Par for the Course

Twins 3, Yankees 4

Twins 5, Yankees 4 (10 innings)

Twins at Yankees (postponed)

Twins 3, Yankees 4

These games followed a similar blueprint. The Twins' starter struggled with command, putting baserunners on in front of a big XBH which put the Twins in an early hole. The offense struggled to make that up against the Yanks' strong pitching staff.

For Scott Baker on Monday, it was a HBP on an 0-2 pitch in front of A-Rod's drive down the LF line in the 1st. Then he walked Nick Swisher in front of Jorge Posada's deep fly to RF in the 2nd. I'm with Bert Blyleven: solo HR won't kill you (unless you give up 4 or 5). If Baker had made the Yankees hit their way on, he might have allowed 1-2 fewer runs. Props to him for settling down and making himself the 1st Twins starter to complete 6 IP, though.

On Tuesday, Brian Duensing walked the 1st batter of the game in front of a single and a 3-run HR. He really settled down after that, allowing just 1 more ER (another HR) and 4 H, 1 BB while getting 21 outs. Props to him on being the 1st Twins starter to complete 7 IP. I wish they didn't need the 1st inning to get warmed up, though.

Francisco Liriano's start on Wednesday also boiled down to a bad inning. That was the 4th, when he - guess what? - walked the leadoff man. That, plus a groundball single through the hole on the right side, put 2 guys on for the big mistake he made in the game - an RBI 2B on a 1-2 pitch. Overall, Liriano's line was pretty similar to that of his 1st start: 5 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K. At least he kept the ball in the yard!

The Twins' bullpen was very impressive in the series, throwing 9 scoreless innings, including 3 shutdown combined IP from Matt Capps and Joe Nathan from the 8th-10th on Tuesday. Holding the Yankees to 4 R/G is actually no small feat. But it should have been better. Of the 12 R the Twins allowed, 4 came from the guys who homered, 3 came from guys who hit their way on, and 5 came from guys the Twins put on via BB or HBP. The margin of error when they face the Yanks is so small, they can never afford to give away bases or outs. Would any of these 1-run games have turned out differently if the Twins had shown more Twins-like control?

The offense continued their anemic hitting. All three Yankees starters threw QS. The Twins hitters were able to muster just 5 R and 17 baserunners in 19 combined IP from Ivan Nova, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. Sabathia left the game having retired 17 straight Twins. Fortunately, the Yankees' relievers lost the strike zone and the Twins were able to get a couple of soft hits to fall in, stealing game 2 of the series.

It ended on a particularly sour note when Tsuyoshi Nishioka, playing in just his 6th MLB game, broke his leg while trying to turn a DP at 2B. Ironically, he paid a dear price for his own defensive imprecision: Nick Swisher, whose take-out slide caused the injury, would have been out easily had Nishioka not bounced his relay throw to Morneau in the dirt on the previous play. It doesn't sound like it's too serious (as broken legs go), so hopefully he'll be back in the lineup soon. I'm glad that Luke Hughes will get another chance to show what he can do so soon, but I don't think he's good enough to be more than a platoon player, either. He can only platoon with Matt Tolbert, and the more PAs he gets, the worse off the Twins will be. It didn't take long for the Twins' disconcerting lack of depth at the MI position to be exposed, did it?

The rainout on Wednesday immediately exposed the Twins' top-heavy, East Coast schedule. The only off days the Twins had before September that weren't in the middle of a home stand or a West Coast trip were May 5th and August 11th, and the Yankees are spoken for on both of those dates. So the Twins will have to return to the Bronx in the last 3 weeks of the season. I can't say I'm too disappointed. With them hitting so poorly right now, I've got to believe they'll be in a better flow later in the season. Plus, by then Bill Smith will have made whatever moves he's going to make, and the team that takes the field for the makeup game will be the playoff version of the Twins, not their spring training 1st draft.

A Gardy managed team has never won a series at Yankee stadium. Given recent history, par for this series was 1-3. Whatever happens in September, they've at least done that. Coming home for the opener at 2-4 isn't nearly as inspiring as the 5-2 opening road trip they enjoyed last season. But I'm neither surprised nor disappointed by that outcome. Plenty of good Twins teams have competed in the AL Central despite lousy trips to Toronto and New York. I expect this team to do the same.

Conclusions

The 2010 Twins were measurably better than the 2009 version, virtually across the board. They had a stronger rotation, a more even lineup, and a deeper bullpen. Those improvements showed up in 8 more regular season wins, and home field advantage in the ALDS against their nemesis, the Yankees.

It all meant nothing. If anything, the 2010 Twins gave a worse effort against a weaker opponent than the 2009 World Series champs were. They managed to play even for the first 6 innings of Games 1 & 2, but showed little life once they fell behind in the 7th. They hardly showed up for Game 3. New faces, new places, but still the same result. The Twins were swept again, running their postseason series losing streak to 6, home losing streak to 10, and overall losing streak to 12.

They should have been able to do what the Rangers did. After dropping Game 1 of the ALCS in similar fashion, Texas came back to win the next 3. Perhaps the Twins' pitchers couldn't have been expected to shut down the Yankee hitters as effectively as the Rangers' starters did. But the offense should have been able to do just as much damage to the lesser members of the NY rotation. Instead, they were utterly shut down by Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes. Michael Cuddyer fired all his bullets in Game 1. Jim Thome and Jason Kubel did essentially nothing.

So what's the lesson here? Did the Twins lose because their pitchers don't miss enough bats? Should they be trying to trade for Zach Greinke or Jonathan Sanchez or some other strikeout machine? I don't think so. Anybody could have lost with the offense producing like that. That series was about the Twins failing to hit with RISP. Bad luck? Mental block? Just one of those slumps you can get into over any given 3-game stretch?

Whatever it was, it's nothing to panic about. A 94-win team that won its division conclusively does not need to be retooled. Especially when it was competitive against the 5 other playoff teams it encountered during the regular season:

vs. Yankees: 2-4

vs. Rays: 3-5

vs. Rangers: 7-3

vs. Braves: 1-2

vs. Phillies: 2-1

Total: 15-15

Had the Twins drawn the Rays in the 1st round, it might have been a different story. Who knows? I'm not one to give more weight to 3 games against one particular team in October than I do to 162 games against a diverse schedule over 6 months. I'm proud of the 2010 Twins. They accomplished a lot, and with 2 of their elite, All-Star players unavailable for all but half a season.

Many players won't be coming back for 2011, but the core will. I would be very deliberate about breaking that group up with any trades. The payroll will be a challenge, but it's surmountable with patience and creativity. I hope to have more time to post my specific ideas about how to do that in the coming days. In the meantime, my advice to the front office is simply this:

Hold your cards.

I Will Fear No Evil

ALDS Preview

Obviously, since Ron Gardenhire took over as Twins manager in 2002, things haven't gone well against the Yankees. That's history. Nothing can change it. Let it go. This time can be different. Why?

These aren't the Twins of years past.

When the Yankees swept the Twins in the ALDS last year, the bottom of the Twins' lineup in each game featured some combination of Brendan Harris, Carlos Gomez, Jose Morales, Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto. The 2004 team that lost 3 straight to the Yankees fielded lineups that featured Lew Ford and Henry Blanco. These are bench players. This year's team will finish the lineup with Jason Kubel, Danny Valencia and JJ Hardy. Every hitter has some combination of ROTY votes*, MVP votes or All-Star appearances on their resume. Bona fide starters 1-9.

*Valencia looks like a good bet to finish in the top 3 this year.

These are the Yankees of years past.

They've been here before. Many, many times. Because they're old. Derek Jeter, A-Rod, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte and Lance Berkman are all north of 34. All but Rivera showed it this year, either by missing significant time due to injuries, or by showing declines in production, or both. In previous postseason match-ups the Yankees' core players were in their prime. Now they're well past it.

The earlier series were closer than you think.

The Twins are 2-9 against the Yankees in the postseason. But 3 of those losses came in extra innings. In 3 of the other losses the Twins held the Yankees to 4 or fewer runs. If Cory Koskie's double off Rivera late in game 2 of 2004 had stayed in play rather than bouncing into the stands, the Twins would have come home leading the series 2-0. If Gomez and Punto had been under control on the basepaths last fall, the Twins would have been dead even with the Yanks going into the 9th inning of game 3: series tied at 1, score tied at 2. Even while being badly overmatched from a personnel standpoint, which isn't the case this year.

The Twins are due.

Whether good or bad, streaks don't last forever. The Twins have lost 9 straight postseason games, and 5 straight series. Those streaks have been sustained by teams that came soaring into the 2006 and 2009 postseason on tremendous rolls. They were due to have letdowns. No such trouble this year, as the Twins enter the postseason in a 2-8 malaise. Each of the starters in the postseason rotation, most of the position players and a couple of the key bullpen pitchers have had at least one crappy game in the last 2 weeks. That's good. Everybody has a bad game now and then. Better to get it out of the way in meaningless games against the Tigers and Royals than on the big stage against the Yanks.

It can be done. Here are my keys to making it happen:

1. First Inning, Game 1

The Twins and their fans are carrying a lot of baggage into this series. The players will be more relaxed and the crowd livelier if things get off to a good start. Francisco Liriano has had some early-inning troubles this season. He did not end the regular season on a good note. He needs to have a scoreless 1st inning on Wednesday night. If it's a dominant inning, 1-2-3 with a K on 10 pitches, for example, that's even better.

Since the A lineup was first assembled in Fort Myers, they've been ambushing opposing pitchers in the 1st inning. Some real good ones, including John Danks, Zach Greinke and Felix Hernandez. No reason they can't jump on CC Sabathia, too. An early crooked number would go a long way toward making everyone believe that the Twins can prevail.

2. Michael Must Mash

The Yankees intend to use Sabathia in games 1 & 4 and Pettitte in games 2 & 5. That means that the Twins will be seeing LHP in about 2/3 of 4/5 of the games. This will largely neutralize Joe Mauer (.711 OPS) Jim Thome (.769) and Jason Kubel (.655). That means the righties in the lineup will have to pick up the slack. Delmon Young and Valencia have been doing it for most of the summer. The guy who's been missing lately is Michael Cuddyer. His OPS barely cleared .700 over the final 2 months of the season. However, vs. LHP, he raked at .896 in 2010. He's got to do that vs. Sabathia and Pettitte. If not more.

3. Don't Give Them Anything

The Yankees are very good at scoring runs, but they're actually only a little better than average at hitting. They are exceptionally good at taking walks. The Twins are exceptionally good at not giving up walks. Something's got to give there, and that matchup needs to fall the Twins' way. But it goes for more than walks. No HBP. No extra outs coming from errors. And don't give away any outs on the basepaths, either. This series is going to be tough enough if the Twins play flawlessly.

No more hype. Time to play the games.

Reflections on Deflections

Twins 0, Yankees 1

Twins 2, Yankees 3

Twins 8, Yankees 2

Coming into the series, the Twins and Yankees were pretty evenly matched in terms of league stats. They were nearly side-by-side in the rankings for scoring, pitching and defense. Taken as a whole, compare what the two teams were able to do this week:

• The Twins scored 10 runs, the Yankees 6.
• Each team hit 2 HR.
• The Twins had 3 SB, the Yankees 0.
• Twins starters allowed 4 ER on 20 H and 3 BB in 19 IP. Yankees starters allowed 7 ER on 19 H and 5 BB in 18.2 IP.
• Twins relievers allowed 2 ER on 5 H and 1 BB in 8 IP. Yankees relievers allowed 3 ER on 7 H and 5 BB in 7.1 IP.
• The Twins turned 4 DP, the Yankees 6.
• Each team committed 1 error.

It looks as though the Twins measured up just fine against the defending champs. (Perhaps the Yankees would have done more damage on offense if Jorge Posada and Curtis Granderson had been in the lineup. Or perhaps the Twins' pitching would have contained those guys as well.) So why didn't the Twins win the series?

It was perhaps more unfortunate for the Twins that Tuesday night's game was suspended due to rain, because the Twins were a lot closer to wearing down AJ Burnett than the Yanks were to wearing down Scott Baker. Then again, facing the Yankee bullpen in the 6th is an opportunity the Twins wouldn't have had without the rainout. And the Twins would have cashed in, except for this: Joe Mauer's leadoff liner struck the pitcher in the lower back and caromed high in the air, straight to A-Rod for an out.

Everything else in the series turned on that event. If that ball doesn't hit the pitcher, if it hits him and bounces before it reaches an infielder, if it hits him and deflects into foul territory (like a certain play from the first game in NY), Mauer reaches, and things are different. Let the rest of that inning play out exactly the way it did: Justin Morneau walks (Mauer to 2nd), Michael Cuddyer pops out (1 out), Jason Kubel doubles (Mauer scores), Delmon Young grounds out to deep short, Morneau scores (2 out). The bounce that liner took off the pitcher cost the Twins the 2 runs they needed to win the game.

Win that game and the Twins lose a squeaker late in game 2, then win emphatically in game 3, taking the series 2-1 and splitting the season series. What would everyone be saying about them then? This team is for real? It can keep up with the big boys? It's exorcised the demons that have plagued previous Ron Gardenhire teams?

The fundamentals of this team remain excellent. They are experiencing uncommonly bad luck while hitting with RISP, especially with the bases loaded. They are getting an unusually small number of HR out of their fly balls at Target Field. These things should even out if everyone remains patient. Meanwhile, are you going to let something as capricious as a deflection off a pitcher's backside color your opinion of what the 2010 Twins can be expected to accomplish? I'm not.

Yankee Doodles

Twins 4, Yankees 8

Slow going against AJ Burnett through 6 innings. But Scott Baker had a sensational strikeout night (9 K in 6 IP) to help him pitch around some insanely poor fortune on batted balls - the Yanks were 10 for 18 on balls in play. The Twins got a couple of big RBI hits from Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in the top of the 7th, and took a 4-3 lead into the bottom half.

Baker had a QS in his pocket and was approaching 100 pitches, but I like the decision to leave him in against hitters 9-1-2 in the Yankee lineup. Unfortunately, Francisco Cervelli led off with an IF H, then Derek Jeter got a 2B off of Baker's leg. Gardy tabbed Brian Duensing to face lefty Brett Gardner, and he got him on a shallow fly to keep the runners at 2nd and 3rd.

The next move forced Gardy to choose between two bad options: face the red-hot Mark Teixeira with 2 RISP, or put him on to load the bases for A-Rod, hoping for a DP. The way things have gone against A-Rod over his career vs. the Twins, I was hoping for option 1. Teixeira hasn't been very good against RHP yet, so maybe you let Matt Guerrier pitch to him, put A-Rod on 1st, then bring in Ron Mahay to face Robinson Cano. That might not have worked either, but it's what I would have preferred. Anyway, A-Rod lifted Guerrier's 2nd pitch over the wall left center for a GS. Same old, same old.

Twins 1, Yankees 7

I'll sum up this game by comparing a couple of batted balls from each team during the first 2 innings. Denard Span led off with a sinking liner to CF. Gardner came rushing in and laid out for a tumbling catch. I looked at three different slo-mo angles, and didn't find that any of them conclusively showed leather between the ball and the grass. That's how close that was to being a leadoff hit. Jeter, meanwhile, led off the game for the Yanks with a liner right past Francisco Liriano for a single and came around to score the game's first run.

In the 2nd, with a RISP and 2 out, Brendan Harris hit a liner back at the pitcher. It went straight into Andy Pettitte's glove for the last out of the inning. In the bottom half, with a RISP and 2 out, Jeter hit a sinking liner off the end of the bat that fell in front of Michael Cuddyer for an RBI single. Like Baker the night before, Liriano had a terrific K/BB ratio (7/0), though he allowed a costly HBP on an 0-2 pitch. But the Yanks managed to go 9 for 20 against him on balls in play.

It was still good enough for a QS, but this time Gardy went to the bullpen to start the 7th. Same result. Within 5 batters, the Yanks had put up a 4-spot, and the game was out of reach. The Twins eventually got a run off the Yankee bullpen, but Pettitte was able to shut the Twins out through 6.1 IP on just 2 H and 2 K. The Twins were 2 for 19 on balls in play vs. Pettitte. Phooey.

Twins 6, Yankees 3

Seemingly more of the same in the finale as would-be RBI H from the Twins caromed off the pitcher and were converted into outs, or went straight to the glove of Jeter for inning-ending DPs. Nick Blackburn continued the string of QS, walking just 1 but allowing 3 ER on 9 H through 7 IP. But the Twins trailed 3-1, and with Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera lined up to pitch the 8th and 9th, there wasn't much reason to hope that this game would have a happy ending.

The magic moment came with 2 outs in the 8th. Michael hit another liner with 2 men on, but this one hit the heel of Teixeira's glove and bounced away for an IF H, loading the bases. Rivera came in to face Jim Thome. He fell behind 3-0, and Thome got the benefit of a close call on 3-2 for a bases loaded walk. Don't like that, Yankees fans? Well, the 3-2 pitch to Morneau in the 6th was definitely a ball, and he was called out. So, it evened out. Jason Kubel came up next and ripped the first strike he saw into the short porch in RF for a GS. At last, a big hit with the bases loaded! And it came off Rivera! In Yankee Stadium! So many demons were exorcised with that swing.

To top it off, the Yankees got the 8th and 9th hitters on to start the bottom of the 9th, but Jon Rauch recovered to strike out Jeter, Gardner and Teixeira in succession to save the game. The only thing that could have been more poetic would have been a game-ending strikeout of A-Rod. But let's not push our luck.

Incredibly, a series that was for 25 innings a teeth-gnashing, hair-pulling frustration ended with elation. The Twins players could float out of Yankee Stadium on a cloud - I certainly felt great. Did we really expect to win 2 out of 3 there? Nobody else has. Big deal - they'll stick it to 'em at Target Field next week. The Twins dropped that series, but it kind of feels like they won it.

Notes:

• Kyle Gibson made his AA debut on Saturday, and it went pretty well: 7.1 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K. A couple more of those and he'll be in AAA by July.
• Danny Valencia has gone off with the bat. He's got a 16-game hitting streak, and has raised his season line to .305/.343/.405. No HR yet, but a team-leading 13 2B.
• Trevor Plouffe has been perhaps Rochester's most impressive hitter. He's been consistent all spring, and is sitting at .300/.369/.479. If the Twins decide to stick with JJ Hardy beyond this year, Plouffe could be making himself into a valuable trade asset.

Turn Out the Lights

I remember thinking last Tuesday how I wished the Twins' 2009 season could be like the movie "Major League:" come back to win the division on the last day of the season, kiss the girl, roll credits. Instead, before the champagne buzz had a chance to subside, they were thrust into the lion's den, the site of 4 rough May losses, against a team the Twins hadn't beaten all year. The Yankees were well rested, and their rotation was set up, beginning with their innings-munching, Cy Young, mega-contract ace, CC Sabathia. The Twins had to overcome all this minus their All-Star, former MVP 1B, their battle-tested 3B, and 3/5 of their original starting rotation, necessitating a Game 1 start from a guy who'd been in the Majors for only half a season, and a lineup that featured a handful of guys who had been bench players in August.

This mismatch was almost comically huge. Maybe that's why the result doesn't sting too badly. Did I really expect this Twins team to beat the Yankees? No, I don't think I did. But did I expect them to win at least one game? Yes. And, the way things developed, did I expect them to be able to win Game 2 and/or 3? Definitely.

The lack of precision that the Twins got away with against the Tigers was fatal against the Yanks. Overzealous baserunning cost the Twins a run in each of the last 2 games. Had Carlos Gomez prudently stopped at 2B, unwisely continued to 3B, or even gotten himself caught in a rundown, the Twins would have outscored the Yankees in the first 9 innings of Game 2. Had Nick Punto put the brakes on in the 8th inning of Game 3, the Twins could have gone into the 9th inning tied, and with momentum and the crowd behind them.

That might not have been enough, however, because the Twins' pitching, though rather good for most of the series, had a terrible habit of giving runs back as soon as the offense could produce them. The Twins scored first in each game, only to find Derek Jeter or A-Rod waiting to answer in the subsequent half-inning. Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano gave the Twins everything they could ask for, but the offense didn't show up. Delmon Young and Orlando Cabrera, so hot down the stretch, couldn't knock anyone in, and Jason Kubel struggled against the Yankees' LHP. Perhaps most egregiously, Joe Nathan couldn't get big outs. Yes, Mark Teixeira and A-Rod are great hitters, but Nathan is a great pitcher, just as reliably an All-Star, just as highly paid for his position. The 9th innings of Games 2 & 3 are why the Twins pay Nathan the big bucks, and he failed to do his job.

So ends the story of the 2009 Twins, a team that was mostly worse, but briefly, gloriously better than we had a right to expect them to be. I'll take another few days to savor the good things that happened in September, then analyze the whole season, then begin looking forward to 2010.

Twins' Feeble Skills No Match for Power of Dark Side

Yankees 10, Twins 2
Yankees 4, Twins 3
Yankees 6, Twins 4

Another year, another 7 games of futility vs. the Yankees. We can take some solace in the fact that 6 of the 7 games were close. But the Twins never led at any point during this series, so how close was it?

I get more worked up watching the Twins take on the Yankees than any other team. They never seem to expand the strike zone, and always find a way to foul off good pitches, wearing down the starting pitchers. And then they get numerous bloopers and infield hits to fall in around the occasional line drive. The Twins, meanwhile, when they aren't swinging feebly at balls out of the zone, seem to aim every hard-hit ball directly at a Yankee defender, so that they hardly have to move to record the out.

I could rant for awhile about the inequities between the 2 teams, but the Twins ultimately didn't get it done when they had their chances. Joe Mauer and Michael Cuddyer did not have their best ABs with the go-ahead runs on base. For Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano, disaster could have been avoided had they taken advantage of the weakness in the Yankee lineup, but bench players Francisco Cervelli and Cody Ransom each did rally-sustaining damage against them.

The last 6 games have told us a lot about how well the Twins as constituted can compete this season. They seem to be able to handle the Tigers, but weren't able to get above water against the Yankees. The good news is that the Twins don't have to play the Yankees again this season. Their 43-36 record against all other opponents translates to a .544 winning percentage. If they play at least that well for the remainder of the season, they should end up with 84-85 wins. Will that win the division? Maybe. Let's look on an even brighter side: since Joe Mauer returned to the lineup, the Twins are 32-25 against everybody not from the Bronx. That's a .561 winning percentage, good enough for 86 wins if the Twins can keep it up over the 2nd half.

Unless the Tigers or White Sox dramatically shake up their rosters, the Twins should be right there with them at the end of the season. But is it enough to get them over the hump? What happens to them in October if it is?

The current situation reminds of the 2003 Twins. They were 44-49 at the break, but came burning out of the gate after the All-Star break and went 46-23 for the rest of the season. What happened? The Shannon Stewart trade. The 2009 Twins need something like that. Not that there aren't things they could do to improve their lineup using the players they already have. Here's my list:

1. Pass the Torch from Redmond to Morales

Everybody knows that this is Mike Redmond's last year as the Twins' backup catcher. His skills are deteriorating quickly, and once a 38-year-old loses his skills, they don't come back (without steroids). Morales, meanwhile, is just entering into his peak years, and, as a switch-hitter, doesn't have the platoon limitations that Redmond displayed even in his prime. Redmond has become an easy out on Mauer's off days; Morales is 5th on the team in OPS, albeit in limited ABs. However, Redmond and Morales have had similar playing opportunities, and Morales has better than .200 points of OPS on Redmond. Leave the old man on the bench and play the kid - the lineup is much stronger with Morales in it. In fact,

2. Put Morales in the lineup every day

He's always been a good average hitter in the minors, so while his numbers may come down some as he gets more ABs, Morales should still remain a productive addition to the batting order. And again, as a switch-hitter, he adds balance to the lineup no matter who takes the mound against the Twins. Put Morales in the DH slot on days when Mauer is catching. But where does that leave Jason Kubel?

3. Platoon Kubel and Young in LF

Jason Kubel isn't a very good defender in LF, but he's still probably just a bit better than Delmon Young, so it actually improves the OF defense to have him out there. While he's mashing RHP to the tune of a nearly 1.050 OPS with all 14 of his HR, he's hit an anemic .179/.247/.224 vs. LHP. That's like Matt Tolbert or Alexi Casilla. As disappointing as Young has been, he can definitely top that, with an OPS in the high .700s vs. LHP for his career thus far. For reasons well illustrated by Twins Geek, the Twins are stuck with Young. A platoon would be a way to give him the best possible circumstances in which to shine and raise his value for either the Twins or a future trade. But what happens to Carlos Gomez in this scenario?

4. Swap Gomez for Pridie

At this stage, Gomez is mainly being deployed as a 4th OF, coming in as a PR of defensive sub late in games. Jason Pridie is a plus runner and defender, and can fill that role nearly as well. At 24 years old and in his 3rd year at AAA, he has likely reached his ceiling as a prospect - his 5/1 K/BB ratio is exactly what it was last year, meaning that he'll never develop the on-base skills to be more than a bench guy. Gomez, however, has shown some strides in that department, narrowing his K/BB from just under 6/1 to a little under 3/1. Now he needs to keep that up, while reincorporating his bunting and SB skills and continuing to work on shortening his swing and driving the ball the other way. His best chance of developing is to get 4-5 PA every day at Rochester for the remainder of their season. Let's give him 150 or so AB in the International League and see what he's learned by September 1st. And while we're looking at Rochester,

5. Swap Tolbert for Casilla or Tolleson

I'd be inclined to go with Casilla, because he's been at Rochester longer, switch-hits, and has better range and speed than Steve Tolleson. In 34 games with the Twins, Casilla could scarcely have performed worse, hitting .180/.242/.225 while playing spacey defense in the field. While he's still made his share of mistakes with the glove, in 37 games with Rochester he's hitting .340/.377/.422, so whatever was troubling him with the bat seems to have been resolved. While he was up briefly in June he hit .222/.323/.296 - even if he only maintained that for the rest of the season it would be a pretty healthy step up from Tolbert. Tolleson, meanwhile, has hit .285/.369/.421 between New Britain and Rochester this year. He has a terrific eye at the plate and so should at least be able to get on base once he's called up. However, he's only played 39 games above AA so far, so it probably makes the most sense for him to finish the season at Rochester and then come up in September. But if he were to replace Tolbert, I have little doubt that he'd be an upgrade.

6. Maximize the PA from the best hitters

Gardy had it for awhile there in May, batting Mauer 2nd and shifting the rest of the big hitters up. But then Brendan Harris got hot, and it was so nice to have a righty in between Mauer and Span, and a guy like Mauer should be batting 3rd, right? No - a guy like Mauer should be batting as often as possible. Span does a terrific job as the prototypical leadoff man, but then Mauer and his .461 OBP should be hitting 2nd. And Morneau's .390 should be 3rd. Basically, the Twins' top 6 hitters are Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Span and Morales. They should be the first 6 hitters in the lineup, in that order after Span leads off. Don't insert filler in between them - ultimately, that will result in broken up rallies and an All-Star left in the on-deck circle at the end of the game. Yes, that leaves an opening for a LOOGY to come in late in a game, but Span (.922 OPS), Mauer (.989 OPS) and Morneau (.970 OPS) all hit lefties well enough that it's not worth worrying about. As long as Cuddyer (.985 OPS) comes before Kubel (the aforementioned .471 OPS), Gardy can either set up a nice matchup if the opponent wants to stick with the LOOGY, or force the other team to burn a pitcher.

That's the best we can do right now. These adjustments should be worth another couple of wins for the Twins, getting them up to about last year's total of 88. That's about what the Tigers are on pace for; the Sox are on pace for 84. The Twins should be just about good enough to win the division, but nowhere near enough to compete with the Eastern Division juggernaut they would almost certainly face in the first round of the playoffs.

You'll notice there are no fixes for a bullpen that currently consists of Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Morales and 3 long relievers. That's because Jesse Crain and Juan Morillo are still walking too many guys at AAA to justify a call-up right now. In order to upgrade the 'pen, and ensure that the team can win 90+ games and defeat the AL's best teams, the Twins are going to have to make a trade for this year's Shannon Stewart. How they might pull that off I'll have to leave for another time.

Meet the New Bronx

Yankees 5, Twins 4
Yankees 6, Twins 4 (11 innings)
Yankees 3, Twins 2 (10 innings)
Yankees 7, Twins 6

I hate the Yankees. I think it started with the Chuck Knoblauch trade, when their already deep team was augmented with the only star player the Twins had at the time. Knoblauch's implosion and several good years of Eric Milton and Christian Guzman helped me get over that, but every time the Yankees sign a smaller team's franchise player, or the Twins lose one of their stars to a huge market team, I'm resentful. Seeing the Yankees lose is one of my greatest pleasures as a baseball fan.

So it's been particularly galling to me that the Twins have utterly failed to bring any defeats to the Yankees in NY during the Gardenhire era. Every season, no matter how talented the Twins are, they absolutely fall apart in the Bronx, losing 19 of 22 games from 2002-2008 by a combined score of 128-67, with 10 of the losses coming by 4 or more runs. Even with the Yankees struggling a bit coming into the series, with A-Rod and Mark Teixeira hitting poorly, with their bullpen among the worst in the league, with Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain getting knocked around early in games, everything seems to go right for them once the Twins come to town.

And yet, I'm not nearly as disgusted as I was with the recent series in New York. The Twins got 3 QS (again, I don't think that should be taken away from a pitcher if he gives up a 4th run after the 6th inning), and when Glen Perkins faltered on Monday, R.A Dickey stepped up with his best outing of the year, 4.1 scoreless IP. The defense committed just one error in the 4 games, and made some outstanding plays, including Joe Mauer's game-saving, diving tag of Brett Gardner on Sunday, probably the best play we will ever see from a catcher. The offense continued to grind away at the opposing pitchers, walking at least 5 times in each game and hitting 7 HR.

The Twins were right there until the last inning in every game, giving the Yanks everything they could handle. I was proud to see the Twins match up so well with a team that many have projected to win 95 or so games, especially on the road. It was like watching the '91 World Series again, except every game was played in Atlanta. The great thing about that series was that the games were so close, every mistake was magnified - you had to play your very best all the time in order to win.

And that's the disappointment of this series, I suppose. The Twins played very well, but not quite well enough. In a series this close, the offense can't stop hitting with men in scoring position. Every HR came with the bases empty. The Yankees' defense certainly took some things away - Denard Span must have wondered how he had offended the baseball gods after he lost 3 potential hits in 4 AB to outstanding plays by the Yankee IF - but there were some giveaways, too. With the bases loaded, 2 out and Mauer on deck, why is Matt Tolbert swinging at a 2-0 pitch? A BB forces in the lead run and brings the game's best hitter to the plate, and Tolbert isn't exactly mashing right now (.179/.283/.231). In such a tight series, everyone has to be disciplined.

But almost everybody whose last name doesn't begin with an "M" had letdowns. In such a tight series, Joe Nathan can't serve up a leadoff triple to the 4th OF. Nick Blackburn can't walk 2 in a row with 2 out in front of Teixeira. Michael Cuddyer can't forget to retouch 2nd base on a fly out. Span can't uncork the worst throw of his big league career on the game-tying SF.

These things are largely within the Twins' power to improve, and hopefully they can look at this series as a test they couldn't quite pass. Now they've seen what they need to do to beat the best on the road, and they have to rise to the challenge and incorporate those things into their game. The good news is, most of the rest of the AL isn't as good as the Yankees, so the level of play the Twins brought to this series should serve them pretty well in Chicago, for example.

That said, the bullpen certainly needs to be improved, and the Twins are making an attempt to do that by bringing up Sean Henn from Rochester while Perkins goes on the DL. Henn's been having a very good year at Rochester, posting a 1.13 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 24 IP with a 32/10 K/BB ratio. For his career, his numbers haven't been too different from Craig Breslow's, so while we might get something like Breslow gave last year, we could also get what Breslow's been giving us this year. I'd still like to see another move made, maybe ditching Luis Ayala in order to give Anthony Swarzak a couple of chances in the rotation.

Minor League Notes

While I'm on the subject, I think there are some guys who should be promoted to Rochester by the end of the month. Rob Delaney and Anthony Slama continue to do very good work for the Rock Cats, though Slama's BB rate has accelerated a bit in recent games. These guys are the best hope for the Twins bullpen future, and the sooner the future becomes the present, the better. Then there's Danny Valencia, who went 2-4 with a 3B on Sunday to raise his line to .313/.405/.552, good for 6th in the IL in OPS. He's cut his K/BB rate from about 4/1 last year to 3/2, about where it was when he was promoted from Fort Myers. If he's going to have a chance to win the 3B job out of spring training next season, the Twins would be wise to give him as much seasoning at AAA as they can this year.

Under Control

Twins 4, Yankees 0
Yankees 9, Twins 6 (12 innings)
Twins 4, Yankees 2

Just like in KC, the Twins came just 1 run short of a series sweep. Winning series should be enough to keep them in the running with the White Sox, but a sweep here and there could help them pull away. Plus, it would have been nice to pay the Yanks back for the sweep they dealt the Twins a couple weeks ago. Still, with as tough a time as the Twins have had with the Yankees over the last several years, it's nice to see them at least hold their own at home: 4-3, and all three losses were by 1 run or in extra innings. That's progress...

Clearly, the Twins were facing the Yankees at the right time. All those bottom-of-the-order guys who were racking up hits in NY were back to their typical selves - Robinson Cano, Ivan Rodriguez, Richie Sexson, Wilson Betemit, Jose Molina and Melky Cabrera combined to go 6 for 36 with 5 BB out of the 6-9 slots. But give credit to Glen Perkins - he held the 1-5 hitters (Derek Jeter, A-Rod and Xavier Nady among them) to 3-17 by giving them an unpredictable mix of fastballs and changeups. Kevin Slowey held the top 5 of the order (including Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi) to 2 hits and 1 BB, using his typical pinpoint control to paint the corners and keep the ball away from the middle of their bats.

Nick Blackburn usually has very good control, but not so on Tuesday. It looked to me like one of those games in which the pitcher's stuff is breaking so much that he can't really locate it. The result was an unusually high number of strikeouts early on (5 in 4.2 IP), but also an unusually high number of walks (3). And the Yankees made him pay for it: 2 of the 3 men Blackburn walked came around to score. The 2-out double he allowed to Nady was a pretty good pitch - knee-high on the outside black - yet Nady pulled it with authority into the left-center field gap. Gotta give credit to the hitter on that one. I guess Carlos Gomez overthrew cutoff man Adam Everett, but Brian Buscher was right behind him to relay the ball to the plate. A good throw would have easily nailed Giambi, but Buscher's throw short-hopped Mike Redmond, allowing a crucial extra run to score.

The bullpen, needing to throw (as it turned out) 7.1 innings, did reasonably well until the 12th. Boof Bonser, as usual, allowed a run - he let the first 2 batters reach in the 6th and 7th innings (I'm amazed he got away with it in the 6th). Craig Breslow threw 1 pitch (I wonder if Gardy wished he'd kept him available once extra innings came along). When it came to the 12th inning, it was down to another inning of Matt Guerrier vs. the heart of the Yankees' lineup, or Brian Bass, so I can't blame Gardy for sticking with Guerrier. Still, that makes 12 runs allowed in Guerrier's last 8 appearances. I hope the rest of the pitching staff can step up and give him a break.

Great job in this series by Joe Nathan and Dennys Reyes. Nathan pitched in all 3 games, accumulating 3.1 IP, 2 saves, and allowing just a BB while striking out 6. Reyes struck out 4 of the 5 men he faced, and his wild pitch that allowed a run to score on Wednesday could have easily been blocked by Joe Mauer. I'm starting to feel good about Reyes pitching (to lefties) in tight spots late in games.

As Justin Morneau's average has dwindled from a peak of .325 down to .303, it's become apparent that he's having yet another slow August. His July was so preposterously awesome that this month had to come down somewhat, but right now his OPS is less than half of what it was last month. You can see it when he fouls off a pitch up on the inner half - the pitches he was drilling only a couple of weeks ago. And he's not the only one - Nick Punto, Joe Mauer and Brian Buscher are all way down from their July productivity.

I would have put Delmon Young in that category before this series, but he's broken out over the last 2 games, going 5 for 9 with a double, 2 HR and 6 RBI. That effort helped to lift his August line to .263/.333/.526 with 3 HR, 9 RBI and a 2/4 K/BB ratio. His dramatic, game-tying HR off Mariano Rivera helped turn a game that looked lost into one that the Twins had every opportunity to win. Can he carry the team until Morneau snaps out of it?

Glad That's Over With

Yankees 12, Twins 4
Yankees 8, Twins 2
Yankees 5, Twins 1

Another year, another debacle at Yankee Stadium. The Twins have had a lot of success over the last 7 years while falling on their faces in NY, so I'm content to write this off as more of the same. This year it could have been the timing as much as the locale: several Yankee players who had been marginal all season are suddenly red hot, collecting multi-hit games from the bottom of the lineup and providing quiet innings of middle relief.

In any event, not a situation into which you want to come and play crappy baseball, but that's what the Twins did. 4 errors led to 4 unearned runs, while an overthrow and a brain fart led to three more runs that shouldn't have been charged to the pitchers. Add to that a 4 for 33 effort from the 3-5 hitters, and you've got a miserable series on your hands.

Alexi Casilla was one of the few Twins to show up at the plate, going 6-12 with a double. But it wasn't enough to make up for his mishaps in the field. His low throw to the plate with the bases loaded early in the first game was the difference between Nick Blackburn finishing the 2nd down 3-2, and not finishing the second down 6-2. I think Gardy was a little quick with the hook there, considering all the unearned runs. A-Rod's single that chased Blackburn was just a grounder off Brian Buscher's glove at 3rd - not like he pounded one into the gap or anything. I wonder if Mr. Hernandez would have been pulled in the same situation. Hopefully Blackburn was just suffering the effects of a sinker-ball pitcher getting too much rest, and he'll be right back on track vs. Cleveland.

I thought the hook was a little quick for Kevin Slowey, too. He'd allowed just 2 H and 2 BB through 5 IP, yet was pulled just 4 batters into the 6th, 2 outs shy of a quality start. Dennys Reyes had a rare poor outing vs. lefty batters, allowing an inherited run to be charged to Slowey. Jesse Crain was then victimized somewhat by a couple of errors behind him in the 4-run 7th.

Glen Perkins should have been out of the 5th with no runs allowed, but Casilla forgot how many outs there were and failed to complete a potential inning-ending DP. The next batter doubled home two runs (on a grounder over the bag at 3rd, mind you, not a blast to the gap). The blast to the gap came from A-Rod in the next inning, and a poor throw to the plate enabled him to go to 3rd (though he didn't exactly haul ass out of the batter's box for his drive off the wall). The next batter drove him in with a SF. With better defense behind him, Perkins might have allowed just 2 ER in 6 IP, and at 80-odd pitches would have likely come out for the 7th.

So things aren't as bad as they seem for the rotation. However, Francisco Liriano put up his 5th gem in a row in Rochester: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10 K. That makes it 35 IP, 19 H, 1 R, 5 BB, 42 K over his last 5 starts. I don't really care who gets displaced at this point - that guy needs to be with the Twins right now.

One good thing that came from the series was the switch of Denard Span to leadoff and Carlos Gomez to 9th in the order. Span responded by going 2-7 with a BB. Gomez, his confidence shattered, went 2-6 with a double. Perhaps reason is finally having its day in the Twins' clubhouse.

I probably won't be able to say much about the next 2 series. I'm going on vacation to Wisconsin Dells, and the resort we're using has been, in my opinion, absurdly negligent about setting up Wi-fi/high-speed internet for its guests. If they've finally gotten around to it, I'm in business. But if they've been distracted by other things, we'll just have to wait until August.

Yankess Go Home

Yankees 6, Twins 5
Yankees 7, Twins 6 (12 Innings)
Twins 5, Yankees 1
Twins 6, Yankees 5

I guess we shouldn't be surprised that two approximately .500 teams split a 4-game series. But as each Yankee came to the plate for the first time on Friday night, and the broadcasters reported that they all had .320 career BAs vs. the Twins, it accentuated what an accomplishment it is for the Twins to not lose a series to the Yanks, even if it was at home. The Twins performed quite well, overall, and had Nick Punto fielded that grounder in the 3rd inning on Saturday, it might have been a 3-1 series win for the Twins.

Glen Perkins simply didn't have it on Friday night. He couldn't locate his pitches, and not in the safe, "Oh well, I walked him" way, but in the "I fell behind and then threw a strike that was up and over the plate, so I gave up 5 ER in 4 IP with a 3.00 WHIP" way. This does not concern me. He was so good in his first 4 starts, anybody can have one bad one, especially a young starter like Perkins. If he keeps throwing good games 80% of the time, I can't complain.

Boof Bonser wasn't awful in his last start. Had his defense been perfect, he might have had an opportunity to finish the 6th inning and get a quality start. However, with 3 BB and only 2 K in 5+ IP, it certainly wasn't enough to stave off his demotion. Hopefully he'll be able to let it go a little more from the 'pen, and his K/9 totals can work their way up.

The biggest surprise of Blackburn's start was the 3 BB - goes to show what a patient team the Yanks can be. Still, he looked well on his way to another quality start before he was hit in the nose by a line drive. Looks like he'll be OK for Friday in Chicago.

On Monday, the Twins won once again in spite of Livan Hernandez. He gave up double-digit hits again in 6+ IP, and his season ERA is fast-approaching 5.00. If Francisco Liriano continues to perform well in AAA, it should become apparent very soon that the Twins will be better off with him in the rotation than Livan.

The bullpen performed brilliantly under considerable duress. In 19.2 IP (almost 5 IP/game!), they allowed just 3 ER on 19 H and 4 BB for a 1.17 WHIP. Craig Breslow had an impressive Twins debut, striking out 3 in 1.2 perfect innings. Joe Nathan pitched 3 consecutive days and did not collapse. Word is the bullpen may expand to 13 members on Thursday when Scott Baker returns from the DL. I don't think that's necessary, especially if the starters resume their recent habit of pitching deep into games.

The defense made just one error in the series. Too bad it proved to be so costly.

The Twins offense continued to carry the team, scoring 5 or more runs in each game. Michael Cuddyer led the way, going 9-18 with a 2B, 3B, HR and 6 RBI. Delmon Young was right behind him, going 8-18 with 4 2B and 4 RBI. Alexi Casilla continued to produce from the #2 spot, going 5-15 with 4 R, 3 RBI and 3 BB. Joe Mauer finally broke his HR drought. The only part of the lineup that disappointed was Carlos Gomez, who went 3-20 with 6 K, and only 1 R and 1 RBI. Hopefully he can shake it off and get back to kicking ass against the Orioles.