4th Split: 9-7

Overall Record: 25-39

5th in AL Central by 10 games

Other splits: 6-10, 6-10, 4-12

Things finally started going right for the Twins in this split. They outscored their opponents 76-57, and finished it on an 8-2 run. And yet, I can't help but be disappointed. According to their Pythagorean Record, that run differential should have resulted in 10 wins. Which loss should have been a win instead? Take your pick; 5 of these 7 recent losses were by 1 run. For me, it's the 1-0 loss to Cleveland. It's not just that it would have brought them a game closer to the top of the standings. It was the Indians' only win in their last 9 games. And it came against what was probably the weakest lineup Gardy has thrown out there all season, with only 3 regular MLB players penciled in (or 4, depending on how you feel about Alexi Casilla these days). Every win is crucial when trying to dig out of a hole this deep.

4.8 RPG is right around where I expected the offense to be this season. They scored 5 or more runs - a figure that was hopelessly unreachable in the early part of the season - 11 times. This was especially remarkable given the fact that injuries took away Denard Span, Jason Kubel and Jim Thome - the 3 best hitters on the team this year - for most of the last week and a half. And the offense rolled anyway. It just goes to show that anybody good enough to play at the Major League level can get hot for awhile. Even AAA scrubs like Rene Rivera and Matt Tolbert.

The Twins went just 7-4 in those games where they score 5+ runs, though, because the bullpen had a few more horror shows left in them at the end of May. 5 runs allowed in the 8th inning on the 27th, in addition to late inning runs allowed on the 29th, 30th and 31st. All of those losses were by just 1 run. Since then, the starters and the bullpen have buckled down, and still managed to get through the split with a very nice 3.04 ERA. They served up just 11 HR in the 16 games and have their BBs back under control at 2.2/9. The starters (other than Brian Duensing) have been working deep into the games, allowing Gardy to leave the shakiest members of the 'pen on the bench when crunch time comes.

The fielding continues to be a liability, unfortunately. 11 more E resulted in another 9 UER, raising their season totals to 44 E and 33 UER. Those rank them 12th and 13th in the AL, respectively. Some of those UER were the difference in 1-run losses, such as the kick in the corner from Delmon Young in the 1-0 loss at Cleveland I cited above. I can only hope that the defensive aspect of the game will tighten up soon as the hitting and pitching have.

On paper, things should continue to be favorable for the Twins as they head to the season's midpoint. They have finally lived out their exile, and are now in the midst of playing 31 of 41 games at home. Not that they've done particularly well at home so far this year. Also, by the end of the week, they should begin to see an avalanche of players coming off the DL. Though the replacement players have begun the turnaround, they can't be expected to keep it up for long. Besides, if the Twins keep winning 9 of 16 the rest of the season, they'll just make it to .500 by the end of the year. If they want to do better than that, they're going to have to keep the pedal down.

Bold prediction: Delmon Young catches fire.

3rd Split: 4-12

Overall Record: 16-32

5th in AL Central by 14.5 games

Other splits: 6-10, 6-10

Incredibly, things got worse. The lopsided scores disappeared as the strength of opponent tapered off. But the Twins still managed to have their worst split in years. They scored 4 or more runs 7 times. They went just 3-4 in those games. They allowed 3 or fewer runs 7 times. They went just 3-4 in those games. Basically, when they pitched well, they didn't hit. When they hit well, they didn't pitch. Whatever it took to lose, they did it.

The hitting definitely improved. The Twins averaged nearly 4 RPG and hit 15 HR - double their total to date. Their overall line of .240/.297/.362 is still beneath what you'd expect from a league average SS, but it looks pretty strong compared to what came before. This is largely due to vastly improved numbers from the bottom of the order. Alexi Casilla has caught fire since moving back to 2B, and Rene Rivera, while still hitting poorly even for a backup C, looks like Mike Piazza next to Drew Butera.

The pitching stayed about the same. Which is to say, it was pretty bad. The starters eventually kept the team in the game, but when they did, the bullpen routinely coughed up the lead. The overall team ERA was essentially flat. The K/9 improved a lot, but the BB/9 and HR/9 regressed a bit. Joe Nathan, Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins landed on the DL, forcing more marginal pitchers into high-leverage situations. Phil Dumatrait has done well, but everybody else has been killed.

The defense was dreadful. 13 E committed, though they resulted in just 4 UER. Too many extra outs, too many extra bases. Too much pressure added to a lineup and pitching staff that are struggling as it is. And that doesn't even include some of the plays that weren't made because of indecisiveness or lack of range. Some of it is the scrubs, but just about everybody the Twins run out there is capable of doing better, at least on balls hit into their zone.

Even terrible baseball teams generally win 6 out of every 16 games. It's hard to lose more than that. Everybody has their bad days, but they have their good days, too. The Twins have managed to make just enough mistakes to lose even on their good days. I don't know where the bottom of this pit is, but I still can't believe they won't reach it soon. They've played poorly, but they've also been unlucky. It isn't probable that both of those things will continue at this rate.

Bold prediction: They bottom out.

2nd Split: 6-10

Overall Record: 12-20

4th in AL Central by 9.5 games

Other splits: 6-10

Now 1/5 of the way through the season, the Twins are maintaining their 100 loss pace. There were a couple of promising 3-game winning streaks during this split, but it was framed by consecutive losses that featured shutouts and blowouts. However, the last 16 games are defined for me by what came in the middle: a humiliating 6-game skid. 3 losses at home in which the Twins looked like they neither belonged nor wanted to be on the field. 3 tight, mistake-filled losses in Kansas City, where the Twins hadn't been swept in over a decade. I would have expected at least one win in each series, which would have been enough for the Twins to tread water and remain within striking distance of .500.

Incredibly, the injury situation got worse. Delmon Young missed the entire split with a strained oblique. Jim Thome followed him a few days later. Jason Repko eventually went down with a sore quad. That left Gardy no choice but to fill out nearly every lineup with 3-4 players who didn't make the squad out of spring training. It's tough to win with a AAAA lineup, especially when 11 of the 16 games take place on the road. Only 1 week into May, the Twins have already had to call up 10 players from Rochester.

There was some progress on the hitting front. They doubled their HR output from the 1st split to a whopping 10 long balls. The walk rate improved. Michael Cuddyer and Danny Valencia have been getting better results, joining Denard Span and Jason Kubel as credible regulars. But the backups have done exceedingly poorly, particularly at catcher, where Joe Mauer's absence is felt every single game. It doesn't look as though Alexi Casilla is going to put it together, and Justin Morneau is producing the way we're used to seeing him hit in September (when he's healthy enough to be on the field in September, that is). It all came out in the wash - the offense remained basically flat when compared to the 1st 16 games. Which is to say, it still sucks.

No such ambiguity about the pitching - it definitely got worse. Scott Baker and Brian Duensing have been excellent, and Matt Capps and Glen Perkins continue to do solid work in the 'pen. Joe Nathan is showing signs of finding himself again. But, no-hitter or not, Francisco Liriano's control still looks frighteningly shaky, and Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano are getting tagged all over the field. Dusty Hughes earned a demotion back to Rochester, and Jim Hoey looks headed in that direction. Jose Mijares is the bullpen's answer to Liriano. Altogether, they averaged over 5 earned runs a game in this split.

And they didn't get much help from the defense, which committed another 11 E which resulted in 16 UER. Think about that: 1 extra run per game on average from shoddy defense. Part of it is people trying to do too much, but a lot of it comes from guys who are exposed by playing everyday play. Bench players or minor leaguers who aren't mentally consistent enough to thrive at the highest level. But who else are the Twins going to run out there?

Health is everything now. Young should be ready to return this weekend. Thome and Nishioka shouldn't be too far behind. But Mauer still isn't doing any catching, and there's no timetable yet for his return. I don't see how the Twins can go too far without him. But with 50% of the next split taking place at home, and 13 of the 16 games taking place against opponents with losing records, this is certainly an opportunity for them to start to turn things around, particularly as the uninjured regulars continue to warm up.

Bold prediction: The Twins will be closer to .500 16 games from now.

1st Split: 6-10

5th in AL Central by 6 games

Click here for a reminder of why I do these.

Last fall, I advocated a quiet offseason for the Twins. Their resources were somewhat limited, and there was no way of knowing which of the many players coming back from down seasons and injuries would fail to bounce back in 2011. If it turned out that everyone was healthy and productive, they could spend on luxury upgrades to an already successful team. But if it turned out that one or more positions had broken down, they would be in position to shore up those specific areas. Unfortunately, that strategy, combined with a fairly unimpressive slate of prospects at AAA, would mean that they would begin the season with a disquieting lack of depth, especially at the up-the-middle positions and 1B.

Needless to say, the Twins haven't been healthy or productive so far. It started in spring training, when Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano all joined the program late due to lingering physical troubles from the offseason. Kevin Slowey and Tsuyoshi Nishioka hit the DL after the 1st week of the season. Mauer joined them a week later. Now Morneau is sick. That's forced Cuddyer to start more than half of his games in the IF, where he's even more of a defensive liability. Drew Butera is now the primary catcher, with AAA filler Steve Holm as the backup. AAA filler Eric Hacker has been called up to fill in for Slowey. What began the season as a pretty good starting roster has become inundated with replacement level scrubs.

The hitters who missed half of spring training haven't done a thing at the plate. Mauer (.235/.289/.265), Morneau (.208/.250/.302), Cuddyer (.228/.279/.281) and Young (.228/.286/.281) have yet to put a ball in the seats in over 200 combined PA. The terrible BA are exacerbated by a team-wide fear of drawing walks: the Twins are last in the AL in that category. Add that to their MLB-low 5 HR, and it's not surprising to find them at the bottom of the leader board in OBP, SLG%, IsoP, OPS and RS. We heard a lot in the offseason about how the front office was trying to add some team speed. That has resulted in 7 SB so far, tied for 10th in the league. Nishioka has been hurt and Casilla can't get on base, but Denard Span (.313/.343/.422) has been at 1B plenty, and he has as many steals (1) as Jason Kubel (.316/.361/.491). Those two, incidentally, got their reps in during spring training.

The pitching, despite some rather loud setbacks, has largely been decent. After sleepwalking through the 1st 2 games of the season, they've allowed 53 R over the last 14 games for an ERA comfortably under 4.00. Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing, Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn have all been solid, averaging about 6 IP/GS with good ERAs and (for them) K/9 - especially if you give the first 3 a mulligan on their shaky, season-opening innings. Liriano has struggled, mainly due to terrible command and somewhat reduced velocity (related to a shortened spring training, perhaps?). The bullpen has had a couple of bright spots, but those are overshadowed by the failures of Joe Nathan and Matt Capps, who have blown 3 saves between them. Dusty Hughes and Jeff Manship have been horrible, with Manship earning a demotion to AAA yesterday. Hopefully we've seen the last of him.

The defense hasn't been stellar, but it's been a pleasant surprise in a lot of ways. Nishioka had a very jittery debut in the field, but the rest of the team has made just 7 E. They've resulted in 4 unearned runs so far, though I think Cuddyer should have been charged with an E and UER at the end of Kansas City's big inning vs. Liriano. The surprise has been the play of the corner OF, where Young and Kubel have made a ton of catches at the fringes of their range. Maybe those would have been easier catches with better fielders, but they've made the plays they were capable of so far.

It's been a flat-out lousy start. But, thanks to the fact that several of their opponents have been scuffling offensively as well, the Twins have managed to stay in most of the games so far. In fact, if Nathan and Capps had done their jobs, this could have been a .500 split. That's extraordinary when you think of how all-around awfully the Twins have played. The good news: this is only 1/10th of the season, they're only 1.5 games behind Detroit and 1 behind the White Sox (the true contenders for the division title), and there's nowhere to go but up.

Bold Prediction: The Twins will hit at least 12 HR over the next 16 games.

10th Split: 7-10

Overall Record: 94-68

AL Central Champions by 6 games

Other splits: 11-5, 10-6, 7-9, 9-7, 7-10, 7-9, 13-3, 10-6, 13-3

The Twins maintained their searing 2nd half pace through the first 7 games of this split, going 5-2. Over that week, the White Sox lost another 6 straight games, and the division was clinched with rather shocking quickness at the end of September 21st, about 4 days earlier than I expected. It seems that after the Twins' emphatic sweep of the Sox in their home park (9-3, 9-3, 8-5), Ozzie's boys decided to get busy dying.

As the 1st team in the Majors to clinch, and with 2 full weeks before the start of the playoffs, the Twins had the luxury of resting their ailing regulars. Joe Mauer, Jim Thome and JJ Hardy missed virtually all of the season's final road trip. As for the bench guys and September call-ups who filled in for them, well... there's a reason those guys aren't big league starters. The offense sputtered over the final 10 games, scoring 3 or fewer runs 6 times.

Less understandably, the pitching staff mailed it in as well. Francisco Liriano lost his last 3 starts, surrendering more HR (5) in those games than he had in the previous 5 1/2 months (4). Each of the other members of the rotation delivered at least one clunker. That led to lots of opportunities for Glen Perkins, Jeff Manship and Alex Burnett in middle relief. Again, each of them showed why they spent much of the season in the minors, and why their numbers at Rochester weren't that great. The pitching staff coughed up 5 or more R in 7 of the last 10 games.

The defense continued its 2nd half trend of being ordinary at best. The Twins committed 15 errors, remarkably resulting in just 3 unearned runs. The unearned run season total of 33 was the best in the AL (50 seems to be about average). The final fielding percentage numbers were 2nd only to the Yankees.

Speaking of whom, the Twins are going to get a chance to avenge last year's postseason sweep. I hope to have time to address the series in depth before Wednesday night. Suffice it to say, the circumstances are a lot different this time around: the Twins are 8 wins better than 2009 (through 162 games), the Yankees are 8 wins worse. The Twins are rested. They have their rotation set. They have excellent depth in the bullpen. The batting order will end with Danny Valencia and Hardy instead of Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto. And the first 2 games will be at home.

Time to shine, fellas.

Bold prediction: Twins in 4.

9th Split: 13-3

Overall Record: 87-58

1st in AL Central by 8 games

Other splits: 11-5, 10-6, 7-9, 9-7, 7-10, 7-9, 13-3, 10-6

Wow. To go +10 over a 16 game stretch once in a season is pretty good. To do it twice is really special. That's what the Twins have done in this improbably awesome 2nd-half run. Even in the 3 losses, they were in the game all the way, losing 2-1 to Seattle, 10-9 to Detroit and 2-0 to Cleveland. Other than that, whatever the circumstances, home or away, they found a way to win. They were able to hold their ground during Chicago's blazing hot streak, then pull away once the Sox cooled off.

As I predicted, the offense bounced back to 5+ R/G, thanks to 24 RS over the last 3 games. Jim Thome was the big hitting hero, making huge noise in his limited appearances by blasting 5 majestic HR, including the crucial game-winner in the 12th inning of Saturday's 1-0 affair. He was in the middle of just about every rally, batting .407/.555/1.000. Surprisingly, the only other guys who had a really awesome split were JJ Hardy and Matt Tolbert (only 5 GS, but 3 triples and 8 RBI with 4 BB).

The pitching was just as awesome as the hitting was back in the 7th split. The staff sported an ERA well under 3.00, and allowed just 48 RA over the 16 games. They were led by the rotation, all of the healthy members of which went 3 for 3 in QS. In fact, the only game in which the starter failed to earn a QS for non-injury reasons was Matt Fox' excellent emergency MLB debut vs. the Rangers, and he missed it by one out. The bullpen was fantastic, with the exception of the AAA guys and the execrable Randy Flores, who can't get anybody out, especially lefties.

I wish I could say the defense had shared in the return to excellence. The Twins made 9 more E resulting in 7 unearned runs, raising their season totals to 63 and 30. That puts them behind the Yankees in fielding percentage for the first time this season. Most of the errors have come from the IF, where Michael Cuddyer's best efforts are often insufficient to scoop low throws out of the dirt. But there were plenty of misplays in the OF as well, notably from Delmon Young. If the defense had been playing up to the level of the other phases of the game, the Twins might have gone 15-1 in this split.

But that's overkill, isn't it? The division is soundly in hand, and the Twins have even recovered to within 1.5 games of the best record in the Major Leagues. That potential for home field advantage over the Yankees and Rays should keep them focused all the way to the end, even as they rest many of their key players for a run into October.

Bold prediction: The Twins will clinch the division next weekend in Detroit.

8th Split: 10-6

Overall Record: 74-55

1st in AL Central by 3.5 games

Other splits: 11-5, 10-6, 7-9, 9-7, 7-10, 7-9, 13-3

The Twins backed up their best split of the year with a very good one. More importantly, they took charge of the AL Central race, beating the White Sox 3 out of 5 times head to head, then outplaying them by another 1.5 games over the remainder of the split. They managed to do this despite being outscored by 10 R. This was made possible by a fortuitous distribution of their runs.

This was some of the Twins' weakest offensive production of the season. They averaged just 3.4 R/G. Even so, they were able to bunch some offense together in certain games. They scored 6 or more R six times, and won all of those games, including a couple of crucial 7-6 wins against the Sox. But they were held to 3 or fewer runs 7 times, 5 in the last 9 games. The magic pixie dust that covered the offense a couple of weeks ago has blown away.

It seems to have landed on the pitching staff, however. They allowed just 4.1 R/G. Throw out a couple of lopsided losses to the Sox and Angels, and it drops to 3.2 R/G. The Twins got a couple of outstanding starts from just about everybody in the rotation, including a shutout from Brian Duensing, a combined shutout started by Scott Baker, 7 hitless IP from Kevin Slowey, and another CG (loss) from Carl Pavano. Slowey was lost to the DL, but Nick Blackburn returned to control the Rangers for 7 IP in their home park. Only Glen Perkins stands out as consistently struggling.

The defense struggled mightily at times. That is reflected both in a rather high number of E (12) and unearned R (5), bringing the season totals to 54 and 23. But there are also still fly balls dropping between OF, DPs going unturned, low throws that Michael Cuddyer can't quite dig out of the dirt. After 80% of the season, I'm convinced that the OF defense anchored by Denard Span in CF and Delmon Young in LF is indeed a liability. Justin Morneau's glove is missed at 1B just as much as his bat in the cleanup spot.

With the Sox now in the rearview mirror, the Twins can control their own fate from here on out. Only 10 of their final 33 games are against winning teams. 19 of those games will be played at Target Field, where the Twins have a .645 winning percentage. If things continue the way they have up to this point, the Twins should finish up with 93 wins. Just to match that and force a 163rd game tie-breaker (in MN), the Sox would have to go 23-11 the rest of the way. Possible, but a tall order for any team.

Bold prediction: The Twins will average 5 R/G over this next split, and extend their lead over the Sox to at least 5 games.

7th Split: 13-3

Overall Record: 64-49

1st in AL Central by 1 game

Other splits: 11-5, 10-6, 7-9, 9-7, 7-10, 7-9

My hopes from last time were realized, as the Twins took huge advantage of the soft part of their schedule. This split began with an 8-game winning streak vs. the Orioles, Royals and Mariners. 5 of those wins came on the road, elevating the Twins' record away from Target Field back to .500. There were only 3 home games, and they won all of those. Sprinkled in among the cupcakes were 5 games against contenders, and the Twins won 3 of those.

The offense went absolutely insane in this split. They put up 112 R, good for an even 7/game. That surpasses the first 2 splits, when they were scoring at a robust clip, by about 30 runs. All this with Justin Morneau still on the shelf, and most of it without Orlando Hudson. Alexi Casilla filled in at 2B, hitting as well as Hudson has at any point this year. Delmon Young moved up to the middle of the lineup, and was a potent combo with Joe Mauer for at least the 1st half of this split. Mauer has been searing hot, delivering power as well as BA. Jason Repko, Danny Valencia and even Drew Butera have all been hot at the bottom of the lineup.

I predicted that the Twins would have double-digit QS over this stretch, and they delivered with 11 (if you include Kevin Slowey's 7 shutout innings vs. the Rays - which I do). The pitching allowed only 52 R, even a little better than what they did over the first 1/5 of the season. Scott Baker is still inconsistent, but Slowey is finally pitching deep into games, and Brian Duensing has been quality in each of his starts lasting 6 or more innings so far. Matt Capps added depth to the bullpen, which was steady apart from a couple of loud mishaps from Matt Guerrier and Ron Mahay.

The defense made its share of mistakes. They commtted 8 E, though they led to just 2 unearned R, bringing those totals to 42 and 18 for the season. Denard Span and Young got to a lot of balls in the OF that they couldn't quite catch. Michael Cuddyer has filled in admirably for Morneau at 1B, but I wonder how many balls that get by him would have been speared by Morneau. That goes for short throws from the IF as well.

Since I've been tracking splits over the last decade, the Twins have generally put together winning seasons. And all of those winners included at least one run like this. The White Sox had a decent split of their own, but the Twins still picked up 4 games on them. Now those teams play 5 times in the next 8 games. If the Twins can win at least three, it should leave them in 1st place with 1/4 of the season to go, and the pressure will be squarely on the Sox to make up the ground against a tougher schedule.

Bold prediction: The AL Central will still be nip and tuck at the end of the next split - the Twins' schedule isn't easy, but the Sox' kinda is. So, as well as the Twins might play, I'll bet the Sox can match it.

6th Split: 7-9

Overall Record: 51-46

2nd in AL Central by 3 games

Other splits: 11-5, 10-6, 7-9, 9-7, 7-10

Another fairly disappointing stretch for the Twins. They continued to get inconsistent starting pitching, including 5 more terrible starts (more ER than IP) and a few others that were merely not very good. They only managed to win 4 of 8 games at Target Field, where they had been winning about 2 out of every 3 earlier in the year. Perhaps most disappointingly, they lost 2 series against divisional opponents, including a home series against the last place Indians.

One explanation is the loss of Justin Morneau to a concussion on July 7th. He missed 13 of the 16 games in this split, and obviously would have been a huge asset to have in the middle of the lineup, particularly during any of the 4 1-run losses that occurred after his injury. Still, the offense held up pretty well in his absence, scoring 4.6 R/G - a decent improvement over recent weeks. JJ Hardy is heating up, giving the Twins an extra threat from the bottom of the lineup to help offset the loss in the middle.

The starting pitching was the biggest reason for the poor recent performance. Every starter but Carl Pavano was terrible at least once. Nick Blackburn was bad enough to finally lose his spot in the rotation to Brian Duensing. Alex Burnett went into a nosedive, earning a demotion to Rochester in favor of Anthony Slama. But I'll hang the largest portion of the blame upon Kevin Slowey. Though he didn't factor in any decisions in this split, he had to be removed in the middle of an inning each time out. Baserunners he allowed in those partial innings came in to score, and the Twins wound up losing each of those 3 games by 1 run. If Slowey had been just a little bit better, had he been able to complete those innings harmlessly, the Twins might have had a couple more wins to show for themselves. What a difference one player can make.

At least the defense got back to catching the ball. They committed just 3 errors during this split, their best showing since May, and allowed 0 unearned runs, bringing their season totals in those categories to 34 and 16. Certainly, some of the trouble the pitching staff endured can be attributed to less than stellar defense (the inside-the-park HR in Toronto comes to mind). But so much of the run prevention problem is coming from poorly located pitches getting whacked all over the field, I have a hard time cracking down too much on the defense. And it's been a treat to have Hardy back in the field every day, consistently making tough plays in the hole and up the middle.

I'm hopeful that this split will turn out to be a transition between two larger periods: the Pre-All-Star Break collapse, and the correction to follow. The Twins are 5-3 over their last 8 games, and still have a week and a half against bottom feeders in which to bring their record back up where it belongs. With Blackburn no longer taking the ball every 5th day, the Twins should have enough pitching to keep themselves in the game even without making a splashy trade. But if they fail to produce during this coming stretch, they're really going to lengthen the odds of overtaking the White Sox, something I wouldn't have dreamed could have befallen this team a couple months ago.

Bold prediction: The Twins' starters will accumulate double-digit QS over the next 16 games.

5th Split: 7-10

1st Half Record: 44-37

Tied for 1st in AL Central

Other splits: 11-5; 10-6; 7-9; 9-7

When all is said and done, I hope we'll look back on this split and see it as the low point of the season. As well as the Twins played in all phases of the game back in April, they were pretty weak in the latter half of June. It looked as though they were poised to turn a near-disaster into a spark when they pulled off an elating come-from-behind win against the Phillies at the start of the NL road trip. Instead, they finished this stretch 4-8, dropping them below a 90-win pace for the first time this season.

The offense sputtered a bit in the middle games, scoring just 15 R across 6 losses in 7 games from the 22nd-28th, including 2 shutouts. Denard Span, Orlando Hudson and Joe Mauer were all underwhelming at the top of the lineup, providing fewer opportunities with RISP for Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel than we're accustomed to seeing. The pitchers didn't contribute much of anything during the 9 NL games. Nick Punto, Danny Valencia and Delmon Young did a pretty good job from the bottom of the lineup, though.

The big problem recently has been the rotation. Carl Pavano was awesome. Francisco Liriano was decent, but got himself into trouble with 1st inning wildness in 2 of his starts, digging the Twins a hole they couldn't get out of. Scott Baker had 2 splendid starts, 2-1 wins, and 2 stinkers in which he couldn't keep the ball out of the middle of the plate. Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey each had a couple of nightmare starts in which they couldn't even finish 5 IP. The bullpen generally did a splendid job covering for them - until this afternoon, anyway.

10 errors led to 5 more unearned R in this split, costing the Twins at least one win against the Rays last Thursday. Again, those numbers are about equivalent to the totals the Twins had accrued in their first 3 splits combined (10 E, 4 unearned R). Worse than that, the Twins let numerous innings get out of hand when they failed to convert bunts, choppers and other rather gently hit balls into outs. They were scored as H or FC, but they still represent plays that could have been made, weren't, and therefore placed extra stress on the pitchers to try to control the damage, and on the offense to try to make up for the extra runs.

One important change: the Twins moved Cuddyer to 3B in order to keep both Young and Kubel in the lineup in the NL. That move has carried over back into the AL games, providing a spot for Jim Thome to get regular AB at DH. This has paid immediate dividends, as Thome seems to be the only person who can hit the ball out of Target Field with any regularity. Cuddyer will weaken the IF defense, but Thome's stick should more than make up for it.

One more game with the Rays, then the Twins spend the next 15 playing teams whose 1st half run differentials top out at -6. If they can return to the form they showed in April, there's no reason the next split can't get them back to their high-water mark of 11 games over .500.

Bold prediction: The Twins will enhance their roster with a trade sometime in the next 20 days.

4th Split: 9-7

Overall Record: 37-27

1st in AL Central by 2.5 games

Other splits: 11-5, 10-6, 7-9

The scoring remained sluggish, but the pitching improved enough to cancel out the 3rd split. The Twins allowed a dozen fewer earned runs in recent games, no doubt aided by facing the relatively weak offenses of Seattle, Oakland and KC. The net result of a 16-16 record over the last 32 games (and 18-18 over the last 36) coincides almost perfectly with the loss of JJ Hardy at the end of the 27th game of the season. Orlando Hudson's collision with Denard Span at the end of the final game of the Texas series left the Twins without his services for 14 of the 16 games of this split. One or both of those important offseason acquisitions has been absent for the past 30-some games. For me, that explains the dip in scoring and winning percentage from the first 1/5th of the schedule.

3B was an acknowledged weakness in the Twins' lineup this season, but it was supposed to be the only weakness. Losing Hudson and Hardy has forced Matt Tolbert and Brendan Harris into the lineup alongside Nick Punto, along with rookies Trevor Plouffe and Danny Valencia. Of that group, only Valencia has hit with any consistency, and those hits have all been singles. What's worse, Gardy has persistently played one of those guys in the #2 spot, sticking an easy out between Span and Joe Mauer. Add Span's horrendous west coast trip into the mix (2 for 30 with 1 BB) and it's actually remarkable that the Twins were able to come home from that trip with 3 wins.

One of the biggest reasons they did was the play of Delmon Young. He hit .368/.383/.649 with 4 2B, 4 HR and 19 RBI. That's a crapload of RBI for just 16 games, but that number doesn't even tell the story of how timely his hitting was. Last time, I predicted that the Twins would have at least 5 bases loaded hits in this split. They had exactly 5, and Young had 3 of them. He also delivered the game-winning hit late in 2 of the Twins' 1-run wins over this stretch.

The other major reason the Twins were on the happy side of .500 in this split is Francisco Liriano. All 3 of his GS during this stretch ended as 1-run Twins wins, so had he been any less awesome, the record would not have been as good. I should also mention Jon Rauch, who converted all 5 of his save opportunities while allowing just 1 ER in 6 IP on 7 H, 0 BB and 6 K.

As for the defense, it was not their finest hour. Through the first 48 games, they had accumulated just 10 E and 4 unearned R. But in the last 16 games, they committed 11 E and 7 unearned R, culminating in the disastrous 3 E, 3 unearned R inning that ultimately cost them a series sweep of the Royals. Most of those E were committed by middle IF who were not Hardy or Hudson.

Hudson could be back as early as Friday. His health will be one of the keys to the rest of the season. With him in the lineup, the Twins should always be able to pencil in at least 6 above average bats. With the pitching going strong, and the defense still excellent overall, that combination should be enough to enable the Twins to pull away from the Tigers over the long haul.

Bold prediction: At least one of Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Jesse Crain, Alex Burnett or Ron Mahay will no longer be on the roster at the midpoint of the season.

3rd Split: 7-9

Overall Record: 28-20

1st in AL Central by 2.5 games

Other splits: 11-5, 10-6

After playing consistently excellent ball in all phases of the game over the first 32 games, things tapered off for the Twins in this split. They were narrowly outscored, 69-68. Those figures represent about a 17% drop-off in scoring and a 22% increase in runs allowed. They had been 5-3 in 1-run games, but lost 4 of 7 in recent weeks.

The pitchers had their share of clunkers. Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano each had starts in which they allowed multiple HR and more R than IP. Jesse Crain, Ron Mahay and Jon Rauch each got clobbered on multiple occasions, and Matt Guerrier finally allowed a HR. On the plus side, Nick Blackburn worked 7 or more innings in each of his starts and Alex Burnett got back to being pretty reliable in long relief. The pitching staff remains 3rd in the AL in ERA.

The offense continued to struggle with the bases loaded (with one notable exception!), but that didn't stop them in the first 2 splits. I attribute most of the decline in runs during this stretch to warning track power: the Twins have failed to put a ball in the seats in 9 of their last 10 games, though they routinely tantalize us with drives that die just short of the wall. They had been averaging about a HR/G, and had they kept that up, the difference in runs scored during this split would have been negligible. Eat your Wheaties, boys! However, they remain 5th in the AL in scoring.

Only the defense maintained the standard that had been set in the first 20% of the season. The Twins committed just 4 errors and allowed only 1 unearned run, remaining the runaway leaders in the league in those categories with 10 and 4, respectively. Even so, the IF without JJ Hardy was noticeably worse, so I'm very happy to have him back at SS every day.

Thanks to the season-opening series in Anaheim, the Twins' historically dreadful late-May west coast trip will consist of just 2 cities and 7 games instead of the typical 3 cities and 10 games. Those 2 cities, Oakland and Seattle, host two of the weaker lineups in the league, so if the offense can return to its early-season form, even allowing for continued futility with the bases loaded (which is unlikely), that trip should go OK. Then, June and interleague play, the time when the Twins have traditionally hit the accelerator during Gardy's tenure as manager. The fundamentals of this team remain very strong, so I'm expecting good things in this next stretch.

Bold prediction: At least 5 hits with the bases loaded, including another grand slam.

2nd Split: 10-6

Overall Record: 21-11

1st in AL Central by 3.5 games

Other split: 11-5

The Twins haven't shown any signs of slowing down through the first 1/5 of the season. They still sit in the top 3 in the AL in several prominent offensive, defensive and pitching categories. Perhaps most importantly, they went through a stretch of 21 games against division rivals and came out of it with a .667 winning percentage. And not because they swept KC but struggled against the Indians. They have a .667 winning percentage against all 4 AL Central rivals. That's a big reason why they've outplayed their nearest competition, the Tigers, by better than 3 games already.

The offense put up 83 R, nearly identical to the 81 R they scored in the first 16 games. This despite playing without Joe Mauer for about half of this split. Justin Morneau and JJ Hardy also missed significant time. The Twins are averaging about a HR per game and a SB every 2 games. They're still getting basically zilch with the bases loaded, though. I'm concerned about the depth of the bench - it's a big step down from the starters to Alexi Casilla and rookie catchers - but the team has been able to pick up injured players without breaking stride so far.

The pitching staff allowed 57 ER, nearly identical to the 56 ER they allowed in the first 16 games. Francisco Liriano finally gave up some runs, but Nick Blackburn returned to form, and Carl Pavano and Scott Baker have also put together a couple of excellent starts in a row. Jon Rauch and Matt Guerrier each blew a save, but the Twins split those 2 extra-inning games. Jesse Crain has gotten better, Alex Burnett has slipped a bit. The net effect is still pretty darned good.

The defense allowed 3 unearned R on 5 errors. That's actually significantly worse than what they delivered in the first split, but in a way that's sort of like pitching a 6-hitter the start after a perfect game. Sure, not as good, but how could it have been? Overall, the Twins are easily the surest-fielding team in the league, and their UZR is looking good, too.

The Twins will get a huge test in this upcoming split: 6 games against the Yankees, and 2 in Boston. It's time to prove that this team can be a threat to the titans of the East.

Bold prediction: The Twins will hit at least one grand slam during the next 2.5 weeks.

First Split: 11-5

1st in AL Central by 2 games

Click here for a reminder of why I do these.

Remember last season, when the Twins didn't have a split more than 2 games above or below .500 until the final stretch in September? Things sure feel different now. A fast start is a big help toward a successful season. Not that the Twins haven't overcome slow starts in the recent past, or run down rivals who had fast starts. But crucial decisions get made based on records and standings in the middle of a season - whether to cash in the chips or deal for that extra piece that will make you even stronger in October. And morale is so important over a marathon season, for the fans as well as the players. Everybody can feel good about the way the Twins are playing right now, and they can remember this feeling and what it means about the potential for this team when they encounter tougher stretches down the road.

At this point, the Twins are in the top 5 in the AL in nearly every phase of the game. R, OBP, OPS, ERA, shutouts, Saves and Save %, BB allowed, WHIP, P/PA, RZR and UZR - it's all working. The defense has made only one error - a throw from LF that struck the would-be winning run just before the runner reached home plate in the 8th inning. All the routine plays have been made. This makes the Twins the runaway league leaders in fielding %, fewest errors and unearned runs allowed (0).

That defense has benefitted a pitching staff which, as usual, has been the stingiest in the league in issuing walks, especially since the first turn through the rotation. Other than a couple of tough innings from Jesse Crain and Jose Mijares, the bullpen has been stellar. Francisco Liriano is showing that he can recapture his dominance from 2006, or at least 80% of it, which should be good enough to make him a legitimate ace. The rest of the rotation has been solid in at least 2 of their starts to this point, generating 9 QS.

That's plenty for an offense averaging just over 5 R/G. The Twins have the 3rd highest OBP in the league despite having only 3 players hitting over .270. That's because they lead the league in BB, with Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Denard Span and Jason Kubel all drawing 10+ free passes so far. The lineup is almost certain to hit for a higher average down the road, so if they can keep drawing walks at this pace, they're going to bring home even more runs.

A bona fide contender, a spectacular new ballpark, gorgeous spring weather - what a great start to the season!

Bold prediction: The team BA will be over .280 after the next 32 games.

10th Split: 13-4

Overall Record: 86-76
Tied for 1st in AL Central

Previous splits: 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, 8-8, 9-8, 7-9, 7-9, 9-7, 9-7

Hmm, which one of these things is not like the others?

For 9/10ths of the season, the Twins were one of the most stubbornly .500 teams I've ever seen, never falling more than 6 games below or rising more than 3 games above the break-even mark. Whether it was holes in the lineup, weak starting pitching, or shaky bullpen work, the Twins' impressive strengths (Mauer, Span, Kubel) were never enough to do more than cancel out their glaring weaknesses.

But over the final 3 weeks of the season, everything came together. Orlando Cabrera scored in all but 1 game from the #2 spot. Delmon Young, Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto all hit over .300, providing consistent offense from the bottom of the order for the first time all year. Michael Cuddyer was having a solid year, but he found another gear, hitting 7 HR with 19 RBI over the last 17 games. Add that to the guys I already mentioned, and suddenly the Twins were putting up over 6 runs/game, failing to score at least 5 in only 5 of 17 games.

The starting pitching was good enough for that much run support. They were led, as they were in the first half, by Nick Blackburn, who pitched into the 7th inning in each of his last 4 starts, with a 1.65 ERA and 18/1 K/BB ratio. The bullpen was not so cozy, as big leads frequently turned into save situations, but most of the trouble came from middle relief allowing inherited runners to score. Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Ron Mahay, Matt Guerrier and Joe Nathan combined to allow 5 ER of their own over this split, and Jose Mijares had only allowed 1 before his final appearance on Saturday. So let's bring those guys in with the bases empty!

The Twins' defense committed 10 errors over this split - 4 in the ugly finale at Comerica last week. OC seems to let something get away from him almost every day at SS, and Brendan Harris had a terrible time with his limited opportunities at 3B. I'm impressed that Cuddyer has played so well at 1B, where he made several errors earlier in the year on Justin Morneau's off days. Overall, if the Twins can play an errorless game today, they'll finish tied with Toronto for the fewest E in the AL, and will have allowed just 39 unearned runs, a far cry from the 70 they yielded in 2008.

The Twins have lost just 4 times over their last 20 ball games, but 3 of those came at the hands of the Tigers. However, the Twins were 7-2 vs. the Tigers at the Dome this year, and have won 9 out 10 at home overall. The Twins have surged to the finish, the Tigers have sputtered. If Scott Baker can keep the Tigers in the yard, things should go well.

Bold Prediction: Today's game will not be the last the Twins play at the Metrodome.

9th Split: 9-7

Overall Record: 73-72
2nd in AL Central by 4.5 games

Previous splits: 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, 8-8, 9-8, 7-9, 7-9, 9-7

Well, what do you know? The Twins delivered their 9th straight split within one win of .500, and are, not coincidentally, one win over .500 after 145 games. I've been keeping track of splits for most of this decade, and I've never seen anything close to this level of consistency. There's almost always a really bad stretch or a really good stretch. At this point, I don't know that this team has it in them do be anything but mediocre.

Sure, they were just one out away from one more win against the White Sox before Joe Nathan had the worst collapse of his Twins career. And don't forget that, in the 6th inning of that game, the umpires reversed a (correct) call that had awarded Michael Cuddyer a leaping catch at the wall in RF. So, when you think about it, the Twins pitchers and defenders actually got 27 outs without the White Sox scoring. But, that's just the kind of season they've been having.

The loss of Justin Morneau for the last three weeks of the season would seem to cement the Twins' dismal prospects. But, whether because of the sore back or his normal late-summer doldrums, he was hitting just .174/.275/.322 since August 1st. That wasn't quite as bad as what Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert were doing out of the #2 slot earlier in the season, but it's brutal non-production from a cleanup hitter, particularly when Denard Span and Joe Mauer are constantly on base. Losing Morneau means that Jason Kubel and Cuddyer can move up into those RBI spots, and they've already been cashing them in. Meanwhile, Morneau's AB will be made up down in the order by one of the extra OF, who shouldn't have any trouble at least matching what Justin was able to do in recent weeks. The payoff has been immediate, as the Twins have scored 5 or more runs in each game since Morneau went on the shelf.

Pitching was very good in this split - the Twins averaged just 3.5 runs allowed per game. The defense was strong as well, committing just 8 errors (4 in one horrible game in Cleveland) for 66 overall, the lowest total in the AL. They allowed only 2 unearned runs (also in that awful Cleveland game), raising their season total to 33, still second-lowest in the AL. The rotation seems to have stabilized (except for Jeff Manship, who will be skipped as much as possible from here on in), and the additions of Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay seem to have helped to quiet things in the bullpen.

The Twins have 7 games left with Detroit, 6 with KC, and 3 with Chicago. None of those teams has a positive run differential. Conditions are as ideal as they're ever going to get for the Twins to finally have a soundly winning split. Can the Tigers falter enough to give the division away? That will largely depend on how much damage the Twins can do to them head-to-head. If the Twins can win at least 5 of the 7 games, they stand a reasonably good chance of sending the Tigers to something like a 6-11 finish while the Twins go 11-6. They haven't been able to take care of business all season - it's now or never.

Bold prediction: They're going to come up just short.

8th Split: 9-7

Overall Record: 64-65
2nd in AL Central by 4.5 games

Previous splits: 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, 8-8, 9-8, 7-9, 7-9

The Twins continued their .500-ish malaise with yet another moderate split. However, considering that they lost 4 of their first 5, they did pretty well. The big comeback game in Texas on the 18th was the turning point, for this stretch of games at least. They've won 8 of 11 games since then, and the starting pitching has been pretty good the last two times through the rotation (with the exception of the Armando Gabino experiment, of course). Most importantly, the feeling around the team has changed - at least it has for me. When the Twins reached the 9th inning of Tuesday night's game tied with the Orioles, I finally, really believed that the they were going to find a way to win it, something I haven't been able to say for several weeks. And, sure enough, they did.

The offense has continued to be strong, averaging nearly 5 runs/game. Denard Span had a particularly good stretch, reaching base 35 times over the last 16 games and scoring 11 runs. Just as helpful has been the resurgence of Alexi Casilla, who reclaimed the 2nd base job by hitting .375 and scoring 9 runs in the 12 games he played over this stretch. Justin Morneau is in the midst of his typical August slump, but Michael Cuddyer has picked up the slack by hitting .300/.344/.533 in recent games.

Pitching-wise, Scott Baker has re-established himself as the ace of the staff, winning all three of his starts by allowing only 5 ER on 15 H and 3 BB over 21.1 IP for a 2.13 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. But the most surprising contributor to the staff's turnaround had to be Brian Duensing, who gave the Twins a 3.00 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 15 IP while collecting his first two Major League wins. Also encouraging is the improved work of Jesse Crain - his 3.52 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 11.7 K/9 will do nicely for the remainder of the season.

The Twins' defense committed 8 errors in this split, few enough to remain 2nd in the league in that stat and fielding percentage. More importantly to me, they allowed only 1 unearned run in the last 16 games, maintaining the #2 spot in that category, just 1 behind Texas. And the defense turned in some spectacular plays during this split - most notably Casilla's ridiculous diving backhand shovel/flip to Orlando Cabrera for an inning-ending force out against the O's.

We've seen some better baseball recently, at last. But the Twins must keep playing at this rate, particularly against their division rivals, from here on out. I don't think the Tigers will be able to finish with more than 86 wins. Even so, that almost certainly means that the Twins must reach double-digit win totals on their last two splits in order to take the division lead away. And that's something they haven't shown themselves to be capable of doing so far this season.

Bold prediction: The bullpen isn't going to be a problem over this next split.

7th Split: 7-9

Overall Record: 55-58
3rd in AL Central, 4 games back

Other splits: 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, 8-8, 9-8, 7-9

The Twins' season of mediocrity continues. It's been 10 games since Orlando Cabrera joined the team at the trade deadline, and Carl Pavano has has arrived to bolster the rotation as well. But neither new face has been enough to shake the Twins out of their doldrums. They are 3-7 so far in August, and failed to gain any ground in the division despite the continued strugges of their rivals.

The culprit for the Twins' troubles this split isn't hard to identify. They averaged 5.8 R of offense over their past 16 games. That's pretty robust run support for a team with a losing record. Lest you think that they did all of their scoring in their wins, the Twins actually averaged 4.8 R/game in their 9 losses. They lost 6 games in which they scored 5 or more runs. When 5 R aren't enough to get you wins, you know you're not pitching.

In fact, the trouble with this last stretch was that the Twins did all of their pitching in their wins. The staff surrendered just 11 R in their 7 wins, but 88 in their 9 losses. Nearly 10 runs a game! Never in the Gardy/Rick Anderson era have I witnessed such an appalling stretch of pitching futility. Had the Twins gotten merely league-average pitching over this split (4.43 ERA), they would have surely won all 3 games in Detroit last weekend and been no worse than tied with the Tigers and White Sox at the top of the standings. League averaging pitching now sounds like a sweet dream.

That's because the offense is 4th in the AL in scoring and 5th in OPS since the All-Star Break. The defense continues to slide a bit, committing 10 more errors in this split for a season total of 50. But they're still 2nd in the league with just 30 unearned runs allowed, so it hasn't hurt them too badly. If the Twins are going to stay in the race, they'll need to sustain the production they've gotten out of their big hitters while reverting to the sort of pitching and defense they produced in the first half. That's not so much to ask, is it?

Bold Prediction: The Twins' staff ERA for the next split will be under 5.00.

6th Split: 7-9

Overall Record: 48-49
3rd in AL Central, 4 games back

Other splits: 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, 8-8, 9-8

As you can see, the Twins have played all 6 of their splits up to this point of the season within one win of .500. (Any guesses which extra win they should have had this time? Maybe the one they were leading by 10 runs vs. the 2nd worst offensive team in the league?) As a result, their overall record is within one win of .500. This should come as a surprise to no one. For anyone to doubt after 97 games that the 2009 Twins are essentially a .500 team is wishful thinking. If nothing changes, I would expect them to be right around that number at the end of the season.

They are basically in the middle of the pack in the league in terms of R, OPS, ERA and R allowed. They remain one of the top fielding teams despite committing their highest number of errors this split (9, giving them 40 overall on the season). It's illustrative of just how deep the holes are on the roster that the extraordinary performances of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan, together with the strong performances so far by Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, Nick Blackburn and Matt Guerrier, have only been enough to bring the team back to about even. This team simply isn't a winner, and without significant changes, I don't expect that to change over the last 40% of the season.

If that's apparent to me, it's undoubtedly also the case with the players. My travel and work schedule hasn't permitted me to keep up with entries this month, but what I said last time is still true: this team needs a shot in the arm, a mental lift, a sign from the front office that the cavalry is coming. Mark Grudzelanek, if he has anything left at 39, could well be an upgrade at 2B, but he's still probably at least a couple of weeks away. Replacing one of the AAAA long relievers with Jesse Crain should ultimately improve the bullpen, but it's not enough. Since this will perhaps be my last chance before the deadline, here's a quick summary of my thoughts on the Twins' trade possibilities:

At the All-Star Break, Blackburn was among the leaders in the AL in IP and ERA. He was pitching great, but is actually only a good pitcher. If his numbers by the end of the season slip back to where we might expect from a good but not great pitcher (ERA somewhere around 4.00 in 210 IP), his ERA will be 4.85 for the rest of the season. Anthony Swarzak should be able to match or exceed that, so Blackburn, at the height of his value, would have made a terrific centerpiece for a trade. However, with Glen Perkins having shoulder trouble and Kevin Slowey suffering a setback in his recovery, the Twins are probably loathe to deal a MLB SP right now.

However, there are other positions of depth within the organization. With Grudzelanek in the system, the Twins now have 2B covered for the rest of the year, with Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla available to get spot starts or take bench spots. Steven Tolleson has performed well enough at Rochester to push Luke Hughes down the depth chart to AA. Hughes is a lousy IF, but has a pretty good bat and has also played some corner OF. Danny Valencia looks for all the world like he's ready to assume the 3B spot next season. David Winfree has taken a step forward this year, particularly in terms of plate discipline, with the vast majority of his walks coming in the last 2 months. Rene Tosoni is another OF having a breakout year at AA. Ben Revere does about what Denard Span does, and Joe Benson is another fine OF in the low minors. Jeff Manship has reached AAA, showing similar stuff to Swarzak/Blackburn/Mulvey but doing an even better job of keeping the ball in the yard. Juan Morillo still doesn't have great control, but the K/9 and BAA are outstanding.

Given that overview, Twins' biggest need is offense from SS and quality short relief. They should expect Tolleson and Valencia to replace Grudzelanek and Crede in 2010. Therefore, if they add a good SS, Brendan Harris becomes superfluous - he should be a trade piece. Mulvey is in his final option year, and will likely force the Twins into the same position they were with Philip Humber this spring. He's imminently replaceable by Manship. Pick somebody out of Blackburn, Perkins, and Mulvey and make them a trade piece. Winfree is on his way to replacing Cuddyer, but could probably do what Delmon Young is doing right now. Throw in Young, if only to clarify the OF situation at the upper levels. And, realistically, with top prospect Aaron Hicks just a year behind Benson and Revere, one of them could probably be traded.

Any of those guys could be probably be dealt for a decent reliever. The Brewers, watching the flurry of recent moves by the Cardinals, and with SS prospect Alcides Escobar ready for the bigs, might be willing to deal JJ Hardy for the right package, particularly if it included Blackburn and Harris. A collection of those guys might be enough to pry Christian Guzman away from the Nationals. I wouldn't worry too much about upper level depth for the rest of the season - if the Twins want to contend in 2009, they're going to have to make a bold move in the next week and hope for the best.

Bold Prediction: Something is going to happen for the Twins before the deadline.

5th Split: 9-8

First Half Record: 41-40
3rd in AL Central 4 games back

Other splits: 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, 8-8

One of the reasons I started keeping track of splits years ago was that, at 16-17 games, they're long enough to give you perspective, but still short enough that one game can make a big difference. When a team comes into the final game of a split at 8-7, that last game is the difference between being on pace for 91 wins and a playoff spot, or 81 wins and mediocrity.

The Twins, sadly, have been firmly in the latter category this first half. Wednesday was the first time in 8 tries that they won a game after starting the day one game over .500. Having finally reached the 2 games over plateau, they lost Friday night's marathon in 16 innings. Had they won, I'd be writing about a satisfactory split of 10-7. Because Kevin Slowey's wrist acted up and RA Dickey allowed more damage in 3 innings (4 ER on 9 H) than he did in all of June (2 ER on 8 H in 13.2 IP), the Twins finish the first half essentially on pace to be a .500 team, surely not good enough to win even the middling AL Central.

The team generally did a terrific job of preventing runs, allowing fewer than 4 runs per game thanks to strong starting pitching and a defense that committed just 8 errors and 17 games and has risen to 5th in baseball in defensive efficiency. However, 2 of those errors occurred on the same critical play with 2 out in the 8th innings of a 1-run game, costing the Twins a victory. How many times have we seen a Twins pitcher cruise into the late innings of a game, only to allow a succession of hits that undermine with shocking quickness the gem we thought we were watching develop?

This team should have at least a couple more wins than it does, based on its overall quality of play, and the 2nd half schedule won't be as tough as what's come up to now. But I can't help getting the sort of downer vibe I had by the middle of 2005 and 2007, when the Twins kept finding ways to lose close, well-played games. At just 4 games out of first, trailing the at least equally flawed Tigers and White Sox, it's hardly time to write this season off. In fact, if the Twins can come back and win this series with Detroit, they will have won 6 out of 7 series for a record of 13-8 in their last 21. That's going to get it done over the long haul.

Bold Prediction: The Twins will still be over .500 at the end of the next split.