Nathan's Elbow and Other Developments

The news on Joe Nathan's elbow is not good: he's got a significant tear in his UCL and will most likely need Tommy John surgery, meaning he'll be lost to the Twins for the 2010 season. Obviously, it's a huge loss for the Twins to be without their All-Star closer, who has been one of the most consistently excellent at his position since coming to the Twins in 2004. However, all is not lost.

Much has been written about how the role of closer has become overrated, and how just about any competent pitcher should be able to succeed most of the time when asked to hold a lead of up to 3 runs for only 1 inning. For as good as Nathan was last year, he still blew 5 saves (not including the one in the playoffs). And that's normal. Look down the list of the top closers last year, and you'll see that, despite sparkling ERAs and WHIPs and K/9s, only a handful got through the season with 3 or fewer blown saves. And the one who managed to have the fewest blown saves? Detroit's Fernando Rodney, he of the 4.40 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 7.3 K/9. Would I prefer to have a guy in the role who I could basically pencil in for an ERA under 2.50 and better than 9.0 K/9? Of course. But lacking that doesn't mean the Twins will lose any more games than they would have with Nathan.

The guy is 35 this year. Closers often age very well, and he's in fantastic shape, but a decline has to come sooner or later. There's no guarantee that Nathan would have been as effective this year as he has been in the past.

The other reason I'm not too broken up about this is that the Twins did set themselves up with a very deep bullpen this year. With Nathan set to close and Duensing or Perkins probably picking up the 7th spot in the 'pen as the long reliever, the Twins still had Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jesse Crain and Clay Condrey for middle relief. That's enough depth to stash Pat Neshek in the minors for awhile. Now, he will have to prove that he's recovered enough of his stuff and command to break camp with the team. If that breaks right for the Twins, I don't think that the non-save situation bullpen is going to be any weaker, even though one of the setup guys will have to move into the Closer role.

In addition, the Twins will have 3 good setup prospects at AAA: Anthony Slama, Rob Delaney and Alex Burnett. And Kyle Waldrop and recent high draft picks Carlos Gutierrez, Billy Bullock, Matt Bashore and Ben Tootle all have the potential to scoot through the system and be options late in the season. At this point, these prospects look to have the ability to eventually meet or exceed the production of some of the present members of the Twins' 'pen. So, if something goes awry with the bullpen this season, the Twins won't have to call up someone with mediocre stuff like Bobby Keppel.

The long-term implications of this seem bigger to me. I was already preparing to think of trading Nathan next offseason, particularly if one or more of the prospects I mentioned progress up to the big leagues. The way the last couple of offseasons have gone, Type A free agents haven't necessarily been signed, especially relievers. Maybe Nathan would be a special case, but he'd be heading into his late 30's by the time his Twins contract is up, and there's no guarantee that another team would want to give up 2 high draft picks for Nathan at that stage of his career. Would he opt for arbitration with the Twins? Maybe, and that would probably keep him at around $12M for 2013. Will there be room in the payroll to give that much money to a 38-year-old Joe Nathan, when the Twins will have so many other cheap relievers in their prime?

Since they can't count on getting much value for him should he depart as a free agent, the best strategy for the team would probably have been to trade Nathan after this year, saving $23.75M while gaining 2-3 quality prospects. Now that's out the window. I can't see another team giving up good prospects for a guy coming off TJS. The Twins will have to see what Nathan can give them in 2011. If that creates payroll problems, they'll have to look to unload one of the other veterans.

Blackburn's Contract

I've been working on a separate post about this, but it's expanded itself into an attempt to make a case for why Blackburn is a better pitcher than his numbers indicate. That's proving to be sort of difficult to compile. Lest the news get too stale, let me just say that I think the contract is pretty reasonable. 200 IP of average-ish pitching is certainly worth $3.5M/year. Look at what the Twins are paying for Carl Pavano. Maybe he'll be a little better than average. But how good a bet is he to make 200 IP?

Pitchers like Blackburn frequently make way more than that in free agency and arbitration. So he'll be an attractive trade candidate should the Twins develop better options (like Kyle Gibson). Not a huge risk for a guy who has been remarkably consistent through his first 2 full seasons.

The First Week of Grapefruit Games

Carl Pavano became the first Twins pitcher I projected to make the opening day roster to allow an ER this spring. Even with his semi-rough outing (and Delmon Young could have saved him a couple of runs in the first had he been able to make a sliding catch), those 12 pitchers have a 0.84 ERA and 0.90 WHIP through 32.1 IP with 9 BB, 22 K and 0 HR allowed. We've also seen 2 perfect IP from Anthony Slama with 3 K.

The hitting also portends well. In 2 games so far, the Twins' (mostly) regular lineup has demolished elite pitchers Jon Lester and Adam Wainwright to the tune of 8 ER in 3 IP. They've also been getting some nice AB from some of the prospects who might be needed depending on who hits the DL over the course of the season - guys like Danny Valencia, Brock Peterson, Wilson Ramos and Ben Revere.

Shout Out from the Geek

Finally, I got a nice mention for a comment I recently left the Twins Geek. Thanks, Geek. That means a lot coming from you. You know, I write like that on this blog all the time. And I don't stop at "preposterous" - I've been known to use "auspicious" and "asinine" too.

Don't be a stranger!

Little Changes

Cubs 3, Twins 2
Twins 8, Pirates 2
Pirates 8, Twins 2
Twins 5, Pirates 1

I'm pretty satisfied with how things have gone since Saturday. The Twins have only allowed 14 R over the past 4 games, more than half of them in last night's loss. As for the other loss, the lineup was without Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer and Joe Crede, so it's understandable that they were stymied by a quality pitcher like Ted Lilly. My only real regret is that I dropped Cuddyer from my fantasy team on Sunday night pending a waiver pickup of Russell Martin, who can't possibly continue to slump as badly as he has the rest of the season. At the time I made the claim, it looked likely that Cuddyer would go on the DL, so no big loss. By the time it went through, however, Cuddyer had his cortisone shot and it was Span who hit the DL. Naturally, since losing him from my roster on Wednesday, Cuddyer has gone 4 for 6 with 2 walks, a HR and a 3B. Oh well.

Had I been able to muster the energy to write something on Monday, it would have been about how the Twins needed to get Jesse Crain off of the 25-man roster. Luckily, someone in the front office is a step ahead of me, for once, and Crain was sent to Rochester to make room for Glen Perkins to come off the DL. AAA is definitely the best place to find out whether Crain can put himself back together. He was killing the Twins, having allowed 5 ER on 10 H and 5 BB over his last 6 appearances (4.1 IP).

I share Gardy's assessment that Wednesday night was actually a pretty good start for Liriano. I'm especially pleased by the 6/1 K/BB ratio. He's still got to be better with men on base, but he's headed in the right direction.

Nick Blackburn found himself just about exactly where he was last Thursday afternoon, cruising into the 8th inning with a 3-0 lead. While he'd been fortunate for most of the first 7 IP last week to have some hard-hit balls find Twins' gloves, the 4 H he allowed through the first 7 IP today were all bloopers and bleeders - hardly anything was hit hard. He walked one in the 8th, then came out to a 5-0 9th inning lead thanks to Brian Buscher's 2nd HR (great to see him swing assertively at a hittable fastball!). Blackburn was not as effective in the last inning, but his luck held as the first 2 batters lined out to Crede and Nick Punto was able to end the game on a diving stop in the hole. In between, the Pirates were able to get a 2-out run on a 2B and RBI single. A fine performance for Blackburn's first CG win.

By the way, the two 2B Blackburn allowed both probably would have been caught by Span - Cuddyer's limited range was really on display today, though he certainly made up for it at the plate. This reminds me of the other little change I was happy to see today: Cuddyer hitting ahead of Crede. Cuddy's got .056 points of OBP on Crede - that alone makes the move a good decision. Never mind that he's also topping Crede in BA and SLG%, and they're now tied in HR.

Things are beginning to come together for the Twins - I can't wait to see what the offense can do once Span returns next week.

25 Good Innings

Twins 11, Mariners 0
Twins 9, Mariners 6
Mariners 5, Twins 3

The Twins came within 2 innings of a weekend sweep in which they never trailed - quite a departure from the first couple weeks of the season. Some observations from the series:

Last season I predicted that Joe Mauer would have a breakout year in the HR department because, with his legs back under him, all those warning track outs to left-center would have just enough extra on them to carry into the seats. It didn't happen in 2008, but so far he has 3 HR in his first 33 AB of 2009, all of them just over the wall in left-center. Mauer has been all-around awesome since coming off the DL. He'll cool off, of course, but there's no reason to think that this can't be his best ever OPS season. Provided he stays healthy, of course.

Right behind him is Justin Morneau, who twice followed Mauer's HR to left with blasts to RF, and came very close to having a 3rd straight game with a HR when his 3rd-inning drive on Sunday hit the top corner of the baggie in deep right-center. (That makes 2 balls from Morneau so far this season that would have been out just about everywhere but the Metrodome.)

As well as those two are swinging, I think it's time to move Cuddyer up in the order, if not between them, then certainly right after Morneau. For Cuddyer, the signal of whether or not he's seeing the ball well is his walk rate, which has been through the roof in recent weeks.

Scott Baker finally put it all together. He was so close to that level in his previous start - his failure last Sunday was in allowing all his hits consecutively - that I feel pretty confident that he's ready to resume his position as the Twins most consistent starter.

Did Francisco Liriano's outing on Saturday remind anybody of Baker's the previous week? He only made it once through the order without a hit, but it still fell apart awfully quickly. Thank goodness he got plenty of run support.

Nick Blackburn has, for the most part, been pretty good about following a poor start with a good one. That was the case again on Sunday, when he pitched his best all-around game of the season, allowing only 5 H and 1 BB in 7 IP with 6 K - nearly matching Baker's outing. I was impressed with how Blackburn was able to pitch out of a runners at the corners with no out jam early in the game.

With Blackburn at 99 pitches and lefties Ichiro and Griffey Jr. due up in the 8th, it made sense to go to the LHP 8th inning guy, Jose Mijares. He was scored upon for the second straight outing, in this case on a game-tying HR to Griffey. Griffey, by the way, is slugging .611 vs. the Twins this year, and just .317 vs. everybody else. Jesse Crain came on and failed to retire a batter, including sending a run home on a WP. The first batter he faced was Adrian Beltre. He's sluggling .680 vs. the Twins, but just .243 vs. everyone else. So what does everybody else know that the Twins pitchers don't?

Sunday was a rare example of a game in which the team that threw drastically more pitches managed to win. I love that the Twins, having chased Seattle's starters early on in the first two games of the series, were able to grind Erik Bedard out of the game with 110 pitches thrown in just 4.2 IP. It's a credit to Bedard's abilities that he was able to limit the damage to just 2 runs. Anyway, that kind of patient approach is going to pay dividends if the Twins will keep it up in future games.

Beginnings of Big Innings

Twins 7, Tigers 2
Tigers 9, Twins 0
Each team won a game in this short series, thanks mainly to one unruly, bat-around inning.

The Twins took game 1 on the strength of a 5-run 7th, turning a pitcher's duel into a solid Twins lead in the span of 4 hitters. Justin Morneau led off with a grounder through the right side. The key pitch of the game came to the next batter, Jason Kubel. With the count 2-2, Tigers starter Edwin Jackson delivered a fastball that narrowly missed the outside corner for ball 3. Another umpire might have called Kubel out there, and I wouldn't have complained if he had. The next three pitches went: ball 4, RBI 2B, 2-run 3B, and Mr. Jackson was headed for the shower, his QS start turned into 5 ER and a loss - exactly what had happened to Scott Baker the day before.

Brandon Lyon came in and threw 2 pitches: the first hit Delmon Young, the second was bunted by Nick Punto in an attempted safety squeeze. I don't think much of Miguel Cabrera as a defender, but he made a good play on the bunt, charging toward the mound and throwing a strike to the plate to get Cuddyer by a step. If Cabrera doesn't come up with that ball, I think Punto probably has an infield hit.

A LHP came in, and Denard Span picked up his 2nd IF hit of the game thanks to a generous scoring ruling on a ball that Adam Everett probably should have fielded. (I was delighted to see Span swing at the 2-strike pitch that resulted in his first IF hit leading off the game - that's the pitch that he has so often taken for strike 3. Even though it sawed him off, I'm glad to see him recognize that it's a pitch he needs to offer at.) Alexi Casilla finally had something drop in, and Punto's astute read on the flight of the ball/positioning of LF Carlos Guillen enabled him to score from 2nd just a few feet behind Young coming in from 3rd. Joe Mauer and Morneau were retired, but the game was all but out of reach, with Francisco Liriano dealing into the 8th inning.

Liriano may still be a bit short of his old velocity, but his stuff looks terrific to me. Everything he threw was breaking sharply downward. He struck out 9 in 7.1 IP and allowed only 4 H, though 1 of those was a HR. I hope everyone can recognize the difference between the pitch that resulted in the HR hit by Cabrera and those that Scott Baker has given up this year. Liriano threw him a pitch down and in that Cabrera simply golfed out of the park - nothing a pitcher can do about that.

For the Tigers tonight, the 2nd-inning damage was all done after 2 were out. Nick Blackburn, who had issued a 4-pitch walk to the hacktastic Placido Polanco in the 1st, managed to issue another to catcher Gerald Laird, who was 1 for his last 21 coming into the game. Obviously a night of poor command for Blackburn - the 0-2 pitch to Clete Thomas following the Polanco BB was up and over the plate, right on the heels of a pitch down and away that had resulted in a swing and a miss. He continued to miss his spots, though the Tigers had the benefit of both exquisite placement of their hits and ugly defense from the Twins.

After Laird's BB, Ramon Santiago drove him in with an RBI double into the RF corner on a liner that was just out of Morneau's reach. Casilla looked unprepared to throw home when he received Michael Cuddyer's throw from the wall. Then Josh Anderson blooped a ball into LF just out of Young's reach for an RBI single; the ball bounced past Young for an error allowing Anderson to go to 2nd. Polanco hit a grounder up the middle that Casilla could only knock down for what I thought was an exceedingly tough error, particularly when compared to the error that Everett avoided the previous night. (The error on Joe Crede was pretty tough, too.) Then Thomas hit a ball just close enough in front of Cuddyer to induce a dive; it got past him to the wall for a 2-run 3B.

With Cabrera coming up and 2 bases open, I would have expected the Twins to pitch around him, if not put him on. After all, he's hitting about .400, and the next batter, Curtis Granderson, was down around .260. Your chances are better with Granderson, even if he is a lefty. But they pitched to Cabrera, and he promptly ripped an RBI single to left. Granderson was retired for the final out of the inning.

It felt like the Twins were sleep-walking through this game. Except for Kubel - maybe it helped that he didn't have to play in the field. R.A. Dickey finally had a scoreless outing, Jesse Crain made a solid return to the mound, and Craig Breslow only walked 1 guy. Pretty good night for the bullpen, I guess.

On to Baltimore...

Notes on the Rays Series

Rays 7, Twins 1
Twins 4, Rays 3
Twins 8, Rays 3
Though it wasn't quite a QS, this was a huge step forward for Scott Baker. His command was much better, as he struck out 7 in 6 IP and, most importantly, kept the ball in the yard. He also had a string of 10 straight batters retired from the end of the 1st through the 4th. The XBH he allowed with 2 out in the first weren't great pitches, but the Evan Longoria 2B was very nearly foul and Carlos Pena's 3B was nearly caught by Cuddyer at the wall. The 2 runs allowed in the 5th, despite a WP and a PB, really just came down to: Alexi Casilla isn't quite tall enough and 2 bloopers around a BB. Baker has moved out of Baker 2006 territory and into the realm of Francisco Liriano this April, i.e. pitching OK overall, but not doing a very good job of scattering/stranding baserunners.

Speaking of Liriano, he was terrific until the 6th inning. His biggest trouble the last couple of starts has been retiring the leadoff man. He was able to work around it until the 6th, but putting the speedy guys on in front of the boppers is not a recipe for success. It's too bad he couldn't quite get through the 7th (really, Casilla should be 2 inches taller), but I love seeing him out there after the 6th with the Twins in the game.

The key to the Rays rally in the 6th was BJ Upton stealing 2nd despite being picked off. We all know that Justin Morneau has had a tendency to wear down over the course of the season, so these early days off from the field are important. But I miss him when he's not out there defensively. Cuddyer made some mistakes at 1st on Morneau's first day off in Chicago. Brian Buscher didn't exactly make a mistake in this game, it's just that he's a very deliberate player. You can see it in his ABs - it helps him avoid expanding the strike zone, but it also makes him just a little bit late on fastballs he should be attacking. On the pickoff play with Upton, he was just a smidge too slow getting the ball out of his glove. Make that play, and Longoria is batting with 2 out and the bases empty.

I have to compliment Buscher on the way he took that RBI HBP in the 6th. He barely flinched. That's the sign of someone who understood the situation and was mentally prepared to get hit.

Great work by Jose Mijares striking out the middle of the Rays' order after allowing a leadoff walk to Carl Crawford. I suspect he's seen the last of Rochester.

Joe Nathan is going to have to concentrate on throwing his first fastball down - that's twice now he's been taken deep on the first pitch of his outing.

Nick Blackburn was at his best on Wednesday night. Not just because he got 11 ground ball outs to 7 fly balls. Not just because he mixed his pitches effectively. He did a fine job of damage control in the 2 innings where the Rays were able to string some hits together, getting Evan Longoria twice with RISP. The only walk he allowed came with 2 RISP to a LH hitter with 2 out in the 7th. Because he pitches to contact, some grounders will sneak through, and some fly balls will drop in, but he was able to stay away from the fat part of the bat enough to limit the Rays to only 1 XBH.

As I predicted, Gardy has been sticking with Blackburn longer this year. He certainly had justification to make a pitching change as the 7th inning jam unfolded. But he stuck with his starter, and Blackburn held the Rays to just 1 run in the inning. That confidence in the starters is going to pay dividends down the road.

When the offense is scuffling to score runs, isn't it wonderful when the other team spots you a 4-run lead in the 1st inning? That rally went ground ball single, IF single chopped over 3B, BB, uncaught popup for a run, WP for a run, IF hit for a run, WP for a run. Almost as many runs as the Twins had mustered in the first 2 games of the series, all thanks to wildness from the pitcher and inefficient defense.

If Justin Morneau's HR total winds up a little bit lower than you were hoping at the end of the season, remember his 4th inning RBI double. That was within about a foot of being a HR, high off the baggie in right-center field. That's a HR in most other parks - certainly at the new Yankee Stadium.

Blackburn Owns Cleveland

Twins 5, Indians 1
As bad as things looked in Boston on Wednesday, there was reason to hopeful about tonight. Fausto Carmona was a pain in the butt in 2007, but he hasn't been nearly as good since. More importantly, Nick Blackburn did his best work against Cleveland last season, averaging nearly 7 IP over 4 starts with a 1.30 ERA.

Blackburn was a little shaky through the first 12 hitters, walking the tightrope for 3 innings as the Indians collected 4 H and lined out several times. (Special mention here for Delmon Young doing something right on defense, making a nice sliding catch of Victor Martinez' sinking liner toward the LF corner. If that ball gets down, we've got trouble.) After that, though, Blackburn did a much better job of mixing his pitches. He allowed just 2 H over the next 4 IP, one of which was promptly erased when Grady Sizemore was thrown out trying to stretch his bloop single into a double.

For all his early struggles, Blackburn has still managed to average just over 6 IP for his 4 starts this year, taking the Twins deep into the game with a chance to win. His last 2 outings combine for 13.1 IP, 14 H, 2 BB and 7 K - about the sort of control and K-rate I expected from him coming into the season. Looks like he'll be fine.

I found it interesting that Gardy elected to use Jose Mijares and Joe Nathan for the 8th and 9th innings with a 4-run lead. Those are the guys you'd expect to see utilized in tighter situations. Nathan was the only one who didn't pitch in Boston, so he certainly needed the work. But I think Gardy just didn't feel confident that any of his other relievers could protect the lead. I can't blame him.

The offense employed its typical singles parade, but got some big 2-out hits with RISP from Jason Kubel, Joe Crede, and Jose Morales. 2-4 with a 2B and RBI is the sort of line we're used to getting from our catcher. Denard Span kept his OBP above .400, and Justin Morneau drove in runs with a groundout and his 4th HR, putting him almost back on his RBI pace from last season.

Minor League Notes
Rob Delaney threw another 1.2 scoreless IP with 3 K. For the season, he's now at 12.1 IP, 10 H, 0 BB and 18 K. In case it isn't obvious why I'm so fixated on him and Anthony Slama, let me compare their career minor league numbers:

Delaney: 1.84 ERA, 6.86 H/9, 0.53 HR/9, 1.35 BB/9, 9.81 K/9, 0.91 WHIP
Slama: 1.15 ERA, 5.38 H/9, 0.00 HR/9(!), 2.95 BB/9, 14.03 K/9, 0.92 WHIP

to this guy since 2004:

Nathan: 1.82 ERA, 5.87 H/9, 0.53 HR/9, 2.50 BB/9, 11.02 K/9, 0.93 WHIP

See where this is going? If Delaney and Slama can carry their success up to the Majors, the Twins will essentially have 2 extra Joe Nathans in the bullpen. That will be a fuzzy feeling.

Also, there's this hot catching prospect in A+ Fort Myers named Joe Mauer. He went 2-4 with a 2B and 2 RBI. I know, nothing Morales couldn't do, but I think he ought to get a shot with the Twins pretty soon.

White Wash

White Sox 8, Twins 0
White Sox 6, Twins 1
First the good news. Umm...

Denard Span looks to be back to his 2008 form. He drew 3 BB on Saturday, and looked comfy at the plate vs. LHP Mark Buehrle on Sunday, hitting a couple of balls very hard despite collecting no hits.

Nick Punto has a nice little OBP going this week. I like his glove in the #9 spot just fine, especially when he's drawing walks here and there.

Francisco Liriano and Nick Blackburn were both really good for 4 IP. Blackburn did a better job of pitching after his defense had committed an error than he often did in that situation last year. Gardy let him start the 7th inning even though he'd thrown around 90 pitches coming into the inning. That's a sign that Blackburn will get a chance to pitch deeper into games than he did last year.

Matt Guerrier came into an inning with men on base and didn't allow any of them to score. He retired all four batters he faced, striking out 2.

Anything else? No? Okay, on to the bad news:

Liriano may have been squeezed a bit, but that's no excuse for walking guys in. Everything that happened to him in that 5th inning could be traced back to falling behind the hitters.

I'm not feeling a whole lot of confidence in Philip Humber after the inning he had on Saturday night. Is he on his way to pitching like Brian Bass?

The defense was lousy on Sunday. Punto dropped a foul pop, the 3rd dropped fly ball of the series for the Twins. Blackburn only had to throw 2 extra pitches to get that batter. Then Cuddyer, playing first so that Morneau could DH, made 2 errors on one play, allowing the tying run to score in the 5th. Punto and Cuddyer failed to retire Carlos Quentin on his slowly hit grounder leading off the 6th - a tough play, but one they're capable of making. And Brendan Harris, getting a start at 2B, double-clutched on a would-be DP relay, giving the runner just enough time to make it to first base. Extra outs, extra bases, extra work for our pitchers.

Blackburn and Mike Redmond should have known they weren't going to strike out Jim Thome on the same pitch 2 AB in a row.

Craig Breslow has made 1 appearance as Craig Breslow, in which he began an inning and retired 3 of 4 batters with a strikeout, and 2 appearances as Dennys Reyes, in which he came in with runners on and retired 1 of 3 batters with a BB and HBP. I like him better when he's being himself.

Despite their apparent strides in spring training, Carlos Gomez is still a strikeout machine (9 in 22 AB!) and Delmon Young is still a DP waiting to happen every time he hits with men on base.

The Twins have scored 24 runs in their 3 wins and 2 runs in their 4 losses. That is what you call feast or famine.

Minor League notes
Jose Mijares picked up the win for Rochester with a perfect inning of relief including 1 K. Yesterday for New Britain, Rob Delaney came on with 1 out in the 6th and men on and got out of the inning with a DP. He pitched a perfect 7th and 8th, striking out 3, then handed the ball to Anthony Slama for a perfect 9th. Wilson Ramos came alive at the plate, going 3 for 5 with his first HR and lining out for his 2 outs.

Stay 'til the End

Twins 6, Mariners 5
Wow, what a comeback! Trailing 5-3 with the bases empty and 2 out in the bottom of the 9th, 5 straight Twins batters reached, capped by Alexi Casilla's walk-off, 2-run single to center (reminiscent of the last game of the White Sox series last fall). Gardy made judicious use of his bench, getting PH walks from Jason Kubel (for Jose Morales) and Brian Buscher (for Nick Punto), and sending in Brendan Harris to run for Kubel. The inning was made possible thanks to marvelous AB from Carlos Gomez and Buscher, each of whom fouled off a few tough 3-2 pitches while managing to lay off everything out of the strike zone.

After scuffling through an anemic spring at the plate, did anyone need a couple of Dome-ball infield choppers more than Denard Span? I still haven't seen him hit a line drive, yet he's managed to open the season reaching base in 5 of 9 AB, with a sacrifice, SB, and a couple of RBI. He's also made a difference in the field.

The biggest break the Twins got in this game came in the 5th inning, when plate umpire Chuck Merriweather elected to call Erik Bedard's 2-2 pitch to Michael Cuddyer a ball. It looked to me like it had the inside corner at the belt. I couldn't tell the difference between that pitch and the first strike to Span in the 9th. Anyway, the AB continued, and 2 pitches later Cuddyer lined a 2-run single to get the Twins back in the game.

On the pitching and defense side of things, it obviously wasn't a very good night for Nick Blackburn command-wise. He walked 3 batters, something he did in only 5 of his 33 starts last season, and he went to 3-ball counts on several other hitters. He seemed to be overly reverent of Ken Griffey, Jr., especially since he was able to pop him up with RISP in the first inning. A lot of the hits Blackburn gave up were merely well-placed, with Franklin Gutierrez' double in the 1st the only big mistake that comes to mind.

Blackburn was victimized by some poor tactics in the 3rd and 4th. Endy Chavez reached with one out in the 3rd, showing that Span wasn't the only speedy leadoff hitter who could take advantage of the bouncy Dome turf. Nothing anybody could do about that bouncer over Justin Morneau's head. On the other hand, it came on an 0-2 count, so why was Morneau still playing even with the bag? Did they think Chavez would bunt with 2 strikes? Chavez got huge jumps on Blackburn on consecutive 1-2 pitches to Gutierrez back in the first inning, so somebody in the Twins dugout should have been expecting him to run. And run he did, taking off just as Blackburn began to lift his foot. No throw over to keep him honest? Then, with 2 out and Chavez on 2nd, Blackburn basically pitched around Griffey to get to Adrian Beltre. Again, I'm not sure he needs to be so chicken of Griffey there. Beltre lined the first pitch into CF for an RBI single.

In the 4th, after 2 were quickly retired, Blackburn gave up a check swing groundball single and a floater just over the head of Punto into short left. Delmon Young attempted to get the runner advancing to 3rd, rather throwing to 2nd to keep the batter at 1st. Both runners advanced into scoring position, and Chavez was able to squeak another ball through the IF for a 2-run single.

The defense saved the day in the 5th, however. After another wussy walk to Griffey leading off, Blackburn got Beltre to pop out, then gave up a liner down the RF line to Russell Branyan. Span streaked into the corner to cut it off, not only preventing Griffey from scoring, but keeping Branyan at 1B. That kept the DP in order, which the Twins managed to turn when Punto ranged about 4 steps to his right, then fired immediately behind him to Casilla for the force, and Casilla unloaded just as quickly to Morneau for the 3rd out. If anybody hesitates at all, a run scores there. The defensive play of the season (so far)!

White Sox 4, Royals 2
Two things happened in this game that I predicted we would rarely see in 2009: the Sox got a late game-winning HR, and the Royals lost a game they were leading after 7 innings. Of course, KC manager Trey Hillman didn't exactly use the formula I was anticipating when I made that prediction.

His first mistake was pulling veteran workhorse Gil Meche after 7 IP. Meche had allowed just 1 R on 7 H with 0 BB and 6 K, and had thrown just 91 pitches, an average of 13/IP. Over the past 3 seasons, Meche has averaged about 104 pitches/GS, right where he was on pace to be after 8 IP, and he said after the game that he told his manager he was OK to pitch the 8th. But Hillman has some sparkly new bullpen guys on his roster, so why not try out your lockdown 8th-9th inning duo of Juan Cruz and Joakim Soria. Wait a minute, that's not Cruz coming into the game, it's...

Kyle Farnsworth?

Whoops.

Farnsworth has a 4.54 ERA and 1.44 WHIP while allowing 1.54 HR/9 over the last 3 seasons. Did he get the call because he's a Kansas native? Who knows. After allowing 2 men to reach, Farnsworth did manage to strikeout Carlos Quentin for the 2nd out, bringing up Jim Thome. Even in the twilight of his career, Thome has managed to put up a 1.053 OPS vs. RHP over the last 3 seasons. Don't the Royals have any lefties in the 'pen? Sure, they've got Ron Mahay, who's allowed only a .681 OPS vs. lefties since 2006, and part of that was in the hitters haven of Texas. How about bringing in Soria for a 4-out save? He's allowed only a .495 OPS vs. lefties in his brief career.

Nope, let's stick with Farnsworth.

Ding!

Dumb, dumb, dumb. The Royals have a tough enough hill to climb this season without their manager screwing things up. As I've said to myself so many times over the last several years, I'm glad I'm not a Royals fan.

Nick Blackburn is Better Than They Think

A lot of us were taken by surprise last winter when Baseball America ranked Nick Blackburn the Twins' #1 prospect. They saw something that most prognosticators didn't, but Blackburn's 2008 season seemed to prove them right. I would have expected Blackburn's projection for 2009 to be more optimistic based on that performance. (I suppose it is, relative to what was out there last year.) PECOTA has him throwing 160 IP over 25 GS, with a 5.22 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 75/42 K/BB ratio. This following a season in which he threw 193.1 IP over 33 GS, with a 4.05 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 96/39 K/BB ratio.

Why the down projection? Is there some indicator in Blackburn's minor league history that would suggest a regression is likely? Was he just really lucky last year?

To answer the recent history question, here are Blackburn's BB and K numbers from each level over the last 4 seasons:

2005: 93.7 IP, 16 BB, 55 K, 1.5 BB/9, 5.3 K/9 at A+
2005: 49.0 IP, 10 BB, 27 K, 1.8 BB/9, 5.0 K/9 at AA
2005: 14.0 IP, 3 BB, 7 K, 1.9 BB/9, 4.5 K/9 at AAA
2006: 132.1 IP, 37 BB, 81 K, 2.5 BB/9, 5.5 K/9 at AA
2007: 38.0 IP, 7 BB, 18 K, 1.7 BB/9, 4.3 K/9 at AA
2007: 110.2 IP, 12 BB, 57 K, 1.0 BB/9, 4.6 K/9 at AAA
2007: 11.2 IP, 2 BB, 8 K, 1.5 BB/9, 6.2 K/9 at MLB
2008: 193.1 IP, 39 BB, 96 K, 1.8 BB/9, 4.6 K/9 at MLB

A couple of those stops have such small sample sizes that they aren't really worth talking about, but you can see the pattern. It should have come as no surprise that Blackburn was able to put up a BB/9 under 2.0 and K/9 between 4.5 and 5.0 in 2008. But PECOTA couldn't fathom it - those normal for Blackburn numbers were absolutely off the charts according to last year's projection. In its most generous version of his possible 2008, it couldn't see him doing better than 2.3 BB/9 and 4.0 K/9. Though it's significantly increased his forecasted innings and shaved a little off his ERA and WHIP, it still has him at 2.4 BB/9 and 4.2 K/9. Whah? Why should a pitcher entering his peak years suddenly have notably poorer control numbers? I don't buy it.

What about luck?

Here are his HR/9 and BABIP numbers over those same levels:

2005: 0.5 HR/9, .302 BABIP at A+
2005: 0.2 HR/9, .239 BABIP at AA
2005: 1.3 HR/9, .346 BABIP at AAA
2006: 0.7 HR/9, .310 BABIP at AA
2007: 0.2 HR/9, .267 BABIP at AA
2007: 0.6 HR/9, .255 BABIP at AAA
2007: 1.5 HR/9, .405 BABIP at MLB
2008: 1.1 HR/9, .329 BABIP at MLB

Again, giving a little less emphasis to some of the teeny sample sizes there, it should be apparent that a lucky season for Blackburn looks like 2005 or 2007 - HR/9 under 0.7 and BABIP under .300. It stands to reason that those rates could be significantly lower than 2008 in some forthcoming MLB season. PECOTA judged that Blackburn would need a BABIP of .288 to reach the ERA and WHIP numbers he actually accumulated last season. But by drastically exceeding the PECOTA BB/9 numbers, Blackburn made room for himself to have a lot more balls fall in for hits.

Setting aside the projections for a moment, I want to see what I can glean from the games Blackburn pitched last season. Checking out his game log, some things pop out at me:

Over his final 53.1 IP (27.6% of the season) he allowed 66 H (29.4%), 10 HR (43.5%) and 20 BB (51.3%).

He allowed 8 of his HR (34.8%) in 2 lousy starts.

He didn't get a win in 5 games he left with the lead, and had another in which the tying run scored on an error on what should have been the final out of the 7th inning. His offense only bailed him out of 2 of the games he left trailing.

In 16 starts from April-June, he threw as many as 95 pitches only once, despite pitching well enough to keep the Twins in the game into the 6th inning in 11 of them. Based on pitch count and the score, one could argue that Blackburn could have pitched deeper into 16 of his 33 starts last year.

15 of the 102 R Blackburn allowed were unearned, indicating that poor defense behind him extended several innings.

Based on that information, I would surmise that Blackburn would have easily surpassed 200 IP had he not been a rookie (Gardy would have let him get closer to 100 pitches more often early in the season) and had his defense played better behind him. With a bit better support from his teammates at the plate and in the bullpen, it isn't outlandish to think that he could have won 16 games. As the season wore on, he either tired, or the scouting reports caught up to him. Since his BABIP remained relatively unchanged, I'm inclined to think that he just hung more pitches, which would also explain the increase in walks - he just wasn't as good at locating over his final 10 starts. As a control pitcher with mediocre stuff, opponents know he's going to be around the plate, and that he's hittable, so they take their swings early. That will always result in a high H/9, but it will also help with his efficiency.

To get an even more focused idea of what a typical Blackburn start looked like in 2008, I'm going to throw out his 2 most exceptionally good and bad games. Namely:

4/2 vs. LAA: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 15/4 GB/FB (for the season, his GB/FB was 0.84)
7/2 vs. DET: 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
6/27 vs. MIL: 4.2 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 4 HR
9/14 vs BAL: 4.0 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 4 HR (there were four different months last year in which Blackburn didn't allow 4 HR)

Removing those outliers leaves this line for his remaining 29 starts:

170.2 IP, 198 H, 74 ER, 15 HR, 37 BB, 79 K, 3.90 ERA, 0.8 HR/9, 1.38 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 4.2 K/9, just shy of 6.0 IP/GS.

As I think about what to expect from Blackburn in 2009, those last 4 rates are the worst numbers I'd anticipate. But because I think Gardy will allow him to pitch deeper into games this season now that he's got a full season and some big games under his belt, and because I bet he won't see quite as many defensive miscues behind him this year, and because I expect him to be able to maintain his BB/9 and K/9 rates from the first 4 months of 2008 a little bit deeper into 2009, and because I think there's a decent chance that his BABIP will be lower than last year's, I believe that Blackburn can put up even better numbers this year than he did in 2008. I certainly don't think he'll have any trouble outperforming the projections.

Broken

White Sox 1, Twins 0

Well, shoot.

If someone had told me Nick Blackburn was going to allow 1 R in 6.1 IP in that game last night, I would have said the Twins will win for sure. His effort was exactly what the Twins needed, enabling them to forego every dicey member of the bullpen and hand the ball straight to Jose Mijares and Joe Nathan. The only damage he allowed was a titanic solo HR from Jim Thome - and as Bert Blyleven often reminds us, that's not a big deal in the grand scheme of things. It was the performance the Twins needed in a high-pressure game on the road.

But...

John Danks was even better, and on 3 days' rest to boot. I'm astounded that the White Sox were able to string together 3 consecutive outstanding starts from pitchers on short rest. I would have been amazed if they'd all thrown quality starts, but these were well beyond that. Danks allowed only 2 H, and really had only one threat to contend with after Alexi Casilla lined into a DP with Denard Span in motion in the 1st inning.

Michael Cuddyer led off the 5th with a double, advanced to 3rd on a fly ball from Delmon Young, and attempted to score on a shallow fly ball from Brendan Harris. Junior Griffey made a pretty weak throw, bouncing twice before the plate despite the relatively short range from which he let it go, yet it still beat Cuddyer - the ball just wasn't hit deep enough. Cuddyer did everything he could, slamming into AJ Pierzynski just after the ball arrived, but he wasn't able to jar it loose. The Twins did everything they could with what they had in that inning, but the Sox made the play.

That was how it went - last night, the Sox, a mediocre fielding team at best, made all the plays. I'll put it another way - they didn't make any mistakes. The Twins just made the one to Thome, and that was enough.

So the 2008 season ends with the Twins in 2nd place, an accomplishment no one would have expected them to achieve prior to the season. I'll break down September, review the season and look forward to next year in the coming days. But I want to remind you that the division wasn't lost in that hard-fought, extremely well-played 1-0 game last night. As I stated in my post yesterday, the division was lost 5-4 in KC, or Boston, or 3-2 in Oakland, or 4-2 in Seattle, or 4-3 in Toronto. We can proud of the road game the Twins played on September 30th - it's so many of the earlier road games that let us down.

Fit To Be Tied

Despite the best efforts of Jim Leyland and Freddie Garcia, the injury-depleted Tigers lineup couldn't do much against a short-rested Gavin Floyd, and when Garcia had to leave the game with a shoulder strain after 5+ innings, the Tigers showed why they're a last place team. In case you missed it, the sequence went: walk, stolen base, (new pitcher), wild pitch, wild pitch walk tying run scored, (new pitcher) wild pitch, strikeout, intentional walk, unintentional walk, (new pitcher) grand slam. 4 pitchers combined to give up 5 ER on 1 H, 4 BB and 3 WP in 1/3 of an inning. The first White Sox run came from walk, walk, ground-ball single. The last two came from IF hit, stolen base, double, wild pitch, fielding error. All together, the Sox got 8 R on 6 H, 6 BB, 4 WP and an error. 5 of the 6 batters who walked came around to score.

So the Twins and White Sox wind up with identical records through 162 games - fitting, since neither was able to separated from the other by more than a couple games for most of the season - and will meet tonight for 1 game to decide the division. The teams have identical home/road splits as well, which is a bad break for the Twins, since the coin flip determined that this game would be played in Chicago, where the Sox are 53-28. I'll preview the game in a minute, but first I have to take a minute to look back.

Tied.

That means 1 game would have made tonight unnecessary. Any loss turned into a win. One better AB, one better bounce. I'm sure everyone can think of several games that the Twins should have won this season. My dad is partial to the extra-inning loss in Cleveland 2 weeks ago that I commented on yesterday. Here's my favorite:

August 10th in KC. Scott Baker pitches 7 strong innings, handing a 4-2 lead to the bullpen. In steps Matt Guerrier, in the early stages of his collapse, to allow 2 hits and only one out. In comes Dennys Reyes to face consecutive lefties. He throws a wild pitch to allow one run to score, but induces easy ground balls from each batter he faces. The first advances the tying run to 3rd. The second is a routine two-hopper to short, not too hard, not too soft. Adam Everett fields it cleanly, sets his feet, and throws too high to first base, forcing Mike Lamb (Justin Morneau was the DH that day) to leap off the bag to catch the ball. Safe at first, the tying run scores, and the Twins go on to lose 5-4 in 12 innings.

How about another one? September 3rd in Toronto. The Twins lead 3-2 with 2 out in the bottom of the 9th and a runner on 1st. Joe Nathan is battling Toronto wonder-prospect Travis Snider, who works the count to 3-2 before lining the ball into right-center. There is no outfielder in sight, and with the runner going, a run seems possible. But the Twins have inserted September call-up Jason Pridie into RF, and he is speedy enough to cut the ball off - he even rounds it and points his hips toward the infield. If he just picks the ball up off the Sky Dome field turf, the runner stops at 3rd. Instead, the ball clanged off the heal of his glove, allowing the tying run to score. Nathan struck the next batter out. The Twins went on to lose in 11 innings.

I mention these two games because so many of the little things that cause you to lose baseball games aren't really within your control. If only he'd made a better pitch, if only he'd laid off that slider in the dirt, if only Sizemore's HR off the foul pole had hooked a bit more. Well, those things don't always work out, but sometimes they do. It usually evens out over 162 games. But errors are different. You don't have to wish the ball was pitched or hit any differently. All a MLB fielder had to do was make a routine play, and the tying run would never have scored. I like the KC example better because Pridie was making his MLB debut, and did have to run a long way to cut off the ball. Everett is a veteran of many seasons, and the ball was hit right to him, and he didn't have to rush. He just blew it.

And so, thanks to that (or whatever your favorite missed opportunity happens to be), the Twins play tonight. I guess it's fitting that they need to win on the road to keep their season alive, after so many of their failures happened away from home. All 6 of Nathan's blown saves, most of which were helped along by poor defense. Egregious sweeps by the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays and White Sox. That 4-game Sox sweep in early June was probably the low point of the season for the Twins. Coming into the series, they were 2-3 vs. the Sox in Chicago. They'll have to make up for their failure in that series by playing well tonight.

The pitching matchup is about as favorable as it could be. The Twins have terrific career numbers vs. John Danks, and he's going to be working on short rest. Apart from Francisco Liriano (who would be on short rest), Nick Blackburn is the least likely of the Twins' starters to allow a HR, and the most likely to induce grounders. On a night when the wind could be blowing out against the most prolific HR team in the league, that's a good thing.

My Keys to the Game:

1. Keep it in the Yard
The way they've been swinging the bats lately, I seriously doubt that the White Sox will be able to score more than a couple of runs without help from the long ball.

2. No Free Passes
Blackburn is also unlikely to allow a lot of walks, but he gives up a high enough BAA that he'd better not give away any bases. Again, the way the Sox have been swinging lately, I can't see them stringing enough hits together to score more than a couple of runs.

3. Catch the Ball
This game wouldn't be happening if the Twins had played their typical solid defense this year. Just for one night, let's make all the plays - no extra bases, no extra outs. If the Sox have to earn every base, I can't see them scoring more than a couple of runs.

4. Run Like Hell
The Twins have a huge speed advantage over the Sox. This will hopefully help them cut off balls in the gaps. But they also need to pressure the White Sox on defense. With Crede out, they're shaky at the corner IF and old and slow in the OF, and their catcher is one of the easiest to run on in all of baseball. Bunt, steal, hit and run, go first-to-third - run, run, run.

5. Set the Table
To take advantage of their speed, the Twins' speed guys will have to get on. Wouldn't it be great to have another night like last Thursday, when Carlos Gomez, Denard Span and Alexi Casilla went 9-14 with a walk?

6. Feast
Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Michael Cuddyer all have monster career numbers vs. Danks. When they come up with men on, they have to get hits. Morneau, in particular, needs to atone for flat last week of the season and see if he can't steal back the AL RBI title.

It's funny how the Twins and White Sox play such completely different offensive styles, yet accumulated the same record. In addition to everything else at stake tonight, this game is a mini-referendum on Ty Cobb-style baseball vs. Babe Ruth-style: the speedy little singles hitters vs. the big, slow, boppers. I know which side I'd like to see prevail.

One To Go

Twins 3, White Sox 2

The Twins are rising to the occasion of these big games. Tonight the bullpen pitched 4 scoreless innings, and the Twins won a one-run, low-scoring game. If you're thinking that it seems like a long time since that's happened, you're right. Not only was this the Twins' first 1-run victory since August 27th (precisely 4 weeks ago), it was the first time they won a game in which they scored fewer than 4 runs since August 21st, one day shy of 5 weeks ago.

Nick Blackburn was definitely shaky, and Gardy was probably wise to take him out of the game when he did. Though he was almost constantly in trouble, Blackburn managed to avoid disaster by allowing his only 2 XBH with the bases empty. Both of those hitters wound up scoring, but overall it was a decent performance.

Of course it was nerve-wracking to entrust the game to the bullpen, but Gardy went with the right guys tonight. Craig Breslow needed just 7 pitches to get through the 6th, Boof Bonser gave up a soft single but was otherwise good in 12-pitch 7th, Jose Mijares went through the 4-6 hitters 1-2-3 with just 12 pitches. Of the 4 innings, the 9th was the most exciting (agonizing?). Joe Nathan allowed a drive to the gap in left-center by AJ Pierzynski that Carlos Gomez was able to run down with his afterburner speed. Nathan then walked Nick Swisher on 4 pitches to put the tying run on with 2 out before getting the final out on a routine grounder.

The Twins' attack tonight consisted of 9 singles and 4 walks. Luckily, the speedsters got on base 5 times and scored 2 of the runs. Joe Mauer went 0-4, but 2 of his outs produced runs. Gomez laid down yet another bunt single, giving the Twins nearly double the number of bunt hits of the 2nd place team in the Majors. Definitely a stereotypical Twins offensive performance tonight - good enough for the win thanks to solid pitching and a strong defense.

The series is won, but no one can be satisfied with that. The White Sox' magic number is stuck at 5, but the Twins' is 6. A win tomorrow night puts the Twins ahead of the Sox and puts them as much in control of their own destiny as they can be at this point. There have been so many series this year in which the Twins won the first 2 games but failed to accomplish the sweep. This time it has to be different. The Twins are surging, the Sox are reeling - finish them!

No Defense for No Defense

Angels 7, Twins 5

The Twins suffered their first setback of the road trip Saturday night, just their 7th loss in the month of August. As with at least 3 of those other losses, they only have themselves to blame for this one. The offense succeeded in scoring 5 runs and knocked the Angel's starter in the 5th inning. The pitching staff allowed only 4 ER, thanks in part to a solid 1 R in 3.1 IP from the bullpen. But the defense didn't show up, at least in the 3rd inning, and that's where the game was lost.

It began when #9 hitter and catcher Mike Napoli chopped a grounder right to the 3rd base bag. Brian Buscher sailed his throw over Justin Morneau, allowing the leadoff man to reach. Chone Figgins had a terrific night at the plate, simply serving Nick Blackburn's pitches into CF or LF in each AB - his 2nd single of the game put runners at 1st and 2nd with no outs. Erick Aybar sacrificed, setting up 2nd and 3rd with one out. Gardy elected to walk hot-hitting Mark Teixiera (probably a good idea) in order to set up a DP with Vladimir Guerrero. Instead, Guerrero lined the first pitch to deep CF. Gomez misjudged the ball, took a bad route, and let it hit off the top of his glove for a 2-run "double." The next batter, Torii Hunter, smashed a grounder that slipped behind Buscher for another error and run. Garrett Anderson followed with a SF for one more run.

So, basically, the Twins gave the Angels 3 extra outs in that inning, and what do you know? The Angels came away with a 4-0 lead. I feel bad that Blackburn was saddled with even 1 ER in the inning. That came from a double-standard in official scoring that I've had a beef with for a while. Why is it that when a bullet is hit straight at an IF (as with the Hunter ball to Buscher) and he botches it, it's almost always scored an error, but when a bullet is hit at an OF (as with the Guerrero ball to Gomez) and he botches it, it's almost always scored a hit? It should have been obvious to the scorer that, had Gomez taken a clean route to the ball, he easily would have made the catch. Most scorers are too easy on the outfielders.

Anyway, Blackburn's outing wasn't nearly as disappointing as the box score would make it seem. One of his walks was intentional, set up by the first Buscher error. One of the 10 hits he allowed was the "double" to Guerrero; another was a bunt single by Hunter. Give him credit for the 3 extra outs he earned in the 3rd, and he would have had 5.2 IP with no more than 3 ER allowed - just one out away from a quality start. He allowed a bunch of hits, but they were all singles, and the last 3 he gave up were just grounders that found their way through the infield. His only glaring mistakes were walking the #9 hitter with 1 out in the 4th, and the pitch that Aybar lined for an RBI single 2 batters later. Yes, a lot of baserunners, but it wasn't like he was getting slammed all over the field.

Seeing that, and with his pitch count still in good shape (79), I have to question Gardy pulling him in the 5th. He did this in Blackburn's start in NY last month as well - when it was mainly poor defense that had caused Nick to suffer a big inning. The guy has been solid all season long. I'd love to see him get the same confidence from his manager that Livan Hernandez got.

Range Factor

Twins 7, Tigers 0

Nick Blackburn bounced back strongly from his worst start of the season, throwing 7 shutout innings in the rubber game of the Twins' series with Detroit. He allowed just 3 H and 1 BB while striking out 4. He never looked intimidated at all by the hot-hitting lineup he was facing. If he can double up on his first half numbers over the rest of the season, he's got a good chance of finishing the year with an ERA under 4.00, a winning record, and close to 200 IP. That would garner him quite a bit of ROY consideration, something few of us would have anticipated going into the season.

I want to point out the results of this last trip through the Twins' rotation:

Livan Hernandez: 7 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 5 K
Kevin Slowey: 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 8 K
Glen Perkins: 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 7 K
Scott Baker: 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 5 K
Blackburn: 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K

Livan is clearly the weak link. On Friday, he faces a Cleveland Indians lineup that has produced just 25 runs in the last 7 games (about 3.6 runs/game). If Livan can't hold them down, he can't be expected to contain any AL team. The other thing you should notice about the last trip through the rotation is that everybody pitched at least 6 innings. Definitely no longer a need for 7 men in the bullpen.

Blackburn was aided by a lineup which featured vastly greater range than that of the one that took the field behind him last Friday. Denard Span covers a lot more ground in RF than Michael Cuddyer, and during the game he was able to cut off 2 balls headed for the gap, saving at least one run for Blackburn and one for Jesse Crain, who allowed one honest hit and one cheap one (Placido Polanco's high chopper off the plate) in his 1 IP. Span had another pretty good game, doubling for the 3rd straight day and scoring 2 R while hitting 2 balls very sharply off LHP Casey Fossum. But he earns one demerit for failing to get his attempted sacrifice bunt far enough away from the catcher in the 3rd, and a second demerit for going from 2nd to 3rd on a grounder to his right with no one out in the 6th. He got away with it in each case (this time), but the base-running play is something I hope we never see from him again.

Carlos Gomez is having one of his high-functioning periods. He's like a slot machine that pays out just enough to keep you dropping quarters in. He reached base 3 more times in the game, finishing the series 7 for 13 with 2 2B, 2 BB and 2 K and scoring a run in each game. Both of his doubles were grounders right over the bag at 3rd, and he had a couple of bunt hits and IF hits as well, so I don't know that he's made much of an adjustment in his game - things just worked out very well for him in the series. It would be great to see him keep it up. Leading off the game, he also demonstrated the only time it is acceptable to dive into first base: when someone is trying to tag you rather than beat you to the bag. Otherwise, it is always better to run through the bag, something Nick Punto reminded us that he will never learn on his IF hit Tuesday night.

Punto saved Blackburn a run when he made a spectacular diving stop and glove-hand shovel to a sprawling Alexi Casilla for a force out at second base to end the 3rd inning. One has to wonder if such a sensational play had some influence on the 5-run inning that followed in the bottom half. It's certainly not a ball that Brendan Harris would have been able to reach. As long as Punto produces even marginally at the plate, I think he should be starting every game at SS - his range superiority over Harris is that important.

Delmon Young also had an encouraging series, going 4-11 with a BB and 2 2B. All three of his hits on Wednesday were balls he got out in front of the plate and pulled with authority. If he can stay balanced enough to still recognize and reach off-speed pitches, this approach will serve him and the Twins very well in the 2nd half.

I have an All-Star post coming later today. After that - we'll see. My wife is in labor, so things are about to change drastically around here later today (I'm only writing this because I'm too excited to sleep!). I hope I don't go the way of Batgirl. I don't think I will - she's so much more creative than me, I think my entries must take a fraction of the time to compose. I'll try to at least comment on each series as we go forward.

10 in a Row

Twins 7, Brewers 6

A fine comeback for the Twins, and the winning streak reaches 10 games. Both of those elements were missing from last year's disappointing season. There were several times last summer when the Twins would rattle off a few wins (2nd-half sweeps of Oakland and Baltimore come to mind) and I'd think, "at last, they're going to get rolling." Then they would backslide as quickly as they'd surged.

It's hard to imagine a winning season without a long winning streak taking place at some point. They had the 11-gamer and two 8-gamers in 2006, the 11-gamer in September 2003, the 15-gamer in 1991. Subtract those winning streaks, and those Twins teams were only a few games over .500 - with the streaks, they were pennant winners. A period of over a week in which just about everybody is playing well, and they're getting the breaks as well.

While it was routine for the 2006 Twins to recover from early deficits, last year's team rarely showed so much life. So it's most encouraging to see the team continue to battle against one of the better teams in the NL after falling behind by 3 runs. It's been almost expected for the Twins to come back and score in the half-inning after falling behind, and it happened again last night. Our starter was chased after 4.2 IP, and we came right back and chased their pitcher after 4.2 IP, narrowing the gap to just 1 run. The way things have been going, 1 run is no concern at all.

Nick Blackburn was pretty dreadful last night, so dreadful, in fact, that I'm not worried in the slightest, though this makes 2 starts out of 4 in which he's been beaten up pretty badly. All 6 R he allowed came on 4 HR; other than that, we're looking at 5 H and 5 K in 4.2 IP. He came into the game having allowed 7 HR in 15 GS cover 93 IP - that's a guy who knows how to keep the ball in the yard. So I look at last night's results and clearly see a fluke. His fastball was out of control: when he could get it to sink, he couldn't throw it over, and when he threw it over, it didn't sink. Dick and Bert made much of how he'd thrown just 89 pitches in 16 days prior to the game last night, and sinker-ballers tend to have trouble when they've had too much rest. I'm sure he'll be back to business as usual when he faces the Tigers on Wednesday.

What is it that happens to Joe Mauer at the plate when he comes home? He was already hitting about .100 points higher and over .200 points of OPS better at home when this week began. He went 1-9 in San Diego, but last night was 2-4 with a BB, 2B, HR, and his 2 outs were a fly to warning track in CF, and a liner to second. Glad he'll be home for the next 9 days. He now has 3 HR in June, about the number I figured he'd hit every month, leaving him with 15-20 by the end of the season. He'll really have to pick up the pace to meet those numbers now.

Alexi Casilla continued to show why he's ready to stick in the big leagues. He worked the count to 3-1 before turning on his 4th HR, followed Gomez' inning-opening bunt single with one of his own in the 3rd, then made a spectacular diving stop on a Prince Fielder grounder in the hole. Two of those plays weren't friendly to his finger, and he's day-to-day with a middle-finger sprain of his left hand. Those are the ones that can really nag a baseball player, so I hope Punto can fill in ably for a few days while Casilla gets better.

Another big win for the bullpen, as Brian Bass, Matt Guerrier and Joe Nathan combined for 4.1 IP, 0 R, 3 H, BB, 4 K. Bass looked particularly good, getting 2 K in his 2.1 inning stint. He's doing a good job of keeping his stock relatively high. Guerrier had to walk somebody (of course), although I thought the ump could have wrung him up on the 2-2 pitch.

Livan Hernandez vs. Manny Parra tonight in a battle of pitchers with 1.61 WHIPs. Hopefully the offense can do enough damage to make up for the starter again tonight.

From Modest Beginnings Come Big Innings

Twins 7, Diamondbacks 2
Twins 6, Diamondbacks 1
Twins 5, Diamondbacks 3

The Diamondbacks' pitchers did a great job of shutting down the Twins' offense in 21 of 24 IP. In the other 3, the Twins enjoyed timely hitting as fine as anything the White Sox did two weeks ago (minus the HRs). This makes 5 straight games in which the Twins have scored 4 or more runs in a single inning, nearly batting around as they do. It's beginning to feel like it's just a matter of time before everything starts dropping in, and that's a very good feeling for a team to take onto the field against pitchers the likes of Randy Johnson and Brandon Webb (and, coming this Tuesday, Jake Peavy). It's brought them all the way back from their atrocious last road trip and positioned them to once again compete for the division.

I didn't think it accurate to see in some of the write-ups that Randy Johnson got "knocked around" on Friday. That one bad inning began with an infield hit from Delmon Young, followed by a drive off the baggy from Brendan Harris for a double. Matt Macri chopped a 2-run single up the middle that seemed to take forever to get into CF. After Carlos Gomez flied out, Alexi Casilla delivered a bunt single, Macri hustling to 3rd on an errant throw from the catcher. Joe Mauer hit a SF to left, Casilla taking second on a close play at the plate. Justin Morneau grounded the next pitch into LF for an RBI single, and moved to 2nd on a close play at the plate. Craig Monroe capped the rally with a 1st-pitch HR just over the wall in left-center. 6 R on 6 H, but only 2 balls really hit hard. A lot of the hits Johnson gave up on Friday were the result of curious defensive placement - SS Stephen Drew played deep in the hole vs. most righties, and several of them took advantage by grounding singles up the middle that would have been routine outs given normal positioning.

Saturday night's big rally began with a well-placed bunt single by Mauer (despite a valiant fielding attempt from brand-new 3B Augie Ojeda). Morneau hooked a 1-2 slider into the RF corner for an RBI double, then moved to third when the short-hop throw from the cutoff man bounced away from the catcher. With the infield in, Michael Cuddyer grounded to short, then Jason Kubel walked on 5 pitches. Delmon Young went with a fastball on the outer half and drove an RBI single to RF, then he and Kubel moved up a base on a wild pitch. Brian Buscher worked ahead in the count, then drove a ball to the base of the wall in LF, scoring 2. Harris immediately grounded a pitch past the diving 1B, driving in Buscher. Gomez struck out on 4 pitches, none of which were in the strike zone. Casilla took the first 3 pitches for balls, then grounded the 3-2 pitch up the middle to drive in the 6th run. It looked to me like the only bad pitch of the inning was the double to Buscher - everything else was nice hitting by the Twins.

The fifth inning today began with a ground-ball single to CF by Kubel. Young followed with a fly to deep left that was blessedly lost in the day-game roof and fell for a double. Buscher took advantage by grounding a 2-RBI single up the middle. Harris grounded the 1st pitch he saw through the left side for a single. Gomez laid down a perfect Sac bunt, setting up Casilla for another 2-RBI grounder up the middle. Mauer reached on an error by the shortstop, sending Casilla to 3rd. He scored on a SF by Morneau - Mauer was nailed at 2nd trying to tag to end the inning.

Besides timely hitting from Harris, Casilla, Macri/Buscher, Morneau and Young, these innings had something else in common - they all had the Twins aggressively flying around the bases, forcing the D-backs into poor throws, and taking advantage by claiming extra bases. (Unfortunately, they all had an out from Gomez in the middle of them as well, though at least on Sunday it was productive.) They were, quite simply, the embodiment of how the Twins have managed to score the 4th-most runs in the AL while being last in HRs and 8th in OPS: put the ball in play, run the bases. This week, it's worked.

The other facet of this is the pitching. Twins pitchers have now delivered 9 consecutive quality starts since Livan Hernandez was last blown to bits in Cleveland. In this series, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, and Hernandez combined for 20 IP, 3 ER, 19 H, 2 BB, 15 K. The bullpen allowed 0 ER and just 4 base runners in its 7 IP. For the home stand, the starters averaged 6.2 IP, 1.76 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Washington and Arizona are, admittedly, not the hottest teams in the NL right now, but this result has to be a huge confidence boost for a young team. With strong contributions from mid-season call-ups beginning to supplant some of the veterans signed during the off-season, this home sweep vs. the NL is strangely reminiscent of 2 summers ago...

Moral Victories

Indians 1, Twins 0
Twins 8, Indians 5
Indians 12, Twins 2

Another Thursday, another series lost. But I don't feel too bad about this one. It's hard to lose 1-0 games, but when it's the guy who was the best pitcher in the league last year who shuts you out, well, that's understandable. Obviously, the base-running was terrible, but when Sabathia is that on, you're just not going to win. It's when Vicente Padilla throws a shutout that I get upset. Besides, the valiant start from Scott Baker was precisely what the Twins needed, breaking a string of 11 straight games without a quality start.

I still quibble a bit with the sequence to Garko in the 1st inning: after getting ahead 0-2, Mauer and Baker tried to get him to chase consecutive sliders off the plate (yes!). Garko laid off, evening the count. At that point, I would have liked to have seen them bust him in, keep him thinking the ball might come inside. They went back outside, and even though the ball was 4 inches off the plate, he leaned out and lined it up the middle for the game's only RBI.

Still, a terrific effort from Baker, backed up nicely by Nick Blackburn on Wednesday. The Twins' most consistent starter so far this season, Blackburn showed that Friday's drubbing at the hands of the White Sox was a fluke. Boof Bonser did not inspire confidence out of the 'pen, and Gardy had to bring Reyes in to try to bail him out. Grady Sizemore was not fooled when Reyes tried to slip a breaking ball over the inside corner, and belted a 3-run HR (the first off Reyes this season) to bring the Tribe back within 1. Luckily, Jason Kubel, Justin Morneau, and next-generation piranhas Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla did enough offensively to keep the Twins in front. I must say, it was particularly gratifying to light up Paul Byrd - I've always been irritated that the Twins couldn't be patient enough to knock him around.

The Indians were certainly patient enough to knock around Livan Hernandez on Thursday, proving that his recent string of awful starts (5 GS, 24.1 IP, 11.20 ERA, 2.49 WHIP, 4 HR) is most definitely not a fluke. If the Twins had had the sense to deal him after his start in Colorado, they might have gotten a quality prospect or two, in addition to some extra payroll space. Now, if someone were to offer a Single A bench-warmer and a case of beer, I'd jump at the chance to unload Livan for some kind of return.

But the bad pitching didn't stop there. After Brian Bass doused the situation Livan left in the 4th with a quick DP and flyout, he proceeded to allow 3 ER on 2 H, 2 BB and a HBP while recording just 2 outs in the 5th before being relieved by Craig Breslow (who is, so far, a good pitcher). Boof followed Breslow and allowed 2 ER on 4 H in his inning, although he did strike out the side. Moral victories.

The Twins should have had the stones to shake up their roster before the road trip started, but I guess they just wanted to see which of their option-less pitchers still had it in them to contribute. In that respect, this was a productive series. With Juan Rincon designated for assignment earlier in the day, the Twins got to look at their three worst pitchers in Thursday night's game. All have been on a downward trajectory as bad as Rincon's, all needed to prove that they could eat innings and keep the team in the game, and they all struggled. Any of them (all of them?) could be taken off the 25-man roster at this point and make the team better.

The Twins finally have an off-day on Monday, the day Blackburn should start. Francisco Liriano has put together 3 straight outings in which his K/9 was greater than 9.00, and his control has been much better. He could hardly do worse than Livan. His next start in Rochester will be on Sunday. The Twins should skip Livan's turn in the rotation on Tuesday, pitch Blackburn on 5 days rest instead, then send out Slowey, Perkins and Baker on their normal rest. That would allow Liriano to start at home a week from Saturday. No "seasoned" veterans in the rotation, but when your veteran is as bad as Livan, I'll take the rookies. I would also send Bass down and recall Bobby Korecky.

Hopefully, those and others moves are coming soon!

Streaking

Twins 4, Royals 3 (12 innings)
Twins 9, Royals 8 (10 innings)
Twins 5, Royals 1

What an amazing road trip. The Twins went 5-1 despite allowing as many runs as they scored (36). Always a good thing to concentrate the sucking into a single game!

I feel really bad for the Royals and their fans. We've been there, at least those of us who loved the Twins through the '90's. That the Royals renaissance has yet to take hold must be unbearable for their faithful. And after showing signs of being much improved just a couple weeks ago, to now be in the midst of yet another double-digit losing streak, how awful. And to have that streak prolonged after being comfortably ahead with 2 out in the 9th inning must be utterly soul-crushing. No wonder Guillen snapped.

Delmon Young made things a lot harder than they needed to be. Clearly, his attempt at a sliding catch in the 9th on Tuesday was ill-advised. I do appreciate the enthusiasm, but I would have flipped my lid if another game had been thrown away by defensive ineptitude. Incredibly, he was even worse on Wednesday. Kudos for Gardy for having the good sense to finally sit him down and end his undeserved consecutive-games streak. With that out of the way, he can more easily sit out several times over the remainder of the season.

Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey both took shutouts into the 9th inning. I know the Royals haven't exactly been lighting it up lately, but one has to be impressed with their progress this season. Livan Hernandez, meanwhile, got blown to bits once again, by the afore-mentioned team that hasn't been lighting it up. Who's eating the innings now? While the Twins talk of sending Boof to the bullpen and potentially releasing Bass or Rincon to make room for Scott Baker, I wonder when the conversation will turn to releasing Livan. Surely, the optimum time to trade him has passed us by.

Michael Cuddyer has been in a horrible slump, but it was easy to see why the hits were so difficult to come by on Tuesday and Wednesday. He went 3 for 11 in the two games (good for him, lately), the hits coming on fastballs knee-high on the outside corner that he poked into right or right-center. The Royals pitchers did a very good job of spotting their fastball in that location, then mixing in sliders or splitters that start in that location before diving out of the zone. With two strikes, it's difficult for Cuddy not to try to protect out there, but he ends up looking bad when the breaking balls land in the dirt. He may have to determinedly take 2 strikes in order to try to force pitchers to come back up and over the plate.

Gardy looked pretty good on Wednesday night, didn't he? He received a ton of criticism over the last week or so for using Joe Nathan so sparingly in close or extra-inning games. I agreed that after throwing just 10 pitches in the 9th on Tuesday, it would have been sensible to send him back out for the 11th. The Royals used their closer for 2 innings and 31 pitches. For some reason, that made him absolutely unavailable for Wednesday, and when the 9th spun out of control, they didn't go to Soria. I doubt he would have needed more than 3 or 4 pitches to dispatch Craig Monroe. Anyway, Monroe came through, and there was Nathan, fresh as a daisy, to collect the save for the Twins in the bottom of the 10th.

Carlos Gomez has had a much better May. I'll go over the numbers after Saturday's game is complete, but I don't think there's much he can do in the next 2 games to diminish his accomplishments this month. His overall approach at the plate has been better, and he's played much better defense. He's still got a ways to go, so I hope the trend continues throughout the summer. I won't say putting him on the team out of spring training was the right decision, but it doesn't look like such a bad decision right now.

Mile Low

Twins 4, Rockies 2
Rockies 3, Twins 2
Rockies 6, Twins 2

My wife and I were furiously working on curtains for the nursery this weekend, so I didn't get to watch any of the Twins/Rockies "action" after Friday night. My condolences to all the poor bastards who did. How excruciating to see so many men left on base, while quality pitching was being wasted. It's amazing to me that these two teams combined for just 19 runs in 3 games. Neither one is playing very well right now.

The Twins went 3 for 8 with runners in scoring position on Friday (+2 SF). Backed by Nick Blackburn's strongest start in almost a month (7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 5 K), decent relief pitching (OK except for the walks) and a Kamikaze catch from Gomez to end the game (I never said he couldn't go get it out there!), they came away with a win.

I was peeking at the scoreboard every now and then on Saturday. "Wait a minute," I thought, "is that Livan Hernandez with a no-hitter into the 6th inning? The Rockies must be in worse shape than I thought!" Amazing how quickly that 0 R on 0 H turned into 3 R on 8 H, huh? Still, given his typical run support, that should have been win number 7 for Livan. (Anybody want him?) It should be noted that the Rockies started each of their last 3 innings of this game with XBH - all of those guys scored. The Twins' offense managed just 2 R despite putting 12 men on base, going 1 for 7 with men in scoring position and stranding 9.

On Sunday, the Twins began each of their first 2 innings of batting with XBH, and had a 1-out triple in the 3rd, but none of them scored. 0 for 8 with RISP right there. For the game, they went 1 for 12. Kevin Slowey came one out short of a Quality Start, but allowed the last 4 batters to reach (after allowing only 4 to reach in the first 5.2 IP). Once again, the penultimate hitter ground out a long AB (10-pitch walk to Brad Hawpe) - maybe something to watch out for in the future.

The best news of the weekend came from Delmon Young, who doubled his season XBH total from 4 to 8, raising his season line to .287/.328/.348. A couple more series like that, and maybe we can all relax about his power potential.

As Bad As It Gets

White Sox 7, Twins 1

Yeah, that's about the worst game you're going to see. Pathetic effort from the offense, mediocre start, poor relief pitching, and the defense threw the ball around. Oh well, if you're only going to get one hit, you might as well get all your other sucking out of the way, too.

Blackburn didn't do too badly, giving the Twins another quality start. Too many walks, though.

Was anybody surprised to see Joe Mauer be the one who broke up the no-no? He's as hot as it gets right now.

Progress?

On a more positive note, Francisco Liriano had an effective, er, not terrible outing for AAA on Monday, allowing just 1 R on 2 H in 5 IP with 4 K. He's turned the corner, right? Well, there were the 4 BB, and he only threw 48 of his 87 pitches for strikes. So there's still some work to be done there. But it certainly seems to be a step forward.

Span vs. Gomez

Each CF made an error last night (Gomez' was, predictably, of the exuberantly overthrowing variety). Gomez, like the rest of the Twins' lineup, didn't hit squat, lowering his season line to .261/.287/.360, a .647 OPS, and holding at 13/14 SB. Span has been a busy boy the last couple of nights, collecting 5 H and 1 BB with 3 SB. That raised his AAA season line to .333/.443/.353, a .796 OPS and 11/13 SB.

Aaron Gleeman has been using some interesting metrics to measure the Twins' performance the last couple of days: Win Probability Added (WPA) and Outside Swings Percentage (OS%). Even after he adjusted the WPA ratings to reflect Gomez' importance as CF and Span's poor performance relative to actual RF, Span still wound up with a better rating than Gomez. And in the OS% post, Gleeman cuts off the PAs of rated players at 40, excluding Span, who has just 34 so far. Had he included Span, everyone could have seen that his OS% of 15.8% is even better than that of Joe Mauer (16.9%).

I can't help but conclude, as I have since spring training, that Span is more ready for the Big Leagues right now than Gomez. Sigh.