Baseball's Winter Meetings have concluded, and the Twins' big free agent signing was:
Nick Punto.
Punto's 2-year, $8.5 million (+option) contract means he'll be the Twins' opening day shortstop. This is somewhat disheartening because, of course, it doesn't make the team any better. Had Bill Smith been more bold or creative, there probably was a deal possible for a more impressive player.
On the bright side, the team didn't get any worse, either. The Twins' great strength right now is their good, young, cheap starting rotation, and everyone in baseball knows it. Smith was wise not to trade away any of the starters for a player who would represent only a marginal upgrade over the status quo (i.e. Jack Wilson). It's encouraging to see him showing such good sense.
Looking around the division, I don't see the moves that have been made so far helping the Tigers and White Sox very much - the Twins are still safely ahead of them on paper. The Royals have made some improvements, but probably not enough to make up 13 games in the standings. The Indians should be the major competition - their moves, combined with contributions from healthy Victor Martinez, Jake Westbrook and Travis Hafner, should be able to bring their win total into the high 80s.
As I stated earlier, the same Twins team that finished last season can win 88 games again provided they remove Carlos Gomez' anemic RH bat and replace it with Michael Cuddyer's healthy RH bat. It isn't unreasonable to assume that several of the younger players will make incremental gains in their numbers as they continue to adjust to the league, meaning the starters should throw more innings with a lower ERA, and Denard Span, Delmon Young, Alexi Casilla and Brian Buscher should get even more comfortable. Jesse Crain should be better in the second year back from his surgery, and Matt Guerrier should rebound to somewhere close to his career numbers. It's a roster that doesn't need any desperate action.
If Punto is the weakest hitter in it (batting 9th), I think that's OK. He plays above-average defense at SS, he's a threat to steal bases, and he does a pretty good job of working counts. As long as he can keep his OBP closer to .350 than .300, he'll be a solid contributor.
The remaining pieces the Twins might like to alter are 3rd base and the bullpen. I believe the Buscher/Harris platoon should be able to produce a combined OPS of at least .800 from what I project will be the #8 spot in the lineup, which would be pretty good. It's their defense that's the problem. The trouble is, the only third basemen I've heard discussed as possible alternatives either don't hit any better or don't field any better or both. In spite of that, many of their teams are demanding someone from the Twins' rotation in a trade - no thanks.
A particularly irksome development on this front is the news that Adrian Beltre recently put the Twins on his list of teams to which he can block a trade. Speculation is that this move was conceived by his agent, Satan - er, Scott Boras - to force the Twins to basically bribe him into waiving the no-trade clause. How cynical. But really, Adrian, do you want to spend your walk year in the middle of a rebuilding in Seattle or in the middle of a pennant race in MN? Which situation will produce the gaudier stats, playing with a bunch of kids in a pitcher's park, or batting with Span and Joe Mauer constantly on base in front of you? In 10 full seasons, Beltre has significantly exceeded an .800 OPS only twice - he's nothing more than a defensive upgrade over Buscher/Harris. Considering he's already going to cost a player or 2 in a trade and earn $12 million, I don't see any reason to bend over backward to give him more. He should be lobbying to get out of Seattle and come play for us. Who needs that?
Joe Crede is the best remaining free agent option. Like Beltre, he's had just 2 seasons with an OPS well over .800, but plays pretty good defense. Coming off 2 injury-shortened seasons, He'd probably be available for a cheap, short-term deal. None of the potential trade partners are worth the loss of a starter they'd require - though I still think Andy LaRoche could be extracted from Pittsburgh for some relatively painless pieces such as Philip Humber and Boof Bonser. Smith and Gardy say they're comfortable going into spring training with Buscher and Harris as their third basemen, and they should be. Just make sure you work like crazy with them on their defense.
As for the bullpen, I really don't think it's as bad as it seems. After all, 4 of the returning members (Joe Nathan, Jose Mijares, Craig Breslow and Crain) actually pitched quite well in 2008. If Guerrier were to rebound to his career averages (3.66 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) he'd be a perfectly decent contributor. That leaves a long-relief spot for either Bonser (who can't possibly repeat last year's badness - can he?), Humber or Rule 5 pickup Jason Jones. That group would probably be OK as is, though I'd still welcome a free agent and AAA guys like Bobby Korecky to the mix.
The Twins aren't doing much so far this winter, but they don't really need to. They can compete for the division title with what they've got. Winning in the playoffs is a different story. With some serious upgrades, they could be World Series contenders. With the status quo, they're going to need some good breaks.
Showing posts with label Nick Punto. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nick Punto. Show all posts
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Monday, December 8, 2008
Short Sales
It looks as though the Dodgers will win the Casey Blake sweepstakes (awwwwww), so the Twins can now turn their attention to other players. With the Tigers signing Adam Everett today, there has been talk that the Twins might now be interested in Pirates shortstop Jack Wilson, who the Tigers had been courting recently. Since the season ended, I've been emphasizing that any moves the Twins make (especially trades) should be a clear improvement over the status quo. At the SS position, that means Nick Punto.
Is Wilson an upgrade? Here are their career averages per 508 ABs (Wilson's career AB total divided by 8 seasons. Punto's defensive numbers apply only to his time at SS):
Wilson: .269/.312/.375, 25 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 29 BB, 61 K, 4 SB, .978 Fielding %, .846 ZR
Punto: .252/.319/.332, 21 2B, 5 3B, 3 HR, 52 BB, 94 K, 19 SB, .977 Fielding %, .857 ZR
More interested in the recent past? Here are their 3-year numbers:
Wilson: .281/.328/.390, 1325 AB, 74 2B, 4 3B, 21 HR, 84 BB, 138 K, 8/18 SB, .980 Fielding %, .830 ZR
Punto: .258/.327/.337, 1269 AB, 58 2B, 15 3B, 4 HR, 134 BB, 215 K, 48/65 SB, .966 Fielding %, .851 ZR
Basically, Wilson will hit for more power, but will reach base no more often than Punto. The low BB & K totals tell me that Wilson is a hacker who doesn't go deep into counts. His greatly reduced triples total and ZR in recent years tell me that he's already lost a step. Wilson is owed $7.25 million in 2009 with an $8.4 million club option for 2010 ($0.6 million buyout). Punto could be signed for far less than that, and the Twins wouldn't have to give up any other players to get him.
Given their relative strengths, I'd rather have Punto - provided he's the #9 hitter, meaning Carlos Gomez spends the season on the bench or in the minors. The few extra bases Wilson would likely get over Punto wouldn't be worth the added costs of acquiring him. I'd rather have a guy at the bottom of the lineup who works counts and can steal a base anyway. If the Twins are really interested in Wilson, then they ought to just sign Punto.
However, there is still Rafael Furcal. When the offseason began, he seemed to be well out of the Twins' league. But that might not be the case anymore. He hasn't turned out to be a Type A or B free agent, thanks to an abnormally poor 2007 and an injury-shortened 2008; the Dodgers did not offer him arbitration. He earned nearly $30 million over the past 2 seasons, so, of course, he doesn't want his next contract to be a huge step down from that. That's probably why he turned down the A's recent offer of $9-10 million/year for 4 years.
But with other teams that were targeting shortstops filling the void with lower-cost options, a large market for Furcal's services doesn't look like it will materialize. That leaves Furcal with a decision to make - accept a long-term deal for less money than he thinks he's worth, or negotiate a short-term deal for good money and hope that his performance earns him a bigger long-term contract in a year or two, while he's still relatively young (he's 31 now).
The Twins should be able to accommodate him in either scenario. If he's willing to sign a 4-year deal for a low 8-figure salary, that's a relative bargain for one of the premier free agent position players. If he'd rather do 1-2 years for $15 million/year, the Twins have the payroll space available for that as well, and the team's risk is lower. Remember, the Twins offered Torii Hunter $15 million/year just 13 months ago. If they were offering Blake $6 million/year, and figuring at least $3 million for Punto, that's already upwards of $9 million they had budgeted for the left side of the infield. With Buscher/Harris slated to earn less the $500,000 each, it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to get to $12 million or so for a long-term deal on Furcal and keep those guys as a 3B platoon, something the Twins have indicated they'd be OK with if they could get a good SS.
Furcal would be quite a good SS. Adding his numbers to the above comparison (again, career averages are per 508 ABs):
Career: .286/.352/.412, 25 2B, 6 3B, 9 HR, 51 BB, 72 K, 28 SB, .966 Fielding %, .834 ZR
3-year: .293/.362/.420, 67 2B, 15 3B, 26 HR, 148 BB, 183 K, 70/92 SB, .969 Fielding %, .838 ZR in 1378 AB
As you can see, Furcal matches Wilson's power and Punto's plate discipline while hitting for a much higher average and stealing far more bases. He gives up a little bit defensively, but not enough to be a huge concern (the Twins could always swap him with Casilla if they think his range is slipping). Furcal is a gigantic upgrade over the status quo and therefore worth spending some money on. He would enable the Twins to send Alexi Casilla to the bottom of the order and give the Twins a proven leadoff hitter should Denard Span get injured or regress. If Furcal would sign for at least 2 years, the likelihood of him leaving the Twins as a type A or B free agent is pretty good, meaning they'd get an extra draft pick or two when he moves on.
The Twins have the means to acquire one of the best available shortstops and substantially improve the team without having to trade any of the young players who were so valuable to their success in 2008. I think they should at least offer Furcal a richer deal than Oakland did. Meanwhile, as long as they're talking to the Pirates in Vegas, why not take a gamble on Andy LaRoche? Bringing him in to play 3rd could really pay off.
Is Wilson an upgrade? Here are their career averages per 508 ABs (Wilson's career AB total divided by 8 seasons. Punto's defensive numbers apply only to his time at SS):
Wilson: .269/.312/.375, 25 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 29 BB, 61 K, 4 SB, .978 Fielding %, .846 ZR
Punto: .252/.319/.332, 21 2B, 5 3B, 3 HR, 52 BB, 94 K, 19 SB, .977 Fielding %, .857 ZR
More interested in the recent past? Here are their 3-year numbers:
Wilson: .281/.328/.390, 1325 AB, 74 2B, 4 3B, 21 HR, 84 BB, 138 K, 8/18 SB, .980 Fielding %, .830 ZR
Punto: .258/.327/.337, 1269 AB, 58 2B, 15 3B, 4 HR, 134 BB, 215 K, 48/65 SB, .966 Fielding %, .851 ZR
Basically, Wilson will hit for more power, but will reach base no more often than Punto. The low BB & K totals tell me that Wilson is a hacker who doesn't go deep into counts. His greatly reduced triples total and ZR in recent years tell me that he's already lost a step. Wilson is owed $7.25 million in 2009 with an $8.4 million club option for 2010 ($0.6 million buyout). Punto could be signed for far less than that, and the Twins wouldn't have to give up any other players to get him.
Given their relative strengths, I'd rather have Punto - provided he's the #9 hitter, meaning Carlos Gomez spends the season on the bench or in the minors. The few extra bases Wilson would likely get over Punto wouldn't be worth the added costs of acquiring him. I'd rather have a guy at the bottom of the lineup who works counts and can steal a base anyway. If the Twins are really interested in Wilson, then they ought to just sign Punto.
However, there is still Rafael Furcal. When the offseason began, he seemed to be well out of the Twins' league. But that might not be the case anymore. He hasn't turned out to be a Type A or B free agent, thanks to an abnormally poor 2007 and an injury-shortened 2008; the Dodgers did not offer him arbitration. He earned nearly $30 million over the past 2 seasons, so, of course, he doesn't want his next contract to be a huge step down from that. That's probably why he turned down the A's recent offer of $9-10 million/year for 4 years.
But with other teams that were targeting shortstops filling the void with lower-cost options, a large market for Furcal's services doesn't look like it will materialize. That leaves Furcal with a decision to make - accept a long-term deal for less money than he thinks he's worth, or negotiate a short-term deal for good money and hope that his performance earns him a bigger long-term contract in a year or two, while he's still relatively young (he's 31 now).
The Twins should be able to accommodate him in either scenario. If he's willing to sign a 4-year deal for a low 8-figure salary, that's a relative bargain for one of the premier free agent position players. If he'd rather do 1-2 years for $15 million/year, the Twins have the payroll space available for that as well, and the team's risk is lower. Remember, the Twins offered Torii Hunter $15 million/year just 13 months ago. If they were offering Blake $6 million/year, and figuring at least $3 million for Punto, that's already upwards of $9 million they had budgeted for the left side of the infield. With Buscher/Harris slated to earn less the $500,000 each, it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to get to $12 million or so for a long-term deal on Furcal and keep those guys as a 3B platoon, something the Twins have indicated they'd be OK with if they could get a good SS.
Furcal would be quite a good SS. Adding his numbers to the above comparison (again, career averages are per 508 ABs):
Career: .286/.352/.412, 25 2B, 6 3B, 9 HR, 51 BB, 72 K, 28 SB, .966 Fielding %, .834 ZR
3-year: .293/.362/.420, 67 2B, 15 3B, 26 HR, 148 BB, 183 K, 70/92 SB, .969 Fielding %, .838 ZR in 1378 AB
As you can see, Furcal matches Wilson's power and Punto's plate discipline while hitting for a much higher average and stealing far more bases. He gives up a little bit defensively, but not enough to be a huge concern (the Twins could always swap him with Casilla if they think his range is slipping). Furcal is a gigantic upgrade over the status quo and therefore worth spending some money on. He would enable the Twins to send Alexi Casilla to the bottom of the order and give the Twins a proven leadoff hitter should Denard Span get injured or regress. If Furcal would sign for at least 2 years, the likelihood of him leaving the Twins as a type A or B free agent is pretty good, meaning they'd get an extra draft pick or two when he moves on.
The Twins have the means to acquire one of the best available shortstops and substantially improve the team without having to trade any of the young players who were so valuable to their success in 2008. I think they should at least offer Furcal a richer deal than Oakland did. Meanwhile, as long as they're talking to the Pirates in Vegas, why not take a gamble on Andy LaRoche? Bringing him in to play 3rd could really pay off.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Take a Look Ahead
Now that I've had a few days to recover from the 2008 season, I'm ready to take my first look forward to 2009. Many of the blogs I link to have already gotten a good start on arguments for off-season priorities, and I'm happy to join the discussion. My approach will be to establish a baseline for off-season upgrades by answering the question: What kind of team can the Twins produce from players already within their system?
The first step is to assess how many of the players who finished the season with the Twins are likely to be back next year. The answer is extremely good news. Everyone is either under contract or team control for 2009 with the exception of Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes, Eddie Guardado and Adam Everett. Furthermore, the team's payroll obligations fall so short of its capacity (something on the order of $30 million) that the Twins could easily re-sign all of those players if it so desired.
So the 2009 Twins could be exactly the same as the 2008 Twins. Would that make 2009 just as competitive? A lot of folks point to down years in Cleveland and Detroit, the strength of the White Sox, and the strong finish from the Royals as evidence that the division will be much tougher next year. On its face, I'm not sure I buy that. Age is swiftly catching up to the Tigers and Sox, the Indians diminished themselves by trading away CC Sabathia and Casey Blake, and the Royals' young talent is at least half a year behind that of the Twins. I don't expect any of these teams to stand pat this off-season, but free agent acquisitions and trades, no matter how splashy, are no guarantee of success (just ask the Tigers). There are enough weaknesses among the other members of the division that I believe the Twins could win 88 games again with the same players.
That's also because the Twins are young enough that many of their players can be reasonably expected to match or improve upon this year's performance. We've all seen Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer hit for more power than they did in 2008, for example. Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez, each just 22 for most of '08, have plenty of time to make hitting adjustments. And the rotation of Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins, having all pitched deep into September, should be even more settled and stronger down the stretch in 2009.
Certainly we expect a few players to regress or have down years (hello, Matt Guerrier). But, in general, I think it's likely that the Twins will have a lower staff ERA, allow fewer unearned runs, and remain in the top half of the AL in scoring (the BA with RISP will undoubtedly be lower, but the HR numbers should increase, which will make up for a lot of the loss). In other words, I think the Twins could run out the same squad they did in September and come away with more or less the same run differential, which would translate, on average, into about the same number of wins. Will 88 wins be good enough to take the division? Probably not, but it should be enough to keep them in the running.
But the Twins won't be running out the same squad next year. With Pat Neshek and Cuddyer returning from injuries, there are more outfielders and pitchers than spots available. Boof Bonser and Philip Humber are out of options, and will be lost if they don't make the team. And there were a couple of players whose performance doesn't merit bringing them back.
Free Agents
Guardado and Everett should be allowed to move on without a thought. Punto and Reyes deserve a little more consideration.
Shortstop is a position in which the Twins could offer someone a multi-year deal, since their is no heir-apparent to the position in the minors. But the available free agents aren't too impressive for the money they'll be demanding. If the baseline is Punto, that's not a terrible place to start. His career OPS is essentially the same as Everett's - nothing to crow about, of course, but his .320 career OBP makes him likely to be on base more than Gomez, for example. He's got good speed on the bases, and can play above-average defense at 6 positions, including SS. I'd be inclined to offer Punto a 2-year deal for around $3 million a year - then if something better comes along at SS, you've still got one of the league's most versatile bench players.
As for Reyes, anybody who thinks the Twins need to upgrade the bullpen should think twice about letting him walk. Despite missing some time and effectiveness in 2007 when he had some arm troubles, Reyes compiled a 2.14 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 126.1 IP in his 3 seasons with the club. His K/9 was 7.77, and his G/F ratio was about 3/1. Out of 531 total batters faced over his stint with the Twins, 62.7% put the ball on the ground or struck out - the sort of outcomes you're looking for when you bring in a reliever with men on base. Only 26 of 109 H were for extra bases (23.8%), and he allowed only 3 SF. Lefties hit just .202/.272/.266 against him with 3 HR and 63 K in 248 AB (25.4% struck out).
It's true that Craig Breslow and Jose Mijares pitched brilliantly for the Twins this year, but they're each relatively untested. They have just 75.2 MLB IP combined. Breslow was hurt earlier in his career by a high walk total - maybe Rick Anderson sorted that out, or maybe it was just something he was able to hide in 4+ months with the Twins that will resurface next year. Mijares was dynamite in September, but will he be as effective once the scouts catch up to him? Say he has a lousy spring training, and the team decides to give him a little more seasoning in AAA to start the season. Having Reyes on board would give the Twins that luxury. Plus, who says you only need 2 LHP in the bullpen? If 3 of your best pitchers happen to be lefties (as would appear to be the case here), why shouldn't they all make the team?
Lefty specialists can play a long time. Based on his recent track record, I wouldn't be shy about offering Reyes up to a 3-year deal at the going rate for matchup pitchers.
Arbitration Eligibles
More incredibly good news for the Twins - only Matt Guerrier and Jason Kubel are eligible for arbitration this year. This would be the time to sign Kubel to a multi-year deal. While his power numbers began to approach their potential, his BA could still probably improve. He's entering his physical prime, and appears to be over the knee injury that cost him all of 2005 and a big part of 2006. If the Twins wait one more year, and his performance improves again, the price will go up a lot. If they act now, his actual performances should make it possible to get him for something like 3 years, $20 million (+ an option year!).
As for Guerrier, I don't think his abominable finish is indicative of anything more than physical and mental burnout, and that if he were returned to the lower leverage roles he held in earlier seasons he would be effective. But with the emergence of Breslow and Mijares, and the return of Neshek, I'm not sure there's a spot for him. I'd try to trade him before arbitration looms.
Odd Men Out
Bonser and Humber must both make the team or be lost to waivers. That's not going to happen. Each finished the season pretty strongly, but neither has the overall numbers to displace other, more established members of the bullpen. I suppose Humber would have to be considered as a #5 starter should the Twins opt to trade either Perkins or Blackburn, and Bonser could get the nod if they decide not to sign Reyes and Guerrier. There is likely no room for Bobby Korecky in any case. If it were me, I'd make every effort to trade these guys before February.
The outfield is pretty crowded. His big multi-year contract assures us that Cuddyer will be starting in RF. Denard Span had way too good a season at all levels to be denied a spot. Kubel was the 2nd-best power threat on a pretty wimpy team - most of the time, he'll DH. Delmon Young, despite a mostly underwhelming season, made strides in his K/BB rate, and was much more productive in the last 2/3 of the season. And then there's Carlos Gomez, defensive wunderkind, terror on the bases, mess at the plate.
Unless the Twins opt to trade Young, the corner OF positions are set, and there's no way Gomez beats out Span next year. Span was such an effective leadoff hitter, the Twins would be nuts to trade him to make room for Gomez. So the question becomes: Do they put Gomez on the bench as a PR/defensive replacement, or send him to the minors to refine his game? I think the right thing to do is to give him 4-5 ABs every day in AAA. Just as they did with Liriano this year, the Twins need to show Gomez that he's got to produce the goods if he wants a slot on the big club, and that means learning a plate approach that puts the ball on the ground, goes the other way, takes walks, and cuts down on strikeouts. Unless he shows up in spring training with that sort of approach, I'd be inclined to option him down and let Jason Pridie fill the bench role.
As for the rotation, the Twins have 5 starters who are average or better under team control for the next 4 years. They certainly have the option of trading one for something else they'd like to upgrade, but they can't be blamed for wanting to horde them either. That means that starters at the upper levels of the minors, unless they're undeniably awesome, are all expendable. I'd put Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak on that list.
So, looking exclusively within the organization and not fantasizing about any other players who may or may not be available, the best squad the Twins can put together for next spring looks like this:
Starters:
1. Denard Span, CF
2. Alexi Casilla, 2B
3. Joe Mauer, C
4. Justin Morneau, 1B
5. Michael Cuddyer, RF
6. Jason Kubel, DH
7. Delmon Young, LF
8. Brian Buscher, 3B
9. Nick Punto, SS
Bench:
1. Mike Redmond, C
2. Brendan Harris, IF
3. Matt Tolbert, IF
4. Jason Pridie, OF
5. Randy Ruiz, DH/PH
Rotation:
1. Scott Baker, RHP
2. Francisco Liriano, LHP
3. Kevin Slowey, RHP
4. Nick Blackburn, RHP
5. Glen Perkins, LHP
Bullpen
1. Joe Nathan, Closer
2. Pat Neshek, RHP
3. Jose Mijares, LHP
4. Jesse Crain, RHP
5. Dennys Reyes, LHP
6. Craig Breslow, LHP
Cuddyer breaks up the string of Mauer/Morneau/Kubel. The relatively disappointing contributions of Young, Buscher/Harris and Punto are all a bit more palatable when they slide down a slot in the lineup. Pridie and Tolbert provide speed and glove upgrades over the 3Bs and corner OFs. And, despite his high K rate, Ruiz has compiled a strong enough minor league resume to merit at least a platoon/PH role in the Majors. Everybody else performed well in 2008 and obviously deserves a shot at holding their spots in 2009.
With a surplus of about $30 million and Bonser, Humber, Guerrier, Korecky and Duensing all crying out to be traded, there's certainly plenty of capital available for upgrades, and the front office should make an effort to spend it. But they should remember that if they'd held their cards last season, they probably would have had a 90-win team instead of 88. This team can win 88 again in 2009 - that's the baseline. Take it from there.
The first step is to assess how many of the players who finished the season with the Twins are likely to be back next year. The answer is extremely good news. Everyone is either under contract or team control for 2009 with the exception of Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes, Eddie Guardado and Adam Everett. Furthermore, the team's payroll obligations fall so short of its capacity (something on the order of $30 million) that the Twins could easily re-sign all of those players if it so desired.
So the 2009 Twins could be exactly the same as the 2008 Twins. Would that make 2009 just as competitive? A lot of folks point to down years in Cleveland and Detroit, the strength of the White Sox, and the strong finish from the Royals as evidence that the division will be much tougher next year. On its face, I'm not sure I buy that. Age is swiftly catching up to the Tigers and Sox, the Indians diminished themselves by trading away CC Sabathia and Casey Blake, and the Royals' young talent is at least half a year behind that of the Twins. I don't expect any of these teams to stand pat this off-season, but free agent acquisitions and trades, no matter how splashy, are no guarantee of success (just ask the Tigers). There are enough weaknesses among the other members of the division that I believe the Twins could win 88 games again with the same players.
That's also because the Twins are young enough that many of their players can be reasonably expected to match or improve upon this year's performance. We've all seen Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer hit for more power than they did in 2008, for example. Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez, each just 22 for most of '08, have plenty of time to make hitting adjustments. And the rotation of Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins, having all pitched deep into September, should be even more settled and stronger down the stretch in 2009.
Certainly we expect a few players to regress or have down years (hello, Matt Guerrier). But, in general, I think it's likely that the Twins will have a lower staff ERA, allow fewer unearned runs, and remain in the top half of the AL in scoring (the BA with RISP will undoubtedly be lower, but the HR numbers should increase, which will make up for a lot of the loss). In other words, I think the Twins could run out the same squad they did in September and come away with more or less the same run differential, which would translate, on average, into about the same number of wins. Will 88 wins be good enough to take the division? Probably not, but it should be enough to keep them in the running.
But the Twins won't be running out the same squad next year. With Pat Neshek and Cuddyer returning from injuries, there are more outfielders and pitchers than spots available. Boof Bonser and Philip Humber are out of options, and will be lost if they don't make the team. And there were a couple of players whose performance doesn't merit bringing them back.
Free Agents
Guardado and Everett should be allowed to move on without a thought. Punto and Reyes deserve a little more consideration.
Shortstop is a position in which the Twins could offer someone a multi-year deal, since their is no heir-apparent to the position in the minors. But the available free agents aren't too impressive for the money they'll be demanding. If the baseline is Punto, that's not a terrible place to start. His career OPS is essentially the same as Everett's - nothing to crow about, of course, but his .320 career OBP makes him likely to be on base more than Gomez, for example. He's got good speed on the bases, and can play above-average defense at 6 positions, including SS. I'd be inclined to offer Punto a 2-year deal for around $3 million a year - then if something better comes along at SS, you've still got one of the league's most versatile bench players.
As for Reyes, anybody who thinks the Twins need to upgrade the bullpen should think twice about letting him walk. Despite missing some time and effectiveness in 2007 when he had some arm troubles, Reyes compiled a 2.14 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 126.1 IP in his 3 seasons with the club. His K/9 was 7.77, and his G/F ratio was about 3/1. Out of 531 total batters faced over his stint with the Twins, 62.7% put the ball on the ground or struck out - the sort of outcomes you're looking for when you bring in a reliever with men on base. Only 26 of 109 H were for extra bases (23.8%), and he allowed only 3 SF. Lefties hit just .202/.272/.266 against him with 3 HR and 63 K in 248 AB (25.4% struck out).
It's true that Craig Breslow and Jose Mijares pitched brilliantly for the Twins this year, but they're each relatively untested. They have just 75.2 MLB IP combined. Breslow was hurt earlier in his career by a high walk total - maybe Rick Anderson sorted that out, or maybe it was just something he was able to hide in 4+ months with the Twins that will resurface next year. Mijares was dynamite in September, but will he be as effective once the scouts catch up to him? Say he has a lousy spring training, and the team decides to give him a little more seasoning in AAA to start the season. Having Reyes on board would give the Twins that luxury. Plus, who says you only need 2 LHP in the bullpen? If 3 of your best pitchers happen to be lefties (as would appear to be the case here), why shouldn't they all make the team?
Lefty specialists can play a long time. Based on his recent track record, I wouldn't be shy about offering Reyes up to a 3-year deal at the going rate for matchup pitchers.
Arbitration Eligibles
More incredibly good news for the Twins - only Matt Guerrier and Jason Kubel are eligible for arbitration this year. This would be the time to sign Kubel to a multi-year deal. While his power numbers began to approach their potential, his BA could still probably improve. He's entering his physical prime, and appears to be over the knee injury that cost him all of 2005 and a big part of 2006. If the Twins wait one more year, and his performance improves again, the price will go up a lot. If they act now, his actual performances should make it possible to get him for something like 3 years, $20 million (+ an option year!).
As for Guerrier, I don't think his abominable finish is indicative of anything more than physical and mental burnout, and that if he were returned to the lower leverage roles he held in earlier seasons he would be effective. But with the emergence of Breslow and Mijares, and the return of Neshek, I'm not sure there's a spot for him. I'd try to trade him before arbitration looms.
Odd Men Out
Bonser and Humber must both make the team or be lost to waivers. That's not going to happen. Each finished the season pretty strongly, but neither has the overall numbers to displace other, more established members of the bullpen. I suppose Humber would have to be considered as a #5 starter should the Twins opt to trade either Perkins or Blackburn, and Bonser could get the nod if they decide not to sign Reyes and Guerrier. There is likely no room for Bobby Korecky in any case. If it were me, I'd make every effort to trade these guys before February.
The outfield is pretty crowded. His big multi-year contract assures us that Cuddyer will be starting in RF. Denard Span had way too good a season at all levels to be denied a spot. Kubel was the 2nd-best power threat on a pretty wimpy team - most of the time, he'll DH. Delmon Young, despite a mostly underwhelming season, made strides in his K/BB rate, and was much more productive in the last 2/3 of the season. And then there's Carlos Gomez, defensive wunderkind, terror on the bases, mess at the plate.
Unless the Twins opt to trade Young, the corner OF positions are set, and there's no way Gomez beats out Span next year. Span was such an effective leadoff hitter, the Twins would be nuts to trade him to make room for Gomez. So the question becomes: Do they put Gomez on the bench as a PR/defensive replacement, or send him to the minors to refine his game? I think the right thing to do is to give him 4-5 ABs every day in AAA. Just as they did with Liriano this year, the Twins need to show Gomez that he's got to produce the goods if he wants a slot on the big club, and that means learning a plate approach that puts the ball on the ground, goes the other way, takes walks, and cuts down on strikeouts. Unless he shows up in spring training with that sort of approach, I'd be inclined to option him down and let Jason Pridie fill the bench role.
As for the rotation, the Twins have 5 starters who are average or better under team control for the next 4 years. They certainly have the option of trading one for something else they'd like to upgrade, but they can't be blamed for wanting to horde them either. That means that starters at the upper levels of the minors, unless they're undeniably awesome, are all expendable. I'd put Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak on that list.
So, looking exclusively within the organization and not fantasizing about any other players who may or may not be available, the best squad the Twins can put together for next spring looks like this:
Starters:
1. Denard Span, CF
2. Alexi Casilla, 2B
3. Joe Mauer, C
4. Justin Morneau, 1B
5. Michael Cuddyer, RF
6. Jason Kubel, DH
7. Delmon Young, LF
8. Brian Buscher, 3B
9. Nick Punto, SS
Bench:
1. Mike Redmond, C
2. Brendan Harris, IF
3. Matt Tolbert, IF
4. Jason Pridie, OF
5. Randy Ruiz, DH/PH
Rotation:
1. Scott Baker, RHP
2. Francisco Liriano, LHP
3. Kevin Slowey, RHP
4. Nick Blackburn, RHP
5. Glen Perkins, LHP
Bullpen
1. Joe Nathan, Closer
2. Pat Neshek, RHP
3. Jose Mijares, LHP
4. Jesse Crain, RHP
5. Dennys Reyes, LHP
6. Craig Breslow, LHP
Cuddyer breaks up the string of Mauer/Morneau/Kubel. The relatively disappointing contributions of Young, Buscher/Harris and Punto are all a bit more palatable when they slide down a slot in the lineup. Pridie and Tolbert provide speed and glove upgrades over the 3Bs and corner OFs. And, despite his high K rate, Ruiz has compiled a strong enough minor league resume to merit at least a platoon/PH role in the Majors. Everybody else performed well in 2008 and obviously deserves a shot at holding their spots in 2009.
With a surplus of about $30 million and Bonser, Humber, Guerrier, Korecky and Duensing all crying out to be traded, there's certainly plenty of capital available for upgrades, and the front office should make an effort to spend it. But they should remember that if they'd held their cards last season, they probably would have had a 90-win team instead of 88. This team can win 88 again in 2009 - that's the baseline. Take it from there.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Gomez Woulda Had It
Twins 2, Angels 1 (12 innings)
Whew! I don't know about you, but I don't think I could have handled another 12 inning loss. Thank goodness the Angels finally opened the door for a run in the top of that inning, courtesy of our old buddy Torii Hunter. Nick Punto's drive to the wall in right center ticked off his glove for a leadoff triple, setting up Denard Span's game-winning RBI single through a drawn-in infield. Torii actually slightly overran the ball, definitely a play he normally makes - definitely a play that Carlos Gomez makes. Ha!
That gift triple allowed the Twins to redeem a night of magnificent pitching from Scott Baker and the bullpen. For Baker it was the 5th time this season he's allowed 2 or fewer runs in 7 IP without earning a win. As with the Cleveland game in June, his only blemish came in the first inning, when Mark Texeira reached down and practically one-armed a good low, outside fastball over the wall in CF. Not even a mistake by Baker, really. Still, this was the effort the Twins needed to combat Anaheim's ace, John Lackey, and Baker showed himself to be every bit our ace, actually out-doing Lackey's line by one hit in an otherwise almost identical performance. Great way to kick off the road trip.
The bullpen will need to be solid on this trip, and they got off to a good start as well. Matt Guerrier managed to avoid the Oakland series, so he'd had 3 days off to get his game back together. He was asked to pitch the 9th, and escaped allowing only a walk. I considered that to be the positive outing he needed to get his confidence back up, so I was a little alarmed to see him back out there for the 10th. He got himself into immediate trouble, giving up a leadoff single, but the Angels helped him out by popping up their sacrifice attempt. Guerrier still allowed another baserunner in the inning on a walk, but he was able to finish the inning unscathed. Jesse Crain followed with a most expedient 11th inning, needing just 6 pitches to march through the heart of the Angels order. Joe Nathan, as usual, was nails in the 12th.
(By the way, isn't it amazing how much more quickly the game flows along when the plate umpire has a liberal strike zone? Yesterday's 9-inning game took 2:56 to play; tonight the 2 teams needed just 20 minutes more to play 12 innings. Granted, the Angels aren't nearly as patient as the A's, but there were a ton of pitches (namely the first strikes of the 10th to Gomez and Span) that would have been called balls yesterday. Think the games are too long? Tell the umps to call more strikes!)
Torii's gift also absolved the Twins offense of a mostly ineffective night at the plate. John Lackey is among the best pitchers in the league, so scoring on him was never going to be easy. But when you have runners at second and third with nobody out and your 2-4 hitters coming up, you gotta be able to come away with something. If I had to blame one hitter for tonight's low run total, it would have to be Justin Morneau. Three times he came up with RISP with less than 2 outs, and he went K, DP, K (awesome turn by the Angels on the DP in the 8th, though). I'm just so used to seeing him come through in those situations, it was disappointing to see him struggle. If I had to blame 2 hitters, the other would be Alexi Casilla. He came up in the 8th and 10th with first base open and less than two outs and failed to put the ball in play. In the 8th, he flailed at a pitch over his head. Obviously, his rehab assignment wasn't long enough to get his plate discipline back up to the level it had been.
Anyway, it was a very important win for the Twins. They need to at least split this series in order to get this monster road trip off to a good start, and now they only need to win 1 of the next 3 in order to accomplish that. Also, they've moved within 0.5 games of the idle White Sox, and tied the Red Sox for the Wild Card lead. Keep up the good work, fellas!
Whew! I don't know about you, but I don't think I could have handled another 12 inning loss. Thank goodness the Angels finally opened the door for a run in the top of that inning, courtesy of our old buddy Torii Hunter. Nick Punto's drive to the wall in right center ticked off his glove for a leadoff triple, setting up Denard Span's game-winning RBI single through a drawn-in infield. Torii actually slightly overran the ball, definitely a play he normally makes - definitely a play that Carlos Gomez makes. Ha!
That gift triple allowed the Twins to redeem a night of magnificent pitching from Scott Baker and the bullpen. For Baker it was the 5th time this season he's allowed 2 or fewer runs in 7 IP without earning a win. As with the Cleveland game in June, his only blemish came in the first inning, when Mark Texeira reached down and practically one-armed a good low, outside fastball over the wall in CF. Not even a mistake by Baker, really. Still, this was the effort the Twins needed to combat Anaheim's ace, John Lackey, and Baker showed himself to be every bit our ace, actually out-doing Lackey's line by one hit in an otherwise almost identical performance. Great way to kick off the road trip.
The bullpen will need to be solid on this trip, and they got off to a good start as well. Matt Guerrier managed to avoid the Oakland series, so he'd had 3 days off to get his game back together. He was asked to pitch the 9th, and escaped allowing only a walk. I considered that to be the positive outing he needed to get his confidence back up, so I was a little alarmed to see him back out there for the 10th. He got himself into immediate trouble, giving up a leadoff single, but the Angels helped him out by popping up their sacrifice attempt. Guerrier still allowed another baserunner in the inning on a walk, but he was able to finish the inning unscathed. Jesse Crain followed with a most expedient 11th inning, needing just 6 pitches to march through the heart of the Angels order. Joe Nathan, as usual, was nails in the 12th.
(By the way, isn't it amazing how much more quickly the game flows along when the plate umpire has a liberal strike zone? Yesterday's 9-inning game took 2:56 to play; tonight the 2 teams needed just 20 minutes more to play 12 innings. Granted, the Angels aren't nearly as patient as the A's, but there were a ton of pitches (namely the first strikes of the 10th to Gomez and Span) that would have been called balls yesterday. Think the games are too long? Tell the umps to call more strikes!)
Torii's gift also absolved the Twins offense of a mostly ineffective night at the plate. John Lackey is among the best pitchers in the league, so scoring on him was never going to be easy. But when you have runners at second and third with nobody out and your 2-4 hitters coming up, you gotta be able to come away with something. If I had to blame one hitter for tonight's low run total, it would have to be Justin Morneau. Three times he came up with RISP with less than 2 outs, and he went K, DP, K (awesome turn by the Angels on the DP in the 8th, though). I'm just so used to seeing him come through in those situations, it was disappointing to see him struggle. If I had to blame 2 hitters, the other would be Alexi Casilla. He came up in the 8th and 10th with first base open and less than two outs and failed to put the ball in play. In the 8th, he flailed at a pitch over his head. Obviously, his rehab assignment wasn't long enough to get his plate discipline back up to the level it had been.
Anyway, it was a very important win for the Twins. They need to at least split this series in order to get this monster road trip off to a good start, and now they only need to win 1 of the next 3 in order to accomplish that. Also, they've moved within 0.5 games of the idle White Sox, and tied the Red Sox for the Wild Card lead. Keep up the good work, fellas!
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Back from the Brink
Twins 7, Tigers 6 (11 innings)
Baby's still not sleeping through the night (therefore, Daddy's not sleeping through the night), but that's not going to stop me from giving this game its due.
Remember this one. This afternoon's tilt was an epic, 11-inning siege. In the course of its nearly 4 hour duration, the Twins displayed most of their weaknesses and strengths, used most of the players on their bench and bullpen, and overcame a huge, late-inning deficit despite having one of their worst games hitting with RISP. Justin Morneau, Denard Span, Nick Punto and a beleaguered 'pen combined to turn a potentially dispiriting, 0-4 start to the last trip before the break into an inspiring, full-team win that should relax everybody for the remaining 3 games this weekend. We won't know for many weeks whether this game turns out to be a turning point, but it will at least give the Twins something to show for the efforts they've made on the road this week.
For most of the afternoon, it wasn't working. Kevin Slowey made no effort to pitch inside to the Tigers, so they leaned out over the plate and drove his pitches into the gaps. His line was hurt by a marginal walk to Ramon Santiago in the 3rd (a 3-2 pitch that looked better than many of the called strikes Kenny Rogers was getting) - Santiago came home on an opposite-field double by Curtis Granderson. The would-be second out of the 4th, a diving stop by Punto on a sharp grounder in the hole off the bat of Marcus Thames, was thrown away when Punto rushed his throw just a bit. The official scorer gave Thames credit for a hit, even though an on-target throw would have clearly gotten him by a step. Still, Slowey was not effective, and will hopefully return to working both sides of the plate after the break.
For the second day in a row, the Twins' starter was knocked out before the end of the 5th inning. Craig Breslow was first out of the 'pen, and worked 1.1 scoreless innings despite allowing 2 H and 2 BB, thanks to a CS. Jesse Crain and Dennys Reyes were next, combining for 3 IP, H, 3 K - just like they're supposed to do. Irritated bloggers finally got their wish when Joe Nathan was brought into a tie game in the 9th. He nearly blew it by walking the first 2 batters and throwing a WP, but he was able to strike out the last 2 batters he faced with the bases loaded to avoid the loss. Matt Guerrier followed with 2 IP, H, K - a nice recovery from his meltdown in Fenway on Tuesday night. Altogether, the Twins bullpen threw 7.1 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 5 BB, 7 K - too many walks, but a redeeming effort for a group that had been demolished in Boston.
Offensively, Justin Morneau, Nick Punto and Denard Span did everything they could to set the table. Unfortunately, they were just far enough apart in the batting order to not be able to work together. In between them were Carlos Gomez (0-4, K), Alexi Casilla (1-5), Mike Redmond (0-4), Craig Monroe (0-3, BB) and Mike Lamb (0-2), Delmon Young (0-6) and Brendan Harris (1-5, 2B). The unsustainable nature of the Twins remarkable success with RISP was on display, as the Twins began inning after inning with men at second or third, but failed to collect the big hit that could bring them back into the game. They ran themselves out of an inning, Punto getting thrown out at the plate and Span at 3rd trying to steal. Overall, the Twins went 1-15 with RISP.
And yet, they scored 7 runs. I've been saying that raising the team's OBP while continuing to fill the lineup with contact hitters would enable the Twins to manufacture some runs even when the base hits dry up. The Twins were pretty slow to get that going today (except for Gomez' RBI ground out in the 3rd), wasting Morneau's leadoff double in the 4th, for example. By the end of the game, though, the productive outs started to plate some runs. Casilla hit a SF with runners at the corners in the 7th. Morneau led off the 8th with another double (ohhhhh so close to being a HR), and this time Monroe and Young did their jobs, hitting ground balls behind him to bring in the 4th run.
Then came the 9th, when Punto and Span, improbably, began yet another inning by both reaching. RF Matt Joyce gave the Twins the break they needed when he overran Span's single, allowing Punto to score and Span to reach third. Then Gardy, whose lineup choices I felt were going to be responsible for the Twins losing the game, made a series of terrific moves. He pinch-hit Joe Mauer for Gomez, and Mauer delivered the game-tying SF. He had Kubel hit for Redmond, and he delivered a single. After Morneau walked, Gardy sent Lamb in to pinch-hit for Monroe, and only a sterling defensive play from 2B Placido Polanco prevented the Twins from taking the lead right there. (Say what you want about the production of Mike Lamb - perhaps his days with the Twins are numbered - he seems to hit into a lot of highlight defensive plays.)
Punto and Span reached again with 2 out in the 10th, but Span stole second when they stopped holding him on, opening up first base and taking the bat out of Joe Mauer's hands. Casilla grounded out to end the threat. That left it for Justin Morneau to cap his career day, lining an 0-1 pitch over the wall in RF for his 14th HR and the win.
There was so much to process about this game, but I think the important thing is this: the 2008 Twins can find a way to win, even on the road, even when they aren't at their best. There is a mental/psychological component to baseball that can enhance or diminish a player's performance on the field - in most cases, the Twins are being enhanced. They may not be the best team in the league, they may not be true contenders, but they're ahead of where we thought they'd be this year, and they're definitely a team a fan can be proud of.
Baby's still not sleeping through the night (therefore, Daddy's not sleeping through the night), but that's not going to stop me from giving this game its due.
Remember this one. This afternoon's tilt was an epic, 11-inning siege. In the course of its nearly 4 hour duration, the Twins displayed most of their weaknesses and strengths, used most of the players on their bench and bullpen, and overcame a huge, late-inning deficit despite having one of their worst games hitting with RISP. Justin Morneau, Denard Span, Nick Punto and a beleaguered 'pen combined to turn a potentially dispiriting, 0-4 start to the last trip before the break into an inspiring, full-team win that should relax everybody for the remaining 3 games this weekend. We won't know for many weeks whether this game turns out to be a turning point, but it will at least give the Twins something to show for the efforts they've made on the road this week.
For most of the afternoon, it wasn't working. Kevin Slowey made no effort to pitch inside to the Tigers, so they leaned out over the plate and drove his pitches into the gaps. His line was hurt by a marginal walk to Ramon Santiago in the 3rd (a 3-2 pitch that looked better than many of the called strikes Kenny Rogers was getting) - Santiago came home on an opposite-field double by Curtis Granderson. The would-be second out of the 4th, a diving stop by Punto on a sharp grounder in the hole off the bat of Marcus Thames, was thrown away when Punto rushed his throw just a bit. The official scorer gave Thames credit for a hit, even though an on-target throw would have clearly gotten him by a step. Still, Slowey was not effective, and will hopefully return to working both sides of the plate after the break.
For the second day in a row, the Twins' starter was knocked out before the end of the 5th inning. Craig Breslow was first out of the 'pen, and worked 1.1 scoreless innings despite allowing 2 H and 2 BB, thanks to a CS. Jesse Crain and Dennys Reyes were next, combining for 3 IP, H, 3 K - just like they're supposed to do. Irritated bloggers finally got their wish when Joe Nathan was brought into a tie game in the 9th. He nearly blew it by walking the first 2 batters and throwing a WP, but he was able to strike out the last 2 batters he faced with the bases loaded to avoid the loss. Matt Guerrier followed with 2 IP, H, K - a nice recovery from his meltdown in Fenway on Tuesday night. Altogether, the Twins bullpen threw 7.1 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 5 BB, 7 K - too many walks, but a redeeming effort for a group that had been demolished in Boston.
Offensively, Justin Morneau, Nick Punto and Denard Span did everything they could to set the table. Unfortunately, they were just far enough apart in the batting order to not be able to work together. In between them were Carlos Gomez (0-4, K), Alexi Casilla (1-5), Mike Redmond (0-4), Craig Monroe (0-3, BB) and Mike Lamb (0-2), Delmon Young (0-6) and Brendan Harris (1-5, 2B). The unsustainable nature of the Twins remarkable success with RISP was on display, as the Twins began inning after inning with men at second or third, but failed to collect the big hit that could bring them back into the game. They ran themselves out of an inning, Punto getting thrown out at the plate and Span at 3rd trying to steal. Overall, the Twins went 1-15 with RISP.
And yet, they scored 7 runs. I've been saying that raising the team's OBP while continuing to fill the lineup with contact hitters would enable the Twins to manufacture some runs even when the base hits dry up. The Twins were pretty slow to get that going today (except for Gomez' RBI ground out in the 3rd), wasting Morneau's leadoff double in the 4th, for example. By the end of the game, though, the productive outs started to plate some runs. Casilla hit a SF with runners at the corners in the 7th. Morneau led off the 8th with another double (ohhhhh so close to being a HR), and this time Monroe and Young did their jobs, hitting ground balls behind him to bring in the 4th run.
Then came the 9th, when Punto and Span, improbably, began yet another inning by both reaching. RF Matt Joyce gave the Twins the break they needed when he overran Span's single, allowing Punto to score and Span to reach third. Then Gardy, whose lineup choices I felt were going to be responsible for the Twins losing the game, made a series of terrific moves. He pinch-hit Joe Mauer for Gomez, and Mauer delivered the game-tying SF. He had Kubel hit for Redmond, and he delivered a single. After Morneau walked, Gardy sent Lamb in to pinch-hit for Monroe, and only a sterling defensive play from 2B Placido Polanco prevented the Twins from taking the lead right there. (Say what you want about the production of Mike Lamb - perhaps his days with the Twins are numbered - he seems to hit into a lot of highlight defensive plays.)
Punto and Span reached again with 2 out in the 10th, but Span stole second when they stopped holding him on, opening up first base and taking the bat out of Joe Mauer's hands. Casilla grounded out to end the threat. That left it for Justin Morneau to cap his career day, lining an 0-1 pitch over the wall in RF for his 14th HR and the win.
There was so much to process about this game, but I think the important thing is this: the 2008 Twins can find a way to win, even on the road, even when they aren't at their best. There is a mental/psychological component to baseball that can enhance or diminish a player's performance on the field - in most cases, the Twins are being enhanced. They may not be the best team in the league, they may not be true contenders, but they're ahead of where we thought they'd be this year, and they're definitely a team a fan can be proud of.
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