Yesterday, the Twins announced that they had come to terms with reliever Matt Guerrier on a 1-year, $1.475 million contract for 2009, the mid-point between their respective arbitration figures. Must be nice to get a 50% raise following your worst-ever year on the job. However, the good things in Guerrier's recent past suggest that he'll be well worth the investment.
The main theory behind why Guerrier was suddenly so bad at the end of last season has to with his overuse after Pat Neshek was hurt in early May. There is some truth in that, but I would argue that Guerrier's overuse had as much to do with him as his manager, and that there was nothing sudden about his poor performance in August.
First off, the usage. While Guerrier was called upon to pitch in numerous high-leverage situations last year, it wasn't the first time he'd been asked to do that. In 2007, he set career highs in appearances (73) and IP (88.0), along with his best ever K/9 and BB/9. That strong performance earned him a promotion from long-relief to the 7th inning role by mid-season. After Neshek's innings were limited over the final 2 months of that season, Guerrier assumed the role of primary setup man. While his numbers over those last 2 months declined as well - he allowed 6 of his 9 HR and 11 of his 23 ER in August and September - the decline was back toward his career norms, with a 3.58 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. That still left him with a season ERA of 2.35 and WHIP of 1.05, thanks to the improved K/BB numbers and an abnormally low .271 BABIP. That was not likely to be repeated in 2008, and it sure wasn't.
Guerrier was typically used 12-13 times a month in 2007, and that trend continued in 2008 - the only time he exceeded that was with the 15 appearances he made in May, but 3 of those were only to face 1 batter - something he did only once at any other time in the season. So, while he was certainly busy in 2008 (among the top 20 relievers in MLB in G and IP), he wasn't much more so than he was in 2007 when he was superb. In fact, the 344 batters Guerrier faced in 2008 were 7 fewer than he faced the previous year.
By the beginning of August last year, just before things went to crap for him, Guerrier had made 51 appearances (4 more than 2007) but had thrown 57.1 IP (4 fewer than 2007). The trouble was inefficiency: he needed 924 pitches to complete those 57.1 IP, where he'd only needed 854 pitches to get through his first 61.1 IP in 2007. Over the course of the season, Guerrier threw about 2 more pitches per inning than he had in 2005 & 2006, and 2.6 more pitches per inning than in his stellar 2007. And those 2 extra pitches were almost always balls.
I looked back over my archives to see if I could find any references to support my impression that Guerrier had been wild from the get-go last year. Sure enough, from the first week of the season I was mentioning that he needed to start throwing more strikes or he was going to get hurt. His career K/BB ratio had been a little better than 2/1 entering the season, but other than July, he never came close to that. 9 of his BB were intentional, but a lot of those were the result of trouble he'd gotten himself into. Throw in the inevitable rise in BABIP (up to .331) and you've got yourself a ton of baserunners.
So what happened in the last 2 months? Well, in 2007, Guerrier gave up 6 of his 9 HR, 11 of his 23 ER and 6 of his 21 BB after he'd reached the 900 pitch mark for the season. Last year he arrived at 900 pitches on July 29, and from there his ERA ballooned from 3.23 to its final mark of 5.19. 7 of his 12 HR and 24 of his 44 ER allowed came after that point, and his K/BB ratio was 15/14. Surely, there was some physical fatigue. There was probably also some mental fatigue from having to constantly pitch from behind in the count to escape jams in high-pressure situations. And I imagine scouting reports were adjusted, preparing opposing hitters to take a few pitches and work the count rather than try to hit the first strike they saw. Eventually, Guerrier's spiral must have fed itself: I knew he was going to get torched every time he went out there, and he probably knew it, too.
Tired arm, tired mind, patient hitters, timid pitching. A perfect storm of negative factors - some of his own making - that led to disastrous results. The Twins went 6-19 in games in which Guerrier allowed a run, including 3-10 over the final 2 months of the season. Needless to say, had he been the pitcher he was from 2005-2007, the Twins would have won the division.
Luckily, things are apt to be much better for Guerrier in 2009. First of all, his BABIP will probably swing back towards where it was after 2006 (.314). That will be especially likely if he regains the strike-throwing form he had prior to 2008 - something which is very much within his control. And the Twins' professed interest in acquiring setup help this offseason implies that Guerrier is no longer expected to fill that role. That should enable him to be used less often and in lower-pressure situations. Given all that, there's reason to expect that Guerrier will once again be a reliable member of the bullpen in 2009.
Showing posts with label Matt Guerrier. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Matt Guerrier. Show all posts
Friday, February 6, 2009
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Fortune Frowns on the Twins
Royals 4, Twins 2
Magic Number: 2
It appears that the baseball gods want to see this one-game playoff next week. Things may yet turn out all right, but it's excruciating to see the bounces going against my team at a time when they have to win.
The first bounce came in the 6th inning. Boof Bonser relieved Glen Perkins, and gave up 4 H without retiring a batter. In fairness to Boof, only one of the hits was a solid line drive - the others were 2 choppers and a flare. The second chopper was the first place fate turned on the Twins. It was just over and to the right of the mound. If Boof fields it cleanly, he starts a DP. If he doesn't touch it at all, Alexi Casilla fields it and starts a DP. Instead, Boof deflected it into short RF, allowing the tying run to score.
The second bounce came the next inning. Matt Guerrier was called on to rescue Boof, which he managed to do in spite of falling behind 2-0 on each hitter he faced with the bases loaded. One sent a ball over the bag at third that Brendan Harris was able to turn into a force at the plate, the other hit a liner to Justin Morneau at first. Gardy left Guerrier out there to start the 7th, and he promptly fell behind the first 2 hitters and surrendered singles to each. Jesse Crain was brough in to rescue Guerrier. Bad bounce #2 happened on a slider in the dirt that struck out Jose Guillen - it skipped away from Joe Mauer, allowing the runners to advance to 2nd and 3rd and prompting the infielders to play in. The next hitter lofted a broken bat blooper that would have easily been caught by Morneau at his normal position. Instead, it was just far enough out of reach to tick off his glove and allow the go-ahead runs to score.
Morneau is pressing at the plate, and it's hurting the team. He went 0-3 with RISP. This was most egregious when he followed Joe Mauer's 4-pitch walk to load the bases with an inning-ending GIDP on the first pitch. KC pitcher John Bale had thrown 6 pitches before Morneau's AB, and the only "strike" was the pitch Casilla attempted to bunt (and popped up). That is a take situation all the way - swinging early in the count helps the pitcher out.
The Twins grounded into 4 DPs overall. Mauer's GIDP in the 9th was a killer, especially since he hit the ball right on the screws. Carlos Gomez nearly knocked in the tying runs in the bottom of the 8th, but his liner to the gap in left-center was just within range of LF Mark Teahan.
So, for the second straight game, the Twins didn't get a lot of breaks at the Dome (though they didn't execute quite well enough to win in spite of the breaks). But for the second straight game, Cleveland pummeled the White Sox, and the Twins are still in first place. They still need one more loss from the Sox, whether against the Indians on Sunday, the Tigers on Monday, or the Twins on Tuesday. Cliff Lee will not be starting for Cleveland today, so that's one more bad break for the Twins. However, the Twins must win the game they will be playing today. If they do that, the only way they can be eliminated is to lose on the field to the Sox on Tuesday. If they must come up short, that's how I'd prefer to see it happen.
Magic Number: 2
It appears that the baseball gods want to see this one-game playoff next week. Things may yet turn out all right, but it's excruciating to see the bounces going against my team at a time when they have to win.
The first bounce came in the 6th inning. Boof Bonser relieved Glen Perkins, and gave up 4 H without retiring a batter. In fairness to Boof, only one of the hits was a solid line drive - the others were 2 choppers and a flare. The second chopper was the first place fate turned on the Twins. It was just over and to the right of the mound. If Boof fields it cleanly, he starts a DP. If he doesn't touch it at all, Alexi Casilla fields it and starts a DP. Instead, Boof deflected it into short RF, allowing the tying run to score.
The second bounce came the next inning. Matt Guerrier was called on to rescue Boof, which he managed to do in spite of falling behind 2-0 on each hitter he faced with the bases loaded. One sent a ball over the bag at third that Brendan Harris was able to turn into a force at the plate, the other hit a liner to Justin Morneau at first. Gardy left Guerrier out there to start the 7th, and he promptly fell behind the first 2 hitters and surrendered singles to each. Jesse Crain was brough in to rescue Guerrier. Bad bounce #2 happened on a slider in the dirt that struck out Jose Guillen - it skipped away from Joe Mauer, allowing the runners to advance to 2nd and 3rd and prompting the infielders to play in. The next hitter lofted a broken bat blooper that would have easily been caught by Morneau at his normal position. Instead, it was just far enough out of reach to tick off his glove and allow the go-ahead runs to score.
Morneau is pressing at the plate, and it's hurting the team. He went 0-3 with RISP. This was most egregious when he followed Joe Mauer's 4-pitch walk to load the bases with an inning-ending GIDP on the first pitch. KC pitcher John Bale had thrown 6 pitches before Morneau's AB, and the only "strike" was the pitch Casilla attempted to bunt (and popped up). That is a take situation all the way - swinging early in the count helps the pitcher out.
The Twins grounded into 4 DPs overall. Mauer's GIDP in the 9th was a killer, especially since he hit the ball right on the screws. Carlos Gomez nearly knocked in the tying runs in the bottom of the 8th, but his liner to the gap in left-center was just within range of LF Mark Teahan.
So, for the second straight game, the Twins didn't get a lot of breaks at the Dome (though they didn't execute quite well enough to win in spite of the breaks). But for the second straight game, Cleveland pummeled the White Sox, and the Twins are still in first place. They still need one more loss from the Sox, whether against the Indians on Sunday, the Tigers on Monday, or the Twins on Tuesday. Cliff Lee will not be starting for Cleveland today, so that's one more bad break for the Twins. However, the Twins must win the game they will be playing today. If they do that, the only way they can be eliminated is to lose on the field to the Sox on Tuesday. If they must come up short, that's how I'd prefer to see it happen.
Friday, September 12, 2008
Finish It!
Twins 7, Royals 2
Twins 7, Royals 1
Royals 3, Twins 2 (10 innings)
Though the Twins managed to win their first series since before their road marathon began 3 weeks ago, they continued the pattern that has caused them to miss countless opportunities to overtake the White Sox in the standings. Just like in the Oakland and Seattle series, the Twins got a strong performance from their starter in every game, but the offense only showed up part of the time. This makes 11 losses in the last 17 games; in 7 of those games, they have scored 3 or fewer runs, and they've lost all 7. In 5 series vs. the Royals, the Twins have won the 1st 2 games each time, but are 1-4 in the finales. Let's hope they have another chance to sweep the series at the end of the season.
The Royals are a terrible offensive team, so you'd expect the Twins' pitching to do well against them. Nick Blackburn set the tone by going 7 IP and allowing just 2 ER on 5 H and 1 BB. Kevin Slowey topped that, going 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H and 1 BB. Then Francisco Liriano finished the set with 8 IP, 2 ER on 6 H and 0 BB with 6 K. The three starters combined for 22 IP, 5 ER, 15 H and 2 BB for a 2.06 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. While the bullpen allowed just 1 R in 6 IP for a 1.50 ERA, they gave up 6 H and 1 BB for a 1.17 WHIP - still good, but noticeably worse than the starters. And that 1 R they allowed resulted in a loss.
It's no startling revelation to say that the bullpen is much weaker than the starters - that's been apparent for about 2 months now. So it was particularly frustrating for me to see my fantasy come to life - 8 IP from the starter hands the ball straight to Joe Nathan - and yet have the Twins find a way to lose anyway. I now quake in fear every time Matt Guerrier takes the mound - since June 30th, he's allowed 24 ER in 28 IP on 37 H and 10 BB (7.71 ERA, 1.68 WHIP), including 6 HR. Those numbers are reminiscent of Livan Hernandez. Guerrier has accumulated 6 losses for the Twins in that time. Over the same period, Jesse Crain has allowed 15 ER in 25 IP on 27 H and 8 BB (5.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP), including 2 HR. He's lost 2 games. Though Crain's numbers aren't great, it seems that it would be prudent to give him the ball before Guerrier.
Do Carlos Gomez' excellent defense and occasional productive ABs really make up for all the mistakes he makes and all the ABs he throws away? Would the Twins be better off with Denard Span in CF, Jason Kubel in RF and a better hitter than Gomez (say, Randy Ruiz) at DH? I doubt we'll find out.
Coming into this home stand, the Twins had a .667 winning percentage at home, and were facing two divisional opponents with losing records that the Twins had beaten up all year, so going 3-3 is definitely not good enough. However, thanks to some inspired play by the Blue Jays, the White Sox remain just a step ahead of the Twins. Which Central Division contender will get it together first?
Twins 7, Royals 1
Royals 3, Twins 2 (10 innings)
Though the Twins managed to win their first series since before their road marathon began 3 weeks ago, they continued the pattern that has caused them to miss countless opportunities to overtake the White Sox in the standings. Just like in the Oakland and Seattle series, the Twins got a strong performance from their starter in every game, but the offense only showed up part of the time. This makes 11 losses in the last 17 games; in 7 of those games, they have scored 3 or fewer runs, and they've lost all 7. In 5 series vs. the Royals, the Twins have won the 1st 2 games each time, but are 1-4 in the finales. Let's hope they have another chance to sweep the series at the end of the season.
The Royals are a terrible offensive team, so you'd expect the Twins' pitching to do well against them. Nick Blackburn set the tone by going 7 IP and allowing just 2 ER on 5 H and 1 BB. Kevin Slowey topped that, going 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H and 1 BB. Then Francisco Liriano finished the set with 8 IP, 2 ER on 6 H and 0 BB with 6 K. The three starters combined for 22 IP, 5 ER, 15 H and 2 BB for a 2.06 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. While the bullpen allowed just 1 R in 6 IP for a 1.50 ERA, they gave up 6 H and 1 BB for a 1.17 WHIP - still good, but noticeably worse than the starters. And that 1 R they allowed resulted in a loss.
It's no startling revelation to say that the bullpen is much weaker than the starters - that's been apparent for about 2 months now. So it was particularly frustrating for me to see my fantasy come to life - 8 IP from the starter hands the ball straight to Joe Nathan - and yet have the Twins find a way to lose anyway. I now quake in fear every time Matt Guerrier takes the mound - since June 30th, he's allowed 24 ER in 28 IP on 37 H and 10 BB (7.71 ERA, 1.68 WHIP), including 6 HR. Those numbers are reminiscent of Livan Hernandez. Guerrier has accumulated 6 losses for the Twins in that time. Over the same period, Jesse Crain has allowed 15 ER in 25 IP on 27 H and 8 BB (5.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP), including 2 HR. He's lost 2 games. Though Crain's numbers aren't great, it seems that it would be prudent to give him the ball before Guerrier.
Do Carlos Gomez' excellent defense and occasional productive ABs really make up for all the mistakes he makes and all the ABs he throws away? Would the Twins be better off with Denard Span in CF, Jason Kubel in RF and a better hitter than Gomez (say, Randy Ruiz) at DH? I doubt we'll find out.
Coming into this home stand, the Twins had a .667 winning percentage at home, and were facing two divisional opponents with losing records that the Twins had beaten up all year, so going 3-3 is definitely not good enough. However, thanks to some inspired play by the Blue Jays, the White Sox remain just a step ahead of the Twins. Which Central Division contender will get it together first?
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Did We Win?
Twins 9, Mariners 3
Twins 7, Mariners 6
Twins 11, Mariners 8
First, the good news:
The Twins completed a home sweep of the AL's worst team, improving to 17-11 since the All-Star Break, and 12-4 at home. They need to rack up all the home wins they can right now, and so far they're 5-1 on the home stand with Oakland about to come stumbling in to town. Must win that series as well.
The offense scored 7 or more runs on 12 or more hits, including a HR, in each game. Altogether there were 27 runs, 40 hits, 11 doubles, 3 HR and 17 BB against just 7 K. That is a monumentally awesome performance, and they needed every bit of it.
Jason Kubel led the onslaught by going 8-10 with 2 doubles, a HR and 6 RBI. His pinch-hit RBI single in the 8th inning on Saturday night brought the Twins back to even, setting up the winning rally in the 9th. He was so hot Gardy even gave him a start against a LHP on Sunday - and he went 2-2 off the guy!
The series also brought some signs of life to some of the folks in the lineup who'd been slumping recently. Nick Punto went 6-14 with 3 doubles and 2 BB to raise his August OPS up to .675. Justin Morneau went 4-9 with a double, HR and 4 BB to raise his August OPS to .676. You might say, "Those OPS totals aren't that impressive." Yeah, well, you should have seen them three days ago!
Francisco Liriano had his best start of the year so far. He finished 7 innings, allowing 0 ER on just 2 H and 2 BB with 5 K. So far, he hasn't fallen off too far from the sort of performances he was putting up in AAA.
Scott Baker and Glen Perkins were great, too. For 5 innings.
And now, the bad news:
Baseball games last 9 innings, and from the 6th inning on, the Twins allowed 15 of the 17 runs the Mariners got in the series - 14 just on Saturday and Sunday. After cruising through 5 IP, both Baker and Perkins hit the wall hard in the 6th. Baker allowed 3 H and a BB to the first 5 batters of the inning before being replaced by Jesse Crain. Perkins managed to finish the 6th, but not before allowing 3 HR. His location drifted from the corners to the center of the plate, and even the Mariners know what to do with that.
So, bring in the bullpen (gulp!). Crain struck out the first man he faced, then gave up a walk and double to allow the 4th run of the inning. Craig Breslow came in with 2 men in scoring position and allowed the only hit of his otherwise solid relief stint, letting 2 more runs come in. Suddenly, in one trip through the order, a 5-0 lead had turned into a 6-5 deficit.
On Sunday, Boof Bonser was given a 10-4 lead to start the 7th inning. As is all too common with him, he allowed the first 2 batters to reach, and they came around to score, cutting the 6-run lead to 4. After 3 days off to "clear his head," Matt Guerrier was brought in to pitch the 8th. He got one out, but then BB, double, BB and he was off to the showers leaving a mess for Dennys Reyes. I won't criticize Reyes for allowing 2 infield hits (one a bunt single from Ichiro) - at least he didn't throw any wild pitches. Joe Nathan had to come in with the bases loaded and 2 out to finish the 8th (and he had an unusually eventful 9th, allowing a couple of scorching drives to the outfield and a BB to go with a scabby IF hit, loading the bases himself before getting Ichiro to end it).
Here's where I get really concerned: the Mariners are 12th in the league in runs and OPS. Yet they managed to score on the Twins' bullpen in each game, and chase the starters in the 6th in 2 of the 3 games. The starters are, on the whole, much better than the bullpen, so it's critical that they pitch deep into each game in order to minimize the outs needed from the increasingly shaky bullpen. If the 3rd worst offense in the league can do this to the Twins' pitching at the Dome, what's going to happen on the road over the next 2 weeks? I shudder to think. Will the offense be able to offset the damage while facing 3 of the 5 best pitching staffs in the league?
The Twins better rack up a couple more wins at home this week - while the racking is good...
Twins 7, Mariners 6
Twins 11, Mariners 8
First, the good news:
The Twins completed a home sweep of the AL's worst team, improving to 17-11 since the All-Star Break, and 12-4 at home. They need to rack up all the home wins they can right now, and so far they're 5-1 on the home stand with Oakland about to come stumbling in to town. Must win that series as well.
The offense scored 7 or more runs on 12 or more hits, including a HR, in each game. Altogether there were 27 runs, 40 hits, 11 doubles, 3 HR and 17 BB against just 7 K. That is a monumentally awesome performance, and they needed every bit of it.
Jason Kubel led the onslaught by going 8-10 with 2 doubles, a HR and 6 RBI. His pinch-hit RBI single in the 8th inning on Saturday night brought the Twins back to even, setting up the winning rally in the 9th. He was so hot Gardy even gave him a start against a LHP on Sunday - and he went 2-2 off the guy!
The series also brought some signs of life to some of the folks in the lineup who'd been slumping recently. Nick Punto went 6-14 with 3 doubles and 2 BB to raise his August OPS up to .675. Justin Morneau went 4-9 with a double, HR and 4 BB to raise his August OPS to .676. You might say, "Those OPS totals aren't that impressive." Yeah, well, you should have seen them three days ago!
Francisco Liriano had his best start of the year so far. He finished 7 innings, allowing 0 ER on just 2 H and 2 BB with 5 K. So far, he hasn't fallen off too far from the sort of performances he was putting up in AAA.
Scott Baker and Glen Perkins were great, too. For 5 innings.
And now, the bad news:
Baseball games last 9 innings, and from the 6th inning on, the Twins allowed 15 of the 17 runs the Mariners got in the series - 14 just on Saturday and Sunday. After cruising through 5 IP, both Baker and Perkins hit the wall hard in the 6th. Baker allowed 3 H and a BB to the first 5 batters of the inning before being replaced by Jesse Crain. Perkins managed to finish the 6th, but not before allowing 3 HR. His location drifted from the corners to the center of the plate, and even the Mariners know what to do with that.
So, bring in the bullpen (gulp!). Crain struck out the first man he faced, then gave up a walk and double to allow the 4th run of the inning. Craig Breslow came in with 2 men in scoring position and allowed the only hit of his otherwise solid relief stint, letting 2 more runs come in. Suddenly, in one trip through the order, a 5-0 lead had turned into a 6-5 deficit.
On Sunday, Boof Bonser was given a 10-4 lead to start the 7th inning. As is all too common with him, he allowed the first 2 batters to reach, and they came around to score, cutting the 6-run lead to 4. After 3 days off to "clear his head," Matt Guerrier was brought in to pitch the 8th. He got one out, but then BB, double, BB and he was off to the showers leaving a mess for Dennys Reyes. I won't criticize Reyes for allowing 2 infield hits (one a bunt single from Ichiro) - at least he didn't throw any wild pitches. Joe Nathan had to come in with the bases loaded and 2 out to finish the 8th (and he had an unusually eventful 9th, allowing a couple of scorching drives to the outfield and a BB to go with a scabby IF hit, loading the bases himself before getting Ichiro to end it).
Here's where I get really concerned: the Mariners are 12th in the league in runs and OPS. Yet they managed to score on the Twins' bullpen in each game, and chase the starters in the 6th in 2 of the 3 games. The starters are, on the whole, much better than the bullpen, so it's critical that they pitch deep into each game in order to minimize the outs needed from the increasingly shaky bullpen. If the 3rd worst offense in the league can do this to the Twins' pitching at the Dome, what's going to happen on the road over the next 2 weeks? I shudder to think. Will the offense be able to offset the damage while facing 3 of the 5 best pitching staffs in the league?
The Twins better rack up a couple more wins at home this week - while the racking is good...
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Road Trip (and Fall)
Mariners 11, Twins 6
Mariners 8, Twins 7
Twins 7, Mariners 3
Well, that could have gone a lot better, huh? It was funny to look at some of my other favorite blogs and see that most of them, like myself, were in no mood to comment on the disastrous results from Monday and Tuesday night. The Twins put up 6 or more runs in each game of this series, and so with even average pitching should have been able to come away with a sweep.
Before I go into my disappointment with their performance, however, a word about the Mariners. I have said many times that winning baseball games isn't just about who you play, but when you play them. Overall, the Twins are a much better team than the Mariners. But, in this series, the Twins' pitching and defense was not up to its normal level of precision, and the Mariners' entire lineup was absolutely locked in. In other words, we caught Seattle at the wrong time. Hopefully, the results will be different when the Twins face them 6 other times later in the month.
On to the disappointments:
Glen Perkins was giving up his share of hits (9) through 6 IP on Monday, but had kept the damage to just 1 R. Entering the 7th with a 5-run lead and very low pitch count (71), it made sense to send him out for that inning. After quickly retiring the first batter, Perkins allowed an 0-2 single to the #9 hitter, issued his first walk on 5 pitches, fell behind Willie Bloomquist before allowing a single to load the bases, then missed his spot by about 2 feet on the grand slam to Raul Ibanez. Perkins has often gotten stronger as the game goes along, so this sequence was extremely disappointing, especially compared to the solid numbers he put up in July.
And then, the bullpen came in. Starting with the bases empty and 1 out, Brain Bass, Craig Breslow and Matt Guerrier proceeded to allow 6 R on 5 H and 3 BB, combining for 38 pitches (17 strikes). They were abetted in their awfulness by 2 throwing errors and a passed ball from the defense. Even the Mariners can kick your ass if you fall behind everybody and give away tons of extra bases.
I'm not sure the Twins could have scored enough runs to overcome their abysmal 7th inning, but it should not be forgotten that Justin Morneau's 2-run double to put them ahead 6-0 in the 4th occurred with nobody out. That means that they had runners at second and third with nobody out and failed to get them in, thanks to a Mike Lamb strikeout and Brian Buscher GIDP. Granted, those guys were in the lineup to face RHP Miguel Batista, not LHP Jake Woods, but they need to be able to hit the ball out of the infield in that situation.
Scott Baker allowed himself to be lit up on Tuesday night, throwing too many fastballs to an aggressive swinging team. The 6 R and 11 baserunners he allowed in 5.1 IP made it easily his worst game of the season. He ran into a little bad luck in the 6th, when the rally began on a strikeout-wild pitch - even the Mariners can burn you when you give them an extra out - and the scorching hot Ibanez was able to pick up another 2-run single off LHP Breslow.
The offense bailed Baker out, thanks to a couple of HR from Jason Kubel and a big 2-out, 2-run, pinch-hit double from Mike Lamb. In the bottom of the 8th, with 3 straight lefties due up for the Mariners, Gardy brought in Guerrier, who had thrown 31 pitches over the previous 2 games, allowing 4 ER on 5 H and 2 BB in 1.1 IP. LHP Dennys Reyes did not pitch on Monday, and had thrown just 10 pitches in a perfect 9th inning on Sunday. Lefties are hitting .200/.246/.283 vs. Reyes, .253/.344/.361 vs. Guerrier. Ichiro hits about 60 points lower vs. LHP, Jeremy Reed over 100. I realize that Gardy wants Guerrier to be the 8th inning guy, but he's clearly tiring, and there was a better matchup available for this particular situation.
After Guerrier allowed 2 of those 3 lefties to reach, Gardy did something a lot of folks have been clamoring for for months: he brought in Joe Nathan in the 8th inning.He got cleanup hitter Adrian Beltre on a liner to short, then quickly got ahead of Jose Lopez 1-2. Nathan could not induce Lopez to swing at any sliders out of the zone, so on 3-2 he gave him a slider in the zone. Lopez lined it into the gap in left center, and with the runners moving on the full count pitch Ibanez was able to score from first with the winning run.
Nick Blackburn was also knocked around a bit, surrendering 9 H and a BB in just 6 IP, but he was able to limit the damage thanks to a couple of DPs. This time Reyes was allowed to face Ichiro/Reed/Ibanez in the 7th, allowing only a 2-out infield hit to the hotter than the flames of hell Ibanez. Jesse Crain then came on and served up a home run ball to Beltre.
(Now for the good news)
Denard Span to the rescue! Beltre's HR did not land in the seats, but was stolen by Span with a leaping catch over the wall in RF. Span also went 3-5 with a triple, SB, and career-high 4 RBI. Gardy confirmed after the game that Span will remain in the leadoff spot when Cuddyer returns next week. Hallelujah!
Lamb, despite striking out with 2 in scoring position on Monday, made a huge contribution in the series, going 3-6 with 2 doubles and 3 RBI. He's showing that the Twins may have been wise not to give up on him yet.
And how about that line from Adam Everett on Wednesday? 1-1 with a BB, RBI, R and 2 sac bunts. If his defense is back to 100% and he can give the Twins productive ABs like that, I think I'd rather see him at SS than Harris. Seems like there will be room for him in the #9 spot pretty soon.
Mariners 8, Twins 7
Twins 7, Mariners 3
Well, that could have gone a lot better, huh? It was funny to look at some of my other favorite blogs and see that most of them, like myself, were in no mood to comment on the disastrous results from Monday and Tuesday night. The Twins put up 6 or more runs in each game of this series, and so with even average pitching should have been able to come away with a sweep.
Before I go into my disappointment with their performance, however, a word about the Mariners. I have said many times that winning baseball games isn't just about who you play, but when you play them. Overall, the Twins are a much better team than the Mariners. But, in this series, the Twins' pitching and defense was not up to its normal level of precision, and the Mariners' entire lineup was absolutely locked in. In other words, we caught Seattle at the wrong time. Hopefully, the results will be different when the Twins face them 6 other times later in the month.
On to the disappointments:
Glen Perkins was giving up his share of hits (9) through 6 IP on Monday, but had kept the damage to just 1 R. Entering the 7th with a 5-run lead and very low pitch count (71), it made sense to send him out for that inning. After quickly retiring the first batter, Perkins allowed an 0-2 single to the #9 hitter, issued his first walk on 5 pitches, fell behind Willie Bloomquist before allowing a single to load the bases, then missed his spot by about 2 feet on the grand slam to Raul Ibanez. Perkins has often gotten stronger as the game goes along, so this sequence was extremely disappointing, especially compared to the solid numbers he put up in July.
And then, the bullpen came in. Starting with the bases empty and 1 out, Brain Bass, Craig Breslow and Matt Guerrier proceeded to allow 6 R on 5 H and 3 BB, combining for 38 pitches (17 strikes). They were abetted in their awfulness by 2 throwing errors and a passed ball from the defense. Even the Mariners can kick your ass if you fall behind everybody and give away tons of extra bases.
I'm not sure the Twins could have scored enough runs to overcome their abysmal 7th inning, but it should not be forgotten that Justin Morneau's 2-run double to put them ahead 6-0 in the 4th occurred with nobody out. That means that they had runners at second and third with nobody out and failed to get them in, thanks to a Mike Lamb strikeout and Brian Buscher GIDP. Granted, those guys were in the lineup to face RHP Miguel Batista, not LHP Jake Woods, but they need to be able to hit the ball out of the infield in that situation.
Scott Baker allowed himself to be lit up on Tuesday night, throwing too many fastballs to an aggressive swinging team. The 6 R and 11 baserunners he allowed in 5.1 IP made it easily his worst game of the season. He ran into a little bad luck in the 6th, when the rally began on a strikeout-wild pitch - even the Mariners can burn you when you give them an extra out - and the scorching hot Ibanez was able to pick up another 2-run single off LHP Breslow.
The offense bailed Baker out, thanks to a couple of HR from Jason Kubel and a big 2-out, 2-run, pinch-hit double from Mike Lamb. In the bottom of the 8th, with 3 straight lefties due up for the Mariners, Gardy brought in Guerrier, who had thrown 31 pitches over the previous 2 games, allowing 4 ER on 5 H and 2 BB in 1.1 IP. LHP Dennys Reyes did not pitch on Monday, and had thrown just 10 pitches in a perfect 9th inning on Sunday. Lefties are hitting .200/.246/.283 vs. Reyes, .253/.344/.361 vs. Guerrier. Ichiro hits about 60 points lower vs. LHP, Jeremy Reed over 100. I realize that Gardy wants Guerrier to be the 8th inning guy, but he's clearly tiring, and there was a better matchup available for this particular situation.
After Guerrier allowed 2 of those 3 lefties to reach, Gardy did something a lot of folks have been clamoring for for months: he brought in Joe Nathan in the 8th inning.He got cleanup hitter Adrian Beltre on a liner to short, then quickly got ahead of Jose Lopez 1-2. Nathan could not induce Lopez to swing at any sliders out of the zone, so on 3-2 he gave him a slider in the zone. Lopez lined it into the gap in left center, and with the runners moving on the full count pitch Ibanez was able to score from first with the winning run.
Nick Blackburn was also knocked around a bit, surrendering 9 H and a BB in just 6 IP, but he was able to limit the damage thanks to a couple of DPs. This time Reyes was allowed to face Ichiro/Reed/Ibanez in the 7th, allowing only a 2-out infield hit to the hotter than the flames of hell Ibanez. Jesse Crain then came on and served up a home run ball to Beltre.
(Now for the good news)
Denard Span to the rescue! Beltre's HR did not land in the seats, but was stolen by Span with a leaping catch over the wall in RF. Span also went 3-5 with a triple, SB, and career-high 4 RBI. Gardy confirmed after the game that Span will remain in the leadoff spot when Cuddyer returns next week. Hallelujah!
Lamb, despite striking out with 2 in scoring position on Monday, made a huge contribution in the series, going 3-6 with 2 doubles and 3 RBI. He's showing that the Twins may have been wise not to give up on him yet.
And how about that line from Adam Everett on Wednesday? 1-1 with a BB, RBI, R and 2 sac bunts. If his defense is back to 100% and he can give the Twins productive ABs like that, I think I'd rather see him at SS than Harris. Seems like there will be room for him in the #9 spot pretty soon.
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