For about 5 years I worked as an audio engineer for Marketplace Money. It's a personal finance show, and while I was recording, editing and mixing, I couldn't help learning a few things about economics and investing. I've been a bit surprised to find how well many of those principles translate to the baseball world (or should I call it a sector?). I made one of the most basic of those tenets - Buy Low, Sell High - one of the fundamental guidelines of my offseason blueprint for the Twins. The final step in my plans involves another: a prudent investor should periodically rebalance their portfolio.
Basically, you set out with an asset allocation that suits your comfort level, say, 20% bonds, 80% stocks, and, of those, maybe 85% domestic and 15% international companies, 35% big, 20% small, 25% energy, 20% tech, whatever. You buy your stocks, and you hold them. At the end of some pre-determined interval, at least once a year, you check how their values have changed. For example, the gains the stock market has experienced this year might mean that your stocks are now worth 86% of all your investments instead of 80%. So, you sell enough stock and buy enough bonds that your stocks get back to 80%. You not only maintain the diversity you're comfortable with, you also most likely sell investments for a higher price than when you bought them - you're making money.
This is a great thing for a baseball team to do each offseason with the talent in its system. I want an organization with as much total talent as possible, but that talent exists to provide wins to the major league team. The guys at the upper levels who may be called upon to fill in for injured players need to be replacement level or better. Each position should be represented by either a quality major leaguer under contract/team control for years to come, or by a high-ceiling prospect, or both (should the projected arrival time of the prospect coincide with the impending free agency of the starter). Where this is not the case, we should make an effort to trade from our surplus in order to alleviate our deficiencies. Then we can go into 2010 with an organization that can be an asset to the Twins' campaign.
The Upper Levels
As I pointed out a few weeks ago, the system did not have quality depth at AAA last season, at least not in time to make an impact. When Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Rule 5 pickup Jason Jones failed to distinguish themselves, the Twins were forced to rush Anthony Swarzak, Jeff Manship and Armando Gabino into the rotation before any of them had had adequate time to establish themselves in the International League. Journeymen Sean Henn and Bobby Keppel were having good springs for Rochester, but were too old to be considered decent prospects, and didn't help very much once they made the show. Alexi Casilla, Jason Pridie and Dustin Martin all disappointed.
The prognosis is much better for 2010, thanks to the graduation of a slew of Rock Cats. New Britain enjoyed strong performances at nearly every position and throughout the bullpen. Adding those folks to the nucleus at Rochester should provide for a pretty strong team, particularly if we can hang on to all of them through the Rule 5 Draft and free agency. Highly-rated prospects Wilson Ramos (C) and Danny Valencia (3B) will be good call-up candidates, and continued adjustments from strong finishers Trevor Plouffe, David Winfree and Brock Peterson could make them viable as well. The only major holes I see are the lack of an ace-caliber SP and an outstanding LHP in the 'pen. New Britain should begin the season with more or less the same group of Fort Myers players that paced the Florida State League last season. The Rock Cats should be pretty good throughout the roster, particularly if Deibinson Romero can have a bounce-back season.
Redundancies
Are there parts of the system in which we're going to have trouble finding enough innings or ABs for somebody? Do certain players at more or less the same level have such similar skill sets/projections that they are essentially interchangeable? Where the answer is "yes," we've got some moves to make. (Exception - I'm not sure you can ever have too many live arms in the bullpen.) Here are some possibilities:
The Prototypical Twins Pitcher
You know the traits: works fast, efficient, throws strikes, pitches to contact. That tends to result in very good BB/9 and rather unimpressive K/9 and HR/9. Pitchers like that project to be back-end starters. And we've got a slew of them: after the big-league #3-#5 of Kevin Slowey (1.5 HR/9, 1.4 BB/9, 6.9 K/9), Nick Blackburn (1.1 HR/9, 1.8 BB/9, 4.4 K/9) and Brian Duensing, (0.8 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9, 6.4 K/9), there's:
Glen Perkins (1.3, 2.4, 4.6)
Anthony Swarzak (0.9, 2.8, 6.2 - AA and up)
Jeff Manship (0.4, 2.4, 7.3)
Jason Jones (0.9, 2.1, 5.3)
Ryan Mullins (0.8, 2.7, 7.7)
Matt Fox (0.8, 2.9, 7.8)
These are just the guys I project to be ready for AAA next spring. Kevin Mulvey was in this scrum until he was traded for Jon Rauch late in the season. As it is, the Red Wings are set up to field a rotation of mid-to-back-end starters and still have one left over. I get rid of Jones any way I can - at 27, he's no longer a prospect. Perkins is in a bit of hot water now, but if we dealt him, we'd be selling low. I'm more inclined to deal Duensing, whose stellar stretch run with the Twins has his stock as high as it will ever be (given enough innings, I don't think he'll be a lot better than Perkins). Swarzak has tailed off a lot since reaching AA, but as long as he keeps getting high rankings from Baseball America, he's got trade value. Manship does a great job of keeping it in the yard - let's stick with that. Mullins took a huge step forward in his second year at New Britain, dramatically increasing his K while slashing his HR and BB allowed. Fox has a high enough K rate to stay in the mix.
Summary: Put Manship, Mullins and Fox in the Rochester rotation. Look to trade Swarzak, Duensing and Jones. Keep Perkins around until he can sort himself out and raise his value.
Middle Men
In my plan, the Twins' starting MI are JJ Hardy and Nick Punto. Behind them are Alexi Casilla and Swiss-Army Knife Matt Tolbert, and then these gentlemen (Minor League Numbers) - assuming they all survive the Rule 5 Draft:
Brendan Harris (.294/.365/.458, 43/68 SB)
Trevor Plouffe (.256/.318/.385, 38/64 SB)
Steven Tolleson (.276/.368/.400, 67/102 SB)
Brian Dinkelman (.281/.365/.424, 37/50 SB)
Steve Singleton (.289/.334/.421, 22/42 SB)
2 things to understand about this list:
#1. Harris played all his AAA ball in the hitter-friendly PCL, while the others have played in the pitcher-friendly IL, and
#2. Plouffe has always been young for his leagues, while the rest of these guys have been on the older side.
#2, in addition to the strong 2nd half I mentioned above are enough to keep me high on Plouffe. Dinkelman, though a little old for a prospect at 26, had a fantastic year at AA and is the only credible base-stealer on this list - he's my Red Wings starter in April. Singleton has only had half a season at AA and has no patience whatsoever - he's staying in New Britain. Tolleson and Harris are pretty similar - they're both RH batters with a little gap power and so-so gloves and speed. But Tolleson has a much better eye, is three years younger, and works for the league minimum. I don't need Harris on the Twins' bench: the IF I've put together has pretty good power (except Punto) but really needs speed and OBP in a pinch. Casilla and Tolbert are my backups to start, and Tolleson is on my short list if somebody gets hurt.
Last season, the Twins' top 2 prospects, according to BA, were Aaron Hicks and Ben Revere, both CF. Revere did nothing to hurt his prospect status in the FSL, finishing 1st in H, 2nd in BA, 3rd in SB and 4th in OBP. He's a slappy LH batter/thrower with a disappointing SB% and defensive rating for his speed, and almost no power to go with his stupendous OBP. Here's the thing - the Twins already have one of those: Denard Span. He's just entering his peak years and will be under team control until 2014. Do we need both of them in the lineup when Revere is ready for the Show in 2012? Is Revere, at 5'9" and 166 lbs. ever going to develop the power that Span has at 6'1"/180? As good a prospect as he is, is Revere really that valuable to the Twins? Is he ever going to be worth a lot more than he is right now?
My answer to all those questions is: I doubt it. Revere is the premium prospect that we can offer in exchange for a similarly-rated talent at a position of need in the organization without hurting our long-term plans.
Despite an injury-shortened season at AA, Wilson Ramos is raising his stock thanks to good numbers when he was on the field (.317/.341/.454) and a ludicrous performance so far in winter ball (.374/.431/.642), all while rating as a plus defensive C. He's a RH batter, so the possibility of having him share duties with Joe Mauer beginning in 2011 is most appealing: Mauer could DH more without us sacrificing defense, thus saving wear and tear on our franchise player (who will no doubt be guaranteed a lot of money for a verrrrry long time). However, that scenario is a luxury - Jose Morales can be an above-average hitter on the few days Mauer needs a rest. So, assuming Mauer is locked up long-term, I would consider trade offers for Ramos - but I'd have to be blown away.
Summary: It's Dinkelman, Tolleson and Plouffe at Rochester, Singleton at New Britain. Revere is a premium trade piece, as is Ramos (if I feel like it). Harris is a throw-in.
Corners
A month ago this area was a bit more crowded, but the moves we've made so far this offseason have clarified matters a bit. The Gomez/Hardy trade likely puts Jason Pridie on the Twins' bench, moving Dustin Martin to CF at AAA. Rene Tosoni can play all three OF spots, David Winfree (assuming he returns) will be in RF, and I would guess that Luke Hughes will play a lot in LF. Hughes has been passed on the depth chart by Valencia, but after Romero's struggles in Fort Myers, I'm not quite ready to deal Hughes away, no matter how poor his 3B defense. With Justin Huber departing for Japan, there shouldn't be any trouble splitting 1B/DH time at Rochester between Brock Peterson and Erik Lis, with Hughes getting some PA there as well. At AA, those positions will be filled by Whitney Robbins and Chris Parmelee.
So the list of upper-level guys I'd consider moving includes Swarzak, Duensing, Jones, Harris, Revere and maaaybe Ramos. I want to wait to see how some outside analysts rank the Twins' system before I propose any specific players I'd want to get for them.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Monday, November 23, 2009
The Most Valuable Player
Today, Joe Mauer won the AL MVP award, having led the league in BA, OBP and SLG%. He was the first player to do that since George Brett in 1980. The vote was nearly unanimous.
Up to this point, talks between Mauer and the Twins about a contract extension beyond the 2010 season have been quiet. This is probably because, if the Twins have been bothering to call, Ron Shapiro has most likely been letting it go to voice mail. Why even start negotiating before your client earns the most prestigious individual award in the game? Now they have all the leverage: Mauer has added power to his league-leading hitting, he's earned a 2nd consecutive Gold Glove and Silver Slugger, he'll be in his peak if he hits the Free Agent market at age 28 in 2011, and the large market teams should all be in the market for a catcher at that time. Plus, with a publicly funded new stadium set to open in the spring, the fans won't stand for seeing their native superstar dealt or lost because of payroll concerns. So, sure, Mauer will sign with the Twins, but it will be on his terms, for the years and dollars that make him comfortable.
That Bill Smith and the Twins could have let it get to this point is a staggering failure of planning and risk management, not to mention a disturbing inability to learn from the recent past. It was only 2 years ago, after all, that the Twins were forced to unload the game's best pitcher, Johan Santana, to the lowest bidder - a situation brought about by Santana's unwillingness to settle for a home-town discount when somebody from the East was sure to give him more dollars and years than the Twins could comfortably guarantee. They locked up former MVP Justin Morneau that spring, ensuring that he'd be a Twin throughout his peak years.
Was there any question that they'd want Mauer around for those years as well? With him coming off of 2 batting titles in 3 years, there shouldn't have been. Was there some reason to think that he'd sign for less money at some point in the future? Letting him play another season only made it more likely that he'd pile up great numbers and increase his value. It wasn't as though the Twins were pushing the limits of their payroll going into 2009, what were they saving the money for? They just signed Morneau for 6 years, why not extend Mauer for 4 and essentially match that deal? As of a year ago, there were still a lot of people who valued Morneau more highly (as evidenced by his #2 MVP finish to Mauer's #4). Offering Mauer a deal equivalent to that of his good buddy would have looked pretty equitable.
Had Mauer had a normal offseason, he might have tried to hold out for more. But when he was slow to recover from his back trouble, and spring training started to slip away with no timetable for his return, he would have been in no position to turn down a contract guaranteeing him an 8-figure salary through 2014. 2009 was going to be the 3rd time in 6 seasons that he'd miss considerable playing time to injury, and he plays the most physically demanding position on the field. Had he been offered a 4-year, $56M extension with a $4M signing bonus last February, I can't imagine him passing on it.
That deal, had it been offered, would have been ideal for the Twins. Catchers have been known to see a drop-off in productivity shortly after they turn 30. Signing Mauer through 2014 gets him through his age 31 season - re-evaluate his condition from there and see if he's really going to be able to stick behind the dish. Now, they'll probably have to sign him through at least 2017, when he'll be 34. Chances are much better that he won't be worth the price tag by then. At $14M/year, Mauer is a bargain, allowing significant money to be allocated to other parts of the team and organization. Now, he's probably going to cost $20M/year or more, and for more years. That extra $6M could be the difference between a good player and a replacement player, or a good player and a great player. It could go toward signing top-flight prospects like Max Kepler and Miguel Angel Sano. Now, it's gonna go to Joe Mauer, and that's all.
We won't know until the deal is completed how much Mauer's extension will cost the Twins. But as far as I'm concerned, that amount minus $60M is the price they'll pay for failing to offer the extension a year ago. Maybe this time the lesson will sink in.
Up to this point, talks between Mauer and the Twins about a contract extension beyond the 2010 season have been quiet. This is probably because, if the Twins have been bothering to call, Ron Shapiro has most likely been letting it go to voice mail. Why even start negotiating before your client earns the most prestigious individual award in the game? Now they have all the leverage: Mauer has added power to his league-leading hitting, he's earned a 2nd consecutive Gold Glove and Silver Slugger, he'll be in his peak if he hits the Free Agent market at age 28 in 2011, and the large market teams should all be in the market for a catcher at that time. Plus, with a publicly funded new stadium set to open in the spring, the fans won't stand for seeing their native superstar dealt or lost because of payroll concerns. So, sure, Mauer will sign with the Twins, but it will be on his terms, for the years and dollars that make him comfortable.
That Bill Smith and the Twins could have let it get to this point is a staggering failure of planning and risk management, not to mention a disturbing inability to learn from the recent past. It was only 2 years ago, after all, that the Twins were forced to unload the game's best pitcher, Johan Santana, to the lowest bidder - a situation brought about by Santana's unwillingness to settle for a home-town discount when somebody from the East was sure to give him more dollars and years than the Twins could comfortably guarantee. They locked up former MVP Justin Morneau that spring, ensuring that he'd be a Twin throughout his peak years.
Was there any question that they'd want Mauer around for those years as well? With him coming off of 2 batting titles in 3 years, there shouldn't have been. Was there some reason to think that he'd sign for less money at some point in the future? Letting him play another season only made it more likely that he'd pile up great numbers and increase his value. It wasn't as though the Twins were pushing the limits of their payroll going into 2009, what were they saving the money for? They just signed Morneau for 6 years, why not extend Mauer for 4 and essentially match that deal? As of a year ago, there were still a lot of people who valued Morneau more highly (as evidenced by his #2 MVP finish to Mauer's #4). Offering Mauer a deal equivalent to that of his good buddy would have looked pretty equitable.
Had Mauer had a normal offseason, he might have tried to hold out for more. But when he was slow to recover from his back trouble, and spring training started to slip away with no timetable for his return, he would have been in no position to turn down a contract guaranteeing him an 8-figure salary through 2014. 2009 was going to be the 3rd time in 6 seasons that he'd miss considerable playing time to injury, and he plays the most physically demanding position on the field. Had he been offered a 4-year, $56M extension with a $4M signing bonus last February, I can't imagine him passing on it.
That deal, had it been offered, would have been ideal for the Twins. Catchers have been known to see a drop-off in productivity shortly after they turn 30. Signing Mauer through 2014 gets him through his age 31 season - re-evaluate his condition from there and see if he's really going to be able to stick behind the dish. Now, they'll probably have to sign him through at least 2017, when he'll be 34. Chances are much better that he won't be worth the price tag by then. At $14M/year, Mauer is a bargain, allowing significant money to be allocated to other parts of the team and organization. Now, he's probably going to cost $20M/year or more, and for more years. That extra $6M could be the difference between a good player and a replacement player, or a good player and a great player. It could go toward signing top-flight prospects like Max Kepler and Miguel Angel Sano. Now, it's gonna go to Joe Mauer, and that's all.
We won't know until the deal is completed how much Mauer's extension will cost the Twins. But as far as I'm concerned, that amount minus $60M is the price they'll pay for failing to offer the extension a year ago. Maybe this time the lesson will sink in.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Offseason Blueprint (cont.)
Last time I was imagining what moves I'd make were I in Bill Smith's shoes. I started with a list of organizational principles:
1. Develop from within
2. Do the little things right
3. Buy low, sell high
4. Accumulate depth at all positions at the upper levels
then gave the first 5 steps of my offseason plan:
1. Sign Joe Mauer to an extension at 6 years/$120 million
2. Decline Michael Cuddyer's 2011 option
3. Renew Joe Crede's contract
4. Let the other free agents walk
5. Offer contracts to all arbitration-eligible players
Picking up where I left off...
6. Settle the 40-man roster
There's already been a lot of action on this front in the real world. Carlos Gomez is off, JJ Hardy is on. The free agents are off. Boof Bonser, Pat Neshek and Kevin Slowey came off the 60-day DL and are back on the 40-man. Brian Buscher, Justin Huber and Armando Gabino were removed, and Gabino was claimed off waivers by the Orioles. Juan Morillo has been added, but David Winfree has not, enabling him to become a minor league free agent.
I love Gomez for Hardy straight up, so I'm cool with that move. The FA/60-day DL stuff was automatic. As for the other moves so far, I would have also removed Huber while adding Winfree, since I see Winfree as the most capable corner OF replacement should something happen to Cuddyer or Delmon Young. Because Smith picked up Cuddyer's option, I can understand leaving Winfree off the roster - he's blocked at both positions - but he's still a more polished call-up option than some of the other guys who will be at Rochester this spring. I was inclined to hang on to Gabino and Buscher; Gabino looks like a decent swing man and Buscher's discerning eye at the plate makes him a pretty useful PH, even when he's got a low average and shows zero power like he did in 2009. If I only had a 4-man bench, he probably doesn't make the cut, but if we go with 11 pitchers (always my preference), he'd be in the running for that last spot.
The other guys I'd clear off would be Deibinson Romero, Drew Butera, and Bobby Keppel. Romero had an unimpressive season at Fort Myers, so I doubt there's much interest from other clubs in snatching him. 2 catchers would have to get hurt before we'd need Butera - I'll worry about adding a 4th C to the 40-man only if that comes to pass. With Bonser and Neshek back from their injuries, I don't see a spot for Keppel except as AAA filler. That's because I want to make room for higher-upside additions, like Alex Burnett and Rob Delaney. I give Huber's slot to Brock Peterson, a better fit to back up Morneau because he's a RH hitter. I expect Danny Valencia to make his MLB debut when Crede gets hurt or when the rosters expand in September, whichever comes first - he gets Romero's spot (and Crede is back on). The final spot goes to Brian Dinkelman, a more advanced prospect than Steve Singleton, for this year at least.
My 40-man has 3 C, 6 OF, 5 CI, 5 MI, 3 utility IF, 8 SP and 10 RP (and at least one of the LHP I've listed as a starter - Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins or Brian Duensing - will end up in the bullpen). It'd be nice to have one more OF, but otherwise I think it's a good balance.
7. Acquire JJ Hardy to be the starting SS
This has happened, and for less than I thought it would take. I was going to start the process by offering Duensing, who for his career hasn't been any more impressive than Glen Perkins, but whose stock will probably never be higher after the way he finished the season in the Twins' rotation. And the Brewers need pitching. Instead, they opted for Gomez' defensive ability and tools. So we get an everyday SS who rates as one of the better defenders at the position in the majors, and who has shown as recently as 2008 the ability to hit 25 HR and 30 2B in a season. Hardy is entering his peak years, and he's still under team control through 2011. And all we had to give up was a bench OF. Nice.
8. Acquire an ace
Since Santana was traded, the Twins haven't really had a bona fide ace - someone who consistently wipes out opposing hitters while sparing the bullpen and giving the team a strong chance of winning every five days. Baker is close, but I think he matches up better with other #2 starters. Kevin Slowey, when healthy, is a rock-solid #3, and Nick Blackburn has been a solid #4 or very good #5. I'm going to give Liriano a spot in the rotation next spring - he had a bit of bad luck on balls in play, and mostly needs to make a mechanical adjustment when he pitches from the stretch. If those two things get back to normal, I think he's a decent back-end starter. If he adds command of his fastball to the equation, he's back to the front-end. But those are big "ifs."
There is no true ace on the roster, nor is there one anywhere in sight in the system. We've got to go get somebody to fill this void. Preferably someone we can get under contract for at least the next 3 seasons. Unfortunately, none of the guys with Ace stuff in this year's FA pool have reliably made 33-34 starts over the past few seasons. The best option is John Lackey, who is expected to receive a contract similar to AJ Burnett's (5 years/$82 M). With escalating salaries from other core Twins players over the next few seasons, I'm not sure I want to go that far, even if I thought we could outbid the big markets for Lackey. And we want to always buy low, anyway.
So, from the available FA, my first choice would be Rich Harden. He has scintillating stuff, with a 9.4 K/9 for his career. Unfortunately, he's been very injury-prone, exceeding 30 GS and 150 IP just once in his career, though he was able to make 25+ starts in each of the last two years. The other trouble with him is that he's inefficient: he's averaged better than 6 IP/GS only twice in his career, and not since 2005. However, he's only about to turn 28, so he should still have some good years ahead of him if he can stay healthy. As far as bang for the buck goes, he looks like the best option, particularly since the bullpen figures to be pretty deep in 2010 and should be better able to absorb some short starts.
I'd offer Harden a contract for 2010 similar to what Pavano got in 2009, though, since Harden has made 25 starts in each of the past 2 years, and his stuff is so fantastic, the base is going to have to be a lot higher than Pavano's. I'd propose a $6 M guaranteed base salary. Because I want to encourage better efficiency from Harden, the escalators are based on IP rather than GS: I'd raise him $0.5 M for every 10 IP beginning with 140, so that the overall value of the contract would be $9.5 M if he reaches 200 IP. Furthermore, it would have a guaranteed $12 M option for 2011 that would vest once he reached 200 IP. Similarly, he'd get vesting options for $13.5 M for 2012 and $15 M for 2013 at the 200 IP mark. Plus, it would have bonuses for All-Star appearances, post-season success, and top-5 Cy Young finishes.
Under those terms, if Harden can lower his pitches/IP and keep himself healthy, he can effectively make this into a 4 year, $50 M contract - far more than anyone is likely to guarantee him based on his career so far. My 2nd choice for this sort of deal would be Erik Bedard. My 3rd choice would be Ben Sheets.
Trading is an option, too, but aces cost a lot. Getting a Josh Johnson would likely have to be something similar to the Dan Haren deal 2 years ago. The D-Backs had to give up their #1, #3, #7 and #8 BA-rated prospects, plus Greg Smith and Dana Eveland in order to acquire Haren and minor-league pitcher Connor Robertson. That would mean the Twins would have to give up something like Aaron Hicks, Wilson Ramos, Anthony Swarzak, Carlos Gutierrez, Glen Perkins and Mike McCardell for Johnson and a Philip Humber-type pitcher (good pedigree, but starting to run out of time as a prospect).
The other possibility would be for a shorter-term but even more impactful ace, like Roy Halladay. He's got just one year left on his contract at $15.75M. The Blue Jays are keen to dump that salary, but it will take an offer somewhere between the C.C. Sabathia deal with the Brewers (#1 prospect + 3 others) and the Cliff Lee (#2, #3, #4, #10)/Jake Peavy (#2, #3 + 2 others) deals. Maybe Ben Revere, Ramos, Swarzak and Duensing. It's not a horrible prospect, and we'd get 2 high draft picks back in 2011, but then we're still looking for an ace again this time next year. That may be the situation should Harden or whoever succumb to injuries once again. But I'd rather take the high-reward play and save my surplus prospects for other purposes.
9. Clarify the OF situation
Before the Hardy trade, I was going to prefer that the Twins stick with Gomez, hoping that he'd develop enough offense to be respectable, then give the Twins' pitchers 2 CF in their OF. That would mean trading Young somewhere, for whatever we could get. But with Gomez heading for the land of cheese, the OF situation I've been advocating for awhile can come to be. That is, had the Twins opted to give Gomez some regular AB at AAA, Jason Pridie could have been recalled to fill precisely the role that Gomez had at the end of the season: late-inning defensive upgrade for Kubel or Young in games the Twins are leading, PR in situations where the Twins need a run to tie or take the lead. Pridie isn't as exceptional as Gomez in those regards, but he has plus speed and OF defense and is a high-percentage base stealer. And like Gomez, he's a bit of a hacker with a lousy OBP. However, his left-handedness will have some extra utility on the days Cuddyer and Young get a rest - make sure the opposing starter is a RHP, and Pridie shouldn't be totally useless hitting out of the #8 or #9 spots.
Overall, exchanging Orlando Cabrera and Gomez for Hardy and Pridie should be a big net gain for the Twins.
10. Make trades to balance the system
This is something that will be ongoing from now to Opening Day next April. I'll get into it another day...
1. Develop from within
2. Do the little things right
3. Buy low, sell high
4. Accumulate depth at all positions at the upper levels
then gave the first 5 steps of my offseason plan:
1. Sign Joe Mauer to an extension at 6 years/$120 million
2. Decline Michael Cuddyer's 2011 option
3. Renew Joe Crede's contract
4. Let the other free agents walk
5. Offer contracts to all arbitration-eligible players
Picking up where I left off...
6. Settle the 40-man roster
There's already been a lot of action on this front in the real world. Carlos Gomez is off, JJ Hardy is on. The free agents are off. Boof Bonser, Pat Neshek and Kevin Slowey came off the 60-day DL and are back on the 40-man. Brian Buscher, Justin Huber and Armando Gabino were removed, and Gabino was claimed off waivers by the Orioles. Juan Morillo has been added, but David Winfree has not, enabling him to become a minor league free agent.
I love Gomez for Hardy straight up, so I'm cool with that move. The FA/60-day DL stuff was automatic. As for the other moves so far, I would have also removed Huber while adding Winfree, since I see Winfree as the most capable corner OF replacement should something happen to Cuddyer or Delmon Young. Because Smith picked up Cuddyer's option, I can understand leaving Winfree off the roster - he's blocked at both positions - but he's still a more polished call-up option than some of the other guys who will be at Rochester this spring. I was inclined to hang on to Gabino and Buscher; Gabino looks like a decent swing man and Buscher's discerning eye at the plate makes him a pretty useful PH, even when he's got a low average and shows zero power like he did in 2009. If I only had a 4-man bench, he probably doesn't make the cut, but if we go with 11 pitchers (always my preference), he'd be in the running for that last spot.
The other guys I'd clear off would be Deibinson Romero, Drew Butera, and Bobby Keppel. Romero had an unimpressive season at Fort Myers, so I doubt there's much interest from other clubs in snatching him. 2 catchers would have to get hurt before we'd need Butera - I'll worry about adding a 4th C to the 40-man only if that comes to pass. With Bonser and Neshek back from their injuries, I don't see a spot for Keppel except as AAA filler. That's because I want to make room for higher-upside additions, like Alex Burnett and Rob Delaney. I give Huber's slot to Brock Peterson, a better fit to back up Morneau because he's a RH hitter. I expect Danny Valencia to make his MLB debut when Crede gets hurt or when the rosters expand in September, whichever comes first - he gets Romero's spot (and Crede is back on). The final spot goes to Brian Dinkelman, a more advanced prospect than Steve Singleton, for this year at least.
My 40-man has 3 C, 6 OF, 5 CI, 5 MI, 3 utility IF, 8 SP and 10 RP (and at least one of the LHP I've listed as a starter - Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins or Brian Duensing - will end up in the bullpen). It'd be nice to have one more OF, but otherwise I think it's a good balance.
7. Acquire JJ Hardy to be the starting SS
This has happened, and for less than I thought it would take. I was going to start the process by offering Duensing, who for his career hasn't been any more impressive than Glen Perkins, but whose stock will probably never be higher after the way he finished the season in the Twins' rotation. And the Brewers need pitching. Instead, they opted for Gomez' defensive ability and tools. So we get an everyday SS who rates as one of the better defenders at the position in the majors, and who has shown as recently as 2008 the ability to hit 25 HR and 30 2B in a season. Hardy is entering his peak years, and he's still under team control through 2011. And all we had to give up was a bench OF. Nice.
8. Acquire an ace
Since Santana was traded, the Twins haven't really had a bona fide ace - someone who consistently wipes out opposing hitters while sparing the bullpen and giving the team a strong chance of winning every five days. Baker is close, but I think he matches up better with other #2 starters. Kevin Slowey, when healthy, is a rock-solid #3, and Nick Blackburn has been a solid #4 or very good #5. I'm going to give Liriano a spot in the rotation next spring - he had a bit of bad luck on balls in play, and mostly needs to make a mechanical adjustment when he pitches from the stretch. If those two things get back to normal, I think he's a decent back-end starter. If he adds command of his fastball to the equation, he's back to the front-end. But those are big "ifs."
There is no true ace on the roster, nor is there one anywhere in sight in the system. We've got to go get somebody to fill this void. Preferably someone we can get under contract for at least the next 3 seasons. Unfortunately, none of the guys with Ace stuff in this year's FA pool have reliably made 33-34 starts over the past few seasons. The best option is John Lackey, who is expected to receive a contract similar to AJ Burnett's (5 years/$82 M). With escalating salaries from other core Twins players over the next few seasons, I'm not sure I want to go that far, even if I thought we could outbid the big markets for Lackey. And we want to always buy low, anyway.
So, from the available FA, my first choice would be Rich Harden. He has scintillating stuff, with a 9.4 K/9 for his career. Unfortunately, he's been very injury-prone, exceeding 30 GS and 150 IP just once in his career, though he was able to make 25+ starts in each of the last two years. The other trouble with him is that he's inefficient: he's averaged better than 6 IP/GS only twice in his career, and not since 2005. However, he's only about to turn 28, so he should still have some good years ahead of him if he can stay healthy. As far as bang for the buck goes, he looks like the best option, particularly since the bullpen figures to be pretty deep in 2010 and should be better able to absorb some short starts.
I'd offer Harden a contract for 2010 similar to what Pavano got in 2009, though, since Harden has made 25 starts in each of the past 2 years, and his stuff is so fantastic, the base is going to have to be a lot higher than Pavano's. I'd propose a $6 M guaranteed base salary. Because I want to encourage better efficiency from Harden, the escalators are based on IP rather than GS: I'd raise him $0.5 M for every 10 IP beginning with 140, so that the overall value of the contract would be $9.5 M if he reaches 200 IP. Furthermore, it would have a guaranteed $12 M option for 2011 that would vest once he reached 200 IP. Similarly, he'd get vesting options for $13.5 M for 2012 and $15 M for 2013 at the 200 IP mark. Plus, it would have bonuses for All-Star appearances, post-season success, and top-5 Cy Young finishes.
Under those terms, if Harden can lower his pitches/IP and keep himself healthy, he can effectively make this into a 4 year, $50 M contract - far more than anyone is likely to guarantee him based on his career so far. My 2nd choice for this sort of deal would be Erik Bedard. My 3rd choice would be Ben Sheets.
Trading is an option, too, but aces cost a lot. Getting a Josh Johnson would likely have to be something similar to the Dan Haren deal 2 years ago. The D-Backs had to give up their #1, #3, #7 and #8 BA-rated prospects, plus Greg Smith and Dana Eveland in order to acquire Haren and minor-league pitcher Connor Robertson. That would mean the Twins would have to give up something like Aaron Hicks, Wilson Ramos, Anthony Swarzak, Carlos Gutierrez, Glen Perkins and Mike McCardell for Johnson and a Philip Humber-type pitcher (good pedigree, but starting to run out of time as a prospect).
The other possibility would be for a shorter-term but even more impactful ace, like Roy Halladay. He's got just one year left on his contract at $15.75M. The Blue Jays are keen to dump that salary, but it will take an offer somewhere between the C.C. Sabathia deal with the Brewers (#1 prospect + 3 others) and the Cliff Lee (#2, #3, #4, #10)/Jake Peavy (#2, #3 + 2 others) deals. Maybe Ben Revere, Ramos, Swarzak and Duensing. It's not a horrible prospect, and we'd get 2 high draft picks back in 2011, but then we're still looking for an ace again this time next year. That may be the situation should Harden or whoever succumb to injuries once again. But I'd rather take the high-reward play and save my surplus prospects for other purposes.
9. Clarify the OF situation
Before the Hardy trade, I was going to prefer that the Twins stick with Gomez, hoping that he'd develop enough offense to be respectable, then give the Twins' pitchers 2 CF in their OF. That would mean trading Young somewhere, for whatever we could get. But with Gomez heading for the land of cheese, the OF situation I've been advocating for awhile can come to be. That is, had the Twins opted to give Gomez some regular AB at AAA, Jason Pridie could have been recalled to fill precisely the role that Gomez had at the end of the season: late-inning defensive upgrade for Kubel or Young in games the Twins are leading, PR in situations where the Twins need a run to tie or take the lead. Pridie isn't as exceptional as Gomez in those regards, but he has plus speed and OF defense and is a high-percentage base stealer. And like Gomez, he's a bit of a hacker with a lousy OBP. However, his left-handedness will have some extra utility on the days Cuddyer and Young get a rest - make sure the opposing starter is a RHP, and Pridie shouldn't be totally useless hitting out of the #8 or #9 spots.
Overall, exchanging Orlando Cabrera and Gomez for Hardy and Pridie should be a big net gain for the Twins.
10. Make trades to balance the system
This is something that will be ongoing from now to Opening Day next April. I'll get into it another day...
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Offseason Blueprint
(I'm just going to post this before something else happens. I'll fill in the blanks at the bottom in the coming days...)
Organizational Principles
1. Develop from within
The Twins have been savvy when it comes to acquiring prospects and training them to be contributors at the Major League level. Players that come up through the system have an investment in the Twins, and the fans become invested in them. Wherever feasible, positions on the 25-man roster should be filled by players who have been brought up as Twins.
2. Do the little things right
Catch the balls you're supposed to catch. Know when to take the extra base (and when not to!). Keep pressure on struggling pitchers by taking a few pitches. Make sure that, when you make an out, you've at least had a productive AB, either advancing a runner or making the opposing pitcher work. Attack the strike zone, especially against weaker hitters. Be cautious with your location, especially when facing an elite hitter with RISP late in the game.
These are the sort of things the Twins have gained a reputation for doing. If that reputation is to be deserved, any players filling the roster must be inclined to execute all the little things that make such a big difference over the course of the season.
3. Buy low, sell high
Despite promising revenue trends in recent years, the Twins are still a small-market club, and must be wise about how they spend their resources. They cannot afford to overpay for free agents (as Toronto did in recent years). Nor can they afford to throw away players whose value is temporarily low (Craig Breslow). They must instead be brutally honest about what sort of production every considered player is capable of, and then target the ones who may be undervalued at the moment for whatever reason.
4. Accumulate depth at all positions at the upper levels
Rochester was pretty thin last season in terms of MLB-ready pitching, 3B and MI prospects, and that lack of depth held the Twins back for most of the summer. The offseasons that really caught my attention last year were those of the Red Sox and Dodgers, who each made sure to pick up multiple veterans (like Takashi Saito, John Smoltz and Brad Penny) even though they had promising youngsters available to fill those roles (like Justin Masterson and Clay Buchholz). Some of those moves paid off more than others, but when something went wrong, those teams had plenty of options to fill in. And they still traded for more depth at the deadline. I think depth was a big reason those teams won 90+ games last year. The Twins can't spend as much as those guys, but they'd be wise to try to accumulate as much depth at each position as they can afford.
With these principles and the organizational review from last month in mind, here is what I would do were I in Bill Smith's shoes:
1. Sign Joe Mauer to an extension at 6 years/$120 million
This represents a bit of a conflict between Principle #1 and #3. Had the Twins been proactive about extending Mauer last offseason, I think he might have settled for something similar to Morneau's deal. Not anymore. Mauer has earned his 3rd batting title and will likely pick up his second gold glove and first MVP award. And he's only just entering his peak years. While I'd try to keep him to as few years as possible, since he plays a brutal position and has already spent significant time on the DL, I think it's realistically going to take at least 6 guaranteed years at nearly $20 million/year to get this deal done. So I propose to pay Mauer $19 million a year from 2011-2015, $20 million in 2016, and have a $20 million option for 2017 with a $5 million buyout. Perhaps it will be possible to defer some money as the Cardinals were able to do on Albert Pujols' current contract.
It's a ton of money, but Mauer may well be worth even more than that to the Twins, particularly if he's able to repeat his 2009 numbers in any of the upcoming seasons. And the loss in revenue and goodwill among the fan base if Mauer were allowed to walk or traded probably wouldn't be worth the savings. We've got to suck it up and get it done.
2. Decline Michael Cuddyer's 2011 option
This kinda sucks, because Cuddyer's been a good player for a long time and is coming off not only one of his best seasons, but one in which he helped carry the team into the postseason. It's unfortunate that his contract is structured in such a way that this decision has to be made within 5 days of the end of the 2009 World Series. If we knew how much Mauer was going to cost in 2011, I might feel differently. But without any cost certainty there, the sensible thing is to decline Cuddyer's $10.5M option.
Hopefully, he has another great season and, if things look favorable, we can offer him a contract for 2011 anyway. Certainly, we'll offer arbitration at the end of next year, making ourselves eligible for compensation draft picks should he sign elsewhere. And realistically, with his peak years behind him by then, we can probably expect about as much production from David Winfree or Rene Tosoni or some other prospect instead.
3. Renew Joe Crede's contract
This is for #2 and #4. Crede provided a few big hits for the Twins while playing exceptional defense at 3B. He only managed to play in about 60% of the games, but the Twins knew going into the season that he was injury-prone, so they signed him to a contract with a low base salary and incentives for more playing time. I think he provided reasonable value for what he was paid in 2009.
Someone is needed at 3B to start the season because Danny Valencia, one of the top prospects in the Twins' system, isn't quite ready for The Show. He demolished AA to the tune of .284/.373/.482, but gave back nearly .100 points of OPS in his 3 months at Rochester. But that's been his pattern as he's split levels over the past 3 seasons. As he moves up, he initially has trouble with strike zone control, but makes the adjustment by the following spring. In his first go at Fort Myers, he had a 3/1 K/BB ratio - that tightened to 3/2 when he came back in 2008. Then he went to New Britain and posted a 4/1 K/BB ratio, which he improved to 4/3 in 2009. He had about a 4/1 K/BB ratio in his first months at Rochester - we'll expect that to turn around this spring. When it does, he'll be ready for his MLB debut.
So I re-sign Crede to the same contract he had last year. If he does no more than in 2009, he'll buy Valencia a little more development time and make a solid contribution to the lineup for a portion of the season at a reasonable price. If he gets hurt, Valencia gets called up. But if he stays healthy, he's capable of performing at a level that will earn every bit of the extra money we'll owe him.
4. Let the other free agents walk
With the emergence of Jose Morales and Wilson Ramos set to start 2010 at AAA, we now have 3 above-average catching options at the upper levels. Which is to say, there are now 3 guys who could outperform a 39-year-old Mike Redmond. His offensive numbers have been in steep decline since 2006, and his catch-and-throw skills have deteriorated as well. He's been a marvelous asset to this team over the past 5 seasons, and I'd welcome him into the coaching ranks if he has any interest, but I don't think his body will allow him to have a positive impact on the field any more.
Ron Mahay gave the Twins a great month of September. He was available because the Royals released him after he had a terrible month of August. He see-sawed between lousy and great all season long. That meant his overall numbers were only OK, and his splits vs. lefties were only OK. He's just a couple of months younger than Redmond, so I wouldn't anticipate anything better from him next year, and it's more likely that things will get worse.
Carl Pavano gave the Twins 12 pretty good starts: he averaged 6 IP, 4.64 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 and just under 2.0 BB/9. Kevin Slowey, who should be 100% recovered from his wrist injury, averaged 5.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9. And it was a bit of an off year for him. Pavano is in position to get some pretty good guaranteed money and perhaps a multi-year deal, though 2009 was the first year since 2004 that he'd thrown more than 100 IP. About to turn 34, a big injury risk, duplicates Slowey (i.e. #3 starter) and we'd be buying high, which is a no-no.
Orlando Cabrera was as hot as anyone down the stretch, but he'll be 35 next year and is showing signs of physical decline. His OPS dropped for the second straight year, and he made a ton of mistakes at SS. His career OBP is just .322, which is not what you want in the #2 spot in the lineup. If I thought his defense were solid, I might try to get him for just one year. But it's not, and he'll probably be looking for more than we'd offer, so we wish him well...
5. Offer contracts to all arbitration-eligible players
This list includes Boof Bonser, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Francisco Liriano, Pat Neshek, Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and now JJ Hardy. As you'll see later, I'm inclined to try to trade some of these guys. But none of them will be so expensive that they couldn't perform up to the value of their contracts. I'm particularly keen to keep a roster full of quality bullpen arms, so Bonser, Crain, Guerrier and Neshek all come back with a chance to make the team next spring. Liriano had poor control last year, but had a ton of bad luck as well - he'll get every opportunity to make the rotation. Just 24 years old, Young still has time to improve. I'd only consider non-tendering Harris, but it's better to hold onto him for at least the first part of the offseason as I see how other pieces fall into place.
6. Settle the 40-man roster
7. Acquire JJ Hardy to be the starting SS
Check that one off the list.
8. Acquire an ace
9. Clarify the OF situation
Check on that one, too.
10. Make trades to balance the system
Organizational Principles
1. Develop from within
The Twins have been savvy when it comes to acquiring prospects and training them to be contributors at the Major League level. Players that come up through the system have an investment in the Twins, and the fans become invested in them. Wherever feasible, positions on the 25-man roster should be filled by players who have been brought up as Twins.
2. Do the little things right
Catch the balls you're supposed to catch. Know when to take the extra base (and when not to!). Keep pressure on struggling pitchers by taking a few pitches. Make sure that, when you make an out, you've at least had a productive AB, either advancing a runner or making the opposing pitcher work. Attack the strike zone, especially against weaker hitters. Be cautious with your location, especially when facing an elite hitter with RISP late in the game.
These are the sort of things the Twins have gained a reputation for doing. If that reputation is to be deserved, any players filling the roster must be inclined to execute all the little things that make such a big difference over the course of the season.
3. Buy low, sell high
Despite promising revenue trends in recent years, the Twins are still a small-market club, and must be wise about how they spend their resources. They cannot afford to overpay for free agents (as Toronto did in recent years). Nor can they afford to throw away players whose value is temporarily low (Craig Breslow). They must instead be brutally honest about what sort of production every considered player is capable of, and then target the ones who may be undervalued at the moment for whatever reason.
4. Accumulate depth at all positions at the upper levels
Rochester was pretty thin last season in terms of MLB-ready pitching, 3B and MI prospects, and that lack of depth held the Twins back for most of the summer. The offseasons that really caught my attention last year were those of the Red Sox and Dodgers, who each made sure to pick up multiple veterans (like Takashi Saito, John Smoltz and Brad Penny) even though they had promising youngsters available to fill those roles (like Justin Masterson and Clay Buchholz). Some of those moves paid off more than others, but when something went wrong, those teams had plenty of options to fill in. And they still traded for more depth at the deadline. I think depth was a big reason those teams won 90+ games last year. The Twins can't spend as much as those guys, but they'd be wise to try to accumulate as much depth at each position as they can afford.
With these principles and the organizational review from last month in mind, here is what I would do were I in Bill Smith's shoes:
1. Sign Joe Mauer to an extension at 6 years/$120 million
This represents a bit of a conflict between Principle #1 and #3. Had the Twins been proactive about extending Mauer last offseason, I think he might have settled for something similar to Morneau's deal. Not anymore. Mauer has earned his 3rd batting title and will likely pick up his second gold glove and first MVP award. And he's only just entering his peak years. While I'd try to keep him to as few years as possible, since he plays a brutal position and has already spent significant time on the DL, I think it's realistically going to take at least 6 guaranteed years at nearly $20 million/year to get this deal done. So I propose to pay Mauer $19 million a year from 2011-2015, $20 million in 2016, and have a $20 million option for 2017 with a $5 million buyout. Perhaps it will be possible to defer some money as the Cardinals were able to do on Albert Pujols' current contract.
It's a ton of money, but Mauer may well be worth even more than that to the Twins, particularly if he's able to repeat his 2009 numbers in any of the upcoming seasons. And the loss in revenue and goodwill among the fan base if Mauer were allowed to walk or traded probably wouldn't be worth the savings. We've got to suck it up and get it done.
2. Decline Michael Cuddyer's 2011 option
This kinda sucks, because Cuddyer's been a good player for a long time and is coming off not only one of his best seasons, but one in which he helped carry the team into the postseason. It's unfortunate that his contract is structured in such a way that this decision has to be made within 5 days of the end of the 2009 World Series. If we knew how much Mauer was going to cost in 2011, I might feel differently. But without any cost certainty there, the sensible thing is to decline Cuddyer's $10.5M option.
Hopefully, he has another great season and, if things look favorable, we can offer him a contract for 2011 anyway. Certainly, we'll offer arbitration at the end of next year, making ourselves eligible for compensation draft picks should he sign elsewhere. And realistically, with his peak years behind him by then, we can probably expect about as much production from David Winfree or Rene Tosoni or some other prospect instead.
3. Renew Joe Crede's contract
This is for #2 and #4. Crede provided a few big hits for the Twins while playing exceptional defense at 3B. He only managed to play in about 60% of the games, but the Twins knew going into the season that he was injury-prone, so they signed him to a contract with a low base salary and incentives for more playing time. I think he provided reasonable value for what he was paid in 2009.
Someone is needed at 3B to start the season because Danny Valencia, one of the top prospects in the Twins' system, isn't quite ready for The Show. He demolished AA to the tune of .284/.373/.482, but gave back nearly .100 points of OPS in his 3 months at Rochester. But that's been his pattern as he's split levels over the past 3 seasons. As he moves up, he initially has trouble with strike zone control, but makes the adjustment by the following spring. In his first go at Fort Myers, he had a 3/1 K/BB ratio - that tightened to 3/2 when he came back in 2008. Then he went to New Britain and posted a 4/1 K/BB ratio, which he improved to 4/3 in 2009. He had about a 4/1 K/BB ratio in his first months at Rochester - we'll expect that to turn around this spring. When it does, he'll be ready for his MLB debut.
So I re-sign Crede to the same contract he had last year. If he does no more than in 2009, he'll buy Valencia a little more development time and make a solid contribution to the lineup for a portion of the season at a reasonable price. If he gets hurt, Valencia gets called up. But if he stays healthy, he's capable of performing at a level that will earn every bit of the extra money we'll owe him.
4. Let the other free agents walk
With the emergence of Jose Morales and Wilson Ramos set to start 2010 at AAA, we now have 3 above-average catching options at the upper levels. Which is to say, there are now 3 guys who could outperform a 39-year-old Mike Redmond. His offensive numbers have been in steep decline since 2006, and his catch-and-throw skills have deteriorated as well. He's been a marvelous asset to this team over the past 5 seasons, and I'd welcome him into the coaching ranks if he has any interest, but I don't think his body will allow him to have a positive impact on the field any more.
Ron Mahay gave the Twins a great month of September. He was available because the Royals released him after he had a terrible month of August. He see-sawed between lousy and great all season long. That meant his overall numbers were only OK, and his splits vs. lefties were only OK. He's just a couple of months younger than Redmond, so I wouldn't anticipate anything better from him next year, and it's more likely that things will get worse.
Carl Pavano gave the Twins 12 pretty good starts: he averaged 6 IP, 4.64 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 and just under 2.0 BB/9. Kevin Slowey, who should be 100% recovered from his wrist injury, averaged 5.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9. And it was a bit of an off year for him. Pavano is in position to get some pretty good guaranteed money and perhaps a multi-year deal, though 2009 was the first year since 2004 that he'd thrown more than 100 IP. About to turn 34, a big injury risk, duplicates Slowey (i.e. #3 starter) and we'd be buying high, which is a no-no.
Orlando Cabrera was as hot as anyone down the stretch, but he'll be 35 next year and is showing signs of physical decline. His OPS dropped for the second straight year, and he made a ton of mistakes at SS. His career OBP is just .322, which is not what you want in the #2 spot in the lineup. If I thought his defense were solid, I might try to get him for just one year. But it's not, and he'll probably be looking for more than we'd offer, so we wish him well...
5. Offer contracts to all arbitration-eligible players
This list includes Boof Bonser, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Francisco Liriano, Pat Neshek, Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and now JJ Hardy. As you'll see later, I'm inclined to try to trade some of these guys. But none of them will be so expensive that they couldn't perform up to the value of their contracts. I'm particularly keen to keep a roster full of quality bullpen arms, so Bonser, Crain, Guerrier and Neshek all come back with a chance to make the team next spring. Liriano had poor control last year, but had a ton of bad luck as well - he'll get every opportunity to make the rotation. Just 24 years old, Young still has time to improve. I'd only consider non-tendering Harris, but it's better to hold onto him for at least the first part of the offseason as I see how other pieces fall into place.
6. Settle the 40-man roster
7. Acquire JJ Hardy to be the starting SS
Check that one off the list.
8. Acquire an ace
9. Clarify the OF situation
Check on that one, too.
10. Make trades to balance the system
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Opting for Cuddyer
Yes, it was a good thing I got my position out in the open when I did, because by the next morning, Bill Smith had pulled the trigger on Michael Cuddyer's $10.5 million option for 2011. Here is the passage in my increasingly obsolete Offseason Blueprint post explaining why I thought the Twins should decline:
This kinda sucks, because Cuddyer's been a good player for a long time and is coming off not only one of his best seasons, but one in which he helped carry the team into the postseason. It's unfortunate that his contract is structured in such a way that this decision has to be made within 5 days of the end of the 2009 World Series. If we knew how much Mauer was going to cost in 2011, I might feel differently. But without any cost certainty there, the sensible thing is to decline Cuddyer's $10.5M option.
Hopefully, he has another great season and, if things look favorable, we can offer him a contract for 2011 anyway. Certainly, we'll offer arbitration at the end of next year, making ourselves eligible for compensation draft picks should he sign elsewhere. And realistically, with his peak years behind him by then, we can probably expect about as much production from David Winfree or Rene Tosoni or some other prospect instead.
Those arguments didn't dissuade Mr. Smith. I want to be clear that Cuddyer absolutely earned this - he's been a terrific presence off the field for years, even when he's struggled on it. Now that we've seen what he can do when he's healthy, I don't think it's unreasonable to elevate the expectations for what he'll produce in the near future somewhat. A lot of teams pay a lot more than $10.5 M for a lot less than what Cuddyer did last year.
Still, they'd better have saved plenty of money for Mauer...
This kinda sucks, because Cuddyer's been a good player for a long time and is coming off not only one of his best seasons, but one in which he helped carry the team into the postseason. It's unfortunate that his contract is structured in such a way that this decision has to be made within 5 days of the end of the 2009 World Series. If we knew how much Mauer was going to cost in 2011, I might feel differently. But without any cost certainty there, the sensible thing is to decline Cuddyer's $10.5M option.
Hopefully, he has another great season and, if things look favorable, we can offer him a contract for 2011 anyway. Certainly, we'll offer arbitration at the end of next year, making ourselves eligible for compensation draft picks should he sign elsewhere. And realistically, with his peak years behind him by then, we can probably expect about as much production from David Winfree or Rene Tosoni or some other prospect instead.
Those arguments didn't dissuade Mr. Smith. I want to be clear that Cuddyer absolutely earned this - he's been a terrific presence off the field for years, even when he's struggled on it. Now that we've seen what he can do when he's healthy, I don't think it's unreasonable to elevate the expectations for what he'll produce in the near future somewhat. A lot of teams pay a lot more than $10.5 M for a lot less than what Cuddyer did last year.
Still, they'd better have saved plenty of money for Mauer...
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Go-Go Gone
The general state of business I've found myself in over the last few weeks has made it difficult to complete my ambitious Offseason Blueprint entry, wherein I spell out every move I'd make as Twins GM from here to Spring Training. Bill Smith is quickly making such a gesture obsolete. He outrighted Brian Buscher earlier this week, and yesterday sent CF Carlos Gomez to the Brewers for SS JJ Hardy, straight up.
Had I managed to post my Blueprint entry by now, you'd have seen that I wanted the Twins to trade for Hardy. He is a highly-rated defender at SS, first of all, and defense is something I think the Twins should be emphasizing as they build their team for 2010. He is also one of the better power threats from that position, averaging 30 2B and 25 HR between 2007-2008. He had a terrible season last year, batting just .229/.302/.357 with 11 HR in 115 games before being sent down to AAA in order to clear space for defensive whiz-kid Alcides Escobar. (Even that isn't terribly worse than the .263/.309/.374 with 10 HR that all Twins SS produced in 2009.) That move delayed Hardy's eligibility for free agency until after 2011, so the Twins will control him for the next 2 seasons, and he's just entering his peak. Even though his average and slugging plummeted, Hardy's walk rate improved for the 3rd straight year. If his hitting rebounds, and his defense remains consistent, the Twins will have one of the best SS in the AL.
In exchange, they part with Gomez. I always preferred Denard Span, but Gomez was without peer as a defender in CF and saved the Twins a ton of runs with his spectacular range. However, his skills at the plate are severely lacking, and he probably should have spent at least one of the last 2 years at Rochester. Maybe it would have made sense to send him there this season - his talent certainly is worth developing. In any case, his role with the Twins turned into nothing more than legs for Jason Kubel or a defensive upgrade over Delmon Young. Jason Pridie is perfectly capable of providing that for the Twins. Turning a bench OF into an everday SS is a pretty good trade for the Twins, just as turning a bench SS into an everyday CF is good for the Brewers.
One obvious implication of this move is that Delmon Young is going to be in the lineup everyday, at least to start the season. That means he has to get a lot better, in just about every facet of his game. He showed a nice uptick in power, particularly after the All-Star break, but his BB rate went backward, he suddenly wasn't an effective base stealer, and his defense in LF remained very poor. But he's just 24, so there's still time.
I was going to suggest that the Twins trade Brian Duensing and a role-player for Hardy. I like this deal - well done, Bill Smith. And, in case I don't get it posted in the next couple of days, let me go on record as saying the Twins should decline Michael Cuddyer's option. Details to come...
Had I managed to post my Blueprint entry by now, you'd have seen that I wanted the Twins to trade for Hardy. He is a highly-rated defender at SS, first of all, and defense is something I think the Twins should be emphasizing as they build their team for 2010. He is also one of the better power threats from that position, averaging 30 2B and 25 HR between 2007-2008. He had a terrible season last year, batting just .229/.302/.357 with 11 HR in 115 games before being sent down to AAA in order to clear space for defensive whiz-kid Alcides Escobar. (Even that isn't terribly worse than the .263/.309/.374 with 10 HR that all Twins SS produced in 2009.) That move delayed Hardy's eligibility for free agency until after 2011, so the Twins will control him for the next 2 seasons, and he's just entering his peak. Even though his average and slugging plummeted, Hardy's walk rate improved for the 3rd straight year. If his hitting rebounds, and his defense remains consistent, the Twins will have one of the best SS in the AL.
In exchange, they part with Gomez. I always preferred Denard Span, but Gomez was without peer as a defender in CF and saved the Twins a ton of runs with his spectacular range. However, his skills at the plate are severely lacking, and he probably should have spent at least one of the last 2 years at Rochester. Maybe it would have made sense to send him there this season - his talent certainly is worth developing. In any case, his role with the Twins turned into nothing more than legs for Jason Kubel or a defensive upgrade over Delmon Young. Jason Pridie is perfectly capable of providing that for the Twins. Turning a bench OF into an everday SS is a pretty good trade for the Twins, just as turning a bench SS into an everyday CF is good for the Brewers.
One obvious implication of this move is that Delmon Young is going to be in the lineup everyday, at least to start the season. That means he has to get a lot better, in just about every facet of his game. He showed a nice uptick in power, particularly after the All-Star break, but his BB rate went backward, he suddenly wasn't an effective base stealer, and his defense in LF remained very poor. But he's just 24, so there's still time.
I was going to suggest that the Twins trade Brian Duensing and a role-player for Hardy. I like this deal - well done, Bill Smith. And, in case I don't get it posted in the next couple of days, let me go on record as saying the Twins should decline Michael Cuddyer's option. Details to come...
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Offseason Priorities
This weekend the Twins hold their annual organizational meetings in Fort Myers. It's the time to assess all the talent in the system and craft a strategy for success in 2010 and beyond. They should be happy about:
1. The Major League Core
Joe Mauer (C), Justin Morneau (1B), Jason Kubel (DH), Denard Span (Leadoff/OF), and Joe Nathan (Closer) have proven themselves to be among the elite players in the league at their respective positions. They are complimented by Michael Cuddyer (RF), Jose Morales (C), Scott Baker (SP), Kevin Slowey (SP), Nick Blackburn (SP), Matt Guerrier (RP), Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares (RP). That's about half the roster right there, all capable of turning in performances well above average.
2. Acquiring high-ceiling prospects
Bill Smith's first 2 drafts have been huge successes. Recent #1 picks Ben Revere, Aaron Hicks and Kyle Gibson all have the potential to be regular MLB contributors. And this year the Twins handed out record bonuses in order to sign elite international prospects Miguel Angel Sano and Max Kepler. Those additions should see the Twins' system rise into the upper half of the talent rankings.
3. Depth at OF, 1B, 2B, C, RP, #3-5 SP
Throughout the Twins system, you see solid performances from those positions.
OF: Span, Cuddyer, Kubel, David Winfree, Rene Tosoni, Juan Portes, Revere, Joe Benson, Evan Bigley, Angel Morales (to say nothing of Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, Hicks or Kepler)
1B: Morneau, Brock Peterson, Justin Huber, Erik Lis, Chris Parmelee
2B: Steven Tolleson, Brian Dinkelman, Steve Singleton, Ramon Santana
C: Mauer, Morales, Wilson Ramos, Danny Lehmann, Daniel Rams
RP: Nathan, Guerrier, Mijares, Jesse Crain, Rauch, Pat Neshek, Boof Bonser, Anthony Slama, Rob Delaney, Armando Gabino, Alex Burnett, Kyle Waldrop, Loek van Mil, Spencer Steedley, Joe Testa, Santos Arias, Matthew Williams, Billy Bullock
SP: Slowey, Blackburn, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Brian Duensing, Jeff Manship, Matt Fox, Ryan Mullins, Tyler Robertson, Steve Hirschfeld, Mike McCardell, Carlos Gutierrez, Brad Tippett, Bruce Pugh
I'm probably forgetting a few guys. Needless to say, I feel like the Twins have those spots covered.
4. Attendance trends
Since bottoming out in 2000, the Twins have seen their attendance figures increase in every year but one. They drew better than 2.4 million fans in 2009 (the play-in helped!), and reached the upper half of the majors in average attendance. Target Field should ensure that those numbers go even higher in 2010. Plus, they ranked 5th among the MLB teams in local TV ratings. This should lead to lots of revenues over the next couple seasons, and correspondingly increased payrolls.
They should be concerned about:
1. Sub-Replacement Level performances
The RP in VORP and WARP stands for "replacement player," the theoretical performance that any scrub called up from AAA ought to be able to achieve. For a major leaguer to fall short of that level is not a good thing. Of the 16 position players the Twins used in 2009, 6 had negative VORP (Brian Buscher, Nick Punto, Mike Redmond, Matt Tolbert, Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla) and 2 more were essentially at replacement level (Joe Crede, Brendan Harris) at the plate. WARP incorporates defense, which lifts up Gomez, Punto and Crede but pulls down Harris and Delmon Young. 10 of the 24 pitchers the Twins used wound up with VORPs of 0 or negative. When 40% of the roster can't even surpass replacement level, there is room for improvement, to say the least.
2. Lack of high-ceiling prospects at upper levels
Look at the guys who played for AAA Rochester and AA New Britain this year. An average player in the International League hit .262/.328/.395 and pitched to a 3.92 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. The Eastern League averages were .258/.332/.385, 3.90 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Of the above-average performers, how many of them were previously established major leaguers (Tolbert, Mijares) or guys who broke camp with the Twins (Morales, Crain)? How many proved to be overmatched in the Majors when given opportunities in 2009 (Henn, Gabino)? How many have significant drawbacks to their ceiling/game, whether because of poor defense (Luke Hughes), plate discipline (Winfree) K/9 (Manship, Swarzak) or BB/9 (Morillo, Slama)? Could any of these guys be counted on to hold down a big league spot right out of spring training next year?
3. Lack of depth at SS, 3B, #1-2 SP
Of the players listed as SS on the Twins' roster and in their full-season affiliates (i.e. theoretically within 3 years of arriving in the Majors) only Trevor Plouffe is even an average hitter, and his youth makes another year at Rochester likely. Thanks to Hughes' poor glove and Deibinson Romero's step backward in 2009, only Danny Valencia looks promising at 3B, and he could probably use a couple more months at AAA before his first call-up. As for aces, Scott Baker is a bit stretched as a #1, and David Bromberg could be making himself into a #2. Kyle Gibson supposedly has that kind of talent, but he has yet to make his pro debut. Deolis Guerra was supposed to have that kind of potential, but has been inconsistent since joining the Twins. The short-season guys still have a long ways to go.
4. Escalating contracts
The Twins only had two arbitration-eligible players last season, but that figure goes up to 8 in 2010. The core players I mentioned above are already under contract/estimated raises totaling over $62 million, nearly as much as the 2009 opening day payroll. If the Twins bring back all the arbitration players, it should take the payroll up to around $74 million. And that would still leave considerable holes to fill at SS, 3B and, possibly, #1 starter. In 2011, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer, Nathan and Baker could command more than $64 million between them. Mauer's next contract should make Morneau's long-term deal look cheap.
Taking all of those things into consideration, here are the steps the Twins need to take this offseason:
1. Sign Mauer to an extension
I guess my starting offer would be $90 million for 5 years, the same deal Ichiro got 2 years ago. And it goes up from there. It should be for as little guaranteed money and as few years as possible, but it's got to happen. The Twins simply cannot afford the PR hit of letting their home-grown MVP walk in the year they open their taxpayer funded stadium.
2. Acquire a #1 starter
The Twins could either trade for someone like Josh Johnson, Matt Cain, or even Roy Halladay, or try to scoop up one of the free agents, like John Lackey or Rich Harden. I wouldn't mind seeing them take a gamble on one of the oft-injured aces like Erik Bedard or Ben Sheets, provided the contract was structured properly. Whichever way they decide to go, they should be looking for someone who can matchup with Zach Greinke, Justin Verlander and Jake Peavey when those division rivals are in town.
3. Acquire a productive middle infielder
There is a pretty broad market for free agent 2B, so the Twins should be able to pick something up there. There may be trade possibilities for JJ Hardy or Brendan Ryan. If they're intending for this person to hit in the #2 spot, he should be able to bat RH and have a high OBP. Strong defense is a must for me. If this person is good enough, I can live with Punto in the other spot batting 9th.
4. Make a short-term decision about third base
Valencia seems by all indications to be the long term answer at the hot corner, but is he ready to be an everyday player in the big leagues right now? If not, who takes that spot until he's ready? One of the replacement level (or worse) guys we already have on the roster? Somebody coming off an injury could be a good fit, maybe Crede again or Troy Glaus.
5. Figure out the best way to use the major league outfield talent
Neither Young nor Gomez had particularly good seasons in 2009, and yet each showed enough to give us hope that they might be improving. Will they be able to reach their potential playing as infrequently as they did last year? Is there someone else in the Twins system who could adequately fill the roles those two were given last year?
6. Determine who can be traded in order to provide depth at all positions, especially at AA, AAA and MLB
There is enough of a surplus at certain positions that I think we can safely say that certain minor leaguers really have no shot at becoming regular contributors while they remain in the Twins' system. Do them a favor and send them to an organization where they have a better opportunity. Surely, there is another team out there that feels the same way about its 3B or SS and would be happy balance their own system.
Hopefully, those are the things the Twins management is talking about this weekend. I'll be back soon to suggest some specific moves they could make.
1. The Major League Core
Joe Mauer (C), Justin Morneau (1B), Jason Kubel (DH), Denard Span (Leadoff/OF), and Joe Nathan (Closer) have proven themselves to be among the elite players in the league at their respective positions. They are complimented by Michael Cuddyer (RF), Jose Morales (C), Scott Baker (SP), Kevin Slowey (SP), Nick Blackburn (SP), Matt Guerrier (RP), Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares (RP). That's about half the roster right there, all capable of turning in performances well above average.
2. Acquiring high-ceiling prospects
Bill Smith's first 2 drafts have been huge successes. Recent #1 picks Ben Revere, Aaron Hicks and Kyle Gibson all have the potential to be regular MLB contributors. And this year the Twins handed out record bonuses in order to sign elite international prospects Miguel Angel Sano and Max Kepler. Those additions should see the Twins' system rise into the upper half of the talent rankings.
3. Depth at OF, 1B, 2B, C, RP, #3-5 SP
Throughout the Twins system, you see solid performances from those positions.
OF: Span, Cuddyer, Kubel, David Winfree, Rene Tosoni, Juan Portes, Revere, Joe Benson, Evan Bigley, Angel Morales (to say nothing of Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, Hicks or Kepler)
1B: Morneau, Brock Peterson, Justin Huber, Erik Lis, Chris Parmelee
2B: Steven Tolleson, Brian Dinkelman, Steve Singleton, Ramon Santana
C: Mauer, Morales, Wilson Ramos, Danny Lehmann, Daniel Rams
RP: Nathan, Guerrier, Mijares, Jesse Crain, Rauch, Pat Neshek, Boof Bonser, Anthony Slama, Rob Delaney, Armando Gabino, Alex Burnett, Kyle Waldrop, Loek van Mil, Spencer Steedley, Joe Testa, Santos Arias, Matthew Williams, Billy Bullock
SP: Slowey, Blackburn, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Brian Duensing, Jeff Manship, Matt Fox, Ryan Mullins, Tyler Robertson, Steve Hirschfeld, Mike McCardell, Carlos Gutierrez, Brad Tippett, Bruce Pugh
I'm probably forgetting a few guys. Needless to say, I feel like the Twins have those spots covered.
4. Attendance trends
Since bottoming out in 2000, the Twins have seen their attendance figures increase in every year but one. They drew better than 2.4 million fans in 2009 (the play-in helped!), and reached the upper half of the majors in average attendance. Target Field should ensure that those numbers go even higher in 2010. Plus, they ranked 5th among the MLB teams in local TV ratings. This should lead to lots of revenues over the next couple seasons, and correspondingly increased payrolls.
They should be concerned about:
1. Sub-Replacement Level performances
The RP in VORP and WARP stands for "replacement player," the theoretical performance that any scrub called up from AAA ought to be able to achieve. For a major leaguer to fall short of that level is not a good thing. Of the 16 position players the Twins used in 2009, 6 had negative VORP (Brian Buscher, Nick Punto, Mike Redmond, Matt Tolbert, Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla) and 2 more were essentially at replacement level (Joe Crede, Brendan Harris) at the plate. WARP incorporates defense, which lifts up Gomez, Punto and Crede but pulls down Harris and Delmon Young. 10 of the 24 pitchers the Twins used wound up with VORPs of 0 or negative. When 40% of the roster can't even surpass replacement level, there is room for improvement, to say the least.
2. Lack of high-ceiling prospects at upper levels
Look at the guys who played for AAA Rochester and AA New Britain this year. An average player in the International League hit .262/.328/.395 and pitched to a 3.92 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. The Eastern League averages were .258/.332/.385, 3.90 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Of the above-average performers, how many of them were previously established major leaguers (Tolbert, Mijares) or guys who broke camp with the Twins (Morales, Crain)? How many proved to be overmatched in the Majors when given opportunities in 2009 (Henn, Gabino)? How many have significant drawbacks to their ceiling/game, whether because of poor defense (Luke Hughes), plate discipline (Winfree) K/9 (Manship, Swarzak) or BB/9 (Morillo, Slama)? Could any of these guys be counted on to hold down a big league spot right out of spring training next year?
3. Lack of depth at SS, 3B, #1-2 SP
Of the players listed as SS on the Twins' roster and in their full-season affiliates (i.e. theoretically within 3 years of arriving in the Majors) only Trevor Plouffe is even an average hitter, and his youth makes another year at Rochester likely. Thanks to Hughes' poor glove and Deibinson Romero's step backward in 2009, only Danny Valencia looks promising at 3B, and he could probably use a couple more months at AAA before his first call-up. As for aces, Scott Baker is a bit stretched as a #1, and David Bromberg could be making himself into a #2. Kyle Gibson supposedly has that kind of talent, but he has yet to make his pro debut. Deolis Guerra was supposed to have that kind of potential, but has been inconsistent since joining the Twins. The short-season guys still have a long ways to go.
4. Escalating contracts
The Twins only had two arbitration-eligible players last season, but that figure goes up to 8 in 2010. The core players I mentioned above are already under contract/estimated raises totaling over $62 million, nearly as much as the 2009 opening day payroll. If the Twins bring back all the arbitration players, it should take the payroll up to around $74 million. And that would still leave considerable holes to fill at SS, 3B and, possibly, #1 starter. In 2011, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer, Nathan and Baker could command more than $64 million between them. Mauer's next contract should make Morneau's long-term deal look cheap.
Taking all of those things into consideration, here are the steps the Twins need to take this offseason:
1. Sign Mauer to an extension
I guess my starting offer would be $90 million for 5 years, the same deal Ichiro got 2 years ago. And it goes up from there. It should be for as little guaranteed money and as few years as possible, but it's got to happen. The Twins simply cannot afford the PR hit of letting their home-grown MVP walk in the year they open their taxpayer funded stadium.
2. Acquire a #1 starter
The Twins could either trade for someone like Josh Johnson, Matt Cain, or even Roy Halladay, or try to scoop up one of the free agents, like John Lackey or Rich Harden. I wouldn't mind seeing them take a gamble on one of the oft-injured aces like Erik Bedard or Ben Sheets, provided the contract was structured properly. Whichever way they decide to go, they should be looking for someone who can matchup with Zach Greinke, Justin Verlander and Jake Peavey when those division rivals are in town.
3. Acquire a productive middle infielder
There is a pretty broad market for free agent 2B, so the Twins should be able to pick something up there. There may be trade possibilities for JJ Hardy or Brendan Ryan. If they're intending for this person to hit in the #2 spot, he should be able to bat RH and have a high OBP. Strong defense is a must for me. If this person is good enough, I can live with Punto in the other spot batting 9th.
4. Make a short-term decision about third base
Valencia seems by all indications to be the long term answer at the hot corner, but is he ready to be an everyday player in the big leagues right now? If not, who takes that spot until he's ready? One of the replacement level (or worse) guys we already have on the roster? Somebody coming off an injury could be a good fit, maybe Crede again or Troy Glaus.
5. Figure out the best way to use the major league outfield talent
Neither Young nor Gomez had particularly good seasons in 2009, and yet each showed enough to give us hope that they might be improving. Will they be able to reach their potential playing as infrequently as they did last year? Is there someone else in the Twins system who could adequately fill the roles those two were given last year?
6. Determine who can be traded in order to provide depth at all positions, especially at AA, AAA and MLB
There is enough of a surplus at certain positions that I think we can safely say that certain minor leaguers really have no shot at becoming regular contributors while they remain in the Twins' system. Do them a favor and send them to an organization where they have a better opportunity. Surely, there is another team out there that feels the same way about its 3B or SS and would be happy balance their own system.
Hopefully, those are the things the Twins management is talking about this weekend. I'll be back soon to suggest some specific moves they could make.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
2009 Season Review
Home Record: 49-33
Away Record: 38-43
1st Half: 41-40
2nd Half: 46-36
Overall Record: 87-76, AL Central Champions
A lot of people had the Twins pegged for a big drop-off in wins this year. They pointed to the fact that the offense in 2008 was largely based on an unsustainably high BA with RISP. While I agreed that those numbers would regress, I felt that the loss in runs would be largely mitigated by an increase in HR. That, combined with a maturing starting staff and far more sure-handed defense, would keep the Twins' run differential similar to 2008, and therefore propel them to 85 or so wins, enough to compete to the very end in a rather weak division.
I had the record pretty well pegged, but they took a different route to get there than I expected. Here's what went wrong:
1. What? We Only Have 7 Weeks of Spring Training?
The disruption of the World Baseball Classic prompted Spring Training to start a few days earlier and end a week later than usual. Given all that extra time to prepare, I expected the Twins' players to be in mid-season form from opening day. A handful were: Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn, Jose Morales, Denard Span, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel. But the rest of the roster had humongous holes in their game in April: Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey couldn't keep the ball in the yard, Jesse Crain and Craig Breslow couldn't throw strikes, and Joe Crede was the only other position player to crack a .700 OPS. But, thanks to bullpen implosions by the Mariners and Angels, the Twins were able to escape the first month with a .500 record.
2. Aren't There Supposed to Be 9 Hitters in the Lineup?
The ridiculously awesome Joe Mauer returned to the lineup on May 1, and Michael Cuddyer snapped out of his April funk to be better than he's ever been the rest of the season. Those 2 joined Span, Morneau and Kubel in consistently strong contributions. That's 5 good hitters. Even though he had a lousy BA and OBP, Joe Crede provided enough power (15 HR, 16 2B, 48 RBI) in 60% of the season that I'll throw him in there, too. So 6 good hitters, when Crede was healthy. But the other 3 lineup spots, 2B/#2, LF/#8 and SS/#9 were appallingly bad, struggling for most of the season to hit even .200, avoid making outs more than 70% of the time, and provide any XBH. Even replacement level production from those spots over the full season probably would have brought the Twins over 90 wins.
3. You Have a Pulse, Right? Wanna Pitch for the Twins?
The Twins set a dubious club record in 2009: Most Pitchers Used in a Season. 24 different players took the mound this season, and only 9 were able to best the AL ERA average (4.45) while in a Twins uniform. Lengthy DL stays by 3/5 of the starting rotation certainly didn't help, but ineffectiveness was as much a reason for the multitude of arms as anything. Breslow and Crain were demoted to AAA, Francisco Liriano was sent to the 'pen. A revolving door of Rochester pitchers were invited to fill the holes, but, until the very end of the season, none was able to provide sustained success. I had expected the pitching staff to be better than last year, but they fell well short of that.
4. Bumbling Bill Smith
Having finished just a game short of the postseason in a mediocre division, one might have expected Bill Smith to take advantage of the Twins' considerable payroll flexibility and a historically depressed free agent market in order to put his team over the competitive hump. Instead, he essentially stood pat, re-signing Nick Punto, adding Crede and Luis Ayala, but subtracting superlative LOOGY Dennys Reyes. Then, he weakened an already shallow bullpen by losing Breslow on waivers to Oakland (Breslow's numbers with the A's: 55.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) and replacing him with Sean Henn (11.1, 7.15, 1.50). Smith's failure to add depth to the roster in the offseason kept the Twins spinning their wheels throughout the summer.
A daunting list of shortcomings to surmount, but they did it, because a lot of things went right:
1. More Powerful Than I Could Possibly Imagine!
Yes, I expected the Twins to surpass the 111 HR they hit in 2008, but by something on the order of 30 additional bombs. In fact, the Twins blasted 61 more HR, and had 4 players hit more than 25 for the first time since 1987. Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Denard Span all set new career highs, and Justin Morneau got back to 30 before being sidelined by his back injury. The offense's numbers with RISP did indeed take a significant hit (from .305 in '08 down to .278 this year), but the barrage of long balls made up for all but 12 runs of the difference, and the Twins still finished 4th in the league with 817 R.
2. Just Catch the Damn Ball!
The 108 E and 70 unearned R the Twins allowed in 2008 were unprecedented under the Gardy administration, and I knew it would be a priority for them to clean that up. Say what you want about range or defensive efficiency, the Twins are known for making the plays they're supposed to make, and last year they didn't. This year, things were back to normal. In spite of the disproportionate number of errors Orlando Cabrera committed in just 2 months with the team, they still finished tied for first in the AL in fewest errors and 2nd in fielding percentage. That translated into 31 fewer unearned runs allowed than last year.
3. Bill Smith to the Rescue!
Recognizing that the division could be won by a slightly over .500 team, but that the group he had fielded was pretty much exactly a .500 team, the Twins' GM embarked on a flurry of late-season trades unlike anything attempted by his predecessor. He brought in Cabrera to raise the production from the dreadful SS/#2 spot. He brought in Carl Pavano to anchor a reeling starting rotation. He brought in Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay to solidify a combustible bullpen. All the moves worked (eventually), as what had been a .505 team through July improved to .583 over the final two months.
4. Somebody Step Up!
Those additions were a big help, but they were partially made to make up for the subtractions of Morneau, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins and Francisco Liriano. They did nothing to address the disappointing production the Twins had received from 3B, 2B, LF and the #4 starter. The Twins' happy ending resulted from contributions far exceeding what anyone could have predicted from existing role players. Delmon Young, Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto had put up terrible numbers for most of the season, but went off over the final 3 weeks to finally give the Twins a productive lineup from top to bottom. And Brian Duensing, following in the unimpressive footsteps of RA Dickey, Philip Humber, Anthony Swarzak, Kevin Mulvey, Armando Gabino and Jeff Manship, was given an opportunity to make some starts and not only made the most of it, but was one of the Twins' best pitchers down the stretch, compiling a 2.73 ERA and 5-1 record as a starter. If he pitches like he did at Rochester, the Twins don't catch the Tigers.
Baseball's postseason has always been about bragging rights between divisions and leagues, proving which of them was the strongest. I think we all knew going into the season that the Twins' division was the weakest. Among the AL Central clubs, the Twins were the only team to have a positive run differential, as well as a winning record against all of their division rivals. By those measures, at least, the Twins deserved to win the Central, and it was gratifying to see them pull it off. Maybe next year they won't have to wait until the last minute to do it.
In order to make the task of grading players easier, I'm only going to rate hitters with more AB than Jose Morales and pitchers with more innings than Jeff Manship. (Suffice it to say, Rauch and Mahay were terrific, while Breslow, Henn, Humber, Gabino and Mulvey were lousy.)
Flat Out Awesome
Joe Mauer - And I thought he had a great season last year. If it's possible for a multiple All-Star and Batting Champ to have a breakout season, Mauer did it, setting career highs in BA, OBP, SLG, HR and RBI. Not just the league's best hitter - the league's best player. Yikes, he's going to be expensive.
Denard Span - I was worried after his sluggish spring, but Span was ready once the regular season started. The XBH didn't come as easily as last summer, but he isn't paid to slug - his job is to get on base, and very few qualified hitters did it better. Span finished 9th in the league in BA, 10th in OBP, and 3rd in OBP among leadoff hitters.
Jason Kubel - After last season I noted that if Kubel could have picked up an extra knock every 2 weeks, even if they were all singles, he'd have hit .300/.360/.499. This season he got those extra base hits, and they weren't all singles. He finished at .300/.369/.539 with 28 HR and 103 RBI - all career highs.
Michael Cuddyer - Nagging injuries throughout the last 2 seasons had begun to make Cuddyer's fantastic 2006 seem like an aberration. This year, he justified the team's investment in him, setting career highs in G, AB, HR and SLG. He'd already put together a strong season when Morneau went down, but the way he stepped up to fill that void helped lead the team into the postseason.
Joe Nathan - I almost got caught up in the notion that Nathan's prominent blown saves over the season's final 6 weeks meant that he'd had a subpar year, but the numbers just don't back that up. His K/9 and BAA were the best they've been since 2006. If not for that one lousy game against the White Sox, when he gave up 4 ER on 2 HR and 2BB after the Twins' defense had recorded 27 outs, his ERA, BB and HR numbers would have been as stellar as ever.
Matt Guerrier - I figured he'd bounce back a bit from his disastrous finish to 2008, but Guerrier did better than that. He maintained his 76.1 IP workload while setting career bests in BA, OBP and SLG against, and nearly matched his career best ERA at 2.36. The only downside is that he gave up 10 HR, but at least they were mostly solo shots.
Most Satisfying
Justin Morneau - It's a testament to the ferocious pace Morneau set for the first 4 months that his deep slump in the final weeks could only drop him to an .879 OPS. In just over 500 AB, he was able to hit 30 HR with 100 RBI. He still needs to prove he can finish a season strong, but I'll give him a mulligan on this year.
Jose Morales - Asked to fill in for Joe Mauer in April, Morales hit like, well, Joe Mauer. I mean, the pre-2009 version, anyway. He drew more walks than I expected, finishing the year with a .381 OBP despite a deep slump over the final few games. He's a no-brainer to be Mauer's caddy next year.
Brian Duensing - In 14 relief appearances, Duensing didn't look much better than any of the other AAA filler the Twins brought up over the summer. But when he was given a chance to start, he was stupendous, lasting into the 6th inning nearly every time out and keeping his ERA under 3.00. Glen Perkins should be nervous.
Jose Mijares - He stumbled a bit over the final few days of the season, but Mijares was largely an excellent option out of the 'pen. Altogether, he had a 2.34 ERA over 61.2 IP with 55 K/23 BB (better than his minor league averages). He was able to hold lefties to a .480 OPS.
Nick Blackburn - If you liked Blackburn last year (and I did), then you had to like him this year, too. His final numbers were almost identical in terms of starts, ERA, WHIP, HR/9, K, BB, and W-L record. He averaged about an extra out per appearance, and was the Twins' best pitcher for much of the season. I'll expect more of the same next year.
Not Too Shabby
Delmon Young - Yes, I'm very concerned about the major step backward young took in plate discipline this season (92/12 K/BB). But I'm pleased by the career-best power he displayed (.425 SLG, .141 IsoP). Understanding that a lot of his trouble came from the funk he was in immediately after his mother died in May, check out his post All-Star Break numbers: .300/.322/.502 with 10 2B, 9 HR and 35 RBI. All this in his age 23 season. He needs to take more pitches, but he's coming along.
Joe Crede - His batting average was lower than normal, so Crede wound up with an OPS just a shade over .700. But he had a lot of big hits and played rock solid defense at the hot corner. While he was on the field, which was only about 60% of the time. Did I expect all that? Yeah, so I can't say he disappointed me.
Nick Punto - There are some who will say that Punto was awful this season, just as bad as he was in 2007. Hardly. Even when his average was south of .200, he was drawing walks at a career-best rate. When the hits started to fall in for him down the stretch, he was able to raise his BA to .228. Not good, but his remarkable .109 IsoD gave him an OBP of .337, very close to the .344 he had in his "good" year of 2008. Add in 16/19 SB and sure-handed defense, and I'm satisfied.
Scott Baker - He made 33 starts, threw 200 IP for the first time in his career, and had a fine 15-9 record, but Baker should have been better. He gave up half of his 28 HR in his first 9 starts, spanning 52.2 IP. After that, he was 13-3 with a 3.67 ERA the rest of the way. He made a mechanical adjustment, apparently. Why weren't his mechanics adjusted by the end of Spring Training?
Luis Ayala - Apparently some folks were deluded about his abilities, perhaps including Ayala himself. He wasn't going to be a blow-them-away setup man or a ground ball machine. He was going to be a slightly above-average, rubber-armed middle reliever. And so he was.
RA Dickey - Signed to be filler on the AAA team, Dickey was so good in spring training that he earned a spot in the 'pen. And for a while, it looked as though he'd figured out the whole knuckleball thing, compiling a 2.45 in 44 IP with a 31/17 K/BB ratio through June. He came crashing down after that, with a 9.30 ERA and 11/13 K/BB ratio in 12 appearances before his dismissal in early August. Still, who would have thought we'd even get a couple of good months out of him when he signed?
Jesse Crain - It was a tale of two halves for Crain. Early in the year he was a mess, with a 8.15 ERA, 1.92 WHIP and 3 HR allowed in 17.2 IP before a midsummer demotion to Rochester. When he returned, he was the Crain of old: 2.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 0 HR allowed in 34 IP. Problem solved.
Not So Good
Brendan Harris - I was one of the proponents of the Harris/Buscher platoon at 3B heading into the season. It's a good thing Bill Smith got Joe Crede and Matt Tolbert finished so strong, because 3B would have been a disaster if we'd had to rely on just these guys. Harris' offensive numbers have declined for 3 straight years now, and his defensive range is nothing special.
Brian Buscher - I'll say one thing for Buscher: he's got a great eye at the plate. His .125 IsoD makes Joe Mauer look like Delmon Young. He kept himself marginally useful by reaching base 36% of the time and making just about all the makable plays at 3B. But after slugging like Jason Kubel for 2 years in a row at Rochester, it was a big disappointment to see him accumulate just 6 XBH in 136 AB.
Carlos Gomez - He definitely made some strides this year, lowering his preposterous K/BB rate from 5.68 to 3.27, and generally playing exceptional CF defense. But the speed pieces of his game took steps back - his SB success rate dropped from 75% to 67%, and he stopped getting bunt hits - so his overall offensive value didn't even measure up to last year.
Bobby Keppel - In an ideal world, Keppel never gets the call to join the Twins. But, having ditched Breslow and Ayala, the Twins needed another middle reliever, and Keppel was doing well at Rochester. He got off to a great start, allowing just 1 ER on 8 H (0 HR) over his first 16 IP. The remaining 38 IP were pretty dicey: 28 ER on 55 H (4 HR), beginning with the nightmare 14-13 loss to Oakland on July 20th.
Kevin Slowey - It may not be fair, but I hold Slowey to a pretty high standard. Though he was able to use prodigious run support to build a 10-3 record, he never established the consistency he's capable of, and that the rotation desperately needed. Of his 16 starts in 2009, only 9 were QS, and I just think he should be better than that.
Jeff Manship - Certainly he was over his head, having begun the season at AA and made only 9 AAA starts before being called up to the Twins' decimated pitching staff. But he was supposed to be able to throw strikes and keep the ball in the yard, and he didn't do that. Back to Rochester he goes...
Flat Out Awful
Mike Redmond - I didn't think twice about the Twins picking up Redmond's option last fall. Sure, his numbers were in steady decline from their 2006 peaks, but 2008 was the first time he'd been below his career averages as a Twin, and that was still good for a .287 BA. At 38, age finally caught up to him, as his OPS dropped below .600 for the first time in his career, and he threw out just 1 out of every 8 base stealers.
Alexi Casilla - He had pretty good plate discipline (.078 IsoD) and went 11/11 in SB attempts. But he was an easy out for most of the season, finishing the year with a .280 OBP, and he had several concentration lapses in the field as well. At least he ended the regular season on a good note!
Anthony Swarzak - Like Keppel, Swarzak started his Twins career with a run of scoreless innings. But he was quality just 3 times over his final 10 starts, and nobody was more flammable in August, when he gave up 22 ER on 33 H and 8 HR in just 13.1 IP over 4 starts (14.85 ERA).
Glen Perkins - He was the only Twins starter to come out of the gate strong, throwing 29 IP over 4 GS with a 2.48 ERA and 0 HR allowed in April. Then he got torched for 20 ER in just 18 IP with 6 HR allowed over his next 4 GS, and went on the DL. He was good Perkins again for his next 4 starts, allowing just 8 ER over 27 IP with 1 HR allowed, before he was torched again for 27 ER in 21.1 IP with 6 HR allowed over his final 5 GS. And never came back. Was it all physical? Or is he just that inconsistent?
Francisco Liriano - He never really got it going this year, mostly due to an inability to command his fastball. That led to nearly a BB every 2 IP, and a HR served up every 6-7 IP. There was some hope that he'd be a co-ace along with Baker, at least a solid #2. Not even close. And moving to the bullpen didn't make him any more likely to throw strikes or keep the ball in the yard.
Away Record: 38-43
1st Half: 41-40
2nd Half: 46-36
Overall Record: 87-76, AL Central Champions
A lot of people had the Twins pegged for a big drop-off in wins this year. They pointed to the fact that the offense in 2008 was largely based on an unsustainably high BA with RISP. While I agreed that those numbers would regress, I felt that the loss in runs would be largely mitigated by an increase in HR. That, combined with a maturing starting staff and far more sure-handed defense, would keep the Twins' run differential similar to 2008, and therefore propel them to 85 or so wins, enough to compete to the very end in a rather weak division.
I had the record pretty well pegged, but they took a different route to get there than I expected. Here's what went wrong:
1. What? We Only Have 7 Weeks of Spring Training?
The disruption of the World Baseball Classic prompted Spring Training to start a few days earlier and end a week later than usual. Given all that extra time to prepare, I expected the Twins' players to be in mid-season form from opening day. A handful were: Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn, Jose Morales, Denard Span, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel. But the rest of the roster had humongous holes in their game in April: Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey couldn't keep the ball in the yard, Jesse Crain and Craig Breslow couldn't throw strikes, and Joe Crede was the only other position player to crack a .700 OPS. But, thanks to bullpen implosions by the Mariners and Angels, the Twins were able to escape the first month with a .500 record.
2. Aren't There Supposed to Be 9 Hitters in the Lineup?
The ridiculously awesome Joe Mauer returned to the lineup on May 1, and Michael Cuddyer snapped out of his April funk to be better than he's ever been the rest of the season. Those 2 joined Span, Morneau and Kubel in consistently strong contributions. That's 5 good hitters. Even though he had a lousy BA and OBP, Joe Crede provided enough power (15 HR, 16 2B, 48 RBI) in 60% of the season that I'll throw him in there, too. So 6 good hitters, when Crede was healthy. But the other 3 lineup spots, 2B/#2, LF/#8 and SS/#9 were appallingly bad, struggling for most of the season to hit even .200, avoid making outs more than 70% of the time, and provide any XBH. Even replacement level production from those spots over the full season probably would have brought the Twins over 90 wins.
3. You Have a Pulse, Right? Wanna Pitch for the Twins?
The Twins set a dubious club record in 2009: Most Pitchers Used in a Season. 24 different players took the mound this season, and only 9 were able to best the AL ERA average (4.45) while in a Twins uniform. Lengthy DL stays by 3/5 of the starting rotation certainly didn't help, but ineffectiveness was as much a reason for the multitude of arms as anything. Breslow and Crain were demoted to AAA, Francisco Liriano was sent to the 'pen. A revolving door of Rochester pitchers were invited to fill the holes, but, until the very end of the season, none was able to provide sustained success. I had expected the pitching staff to be better than last year, but they fell well short of that.
4. Bumbling Bill Smith
Having finished just a game short of the postseason in a mediocre division, one might have expected Bill Smith to take advantage of the Twins' considerable payroll flexibility and a historically depressed free agent market in order to put his team over the competitive hump. Instead, he essentially stood pat, re-signing Nick Punto, adding Crede and Luis Ayala, but subtracting superlative LOOGY Dennys Reyes. Then, he weakened an already shallow bullpen by losing Breslow on waivers to Oakland (Breslow's numbers with the A's: 55.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) and replacing him with Sean Henn (11.1, 7.15, 1.50). Smith's failure to add depth to the roster in the offseason kept the Twins spinning their wheels throughout the summer.
A daunting list of shortcomings to surmount, but they did it, because a lot of things went right:
1. More Powerful Than I Could Possibly Imagine!
Yes, I expected the Twins to surpass the 111 HR they hit in 2008, but by something on the order of 30 additional bombs. In fact, the Twins blasted 61 more HR, and had 4 players hit more than 25 for the first time since 1987. Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Denard Span all set new career highs, and Justin Morneau got back to 30 before being sidelined by his back injury. The offense's numbers with RISP did indeed take a significant hit (from .305 in '08 down to .278 this year), but the barrage of long balls made up for all but 12 runs of the difference, and the Twins still finished 4th in the league with 817 R.
2. Just Catch the Damn Ball!
The 108 E and 70 unearned R the Twins allowed in 2008 were unprecedented under the Gardy administration, and I knew it would be a priority for them to clean that up. Say what you want about range or defensive efficiency, the Twins are known for making the plays they're supposed to make, and last year they didn't. This year, things were back to normal. In spite of the disproportionate number of errors Orlando Cabrera committed in just 2 months with the team, they still finished tied for first in the AL in fewest errors and 2nd in fielding percentage. That translated into 31 fewer unearned runs allowed than last year.
3. Bill Smith to the Rescue!
Recognizing that the division could be won by a slightly over .500 team, but that the group he had fielded was pretty much exactly a .500 team, the Twins' GM embarked on a flurry of late-season trades unlike anything attempted by his predecessor. He brought in Cabrera to raise the production from the dreadful SS/#2 spot. He brought in Carl Pavano to anchor a reeling starting rotation. He brought in Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay to solidify a combustible bullpen. All the moves worked (eventually), as what had been a .505 team through July improved to .583 over the final two months.
4. Somebody Step Up!
Those additions were a big help, but they were partially made to make up for the subtractions of Morneau, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins and Francisco Liriano. They did nothing to address the disappointing production the Twins had received from 3B, 2B, LF and the #4 starter. The Twins' happy ending resulted from contributions far exceeding what anyone could have predicted from existing role players. Delmon Young, Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto had put up terrible numbers for most of the season, but went off over the final 3 weeks to finally give the Twins a productive lineup from top to bottom. And Brian Duensing, following in the unimpressive footsteps of RA Dickey, Philip Humber, Anthony Swarzak, Kevin Mulvey, Armando Gabino and Jeff Manship, was given an opportunity to make some starts and not only made the most of it, but was one of the Twins' best pitchers down the stretch, compiling a 2.73 ERA and 5-1 record as a starter. If he pitches like he did at Rochester, the Twins don't catch the Tigers.
Baseball's postseason has always been about bragging rights between divisions and leagues, proving which of them was the strongest. I think we all knew going into the season that the Twins' division was the weakest. Among the AL Central clubs, the Twins were the only team to have a positive run differential, as well as a winning record against all of their division rivals. By those measures, at least, the Twins deserved to win the Central, and it was gratifying to see them pull it off. Maybe next year they won't have to wait until the last minute to do it.
In order to make the task of grading players easier, I'm only going to rate hitters with more AB than Jose Morales and pitchers with more innings than Jeff Manship. (Suffice it to say, Rauch and Mahay were terrific, while Breslow, Henn, Humber, Gabino and Mulvey were lousy.)
Flat Out Awesome
Joe Mauer - And I thought he had a great season last year. If it's possible for a multiple All-Star and Batting Champ to have a breakout season, Mauer did it, setting career highs in BA, OBP, SLG, HR and RBI. Not just the league's best hitter - the league's best player. Yikes, he's going to be expensive.
Denard Span - I was worried after his sluggish spring, but Span was ready once the regular season started. The XBH didn't come as easily as last summer, but he isn't paid to slug - his job is to get on base, and very few qualified hitters did it better. Span finished 9th in the league in BA, 10th in OBP, and 3rd in OBP among leadoff hitters.
Jason Kubel - After last season I noted that if Kubel could have picked up an extra knock every 2 weeks, even if they were all singles, he'd have hit .300/.360/.499. This season he got those extra base hits, and they weren't all singles. He finished at .300/.369/.539 with 28 HR and 103 RBI - all career highs.
Michael Cuddyer - Nagging injuries throughout the last 2 seasons had begun to make Cuddyer's fantastic 2006 seem like an aberration. This year, he justified the team's investment in him, setting career highs in G, AB, HR and SLG. He'd already put together a strong season when Morneau went down, but the way he stepped up to fill that void helped lead the team into the postseason.
Joe Nathan - I almost got caught up in the notion that Nathan's prominent blown saves over the season's final 6 weeks meant that he'd had a subpar year, but the numbers just don't back that up. His K/9 and BAA were the best they've been since 2006. If not for that one lousy game against the White Sox, when he gave up 4 ER on 2 HR and 2BB after the Twins' defense had recorded 27 outs, his ERA, BB and HR numbers would have been as stellar as ever.
Matt Guerrier - I figured he'd bounce back a bit from his disastrous finish to 2008, but Guerrier did better than that. He maintained his 76.1 IP workload while setting career bests in BA, OBP and SLG against, and nearly matched his career best ERA at 2.36. The only downside is that he gave up 10 HR, but at least they were mostly solo shots.
Most Satisfying
Justin Morneau - It's a testament to the ferocious pace Morneau set for the first 4 months that his deep slump in the final weeks could only drop him to an .879 OPS. In just over 500 AB, he was able to hit 30 HR with 100 RBI. He still needs to prove he can finish a season strong, but I'll give him a mulligan on this year.
Jose Morales - Asked to fill in for Joe Mauer in April, Morales hit like, well, Joe Mauer. I mean, the pre-2009 version, anyway. He drew more walks than I expected, finishing the year with a .381 OBP despite a deep slump over the final few games. He's a no-brainer to be Mauer's caddy next year.
Brian Duensing - In 14 relief appearances, Duensing didn't look much better than any of the other AAA filler the Twins brought up over the summer. But when he was given a chance to start, he was stupendous, lasting into the 6th inning nearly every time out and keeping his ERA under 3.00. Glen Perkins should be nervous.
Jose Mijares - He stumbled a bit over the final few days of the season, but Mijares was largely an excellent option out of the 'pen. Altogether, he had a 2.34 ERA over 61.2 IP with 55 K/23 BB (better than his minor league averages). He was able to hold lefties to a .480 OPS.
Nick Blackburn - If you liked Blackburn last year (and I did), then you had to like him this year, too. His final numbers were almost identical in terms of starts, ERA, WHIP, HR/9, K, BB, and W-L record. He averaged about an extra out per appearance, and was the Twins' best pitcher for much of the season. I'll expect more of the same next year.
Not Too Shabby
Delmon Young - Yes, I'm very concerned about the major step backward young took in plate discipline this season (92/12 K/BB). But I'm pleased by the career-best power he displayed (.425 SLG, .141 IsoP). Understanding that a lot of his trouble came from the funk he was in immediately after his mother died in May, check out his post All-Star Break numbers: .300/.322/.502 with 10 2B, 9 HR and 35 RBI. All this in his age 23 season. He needs to take more pitches, but he's coming along.
Joe Crede - His batting average was lower than normal, so Crede wound up with an OPS just a shade over .700. But he had a lot of big hits and played rock solid defense at the hot corner. While he was on the field, which was only about 60% of the time. Did I expect all that? Yeah, so I can't say he disappointed me.
Nick Punto - There are some who will say that Punto was awful this season, just as bad as he was in 2007. Hardly. Even when his average was south of .200, he was drawing walks at a career-best rate. When the hits started to fall in for him down the stretch, he was able to raise his BA to .228. Not good, but his remarkable .109 IsoD gave him an OBP of .337, very close to the .344 he had in his "good" year of 2008. Add in 16/19 SB and sure-handed defense, and I'm satisfied.
Scott Baker - He made 33 starts, threw 200 IP for the first time in his career, and had a fine 15-9 record, but Baker should have been better. He gave up half of his 28 HR in his first 9 starts, spanning 52.2 IP. After that, he was 13-3 with a 3.67 ERA the rest of the way. He made a mechanical adjustment, apparently. Why weren't his mechanics adjusted by the end of Spring Training?
Luis Ayala - Apparently some folks were deluded about his abilities, perhaps including Ayala himself. He wasn't going to be a blow-them-away setup man or a ground ball machine. He was going to be a slightly above-average, rubber-armed middle reliever. And so he was.
RA Dickey - Signed to be filler on the AAA team, Dickey was so good in spring training that he earned a spot in the 'pen. And for a while, it looked as though he'd figured out the whole knuckleball thing, compiling a 2.45 in 44 IP with a 31/17 K/BB ratio through June. He came crashing down after that, with a 9.30 ERA and 11/13 K/BB ratio in 12 appearances before his dismissal in early August. Still, who would have thought we'd even get a couple of good months out of him when he signed?
Jesse Crain - It was a tale of two halves for Crain. Early in the year he was a mess, with a 8.15 ERA, 1.92 WHIP and 3 HR allowed in 17.2 IP before a midsummer demotion to Rochester. When he returned, he was the Crain of old: 2.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 0 HR allowed in 34 IP. Problem solved.
Not So Good
Brendan Harris - I was one of the proponents of the Harris/Buscher platoon at 3B heading into the season. It's a good thing Bill Smith got Joe Crede and Matt Tolbert finished so strong, because 3B would have been a disaster if we'd had to rely on just these guys. Harris' offensive numbers have declined for 3 straight years now, and his defensive range is nothing special.
Brian Buscher - I'll say one thing for Buscher: he's got a great eye at the plate. His .125 IsoD makes Joe Mauer look like Delmon Young. He kept himself marginally useful by reaching base 36% of the time and making just about all the makable plays at 3B. But after slugging like Jason Kubel for 2 years in a row at Rochester, it was a big disappointment to see him accumulate just 6 XBH in 136 AB.
Carlos Gomez - He definitely made some strides this year, lowering his preposterous K/BB rate from 5.68 to 3.27, and generally playing exceptional CF defense. But the speed pieces of his game took steps back - his SB success rate dropped from 75% to 67%, and he stopped getting bunt hits - so his overall offensive value didn't even measure up to last year.
Bobby Keppel - In an ideal world, Keppel never gets the call to join the Twins. But, having ditched Breslow and Ayala, the Twins needed another middle reliever, and Keppel was doing well at Rochester. He got off to a great start, allowing just 1 ER on 8 H (0 HR) over his first 16 IP. The remaining 38 IP were pretty dicey: 28 ER on 55 H (4 HR), beginning with the nightmare 14-13 loss to Oakland on July 20th.
Kevin Slowey - It may not be fair, but I hold Slowey to a pretty high standard. Though he was able to use prodigious run support to build a 10-3 record, he never established the consistency he's capable of, and that the rotation desperately needed. Of his 16 starts in 2009, only 9 were QS, and I just think he should be better than that.
Jeff Manship - Certainly he was over his head, having begun the season at AA and made only 9 AAA starts before being called up to the Twins' decimated pitching staff. But he was supposed to be able to throw strikes and keep the ball in the yard, and he didn't do that. Back to Rochester he goes...
Flat Out Awful
Mike Redmond - I didn't think twice about the Twins picking up Redmond's option last fall. Sure, his numbers were in steady decline from their 2006 peaks, but 2008 was the first time he'd been below his career averages as a Twin, and that was still good for a .287 BA. At 38, age finally caught up to him, as his OPS dropped below .600 for the first time in his career, and he threw out just 1 out of every 8 base stealers.
Alexi Casilla - He had pretty good plate discipline (.078 IsoD) and went 11/11 in SB attempts. But he was an easy out for most of the season, finishing the year with a .280 OBP, and he had several concentration lapses in the field as well. At least he ended the regular season on a good note!
Anthony Swarzak - Like Keppel, Swarzak started his Twins career with a run of scoreless innings. But he was quality just 3 times over his final 10 starts, and nobody was more flammable in August, when he gave up 22 ER on 33 H and 8 HR in just 13.1 IP over 4 starts (14.85 ERA).
Glen Perkins - He was the only Twins starter to come out of the gate strong, throwing 29 IP over 4 GS with a 2.48 ERA and 0 HR allowed in April. Then he got torched for 20 ER in just 18 IP with 6 HR allowed over his next 4 GS, and went on the DL. He was good Perkins again for his next 4 starts, allowing just 8 ER over 27 IP with 1 HR allowed, before he was torched again for 27 ER in 21.1 IP with 6 HR allowed over his final 5 GS. And never came back. Was it all physical? Or is he just that inconsistent?
Francisco Liriano - He never really got it going this year, mostly due to an inability to command his fastball. That led to nearly a BB every 2 IP, and a HR served up every 6-7 IP. There was some hope that he'd be a co-ace along with Baker, at least a solid #2. Not even close. And moving to the bullpen didn't make him any more likely to throw strikes or keep the ball in the yard.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
September (and a little October) Review
Twins Record: 21-11
Overall Record: 87-76, AL Central Champions by 1 game
After stubbornly hanging around the .500 mark for most of the season, the Twins looked to be headed for more of the same in September. A shocking loss to the White Sox on the 2nd after 2 were out in the 9th inning started a 3-7 skid that killed their late August momentum and dropped them back to 2 games under at 70-72. During that stretch, the Tigers surged to a 7-game lead in the division. And then the Twins found out that Justin Morneau was going to miss the last 3 weeks of the season with a stress fracture in his back. With all that weighing them down, the Twins finally found themselves.
Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer had played well all season. But when Cuddyer moved from RF to 1B he stepped it up a notch, racking up a .920 OPS with 10 HR and 29 RBI. Orlando Cabrera scored from the #2 spot in nearly every game, 28 times altogether. Nick Punto gave the Twins a .400+ OBP from the #9 spot, with 7/8 SB. Matt Tolbert, filling in at 3B for Joe Crede, hit .333 from the #8 spot. And Delmon Young found his power, slugging .544 with 18 RBI from the #7 spot. In short, the Twins finally had a lineup without holes, and it bludgeoned the opposition to the tune of 6.3 runs/game over the last 21 games of the season.
The pitching mostly maintained the steadiness it found at the end of August. Led by Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn, the starters reliably found their way into the 6th inning, where they were buoyed by superb relief work from new acquisitions Ron Mahay and Jon Rauch, a resurgent Jesse Crain, and the constant good work of Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, and (mostly) Joe Nathan.
With their backs against the wall for most of the month, the Twins played their best baseball of the season, catching the Tigers on the final weekend and defeating them in a play-in for the division championship. Their rapid defeat at the hands of the Yankees was utterly forgettable, but their incredible drive to the finish is something Twins fans can always remember fondly.
Grades this month go to hitters with at least 25 PA and pitchers with over 8.0 IP:
Just What We Needed
Joe Mauer - He wound up leading the league in OPS, so it's no surprise that he led the Twins in that category for September. The HRs tailed off, but with an OBP pushing .500, he was still quite an offensive force.
Denard Span - Quickly becoming one of the league's premiere leadoff men, Span followed his searing August with a strong September, hitting .317/.383/.442 with 23 R.
Michael Cuddyer - Perhaps the offensive MVP of the month. When a veteran steps up like that in the absence of a star like Morneau, that's leadership.
Jason Kubel - A typical month in Kubel's breakout campaign, he went berserk over the final weekend to finish Sept/Oct at .287/.358/.546 with 26 RBI.
Orlando Cabrera - He seemed to get stronger as the pressure increased. Cabrera was constantly crossing home plate in the final weeks of the season, finishing Sept/Oct at .315/.343/.477 with 4 HR.
Matt Tolbert - Called up when the rosters expanded, he found himself in the everyday lineup beginning on the 14th - the second day of the run. He stayed there because he hit .333 and played strong defense at 3B.
Delmon Young - Could this be a harbinger of things to come? Young's .340/.370/.544 line must have been what Bill Smith envisioned when he made that trade with TB.
Nick Punto - A #9 hitter with a .406 OBP is a very good thing.
Jesse Crain - After returning from his AAA demotion, Crain was as good as he's ever been, allowing only 8 H (0 HR) over 16 IP for a 1.00 WHIP and 1.13 ERA.
Jon Rauch - The big man had a fine introduction to the Junior Circuit, allowing just 3 ER in 14.2 IP (1.84 ERA), all of those coming in one appearance. The other 15 times he took the mound, he kept the score right where it was.
Ron Mahay - He alternated good and bad months all season, and the Twins were fortunate to catch a good one for their 5-week rental. He had a 2.16 ERA and 1.08 WHIP down the stretch.
Matt Guerrier - A far cry from last September, Guerrier finished off his bounce-back season with another steady month. He gave up 4 HR in 13.1 IP, but they were the only ER he allowed, good enough for a 2.70 ERA.
Nick Blackburn - Whatever he lost after the All-Star Break, he found it down the stretch. Blackburn gave the Twins 37 IP over 6 starts, with a 3.41 ERA and 1.14 WHIP (thanks to a 18/3 K/BB ratio).
Brian Duensing - My vote for pitching MVP of the month. Where the Twins had struggled for most of the year to find a solid 5th starter, Duensing delivered 35.2 IP over 6 starts with a 2.78 ERA. The comeback falls well short without that performance.
As Good As Could Be Expected
Jose Morales - About the only guy slumping in the final days of the season, Morales ultimately found his way back to the bench, but still hit a decent .269/.367/.308 for the month.
Jose Mijares - Stellar in September, Mijares really hit the wall when the calendar changed. Altogether, he delivered a solid 3.48 ERA with 10 K in 10.1 IP.
Scott Baker - I would have liked to have seen more innings from the de facto ace of the staff, but he gave the Twins a chance to win almost every time out and started two very big wins against the Tigers.
Joe Nathan - By his lofty standards it was a rather poor month for Nathan. Although, if you throw out that one horrendous outing against the White Sox, he gave up just 2 ER (both solo HR) on 7 H and 4 BB in 15 IP with 19 K, and converted 12 straight saves.
Carl Pavano - The Twins didn't bring in Pavano to be an ace, but rather to regularly pitch into the 6th inning and keep the team in the game. And, except for his start in Detroit, he did that, and the Twins won 5 of those 6 games.
Bobby Keppel - Though I continued to cringe every time he took the mound, Keppel managed to hold things together in middle relief up to the final weekend. Things got hairy then, but he was able to escape with the win in game #163.
Let Us Down
Brendan Harris - He had an opportunity to grab hold of 3B when Crede went down for the last time, but his poor hitting (.222/.311/.296) opened the door for Tolbert.
Justin Morneau - .077/.178/.179. I have to believe that the back injury can explain that.
Jeff Manship - He was pretty far over his head, having pitched just a handful of games at AAA before his call-up. But he was known for his control (2.8 BB/9 in the minors) and keeping the ball in the yard (0.4 HR/9), so to see him give up 12 BB and 4 HR in 24.2 IP was disappointing.
Francisco Liriano - Moved to the bullpen except for one not-so-great start against the Royals, Liriano didn't do particularly well there, either. He walked 7 in 9.1 IP. Will he ever throw strikes again?
Overall Record: 87-76, AL Central Champions by 1 game
After stubbornly hanging around the .500 mark for most of the season, the Twins looked to be headed for more of the same in September. A shocking loss to the White Sox on the 2nd after 2 were out in the 9th inning started a 3-7 skid that killed their late August momentum and dropped them back to 2 games under at 70-72. During that stretch, the Tigers surged to a 7-game lead in the division. And then the Twins found out that Justin Morneau was going to miss the last 3 weeks of the season with a stress fracture in his back. With all that weighing them down, the Twins finally found themselves.
Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer had played well all season. But when Cuddyer moved from RF to 1B he stepped it up a notch, racking up a .920 OPS with 10 HR and 29 RBI. Orlando Cabrera scored from the #2 spot in nearly every game, 28 times altogether. Nick Punto gave the Twins a .400+ OBP from the #9 spot, with 7/8 SB. Matt Tolbert, filling in at 3B for Joe Crede, hit .333 from the #8 spot. And Delmon Young found his power, slugging .544 with 18 RBI from the #7 spot. In short, the Twins finally had a lineup without holes, and it bludgeoned the opposition to the tune of 6.3 runs/game over the last 21 games of the season.
The pitching mostly maintained the steadiness it found at the end of August. Led by Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn, the starters reliably found their way into the 6th inning, where they were buoyed by superb relief work from new acquisitions Ron Mahay and Jon Rauch, a resurgent Jesse Crain, and the constant good work of Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, and (mostly) Joe Nathan.
With their backs against the wall for most of the month, the Twins played their best baseball of the season, catching the Tigers on the final weekend and defeating them in a play-in for the division championship. Their rapid defeat at the hands of the Yankees was utterly forgettable, but their incredible drive to the finish is something Twins fans can always remember fondly.
Grades this month go to hitters with at least 25 PA and pitchers with over 8.0 IP:
Just What We Needed
Joe Mauer - He wound up leading the league in OPS, so it's no surprise that he led the Twins in that category for September. The HRs tailed off, but with an OBP pushing .500, he was still quite an offensive force.
Denard Span - Quickly becoming one of the league's premiere leadoff men, Span followed his searing August with a strong September, hitting .317/.383/.442 with 23 R.
Michael Cuddyer - Perhaps the offensive MVP of the month. When a veteran steps up like that in the absence of a star like Morneau, that's leadership.
Jason Kubel - A typical month in Kubel's breakout campaign, he went berserk over the final weekend to finish Sept/Oct at .287/.358/.546 with 26 RBI.
Orlando Cabrera - He seemed to get stronger as the pressure increased. Cabrera was constantly crossing home plate in the final weeks of the season, finishing Sept/Oct at .315/.343/.477 with 4 HR.
Matt Tolbert - Called up when the rosters expanded, he found himself in the everyday lineup beginning on the 14th - the second day of the run. He stayed there because he hit .333 and played strong defense at 3B.
Delmon Young - Could this be a harbinger of things to come? Young's .340/.370/.544 line must have been what Bill Smith envisioned when he made that trade with TB.
Nick Punto - A #9 hitter with a .406 OBP is a very good thing.
Jesse Crain - After returning from his AAA demotion, Crain was as good as he's ever been, allowing only 8 H (0 HR) over 16 IP for a 1.00 WHIP and 1.13 ERA.
Jon Rauch - The big man had a fine introduction to the Junior Circuit, allowing just 3 ER in 14.2 IP (1.84 ERA), all of those coming in one appearance. The other 15 times he took the mound, he kept the score right where it was.
Ron Mahay - He alternated good and bad months all season, and the Twins were fortunate to catch a good one for their 5-week rental. He had a 2.16 ERA and 1.08 WHIP down the stretch.
Matt Guerrier - A far cry from last September, Guerrier finished off his bounce-back season with another steady month. He gave up 4 HR in 13.1 IP, but they were the only ER he allowed, good enough for a 2.70 ERA.
Nick Blackburn - Whatever he lost after the All-Star Break, he found it down the stretch. Blackburn gave the Twins 37 IP over 6 starts, with a 3.41 ERA and 1.14 WHIP (thanks to a 18/3 K/BB ratio).
Brian Duensing - My vote for pitching MVP of the month. Where the Twins had struggled for most of the year to find a solid 5th starter, Duensing delivered 35.2 IP over 6 starts with a 2.78 ERA. The comeback falls well short without that performance.
As Good As Could Be Expected
Jose Morales - About the only guy slumping in the final days of the season, Morales ultimately found his way back to the bench, but still hit a decent .269/.367/.308 for the month.
Jose Mijares - Stellar in September, Mijares really hit the wall when the calendar changed. Altogether, he delivered a solid 3.48 ERA with 10 K in 10.1 IP.
Scott Baker - I would have liked to have seen more innings from the de facto ace of the staff, but he gave the Twins a chance to win almost every time out and started two very big wins against the Tigers.
Joe Nathan - By his lofty standards it was a rather poor month for Nathan. Although, if you throw out that one horrendous outing against the White Sox, he gave up just 2 ER (both solo HR) on 7 H and 4 BB in 15 IP with 19 K, and converted 12 straight saves.
Carl Pavano - The Twins didn't bring in Pavano to be an ace, but rather to regularly pitch into the 6th inning and keep the team in the game. And, except for his start in Detroit, he did that, and the Twins won 5 of those 6 games.
Bobby Keppel - Though I continued to cringe every time he took the mound, Keppel managed to hold things together in middle relief up to the final weekend. Things got hairy then, but he was able to escape with the win in game #163.
Let Us Down
Brendan Harris - He had an opportunity to grab hold of 3B when Crede went down for the last time, but his poor hitting (.222/.311/.296) opened the door for Tolbert.
Justin Morneau - .077/.178/.179. I have to believe that the back injury can explain that.
Jeff Manship - He was pretty far over his head, having pitched just a handful of games at AAA before his call-up. But he was known for his control (2.8 BB/9 in the minors) and keeping the ball in the yard (0.4 HR/9), so to see him give up 12 BB and 4 HR in 24.2 IP was disappointing.
Francisco Liriano - Moved to the bullpen except for one not-so-great start against the Royals, Liriano didn't do particularly well there, either. He walked 7 in 9.1 IP. Will he ever throw strikes again?
Monday, October 12, 2009
Turn Out the Lights
I remember thinking last Tuesday how I wished the Twins' 2009 season could be like the movie "Major League:" come back to win the division on the last day of the season, kiss the girl, roll credits. Instead, before the champagne buzz had a chance to subside, they were thrust into the lion's den, the site of 4 rough May losses, against a team the Twins hadn't beaten all year. The Yankees were well rested, and their rotation was set up, beginning with their innings-munching, Cy Young, mega-contract ace, CC Sabathia. The Twins had to overcome all this minus their All-Star, former MVP 1B, their battle-tested 3B, and 3/5 of their original starting rotation, necessitating a Game 1 start from a guy who'd been in the Majors for only half a season, and a lineup that featured a handful of guys who had been bench players in August.
This mismatch was almost comically huge. Maybe that's why the result doesn't sting too badly. Did I really expect this Twins team to beat the Yankees? No, I don't think I did. But did I expect them to win at least one game? Yes. And, the way things developed, did I expect them to be able to win Game 2 and/or 3? Definitely.
The lack of precision that the Twins got away with against the Tigers was fatal against the Yanks. Overzealous baserunning cost the Twins a run in each of the last 2 games. Had Carlos Gomez prudently stopped at 2B, unwisely continued to 3B, or even gotten himself caught in a rundown, the Twins would have outscored the Yankees in the first 9 innings of Game 2. Had Nick Punto put the brakes on in the 8th inning of Game 3, the Twins could have gone into the 9th inning tied, and with momentum and the crowd behind them.
That might not have been enough, however, because the Twins' pitching, though rather good for most of the series, had a terrible habit of giving runs back as soon as the offense could produce them. The Twins scored first in each game, only to find Derek Jeter or A-Rod waiting to answer in the subsequent half-inning. Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano gave the Twins everything they could ask for, but the offense didn't show up. Delmon Young and Orlando Cabrera, so hot down the stretch, couldn't knock anyone in, and Jason Kubel struggled against the Yankees' LHP. Perhaps most egregiously, Joe Nathan couldn't get big outs. Yes, Mark Teixeira and A-Rod are great hitters, but Nathan is a great pitcher, just as reliably an All-Star, just as highly paid for his position. The 9th innings of Games 2 & 3 are why the Twins pay Nathan the big bucks, and he failed to do his job.
So ends the story of the 2009 Twins, a team that was mostly worse, but briefly, gloriously better than we had a right to expect them to be. I'll take another few days to savor the good things that happened in September, then analyze the whole season, then begin looking forward to 2010.
This mismatch was almost comically huge. Maybe that's why the result doesn't sting too badly. Did I really expect this Twins team to beat the Yankees? No, I don't think I did. But did I expect them to win at least one game? Yes. And, the way things developed, did I expect them to be able to win Game 2 and/or 3? Definitely.
The lack of precision that the Twins got away with against the Tigers was fatal against the Yanks. Overzealous baserunning cost the Twins a run in each of the last 2 games. Had Carlos Gomez prudently stopped at 2B, unwisely continued to 3B, or even gotten himself caught in a rundown, the Twins would have outscored the Yankees in the first 9 innings of Game 2. Had Nick Punto put the brakes on in the 8th inning of Game 3, the Twins could have gone into the 9th inning tied, and with momentum and the crowd behind them.
That might not have been enough, however, because the Twins' pitching, though rather good for most of the series, had a terrible habit of giving runs back as soon as the offense could produce them. The Twins scored first in each game, only to find Derek Jeter or A-Rod waiting to answer in the subsequent half-inning. Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano gave the Twins everything they could ask for, but the offense didn't show up. Delmon Young and Orlando Cabrera, so hot down the stretch, couldn't knock anyone in, and Jason Kubel struggled against the Yankees' LHP. Perhaps most egregiously, Joe Nathan couldn't get big outs. Yes, Mark Teixeira and A-Rod are great hitters, but Nathan is a great pitcher, just as reliably an All-Star, just as highly paid for his position. The 9th innings of Games 2 & 3 are why the Twins pay Nathan the big bucks, and he failed to do his job.
So ends the story of the 2009 Twins, a team that was mostly worse, but briefly, gloriously better than we had a right to expect them to be. I'll take another few days to savor the good things that happened in September, then analyze the whole season, then begin looking forward to 2010.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Time Warp
Twins 6, Tigers 5 (12 innings)
I've been running around asking my friends here in LA: "Were you watching the 1991 Worlds Series? No? Because every game was just like that!"
Well, 5 of the 7, anyway. When Alexi Casilla was thrown out at the plate in the bottom of the 10th, it was apparent that it was going to take an extraordinary effort from somebody to finish things off. Each team had to play most of the extra frames with defensive subs (Carlos Gomez, Clete Thomas) in for their 2nd-best hitters (Jason Kubel, Magglio Ordonez), with pinch runners (Alexi Casilla, Dan Kelly) in for their DHs (Brendan Harris, Carlos Guillen). And those scrub subs wound up getting some of the biggest hits of the game.
I had said that Scott Baker needed to keep the ball in the yard to give the Twins a chance. He didn't, and it's especially galling to me that the HR he allowed to Miguel Cabrera came on an 0-2 pitch, just after he'd gotten Cabrera to swing and miss at a breaking ball down. Why that pitch was anywhere near the strike zone, let alone up, I don't understand. The Twins pitchers did a terrible job of finishing guys off after they got 2 strikes on them. That's not going to take them very far against the Yankees.
Unlike the the Yankees, the Tigers only had a couple of bats to worry about in their lineup: Ordonez and Cabrera. Were the Twins taking extra care with them? Each had 2 H, a HR, and 2 RBI. As keyed up as Cabrera was over his adventures last weekend, I don't think it was necessary to throw him anything inside the margins of the strike zone. Again, more precision will be required vs. the Yankees.
I think Gardy panicked a bit going to the bullpen in the 7th. I was already thinking that extras might be likely, and he ended up burning 2 of his best relievers (Jon Rauch, Jose Mijares) on just 3 hitters. Yes, the leadoff walk to Brandon Inge was a bad thing, but Gerald Laird is a RH batter, and not a very good one. Why not let Baker face him and his impending bunt attempt? Bring in Mijares to turn around Ramon Santiago, if you want, but then you've still got Rauch to work a full inning (or 2) later on. Gardy's use of the bullpen in the 7th was the reason that Bobby Keppel was on the mound in the 11th and 12th.
But then Keppel, the 2nd-weakest guy available in the 'pen (I'd put him ahead of Manship, at this point), wriggled out of a bases-loaded, 1-out jam. Incredible. And in the bottom half, we found ourselves right where we were 53 weeks ago: the division on the line, the winning run in scoring position in extra innings, a man intentionally walked to get to Casilla. And, just as he did against Bobby Jenks last September, Casilla delivered, despite having just 19 PA in the last 5 weeks. Awesome.
It was a great game, to be sure. But the Twins will have to play even better if they're going to beat the Yankees.
I've been running around asking my friends here in LA: "Were you watching the 1991 Worlds Series? No? Because every game was just like that!"
Well, 5 of the 7, anyway. When Alexi Casilla was thrown out at the plate in the bottom of the 10th, it was apparent that it was going to take an extraordinary effort from somebody to finish things off. Each team had to play most of the extra frames with defensive subs (Carlos Gomez, Clete Thomas) in for their 2nd-best hitters (Jason Kubel, Magglio Ordonez), with pinch runners (Alexi Casilla, Dan Kelly) in for their DHs (Brendan Harris, Carlos Guillen). And those scrub subs wound up getting some of the biggest hits of the game.
I had said that Scott Baker needed to keep the ball in the yard to give the Twins a chance. He didn't, and it's especially galling to me that the HR he allowed to Miguel Cabrera came on an 0-2 pitch, just after he'd gotten Cabrera to swing and miss at a breaking ball down. Why that pitch was anywhere near the strike zone, let alone up, I don't understand. The Twins pitchers did a terrible job of finishing guys off after they got 2 strikes on them. That's not going to take them very far against the Yankees.
Unlike the the Yankees, the Tigers only had a couple of bats to worry about in their lineup: Ordonez and Cabrera. Were the Twins taking extra care with them? Each had 2 H, a HR, and 2 RBI. As keyed up as Cabrera was over his adventures last weekend, I don't think it was necessary to throw him anything inside the margins of the strike zone. Again, more precision will be required vs. the Yankees.
I think Gardy panicked a bit going to the bullpen in the 7th. I was already thinking that extras might be likely, and he ended up burning 2 of his best relievers (Jon Rauch, Jose Mijares) on just 3 hitters. Yes, the leadoff walk to Brandon Inge was a bad thing, but Gerald Laird is a RH batter, and not a very good one. Why not let Baker face him and his impending bunt attempt? Bring in Mijares to turn around Ramon Santiago, if you want, but then you've still got Rauch to work a full inning (or 2) later on. Gardy's use of the bullpen in the 7th was the reason that Bobby Keppel was on the mound in the 11th and 12th.
But then Keppel, the 2nd-weakest guy available in the 'pen (I'd put him ahead of Manship, at this point), wriggled out of a bases-loaded, 1-out jam. Incredible. And in the bottom half, we found ourselves right where we were 53 weeks ago: the division on the line, the winning run in scoring position in extra innings, a man intentionally walked to get to Casilla. And, just as he did against Bobby Jenks last September, Casilla delivered, despite having just 19 PA in the last 5 weeks. Awesome.
It was a great game, to be sure. But the Twins will have to play even better if they're going to beat the Yankees.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
10th Split: 13-4
Overall Record: 86-76
Tied for 1st in AL Central
Previous splits: 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, 8-8, 9-8, 7-9, 7-9, 9-7, 9-7
Hmm, which one of these things is not like the others?
For 9/10ths of the season, the Twins were one of the most stubbornly .500 teams I've ever seen, never falling more than 6 games below or rising more than 3 games above the break-even mark. Whether it was holes in the lineup, weak starting pitching, or shaky bullpen work, the Twins' impressive strengths (Mauer, Span, Kubel) were never enough to do more than cancel out their glaring weaknesses.
But over the final 3 weeks of the season, everything came together. Orlando Cabrera scored in all but 1 game from the #2 spot. Delmon Young, Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto all hit over .300, providing consistent offense from the bottom of the order for the first time all year. Michael Cuddyer was having a solid year, but he found another gear, hitting 7 HR with 19 RBI over the last 17 games. Add that to the guys I already mentioned, and suddenly the Twins were putting up over 6 runs/game, failing to score at least 5 in only 5 of 17 games.
The starting pitching was good enough for that much run support. They were led, as they were in the first half, by Nick Blackburn, who pitched into the 7th inning in each of his last 4 starts, with a 1.65 ERA and 18/1 K/BB ratio. The bullpen was not so cozy, as big leads frequently turned into save situations, but most of the trouble came from middle relief allowing inherited runners to score. Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Ron Mahay, Matt Guerrier and Joe Nathan combined to allow 5 ER of their own over this split, and Jose Mijares had only allowed 1 before his final appearance on Saturday. So let's bring those guys in with the bases empty!
The Twins' defense committed 10 errors over this split - 4 in the ugly finale at Comerica last week. OC seems to let something get away from him almost every day at SS, and Brendan Harris had a terrible time with his limited opportunities at 3B. I'm impressed that Cuddyer has played so well at 1B, where he made several errors earlier in the year on Justin Morneau's off days. Overall, if the Twins can play an errorless game today, they'll finish tied with Toronto for the fewest E in the AL, and will have allowed just 39 unearned runs, a far cry from the 70 they yielded in 2008.
The Twins have lost just 4 times over their last 20 ball games, but 3 of those came at the hands of the Tigers. However, the Twins were 7-2 vs. the Tigers at the Dome this year, and have won 9 out 10 at home overall. The Twins have surged to the finish, the Tigers have sputtered. If Scott Baker can keep the Tigers in the yard, things should go well.
Bold Prediction: Today's game will not be the last the Twins play at the Metrodome.
Tied for 1st in AL Central
Previous splits: 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, 8-8, 9-8, 7-9, 7-9, 9-7, 9-7
Hmm, which one of these things is not like the others?
For 9/10ths of the season, the Twins were one of the most stubbornly .500 teams I've ever seen, never falling more than 6 games below or rising more than 3 games above the break-even mark. Whether it was holes in the lineup, weak starting pitching, or shaky bullpen work, the Twins' impressive strengths (Mauer, Span, Kubel) were never enough to do more than cancel out their glaring weaknesses.
But over the final 3 weeks of the season, everything came together. Orlando Cabrera scored in all but 1 game from the #2 spot. Delmon Young, Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto all hit over .300, providing consistent offense from the bottom of the order for the first time all year. Michael Cuddyer was having a solid year, but he found another gear, hitting 7 HR with 19 RBI over the last 17 games. Add that to the guys I already mentioned, and suddenly the Twins were putting up over 6 runs/game, failing to score at least 5 in only 5 of 17 games.
The starting pitching was good enough for that much run support. They were led, as they were in the first half, by Nick Blackburn, who pitched into the 7th inning in each of his last 4 starts, with a 1.65 ERA and 18/1 K/BB ratio. The bullpen was not so cozy, as big leads frequently turned into save situations, but most of the trouble came from middle relief allowing inherited runners to score. Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Ron Mahay, Matt Guerrier and Joe Nathan combined to allow 5 ER of their own over this split, and Jose Mijares had only allowed 1 before his final appearance on Saturday. So let's bring those guys in with the bases empty!
The Twins' defense committed 10 errors over this split - 4 in the ugly finale at Comerica last week. OC seems to let something get away from him almost every day at SS, and Brendan Harris had a terrible time with his limited opportunities at 3B. I'm impressed that Cuddyer has played so well at 1B, where he made several errors earlier in the year on Justin Morneau's off days. Overall, if the Twins can play an errorless game today, they'll finish tied with Toronto for the fewest E in the AL, and will have allowed just 39 unearned runs, a far cry from the 70 they yielded in 2008.
The Twins have lost just 4 times over their last 20 ball games, but 3 of those came at the hands of the Tigers. However, the Twins were 7-2 vs. the Tigers at the Dome this year, and have won 9 out 10 at home overall. The Twins have surged to the finish, the Tigers have sputtered. If Scott Baker can keep the Tigers in the yard, things should go well.
Bold Prediction: Today's game will not be the last the Twins play at the Metrodome.
Monday, September 28, 2009
The Playoffs Started Yesterday
After nearly 5 and a half months of mediocrity, the Twins have suddenly decided to be awesome. They've unleashed an 11-2 run, averaging 6.2 runs/game, and all without their All-Star, former MVP cleanup hitter. Thanks to Michael Cuddyer, who stepped into the infield and has hit .370 with 6 HR and 19 RBI in Morneau's absence, and also the bottom of the order, where Delmon Young and Matt Tolbert have taken advantage of everyday playing time by hitting over .300 for the month, joining Nick Punto in that respect. Couple that with continued strong play from Denard Span and Joe Mauer and solid contributions from Orlando Cabrera and Jason Kubel, and the Twins are slugging their opponents into submission.
It was apparent a couple of weeks ago that the Twins were going to have to take at least 5 out of 7 from Detroit this month in order to have a shot at the division title. That means that they have to win 3 out of 4 at Comerica Park this week. While splitting the series won't eliminate them, it will force them to lean rather heavily on White Sox to play a great series on the road. Not holding my breath there. So I'm thinking about this like it's a best-of-five playoff series, and the Twins have already lost game 1. Playoff teams bounce back from losing game 1 just about every year, so it's doable. Unfortunately for the Twins, they have to play all of the remaining games on the road.
The match-ups aren't terrible. On Wednesday and Thursday, the Twins send their #1 and #2 starters against Detroit's #4 and #5 guys. Nick Blackburn has big-game experience from last fall, and Brian Duensing has been money as a starter. If the Twins can at least split the first 2 games of the series, they'll be in good position to get wins in the last 2. One thing I hope they've learned from last weekend: take care of Gerald Laird - don't try to steal on him, and don't walk him. Just about every big inning the Tigers have had this year came when the terrible hitters at the bottom of their lineup got on base.
Every spring, I hope that the Twins will still be playing meaningful games the last week of September. As they have most every year this decade, the Twins have fulfilled my wish.
By the way, this is how big a Twins fan I am: I woke up this morning, turned on my computer, and thought, "Oh, yeah, the Vikings played yesterday. I wonder how they did..."
It was apparent a couple of weeks ago that the Twins were going to have to take at least 5 out of 7 from Detroit this month in order to have a shot at the division title. That means that they have to win 3 out of 4 at Comerica Park this week. While splitting the series won't eliminate them, it will force them to lean rather heavily on White Sox to play a great series on the road. Not holding my breath there. So I'm thinking about this like it's a best-of-five playoff series, and the Twins have already lost game 1. Playoff teams bounce back from losing game 1 just about every year, so it's doable. Unfortunately for the Twins, they have to play all of the remaining games on the road.
The match-ups aren't terrible. On Wednesday and Thursday, the Twins send their #1 and #2 starters against Detroit's #4 and #5 guys. Nick Blackburn has big-game experience from last fall, and Brian Duensing has been money as a starter. If the Twins can at least split the first 2 games of the series, they'll be in good position to get wins in the last 2. One thing I hope they've learned from last weekend: take care of Gerald Laird - don't try to steal on him, and don't walk him. Just about every big inning the Tigers have had this year came when the terrible hitters at the bottom of their lineup got on base.
Every spring, I hope that the Twins will still be playing meaningful games the last week of September. As they have most every year this decade, the Twins have fulfilled my wish.
By the way, this is how big a Twins fan I am: I woke up this morning, turned on my computer, and thought, "Oh, yeah, the Vikings played yesterday. I wonder how they did..."
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
9th Split: 9-7
Overall Record: 73-72
2nd in AL Central by 4.5 games
Previous splits: 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, 8-8, 9-8, 7-9, 7-9, 9-7
Well, what do you know? The Twins delivered their 9th straight split within one win of .500, and are, not coincidentally, one win over .500 after 145 games. I've been keeping track of splits for most of this decade, and I've never seen anything close to this level of consistency. There's almost always a really bad stretch or a really good stretch. At this point, I don't know that this team has it in them do be anything but mediocre.
Sure, they were just one out away from one more win against the White Sox before Joe Nathan had the worst collapse of his Twins career. And don't forget that, in the 6th inning of that game, the umpires reversed a (correct) call that had awarded Michael Cuddyer a leaping catch at the wall in RF. So, when you think about it, the Twins pitchers and defenders actually got 27 outs without the White Sox scoring. But, that's just the kind of season they've been having.
The loss of Justin Morneau for the last three weeks of the season would seem to cement the Twins' dismal prospects. But, whether because of the sore back or his normal late-summer doldrums, he was hitting just .174/.275/.322 since August 1st. That wasn't quite as bad as what Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert were doing out of the #2 slot earlier in the season, but it's brutal non-production from a cleanup hitter, particularly when Denard Span and Joe Mauer are constantly on base. Losing Morneau means that Jason Kubel and Cuddyer can move up into those RBI spots, and they've already been cashing them in. Meanwhile, Morneau's AB will be made up down in the order by one of the extra OF, who shouldn't have any trouble at least matching what Justin was able to do in recent weeks. The payoff has been immediate, as the Twins have scored 5 or more runs in each game since Morneau went on the shelf.
Pitching was very good in this split - the Twins averaged just 3.5 runs allowed per game. The defense was strong as well, committing just 8 errors (4 in one horrible game in Cleveland) for 66 overall, the lowest total in the AL. They allowed only 2 unearned runs (also in that awful Cleveland game), raising their season total to 33, still second-lowest in the AL. The rotation seems to have stabilized (except for Jeff Manship, who will be skipped as much as possible from here on in), and the additions of Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay seem to have helped to quiet things in the bullpen.
The Twins have 7 games left with Detroit, 6 with KC, and 3 with Chicago. None of those teams has a positive run differential. Conditions are as ideal as they're ever going to get for the Twins to finally have a soundly winning split. Can the Tigers falter enough to give the division away? That will largely depend on how much damage the Twins can do to them head-to-head. If the Twins can win at least 5 of the 7 games, they stand a reasonably good chance of sending the Tigers to something like a 6-11 finish while the Twins go 11-6. They haven't been able to take care of business all season - it's now or never.
Bold prediction: They're going to come up just short.
2nd in AL Central by 4.5 games
Previous splits: 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, 8-8, 9-8, 7-9, 7-9, 9-7
Well, what do you know? The Twins delivered their 9th straight split within one win of .500, and are, not coincidentally, one win over .500 after 145 games. I've been keeping track of splits for most of this decade, and I've never seen anything close to this level of consistency. There's almost always a really bad stretch or a really good stretch. At this point, I don't know that this team has it in them do be anything but mediocre.
Sure, they were just one out away from one more win against the White Sox before Joe Nathan had the worst collapse of his Twins career. And don't forget that, in the 6th inning of that game, the umpires reversed a (correct) call that had awarded Michael Cuddyer a leaping catch at the wall in RF. So, when you think about it, the Twins pitchers and defenders actually got 27 outs without the White Sox scoring. But, that's just the kind of season they've been having.
The loss of Justin Morneau for the last three weeks of the season would seem to cement the Twins' dismal prospects. But, whether because of the sore back or his normal late-summer doldrums, he was hitting just .174/.275/.322 since August 1st. That wasn't quite as bad as what Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert were doing out of the #2 slot earlier in the season, but it's brutal non-production from a cleanup hitter, particularly when Denard Span and Joe Mauer are constantly on base. Losing Morneau means that Jason Kubel and Cuddyer can move up into those RBI spots, and they've already been cashing them in. Meanwhile, Morneau's AB will be made up down in the order by one of the extra OF, who shouldn't have any trouble at least matching what Justin was able to do in recent weeks. The payoff has been immediate, as the Twins have scored 5 or more runs in each game since Morneau went on the shelf.
Pitching was very good in this split - the Twins averaged just 3.5 runs allowed per game. The defense was strong as well, committing just 8 errors (4 in one horrible game in Cleveland) for 66 overall, the lowest total in the AL. They allowed only 2 unearned runs (also in that awful Cleveland game), raising their season total to 33, still second-lowest in the AL. The rotation seems to have stabilized (except for Jeff Manship, who will be skipped as much as possible from here on in), and the additions of Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay seem to have helped to quiet things in the bullpen.
The Twins have 7 games left with Detroit, 6 with KC, and 3 with Chicago. None of those teams has a positive run differential. Conditions are as ideal as they're ever going to get for the Twins to finally have a soundly winning split. Can the Tigers falter enough to give the division away? That will largely depend on how much damage the Twins can do to them head-to-head. If the Twins can win at least 5 of the 7 games, they stand a reasonably good chance of sending the Tigers to something like a 6-11 finish while the Twins go 11-6. They haven't been able to take care of business all season - it's now or never.
Bold prediction: They're going to come up just short.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
August Review
Twins Record: 14-14
Overall Record: 66-65, 2nd in AL Central by 3.5 games
The Twins took their season-long Jekyll and Hyde act to new extremes in the month of August. In the first half, they went 4-11 while allowing 6.3 R/game and going just 4-8 in games in which they scored 4 or more runs. Those 4 wins came by a combined score of 39-2. If my California math is correct, that means that the Twins allowed 8.5 R/game in those 11 losses. The starting pitchers were being consistently demolished in the early innings, leading to extensive innings from a middle-relief corps that was so-so at best. With 3/5 of the Fab Five on the DL by mid-month, it looked as though the Twins would never find enough to arms to hold down the opposition, despite the valiant efforts of a still productive offense.
The balance shifted on the 18th, when Joe Mauer and Delmon Young (of all people) led the Twins back from a 5-0 deficit to beat a very good Rangers team 9-6. Beginning with that game, the Twins are 10-3 over their last 13. The pitching has calmed down to a great extent allowing 4.3 R/game and delivering 7 QS and 7 saves after just 5 QS and 0 saves in the first half. That shows that the team has been finding a way to win close games again. After enduring their worst sustained stretch of baseball this season, the Twins are now in the midst of their best stretch.
The cast of characters has greatly changed, with Orlando Cabrera now at SS and #2 in the order, and Carl Pavano filling Kevin Slowey's spot in the rotation. The bullpen was recently augmented with veterans Ron Mahay and Jon Rauch. And rookies Brian Duensing and Jeff Manship have stepped into the back-end slots vacated by the injured Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins. As shaky as the two lefties have been for most of the season, I doubt that the Twins will be able to make up their deficit with the Tigers without at least one of them supplanting those youngsters. Duensing hasn't had a strong enough track record at AAA, and Manship hasn't had enough innings there for me to think that either of them can give the Twins the 6 or so QS they're going to need down the stretch.
The offense has been more or less rolling since May. In August the Twins were 4th in the AL in scoring and 5th in OPS. If they can continue to put up 5.3 R/game for the rest of the regular season, they should be able to come in over .500, given the relatively weak competition they'll be facing from here on out. The fielding has remained pretty steady, as well, still among the top 2 or 3 in fewest errors and unearned runs allowed. The Twins' destiny for 2009 is in the hands of their depleted, then restocked pitching staff. As I've been saying for awhile, if they can just deliver average run prevention, this team still has a shot.
Grades this month will go to players with at least 25 PA and pitchers with at least 10 IP.
Getting It Done
Joe Mauer - Seems like he's always at the top of this list. The league's most awesome player turned in another astounding month, hitting .391/.449/.652 with 8 HR, and even threw in 3 SB!
Denard Span - In his best month as a big-leaguer so far, Span hit .375/.458/.473 and scored 18 R out of the leadoff spot.
Jason Kubel - The league's best DH this year, Kubel continued to roll, hitting .307/.380/.511 with 4 HR and 19 RBI, driving in some of the runs that Justin Morneau missed.
Michael Cuddyer - Tied with Span for second on the team with 53 TB in August. Cuddyer needs to walk more often, but is on his way to setting some career highs and justifying the contract he signed prior to last season.
Mike Redmond - Just when I thought the old man couldn't do better than his July numbers, he goes 7 for 22 with a double and a triple!
Jose Mijares - At last, he got his control under...control, walking just 3 batters in 15.1 IP. He served up a couple more HR, but had 9.39 K/9 and 0.78 WHIP for the month.
Scott Baker - Suddenly, Baker became the Twins' only reliable starter, and he responded by walking just 5 in 39.2 IP for a 0.96 WHIP. Unfortunately, his only poor start of the month was costly, as he allowed 6 ER in 4.2 IP against the Tigers in a game where the offense scored 6 R for him. The race would be a lot tighter if Baker had been his typical, dominant self that day.
Matt Guerrier - He was a little more hittable than in previous months, but Guerrier continues to look like the brilliant setup man he was in 2007 and the first half of 2008.
Brian Duensing - His 2 W are the reason this wasn't a losing month for the Twins. For a rookie with his recent minor league track record to have put up a 3.70 ERA and 8.14 K/9 is a most pleasant surprise.
So Far, So Good
Brendan Harris - He's done a solid job of filling in for the oft-injured Joe Crede, hitting .288/.351/.385 in August while making most of the plays at 3rd base.
Alexi Casilla - A couple of doubles, a couple of triples, a .317 OBP, 3 SB and some sick defensive plays. I'll take it from the #9 spot.
Delmon Young - .262/.279/.476 isn't earth-shattering, but I have to appreciate that the guy managed to hit 5 HR with 15 RBI in just 84 AB this month. Maybe this is as good as it gets...
Orlando Cabrera - He started out as well as he possibly could have, so it's a bit of a let-down to see his totals for the month at .658 OPS. He's made rather a lot of errors at SS. But, then again, I don't think anyone should have expected much different.
Jesse Crain - 0 HR allowed in 10 IP, a 1.18 WHIP, 3.55 ERA and 9.95 K/9. One more month of that will work out just fine, thank you.
Carl Pavano - 6 or more IP/start, low BB/9, an ERA in the low 4.00s - this is what I thought we'd be getting from Slowey right now, so I'm glad Pavano has been able to step in and fill that slot.
Need To Pick It Up
Justin Morneau - He seems to lose it in August every year. .220/.319/.390 with 3 HR and 13 RBI is pedestrian - well, it was surpassed by Delmon Young, for crying out loud! One more good month, please...
Carlos Gomez - I think he's improved a lot over last season, but he's also capable of more than .259/.295/.362 with 2 SB. And 15 K in 58 AB feels like a regression.
Nick Punto - It's undoubtedly for the best that he's out of the everyday lineup. It seems like he can't even hit a fastball right now.
Joe Crede - Maybe the nagging injuries and inconsistent playing time caught up to him. No amount of stellar defense is worth .192/.276/.288 from your 3rd baseman.
Nick Blackburn - No one embodies the split personality of this month better than Blackburn, who allowed 12 ER in 10.1 IP in his first three starts, then finished with 7 ER in 19.2 IP over his final 3. We need good Blackburn for the rest of the season.
Bobby Keppel - He's just so hittable - as one might expect from a journeyman AAA reliever, he's overmatched in the Show.
Francisco Liriano - He just couldn't find the command of his fastball. I hope this DL stint is doing him some good, physically and mentally, because I don't think this team can do very much against good teams without Liriano contributing.
Anthony Swarzak - Eek! He was doing so well, then 33 H, including 8 HR in just 13.1 IP over 4 starts. Get yourself together, man!
Overall Record: 66-65, 2nd in AL Central by 3.5 games
The Twins took their season-long Jekyll and Hyde act to new extremes in the month of August. In the first half, they went 4-11 while allowing 6.3 R/game and going just 4-8 in games in which they scored 4 or more runs. Those 4 wins came by a combined score of 39-2. If my California math is correct, that means that the Twins allowed 8.5 R/game in those 11 losses. The starting pitchers were being consistently demolished in the early innings, leading to extensive innings from a middle-relief corps that was so-so at best. With 3/5 of the Fab Five on the DL by mid-month, it looked as though the Twins would never find enough to arms to hold down the opposition, despite the valiant efforts of a still productive offense.
The balance shifted on the 18th, when Joe Mauer and Delmon Young (of all people) led the Twins back from a 5-0 deficit to beat a very good Rangers team 9-6. Beginning with that game, the Twins are 10-3 over their last 13. The pitching has calmed down to a great extent allowing 4.3 R/game and delivering 7 QS and 7 saves after just 5 QS and 0 saves in the first half. That shows that the team has been finding a way to win close games again. After enduring their worst sustained stretch of baseball this season, the Twins are now in the midst of their best stretch.
The cast of characters has greatly changed, with Orlando Cabrera now at SS and #2 in the order, and Carl Pavano filling Kevin Slowey's spot in the rotation. The bullpen was recently augmented with veterans Ron Mahay and Jon Rauch. And rookies Brian Duensing and Jeff Manship have stepped into the back-end slots vacated by the injured Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins. As shaky as the two lefties have been for most of the season, I doubt that the Twins will be able to make up their deficit with the Tigers without at least one of them supplanting those youngsters. Duensing hasn't had a strong enough track record at AAA, and Manship hasn't had enough innings there for me to think that either of them can give the Twins the 6 or so QS they're going to need down the stretch.
The offense has been more or less rolling since May. In August the Twins were 4th in the AL in scoring and 5th in OPS. If they can continue to put up 5.3 R/game for the rest of the regular season, they should be able to come in over .500, given the relatively weak competition they'll be facing from here on out. The fielding has remained pretty steady, as well, still among the top 2 or 3 in fewest errors and unearned runs allowed. The Twins' destiny for 2009 is in the hands of their depleted, then restocked pitching staff. As I've been saying for awhile, if they can just deliver average run prevention, this team still has a shot.
Grades this month will go to players with at least 25 PA and pitchers with at least 10 IP.
Getting It Done
Joe Mauer - Seems like he's always at the top of this list. The league's most awesome player turned in another astounding month, hitting .391/.449/.652 with 8 HR, and even threw in 3 SB!
Denard Span - In his best month as a big-leaguer so far, Span hit .375/.458/.473 and scored 18 R out of the leadoff spot.
Jason Kubel - The league's best DH this year, Kubel continued to roll, hitting .307/.380/.511 with 4 HR and 19 RBI, driving in some of the runs that Justin Morneau missed.
Michael Cuddyer - Tied with Span for second on the team with 53 TB in August. Cuddyer needs to walk more often, but is on his way to setting some career highs and justifying the contract he signed prior to last season.
Mike Redmond - Just when I thought the old man couldn't do better than his July numbers, he goes 7 for 22 with a double and a triple!
Jose Mijares - At last, he got his control under...control, walking just 3 batters in 15.1 IP. He served up a couple more HR, but had 9.39 K/9 and 0.78 WHIP for the month.
Scott Baker - Suddenly, Baker became the Twins' only reliable starter, and he responded by walking just 5 in 39.2 IP for a 0.96 WHIP. Unfortunately, his only poor start of the month was costly, as he allowed 6 ER in 4.2 IP against the Tigers in a game where the offense scored 6 R for him. The race would be a lot tighter if Baker had been his typical, dominant self that day.
Matt Guerrier - He was a little more hittable than in previous months, but Guerrier continues to look like the brilliant setup man he was in 2007 and the first half of 2008.
Brian Duensing - His 2 W are the reason this wasn't a losing month for the Twins. For a rookie with his recent minor league track record to have put up a 3.70 ERA and 8.14 K/9 is a most pleasant surprise.
So Far, So Good
Brendan Harris - He's done a solid job of filling in for the oft-injured Joe Crede, hitting .288/.351/.385 in August while making most of the plays at 3rd base.
Alexi Casilla - A couple of doubles, a couple of triples, a .317 OBP, 3 SB and some sick defensive plays. I'll take it from the #9 spot.
Delmon Young - .262/.279/.476 isn't earth-shattering, but I have to appreciate that the guy managed to hit 5 HR with 15 RBI in just 84 AB this month. Maybe this is as good as it gets...
Orlando Cabrera - He started out as well as he possibly could have, so it's a bit of a let-down to see his totals for the month at .658 OPS. He's made rather a lot of errors at SS. But, then again, I don't think anyone should have expected much different.
Jesse Crain - 0 HR allowed in 10 IP, a 1.18 WHIP, 3.55 ERA and 9.95 K/9. One more month of that will work out just fine, thank you.
Carl Pavano - 6 or more IP/start, low BB/9, an ERA in the low 4.00s - this is what I thought we'd be getting from Slowey right now, so I'm glad Pavano has been able to step in and fill that slot.
Need To Pick It Up
Justin Morneau - He seems to lose it in August every year. .220/.319/.390 with 3 HR and 13 RBI is pedestrian - well, it was surpassed by Delmon Young, for crying out loud! One more good month, please...
Carlos Gomez - I think he's improved a lot over last season, but he's also capable of more than .259/.295/.362 with 2 SB. And 15 K in 58 AB feels like a regression.
Nick Punto - It's undoubtedly for the best that he's out of the everyday lineup. It seems like he can't even hit a fastball right now.
Joe Crede - Maybe the nagging injuries and inconsistent playing time caught up to him. No amount of stellar defense is worth .192/.276/.288 from your 3rd baseman.
Nick Blackburn - No one embodies the split personality of this month better than Blackburn, who allowed 12 ER in 10.1 IP in his first three starts, then finished with 7 ER in 19.2 IP over his final 3. We need good Blackburn for the rest of the season.
Bobby Keppel - He's just so hittable - as one might expect from a journeyman AAA reliever, he's overmatched in the Show.
Francisco Liriano - He just couldn't find the command of his fastball. I hope this DL stint is doing him some good, physically and mentally, because I don't think this team can do very much against good teams without Liriano contributing.
Anthony Swarzak - Eek! He was doing so well, then 33 H, including 8 HR in just 13.1 IP over 4 starts. Get yourself together, man!
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