Earlier this week we got news of two big events on the prospect front. The Arizona Fall League wrapped up with the Phoenix Desert Dogs (the team the Twins' farmhands play for) winning their 5th straight championship, and Baseball America released its list of the top 10 Twins prospects. Last year, those same events centered around Nick Blackburn, who won the championship game of the AFL and received the #1 prospect ranking from BA. He went on to contribute greatly to the Twins' unexpected success in 2008. Will any of this year's crop have something to offer in 2009?
Baseball America's Top 10 Twins Prospects
#1 - Aaron Hicks - The 14th overall pick in this year's draft, Hicks had a terrific debut in rookie ball, hitting .318/.409/.491 with an excellent 28/32 BB/K ratio and 12/14 SB. Baseball America gave him top marks among Twins' prospects for plate discipline, athleticism, outfield defense and outfield arm. Certainly an exciting player to watch, but he's only just turned 19, so I think even a meteoric rise through the organization wouldn't see him in a Twins uniform until 2011.
#2 - Ben Revere - The Twins' first-round choice in 2007, Revere also had a stupendous 2008. He flirted with .400 for much of the season in Beloit before settling for .379/.433/.497 with a 27/31 BB/K ratio and 44/57 SB. As well as he's playing, the Twins don't seem to be in any hurry with him, so, like Hicks, I wouldn't expect to see him in MN for at least 3 more years.
#3 - Wilson Ramos - Joe Mauer's heir-apparent (unless they sign him to an extension right away), Ramos has been remarkably consistent through his first 3 professional seasons. In the Gulf Coast League, he hit .286/.339/.435, in Beloit he hit .291/.345/.438, and in Fort Myers he hit .288/.344/.434. He's got good pop and is an excellent defender. But, again, the Twins have been content to give him a full season at each level so far, meaning we can expect to see him in 2011.
#4 - Jose Mijares - An offseason auto accident broke Mijares' elbow, setting him back in 2008. He progressed through 4 levels as he regained his groove, including an impressive September call-up in which he allowed just 1 ER on 3 H in 10.1 IP. Overall for 2008 he had a 1.91 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 47 IP, with a 8.81 K/9. With Pat Neshek out and Dennys Reyes likely cut loose, Mijares would have to have a ghastly spring training to keep from making the team. If he's healthy, he should give the Twins 60-70 IP in 2009, and could be one of the keys to their season.
#5 - Danny Valencia - This is a pretty impressive place for a 19th-round pick to find himself. Valencia has earned his way up the prospect list by hitting .305/.361/.485 over 4 levels since he was drafted 2.5 years ago. His numbers took a hit when he was promoted to AA this summer - he hit .289/.334/.485 in 69 games in New Britain. He kept his slugging up with 10 HR, but his BB/K rate got way out of wack - before AA, it had been about 1/2, but it was about 1/4 in those 69 games. Not to worry. Valencia put up a similar .291/.332/.422 line with a 1/3 BB/K ratio in his first 61 games in Fort Myers, then blew up to .336/.402/.518 with about a 2/5 BB/K rate in his first 60 games there this year. That alone suggests to me that he will be spending at least the first 2 months of 2009 in New Britain.
#6 - Anthony Swarzak - He's landed somewhere in the #5-#7 range on this list for 5 straight years. Despite having his worst career ERA, WHIP, K/9 and HR/9 through 20 starts at New Britain, he was promoted to Rochester, where he allowed just 9 ER on 41 H over 45 IP in 7 starts (6.1 IP/start). His K/9 dropped even further, however, so he's got an adjustment to make. He made 40 starts at A+ and 34 at AA before advancing, so I'd be surprised if he turns up in a Twins uniform before September of next year.
#7 - Shooter Hunt - The 31st overall pick in this summer's draft (thanks to the departure of Torii Hunter - Hunt/Hunter!), Hunt demolished the competition in Rookie ball. In 19 IP, he allowed just 1 ER on 4 H and 6 BB with 34 K. After his promotion to Beloit he continued to put up nice numbers in most areas, averaging less than a hit and more than a strikeout per inning. But he screwed himself by walking 27 in 31.1 IP, resulting in an ugly 5.46 ERA. Control, you must learn control! He's at least 3 years off.
#8 - Kevin Mulvey - Good to see someone from the Santana trade on this list! Mulvey did OK at Rochester, but you'd like to see such a highly touted prospect put up better numbers, particularly considering the International League's tendency to favor pitchers. He had a slight increase in his walk rate over his 2007 at AA, but an alarming 4-fold increase in HR allowed in 2008. He's also got just 321 professional IP on his resume. Still, I suspect he'll get the first call if someone from the Twins' stretch-drive rotation gets hurt or falters next year.
#9 - Carlos Gutierrez - The Twins' 2nd first-round pick this summer (27th overall), Gutierrez already rates the organization's best fastball. At 25, he was quite old to be drafted, so the Twins dropped him straight into the Fort Myers bullpen. He pitched well in 16 appearances, allowing 6 ER on 23 H and 7 BB with 19 K in 25.2 IP. Now he's 26, so I'd bet that the Twins will continue to push him through the system. But even so, I doubt he'll be anything more than a September call-up in 2009.
#10 - Angel Morales - Like Adam Dunn with a better batting average, Morales had a monster year at Elizabethton, hitting .301/.413/.623 with 15 HR in just 54 games. But ugh, the strikeouts - 72 in just 183 ABs! That makes Carlos Gomez look like Paul Molitor. Morales just turned 19 last week, so, unlike Gutierrez, I predict that the Twins will take their sweet time with him and hope that he's ready to take on MLB pitching by 2012 or so.
Some promising players, but only Mijares is likely to have a significant impact in 2009.
Arizona Fall League
The AFL, unlike most of the Twins' minor leagues, greatly favors the hitters. Over its 38 game season, the average hitting line was .293/.369/.473, and the average pitcher put up a 5.79 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Bear that context in mind as we look at the performance of these prospects.
Rob Delaney - Even for a guy in some pitcher-friendly environments, Delaney's performance over the past 2 seasons has been stupendous. He began 2008 in Fort Myers, where he had a 1.42 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 31.2 IP, with a sensational 34/4 K/BB ratio. At midsummer he was promoted to New Britain and was even better, sporting a 1.05 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 34.1 IP with a 38/7 K/BB rate. His AFL numbers weren't anywhere close to that (including the championship game 13 IP, 16 H, 6 BB, 11 K, 4.85 ERA, 1.69 WHIP), but were still a little better than league average. Also, Delaney improved as the season went on, allowing just 1 ER on 7 H and 1 BB with 7 K in 7.1 IP over his final 6 appearances, suggesting that he may have made a quick adjustment to the higher level of competition. Between that and his otherworldly performance at New Britain, I'd be surprised if Delaney doesn't start the season in Rochester next spring. He could be someone the Twins look to if the bullpen is struggling midseason.
Tim Lahey - Control has been Lahey's problem throughout his professional career, and this fall was no exception. Though he managed to avoid giving up many runs (3.97 ERA thanks in part to allowing 0 HR in 11.1 IP - a rarity in the AFL), he had a lousy 8/6 K/BB rate. While his AFL performance is encouraging enough to earn him a good look in spring training, there's nothing in his track record to suggest that he'll be able to beat out Boof Bonser or Philip Humber for a middle relief spot with the Twins in 2009 - most likely he'll repeat at Rochester.
Jeff Manship - The Twins should be pleased with Manship's progress since he was drafted in the 14th round in 2006. After a solid half-season in Fort Myers (13 GS, 78.2 IP, 2.86 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 63/20 K/BB and 0 HR allowed!), Manship was promoted to New Britain. There, in almost the same number of innings (76.2) he essentially maintained his K/BB ratio (62/24), but allowed 22 more H - including 8 HR. His AFL numbers indicate improvement over his AA performance: a better than average 5.01 ERA, 1 HR allowed in 32.1 IP and an excellent 29/8 K/BB ratio. Still, I'm guessing he'll begin 2009 back in New Britain, and won't have an impact with the Twins until 2010 at the earliest.
Anthony Slama - It's not clear why Delaney was promoted this summer while Slama remained in Fort Myers, when Slama's numbers were arguably even more fantastic: 71 IP, 43 H, 110/24 K/BB, 1.01 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 0 HR allowed(!). Considering he had never faced anything above A+ hitters, it's perhaps not surprising that his first 12 appearances against AA and AAA studs didn't go so well. His AFL line of 10 IP, 14 H, 9 ER, 7 BB and 10 K (though still 0 HR) shows that there's an adjustment he needs to make. He'll be 25 in January, so it wouldn't be a bad idea to get him moving through the system. He'll begin 2009 no lower than AA, and if he has another season like 2008, he'll likely get a call-up to the Twins in September.
Dustin Martin - Of the 6 players the Twins collected from the Mets' farm system in the Luis Castillo and Johan Santana trades, Martin had the strongest 2008. His .290/.355/.447 was well above average for the Eastern League - his only glaring negative was a high strikeout rate (125 in 510 AB). That trend continued in the AFL, where he hit .314/.397/.449, but struck out 37 times in 118 AB. He should wind up at Rochester next year, where he'll need to work on making contact a little more consistently. If he can do that, he might move ahead of Gomez on the depth chart before too long, and certainly will be considered should an OF go down during the season.
Steve Tolleson - He was overshadowed by the spectacular numbers Luke Hughes put up, but Tolleson also had a terrific offensive season for the Rock Cats. He hit .300/.382/.466 with a solid 44/74 BB/K ratio. He was even better in the AFL, batting .383/.449/.543 with a 11/16 BB/K rate. He will certainly join Hughes in the Redwings' IF to start 2009, and could be called up should the Twins need IF depth as the season moves along.
Danny Valencia - One of the few hitters who failed to take advantage of the happy offensive conditions in the AFL, Valencia hit just .209/.254/.270 with a 7/25 BB/K rate. Since that line is reminiscent of Nick Punto's 2007, needless to say, Valencia's AFL experience did nothing to accelerate his progress through the Twins' system. I'd guess he's still at least 2 years away from a shot with the Twins.
So, despite some exciting prospect news earlier in the week, the only help the Twins are likely to get from those guys next year is in the bullpen or as injury fill-ins. I'll look at some other prospects who might be a bit closer to having an impact in the coming days.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Recognition
For once, I was pretty pleased with the way the MLB awards were handed out this year. Normally, the writers make at least one terrible call based on won-lost record or RBIs or - even worse - team performance. They had a great opportunity to do that again with NL MVP, with Phillie Ryan Howard a mile ahead in HR and RBI, but wisely gave the award to Albert Pujols instead, despite his team failing to make the playoffs. Sure, Johan Santana once again missed out on the Cy Young due to poor run support, but Tim Lincecum was clearly the next best choice, finishing in the top 3 in the NL in IP, K, ERA and, yes, W.
The Twins didn't pick up any of the big awards after Joe Mauer's batting title. Mauer also took home a Gold Glove, and he and Justin Morneau were given Silver Sluggers for being the best hitters at their respective positions (a little strange, considering Kevin Youkilis topped Morneau in BA, OBP, SLG% and HR). Despite missing out on the hardware, the Twins did get some pretty serious respect from the voters.
Ron Gardenhire came in 2nd in the Manager of the Year voting, the 4th time he's been runner-up for the award. I'll be the first to admit that he is often very slow to make personnel changes, and he pretty consistently makes some bad picks out of spring training. But the fundamentals of the team are always pretty strong, and by July, he's usually got things figured out. The Twins seem to outperform the projections every year, and Gardy's leadership is most likely a factor. His career win percentage is now .549 (average season: 89-73). He has his shortcomings, but I'm still glad to have him around through at least 2011.
Morneau came in 2nd for AL MVP and Mauer was 4th. Each of them received more than one first-place vote. Morneau might have come even closer had he managed one more big hit over the season's final 2 weeks - that might have brought him the RBI title and brought his team to the postseason. For him to finish ahead of Youkilis shows tremendous respect from the national writers. The same goes for Mauer, who drew a lot more votes than you'd expect for a big #3 hitter who had just 9 HR and 85 RBi. Clearly, the Twins have 2 elite players in the heart of their lineup, and don't need too much more around them to be a perennial force in the division. (Also, this wouldn't be a bad time to start thinking about an extension for Mauer - don't want to end up in the same situation they were in with Santana last year.)
It was also nice to see a couple of Twins rookies get some votes in the ROY balloting. Denard Span drew 3 3rd-place votes even though he spent almost half the season in the minors. Had the Twins wisely chosen to give him the CF job out of spring training, his numbers might have been better than those of the 3rd-place finisher, Jacoby Ellsbury. And Nick Blackburn got 1 point. His season was bookended by 1-0 losses, and in between he got 5 no-decisions after handing a lead to the bullpen. How many more votes would he have earned with 15 or so wins to go along with his 4.05 ERA and 193.1 IP?
The Twins have some very exciting players on the roster, and most of them are just entering their prime. They're all under team control for at least the next two years. We have a lot to look forward to.
The Twins didn't pick up any of the big awards after Joe Mauer's batting title. Mauer also took home a Gold Glove, and he and Justin Morneau were given Silver Sluggers for being the best hitters at their respective positions (a little strange, considering Kevin Youkilis topped Morneau in BA, OBP, SLG% and HR). Despite missing out on the hardware, the Twins did get some pretty serious respect from the voters.
Ron Gardenhire came in 2nd in the Manager of the Year voting, the 4th time he's been runner-up for the award. I'll be the first to admit that he is often very slow to make personnel changes, and he pretty consistently makes some bad picks out of spring training. But the fundamentals of the team are always pretty strong, and by July, he's usually got things figured out. The Twins seem to outperform the projections every year, and Gardy's leadership is most likely a factor. His career win percentage is now .549 (average season: 89-73). He has his shortcomings, but I'm still glad to have him around through at least 2011.
Morneau came in 2nd for AL MVP and Mauer was 4th. Each of them received more than one first-place vote. Morneau might have come even closer had he managed one more big hit over the season's final 2 weeks - that might have brought him the RBI title and brought his team to the postseason. For him to finish ahead of Youkilis shows tremendous respect from the national writers. The same goes for Mauer, who drew a lot more votes than you'd expect for a big #3 hitter who had just 9 HR and 85 RBi. Clearly, the Twins have 2 elite players in the heart of their lineup, and don't need too much more around them to be a perennial force in the division. (Also, this wouldn't be a bad time to start thinking about an extension for Mauer - don't want to end up in the same situation they were in with Santana last year.)
It was also nice to see a couple of Twins rookies get some votes in the ROY balloting. Denard Span drew 3 3rd-place votes even though he spent almost half the season in the minors. Had the Twins wisely chosen to give him the CF job out of spring training, his numbers might have been better than those of the 3rd-place finisher, Jacoby Ellsbury. And Nick Blackburn got 1 point. His season was bookended by 1-0 losses, and in between he got 5 no-decisions after handing a lead to the bullpen. How many more votes would he have earned with 15 or so wins to go along with his 4.05 ERA and 193.1 IP?
The Twins have some very exciting players on the roster, and most of them are just entering their prime. They're all under team control for at least the next two years. We have a lot to look forward to.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
No Neshek
Dammit.
Pat Neshek's attempted recovery appears to be on the same trajectory as Francisco Liriano's in 2006 - meaning that we should get Neshek back in some pretty decent form by mid-2010. As important as Neshek was to the Twins' 2008 plans, he was just as important for 2009, and his absence changes the calculus for the Twins' offseason moves.
First of all, the Twins have lost all luxury they might have had in disposing of their present in-house options. I had been advocating that they make an effort to re-sign Dennys Reyes, but I think that's essential now. If Jose Mijares is going to be the primary 8th-inning setup man (and, after his splendid September, it's got to be his job to lose), and Craig Breslow is a 6th or 7th inning option, then the Twins will still need that matchup lefty to bring on in the middle of a dicey inning. Reyes has done the job against lefties for 3 seasons with the Twins, holding them to a .531 OPS, striking them out at a high rate and inducing a ton of grounders.
Say Nick Blackburn runs into trouble in the 6th inning, leaving the game with 2 on and only 1 out and the big lefty coming up. Reyes can come in and face him with a high probability of a strikeout or DP grounder. Jesse Crain could finish the inning against the subsequent right-hander, and you'd still have Breslow and Mijares available to pitch complete innings in front of Joe Nathan.
I'd been ambivalent about the Twins keeping Matt Guerrier around for next season. No longer. Though he melted down in the final 3rd of 2008, he was very effective for 3 and a half seasons before that. I don't doubt that he'll bounce back and pitch more like his old self in 2009, particularly if he's allowed to return to some lower-leverage situations. Boof Bonser should also be brought to spring training and given an opportunity to show that his strong finish to the season out of the bullpen was an indication of things to come.
The Twins should also be hesitant to trade away any of the AAA relievers who were performing well last season, including Bobby Korecky and Ricky Barrett. Those folks, along with Arizona Fall League participants Rob Delaney and Anthony Slama, should be invited to spring training and given the opportunity to compete for a spot in the Twins' 'pen.
There is ample payroll available for free agents, and so the Twins should look into some of the available right-handers. I would be interested in giving a shot to some of the veterans who are coming off recent injuries - guys like Brendan Donnelly, Keith Foulke or Jason Isringhausen. Each had tremendous stats prior to their DL troubles, and bring a wealth of experience working in high-leverage situations. One of them might be willing to join a contender for a low-base, high-incentive contract while he proves that he can still compete.
Finally, I think this takes any potential moves that would have involved a member of the rotation off the table. With question marks in the bullpen, the Twins cannot afford to put themselves in a situation where they might need to get more than 15 innings from their relievers every trip through the rotation. The 5 starters they have now are very likely to average more than 6 IP/start. The closer the starters can get to Joe Nathan, the better. Therefore, the Twins should only consider moving minor league pieces in a trade, which probably limits them to working with the very worst teams in the league. Otherwise, they should look to free agents to upgrade their roster.
Speaking of the worst teams in the league, it has been suggested that nobody from the Nationals would be untouchable. Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman would be another guy to potentially target - his career numbers are about on par with the Buscher/Harris tandem, but he'd be a bit of an upgrade defensively.
Pat Neshek's attempted recovery appears to be on the same trajectory as Francisco Liriano's in 2006 - meaning that we should get Neshek back in some pretty decent form by mid-2010. As important as Neshek was to the Twins' 2008 plans, he was just as important for 2009, and his absence changes the calculus for the Twins' offseason moves.
First of all, the Twins have lost all luxury they might have had in disposing of their present in-house options. I had been advocating that they make an effort to re-sign Dennys Reyes, but I think that's essential now. If Jose Mijares is going to be the primary 8th-inning setup man (and, after his splendid September, it's got to be his job to lose), and Craig Breslow is a 6th or 7th inning option, then the Twins will still need that matchup lefty to bring on in the middle of a dicey inning. Reyes has done the job against lefties for 3 seasons with the Twins, holding them to a .531 OPS, striking them out at a high rate and inducing a ton of grounders.
Say Nick Blackburn runs into trouble in the 6th inning, leaving the game with 2 on and only 1 out and the big lefty coming up. Reyes can come in and face him with a high probability of a strikeout or DP grounder. Jesse Crain could finish the inning against the subsequent right-hander, and you'd still have Breslow and Mijares available to pitch complete innings in front of Joe Nathan.
I'd been ambivalent about the Twins keeping Matt Guerrier around for next season. No longer. Though he melted down in the final 3rd of 2008, he was very effective for 3 and a half seasons before that. I don't doubt that he'll bounce back and pitch more like his old self in 2009, particularly if he's allowed to return to some lower-leverage situations. Boof Bonser should also be brought to spring training and given an opportunity to show that his strong finish to the season out of the bullpen was an indication of things to come.
The Twins should also be hesitant to trade away any of the AAA relievers who were performing well last season, including Bobby Korecky and Ricky Barrett. Those folks, along with Arizona Fall League participants Rob Delaney and Anthony Slama, should be invited to spring training and given the opportunity to compete for a spot in the Twins' 'pen.
There is ample payroll available for free agents, and so the Twins should look into some of the available right-handers. I would be interested in giving a shot to some of the veterans who are coming off recent injuries - guys like Brendan Donnelly, Keith Foulke or Jason Isringhausen. Each had tremendous stats prior to their DL troubles, and bring a wealth of experience working in high-leverage situations. One of them might be willing to join a contender for a low-base, high-incentive contract while he proves that he can still compete.
Finally, I think this takes any potential moves that would have involved a member of the rotation off the table. With question marks in the bullpen, the Twins cannot afford to put themselves in a situation where they might need to get more than 15 innings from their relievers every trip through the rotation. The 5 starters they have now are very likely to average more than 6 IP/start. The closer the starters can get to Joe Nathan, the better. Therefore, the Twins should only consider moving minor league pieces in a trade, which probably limits them to working with the very worst teams in the league. Otherwise, they should look to free agents to upgrade their roster.
Speaking of the worst teams in the league, it has been suggested that nobody from the Nationals would be untouchable. Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman would be another guy to potentially target - his career numbers are about on par with the Buscher/Harris tandem, but he'd be a bit of an upgrade defensively.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Fixing the Left
The left side of the Twins' infield, that is. Now that the World Series is over, the Hot Stove season is upon us. ESPN.com is running a series briefly assessing the needs of each MLB team for 2009. Jonah Keri had some decent insights about the Twins, such as this one:
"If not for an ill-advised bout of loyalty toward washed-up sunk cost Livan Hernandez, the Twins might've beaten out the White Sox for the AL Central crown and made some noise in the playoffs with their deep pitching and the deadly duo of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau."
Well put. And while I think he may be overstating the potential value of Kevin Mulvey and Anthony Swarzak for 2009, he is largely on the mark. He concludes his piece with this:
"If the Twins do little more than stand pat this offseason they should still be dangerous, especially if Cuddyer and Neshek bounce back from injuries and Young takes a step forward. Solid bullpen contributions from the next wave of pitching prospects combined with one well-placed trade for a shortstop or third baseman would make the Twins the favorites to win the division in 2009."
Correct. As I outlined last month, the Twins are in better shape than any of their rivals for 2009. If they merely show the fortitude to ask Carlos Gomez to work on his game in AAA, they can have a solid lineup even with their existing players, because the Brian Buscher/Brendan Harris platoon would be batting 8th, and Nick Punto or Matt Tolbert would be batting 9th. Do not go trading right-handed power bats (Michael Cuddyer) in order to acquire other right-handed power bats! And absolutely do not go trading any starting pitchers unless the return is unimpeachably awesome!
And when I say unimpeachably awesome, I mean drastically better than what we have now. Overall, Twins 3rd-basemen were most unimpressive in 2008, but Mike Lamb did a lot to drag the numbers down. Buscher's OPS ended up at .730, obviously subpar for a 3B, but bear some things in mind:
1. His R/L splits were severe - .455 OPS vs. LHP, .799 vs. RHP, including all 13 XBH.
2. He's been a slow starter at each level of the minors, improving his OPS each year once he had 250-300 ABs (he currently has 300 career MLB ABs).
Based on his past performances, I would say that Buscher is likely to do no worse than an .800 OPS vs. RHP (the only sort he should be facing) in 2009, and there's a very good chance that he could do much better.
Harris, for his part, amassed a .721 OPS in 2008, and had virtually identical numbers against RHP and LHP. Earlier in his career, though, he hit lefties much better (almost .900 OPS in 2007). For his career, he's hit .295/.360/.440 vs. LHP, an .800 OPS.
So, the Buscher/Harris platoon can be expected to OPS at least .800, which, were they one player, would put them solidly in the middle of the MLB pack among 3Bs. The downside is that neither one of them is a particularly strong fielder or baserunner.
Conversely, Nick Punto's OPS can be expected to land somewhere in the mid .600s (it was .664 over the past 3 seasons), but he is an above-average defender and baserunner. (Punto's value as a versatile defender, switch-hitter, and baserunner make him worth keeping in a bench role for the next couple of seasons. I would advocate the Twins signing him to a 2-year deal at $2.5-$3 million/year, but with incentives that would up his salary if he ended up starting. For example, add $1 million if he goes over 300 PAs, and another million if he goes over 500 PAs.)
When we think about potentially trading for people who could upgrade these positions, it would be a mistake to consider just the value of the incoming player compared to that of the outgoing player. Rather, we should look at how much of an improvement the new player is over the baseline - is what we're adding a net gain compared to what we're giving up?
Consider one of the current trade rumors: Michael Cuddyer and/or Kevin Slowey/Nick Blackburn for Garrett Atkins. Over the past 3 seasons, Atkins' OPS away from Coors Field is .790, and his defense is only a little better than that of Buscher/Harris. Cuddyer's career OPS is .785. While replacing Cuddyer in the outfield with Gomez would greatly improve the Twins defensively, it would be a net loss to the lineup, since Gomez is only a .650 OPS hitter right now. Replacing Blackburn or (gulp!) Slowey with Philip Humber would also likely diminish the rotation a bit, all so Atkins could play essentially just as well as what we've already got. No thanks.
Here are the career OPS numbers for the other available 3Bs (either free agents or available for trades), and a brief rating (+, - or =) on how their defense compares to Buscher/Harris:
Casey Blake: .781, =
Russell Branyan: .813, =
Joe Crede: .753, +
Mike Lamb: let's not go there
Doug Mientkiewicz: ditto
Ramon Vazquez: .686, =
Adrian Beltre: .786, +
Andy LaRoche: .560, +
Kevin Kouzmanoff: .753, =
As you can see, none of those guys has historically hit very much better than Buscher and Harris can expect to. A lot of them would hit more homers, but would be on base much less often overall. The few who play better defense are a bit of a step down at the plate. Blake, Beltre and Atkins mash lefties, but are average or worse against righties, the sort of pitchers a regular 3B will be facing most of the time. Crede's splits are opposite.
None of these guys bring enough to merit the sacrifice of any of the Twins' projected starters. Were I Bill Smith, I would only offer trade pieces I didn't think I could use, like Boof Bonser, Humber, Bobby Korecky, etc. A couple of teams might be deep enough into rebuilding that they'd be willing to take on some of the 2008 Rochester pitchers. The best trade would be with Pittsburgh for LaRoche. The Pirates need all kinds of pitching help - guys like Matt Guerrier and Humber should look pretty good to them. LaRoche was a top-50 prospect for 3 straight years before injuring his thumb in spring training. He went on to have a horrendous 2008 in the Majors, dropping his stock a great deal. He still has plenty of upside, and has shown a terrific eye at the plate at all levels. If he were to bounce back to the numbers he put up in the minors (career line: .295/.382/.517), the Twins would have a right-handed bat to stick between Mauer and Morneau for the next 5 seasons.
As for the free agents, Crede is the best choice. He's been hampered by injuries the last 2 seasons, and is therefore likely to take a 1-2 year deal for reasonable money in order to try and raise his value for his next contract while he's still in his low 30s. If he could repeat his 2006 numbers (.283/.323/.506, 30 HR), the Twins would have the bat they're looking for, while also improving themselves defensively. If he performs closer to his career average, they're still getting good pop from their #8 hitter. But I'd definitely keep Buscher around in case Crede gets hurt again.
There are a lot more options at shortstop. I'll repeat the exercise from above (in comparison to Punto's defense), and also rate how the available players compare to Punto's baserunning.
Orlando Cabrera: .721, -, -
Juan Castro: Yeah, right!
Alex Cintron: .713, -, -
Alex Cora: .660, =, -
Craig Counsell: .687, =, -
David Eckstein: .712, =, -
Adam Everett: Been there, done that
Rafael Furcal: .764, -, +
Chris Gomez: .685, =, -
Cesar Izturis: .629, =, =
Edgar Renteria: .753, -, -
Omar Vizquel: .693, +, =
Michael Young: .788, -, -
JJ Hardy: .775, -, -
Young and Hardy would certainly command at least Blackburn in a trade. Young's numbers have declined for 3 straight seasons - with his best years behind him, he wouldn't be worth it. Hardy, however, is just 26, and has averaged 30 doubles and 25 HR the past 2 seasons. Though he doesn't have Punto's range and isn't much of a threat on the bases, his hitting ability more than makes up for it. Having that much more production from shortstop for at least 2 seasons would be worth the potential dropoff in performance from Blackburn to Humber or Mulvey.
As for the free agents, Furcal would be the best all-around choice. Coming off of back surgery that cost him most of last season, he may not be in position to command the sort of years and dollars he otherwise would have and, like Crede, may take a shorter deal in order to up his value while he's still relatively young. Even so, he would probably get 8 figures, but the Twins have enough payroll space available in 2009 and 2010 to sign one splashy free agent.
The other intriguing option would be Vizquel. His bat has declined drastically over the last couple of seasons, but he's still a superlative fielder and savvy small-baller. He might be a good fielding influence on Alexi Casilla, and Gardy would love putting plays on while he's batting out of the #9 spot.
At this point, the only player I can see worth trading a projected starter for would be JJ Hardy. The Brewers are going to need some pitching, so it's a deal that could easily be worked out. But my ideal scenario would be for the Twins to sign Rafael Furcal to a reasonably short-term deal for $12-ish million/year while trading some of their spare pitching parts for Andy LaRoche. Those guys, at the top of their games, could eventually provide the Twins with this lineup:
1. Span
2. Furcal
3. Mauer
4. LaRoche
5. Morneau
6. Cuddyer
7. Kubel
8. Young
9. Casilla
Very good OBP 1-7, a nice mix of R/L, good speed as the lineup turns over. That lineup, combined with an intact pitching staff, would certainly compete for the top spot in the division. But even without big improvements on the left side of the infield, that pitching staff would probably take the Twins pretty far.
Once again, I urge Mr. Smith: don't repeat your mistakes from last year, weakening the team with trades and signings when what you already had in the system was actually better. Would it be nice to have more power from 3B and SS? Absolutely. Will it make this team a champion? Not if we rob Peter to pay Paul.
"If not for an ill-advised bout of loyalty toward washed-up sunk cost Livan Hernandez, the Twins might've beaten out the White Sox for the AL Central crown and made some noise in the playoffs with their deep pitching and the deadly duo of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau."
Well put. And while I think he may be overstating the potential value of Kevin Mulvey and Anthony Swarzak for 2009, he is largely on the mark. He concludes his piece with this:
"If the Twins do little more than stand pat this offseason they should still be dangerous, especially if Cuddyer and Neshek bounce back from injuries and Young takes a step forward. Solid bullpen contributions from the next wave of pitching prospects combined with one well-placed trade for a shortstop or third baseman would make the Twins the favorites to win the division in 2009."
Correct. As I outlined last month, the Twins are in better shape than any of their rivals for 2009. If they merely show the fortitude to ask Carlos Gomez to work on his game in AAA, they can have a solid lineup even with their existing players, because the Brian Buscher/Brendan Harris platoon would be batting 8th, and Nick Punto or Matt Tolbert would be batting 9th. Do not go trading right-handed power bats (Michael Cuddyer) in order to acquire other right-handed power bats! And absolutely do not go trading any starting pitchers unless the return is unimpeachably awesome!
And when I say unimpeachably awesome, I mean drastically better than what we have now. Overall, Twins 3rd-basemen were most unimpressive in 2008, but Mike Lamb did a lot to drag the numbers down. Buscher's OPS ended up at .730, obviously subpar for a 3B, but bear some things in mind:
1. His R/L splits were severe - .455 OPS vs. LHP, .799 vs. RHP, including all 13 XBH.
2. He's been a slow starter at each level of the minors, improving his OPS each year once he had 250-300 ABs (he currently has 300 career MLB ABs).
Based on his past performances, I would say that Buscher is likely to do no worse than an .800 OPS vs. RHP (the only sort he should be facing) in 2009, and there's a very good chance that he could do much better.
Harris, for his part, amassed a .721 OPS in 2008, and had virtually identical numbers against RHP and LHP. Earlier in his career, though, he hit lefties much better (almost .900 OPS in 2007). For his career, he's hit .295/.360/.440 vs. LHP, an .800 OPS.
So, the Buscher/Harris platoon can be expected to OPS at least .800, which, were they one player, would put them solidly in the middle of the MLB pack among 3Bs. The downside is that neither one of them is a particularly strong fielder or baserunner.
Conversely, Nick Punto's OPS can be expected to land somewhere in the mid .600s (it was .664 over the past 3 seasons), but he is an above-average defender and baserunner. (Punto's value as a versatile defender, switch-hitter, and baserunner make him worth keeping in a bench role for the next couple of seasons. I would advocate the Twins signing him to a 2-year deal at $2.5-$3 million/year, but with incentives that would up his salary if he ended up starting. For example, add $1 million if he goes over 300 PAs, and another million if he goes over 500 PAs.)
When we think about potentially trading for people who could upgrade these positions, it would be a mistake to consider just the value of the incoming player compared to that of the outgoing player. Rather, we should look at how much of an improvement the new player is over the baseline - is what we're adding a net gain compared to what we're giving up?
Consider one of the current trade rumors: Michael Cuddyer and/or Kevin Slowey/Nick Blackburn for Garrett Atkins. Over the past 3 seasons, Atkins' OPS away from Coors Field is .790, and his defense is only a little better than that of Buscher/Harris. Cuddyer's career OPS is .785. While replacing Cuddyer in the outfield with Gomez would greatly improve the Twins defensively, it would be a net loss to the lineup, since Gomez is only a .650 OPS hitter right now. Replacing Blackburn or (gulp!) Slowey with Philip Humber would also likely diminish the rotation a bit, all so Atkins could play essentially just as well as what we've already got. No thanks.
Here are the career OPS numbers for the other available 3Bs (either free agents or available for trades), and a brief rating (+, - or =) on how their defense compares to Buscher/Harris:
Casey Blake: .781, =
Russell Branyan: .813, =
Joe Crede: .753, +
Mike Lamb: let's not go there
Doug Mientkiewicz: ditto
Ramon Vazquez: .686, =
Adrian Beltre: .786, +
Andy LaRoche: .560, +
Kevin Kouzmanoff: .753, =
As you can see, none of those guys has historically hit very much better than Buscher and Harris can expect to. A lot of them would hit more homers, but would be on base much less often overall. The few who play better defense are a bit of a step down at the plate. Blake, Beltre and Atkins mash lefties, but are average or worse against righties, the sort of pitchers a regular 3B will be facing most of the time. Crede's splits are opposite.
None of these guys bring enough to merit the sacrifice of any of the Twins' projected starters. Were I Bill Smith, I would only offer trade pieces I didn't think I could use, like Boof Bonser, Humber, Bobby Korecky, etc. A couple of teams might be deep enough into rebuilding that they'd be willing to take on some of the 2008 Rochester pitchers. The best trade would be with Pittsburgh for LaRoche. The Pirates need all kinds of pitching help - guys like Matt Guerrier and Humber should look pretty good to them. LaRoche was a top-50 prospect for 3 straight years before injuring his thumb in spring training. He went on to have a horrendous 2008 in the Majors, dropping his stock a great deal. He still has plenty of upside, and has shown a terrific eye at the plate at all levels. If he were to bounce back to the numbers he put up in the minors (career line: .295/.382/.517), the Twins would have a right-handed bat to stick between Mauer and Morneau for the next 5 seasons.
As for the free agents, Crede is the best choice. He's been hampered by injuries the last 2 seasons, and is therefore likely to take a 1-2 year deal for reasonable money in order to try and raise his value for his next contract while he's still in his low 30s. If he could repeat his 2006 numbers (.283/.323/.506, 30 HR), the Twins would have the bat they're looking for, while also improving themselves defensively. If he performs closer to his career average, they're still getting good pop from their #8 hitter. But I'd definitely keep Buscher around in case Crede gets hurt again.
There are a lot more options at shortstop. I'll repeat the exercise from above (in comparison to Punto's defense), and also rate how the available players compare to Punto's baserunning.
Orlando Cabrera: .721, -, -
Juan Castro: Yeah, right!
Alex Cintron: .713, -, -
Alex Cora: .660, =, -
Craig Counsell: .687, =, -
David Eckstein: .712, =, -
Adam Everett: Been there, done that
Rafael Furcal: .764, -, +
Chris Gomez: .685, =, -
Cesar Izturis: .629, =, =
Edgar Renteria: .753, -, -
Omar Vizquel: .693, +, =
Michael Young: .788, -, -
JJ Hardy: .775, -, -
Young and Hardy would certainly command at least Blackburn in a trade. Young's numbers have declined for 3 straight seasons - with his best years behind him, he wouldn't be worth it. Hardy, however, is just 26, and has averaged 30 doubles and 25 HR the past 2 seasons. Though he doesn't have Punto's range and isn't much of a threat on the bases, his hitting ability more than makes up for it. Having that much more production from shortstop for at least 2 seasons would be worth the potential dropoff in performance from Blackburn to Humber or Mulvey.
As for the free agents, Furcal would be the best all-around choice. Coming off of back surgery that cost him most of last season, he may not be in position to command the sort of years and dollars he otherwise would have and, like Crede, may take a shorter deal in order to up his value while he's still relatively young. Even so, he would probably get 8 figures, but the Twins have enough payroll space available in 2009 and 2010 to sign one splashy free agent.
The other intriguing option would be Vizquel. His bat has declined drastically over the last couple of seasons, but he's still a superlative fielder and savvy small-baller. He might be a good fielding influence on Alexi Casilla, and Gardy would love putting plays on while he's batting out of the #9 spot.
At this point, the only player I can see worth trading a projected starter for would be JJ Hardy. The Brewers are going to need some pitching, so it's a deal that could easily be worked out. But my ideal scenario would be for the Twins to sign Rafael Furcal to a reasonably short-term deal for $12-ish million/year while trading some of their spare pitching parts for Andy LaRoche. Those guys, at the top of their games, could eventually provide the Twins with this lineup:
1. Span
2. Furcal
3. Mauer
4. LaRoche
5. Morneau
6. Cuddyer
7. Kubel
8. Young
9. Casilla
Very good OBP 1-7, a nice mix of R/L, good speed as the lineup turns over. That lineup, combined with an intact pitching staff, would certainly compete for the top spot in the division. But even without big improvements on the left side of the infield, that pitching staff would probably take the Twins pretty far.
Once again, I urge Mr. Smith: don't repeat your mistakes from last year, weakening the team with trades and signings when what you already had in the system was actually better. Would it be nice to have more power from 3B and SS? Absolutely. Will it make this team a champion? Not if we rob Peter to pay Paul.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
The More Things Change
In my 32 years on this earth, I haven't been witness to very much profound history. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, signifying the end of the cold war, was probably the biggest deal of my life until last night. That wall had been in existence for 28 years, the German nation divided for 44. The wall that fell last night with the election of Barack Obama has been with us ever since the first slave arrived on this continent nearly 400 years ago - our nation has been divided since its inception.
As a middle class kid from lily-white Stillwater, MN, I can't pretend to know the depth of affirmation that was felt by the black community last night. I have never known what it's like to feel as though the ideals and opportunities of our wonderful country didn't really apply to people like me. But it was evident on the many faces throughout the country, jubilant and tearful, that America had renewed itself in millions of hearts and minds. I had supported Obama because I believed he could be the thoughtful, pragmatic, concensus-building leader our nation has been hungering for, and because the Republican party that opposed him pandered to the worst aspects of our nature in trying to defeat him. I really hadn't considered until a few days ago just how much Obama's election would mean to the growing minority population. Good for them.
(But if you think America has turned a corner into an era of equality for all, I would point you to the results of the ballot initiatives in CA. There, in one of the 3 most progressive states in the union, voters showed more compassion for factory-farm chickens than for gays and lesbians. It's absurd that a state constitution can be changed by a simple majority of the voting public, but the sales tax cannot be increased without 2/3 of the vote. This structural problem is one of the many reasons that California is a mess right now.)
The voters delivered a mandate last night, but it wasn't for Obama, though his 52.4% of the popular vote was the highest total for a Democrat since the year I was born. And it wasn't for the Democratic party, whose net of 19 House seats and 5 Senate seats so far is actually lower than a lot of people predicted. The mandate was for change - change of legislative and regulatory priorities, and change of tone in Washington.
Many of John McCain's supporters were voting for change as well, hoping that his history of bipartisanship and independence from his party would lead to better things from the government. His exceptionally gracious concession speech was evidence that he had understood the message from the electorate. Now that the campaign is over, I hope he will return to the senate as the maverick he has historically been, putting his country ahead of his party and working with the new administration to solve the considerable problems that face us.
Obama's acceptance speech indicated that he understood the directive from the voters as well. He was humble and generous in reaching out to those who did not vote for him, suggesting that he has no intention of pushing around the diminished Republican caucuses. If he is to succeed as a President, he needs to govern in such a way that at least the moderates on the other side can get on board with his policies.
To that end, here are a few things I'd love to see happen between now and the end of January:
Build a Team of Rivals
Obama's transition is already off to a better start than Bill Clinton's, with a team in place and an offer out to Rahm Emanuel to be Chief of Staff. Emanuel is a fairly moderate democrat, having riled liberals with his stances on welfare reform and free trade, so his selection tells us that Obama is aiming for the center.
He can prove it even more strongly to the rest of the country by emulating the cabinet of Abraham Lincoln. That group had representatives from both parties, in an effort to hold together the remaining constituencies of a disintegrating union. They had their own agendas, but Lincoln deftly placated each faction while convincing them to support his policies. Whether Obama has the same political skill remains to be seen, but he would do well to start off with at least a couple of moderate Republicans in his administration.
Many have speculated that Defense Secretary Robert Gates will be invited to stay on in his post when Obama takes the reigns. Another obvious choice would be Colin Powell, whose endorsement of Obama a couple of weeks ago was influential in lending credibility to the candidate. Powell could resume his work in the State Department, which he left in frustration in 2005, or perhaps be a national security adviser. Richard Lugar and Chuck Hagel are Republican senators with great expertise - Obama might tap them as well.
Be a Check on the Congress
One of the many failures of the Bush administration was its unflagging complicity with the Republican Congress. Bush didn't veto a single measure until the Democrats took over in 2007 - 6 years into his Presidency. That's not the relationship between the branches of government that the Founders envisioned.
The Republicans made it an issue down the stretch that the Nancy Pelosi/Harry Reid congress would run wild with liberal legislation with a Democrat in the White House. Obama can soothe the fears of nervous conservatives by vetoing bills that do not pay for themselves or fit with the focus of his agenda. And, while we're on the subject...
Shake Up the Congressional Leadership
Why should Pelosi and Reid automatically get to retain their positions? There have been enough moderate Democrats elected in formerly Republican districts over the past couple of cycles to seriously pull the aggregate balance of the caucus toward the center. Pelosi is from one of the most liberal districts in the nation - she is absolutely justified in offering liberal policies that represent her constituency. But does she represent the Congressional Democrats as a whole? Why should she be the one who sets the priorities?
Reid has been at times obnoxiously combative with the Republicans. Will he be able to set the conciliatory tone the Democrats need if they are to deal with monumental issues troubling the country? Does he have the temperament to reach across the aisle and quickly move important legislation?
Remember, Congress' approval ratings are very near those of President Bush - abysmal. Reid and Pelosi had 2 years to show that they were going to change the way things worked on Capitol Hill, and I don't see that they were able to. I'd love to see each of them at least challenged when the new caucuses convene in January. Even if they are ultimately reconfirmed, it would at least show everyone that the Democrats are serious about trying to govern for the center.
Reconcile with Lieberman
With the filibuster-proof 60-seat majority likely out of reach for this session, Senate Democrats may be tempted to punish Joe Lieberman for his active support of McCain - especially his prominent speech at the Convention in Saint Paul. But, even though they don't really need his help in the caucus, it would send a positive signal to everyone if they kept him in. It would show that they don't intend to be punitive, that they want to work with McCain supporters.
The next few months will be a time of important choices for the new Democratic regime. If they don't take seriously the voters' demand for change in Washington, they'll find out in 2010 and 2012 just how quickly the voters can change their minds.
As a middle class kid from lily-white Stillwater, MN, I can't pretend to know the depth of affirmation that was felt by the black community last night. I have never known what it's like to feel as though the ideals and opportunities of our wonderful country didn't really apply to people like me. But it was evident on the many faces throughout the country, jubilant and tearful, that America had renewed itself in millions of hearts and minds. I had supported Obama because I believed he could be the thoughtful, pragmatic, concensus-building leader our nation has been hungering for, and because the Republican party that opposed him pandered to the worst aspects of our nature in trying to defeat him. I really hadn't considered until a few days ago just how much Obama's election would mean to the growing minority population. Good for them.
(But if you think America has turned a corner into an era of equality for all, I would point you to the results of the ballot initiatives in CA. There, in one of the 3 most progressive states in the union, voters showed more compassion for factory-farm chickens than for gays and lesbians. It's absurd that a state constitution can be changed by a simple majority of the voting public, but the sales tax cannot be increased without 2/3 of the vote. This structural problem is one of the many reasons that California is a mess right now.)
The voters delivered a mandate last night, but it wasn't for Obama, though his 52.4% of the popular vote was the highest total for a Democrat since the year I was born. And it wasn't for the Democratic party, whose net of 19 House seats and 5 Senate seats so far is actually lower than a lot of people predicted. The mandate was for change - change of legislative and regulatory priorities, and change of tone in Washington.
Many of John McCain's supporters were voting for change as well, hoping that his history of bipartisanship and independence from his party would lead to better things from the government. His exceptionally gracious concession speech was evidence that he had understood the message from the electorate. Now that the campaign is over, I hope he will return to the senate as the maverick he has historically been, putting his country ahead of his party and working with the new administration to solve the considerable problems that face us.
Obama's acceptance speech indicated that he understood the directive from the voters as well. He was humble and generous in reaching out to those who did not vote for him, suggesting that he has no intention of pushing around the diminished Republican caucuses. If he is to succeed as a President, he needs to govern in such a way that at least the moderates on the other side can get on board with his policies.
To that end, here are a few things I'd love to see happen between now and the end of January:
Build a Team of Rivals
Obama's transition is already off to a better start than Bill Clinton's, with a team in place and an offer out to Rahm Emanuel to be Chief of Staff. Emanuel is a fairly moderate democrat, having riled liberals with his stances on welfare reform and free trade, so his selection tells us that Obama is aiming for the center.
He can prove it even more strongly to the rest of the country by emulating the cabinet of Abraham Lincoln. That group had representatives from both parties, in an effort to hold together the remaining constituencies of a disintegrating union. They had their own agendas, but Lincoln deftly placated each faction while convincing them to support his policies. Whether Obama has the same political skill remains to be seen, but he would do well to start off with at least a couple of moderate Republicans in his administration.
Many have speculated that Defense Secretary Robert Gates will be invited to stay on in his post when Obama takes the reigns. Another obvious choice would be Colin Powell, whose endorsement of Obama a couple of weeks ago was influential in lending credibility to the candidate. Powell could resume his work in the State Department, which he left in frustration in 2005, or perhaps be a national security adviser. Richard Lugar and Chuck Hagel are Republican senators with great expertise - Obama might tap them as well.
Be a Check on the Congress
One of the many failures of the Bush administration was its unflagging complicity with the Republican Congress. Bush didn't veto a single measure until the Democrats took over in 2007 - 6 years into his Presidency. That's not the relationship between the branches of government that the Founders envisioned.
The Republicans made it an issue down the stretch that the Nancy Pelosi/Harry Reid congress would run wild with liberal legislation with a Democrat in the White House. Obama can soothe the fears of nervous conservatives by vetoing bills that do not pay for themselves or fit with the focus of his agenda. And, while we're on the subject...
Shake Up the Congressional Leadership
Why should Pelosi and Reid automatically get to retain their positions? There have been enough moderate Democrats elected in formerly Republican districts over the past couple of cycles to seriously pull the aggregate balance of the caucus toward the center. Pelosi is from one of the most liberal districts in the nation - she is absolutely justified in offering liberal policies that represent her constituency. But does she represent the Congressional Democrats as a whole? Why should she be the one who sets the priorities?
Reid has been at times obnoxiously combative with the Republicans. Will he be able to set the conciliatory tone the Democrats need if they are to deal with monumental issues troubling the country? Does he have the temperament to reach across the aisle and quickly move important legislation?
Remember, Congress' approval ratings are very near those of President Bush - abysmal. Reid and Pelosi had 2 years to show that they were going to change the way things worked on Capitol Hill, and I don't see that they were able to. I'd love to see each of them at least challenged when the new caucuses convene in January. Even if they are ultimately reconfirmed, it would at least show everyone that the Democrats are serious about trying to govern for the center.
Reconcile with Lieberman
With the filibuster-proof 60-seat majority likely out of reach for this session, Senate Democrats may be tempted to punish Joe Lieberman for his active support of McCain - especially his prominent speech at the Convention in Saint Paul. But, even though they don't really need his help in the caucus, it would send a positive signal to everyone if they kept him in. It would show that they don't intend to be punitive, that they want to work with McCain supporters.
The next few months will be a time of important choices for the new Democratic regime. If they don't take seriously the voters' demand for change in Washington, they'll find out in 2010 and 2012 just how quickly the voters can change their minds.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Reformatting
Congratulations to Phillies on last night's 3-2 win. It's good to see they still remember how to play baseball after their week off.
Baseball's asinine postseason schedule was introduced last year on the theory that the World Series would get better ratings if it started in the middle of the week. Does that really help? The last 4 Series haven't been particularly scintillating - the Champs lost a grand total of 1 game - and I'm not sure what kind of ratings they're going to get with a Tampa/Philly series under any circumstances. The minimal gains the broadcasters may or may not achieve are absolutely not worth the distortion of the competition that occurs under this format.
MLB has accommodated the later World Series start by stretching the first 2 rounds of the playoffs. Instead of one day off before the first Divisional Series begin, now there are 2 - and the competitors of the White Sox/Rays series had 3. There was an extra off-day added between games 4 and 5 (not needed this year - meaning each LCS competitor had 3 days off before that series). There is now - and this is the killer - an off-day between games 4 and 5 of the LCS even though there is no travel. And there is an extra off-day between game 7 of the LCS and the start of the World Series.
These 4 extra off-days in the early rounds of the playoffs are heinous for a number of reasons, the least of which is probably the deteriorating fall weather in the northern cities. With start times set for after 8pm Eastern time, the games are certain to last until after 11pm, getting into what can be some awfully frigid low temperatures. As we've seen the past couple of Aprils, baseball is harder to play in the cold - pitcher's have a harder time gripping the ball, hitters can have some painful swings. The closer we get to November, the more likely we are to face these adverse conditions. Are those conditions what we want to see the most important games of the year played in?
More crucially, the extended schedule interferes with the balance of the teams established over the course of the regular season. This doesn't happen in the other major sports. In the NFL, there is one game per week, and also one playoff game per week (with the frequent exception of the extra week to hype the Super Bowl). In the NBA and NHL, teams typically play about 3 games per week, and also play about 3 games per week in the playoffs. In MLB, there is a game almost every day - the All-Star break is the only time in 6 months teams will get consecutive days off - and yet the playoffs under the current format are riddled with off-days.
The cool thing about baseball is that there is nowhere to hide over the course of a 6-7 game/week for 6 months schedule. In the other sports, because of the frequent off-days, you can play your best guys every night. But in baseball, if you only have 3 good starting pitchers, you're going to have to run your 2 weak ones out there every 5th day and take your lumps. If you have 3 reliable relievers, your going to have to rest them every couple of days and cross your fingers with your lesser pitchers. Your starting catcher is going to need to rest at least one game a week. And so on. The teams with the best top-to-bottom talent will rise to the top of the standings because they can still put a strong team on the field even when they're resting their studs. (Imagine what the NFL would be like if teams had to start their 3rd-string QB every third game!) Also, there are very few 2-game series during the regular season, and no 1-gamers (unless you need a tiebreaker - sigh).
The extended schedule totally disrupts this reality. The extra off-day enables the Game 2 starter to pitch Game 5 on full rest. A 3-man rotation could pitch all 7 games of a series and only have to work on short rest once (Game 1 to Game 4). The best relievers could pitch an inning in every game and never exceed their normal regular season workload. The starting catcher can play in every game. With at least one fewer pitcher required, a team could add an extra bench player or two - speed or matchup enhancements they would have loved to have during the regular season, but couldn't afford. In short, a playoff team under this format could be a different team than the one that slogged through the regular season.
I would prefer to see the rhythm of the playoffs more closely resemble that of the regular season. If it's so important to the broadcasters to begin the World Series on a Wednesday, here's what I'd propose:
One league's Divisional Series begin on Tuesday after the season, the other's on Wednesday. They should play for 5 consecutive days - 2 in one city, 3 in the other. It would be up to the higher seeded team to decide whether they'd like to begin the series with 3 games at home or finish with 3 home games. I suspect most would opt for the latter, figuring they could split on the road and then force their opponent to close it out in hostile territory - though they may decide that the pitchers they have lined up to start the series do better at home - or whatever. The series conclude on Saturday and Sunday.
It's now the 2nd week of October. One LCS begins on Monday, the other on Tuesday. They play for 7 consecutive days, 3 in one city, 4 in the other. Again, the higher seed gets to choose the order. These series conclude on Sunday and Monday. After a travel day for the later finisher, we're ready to begin the World Series on Wednesday - but of the 3rd week of October instead of the 4th.
If the early rounds go the distance, you're looking at 12 games in 13 days, just like the regular season. If teams decide to hide their #5 starters or ride their best bullpen arms, they're risking some serious fatigue. That gives the advantage to the teams that have the confidence to use everybody on the roster - just like they did all summer long when they were winning enough games to make it to October in the first place.
Baseball's asinine postseason schedule was introduced last year on the theory that the World Series would get better ratings if it started in the middle of the week. Does that really help? The last 4 Series haven't been particularly scintillating - the Champs lost a grand total of 1 game - and I'm not sure what kind of ratings they're going to get with a Tampa/Philly series under any circumstances. The minimal gains the broadcasters may or may not achieve are absolutely not worth the distortion of the competition that occurs under this format.
MLB has accommodated the later World Series start by stretching the first 2 rounds of the playoffs. Instead of one day off before the first Divisional Series begin, now there are 2 - and the competitors of the White Sox/Rays series had 3. There was an extra off-day added between games 4 and 5 (not needed this year - meaning each LCS competitor had 3 days off before that series). There is now - and this is the killer - an off-day between games 4 and 5 of the LCS even though there is no travel. And there is an extra off-day between game 7 of the LCS and the start of the World Series.
These 4 extra off-days in the early rounds of the playoffs are heinous for a number of reasons, the least of which is probably the deteriorating fall weather in the northern cities. With start times set for after 8pm Eastern time, the games are certain to last until after 11pm, getting into what can be some awfully frigid low temperatures. As we've seen the past couple of Aprils, baseball is harder to play in the cold - pitcher's have a harder time gripping the ball, hitters can have some painful swings. The closer we get to November, the more likely we are to face these adverse conditions. Are those conditions what we want to see the most important games of the year played in?
More crucially, the extended schedule interferes with the balance of the teams established over the course of the regular season. This doesn't happen in the other major sports. In the NFL, there is one game per week, and also one playoff game per week (with the frequent exception of the extra week to hype the Super Bowl). In the NBA and NHL, teams typically play about 3 games per week, and also play about 3 games per week in the playoffs. In MLB, there is a game almost every day - the All-Star break is the only time in 6 months teams will get consecutive days off - and yet the playoffs under the current format are riddled with off-days.
The cool thing about baseball is that there is nowhere to hide over the course of a 6-7 game/week for 6 months schedule. In the other sports, because of the frequent off-days, you can play your best guys every night. But in baseball, if you only have 3 good starting pitchers, you're going to have to run your 2 weak ones out there every 5th day and take your lumps. If you have 3 reliable relievers, your going to have to rest them every couple of days and cross your fingers with your lesser pitchers. Your starting catcher is going to need to rest at least one game a week. And so on. The teams with the best top-to-bottom talent will rise to the top of the standings because they can still put a strong team on the field even when they're resting their studs. (Imagine what the NFL would be like if teams had to start their 3rd-string QB every third game!) Also, there are very few 2-game series during the regular season, and no 1-gamers (unless you need a tiebreaker - sigh).
The extended schedule totally disrupts this reality. The extra off-day enables the Game 2 starter to pitch Game 5 on full rest. A 3-man rotation could pitch all 7 games of a series and only have to work on short rest once (Game 1 to Game 4). The best relievers could pitch an inning in every game and never exceed their normal regular season workload. The starting catcher can play in every game. With at least one fewer pitcher required, a team could add an extra bench player or two - speed or matchup enhancements they would have loved to have during the regular season, but couldn't afford. In short, a playoff team under this format could be a different team than the one that slogged through the regular season.
I would prefer to see the rhythm of the playoffs more closely resemble that of the regular season. If it's so important to the broadcasters to begin the World Series on a Wednesday, here's what I'd propose:
One league's Divisional Series begin on Tuesday after the season, the other's on Wednesday. They should play for 5 consecutive days - 2 in one city, 3 in the other. It would be up to the higher seeded team to decide whether they'd like to begin the series with 3 games at home or finish with 3 home games. I suspect most would opt for the latter, figuring they could split on the road and then force their opponent to close it out in hostile territory - though they may decide that the pitchers they have lined up to start the series do better at home - or whatever. The series conclude on Saturday and Sunday.
It's now the 2nd week of October. One LCS begins on Monday, the other on Tuesday. They play for 7 consecutive days, 3 in one city, 4 in the other. Again, the higher seed gets to choose the order. These series conclude on Sunday and Monday. After a travel day for the later finisher, we're ready to begin the World Series on Wednesday - but of the 3rd week of October instead of the 4th.
If the early rounds go the distance, you're looking at 12 games in 13 days, just like the regular season. If teams decide to hide their #5 starters or ride their best bullpen arms, they're risking some serious fatigue. That gives the advantage to the teams that have the confidence to use everybody on the roster - just like they did all summer long when they were winning enough games to make it to October in the first place.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Endorsements
First of all, I want to congratulate the Tampa Bay Rays for ensuring that the Red Sox won't win 3 out of 5 World Series. This outcome actually makes the series more watchable for me. I can count myself as one of the few people who expected good things from the Rays this year, though making the World Series is above and beyond. But as much as I admire this Rays team, I'll be rooting for the Phillies.
As I had the pleasure of learning in 1987 and 1991, a World Series Championship is a special affirmation for a team's players and fans, and Philadelphia is more deserving of that this year. This Phillies team has been pretty good for a while now, winning at least 85 games in each of the past 6 seasons, but previously falling short each time. With escalating salaries and free agencies approaching, it is likely that this team will begin to come apart pretty soon, so this may be their last, best chance to win together. The Phillies' fans haven't been rewarded with a championship since 1980.
The Rays, by contrast, are just getting started. As I noted back in the spring, they should be among the class of the AL for at least the next few years. I think they'll be making future trips to the series. Also, since they drew over 20,000 fans/game for the first time since their expansion, there's some question as to how many fans they even have, especially since it took them so long to catch onto what a good team they have. Attendance should grow dramatically over the next couple of seasons, and those folks can be rewarded after they've proven their loyalty.
Secondly, I want to address the other reason I started this blog. "Center" was supposed to refer not only to the position I normally filled in my playing days, but also to my status as an independent voter. I wanted to express myself on political issues from time to time, but, in practice, my obsession with the Twins has left little time for other things. Now, with a very big election coming up in a couple of weeks, I have reason to weigh in.
I hope everyone got to see General Colin Powell's appearance on Meet the Press yesterday. If you didn't, here's a great summary.
I basically agree with everything he says there. It's not so much an endorsement of Obama, though he does appear to have the potential to be a "transformative figure." And it's not so much a rejection of John McCain, who, until the convention, consistently showed himself to be one who could put his own values and beliefs ahead of party loyalty. Rather, it's a renunciation of the direction the GOP has taken in recent years.
The conduct of the Bush administration has been repugnant to me on many levels. To name a few...
They lied to start a war, then showed utter incompetence in managing the aftermath.
They used the threat of terrorism to condone torture, extraordinary rendition, suspension of civil liberties, etc.
They couldn't be bothered to help the drowning city of New Orleans, but did everything in their power to interfere with the life and death of Terry Schiavo.
They exploited homophobia for their political gain.
They made no effort to protect the environment.
They gave every advantage to the wealthy and large corporations, while making life more difficult for working Americans. (For example, the revised bankruptcy law was designed to ensure that lenders would get more money, while average filers had to remain in debt longer. Poor banks, let's help them out!)
It goes on and on. The GOP has come to represent nothing more than deregulation and tax breaks for the big fish mixed with Christian conservatism. They should be more than that, and with guys like Powell in charge, they would be. But all their decisions seem to be based on exciting the far right, and that's a big turnoff. Because if the only way they can get their base excited is by trying to scare and divide people (Obama once sat on a board with a guy who used to be a terrorist, this is the "Real" America, etc.), basically pandering to the worst side of people, well, they've lost me.
The party that twice nominated and elected George W. Bush needs to redesign itself in a way that is more positive and inclusive. They need to listen more to the intellectuals in their camp than the rednecks. They need to seek out moderates and keep the bigots at arm's length. That's going to be hard, soul-searching work for them, and I doubt they'll make the effort unless they get their asses kicked at the polls.
So, like General Powell, I'll be voting for Barack Obama - and a better future for the GOP.
As I had the pleasure of learning in 1987 and 1991, a World Series Championship is a special affirmation for a team's players and fans, and Philadelphia is more deserving of that this year. This Phillies team has been pretty good for a while now, winning at least 85 games in each of the past 6 seasons, but previously falling short each time. With escalating salaries and free agencies approaching, it is likely that this team will begin to come apart pretty soon, so this may be their last, best chance to win together. The Phillies' fans haven't been rewarded with a championship since 1980.
The Rays, by contrast, are just getting started. As I noted back in the spring, they should be among the class of the AL for at least the next few years. I think they'll be making future trips to the series. Also, since they drew over 20,000 fans/game for the first time since their expansion, there's some question as to how many fans they even have, especially since it took them so long to catch onto what a good team they have. Attendance should grow dramatically over the next couple of seasons, and those folks can be rewarded after they've proven their loyalty.
Secondly, I want to address the other reason I started this blog. "Center" was supposed to refer not only to the position I normally filled in my playing days, but also to my status as an independent voter. I wanted to express myself on political issues from time to time, but, in practice, my obsession with the Twins has left little time for other things. Now, with a very big election coming up in a couple of weeks, I have reason to weigh in.
I hope everyone got to see General Colin Powell's appearance on Meet the Press yesterday. If you didn't, here's a great summary.
I basically agree with everything he says there. It's not so much an endorsement of Obama, though he does appear to have the potential to be a "transformative figure." And it's not so much a rejection of John McCain, who, until the convention, consistently showed himself to be one who could put his own values and beliefs ahead of party loyalty. Rather, it's a renunciation of the direction the GOP has taken in recent years.
The conduct of the Bush administration has been repugnant to me on many levels. To name a few...
They lied to start a war, then showed utter incompetence in managing the aftermath.
They used the threat of terrorism to condone torture, extraordinary rendition, suspension of civil liberties, etc.
They couldn't be bothered to help the drowning city of New Orleans, but did everything in their power to interfere with the life and death of Terry Schiavo.
They exploited homophobia for their political gain.
They made no effort to protect the environment.
They gave every advantage to the wealthy and large corporations, while making life more difficult for working Americans. (For example, the revised bankruptcy law was designed to ensure that lenders would get more money, while average filers had to remain in debt longer. Poor banks, let's help them out!)
It goes on and on. The GOP has come to represent nothing more than deregulation and tax breaks for the big fish mixed with Christian conservatism. They should be more than that, and with guys like Powell in charge, they would be. But all their decisions seem to be based on exciting the far right, and that's a big turnoff. Because if the only way they can get their base excited is by trying to scare and divide people (Obama once sat on a board with a guy who used to be a terrorist, this is the "Real" America, etc.), basically pandering to the worst side of people, well, they've lost me.
The party that twice nominated and elected George W. Bush needs to redesign itself in a way that is more positive and inclusive. They need to listen more to the intellectuals in their camp than the rednecks. They need to seek out moderates and keep the bigots at arm's length. That's going to be hard, soul-searching work for them, and I doubt they'll make the effort unless they get their asses kicked at the polls.
So, like General Powell, I'll be voting for Barack Obama - and a better future for the GOP.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Take a Look Ahead
Now that I've had a few days to recover from the 2008 season, I'm ready to take my first look forward to 2009. Many of the blogs I link to have already gotten a good start on arguments for off-season priorities, and I'm happy to join the discussion. My approach will be to establish a baseline for off-season upgrades by answering the question: What kind of team can the Twins produce from players already within their system?
The first step is to assess how many of the players who finished the season with the Twins are likely to be back next year. The answer is extremely good news. Everyone is either under contract or team control for 2009 with the exception of Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes, Eddie Guardado and Adam Everett. Furthermore, the team's payroll obligations fall so short of its capacity (something on the order of $30 million) that the Twins could easily re-sign all of those players if it so desired.
So the 2009 Twins could be exactly the same as the 2008 Twins. Would that make 2009 just as competitive? A lot of folks point to down years in Cleveland and Detroit, the strength of the White Sox, and the strong finish from the Royals as evidence that the division will be much tougher next year. On its face, I'm not sure I buy that. Age is swiftly catching up to the Tigers and Sox, the Indians diminished themselves by trading away CC Sabathia and Casey Blake, and the Royals' young talent is at least half a year behind that of the Twins. I don't expect any of these teams to stand pat this off-season, but free agent acquisitions and trades, no matter how splashy, are no guarantee of success (just ask the Tigers). There are enough weaknesses among the other members of the division that I believe the Twins could win 88 games again with the same players.
That's also because the Twins are young enough that many of their players can be reasonably expected to match or improve upon this year's performance. We've all seen Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer hit for more power than they did in 2008, for example. Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez, each just 22 for most of '08, have plenty of time to make hitting adjustments. And the rotation of Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins, having all pitched deep into September, should be even more settled and stronger down the stretch in 2009.
Certainly we expect a few players to regress or have down years (hello, Matt Guerrier). But, in general, I think it's likely that the Twins will have a lower staff ERA, allow fewer unearned runs, and remain in the top half of the AL in scoring (the BA with RISP will undoubtedly be lower, but the HR numbers should increase, which will make up for a lot of the loss). In other words, I think the Twins could run out the same squad they did in September and come away with more or less the same run differential, which would translate, on average, into about the same number of wins. Will 88 wins be good enough to take the division? Probably not, but it should be enough to keep them in the running.
But the Twins won't be running out the same squad next year. With Pat Neshek and Cuddyer returning from injuries, there are more outfielders and pitchers than spots available. Boof Bonser and Philip Humber are out of options, and will be lost if they don't make the team. And there were a couple of players whose performance doesn't merit bringing them back.
Free Agents
Guardado and Everett should be allowed to move on without a thought. Punto and Reyes deserve a little more consideration.
Shortstop is a position in which the Twins could offer someone a multi-year deal, since their is no heir-apparent to the position in the minors. But the available free agents aren't too impressive for the money they'll be demanding. If the baseline is Punto, that's not a terrible place to start. His career OPS is essentially the same as Everett's - nothing to crow about, of course, but his .320 career OBP makes him likely to be on base more than Gomez, for example. He's got good speed on the bases, and can play above-average defense at 6 positions, including SS. I'd be inclined to offer Punto a 2-year deal for around $3 million a year - then if something better comes along at SS, you've still got one of the league's most versatile bench players.
As for Reyes, anybody who thinks the Twins need to upgrade the bullpen should think twice about letting him walk. Despite missing some time and effectiveness in 2007 when he had some arm troubles, Reyes compiled a 2.14 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 126.1 IP in his 3 seasons with the club. His K/9 was 7.77, and his G/F ratio was about 3/1. Out of 531 total batters faced over his stint with the Twins, 62.7% put the ball on the ground or struck out - the sort of outcomes you're looking for when you bring in a reliever with men on base. Only 26 of 109 H were for extra bases (23.8%), and he allowed only 3 SF. Lefties hit just .202/.272/.266 against him with 3 HR and 63 K in 248 AB (25.4% struck out).
It's true that Craig Breslow and Jose Mijares pitched brilliantly for the Twins this year, but they're each relatively untested. They have just 75.2 MLB IP combined. Breslow was hurt earlier in his career by a high walk total - maybe Rick Anderson sorted that out, or maybe it was just something he was able to hide in 4+ months with the Twins that will resurface next year. Mijares was dynamite in September, but will he be as effective once the scouts catch up to him? Say he has a lousy spring training, and the team decides to give him a little more seasoning in AAA to start the season. Having Reyes on board would give the Twins that luxury. Plus, who says you only need 2 LHP in the bullpen? If 3 of your best pitchers happen to be lefties (as would appear to be the case here), why shouldn't they all make the team?
Lefty specialists can play a long time. Based on his recent track record, I wouldn't be shy about offering Reyes up to a 3-year deal at the going rate for matchup pitchers.
Arbitration Eligibles
More incredibly good news for the Twins - only Matt Guerrier and Jason Kubel are eligible for arbitration this year. This would be the time to sign Kubel to a multi-year deal. While his power numbers began to approach their potential, his BA could still probably improve. He's entering his physical prime, and appears to be over the knee injury that cost him all of 2005 and a big part of 2006. If the Twins wait one more year, and his performance improves again, the price will go up a lot. If they act now, his actual performances should make it possible to get him for something like 3 years, $20 million (+ an option year!).
As for Guerrier, I don't think his abominable finish is indicative of anything more than physical and mental burnout, and that if he were returned to the lower leverage roles he held in earlier seasons he would be effective. But with the emergence of Breslow and Mijares, and the return of Neshek, I'm not sure there's a spot for him. I'd try to trade him before arbitration looms.
Odd Men Out
Bonser and Humber must both make the team or be lost to waivers. That's not going to happen. Each finished the season pretty strongly, but neither has the overall numbers to displace other, more established members of the bullpen. I suppose Humber would have to be considered as a #5 starter should the Twins opt to trade either Perkins or Blackburn, and Bonser could get the nod if they decide not to sign Reyes and Guerrier. There is likely no room for Bobby Korecky in any case. If it were me, I'd make every effort to trade these guys before February.
The outfield is pretty crowded. His big multi-year contract assures us that Cuddyer will be starting in RF. Denard Span had way too good a season at all levels to be denied a spot. Kubel was the 2nd-best power threat on a pretty wimpy team - most of the time, he'll DH. Delmon Young, despite a mostly underwhelming season, made strides in his K/BB rate, and was much more productive in the last 2/3 of the season. And then there's Carlos Gomez, defensive wunderkind, terror on the bases, mess at the plate.
Unless the Twins opt to trade Young, the corner OF positions are set, and there's no way Gomez beats out Span next year. Span was such an effective leadoff hitter, the Twins would be nuts to trade him to make room for Gomez. So the question becomes: Do they put Gomez on the bench as a PR/defensive replacement, or send him to the minors to refine his game? I think the right thing to do is to give him 4-5 ABs every day in AAA. Just as they did with Liriano this year, the Twins need to show Gomez that he's got to produce the goods if he wants a slot on the big club, and that means learning a plate approach that puts the ball on the ground, goes the other way, takes walks, and cuts down on strikeouts. Unless he shows up in spring training with that sort of approach, I'd be inclined to option him down and let Jason Pridie fill the bench role.
As for the rotation, the Twins have 5 starters who are average or better under team control for the next 4 years. They certainly have the option of trading one for something else they'd like to upgrade, but they can't be blamed for wanting to horde them either. That means that starters at the upper levels of the minors, unless they're undeniably awesome, are all expendable. I'd put Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak on that list.
So, looking exclusively within the organization and not fantasizing about any other players who may or may not be available, the best squad the Twins can put together for next spring looks like this:
Starters:
1. Denard Span, CF
2. Alexi Casilla, 2B
3. Joe Mauer, C
4. Justin Morneau, 1B
5. Michael Cuddyer, RF
6. Jason Kubel, DH
7. Delmon Young, LF
8. Brian Buscher, 3B
9. Nick Punto, SS
Bench:
1. Mike Redmond, C
2. Brendan Harris, IF
3. Matt Tolbert, IF
4. Jason Pridie, OF
5. Randy Ruiz, DH/PH
Rotation:
1. Scott Baker, RHP
2. Francisco Liriano, LHP
3. Kevin Slowey, RHP
4. Nick Blackburn, RHP
5. Glen Perkins, LHP
Bullpen
1. Joe Nathan, Closer
2. Pat Neshek, RHP
3. Jose Mijares, LHP
4. Jesse Crain, RHP
5. Dennys Reyes, LHP
6. Craig Breslow, LHP
Cuddyer breaks up the string of Mauer/Morneau/Kubel. The relatively disappointing contributions of Young, Buscher/Harris and Punto are all a bit more palatable when they slide down a slot in the lineup. Pridie and Tolbert provide speed and glove upgrades over the 3Bs and corner OFs. And, despite his high K rate, Ruiz has compiled a strong enough minor league resume to merit at least a platoon/PH role in the Majors. Everybody else performed well in 2008 and obviously deserves a shot at holding their spots in 2009.
With a surplus of about $30 million and Bonser, Humber, Guerrier, Korecky and Duensing all crying out to be traded, there's certainly plenty of capital available for upgrades, and the front office should make an effort to spend it. But they should remember that if they'd held their cards last season, they probably would have had a 90-win team instead of 88. This team can win 88 again in 2009 - that's the baseline. Take it from there.
The first step is to assess how many of the players who finished the season with the Twins are likely to be back next year. The answer is extremely good news. Everyone is either under contract or team control for 2009 with the exception of Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes, Eddie Guardado and Adam Everett. Furthermore, the team's payroll obligations fall so short of its capacity (something on the order of $30 million) that the Twins could easily re-sign all of those players if it so desired.
So the 2009 Twins could be exactly the same as the 2008 Twins. Would that make 2009 just as competitive? A lot of folks point to down years in Cleveland and Detroit, the strength of the White Sox, and the strong finish from the Royals as evidence that the division will be much tougher next year. On its face, I'm not sure I buy that. Age is swiftly catching up to the Tigers and Sox, the Indians diminished themselves by trading away CC Sabathia and Casey Blake, and the Royals' young talent is at least half a year behind that of the Twins. I don't expect any of these teams to stand pat this off-season, but free agent acquisitions and trades, no matter how splashy, are no guarantee of success (just ask the Tigers). There are enough weaknesses among the other members of the division that I believe the Twins could win 88 games again with the same players.
That's also because the Twins are young enough that many of their players can be reasonably expected to match or improve upon this year's performance. We've all seen Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer hit for more power than they did in 2008, for example. Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez, each just 22 for most of '08, have plenty of time to make hitting adjustments. And the rotation of Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins, having all pitched deep into September, should be even more settled and stronger down the stretch in 2009.
Certainly we expect a few players to regress or have down years (hello, Matt Guerrier). But, in general, I think it's likely that the Twins will have a lower staff ERA, allow fewer unearned runs, and remain in the top half of the AL in scoring (the BA with RISP will undoubtedly be lower, but the HR numbers should increase, which will make up for a lot of the loss). In other words, I think the Twins could run out the same squad they did in September and come away with more or less the same run differential, which would translate, on average, into about the same number of wins. Will 88 wins be good enough to take the division? Probably not, but it should be enough to keep them in the running.
But the Twins won't be running out the same squad next year. With Pat Neshek and Cuddyer returning from injuries, there are more outfielders and pitchers than spots available. Boof Bonser and Philip Humber are out of options, and will be lost if they don't make the team. And there were a couple of players whose performance doesn't merit bringing them back.
Free Agents
Guardado and Everett should be allowed to move on without a thought. Punto and Reyes deserve a little more consideration.
Shortstop is a position in which the Twins could offer someone a multi-year deal, since their is no heir-apparent to the position in the minors. But the available free agents aren't too impressive for the money they'll be demanding. If the baseline is Punto, that's not a terrible place to start. His career OPS is essentially the same as Everett's - nothing to crow about, of course, but his .320 career OBP makes him likely to be on base more than Gomez, for example. He's got good speed on the bases, and can play above-average defense at 6 positions, including SS. I'd be inclined to offer Punto a 2-year deal for around $3 million a year - then if something better comes along at SS, you've still got one of the league's most versatile bench players.
As for Reyes, anybody who thinks the Twins need to upgrade the bullpen should think twice about letting him walk. Despite missing some time and effectiveness in 2007 when he had some arm troubles, Reyes compiled a 2.14 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 126.1 IP in his 3 seasons with the club. His K/9 was 7.77, and his G/F ratio was about 3/1. Out of 531 total batters faced over his stint with the Twins, 62.7% put the ball on the ground or struck out - the sort of outcomes you're looking for when you bring in a reliever with men on base. Only 26 of 109 H were for extra bases (23.8%), and he allowed only 3 SF. Lefties hit just .202/.272/.266 against him with 3 HR and 63 K in 248 AB (25.4% struck out).
It's true that Craig Breslow and Jose Mijares pitched brilliantly for the Twins this year, but they're each relatively untested. They have just 75.2 MLB IP combined. Breslow was hurt earlier in his career by a high walk total - maybe Rick Anderson sorted that out, or maybe it was just something he was able to hide in 4+ months with the Twins that will resurface next year. Mijares was dynamite in September, but will he be as effective once the scouts catch up to him? Say he has a lousy spring training, and the team decides to give him a little more seasoning in AAA to start the season. Having Reyes on board would give the Twins that luxury. Plus, who says you only need 2 LHP in the bullpen? If 3 of your best pitchers happen to be lefties (as would appear to be the case here), why shouldn't they all make the team?
Lefty specialists can play a long time. Based on his recent track record, I wouldn't be shy about offering Reyes up to a 3-year deal at the going rate for matchup pitchers.
Arbitration Eligibles
More incredibly good news for the Twins - only Matt Guerrier and Jason Kubel are eligible for arbitration this year. This would be the time to sign Kubel to a multi-year deal. While his power numbers began to approach their potential, his BA could still probably improve. He's entering his physical prime, and appears to be over the knee injury that cost him all of 2005 and a big part of 2006. If the Twins wait one more year, and his performance improves again, the price will go up a lot. If they act now, his actual performances should make it possible to get him for something like 3 years, $20 million (+ an option year!).
As for Guerrier, I don't think his abominable finish is indicative of anything more than physical and mental burnout, and that if he were returned to the lower leverage roles he held in earlier seasons he would be effective. But with the emergence of Breslow and Mijares, and the return of Neshek, I'm not sure there's a spot for him. I'd try to trade him before arbitration looms.
Odd Men Out
Bonser and Humber must both make the team or be lost to waivers. That's not going to happen. Each finished the season pretty strongly, but neither has the overall numbers to displace other, more established members of the bullpen. I suppose Humber would have to be considered as a #5 starter should the Twins opt to trade either Perkins or Blackburn, and Bonser could get the nod if they decide not to sign Reyes and Guerrier. There is likely no room for Bobby Korecky in any case. If it were me, I'd make every effort to trade these guys before February.
The outfield is pretty crowded. His big multi-year contract assures us that Cuddyer will be starting in RF. Denard Span had way too good a season at all levels to be denied a spot. Kubel was the 2nd-best power threat on a pretty wimpy team - most of the time, he'll DH. Delmon Young, despite a mostly underwhelming season, made strides in his K/BB rate, and was much more productive in the last 2/3 of the season. And then there's Carlos Gomez, defensive wunderkind, terror on the bases, mess at the plate.
Unless the Twins opt to trade Young, the corner OF positions are set, and there's no way Gomez beats out Span next year. Span was such an effective leadoff hitter, the Twins would be nuts to trade him to make room for Gomez. So the question becomes: Do they put Gomez on the bench as a PR/defensive replacement, or send him to the minors to refine his game? I think the right thing to do is to give him 4-5 ABs every day in AAA. Just as they did with Liriano this year, the Twins need to show Gomez that he's got to produce the goods if he wants a slot on the big club, and that means learning a plate approach that puts the ball on the ground, goes the other way, takes walks, and cuts down on strikeouts. Unless he shows up in spring training with that sort of approach, I'd be inclined to option him down and let Jason Pridie fill the bench role.
As for the rotation, the Twins have 5 starters who are average or better under team control for the next 4 years. They certainly have the option of trading one for something else they'd like to upgrade, but they can't be blamed for wanting to horde them either. That means that starters at the upper levels of the minors, unless they're undeniably awesome, are all expendable. I'd put Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak on that list.
So, looking exclusively within the organization and not fantasizing about any other players who may or may not be available, the best squad the Twins can put together for next spring looks like this:
Starters:
1. Denard Span, CF
2. Alexi Casilla, 2B
3. Joe Mauer, C
4. Justin Morneau, 1B
5. Michael Cuddyer, RF
6. Jason Kubel, DH
7. Delmon Young, LF
8. Brian Buscher, 3B
9. Nick Punto, SS
Bench:
1. Mike Redmond, C
2. Brendan Harris, IF
3. Matt Tolbert, IF
4. Jason Pridie, OF
5. Randy Ruiz, DH/PH
Rotation:
1. Scott Baker, RHP
2. Francisco Liriano, LHP
3. Kevin Slowey, RHP
4. Nick Blackburn, RHP
5. Glen Perkins, LHP
Bullpen
1. Joe Nathan, Closer
2. Pat Neshek, RHP
3. Jose Mijares, LHP
4. Jesse Crain, RHP
5. Dennys Reyes, LHP
6. Craig Breslow, LHP
Cuddyer breaks up the string of Mauer/Morneau/Kubel. The relatively disappointing contributions of Young, Buscher/Harris and Punto are all a bit more palatable when they slide down a slot in the lineup. Pridie and Tolbert provide speed and glove upgrades over the 3Bs and corner OFs. And, despite his high K rate, Ruiz has compiled a strong enough minor league resume to merit at least a platoon/PH role in the Majors. Everybody else performed well in 2008 and obviously deserves a shot at holding their spots in 2009.
With a surplus of about $30 million and Bonser, Humber, Guerrier, Korecky and Duensing all crying out to be traded, there's certainly plenty of capital available for upgrades, and the front office should make an effort to spend it. But they should remember that if they'd held their cards last season, they probably would have had a 90-win team instead of 88. This team can win 88 again in 2009 - that's the baseline. Take it from there.
Saturday, October 4, 2008
2008 Season Review
Home Record: 53-28
Away Record: 35-47
1st Half: 44-37
2nd Half: 44-38
Overall Record: 88-75
When a new season begins each spring, my best hope for the Twins is always that they will be in the thick of the playoff race right up to the end of the season. This season they did even better than that - they sent the season into overtime. So I'm pleased with the 2008 season, especially given the low expectations going in. With the Indians coming off a deep playoff run, and the Tigers stacked with a ludicrously strong lineup, and the Twins coming off their first sub-.500 season in 6 years and an off-season in which they'd lost their All-Star CF and Cy Young ace, most experts expected the Twins to finish with only 70-some wins. I thought they'd get 84, because I believed that Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker were bound translate their domination of AAA to the Majors, the back end of the bullpen was rock solid with Pat Neshek and Joe Nathan making their games essentially 7-inning affairs, and most of the Twins' lineup was due to improve on their below-average 2007 numbers.
Why were they able to exceed expectations?
1. The starters were better than anyone could have hoped.
Livan Hernandez, signed late in the off-season to replace Johan Santana's innings (chuckle, chuckle), got off to a terrific start in April and May. Nick Blackburn lived up to his off-season ranking as the Twins' #1 prospect, far out-pitching Carlos Silva, the man he replaced in the rotation. Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker came back from early season injuries to show that they were, indeed, ready to win in the Majors. After Boof Bonser faltered in May, Glen Perkins came up and consistently pitched deep into games until September. And Francisco Liriano overcame his April control problems to dominate AAA, returning to the Twins in August and providing them with 9 solid outings in 11 starts down the stretch.
2. Return to Form
Several of the players who had shone in 2006 but struggled in 2007 regained their earlier success. Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel and Nick Punto all saw a substantial bump in their OPS from '07 to '08. Dennys Reyes and Joe Nathan improved on their ERA and K/9
3. The Kids Can Hit
Denard Span, Alexi Casilla and Brian Buscher came up to make significant contributions over the course of the season. Their prior numbers from the minors gave little indication that they were capable of making such a positive impact. Together with better numbers from players mentioned above, the Twins were able to improve their offensive numbers enormously: they scored 111 more runs than last year, improving from 12th in the league to 3rd; they raised their team BA 25 points to .289, also good for 3rd in the league; and raised their OPS 27 points from 13th up to 9th.
4. Smallball Works!
The Twins managed to outscore all but 3 MLB teams despite finishing 29th with just 111 HR. They did it by leading all of baseball in triples, sacrifice flies, and BA with RISP. They also finished first in the AL in sacrifice bunts, bunt hits, and IF hits, and improved to 5th in the league in OBP and SB. In short, they dinked and dunked and worked counts and ran their little butts off, in the process producing more offense than the Tigers and Yankees, among others.
Despite the many successes, we have reason to feel that the team could have done even better. It certainly wouldn't have taken much more for them to be looking forward to a home playoff game vs. Tampa tomorrow instead of watching the White Sox. Why did the Twins come up short?
1. Pat Neshek's Injury
When he went down with elbow soreness on May 8th, I knew we were in for some trouble, but I had no idea how bad it would get. With Neshek and Nathan locking down the 8th and 9th innings, I had imagined that the Twins would only lose a handful of games all season when leading after 7 innings. In fact, after Neshek went down, they lost 11 times in that situation, plus a few others they were leading after 6. Would a healthy Neshek have turned enough of those around to get the Twins into playoffs (i.e. 1)? Undoubtedly.
2. The Kids Hit the Wall
It was pretty clear by mid-June that all four youngsters in the Twins' rotation (Baker, Blackburn, Perkins and Slowey) were out-pitching Livan. When he was exchanged for Liriano, the rotation was among the best in the league in August. But over the last 2.5 weeks, they seemed to run out of gas. They were only able to give the Twins 6 quality starts over the final 17 games (including the 1-game playoff). One more QS in Baltimore or Cleveland might have done the trick.
3. Bad Defense
It's become a truism around the league that the Twins always play good defense, but that certainly wasn't the case this year. They finished 12th in the league in fielding percentage and errors, resulting in 70 unearned runs, 4th most in the league (narrowly edging Chicago and Detroit by 1 run). That was by far the most this decade, 8 more than the 62 unearned runs they allowed in 2007. From 2002-2006, the Twins averaged just 51 unearned runs per season. When so many of those unearned runs seemed to come in critical situations (like when Nathan was on the mound), it's easy to imagine that had the Twins played the sort of defense we're used to seeing from them, they'd still be playing right now.
4. Bill Smith
It would be fair to say that the Twins' success this year came in spite of, and not because of, the efforts of freshman general manager Bill Smith. The three free-agent hitters he signed - Mike Lamb, Adam Everett and Craig Monroe - combined to hit .219/.280/.348 with 11 HR and 95 K in 526 AB. He signed Livan and re-signed Juan Rincon - they combined for a 5.58 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 167.2 IP. Over $20 million was invested in these players - more than 1/4 the total team payroll - and none of them was a significant part of the team that finished the season.
Smith traded for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Carlos Gomez. Young ranked last among qualified AL left-fielders in HR and OPS, and 2nd to last in OBP and RBI. Harris was below average when compared to other AL infielders, both at the plate and in the field. And Gomez was not only the worst-hitting CF in the league, he was the 3rd-worst hitter period in terms of OPS, and he finished 4th in the league in strikeouts. Worse, he stood in the way of Denard Span, the team's rightful leadoff hitter, for most of 4 months.
As the Twins' bullpen was beginning to struggle, Smith passed on worthy waiver candidates to bolster the 'pen, such as Chad Bradford, waiting until the last week of August to acquire Eddie Guardado - who proceeded to pitch rather badly for the Twins. The only good move he made was the acquisition of Craig Breslow.
The other 4 players Smith acquired in the off-season - Jason Pridie, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra - all had underwhelming seasons in the minors. They are now, perhaps, hopelessly low on the depth chart - there is no obvious spot for Humber, Mulvey or Pridie in the Twins' rotation, bullpen, or OF for next year, and several pitchers in the system performed better than Guerra. Most people didn't think 1 year of Santana at $13.75 million, with a chance to go deep into the playoffs and 2 high draft picks was worth what he could potentially bring in a trade. Had Smith accepted the Red Sox package of John Lester, Coco Crisp, Justin Masterson and Jed Lowrie, that would have been true. Considering the quality and strategic value of what he got from the Mets, I'm not sure it was.
On to grades for individual players. I'll be limiting the discussion to hitters with more than 50 ABs (sorry, Matt Macri) and pitchers with more than 10 IP (you lucked out, Eddie).
Flat Out Awesome
Joe Mauer - The team's MVP, Mauer led the league in BA for the second time and was 2nd in OBP. He was far and away the AL's most productive catcher, starting 135 games behind the plate (2nd most), and leading AL backstops in PA and TB. Defensively, he led the league in fielding percentage and fewest errors and passed balls, and he was 3rd in CS%. To top it off, he guided a young starting rotation to big league success.
Joe Nathan - Don't be put off by the 6 blown saves. There were errors or shaky defense behind him in 4 of them. For the season, Nathan had the best ERA of his career (1.33), averaged less than a baserunner per inning (0.90 WHIP) and more than a strikeout per inning (9.84 K/9). Thank goodness he was around to anchor a very shaky bullpen.
Denard Span - Everywhere he went this year, Span was terrific. His (SfC adjusted) hitting line in spring training was .310/.420/.429. In 40 games at AAA Rochester it was .340/.434/.481. And he finished 93 MLB games at .294/.387/.432. If only someone had realized at the end of spring training that he belonged in the leadoff spot!
Craig Breslow - In three brief MLB stints before joining the Twins, Breslow's numbers were solid - a 2.95 ERA in 36.2 IP. I guess it was the 24 BB in those innings that kept him from catching on. After coming to the Twins, he cut his walks down to 14 in 38.2 IP, with a 1.63 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with 0 HR allowed and a 7.45 K/9. Could be a keeper.
Jose Mijares - An off-season car accident in Venezuela kept this promising prospect off the field until midsummer. He performed well at AA New Britain, earning a September call up. He didn't get into a game until the middle of the month - by the end, he'd established himself as the setup man of the moment. He allowed just 1 ER on 3 H and 0 BB in his first 10.1 MLB IP. Also a keeper.
Most Satisfying
Scott Baker - I figured Baker would turn out to be the ace of the staff this year (it certainly wasn't going to be Livan!), and he delivered. After an illness hampered his progression during spring training, he had a solid April, then lost just about all of May to the DL. In the 22 starts after his return, he averaged 6.1 IP with a 3.29 ERA. Plus, he was at his best in some of the most critical situations of the season - after his 4 rotation-mates were blown to bits in Chicago, he responded with 1 ER in 7 IP vs. CC Sabathia; he allowed only 5 ER in 20.2 IP over 3 starts on the Twins' harrowing 14-game road trip; he allowed just 1 ER on 9 H and 2 BB over 2 starts on the season's final home stand. He's earned the opening-day start for 2009.
Dennys Reyes - The situational lefty had another fine year for the Twins. The few times he blew saves really hurt, but 3 BS in 75 appearances isn't too bad. He had a fine 2.33 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 7.58 K/9 and a terrific 2.53 G/F ratio. He held lefties to a .202 BA and .535 OPS.
Justin Morneau - Though this was his weakest HR output since 2005 (when he spent some time on the DL), Morneau still had a very productive season, setting career highs in doubles and walks and fewest strikeouts, and coming one short of his career best in RBI. Despite the falloff in the 2nd half (.903 OPS pre-All Star break, .831 after) he managed to drive in 20+ runs in every month of the season. This year, the 2nd half falloff, particularly his miserable final 8 games (3 for 30, 1 RBI, 7K) cost him a shot at his 2nd MVP.
Francisco Liriano - The overall numbers (3.91 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 5.5 IP/start, 7.93 K/9) are terrific for someone in their first year back from Tommy John surgery. But when Liriano was called up in April to replace an injured Kevin Slowey, his 3 starts were a total disaster. He spent the next 3 months in Rochester, compiling a 3.28 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 113 K over 118 IP. When he came back up to the Twins in August to replace Livan, his numbers were superb (2.74 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 6 IP/start, 8.22 K/9). Between the 2 levels, he threw 194 innings. Next year, he should be even stronger.
Jesse Crain - Another pitcher in his first year after major surgery, Crain also delivered as well as could be hoped. His velocity and movement were great, and he only blew 3 leads in 66 appearances. His K/9 rate was the best of his career, and his ERA was close to his career average. He walked a few more guys than usual, especially early in the season, but that wasn't unexpected. He should also be even stronger next year.
Kevin Slowey - The best pitcher in AAA last season, Slowey began to show his promise at the Major League level in 2008. His K/BB ratio was better than 5/1, helping him to a 1.15 WHIP over 27 starts. He allowed just 6 more HR than in 2007 while pitching nearly 100 more innings. Just 24 years old, he should be ready to surpass 200 innings next year as a solid #3 starter.
Nick Blackburn - I think you've got to love Blackburn's rookie performance as much as Slowey's first year. As the only Twins starter with a significantly high ground ball rate, he filled the Carlos Silva role on the team (immeasurably better than Silva himself did in Seattle). He gave up a lot of hits, but they were mostly singles, and he induced a lot of DPs. He doesn't walk very many, and he keeps the ball in the yard (23 HR in 33 starts). He clearly tired at the end of the season, averaging just over 4 IP/start with 6 HR, 8 BB and WHIP over 2.00 in his final 4 starts. But he was money in the 1-game playoff in Chicago. He should be able to give the Twins 200+ innings in 2009.
Nick Punto - With Mike Lamb, Adam Everett and Brendan Harris joining the team, it didn't seem like Punto would be needed much this year. But when Everett went on the DL for about half the season, it was clear that Punto's range at short far exceeded that of Harris. Best of all, his bat bounced back to its 2006 level. So, by season's end, Punto was the regular SS. He nearly matched his career-best '06 XBH totals in 120 fewer ABs, and was similarly close in steals. His .865 ZR was among the best in the AL. I'll take it.
Alexi Casilla - By mid-May, the Twins had 3 middle-infielders on the DL, so they were forced to insert Alexi Casilla into the lineup, though he was hitting just .219/.250/.350 through 32 games at AAA. He stole the 2B job by hitting .340/.417/.520 the rest of May, and was hitting healthily over .300 until he went on the DL himself in late July. He wasn't the same after his return, hitting just .225/.299/.289 the rest of the way. His K/BB rate took a big step in the right direction, and his .830 ZR at 2nd put him in the top third in the AL. He's only 24, so there's plenty of time for him to refine his game further.
Not Too Shabby
Glen Perkins - Until September, Perkins' season was an unqualified success. He had pitched 6 or more innings in 17 of 21 starts with an ERA under 4.00. But he crashed hard in the final month, allowing a 7.45 ERA and 2.02 WHIP with 7 HR in just 19.1 IP over 5 starts. He amassed 181.3 IP between AAA and the Majors. He should also be able to make the jump to 200 innings next year.
Brian Buscher - After being hideously snakebit in spring training, Buscher started the year in Rochester, where he hit .319/.402/.514 with 8 HR and 30 RBI in 52 games. The walks and XBH did not follow him to the majors, but he still hit .294/.340/.390 and drove in 47 runs with some exceedingly timely hitting. He hit .316/.362/.437 with all 13 of his XBH vs. RHP, so he's an excellent candidate for a 3B platoon - though his defense needs to get a lot better.
Mike Redmond - Joe Mauer's monster year left Redmond with his fewest games and ABs since he was a rookie 10 years ago. His offensive numbers slipped for the 2nd straight year, but he still managed to hit .287 and drive in 12 runs in only 28 starts behind the dish. Not bad for a 37-year-old.
Jason Kubel - The numbers were career-bests almost across the board: Games, R, H, RBI, HR, triples, BB, OPS. Yet I think Kubel is capable of hitting .300. He came up 13 H shy of that mark - 1 every 2 weeks on average. Even if they were all singles, that would have lifted his overall line to .300/.360/.499 - pretty close to Morneau's numbers. With everybody else in the lineup hitting singles, the Twins could definitely use another Morneau in the heart of the order.
Matt Tolbert - It was a big surprise when Tolbert made the team out of spring training, but he justified the decision by getting off to a hot start in April. A hand injury knocked him out from mid-May until September, when he acquitted himself quite well in 30 ABs. Overall he hit .283/.322/.389 and was 7/8 stealing bases - not bad for a rookie nobody thought would make the team!
Brendan Harris - Harris started the season at 2nd base, then played himself onto the bench thanks to poor defense and hitting by early May. A slew of injuries forced his return to the lineup a couple of weeks later as the SS, where he made fewer errors but showed limited range and still hit pretty poorly. By season's end, he was platooning with Buscher at 3rd base, and actually had a pretty good 2nd half, hitting .272/.353/.434 after the All-Star break and drastically cutting down on his strikeouts (many of which were looking).
Bobby Korecky - Rochester's closer got a brief call-up in late April, and played pretty well, memorably getting a base hit and his first win in the same game vs. Texas. Despite that success, he was not recalled until September. His first appearance in Toronto was brutal, but otherwise he pitched fine the rest of the month, allowing just 1 ER in 7 IP despite a rather high WHIP. He's 29, he only struck out 6 in 17.2 IP, so he probably doesn't have much of a future with the Twins, but he gave them a decent contribution as a rookie this year.
Philip Humber - The second member of the Santana trade to appear for the Twins, Humber had a terrific spring, but then struggled for most of the season in AAA. He finished strong enough (2.62 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 8.18 K/9 over his final 10 appearances) to earn a September call-up. He finished Korecky's ghastly first inning in pretty shaky fashion himself, but then was solid the rest of the way, allowing 5 ER on 8 H and 5 BB with 6 K over 11 IP (4.09 ERA, 1.18 WHIP).
Not So Good
Michael Cuddyer - It was a forgettable season for Cuddyer. He injured his hand sliding into 3rd base in the 5th game of the season. He returned after 3 weeks and had a very poor May (.212 BA with 23 K in 118 AB), but rebounded nicely in June (.866 OPS, 10/9 K/BB). Another finger injury forced him to the DL late that month. He was a day or two from being recalled in August when he was struck by a line drive in a rehab game in AAA and broke his foot. He finally returned in mid-September and finished the season as a DH/PH. The result of all that physical turmoil was the worst year of Cuddyer's career.
Delmon Young - Since he was acquired to make up for Torii Hunter's bat, Young's performance was a bit disappointing. He hit fewer HR and doubles than last year, though his SLG% was almost identical. His plate discipline improved - his K/BB ratio went from about 5/1 in 2007 to 3/1 this year. Also, he got better as the season went along, hitting .260/.317/.333 in April and May, and after that hit .305/.346/.444. He's still just 22, so there's reason to think next year will be better still.
Carlos Gomez - Though it was apparent in spring training that Gomez was completely out of control at the plate, on the bases and in the field, the Twins not only chose to make him the CF over Span, they put him in the leadoff spot, where he wasted more plate appearances than anyone else on the team. A strong September enabled him to finish the year at .258/.296/.360, and by year's end he seemed to have his throws under control. He is a superlative defensive CF, but his stratispheric K/BB rate (142/25) outweighs the other pieces of his game right now.
Pat Neshek - Neshek blew a couple of hold opportunities on the Twins' first road trip in April, including serving up a grand slam in Chicago. However, he hadn't allowed any runs in his other 11 appearances that month, and finished April with a very respectable 1.00 WHIP and 11.25 K/9 through his first 12 IP. His elbow may have already been weakening in early May, when he allowed runs in each of his 2 appearances. The Neshek of '06 and '07 would have been enough to put the Twins in the postseason.
Boof Bonser - I'd assess Bonser this way: good stuff, not good at pitching with men on base, usually has men on base. After a fine April in which he gave the Twins 5/6 QS, he combusted in May, allowing an 8.60 ERA and losing his spot in the rotation. His K/BB rate improved in the 'pen, but he still found himself giving up runs almost every other outing. He finished the season pretty well, posting a 3.38 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 8.59 K/9 before his final bizarre outing vs. KC, so maybe he's turned the corner.
Brian Bass - The last pitcher to make the team out of spring training was Bass, ostensibly filling the long-relief/mop-up role. Apart from one absurdly bad game in Detroit (7 ER on 7 H in 1.1 IP), he actually pitched quite well in the first 3 months, compiling a 3.37 ERA in his 28 other appearances spanning 50.2 IP. Trouble was, he was very hittable, allowing a .303 BAA, and he walked about 3 guys per 9 IP, and only struck out about 4 per 9 IP. When the loss of Neshek forced him to assume a more critical role, his natural shortcomings were accentuated. He was DFA in mid-August and picked up by Baltimore.
Randy Ruiz - After languishing in the minors for a decade despite putting up pretty good numbers (including .320/.366/.536 at Rochester - good enough for the batting title), Ruiz finally got a shot in the show with the Twins. He hit pretty well in August, but went just 1 for 12 in September with 7 K. He struck out 21 times in just 62 AB, which is pretty alarming, though not totally out of line with the 116 K he racked up in 416 ABs in AAA. He hit quite a bit better vs. LHP, so he might be a good candidate for a DH platoon with Kubel for 2009.
Flat Out Awful
Craig Monroe - Brought in as a potential platoon DH/extra OF, Monroe was out to prove that his pathetic 2007 campaign was a fluke. It wasn't. While his power returned, his average remained very low (.202) and strikeouts very high (48 in 163 AB). Worse, his left/right splits were reversed, so that he hit just .138/.219/.230 vs. LHP. Released at the beginning of August.
Mike Lamb - His track record as an NL role-player was good enough to get him a 2-year deal with the Twins. Though he hadn't had as many as 400 ABs in a season since his rookie year, there was every reason to think that he'd give the Twins plenty of doubles and some HR, as well as a respectable OBP while playing decent 3rd base. Nope. He hit just .233/.276/.322 in 236 ABs with the Twins, collecting only 16 XBH (1 HR). DFA on August 25th.
Adam Everett - Nobody expected him to hit, but .213/.278/.323 was poor even for him (though his K/BB rate was the best of his career, and he managed to drive in 20 runs in just 127 ABs). But when his balky shoulder contributed to his worst fielding numbers since his rookie year, and he failed to even attempt a SB, he pretty much left the Twins with a black hole in the lineup whenever he was out there.
Juan Rincon - With his numbers in steady decline over the past 4 seasons, I was surprised that Bill Smith offered Rincon a contract for 2008. At first, it looked like a good move, as Rincon's ERA peaked at 3.24 on May 16th. From then on, he was a mess, allowing 13 ER on 21 H (3 HR) and 8 BB over his final 11.1 innings with the team (10.33 ERA, 2.56 WHIP). Released on June 18th.
Livan Hernandez - With his numbers in steady decline over the past 4 seasons, I was surprised that Bill Smith offered Livan a contract for 2008. Well, maybe not surprised, but definitely bummed. With so many unproven starters, the front office wanted a proven "innings eater" at the top of the rotation. At first, it looked like a good move, as Livan delivered quality starts in 7 of his first 10 appearances and pitched 6 or more innings in 9 of 10. From then on, he was a mess, allowing 57 ER on 119 H and 18 BB over his final 74.2 innings with the team (6.87 ERA, 1.85 WHIP). DFA on August 1st.
Matt Guerrier - When Neshek went down in early May, the Twins asked Guerrier to step in to the 8th inning role. That was a dicey move, because Guerrier had been struggling with his control early in the year (8/6 K/BB ratio in April). He got away with it through May and most of June, blowing only 1 lead before June 30th. From then on, he lost 7 games. His season spun out of control in August and September, when he combined for a 10.07 ERA and 2.29 WHIP over his final 19.1 IP and was on the mound when the winning runs scored in 6 different games. If he'd been the Guerrier of 2007, the Twins would be in the playoffs.
Away Record: 35-47
1st Half: 44-37
2nd Half: 44-38
Overall Record: 88-75
When a new season begins each spring, my best hope for the Twins is always that they will be in the thick of the playoff race right up to the end of the season. This season they did even better than that - they sent the season into overtime. So I'm pleased with the 2008 season, especially given the low expectations going in. With the Indians coming off a deep playoff run, and the Tigers stacked with a ludicrously strong lineup, and the Twins coming off their first sub-.500 season in 6 years and an off-season in which they'd lost their All-Star CF and Cy Young ace, most experts expected the Twins to finish with only 70-some wins. I thought they'd get 84, because I believed that Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker were bound translate their domination of AAA to the Majors, the back end of the bullpen was rock solid with Pat Neshek and Joe Nathan making their games essentially 7-inning affairs, and most of the Twins' lineup was due to improve on their below-average 2007 numbers.
Why were they able to exceed expectations?
1. The starters were better than anyone could have hoped.
Livan Hernandez, signed late in the off-season to replace Johan Santana's innings (chuckle, chuckle), got off to a terrific start in April and May. Nick Blackburn lived up to his off-season ranking as the Twins' #1 prospect, far out-pitching Carlos Silva, the man he replaced in the rotation. Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker came back from early season injuries to show that they were, indeed, ready to win in the Majors. After Boof Bonser faltered in May, Glen Perkins came up and consistently pitched deep into games until September. And Francisco Liriano overcame his April control problems to dominate AAA, returning to the Twins in August and providing them with 9 solid outings in 11 starts down the stretch.
2. Return to Form
Several of the players who had shone in 2006 but struggled in 2007 regained their earlier success. Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel and Nick Punto all saw a substantial bump in their OPS from '07 to '08. Dennys Reyes and Joe Nathan improved on their ERA and K/9
3. The Kids Can Hit
Denard Span, Alexi Casilla and Brian Buscher came up to make significant contributions over the course of the season. Their prior numbers from the minors gave little indication that they were capable of making such a positive impact. Together with better numbers from players mentioned above, the Twins were able to improve their offensive numbers enormously: they scored 111 more runs than last year, improving from 12th in the league to 3rd; they raised their team BA 25 points to .289, also good for 3rd in the league; and raised their OPS 27 points from 13th up to 9th.
4. Smallball Works!
The Twins managed to outscore all but 3 MLB teams despite finishing 29th with just 111 HR. They did it by leading all of baseball in triples, sacrifice flies, and BA with RISP. They also finished first in the AL in sacrifice bunts, bunt hits, and IF hits, and improved to 5th in the league in OBP and SB. In short, they dinked and dunked and worked counts and ran their little butts off, in the process producing more offense than the Tigers and Yankees, among others.
Despite the many successes, we have reason to feel that the team could have done even better. It certainly wouldn't have taken much more for them to be looking forward to a home playoff game vs. Tampa tomorrow instead of watching the White Sox. Why did the Twins come up short?
1. Pat Neshek's Injury
When he went down with elbow soreness on May 8th, I knew we were in for some trouble, but I had no idea how bad it would get. With Neshek and Nathan locking down the 8th and 9th innings, I had imagined that the Twins would only lose a handful of games all season when leading after 7 innings. In fact, after Neshek went down, they lost 11 times in that situation, plus a few others they were leading after 6. Would a healthy Neshek have turned enough of those around to get the Twins into playoffs (i.e. 1)? Undoubtedly.
2. The Kids Hit the Wall
It was pretty clear by mid-June that all four youngsters in the Twins' rotation (Baker, Blackburn, Perkins and Slowey) were out-pitching Livan. When he was exchanged for Liriano, the rotation was among the best in the league in August. But over the last 2.5 weeks, they seemed to run out of gas. They were only able to give the Twins 6 quality starts over the final 17 games (including the 1-game playoff). One more QS in Baltimore or Cleveland might have done the trick.
3. Bad Defense
It's become a truism around the league that the Twins always play good defense, but that certainly wasn't the case this year. They finished 12th in the league in fielding percentage and errors, resulting in 70 unearned runs, 4th most in the league (narrowly edging Chicago and Detroit by 1 run). That was by far the most this decade, 8 more than the 62 unearned runs they allowed in 2007. From 2002-2006, the Twins averaged just 51 unearned runs per season. When so many of those unearned runs seemed to come in critical situations (like when Nathan was on the mound), it's easy to imagine that had the Twins played the sort of defense we're used to seeing from them, they'd still be playing right now.
4. Bill Smith
It would be fair to say that the Twins' success this year came in spite of, and not because of, the efforts of freshman general manager Bill Smith. The three free-agent hitters he signed - Mike Lamb, Adam Everett and Craig Monroe - combined to hit .219/.280/.348 with 11 HR and 95 K in 526 AB. He signed Livan and re-signed Juan Rincon - they combined for a 5.58 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 167.2 IP. Over $20 million was invested in these players - more than 1/4 the total team payroll - and none of them was a significant part of the team that finished the season.
Smith traded for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Carlos Gomez. Young ranked last among qualified AL left-fielders in HR and OPS, and 2nd to last in OBP and RBI. Harris was below average when compared to other AL infielders, both at the plate and in the field. And Gomez was not only the worst-hitting CF in the league, he was the 3rd-worst hitter period in terms of OPS, and he finished 4th in the league in strikeouts. Worse, he stood in the way of Denard Span, the team's rightful leadoff hitter, for most of 4 months.
As the Twins' bullpen was beginning to struggle, Smith passed on worthy waiver candidates to bolster the 'pen, such as Chad Bradford, waiting until the last week of August to acquire Eddie Guardado - who proceeded to pitch rather badly for the Twins. The only good move he made was the acquisition of Craig Breslow.
The other 4 players Smith acquired in the off-season - Jason Pridie, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra - all had underwhelming seasons in the minors. They are now, perhaps, hopelessly low on the depth chart - there is no obvious spot for Humber, Mulvey or Pridie in the Twins' rotation, bullpen, or OF for next year, and several pitchers in the system performed better than Guerra. Most people didn't think 1 year of Santana at $13.75 million, with a chance to go deep into the playoffs and 2 high draft picks was worth what he could potentially bring in a trade. Had Smith accepted the Red Sox package of John Lester, Coco Crisp, Justin Masterson and Jed Lowrie, that would have been true. Considering the quality and strategic value of what he got from the Mets, I'm not sure it was.
On to grades for individual players. I'll be limiting the discussion to hitters with more than 50 ABs (sorry, Matt Macri) and pitchers with more than 10 IP (you lucked out, Eddie).
Flat Out Awesome
Joe Mauer - The team's MVP, Mauer led the league in BA for the second time and was 2nd in OBP. He was far and away the AL's most productive catcher, starting 135 games behind the plate (2nd most), and leading AL backstops in PA and TB. Defensively, he led the league in fielding percentage and fewest errors and passed balls, and he was 3rd in CS%. To top it off, he guided a young starting rotation to big league success.
Joe Nathan - Don't be put off by the 6 blown saves. There were errors or shaky defense behind him in 4 of them. For the season, Nathan had the best ERA of his career (1.33), averaged less than a baserunner per inning (0.90 WHIP) and more than a strikeout per inning (9.84 K/9). Thank goodness he was around to anchor a very shaky bullpen.
Denard Span - Everywhere he went this year, Span was terrific. His (SfC adjusted) hitting line in spring training was .310/.420/.429. In 40 games at AAA Rochester it was .340/.434/.481. And he finished 93 MLB games at .294/.387/.432. If only someone had realized at the end of spring training that he belonged in the leadoff spot!
Craig Breslow - In three brief MLB stints before joining the Twins, Breslow's numbers were solid - a 2.95 ERA in 36.2 IP. I guess it was the 24 BB in those innings that kept him from catching on. After coming to the Twins, he cut his walks down to 14 in 38.2 IP, with a 1.63 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with 0 HR allowed and a 7.45 K/9. Could be a keeper.
Jose Mijares - An off-season car accident in Venezuela kept this promising prospect off the field until midsummer. He performed well at AA New Britain, earning a September call up. He didn't get into a game until the middle of the month - by the end, he'd established himself as the setup man of the moment. He allowed just 1 ER on 3 H and 0 BB in his first 10.1 MLB IP. Also a keeper.
Most Satisfying
Scott Baker - I figured Baker would turn out to be the ace of the staff this year (it certainly wasn't going to be Livan!), and he delivered. After an illness hampered his progression during spring training, he had a solid April, then lost just about all of May to the DL. In the 22 starts after his return, he averaged 6.1 IP with a 3.29 ERA. Plus, he was at his best in some of the most critical situations of the season - after his 4 rotation-mates were blown to bits in Chicago, he responded with 1 ER in 7 IP vs. CC Sabathia; he allowed only 5 ER in 20.2 IP over 3 starts on the Twins' harrowing 14-game road trip; he allowed just 1 ER on 9 H and 2 BB over 2 starts on the season's final home stand. He's earned the opening-day start for 2009.
Dennys Reyes - The situational lefty had another fine year for the Twins. The few times he blew saves really hurt, but 3 BS in 75 appearances isn't too bad. He had a fine 2.33 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 7.58 K/9 and a terrific 2.53 G/F ratio. He held lefties to a .202 BA and .535 OPS.
Justin Morneau - Though this was his weakest HR output since 2005 (when he spent some time on the DL), Morneau still had a very productive season, setting career highs in doubles and walks and fewest strikeouts, and coming one short of his career best in RBI. Despite the falloff in the 2nd half (.903 OPS pre-All Star break, .831 after) he managed to drive in 20+ runs in every month of the season. This year, the 2nd half falloff, particularly his miserable final 8 games (3 for 30, 1 RBI, 7K) cost him a shot at his 2nd MVP.
Francisco Liriano - The overall numbers (3.91 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 5.5 IP/start, 7.93 K/9) are terrific for someone in their first year back from Tommy John surgery. But when Liriano was called up in April to replace an injured Kevin Slowey, his 3 starts were a total disaster. He spent the next 3 months in Rochester, compiling a 3.28 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 113 K over 118 IP. When he came back up to the Twins in August to replace Livan, his numbers were superb (2.74 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 6 IP/start, 8.22 K/9). Between the 2 levels, he threw 194 innings. Next year, he should be even stronger.
Jesse Crain - Another pitcher in his first year after major surgery, Crain also delivered as well as could be hoped. His velocity and movement were great, and he only blew 3 leads in 66 appearances. His K/9 rate was the best of his career, and his ERA was close to his career average. He walked a few more guys than usual, especially early in the season, but that wasn't unexpected. He should also be even stronger next year.
Kevin Slowey - The best pitcher in AAA last season, Slowey began to show his promise at the Major League level in 2008. His K/BB ratio was better than 5/1, helping him to a 1.15 WHIP over 27 starts. He allowed just 6 more HR than in 2007 while pitching nearly 100 more innings. Just 24 years old, he should be ready to surpass 200 innings next year as a solid #3 starter.
Nick Blackburn - I think you've got to love Blackburn's rookie performance as much as Slowey's first year. As the only Twins starter with a significantly high ground ball rate, he filled the Carlos Silva role on the team (immeasurably better than Silva himself did in Seattle). He gave up a lot of hits, but they were mostly singles, and he induced a lot of DPs. He doesn't walk very many, and he keeps the ball in the yard (23 HR in 33 starts). He clearly tired at the end of the season, averaging just over 4 IP/start with 6 HR, 8 BB and WHIP over 2.00 in his final 4 starts. But he was money in the 1-game playoff in Chicago. He should be able to give the Twins 200+ innings in 2009.
Nick Punto - With Mike Lamb, Adam Everett and Brendan Harris joining the team, it didn't seem like Punto would be needed much this year. But when Everett went on the DL for about half the season, it was clear that Punto's range at short far exceeded that of Harris. Best of all, his bat bounced back to its 2006 level. So, by season's end, Punto was the regular SS. He nearly matched his career-best '06 XBH totals in 120 fewer ABs, and was similarly close in steals. His .865 ZR was among the best in the AL. I'll take it.
Alexi Casilla - By mid-May, the Twins had 3 middle-infielders on the DL, so they were forced to insert Alexi Casilla into the lineup, though he was hitting just .219/.250/.350 through 32 games at AAA. He stole the 2B job by hitting .340/.417/.520 the rest of May, and was hitting healthily over .300 until he went on the DL himself in late July. He wasn't the same after his return, hitting just .225/.299/.289 the rest of the way. His K/BB rate took a big step in the right direction, and his .830 ZR at 2nd put him in the top third in the AL. He's only 24, so there's plenty of time for him to refine his game further.
Not Too Shabby
Glen Perkins - Until September, Perkins' season was an unqualified success. He had pitched 6 or more innings in 17 of 21 starts with an ERA under 4.00. But he crashed hard in the final month, allowing a 7.45 ERA and 2.02 WHIP with 7 HR in just 19.1 IP over 5 starts. He amassed 181.3 IP between AAA and the Majors. He should also be able to make the jump to 200 innings next year.
Brian Buscher - After being hideously snakebit in spring training, Buscher started the year in Rochester, where he hit .319/.402/.514 with 8 HR and 30 RBI in 52 games. The walks and XBH did not follow him to the majors, but he still hit .294/.340/.390 and drove in 47 runs with some exceedingly timely hitting. He hit .316/.362/.437 with all 13 of his XBH vs. RHP, so he's an excellent candidate for a 3B platoon - though his defense needs to get a lot better.
Mike Redmond - Joe Mauer's monster year left Redmond with his fewest games and ABs since he was a rookie 10 years ago. His offensive numbers slipped for the 2nd straight year, but he still managed to hit .287 and drive in 12 runs in only 28 starts behind the dish. Not bad for a 37-year-old.
Jason Kubel - The numbers were career-bests almost across the board: Games, R, H, RBI, HR, triples, BB, OPS. Yet I think Kubel is capable of hitting .300. He came up 13 H shy of that mark - 1 every 2 weeks on average. Even if they were all singles, that would have lifted his overall line to .300/.360/.499 - pretty close to Morneau's numbers. With everybody else in the lineup hitting singles, the Twins could definitely use another Morneau in the heart of the order.
Matt Tolbert - It was a big surprise when Tolbert made the team out of spring training, but he justified the decision by getting off to a hot start in April. A hand injury knocked him out from mid-May until September, when he acquitted himself quite well in 30 ABs. Overall he hit .283/.322/.389 and was 7/8 stealing bases - not bad for a rookie nobody thought would make the team!
Brendan Harris - Harris started the season at 2nd base, then played himself onto the bench thanks to poor defense and hitting by early May. A slew of injuries forced his return to the lineup a couple of weeks later as the SS, where he made fewer errors but showed limited range and still hit pretty poorly. By season's end, he was platooning with Buscher at 3rd base, and actually had a pretty good 2nd half, hitting .272/.353/.434 after the All-Star break and drastically cutting down on his strikeouts (many of which were looking).
Bobby Korecky - Rochester's closer got a brief call-up in late April, and played pretty well, memorably getting a base hit and his first win in the same game vs. Texas. Despite that success, he was not recalled until September. His first appearance in Toronto was brutal, but otherwise he pitched fine the rest of the month, allowing just 1 ER in 7 IP despite a rather high WHIP. He's 29, he only struck out 6 in 17.2 IP, so he probably doesn't have much of a future with the Twins, but he gave them a decent contribution as a rookie this year.
Philip Humber - The second member of the Santana trade to appear for the Twins, Humber had a terrific spring, but then struggled for most of the season in AAA. He finished strong enough (2.62 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 8.18 K/9 over his final 10 appearances) to earn a September call-up. He finished Korecky's ghastly first inning in pretty shaky fashion himself, but then was solid the rest of the way, allowing 5 ER on 8 H and 5 BB with 6 K over 11 IP (4.09 ERA, 1.18 WHIP).
Not So Good
Michael Cuddyer - It was a forgettable season for Cuddyer. He injured his hand sliding into 3rd base in the 5th game of the season. He returned after 3 weeks and had a very poor May (.212 BA with 23 K in 118 AB), but rebounded nicely in June (.866 OPS, 10/9 K/BB). Another finger injury forced him to the DL late that month. He was a day or two from being recalled in August when he was struck by a line drive in a rehab game in AAA and broke his foot. He finally returned in mid-September and finished the season as a DH/PH. The result of all that physical turmoil was the worst year of Cuddyer's career.
Delmon Young - Since he was acquired to make up for Torii Hunter's bat, Young's performance was a bit disappointing. He hit fewer HR and doubles than last year, though his SLG% was almost identical. His plate discipline improved - his K/BB ratio went from about 5/1 in 2007 to 3/1 this year. Also, he got better as the season went along, hitting .260/.317/.333 in April and May, and after that hit .305/.346/.444. He's still just 22, so there's reason to think next year will be better still.
Carlos Gomez - Though it was apparent in spring training that Gomez was completely out of control at the plate, on the bases and in the field, the Twins not only chose to make him the CF over Span, they put him in the leadoff spot, where he wasted more plate appearances than anyone else on the team. A strong September enabled him to finish the year at .258/.296/.360, and by year's end he seemed to have his throws under control. He is a superlative defensive CF, but his stratispheric K/BB rate (142/25) outweighs the other pieces of his game right now.
Pat Neshek - Neshek blew a couple of hold opportunities on the Twins' first road trip in April, including serving up a grand slam in Chicago. However, he hadn't allowed any runs in his other 11 appearances that month, and finished April with a very respectable 1.00 WHIP and 11.25 K/9 through his first 12 IP. His elbow may have already been weakening in early May, when he allowed runs in each of his 2 appearances. The Neshek of '06 and '07 would have been enough to put the Twins in the postseason.
Boof Bonser - I'd assess Bonser this way: good stuff, not good at pitching with men on base, usually has men on base. After a fine April in which he gave the Twins 5/6 QS, he combusted in May, allowing an 8.60 ERA and losing his spot in the rotation. His K/BB rate improved in the 'pen, but he still found himself giving up runs almost every other outing. He finished the season pretty well, posting a 3.38 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 8.59 K/9 before his final bizarre outing vs. KC, so maybe he's turned the corner.
Brian Bass - The last pitcher to make the team out of spring training was Bass, ostensibly filling the long-relief/mop-up role. Apart from one absurdly bad game in Detroit (7 ER on 7 H in 1.1 IP), he actually pitched quite well in the first 3 months, compiling a 3.37 ERA in his 28 other appearances spanning 50.2 IP. Trouble was, he was very hittable, allowing a .303 BAA, and he walked about 3 guys per 9 IP, and only struck out about 4 per 9 IP. When the loss of Neshek forced him to assume a more critical role, his natural shortcomings were accentuated. He was DFA in mid-August and picked up by Baltimore.
Randy Ruiz - After languishing in the minors for a decade despite putting up pretty good numbers (including .320/.366/.536 at Rochester - good enough for the batting title), Ruiz finally got a shot in the show with the Twins. He hit pretty well in August, but went just 1 for 12 in September with 7 K. He struck out 21 times in just 62 AB, which is pretty alarming, though not totally out of line with the 116 K he racked up in 416 ABs in AAA. He hit quite a bit better vs. LHP, so he might be a good candidate for a DH platoon with Kubel for 2009.
Flat Out Awful
Craig Monroe - Brought in as a potential platoon DH/extra OF, Monroe was out to prove that his pathetic 2007 campaign was a fluke. It wasn't. While his power returned, his average remained very low (.202) and strikeouts very high (48 in 163 AB). Worse, his left/right splits were reversed, so that he hit just .138/.219/.230 vs. LHP. Released at the beginning of August.
Mike Lamb - His track record as an NL role-player was good enough to get him a 2-year deal with the Twins. Though he hadn't had as many as 400 ABs in a season since his rookie year, there was every reason to think that he'd give the Twins plenty of doubles and some HR, as well as a respectable OBP while playing decent 3rd base. Nope. He hit just .233/.276/.322 in 236 ABs with the Twins, collecting only 16 XBH (1 HR). DFA on August 25th.
Adam Everett - Nobody expected him to hit, but .213/.278/.323 was poor even for him (though his K/BB rate was the best of his career, and he managed to drive in 20 runs in just 127 ABs). But when his balky shoulder contributed to his worst fielding numbers since his rookie year, and he failed to even attempt a SB, he pretty much left the Twins with a black hole in the lineup whenever he was out there.
Juan Rincon - With his numbers in steady decline over the past 4 seasons, I was surprised that Bill Smith offered Rincon a contract for 2008. At first, it looked like a good move, as Rincon's ERA peaked at 3.24 on May 16th. From then on, he was a mess, allowing 13 ER on 21 H (3 HR) and 8 BB over his final 11.1 innings with the team (10.33 ERA, 2.56 WHIP). Released on June 18th.
Livan Hernandez - With his numbers in steady decline over the past 4 seasons, I was surprised that Bill Smith offered Livan a contract for 2008. Well, maybe not surprised, but definitely bummed. With so many unproven starters, the front office wanted a proven "innings eater" at the top of the rotation. At first, it looked like a good move, as Livan delivered quality starts in 7 of his first 10 appearances and pitched 6 or more innings in 9 of 10. From then on, he was a mess, allowing 57 ER on 119 H and 18 BB over his final 74.2 innings with the team (6.87 ERA, 1.85 WHIP). DFA on August 1st.
Matt Guerrier - When Neshek went down in early May, the Twins asked Guerrier to step in to the 8th inning role. That was a dicey move, because Guerrier had been struggling with his control early in the year (8/6 K/BB ratio in April). He got away with it through May and most of June, blowing only 1 lead before June 30th. From then on, he lost 7 games. His season spun out of control in August and September, when he combined for a 10.07 ERA and 2.29 WHIP over his final 19.1 IP and was on the mound when the winning runs scored in 6 different games. If he'd been the Guerrier of 2007, the Twins would be in the playoffs.
Friday, October 3, 2008
September Review
Twins Record: 11-15
Overall Record: 88-75
2nd in AL Central by 1 game
After 4 straight winning months, it turned out the Twins would have made the playoffs if they'd just gone .500 in September. Instead, they had their worst record for any month of the season, finishing tied with the White Sox, and lost the division in a scintillating 1-game playoff by a 1-0 score.
Starting pitching, the Twins' greatest strength in August, let them down a bit in September. In 26 games (including the playoff), the Twins got just 12 quality starts. Only Scott Baker was strong down the stretch - perhaps not surprising, since he was the member of the rotation with the most MLB experience coming into the season. In 5 starts, he averaged 6.1 IP and a 2.53 ERA. The other 4 starters had ERAs of 4.66 or higher, and averaged just over 5 IP/start. With the middle relievers continuing to struggle, the scores started to get a little out of hand. The Twins' staff allowed 5 or more runs only 10 times in 29 August games, or about 34% of the time - it happened 12 times in 26 September games, about 46% of the time.
That meant the offense had to play even better than they did in August, but that trailed off as well. After averaging almost 5.6 runs/game in August, the Twins produced just a smidge over 5.0 runs/game in September. Denard Span, Nick Punto, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Brian Buscher and Alexi Casilla all saw their production decline in the season's final weeks, though many of them continued to draw walks at a substantial rate. The baserunners were out there, they just weren't being knocked in like they were earlier in the season.
Timing isn't everything in this league, but it's a factor, and the Twins found themselves bowled over by some of the hottest teams in the league - Toronto at the beginning of the month, and Kansas City at the end. The Twins went just 1-5 vs. those momentum trains - outside of that, they did manage to play .500 ball in September. No excuse, and the Twins certainly were able to feast on some cold teams themselves over the course of the season, just another thing to consider.
Since this is the end, I'll change the grading system slightly. As usual, I'm going to stick to the regulars: only hitters with as many ABs as Mike Redmond, pitchers with as many innings as Dennys Reyes.
Just What We Needed
Joe Mauer - The MVP of this year's team, in my opinion. Down the stretch, when we need him most, he was at his best, appearing in every game but one and amassing a .365/.414/.490 line with a season-high 19 RBI to lead him to his 2nd batting title.
Craig Breslow - What right did he have to be this good? 0 ER allowed in 9 IP over 13 appearances.
Jose Mijares - A terrific debut for Mijares, who had missed much of the season recovering from an off-season elbow injury. The only run he allowed in 10.1 IP was let in by Matt Guerrier. I wish Gardy had figured out how good he was earlier in the month.
Jesse Crain - The 'pen's best right-hander after Joe Nathan. Crain actually outpitched Nathan this month, allowing just 1 ER in 8.1 IP while striking out 8.
Scott Baker - The Twins' best starter down the stretch, Baker's only rough start came when a rainout in Baltimore forced him to start on 3 days' rest in Cleveland. His performances on the final home stand helped ensure that the season ended tied.
Delmon Young - .333/.368/.455 was Young's best line in any month of the season. The guys around him in the lineup didn't do too much, so the runs and RBIs weren't impressive, but he did his part to contribute.
Brendan Harris - Harris made the most of his platoon role in September, batting .324/.419/.459. He delivered some pretty important pinch-hits as well, including the double that started the Twins' tying rally in the finale vs. the White Sox at the Metrodome.
Carlos Gomez - Wouldn't it be wonderful if he could play like this all the time? .289/.330/.470 with 10 XBH and 5/6 SB, plus some spectacular, game-saving catches.
Matt Tolbert - When he came off the DL in Toronto, Tolbert was swinging the bat great. I was surprised he didn't get more playing time down the stretch. He finished the month 10/30 with 3 triples and 3/3 SB.
Mike Redmond - Mauer made sure he wasn't needed much, but when he did get in there, Redmond went 5/15 with 3 RBI, making him and Mauer the best catching tandem in the league once again.
As Good As Could Be Expected
Denard Span - Span moves down a category only because his OPS slipped under .800. Despite seeing his BA drop to .278 for the month, he managed to keep his OBP very high (.391), which is what a leadoff man needs to do.
Nick Punto - After a fantastic July and August, Punto fell off quite a ways to .268/.348/.305. Still, that's right around his career averages, and a .348 OBP with 6/7 steals and 10 R from the #8 hitter isn't too bad.
Joe Nathan - Coming off 3 straight months of ERAs below 1.00, Nathan's 2.53 ERA for September stands out. All that damage came in one brutal loss at Cleveland. His blown save for the month was the result of poor defense behind him.
Dennys Reyes - Like Nathan, Reyes' September line (7.2 IP, 6 H, 9 K, 2.35 ERA, 10/5 GB/FB) looks great, especially when you consider that 2/5 BB he allowed were intentional. The only 2 R he allowed were solo homers, but one of them was a killer, a tying shot by Curtis Granderson in the 8th inning at the Metrodome - another of the games the Twins would love to have back.
Michael Cuddyer - .200/.400/.267 is certainly nothing to get excited about. But considering that Cuddyer had been out since late June and made his September comeback without the benefit of a rehab assignment, I think a .400 OBP (and 3/4 K/BB) was a pretty solid contribution for 15 ABs.
Let Us Down
Justin Morneau - Though he drove in 20+ runs for the 6th consecutive month, overall Morneau faded down the stretch. He finished September at .243/.298/.398, and drove in just 1 run on 2 XBH over the season's final 11 games.
Jason Kubel - The Twins might still be playing if Kubel had performed this month the way he did last September (.325/.404/.584). Instead, he came in .239/.313/.465. Though more than half his hits were for extra bases, there just weren't enough of them.
Brian Buscher - Pretty much a non-factor, hitting .222/.333/.234 with just 1 XBH in 45 ABs. At least he showed the best plate discipline of his MLB career so far (12/8 K/BB), making himself reasonably useful with a .333 OBP.
Alexi Casilla - Too bad he got injured when he did - he wasn't the same afterward. He finished up with just 1 XBH in September, hitting .221/.321/.253, and he missed some key bunting opportunities in the season's final week. Still, the 14/13 K/BB ratio is great, something to build on for next year.
Francisco Liriano - After being infallible in his first 8 starts since his recall, Liriano had a couple of clunkers at the end. Not bad for his first year back from Tommy John surgery, though.
Boof Bonser - I thought Boof's final appearance vs. KC pretty much summed up his season: 4 straight hits to begin an inning, only one of them hit hard. 14 K in his 14.1 IP, and a respectable WHIP before that final outing.
Kevin Slowey - Seemed to run out of gas in his final 2 starts before being beaten out of his last game by a Juan Uribe line drive. He gave up as many hits in 26.2 IP this month as he did in 37 IP in August.
Glen Perkins - Nobody hit the wall harder than Perkins. After going 6 or more IP in every start since June 30th, he failed to do it once in September. He allowed 6 HR in 35.1 IP in August, and 7 HR in 19.1 IP this month. His ERA was 7.45, and his WHIP was over 2.00. After skipping his start in the Chicago series, he ended the season on a good note with 5 quality innings vs. KC.
Nick Blackburn - Didn't hit the wall quite as hard as Perkins, but still had some ugly starts down the stretch. He allowed a season-high 8 HR, though his overall GB/FB numbers were very good. Whatever stock he lost in Baltimore and Tampa, he made it back up with his gutsy performance in the playoff vs. the White Sox.
Matt Guerrier - September was just as bad as August for Guerrier. The ERA was slightly lower (10.00 vs. 10.13), the WHIP was higher (2.56 vs. 2.06) - but when you're talking about numbers that bad, who cares? He allowed one or more baserunners in each of 9 appearances over the final 3+ weeks, taking the loss in 3 crushing home losses (and he was on the mound for another road loss). He's probably the LVP of at least the 2nd half of the season.
Overall Record: 88-75
2nd in AL Central by 1 game
After 4 straight winning months, it turned out the Twins would have made the playoffs if they'd just gone .500 in September. Instead, they had their worst record for any month of the season, finishing tied with the White Sox, and lost the division in a scintillating 1-game playoff by a 1-0 score.
Starting pitching, the Twins' greatest strength in August, let them down a bit in September. In 26 games (including the playoff), the Twins got just 12 quality starts. Only Scott Baker was strong down the stretch - perhaps not surprising, since he was the member of the rotation with the most MLB experience coming into the season. In 5 starts, he averaged 6.1 IP and a 2.53 ERA. The other 4 starters had ERAs of 4.66 or higher, and averaged just over 5 IP/start. With the middle relievers continuing to struggle, the scores started to get a little out of hand. The Twins' staff allowed 5 or more runs only 10 times in 29 August games, or about 34% of the time - it happened 12 times in 26 September games, about 46% of the time.
That meant the offense had to play even better than they did in August, but that trailed off as well. After averaging almost 5.6 runs/game in August, the Twins produced just a smidge over 5.0 runs/game in September. Denard Span, Nick Punto, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Brian Buscher and Alexi Casilla all saw their production decline in the season's final weeks, though many of them continued to draw walks at a substantial rate. The baserunners were out there, they just weren't being knocked in like they were earlier in the season.
Timing isn't everything in this league, but it's a factor, and the Twins found themselves bowled over by some of the hottest teams in the league - Toronto at the beginning of the month, and Kansas City at the end. The Twins went just 1-5 vs. those momentum trains - outside of that, they did manage to play .500 ball in September. No excuse, and the Twins certainly were able to feast on some cold teams themselves over the course of the season, just another thing to consider.
Since this is the end, I'll change the grading system slightly. As usual, I'm going to stick to the regulars: only hitters with as many ABs as Mike Redmond, pitchers with as many innings as Dennys Reyes.
Just What We Needed
Joe Mauer - The MVP of this year's team, in my opinion. Down the stretch, when we need him most, he was at his best, appearing in every game but one and amassing a .365/.414/.490 line with a season-high 19 RBI to lead him to his 2nd batting title.
Craig Breslow - What right did he have to be this good? 0 ER allowed in 9 IP over 13 appearances.
Jose Mijares - A terrific debut for Mijares, who had missed much of the season recovering from an off-season elbow injury. The only run he allowed in 10.1 IP was let in by Matt Guerrier. I wish Gardy had figured out how good he was earlier in the month.
Jesse Crain - The 'pen's best right-hander after Joe Nathan. Crain actually outpitched Nathan this month, allowing just 1 ER in 8.1 IP while striking out 8.
Scott Baker - The Twins' best starter down the stretch, Baker's only rough start came when a rainout in Baltimore forced him to start on 3 days' rest in Cleveland. His performances on the final home stand helped ensure that the season ended tied.
Delmon Young - .333/.368/.455 was Young's best line in any month of the season. The guys around him in the lineup didn't do too much, so the runs and RBIs weren't impressive, but he did his part to contribute.
Brendan Harris - Harris made the most of his platoon role in September, batting .324/.419/.459. He delivered some pretty important pinch-hits as well, including the double that started the Twins' tying rally in the finale vs. the White Sox at the Metrodome.
Carlos Gomez - Wouldn't it be wonderful if he could play like this all the time? .289/.330/.470 with 10 XBH and 5/6 SB, plus some spectacular, game-saving catches.
Matt Tolbert - When he came off the DL in Toronto, Tolbert was swinging the bat great. I was surprised he didn't get more playing time down the stretch. He finished the month 10/30 with 3 triples and 3/3 SB.
Mike Redmond - Mauer made sure he wasn't needed much, but when he did get in there, Redmond went 5/15 with 3 RBI, making him and Mauer the best catching tandem in the league once again.
As Good As Could Be Expected
Denard Span - Span moves down a category only because his OPS slipped under .800. Despite seeing his BA drop to .278 for the month, he managed to keep his OBP very high (.391), which is what a leadoff man needs to do.
Nick Punto - After a fantastic July and August, Punto fell off quite a ways to .268/.348/.305. Still, that's right around his career averages, and a .348 OBP with 6/7 steals and 10 R from the #8 hitter isn't too bad.
Joe Nathan - Coming off 3 straight months of ERAs below 1.00, Nathan's 2.53 ERA for September stands out. All that damage came in one brutal loss at Cleveland. His blown save for the month was the result of poor defense behind him.
Dennys Reyes - Like Nathan, Reyes' September line (7.2 IP, 6 H, 9 K, 2.35 ERA, 10/5 GB/FB) looks great, especially when you consider that 2/5 BB he allowed were intentional. The only 2 R he allowed were solo homers, but one of them was a killer, a tying shot by Curtis Granderson in the 8th inning at the Metrodome - another of the games the Twins would love to have back.
Michael Cuddyer - .200/.400/.267 is certainly nothing to get excited about. But considering that Cuddyer had been out since late June and made his September comeback without the benefit of a rehab assignment, I think a .400 OBP (and 3/4 K/BB) was a pretty solid contribution for 15 ABs.
Let Us Down
Justin Morneau - Though he drove in 20+ runs for the 6th consecutive month, overall Morneau faded down the stretch. He finished September at .243/.298/.398, and drove in just 1 run on 2 XBH over the season's final 11 games.
Jason Kubel - The Twins might still be playing if Kubel had performed this month the way he did last September (.325/.404/.584). Instead, he came in .239/.313/.465. Though more than half his hits were for extra bases, there just weren't enough of them.
Brian Buscher - Pretty much a non-factor, hitting .222/.333/.234 with just 1 XBH in 45 ABs. At least he showed the best plate discipline of his MLB career so far (12/8 K/BB), making himself reasonably useful with a .333 OBP.
Alexi Casilla - Too bad he got injured when he did - he wasn't the same afterward. He finished up with just 1 XBH in September, hitting .221/.321/.253, and he missed some key bunting opportunities in the season's final week. Still, the 14/13 K/BB ratio is great, something to build on for next year.
Francisco Liriano - After being infallible in his first 8 starts since his recall, Liriano had a couple of clunkers at the end. Not bad for his first year back from Tommy John surgery, though.
Boof Bonser - I thought Boof's final appearance vs. KC pretty much summed up his season: 4 straight hits to begin an inning, only one of them hit hard. 14 K in his 14.1 IP, and a respectable WHIP before that final outing.
Kevin Slowey - Seemed to run out of gas in his final 2 starts before being beaten out of his last game by a Juan Uribe line drive. He gave up as many hits in 26.2 IP this month as he did in 37 IP in August.
Glen Perkins - Nobody hit the wall harder than Perkins. After going 6 or more IP in every start since June 30th, he failed to do it once in September. He allowed 6 HR in 35.1 IP in August, and 7 HR in 19.1 IP this month. His ERA was 7.45, and his WHIP was over 2.00. After skipping his start in the Chicago series, he ended the season on a good note with 5 quality innings vs. KC.
Nick Blackburn - Didn't hit the wall quite as hard as Perkins, but still had some ugly starts down the stretch. He allowed a season-high 8 HR, though his overall GB/FB numbers were very good. Whatever stock he lost in Baltimore and Tampa, he made it back up with his gutsy performance in the playoff vs. the White Sox.
Matt Guerrier - September was just as bad as August for Guerrier. The ERA was slightly lower (10.00 vs. 10.13), the WHIP was higher (2.56 vs. 2.06) - but when you're talking about numbers that bad, who cares? He allowed one or more baserunners in each of 9 appearances over the final 3+ weeks, taking the loss in 3 crushing home losses (and he was on the mound for another road loss). He's probably the LVP of at least the 2nd half of the season.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Broken
White Sox 1, Twins 0
Well, shoot.
If someone had told me Nick Blackburn was going to allow 1 R in 6.1 IP in that game last night, I would have said the Twins will win for sure. His effort was exactly what the Twins needed, enabling them to forego every dicey member of the bullpen and hand the ball straight to Jose Mijares and Joe Nathan. The only damage he allowed was a titanic solo HR from Jim Thome - and as Bert Blyleven often reminds us, that's not a big deal in the grand scheme of things. It was the performance the Twins needed in a high-pressure game on the road.
But...
John Danks was even better, and on 3 days' rest to boot. I'm astounded that the White Sox were able to string together 3 consecutive outstanding starts from pitchers on short rest. I would have been amazed if they'd all thrown quality starts, but these were well beyond that. Danks allowed only 2 H, and really had only one threat to contend with after Alexi Casilla lined into a DP with Denard Span in motion in the 1st inning.
Michael Cuddyer led off the 5th with a double, advanced to 3rd on a fly ball from Delmon Young, and attempted to score on a shallow fly ball from Brendan Harris. Junior Griffey made a pretty weak throw, bouncing twice before the plate despite the relatively short range from which he let it go, yet it still beat Cuddyer - the ball just wasn't hit deep enough. Cuddyer did everything he could, slamming into AJ Pierzynski just after the ball arrived, but he wasn't able to jar it loose. The Twins did everything they could with what they had in that inning, but the Sox made the play.
That was how it went - last night, the Sox, a mediocre fielding team at best, made all the plays. I'll put it another way - they didn't make any mistakes. The Twins just made the one to Thome, and that was enough.
So the 2008 season ends with the Twins in 2nd place, an accomplishment no one would have expected them to achieve prior to the season. I'll break down September, review the season and look forward to next year in the coming days. But I want to remind you that the division wasn't lost in that hard-fought, extremely well-played 1-0 game last night. As I stated in my post yesterday, the division was lost 5-4 in KC, or Boston, or 3-2 in Oakland, or 4-2 in Seattle, or 4-3 in Toronto. We can proud of the road game the Twins played on September 30th - it's so many of the earlier road games that let us down.
Well, shoot.
If someone had told me Nick Blackburn was going to allow 1 R in 6.1 IP in that game last night, I would have said the Twins will win for sure. His effort was exactly what the Twins needed, enabling them to forego every dicey member of the bullpen and hand the ball straight to Jose Mijares and Joe Nathan. The only damage he allowed was a titanic solo HR from Jim Thome - and as Bert Blyleven often reminds us, that's not a big deal in the grand scheme of things. It was the performance the Twins needed in a high-pressure game on the road.
But...
John Danks was even better, and on 3 days' rest to boot. I'm astounded that the White Sox were able to string together 3 consecutive outstanding starts from pitchers on short rest. I would have been amazed if they'd all thrown quality starts, but these were well beyond that. Danks allowed only 2 H, and really had only one threat to contend with after Alexi Casilla lined into a DP with Denard Span in motion in the 1st inning.
Michael Cuddyer led off the 5th with a double, advanced to 3rd on a fly ball from Delmon Young, and attempted to score on a shallow fly ball from Brendan Harris. Junior Griffey made a pretty weak throw, bouncing twice before the plate despite the relatively short range from which he let it go, yet it still beat Cuddyer - the ball just wasn't hit deep enough. Cuddyer did everything he could, slamming into AJ Pierzynski just after the ball arrived, but he wasn't able to jar it loose. The Twins did everything they could with what they had in that inning, but the Sox made the play.
That was how it went - last night, the Sox, a mediocre fielding team at best, made all the plays. I'll put it another way - they didn't make any mistakes. The Twins just made the one to Thome, and that was enough.
So the 2008 season ends with the Twins in 2nd place, an accomplishment no one would have expected them to achieve prior to the season. I'll break down September, review the season and look forward to next year in the coming days. But I want to remind you that the division wasn't lost in that hard-fought, extremely well-played 1-0 game last night. As I stated in my post yesterday, the division was lost 5-4 in KC, or Boston, or 3-2 in Oakland, or 4-2 in Seattle, or 4-3 in Toronto. We can proud of the road game the Twins played on September 30th - it's so many of the earlier road games that let us down.
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