6th Split: 7-9

Overall Record: 48-49
3rd in AL Central, 4 games back

Other splits: 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, 8-8, 9-8

As you can see, the Twins have played all 6 of their splits up to this point of the season within one win of .500. (Any guesses which extra win they should have had this time? Maybe the one they were leading by 10 runs vs. the 2nd worst offensive team in the league?) As a result, their overall record is within one win of .500. This should come as a surprise to no one. For anyone to doubt after 97 games that the 2009 Twins are essentially a .500 team is wishful thinking. If nothing changes, I would expect them to be right around that number at the end of the season.

They are basically in the middle of the pack in the league in terms of R, OPS, ERA and R allowed. They remain one of the top fielding teams despite committing their highest number of errors this split (9, giving them 40 overall on the season). It's illustrative of just how deep the holes are on the roster that the extraordinary performances of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan, together with the strong performances so far by Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, Nick Blackburn and Matt Guerrier, have only been enough to bring the team back to about even. This team simply isn't a winner, and without significant changes, I don't expect that to change over the last 40% of the season.

If that's apparent to me, it's undoubtedly also the case with the players. My travel and work schedule hasn't permitted me to keep up with entries this month, but what I said last time is still true: this team needs a shot in the arm, a mental lift, a sign from the front office that the cavalry is coming. Mark Grudzelanek, if he has anything left at 39, could well be an upgrade at 2B, but he's still probably at least a couple of weeks away. Replacing one of the AAAA long relievers with Jesse Crain should ultimately improve the bullpen, but it's not enough. Since this will perhaps be my last chance before the deadline, here's a quick summary of my thoughts on the Twins' trade possibilities:

At the All-Star Break, Blackburn was among the leaders in the AL in IP and ERA. He was pitching great, but is actually only a good pitcher. If his numbers by the end of the season slip back to where we might expect from a good but not great pitcher (ERA somewhere around 4.00 in 210 IP), his ERA will be 4.85 for the rest of the season. Anthony Swarzak should be able to match or exceed that, so Blackburn, at the height of his value, would have made a terrific centerpiece for a trade. However, with Glen Perkins having shoulder trouble and Kevin Slowey suffering a setback in his recovery, the Twins are probably loathe to deal a MLB SP right now.

However, there are other positions of depth within the organization. With Grudzelanek in the system, the Twins now have 2B covered for the rest of the year, with Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla available to get spot starts or take bench spots. Steven Tolleson has performed well enough at Rochester to push Luke Hughes down the depth chart to AA. Hughes is a lousy IF, but has a pretty good bat and has also played some corner OF. Danny Valencia looks for all the world like he's ready to assume the 3B spot next season. David Winfree has taken a step forward this year, particularly in terms of plate discipline, with the vast majority of his walks coming in the last 2 months. Rene Tosoni is another OF having a breakout year at AA. Ben Revere does about what Denard Span does, and Joe Benson is another fine OF in the low minors. Jeff Manship has reached AAA, showing similar stuff to Swarzak/Blackburn/Mulvey but doing an even better job of keeping the ball in the yard. Juan Morillo still doesn't have great control, but the K/9 and BAA are outstanding.

Given that overview, Twins' biggest need is offense from SS and quality short relief. They should expect Tolleson and Valencia to replace Grudzelanek and Crede in 2010. Therefore, if they add a good SS, Brendan Harris becomes superfluous - he should be a trade piece. Mulvey is in his final option year, and will likely force the Twins into the same position they were with Philip Humber this spring. He's imminently replaceable by Manship. Pick somebody out of Blackburn, Perkins, and Mulvey and make them a trade piece. Winfree is on his way to replacing Cuddyer, but could probably do what Delmon Young is doing right now. Throw in Young, if only to clarify the OF situation at the upper levels. And, realistically, with top prospect Aaron Hicks just a year behind Benson and Revere, one of them could probably be traded.

Any of those guys could be probably be dealt for a decent reliever. The Brewers, watching the flurry of recent moves by the Cardinals, and with SS prospect Alcides Escobar ready for the bigs, might be willing to deal JJ Hardy for the right package, particularly if it included Blackburn and Harris. A collection of those guys might be enough to pry Christian Guzman away from the Nationals. I wouldn't worry too much about upper level depth for the rest of the season - if the Twins want to contend in 2009, they're going to have to make a bold move in the next week and hope for the best.

Bold Prediction: Something is going to happen for the Twins before the deadline.

Twins' Feeble Skills No Match for Power of Dark Side

Yankees 10, Twins 2
Yankees 4, Twins 3
Yankees 6, Twins 4

Another year, another 7 games of futility vs. the Yankees. We can take some solace in the fact that 6 of the 7 games were close. But the Twins never led at any point during this series, so how close was it?

I get more worked up watching the Twins take on the Yankees than any other team. They never seem to expand the strike zone, and always find a way to foul off good pitches, wearing down the starting pitchers. And then they get numerous bloopers and infield hits to fall in around the occasional line drive. The Twins, meanwhile, when they aren't swinging feebly at balls out of the zone, seem to aim every hard-hit ball directly at a Yankee defender, so that they hardly have to move to record the out.

I could rant for awhile about the inequities between the 2 teams, but the Twins ultimately didn't get it done when they had their chances. Joe Mauer and Michael Cuddyer did not have their best ABs with the go-ahead runs on base. For Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano, disaster could have been avoided had they taken advantage of the weakness in the Yankee lineup, but bench players Francisco Cervelli and Cody Ransom each did rally-sustaining damage against them.

The last 6 games have told us a lot about how well the Twins as constituted can compete this season. They seem to be able to handle the Tigers, but weren't able to get above water against the Yankees. The good news is that the Twins don't have to play the Yankees again this season. Their 43-36 record against all other opponents translates to a .544 winning percentage. If they play at least that well for the remainder of the season, they should end up with 84-85 wins. Will that win the division? Maybe. Let's look on an even brighter side: since Joe Mauer returned to the lineup, the Twins are 32-25 against everybody not from the Bronx. That's a .561 winning percentage, good enough for 86 wins if the Twins can keep it up over the 2nd half.

Unless the Tigers or White Sox dramatically shake up their rosters, the Twins should be right there with them at the end of the season. But is it enough to get them over the hump? What happens to them in October if it is?

The current situation reminds of the 2003 Twins. They were 44-49 at the break, but came burning out of the gate after the All-Star break and went 46-23 for the rest of the season. What happened? The Shannon Stewart trade. The 2009 Twins need something like that. Not that there aren't things they could do to improve their lineup using the players they already have. Here's my list:

1. Pass the Torch from Redmond to Morales

Everybody knows that this is Mike Redmond's last year as the Twins' backup catcher. His skills are deteriorating quickly, and once a 38-year-old loses his skills, they don't come back (without steroids). Morales, meanwhile, is just entering into his peak years, and, as a switch-hitter, doesn't have the platoon limitations that Redmond displayed even in his prime. Redmond has become an easy out on Mauer's off days; Morales is 5th on the team in OPS, albeit in limited ABs. However, Redmond and Morales have had similar playing opportunities, and Morales has better than .200 points of OPS on Redmond. Leave the old man on the bench and play the kid - the lineup is much stronger with Morales in it. In fact,

2. Put Morales in the lineup every day

He's always been a good average hitter in the minors, so while his numbers may come down some as he gets more ABs, Morales should still remain a productive addition to the batting order. And again, as a switch-hitter, he adds balance to the lineup no matter who takes the mound against the Twins. Put Morales in the DH slot on days when Mauer is catching. But where does that leave Jason Kubel?

3. Platoon Kubel and Young in LF

Jason Kubel isn't a very good defender in LF, but he's still probably just a bit better than Delmon Young, so it actually improves the OF defense to have him out there. While he's mashing RHP to the tune of a nearly 1.050 OPS with all 14 of his HR, he's hit an anemic .179/.247/.224 vs. LHP. That's like Matt Tolbert or Alexi Casilla. As disappointing as Young has been, he can definitely top that, with an OPS in the high .700s vs. LHP for his career thus far. For reasons well illustrated by Twins Geek, the Twins are stuck with Young. A platoon would be a way to give him the best possible circumstances in which to shine and raise his value for either the Twins or a future trade. But what happens to Carlos Gomez in this scenario?

4. Swap Gomez for Pridie

At this stage, Gomez is mainly being deployed as a 4th OF, coming in as a PR of defensive sub late in games. Jason Pridie is a plus runner and defender, and can fill that role nearly as well. At 24 years old and in his 3rd year at AAA, he has likely reached his ceiling as a prospect - his 5/1 K/BB ratio is exactly what it was last year, meaning that he'll never develop the on-base skills to be more than a bench guy. Gomez, however, has shown some strides in that department, narrowing his K/BB from just under 6/1 to a little under 3/1. Now he needs to keep that up, while reincorporating his bunting and SB skills and continuing to work on shortening his swing and driving the ball the other way. His best chance of developing is to get 4-5 PA every day at Rochester for the remainder of their season. Let's give him 150 or so AB in the International League and see what he's learned by September 1st. And while we're looking at Rochester,

5. Swap Tolbert for Casilla or Tolleson

I'd be inclined to go with Casilla, because he's been at Rochester longer, switch-hits, and has better range and speed than Steve Tolleson. In 34 games with the Twins, Casilla could scarcely have performed worse, hitting .180/.242/.225 while playing spacey defense in the field. While he's still made his share of mistakes with the glove, in 37 games with Rochester he's hitting .340/.377/.422, so whatever was troubling him with the bat seems to have been resolved. While he was up briefly in June he hit .222/.323/.296 - even if he only maintained that for the rest of the season it would be a pretty healthy step up from Tolbert. Tolleson, meanwhile, has hit .285/.369/.421 between New Britain and Rochester this year. He has a terrific eye at the plate and so should at least be able to get on base once he's called up. However, he's only played 39 games above AA so far, so it probably makes the most sense for him to finish the season at Rochester and then come up in September. But if he were to replace Tolbert, I have little doubt that he'd be an upgrade.

6. Maximize the PA from the best hitters

Gardy had it for awhile there in May, batting Mauer 2nd and shifting the rest of the big hitters up. But then Brendan Harris got hot, and it was so nice to have a righty in between Mauer and Span, and a guy like Mauer should be batting 3rd, right? No - a guy like Mauer should be batting as often as possible. Span does a terrific job as the prototypical leadoff man, but then Mauer and his .461 OBP should be hitting 2nd. And Morneau's .390 should be 3rd. Basically, the Twins' top 6 hitters are Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Span and Morales. They should be the first 6 hitters in the lineup, in that order after Span leads off. Don't insert filler in between them - ultimately, that will result in broken up rallies and an All-Star left in the on-deck circle at the end of the game. Yes, that leaves an opening for a LOOGY to come in late in a game, but Span (.922 OPS), Mauer (.989 OPS) and Morneau (.970 OPS) all hit lefties well enough that it's not worth worrying about. As long as Cuddyer (.985 OPS) comes before Kubel (the aforementioned .471 OPS), Gardy can either set up a nice matchup if the opponent wants to stick with the LOOGY, or force the other team to burn a pitcher.

That's the best we can do right now. These adjustments should be worth another couple of wins for the Twins, getting them up to about last year's total of 88. That's about what the Tigers are on pace for; the Sox are on pace for 84. The Twins should be just about good enough to win the division, but nowhere near enough to compete with the Eastern Division juggernaut they would almost certainly face in the first round of the playoffs.

You'll notice there are no fixes for a bullpen that currently consists of Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Morales and 3 long relievers. That's because Jesse Crain and Juan Morillo are still walking too many guys at AAA to justify a call-up right now. In order to upgrade the 'pen, and ensure that the team can win 90+ games and defeat the AL's best teams, the Twins are going to have to make a trade for this year's Shannon Stewart. How they might pull that off I'll have to leave for another time.

5th Split: 9-8

First Half Record: 41-40
3rd in AL Central 4 games back

Other splits: 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, 8-8

One of the reasons I started keeping track of splits years ago was that, at 16-17 games, they're long enough to give you perspective, but still short enough that one game can make a big difference. When a team comes into the final game of a split at 8-7, that last game is the difference between being on pace for 91 wins and a playoff spot, or 81 wins and mediocrity.

The Twins, sadly, have been firmly in the latter category this first half. Wednesday was the first time in 8 tries that they won a game after starting the day one game over .500. Having finally reached the 2 games over plateau, they lost Friday night's marathon in 16 innings. Had they won, I'd be writing about a satisfactory split of 10-7. Because Kevin Slowey's wrist acted up and RA Dickey allowed more damage in 3 innings (4 ER on 9 H) than he did in all of June (2 ER on 8 H in 13.2 IP), the Twins finish the first half essentially on pace to be a .500 team, surely not good enough to win even the middling AL Central.

The team generally did a terrific job of preventing runs, allowing fewer than 4 runs per game thanks to strong starting pitching and a defense that committed just 8 errors and 17 games and has risen to 5th in baseball in defensive efficiency. However, 2 of those errors occurred on the same critical play with 2 out in the 8th innings of a 1-run game, costing the Twins a victory. How many times have we seen a Twins pitcher cruise into the late innings of a game, only to allow a succession of hits that undermine with shocking quickness the gem we thought we were watching develop?

This team should have at least a couple more wins than it does, based on its overall quality of play, and the 2nd half schedule won't be as tough as what's come up to now. But I can't help getting the sort of downer vibe I had by the middle of 2005 and 2007, when the Twins kept finding ways to lose close, well-played games. At just 4 games out of first, trailing the at least equally flawed Tigers and White Sox, it's hardly time to write this season off. In fact, if the Twins can come back and win this series with Detroit, they will have won 6 out of 7 series for a record of 13-8 in their last 21. That's going to get it done over the long haul.

Bold Prediction: The Twins will still be over .500 at the end of the next split.

June Review

Twins Record: 15-12
Overall Record: 40-39, 2nd in AL Central by 4 games

The Twins finally put together a winning month in June. If they could have achieved these results every month, they'd be on their way to 90 wins and a likely playoff spot. In other words, months like this are what you hope for.

And yet, it feels like it should have been better. According to Bill James' Pythagorean Expectation, the Twins' 112-93 run differential this month should have led to a 16-11 record. How did that extra win get away? We need only look to Nick Blackburn's 5 starts. They were all quality, to say the least - he averaged 2 ER over 7.2 IP - but the team came out on top just once. Two of those games were lost in the bottom of the 8th inning, with Blackburn just an out or two from handing the game to Joe Nathan. Of course, it didn't help that the offense provided just 9 R of support in those 4 losses.

From the rarefied heights of May, the offense inevitably came crashing back to earth in June. They scored 26% fewer runs, hit about 1/3 fewer HR, and saw their team OPS drop from .821 to .737. Some of that had to do with the pitchers going 0 for 27 in the 9 interleague road games. Some of it was the result of Denard Span spending about half of the month on the DL, inviting extra ABs from Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez. But mostly, it was a simple regression from the otherworldly numbers that Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer were able to produce in May.

Luckily, the pitching staff picked up the slack. They were 3rd in the league in ERA and R allowed this month, and first in fewest walks, as usual. Perhaps most importantly, they cut their HR allowed rate by 40%. I would attribute part of that to a relatively easy schedule - 18 of the 27 games the Twins played this month were against teams with below average OPS. But the starters definitely stepped up, too, pitching deeper into games more consistently, enabling Gardy to more or less avoid the weaker pieces of the bullpen.

Though the Twins didn't quite win as many as they should have, it's important to give them credit for what they did accomplish. Considering that they were a disaster on the road through 2 months, it's a great achievement for them to have gone 10-8 on the road this month. From here on in, the Twins play more at home than away, and against easier competition than they faced in the first half (other than 3 home games with the Yankees, the Twins are done with the Titans of the East). Three more months like they just had should be enough to keep them in contention right to the end.

Only hitters with 20+ AB and pitchers with at least 6.1 IP qualify for grades this month.

Getting It Done

Joe Mauer - How awesome was he in May? His OPS dropped by .441 month-to-month, and he still finished June at .897. That number, along with 3 HR, is probably what we can expect from Joe going forward.

Jason Kubel - Led the team with 8 HR and 17 RBI in about 15 fewer PA than Morneau had, and showed he could be competent in the field. In order to keep his bat in the lineup, Gardy should routinely send Kubel out there on the days Mauer is the DH.

Nick Punto - He only got to play in 11 games, which is a shame, because .323/.371./355 is about as much as we can reasonably hope to get from him at the plate.

Joe Nathan - 12 appearances, 11 SV in 11 chances, 0 ER on 4 H and 1 BB in 11.2 IP with 18 K. It's hard to imagine a closer having a better month.

RA Dickey - Signed to be a long reliever (if not AAA starter), Dickey has pitched his way into a setup role. This month he allowed just 1 ER in 13.2 IP with a 0.80 WHIP and 7.9 K/9.

Matt Guerrier - Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the improved starting rotation, Guerrier made 14 appearances this month, but only totaled 10.1 IP. Hopefully that will keep him fresher for the 2nd half this time around.

Nick Blackburn - The Twins' most valuable pitcher of the first half. The innings he's been able to rack up every fifth turn have done incalculable good for what was at times a beleaguered bullpen. I don't know if he can keep it up much longer, but I'm enjoying it while it lasts.

Glen Perkins - Whatever was troubling him in May seemed to get fixed, as Perkins averaged 6.2 IP in his first 3 starts back from the DL, with a terrific 1.10 WHIP.

Scott Baker - Just 3 HR allowed in 39.1 IP over 6 strong starts. This is the guy we thought would be the ace when the season began.

Bobby Keppel - 6.1 scoreless IP to begin his tenure with the Twins. Maybe he can match Anthony Swarzak's debut...

So Far, So Good

Brendan Harris - Taking over as the regular SS, Harris has provided steady defense and pretty good production at the plate, although the strikeout rate was a little higher than I'd like to see this month.

Michael Cuddyer - .278/.333/.481 is pretty close to what I would expect from a healthy Cuddyer over any reasonably lengthy stretch of games.

Joe Crede - Not nearly the power he displayed in May, but I'll still take a .323 OBP from him along with his stellar defensive contributions.

Francisco Liriano - Excellent progress in the BB and HR department, leading to a good 3.77 ERA and an average of 6 IP/start.

Jose Mijares - He keeps getting away with it, but his shaky control (5 BB in 6.1 IP) is going to get the better of him if he doesn't clean it up soon.

Luis Ayala - He was actually more or less doing what he was expected to do when his attitude got on Gardy's bad side. No big loss, I guess.

Need To Pick It Up

Denard Span - Even when nothing's falling in for him, Span still does a great job of working counts, as evidenced by his 8/8 K/BB ratio. But yeah, he needs to hit better than .208/.311/.302.

Justin Morneau - An .801 OPS with a 14/14 K/BB ratio and 5 HR would be a great month for a lot of guys, but for Morneau, it's not his best.

Delmon Young - While I appreciate the 5 XBH (however many came courtesy of the Metrodome roof) and the .284 BA, 18 K in 67 AB is a problem, especially when it's accompanied by 0 BB.

Carlos Gomez - I think I'm seeing growth from Gomez. He seems to be having good ABs more consistently. But he still manages to throw enough of them away to keep his numbers way down.

Brian Buscher - With his superlative plate discipline (.142 IsoD), Buscher would be a tremendous hitter if he could get anything to fall in.

Matt Tolbert - At least he's drawing walks, because he can't do anything when he swings.

Mike Redmond - His age is really catching up to him. I would advise mixing Jose Morales in more on Mauer's off days.

Kevin Slowey - Albert Pujols was the difference between Slowey landing down here or in the previous category. The 10 BB in 26.1 IP is unheard of, and I expect that to be cleaned up in July.

Anthony Swarzak - 2 of his 3 starts this month were clunkers, but the last one was a gem. He's been dealing again since he returned to Rochester.

Sean Henn - We threw away Craig Breslow for this?

I Wish They All Could Be Interleague Games

With Sunday's win over St. Louis, the Twins completed their interleague schedule with a record of 12-6. It's the 7th time in Gardy's 8 seasons as manager that the Twins have had a winning record vs. the NL.

Part of that success can be attributed to the Twins playing a National League style of baseball, not relying on slugging to provide their offense as so many AL teams do. That's been part of the story in previous years, but not so much in 2009, as the Twins currently sit 10th in MLB in SLG% and 12th in HR.

Another part was that the Twins' weakness at DH meant that their offense wasn't drastically hurt when they went to NL parks. Typically, the Twins have employed a bench player at DH, unlike the many AL teams that use professional hitters who are seriously liabilities if they have to play in the field. So subtracting the DH from the lineup didn't hurt the Twins very much. But that is also not the case this year, as Jason Kubel is currently 2nd among regular DHs in OPS. Thankfully, he's at least as competent a LF as Delmon Young, so keeping his bat in the lineup didn't have a corresponding debit on the defensive side of the ledger.

Were they successful because they were playing weak competition? On the whole, the NL is weaker than the AL, but because the Twins had to play half of their schedule against the top 2 teams in the NL Central, the aggregate winning percentage of their interleague opponents came to .507. Could we expect a team that is 6 games under .500 vs. AL opponents to go sweeping through above average NL competition? In particular, could we expect a team that is 12 games under .500 vs. AL opponents on the road to go 6-3 in NL ballparks?

For me, the difference was that in the NL parks, the Twins were able to hide their weaknesses better. In the NL, each team fields a lineup of 8 (hopefully) competent hitters + the starting pitcher. In the AL, you get to use 9 good hitters. The Twins have 7: Denard Span, Brendan Harris, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Kubel, Michael Cuddyer and Joe Crede. And that's just when everybody's healthy, when Mauer is able to play consecutive days, etc. Against AL opponents, the Twins often have to face a lineup with 2 better players than they can field; in the NL, it's just one.

Denard Span was out for 5 of the Twins' 9 interleague road games, but he wasn't missed. That's because Carlos Gomez stepped up in his stead, going 7 for 16 with 5 R in the 4 games he started. Mauer only had to sit out one of those games; the Twins lost. Crede had to sit out one of those games; the Twins lost. Cuddyer had to sit out 2; the Twins lost one and won the other despite scoring only 2 R.

The best thing about the Twins playing in NL parks is that they don't have to put Delmon Young in the lineup. Of Twins hitters who have accumulated at least 50 PA this season, Young ranks dead last in WARP at -0.9. He doesn't just not help, he hurts. The 7 players I mentioned earlier are 1-7 in WARP, of course, and Gomez is 8th, at 0.7, thanks to his superhuman range in CF. It should be clear, then, that the best lineup the Twins can put on the field does not include Young, both in terms of offensive and defensive contributions.

NL rules enabled the Twins to do without their worst player this past week. Thanks to that, improved play from Gomez and Nick Punto, and the easier task the Twins' pitchers had facing other pitchers instead of DHs, turned the Twins from a bad road team into a good one. If only it were easier for Gardy to avoid his worst player in the AL

More Changes Please

Twins 5, Astros 2
Astros 6, Twins 5
Astros 4, Twins 1

I think most Twins fans expected a 6-game home stand against 2 mediocre NL teams to turn out better than 3-3. I certainly did. What went wrong? Partly, it was a bit of a bad draw in terms of facing both Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez, two of the better starters in the NL. It was likely that one of them would totally shut the Twins down, which Rodriguez did on Sunday. That made the Saturday game very important, but the Twins couldn't get it done despite hitting 4 HR and putting up 5 R in support of Scott Baker. That was mostly because the bullpen, specifically Sean Henn and Luis Ayala, once again failed to put up zeros.

Gardy might have been better off leaving Baker in there, even at 102 pitches. Baker had already retired Darin Erstad twice, and Erstad is a shadow of his former self. That was probably a better matchup than Henn against any rightie on the Houston bench. I know Baker has had some good games go bad awfully quickly in the late innings this year, but he's the ace, and Henn is just journeyman AAA filler. For as long as Gardy has left Blackburn out there recently, you'd think he could do the same with Baker.

On Sunday, the game was lost in the first inning as the Astros put up 3 R on a bunt single, SB, a groundball single, a 2B Kubel lost in the ceiling, an RBI groundout (that would have been an inning-ending DP had Kubel caught the previous batted ball) and a shoe-top grounder over third for an RBI 2B. Nice pitching by Perkins in avoiding hard-hit balls, but sketchy defense turned it into a big inning.

These two losses highlight the Twins' main problem since the rotation has righted itself: lack of depth. The Twins have a championship core this season with Denard Span (.380 OBP), Joe Mauer (1.202 OPS), Justin Morneau (.968 OPS), Jason Kubel (.925 OPS), Michael Cuddyer (.874 OPS), Joe Crede and Brendan Harris (.753 OPS, 3 E between them) leading the lineup and the gelling young rotation handing the ball to one of the game's best closers and a solid setup combination of Matt Guerrier (2.84 ERA) and Jose Mijares (2.57 ERA), plus the surprisingly solid RA Dickey (2.56 ERA) in long-relief. But those guys can't play every day - Span hit the DL, Mauer needs his rest, Gardy can't overwork Guerrier like he did last year, Crede is brittle, and even Morneau finally needed a day off. And when Span's ABs have to go to Carlos Gomez or Delmon Young, when Mauer is replaced by Mike Redmond, when Matt Tolbert and Brian Buscher get starts in the IF, the Twins don't score as many runs. When Morneau or Crede don't have their superior gloves on the field, outs turn into hits. And when the lesser bullpen arms have to take the mound, leads slip away and close games turn into blowouts.

In order to address this, the Twins designated Ayala for assignment and promoted Bobby Keppel from AAA Rochester. Though Ayala hasn't been as good as some of the other bullpen members, he's recovered from a poor start to the season, and was pitching at a level I think we could expect of him based on his recent track record. His ERA stands at 4.18. Did they expect something much different? I didn't. It's Sean Henn who's overmatched, taking 3 losses in just 13 appearances while amassing a 7.36 ERA and allowing lefties to hit .350/.435/.800 against him in 11 IP. I hate to belabor the point, but since this move was made, Craig Breslow has pitched 12.1 IP, with a 2.92 ERA and has held lefties to .217/.345/.283 for the season. If dumping Ayala turns out like that, we're in for it.

Though Rob Delaney, Steve Tolleson and Danny Valencia have recently been brought up to Rochester, there is still precious little there that we can look forward to as an upgrade over players presently on the roster. Therefore, the Twins best hope for succeeding in a very weak division this season is to improve the team by making trades. There are 2 areas of surplus for the Twins: young OF and young SP. Kevin Mulvey and Anthony Swarzak won't both be able to find rotation spots next year - trade one. What is David Winfree going to do in the corner OF that isn't already being done by Young? Is Ben Revere going to be able to bring anything to the table that Denard Span isn't already doing? Isn't Tolleson essentially the same player as Harris?

Yes, Bill Smith, try to shake things up, but in a way that actually makes the team better, OK? Look over the system, find redundancies, be realistic about who fits into the future of this team, and then bring the team the missing pieces it needs to take charge of this division.

PS: I don't want to forget to mention Delmon Young's 1st HR since April! How about that trot? 2+ months between dingers, and yet he sauntered around the bases like it was no big deal. Amazing.

Little Changes

Cubs 3, Twins 2
Twins 8, Pirates 2
Pirates 8, Twins 2
Twins 5, Pirates 1

I'm pretty satisfied with how things have gone since Saturday. The Twins have only allowed 14 R over the past 4 games, more than half of them in last night's loss. As for the other loss, the lineup was without Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer and Joe Crede, so it's understandable that they were stymied by a quality pitcher like Ted Lilly. My only real regret is that I dropped Cuddyer from my fantasy team on Sunday night pending a waiver pickup of Russell Martin, who can't possibly continue to slump as badly as he has the rest of the season. At the time I made the claim, it looked likely that Cuddyer would go on the DL, so no big loss. By the time it went through, however, Cuddyer had his cortisone shot and it was Span who hit the DL. Naturally, since losing him from my roster on Wednesday, Cuddyer has gone 4 for 6 with 2 walks, a HR and a 3B. Oh well.

Had I been able to muster the energy to write something on Monday, it would have been about how the Twins needed to get Jesse Crain off of the 25-man roster. Luckily, someone in the front office is a step ahead of me, for once, and Crain was sent to Rochester to make room for Glen Perkins to come off the DL. AAA is definitely the best place to find out whether Crain can put himself back together. He was killing the Twins, having allowed 5 ER on 10 H and 5 BB over his last 6 appearances (4.1 IP).

I share Gardy's assessment that Wednesday night was actually a pretty good start for Liriano. I'm especially pleased by the 6/1 K/BB ratio. He's still got to be better with men on base, but he's headed in the right direction.

Nick Blackburn found himself just about exactly where he was last Thursday afternoon, cruising into the 8th inning with a 3-0 lead. While he'd been fortunate for most of the first 7 IP last week to have some hard-hit balls find Twins' gloves, the 4 H he allowed through the first 7 IP today were all bloopers and bleeders - hardly anything was hit hard. He walked one in the 8th, then came out to a 5-0 9th inning lead thanks to Brian Buscher's 2nd HR (great to see him swing assertively at a hittable fastball!). Blackburn was not as effective in the last inning, but his luck held as the first 2 batters lined out to Crede and Nick Punto was able to end the game on a diving stop in the hole. In between, the Pirates were able to get a 2-out run on a 2B and RBI single. A fine performance for Blackburn's first CG win.

By the way, the two 2B Blackburn allowed both probably would have been caught by Span - Cuddyer's limited range was really on display today, though he certainly made up for it at the plate. This reminds me of the other little change I was happy to see today: Cuddyer hitting ahead of Crede. Cuddy's got .056 points of OBP on Crede - that alone makes the move a good decision. Never mind that he's also topping Crede in BA and SLG%, and they're now tied in HR.

Things are beginning to come together for the Twins - I can't wait to see what the offense can do once Span returns next week.

4th Split: 8-8

Overall Record: 32-32
2nd in AL Central by 3 games

Other Splits: 7-9, 8-8, 9-7

The way things have gone for the Twins on the road this year, I shouldn't be too disappointed to see them finish a split with 12 road games at .500. It's just too bad that things fell apart on Thursday afternoon, or the Twins might already have a winning trip under their belt. Still, these last two weeks have been a return to the kind of baseball I'm used to seeing from the Twins: a lot of 4-3 and 2-1 games with Joe Nathan collecting 7 of his 15 saves.

After putting up 105 runs over the previous 16 games, the Twins managed just 61 R in this split. Brendan Harris added his name to the short list of productive Twins hitters, going .356/.415/.508 over this stretch. But nagging injuries to Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer and Joe Crede left the lineup awfully limp for a few games. Add in the occasional 0-fers from Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, and it shouldn't come as a surprise that the Twins failed to score even 4 R in 11 of the last 16 games.

Luckily, the pitching has officially come together, so 3 or fewer runs was good enough to win 3 games over this span. Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano both delivered QS in their last 2 outings. Nick Blackburn continued to pace the staff with 21 IP over his 3 starts with just 6 ER allowed. Anthony Swarzak had a couple of short outings, but really only had 2 bad innings out of 20.2 IP. Matt Guerrier and Jose Mijares have solidified themselves as the late-inning guys, combining with Nathan to allow only one ER in 16.2 IP. They have been used frequently, but for short stints, so hopefully they'll hold up as the summer moves along.

The defense continues to help the cause, committing just 4 errors, though there were some plays that weren't made that didn't cost a player an E. It seems like half of those came from the recently demoted Alexi Casilla, who is still young enough for there to be hope that he'll learn to keep his head in the game from start to finish. It was a little nerve-racking to see an outfield alignment of Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young out there for a few innings when Span went down, but they seemed to get away with it.

The next split includes another 11 road games, so the Twins will have to keep working to improve their performance away from the Dome. However, 13 of the next 17 are interleague games, the part of the schedule in which the Twins have put the pedal down and left their season-opening mediocrity behind them in recent years. Since 2006, the Twins are 46-13 against NL teams, including their 5-0 record so far this year. Keep that up, and things should be a bit tighter when the Twins face the Tigers in early July.

Bold Prediction: The Twins will be healthily over .500 by the mid-point of the season.

Catching Up

A lot has gone on since my last post, so I'll try to hit the highlights quickly:

Despite allowing just 7 R in 28 IP vs. the Mariners, the Twins dropped 2 out of 3 games, thanks to scoring only 5 R themselves. That can happen when Denard Span, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau combine for just a handful of hits in the series and the rest of the lineup is weak.

Another tough outing for Anthony Swarzak as he lost all control on Monday night in Oakland. Meanwhile, Glen Perkins pitched 7 shutout innings in his last rehab start with Fort Myers, so it's a foregone conclusion that he'll be recalled next week. However, since Perkins' scheduled game was rained out on Monday, it looks like Swarzak will get one more chance on Saturday against the Cubs. I'm sure he'll fare better than he has in his last 2 outings. Either way, I don't think it's been any worse a first stint in the Majors than what Kevin Slowey was able to do in June of 2007, and he's turned out OK.

Alexi Casilla has surely banished himself to the minors again with his shaky fielding in Tuesday night's horrible 9th inning. It makes more sense for him to get regular playing time in Rochester and have Matt Tolbert be the bench guy when Nick Punto returns on Friday anyway. It looks as though Punto will slide over to 2B in order to keep Brendan Harris' bat in the lineup. It should be an upgrade over Casilla or Tolbert, so I guess we can live the limited range.

I hope Span isn't out too long with his dizziness. There is no obvious replacement for him at the top of the lineup.

Carlos Gutierrez was promoted to New Britain last week, the third high-profile promotion within the system after Rob Delaney and Steve Tolleson moved up to Rochester. There are still others that need to move, however: Anthony Slama and Danny Valencia ought to get the call to AAA, and Spencer Steedley and Joe Testa should advance a level as well. A lot of these names are relievers who are old for their levels - they ought to be placed in a league that challenges them, moving through the system more aggressively than some of the younger guys.

There is a dearth of middle-infield depth in the Twins' system, especially at SS, but the Twins used their 4 early-round draft picks on college pitchers. Most analysts were keen on the picks, particularly first-rounder Kyle Gibson, a top-10 (if not top-5) talent who slid to #22 because of a stress fracture in his forearm that cost him significant velocity in his final college starts. The Twins' doctors believe that he will make a full recovery in just a few weeks. (Of course, they also didn't initially think that Francisco Liriano or Pat Neshek would need surgery, and look what happened there.) Still, if all goes well, the Twins could wind up with the steal of the first round. The other guys have the potential to move quickly through the system. And the Twins drafted plenty of MI on day 2, including Gopher 2B Derek McCallum.

Notes on the Cleveland Series

Twins 4, Indians 3
Indians 10, Twins 1
Twins 11, Indians 3

Joe Mauer went 7-11 in this series with 2 BB, HR, 3 RBI and 5 R. It's amazing how routinely he makes solid contact. I can't help feeling like we're watching something very special with him this season.

Joe Nathan got his first 4-out save of the year on Tuesday - the first of 13 straight game days for the Twins. It worked here, and Gardy shouldn't be afraid to do this more going forward.

Anthony Swarzak's rough 3rd inning on Wednesday doesn't trouble me in the least. It was reminiscent of Liriano's outing last Saturday, and any number of Scott Baker's earlier outings. He just failed to scatter the hits he allowed. Had they all been screaming line drives to the gaps, that might have been cause for concern. But most of them were chip shots just over the infield. Out of 21 batters faced, Swarzak gave up about 3 hard hit balls.

Glen Perkins, meanwhile, allowed 3 ER on 2 HR in 4 IP during his first rehab start at Fort Myers. Doesn't sound like the problem has been corrected quite yet.

I think it would be fair to say that Cliff Lee is a far better pitcher than Carlos Gomez is a hitter. Doesn't it show poor character when someone taunts their inferiors? Why should it bother Lee if Gomez wants to get himself out hitting a 2-strike bunt foul? Shrug your shoulders, shut up and pitch.

Just when it looked like the Twins might finally get to Lee after the 7th started with back-to-back singles from Jason Kubel and Brendan Harris, there was Delmon Young to promptly deflate the rally by grounding weakly into a DP on the first pitch. Over his last 10 games, he's 4 for 37 with 0 XBH, 1 BB and 20 K. As he hit into the DP, I yelled, "You're worthless!" at the screen. But that's actually giving him too much credit. Worthless implies he's not helping the team. Not only is he not helping, he's hurting. I hope they find a way not to play him.

Thursday afternoon's game encapsulated the season in a couple of interesting ways. First, the top 5 hitters of the order, Denard Span, Mauer, Justin Morneau, Kubel and Joe Crede, collected 11 of the Twins' 13 H, scored all 11 R, and drove in all 11 RBI. The bottom of the lineup went 2 for 17.

Second, check out Scott Baker's opponents' numbers over the course of the game: .000/.111/.000 the first time through the order, .222/.222/.444 the second time through, then .444/.444/.777 the third time through. He got away with only 2 ER in 7 IP and a season-high 10 K, so it was really a good start. But he's still got some work to do in the later innings.

The Twins play in Seattle tonight, the site of some of last season's greatest horrors in August. Currently, Adrian Beltre is hitting .244/.275/.355 with 4 HR, and Ken Griffey Jr. is hitting .223/.333/.403. Let's try not to let these mediocre hitters beat us again, OK?

May Review

Twins' Record: 14-16
Overall Record: 25-27, 3rd in AL Central 4.5 games back

In more than 20 years of following the Twins, I've never seen a month like this. They suddenly turned into the Rangers, maybe even the Yankees, at the plate. Looking at the AL team batting stats for the month, the Twins are in the top 3 in R, H, BA, OBP, SLG%, and HR! Yes, after accumulating just 111 HR in all of 2008, the Twins sent 41 balls over the fence in their 30 May games, putting them on pace to finish the season with 178 long balls. With the pitching improving to the middle of the pack, and the defense still leading the league in fewest errors and unearned runs, the Twins were able to outscore their opponents 168-138.

And yet, that didn't translate into a winning month. Despite all of the hitting, there were too many men left on base. For all the HR, too many came with no one on base. The pitching improved, but still let the team down in key situations. And, as we saw on Saturday in Tampa, there's more to good defense than just avoiding errors. As they seemed to do routinely late last season, the Twins would follow narrow, agonizing losses with emphatic wins, inflating their run differential without doing much for their record. The textbook definition of this phenomenon is their lone win on the 7-game road trip to NY and Chicago, a 20-1 affair that enabled them to come home having scored more runs than they'd allowed despite a 1-6 record.

The road seems to be the trouble - so far the Twins are just 6-16 away from the Dome. That ugly winning percentage will have to change in a hurry, as the Twins play 18 of their 27 games in June on the road. However, 9 of those games are inter-league, where the Twins have thrived in recent years, and 7 others are against the bottom-feeders of the AL West, Seattle and Oakland. That will be a welcome change after an exceedingly tough May schedule - the aggregate winning percentage of the teams the Twins faced this month was .528. In June, it will be .475.

This month is the time to make a move. The Twins have been able to put together fantastic Junes in recent years. If they keep swinging the way they did in May, while continuing to improve their pitching performance, we should see them easily over .500 when the month ends.

The grades will illustrate another remarkable feature of the Twins' performance this month: just how large the gap was between the guys who were playing well and the guys who weren't. We'll hope to see the guys who have been struggling start to rise up toward their expected levels as the stars inevitably slow down. Minimum 30 PA for hitters and 8 IP for pitchers.

Getting It Done

Joe Mauer - Ya think? .414/.500/.838 with a 16/19 K/BB ratio and 2 more HR than he hit in all of 2008. Now that he's been sensibly moved into the #2 spot in the order, it is much more difficult for opponents to avoid pitching to Justin Morneau with men on base.

Justin Morneau - He's no Joe Mauer, but .361/.459/.713 with 9 HR and 29 RBI isn't too shabby. After showing little patience in April, he evened his K/BB rate at 20/20 after Mauer's return. It's been amazing to watch those two hit consecutively.

Michael Cuddyer - This is why I didn't think the Twins needed to panic about finding a middle-of-the-order RH bat during the offseason. Not that I expect Cuddyer to hit .312/.395/.651 with 8 HR and 26 RBI every month. But added to his slow start in April, he's now on pace for a season of .276/.363/.514 with 27 HR and about 100 RBI - just about what he delivered in 2006, his last fully healthy season.

Joe Crede - This month was about the best we could hope for from Crede. A decent .265 BA, leading to a rather poor .311 OBP, but 6 HR and 3 2B cranked the SLG% up to .574. And the defense is still terrific. If only it weren't so hard to keep him on the field.

Jason Kubel - Mostly singles this month from Kubel, but enough of them to finish the month with a .329 BA. He's been striking out a little too often, however. I'd like to see him be more selective going forward - that will probably help him find pitches to drive.

Denard Span - With 5 guys behind him walloping the ball over the field, Span's job is simple: get on base. And that he did, with an OBP of .388 and 19/17 K/BB ratio. He's still a little too susceptible to the called strikeout over the inside corner, but otherwise he's showing no signs of dropping off from his excellent rookie campaign.

Mike Redmond - At his advanced age, I can't imagine Redmond doing any better than he did in May: .310/.333/.379 with 2 doubles.

Nick Blackburn - Leave it to the #4 starter to lead the rotation in IP and ERA for the month. After a lousy first start in Detroit (abetted by just as shaky defense) Blackburn finished at least 6 innings in his remaining 5 starts, leaving the game with the Twins leading or tied each time.

Kevin Slowey - After 2 dicey outings to begin the month, including a rain-shortened start in Baltimore, Slowey completed at least 6 IP with 2 of fewer ER allowed in his final 4 starts of the month. Overall, he had a typically outstanding 25/3 K/BB ratio.

Anthony Swarzak - Filling in for the injured (and struggling) Glen Perkins, Rochester's best pitcher (and one of the organization's top prospects) shut out the Brewers in his MLB debut, then matched Josh Beckett for 6 innings before taking a hard luck loss on Thursday. No need to rush back, Glen.

R.A. Dickey - Other than that disastrous outing vs. KC when he entered with the bases loaded and wasn't allowed to use his knuckler, Dickey has been money. He's done exactly what a long-reliever should, not only eating innings (4 or more IP in each of his last 3 appearances), but limiting any further damage (only 2 ER in his last 16.2 IP).

Joe Nathan - If only he could have that first night in NYC back, when he was touched for 3 ER on 3 H and 2 BB (one intentional) in 0.2 IP. However, in his other 12 appearances, he allowed 0 ER on only 6 H and 1 BB with 13 K in 11.2 IP. Nothing wrong with that.

Matt Guerrier - This month he was back to his old self. Though he allowed 3 solo HR in the first half of the month, he only gave up one other run in the remainder of his appearances, finishing May with a 2.40 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in 15 IP.

Jose Mijares - There weren't too many 1-2-3 innings for Mijares this month, but he's been very good at pitching his way out of jams once he lets men on base. Too bad we can't take back the HR he served up to Ken Griffey Jr. that cost the Twins a win.

So Far, So Good

Luis Ayala - He's been even more prone to allow baserunners than Mijares, but in recent outings has done nearly as good a job leaving them on base. I'd still be nervous going to him with the game on the line, but I don't despair when he takes the mound like I did last month.

Need To Pick It Up

Brendan Harris - He's going to get his share of playing time with Nick Punto on the DL, so he's going to need to improve on his .238/.297/.369 line from May. I still notice an immediate drop off in defensive range when he's at SS.

Carlos Gomez - He hasn't been playing every day, and you can't say he deserves to based on his .237/.303/.322 line. He isn't bunting, he isn't stealing bases. However, the CF defense is phenomenal, and he managed to lower his K/BB ratio to 12/5. All of that makes him a much better candidate for more playing time than...

Delmon Young - In fairness to Young, he was at least hitting for a pretty good average before he missed about 1/3 of the month to be with his family for his mother's death and burial. Since returning, he hasn't had a clue at the plate, and overall, he still had 0 XBH in 55 AB with a 22/3 K/BB ratio. Add to that the fact that he often turns fly-outs into doubles in the field, and we're probably looking at the least valuable player on the team.

Matt Tolbert - When he was called up, I said he probably couldn't do worse than Alexi Casilla, who had about a .475 OPS at the time. I guess he's technically been an upgrade, hitting .189/.265/.257 for a .522 OPS. His greatest contribution to the team may be that he finally forced Gardy to move Mauer up to the #2 slot in the batting order.

Brian Buscher - There is an incremental acceleration in the game between AAA and the Majors, and so far I'm not sure that Buscher, who was a dominant hitter at Rochester, has that extra gear. He's just a little late on fastballs in the zone, he's just tentative enough in the field to turn outs into base hits. I wish there were somebody at Rochester who could do the job better, but I don't see it right now.

Nick Punto - Even 2007 was better than this. While he's been a pretty reliable glove at SS, and he's done a good job of working counts (11/9 K/BB ratio), he just can't seem to square the ball up when he puts it in play. .152/.244/.182 is impossible to live with, even from your #9 hitter.

Scott Baker - He's getting closer to form, as evidenced by his 1.11 WHIP and 27/6 K/BB ratio in 38 IP. But he hasn't been able to scatter his hits, as we saw when his 5-6 inning gems vs. KC and Detroit turned into 5 ER outings with shocking quickness. And he's still giving up way too many HR, 2 each in his last 3 starts.

Francisco Liriano - Also can't avoid the big inning. He brought a lot of it on himself by walking 17 batters in 30.1 IP. Though he's lasted just 4 IP in 3 straight starts, I was encouraged by his last outing in Tampa. Yes, he allowed 4 ER in a grueling 47 pitch inning, but he got grounders with men on base, and there were hardly any hard-hit balls against him.

Glen Perkins - As good as he was in April, he was bad in May, serving up 6 HR in 18 IP with a 10.00 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. I hope the shoulder trouble that sent him to the DL was the problem and that he'll be an 8 IP pitcher again when he returns. But I'm not shipping Swarzak out to make room for him either, and the bullpen doesn't seem like an awful alternative.

Jesse Crain - In a brutal 5-game sequence this month, Crain allowed an ER in each outing, totaling 6 ER in just 3 IP and taking 2 losses, bailed out of a 3rd by Joe Crede's walk-off Grand Slam. He looks like a shell of the confident pitcher we saw in spring training and the first half of April.

Craig Breslow - His April funk spilled over into May, as he continued to serve up BB and HR at an unprecedented pace. Reeling from their taxing series vs. the Yankees, the Twins called up Sean Henn when Perkins went on the DL, necessitating another move when Swarzak was called up to fill the rotation hole. They opted to put Breslow on waivers, where he was promptly claimed by Oakland. Since then he's allowed 2 ER on 3 H and 1 BB with 7 K in 6.2 IP. Whoops!

3rd Split: 9-7

Overall Record: 24-24
2nd in AL Central by 3.5 games

Other splits: 7-9, 8-8

It's been a streaky couple of weeks, but things are generally trending in the right direction for the Twins. Facing a slate of first-place teams - plus the White Sox in Chicago - I said last time that the offense was going to have to carry the team through this stretch. And did it ever! The Twins scored 105 runs over these past 16 games, better than 6.5 R/G on average. They put up 6 or more runs in 8 of these recent games, and were victorious 7 times. Unfortunately, they only came up with 4 R/G in NY, which was just enough for them to lose all 4 games by 1 run or in extra innings. Had they been able to do just a little bit more in any of those games, this split would have been great instead of just good.

As I noted earlier, there is a dark cloud hanging over this offensive explosion: almost all of the production has come from just 6 players. Denard Span (.364/.478/.436, 11 R), Joe Mauer (.389/.500/.815, 8 HR, 22 RBI), Justin Morneau (.383/.493/.800, 6 HR, 18 RBI), Michael Cuddyer (.311/.400/.672, 5 HR, 13 RBI), Jason Kubel (.413/.481/.500, 8 RBI) and Joe Crede (.256/.304/.628, 5 HR, 14 RBI) did just about all of the damage. Gardy wisely moved Mauer up to the #2 slot in the order, eliminating an easy out between him and Span; the Twins have won all 6 games with Mauer in that position.

Just as importantly, the pitching staff seems to be finding itself. They have allowed 3 or fewer runs in 6 of the last 7 games. This is especially due to Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey, who in their 7 starts during this stretch combined to allow just 12 ER in 48.2 IP, each completing at least 6 IP every time out. Anthony Swarzak made an impressive big-league debut with 7 scoreless innings - I'll be watching his next couple of starts with great interest. Scott Baker claims to have made a mechanical adjustment that certainly yielded good results in his last start - we'll see if he can repeat it.

Just 6 more errors over this split, so with 19 total for the season the Twins are still leading the league in fewest errors and unearned runs allowed. They are in the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency - the percentage of balls in play turned into outs - but I think that says more about the guys on the mound than the guys in the field. As the starters continue to improve, I expect the Twins to move up the defensive efficiency leader board.

The Twins have a much easier draw in the coming split, although it will include 12 road games, including the dreaded early June West Coast trip. The Twins are just 5-14 on the road - 2nd to last in the Majors in terms of winning percentage. They're going to have to turn that around starting this weekend if they want to keep the positive trend going.

Bold Prediction: Francisco Liriano is going to give the Twins 18+ IP with an ERA lower than 4.20 over his next 3 starts.

Drop Off

Red Sox 6, Twins 5

I was disappointed that the Twins' offense didn't have a better showing against Brad Penny. Part of that was because, unlike the other time they faced him in April, his fastball had some movement and he was throwing his breaking stuff for strikes. The other part had to do with the Twins' lineup. With Denard Span still recovering from the flu, Joe Crede with a swollen hand after being HBP yesterday and Joe Mauer just getting a day off, the lineup began with Carlos Gomez and Matt Tolbert in front of Justin Morneau. Span's OBP is .100 points higher than Gomez' and Mauer's OBP is literally double Tolbert's. Not surprisingly, the table wasn't set. Span's absence also forced Delmon Young into the lineup - he went 0-4 with 3 K for the second straight game. I guess I'll be charitable and write that off to him losing his timing after being out for a week and a half. Anyway, this was not the lineup that has been putting up so many runs this month.

And yet, they still managed to knock Penny out after 5.1 IP and score 5 R in the game. The last 2 came on Mauer's 2-out, PH HR off of Jonathan Papelbon. In just 23 games and 81 AB, Mauer already has 11 HR, 25 R, and 31 RBI while hitting .444/.530/.914. I don't think he needs to get another hit this week in order to win the AL Player of the Month award. Mike Redmond, in 2/3 the AB, has 0 HR, 2 R and 3 RBI while hitting .259/.322/.315. Obviously, Redmond wasn't going to be anywhere near as good as Mauer this year, but that's as drastic a drop off in production as we'll see from any starter to his backup.

Francisco Liriano got hit around a bit, but he pitched better than his line indicates. The big positive I'll take away from that outing was the 7 K and 0 BB in 4 IP. Remember, it was when he started limiting his walks last year at AAA when things started to take off for him. As for the 11 H, almost half of them were grounders that found their way through. In his 4 IP, Liriano didn't have a single ground ball turned into an out - that's unusually bad luck. And we can point the finger again to the lineup, where Brian Buscher was manning the hot corner instead of Crede. In the 3 run 3rd inning, there were 3 sharply hit balls that got by Buscher - one that went right through him, one just out of reach to his right, one just to his left. It's not difficult to imagine Crede at least knocking down all of those balls, 2 of which went for 2B and the other an RBI single. Maybe Liriano could have hung around a little longer with the Twins' best defense on the field.

All of this brings into stark relief something that might be easy to overlook when the Twins are scoring 5.3 R/G: there are actually only 6 productive hitters in the Twins' lineup (Span, Mauer, Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Crede). None of the other 7 position players has an OPS over .650. Nick Punto and Carlos Gomez at least contribute with above-average fielding, but it's a pretty weak team on the whole. That just goes to show what an incredible level of production we're seeing from the top 6. If they cool off at some point - and they almost certainly will - somebody else had better step up or it's going to be a long summer.

Minor League Notes

Danny Valencia drew 3 BB yesterday to raise his season line to .339/.432/.597 with a 26/20 K/BB ratio in 124 AB. He's hit .305/.367/.521 in 433 PA at AA, and has clearly improved from '08 to '09. Send him to Rochester already.

Mmmmmmm, Cheese

Twins 11, Brewers 3
Twins 6, Brewers 2
Twins 6, Brewers 3

After a discouraging 1-6 road trip, it's nice to come back to home, sweet Dome. The Brewers hadn't lost a series in weeks, but were easily taken apart by the Twins' offensive juggernaut. Led by Joe Mauer (5-8, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 RBI), Justin Morneau (6-10, 3B, HR, 7 RBI), Michael Cuddyer (5-11, 3B, HR, 2 BB, 5 RBI) and Joe Crede (4-10, 2 HR, 3 RBI), the middle of the order didn't miss a beat despite losing Jason Kubel to a swollen knee for the series. Cuddyer thrillingly gave the Twins their second cycle of the season, Morneau capped the series with the Twins' 4th grand slam of the year, and Mauer surpassed his HR production from all of 2008 in just his 22nd game.

Even better than the continuing onslaught from the hitters was the performance of the Twins' starting pitching. Kevin Slowey lasted into the 8th inning, Scott Baker lasted into the ninth, and Anthony Swarzak completed seven shutout innings. It was a most auspicious major league debut for Swarzak, who has been pitching very well ever since being promoted to Rochester. With Glen Perkins struggling in his outings prior to being placed on the DL, I wouldn't be so hasty about sending Swarzak to the bullpen when Perkins returns. We'll see how the next couple of starts go, but Swarzak has a higher upside than Perkins, who could actually do the Twins a lot of good as a middle reliever.

Now, bring on the Red Sox. I've been hoping for weeks that the Twins would get another chance at Brad Penny. He was lucky that they didn't destroy him in the 2nd half of that double-header in April - so many balls were hit hard and to the deepest parts of Fenway Park. The way the Twins are swinging right now, they're going to tear Penny apart if he brings the same stuff he had on that day.

The Last Laugh

White Sox 6, Twins 2
White Sox 7, Twins 4
Twins 20, White Sox 1

That was cathartic, huh?

After following up their hard-fought, narrow sweep at the hands of the Yankees with 2 rather poor games in the Windy City, the Twins emphatically ended their 6-game losing streak with their best all-around game since 2002 (a 23-2 drubbing of Cleveland, with both runs coming on Jim Thome solo HR, if I recall correctly).

Facing a pair of tough LHP in Mark Buerhle and John Danks, runs figured to be at a premium, so the Twins' starters for those games, Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano, needed to be a whole lot finer than they were. Baker issued a season-high 4 BB and served up 2 more HR, leaving after 5 IP with 105 pitches thrown. Liriano skated through 3 scoreless innings before allowing 7 R in the 4th, capped by the 2nd HR of the inning, Jermaine Dye's grand slam. He was gone after 4 IP and 90 pitches with 3 BB and only 1 K.

In each game, Scott Podsednik was picked off first, but wound up with a SB anyway when Nick Punto dropped Justin Morneau's throw on Tuesday and Michael Cuddyer's throw hit Podsednik for an E on Wednesday. (All 3 of Cuddyer's E have come playing 1B. In Chicago.) The offense's string of games with 5+ BB ended as they accumulated just 4 BB in the first 2 games. They continued to struggle with RISP, scoring 5 of their 6 R on HR or SF.

But then, the offense that had been bottled up all week burst out with an orgy of hitting that we hadn't seen in nearly 2 years. 20 H. Another 5 BB. 4 HR, including 3 with men on base! 6 of the starters with multi-hit games. Matt Tolbert went yard, for crying out loud!

Was the secret moving Joe Mauer up to the #2 slot? I was going to comment about how poorly that slot had performed for the Twins this year, but Gardy noticed and did something about it. He's too prone to leaving spring training with grand ideas about how players ought to perform, but once the team gets into late May, he makes adjustments that produce results. This performance by the offense should certainly reinforce the new lineup for awhile. I still think Cuddyer is swinging well enough right now to get a chance to break up what was, today, a string of 4 straight lefties at the top of the order.

Nick Blackburn, for his part, stayed pretty aggressive and won his first career game at the Cell. He got a huge break in the 3rd when Alexi Ramirez' bases-loaded liner went straight to Joe Crede, who found Podsednik too far off 1B for a DP. Blackburn got Dye to end the inning, and the Sox never threatened him again.

So here's the punchline: thanks to this afternoon's laugher, the Twins not only outscored the Sox in this series, they actually scored more runs than they allowed on the whole 1-6 road trip (42-35). Suddenly, the Twins' run differential for the season is only -6, and their 19-23 record starts to look rather unjust. Particularly their 8-12 May record; they're +17 in run differential for those 20 games. Hopefully, they won't end up like Cleveland last year.

Roster Move

In order to make room for Anthony Swarzak, who will indeed get a chance to take Glen Perkins' spot in the rotation, the Twins tried to clear Craig Breslow through waivers, but promptly lost him to the Oakland A's. Effectively, this means that the Twins traded Breslow for Sean Henn. Henn has been solid at Rochester this year, but he has lousy career numbers in the Bigs. Worst of all, he's not particularly good at getting out lefties: they have about a .760 OPS against him in his career. Breslow held lefties to about .640. He was off to a ghastly start this year, with BB and HR rates so unprecedented that there wasn't much reason to think they'd continue. Henn, meanwhile, has outperformed his career rates at Rochester, and so has nowhere to go but down.

This was another dumb move by Mr. Smith. Swarzak should have been called up on Tuesday, or Perkins should have been DLed today, but there was no reason to involve Henn or risk Breslow at all. But the strategic failure goes beyond these guys. It's this mental block everybody seems to have about there being more than 2 LHP in the bullpen. As long as 1 of them is awesome at getting out lefties and the others can also get out righties, who cares? Breslow and Jose Mijares, when pitching up to their ability, can get out both. The rationale for letting Dennys Reyes walk away was that Breslow and/or Mijares could fulfill his role for less money. Well, neither has filled his role, and now Henn will be asked to do it with his .760 OPS against. Reyes, meanwhile, has allowed a .472 OPS against lefties for the Cardinals, with 7 K and 1 BB against 28 batters faced so far. Think of all the lefties that have hurt the Twins' 'pen this year, and how nice it would have been to have an arm like that at their disposal. Sigh.

Minor League Notes

Whatever was bothering Alexi Casilla at the plate in the Majors, he didn't take it with him to Rochester. He's hitting .353/.411/.471 with 3 3B and a 8/5 K/BB ratio since his demotion. Tolbert had better keep hitting like he did on Thursday. And Danny Valencia and Anthony Slama have added to their promotion cases this week. Valencia hit his 5th HR today, raising his season line to .324/.409/.595, good for 2nd in the Eastern League in OPS. Slama struck out 2 in a scoreless inning on Wednesday, and now has 35 K in 22.1 IP with a 1.61 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, and still just the one HR allowed.

Meet the New Bronx

Yankees 5, Twins 4
Yankees 6, Twins 4 (11 innings)
Yankees 3, Twins 2 (10 innings)
Yankees 7, Twins 6

I hate the Yankees. I think it started with the Chuck Knoblauch trade, when their already deep team was augmented with the only star player the Twins had at the time. Knoblauch's implosion and several good years of Eric Milton and Christian Guzman helped me get over that, but every time the Yankees sign a smaller team's franchise player, or the Twins lose one of their stars to a huge market team, I'm resentful. Seeing the Yankees lose is one of my greatest pleasures as a baseball fan.

So it's been particularly galling to me that the Twins have utterly failed to bring any defeats to the Yankees in NY during the Gardenhire era. Every season, no matter how talented the Twins are, they absolutely fall apart in the Bronx, losing 19 of 22 games from 2002-2008 by a combined score of 128-67, with 10 of the losses coming by 4 or more runs. Even with the Yankees struggling a bit coming into the series, with A-Rod and Mark Teixeira hitting poorly, with their bullpen among the worst in the league, with Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain getting knocked around early in games, everything seems to go right for them once the Twins come to town.

And yet, I'm not nearly as disgusted as I was with the recent series in New York. The Twins got 3 QS (again, I don't think that should be taken away from a pitcher if he gives up a 4th run after the 6th inning), and when Glen Perkins faltered on Monday, R.A Dickey stepped up with his best outing of the year, 4.1 scoreless IP. The defense committed just one error in the 4 games, and made some outstanding plays, including Joe Mauer's game-saving, diving tag of Brett Gardner on Sunday, probably the best play we will ever see from a catcher. The offense continued to grind away at the opposing pitchers, walking at least 5 times in each game and hitting 7 HR.

The Twins were right there until the last inning in every game, giving the Yanks everything they could handle. I was proud to see the Twins match up so well with a team that many have projected to win 95 or so games, especially on the road. It was like watching the '91 World Series again, except every game was played in Atlanta. The great thing about that series was that the games were so close, every mistake was magnified - you had to play your very best all the time in order to win.

And that's the disappointment of this series, I suppose. The Twins played very well, but not quite well enough. In a series this close, the offense can't stop hitting with men in scoring position. Every HR came with the bases empty. The Yankees' defense certainly took some things away - Denard Span must have wondered how he had offended the baseball gods after he lost 3 potential hits in 4 AB to outstanding plays by the Yankee IF - but there were some giveaways, too. With the bases loaded, 2 out and Mauer on deck, why is Matt Tolbert swinging at a 2-0 pitch? A BB forces in the lead run and brings the game's best hitter to the plate, and Tolbert isn't exactly mashing right now (.179/.283/.231). In such a tight series, everyone has to be disciplined.

But almost everybody whose last name doesn't begin with an "M" had letdowns. In such a tight series, Joe Nathan can't serve up a leadoff triple to the 4th OF. Nick Blackburn can't walk 2 in a row with 2 out in front of Teixeira. Michael Cuddyer can't forget to retouch 2nd base on a fly out. Span can't uncork the worst throw of his big league career on the game-tying SF.

These things are largely within the Twins' power to improve, and hopefully they can look at this series as a test they couldn't quite pass. Now they've seen what they need to do to beat the best on the road, and they have to rise to the challenge and incorporate those things into their game. The good news is, most of the rest of the AL isn't as good as the Yankees, so the level of play the Twins brought to this series should serve them pretty well in Chicago, for example.

That said, the bullpen certainly needs to be improved, and the Twins are making an attempt to do that by bringing up Sean Henn from Rochester while Perkins goes on the DL. Henn's been having a very good year at Rochester, posting a 1.13 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 24 IP with a 32/10 K/BB ratio. For his career, his numbers haven't been too different from Craig Breslow's, so while we might get something like Breslow gave last year, we could also get what Breslow's been giving us this year. I'd still like to see another move made, maybe ditching Luis Ayala in order to give Anthony Swarzak a couple of chances in the rotation.

Minor League Notes

While I'm on the subject, I think there are some guys who should be promoted to Rochester by the end of the month. Rob Delaney and Anthony Slama continue to do very good work for the Rock Cats, though Slama's BB rate has accelerated a bit in recent games. These guys are the best hope for the Twins bullpen future, and the sooner the future becomes the present, the better. Then there's Danny Valencia, who went 2-4 with a 3B on Sunday to raise his line to .313/.405/.552, good for 6th in the IL in OPS. He's cut his K/BB rate from about 4/1 last year to 3/2, about where it was when he was promoted from Fort Myers. If he's going to have a chance to win the 3B job out of spring training next season, the Twins would be wise to give him as much seasoning at AAA as they can this year.

Patience and Perseverance

Twins 6, Tigers 2
Twins 14, Tigers 10 (13 innings)
Twins 6, Tigers 5

At last, a proper Dome stand. After going 2-2, 4-3 and 3-3 to open the season, the Twins were able to win 5 of 6 against Seattle and Detroit, and came within 2 innings of 6-0.

I will remember the first play of Tuesday night's game as the moment when I finally gave up on Delmon Young. It's possible to tolerate his absence of XBH and plate discipline while he's hitting close to .300, but not when he's also failing to make basic plays in the OF, like reading and catching Curtis Granderson's leadoff liner that sailed over his head for a 2B. Bert Blyleven charitably talked about how easy it is to lose the ball in the lights, but I don't think that's what happened. I think Young just misjudged it. Because he's a bad fielder. And he's not getting any better.

You think you've got a migraine, Delmon? Try watching yourself play. The Twins have a ton of OF between the Majors and AAA who can strike out 5 times as often as they walk and hit for minimal power. But most of them can at least catch the ball, and any of them would be more deserving of regular playing time than Young is right now. Take your time with your family this week, Delmon.

Fortunately, Slowey was able to pitch through that "hit" and another charged to him when Matt Tolbert exuberantly cut in front of Nick Punto on a chopper over the mound. Without those, he allowed only 6 H and 2 BB in 6 IP. The 2 BB doubled his season high, which I think was just an indication that plate umpire Ed Rapuano had way too tight of a zone.

That cut both ways, though, and the Twins took advantage of it by drawing another 7 BB against the Tigers' pitchers. The Twins have done well so far against Armando Galarraga. He's one of those pitchers who doesn't actually throw many strikes, but rather hopes that the movement of his pitches on the margins will induce swings out of the zone. If a hitter comes to the plate with the mentality that they're going to take a couple of strikes, they will usually find themselves ahead in the count, especially if the ump is conservative. Once there, they can pick out a pitch to drive.

The difference between a fly to the wall in LF and a HR can be as little as a foot or two - less than 1% of the total distance from home plate. Joe Mauer has that extra 1% this year, and because of it he's already hit nearly as many HR (4) in 35 AB as he had in his first 300 AB (5) last season. He would have had 5, in fact, had LF Clete Thomas not pulled his first-inning drive back onto the field. Mauer simply hit the ball harder in his next AB, getting the ball to nearly the same spot too fast for Thomas to make a leap.

Wednesday night's marathon was directly caused by plate umpire Paul Schrieber's even tighter strike zone. After one trip through the order (during which Glen Perkins needed to throw just 24 pitches), the Tigers must have noticed that Schrieber wasn't calling anything on the corners, so why were they swinging so early in the count? Perkins, who had walked just 8 batters in his first 6 starts, suddenly walked the bases loaded, where 2 runs could come in on a 2-out bouncer up the middle. (A better throw to the plate from Matt Tolbert, who short-hopped Mike Redmond, might have ended the inning with only one run scoring, saving us all a lot of trouble.) In the 5th, Granderson led off with a BB, stole 2nd, and eventually scored on a WP.

The bullpen has to burst into flames at least once every series, and this was the night. Luis Ayala couldn't retire the first 2 batters of the 7th, so in came Matt Guerrier, and Miguel Cabrera immediately took him deep to put the Tigers ahead. To their credit, the rest of the staff managed to put up zeroes until the 13th, when poor Jesse Crain was duped into balking by a feinted SB attempt by Granderson from 3B just as Crain was beginning his windup.

I said that the offense would have to carry the Twins through this next stretch of games. Every time the pitchers put the team behind, there was the offense to answer. 7 more BB. A couple of SF. A 2-run 3B from Denard Span after the Tigers had taken the lead in the top of the 6th. A 2-run, PH HR from Jason Kubel to tie the game in the 8th. With the Tigers' 'pen beleaguered from 2 straight short starts, Jim Leyland was forced to ride Brandon Lyon to the end of the game, though it would end on his 60th pitch.

I questioned whether giving up Span to put PR Nick Punto into scoring position for Matt Tolbert was a wise move, but Tolbert promptly delivered the game-tying single. 2 more BB filled the sacks for Joe Crede, who smashed a hanging slider into the LF seats for an emphatic, walk-off comeback win.

With Justin Verlander in the midst of a hot streak and both bullpens decimated, the game plan in the finale had to be to get as many innings as possible out of Scott Baker while making Verlander throw as many pitches as possible. Baker delivered by facing the minimum through 5 IP, but the 6th started with a broken-bat bloop single and a hit-and-run single to put runners at the corners with nobody out. Baker struck out the next man and got Granderson to pop up, but couldn't escape the jam when the next pitch was lined just over the glove of Jason Kubel in LF. Luckily, it hopped the fence for a ground-rule double, allowing only one run to score. Unluckily, Magglio Ordonez' grounder sneaked into CF scoring 2 more. Then Cabrera whacked another ground-rule double, and Clete Thomas went down to ground a shin-high curveball into CF for 2 more runs.

Suddenly down 5-0, and with Verlander striking out everyone in sight, it looked like the game was over. But Verlander was already approaching 100 pitches, and though he set his career high for K to start the 7th, Brian Buscher lined a single and Nick Punto drew a walk. With Verlander at 122 pitches and a succession of LH batters coming up, Leyland went to LOOGY Bobby Seay. Span greeted him with a single to load the bases, and Tolbert walked, forcing in a run. Joe Mauer grounded into an RBI FC. Justin Morneau pulled the first pitch into RF for an RBI single, then Jason Kubel raked a ground-rule 2B to right-center to bring the Twins within 1. Zach Miner came in, walked Michael Cuddyer, then gave up a bloop single to Crede to put the Twins ahead.

Craig Breslow earned his first win in his best appearance of the year: 1.2 scoreless IP with 0 BB. Guerrier and Nathan got the final 4 outs, and the Twins at last won a day game.

The selectiveness the Twins showed over this home stand will serve them well as they face the Yankees and White Sox on the road. They might need to keep scoring 6 R/G to be successful. I'm encouraged - things have to go better than they went at the old Yankee Stadium, right?

2nd Split: 8-8

Overall Record: 15-17
3rd in AL Central by 3 games

Other splits: 7-9

The series loss to the Royals and poor road trip last week may make it seem like it was a lot worse, but the reality is that the Twins managed to tread water over the last 16 games. After being blown out 97-66 over the first 5 series, they were able to outscore their opponents 81-72 in the 6 series since. One would have expected them to do a little better than .500 with a +9 run differential over 16 games. Then again, they should have lost a lot more than 9 games with a -31 run differential over the first couple weeks, so the Twins are still in a pretty good position given their relatively poor play up to this point.

This stretch was reminiscent of late last season, and not in a good way. The Twins lost 3 games they were leading after 6 innings, thanks mainly to a faltering pitching staff that still boasts only 4 members with ERAs under 4.50. There are some positive signs, as Scott Baker seems to be figuring things out and Jose Mijares has mostly provided an upgrade to the bullpen. But it's frustrating to see light-hitting teams like KC and Seattle managing to put up 5+ runs against the Twins' pitching.

The offense has warmed up, thanks in no small part to the debut of Joe Mauer. While Delmon Young certainly picked up his batting average, as I predicted he would, he had nary an XBH during this stretch. The big improvement from the right side has come from Michael Cuddyer, who hit .207/.254/.310 through the first split, but jumped to .340/.453/.660 with 12 RBI in the second. Joe Crede also heated up, going .300/.333/.525 before a tight hamstring forced him from the lineup this weekend. Unfortunately, Nick Punto and Carlos Gomez have mostly played themselves out of the lineup, and Alexi Casilla played himself back to Rochester - and Matt Tolbert hasn't done a hell of a lot better so far.

The Twins have continued to play largely error-free ball. Their 13 errors is by far the fewest in the AL, and three of the 5 errors they committed during this split came in one game at the hands of a rather harsh official scorer. Too many of the fielding mistakes came from Casilla, and the exchange of him with Tolbert hopefully will at least shore up that area of the team.

130 games to play, the pitching staff still hasn't gotten it going, and the Twins are only 3 games behind the Tigers and Royals. Nothing to worry about yet.

Bold prediction: The offense is going to have to carry the team through the next 5 series (Tigers, @Yankees, @White Sox, Brewers, Red Sox).

25 Good Innings

Twins 11, Mariners 0
Twins 9, Mariners 6
Mariners 5, Twins 3

The Twins came within 2 innings of a weekend sweep in which they never trailed - quite a departure from the first couple weeks of the season. Some observations from the series:

Last season I predicted that Joe Mauer would have a breakout year in the HR department because, with his legs back under him, all those warning track outs to left-center would have just enough extra on them to carry into the seats. It didn't happen in 2008, but so far he has 3 HR in his first 33 AB of 2009, all of them just over the wall in left-center. Mauer has been all-around awesome since coming off the DL. He'll cool off, of course, but there's no reason to think that this can't be his best ever OPS season. Provided he stays healthy, of course.

Right behind him is Justin Morneau, who twice followed Mauer's HR to left with blasts to RF, and came very close to having a 3rd straight game with a HR when his 3rd-inning drive on Sunday hit the top corner of the baggie in deep right-center. (That makes 2 balls from Morneau so far this season that would have been out just about everywhere but the Metrodome.)

As well as those two are swinging, I think it's time to move Cuddyer up in the order, if not between them, then certainly right after Morneau. For Cuddyer, the signal of whether or not he's seeing the ball well is his walk rate, which has been through the roof in recent weeks.

Scott Baker finally put it all together. He was so close to that level in his previous start - his failure last Sunday was in allowing all his hits consecutively - that I feel pretty confident that he's ready to resume his position as the Twins most consistent starter.

Did Francisco Liriano's outing on Saturday remind anybody of Baker's the previous week? He only made it once through the order without a hit, but it still fell apart awfully quickly. Thank goodness he got plenty of run support.

Nick Blackburn has, for the most part, been pretty good about following a poor start with a good one. That was the case again on Sunday, when he pitched his best all-around game of the season, allowing only 5 H and 1 BB in 7 IP with 6 K - nearly matching Baker's outing. I was impressed with how Blackburn was able to pitch out of a runners at the corners with no out jam early in the game.

With Blackburn at 99 pitches and lefties Ichiro and Griffey Jr. due up in the 8th, it made sense to go to the LHP 8th inning guy, Jose Mijares. He was scored upon for the second straight outing, in this case on a game-tying HR to Griffey. Griffey, by the way, is slugging .611 vs. the Twins this year, and just .317 vs. everybody else. Jesse Crain came on and failed to retire a batter, including sending a run home on a WP. The first batter he faced was Adrian Beltre. He's sluggling .680 vs. the Twins, but just .243 vs. everyone else. So what does everybody else know that the Twins pitchers don't?

Sunday was a rare example of a game in which the team that threw drastically more pitches managed to win. I love that the Twins, having chased Seattle's starters early on in the first two games of the series, were able to grind Erik Bedard out of the game with 110 pitches thrown in just 4.2 IP. It's a credit to Bedard's abilities that he was able to limit the damage to just 2 runs. Anyway, that kind of patient approach is going to pay dividends if the Twins will keep it up in future games.

Rainy Days in Baltimore

Orioles 4, Twins 1 (6 innings)
Orioles 5, Twins 4
Things did not go the Twins' way on the back half of this road trip. Where their earlier rain-shortened game in Boston was merciful, coming with the score 10-1 Red Sox with 2 men still in scoring position, Wednesday's early finish was frustrating. The Orioles don't have nearly the bullpen depth that the Sox do, so there was still plenty of time for the Twins to make up a 3-run deficit.

The weather turned it into a game where the team that started fastest was likely to win, and the O's got 3 runs in the first off of Kevin Slowey. Most of the pitches they hit were down in the zone, but the O's raked them for line drives anyway. A grounder over 3B, a HR off the foul pole, a 2B on a play where Michael Cuddyer's throw to second arrived in plenty of time but was off line. I wonder what kind of game Slowey would have been able to make it had he been able to throw more than 3 IP, but the repeated delays caused him to be removed early. At least the shortened game meant that the Twins bullpen didn't have to throw 6 innings.

I thought Glen Perkins did a creditable job on Thursday, lasting 6 IP despite being unable to throw his offspeed pitches for strikes. That enabled to the O's to sit on the fastball, and they opened up and turned on a few for some key hits, especially the 2-out RBI single from Cesar Izturis (which followed Greg Zaun's swinging bunt single to 3B).

The Twins offense, meanwhile, reminded me of the second game against Boston 2 weeks ago, but this time they actually got the 14 H. But 4 R on 14 H + 2 BB is not a good ratio. The Twins hit into 2 DP and saw Delmon Young caught stealing second (he picked the right pitch to run on, and the throw was way off the mark on the 1B side, but Young's jump was so poor that he was still tagged on the hand a few feet from the bag). In addition to that, there was the tumbling catch of a liner hit by Matt Tolbert, the diving catch of a slicing drive hit by Justin Morneau, the leaping catch of a liner hit by Joe Crede. Morneau also drove a ball to the wall in right center. The O's D kept them in the game until the 8th.

In the bottom of that inning, Jose Mijares threw a ton of strikes: 14 of his 18 pitches. But 2 of them missed his location within the zone: a belt-high fastball that Melvin Mora lined into left for a 1-out single, and the 0-2 pitch to Ty Wigginton. Having got ahead with 2 good curveballs, Joe Mauer set up for a fastball low and away, but it drifted over the plate where Wigginton could ground it past Nick Punto for a 2-out hit. Lou Montanez then did a good job going down and lining a 1-2 curveball into LF. Denard Span would have had a good shot at Aubrey Huff at the plate, but he couldn't get a handle on the ball right away, so Crede elected to cut off the throw home and get Wigginton on his way to 3rd.

Second Base Swap
The big news of the series was the demotion of Alexi Casilla to AAA and recall of Tolbert. Tolbert had also started pretty slowly for Rochester, but was starting to get hot in the past week, so the timing may be good here. It's almost certainly an upgrade - it would be tough for Tolbert to fail to exceed Casilla's .167/.231/.202 line, and I can't imagine Tolbert ever losing focus as Casilla often has recently. We'll see whether Casilla can get it going and come back stronger as people like Scott Baker and Jason Bartlett have been able to do.

While we're on the subject of demotions, it might make sense to send Carlos Gomez down to Rochester, where he can get 4-5 PA every day and refine the missing pieces of his game. Jason Pridie, like Tolbert, has heated up recently, and is also a fleet OF and good baserunner. He could fill the role Gomez currently has just about as well, enabling the higher-upside player - Gomez - to get in better position to fulfill his potential.

Minor League Notes
Luke Hughes has also been hot lately for the Redwings; his season line is up to .279/.376/.547 with 5 HR - too many Ks (23 in 86 AB) and E (6) so far, but on the right track. Top 10 prospect Anthony Swarzak has a 2.03 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with a 23/6 K/BB ratio in 31 IP through his first 5 GS. That might put him ahead of Kevin Mulvey on the depth chart (2.96 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 22/12 K/BB in 24.1 IP).