Chicago White Sox
2008 Record: 89-74
You've got to be a little lucky to outplay your projections, and the Sox certainly had their share of good breaks in 2008, at least until Carlos Quentin's bad break late in the season. They were able to turn numerous losses into victories with late-inning HR. Getting exactly what you need exactly when you need it that often is not something that can be expected to be repeated. They'll keep hitting HR in the Cell, but their lineup is starting to get pretty long in the tooth, with 4 middle-of-the-order bats beginning the season at age 32 or older. Outside of Quentin and Jim Thome, there isn't a lot of OBP in their order, so they figure to have trouble scoring when the ball doesn't go over the fence.
Where they're really going to suffer is in run prevention. Subtracting Joe Crede and Orlando Cabrera leaves them with one of the weakest all-around defenses in the league - a lot of balls are going to slip through the infield or drop into the outfield. Add to that a weak rotation after Mark Buehrle and John Danks - Gavin Floyd is primed to regress, and Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon haven't been good since 2005 and have since been injured - and I think the Sox are a team that can expect to allow more runs than they score in 2009.
Minnesota Twins
2008 Record: 88-75
The Twins roster I've summarized over the last few days is essentially the same as that which finished the 2008 season, minus Joe Mauer for the first few weeks (we hope that's all it is). My argument all winter long has been that that roster should be capable of matching their run differential from last season. Though the offense will certainly be less efficient with RISP, I expect the drop in total runs to be offset somewhat by an increase in HR from 1B, 3B, and all 3 OF positions. In other words, the Twins will be better at scoring runs when they don't have someone in scoring position. With 3 of Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, Alexi Casilla and Nick Punto likely in the lineup on any given day, the Twins should continue to rack up large numbers of sacrifices, bunt hits, and steals, putting them in position to score, as they often did last year, without the benefit of a well-hit ball. I see the Twins scoring about 50 fewer runs.
They should be able to make up those 50 runs with improved pitching and defense. Last year's staff saw 361.1 IP (nearly 25% of its total IP) given to Brian Bass, Livan Hernandez, Boof Bonser, Juan Rincon and Eddie Guardado, while suffering the fatal late-season collapse of the previously reliable Matt Guerrier. The remainder of the staff did quite well, and those are the ones who will be relied upon in 2009, with Guerrier likely returning to form. Most importantly, the young rotation, brimming with upside, should get a larger proportion of the total IP this season, leaving fewer innings in the hands of a suspect bullpen. Add to that a defense that should be much better than what the Twins brought to the field in 2008 - they allowed by far the most errors and unearned runs of Gardy's tenure, something that looks to have been addressed this spring - and the Twins shouldn't have any trouble keeping their total runs allowed around 700. They'll need some breaks to win 90, but it will be a disappointment if they don't finish with at least 85 wins.
Cleveland Indians
2008 Record: 81-81
One of the luckiest teams in 2007, the wheel of fortune spun the other way on the Tribe in 2008. They lost several key players to injuries/ineffectiveness and managed to finish just .500 despite a +44 run differential. Retaining their offensive numbers is certainly possible, and they could exceed them with bounce-back years from Victor Martinez and, especially, Travis Hafner. They'll also have to maintain the breakout performances they got from Shin-Soo Choo and Kelley Shoppach. Grady Sizemore is awesome, Asdrubal Cabrera should be better and Mark DeRosa is a nice addition to their lineup. This ought to be the best offensive team in the division.
They should have no such hopes for the defensive half-innings. Cliff Lee has never had consecutive good seasons, Fausto Carmona has had one good season, and the rest of their rotation features fringe talents and reclamation projects. Their bullpen should be rock solid, especially if Kerry Wood holds together. Defensively, they don't look all that strong in the corners, and they insist on beginning the season with a mis-aligned IF of Jhonny Peralta at SS, Cabrera at 2B and DeRosa at 3B. Though they should certainly win more games in 2009, there are so many ifs with this team, I'm skeptical that they'll be a lot better than last year.
Kansas City Royals
2008 Record: 75-87
The Royals have seen their record improve by about 6 games in each of the last 3 seasons, meaning that they're poised to finish .500 this year if they maintain the trend. Slow-starting prospects Billy Butler and Alex Gordon ought to start reaching their potential about now, which should provide a bit of a jolt to what has perennially been a punchless offense. New additions Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp could provide upgrades in production from CF and 1B. However, top to bottom, there isn't a lot of OBP or deep counts, letting opposing pitchers off the hook with a lot of quick AB.
Gil Meche and Zach Greinke will be a solid top of the rotation, and Juan Cruz and Joakim Soria are as strong a setup/closer combination as there is in baseball. However, the back of the rotation is almost laughably bad, and there are some dicey options in the bullpen in Kyle Farnsworth and Jamie Wright. The Royals are only about half of what they need to be contenders right now, even in an especially weak division. They'll need a lot of things to go right to make the .500 mark.
Detroit Tigers
2008 Record: 74-88
Was there a bigger disappointment in baseball last year than the Tigers? Their enormous investments in Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis and Edgar Renteria not only failed to take the Tigers to the next level, they actually created a backslide as a thinned minor league talent pool was unable to support an aging, injury-prone roster. This offseason they've opted to invest what limited funds they have available in upgrading their defense, but at the expense of offense. There are still quality hitters at the top of the lineup in Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez, but only two of those guys are on the happy side of 33. Adam Everett, Gerald Laird and Brandon Inge aren't going to hit a lick.
The defensive improvements the Tigers made are real, and should help their pitchers out a lot, particularly on the left side of the field. On the right side, the range is limited. The real problem with the Tigers is their pitching. I'm skeptical that Armando Galarraga can regain his first-half success from last year, which makes the rotation pretty thin after Justin Verlander - and how much can they even count on him? As for the bullpen, the guy they brought in to be the closer, Brandon Lyon, was too hittable, so they gave the job to Fernando Rodney, who walks about 4.5 batters/9 IP. Juan Rincon made their bullpen. That defense is going to be busy.
I won't predict a winner for the Central this year - in a division so evenly matched I might as well guess which team I think will be lucky. All things being equal, I think it will come down to the Indians and Twins in September, with the other three teams striving for the 81-win mark.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Saturday, April 4, 2009
2009 Twins Preview: Waiting in the 'Wings
Last year's opening day roster included Livan Hernandez, Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, Craig Monroe, Juan Rincon and Brian Bass. Needless to say, the Twins won't be finishing the season with the same 25 guys I reviewed earlier this week. Here are some other names that might find their way into the box scores at some point in 2009:
IF - Matt Tolbert
I'm sure it broke Gardy's heart to have to cut Tolbert, so he'll certainly be the first guy called up if anything happens to an infielder. A switch-hitter with pretty good speed, Tolbert can play any of the IF positions (although his stint at 1B this week wasn't inspiring, while Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris both did OK over there) and could even be used in the OF in a pinch. He's hit pretty well at every level but AA (even in his rehab assignment last year he didn't do well there) and has generally been a high-percentage base stealer. Pretty similar to Nick Punto or Denny Hocking: the ideal guy to have on your bench (when you have a big enough bench).
IF - Luke Hughes
Next on the IF depth chart would probably be Hughes. Other than a lousy time at A+ Fort Myers, he's been a pretty good hitter, and last year he absolutely exploded in a season split between New Britain and Rochester. He's never been much of a fielder, unfortunately, but at this stage he doesn't look any worse than Buscher, who has worked to improve his glove since arriving with the Twins. Hughes is still young enough at 24 to have some upside. He'll be a September call-up if the team doesn't need him before that.
OF - Jason Pridie
The last piece of the Delmon Young trade, Pridie was brought in to compete for the CF job vacated by Torii Hunter. This was before the Twins had acquired Carlos Gomez or realized that Denard Span had figured out how to hit. Pridie quickly fell by the wayside, staying the whole year at Rochester and putting up a .270/.305/.435 line with a Gomez-esque 152/30 K/BB ratio. Still, he has terrific range in the OF and is a pretty high percentage base-stealer, so he wouldn't be a bad guy to have on the bench as a defensive sub or PR. With over 200 AAA games under his belt already, he'll likely be the first guy they call if one of the outfielders goes down.
SP - Kevin Mulvey
With Philip Humber, Brian Duensing and R.A. Dickey all capable of providing the Twins with spot starts, it will probably be a couple of months before Mulvey is considered to fill in for one of the Twins' starters. He had mixed results for the Red Wings last season, increasing his K/9 rate but also elevating his BB/9 and HR/9. He was better in the second half, and, at 23 years old, there's still plenty of time for him to figure things out. I'm guessing that his performance will get people talking about him as the summer rolls along, and that he may put the Twins in position to make an interesting trade at the end of July.
RP - Jose Mijares
After the way Mijares pitched for the Twins last September, a bullpen spot was his to lose this spring. And lose it he did, showing up for camp out of shape and struggling through just about every appearance he made. He's been a tremendous strikeout pitcher throughout his career, allowing well under a hit per IP. His problem has been control - he's amassed an ugly 5.1 BB/9 over his pro career so far. If he can lose some weight and focus on throwing more strikes, I think he'll find his way back to the Majors before too much time goes by.
C - Joe Mauer
Oh yeah, don't forget about this guy. I'm sure his rehab will progress agonizingly slowly, but it sounds like he should be able to rejoin the team by the end of April. And this year, because of the extra week of spring training, April only has 22 games in it. As long as he can stick around and perform the way he did last year, I'll be satisfied with 140 or so games from the reigning batting champ.
IF - Matt Tolbert
I'm sure it broke Gardy's heart to have to cut Tolbert, so he'll certainly be the first guy called up if anything happens to an infielder. A switch-hitter with pretty good speed, Tolbert can play any of the IF positions (although his stint at 1B this week wasn't inspiring, while Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris both did OK over there) and could even be used in the OF in a pinch. He's hit pretty well at every level but AA (even in his rehab assignment last year he didn't do well there) and has generally been a high-percentage base stealer. Pretty similar to Nick Punto or Denny Hocking: the ideal guy to have on your bench (when you have a big enough bench).
IF - Luke Hughes
Next on the IF depth chart would probably be Hughes. Other than a lousy time at A+ Fort Myers, he's been a pretty good hitter, and last year he absolutely exploded in a season split between New Britain and Rochester. He's never been much of a fielder, unfortunately, but at this stage he doesn't look any worse than Buscher, who has worked to improve his glove since arriving with the Twins. Hughes is still young enough at 24 to have some upside. He'll be a September call-up if the team doesn't need him before that.
OF - Jason Pridie
The last piece of the Delmon Young trade, Pridie was brought in to compete for the CF job vacated by Torii Hunter. This was before the Twins had acquired Carlos Gomez or realized that Denard Span had figured out how to hit. Pridie quickly fell by the wayside, staying the whole year at Rochester and putting up a .270/.305/.435 line with a Gomez-esque 152/30 K/BB ratio. Still, he has terrific range in the OF and is a pretty high percentage base-stealer, so he wouldn't be a bad guy to have on the bench as a defensive sub or PR. With over 200 AAA games under his belt already, he'll likely be the first guy they call if one of the outfielders goes down.
SP - Kevin Mulvey
With Philip Humber, Brian Duensing and R.A. Dickey all capable of providing the Twins with spot starts, it will probably be a couple of months before Mulvey is considered to fill in for one of the Twins' starters. He had mixed results for the Red Wings last season, increasing his K/9 rate but also elevating his BB/9 and HR/9. He was better in the second half, and, at 23 years old, there's still plenty of time for him to figure things out. I'm guessing that his performance will get people talking about him as the summer rolls along, and that he may put the Twins in position to make an interesting trade at the end of July.
RP - Jose Mijares
After the way Mijares pitched for the Twins last September, a bullpen spot was his to lose this spring. And lose it he did, showing up for camp out of shape and struggling through just about every appearance he made. He's been a tremendous strikeout pitcher throughout his career, allowing well under a hit per IP. His problem has been control - he's amassed an ugly 5.1 BB/9 over his pro career so far. If he can lose some weight and focus on throwing more strikes, I think he'll find his way back to the Majors before too much time goes by.
C - Joe Mauer
Oh yeah, don't forget about this guy. I'm sure his rehab will progress agonizingly slowly, but it sounds like he should be able to rejoin the team by the end of April. And this year, because of the extra week of spring training, April only has 22 games in it. As long as he can stick around and perform the way he did last year, I'll be satisfied with 140 or so games from the reigning batting champ.
Friday, April 3, 2009
2009 Twins Preview: Bench
At last, the Twins finalized their roster after today's tie with the Pirates. Matt Tolbert was the last guy to make the team in 2008, and he was the last guy cut this year. Though he had a pretty nice spring, it wasn't as nice as these guys:
IF - Brian Buscher
If you look at Buscher's minor league stats, you'll notice a slow progression from bad starts at each level to mediocre finishes once he got comfortable - until 2007, when he came to the Twins in the minor league Rule 5 draft. His power numbers exploded, corresponding with a staggering improvement in his K/BB ratio. It obviously clicked for him which pitches he should be swinging at. Buscher wasn't impressive in his time with Twins in 2007 and he had a rough spring training in 2008, earning him a trip back to Rochester, where he was even more dominant than the previous year. As down as many were on his performance with the Twins last year, it was still a .078 improvement in OPS over his first stint. He's had a monster spring, .382/.462/.545 with 2 HR and a 7/9 K/BB ratio in 55 AB, while playing errorless defense at the corner infield spots. With nothing left to prove at AAA, and with Morneau's balky back, there was no question he'd make the team. I hope he'll get plenty of opportunities to hit this year - I think he's ready to contribute at this level, particularly if he hardly ever faces lefties.
Expected line: .280/.350/.450, 250 AB, 9 HR, 18 2B, 25 BB, 35 K
IF - Brendan Harris
I was down on Harris for the first half of last year, thanks to his inadequate defensive range at 2B and SS and a plethora of called 3rd strikes. But he really grew on me in the 2nd half, shrinking his K/BB rate from about 3/1 to 5/3 and raising his OPS nearly a hundred points in the process. He's played everywhere in the infield this spring, making every play he should and a few he shouldn't, while hitting .317/.423/.417 with a 9/9 K/BB rate in 60 AB. His speed isn't much of an asset off the bench, so I look for him to PH in situations where a slappy single from Punto or Casilla won't quite get the job done, particularly vs. LHP. With Luke Hughes offering a similar skill set at Rochester with perhaps more power upside, I wouldn't be surprised to see Harris dealt at some point during the season.
Expected line: .275/.335/.415, 250 AB, 5 HR, 15 2B, 20 BB, 45 K
LF - Delmon Young
The Twins gave up a lot to get Young last offseason, and he didn't deliver anything close to the expectations many had lain on him. This offseason, Gardy let it slip that Young was not guaranteed a starting job this spring, perhaps as a ploy to keep him motivated. Has it worked? Young came to Fort Myers in great shape, made a concerted effort to pull the ball more often, and has a fine .302/.323/.508 line with 3 HR in 63 AB to show for it. He's looked better in the field, too. My concern is that he hasn't drawn a walk all spring - he'll need to get the OBP into the .350s before he can really be dangerous. Still, he seems to be making strides, and he's only 23. My guess is he'll start no fewer than 2 of 3 games this season.
Expected line: .300/.340/.450, 500 AB, 15 HR, 25 2B, 30 BB, 90 K
C - Jose Morales
When it became clear that Joe Mauer wouldn't be able to start the season with the Twins, they had to decide whether they wanted Mike Redmond's backup to be Drew Butera, a good defender who barely hit .250 at AA, or Morales, a so-so backstop who's hit over .300 in 2 seasons at Rochester. They wisely went with Morales, a switch-hitter who may be able to contribute enough to the offense to make up for his defensive shortcomings. Depending on Mauer's condition when he returns, it may make sense to keep Morales around for awhile as insurance, and he wouldn't be a bad bat to have off the bench late in games. I wish him the best of luck, but I hope the Twins don't need him for long.
Expected line: .280/.310/.370, 100 AB, 1 HR, 6 2B, 4 BB, 15 K
IF - Brian Buscher
If you look at Buscher's minor league stats, you'll notice a slow progression from bad starts at each level to mediocre finishes once he got comfortable - until 2007, when he came to the Twins in the minor league Rule 5 draft. His power numbers exploded, corresponding with a staggering improvement in his K/BB ratio. It obviously clicked for him which pitches he should be swinging at. Buscher wasn't impressive in his time with Twins in 2007 and he had a rough spring training in 2008, earning him a trip back to Rochester, where he was even more dominant than the previous year. As down as many were on his performance with the Twins last year, it was still a .078 improvement in OPS over his first stint. He's had a monster spring, .382/.462/.545 with 2 HR and a 7/9 K/BB ratio in 55 AB, while playing errorless defense at the corner infield spots. With nothing left to prove at AAA, and with Morneau's balky back, there was no question he'd make the team. I hope he'll get plenty of opportunities to hit this year - I think he's ready to contribute at this level, particularly if he hardly ever faces lefties.
Expected line: .280/.350/.450, 250 AB, 9 HR, 18 2B, 25 BB, 35 K
IF - Brendan Harris
I was down on Harris for the first half of last year, thanks to his inadequate defensive range at 2B and SS and a plethora of called 3rd strikes. But he really grew on me in the 2nd half, shrinking his K/BB rate from about 3/1 to 5/3 and raising his OPS nearly a hundred points in the process. He's played everywhere in the infield this spring, making every play he should and a few he shouldn't, while hitting .317/.423/.417 with a 9/9 K/BB rate in 60 AB. His speed isn't much of an asset off the bench, so I look for him to PH in situations where a slappy single from Punto or Casilla won't quite get the job done, particularly vs. LHP. With Luke Hughes offering a similar skill set at Rochester with perhaps more power upside, I wouldn't be surprised to see Harris dealt at some point during the season.
Expected line: .275/.335/.415, 250 AB, 5 HR, 15 2B, 20 BB, 45 K
LF - Delmon Young
The Twins gave up a lot to get Young last offseason, and he didn't deliver anything close to the expectations many had lain on him. This offseason, Gardy let it slip that Young was not guaranteed a starting job this spring, perhaps as a ploy to keep him motivated. Has it worked? Young came to Fort Myers in great shape, made a concerted effort to pull the ball more often, and has a fine .302/.323/.508 line with 3 HR in 63 AB to show for it. He's looked better in the field, too. My concern is that he hasn't drawn a walk all spring - he'll need to get the OBP into the .350s before he can really be dangerous. Still, he seems to be making strides, and he's only 23. My guess is he'll start no fewer than 2 of 3 games this season.
Expected line: .300/.340/.450, 500 AB, 15 HR, 25 2B, 30 BB, 90 K
C - Jose Morales
When it became clear that Joe Mauer wouldn't be able to start the season with the Twins, they had to decide whether they wanted Mike Redmond's backup to be Drew Butera, a good defender who barely hit .250 at AA, or Morales, a so-so backstop who's hit over .300 in 2 seasons at Rochester. They wisely went with Morales, a switch-hitter who may be able to contribute enough to the offense to make up for his defensive shortcomings. Depending on Mauer's condition when he returns, it may make sense to keep Morales around for awhile as insurance, and he wouldn't be a bad bat to have off the bench late in games. I wish him the best of luck, but I hope the Twins don't need him for long.
Expected line: .280/.310/.370, 100 AB, 1 HR, 6 2B, 4 BB, 15 K
Thursday, April 2, 2009
2009 Twins Preview: Bullpen
Scott Baker pitched his final tuneup before his opening night start for the AAA club on Wednesday. He threw 5 scoreless innings, allowing just 3 H and striking out 4. We woke up Thursday morning to find that he had been placed on the 15-day DL with shoulder stiffness.
Whaaaa?
They didn't even want to wait 24 hours to see if he felt better? This move strikes me as an overreaction. But it certainly clarifies the remainder of the Twins' (now justifiably, at least temporarily) 12-man pitching staff. Liriano will shift up 1 slot to opening night, Blackburn will pitch Tuesday instead of Friday, and RA Dickey will make the club as the #5 for the first time through the rotation. (Wouldn't it make more sense for Dickey to start on Tuesday against Seattle? Not only would that minimize the disruption in routine for Blackburn, but it would get Dickey's knuckler indoors, where it will supposedly be more effective. I can't shake the feeling that the Twins are really hoping that Dickey will blow it one of these outings so that they can have some evidence for why he should be at Rochester.) Philip Humber and Brian Duensing both make the bullpen:
Closer - Joe Nathan
At this point, I would say that the AJ Pierzynski trade with the Giants would have been a great trade for the Twins if it had been for just Nathan straight up. He's been among the top closers in baseball since coming the Twins in 2004, 4 times posting ERAs under 2.00 and never allowing more than 5 HR in a season or posting a K/BB ratio lower than 3.86. The shoulder discomfort that kept him out of the WBC was scary and is something we'll have to keep an eye on, but at this point there's no indication that he's not 100%. And 100% of Joe Nathan is awfully good.
Expected line: 70 IP, 2.00 ERA, 5 HR, 20 BB, 75 K
RHP - Jesse Crain
I was pleased with what Crain was able to bring in 2008, less than a year after undergoing major shoulder surgery. His velocity was high, he had good movement on his pitches, and he was able to slightly surpass his K/9 from 2006, though his walk rate was the worst since 2005. It's easy to look at his 2008 and remember the consecutive losses he suffered early in the Twins' disastrous 14-game road trip in late August, but he was excellent in 9 September appearances and has looked very sharp this spring. I believe he'll get a chance to hold the 8th inning setup job to start the season, and he looks as though he can handle it as well as anyone the Twins have right now.
Expected line: 70 IP, 3.50 ERA, 6 HR, 25 BB, 55 K
LHP - Craig Breslow
Claiming Breslow off waivers in May was the only incontrovertibly good move Bill Smith has made in his brief tenure as GM of the Twins. A high-strikeout guy who was hurting himself with walks, he only needed the tutelage of pitching coach Rick Anderson to bring them down from about 6 BB/9 to 3.25. He didn't allow any ER over his final 12 IP, and has looked just as good this spring. Regrettably, he's slotted in for the Dennys Reyes role, i.e. get the lefty out. I say regrettable, because Breslow's performance against righties suggests that he might be a very effective 7th or 8th inning guy, rather than just wasting him on 1 or 2 matchups. Hopefully, Gardy will use him more liberally than he did Reyes, but I'm reluctant to expect anything more than Reyes numbers from him this year.
Expected line: 50 IP, 3.00 ERA, 2 HR, 20 BB, 40 K
RHP - Matt Guerrier
Perhaps no single Twin was more responsible for the team coming up just short last season than Matt Guerrier. A long reliever in 2005-06, he stepped into Jesse Crain's role in 2007 and enjoyed the lowest ERA and WHIP of his career while landing among the league leaders in IP among relievers. He attempted to fill Pat Neshek's shoes last year, and did rather well for about half the season before the previous year's workload seemed to catch up to him. On June 30th, he was 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA. From that game on, his ERA ballooned to 7.45 as he suffered 7 excruciating losses. It sounds like they'll try to use him a little less this season, and certainly keep him away from high leverage situations. He's looked good his last few outings this spring, so I'm optimistic he'll be able to bounce back closer to the performance we grew accustomed to in previous seasons.
Expected line: 70 IP, 4.00 ERA, 9 HR, 25 BB, 55 K
RHP - Luis Ayala
The Twins went looking (sort of) for bullpen help this offseason, and Ayala is what they found. Like Guerrier, he's coming off of the first crappy season of his career, having been a part of the Mets' late-season melt-down that cost them a playoff spot. Glancing at his stats, there's nothing that jumps out to explain why his ERA should have nearly doubled. He had similar K/9, pitches per plate appearance and inning, and better BB/9 numbers than in some of his earlier, successful seasons. He allowed a higher BAA and HR/9, but not so much higher that they would explain that kind of performance. Mostly, it seems like he just didn't strand as many runners as usual, and that's the sort of thing that can really change year-to-year. He should be more or less back to his career norms this year.
Expected line: 75 IP, 4.00 ERA, 8 HR, 17 BB, 50 K
RHP - Philip Humber
It would be stretching things to say that Humber earned a spot on the team this spring. But since he was one of the components of the Johan Santana trade with the Mets, the Twins are loath to let him just slip away on waivers, so here he is. He was the 3rd overall pick in the 2004 draft, but almost immediately had to undergo Tommy John surgery. The Mets scooted him up to AAA after just over 150 pro IP anyway, and he responded by leading the PCL in WHIP in 2007. No such luck in the pitcher-friendlier IL, where he bounced in and out of the rotation for Rochester before finishing the summer strongly and pitching decently in a September call-up. I have no idea what kind of reliever he'll be, but I'm not expecting too much.
Expected line: 70 IP, 4.50 ERA, 10 HR, 23 BB, 50 K
RHP - R.A. Dickey
The Twins signed Dickey to minor-league deal last winter, only to have the Mariners promptly steal him in the Rule 5 draft. Like all the M's pitchers, Dickey had a lousy season, but the Twins brought him back to camp this year. What were they hoping to see from him? Whatever it was, he surely exceeded it. In 17.2 IP this spring, he has a 2.04 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 9.17 K/9 and 2.04 BB/9. Those numbers far surpassed anything the other bubble guys put up, and yet Scott Baker had to get hurt before the Twins would give Dickey a spot on the team. It'll be a tough assignment pitching in Chicago. Even if he succeeds, I don't know if the Twins will really want to keep him up. Has he perfected his knuckleball, or have the conditions just been favorable this spring? I have to doubt he can continue to do what he's done in March.
Expected line: 20 IP, 5.00 ERA, 3 HR, 8 BB, 15 K
LHP - Brian Duensing
A typical product of the Twins' system, Duensing has excellent control (2.2 BB/9) and pitches to contact (6.5 K/9). He was at AAA less than 2 years after he was drafted, but took a step backward in his full season there in 2008. With Jose Mijares falling by the wayside, the Twins would like to give Duensing a shot at the bullpen, a la Glen Perkins in 2007, rather than send him back for a third season at AAA. He had a pretty nice spring in terms of ERA, but allowed BB and HR at a much higher rate and amassed K at a much lower rate than he had with the Red Wings. That does not spell success against major league hitters. Though they'll try to set him up for success by having him face primarily LH batters, that did not help him vs. Carlos Pena earlier this week. I think we're in for a repeat of Baker circa 2006 here. Mercifully, it shouldn't last long.
Expected line: 25 IP, 5.50 ERA, 5 HR, 9 BB, 12 K
Overall, I think we're in store for only a slightly better performance from the 'pen in 2009. However, it should be easier to hide the shortcomings, because the starters will be doing a lot more, and the defense behind them should be better as well. Look for the Twins' runs allowed to go way down this year, to around 700. That should just about make up for the inevitable drop in runs scored.
Whaaaa?
They didn't even want to wait 24 hours to see if he felt better? This move strikes me as an overreaction. But it certainly clarifies the remainder of the Twins' (now justifiably, at least temporarily) 12-man pitching staff. Liriano will shift up 1 slot to opening night, Blackburn will pitch Tuesday instead of Friday, and RA Dickey will make the club as the #5 for the first time through the rotation. (Wouldn't it make more sense for Dickey to start on Tuesday against Seattle? Not only would that minimize the disruption in routine for Blackburn, but it would get Dickey's knuckler indoors, where it will supposedly be more effective. I can't shake the feeling that the Twins are really hoping that Dickey will blow it one of these outings so that they can have some evidence for why he should be at Rochester.) Philip Humber and Brian Duensing both make the bullpen:
Closer - Joe Nathan
At this point, I would say that the AJ Pierzynski trade with the Giants would have been a great trade for the Twins if it had been for just Nathan straight up. He's been among the top closers in baseball since coming the Twins in 2004, 4 times posting ERAs under 2.00 and never allowing more than 5 HR in a season or posting a K/BB ratio lower than 3.86. The shoulder discomfort that kept him out of the WBC was scary and is something we'll have to keep an eye on, but at this point there's no indication that he's not 100%. And 100% of Joe Nathan is awfully good.
Expected line: 70 IP, 2.00 ERA, 5 HR, 20 BB, 75 K
RHP - Jesse Crain
I was pleased with what Crain was able to bring in 2008, less than a year after undergoing major shoulder surgery. His velocity was high, he had good movement on his pitches, and he was able to slightly surpass his K/9 from 2006, though his walk rate was the worst since 2005. It's easy to look at his 2008 and remember the consecutive losses he suffered early in the Twins' disastrous 14-game road trip in late August, but he was excellent in 9 September appearances and has looked very sharp this spring. I believe he'll get a chance to hold the 8th inning setup job to start the season, and he looks as though he can handle it as well as anyone the Twins have right now.
Expected line: 70 IP, 3.50 ERA, 6 HR, 25 BB, 55 K
LHP - Craig Breslow
Claiming Breslow off waivers in May was the only incontrovertibly good move Bill Smith has made in his brief tenure as GM of the Twins. A high-strikeout guy who was hurting himself with walks, he only needed the tutelage of pitching coach Rick Anderson to bring them down from about 6 BB/9 to 3.25. He didn't allow any ER over his final 12 IP, and has looked just as good this spring. Regrettably, he's slotted in for the Dennys Reyes role, i.e. get the lefty out. I say regrettable, because Breslow's performance against righties suggests that he might be a very effective 7th or 8th inning guy, rather than just wasting him on 1 or 2 matchups. Hopefully, Gardy will use him more liberally than he did Reyes, but I'm reluctant to expect anything more than Reyes numbers from him this year.
Expected line: 50 IP, 3.00 ERA, 2 HR, 20 BB, 40 K
RHP - Matt Guerrier
Perhaps no single Twin was more responsible for the team coming up just short last season than Matt Guerrier. A long reliever in 2005-06, he stepped into Jesse Crain's role in 2007 and enjoyed the lowest ERA and WHIP of his career while landing among the league leaders in IP among relievers. He attempted to fill Pat Neshek's shoes last year, and did rather well for about half the season before the previous year's workload seemed to catch up to him. On June 30th, he was 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA. From that game on, his ERA ballooned to 7.45 as he suffered 7 excruciating losses. It sounds like they'll try to use him a little less this season, and certainly keep him away from high leverage situations. He's looked good his last few outings this spring, so I'm optimistic he'll be able to bounce back closer to the performance we grew accustomed to in previous seasons.
Expected line: 70 IP, 4.00 ERA, 9 HR, 25 BB, 55 K
RHP - Luis Ayala
The Twins went looking (sort of) for bullpen help this offseason, and Ayala is what they found. Like Guerrier, he's coming off of the first crappy season of his career, having been a part of the Mets' late-season melt-down that cost them a playoff spot. Glancing at his stats, there's nothing that jumps out to explain why his ERA should have nearly doubled. He had similar K/9, pitches per plate appearance and inning, and better BB/9 numbers than in some of his earlier, successful seasons. He allowed a higher BAA and HR/9, but not so much higher that they would explain that kind of performance. Mostly, it seems like he just didn't strand as many runners as usual, and that's the sort of thing that can really change year-to-year. He should be more or less back to his career norms this year.
Expected line: 75 IP, 4.00 ERA, 8 HR, 17 BB, 50 K
RHP - Philip Humber
It would be stretching things to say that Humber earned a spot on the team this spring. But since he was one of the components of the Johan Santana trade with the Mets, the Twins are loath to let him just slip away on waivers, so here he is. He was the 3rd overall pick in the 2004 draft, but almost immediately had to undergo Tommy John surgery. The Mets scooted him up to AAA after just over 150 pro IP anyway, and he responded by leading the PCL in WHIP in 2007. No such luck in the pitcher-friendlier IL, where he bounced in and out of the rotation for Rochester before finishing the summer strongly and pitching decently in a September call-up. I have no idea what kind of reliever he'll be, but I'm not expecting too much.
Expected line: 70 IP, 4.50 ERA, 10 HR, 23 BB, 50 K
RHP - R.A. Dickey
The Twins signed Dickey to minor-league deal last winter, only to have the Mariners promptly steal him in the Rule 5 draft. Like all the M's pitchers, Dickey had a lousy season, but the Twins brought him back to camp this year. What were they hoping to see from him? Whatever it was, he surely exceeded it. In 17.2 IP this spring, he has a 2.04 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 9.17 K/9 and 2.04 BB/9. Those numbers far surpassed anything the other bubble guys put up, and yet Scott Baker had to get hurt before the Twins would give Dickey a spot on the team. It'll be a tough assignment pitching in Chicago. Even if he succeeds, I don't know if the Twins will really want to keep him up. Has he perfected his knuckleball, or have the conditions just been favorable this spring? I have to doubt he can continue to do what he's done in March.
Expected line: 20 IP, 5.00 ERA, 3 HR, 8 BB, 15 K
LHP - Brian Duensing
A typical product of the Twins' system, Duensing has excellent control (2.2 BB/9) and pitches to contact (6.5 K/9). He was at AAA less than 2 years after he was drafted, but took a step backward in his full season there in 2008. With Jose Mijares falling by the wayside, the Twins would like to give Duensing a shot at the bullpen, a la Glen Perkins in 2007, rather than send him back for a third season at AAA. He had a pretty nice spring in terms of ERA, but allowed BB and HR at a much higher rate and amassed K at a much lower rate than he had with the Red Wings. That does not spell success against major league hitters. Though they'll try to set him up for success by having him face primarily LH batters, that did not help him vs. Carlos Pena earlier this week. I think we're in for a repeat of Baker circa 2006 here. Mercifully, it shouldn't last long.
Expected line: 25 IP, 5.50 ERA, 5 HR, 9 BB, 12 K
Overall, I think we're in store for only a slightly better performance from the 'pen in 2009. However, it should be easier to hide the shortcomings, because the starters will be doing a lot more, and the defense behind them should be better as well. Look for the Twins' runs allowed to go way down this year, to around 700. That should just about make up for the inevitable drop in runs scored.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
2009 Twins Preview: Lineup
Given the injury situation the Twins are facing this week, here's the likely starting lineup for Monday's opener vs. Seattle RHP Felix Hernandez:
LF - Denard Span
I don't know if Span had a bigger booster than me last year. From the approach he showed in spring training it was apparent to me that he was better prepared to succeed in the Majors than Carlos Gomez. He was batting .340/.434/.481 through 40 games at Rochester when he was brought up to fill in for the injured Michael Cuddyer a 2nd time. He took the leadoff spot from Gomez by the end of July and finished the year hitting .294/.387/.432 with 18/25 SB and a surprising 6 HR (nearly matching the 7 he'd hit in his first 5 pro seasons). He struck out in 17.3% of his AB, consistent with his minor league average 17.0%. But the biggest improvement was in his isolated discipline of .093, considerably higher than his .070 in the minors. He also made several spectacular, run-saving plays in RF.
Span's performance this spring has me greatly concerned. After today's game, in which he produced 3 grounders and a pop-up, his line is .158/.244/.237. His IsoD for the spring stands at .086, so his leadoff approach is there, although he's still taking a lot of called strikeouts, keeping his K rate rather high at 18.4%. The real trouble is that he's just not hitting any line drives. I'd like to write it off as a spring training small sample size thing, but he's had 86 plate appearances. I don't know if his swing is off or if he's hacking at the wrong pitches, but he's not right. He'll get plenty of opportunities early in the season to turn it around, and the Twins' chances this season depend on him doing so, particularly with Mauer's OBP out of the lineup for awhile. He's hit for pretty good averages throughout his pro career, so I'll certainly give him the benefit of the doubt, but I'm worried right now.
Expected line: .265/.350/.340, 3 HR, 25 SB, 90 K, 70 BB
2B - Alexi Casilla
Recalled in May after a rash of injuries to the middle infielders, Casilla got the Twins rolling on their outrageous RISP numbers, driving in 35 runs between mid-May and the first week of July. Like Span, he came into the season with 7 career minor league HR, then hit 7 in 2/3 of a season in the Majors. He missed about 3 weeks in August with an injury, and wasn't the same confident hitter he'd been up to that point (.313/.351/.424 before the injury, .225/.299/.289 afterward).
Which Casilla can we expect in 2009? For the most part, he's been a good average hitter throughout his pro career, with a good K/BB ratio and little power. His performances in winter ball and spring training (.308/.352/.369) reflect that. A big piece of his game that was missing in 2008 was SB - he had 49 SB in 2005 and 2006 and 35 in 2007, but just 11 in 16 attempts last year. I'd like to see him run a lot more, particularly when he's not hitting in front of Mauer's 400+ OBP.
Expected line: .285/.360/.370, 3 HR, 25 SB, 70 K, 50 BB
DH - Jason Kubel
It wasn't the breakout year many of us had hoped for, but 2008 was still another step in the right direction for Kubel. Though his BA and OBP were essentially identical to those of his middling 2007, he added .021 points of SLG% thanks to a career-high 20 HR. His doubles were down from the previous year, but that may have been the result of defenders making a lot of running catches in the gaps, something I recall happening to Kubel rather often. His overall line was dragged down by a rough April in which he posted a 20/3 K/BB ratio. Once he sorted himself out, those numbers were better than 2/1 for the rest of the season. It'd be easy to look at Kubel's last 2 seasons and conclude that he's a .273/.335/.460 hitter, but I see his 2008 as that of a .300/.360/.500 hitter who had some bad luck. That evens out this year.
Expected line: .295/.360/.510, 20 HR, 30 2B, 90 K, 50 BB
1B - Justin Morneau
Another slow 2nd half, particularly in September, cost Morneau a 2nd MVP award and the Twins a post-season berth. He dropped off the 30 HR pace he had set in 2006-2007, but made up for it with a surge in doubles. Despite his lower 2nd half numbers, he managed to drive in 20 or more runs in every month of the season. Most importantly, his K/BB rate narrowed for the 3rd straight year. Morneau is in his prime, and he and the Twins have hopefully learned that he needs a day off here and there late in the season in order to maintain his level of performance. Maybe a day off every 2 weeks after July will do the trick. The HR numbers are going to come back, the doubles and walks should remain high, and Morneau should receive a ton of MVP votes once again.
Expected line: .295/.370/.525, 30 HR, 40 2B, 85 K, 75 BB
RF - Michael Cuddyer
After an apparent breakout campaign in 2006, Cuddyer has seen his numbers diminished by freak injuries in the subsequent seasons. Determined to give the Twins a full season this year, he's come to camp in great shape and hit a promising .286/.328/.500 in spring training. His range in RF won't measure up to that of Span, but his strong, accurate arm will make up for it somewhat. He's also managed to quietly steal a handful of bases each year at a high rate of success. If he can keep himself on the field, I look for Cuddyer to be the Twins' best all-around RH bat this year.
Expected line: .280/.360/.450, 18 HR, 32 2B, 100 K, 50 BB
3B - Joe Crede
Like Cuddyer, Crede hasn't been able to continue his success from 2006 due to injuries. His injuries have been much more nagging than Cuddyer's, relating to his back, and there's good reason to doubt that he'll be able to hold up through 81 games on field turf. Even when good, Crede's never been much of an average or OBP guy, hitting a very high percentage of fly balls. His defense is generally very good, so he should save the Twins a few runs there. If he holds up, he should be a decent bottom of the order guy, but I honestly expect more from Delmon Young than from Crede this year.
Expected line: .260/.310/.450, 22 HR, 25 2B, 75 K, 30 BB
C - Mike Redmond
We certainly hope Redmond won't be the starting catcher for very long, since he turns 38 a month into the season was never close to Joe Mauer in ability even when he was young. He's been a rock-solid backup for the last 4 years, putting up averages around .300 and doing a great job defensively and calling games. He's had an encouraging spring at the plate, hitting doubles at his 2006 rate and drawing walks. He'll need to keep that up to keep from being a huge drag on the offense. I don't want to project him for too many PA here - I'm hoping Mauer will be back within a few weeks.
Expected line - .290/.345/.350, 0 HR, 12 2B, 18 K, 14 BB
SS - Nick Punto
As he did in 2006, Punto rescued the Twins from a poor free agent signing in 2008, this time at SS. During the offseason, the Twins decided to forego any pursuit of other free agents and signed him to be the starter at short for at least the next 2 years. His bat plays much better there than at 3rd, and his defense is more than adequate. I'd prefer to see him batting 9th, but perhaps Mr. Gomez can play well enough to necessitate that shift later in the season. Punto has yo-yoed between good and awful at the plate over the past 3 seasons. This year, I'll be OK with OK.
Expected line: .250/.320/.350, 1 HR, 25 2B, 20 SB, 90 K, 50 BB
CF - Carlos Gomez
Though I enjoyed his antics from time to time, I wasn't much of a Gomez fan last season. Constantly giving away AB and missing the cutoff man gets on my nerves. His 142/25 K/BB ratio made him among the worst hitters in the game last year. I came into the offseason believing that a trip to Rochester would be the best thing for him to begin 2009, but September, winter ball and spring training have given me hope that Go-Go is starting to get a clue. He's playing better defense, drawing far more walks, taking the ball to the opposite field, and stealing bases at his early 2008 rate. If he can carry that approach into the season, we all know that he has the tools to be a great player.
Expected line: .270/.330/.400, 7 HR, 7 3B, 35 SB, 100 K, 30 BB
LF - Denard Span
I don't know if Span had a bigger booster than me last year. From the approach he showed in spring training it was apparent to me that he was better prepared to succeed in the Majors than Carlos Gomez. He was batting .340/.434/.481 through 40 games at Rochester when he was brought up to fill in for the injured Michael Cuddyer a 2nd time. He took the leadoff spot from Gomez by the end of July and finished the year hitting .294/.387/.432 with 18/25 SB and a surprising 6 HR (nearly matching the 7 he'd hit in his first 5 pro seasons). He struck out in 17.3% of his AB, consistent with his minor league average 17.0%. But the biggest improvement was in his isolated discipline of .093, considerably higher than his .070 in the minors. He also made several spectacular, run-saving plays in RF.
Span's performance this spring has me greatly concerned. After today's game, in which he produced 3 grounders and a pop-up, his line is .158/.244/.237. His IsoD for the spring stands at .086, so his leadoff approach is there, although he's still taking a lot of called strikeouts, keeping his K rate rather high at 18.4%. The real trouble is that he's just not hitting any line drives. I'd like to write it off as a spring training small sample size thing, but he's had 86 plate appearances. I don't know if his swing is off or if he's hacking at the wrong pitches, but he's not right. He'll get plenty of opportunities early in the season to turn it around, and the Twins' chances this season depend on him doing so, particularly with Mauer's OBP out of the lineup for awhile. He's hit for pretty good averages throughout his pro career, so I'll certainly give him the benefit of the doubt, but I'm worried right now.
Expected line: .265/.350/.340, 3 HR, 25 SB, 90 K, 70 BB
2B - Alexi Casilla
Recalled in May after a rash of injuries to the middle infielders, Casilla got the Twins rolling on their outrageous RISP numbers, driving in 35 runs between mid-May and the first week of July. Like Span, he came into the season with 7 career minor league HR, then hit 7 in 2/3 of a season in the Majors. He missed about 3 weeks in August with an injury, and wasn't the same confident hitter he'd been up to that point (.313/.351/.424 before the injury, .225/.299/.289 afterward).
Which Casilla can we expect in 2009? For the most part, he's been a good average hitter throughout his pro career, with a good K/BB ratio and little power. His performances in winter ball and spring training (.308/.352/.369) reflect that. A big piece of his game that was missing in 2008 was SB - he had 49 SB in 2005 and 2006 and 35 in 2007, but just 11 in 16 attempts last year. I'd like to see him run a lot more, particularly when he's not hitting in front of Mauer's 400+ OBP.
Expected line: .285/.360/.370, 3 HR, 25 SB, 70 K, 50 BB
DH - Jason Kubel
It wasn't the breakout year many of us had hoped for, but 2008 was still another step in the right direction for Kubel. Though his BA and OBP were essentially identical to those of his middling 2007, he added .021 points of SLG% thanks to a career-high 20 HR. His doubles were down from the previous year, but that may have been the result of defenders making a lot of running catches in the gaps, something I recall happening to Kubel rather often. His overall line was dragged down by a rough April in which he posted a 20/3 K/BB ratio. Once he sorted himself out, those numbers were better than 2/1 for the rest of the season. It'd be easy to look at Kubel's last 2 seasons and conclude that he's a .273/.335/.460 hitter, but I see his 2008 as that of a .300/.360/.500 hitter who had some bad luck. That evens out this year.
Expected line: .295/.360/.510, 20 HR, 30 2B, 90 K, 50 BB
1B - Justin Morneau
Another slow 2nd half, particularly in September, cost Morneau a 2nd MVP award and the Twins a post-season berth. He dropped off the 30 HR pace he had set in 2006-2007, but made up for it with a surge in doubles. Despite his lower 2nd half numbers, he managed to drive in 20 or more runs in every month of the season. Most importantly, his K/BB rate narrowed for the 3rd straight year. Morneau is in his prime, and he and the Twins have hopefully learned that he needs a day off here and there late in the season in order to maintain his level of performance. Maybe a day off every 2 weeks after July will do the trick. The HR numbers are going to come back, the doubles and walks should remain high, and Morneau should receive a ton of MVP votes once again.
Expected line: .295/.370/.525, 30 HR, 40 2B, 85 K, 75 BB
RF - Michael Cuddyer
After an apparent breakout campaign in 2006, Cuddyer has seen his numbers diminished by freak injuries in the subsequent seasons. Determined to give the Twins a full season this year, he's come to camp in great shape and hit a promising .286/.328/.500 in spring training. His range in RF won't measure up to that of Span, but his strong, accurate arm will make up for it somewhat. He's also managed to quietly steal a handful of bases each year at a high rate of success. If he can keep himself on the field, I look for Cuddyer to be the Twins' best all-around RH bat this year.
Expected line: .280/.360/.450, 18 HR, 32 2B, 100 K, 50 BB
3B - Joe Crede
Like Cuddyer, Crede hasn't been able to continue his success from 2006 due to injuries. His injuries have been much more nagging than Cuddyer's, relating to his back, and there's good reason to doubt that he'll be able to hold up through 81 games on field turf. Even when good, Crede's never been much of an average or OBP guy, hitting a very high percentage of fly balls. His defense is generally very good, so he should save the Twins a few runs there. If he holds up, he should be a decent bottom of the order guy, but I honestly expect more from Delmon Young than from Crede this year.
Expected line: .260/.310/.450, 22 HR, 25 2B, 75 K, 30 BB
C - Mike Redmond
We certainly hope Redmond won't be the starting catcher for very long, since he turns 38 a month into the season was never close to Joe Mauer in ability even when he was young. He's been a rock-solid backup for the last 4 years, putting up averages around .300 and doing a great job defensively and calling games. He's had an encouraging spring at the plate, hitting doubles at his 2006 rate and drawing walks. He'll need to keep that up to keep from being a huge drag on the offense. I don't want to project him for too many PA here - I'm hoping Mauer will be back within a few weeks.
Expected line - .290/.345/.350, 0 HR, 12 2B, 18 K, 14 BB
SS - Nick Punto
As he did in 2006, Punto rescued the Twins from a poor free agent signing in 2008, this time at SS. During the offseason, the Twins decided to forego any pursuit of other free agents and signed him to be the starter at short for at least the next 2 years. His bat plays much better there than at 3rd, and his defense is more than adequate. I'd prefer to see him batting 9th, but perhaps Mr. Gomez can play well enough to necessitate that shift later in the season. Punto has yo-yoed between good and awful at the plate over the past 3 seasons. This year, I'll be OK with OK.
Expected line: .250/.320/.350, 1 HR, 25 2B, 20 SB, 90 K, 50 BB
CF - Carlos Gomez
Though I enjoyed his antics from time to time, I wasn't much of a Gomez fan last season. Constantly giving away AB and missing the cutoff man gets on my nerves. His 142/25 K/BB ratio made him among the worst hitters in the game last year. I came into the offseason believing that a trip to Rochester would be the best thing for him to begin 2009, but September, winter ball and spring training have given me hope that Go-Go is starting to get a clue. He's playing better defense, drawing far more walks, taking the ball to the opposite field, and stealing bases at his early 2008 rate. If he can carry that approach into the season, we all know that he has the tools to be a great player.
Expected line: .270/.330/.400, 7 HR, 7 3B, 35 SB, 100 K, 30 BB
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Backup Backstop
The Twins announced 3 cuts this morning: Alejandro Machado, Jose Mijares (finally), and Drew Butera. That anoints Jose Morales as Mike Redmond's backup (Mike Redmond's backup: I don't like the sound of that). Prior to spring training last year, I thought Morales would be a good choice for the 25th man, so I'm certainly pleased to see the Twins go with him now. With Mauer hurt, Joe Crede getting starts at 3rd, and Denard Span no sure thing to lead off every game with the spring he's put together, the Twins are suddenly pretty right-handed. The switch-hitting Morales gives Gardy an opportunity to add another left-handed bat on days the Twins face a RHP. Since he's a good hitter, Morales could also be a good choice to pinch-hit (if they're not too chicken to use up their last catcher). Morales has been at Rochester for 2 years, suffering some injury setbacks along the way. He deserved this opportunity, and I'm glad he's getting it.
Mijares' demotion apparently clears the way for Brian Duensing to fill the role of 12th pitcher (unnecessary on a team with a deep rotation). His advantage appears to be mainly that he is left-handed. I can think of a LHP the Twins could have signed rather cheaply who would likely have performed a lot better than Duensing will (hint: he has no neck). However, Duensing has done pretty well at Rochester over the past 2 seasons, and I suppose he also deserves a shot. I would be inclined to option him back down once Joe Mauer is ready to return, however, since I think we're going to find over the first 2 weeks of the season that the Twins aren't going to need enough innings from their bullpen to justify keeping 12 pitchers.
Twins 12, Pirates 8
This was most likely the worst all-around game the Twins have been involved in this spring. At least a quarter of the Twins' 19 hits were fly balls that the Pirates simply failed to catch. Bucs fans could not have been comforted to see their presumed #5 starter getting knocked around by the likes of Chris Parmelee and Matt Moses - whose effort today must, sadly, rank among the finest games of his disappointing pro career - and their closer getting lit up by a succession of AA or lower hitters.
Nick Blackburn was nowhere near as good as his line. Three times, Brendan Harris dove to his right to cut off balls that were labeled for CF, twice turning them into outs. Denard Span made a catch while crashing into the wall in CF. It would be fair to say that Blackburn kept his fielders on their toes.
The same could not be said of the pitching prospects who finished the game. With the temperature on the field about 90 degrees, the game almost 3 hours old, the Twins leading by 9 and both teams using almost exclusively low minor leaguers, it must have killed home plate umpire Tim Tschida to have to call ball after ball from reliever Joe Testa. The only out the Twins were able to make of the first 8 Pirates who came to the plate in the 9th was on an infield fly that wasn't caught. Ugh.
Brian Buscher hopefully earned himself a day off by playing all 9 innings at 3rd base. I hope I'm not jinxing him, but I want to point out that he hasn't made an error this spring at either 1B or 3B. In fact, the Twins' regulars have only committed a handful or errors all spring, an improvement which I expect to continue into the regular season.
Tomorrow, RA Dickey will start against Tampa while Scott Baker gets his work in vs. some minor leaguers. This start will be Dickey's last big chance to blow it on the field before the Twins are forced to admit to everyone that Philip Humber's option situation meant all along that Dickey had no chance to make the team. For what it's worth, Dickey has had a more impressive spring than Duensing. It might be more useful to have a knuckleballer in the 'pen than a lefty who isn't that good at getting lefties out. Here's hoping Dickey makes it hard on them.
Mijares' demotion apparently clears the way for Brian Duensing to fill the role of 12th pitcher (unnecessary on a team with a deep rotation). His advantage appears to be mainly that he is left-handed. I can think of a LHP the Twins could have signed rather cheaply who would likely have performed a lot better than Duensing will (hint: he has no neck). However, Duensing has done pretty well at Rochester over the past 2 seasons, and I suppose he also deserves a shot. I would be inclined to option him back down once Joe Mauer is ready to return, however, since I think we're going to find over the first 2 weeks of the season that the Twins aren't going to need enough innings from their bullpen to justify keeping 12 pitchers.
Twins 12, Pirates 8
This was most likely the worst all-around game the Twins have been involved in this spring. At least a quarter of the Twins' 19 hits were fly balls that the Pirates simply failed to catch. Bucs fans could not have been comforted to see their presumed #5 starter getting knocked around by the likes of Chris Parmelee and Matt Moses - whose effort today must, sadly, rank among the finest games of his disappointing pro career - and their closer getting lit up by a succession of AA or lower hitters.
Nick Blackburn was nowhere near as good as his line. Three times, Brendan Harris dove to his right to cut off balls that were labeled for CF, twice turning them into outs. Denard Span made a catch while crashing into the wall in CF. It would be fair to say that Blackburn kept his fielders on their toes.
The same could not be said of the pitching prospects who finished the game. With the temperature on the field about 90 degrees, the game almost 3 hours old, the Twins leading by 9 and both teams using almost exclusively low minor leaguers, it must have killed home plate umpire Tim Tschida to have to call ball after ball from reliever Joe Testa. The only out the Twins were able to make of the first 8 Pirates who came to the plate in the 9th was on an infield fly that wasn't caught. Ugh.
Brian Buscher hopefully earned himself a day off by playing all 9 innings at 3rd base. I hope I'm not jinxing him, but I want to point out that he hasn't made an error this spring at either 1B or 3B. In fact, the Twins' regulars have only committed a handful or errors all spring, an improvement which I expect to continue into the regular season.
Tomorrow, RA Dickey will start against Tampa while Scott Baker gets his work in vs. some minor leaguers. This start will be Dickey's last big chance to blow it on the field before the Twins are forced to admit to everyone that Philip Humber's option situation meant all along that Dickey had no chance to make the team. For what it's worth, Dickey has had a more impressive spring than Duensing. It might be more useful to have a knuckleballer in the 'pen than a lefty who isn't that good at getting lefties out. Here's hoping Dickey makes it hard on them.
Monday, March 30, 2009
2009 Twins Preview: Rotation
I'm going to start breaking down the 25-man roster with the rotation this year, since that seems to be the most settled piece of the team at this point. Instead of giving predictions for each player's stats, I'm going to give expected lines, numbers above which I'll be satisfied, below which I'll be disappointed.
#1 - Scott Baker
Baker earned the opening day start by being the Twins' most consistent starter last season, particularly during their stumbling stretch drive in September. He delivered quality starts in 18 of his 28 games (64%), and completed at least 5 IP in 25 of them. His volatile days of 2006 and early 2007 appear to be behind him - since the 2007 All-Star break he's gone 264 IP with a 3.44 ERA, 0.9 HR/9, 6.9 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. Finally working with the full confidence of his manager, Baker should have no trouble surpassing 200 IP this season. He's going to get hit on certain days, but he'll even that out with shutout brilliance at least as often. I had a lot of confidence in Baker heading into last season, and he certainly didn't do anything to diminish it.
Expected line: 33 GS, 210 IP, 3.75 ERA, 24 HR, 51 BB, 161 K
#2 - Francisco Liriano
Rushed back to the big leagues after sitting out 2007 recovering from Tommy John surgery, Liriano began 2008 with no command and disastrous results in April. He turned things around quickly, and by late June was out-pitching Livan Hernandez to such a degree that Liriano's agent accused the Twins of trying to game his service clock. He finally rejoined the rotation in August, and though he wasn't the otherworldly force we saw in 2006, he was just about unbeatable until his final 3 starts when, like most of the rest of the staff, he ran out of gas. Despite the poor start, his numbers between the Majors and Minors were quite good: 34 GS, 199.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 15 HR, 188 K, 65 BB. I put no stock in his April numbers; his 11 GS in August and September yielded a 2.74 ERA in 65.1 IP with 60 K, 19 BB and 7 HR, 5 of which came in September when the fatigue had set in. If he can continue to improve his command in 2009, he won't need his 2006 stuff to be an elite pitcher.
Expected line: 33 GS, 210 IP, 3.50 ERA, 18 HR, 65 BB, 200 K
#3 - Kevin Slowey
After an injury forced him to leave his first start early and miss the rest of April, Slowey was nearly as consistent as Baker until his last 2 starts of the year, completing at least 5 IP in 22 of 24 starts during that span, including a team-leading 3 CG. With his K/9 rate climbing to 6.9 in 2008 and his BB/9 leading the league, Slowey's only remaining weakness is his propensity to serve up homers. It's telling that, in his 3 rehab starts at Fort Myers and Rochester, he allowed only 3 ER on 4 H with a 19/4 K/BB rate in 13 IP - 3 of those 4 H were HR. Even the minor leaguers can take him deep. There were many times last year where hitters were able to spoil numerous pitches and extend his pitch count, shortening his outings. He'll need to be able to put people away a little more efficiently to get to the next level. This spring, he's allowed just 2 HR in 20.1 IP with an absurd 20/1 K/BB ratio. In his last spring start, he was able to strike out Albert Pujols with the bases loaded to help escape the jam. Needless to say, if he can keep it up, he'll be on his way to stardom.
Expected line: 33 GS, 200 IP, 4.00 ERA, 28 HR, 35 BB, 150 K
#4 - Glen Perkins
For me, Perkins is the #5 starter, but Nick Blackburn's slow recovery from off-season knee surgery has bumped him down. Perkins has never had the good control of the righties in the rotation, and his strong strikeout numbers never made it past AA. His stellar 12-4 record last year was largely the result of stupendous run support. And yet, like Slowey, he managed to give the Twins at least 5 IP in 21 of 23 starts before crashing in late September. Of the 5 starters, Perkins is the one I'd bet on having a significantly worse season in 2009 - he gives up a lot of hits and walks (1.47 WHIP in '08) and HR (almost 1.5/9 IP) and doesn't strike many guys out (fewer than 4.5/9 IP). And yet, no one is having a better spring: in 26 IP he's allowed just 24 H, 6 BB and 0 HR. I'm not sure how he does it. However well he pitches for the bulk of the season, his biggest test will come in September. He hit the wall so hard last year (3.97 ERA with 18 HR allowed in his first 131.2 IP, 7.45 ERA with 7 HR allowed in his last 19.1 IP) that some have questioned whether he'll have the stamina to finish a full season. But he works so efficiently that he should be able to rack up plenty of innings before he gets to that point.
Expected line: 31 GS, 185 IP, 4.75 ERA, 25 HR, 50 BB, 90 K
#5 - Nick Blackburn
Don't let the .500 record fool you - Blackburn was a much better pitcher than Perkins last year. While their K/9 rates were almost identical, Blackburn gave up the same number of BB and 2 fewer HR in 42.1 more IP. Throwing strikes and pitching to contact enables him to be extremely efficient - it was very common for him to complete 6-7 IP last season with around 90 pitches thrown. Gardy was very soft with him last year, and the lingering knee swelling may foster a little of that at the beginning of this season as well, but with a year of experience under his belt and the relative weakness of the Twins' bullpen, Blackburn should be called upon to pitch even deeper into games this year. Like everyone but Baker, Blackburn struggled in September, but dug deep for a pair of solid games against the White Sox in season's final week. He'll need to show better endurance this season as well, but should have no trouble accumulating innings prior to September, as long as Gardy doesn't keep treating him with kid gloves.
Expected line: 32 GS, 200 IP, 4.50 ERA, 23 HR, 41 BB, 99 K
If everyone in this group can keep taking his turn all season, I think they should accumulate at least a combined 1005 IP with a 4.08 ERA. In a typical season, a staff pitches about 1450 innings, so this rotation sets up the bullpen to have a much easier time in '09 (they had to cover 500 IP last year). Along with what I suspect will be a much improved defense, the starters should be able to reduce the Twins' runs allowed enough to make up for the almost certain drop-off in runs that will result for a lower BA with RISP. If that happens, the Twins should still be able to win around 90 games, and that might be enough this year.
#1 - Scott Baker
Baker earned the opening day start by being the Twins' most consistent starter last season, particularly during their stumbling stretch drive in September. He delivered quality starts in 18 of his 28 games (64%), and completed at least 5 IP in 25 of them. His volatile days of 2006 and early 2007 appear to be behind him - since the 2007 All-Star break he's gone 264 IP with a 3.44 ERA, 0.9 HR/9, 6.9 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. Finally working with the full confidence of his manager, Baker should have no trouble surpassing 200 IP this season. He's going to get hit on certain days, but he'll even that out with shutout brilliance at least as often. I had a lot of confidence in Baker heading into last season, and he certainly didn't do anything to diminish it.
Expected line: 33 GS, 210 IP, 3.75 ERA, 24 HR, 51 BB, 161 K
#2 - Francisco Liriano
Rushed back to the big leagues after sitting out 2007 recovering from Tommy John surgery, Liriano began 2008 with no command and disastrous results in April. He turned things around quickly, and by late June was out-pitching Livan Hernandez to such a degree that Liriano's agent accused the Twins of trying to game his service clock. He finally rejoined the rotation in August, and though he wasn't the otherworldly force we saw in 2006, he was just about unbeatable until his final 3 starts when, like most of the rest of the staff, he ran out of gas. Despite the poor start, his numbers between the Majors and Minors were quite good: 34 GS, 199.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 15 HR, 188 K, 65 BB. I put no stock in his April numbers; his 11 GS in August and September yielded a 2.74 ERA in 65.1 IP with 60 K, 19 BB and 7 HR, 5 of which came in September when the fatigue had set in. If he can continue to improve his command in 2009, he won't need his 2006 stuff to be an elite pitcher.
Expected line: 33 GS, 210 IP, 3.50 ERA, 18 HR, 65 BB, 200 K
#3 - Kevin Slowey
After an injury forced him to leave his first start early and miss the rest of April, Slowey was nearly as consistent as Baker until his last 2 starts of the year, completing at least 5 IP in 22 of 24 starts during that span, including a team-leading 3 CG. With his K/9 rate climbing to 6.9 in 2008 and his BB/9 leading the league, Slowey's only remaining weakness is his propensity to serve up homers. It's telling that, in his 3 rehab starts at Fort Myers and Rochester, he allowed only 3 ER on 4 H with a 19/4 K/BB rate in 13 IP - 3 of those 4 H were HR. Even the minor leaguers can take him deep. There were many times last year where hitters were able to spoil numerous pitches and extend his pitch count, shortening his outings. He'll need to be able to put people away a little more efficiently to get to the next level. This spring, he's allowed just 2 HR in 20.1 IP with an absurd 20/1 K/BB ratio. In his last spring start, he was able to strike out Albert Pujols with the bases loaded to help escape the jam. Needless to say, if he can keep it up, he'll be on his way to stardom.
Expected line: 33 GS, 200 IP, 4.00 ERA, 28 HR, 35 BB, 150 K
#4 - Glen Perkins
For me, Perkins is the #5 starter, but Nick Blackburn's slow recovery from off-season knee surgery has bumped him down. Perkins has never had the good control of the righties in the rotation, and his strong strikeout numbers never made it past AA. His stellar 12-4 record last year was largely the result of stupendous run support. And yet, like Slowey, he managed to give the Twins at least 5 IP in 21 of 23 starts before crashing in late September. Of the 5 starters, Perkins is the one I'd bet on having a significantly worse season in 2009 - he gives up a lot of hits and walks (1.47 WHIP in '08) and HR (almost 1.5/9 IP) and doesn't strike many guys out (fewer than 4.5/9 IP). And yet, no one is having a better spring: in 26 IP he's allowed just 24 H, 6 BB and 0 HR. I'm not sure how he does it. However well he pitches for the bulk of the season, his biggest test will come in September. He hit the wall so hard last year (3.97 ERA with 18 HR allowed in his first 131.2 IP, 7.45 ERA with 7 HR allowed in his last 19.1 IP) that some have questioned whether he'll have the stamina to finish a full season. But he works so efficiently that he should be able to rack up plenty of innings before he gets to that point.
Expected line: 31 GS, 185 IP, 4.75 ERA, 25 HR, 50 BB, 90 K
#5 - Nick Blackburn
Don't let the .500 record fool you - Blackburn was a much better pitcher than Perkins last year. While their K/9 rates were almost identical, Blackburn gave up the same number of BB and 2 fewer HR in 42.1 more IP. Throwing strikes and pitching to contact enables him to be extremely efficient - it was very common for him to complete 6-7 IP last season with around 90 pitches thrown. Gardy was very soft with him last year, and the lingering knee swelling may foster a little of that at the beginning of this season as well, but with a year of experience under his belt and the relative weakness of the Twins' bullpen, Blackburn should be called upon to pitch even deeper into games this year. Like everyone but Baker, Blackburn struggled in September, but dug deep for a pair of solid games against the White Sox in season's final week. He'll need to show better endurance this season as well, but should have no trouble accumulating innings prior to September, as long as Gardy doesn't keep treating him with kid gloves.
Expected line: 32 GS, 200 IP, 4.50 ERA, 23 HR, 41 BB, 99 K
If everyone in this group can keep taking his turn all season, I think they should accumulate at least a combined 1005 IP with a 4.08 ERA. In a typical season, a staff pitches about 1450 innings, so this rotation sets up the bullpen to have a much easier time in '09 (they had to cover 500 IP last year). Along with what I suspect will be a much improved defense, the starters should be able to reduce the Twins' runs allowed enough to make up for the almost certain drop-off in runs that will result for a lower BA with RISP. If that happens, the Twins should still be able to win around 90 games, and that might be enough this year.
Just Like the Real Thing
Twins 3, Rays 2
This was as close to a proper baseball game as I've seen this spring. Each team used just 3 pitchers with the starter going 6 IP, and Tampa made just 2 substitutions, 1 a very reasonable platoon PH in the 9th. Glen Perkins got through the Rays' best Upton-less lineup about 2.5 times, allowing 0 R on 4 H, 1 BB and 4 K. He was aided in his shutout by the mighty right arm of Micheal Cuddyer. With runners at 2nd and 3rd and no outs in the 2nd, Dioner Navarro hit a fly to medium deep RF. As Cuddy lined it up I felt myself hoping that they'd test him. Carl Crawford might have made it a close play; as it was, Cuddyer's throw beat first baseman Carlos Pena to the plate by more than 10 feet. Pena never even touched the plate - Jose Morales blocked the baseline as he tagged, deflecting Pena into foul territory.
I don't think Brian Duensing did himself any favors today. Supposedly on the bubble as a lefty specialist for the 'pen, he fell behind most of the hitters he faced and allowed a HR to Pena, a lefty. Matt Guerrier, on the other hand, continued his recent success, efficiently picking up an extra out in the 9th after Tommy Watkins kicked what should have been the last play of the game.
I continue to worry about Denard Span. He took a couple of called 3rd strikes from Matt Garza today, the same sort he was taking last year and throughout the spring. Belt-high, starting inside and moving over the corner, and down and away. Is he looking for off-speed pitches in those counts? Or is the strike zone just a bit bigger than he thinks it is? Either way, his sophomore campaign won't be a success unless he can make an adjustment to his approach and start spoiling those pitches.
More cuts tomorrow...
This was as close to a proper baseball game as I've seen this spring. Each team used just 3 pitchers with the starter going 6 IP, and Tampa made just 2 substitutions, 1 a very reasonable platoon PH in the 9th. Glen Perkins got through the Rays' best Upton-less lineup about 2.5 times, allowing 0 R on 4 H, 1 BB and 4 K. He was aided in his shutout by the mighty right arm of Micheal Cuddyer. With runners at 2nd and 3rd and no outs in the 2nd, Dioner Navarro hit a fly to medium deep RF. As Cuddy lined it up I felt myself hoping that they'd test him. Carl Crawford might have made it a close play; as it was, Cuddyer's throw beat first baseman Carlos Pena to the plate by more than 10 feet. Pena never even touched the plate - Jose Morales blocked the baseline as he tagged, deflecting Pena into foul territory.
I don't think Brian Duensing did himself any favors today. Supposedly on the bubble as a lefty specialist for the 'pen, he fell behind most of the hitters he faced and allowed a HR to Pena, a lefty. Matt Guerrier, on the other hand, continued his recent success, efficiently picking up an extra out in the 9th after Tommy Watkins kicked what should have been the last play of the game.
I continue to worry about Denard Span. He took a couple of called 3rd strikes from Matt Garza today, the same sort he was taking last year and throughout the spring. Belt-high, starting inside and moving over the corner, and down and away. Is he looking for off-speed pitches in those counts? Or is the strike zone just a bit bigger than he thinks it is? Either way, his sophomore campaign won't be a success unless he can make an adjustment to his approach and start spoiling those pitches.
More cuts tomorrow...
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Draft Day
I had a good time at the draft today. Our league is scoring some unorthodox categories, and it was difficult to assess early on how many guys would be using ESPN's default rankings as their guide, and how many had wasted hours of their lives researching which players averaged the most assists/game over the last few seasons. (Like I did.) As it turned out, most were on the ESPN side, so I was able to get almost all of the guys I wanted. Unfortunately, I missed out on Russell Martin by 4 picks when someone over-exuberantly selected Joe Mauer early in the 6th round (I wasn't going to take him unless he fell to the 8th), starting a mini-run on catchers. I had hoped to take Martin, a serviceable backup like Chris Snyder (we're scoring defense), and then stash Matt Wieters on the bench until the Orioles are ready to start his service clock. I've got Snyder and Wieters, but that leaves me a catcher short at the moment.
I spent the draft at the home of my co-commissioner, Kenneth the Cards fan. I had my spreadsheets laid out on the dining room table while he did his work on a desktop + a laptop in the 2nd bedroom. My greatest satisfaction of the day was listening to him curse several times when I made my picks, depriving him of Carlos Beltran, Joey Devine, JJ Putz and Ricky Nolasco. There may have been others, it got to be a blur after awhile. Maybe that was because the draft lasted only about 2 hours for 25 rounds, and yet I managed to drink at least 5 beers while I was there. Hmm...
I got to see just a bit of the Twins game before we got started. Kevin Slowey continues to make me very happy. I thought Chris Carpenter looked very good - the Twins were rather fortunate to get a few runs off him early. But credit Carlos Gomez for looking to go the other way with a 2-out, 2-run double that ended up being the difference in the game. 2008 Gomez would have struck out feebly on 3 pitches (kinda like 2009 Gomez did in his first AB). As for Jose Mijares, can we just cut him already? Ugh.
There is an interview with Glen Perkins over at Baseball Prospectus that you might want to check out. Hopefully, he'll continue his effective spring tomorrow.
I spent the draft at the home of my co-commissioner, Kenneth the Cards fan. I had my spreadsheets laid out on the dining room table while he did his work on a desktop + a laptop in the 2nd bedroom. My greatest satisfaction of the day was listening to him curse several times when I made my picks, depriving him of Carlos Beltran, Joey Devine, JJ Putz and Ricky Nolasco. There may have been others, it got to be a blur after awhile. Maybe that was because the draft lasted only about 2 hours for 25 rounds, and yet I managed to drink at least 5 beers while I was there. Hmm...
I got to see just a bit of the Twins game before we got started. Kevin Slowey continues to make me very happy. I thought Chris Carpenter looked very good - the Twins were rather fortunate to get a few runs off him early. But credit Carlos Gomez for looking to go the other way with a 2-out, 2-run double that ended up being the difference in the game. 2008 Gomez would have struck out feebly on 3 pitches (kinda like 2009 Gomez did in his first AB). As for Jose Mijares, can we just cut him already? Ugh.
There is an interview with Glen Perkins over at Baseball Prospectus that you might want to check out. Hopefully, he'll continue his effective spring tomorrow.
Saturday, March 28, 2009
The Mayor's Cup is Lost!
Red Sox 9, Twins 4
Sox win Mayor's Cup 3-1
For the 3rd straight year, the Twins have fallen short in their quest for the Mayor's Cup. While players may show a brave face to the media, saying that their main goal in spring training is to "get in shape" or "work on their stuff," we all know that losing out on this hardware has to hurt. These little setbacks build character. At least, that's what I've been telling myself since game #163 last fall.
It's funny how similar today's game was to the Twins' last appearance at City of Palms park, when the score was 9-5 and it was Scott Baker who was touched for a couple of home runs. The real culprit today, even more than the long ball, was poor control by the pitchers. Any time you see more runs than hits in the box score, you know something was off when the defense was on the field. Twins pitchers combined for 8 BB and 2 HBP today, and 5 of those guys scored. Blech.
(My fantasy league this year is scoring IP, ERA, K, BB and HR allowed. Needless to say, Liriano had an atrocious day by those standards, only scoring well with 5 K in his 3 IP.)
Not much happened on the offensive side either (no walks for the Twins today), but that's been the exception for most of this week. Matt Tolbert is starting to look like quite a bruiser (surely the wind has helped him this spring). Delmon Young's 0-4 day including a couple of loud fly ball outs. I wish I could say the same about Denard Span's 0-4.
The Twins worked out a trade with the Yankees this morning, sending Class A pitcher Charles Nolte to NY in order to keep the rights to Jason Jones, who now heads to the Red Wings' rotation. Nolte had a 2.05 ERA in 44 relief appearances for A- Beloit last year, posting a 75/35 K/BB ratio in 70.1 IP. Most impressively, he allowed only 1 HR all season thanks to a really good sinker. He was only a 27th round pick, starting his age 23 season at A+, so I suppose he wasn't too important to the Twins' long-term plans. Then again, a guy who gave up less than a hit per IP, struck out more than a batter per IP, and got grounders almost 5 times as often as he gave up flies could have had some utility as at least a situational righty out of the 'pen. (He would be very useful in my fantasy league, especially to compliment a low-BB, high-HR guy like Kevin Slowey).
With Jones secured a place in AAA, and RA Dickey signed to a minor league contract, and Philip Humber out of options, it seems pretty clear that Humber has a place on the 25-man roster. His outing today was encouraging. Like most of the Twins pitchers, he allowed a walk that came around to score, but he struck out 3 batters in 2 IP, including Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell. His pattern reminded of Glen Perkins when he's effective: back and forth between the fastball and the slow stuff. There's potential there, as with Perkins, if Humber can command the fastball and at least one of his off-speed pitches.
Draft day is tomorrow - I'm ready to dominate!
Sox win Mayor's Cup 3-1
For the 3rd straight year, the Twins have fallen short in their quest for the Mayor's Cup. While players may show a brave face to the media, saying that their main goal in spring training is to "get in shape" or "work on their stuff," we all know that losing out on this hardware has to hurt. These little setbacks build character. At least, that's what I've been telling myself since game #163 last fall.
It's funny how similar today's game was to the Twins' last appearance at City of Palms park, when the score was 9-5 and it was Scott Baker who was touched for a couple of home runs. The real culprit today, even more than the long ball, was poor control by the pitchers. Any time you see more runs than hits in the box score, you know something was off when the defense was on the field. Twins pitchers combined for 8 BB and 2 HBP today, and 5 of those guys scored. Blech.
(My fantasy league this year is scoring IP, ERA, K, BB and HR allowed. Needless to say, Liriano had an atrocious day by those standards, only scoring well with 5 K in his 3 IP.)
Not much happened on the offensive side either (no walks for the Twins today), but that's been the exception for most of this week. Matt Tolbert is starting to look like quite a bruiser (surely the wind has helped him this spring). Delmon Young's 0-4 day including a couple of loud fly ball outs. I wish I could say the same about Denard Span's 0-4.
The Twins worked out a trade with the Yankees this morning, sending Class A pitcher Charles Nolte to NY in order to keep the rights to Jason Jones, who now heads to the Red Wings' rotation. Nolte had a 2.05 ERA in 44 relief appearances for A- Beloit last year, posting a 75/35 K/BB ratio in 70.1 IP. Most impressively, he allowed only 1 HR all season thanks to a really good sinker. He was only a 27th round pick, starting his age 23 season at A+, so I suppose he wasn't too important to the Twins' long-term plans. Then again, a guy who gave up less than a hit per IP, struck out more than a batter per IP, and got grounders almost 5 times as often as he gave up flies could have had some utility as at least a situational righty out of the 'pen. (He would be very useful in my fantasy league, especially to compliment a low-BB, high-HR guy like Kevin Slowey).
With Jones secured a place in AAA, and RA Dickey signed to a minor league contract, and Philip Humber out of options, it seems pretty clear that Humber has a place on the 25-man roster. His outing today was encouraging. Like most of the Twins pitchers, he allowed a walk that came around to score, but he struck out 3 batters in 2 IP, including Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell. His pattern reminded of Glen Perkins when he's effective: back and forth between the fastball and the slow stuff. There's potential there, as with Perkins, if Humber can command the fastball and at least one of his off-speed pitches.
Draft day is tomorrow - I'm ready to dominate!
Monday, March 23, 2009
The Middle Third
Grapefruit League Record: 12-10
I've been submerged in research for my fantasy draft coming up on Sunday. The Twins' latter games of last week weren't terribly inspiring, anyway, the losses coming from the poor play of people who won't be on the team come April. There have been some slow signs of progress, though. The Twins are 2/3 of the way through their spring schedule, so I thought I'd hand out report cards:
Getting It Done
Alexi Casilla - I'm particularly happy to see him stealing bases.
Justin Morneau - throw in his WBC performance and he's at .353/.405/.647. That'll work.
Jason Kubel - though only 2 XBH so far.
Delmon Young - good to see that the pull power he's displayed hasn't diminished his GIDP prowess. I'd like to see a couple of walks before the end of camp.
Brian Buscher - putting up the numbers he had at Rochester.
Brendan Harris - putting up the numbers Buscher had at Rochester.
Carlos Gomez - I'd be happy with a .341 OBP from him in any circumstances, but combined with a 6/5 K/BB rate and .615 SLG% is amazing. Can he sustain it? (The OBP, I mean.)
Francisco Liriano - a few too many walks for me, but the overall line is fantastic.
Glen Perkins - time to see how does with the 3rd trip through the batting order.
Kevin Slowey - damn, he's good.
Craig Breslow - seriously, what were the Indians thinking last year?
Jesse Crain - throw in his WBC performance and he's at 1.00 ERA, 0.33 WHIP and 9.00 K/9.
R.A. Dickey - I did not think he would be leading the team in K/9 at this stage of the spring.
Brian Duensing - though too many walks, not enough strikeouts.
So Far, So Good
Michael Cuddyer - if he can deliver an .802 OPS during the season, too, the Twins will be in good shape.
Mike Redmond - a .700 OPS from a 38-year-old backup catcher ain't too bad.
Nick Punto - combined with his anemic WBC performance, he's done OK this spring.
Matt Tolbert - his versatility, along with his recent power surge, however wind-blown, has him looking like he'll retain his spot on the roster.
Philip Humber - other than his first outing, he's been good - though I'd like to see some more strikeouts.
Kevin Mulvey - too bad the game went extras last week, or his line would be even better.
Jason Jones - the WHIP and K/BB ratio probably aren't good enough to make the team.
Need To Pick It Up
Denard Span - showed some flashes early last week, then right back into the funk.
Joe Crede - with Buscher and Harris both enjoying an OPS in the mid .900s, it'd be nice to see Crede at least crack .600.
Jose Morales - I'd prefer to see him make the team over Drew Butera, since Morales is the better hitter. So, hit Jose!
Scott Baker - almost got through 5 quality IP yesterday. At least he didn't give up any homers. Baby steps...
Matt Guerrier - hopefully, today's quick 1-2-3 inning is a harbinger of things to come.
Jose Mijares - oh, just cut him already!
Need To See More
Joe Nathan
Luis Ayala
Nick Blackburn
Drew Butera
Joe Mauer - someday?
I've been submerged in research for my fantasy draft coming up on Sunday. The Twins' latter games of last week weren't terribly inspiring, anyway, the losses coming from the poor play of people who won't be on the team come April. There have been some slow signs of progress, though. The Twins are 2/3 of the way through their spring schedule, so I thought I'd hand out report cards:
Getting It Done
Alexi Casilla - I'm particularly happy to see him stealing bases.
Justin Morneau - throw in his WBC performance and he's at .353/.405/.647. That'll work.
Jason Kubel - though only 2 XBH so far.
Delmon Young - good to see that the pull power he's displayed hasn't diminished his GIDP prowess. I'd like to see a couple of walks before the end of camp.
Brian Buscher - putting up the numbers he had at Rochester.
Brendan Harris - putting up the numbers Buscher had at Rochester.
Carlos Gomez - I'd be happy with a .341 OBP from him in any circumstances, but combined with a 6/5 K/BB rate and .615 SLG% is amazing. Can he sustain it? (The OBP, I mean.)
Francisco Liriano - a few too many walks for me, but the overall line is fantastic.
Glen Perkins - time to see how does with the 3rd trip through the batting order.
Kevin Slowey - damn, he's good.
Craig Breslow - seriously, what were the Indians thinking last year?
Jesse Crain - throw in his WBC performance and he's at 1.00 ERA, 0.33 WHIP and 9.00 K/9.
R.A. Dickey - I did not think he would be leading the team in K/9 at this stage of the spring.
Brian Duensing - though too many walks, not enough strikeouts.
So Far, So Good
Michael Cuddyer - if he can deliver an .802 OPS during the season, too, the Twins will be in good shape.
Mike Redmond - a .700 OPS from a 38-year-old backup catcher ain't too bad.
Nick Punto - combined with his anemic WBC performance, he's done OK this spring.
Matt Tolbert - his versatility, along with his recent power surge, however wind-blown, has him looking like he'll retain his spot on the roster.
Philip Humber - other than his first outing, he's been good - though I'd like to see some more strikeouts.
Kevin Mulvey - too bad the game went extras last week, or his line would be even better.
Jason Jones - the WHIP and K/BB ratio probably aren't good enough to make the team.
Need To Pick It Up
Denard Span - showed some flashes early last week, then right back into the funk.
Joe Crede - with Buscher and Harris both enjoying an OPS in the mid .900s, it'd be nice to see Crede at least crack .600.
Jose Morales - I'd prefer to see him make the team over Drew Butera, since Morales is the better hitter. So, hit Jose!
Scott Baker - almost got through 5 quality IP yesterday. At least he didn't give up any homers. Baby steps...
Matt Guerrier - hopefully, today's quick 1-2-3 inning is a harbinger of things to come.
Jose Mijares - oh, just cut him already!
Need To See More
Joe Nathan
Luis Ayala
Nick Blackburn
Drew Butera
Joe Mauer - someday?
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
First Cuts
Red Sox 9, Twins 5
Sox lead Mayor's Cup 2-1
Happy St. Patrick's Day! It was fun to watch all the Sox fans in their green garb this afternoon.
I'm going to have to add Scott Baker and Matt Guerrier to the list of players I'm starting to worry about. Baker has now been blown to bits in consecutive starts, allowing 8 ER on 6 HR and 2 2B in 6 IP between the two games. Sure, he's a fly-ball pitcher, and those were hitter's parks with the wind blowing out. But none of the homers were particularly cheap. The worst was the shot by our old friend David Ortiz. Baker had just made him look silly half-swinging at a high and tight fastball, then followed it up with a hanging changeup over the heart of the plate. On 0-2. Eek. Bad pitch selection, bad execution. Hitters are very comfortable against Baker right now, and he's not locating his pitches, and the results aren't pretty. I really want to see 5 solid innings from him the next time out.
I was hoping to see Guerrier shake off his late-season meltdown and get back to business as usual this year, but what we've seen of him so far this spring (8.22 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, 2.35 HR/9, 4.7 BB/9, 4.7 K/9) looks awfully similar to the Guerrier of last August (10.13 ERA, 2.06 WHIP, 2.53 HR/9, 5.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9) and September (10.00 ERA, 2.56 WHIP, 3 HR/9, 8 BB/9, 6 K/9). Never mind my confidence in him - his self-confidence probably depends upon him throwing up a couple of comfortable 0s over his next few outings.
Another inning, another run allowed for Jose Mijares. He was set up to escape with just 1 H allowed, with 2 K under his belt and ahead 0-2 on Jacoby Ellsbury's sub, but he lost him for a walk, then gave up an RBI single. Carlos Gomez bailed him out by cutting down the trailing runner trying to go first-to-third. As you'll see below, Mijares survived this round of cuts, but he still doesn't look like big-league material right now.
The bright spot in today's game for me was Denard Span. He put up his second straight multi-hit game, capped by an aggressive HR leading off the 5th against Jonathan Papelbon. Though it wasn't quite enough to bring his BA north of the Mendoza line, these 2 games have quadrupled his TB, bringing his OPS to a much more palatable .592. The way Casilla and Gomez are swinging, the Twins could have the exciting 9, 1 and 2 hitters they're hoping for in the lineup.
There were some great examples today of how the box score doesn't really tell you how people performed. Brian Buscher, though 0-3 with a K, was pitched exceedingly toughly by Josh Beckett on the strikeout, then was robbed of a base hit on a diving snare of a sharp liner in his last AB. Beckett had a tough 2nd inning, but without ever really being squared up: Michael Cuddyer led off with a hardish grounder right over 3rd for a double, Buscher struck out, Gomez walked on a very close 3-2 pitch, Jose Morales chipped a ball just out of the reach of SS Jed Lowrie, Brendan Harris reached on a swinging bunt down the 3B line, Denard Span got a bloop RBI single just out of the reach of a diving Jason Bay in LF, and Alexi Casilla reached on a swinging bunt down the 1B line. Though he'd needed about 45 pitches to record just 4 outs to that point, Beckett was able to get the next 8 outs on just 15 pitches. (A reporter asked him how it felt to see the offense doing so much to support him on a day when he didn't have his best stuff; a deadpan Beckett replied, "I don't understand the question.")
The Twins cut 20% of the players in camp this morning. Armando Gabino, Anthony Swarzak, Trevor Plouffe and Steve Tolleson were optioned to AAA Rochester, Deibinson Romero was optioned to A+ Fort Myers, and Rob Delaney, Ben Julianel, Danny Lehmann, Danny Valencia, Toby Gardenhire and Dustin Martin were reassigned to minor league camp. No surprises there. Many of those players made the most of their limited opportunities this spring, and will be watched with interest over the course of the coming season.
Sox lead Mayor's Cup 2-1
Happy St. Patrick's Day! It was fun to watch all the Sox fans in their green garb this afternoon.
I'm going to have to add Scott Baker and Matt Guerrier to the list of players I'm starting to worry about. Baker has now been blown to bits in consecutive starts, allowing 8 ER on 6 HR and 2 2B in 6 IP between the two games. Sure, he's a fly-ball pitcher, and those were hitter's parks with the wind blowing out. But none of the homers were particularly cheap. The worst was the shot by our old friend David Ortiz. Baker had just made him look silly half-swinging at a high and tight fastball, then followed it up with a hanging changeup over the heart of the plate. On 0-2. Eek. Bad pitch selection, bad execution. Hitters are very comfortable against Baker right now, and he's not locating his pitches, and the results aren't pretty. I really want to see 5 solid innings from him the next time out.
I was hoping to see Guerrier shake off his late-season meltdown and get back to business as usual this year, but what we've seen of him so far this spring (8.22 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, 2.35 HR/9, 4.7 BB/9, 4.7 K/9) looks awfully similar to the Guerrier of last August (10.13 ERA, 2.06 WHIP, 2.53 HR/9, 5.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9) and September (10.00 ERA, 2.56 WHIP, 3 HR/9, 8 BB/9, 6 K/9). Never mind my confidence in him - his self-confidence probably depends upon him throwing up a couple of comfortable 0s over his next few outings.
Another inning, another run allowed for Jose Mijares. He was set up to escape with just 1 H allowed, with 2 K under his belt and ahead 0-2 on Jacoby Ellsbury's sub, but he lost him for a walk, then gave up an RBI single. Carlos Gomez bailed him out by cutting down the trailing runner trying to go first-to-third. As you'll see below, Mijares survived this round of cuts, but he still doesn't look like big-league material right now.
The bright spot in today's game for me was Denard Span. He put up his second straight multi-hit game, capped by an aggressive HR leading off the 5th against Jonathan Papelbon. Though it wasn't quite enough to bring his BA north of the Mendoza line, these 2 games have quadrupled his TB, bringing his OPS to a much more palatable .592. The way Casilla and Gomez are swinging, the Twins could have the exciting 9, 1 and 2 hitters they're hoping for in the lineup.
There were some great examples today of how the box score doesn't really tell you how people performed. Brian Buscher, though 0-3 with a K, was pitched exceedingly toughly by Josh Beckett on the strikeout, then was robbed of a base hit on a diving snare of a sharp liner in his last AB. Beckett had a tough 2nd inning, but without ever really being squared up: Michael Cuddyer led off with a hardish grounder right over 3rd for a double, Buscher struck out, Gomez walked on a very close 3-2 pitch, Jose Morales chipped a ball just out of the reach of SS Jed Lowrie, Brendan Harris reached on a swinging bunt down the 3B line, Denard Span got a bloop RBI single just out of the reach of a diving Jason Bay in LF, and Alexi Casilla reached on a swinging bunt down the 1B line. Though he'd needed about 45 pitches to record just 4 outs to that point, Beckett was able to get the next 8 outs on just 15 pitches. (A reporter asked him how it felt to see the offense doing so much to support him on a day when he didn't have his best stuff; a deadpan Beckett replied, "I don't understand the question.")
The Twins cut 20% of the players in camp this morning. Armando Gabino, Anthony Swarzak, Trevor Plouffe and Steve Tolleson were optioned to AAA Rochester, Deibinson Romero was optioned to A+ Fort Myers, and Rob Delaney, Ben Julianel, Danny Lehmann, Danny Valencia, Toby Gardenhire and Dustin Martin were reassigned to minor league camp. No surprises there. Many of those players made the most of their limited opportunities this spring, and will be watched with interest over the course of the coming season.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Signs of Life
We're about halfway through spring training, a time when the sample sizes are beginning to get large enough that you'd like to start to see some signs that the players are going to be able to perform. So far, I've been very pleased with most of the Twins' returning players, particularly Carlos Gomez (.333/.400/.815, 3 HR, 5/3 K/BB in 27 AB), Delmon Young (.414/.452/.621, 3 2B, HR in 29 AB), Alexi Casilla (.387/.424/.484, 3 2B, 1/2 K/BB) and Jesse Crain (6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 6 K including the WBC). There are just a handful of guys on last year's roster who were beginning to worry me coming into today's game:
Joe Mauer - hasn't done anything on the field
Denard Span - 3 for 31 with no XBH
Joe Crede - 2 for 24 with no XBH
Nick Punto - 1 for 10 for the Twins and 1 for 12 with 2 BB in the WBC
Mike Redmond - 4 for 20 with 1 XBH
Matt Tolbert - 4 for 32 with no XBH
With the Crede signing likely relegating Brendan Harris to a bench IF role, and Mauer's balky back perhaps necessitating placing a 3rd catcher on the roster, Tolbert's spot is by no means guaranteed, so his struggles don't trouble me too much. However, that also means that Crede and Redmond had better be ready to do some hitting, or the Twins' lineup isn't going to be very deep.
So it was most encouraging to see Redmond, Crede and Span all drill XBH today, combining to go 6 for 8 with 2 R and 3 RBI. This was Redmond's second day in a row with a double, nearly matching his XBH total from all of 2008 (OK, he actually had 6 XBH in 2008, but you get the point). At this stage, it seems like the best case scenario that Mauer would get more frequent days off early in the season, so it's critical that Redmond delivers closer to his 2005-2007 performance, at least in April.
Span and Crede each managed to more than double their Grapefruit League total bases. Between them, they hit for the cycle (guess which one had the triple). Hopefully their numbers will continue to improve over the next week or so.
Philip Humber and Jason Jones both pitched well enough to keep themselves in the running for the last bullpen spot.
Joe Mauer - hasn't done anything on the field
Denard Span - 3 for 31 with no XBH
Joe Crede - 2 for 24 with no XBH
Nick Punto - 1 for 10 for the Twins and 1 for 12 with 2 BB in the WBC
Mike Redmond - 4 for 20 with 1 XBH
Matt Tolbert - 4 for 32 with no XBH
With the Crede signing likely relegating Brendan Harris to a bench IF role, and Mauer's balky back perhaps necessitating placing a 3rd catcher on the roster, Tolbert's spot is by no means guaranteed, so his struggles don't trouble me too much. However, that also means that Crede and Redmond had better be ready to do some hitting, or the Twins' lineup isn't going to be very deep.
So it was most encouraging to see Redmond, Crede and Span all drill XBH today, combining to go 6 for 8 with 2 R and 3 RBI. This was Redmond's second day in a row with a double, nearly matching his XBH total from all of 2008 (OK, he actually had 6 XBH in 2008, but you get the point). At this stage, it seems like the best case scenario that Mauer would get more frequent days off early in the season, so it's critical that Redmond delivers closer to his 2005-2007 performance, at least in April.
Span and Crede each managed to more than double their Grapefruit League total bases. Between them, they hit for the cycle (guess which one had the triple). Hopefully their numbers will continue to improve over the next week or so.
Philip Humber and Jason Jones both pitched well enough to keep themselves in the running for the last bullpen spot.
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Losing Streak
Some thoughts on the last three games:
Pirates 6, Twins 4
Scott Baker was apparently having a lot of trouble locating his breaking stuff, and the Pirates' Bradenton stadium is apparently very friendly to hitters, but 4 HR? Next outing, work on throwing the fastball inside.
I realize he's done a lot of work since he last played to get in shape and prove he's still got it, but 3 HR by Craig Monroe? All off RHP? Nobody learned how to get him out last year? Pirates fans should be prepared for disappointment - Monroe had a pretty good spring for the Twins last year, but it didn't carry over into the regular season.
Reds 1, Twins 0
Francisco Liriano is having a very encouraging spring so far. I don't know how close he is to his pre-surgery form, but he certainly looks good enough to win a lot of games.
One of the things I was hoping to see Denard Span improve on in his second season was a reduction in strikeouts. He took a lot of called 3rd strikes last year, so learning to spoil some of those close pitches seems like an adjustment within his control. But I didn't see any of that in these games, though the strike zone was apparently overly generous in the early goings. I hope we can start seeing some successful ABs out of Span very soon.
Joe Crede is a fantastic glove at 3rd. Still waiting for the bat, though.
Marlins 9, Twins 5
Like most of the Twins starters, Kevin Slowey looks terrific. I'm really excited to see what they can do this year.
Carlos Gomez needed to do a lot to convince me that he's ready to be a productive MLB hitter. And so far, he's doing it. The best sign is his improved discipline. He led off the game with a walk on a 3-2 pitch, then created a run when his speed (going first to third on a groundout) drew a bad throw from Dallas MacPherson. How many times last year did he come up in the middle of a rally and fail to put the ball in play? Today he batted with the bases loaded and no out and hit an RBI groundout. And on his triple, he battled at 1-2 for a few pitches, took a breaking ball off the plate, then drove an outside pitch to the opposite field. If he can keep having those kinds of PAs, he's going to be a big contributor on both sides of the ball.
The first round of cuts is coming up, and if I had a vote, Jose Mijares would be the first name on the list. His putrid outing today, on top of all the walks he's issued previously, plus his terrible conditioning, shows that he's not ready to be a big-league regular. Perhaps he felt that his sterling September, combined with the Twins' disinterest in re-signing Dennys Reyes, meant that he was going to be handed a spot on the roster and that he could start living the good life. His unceremonious demotion would serve as an example to the rest of the Twins' prospects that nothing is given.
This gives me one last (hopefully) opportunity to harp on the short-sightedness of letting Reyes walk. Today's outing notwithstanding, R.A. Dickey has performed rather well this spring, as has Jason Jones. Philip Humber will get an extended look on Monday. With Joe Mauer's nagging back making it ever more likely that the Twins will need to take an extra catcher north, and the rotation showing that they're capable of pitching efficiently and eating some innings, a 6-man bullpen looks plausible. Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Craig Breslow and Luis Ayala will certainly take up 5 of those spots, with Dickey, Jones or Humber as the long reliever. That means there will be one lefty in the 'pen, which means that Breslow will almost certainly be used just as Reyes was - as a one-hitter matchup guy. He can do that, but he could have done more. I feel better about Breslow starting the 7th inning with a lead than I do Guerrier or Ayala. Rather than duplicate Guerrier by signing Ayala, the Twins could have brought back Reyes for essentially the same salary and given Gardy more flexibility, while demonstrating to young Mijares that he still had work to do to make the team. If he had pitched lights-out this spring, great! Take 3 lefties and have a balanced bullpen. Instead, the Twins will likely underuse one of their better relief assets, thereby giving more innings to weaker pitchers.
One of the reasons the Twins had been winning so many games this spring was the solid, and sometimes spectacular, play of their defense. That all went to pieces today, beginning in Mijares' brutal 7th inning. As badly as he was pitching, his outfielders didn't do him any favors, as Michael Cuddyer and Dustin Martin both let catchable balls get over their heads for 2-run doubles. In the 8th, R.A. Dickey was victimized by a missed cutoff and an unfielded bunt. And Brian Duensing suffered the capper in the 9th, as Gardy's boy threw away a DP, leading to 3 unearned runs.
I'm sure tomorrow will be better.
Pirates 6, Twins 4
Scott Baker was apparently having a lot of trouble locating his breaking stuff, and the Pirates' Bradenton stadium is apparently very friendly to hitters, but 4 HR? Next outing, work on throwing the fastball inside.
I realize he's done a lot of work since he last played to get in shape and prove he's still got it, but 3 HR by Craig Monroe? All off RHP? Nobody learned how to get him out last year? Pirates fans should be prepared for disappointment - Monroe had a pretty good spring for the Twins last year, but it didn't carry over into the regular season.
Reds 1, Twins 0
Francisco Liriano is having a very encouraging spring so far. I don't know how close he is to his pre-surgery form, but he certainly looks good enough to win a lot of games.
One of the things I was hoping to see Denard Span improve on in his second season was a reduction in strikeouts. He took a lot of called 3rd strikes last year, so learning to spoil some of those close pitches seems like an adjustment within his control. But I didn't see any of that in these games, though the strike zone was apparently overly generous in the early goings. I hope we can start seeing some successful ABs out of Span very soon.
Joe Crede is a fantastic glove at 3rd. Still waiting for the bat, though.
Marlins 9, Twins 5
Like most of the Twins starters, Kevin Slowey looks terrific. I'm really excited to see what they can do this year.
Carlos Gomez needed to do a lot to convince me that he's ready to be a productive MLB hitter. And so far, he's doing it. The best sign is his improved discipline. He led off the game with a walk on a 3-2 pitch, then created a run when his speed (going first to third on a groundout) drew a bad throw from Dallas MacPherson. How many times last year did he come up in the middle of a rally and fail to put the ball in play? Today he batted with the bases loaded and no out and hit an RBI groundout. And on his triple, he battled at 1-2 for a few pitches, took a breaking ball off the plate, then drove an outside pitch to the opposite field. If he can keep having those kinds of PAs, he's going to be a big contributor on both sides of the ball.
The first round of cuts is coming up, and if I had a vote, Jose Mijares would be the first name on the list. His putrid outing today, on top of all the walks he's issued previously, plus his terrible conditioning, shows that he's not ready to be a big-league regular. Perhaps he felt that his sterling September, combined with the Twins' disinterest in re-signing Dennys Reyes, meant that he was going to be handed a spot on the roster and that he could start living the good life. His unceremonious demotion would serve as an example to the rest of the Twins' prospects that nothing is given.
This gives me one last (hopefully) opportunity to harp on the short-sightedness of letting Reyes walk. Today's outing notwithstanding, R.A. Dickey has performed rather well this spring, as has Jason Jones. Philip Humber will get an extended look on Monday. With Joe Mauer's nagging back making it ever more likely that the Twins will need to take an extra catcher north, and the rotation showing that they're capable of pitching efficiently and eating some innings, a 6-man bullpen looks plausible. Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Craig Breslow and Luis Ayala will certainly take up 5 of those spots, with Dickey, Jones or Humber as the long reliever. That means there will be one lefty in the 'pen, which means that Breslow will almost certainly be used just as Reyes was - as a one-hitter matchup guy. He can do that, but he could have done more. I feel better about Breslow starting the 7th inning with a lead than I do Guerrier or Ayala. Rather than duplicate Guerrier by signing Ayala, the Twins could have brought back Reyes for essentially the same salary and given Gardy more flexibility, while demonstrating to young Mijares that he still had work to do to make the team. If he had pitched lights-out this spring, great! Take 3 lefties and have a balanced bullpen. Instead, the Twins will likely underuse one of their better relief assets, thereby giving more innings to weaker pitchers.
One of the reasons the Twins had been winning so many games this spring was the solid, and sometimes spectacular, play of their defense. That all went to pieces today, beginning in Mijares' brutal 7th inning. As badly as he was pitching, his outfielders didn't do him any favors, as Michael Cuddyer and Dustin Martin both let catchable balls get over their heads for 2-run doubles. In the 8th, R.A. Dickey was victimized by a missed cutoff and an unfielded bunt. And Brian Duensing suffered the capper in the 9th, as Gardy's boy threw away a DP, leading to 3 unearned runs.
I'm sure tomorrow will be better.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Back to the Games
It was great to get to listen to a game after more than a week of going without. Even if it was the Orioles broadcast, and they aired pre-taped interviews during the top of the 7th and 8th innings. And then started singing show tunes in the 9th when they couldn't pronounce our players' names correctly ("I feel Pridie..."). They're obviously bored already.
Despite tallying 17 H in the game, the Twins managed just 4 R, thanks to some especially poor hitting with RISP by Mike Redmond and Brendan Harris. Bad base running was also a problem, as the Twins ran themselves out of rallies in the 1st, when Michael Cuddyer got doubled off 2nd base, and the 4th, when Carlos Gomez got picked off after a leadoff single. Joe Crede got off the schnide, though, and Jason Kubel continues to swing a hot bat - save some of that for April!
Not a great day for Glen Perkins, although not many of the hits he gave up were hit hard. The biggest blow against him was a bloop single down the RF line by Greg Zaun that plated one run and sent another runner to 3rd where he was able to come home on a SF. Perkins seemed to tire in the 3rd, walking 2 to load the bases before escaping unscathed. Nick Blackburn had another efficient inning in his return to game action. And RA Dickey continues to make a strong case for a roster spot with another scoreless frame including 2 K.
The best news of the day, of course, came from back in Fort Myers, where Joe Mauer's MRA revealed no additional problems. The doctors will make an adjustment in the medication he's already been taking to relieve the inflammation in his lower back. Hopefully, that will give him an opportunity to get on the field in time to be ready for the season. We've only got 3 and a half weeks to go, and it's a much bigger step down from Mauer to Redmond than it was a couple of years ago.
Despite tallying 17 H in the game, the Twins managed just 4 R, thanks to some especially poor hitting with RISP by Mike Redmond and Brendan Harris. Bad base running was also a problem, as the Twins ran themselves out of rallies in the 1st, when Michael Cuddyer got doubled off 2nd base, and the 4th, when Carlos Gomez got picked off after a leadoff single. Joe Crede got off the schnide, though, and Jason Kubel continues to swing a hot bat - save some of that for April!
Not a great day for Glen Perkins, although not many of the hits he gave up were hit hard. The biggest blow against him was a bloop single down the RF line by Greg Zaun that plated one run and sent another runner to 3rd where he was able to come home on a SF. Perkins seemed to tire in the 3rd, walking 2 to load the bases before escaping unscathed. Nick Blackburn had another efficient inning in his return to game action. And RA Dickey continues to make a strong case for a roster spot with another scoreless frame including 2 K.
The best news of the day, of course, came from back in Fort Myers, where Joe Mauer's MRA revealed no additional problems. The doctors will make an adjustment in the medication he's already been taking to relieve the inflammation in his lower back. Hopefully, that will give him an opportunity to get on the field in time to be ready for the season. We've only got 3 and a half weeks to go, and it's a much bigger step down from Mauer to Redmond than it was a couple of years ago.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
The Spring So Far
The Twins have played about 1/3 of their spring schedule, going 7-3 (plus 2-0 in exhibition games vs. WBC teams). The WBC has made it a little tougher to evaluate players at this stage, since the exhibition and WBC stats don't count in the normal spring stats. But I'll take a crack anyway.
Getting It Done
Delmon Young - 3 XBH in his first 19 AB and 0 K. 0 BB, too, but I'll take it.
Jason Kubel - .400/.538/.800 doesn't even include his 3 for 3 game vs. Puerto Rico.
Alexi Casilla
Brian Buscher
Brendan Harris - perhaps the Crede signing fired them up?
Justin Morneau - 3 for 7 with 2 doubles for the Twins, 4 for 9 with 2 doubles for team Canada.
Carlos Gomez
Glen Perkins - of course, the first couple times through the order usually wasn't the problem last year
Francisco Liriano
Kevin Slowey - his spring also includes 3 perfect innings vs. the Netherlands
Craig Breslow
Jesse Crain - he struck out all 4 batters he faced in the WBC
RA Dickey
Jason Jones
Dustin Martin
Danny Valencia
Wilson Ramos
David Winfree - good to see some of the Twins' better prospects faring well
So Far, So Good
Joe Nathan - glad the shoulder is OK
Brian Duensing - too many walks, though
Luke Hughes - too many strikeouts, though
Need To Pick It Up
Denard Span - nothing's falling in, though the 4/2 BB/K rate shows that the leadoff approach is still there
Michael Cuddyer
Jason Pridie
Mike Redmond
Luis Matos
Joe Crede - 14 H behind Buscher/Harris so far
Nick Punto - please don't be that Nick Punto this year!
Matt Guerrier - too many walks
Jose Mijares - way too many walks
Scott Baker - too many hits, though 3 scoreless innings vs. Puerto Rico bring his spring ERA to 4.00
Philip Humber - really just the one bad outing, but it was really bad
Need To See More
Luis Ayala
Nick Blackburn
Joe Mauer - starting to get nervous, now.
It's nice to see that the majority of the team is performing well so far. Morneau and Crain should be back from the WBC this week now that Canada has been eliminated.
There are very few spots up for grabs on this year's roster. At this point, I'd have to wonder whether Tolbert can make the team over Busher and Harris. Dickey and Jones both look like better options than Humber for the long relief role.
Getting It Done
Delmon Young - 3 XBH in his first 19 AB and 0 K. 0 BB, too, but I'll take it.
Jason Kubel - .400/.538/.800 doesn't even include his 3 for 3 game vs. Puerto Rico.
Alexi Casilla
Brian Buscher
Brendan Harris - perhaps the Crede signing fired them up?
Justin Morneau - 3 for 7 with 2 doubles for the Twins, 4 for 9 with 2 doubles for team Canada.
Carlos Gomez
Glen Perkins - of course, the first couple times through the order usually wasn't the problem last year
Francisco Liriano
Kevin Slowey - his spring also includes 3 perfect innings vs. the Netherlands
Craig Breslow
Jesse Crain - he struck out all 4 batters he faced in the WBC
RA Dickey
Jason Jones
Dustin Martin
Danny Valencia
Wilson Ramos
David Winfree - good to see some of the Twins' better prospects faring well
So Far, So Good
Joe Nathan - glad the shoulder is OK
Brian Duensing - too many walks, though
Luke Hughes - too many strikeouts, though
Need To Pick It Up
Denard Span - nothing's falling in, though the 4/2 BB/K rate shows that the leadoff approach is still there
Michael Cuddyer
Jason Pridie
Mike Redmond
Luis Matos
Joe Crede - 14 H behind Buscher/Harris so far
Nick Punto - please don't be that Nick Punto this year!
Matt Guerrier - too many walks
Jose Mijares - way too many walks
Scott Baker - too many hits, though 3 scoreless innings vs. Puerto Rico bring his spring ERA to 4.00
Philip Humber - really just the one bad outing, but it was really bad
Need To See More
Luis Ayala
Nick Blackburn
Joe Mauer - starting to get nervous, now.
It's nice to see that the majority of the team is performing well so far. Morneau and Crain should be back from the WBC this week now that Canada has been eliminated.
There are very few spots up for grabs on this year's roster. At this point, I'd have to wonder whether Tolbert can make the team over Busher and Harris. Dickey and Jones both look like better options than Humber for the long relief role.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Back from Tech Week
Back in middle school I used to participate in the school play every year. As I got older, I realized that theater wasn't going to fit into a schedule that usually included piano lessons, choir and chamber choir, soccer, etc. Partly that was because I realized I was a bigger music geek than a theater geek. But mostly it was because of tech week - the week before the show opens, when a sparse rehearsal schedule expands to a nightly obligation as the cast runs the entire production while integrating lights and sound. I gave up theater because I felt like a couldn't afford to do nothing but theater for a week.
Flash forward to this winter, when I decided to supplement my stay-at-home dad days with my first-ever job as Sound Designer for a play. My experience with film prepared me for this rather well, and I got to write a bunch of incidental music as well. It's a credit I'm proud to have on my resume. The show opened Saturday night. So the reason I haven't blogged so far in March is, of course, because last week was tech week. Night after night I came home after 1:30 AM, then had to fill my days with composing, mixing and my normal dad duties. Exhausting. Today feels like a vacation.
Some interesting things have happened around the Twins in that time, and I've kept abreast of them as best I could:
Scott Baker's contract
The Twins and Baker agreed to a 4-year, $15.25 million contract that buys out Baker's arbitration years and includes a $9.25 million club option for his first year of free agency in 2013. For someone who has shown himself to be no worse than a #2 starter over the past season and a half, that strikes me as a bargain. All he has to do is stay healthy and continue to produce at the same level throughout his peak years and the Twins will more than get their money's worth. Good job, Bill Smith! Now go extend Joe Mauer.
Juan Cruz to the Royals
Royals GM Dayton Moore has made some bizarre choices as he's tried to build his team, but the signing of Cruz is a great move for them. With Closer Joakim Soria already one of the game's better 9th-inning pitchers, the Royals now have the best late-inning combination in the division. Their record in games they lead after 7 innings is likely to be very good. The question is: how many late inning leads will they have?
Joe Nathan's shoulder
Nathan had to pull out of the WBC, but he looked none the worse for wear in a perfect inning of work yesterday which included 2 K. A loss for team USA, but probably better for the Twins to have him in camp.
Dennys Reyes signs with the Cardinals
It took Reyes almost 3 weeks into spring training to finally find a team. The Cards will pay him $3 million for 2 years, $1 million more than the Twins paid him for the last 2 years. For a team uncertain about the back end of its bullpen, it never made sense to me that the Twins would be willing to let Reyes walk and hand his role to either Craig Breslow or Jose Mijares. Both of those guys seem to be capable of getting out more than just lefties, and therefore should have been considered for more than just the lefty fireman job that Reyes held. They may assume a broader role as the season goes along, but will probably see unnecessarily limited use, at least at the beginning of the season, when they are asked to get the last out of the 7th inning, then see the ball handed to Jesse Crain or Luis Ayala for the 8th. When you have a guy whose skills are as perfectly suited to bailing RHPs out of jams as Reyes' are, and whose contract requirements are so modest, it strikes me as a bit narrow-minded to let him walk away in favor of someone who may be overqualified for that job. Basically, I don't think putting Breslow or Mijares in Reyes' role is the most efficient use of the Twins' limited bullpen resources. Oh, well.
The spring so far
Now that we're about a third of the way through the spring schedule, I'll take a look at how people are performing so far and post that tomorrow. I can generally say that I've been pleased with the quality of the pitching and defense, and disappointed in much of the offense, although most of the games so far have been played without Mauer and Justin Morneau. It's nice to see the team getting in the habit of playing well and winning - hopefully that will carry over into April.
Flash forward to this winter, when I decided to supplement my stay-at-home dad days with my first-ever job as Sound Designer for a play. My experience with film prepared me for this rather well, and I got to write a bunch of incidental music as well. It's a credit I'm proud to have on my resume. The show opened Saturday night. So the reason I haven't blogged so far in March is, of course, because last week was tech week. Night after night I came home after 1:30 AM, then had to fill my days with composing, mixing and my normal dad duties. Exhausting. Today feels like a vacation.
Some interesting things have happened around the Twins in that time, and I've kept abreast of them as best I could:
Scott Baker's contract
The Twins and Baker agreed to a 4-year, $15.25 million contract that buys out Baker's arbitration years and includes a $9.25 million club option for his first year of free agency in 2013. For someone who has shown himself to be no worse than a #2 starter over the past season and a half, that strikes me as a bargain. All he has to do is stay healthy and continue to produce at the same level throughout his peak years and the Twins will more than get their money's worth. Good job, Bill Smith! Now go extend Joe Mauer.
Juan Cruz to the Royals
Royals GM Dayton Moore has made some bizarre choices as he's tried to build his team, but the signing of Cruz is a great move for them. With Closer Joakim Soria already one of the game's better 9th-inning pitchers, the Royals now have the best late-inning combination in the division. Their record in games they lead after 7 innings is likely to be very good. The question is: how many late inning leads will they have?
Joe Nathan's shoulder
Nathan had to pull out of the WBC, but he looked none the worse for wear in a perfect inning of work yesterday which included 2 K. A loss for team USA, but probably better for the Twins to have him in camp.
Dennys Reyes signs with the Cardinals
It took Reyes almost 3 weeks into spring training to finally find a team. The Cards will pay him $3 million for 2 years, $1 million more than the Twins paid him for the last 2 years. For a team uncertain about the back end of its bullpen, it never made sense to me that the Twins would be willing to let Reyes walk and hand his role to either Craig Breslow or Jose Mijares. Both of those guys seem to be capable of getting out more than just lefties, and therefore should have been considered for more than just the lefty fireman job that Reyes held. They may assume a broader role as the season goes along, but will probably see unnecessarily limited use, at least at the beginning of the season, when they are asked to get the last out of the 7th inning, then see the ball handed to Jesse Crain or Luis Ayala for the 8th. When you have a guy whose skills are as perfectly suited to bailing RHPs out of jams as Reyes' are, and whose contract requirements are so modest, it strikes me as a bit narrow-minded to let him walk away in favor of someone who may be overqualified for that job. Basically, I don't think putting Breslow or Mijares in Reyes' role is the most efficient use of the Twins' limited bullpen resources. Oh, well.
The spring so far
Now that we're about a third of the way through the spring schedule, I'll take a look at how people are performing so far and post that tomorrow. I can generally say that I've been pleased with the quality of the pitching and defense, and disappointed in much of the offense, although most of the games so far have been played without Mauer and Justin Morneau. It's nice to see the team getting in the habit of playing well and winning - hopefully that will carry over into April.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Notes from Game 2
Twins 10, Reds 4
I was bummed that not even the Reds bothered to broadcast this game, so my all my comments are based on the box score and the write-ups.
Nick Blackburn followed Glen Perkins' outing last night with 2 solid innings. It would have been nice to see a strikeout in there, but at least 4 of the 6 batters he faced put the ball on the ground.
The Twins used 8 pitchers in the game, and 7 of them did quite well. The one that didn't was Philip Humber. He gave up 4 R on 4 H and a HBP in his 1 IP, and it didn't sound like the hits were cheap. Meanwhile, R.A. Dickey had a scoreless inning with 3 K. As I said yesterday, it is possible for Humber to pitch himself out of the last bullpen spot. He'll need to put this outing solidly behind him the next time he takes the mound.
I know it's only been 5 AB, but Brian Buscher looks like a man on a mission. At least he's proving that he's got more slugging potential than he showed last season. Brendan Harris had a nice game, too.
Carlos Gomez didn't get a hit, but he didn't strike out in 3 AB either.
Denard Span got a start in left field and went 1 for 3. Keeping the pressure on Delmon Young, no doubt.
Looking forward to listening to the game tomorrow.
I was bummed that not even the Reds bothered to broadcast this game, so my all my comments are based on the box score and the write-ups.
Nick Blackburn followed Glen Perkins' outing last night with 2 solid innings. It would have been nice to see a strikeout in there, but at least 4 of the 6 batters he faced put the ball on the ground.
The Twins used 8 pitchers in the game, and 7 of them did quite well. The one that didn't was Philip Humber. He gave up 4 R on 4 H and a HBP in his 1 IP, and it didn't sound like the hits were cheap. Meanwhile, R.A. Dickey had a scoreless inning with 3 K. As I said yesterday, it is possible for Humber to pitch himself out of the last bullpen spot. He'll need to put this outing solidly behind him the next time he takes the mound.
I know it's only been 5 AB, but Brian Buscher looks like a man on a mission. At least he's proving that he's got more slugging potential than he showed last season. Brendan Harris had a nice game, too.
Carlos Gomez didn't get a hit, but he didn't strike out in 3 AB either.
Denard Span got a start in left field and went 1 for 3. Keeping the pressure on Delmon Young, no doubt.
Looking forward to listening to the game tomorrow.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Back to Baseball
Boof Bonser's exploratory surgery revealed a partially torn labrum and rotator cuff, and he now will likely miss the 2009 season. This is bad news for Boof, who was surely looking forward to improving upon what was, overall, a calamitous 2008 campaign. It was not a sure thing that he would be a solid contributor in the bullpen, but his stuff certainly fits the role, so this injury will cost the Twins some depth they might have used out of the 'pen this year. However, the overall impact on the roster won't be terrible. Philip Humber will now almost certainly make the team (he'll have to utterly stink to risk a trip through waivers after Brian Bass was protected last spring). If the Twins elect to go with 12 pitchers, there may be a slot for Jose Mijares. There may also be a spot for some as yet unsigned reliever - Dennys Reyes is still available! But it also gives them a rationale to leave camp with only 6 relievers (Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Craig Breslow, Luis Ayala and Humber), providing an extra bench spot for this spring's Matt Tolbert. Or for last spring's Matt Tolbert.
Twins 5, Boston 2
Twins lead Mayor's Cup 1-0
It was great to turn on Gameday and listen to TRN again. I was even excited to hear this year's crop of bummer PSAs between innings. And I couldn't wait to find out how the 2008 wunderkinds were growing up on the field.
Glen Perkins was reminiscent of many of his starts last season - at least the first 2 innings of those starts. He was efficient despite allowing a hit in each inning, only struck out a batter every other inning and got 5 fly ball outs. Yep, that's his game.
It was good to see a lot of patience by the hitters vs. Tim Wakefield. It's gotta be tough to face a knuckleballer in your first game, but the Twins made him throw a ton of pitches and dinked their way to a crooked number in the 2nd. Morneau, Cuddyer and Kubel all drew walks.
How typical to see Delmon Young come out hacking at the first pitch in his first AB, get behind 0-2, then come up with an IF hit (ground ball, of course). In his 2nd AB, he wisely followed Kubel's walk by taking a couple of pitches and working ahead 2-1, but then grounded into a DP. No progress there so far.
Brian Buscher was the only player who hit Wakefield hard, and he ripped a double in his 2nd AB. Could he be locked in after being displaced by Joe Crede? Or will this spring be like last year, when he hit a HR in his first game vs. Boston, then scuffled the rest of the month?
Buscher's replacement at 3rd, Danny Valencia, also came up with a couple of hits.
I wasn't terribly surprised to see that of Crain, Nathan and Ayala, it was Nathan who struggled. He's the one whose role is secure, and so he has nothing to do this spring but tune himself up. Maybe a bit less of a mental edge than the other guys had.
Good to get the Mayor's Cup started on the right foot (I want that cup!). I can't wait to see what the rest of the guys have in store tomorrow. Baseball is back!
Twins 5, Boston 2
Twins lead Mayor's Cup 1-0
It was great to turn on Gameday and listen to TRN again. I was even excited to hear this year's crop of bummer PSAs between innings. And I couldn't wait to find out how the 2008 wunderkinds were growing up on the field.
Glen Perkins was reminiscent of many of his starts last season - at least the first 2 innings of those starts. He was efficient despite allowing a hit in each inning, only struck out a batter every other inning and got 5 fly ball outs. Yep, that's his game.
It was good to see a lot of patience by the hitters vs. Tim Wakefield. It's gotta be tough to face a knuckleballer in your first game, but the Twins made him throw a ton of pitches and dinked their way to a crooked number in the 2nd. Morneau, Cuddyer and Kubel all drew walks.
How typical to see Delmon Young come out hacking at the first pitch in his first AB, get behind 0-2, then come up with an IF hit (ground ball, of course). In his 2nd AB, he wisely followed Kubel's walk by taking a couple of pitches and working ahead 2-1, but then grounded into a DP. No progress there so far.
Brian Buscher was the only player who hit Wakefield hard, and he ripped a double in his 2nd AB. Could he be locked in after being displaced by Joe Crede? Or will this spring be like last year, when he hit a HR in his first game vs. Boston, then scuffled the rest of the month?
Buscher's replacement at 3rd, Danny Valencia, also came up with a couple of hits.
I wasn't terribly surprised to see that of Crain, Nathan and Ayala, it was Nathan who struggled. He's the one whose role is secure, and so he has nothing to do this spring but tune himself up. Maybe a bit less of a mental edge than the other guys had.
Good to get the Mayor's Cup started on the right foot (I want that cup!). I can't wait to see what the rest of the guys have in store tomorrow. Baseball is back!
Saturday, February 21, 2009
An Upgrade at Third Base?
The Twins will hold a press conference Sunday morning to announce the signing of All-Star 3rd baseman Joe Crede. I've always been fine with the Buscher/Harris platoon at 3rd, figuring that they'd combine for an .800 or better OPS if allowed to face opposite-handed pitchers, but playing obviously subpar defense. I certainly didn't feel that any of the available players this offseason were worth trading good players or signing to big, multi-year contracts. While surveying that field back in November, I had this to say:
As for the free agents, Crede is the best choice. He's been hampered by injuries the last 2 seasons, and is therefore likely to take a 1-2 year deal for reasonable money in order to try and raise his value for his next contract while he's still in his low 30s. If he could repeat his 2006 numbers (.283/.323/.506, 30 HR), the Twins would have the bat they're looking for, while also improving themselves defensively. If he performs closer to his career average, they're still getting good pop from their #8 hitter. But I'd definitely keep Buscher around in case Crede gets hurt again.
Despite demonic agent Scott Boras' best efforts to get Crede a $7 million guaranteed contract, the scenario I foresaw has played out. As this winter's glacial free agent market unfolded, it became clear that the teams that jumped in early ended up spending vastly more than they needed to (see: Raul Ibanez). Bill Smith is to be commended for sticking to his guns throughout the Twins' lengthy negotiations with Boras. By wisely assessing that the Buscher/Harris option was as good a temporary solution as anything else out there, the Twins kept themselves in a position to walk away from unreasonable demands.
The rough details of the contract illustrate a deal that is perfect for the Twins. Crede is guaranteed only $2.5 million, less than the Twins paid to Mike Lamb last year (and this year, for that matter). If Crede stays in the lineup for 525 PA, he'll receive $7 million - still a bargain for a veteran slugger who plays good defense. Crede has every incentive to produce, not only to earn as much money as he can this year, but to prove that he's durable enough and productive enough to merit an inflated contract next offseason. The Twins can wish him the best as they make room for the likely arrival of Danny Valencia some time in 2010, with some combination of Buscher/Harris/Luke Hughes briefly holding down the fort until then.
This move will ripple down the Twins' depth chart. Harris will surely become the Twins' primary bench IF, though his fielding isn't quite as good as that of Matt Tolbert. With 3 RHB on the bench in most games (Harris, Mike Redmond and either Delmon Young or Carlos Gomez), Buscher stands a pretty good chance of earning the final bench spot. He'll be the one to spell Morneau at 1B on the rare days Justin comes in from the field, and there's already talk of trying Buscher out at some other IF/OF positions this spring to increase his versatility. The odd man out will likely be Tolbert, although Gardy has signaled that the Twins might be inclined to come north with only 11 pitchers. That's always been the best idea, but they were handcuffing themselves by wanting to keep both Philip Humber and Boof Bonser in the bullpen. With Bonser now potentially facing some DL time with his shoulder soreness, that dilemma could be clearing itself up.
Fans should temper their expectations for what Crede will bring to the lineup, and not just because he was only able to play 144 games over the last 2 seasons. Despite the devastation he wrought on the Twins last year (.400/.429/1.050 with 7 HR and 17 RBI), Crede is just a .257/.306/.447 career hitter. That OBP is not much better than that of Carlos Gomez. It isn't that Crede strikes out too much (about once every 7 AB), he just gets under the ball a lot. That helps him hit a HR every 20 AB or so, but it also results in a lot of popups. His power numbers may not translate perfectly in the spacious LF at the Metrodome. Though his K/BB rate is much better vs. LHP (31/30 over the last 3 years, as compared to 96/38 vs. RHP), he's actually hit RHP much better recently (.276/.314/.495 compared to .224/.299/.375 vs. LHP, again from 2006-2008). In light of that, it might make more sense to give Crede days off against southpaws in favor of Harris, who is at .295/.360/.440 vs. LHP for his career, rather than subbing Buscher vs. RHP.
Because of his limitations as a hitter, it still makes sense to use Michael Cuddyer (.268/.344/.441) in between Morneau and Jason Kubel. The difference in career SLG% is minimal, and Cuddyer's significant edge in OBP will help sustain more rallies. Crede should still get plenty of chances to cap big innings from the 7th spot, where he typically hit in Chicago. If Delmon Young proves to be a regular and can consistently perform at the level he did from June through the end of the 2008 season, I'd even slot him ahead of Crede at #7 (although Crede isn't likely to hit into as many DP).
The one thing the Twins should be able to count on from a healthy Crede is above-average defense. Even if he doesn't hit as well as we'd all like, that piece of his game should give him some consistent value, especially from the bottom of the order. He and Punto, while not necessarily getting on base a whole lot, should make for a very strong left side of the infield. In fact, the Twins infield defense as a whole should be much better than last year, when shaky fielding was as big a reason as any that the team narrowly failed to make the postseason.
He's not a savior, but Crede does add value to the 2009 Twins, especially at the price they were able to acquire him for. Though it took them nearly a week into spring training to do it, the Twins have finally fulfilled their offseason objectives, and are as well-positioned as any other team to compete for the AL Central title.
As for the free agents, Crede is the best choice. He's been hampered by injuries the last 2 seasons, and is therefore likely to take a 1-2 year deal for reasonable money in order to try and raise his value for his next contract while he's still in his low 30s. If he could repeat his 2006 numbers (.283/.323/.506, 30 HR), the Twins would have the bat they're looking for, while also improving themselves defensively. If he performs closer to his career average, they're still getting good pop from their #8 hitter. But I'd definitely keep Buscher around in case Crede gets hurt again.
Despite demonic agent Scott Boras' best efforts to get Crede a $7 million guaranteed contract, the scenario I foresaw has played out. As this winter's glacial free agent market unfolded, it became clear that the teams that jumped in early ended up spending vastly more than they needed to (see: Raul Ibanez). Bill Smith is to be commended for sticking to his guns throughout the Twins' lengthy negotiations with Boras. By wisely assessing that the Buscher/Harris option was as good a temporary solution as anything else out there, the Twins kept themselves in a position to walk away from unreasonable demands.
The rough details of the contract illustrate a deal that is perfect for the Twins. Crede is guaranteed only $2.5 million, less than the Twins paid to Mike Lamb last year (and this year, for that matter). If Crede stays in the lineup for 525 PA, he'll receive $7 million - still a bargain for a veteran slugger who plays good defense. Crede has every incentive to produce, not only to earn as much money as he can this year, but to prove that he's durable enough and productive enough to merit an inflated contract next offseason. The Twins can wish him the best as they make room for the likely arrival of Danny Valencia some time in 2010, with some combination of Buscher/Harris/Luke Hughes briefly holding down the fort until then.
This move will ripple down the Twins' depth chart. Harris will surely become the Twins' primary bench IF, though his fielding isn't quite as good as that of Matt Tolbert. With 3 RHB on the bench in most games (Harris, Mike Redmond and either Delmon Young or Carlos Gomez), Buscher stands a pretty good chance of earning the final bench spot. He'll be the one to spell Morneau at 1B on the rare days Justin comes in from the field, and there's already talk of trying Buscher out at some other IF/OF positions this spring to increase his versatility. The odd man out will likely be Tolbert, although Gardy has signaled that the Twins might be inclined to come north with only 11 pitchers. That's always been the best idea, but they were handcuffing themselves by wanting to keep both Philip Humber and Boof Bonser in the bullpen. With Bonser now potentially facing some DL time with his shoulder soreness, that dilemma could be clearing itself up.
Fans should temper their expectations for what Crede will bring to the lineup, and not just because he was only able to play 144 games over the last 2 seasons. Despite the devastation he wrought on the Twins last year (.400/.429/1.050 with 7 HR and 17 RBI), Crede is just a .257/.306/.447 career hitter. That OBP is not much better than that of Carlos Gomez. It isn't that Crede strikes out too much (about once every 7 AB), he just gets under the ball a lot. That helps him hit a HR every 20 AB or so, but it also results in a lot of popups. His power numbers may not translate perfectly in the spacious LF at the Metrodome. Though his K/BB rate is much better vs. LHP (31/30 over the last 3 years, as compared to 96/38 vs. RHP), he's actually hit RHP much better recently (.276/.314/.495 compared to .224/.299/.375 vs. LHP, again from 2006-2008). In light of that, it might make more sense to give Crede days off against southpaws in favor of Harris, who is at .295/.360/.440 vs. LHP for his career, rather than subbing Buscher vs. RHP.
Because of his limitations as a hitter, it still makes sense to use Michael Cuddyer (.268/.344/.441) in between Morneau and Jason Kubel. The difference in career SLG% is minimal, and Cuddyer's significant edge in OBP will help sustain more rallies. Crede should still get plenty of chances to cap big innings from the 7th spot, where he typically hit in Chicago. If Delmon Young proves to be a regular and can consistently perform at the level he did from June through the end of the 2008 season, I'd even slot him ahead of Crede at #7 (although Crede isn't likely to hit into as many DP).
The one thing the Twins should be able to count on from a healthy Crede is above-average defense. Even if he doesn't hit as well as we'd all like, that piece of his game should give him some consistent value, especially from the bottom of the order. He and Punto, while not necessarily getting on base a whole lot, should make for a very strong left side of the infield. In fact, the Twins infield defense as a whole should be much better than last year, when shaky fielding was as big a reason as any that the team narrowly failed to make the postseason.
He's not a savior, but Crede does add value to the 2009 Twins, especially at the price they were able to acquire him for. Though it took them nearly a week into spring training to do it, the Twins have finally fulfilled their offseason objectives, and are as well-positioned as any other team to compete for the AL Central title.
Monday, February 16, 2009
Nick Blackburn is Better Than They Think
A lot of us were taken by surprise last winter when Baseball America ranked Nick Blackburn the Twins' #1 prospect. They saw something that most prognosticators didn't, but Blackburn's 2008 season seemed to prove them right. I would have expected Blackburn's projection for 2009 to be more optimistic based on that performance. (I suppose it is, relative to what was out there last year.) PECOTA has him throwing 160 IP over 25 GS, with a 5.22 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 75/42 K/BB ratio. This following a season in which he threw 193.1 IP over 33 GS, with a 4.05 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 96/39 K/BB ratio.
Why the down projection? Is there some indicator in Blackburn's minor league history that would suggest a regression is likely? Was he just really lucky last year?
To answer the recent history question, here are Blackburn's BB and K numbers from each level over the last 4 seasons:
2005: 93.7 IP, 16 BB, 55 K, 1.5 BB/9, 5.3 K/9 at A+
2005: 49.0 IP, 10 BB, 27 K, 1.8 BB/9, 5.0 K/9 at AA
2005: 14.0 IP, 3 BB, 7 K, 1.9 BB/9, 4.5 K/9 at AAA
2006: 132.1 IP, 37 BB, 81 K, 2.5 BB/9, 5.5 K/9 at AA
2007: 38.0 IP, 7 BB, 18 K, 1.7 BB/9, 4.3 K/9 at AA
2007: 110.2 IP, 12 BB, 57 K, 1.0 BB/9, 4.6 K/9 at AAA
2007: 11.2 IP, 2 BB, 8 K, 1.5 BB/9, 6.2 K/9 at MLB
2008: 193.1 IP, 39 BB, 96 K, 1.8 BB/9, 4.6 K/9 at MLB
A couple of those stops have such small sample sizes that they aren't really worth talking about, but you can see the pattern. It should have come as no surprise that Blackburn was able to put up a BB/9 under 2.0 and K/9 between 4.5 and 5.0 in 2008. But PECOTA couldn't fathom it - those normal for Blackburn numbers were absolutely off the charts according to last year's projection. In its most generous version of his possible 2008, it couldn't see him doing better than 2.3 BB/9 and 4.0 K/9. Though it's significantly increased his forecasted innings and shaved a little off his ERA and WHIP, it still has him at 2.4 BB/9 and 4.2 K/9. Whah? Why should a pitcher entering his peak years suddenly have notably poorer control numbers? I don't buy it.
What about luck?
Here are his HR/9 and BABIP numbers over those same levels:
2005: 0.5 HR/9, .302 BABIP at A+
2005: 0.2 HR/9, .239 BABIP at AA
2005: 1.3 HR/9, .346 BABIP at AAA
2006: 0.7 HR/9, .310 BABIP at AA
2007: 0.2 HR/9, .267 BABIP at AA
2007: 0.6 HR/9, .255 BABIP at AAA
2007: 1.5 HR/9, .405 BABIP at MLB
2008: 1.1 HR/9, .329 BABIP at MLB
Again, giving a little less emphasis to some of the teeny sample sizes there, it should be apparent that a lucky season for Blackburn looks like 2005 or 2007 - HR/9 under 0.7 and BABIP under .300. It stands to reason that those rates could be significantly lower than 2008 in some forthcoming MLB season. PECOTA judged that Blackburn would need a BABIP of .288 to reach the ERA and WHIP numbers he actually accumulated last season. But by drastically exceeding the PECOTA BB/9 numbers, Blackburn made room for himself to have a lot more balls fall in for hits.
Setting aside the projections for a moment, I want to see what I can glean from the games Blackburn pitched last season. Checking out his game log, some things pop out at me:
Over his final 53.1 IP (27.6% of the season) he allowed 66 H (29.4%), 10 HR (43.5%) and 20 BB (51.3%).
He allowed 8 of his HR (34.8%) in 2 lousy starts.
He didn't get a win in 5 games he left with the lead, and had another in which the tying run scored on an error on what should have been the final out of the 7th inning. His offense only bailed him out of 2 of the games he left trailing.
In 16 starts from April-June, he threw as many as 95 pitches only once, despite pitching well enough to keep the Twins in the game into the 6th inning in 11 of them. Based on pitch count and the score, one could argue that Blackburn could have pitched deeper into 16 of his 33 starts last year.
15 of the 102 R Blackburn allowed were unearned, indicating that poor defense behind him extended several innings.
Based on that information, I would surmise that Blackburn would have easily surpassed 200 IP had he not been a rookie (Gardy would have let him get closer to 100 pitches more often early in the season) and had his defense played better behind him. With a bit better support from his teammates at the plate and in the bullpen, it isn't outlandish to think that he could have won 16 games. As the season wore on, he either tired, or the scouting reports caught up to him. Since his BABIP remained relatively unchanged, I'm inclined to think that he just hung more pitches, which would also explain the increase in walks - he just wasn't as good at locating over his final 10 starts. As a control pitcher with mediocre stuff, opponents know he's going to be around the plate, and that he's hittable, so they take their swings early. That will always result in a high H/9, but it will also help with his efficiency.
To get an even more focused idea of what a typical Blackburn start looked like in 2008, I'm going to throw out his 2 most exceptionally good and bad games. Namely:
4/2 vs. LAA: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 15/4 GB/FB (for the season, his GB/FB was 0.84)
7/2 vs. DET: 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
6/27 vs. MIL: 4.2 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 4 HR
9/14 vs BAL: 4.0 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 4 HR (there were four different months last year in which Blackburn didn't allow 4 HR)
Removing those outliers leaves this line for his remaining 29 starts:
170.2 IP, 198 H, 74 ER, 15 HR, 37 BB, 79 K, 3.90 ERA, 0.8 HR/9, 1.38 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 4.2 K/9, just shy of 6.0 IP/GS.
As I think about what to expect from Blackburn in 2009, those last 4 rates are the worst numbers I'd anticipate. But because I think Gardy will allow him to pitch deeper into games this season now that he's got a full season and some big games under his belt, and because I bet he won't see quite as many defensive miscues behind him this year, and because I expect him to be able to maintain his BB/9 and K/9 rates from the first 4 months of 2008 a little bit deeper into 2009, and because I think there's a decent chance that his BABIP will be lower than last year's, I believe that Blackburn can put up even better numbers this year than he did in 2008. I certainly don't think he'll have any trouble outperforming the projections.
Why the down projection? Is there some indicator in Blackburn's minor league history that would suggest a regression is likely? Was he just really lucky last year?
To answer the recent history question, here are Blackburn's BB and K numbers from each level over the last 4 seasons:
2005: 93.7 IP, 16 BB, 55 K, 1.5 BB/9, 5.3 K/9 at A+
2005: 49.0 IP, 10 BB, 27 K, 1.8 BB/9, 5.0 K/9 at AA
2005: 14.0 IP, 3 BB, 7 K, 1.9 BB/9, 4.5 K/9 at AAA
2006: 132.1 IP, 37 BB, 81 K, 2.5 BB/9, 5.5 K/9 at AA
2007: 38.0 IP, 7 BB, 18 K, 1.7 BB/9, 4.3 K/9 at AA
2007: 110.2 IP, 12 BB, 57 K, 1.0 BB/9, 4.6 K/9 at AAA
2007: 11.2 IP, 2 BB, 8 K, 1.5 BB/9, 6.2 K/9 at MLB
2008: 193.1 IP, 39 BB, 96 K, 1.8 BB/9, 4.6 K/9 at MLB
A couple of those stops have such small sample sizes that they aren't really worth talking about, but you can see the pattern. It should have come as no surprise that Blackburn was able to put up a BB/9 under 2.0 and K/9 between 4.5 and 5.0 in 2008. But PECOTA couldn't fathom it - those normal for Blackburn numbers were absolutely off the charts according to last year's projection. In its most generous version of his possible 2008, it couldn't see him doing better than 2.3 BB/9 and 4.0 K/9. Though it's significantly increased his forecasted innings and shaved a little off his ERA and WHIP, it still has him at 2.4 BB/9 and 4.2 K/9. Whah? Why should a pitcher entering his peak years suddenly have notably poorer control numbers? I don't buy it.
What about luck?
Here are his HR/9 and BABIP numbers over those same levels:
2005: 0.5 HR/9, .302 BABIP at A+
2005: 0.2 HR/9, .239 BABIP at AA
2005: 1.3 HR/9, .346 BABIP at AAA
2006: 0.7 HR/9, .310 BABIP at AA
2007: 0.2 HR/9, .267 BABIP at AA
2007: 0.6 HR/9, .255 BABIP at AAA
2007: 1.5 HR/9, .405 BABIP at MLB
2008: 1.1 HR/9, .329 BABIP at MLB
Again, giving a little less emphasis to some of the teeny sample sizes there, it should be apparent that a lucky season for Blackburn looks like 2005 or 2007 - HR/9 under 0.7 and BABIP under .300. It stands to reason that those rates could be significantly lower than 2008 in some forthcoming MLB season. PECOTA judged that Blackburn would need a BABIP of .288 to reach the ERA and WHIP numbers he actually accumulated last season. But by drastically exceeding the PECOTA BB/9 numbers, Blackburn made room for himself to have a lot more balls fall in for hits.
Setting aside the projections for a moment, I want to see what I can glean from the games Blackburn pitched last season. Checking out his game log, some things pop out at me:
Over his final 53.1 IP (27.6% of the season) he allowed 66 H (29.4%), 10 HR (43.5%) and 20 BB (51.3%).
He allowed 8 of his HR (34.8%) in 2 lousy starts.
He didn't get a win in 5 games he left with the lead, and had another in which the tying run scored on an error on what should have been the final out of the 7th inning. His offense only bailed him out of 2 of the games he left trailing.
In 16 starts from April-June, he threw as many as 95 pitches only once, despite pitching well enough to keep the Twins in the game into the 6th inning in 11 of them. Based on pitch count and the score, one could argue that Blackburn could have pitched deeper into 16 of his 33 starts last year.
15 of the 102 R Blackburn allowed were unearned, indicating that poor defense behind him extended several innings.
Based on that information, I would surmise that Blackburn would have easily surpassed 200 IP had he not been a rookie (Gardy would have let him get closer to 100 pitches more often early in the season) and had his defense played better behind him. With a bit better support from his teammates at the plate and in the bullpen, it isn't outlandish to think that he could have won 16 games. As the season wore on, he either tired, or the scouting reports caught up to him. Since his BABIP remained relatively unchanged, I'm inclined to think that he just hung more pitches, which would also explain the increase in walks - he just wasn't as good at locating over his final 10 starts. As a control pitcher with mediocre stuff, opponents know he's going to be around the plate, and that he's hittable, so they take their swings early. That will always result in a high H/9, but it will also help with his efficiency.
To get an even more focused idea of what a typical Blackburn start looked like in 2008, I'm going to throw out his 2 most exceptionally good and bad games. Namely:
4/2 vs. LAA: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 15/4 GB/FB (for the season, his GB/FB was 0.84)
7/2 vs. DET: 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
6/27 vs. MIL: 4.2 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 4 HR
9/14 vs BAL: 4.0 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 4 HR (there were four different months last year in which Blackburn didn't allow 4 HR)
Removing those outliers leaves this line for his remaining 29 starts:
170.2 IP, 198 H, 74 ER, 15 HR, 37 BB, 79 K, 3.90 ERA, 0.8 HR/9, 1.38 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 4.2 K/9, just shy of 6.0 IP/GS.
As I think about what to expect from Blackburn in 2009, those last 4 rates are the worst numbers I'd anticipate. But because I think Gardy will allow him to pitch deeper into games this season now that he's got a full season and some big games under his belt, and because I bet he won't see quite as many defensive miscues behind him this year, and because I expect him to be able to maintain his BB/9 and K/9 rates from the first 4 months of 2008 a little bit deeper into 2009, and because I think there's a decent chance that his BABIP will be lower than last year's, I believe that Blackburn can put up even better numbers this year than he did in 2008. I certainly don't think he'll have any trouble outperforming the projections.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Latest Projection
In the run-up to last fall's election, a friend tipped me off to Nate Silver's polling projection site, fivethirtyeight.com. Silver called the election with such striking precision that I thought I'd better check out his baseball projection system, PECOTA. It lives at Baseball Prospectus, and I treated myself to a premium subscription after the holidays. After familiarizing myself with a host of new stats (FRAA, WXRL), I checked out how accurately they had predicted the Twins' 2008 performance. They were miles off for most players, and certainly for the team as a whole, which they expected to win 73 games, as I recall (that page has been updated for 2009 now). So while it is nice to see that they anticipate the Twins winning 6 more games than they predicted last year, that still only gets us to 79 wins, 5 games back of Cleveland.
Obviously, I hope they have similarly underestimated the potential of the 2009 Twins as they did last year. The system is weighted toward the results of the previous 3 seasons, so it was understandable that many of the Twins' players would be undervalued when their lousy 2005 and 2007 seasons featured so prominently. But I would have expected much better this year, since the team performed so well in 2006 and 2008. However, the team as a whole is projected to score 769 runs, allow 802 and hit .270/.330/.400. Earlier this winter I calculated that if the Twins' veterans repeated their career averages and the young players, on average, maintained their 2008 performances, the team should score 814 runs, allow 671 and hit .285/.349/.426. Clearly, PECOTA doesn't think many Twins will achieve those performances. There's a lot there to quibble with:
Entering the prime years of his career, Joe Mauer is projected to underperform his career OPS by about .025 points.
In the prime of his career, Justin Morneau is projected to hit only 23 HR - the same number he hit last year after 2 straight 30+ HR campaigns.
They expect Denard Span to steal only 19 bases in 539 PA, just 1 more than he stole in 2008 in 411 PA.
Given 50% of the playing time at 3rd, Brian Buscher is projected to hit .250/.310/.390 (about the same as Carlos Gomez), which would represent a .099 point drop in OPS from his rather timid 2008 performance vs. RHP.
And on and on. As for the pitchers:
No starter is projected to throw more than 175 IP.
Scott Baker should perform in line with his career averages for K and HR, but give up 10% more walks.
Kevin Slowey should more or less match last year's numbers for K and HR, but give up 38% more walks.
Of the relievers, only Joe Nathan is expected to have a WHIP under 1.30. The Twins have had at least 3 pitchers in their bullpen under that mark in every year of Ron Gardenhire's tenure.
There are also some odd allocations of playing time: Jason Pridie gets 15% of the playing time at DH; Boof Bonser, Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey split 29 rather poor starts; Jason Jones and RA Dickey each get 40 IP of long relief.
Basically, some of the contributions that really hurt the Twins' numbers in the projection are really unlikely to happen. Jason Pridie will never be the DH - whatever playing time he gets will be in the field, where his glove can be an asset. If something happens to Jason Kubel that prevents him from suiting up, it's much more likely that someone like Luke Hughes would be called up to fill those ABs.
Jason Jones was the Twins' Rule 5 pickup from the Yankees - he has to stay on the 25-man roster all season or he goes back to NY. Bonser and Humber are both out of options, meaning that they would likely be claimed off waivers if they don't stay on the 25-man all season. With Nathan, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Craig Breslow all locks to fill slots in the 'pen, and newly-signed Luis Ayala also likely to get a spot, that leaves 2 slots open for Bonser, Humber and Jones (assuming the Twins go with a 7-man bullpen). One of those guys, and the negative value he brings with him, will never throw a pitch for the Twins in 2008, and those innings will instead be taken by someone better.
As the spring training competition unfolds, PECOTA will update its projections, and I bet the Twins' expected win total will improve as things progress.
Obviously, I hope they have similarly underestimated the potential of the 2009 Twins as they did last year. The system is weighted toward the results of the previous 3 seasons, so it was understandable that many of the Twins' players would be undervalued when their lousy 2005 and 2007 seasons featured so prominently. But I would have expected much better this year, since the team performed so well in 2006 and 2008. However, the team as a whole is projected to score 769 runs, allow 802 and hit .270/.330/.400. Earlier this winter I calculated that if the Twins' veterans repeated their career averages and the young players, on average, maintained their 2008 performances, the team should score 814 runs, allow 671 and hit .285/.349/.426. Clearly, PECOTA doesn't think many Twins will achieve those performances. There's a lot there to quibble with:
Entering the prime years of his career, Joe Mauer is projected to underperform his career OPS by about .025 points.
In the prime of his career, Justin Morneau is projected to hit only 23 HR - the same number he hit last year after 2 straight 30+ HR campaigns.
They expect Denard Span to steal only 19 bases in 539 PA, just 1 more than he stole in 2008 in 411 PA.
Given 50% of the playing time at 3rd, Brian Buscher is projected to hit .250/.310/.390 (about the same as Carlos Gomez), which would represent a .099 point drop in OPS from his rather timid 2008 performance vs. RHP.
And on and on. As for the pitchers:
No starter is projected to throw more than 175 IP.
Scott Baker should perform in line with his career averages for K and HR, but give up 10% more walks.
Kevin Slowey should more or less match last year's numbers for K and HR, but give up 38% more walks.
Of the relievers, only Joe Nathan is expected to have a WHIP under 1.30. The Twins have had at least 3 pitchers in their bullpen under that mark in every year of Ron Gardenhire's tenure.
There are also some odd allocations of playing time: Jason Pridie gets 15% of the playing time at DH; Boof Bonser, Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey split 29 rather poor starts; Jason Jones and RA Dickey each get 40 IP of long relief.
Basically, some of the contributions that really hurt the Twins' numbers in the projection are really unlikely to happen. Jason Pridie will never be the DH - whatever playing time he gets will be in the field, where his glove can be an asset. If something happens to Jason Kubel that prevents him from suiting up, it's much more likely that someone like Luke Hughes would be called up to fill those ABs.
Jason Jones was the Twins' Rule 5 pickup from the Yankees - he has to stay on the 25-man roster all season or he goes back to NY. Bonser and Humber are both out of options, meaning that they would likely be claimed off waivers if they don't stay on the 25-man all season. With Nathan, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Craig Breslow all locks to fill slots in the 'pen, and newly-signed Luis Ayala also likely to get a spot, that leaves 2 slots open for Bonser, Humber and Jones (assuming the Twins go with a 7-man bullpen). One of those guys, and the negative value he brings with him, will never throw a pitch for the Twins in 2008, and those innings will instead be taken by someone better.
As the spring training competition unfolds, PECOTA will update its projections, and I bet the Twins' expected win total will improve as things progress.
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Twins Sign Somebody!
Namely reliever Luis Ayala, to a 1-year, $1.3 million contract.
Having just done a post analyzing Matt Guerrier's horrible 2008, I'm struck by how similar Ayala's stats are. Like Guerrier, Ayala doesn't have big strikeout credentials (5.83 K/9 for his career), yet neither of them had had a bad season until last year. Ayala's K/BB rate is just about 3/1, so he fits in with the Twins' pitching model. But, as with Guerrier, he was hurt last year by an unusually high BABIP and BB/9. And, as with Guerrier, it's reasonable to expect those numbers to swing back toward his solid career averages.
Not a bad pickup, although I'm not sure how useful it will prove to be having 2 Guerriers in the bullpen. Sadly, this would appear to dash my hopes that the Twins would re-sign Dennys Reyes, thereby freeing up Craig Breslow and Jose Mijares to be setup men and not just LOOGYs. Oh, well. At least we can't say the Twins didn't sign any free agents this offseason.
Having just done a post analyzing Matt Guerrier's horrible 2008, I'm struck by how similar Ayala's stats are. Like Guerrier, Ayala doesn't have big strikeout credentials (5.83 K/9 for his career), yet neither of them had had a bad season until last year. Ayala's K/BB rate is just about 3/1, so he fits in with the Twins' pitching model. But, as with Guerrier, he was hurt last year by an unusually high BABIP and BB/9. And, as with Guerrier, it's reasonable to expect those numbers to swing back toward his solid career averages.
Not a bad pickup, although I'm not sure how useful it will prove to be having 2 Guerriers in the bullpen. Sadly, this would appear to dash my hopes that the Twins would re-sign Dennys Reyes, thereby freeing up Craig Breslow and Jose Mijares to be setup men and not just LOOGYs. Oh, well. At least we can't say the Twins didn't sign any free agents this offseason.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Guerrier Battles On
Yesterday, the Twins announced that they had come to terms with reliever Matt Guerrier on a 1-year, $1.475 million contract for 2009, the mid-point between their respective arbitration figures. Must be nice to get a 50% raise following your worst-ever year on the job. However, the good things in Guerrier's recent past suggest that he'll be well worth the investment.
The main theory behind why Guerrier was suddenly so bad at the end of last season has to with his overuse after Pat Neshek was hurt in early May. There is some truth in that, but I would argue that Guerrier's overuse had as much to do with him as his manager, and that there was nothing sudden about his poor performance in August.
First off, the usage. While Guerrier was called upon to pitch in numerous high-leverage situations last year, it wasn't the first time he'd been asked to do that. In 2007, he set career highs in appearances (73) and IP (88.0), along with his best ever K/9 and BB/9. That strong performance earned him a promotion from long-relief to the 7th inning role by mid-season. After Neshek's innings were limited over the final 2 months of that season, Guerrier assumed the role of primary setup man. While his numbers over those last 2 months declined as well - he allowed 6 of his 9 HR and 11 of his 23 ER in August and September - the decline was back toward his career norms, with a 3.58 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. That still left him with a season ERA of 2.35 and WHIP of 1.05, thanks to the improved K/BB numbers and an abnormally low .271 BABIP. That was not likely to be repeated in 2008, and it sure wasn't.
Guerrier was typically used 12-13 times a month in 2007, and that trend continued in 2008 - the only time he exceeded that was with the 15 appearances he made in May, but 3 of those were only to face 1 batter - something he did only once at any other time in the season. So, while he was certainly busy in 2008 (among the top 20 relievers in MLB in G and IP), he wasn't much more so than he was in 2007 when he was superb. In fact, the 344 batters Guerrier faced in 2008 were 7 fewer than he faced the previous year.
By the beginning of August last year, just before things went to crap for him, Guerrier had made 51 appearances (4 more than 2007) but had thrown 57.1 IP (4 fewer than 2007). The trouble was inefficiency: he needed 924 pitches to complete those 57.1 IP, where he'd only needed 854 pitches to get through his first 61.1 IP in 2007. Over the course of the season, Guerrier threw about 2 more pitches per inning than he had in 2005 & 2006, and 2.6 more pitches per inning than in his stellar 2007. And those 2 extra pitches were almost always balls.
I looked back over my archives to see if I could find any references to support my impression that Guerrier had been wild from the get-go last year. Sure enough, from the first week of the season I was mentioning that he needed to start throwing more strikes or he was going to get hurt. His career K/BB ratio had been a little better than 2/1 entering the season, but other than July, he never came close to that. 9 of his BB were intentional, but a lot of those were the result of trouble he'd gotten himself into. Throw in the inevitable rise in BABIP (up to .331) and you've got yourself a ton of baserunners.
So what happened in the last 2 months? Well, in 2007, Guerrier gave up 6 of his 9 HR, 11 of his 23 ER and 6 of his 21 BB after he'd reached the 900 pitch mark for the season. Last year he arrived at 900 pitches on July 29, and from there his ERA ballooned from 3.23 to its final mark of 5.19. 7 of his 12 HR and 24 of his 44 ER allowed came after that point, and his K/BB ratio was 15/14. Surely, there was some physical fatigue. There was probably also some mental fatigue from having to constantly pitch from behind in the count to escape jams in high-pressure situations. And I imagine scouting reports were adjusted, preparing opposing hitters to take a few pitches and work the count rather than try to hit the first strike they saw. Eventually, Guerrier's spiral must have fed itself: I knew he was going to get torched every time he went out there, and he probably knew it, too.
Tired arm, tired mind, patient hitters, timid pitching. A perfect storm of negative factors - some of his own making - that led to disastrous results. The Twins went 6-19 in games in which Guerrier allowed a run, including 3-10 over the final 2 months of the season. Needless to say, had he been the pitcher he was from 2005-2007, the Twins would have won the division.
Luckily, things are apt to be much better for Guerrier in 2009. First of all, his BABIP will probably swing back towards where it was after 2006 (.314). That will be especially likely if he regains the strike-throwing form he had prior to 2008 - something which is very much within his control. And the Twins' professed interest in acquiring setup help this offseason implies that Guerrier is no longer expected to fill that role. That should enable him to be used less often and in lower-pressure situations. Given all that, there's reason to expect that Guerrier will once again be a reliable member of the bullpen in 2009.
The main theory behind why Guerrier was suddenly so bad at the end of last season has to with his overuse after Pat Neshek was hurt in early May. There is some truth in that, but I would argue that Guerrier's overuse had as much to do with him as his manager, and that there was nothing sudden about his poor performance in August.
First off, the usage. While Guerrier was called upon to pitch in numerous high-leverage situations last year, it wasn't the first time he'd been asked to do that. In 2007, he set career highs in appearances (73) and IP (88.0), along with his best ever K/9 and BB/9. That strong performance earned him a promotion from long-relief to the 7th inning role by mid-season. After Neshek's innings were limited over the final 2 months of that season, Guerrier assumed the role of primary setup man. While his numbers over those last 2 months declined as well - he allowed 6 of his 9 HR and 11 of his 23 ER in August and September - the decline was back toward his career norms, with a 3.58 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. That still left him with a season ERA of 2.35 and WHIP of 1.05, thanks to the improved K/BB numbers and an abnormally low .271 BABIP. That was not likely to be repeated in 2008, and it sure wasn't.
Guerrier was typically used 12-13 times a month in 2007, and that trend continued in 2008 - the only time he exceeded that was with the 15 appearances he made in May, but 3 of those were only to face 1 batter - something he did only once at any other time in the season. So, while he was certainly busy in 2008 (among the top 20 relievers in MLB in G and IP), he wasn't much more so than he was in 2007 when he was superb. In fact, the 344 batters Guerrier faced in 2008 were 7 fewer than he faced the previous year.
By the beginning of August last year, just before things went to crap for him, Guerrier had made 51 appearances (4 more than 2007) but had thrown 57.1 IP (4 fewer than 2007). The trouble was inefficiency: he needed 924 pitches to complete those 57.1 IP, where he'd only needed 854 pitches to get through his first 61.1 IP in 2007. Over the course of the season, Guerrier threw about 2 more pitches per inning than he had in 2005 & 2006, and 2.6 more pitches per inning than in his stellar 2007. And those 2 extra pitches were almost always balls.
I looked back over my archives to see if I could find any references to support my impression that Guerrier had been wild from the get-go last year. Sure enough, from the first week of the season I was mentioning that he needed to start throwing more strikes or he was going to get hurt. His career K/BB ratio had been a little better than 2/1 entering the season, but other than July, he never came close to that. 9 of his BB were intentional, but a lot of those were the result of trouble he'd gotten himself into. Throw in the inevitable rise in BABIP (up to .331) and you've got yourself a ton of baserunners.
So what happened in the last 2 months? Well, in 2007, Guerrier gave up 6 of his 9 HR, 11 of his 23 ER and 6 of his 21 BB after he'd reached the 900 pitch mark for the season. Last year he arrived at 900 pitches on July 29, and from there his ERA ballooned from 3.23 to its final mark of 5.19. 7 of his 12 HR and 24 of his 44 ER allowed came after that point, and his K/BB ratio was 15/14. Surely, there was some physical fatigue. There was probably also some mental fatigue from having to constantly pitch from behind in the count to escape jams in high-pressure situations. And I imagine scouting reports were adjusted, preparing opposing hitters to take a few pitches and work the count rather than try to hit the first strike they saw. Eventually, Guerrier's spiral must have fed itself: I knew he was going to get torched every time he went out there, and he probably knew it, too.
Tired arm, tired mind, patient hitters, timid pitching. A perfect storm of negative factors - some of his own making - that led to disastrous results. The Twins went 6-19 in games in which Guerrier allowed a run, including 3-10 over the final 2 months of the season. Needless to say, had he been the pitcher he was from 2005-2007, the Twins would have won the division.
Luckily, things are apt to be much better for Guerrier in 2009. First of all, his BABIP will probably swing back towards where it was after 2006 (.314). That will be especially likely if he regains the strike-throwing form he had prior to 2008 - something which is very much within his control. And the Twins' professed interest in acquiring setup help this offseason implies that Guerrier is no longer expected to fill that role. That should enable him to be used less often and in lower-pressure situations. Given all that, there's reason to expect that Guerrier will once again be a reliable member of the bullpen in 2009.
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