Capps and Trade

On Thursday night, the Twins traded AAA C Wilson Ramos and A+ LHP Joe Testa to the Washington Nationals for CL Matt Capps and $500,000. First, the bad news:

• This isn't much of an upgrade at the Closer position. As Geek and Gleeman pointed out, Jon Rauch and Capps have performed pretty similarly over the last few seasons. Each has blown 4 saves this season, though Capps has had 5 more opportunities. We'll never know how Rauch would have done as the closer for the remainder of 2010, but I doubt it would have been particularly worse than what Capps will do.
• The Twins bought high on Capps. He's got an ERA about 3/4 of a run below his career average, and was named to the All Star team for the first time. His ERA, BB/9 and HR/9 all spiked in 2009, after which he was eventually non-tendered by the Pirates. Had the Twins been interested in him over the winter, they probably could have traded him straight up for Testa. Now, his stock may never be higher.
• The Twins sold low on Ramos. There was a ton of buzz around Ramos thanks to his strong performances in the Venezuelan Winter League, Spring Training, and his first couple of games with the Twins. However, his first half in Rochester was pretty dismal: he hit just .210/.252/.310 with 4 HR and about a 4/1 K/BB ratio before the break. But he's been hot since, hitting .388/.412/.510 in about 50 PA. Certainly not sustainable over the long run, but maybe an indication that he was finally getting comfortable at AAA and on his way to posting overall numbers that might approach league average for the season. That, from a 22-year-old with limited experience above A+ ball, might have been enough for the scouts to dream on. Waiting even just another month might have brought the Twins a significantly better return for Ramos.

Now, the good news:

• Adding Capps makes the 2010 Twins better. Putting him in the closer role creates a trickle-down effect throughout the rest of the bullpen. Rauch threw at least 70 innings in each season from 2006-2009, but this year is on pace for about 60 IP. He's appeared in just 9 games in July, totaling 8.1 IP. Moving him from the closer role will probably lead to longer and more frequent appearances for Rauch, which will be a good thing. Nick Blackburn was optioned to Rochester to make room for Capps, meaning that mop-up innings he might have been getting will probably go to Anthony Slama, and the middle innings of close games (like last Friday in Baltimore) will go to one of the more accomplished members of the 'pen, like Matt Guerrier or Jesse Crain. This move should also mean less strain on Guerrier, making him likely to maintain his performance deeper into the season. The Twins are likely to get a couple of short starts a week from here on out, and adding a good reliever like Capps means that the bullpen is comprised of 7 pretty solid guys - there are no glaring weak spots anymore. Furthermore, Blackburn will get an opportunity to work through his troubles as a starter, and will remain stretched out in the event that the Twins need an emergency start somewhere down the road.
• This gives the Twins some depth for 2011. Capps will be under team control next year. He will get a raise in arbitration, but will still be making less than market value for a closer. Rauch, Guerrier and Crain are all eligible for free agency next year, and I would be surprised if the Twins were able to retain more than one of them. We hope that Joe Nathan will be recovered from Tommy John surgery and ready to resume the closer role at the beginning of next season. If he's not, the Twins can turn to Capps, filling the other bullpen slots with serfs like Slama, Alex Burnett, Kyle Waldrop and Rob Delaney, all of whom are proving themselves to varying degrees at the upper levels. Pat Neshek will be available as well. Should Nathan bounce back like Billy Wagner, the Twins might be able to trade Capps in the spring for a return similar to what they've given up here. Speaking of which,
• The Twins didn't give up anything they were going to need in the future. If the plan is to have Joe Mauer catching more than 75% of the Twins' games for the foreseeable future, Ramos is just a backup. Should the Twins be dissatisfied with Jose Morales and/or Drew Butera, they can find a veteran to fill that role easily enough. Right-handed hitting catchers aren't that difficult to come by during the offseason. The Rockies and Blue Jays each picked up productive players for a bargain, just as the Twins did when they signed Mike Redmond years ago. Testa struggled at AA and was rather old for A+. He was projecting as a LOOGY at best, another commodity that is readily available in the free agent market. There's nothing wrong with turning something you can't use into something you can.

I don't love this deal. Selling low and buying high is a bad way to invest in the stock market, and those principles generally apply to baseball as well. I wish the Twins had gotten more for Ramos; I wish they'd paid less for Capps. However, adding Capps makes the Twins more likely to win, not because he's an awesome closer, but because he compliments the other pieces of the bullpen. It means Gardy can have a quicker hook if Scott Baker or Kevin Slowey are struggling. It makes it more likely that the 'pen will be able to keep the score close until the offense can do some damage. So, ultimately, I'm OK with it.

Make the First Move

For the first time in nearly 2 months, before the Twins swept the Tigers at Target Field in the first week of May, things are getting crowded at the top of the AL Central standings. Since the end of that series, the Twins have been stagnant, going 21-23 over the past 44 games. Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn have been inconsistent, Francisco Liriano had a run of terrible luck in May, and Orlando Hudson and JJ Hardy have spent a lot of time on the DL. That's probably the biggest reason for the Twins' holding pattern. Those guys were the big offseason acquisitions, along with Jim Thome, who has spent most of the last 7 weeks on the bench. Without those guys in the lineup, this is basically the same Twins team as last season, the one that didn't get itself over .500 to stay until the last half of September.

Meanwhile, the Tigers and White Sox have been fattening up on a cupcake interleague schedule. The Sox are on a 14-2 run thanks to recent series against the Indians, Tigers, Cubs, Pirates, Nats and Braves. The Tigers had an 8-1 home stand against the Pirates, Nats and Diamondbacks. Atlanta wasn't able to slow down the Sox, but the Mets set the Tigers back a bit. Still, both teams sit within 2.5 games of the Twins, suddenly feeling like they can win the division.

As these teams are currently constituted, the Twins are still the class of the division. Even with recent hot streaks from the competition, they have an enormous edge in run differential: +46 for the Twins, +2 for the Tigers, -9 for the White Sox. At the midpoint of the season next weekend, we're still likely to find that the Twins are on pace to win 90-92 games, while the Tigers and White Sox are on pace for 84-86 wins.

What will the Tigers do to make up the 6 wins they'll need to catch the Twins in the 2nd half? They are doing as well as they are thanks to 2 rookies playing way over their heads - expect less production from Austin Jackson and Brendan Boesch in the 2nd half. Their rotation is in tatters, putting extra pressure on their bullpen. They play terrible defense and have a couple of huge holes in their lineup, even with the rookies playing well and aging players like Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen and Johnny Damon producing. Their payroll is already sky-high thanks to a string of bad contracts, and they're not drawing well in the recession-stricken Detroit market. Plus, they expended much of their minor league capital acquiring Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera a couple years ago, and Jarrod Washburn and Aubrey Huff last year. They need another starter and an IF who has value with both the bat and the glove, but can they afford to do what it takes to land those players?

As for the White Sox, their pitching staff is in terrific shape, but their low-OBP offense means that they're going to have to pitch brilliantly all the time in order to win. They'll need a couple of impact bats, somewhere in the IF or maybe at C or DH, to take them over the top. But they also blew out their farm system picking up Jake Peavy last year, and have a top 12 payroll to go with bottom 12 attendance.

It's already going to be expensive for Dave Dombrowski and Kenny Williams to upgrade their rosters mid-season, but I don't doubt that either has the will to do it if things stay as they are for the next few weeks. However, if the Twins were to significantly upgrade their roster before the Tigers and White Sox had a chance to act, it might change the calculus enough to force the competition to concede. If the Twins were able to add 4-6 wins of value to the team themselves, the other contenders would then have to add about 10 wins in order to catch them, and I doubt either team can really afford that this year.

The most straightforward way to add that kind of value would be to acquire Cliff Lee from the Mariners. The Twins' present rotation has been uneven beyond Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano. I believe Scott Baker will ultimately prove to be an asset, but the lower he drops in the rotation, the better it looks. Right now, it's a rotation that can probably win the division, but not one that can be expected to out-pitch the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays in October. Lee would change that, giving the Twins 2 aces and 2 above-average pitchers to send to the mound in the playoffs. He has been worth 3.7 WAR in just 11 GS so far. If he keeps up that rate of production for the rest of the season, we could give the Twins 5-6 wins above Nick Blackburn, single-handedly pushing their win total into the mid to upper 90s. Plus, he's a Twins type of pitcher, relentlessly throwing strikes at an even better rate than Pavano and Baker.

What would it take to acquire him? He costs about $5M for the remainder of the season, and will almost certainly garner 2 first-round draft picks in 2011 when he signs his mega-deal in the offseason. Seattle got him for 3 prospects last December - 1 was a 4-star and the others were in the 3-star range. One would think that with nearly half a season gone he could be had for less than that, but there's going to be a bidding war for him as the summer goes on, and Jack Z. isn't going to forgo that unless the deal is sweet indeed. Fangraphs recently estimated Lee's value as including a top hitting prospect and some other goodies. I would think they'd want a former first-rounder and supplemental first-rounder to compensate for their lost draft picks, plus somebody pretty promising to make up for Lee's remaining value this season.

For me, the blow-them-away, you've got to take it now deal for Cliff Lee begins with Ben Revere and Wilson Ramos. Both are top-60 prospects at least, and neither has a place in the Twins' future everyday lineup. Now that Denard Span has become an efficient base stealer, there's really nothing in Revere's game that should be able to supplant him. Plus, Span is under contract until the middle of the decade. The corner OF positions are better filled by more powerful bats like that of Joe Benson, who is at the same level as Revere and could be ready to take over RF from Jason Kubel/Michael Cuddyer in 2012. Revere is a valuable prospect, but not to the Twins.

Ramos is a plus defender with a good bat (though he hasn't shown it much at AAA Rochester this year). Still, he's young for the level, and projects to be at least a solid regular for years to come. With superstar Joe Mauer getting the bulk of the work behind the plate, Ramos is never going to see that kind of time with the Twins. It's a luxury to have such a talented backup, but solid, RH-hitting backups can be found every offseason, and Jose Morales still looks to me like a serviceable backup for the future.

That takes care of the 1st-rounder and the value for Lee. As for the final piece, I'd try to send over a recent late-round pick like Carlos Gutierrez or Kyle Waldrop. If the Mariners like Trevor Plouffe and the Twins want to keep JJ Hardy for 2011, I could throw him in instead. There seems to be some buzz in the Mariners blogosphere around Kevin Slowey, whose fly-ball tendencies would play pretty well at Safeco Field with Seattle's go-get-it OF defense. I like Slowey, and would love to see him around here for a few more years. However, the Twins have used their 1st-round pick in the last 2 drafts on pitchers who project to arrive in the big league rotation rather quickly, and with Blackburn perhaps rashly under contract for the next few seasons, Kyle Gibson and Alex Wimmers would likely be putting the most pressure on Slowey. I definitely prefer him to Blackburn, but I don't see either one of them pitching in October, and Lee is clearly better than both.

Three talented players with 1st or 2nd-round pedigree, all of whom could be on the field for the Mariners in 2011 and under team control until at least 2013. That might be enough to entice them to move Cliff Lee early. The Twins, for their trouble, would get him for 17-18 starts instead of 12, and then get 2 high draft picks next season to replace what they'd lost this year. And they wouldn't be losing anything they need to be counting on for the long term anyway. The Twins' players and fans would be energized by such an aggressive acquisition, and recognize that the front office is fully committed to winning it all this season. The Tigers and White Sox would recognize it as well, and would have to take a hard look at themselves in late July to decide whether it is worth the cost in terms of dollars and organizational depth to try to keep up.

The Twins team we're watching now might be in for a fight to win the division, and doesn't appear to have what it takes to go deep into October. Bill Smith shouldn't be afraid to spend some of the Twins' considerable capital in order to change that equation.

6th Split: 7-9

Overall Record: 48-49
3rd in AL Central, 4 games back

Other splits: 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, 8-8, 9-8

As you can see, the Twins have played all 6 of their splits up to this point of the season within one win of .500. (Any guesses which extra win they should have had this time? Maybe the one they were leading by 10 runs vs. the 2nd worst offensive team in the league?) As a result, their overall record is within one win of .500. This should come as a surprise to no one. For anyone to doubt after 97 games that the 2009 Twins are essentially a .500 team is wishful thinking. If nothing changes, I would expect them to be right around that number at the end of the season.

They are basically in the middle of the pack in the league in terms of R, OPS, ERA and R allowed. They remain one of the top fielding teams despite committing their highest number of errors this split (9, giving them 40 overall on the season). It's illustrative of just how deep the holes are on the roster that the extraordinary performances of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan, together with the strong performances so far by Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, Nick Blackburn and Matt Guerrier, have only been enough to bring the team back to about even. This team simply isn't a winner, and without significant changes, I don't expect that to change over the last 40% of the season.

If that's apparent to me, it's undoubtedly also the case with the players. My travel and work schedule hasn't permitted me to keep up with entries this month, but what I said last time is still true: this team needs a shot in the arm, a mental lift, a sign from the front office that the cavalry is coming. Mark Grudzelanek, if he has anything left at 39, could well be an upgrade at 2B, but he's still probably at least a couple of weeks away. Replacing one of the AAAA long relievers with Jesse Crain should ultimately improve the bullpen, but it's not enough. Since this will perhaps be my last chance before the deadline, here's a quick summary of my thoughts on the Twins' trade possibilities:

At the All-Star Break, Blackburn was among the leaders in the AL in IP and ERA. He was pitching great, but is actually only a good pitcher. If his numbers by the end of the season slip back to where we might expect from a good but not great pitcher (ERA somewhere around 4.00 in 210 IP), his ERA will be 4.85 for the rest of the season. Anthony Swarzak should be able to match or exceed that, so Blackburn, at the height of his value, would have made a terrific centerpiece for a trade. However, with Glen Perkins having shoulder trouble and Kevin Slowey suffering a setback in his recovery, the Twins are probably loathe to deal a MLB SP right now.

However, there are other positions of depth within the organization. With Grudzelanek in the system, the Twins now have 2B covered for the rest of the year, with Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla available to get spot starts or take bench spots. Steven Tolleson has performed well enough at Rochester to push Luke Hughes down the depth chart to AA. Hughes is a lousy IF, but has a pretty good bat and has also played some corner OF. Danny Valencia looks for all the world like he's ready to assume the 3B spot next season. David Winfree has taken a step forward this year, particularly in terms of plate discipline, with the vast majority of his walks coming in the last 2 months. Rene Tosoni is another OF having a breakout year at AA. Ben Revere does about what Denard Span does, and Joe Benson is another fine OF in the low minors. Jeff Manship has reached AAA, showing similar stuff to Swarzak/Blackburn/Mulvey but doing an even better job of keeping the ball in the yard. Juan Morillo still doesn't have great control, but the K/9 and BAA are outstanding.

Given that overview, Twins' biggest need is offense from SS and quality short relief. They should expect Tolleson and Valencia to replace Grudzelanek and Crede in 2010. Therefore, if they add a good SS, Brendan Harris becomes superfluous - he should be a trade piece. Mulvey is in his final option year, and will likely force the Twins into the same position they were with Philip Humber this spring. He's imminently replaceable by Manship. Pick somebody out of Blackburn, Perkins, and Mulvey and make them a trade piece. Winfree is on his way to replacing Cuddyer, but could probably do what Delmon Young is doing right now. Throw in Young, if only to clarify the OF situation at the upper levels. And, realistically, with top prospect Aaron Hicks just a year behind Benson and Revere, one of them could probably be traded.

Any of those guys could be probably be dealt for a decent reliever. The Brewers, watching the flurry of recent moves by the Cardinals, and with SS prospect Alcides Escobar ready for the bigs, might be willing to deal JJ Hardy for the right package, particularly if it included Blackburn and Harris. A collection of those guys might be enough to pry Christian Guzman away from the Nationals. I wouldn't worry too much about upper level depth for the rest of the season - if the Twins want to contend in 2009, they're going to have to make a bold move in the next week and hope for the best.

Bold Prediction: Something is going to happen for the Twins before the deadline.