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Twins 3, Rays 4 (10 innings)

Twins 2, Rays 5

Twins 3, Rays 4

Twins 4, Rays 2

Any time a Closer blows a save, it tends to overshadow everything that came before it in the game. Whatever the circumstances leading up to it, all that guy had to do was hold the lead for one inning and his team would have had a win in the books. The significance of the Closer is doubly emphasized when the offense promptly retakes the lead in the top of the 10th, but the other Closer comes in and also blows a save in the bottom half. And it is tripled when the same 2 guys go out there 2 days later and give up late-inning runs, again costing the team a win. And it gets even a little more emphasis from the fact that the SP in those 2 games had completely shut down the opposition, allowing just 1 R on 8 H and 3 BB with 13 K in 15 IP.

It's easy to blame this series loss on Joe Nathan and Matt Capps. After all, if they had done their jobs, the Twins would have walked away from Tropicana Field with 3 wins instead of 3 losses. But I'd like to make sure the offense gets its fair share of the blame. In those losing efforts, the hitters went 3 for 23 (.130) with RISP. Even productive outs in many cases might have resulted in the 1 or 2 extra runs the team needed to put the game away, but they couldn't muster those, either.

It would be nice to pin that futility on the lack of depth at the up-the-middle positions - Luke Hughes and Steve Holm had chances to sustain a couple of rallies on Saturday and didn't. But just about everybody in the lineup has been guilty of that at one time or another. When Casilla and Span set the table, Morneau doesn't hit, and the rallies fizzle. When he and Thome do hit, Delmon and Cuddyer don't, and the rallies fizzle. When they hit, Casilla doesn't, and the rallies fizzle. Nobody's getting the timely hits right now.

With neither the defense nor the bullpen looking terribly sharp in the early-going either, at least the starting pitching has been strong. In this series, all 4 starters were still on the mound in the 7th inning. Nick Blackburn's QS through 6 IP was quickly forgotten when he served up a no-out, 2-run HR in the 7th, but he'd pitched 5 stellar shutout innings prior to seeing the wheels start to come off in the 6th. The starters have definitely stepped up and done their part to help carry the offense through this slump. With them pitching so well, the hitters don't have to do too much more to get this thing turned around.

Next stop: Baltimore, where the Orioles have lost 7 in a row. It's still the road, it's the AL East. But it's also a good opportunity to come home with a couple more wins.

Notes:

• Joe Mauer's vague but persistent soreness sent him to the DL after Thursday night's game with what was initially diagnosed as bilateral leg weakness. By the end of the weekend it appeared that the cause was a viral infection which caused him to lose about 12 pounds in a matter of days. He seems to be on the mend already, and should be more or less back to full strength by the time his DL stint is up at the end of the month.
• Nathan has been demoted to low-leverage situations until he can get himself back to form. I don't know how many strong outings he'll need to have to reclaim the Closer job from Capps, but I do expect him to improve as the season goes along.
• Denard Span and Jason Kubel were 2 of the guys from whom I expected bounce-back seasons in 2011, and they're each off to great starts. Span is hitting .339/.371/.458, while Kubel's 2nd straight game with a HR lifted his line to .321/.368/.509. They are the only guys currently in the lineup who are enjoying BABIPs above the league average. Those will come down eventually, so they'd each better start working counts and drawing walks the way they've shown us they can in recent seasons if they want to keep up their OBPs.
• Joe Benson kept hitting this weekend, adding a 3B and raising his line to .385/.442/.615, with a K% that is presently just under 18%. So far, so good there.
• There are 2 other prospects who I'd especially like to see work their way into the Twins' 2012 plans. Chris Parmelee could make himself into a viable lefty platoon option in the OF, perhaps replacing Jason Kubel. But, like Benson, he needs to hit well enough early in order to earn a quick promotion to Rochester. He hit his 1st HR of the season today and is off to a .357/.372/.548 start. Needs to walk more, though.
• The other is Rene Tosoni, who is trying to bounce back from an injury-shortened 2010. He would make a nice upgrade to Jason Repko, since he can do all the things Repko does, plus hit. He's already got a 9-game hitting streak which has him at .324/.381/.676 with 4 2B and 3 HR.

Contract Week

A quiet offseason has suddenly become busy with Twins news. Part of that was prompted by Tuesday's arbitration deadline, without which they might well have continued to progress through the winter at their own leisurely pace. Finally spurred into action, they handed out a flurry of contracts. I was struck by the disparity in efficiency between some of those recent transactions. Here's what I mean:

Arbitration

Twins reached 1-year agreements with Alexi Casilla ($865K), Glen Perkins ($700K) and Matt Capps ($7.15M), avoiding arbitration. Jason Repko ($600K) and Pat Neshek ($625K) agreed to 1-year deals in December.

Casilla will presumably be the everyday SS and #9 hitter. I'll go into it more in a later post, but I think it's reasonable to expect him to provide league average production at that position. That's pretty good return for a salary that's only about double the minimum wage. Repko is useful only as a late-inning sub for someone who's already gotten on base; his salary is appropriate for his limited skills. Neshek was one of the top setup men in baseball before his injury. If he can regain his command and a little velocity, as Francisco Liriano was able to do, he could be a huge asset for the bullpen. If he can't, the Twins haven't wagered too much.

Those three guys aren't sure things to be productive, but Repko serves an important function on the bench, and the other two have pretty decent upside potential. For just over $2M, the Twins could get some nice value out of that trio.

But just about every year, they offer arbitration to someone I would have non-tendered. This year, it's Perkins. There is nothing I've seen in his last two seasons to suggest that he has any chance of contributing to this year's team. He's more hittable than Nick Blackburn, and doesn't even pitch as deeply into games as Kevin Slowey, so he's not going to beat anybody out for a rotation spot. He doesn't miss bats, he doesn't get ground balls, and he's no good at getting lefties out, so what good could he do in the bullpen? On top of that, he's injury-prone, there are questions about his make-up, and Gardy doesn't seem to like him very much. So why even offer him a contract? $700K isn't a ton of money to spend on a player, but it's a lot to spend on toilet paper.

As for Capps, I accepted a long time ago that he was going to get a contract and make about $7M through arbitration. Those facts have been incorporated into my expectations of the Twins' offseason all along. But after seeing reliever after reliever agree to 2 and 3-year deals with average annual values of $3.5-$5.5M, it was still a bit of a shock to look at the actual number today. My first thought was, "Wow, that's really steep." Then I went back to the projected payroll spreadsheet and reminded myself that it wasn't shocking - it's what everyone assumed would happen all along.

Most relievers have been overpriced this winter, especially when you factor in the additional years. Capps will cost the Twins less in guaranteed money than every departed member of their bullpen, with the exception of Jon Rauch, who had to settle for a 1-year deal. In that respect, the Twins came out ahead. And they have their 2nd closer, a guy who can step in if Joe Nathan struggles in his comeback from TJS.

But it's disheartening to see that, for about the same amount of money they're paying Capps and Perkins, they could have brought back Brian Fuentes - who also would have served as Nathan insurance - plus somebody else who has a better shot of producing than Perkins. Like Takashi Saito, or maybe Chad Qualls. It seems like a waste to see only one spot in an uncertain bullpen filled with the money that might have covered two.

Exchanged figures (Team/Player) with Kevin Slowey ($2.3M/$3.1M), Francisco Liriano ($3.6M/$5M) and Delmon Young ($4.65/$6.25).

With Slowey, the Twins should just go ahead and split the difference at $2.7M. After a couple of shaky seasons in a row, including a very frustrating 2010, I don't know why Slowey wouldn't accept that.

Liriano and Young should get multi-year deals with the Twins' submitted numbers as the 2011 salaries. For Liriano, Zach Greinke and Josh Johnson are the appropriate comps, each of whom signed 4-year deals following the first good season they produced after their respective troubles. Liriano's crappy luck last year is good luck for the Twins, since his 2010 doesn't look quite as nice statistically as Johnson's 2009 or Greinke's 2008. They might be able to get him for a little less than the $38-$39M those guys got, maybe more like $36-$37M. They each made $3.75M in the first year. Maybe Liriano's contract goes:

2011: $3.6M

2012: $7.4M

2013: $13M

2014: $13M

That would be the $37M version.

As for Young, I think Michael Cuddyer is a good comp. In the winter of 2008, Cuddyer filed at $6.2M and the Twins at $4.7M - just about exactly the split between Young and the Twins now. Cuddy wound up with a 3-year, $24M contract with an option for 2011. I don't know if I'd mess with the $2.75M signing bonus in Young's case, instead dividing it over the later years of the deal:

2011: $4.75M

2012: $7.75M

2013: $10.5M

2014: $12.5M or $1M buyout

Just make sure that, in Young's case, they don't have to exercise the option a year early.

Of course, the Twins could just wait and see whether Lirano's and Young's breakout 2010s were just flukes. But my guess is that the next few years with them won't come at as low a price in the future. I'll bet at least one of them has a new contract announced before Twinsfest.

Free Agents

Twins agreed to terms with Jim Thome on a 1-year, $3M contract and Carl Pavano on a 2-year, $16.5M contract.

While I have my reservations about bringing Jim Thome back, I have to give the Twins credit for getting him for so little guaranteed money, especially after the monster season he just had. If he totally flames out this year, the Twins won't have lost much.

The Pavano contract is amazing. As soon as Ted Lilly re-upped with the Dodgers for 3-years, $33M, I thought Pavano was gone for sure. Why shouldn't he get the same deal? Well, it was probably partly the recent, notorious injury history. That, coupled with Type A status that would have cost the signing team a draft pick, seems to have deflated Pavano's market. So the Twins were not only able to bring him back, but at a price tag just a little bit over what they paid him last season. That's the same thing Jake Westbrook is getting paid. What a bargain!

This move might free up one of the other starters for a possible trade. Other than Duensing, though, I feel like their stock is pretty low right now. It would be best to wait until at least the end of spring training, when Slowey and Blackburn can establish that they're healthy and able to get people out.

Or if they hold onto everybody, signing Pavano likely means that Duensing would get kicked back to the bullpen, where he's been very effective over the last two seasons. That would reduce the number of question marks in the 'pen by one. There are probably enough guys coming to spring training to adequately fill the remaining relief spots internally.

With Pavano coming back to the Twins, they lost their opportunity to get some draft pick compensation for him. (It's a stipulation of his new contract that the Twins won't offer him arbitration after 2012.) They'll end up with something like 3 of the top 50-60 picks this June. Which is nice, but it could have been so much more.

The Rays were in basically the same boat as the Twins, with the bulk of their bullpen heading into free agency. But they boldly offered arbitration to everybody, even though having several of those players accept it would have been much more difficult for them to absorb financially. All of their FAs turned it down, and the Rays have been rewarded with 11 picks out of the first 80 or so. If the Twins had done the same, they might have picked up 4 extra picks for losing Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes. I'm not sure Guerrier, as a Type A, would have turned down arbitration. But then again, Type A Grant Balfour did, and he landed on his feet. Rauch and Fuentes almost certainly would have tested the market. The Twins didn't really lose anything by being cautious, but they might have gained something had they had the same resolution the Rays did.

A few bargains, a few missed opportunities, and a few head-scratchers. It doesn't seem like many avid fans are too excited with the offseason so far. But I have no doubt that the Twins are following the plan they set for themselves at their organizational meetings. We may not be completely satisfied with the deals they've made, but I have a feeling they are.

Capps and Trade

On Thursday night, the Twins traded AAA C Wilson Ramos and A+ LHP Joe Testa to the Washington Nationals for CL Matt Capps and $500,000. First, the bad news:

• This isn't much of an upgrade at the Closer position. As Geek and Gleeman pointed out, Jon Rauch and Capps have performed pretty similarly over the last few seasons. Each has blown 4 saves this season, though Capps has had 5 more opportunities. We'll never know how Rauch would have done as the closer for the remainder of 2010, but I doubt it would have been particularly worse than what Capps will do.
• The Twins bought high on Capps. He's got an ERA about 3/4 of a run below his career average, and was named to the All Star team for the first time. His ERA, BB/9 and HR/9 all spiked in 2009, after which he was eventually non-tendered by the Pirates. Had the Twins been interested in him over the winter, they probably could have traded him straight up for Testa. Now, his stock may never be higher.
• The Twins sold low on Ramos. There was a ton of buzz around Ramos thanks to his strong performances in the Venezuelan Winter League, Spring Training, and his first couple of games with the Twins. However, his first half in Rochester was pretty dismal: he hit just .210/.252/.310 with 4 HR and about a 4/1 K/BB ratio before the break. But he's been hot since, hitting .388/.412/.510 in about 50 PA. Certainly not sustainable over the long run, but maybe an indication that he was finally getting comfortable at AAA and on his way to posting overall numbers that might approach league average for the season. That, from a 22-year-old with limited experience above A+ ball, might have been enough for the scouts to dream on. Waiting even just another month might have brought the Twins a significantly better return for Ramos.

Now, the good news:

• Adding Capps makes the 2010 Twins better. Putting him in the closer role creates a trickle-down effect throughout the rest of the bullpen. Rauch threw at least 70 innings in each season from 2006-2009, but this year is on pace for about 60 IP. He's appeared in just 9 games in July, totaling 8.1 IP. Moving him from the closer role will probably lead to longer and more frequent appearances for Rauch, which will be a good thing. Nick Blackburn was optioned to Rochester to make room for Capps, meaning that mop-up innings he might have been getting will probably go to Anthony Slama, and the middle innings of close games (like last Friday in Baltimore) will go to one of the more accomplished members of the 'pen, like Matt Guerrier or Jesse Crain. This move should also mean less strain on Guerrier, making him likely to maintain his performance deeper into the season. The Twins are likely to get a couple of short starts a week from here on out, and adding a good reliever like Capps means that the bullpen is comprised of 7 pretty solid guys - there are no glaring weak spots anymore. Furthermore, Blackburn will get an opportunity to work through his troubles as a starter, and will remain stretched out in the event that the Twins need an emergency start somewhere down the road.
• This gives the Twins some depth for 2011. Capps will be under team control next year. He will get a raise in arbitration, but will still be making less than market value for a closer. Rauch, Guerrier and Crain are all eligible for free agency next year, and I would be surprised if the Twins were able to retain more than one of them. We hope that Joe Nathan will be recovered from Tommy John surgery and ready to resume the closer role at the beginning of next season. If he's not, the Twins can turn to Capps, filling the other bullpen slots with serfs like Slama, Alex Burnett, Kyle Waldrop and Rob Delaney, all of whom are proving themselves to varying degrees at the upper levels. Pat Neshek will be available as well. Should Nathan bounce back like Billy Wagner, the Twins might be able to trade Capps in the spring for a return similar to what they've given up here. Speaking of which,
• The Twins didn't give up anything they were going to need in the future. If the plan is to have Joe Mauer catching more than 75% of the Twins' games for the foreseeable future, Ramos is just a backup. Should the Twins be dissatisfied with Jose Morales and/or Drew Butera, they can find a veteran to fill that role easily enough. Right-handed hitting catchers aren't that difficult to come by during the offseason. The Rockies and Blue Jays each picked up productive players for a bargain, just as the Twins did when they signed Mike Redmond years ago. Testa struggled at AA and was rather old for A+. He was projecting as a LOOGY at best, another commodity that is readily available in the free agent market. There's nothing wrong with turning something you can't use into something you can.

I don't love this deal. Selling low and buying high is a bad way to invest in the stock market, and those principles generally apply to baseball as well. I wish the Twins had gotten more for Ramos; I wish they'd paid less for Capps. However, adding Capps makes the Twins more likely to win, not because he's an awesome closer, but because he compliments the other pieces of the bullpen. It means Gardy can have a quicker hook if Scott Baker or Kevin Slowey are struggling. It makes it more likely that the 'pen will be able to keep the score close until the offense can do some damage. So, ultimately, I'm OK with it.