, and he and Justin Morneau were given Silver Sluggers for being the best hitters at their respective positions (a little strange, considering Kevin Youkilis topped Morneau in BA, OBP, SLG% and HR). Despite missing out on the hardware, the Twins did get some pretty serious respect from the voters.

Ron Gardenhire came in 2nd in the Manager of the Year voting, the 4th time he's been runner-up for the award. I'll be the first to admit that he is often very slow to make personnel changes, and he pretty consistently makes some bad picks out of spring training. But the fundamentals of the team are always pretty strong, and by July, he's usually got things figured out. The Twins seem to outperform the projections every year, and Gardy's leadership is most likely a factor. His career win percentage is now .549 (average season: 89-73). He has his shortcomings, but I'm still glad to have him around through at least 2011.

Morneau came in 2nd for AL MVP and Mauer was 4th. Each of them received more than one first-place vote. Morneau might have come even closer had he managed one more big hit over the season's final 2 weeks - that might have brought him the RBI title and brought his team to the postseason. For him to finish ahead of Youkilis shows tremendous respect from the national writers. The same goes for Mauer, who drew a lot more votes than you'd expect for a big #3 hitter who had just 9 HR and 85 RBi. Clearly, the Twins have 2 elite players in the heart of their lineup, and don't need too much more around them to be a perennial force in the division. (Also, this wouldn't be a bad time to start thinking about an extension for Mauer - don't want to end up in the same situation they were in with Santana last year.)

It was also nice to see a couple of Twins rookies get some votes in the ROY balloting. Denard Span drew 3 3rd-place votes even though he spent almost half the season in the minors. Had the Twins wisely chosen to give him the CF job out of spring training, his numbers might have been better than those of the 3rd-place finisher, Jacoby Ellsbury. And Nick Blackburn got 1 point. His season was bookended by 1-0 losses, and in between he got 5 no-decisions after handing a lead to the bullpen. How many more votes would he have earned with 15 or so wins to go along with his 4.05 ERA and 193.1 IP?

The Twins have some very exciting players on the roster, and most of them are just entering their prime. They're all under team control for at least the next two years. We have a lot to look forward to.

Fit To Be Tied

Despite the best efforts of Jim Leyland and Freddie Garcia, the injury-depleted Tigers lineup couldn't do much against a short-rested Gavin Floyd, and when Garcia had to leave the game with a shoulder strain after 5+ innings, the Tigers showed why they're a last place team. In case you missed it, the sequence went: walk, stolen base, (new pitcher), wild pitch, wild pitch walk tying run scored, (new pitcher) wild pitch, strikeout, intentional walk, unintentional walk, (new pitcher) grand slam. 4 pitchers combined to give up 5 ER on 1 H, 4 BB and 3 WP in 1/3 of an inning. The first White Sox run came from walk, walk, ground-ball single. The last two came from IF hit, stolen base, double, wild pitch, fielding error. All together, the Sox got 8 R on 6 H, 6 BB, 4 WP and an error. 5 of the 6 batters who walked came around to score.

So the Twins and White Sox wind up with identical records through 162 games - fitting, since neither was able to separated from the other by more than a couple games for most of the season - and will meet tonight for 1 game to decide the division. The teams have identical home/road splits as well, which is a bad break for the Twins, since the coin flip determined that this game would be played in Chicago, where the Sox are 53-28. I'll preview the game in a minute, but first I have to take a minute to look back.

Tied.

That means 1 game would have made tonight unnecessary. Any loss turned into a win. One better AB, one better bounce. I'm sure everyone can think of several games that the Twins should have won this season. My dad is partial to the extra-inning loss in Cleveland 2 weeks ago that I commented on yesterday. Here's my favorite:

August 10th in KC. Scott Baker pitches 7 strong innings, handing a 4-2 lead to the bullpen. In steps Matt Guerrier, in the early stages of his collapse, to allow 2 hits and only one out. In comes Dennys Reyes to face consecutive lefties. He throws a wild pitch to allow one run to score, but induces easy ground balls from each batter he faces. The first advances the tying run to 3rd. The second is a routine two-hopper to short, not too hard, not too soft. Adam Everett fields it cleanly, sets his feet, and throws too high to first base, forcing Mike Lamb (Justin Morneau was the DH that day) to leap off the bag to catch the ball. Safe at first, the tying run scores, and the Twins go on to lose 5-4 in 12 innings.

How about another one? September 3rd in Toronto. The Twins lead 3-2 with 2 out in the bottom of the 9th and a runner on 1st. Joe Nathan is battling Toronto wonder-prospect Travis Snider, who works the count to 3-2 before lining the ball into right-center. There is no outfielder in sight, and with the runner going, a run seems possible. But the Twins have inserted September call-up Jason Pridie into RF, and he is speedy enough to cut the ball off - he even rounds it and points his hips toward the infield. If he just picks the ball up off the Sky Dome field turf, the runner stops at 3rd. Instead, the ball clanged off the heal of his glove, allowing the tying run to score. Nathan struck the next batter out. The Twins went on to lose in 11 innings.

I mention these two games because so many of the little things that cause you to lose baseball games aren't really within your control. If only he'd made a better pitch, if only he'd laid off that slider in the dirt, if only Sizemore's HR off the foul pole had hooked a bit more. Well, those things don't always work out, but sometimes they do. It usually evens out over 162 games. But errors are different. You don't have to wish the ball was pitched or hit any differently. All a MLB fielder had to do was make a routine play, and the tying run would never have scored. I like the KC example better because Pridie was making his MLB debut, and did have to run a long way to cut off the ball. Everett is a veteran of many seasons, and the ball was hit right to him, and he didn't have to rush. He just blew it.

And so, thanks to that (or whatever your favorite missed opportunity happens to be), the Twins play tonight. I guess it's fitting that they need to win on the road to keep their season alive, after so many of their failures happened away from home. All 6 of Nathan's blown saves, most of which were helped along by poor defense. Egregious sweeps by the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays and White Sox. That 4-game Sox sweep in early June was probably the low point of the season for the Twins. Coming into the series, they were 2-3 vs. the Sox in Chicago. They'll have to make up for their failure in that series by playing well tonight.

The pitching matchup is about as favorable as it could be. The Twins have terrific career numbers vs. John Danks, and he's going to be working on short rest. Apart from Francisco Liriano (who would be on short rest), Nick Blackburn is the least likely of the Twins' starters to allow a HR, and the most likely to induce grounders. On a night when the wind could be blowing out against the most prolific HR team in the league, that's a good thing.

My Keys to the Game:

1. Keep it in the Yard
The way they've been swinging the bats lately, I seriously doubt that the White Sox will be able to score more than a couple of runs without help from the long ball.

2. No Free Passes
Blackburn is also unlikely to allow a lot of walks, but he gives up a high enough BAA that he'd better not give away any bases. Again, the way the Sox have been swinging lately, I can't see them stringing enough hits together to score more than a couple of runs.

3. Catch the Ball
This game wouldn't be happening if the Twins had played their typical solid defense this year. Just for one night, let's make all the plays - no extra bases, no extra outs. If the Sox have to earn every base, I can't see them scoring more than a couple of runs.

4. Run Like Hell
The Twins have a huge speed advantage over the Sox. This will hopefully help them cut off balls in the gaps. But they also need to pressure the White Sox on defense. With Crede out, they're shaky at the corner IF and old and slow in the OF, and their catcher is one of the easiest to run on in all of baseball. Bunt, steal, hit and run, go first-to-third - run, run, run.

5. Set the Table
To take advantage of their speed, the Twins' speed guys will have to get on. Wouldn't it be great to have another night like last Thursday, when Carlos Gomez, Denard Span and Alexi Casilla went 9-14 with a walk?

6. Feast
Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Michael Cuddyer all have monster career numbers vs. Danks. When they come up with men on, they have to get hits. Morneau, in particular, needs to atone for flat last week of the season and see if he can't steal back the AL RBI title.

It's funny how the Twins and White Sox play such completely different offensive styles, yet accumulated the same record. In addition to everything else at stake tonight, this game is a mini-referendum on Ty Cobb-style baseball vs. Babe Ruth-style: the speedy little singles hitters vs. the big, slow, boppers. I know which side I'd like to see prevail.

Fortune Frowns on the Twins

Royals 4, Twins 2
Magic Number: 2

It appears that the baseball gods want to see this one-game playoff next week. Things may yet turn out all right, but it's excruciating to see the bounces going against my team at a time when they have to win.

The first bounce came in the 6th inning. Boof Bonser relieved Glen Perkins, and gave up 4 H without retiring a batter. In fairness to Boof, only one of the hits was a solid line drive - the others were 2 choppers and a flare. The second chopper was the first place fate turned on the Twins. It was just over and to the right of the mound. If Boof fields it cleanly, he starts a DP. If he doesn't touch it at all, Alexi Casilla fields it and starts a DP. Instead, Boof deflected it into short RF, allowing the tying run to score.

The second bounce came the next inning. Matt Guerrier was called on to rescue Boof, which he managed to do in spite of falling behind 2-0 on each hitter he faced with the bases loaded. One sent a ball over the bag at third that Brendan Harris was able to turn into a force at the plate, the other hit a liner to Justin Morneau at first. Gardy left Guerrier out there to start the 7th, and he promptly fell behind the first 2 hitters and surrendered singles to each. Jesse Crain was brough in to rescue Guerrier. Bad bounce #2 happened on a slider in the dirt that struck out Jose Guillen - it skipped away from Joe Mauer, allowing the runners to advance to 2nd and 3rd and prompting the infielders to play in. The next hitter lofted a broken bat blooper that would have easily been caught by Morneau at his normal position. Instead, it was just far enough out of reach to tick off his glove and allow the go-ahead runs to score.

Morneau is pressing at the plate, and it's hurting the team. He went 0-3 with RISP. This was most egregious when he followed Joe Mauer's 4-pitch walk to load the bases with an inning-ending GIDP on the first pitch. KC pitcher John Bale had thrown 6 pitches before Morneau's AB, and the only "strike" was the pitch Casilla attempted to bunt (and popped up). That is a take situation all the way - swinging early in the count helps the pitcher out.

The Twins grounded into 4 DPs overall. Mauer's GIDP in the 9th was a killer, especially since he hit the ball right on the screws. Carlos Gomez nearly knocked in the tying runs in the bottom of the 8th, but his liner to the gap in left-center was just within range of LF Mark Teahan.

So, for the second straight game, the Twins didn't get a lot of breaks at the Dome (though they didn't execute quite well enough to win in spite of the breaks). But for the second straight game, Cleveland pummeled the White Sox, and the Twins are still in first place. They still need one more loss from the Sox, whether against the Indians on Sunday, the Tigers on Monday, or the Twins on Tuesday. Cliff Lee will not be starting for Cleveland today, so that's one more bad break for the Twins. However, the Twins must win the game they will be playing today. If they do that, the only way they can be eliminated is to lose on the field to the Sox on Tuesday. If they must come up short, that's how I'd prefer to see it happen.

Happy When It Rains

Twins 12, Orioles 2
Twins 12, Orioles 6

I was upset when Friday night's game was rained out. First of all, with 10 straight games scheduled, it means a disruption to the rotation: Scott Baker either has to pitch on 3 days' rest vs. likely Cy Young Cliff Lee in the finale of the Cleveland series (a game that might be very important for the Twins), or the bullpen will have to do it. Neither option is that appealing. Second, playing 2 games in one day usually precludes using certain players in each game (Joe Mauer, for example), and would require the Twins to use more of their bench than they might ordinarily like (Adam Everett makes an appearance, for example). Then there's also the way double-headers tend to go - as well as you might play in the first game, it's hard to continue it into the second game.

Game one was certainly everything I could have hoped for. Scott Baker was solid once again, allowing just 1 ER on 4 H and 3 BB in 6 IP (why all the walks, all of a sudden?). The offense provided abundant run support, led by Denard Span's 2 HR and 4 RBI, Justin Morneau's 4 H and 2 RBI and Carlos Gomez' 2 H and 4 RBI. As the Twins were piling on in the 9th, I thought to myself, "Shouldn't you guys be saving that for the first inning of the second game?"

Not to worry. The Twins batted around in that inning as well, and Gomez had one more 2 RBI double in him as the Twins jumped out to a 6-0 lead. Matt Tolbert, invisible on the recent home stand despite swinging the bat very well in Toronto, kept it up with 2 triples, a BB, and 3 R. Morneau knocked in 2 more to tie Josh Hamilton for the AL RBI lead. Even Mike Redmond, necessarily catching instead of Mauer, had 2 RBI singles. The offense matched the output from the first game, eventually tallying 12 runs.

This was especially important because Glen Perkins has suddenly become the shaky piece of the rotation. Spotted a 6-0 lead before he took the mound, he gave 2 R right back. After the offense extended the lead to 10-2, he served up another 4 R to the O's in the 3rd. What should have been an easy win #13 for Perk turned into another disappointing ND. Over his last 4 starts, Perkins has thrown just 20.2 IP, allowing 17 ER on 32 H (including 7 HR) and 7 BB for an ugly 7.40 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. Needless to say, that's got to change immediately, particularly since his next 2 starts are against playoff contenders Tampa and Chicago.

Incredibly, the bullpen swooped in and gave the Twins 9 solid IP between the 2 games, allowing only 1 ER on 9 H and 4 BB. I hope they've saved a little bit of that for today. Because, as you all know, now that the Twins have blown the O's out in the first 2 games of this series, they're only going to score 2 R in the finale. That's been the pattern, anyway. I hope I'm wrong!

Michael Cuddyer was activated from the DL and pinch-hit late in the first game. I'd like to see him get as many ABs as possible over the last 2 weeks of the season - get him up to speed. If the Twins do wind up in the playoffs, my preference would be to see Cuddy in the starting lineup instead of Gomez.

Also of note: the 24-8 combined score of the 2 games raised the Twins' run differential for the season to +100. For the first time, that number exceeds the White Sox' total.

As inconvenient as the rainy weather was for the Twins this weekend, it's been even worse for the White Sox. They weren't able to make up their rainout yesterday, meaning they must now try to play 2 games on what should have been a get-away day for them, getting their 10-game road trip off to a late and weary start. And they'll now have to make up the 3rd game some other time, perhaps on the Monday after the season ends, potentially using up a starter they might have wanted for a 1-game playoff with the Twins. We'll see what kind of impact this weekend's wetness has on the remainder of the AL Central race.

Falling Fast

Twins 10, Tigers 2
Tigers 6, Twins 4
Tigers 7, Twins 5

Coming home does not seem to have solved the Twins' problems. The bullpen showed it is just as capable of throwing away an 8th inning lead in MN as on the road. After a brilliant August, Glen Perkins had his second straight shaky start in September. The Twins are just 1-5 in their first week of this month, and must turn things around immediately if they are to keep pace with the White Sox.

On a positive note, Francisco Liriano was awesome on Friday night. His slider was working, and he wasn't afraid to use it. The velocity of his pitches is still well short of his 2006 stuff, but he isn't too much less effective for it. Scott Baker was also terrific in his start. Ultimately, too many walks, but he got the Twins into the 8th inning with only 2 R allowed, and the bullpen should have been able to take it from there. Also, a good effort by the top of the order, as Denard Span reached in 7 of 15 plate appearances and scored 5 R, Alexi Casilla reached in 7 of 14 PAs and scored twice, and Joe Mauer reached in 7 of 14 PAs, scoring 3 times.

Unfortunately, Mauer could not come up with the big hit with runners on base. Justin Morneau drove in 8 R over the weekend, but failed to drive in any on Saturday, despite batting 3 times with runners on 3rd, including twice with the bases loaded. Dennys Reyes was the right guy to bring in against Curtis Granderson on Saturday, but he made perhaps his worst pitch of the season, hanging a 1-1 slider that Granderson blasted for the game-tying HR. Had Reyes gotten Granderson out, I might have liked to see Joe Nathan come on to face the heart of the Tigers' order. But, with the game tied already, might as well bring in Matt Guerrier, who had great lifetime numbers against all those guys. Naturally, he didn't retire any of them and continued his second-half implosion.

After Nick Punto reached with a marvelous AB leading off the 9th on Saturday, I couldn't believe that Gardy didn't pinch-hit for Carlos Gomez. He's been doing it with great frequency over the past couple of weeks, and he had the AAA batting champ on his bench, with the speedy Jason Pridie available to pinch-run and take over in CF should Randy Ruiz reach. Instead, Gardy left his most K-prone hitter in there, and Gomez promptly struck out on three pitches. That was tantamount to giving away 1 of the Twins' final 3 outs.

The Twins are 2 games behind where I'd hoped they'd be after 6 September games. That makes this upcoming series with KC a must-sweep. The Twins must also hope that the Blue Jays continue their inspired play vs. the White Sox. It's still not too much to ask that the Twins could be within 2 games of the White Sox when they face each other the last week of the season, but the margin for error has pretty much evaporated over the past 2 weeks. When they do face the White Sox, they certainly must play better than they just did against the Tigers.

Down and Up

Mariners 3, Twins 2
Twins 6, Mariners 5
A's 3, Twins 2
Twins 12, A's 2

I missed most of the last 4 games while burying myself in research on childhood vaccinations (my daughter will be 2 months old next week) and the Democratic National Convention (mostly boring, though I really liked Bill Clinton's speech). Looks like I missed out on a whole bunch of excruciating Twins baseball!

What's most frustrating is this: thanks to tonight's blowout, the Twins actually outscored their opponents 32-29 over the last week, but went just 2-5. Couldn't they have had just one of those 12 runs tonight moved to last night, when Joe Nathan could have pitched the 9th inning instead of the reeling Jesse Crain (who has been on the mound when the winning runs scored in 3 of the 5 losses this week)? How about moving one of them over to Monday, giving Joe Nathan enough cushion to overcome Adrian Beltre's leadoff double? If you've ever wondered how the Indians could be (until very recently) so far under .500 despite having a positive run differential, this past week is your answer. What a drag to have to endure that for 5 months instead of just one week!

Thankfully, Denard Span came up with a big throw to the plate on Wednesday afternoon, or this road trip would already be a total disaster. As it is, the Twins are still running uphill at 4-5. But the A's are a terrible offensive team, and the Twins' starting pitching has been solid (2.78 ERA in 58.1 IP on the trip so far), so it shouldn't take too many runs to get a couple more wins this weekend.

One of the reasons the Twins struggled to score runs earlier in the week was the disappearance of Joe Mauer. Coming into Friday's game he was just 6-28 on the road trip. He busted out with a career-high 5 hits, knocking in 4 runs while he was at it. He's got to be productive for the offense to work. The other key is Justin Morneau, and he appears to breaking out of the slump that bewitched him for most of the month. He's hitting .443 over the last 6 games, with at least one double in each.

One very encouraging sign: despite their troubles over the past week, the Twins remain just 0.5 games behind the White Sox, who have an identical 30-36 road record. That means that, for all the time away from home the Twins have to spend the rest of the season, the White Sox will match them game for game. They also have to play the Angels - baseball's winningest road team - at home. It's been a bad week on the road for the Twins, but it's not a disaster yet.

That Darned 8th Inning

Angels 5, Twins 3

You know how some old buildings superstitiously avoided putting in a 13th floor? The buttons on the elevator skipped from 12 to 14. Bad luck to do anything on the 13th floor.

Sometimes I wish the Twins could just skip over the 8th inning. You know, have Dennys Reyes come in with a 2-run lead and 2 RISP and get a couple of ground balls, getting out of the 7th with only 1 scoring. And let's go straight to Joe Nathan for the 9th vs. the heart of the Angels' order!

I can't really fault Gardy for any of the moves he made. Mark Teixeira had been tearing up the Twins' staff from the right side all weekend. His HR off Kevin Slowey in the 6th was like a rerun of his HR off Scott Baker on Thursday: decent pitch, low and outside, just muscled out to left of CF. Why not turn him around to the right side? Reyes tends to get ground balls - how bad could it be? Well, Teixeira once again came up with the perfect swing on a well-executed pitch, lining a fastball knee high on the outside corner down the opposite foul line for a leadoff double.

Should Joe Nathan have come in at this point? I can understand why one would want him to, with Vlad Guerrero coming up next as the go-ahead run. But recall that Guerrero and Torii Hunter were 2 of the 3 batters that Jesse Crain dispatched in a matter of 6 pitches to earn the win on Thursday night. He showed then that he was capable of getting those guys out with the game on the line. He nearly retired Vlad on a foul pop on the first pitch, but the ball dropped in the perfect spot (for the Angels) between Justin Morneau, Alexi Casilla and Denard Span for strike one. Crain's next pitch was supposed to be low and inside, but instead it was just low, and Vlad mashed it to CF.

There's something about the way Vlad hits the ball that makes Carlos Gomez, normally the most confident of fielders, suddenly look like Delmon Young. As with Saturday's 2-run "double," Gomez misjudged the ball, beginning to square up too early and winding up a step short when he had to leap. The ball hit the CF wall on the fly and took the worst possible carom, allowing Vlad to just make it into 3rd with an RBI triple.

Crain got a badly needed strikeout of Torii, and worked the count to 2-2 on Gary Matthews, Jr. The sequence went 3 fastballs up and in (the first a swinging strike, the second 2 balls) and one low and away for a called strike. Having shown him an outside strike, Mauer and Crain decided to go back to the location Matthews swung threw on the first pitch. This time he started his swing early enough and lined an RBI triple into the RF corner. He would score the 5th run on a SF.

3 XBH, only one of them coming on a mistake by the Twins' bullpen. Teixeira and Vlad are scary hitters to be facing while trying to protect a 1-run 8th inning lead, especially with Teixeira as hot as he's been. Would Nathan have done better? Or a healthy Pat Neshek? Maybe. But those hitters are definitely good enough to beat good pitchers every now and then.

Anyway, the late inning loss overshadowed another solid pitching performance from Kevin Slowey. He left a few too many pitches up, and I was very disappointed that he allowed the pinch-hit single to light-hitting catcher Mike Napoli that chased him from the game after just 91 pitches. But his overall line was 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 5 K. He definitely gave the Twins a chance to win. He's allowed just 5 ER total over his last 4 starts, averaging over 6 IP/start.

Justin Morneau finally had a big game vs. his nemesis. He went 3-4 with a double and a HR, driving in a run with each hit. The out he made was a liner that nearly carried over the head of RF Matthews. These were merely his 7th and 8th XBHs of August - just his 2nd HR. Hopefully the big day will carry over into a good last week vs. the Mariners and A's.

It's easy to be disappointed that the Twins failed to win the last 2 games - one because of poor defense and the other because of an inability once again to hold a late-inning lead. But coming into this series the hope was that they'd be able to split the 4-game set with the AL's winningest team, and they accomplished that. Now they need to focus on winning at least 4 of the next 7 against 2 of the teams that have struggled the most over the past few weeks. The test continues...

Under Control

Twins 4, Yankees 0
Yankees 9, Twins 6 (12 innings)
Twins 4, Yankees 2

Just like in KC, the Twins came just 1 run short of a series sweep. Winning series should be enough to keep them in the running with the White Sox, but a sweep here and there could help them pull away. Plus, it would have been nice to pay the Yanks back for the sweep they dealt the Twins a couple weeks ago. Still, with as tough a time as the Twins have had with the Yankees over the last several years, it's nice to see them at least hold their own at home: 4-3, and all three losses were by 1 run or in extra innings. That's progress...

Clearly, the Twins were facing the Yankees at the right time. All those bottom-of-the-order guys who were racking up hits in NY were back to their typical selves - Robinson Cano, Ivan Rodriguez, Richie Sexson, Wilson Betemit, Jose Molina and Melky Cabrera combined to go 6 for 36 with 5 BB out of the 6-9 slots. But give credit to Glen Perkins - he held the 1-5 hitters (Derek Jeter, A-Rod and Xavier Nady among them) to 3-17 by giving them an unpredictable mix of fastballs and changeups. Kevin Slowey held the top 5 of the order (including Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi) to 2 hits and 1 BB, using his typical pinpoint control to paint the corners and keep the ball away from the middle of their bats.

Nick Blackburn usually has very good control, but not so on Tuesday. It looked to me like one of those games in which the pitcher's stuff is breaking so much that he can't really locate it. The result was an unusually high number of strikeouts early on (5 in 4.2 IP), but also an unusually high number of walks (3). And the Yankees made him pay for it: 2 of the 3 men Blackburn walked came around to score. The 2-out double he allowed to Nady was a pretty good pitch - knee-high on the outside black - yet Nady pulled it with authority into the left-center field gap. Gotta give credit to the hitter on that one. I guess Carlos Gomez overthrew cutoff man Adam Everett, but Brian Buscher was right behind him to relay the ball to the plate. A good throw would have easily nailed Giambi, but Buscher's throw short-hopped Mike Redmond, allowing a crucial extra run to score.

The bullpen, needing to throw (as it turned out) 7.1 innings, did reasonably well until the 12th. Boof Bonser, as usual, allowed a run - he let the first 2 batters reach in the 6th and 7th innings (I'm amazed he got away with it in the 6th). Craig Breslow threw 1 pitch (I wonder if Gardy wished he'd kept him available once extra innings came along). When it came to the 12th inning, it was down to another inning of Matt Guerrier vs. the heart of the Yankees' lineup, or Brian Bass, so I can't blame Gardy for sticking with Guerrier. Still, that makes 12 runs allowed in Guerrier's last 8 appearances. I hope the rest of the pitching staff can step up and give him a break.

Great job in this series by Joe Nathan and Dennys Reyes. Nathan pitched in all 3 games, accumulating 3.1 IP, 2 saves, and allowing just a BB while striking out 6. Reyes struck out 4 of the 5 men he faced, and his wild pitch that allowed a run to score on Wednesday could have easily been blocked by Joe Mauer. I'm starting to feel good about Reyes pitching (to lefties) in tight spots late in games.

As Justin Morneau's average has dwindled from a peak of .325 down to .303, it's become apparent that he's having yet another slow August. His July was so preposterously awesome that this month had to come down somewhat, but right now his OPS is less than half of what it was last month. You can see it when he fouls off a pitch up on the inner half - the pitches he was drilling only a couple of weeks ago. And he's not the only one - Nick Punto, Joe Mauer and Brian Buscher are all way down from their July productivity.

I would have put Delmon Young in that category before this series, but he's broken out over the last 2 games, going 5 for 9 with a double, 2 HR and 6 RBI. That effort helped to lift his August line to .263/.333/.526 with 3 HR, 9 RBI and a 2/4 K/BB ratio. His dramatic, game-tying HR off Mariano Rivera helped turn a game that looked lost into one that the Twins had every opportunity to win. Can he carry the team until Morneau snaps out of it?

The Break

My wife switched to a dairy-free diet on Saturday, and the baby has been quiet at night ever since. I've been staying up late anyway, supervising the baby while watching DVDs on the computer, usually, and then sleeping in so late that it's afternoon before I get up from the breakfast table. Not a recipe for productivity - luckily, I'm not working for anybody right now. I followed the Twins and their representatives over the past few days, and these are my thoughts:

Tigers 4, Twins 2

You know it's probably not your day when the ump blows a call at first base, awarding the Tigers a baserunner and charging Brian Buscher with an error that neither deserved, and then the next guy up hits his first big-league HR. Still, the Twins were, once again, in the game all day, thanks to another marvelous outing from Nick Blackburn. 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 108 pitches. He's given the Twins 6+ IP and 2 or fewer ER in 5 of his last 6 starts. What a wonderfully reliable contribution to be getting from the #4 starter.

The big positive that came out of this game was that Brian Bass, in conjunction with his other outings last week, revealed himself to be the one who should be sent down to AAA. Glad we don't have to wonder about that anymore.

The Twins didn't quite finish off the Tigers, but it was a great series for them, and a solid road trip at 3-4. They are well positioned heading into the last 2.5 months.

Justin Morneau 5 (22), Josh Hamilton 3 (35)

I was glad to see Morneau willing to jump back on the horse and try the HR derby again. I know he was concerned that it had fouled up his stroke last summer, but this year, with his power numbers down, it may just be the shot in the arm he needs to start knocking them out at his 1st-half '07 rate. And it was good to see that he acquitted himself well, out-hitting every other competitor (with one notable exception) and earning a trip to the final.

Obviously, the preposterous power display put on by Josh Hamilton was unforgettable. I hope the Twins' pitchers will find a way to keep him in the yard this weekend (Livan is only a little younger than Hamilton's BP pitcher). But I have to give Morneau a ton of credit for putting that out of his mind when it was his turn to hit first, putting up 5 dingers in what would prove to be his low round (still better than his lone round last year). Not surprisingly, Hamilton had shot his wad in the first round, and couldn't match Morneau.

I was a bit chagrined to read some of the commentary afterwards, dismissing Morneau entirely, as though his 22 HR performance was an embarrassment. I wonder if a star from Boston or NY would have been written off so quickly. Anyway, Morneau accepted his victory with grace, and was a credit to the Twins on Monday night.

AL 4, NL 3 (15 innings)

Joe Mauer, Joe Nathan, and Morneau were a credit to the Twins on Tuesday night as well. Morneau, though not a starter, wound up with 5 PAs to Mauer's 2, and went 2-4, 2B, BB, 2 R, including the game-winner in the 15th. He was likely the runner-up to JD Drew for MVP of the game.

Mauer went 1-1 with a BB before being lifted for Jason Varitek. Was that move cermonial? Varitek clearly didn't belong on the team, and was replaced by Dioner Navarro of the Rays without even taking an AB. Navarro went 1-4 with a BB and 2 K, and made a costly throwing error on a steal attempt in the 8th that enabled the NL to score their 3rd run with a SF. Here's where it's too bad Mauer was the starter - had he been brought in off the bench, he would have had some opportunities to win the game late. Of course, with his accurate arm behind the plate, the game probably would have been over in regulation anyway.

For all the talk of whether Johnathan Papelbon or Mariano Rivera should get the 9th inning, the only AL pitcher who had an unblemished line on the night was Nathan. He retired the 3 men he faced on 8 pitches, including a strikeout. Francisco Rodriguez got one out with his 8 pitches, including a walk. What a great deal the Twins have with Nathan on the team for years to come!

Moves?

The Adrian Beltre rumors persist. He is a fine defensive 3B, with awesome splits vs. LHP, and, coming from Seattle, should be available for pennies on the dollar. He would be an upgrade from Brendan Harris without a doubt.

One of the names I saw as being potentially on the block that intrigued me was Jon Rauch of the Nationals. He began the season as a set-up man, but had to take over the closer role when Chad Cordero got hurt. He's put up some very strong numbers: 2.85 ERA, 43 K/7 BB, 4 HR in 47 IP. He could be an answer for the Twins in the 8th inning. He's under contract through 2010, so he wouldn't be just a rent-a-player, though the Twins would certainly have to give up something decent to get him. I haven't heard that the Twins are specifically interested in him, but he's the sort of player they're going to need down the stretch.

Back from the Brink

Twins 7, Tigers 6 (11 innings)

Baby's still not sleeping through the night (therefore, Daddy's not sleeping through the night), but that's not going to stop me from giving this game its due.

Remember this one. This afternoon's tilt was an epic, 11-inning siege. In the course of its nearly 4 hour duration, the Twins displayed most of their weaknesses and strengths, used most of the players on their bench and bullpen, and overcame a huge, late-inning deficit despite having one of their worst games hitting with RISP. Justin Morneau, Denard Span, Nick Punto and a beleaguered 'pen combined to turn a potentially dispiriting, 0-4 start to the last trip before the break into an inspiring, full-team win that should relax everybody for the remaining 3 games this weekend. We won't know for many weeks whether this game turns out to be a turning point, but it will at least give the Twins something to show for the efforts they've made on the road this week.

For most of the afternoon, it wasn't working. Kevin Slowey made no effort to pitch inside to the Tigers, so they leaned out over the plate and drove his pitches into the gaps. His line was hurt by a marginal walk to Ramon Santiago in the 3rd (a 3-2 pitch that looked better than many of the called strikes Kenny Rogers was getting) - Santiago came home on an opposite-field double by Curtis Granderson. The would-be second out of the 4th, a diving stop by Punto on a sharp grounder in the hole off the bat of Marcus Thames, was thrown away when Punto rushed his throw just a bit. The official scorer gave Thames credit for a hit, even though an on-target throw would have clearly gotten him by a step. Still, Slowey was not effective, and will hopefully return to working both sides of the plate after the break.

For the second day in a row, the Twins' starter was knocked out before the end of the 5th inning. Craig Breslow was first out of the 'pen, and worked 1.1 scoreless innings despite allowing 2 H and 2 BB, thanks to a CS. Jesse Crain and Dennys Reyes were next, combining for 3 IP, H, 3 K - just like they're supposed to do. Irritated bloggers finally got their wish when Joe Nathan was brought into a tie game in the 9th. He nearly blew it by walking the first 2 batters and throwing a WP, but he was able to strike out the last 2 batters he faced with the bases loaded to avoid the loss. Matt Guerrier followed with 2 IP, H, K - a nice recovery from his meltdown in Fenway on Tuesday night. Altogether, the Twins bullpen threw 7.1 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 5 BB, 7 K - too many walks, but a redeeming effort for a group that had been demolished in Boston.

Offensively, Justin Morneau, Nick Punto and Denard Span did everything they could to set the table. Unfortunately, they were just far enough apart in the batting order to not be able to work together. In between them were Carlos Gomez (0-4, K), Alexi Casilla (1-5), Mike Redmond (0-4), Craig Monroe (0-3, BB) and Mike Lamb (0-2), Delmon Young (0-6) and Brendan Harris (1-5, 2B). The unsustainable nature of the Twins remarkable success with RISP was on display, as the Twins began inning after inning with men at second or third, but failed to collect the big hit that could bring them back into the game. They ran themselves out of an inning, Punto getting thrown out at the plate and Span at 3rd trying to steal. Overall, the Twins went 1-15 with RISP.

And yet, they scored 7 runs. I've been saying that raising the team's OBP while continuing to fill the lineup with contact hitters would enable the Twins to manufacture some runs even when the base hits dry up. The Twins were pretty slow to get that going today (except for Gomez' RBI ground out in the 3rd), wasting Morneau's leadoff double in the 4th, for example. By the end of the game, though, the productive outs started to plate some runs. Casilla hit a SF with runners at the corners in the 7th. Morneau led off the 8th with another double (ohhhhh so close to being a HR), and this time Monroe and Young did their jobs, hitting ground balls behind him to bring in the 4th run.

Then came the 9th, when Punto and Span, improbably, began yet another inning by both reaching. RF Matt Joyce gave the Twins the break they needed when he overran Span's single, allowing Punto to score and Span to reach third. Then Gardy, whose lineup choices I felt were going to be responsible for the Twins losing the game, made a series of terrific moves. He pinch-hit Joe Mauer for Gomez, and Mauer delivered the game-tying SF. He had Kubel hit for Redmond, and he delivered a single. After Morneau walked, Gardy sent Lamb in to pinch-hit for Monroe, and only a sterling defensive play from 2B Placido Polanco prevented the Twins from taking the lead right there. (Say what you want about the production of Mike Lamb - perhaps his days with the Twins are numbered - he seems to hit into a lot of highlight defensive plays.)

Punto and Span reached again with 2 out in the 10th, but Span stole second when they stopped holding him on, opening up first base and taking the bat out of Joe Mauer's hands. Casilla grounded out to end the threat. That left it for Justin Morneau to cap his career day, lining an 0-1 pitch over the wall in RF for his 14th HR and the win.

There was so much to process about this game, but I think the important thing is this: the 2008 Twins can find a way to win, even on the road, even when they aren't at their best. There is a mental/psychological component to baseball that can enhance or diminish a player's performance on the field - in most cases, the Twins are being enhanced. They may not be the best team in the league, they may not be true contenders, but they're ahead of where we thought they'd be this year, and they're definitely a team a fan can be proud of.

The SfC All-Stars

Since I've been trapped in this bed for the past 2 weeks recovering from knee surgery, I took advantage of my eligibility to vote 25 times per email address for the All-Star game. My family let me vote for them, too. Altogether, I think I cast 175 votes. I wait until June is at least half over, in order to give people plenty of time to emerge as deserving a spot. I don't like that, in the current system, voting begins just over a month into the season. Anybody who casts votes at that point is either basing them on last year, reputation, or a really small sample size. I'd like it better if the voting were limited to the 3-4 weeks right before the penultimate weekend.

I'd also prefer to see more of a "Dancing with the Stars" model of voting, where the starters are determined by 50% the fan vote, and 50% a vote by the writers or players. With this popularity contest model, the starting lineup risks being disproportionately populated by members of the large-market teams, whether they are the best at their position or not. Pat Burrell, Matt Holiday and Ryan Ludwick are all having measurably better seasons than the current NL leaders in OF votes (Alfonso Soriano isn't even qualified, for crying out loud). The various teams would be better represented, and the talent level in the starting lineups would be higher if some combination of experts could over-rule the fans.

When deciding who to vote for, I usually sort each position by OPS to get a rough ranking, then check HR, RBI, SB and K/BB. If that doesn't decide it, I look at the defensive stats. If I still need a tie-breaker, I give it to the guy from a so-far forsaken team. Here are my choices for this year:

AL

1B - Justin Morneau, Twins - Kevin Youkilis is actually a fine choice, but I give the edge to Morneau because he's played more games, has a better K/BB ratio, and he's from my home team. (Feel free to over-rule me, experts!) Jason Giambi is also a good choice.

2B - Ian Kinsler, Rangers - This is going to be the great injustice of this year's voting, unless Kinsler can make up a couple hundred thousand votes over the final 3 days. In about the same number of ABs, Kinsler has out-produced Dustin Pedroia in H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, R, SB (20/21!), BB, BA, OBP, SLG. It's not even close. And Brian Roberts should be second.

SS - Michael Young, Rangers - Young and Derek Jeter are essentially tied for OPS, but Young has the edge in HR, RBI, SB% and E. Plus, I'm kinda burned out on Jeter.

3B - Alex Rodriguez, Yankees - A-Rod has a healthy lead on every other regular 3B in most offensive categories. Mike Lowell or Joe Crede should be the reserves.

C - Joe Mauer, Twins - Where Morneau was a bit of a home-town bias, Mauer is, objectively, the best catcher in the AL this season. Jason Varitek isn't even qualified. AJ Pierzynski should be the backup.

OF - Josh Hamilton, Rangers - He's been leading the league in HR and RBI all season.
Milton Bradley, Rangers - He's been leading the league in OPS and BA for much of the season.
Grady Sizemore, Indians - The most tools of any OF in AL right now: 19 HR and 19 SB.
Carlos Quentin was not on the ballot! He must be a backup, along with Jermaine Dye and JD Drew (I couldn't vote for Drew - I've just never liked him). I'm as bored with Manny Ramirez as I am with Jeter, but he's not undeserving. Ichiro has stolen a ton of bases and plays good D, but I don't think he's having an All-Star caliber year right now.

DH - I cast about half my votes for Hideki Matsui before he went on the DL. With Ortiz also on the DL, Aubrey Huff of Baltimore appears to be the next in line. But he wasn't so much better that I couldn't spend the last half of my votes on Jason Kubel. Since he's mainly been a DH for Texas this season, this is where they should put Bradley in the starting lineup.

NL

1B - Lance Berkman, Astros - This was a pretty easy one for me. Albert Pujols has been catching up to him, but you gotta give props to a veteran who's contending for the triple crown.

2B - Chase Utley, Phillies - Dan Uggla actually got a few of my votes, but Utley's edge in RBI, SB and ZR put him over the top for me. These two guys are so close in production, it's unbelievable that Uggla is not only being blown away, he's not even in second place! Mark DeRosa is having a fine year with the Cubs, but he shouldn't make the team ahead of Uggla.

SS - Hanley Ramirez, Marlins - As with Grady Sizemore, there's no other SS in the NL that can match Ramirez' tools: 18 HR, 20 SB. Jose Reyes could be the reserve, although it will probably go to Christian Guzman, just to get a Nats player on the team.

3B - Chipper Jones, Braves - Again, you've got to give it to the veteran who's flirting with .400. I guess I'd have to give the bench spot to David Wright, who has more HR, RBI and SB than Aramis Ramirez.

C - Brian McCann, Braves - Geovanni Soto is going to win this spot, but McCann edges him in BA, SLG, and has a wildly better K/BB rate. Russell Martin of the Dodgers should get some consideration as a backup.

OF - Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals - He's had an absolute breakout year.
Pat Burrell, Phillies - All the production of Adam Dunn, but with 20 fewer K.
Nate McClouth, Pirates - Everybody in the Pirates' OF is having an awesome year, but McClouth stands out to me because he's played the most games and has the most steals. I empathize with the good people of Pittsburgh, who must think no one else in the country has noticed these guys. I have! For reserves, I'd like to see Matt Holliday, Ryan Braun and Dunn.

Each team must send at least one representative to the All-Star game. Here are some suggestions for worthy additions from teams I haven't mentioned yet.

A's: Justin Duchscherer
Angels: Frankie Rodriguez
Royals: Joakim Soria
Tigers: Placido Polanco or Carlos Guillen
Blue Jays: Shaun Marcum
Rays: James Shields or BJ Upton
Giants: Tim Lincecum
D-Backs: Brandon Webb
Padres: Jake Peavy

I hope the wise voting public provides a team that makes me want to watch the game!

One Bad Inning

Rangers 6, Twins 5 (10 innings)

Tough loss last night, though I'm not really that upset about it. The season is young, yet the Twins have already managed to lose every type of close game:

Great pitching, no offense (1-0 to the Angels). These really upset me.

Terrible pitching, tons of offense (11-9 to the Tigers). These upset me almost as much.

Decent pitching, decent offense (last night). Ho hum.

The Twins put together 2 early rallies, each started by bunt singles from Carlos Gomez. My goodness, he's a terror when he actually puts those in play. Joe Mauer drew walks in each case, and Justing Morneau finished them off with RBI hits. His first was a terrific 2-strike liner past the shortstop on a curveball down and away - great piece of hitting. The second was a first pitch laser shot over the right-field wall for a grand slam.

That was about it for the night. Brendan Harris was pitched extremely tough - his 3 K all came on filthy pitches. Jason Kubel had three well-hit shots to the outfield that were tracked down. Punto lined into a double play the one time in four ABs he hit the ball hard.

On the pitching side, Blackburn looked pretty good, once again. As fortunate as he was to have everything hit right at somebody for a DP in his last start, he was unlucky last night to have them find holes. The pitches to Hamilton and Blalock in the 3rd inning were up - everything else was just out of the reach of the fielders. Botts just went down and got the curveball he lined off the RF wall to start the DP. (Let that be a lesson to everyone - don't run on Cuddyer, even the day after he comes back from a finger injury.) A pitcher like Blackburn, who throws strikes and invites contact, is going to run into a bad inning like that every now and then. Nothing to be concerned about.

The bullpen did just fine, allowing 1 R in 3.2 innings. Rincon wasn't helped by the situation he was in in the 10th: the OF was playing a little shallower than they would have been to try and give themselves a better shot at getting the winning run at the plate.

The Rangers are a pretty good hitting team, and they'd been shut down the day before, so a breakout like they had wasn't unexpected. Tonight, they'll be sending our old friend Sidney Ponson out there. If the Twins lose to him, I think I will be upset.

Pitching and Defense

Twins 3, Indians 0

Twins 2, Indians 1 (10 innings)

The Indians were the single biggest reason the Twins didn't make it to the happy side of .500 in 2007. They beat the Twins in 14 of 18 meetings, including every time Santana faced them. While their pitching staff stymied the hitters, they always managed to get the big hit just when they needed it, or the Twins would give them an extra out or base with a defensive miscue.

Not so much this weekend.

Although the Tribe's only run on Sunday was a direct result of an unturned double play (high relay throw from Brendan Harris), the Twins otherwise made every play they were supposed to make, and several they weren't. Infielders and outfielders were diving around all over the field, most notably when Carlos Gomez saved the game with his sprawling catch in the 9th. The defense did turn 5 DPs, four in support of Nick Blackburn on Saturday. Delmon Young picked up his 3rd OF assist to preserve the shutout. Neither team committed an error in the series.

Blackburn's performance was a clinic in minimizing damage. Though he allowed a baserunner in just about every inning, he didn't hurt himself with walks, and his sinker kept setting up DPs. The very definition of "scattering" 8 hits in 7.2 innings. Had the Twins been able to pad the lead a bit, I thought he might get the chance to match Carlos Silva's 11-hit, 6 DP shutout vs. the Angels a few years ago.

Scott Baker was arguably even more effective, allowing just 5 hits and one walk in 7 innings. The missed DP chance extended the second inning by 3 batters and 13 pitches, so had it been turned, Baker might well have completed 8 shutout innings. His 8 Ks were 1 short of his career high.

The bullpen was nearly flawless as well, allowing only 3 baserunners in 4.1 innings. It was particularly heartening to see Neshek come in with a runner on in the 9th and slam the door (thanks, again, to the athletic prowess of Gomez), something he was unable to do in Chicago and Detroit.

Last weekend, the Twins took 2 of 3 from KC despite scoring just 8 runs in the series. Hard to top, but they did it this weekend, taking 2 of 3 from the Tribe despite scoring just 5 runs in the 3 games.

Three weeks into the season, the Twins are near the bottom of the AL in runs (13th), OBP (14th) and SLG (12th), yet are tied for second place in the division, just 2.5 games behind the White Sox. This is thanks to a pitching staff that ranks very highly in ERA (3rd), fewest walks allowed (1st), and WHIP (1st), and a defense which is among the leaders in throwing out baserunners (1st in caught stealing %, tied for 1st in OF assists). Thank goodness for pitching and defense, otherwise the Twins would be in big trouble.

Justin Time

Twins 6, Royals 4
Royals 3, Twins 1

Great to see the Justin Morneau who signed the big contract finally appear in the lineup. His excellent offensive weekend paved the way to a series win. I got to see most of both games on TV (Sunday in HD - ooooooooh), and noticed some interesting things:

Livan Hernandez is doing his typical April thing. He only gave up a couple of hard-hit balls on Saturday - one when he apparently lost his concentration after a balk (the next pitch was smoked to the wall for a triple). I can't believe he physically tires out as the season goes along, so maybe his problem is mental. Anyway, two 7-inning quality starts, just what he's supposed to do. Should be worth something in a trade later on.

Matt Guerrier needs to stop throwing so many balls. He got away with it again, pitching around a cheap 2-out infield hit and error by Everett. Everett needs to step it up in the infield. The infield hit was a slow chopper up the middle. As he converged on the ball, running toward first base, Tolbert cut in front of him and threw across his body while running toward third base. The shortstop has an easier, shorter throw there, perhaps the difference between safe by half a step and out by half a step. Everett has to call Tolbert off - not only is he captain of the infield, he's played 7 years in the bigs - Tolbert hasn't even played seven games.

Mauer, Morneau and Kubel all swung the bats well this weekend. No surprise there. The surprise is how well Tolbert is swinging. Thanks to his hot start and Harris' flu, Tolbert has nearly as many plate appearances as Everett and Harris. Notice who doesn't have a lot of PAs? Nick Punto, 1 for 3 on the week. All of you who thought Gardy would insist on playing Punto over better hitters owe the skipper an apology.

Boof was solid again on Sunday. He pitched better than Tomko - the reason he gave up more runs is he gave up hits early in the inning, while Tomko was generally able to retire the leadoff hitter.

Which brings us to Carlos Gomez. How interesting to have him and Span hitting back-to-back again. In Gomez' first AB last Monday, he pulled a grounder just fair over third base for a double. In Span's first AB Sunday, he pulled a grounder just foul over first base. Couldn't have been more than an inch foul. Span worked the count full before being retired when Tomko leaped up to stop his bouncer up the middle. He drew a full-count walk in his second AB, then was retired on a sliding stop by the second baseman on an 0-2 swing.

Gomez, meanwhile, on his only base hit of the weekend, a leadoff slicing single to very short right field in the third, got himself thrown out trying to stretch it to a double. Though right fielder Guillen had a long way to run for the ball, he has an excellent throwing arm, and Gomez was easily nailed at second. Two disturbing things about this:

1: do you not know how good the RFs arm is?
2: you're Carlos Gomez - you're going to steal second by the third pitch of the next AB anyway.

He just consistently outruns his brain. Plus, he's struck out 8 times in his first 29 PAs, walking just once. Four of those strikeouts have come on 3 pitches. Span saw 15 pitches in his 3 PAs Sunday. I'll keep tabs on them throughout Cuddy's DL stay.

Lots of good news on the pitching front this home stand. With the exception of the injured Kevin Slowey, each starter pitched at least 6 innings. Even if you throw Slowey in there, the average start this week was 6.1 IP, 3.89 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 2 HR, 1 BB(!), 21 K. That ought to do a lot better than 3-4. But, when the offense averages 2.7 run/game, 3.89 from the starters can be too much to overcome. Too many DPs, too many quick ABs, not enough walks, not enough homers. I'm most concerned about Mr. Lamb after this weekend - he looked awful yesterday, particularly when he dove at a 2-0 changeup with a RISP in the 2nd.

This week the Twins start their road schedule in Chicago. Javier Vazquez has given the Twins trouble in the past, but if Blackburn can back up his performance from last Wednesday, the Twins should be in the game. After an off-day Tuesday, it'll be Baker vs. LHP John Danks, followed by a historic Hernandez/Contreras matchup in the finale. Should be quite a competition to see who can throw the slowest pitch. I hope Gardy will be ready to turn loose the running game on Pierzynski - should be able to steal 3-4 bases/game.

Not a great start to the season, true. But better than the Tigers!