Microcosm

Twins 4, Tigers 8
Twins 2, Tigers 3
Twins 1, Tigers 2

It's the Tigers' year. There have been hints of that throughout the season, most notably that their actual record has far outpaced their Pythagorean Record for most of the summer. Their key players have been healthy and productive. Their opportunistic offense has frequently been able to bail out their largely unimpressive pitching staff. They have won 9 straight. Everything is going their way.

It's not the Twins' year. Their key players have all been injured, and most have been unproductive when in the lineup. Their anemic offense has been unable to step up and provide enough runs for the pitchers to win on the rare days when the hurlers haven't also stunk. They have lost 17 of 21 and 31 of 40. Nothing is going their way.

With that as the backdrop, was there really any doubt that the Tigers would find a way to prevail in the tight games on Saturday and Sunday? Did it matter that Glen Perkins, the Twins' best reliever this season, was facing Brandon Inge, the Tigers' worst hitter? That Perkins had allowed 1 HR all year going into their matchup, and that Inge had hit just 2? When the 1st 2 batters reached against Jose Valverde in the 9th inning on Sunday, was there really any hope that they would both score and cost him his 1st BS of 2011?

Of course not.

Notes:

• Did you notice the way Perkins took responsibility for serving up the dinger to Inge and blamed it on Drew Butera at the same time? To paraphrase: "It's my fault for agreeing to throw the stupid pitch that Drew called." Was he being cunning or tactless? I can't decide. But I do know that with every passing week I grow more secure in my conviction that Butera doesn't actually call a good game.



• The Rays just DFA'd Rob Delaney. Maybe the Twins should scoop him back up. He's been pathetic in 6 total IP for the Rays and Twins so far, but what do you really learn about a guy in 6 jittery innings? In 195.1 IP at AAA he's got a 1.18 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 and just 2.5 BB/9. It's worth a look. What have they got to lose?



• The Twins are now just 1/2 game ahead of the Orioles in the MLB standings. Oh, so close to the #2 overall draft pick! Keep it up, fellas!



• The Rockies trail Cleveland by 4 games and Toronto by 4.5 games. If they can pass them both, there's a good chance that they'll move into the top half of the MLB standings, where their aspirations to sign Michael Cuddyer could really do the Twins some good. Go Rox!

Making Lemonade

There are just under 4 weeks to go until the end of the 2011 season, when the Twins and their fans can finally be put out of their misery. Though the division was lost early last month, there are still some things to hope for in September:

Just Lose, Baby

If the season ended today, the Twins would have the 4th overall pick in next summer's draft. They haven't even had a top 10 pick since they got Joe Mauer with the 1st overall pick in 2001. There's a chance that hard slotting will be a feature of the new CBA to be negotiated this offseason. If that's the case, the Twins could get a consensus stud with their top pick and sign him for a set, reasonable bonus, even if he were represented by Scott Boras. Recent #4 picks who have made good include Brian Matusz, Jeff Niemann, Gavin Floyd and Ryan Zimmerman.

A top 5 pick would also ensure a high 2nd round selection. There are typically between 15-30 supplemental round picks, meaning that the Twins' 4th pick in the 2nd round would still be a pick in the 50s overall. For comparison, thanks to an unusually high number of ranked free agents switching teams, their 2 supplemental round picks this year were #50 and #55 overall - technically 1st rounders.

But why settle for #4? Houston has a commanding lead for the 1st overall pick next year. But right now, the Twins are only 2.5 games behind Baltimore for the #2 pick. Recent #2 picks include Dustin Ackley, Pedro Alvarez, Mike Moustakis, BJ Upton, Rickie Weeks and Justin Verlander. The closer you get to the top of the board, the better your odds of picking up a guy who can become a productive major leaguer in short order. To that end...

Call Up Everybody

Gardy's into it, and why not? They've been fielding a lineup full of fringe major leaguers for most of the season anyway. They might as well go whole hog in September. Jim Hoey and Chuck James both got lit up in their earlier stints in the Twins' bullpen, but Alex Burnett is getting lit up now, so what's the difference?

Denard Span, Alexi Casilla, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Francisco Liriano will all try to return before the end of the season. It would be great to see those guys push some of the scrubs out of the lineup and end the year on a positive note. Then again, what's the point? So what if Baker, Blackburn and Liriano each have 2 more decent starts on a pitch count? Or if Span and Casilla each get through 2 weeks of action without headaches or hamstring soreness? What does anybody prove in so little playing time? I'd just as soon have all of them shut down, conclusively heal their injuries and get to work strengthening themselves for next year.

Are Scott Diamond or Anthony Swarzak any good? I doubt it, but let's see what they can do. AA studs Joe Benson, Chris Parmelee and Deolis Guerra (the Reliever) are on the roster but not ready for The Show. Still, let them get their 1st game jitters out of the way in a low-stakes environment. Give them a taste of what they've been working for, so they can keep that image in their minds when they get after it at AAA next spring. They should be the more confident for it when they're called up under what we hope will be more meaningful circumstances during the 2012 season.

Filling the dugout with the few members of the 40-man roster who weren't deemed good enough to merit a call-up at some point during this injury-riddled season should make for a nice September. Gardy will finally have the long bench he's been struggling to keep all year. But the pups won't necessarily be able to produce the way veterans would when they get thrown out there. A 4th sub-.400 month would give the Twins a great chance of moving up in the draft order. Play the kids! However...

Type A Personalities

Impending free agents Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer are both likely to decline arbitration and test the market this offseason. It appears as though both are on the cusp of attaining Type A status. The Twins need to give them every opportunity to do so.

Assuming they want to bring at least one of them back, a Type A ranking would probably put Kubel into the same territory as Carl Pavano last year. Would anybody really want to outbid the open market and give up a 1st-round draft pick for a guy who doesn't hit lefties well, is a minus on the basepaths and in the OF, and has a history of failing to stay healthy? His list of suitors might become quite short, and he might even fall back to the Twins for a relatively modest commitment, as Pavano did. Or, if he is signed by, say, the White Sox, the Twins would pick up another top 20 pick plus a supplemental, giving them 4 of the top 50-60 picks. Fair compensation!

Cuddyer seems to have a deeper market for his services, so I can easily see the Twins being outbid for him. If they have to lose him, I'd rather it be for 2 picks than one. It may be that his status is in doubt because of his mix of time between 1B and RF. If ensuring that he has more OF time is all the Twins need to do to get him firmly into Type A territory, they should make sure he spends all of September away from the IF. Joe Mauer and Luke Hughes can fill in at 1B when Justin Morneau isn't up to it, and Parmelee will be an option there shortly, too.

If anybody's going to play every day from here it out, it should be Kubel and Cuddyer. Though it would perhaps be even better if each sat out 2-3 games against same-sided SP - their rate stats would probably be the better for it. Speaking of Cuddyer...

Rock-tember!

The Colorado Rockies look like they'll be an aggressive suitor for Cuddyer in the offseason. Currently, they rank #19 in the MLB standings, meaning that they'd only have to give up their 2nd round pick in order to sign him. That wouldn't be so great. They're 5 games behind Toronto for the #15 overall spot, and 5.5 behind Cleveland and the Chisox. They've got a bunch of teams to pass up, but they've played much better than their record shows, and their September schedule is fairly soft. Only 8 of their 25 games are against teams with positive run differentials, and of those, only 2 games vs. Brewers are with contenders. They would need to go 17-8 to finish .500, but they certainly have the talent to do it.

I think there's a good chance at least one of Chicago/Cleveland/Toronto finishes the year with a losing record. The Blue Jays' remaining schedule, in particular, looks rough. If the Rox can slip into the upper half of the standings, they're welcome to sign Cuddyer. The Twins would get back the 16th overall pick, plus another supplemental. Losing both Kubel and Cuddyer under those circumstances could net the Twins 3 of the top 20 picks. To put that in perspective, the Twins have only had 4 top 20 picks in the last 10 years, and 3 of those were exactly #20. The odds of them nabbing at least one impact talent out of that draft would be pretty good. Best of luck to Kubel & Cuddyer's offseason suitors down the stretch!

Final Adjustments

Most of the young guys seeing their 1st Major League action this year have struggled desperately - a lot of OBPs below .300. But that's often the case with newcomers to the league. It takes some guys a little while to get accustomed to the next level. Remember that Alexi Casilla hit just .223/.263/.259 through his 1st 210 PAs, and now he's... well... he's not that bad.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka has been deer-in-headlights helpless out there for most of the season. His 1st 210 PAs were even worse than Casilla's: .214/.256/.240. But since then, he's 4 for 12 with a couple of BB and just 1 K. No one should be getting excited about 4 good starts, but if he can loosen up and have a decent September, it might be an indication that he won't be totally hopeless in 2012.

Luke Hughes was hitting .233/.296/.317 through the end of July, but in August he hit .256/.341/.641. His weak glove and high strikeout rate will likely keep him from becoming a regular, but if he can repeat his August numbers in September, it would go a long way toward proving that he can be a credible bench/platoon bat.

Through his 1st 171 MLB PA, Trevor Plouffe was hitting just .187/.228/.348 with very questionable defense. But since rejoining the everyday lineup on August 15th, he's hit .300/.338/.443 in 75 PA with much steadier glove work. If he can back that up with a strong final month, the Twins might feel comfortable penciling him into one of the MI spots next spring.

I don't have any encouraging recent numbers to point to with respect to Ben Revere. But he has spent almost no time at AAA - just 32 games, where he hit his typical .300+ BA - so it shouldn't surprise anyone that he's struggled this year. A good September from him would show that he might be ready to be the .300/.350/.350 hitter with 50 SB speed that could be a solid contributor to the lineup. If not, it might be best for everyone if the Twins plan to give him some time at Rochester next spring, and sign a short-term corner OF to bridge the gap.

Those are the things I'll be watching for in September. After that, when the Twins don't play for 5 months... As tough as this season has been, those days will be less fun for me.

Stars Align

When I'm not blogging (i.e. most of this summer) or taking care of my two small children, I'm producing music and sound for film, theater, whatever. I'm trying to break into the video game business now that I'm up in Seattle. My quest for work in a new city has pretty much squelched my Twins habit since the move. But, this week, my two passions collided.

As I hope you already know, Aaron Gleeman and the Twins Geek have teamed up for a new podcast called, appropriately, Gleeman and the Geek. They put out a call for submissions for theme music and logos. The music I submitted appeared in podcast #3 this week. It's sort of ESPN Radio meets South Park. After the music fades, the hour they spend talking about the Twins is pretty great, too. Check it out!

Turning the Page

My entries have been sparse for the last few weeks, for several reasons. First, it's always an uphill battle to find time to blog around taking care of 2 pre-Preschool children. Then, right about the time I saw reasons for optimism in mid-May, I got busy packing the house to move our family up to Seattle. Since I arrived here I've been overwhelmed with unpacking, networking, finding my local ______, etc. But during all of that upheaval, I kept checking in on the Twins, and was amazed to find that, night after night, they had managed to lose another game.

I had believed that scoring 4 or more runs a game was the key to winning for this team. But from May 20th-June 1st, they went 1-7 in games in which they scored 4+ runs. Those losses, mostly the result of bullpen meltdowns from replacement level pitchers like Dusty Hughes, Jim Hoey and Alex Burnett, took the possibility of a Twins turnaround this year from unlikely to nearly impossible. They were so soul-crushingly shocking, yet happened with such regularity, that I simply became numb. Tough to squeeze in time to write while feeling like that.

However, since the calendar turned to June, the fundamentals of this team (and its division rivals) have clarified themselves in such a way that I can't help but dive back into more active fanhood. I'm referring in part to the recent collapse of the Indians, who had jumped out far in front of the pack thanks to a nearly flawless month of April. Their only wins in the last 11 games have come by 1-0 scores; their offense has ground to a halt. This morning's standings show the following run differentials for the AL Central (Team: Differential, Pythagorean W%, Projected Record):

Tigers: +12, .521, 84-78

Indians: +7, .512, 83-79

White Sox: -7, .488, 79-83

Royals: -34, .446, 72-90

Twins: -64, .386, 63-99

I'm not aware of any reasons why we shouldn't expect those projections to more or less hold for the top 4 teams in the division. Somebody might wind up with more than 85 wins, but I'd be very surprised if more than 1 team does. In order to be that team, the Twins need to go at least 59-38 the rest of the way. That's a 98-99 win pace over a full season. Their total stats so far make that kind of record look pretty far-fetched. But they've only had their full team on the field for about 2 weeks this season, and the way they played for those 2 weeks wasn't representative of their true ability. Things have gone much better since then. Compare the average AL lineup with the Twins regulars:

AL CF: .264/.321/.416; Denard Span: .294/.361/.385

Plus he's 4/5 SB (why isn't he running more?) and playing some of the best D in the league. Please, please, please don't have a serious concussion.

AL SS: .265/.322/.382; Alexi Casilla: .263/.325/.343

Not a slugger, but the OBP is right there.

AL C: .235/.304/.378

I think Mauer can top that from here on out.

AL 1B: .270/.345/.449; Michael Cuddyer: .273/.339/.432

Justin Morneau is headed to the DL, so I'll drop Cuddy in here. He's almost average overall, and he's hit .296/.359/.477 since April 12th, on pace to hit 25-30 HR.

AL LF: .239/.302/.366; Delmon Young: .246/.272/.316

As poorly as he's hit so far this year, it's amazing that he isn't further from the pack. His 1st 4 games after coming off the DL were like the rehab assignment he didn't get; in 25 games since then he's hit .286/.300/.378.

AL RF: .260/.339/.422; Jason Kubel: .310/.355/.465

Gotta get his ankle healed, but he shouldn't be much more than a week away.

AL DH: .263/.343/.412; Jim Thome: .237/.372/.447

Also should be off the DL in a week or so.

AL 3B: .236/.307/.371; Danny Valencia: .218/.282/.329

He continues to suffer from an unsustainably low BABIP (as evidenced by the sick catch the CF made on his drive to end the Twins' big 7th inning on Sunday). If only his liners were falling in at the league average rate he'd be hitting more like .253/.312/.392.

AL 2B: .249/.310/.370; Tsuyoshi Nishioka: ?

Nobody really knows what he can do in this league yet, but .680 OPS doesn't seem like too much to ask.

Even without Morneau, this is a lineup that should continue to score more runs than the average team. And don't forget that 58% of the Twins' remaining schedule will take place at home, and 53% of it will be against their unimpressive division rivals.

But even more important is the turnaround from the pitching staff. They've allowed only 24 ER so far this month for a sterling 2.02 ERA. The starters, with the exception of Brian Duensing, are all making it deep into games, enabling Gardy to keep the ball away from some of the more combustible relievers. Check out these trends:

In 4 starts working with Rene Rivera behind the plate, Francisco Liriano has turned his season around: 26 IP, 14 H, 5 R, 4 ER, HR, 8 BB, 29 K, 1.38 ERA, 0.85 WHIP. That's our Ace.

In 8 starts working with Rivera, Nick Blackburn has had one of the best stretches of his career: 56.1 IP, 55 H, 18 R, 15 ER, 6 HR, 11 BB, 32 K, 2.40 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a low but not alarming 5.1 K/9.

In his last 5 GS, Scott Baker has gone 34 IP, 31 H, 12 R, 11 ER, 3 HR, 6 BB, 30 K, 2.91 ERA, 1.09 WHIP.

In his last 7 GS, Carl Pavano has gone 52.1 IP, 54 H, 16 R, 13 ER, 2 HR, 10 BB, 21 K, 2.24 ERA, 1.22 WHIP.

4 guys consistently giving the team about 7 IP. The K/9 are up. The BB/9 and HR/9 are down. They're having some nice luck on balls in play right now, but this is basically the pitching staff we wanted to see coming into the season. It is one that could give an above average offense an opportunity to win all summer long.

Still, there are pieces of this team that aren't working, and June is the time to start making adjustments. The general return to health will accomplish a lot of that, but here are some other things I'd do:

• Dump Drew Butera. Rivera is also a liability at the plate, and he's got .100 points of OPS on Butera. But that's not even the real reason. I've cited the improvements in Liriano's and Blackburn's performance since they began throwing to Rivera. That effect can be seen across the staff - the team ERA is about 2 R lower with him back there. He just calls a better game than Butera. The Twins would still be wise to look for a backup C who can actually hit, but Rivera is clearly the best option they have on the roster right now.
• Go with 11 pitchers. This seems almost radical in today's game, but it makes a ton of sense for the Twins. With the starters eating so many innings, the time between outings for the less-impressive relievers is starting to get pretty long. And they're not that impressive, so why have them taking up a roster spot? A 6-man bullpen would enable the Twins to send somebody like Burnett back to AAA for more refinement, while keeping an extra bat like Luke Hughes around once Morneau is healthy.
• Send Duensing to the bullpen. He's been exposed as a starter this year, thanks to a radical platoon split that has RH batters posting an .868 OPS against him. He's holding lefties to an excellent .553 OPS against, but he doesn't see as many of them when the opposing manager can stack his starting lineup with righties. Back in the bullpen, where he's enjoyed considerable success in the past, he could be a huge asset, deployed mainly in the situations in which he thrives. Matt Capps, Jose Mijares, Duensing, healthy Glen Perkins and Joe Nathan... throw a ROOGY in there and that's a pretty solid relief corps.
• Call up Kyle Gibson. In 16 career GS at AAA, he's put up this line: 87 IP, 83 H, 33 ER, 8 HR, 22 BB, 83 K, 3.41 ERA, 1.21 WHIP. Maybe the HR/9 are a tiny bit high, but his peripherals are basically right where you'd want them to be. He's getting 7 grounders for every 4 flies, which should keep him from getting into too much trouble as a rookie in the AL. I think he could probably do at least as well as Duensing has, and his platoon splits aren't nearly as severe.
• Call up a RHP with some stuff. Anthony Slama has gotten only a passing glance from the Twins at the Major League level, but he's held the International League to a .208 BAA with improved control numbers this year. Against RH batters, it's a .143 BAA with a 22/6 K/BB ratio in 18.2 IP. He could be the ROOGY. Or, if you prefer, there's former 1st-round pick Carlos Gutierrez. He still walks too many guys, but his K/BB ratio has improved in each month of the season so far, as has the G/F ratio produced by his heavy, heavy sinker. He hasn't allowed a HR all year. Either one of those guys would be a better option than Hoey or Anthony Swarzak.

That should keep things rolling for the next 5 or 6 weeks. At that point, if they've made up enough ground in the standings, the Twins can decide whether they want to make a move for someone outside the organization.

4th Split: 9-7

Overall Record: 25-39

5th in AL Central by 10 games

Other splits: 6-10, 6-10, 4-12

Things finally started going right for the Twins in this split. They outscored their opponents 76-57, and finished it on an 8-2 run. And yet, I can't help but be disappointed. According to their Pythagorean Record, that run differential should have resulted in 10 wins. Which loss should have been a win instead? Take your pick; 5 of these 7 recent losses were by 1 run. For me, it's the 1-0 loss to Cleveland. It's not just that it would have brought them a game closer to the top of the standings. It was the Indians' only win in their last 9 games. And it came against what was probably the weakest lineup Gardy has thrown out there all season, with only 3 regular MLB players penciled in (or 4, depending on how you feel about Alexi Casilla these days). Every win is crucial when trying to dig out of a hole this deep.

4.8 RPG is right around where I expected the offense to be this season. They scored 5 or more runs - a figure that was hopelessly unreachable in the early part of the season - 11 times. This was especially remarkable given the fact that injuries took away Denard Span, Jason Kubel and Jim Thome - the 3 best hitters on the team this year - for most of the last week and a half. And the offense rolled anyway. It just goes to show that anybody good enough to play at the Major League level can get hot for awhile. Even AAA scrubs like Rene Rivera and Matt Tolbert.

The Twins went just 7-4 in those games where they score 5+ runs, though, because the bullpen had a few more horror shows left in them at the end of May. 5 runs allowed in the 8th inning on the 27th, in addition to late inning runs allowed on the 29th, 30th and 31st. All of those losses were by just 1 run. Since then, the starters and the bullpen have buckled down, and still managed to get through the split with a very nice 3.04 ERA. They served up just 11 HR in the 16 games and have their BBs back under control at 2.2/9. The starters (other than Brian Duensing) have been working deep into the games, allowing Gardy to leave the shakiest members of the 'pen on the bench when crunch time comes.

The fielding continues to be a liability, unfortunately. 11 more E resulted in another 9 UER, raising their season totals to 44 E and 33 UER. Those rank them 12th and 13th in the AL, respectively. Some of those UER were the difference in 1-run losses, such as the kick in the corner from Delmon Young in the 1-0 loss at Cleveland I cited above. I can only hope that the defensive aspect of the game will tighten up soon as the hitting and pitching have.

On paper, things should continue to be favorable for the Twins as they head to the season's midpoint. They have finally lived out their exile, and are now in the midst of playing 31 of 41 games at home. Not that they've done particularly well at home so far this year. Also, by the end of the week, they should begin to see an avalanche of players coming off the DL. Though the replacement players have begun the turnaround, they can't be expected to keep it up for long. Besides, if the Twins keep winning 9 of 16 the rest of the season, they'll just make it to .500 by the end of the year. If they want to do better than that, they're going to have to keep the pedal down.

Bold prediction: Delmon Young catches fire.

3rd Split: 4-12

Overall Record: 16-32

5th in AL Central by 14.5 games

Other splits: 6-10, 6-10

Incredibly, things got worse. The lopsided scores disappeared as the strength of opponent tapered off. But the Twins still managed to have their worst split in years. They scored 4 or more runs 7 times. They went just 3-4 in those games. They allowed 3 or fewer runs 7 times. They went just 3-4 in those games. Basically, when they pitched well, they didn't hit. When they hit well, they didn't pitch. Whatever it took to lose, they did it.

The hitting definitely improved. The Twins averaged nearly 4 RPG and hit 15 HR - double their total to date. Their overall line of .240/.297/.362 is still beneath what you'd expect from a league average SS, but it looks pretty strong compared to what came before. This is largely due to vastly improved numbers from the bottom of the order. Alexi Casilla has caught fire since moving back to 2B, and Rene Rivera, while still hitting poorly even for a backup C, looks like Mike Piazza next to Drew Butera.

The pitching stayed about the same. Which is to say, it was pretty bad. The starters eventually kept the team in the game, but when they did, the bullpen routinely coughed up the lead. The overall team ERA was essentially flat. The K/9 improved a lot, but the BB/9 and HR/9 regressed a bit. Joe Nathan, Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins landed on the DL, forcing more marginal pitchers into high-leverage situations. Phil Dumatrait has done well, but everybody else has been killed.

The defense was dreadful. 13 E committed, though they resulted in just 4 UER. Too many extra outs, too many extra bases. Too much pressure added to a lineup and pitching staff that are struggling as it is. And that doesn't even include some of the plays that weren't made because of indecisiveness or lack of range. Some of it is the scrubs, but just about everybody the Twins run out there is capable of doing better, at least on balls hit into their zone.

Even terrible baseball teams generally win 6 out of every 16 games. It's hard to lose more than that. Everybody has their bad days, but they have their good days, too. The Twins have managed to make just enough mistakes to lose even on their good days. I don't know where the bottom of this pit is, but I still can't believe they won't reach it soon. They've played poorly, but they've also been unlucky. It isn't probable that both of those things will continue at this rate.

Bold prediction: They bottom out.

Hope

Twins 2, Mariners 5

Twins 2, Mariners 1

We're 1/4 of the way through the season. This 13-27 stretch is the worst since the 2001 Twins came out of the All-Star break 11-30. But don't write them off just yet. There was some very encouraging news coming out of Tuesday night's recap. First, feast your eyes on this beauty:

7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

For the 1st time all season, Francisco Liriano pitched like he's supposed to. I know the Mariners aren't much better at hitting than the Twins are. But opposing lineups haven't been hitting Liriano too much lately. They've been walking. In this game, Liriano showed both improved control (17/26 batters faced started with strike 1) and a killer instinct once he got them to 2 strikes. Where has that been all season? Well... look at his stats by catcher:

Mauer - 7.71 ERA, 7.7 BB/9, 7.7 K/9

Rivera - 1.29 ERA, 1.3 BB/9, 11.6 K/9

Butera - 6.84 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 4.4 K/9

Small sample sizes all. Liriano has been horribly erratic, and he'll have to limit the walks if he's going to succeed going forward. But it appears that Butera isn't calling the game in such a way that would elicit swinging strikes. Looking at the staff as a whole:

Mauer - 4.04 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9

Rivera - 3.45 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 4.1 BB/9

Holm - 5.44 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

Butera - 5.58 ERA, 5.2 K/9, 4.1 BB/9

When Butera is behind the plate, all Twins pitchers have a terrible K/BB ratio. I actually find that very encouraging. As terrificly as Liriano and Nick Blackburn have done with Rivera behind the plate, I would think Gardy would want to keep that chemistry going. Since Butera and Rivera are both hitting horribly, why not go with the guy who's getting good pitching performances? And Joe Mauer will return some day. When he does, the K/BB ratio will improve, making the pitching better even as the catching spot is transformed from an automatic out into a .400+ OBP. Maybe seeing Butera outplayed by a replacement-level journeyman will help Bill Smith realize how badly the Twins need a proper backup C, and he'll do what it takes to get one.

Jason Repko started his rehab assignment yesterday, and went 2 for 5 with a HR. He will soon take the place of Ben Revere and his .167 OBP. Jim Thome is swinging the bat in Florida and should return within a week. Soon he'll be the one pinch-hitting for Rivera and Butera and Casilla. Delmon Young was rushed back too soon (evidently, a dozen or so PA against Rookie-ball pitching doesn't prepare you to face the likes of Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow and Michael Pineda), but he'll find his stroke soon enough. Tsuyoshi Nishioka is running in Florida and within a couple of weeks will be sending Matt Tolbert's and Casilla's sub-.250 OBPs out of the starting lineup. Danny Valencia is playing very well, just having unsustainably bad luck. Michael Cuddyer doesn't seem like he's doing much, but look at this:

Cuddyer 2008-2010: .269/.337/.451

Cuddyer since 4/12/11: .298/.360/.439

Once he made up the 30 or so PA he missed in spring training, he's played as well as we had any right to expect. Though his power has been lacking, and he hasn't done much with RISP, he's far from a liability.

This lineup is destined to score more runs, which brings me to the best news of all:

The Twins have been held to 3 or fewer runs in 28 of 40 games, and are 4-24 in those games.

Isn't that fantastic? That means the Twins are 9-3 in games in which they score at least 4 runs. (And 2 of the 3 losses were blown saves!) A .750 winning percentage can turn this season around very quickly, especially with the schedule lightening up a bit. They just have to score one more R/G. And they will.

Every team goes the rough spells. Look at the way the Rays and Red Sox started the season. Look at the way the Yankees are playing now. But every team has periods of prolonged success, as well. The 2001 team that was bad enough to go 11-30 was also good enough to start the season 29-12. A surge like that would get the Twins back over .500 by the mid-point of the season. And the '01 Twins weren't the only ones to have hot streaks:

2002: Beginning on June 30th, the Twins went 24-7.

2003: Coming out of the break, the Twins went 45-20 to take the division title.

2004: From August 15th to September 16th, the Twins went 23-7 to take the division title.

2005: They began the season 35-22 before fading to just over .500 when it was all over.

2006: Beginning June 8th, the Twins finished the season 71-33 to steal the division on the last day.

2007: From May 22nd through July 15th, the Twins had a 29-19 run.

2008: From June 16th to the end of August, they went 45-25.

2009: The Twins went 17-4 over the final 3 weeks to steal the division in game 163.

2010: Starting one game after the ASB, they went 46-17 to wrap up the division with 10 games yet to play.

Every Twins team for a decade has had a period of sustained winning. Any of those periods, applied to the 2011 team, would turn the season around.

The good times are coming. Will it be too late when they arrive?

Hell Week

Twins 2, Tigers 10

Twins 7, Tigers 9

Oh my sweet Lord, when is this horror show going to be over?

Twins 0, Blue Jays 2

Twins 3, Blue Jays 9 (11 innings)

Twins 3, Blue Jays 11

Seriously, why don't they just kick me in the balls?

I'll make Saturday's loss the 4th of the season squarely on the shoulders of the depth. Not just because the Twins only needed one more run over 10 innings of batting in order to win this one. Because James Hoey got absolutely torched in the 11th, and I don't think he'd be up here right now if several other guys hadn't already failed.

For the week, the Twins pitched well enough to win on Friday and Saturday and hit well enough to win on Wednesday. But whatever needs to happen in order for them to lose, happens. They're on a 110-loss pace right now. Almost nobody loses that much. To lose that much, an avalanche of things has to go wrong. And it has.

One could have predicted that a few of the Twins' moves wouldn't pan out, and that there would be some injuries. But to lose Mauer, and Nishioka, and have Casilla suck worse than he ever has, forcing Gardy to overuse Tolbert and Butera and (who are sucking worse than they ever have), let alone Butera's even worse backups? To have Nathan and Morneau each struggle mightily to recover from their 2010 injuries? To have Capps blow more than his share of saves? To have Liriano and Pavano each see significant spikes in HR/9 and BB/9 with corresponding plummets in their K/9, becoming, in effect, completely different pitchers than they were last year? To have every young player called up from AAA sputter and fail to make a positive impact?

A few of those things were bound to happen. But all of them at once? Inconceivable. And yet, here we are.

Bottomless

Twins 9, Red Sox 2

I don't think the Twins hit the ball a heckuva lot better in this game. They just got a bunch of bleeders to squeak through. A team should get its share of those, though, so it was nice to see. It was also nice to see the other team commit a litany of blunders, for once. And Trevor Plouffe enjoyed an auspicious 2011 debut, 2-4 with a BB and a HR in his 1st AB. Of course, Jim Hoey also enjoyed an auspicious 2011 debut, and look how that's turning out. Still, the SS bar hasn't been set particularly high, so he doesn't have to do too much to be a an improvement.

Unless Francisco Liriano gets his act together, Scott Baker has assumed the mantle of Twins' Ace. He allowed 2 HR, but they were solo HR, and those won't kill you, right Bert? The overall line of 8 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K was excellent, especially against a stacked offense in a hitter's park. Another quiet IP from Joe Nathan to end the game.

Twins 0, Red Sox 4

I was thrilled when the rains came after the 2nd inning. The Twins were only down 1-0, but Clay Buchholz looked like he had good stuff, so the longer the delay, the better. The Twins had just activated Kevin Slowey, and so were in perfect position drop him in for the 3rd and have him take the game into the late innings (which he did). The Sox, meanwhile, had endured this very situation just 3 days earlier, had that game go into extra innings, got a short start the following afternoon, then put 2 relievers on the DL. The fresh reliever they called up on Friday was burned in the 1st game of this series. They had perhaps 6 relievers available, but they would have to cover 7 IP, leaving many of them unavailable for the remainder of the series.

Unfortunately, Terry Francona did something that almost never happens these days: he put his starter back in after a 2+ hour rain delay. Buchholz gave the Sox 3 more IP, and was perhaps even better than he had been at the start. 4 Sox relievers finished the game with an inning apiece, none throwing more than 18 pitches. Only Michael Cuddyer had a good day at the plate.

Twins 5, Red Sox 9

The Twins put up a crooked number in the 1st inning for, what, the 2nd time all season? And you just knew they were going to have to keep tacking on. But 5 R represents a herculean effort for this lineup, so I suppose we shouldn't complain too much about the offense.

Carl Pavano got knocked around - eventually. Though he gave up a big inning in the 3rd, most of the balls in play were unfielded grounders, including the 2-R single he allowed to Adrian Gonzalez that slipped under his own glove. There were DPs unturned. 3 errors in this game leading to 2 unearned runs. With better defense, it's closer. However, Pavano and Jose Mijares were legitimately cuffed all over the field in the later innings - liners right and left. No Ks for Pavano in 5 IP. He's got some adjustments to make. Another good IP from Nathan, though.

Twins 1, Red Sox 2 (11 innings)

This game, had the Twins won, could have salvaged the series and the road trip. Nick Blackburn pitched as well as he can, allowing 0 HR and striking out 5 in 6.1 IP. Glen Perkins and Jose Mijares followed with 3.2 IP of scoreless relief. But the Twins' limp bench did them in again, as Matt Tolbert, Ben Revere and Rene Rivera combined to go 0-15 with 2 GIDP and 5 K, including 0-5 with 2 K with RISP. If they go 1-5 instead, we're probably talking about a win, here. This is the 3rd loss of the season that I'll pin on the non-depth.

Friday night's victory was the Twins' 1st at Fenway park since the final weekend of 2007, so there's some consolation there. Even good Twins teams haven't fared well in Boston. But there's still no sign of them snapping out of the team-wide funk that has them once again at the bottom of the standings. I wish had something more hopeful to say, but...

2nd Split: 6-10

Overall Record: 12-20

4th in AL Central by 9.5 games

Other splits: 6-10

Now 1/5 of the way through the season, the Twins are maintaining their 100 loss pace. There were a couple of promising 3-game winning streaks during this split, but it was framed by consecutive losses that featured shutouts and blowouts. However, the last 16 games are defined for me by what came in the middle: a humiliating 6-game skid. 3 losses at home in which the Twins looked like they neither belonged nor wanted to be on the field. 3 tight, mistake-filled losses in Kansas City, where the Twins hadn't been swept in over a decade. I would have expected at least one win in each series, which would have been enough for the Twins to tread water and remain within striking distance of .500.

Incredibly, the injury situation got worse. Delmon Young missed the entire split with a strained oblique. Jim Thome followed him a few days later. Jason Repko eventually went down with a sore quad. That left Gardy no choice but to fill out nearly every lineup with 3-4 players who didn't make the squad out of spring training. It's tough to win with a AAAA lineup, especially when 11 of the 16 games take place on the road. Only 1 week into May, the Twins have already had to call up 10 players from Rochester.

There was some progress on the hitting front. They doubled their HR output from the 1st split to a whopping 10 long balls. The walk rate improved. Michael Cuddyer and Danny Valencia have been getting better results, joining Denard Span and Jason Kubel as credible regulars. But the backups have done exceedingly poorly, particularly at catcher, where Joe Mauer's absence is felt every single game. It doesn't look as though Alexi Casilla is going to put it together, and Justin Morneau is producing the way we're used to seeing him hit in September (when he's healthy enough to be on the field in September, that is). It all came out in the wash - the offense remained basically flat when compared to the 1st 16 games. Which is to say, it still sucks.

No such ambiguity about the pitching - it definitely got worse. Scott Baker and Brian Duensing have been excellent, and Matt Capps and Glen Perkins continue to do solid work in the 'pen. Joe Nathan is showing signs of finding himself again. But, no-hitter or not, Francisco Liriano's control still looks frighteningly shaky, and Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano are getting tagged all over the field. Dusty Hughes earned a demotion back to Rochester, and Jim Hoey looks headed in that direction. Jose Mijares is the bullpen's answer to Liriano. Altogether, they averaged over 5 earned runs a game in this split.

And they didn't get much help from the defense, which committed another 11 E which resulted in 16 UER. Think about that: 1 extra run per game on average from shoddy defense. Part of it is people trying to do too much, but a lot of it comes from guys who are exposed by playing everyday play. Bench players or minor leaguers who aren't mentally consistent enough to thrive at the highest level. But who else are the Twins going to run out there?

Health is everything now. Young should be ready to return this weekend. Thome and Nishioka shouldn't be too far behind. But Mauer still isn't doing any catching, and there's no timetable yet for his return. I don't see how the Twins can go too far without him. But with 50% of the next split taking place at home, and 13 of the 16 games taking place against opponents with losing records, this is certainly an opportunity for them to start to turn things around, particularly as the uninjured regulars continue to warm up.

Bold prediction: The Twins will be closer to .500 16 games from now.

The Most Unimpressive

Twins 1, White Sox 0

Like every other Fantasy Baseball owner (who didn't drop him), I had Francisco Liriano on the bench for this game. So, naturally, the SOB pulls out the 1st CG shutout of his career. On the way to that, he managed to hand out another 6 BB while striking out only 2. My league scores those, so in that sense I'm glad I had him on the bench. But Liriano managed to get 27 outs from 24 balls in play, pitching the 1st no-hitter for the Twins since Eric Milton's in September of 1999. (I was working nights in those days, and that game started at 11:00 AM on a Saturday in order to accommodate a Gopher football game that night, so I slept through it. Yet another reason to be glad the Twins are out of the Metrodome.)

According to Game Scores, this was about the most unimpressive no-hitter in the last 30 years. Of course, that's like me saying that the 2006 Cardinals are the worst team ever to win a World Series. I'm sure that really bugs them every time they put their rings on. Things had been so bad for Liriano - his spot in the rotation was apparently in jeopardy - and for the Twins as a whole. They needed something good to happen, anything to spark them out of their slump. And while DIPS people will discount this accomplishment as a quirk of luck, I would remind them that the balls the Sox put in play were generally pretty poorly hit. How much of that is a credit to Liriano and how much a result of facing a Sox lineup that is every bit as cold as the Twins' I don't know. But anytime a pitcher can hold a team of Major League batters hitless for a full 9 innings, the guy probably deserves some props.

The control problems Liriano continued to show certainly don't make me any more confident about what he'll be able to give in his next start. I'm very much hoping that the Twins will use Thursday's off day to give him some extra rest, starting Nick Blackburn on regular rest for Monday's finale in Boston. After throwing 123 pitches, I'm sure he could use an extra day. And I'd much rather have him pitching at home against the Tigers. Because if he walks 6 against the Red Sox, he's going to get killed.

During his meetings with pitching coach Rick Anderson between starts, it was determined that Liriano would avoid using his 2-seamer for awhile. That's his GB pitch, and it was immediately missed, as he gave up more flies than grounders for just the second time this season. But most of those flies came off his changeup, and they tended to be popups. Mixed in properly, it can obviously be an effective pitch, especially if he can get back to getting swings-and-misses with his slider on the other side of the plate. He still needs to do a much better job of throwing strike one, though: he started 19 of 30 plate appearances in this game with a ball.

Whatever you think of the quality of this performance, it was absolutely necessary, because the Twins still can't hit a lick. Jason Kubel excepted, of course. His HR accounted for the only run of the game. I liked the aggressiveness I saw on the bases, though. Danny Valencia tested Juan Pierre's noodle arm and stretched a single into the game's only 2B. And though he was thrown out thanks to a friendly bounce off the wall, Alexi Casilla was right to try to gain second after Edwin Jackson threw past 1st on Casilla's 2-out bunt single. Even after the power comes online, the Twins won't be their best unless they force the issue like that.

Twins 3 White Sox 2

These 2 free-falling teams each battled to be the one to give this game away. The Sox managed a whopping 6 H in this one, despite facing a starter in Blackburn who has averaged 9+ H/9 for his career so far. The Twins' pitchers helped them make up for that by issuing 5 BB and 3 HBP. The Sox declined that generosity by getting picked off, caught stealing, and hitting into 2 DPs.

For their part, the Sox gave the Twins 4 BB, an extra base on an error, and a critical gift base hit when Omar Vizquel failed to cover 1B on Matt Tolbert's sac bunt. The Twins reciprocated by getting picked off twice and caught on an attempted steal of 3B with 2 outs. The Vizquel gaffe proved to be the difference in the game, though, as the Twins used that extra out to score 2 R. But they gave one of them back in the 8th with a Drew Butera PB. C'mon, which of you guys wants to lose this game most? Attaway, White Sox.

Though the Twins did basically nothing in this series to show that they are on their way out of the woods, they did establish that their recent dominance over the Sox and at US Cellular Field is still in play for 2011. Let that be in everybody's heads the next time these 2 teams connect. For the time being, the Twins proved conclusively that they are not the most unimpressive team in the division. And that makes me damn proud.

Pressing, Depressing

Twins 3, Royals 4

This is the 2nd loss of the season that I'm going to pin squarely on the shoulders of the Twins inadequate depth. Between 9 H (5 for extra bases) and 3 BB, 8 different guys in the lineup reached base at least once. The one who didn't: Drew Butera, who ended 3 innings with men on base, including hanging Danny Valencia out to dry on a missed squeeze bunt. Any kind of rally sustaining PAs from him might have given the Twins' pitchers a bigger cushion.

Scott Baker was good enough that it almost didn't matter. He lasted into the 7th, when he was relieved with 1 out by the freshly called up Alex Burnett. Burnett got the last 2 outs of that inning, and the 1st of the 8th before allowing a 2B to Wilson Betemit. Matt Capps was warming in the bullpen, and had needed just 6 pitches to complete his inning the day before. But Gardy elected to save him for a save opportunity that would never come, and instead rely upon a young reliever who didn't earn a spot on the opening day roster to protect a 1-run lead with the tying run in scoring position.

And Burnett actually did his job, though he got into trouble by falling behind just about everybody. It was the defense that did him in, as Alexi Casilla clanged a one-hopper to his glove side, and then Butera threw the ball into CF while attempting to gun down super fast PR Jarrod Dyson. That let the tying run score and put the winning run at 3B with just one out. After a BB, the winning run came home on a little flare behind 3B that Casilla flagged down but couldn't get to the plate in time to stop Dyson. Had either play been made, the Twins would have taken a lead into the 9th - the slower Betemit would likely have stayed put on a short fly to the SS.

Twins 2, Royals 11

On Saturday, the Twins managed to get themselves shut down on 2 H by Sean O'Sullivan, a starter so erratic that he nearly threw half his pitches out of the strike zone. Actually, he threw more than half his pitches out of the zone, since several of the balls the Twins put in play were plummeting below the knees. Incredibly, they were lucky to get the 1st H (it was an attempted sac bunt that drew a wild throw) and both R, one of which scored on a DP (thank goodness for the extra out the Royals gave), and the other on another throwing error that should have ended the inning. Altogether, the Twins drew 7 BB, and had men on base nearly constantly for the 1st 6 innings, but could only get what the royals handed to them.

The Twins handed one back in the 3rd on a bounced relay throw from "2B" Michael Cuddyer on what should have been an inning-ending DP. The Royals took one on a no-doubter HR from Billy Butler. And the Twins gave another one away when rookie Rene Tosoni played a leadoff single into a triple with an ill-advised dive. Brian Duensing took a tough-luck loss, though he deserved to allow only 1 ER.

The wheels came off in the 8th once again. Joe Nathan gave up a 2B to Butler, then retired 2 of the next 3 around an IBB. He made one huge mistake: hitting Matt Treanor (a BA under .200 - shouldn't he be on our team?) with 3-2 pitch to load the bases. Gardy went to Jose Mijares, who did his job by getting the lefty to hit a weak-ass ground ball. Too weak for Cuddyer, who had no play by the time he reached it, allowing an insurance run to score. Jim Hoey came on and walked in another insurance run, then got a routine grounder. The throw went to Justin Morneau, who simply didn't catch the ball. 2 more R. Then a 3-run bomb to Alex Gordon. Then another weak grounder that Cuddyer didn't have the range to turn into an out. Then a bloop down the LF line that Tosoni bobbled, allowing the final R to score. When the dust settled, a tight game had turned into a laugher. I didn't think it was funny, though.

Twins 3, Royals 10

Time for a closed-door team meeting, at which Denard Span spoke up to try to inspire his teammates. Too eager to make his actions speak as loudly as his words, he went hitless in 5 AB while seeing a total of 13 pitches. That on a day when his teammates once again walked 7 times. Let it come to you, Denard.

Carl Pavano walked away looking like he didn't know how to pitch, and took his frustrations out on a garbage can in the dugout. You can't do it all yourself, Carl. But he wasn't exactly cuffed around until the 6th inning. Everything that happened before that was the fault of more shoddy IF defense, and Cuddyer wasn't even in the lineup on this day. Pavano was lucky to get an unassisted putout on a chopper to the right of the mound when both Morneau and Luke Hughes charged the ball and nobody covered 1B. Later, the Twins botched a rundown on a pickoff throw when Morneau got in the way of Pavano, who had rotated in to cover 1B, and caught the ball behind the retreating baserunner. That extra out would turn into a run. The Twins gave the Royals 2 extra outs in the 4th, both courtesy of Casilla bobbles. Slow it down, Alexi. Or maybe get a new glove.

Casilla had his best day of the year at the plate, with 2 3B and a BB. Morneau finally got his 1st tater of the year, just barely sneaking one over the RF fence. Jason Kubel continued his scorching hitting, going 1 for 2 with 2 BB to raise his line to .354/.406/.510. Glen Perkins had another solid outing in relief. That's it for the positives.

In contrast to the listless effort they gave in the previous series, the intensity on the part of every Twins player to be the one to lift the team out of this slump was palpable in KC. But the results were no better, as though they were tangled in a knot that gets tighter the more they struggle. This funk now most definitely mental as much as it is physical, and they may require some shock to the system to get themselves out of it.

Notes:

• To that end, Kevin Slowey pitched 5.2 IP at Fort Myers yesterday and is ready to be activated from the DL. That could happen in a starting capacity if Francisco Liriano or Nick Blackburn fail to pull themselves together.
• Kyle Gibson had his 4th consecutive strong outing at Rochester. Through 5 GS he has 26 IP, 22 H, 10 ER, 3 HR, 4 BB and 27 K for a 1.00 WHIP and 3.46 ERA. He's giving every indication that he'll be ready for a June call-up should the opportunity arise.
• Trevor Plouffe has shaken off his brutal spring to put up some very strong numbers in his 1st few weeks with the Red Wings. He's batting .282/.344/.590 with 4 2B, 3B, and 6 HR. The reviews on his defense are still mixed, but he's got to look like an upgrade to Casilla right now.

April Review

Twins' Record: 9-17

4th in AL Central by 9 games

Hey, it could have been worse - according to the Pythagorean W-L, the Twins should actually be 7-19!

This was a historical bad opening month for them. They set a franchise record for April losses, and finished at the bottom of the league standings in R, HR, SLG, OPS and ERA. As a team, they've hit .233/.291/.322 - worse than the career averages of Nick Punto. As a team. Only 2 players have BA over .250, and just 3 have OBP over .300 and SLG% over .350. Only 3 players have double-digit BB%. Michael Cuddyer leads them in HR with 3. A team that was supposed to be emphasizing speed has just 11 SB, and no player has more than 2. No hitting + no walking + no power + no aggressive baserunning = no scoring.

Half the rotation has generated more poor starts than good. The bullpen did pretty well for the 1st couple of weeks, but then suffered meltdown after meltdown. In a remarkable surprise, the only reliever with significant appearances who's been consistently reliable is Glen Perkins. Twins pitchers have suffered from a higher than average BABIP, but they've also hurt themselves by walking 91 batters in 26 games, placing them 10th in the AL in a category in which Gardy's teams have always been among the best in the league.

Shoddy defense has also hurt the Twins, though not in the way we might have expected. The outfielders generally had a pretty good month, with Denard Span, Jason Kubel and Delmon Young all rating positively on most of the metrics. The infielders grade out as roughly average or poor, though. For the month, the defense committed 17 E, leading to 16 unearned runs, ranking them 8th and 12th in the AL in those respective categories.

To be fair, there have been a slew of injuries, including several which struck positions at which the Twins had particularly poor depth. Joe Mauer's start wasn't nearly to his standard, but his replacements haven't hit half as well as he was doing. Tsuyoshi Nishioka didn't last 6 games before breaking his leg; his loss has invited increased ABs from Matt Tolbert and rookie Luke Hughes. Kevin Slowey went on the DL after just 3 appearances, opening a revolving door for mediocre relievers to be rushed to the Major League 'pen.

And it's been an especially difficult schedule to this point, with just 10 home games. Half of the opponents faced so far finished last season with winning records. That, plus some ill-timed blown saves, kept the Twins from winning their 1st 6 series, but at least they were usually in the games. Just when things seemed to be looking up, they staggered into May on a miserable losing streak, which included a 3-game sweep in which they were outscored 29-6. It was their worst start since they opened the 2006 season at 9-16.

The similarities to 2006 go beyond the W-L record. Through 25 games, that team was hitting .251/.309/.366, with virtually the same number of BB, HBP, SF, SH, GIDP, Net SB and XBH - albeit twice as many HR. That power difference, plus a better BABIP, helped them to score 17 more runs in one fewer game. But their pitching was even worse, with a 6.35 ERA and a staggering 37 HR allowed in 214 IP. That team also staggered into May on a miserable losing streak, which included a 3-game sweep in which they were outscored 33-1!

The 2006 Twins rebounded to win at least 15 games in every subsequent month of the season, eventually earning the division title. They were trailing the Tigers, who would make the postseason as the wild card, by 8 games, and were also behind the previous season's World Series Champs, the White Sox. The 2011 Twins are 9 games out of 1st place in the AL Central, but they trail the Indians and Royals, and like the 2001 Twins and the 2003 Royals, neither one of those teams is likely to sustain their hot starts to a playoff spot. The true contenders are the Tigers, who lead the Twins by just 2.5 games, and the Sox, who are tied with the Twins in the cellar.

This Twins team can definitely bounce back. The schedule is going to get easier, although we won't stat to see that for a couple weeks yet. But more importantly, this is a talented team. Hardly anybody is performing remotely close to their established standards. They're all slumping deeply, horribly, together. Anybody can beat a team that's going through that. Eventually, though, they'll all get hot together. And when they do, no one will be able to stop them.

Ugly grades follow. I'm only going to mention hitters with at least 29 PA (to give Nishioka a break) and pitchers with at least 8 IP (your relief is palpable, Jeff Manship!):

Getting It Done

Jason Kubel - On a team where just about everybody's OPS is under .700, his is over .900. He's holding his own vs. LHP. And he's actually been an asset in the OF so far. The Twins' April MVP.

Denard Span - He took about 10 days off from drawing BB in the middle of the month, and I'd like to see a few more XBH, but he's otherwise delivered. His defense in CF has been superb. Why he's not running more, I have no idea.

Brian Duensing - He's averaged nearly 7 IP/GS, and is pacing the staff in ERA, BB/9 and HR/9. Throw out his 1st 3 batters faced in NYC, and he looks even better.

Scott Baker - 3 magnificent starts in a row in which he looked like the poor man's Ace we saw in 2008. Leading the starters in K/9 and WHIP.

Glen Perkins - I couldn't be more surprised that he's the one member of the bullpen who hasn't struggled. He's been a little lucky on balls in play, but he's limited BB and kept the ball in the yard.

So Far, So Good

Matt Capps - 1 too many HR allowed to the Rays, but otherwise a solid start. Props for being the only Twins pitcher not to issue a BB this month.

Need To Pick It Up

Joe Mauer - Apparently he wasn't fit when the season opened. That's probably because he wasn't ready for spring training when it was time to report. If he's over his sickness, he needs to get down to Fort Myers and start catching, even if it's just for a few innings at a time at first. His "replacements" are absolutely killing the team.

Justin Morneau - He seems to have put his concussion symptoms behind him. Now he's just got to get back into the flow of playing again.

Michael Cuddyer - Another slow starter who didn't get his reps in during spring training. I'm disappointed in his power numbers, yet he's leading the team in HR. Ugh.

Delmon Young - Skipped half of spring training, hit the crap out of the ball when he finally got into Grapefruit League games, then abruptly stopped hitting once the regular season started. On the DL trying to get loose.

Jim Thome - Injuries to other players have forced him into way more games than he should be playing, especially vs. LHP. The discipline is still there. Now we need to see the power.

Danny Valencia - At no point in his professional baseball career has he posted a full-season BABIP lower than .310. This month it was at .225. His BB rate is excellent. He'll be fine.

Alexi Casilla - However bad you thought he was, he's not this bad. I hope he gets another couple of weeks to warm up. The tools are still there for him to be decent if he can just get out of his own way.

Drew Butera - The average NL pitcher hits better than him. He would have to be the best catch-and-throw guy ever to justify his pathetic hitting. But he's not.

Luke Hughes - A guy who really should just be playing against LHP has been forced into some fairly regular duty. Still better than...

Matt Tolbert - The only Twins hitter who has yet to draw a BB. A "scrappy" guy who has yet to steal a base. Not a great player, but he can do better than this.

Jason Repko - I like the BB rate. 24 PA in 26 games seems reasonable. For what he is, these aren't terrible numbers, but he's capable of better.

Francisco Liriano - What's your freakin' problem? Just throw the ball the way you did last year! Jeez...

Carl Pavano - Too many BB, not enough K, too many HR.

Nick Blackburn - If he can't keep the ball in the park, he's screwed. 1.6 HR/9 this month.

Jose Mijares - 7 BB in 8 IP isn't going to work, no matter how well everything else is going.

Joe Nathan - His demotion from the Closer job was probably the most depressing thing about this month. It had to be done - he simply didn't have his velocity or command. His last few appearances have been pretty good (2.2 IP, H, IBB, HBP, 4 K), so he may be on the upswing.

Dusty Hughes - Note: if somebody isn't good enough to stay on the Royals' roster, you probably shouldn't want him, either.

Carnage

Twins 2, Rays 8

Twins 3, Rays 15

Twins 1, Rays 6

Even though everything appeared to hunky-dory at the end of the weekend's mini-sweep of the Indians, and the team got an extra day off with a rainout on Tuesday night, they somehow showed up to the ballpark in worse shape than when they'd left it more than 72 hours earlier. Delmon Young wasn't ready to play after a week on the shelf, and had to be placed on the DL. Jim Thome and Jason Repko had nagging, day-to-day injuries that kept them out of the lineup for the series. Carl Pavano was the latest to catch the flu, pushing back his expected start this weekend.

So, once again Gardy was forced to fill out lineup cards inundated with the scrubs, and the results were predictably pathetic. Thome would have been particularly useful against the 3 RHPs the Rays threw in the series. Toss in the fact that Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel didn't hit in the same games, and you've got a lot of quick, easy innings for the Rays' talented young starters. To top it all off, the weather was horrible. The end result was a Twins squad that, top to bottom, looked like it didn't want to be there, and played accordingly. For the series, they were outscored 29-6 by a Rays team that came in hitting just about as badly as the Twins had this season.

I won't go into any of the individual performances. I find Francisco Liriano's total lack of command absolutely mystifying and infuriating, but I don't have anything smart to say about it. I'm a little puzzled by what the Twins opted to do logistically this week, though.

With Pavano sick, the plan was evidently to push his next scheduled turn back to Sunday. That's fine, but I don't see why it necessitated giving a spot start to a replacement level pitcher on Thursday. Scott Baker last pitched a week ago Thursday, and Brian Duensing pitched on Saturday. Either one of those guys could have comfortably thrown one half of the double-header. The other could start Friday's series in KC on extra rest. For Saturday, they could call up Kevin Slowey to go 3-4 innings, then hand the ball to Glen Perkins for another 3 or so. Or call up Kyle Gibson, the Twins' #1 or #2 prospect (depending who you ask). In his last 3 GS, he's allowed 4 ER on 10 H and 4 BB in 17 IP with 17 K. He would have been pitching on 3 days' rest, but so was Anthony Swarzak.

Ah, Swarzak. I guess there was no harm in tendering him a contract, but I would have much rather seen him banished from the 40-man roster instead of Rob Delaney. He was terrible at AAA last year, and then he was terrible in the Venezuelan Winter League in the offseason. In his last 3 GS, he allowed 11 ER on 18 H and 5 BB in 15.2 IP with 7 K. On Thursday night, he allowed 5 ER on 8 H and 1 BB in 5.1 IP with 1 K. Whoa - didn't see that coming! He was promptly returned to the minors. Please, can that be the last we see of him?

Eric Hacker wouldn't have been a much better option, but he was originally slated start on Thursday. At least he was already on the 25-man roster. But he was used up in long-relief on Wednesday when Liriano lasted just 3+ IP. Question: why is tomorrow's scheduled starter the 1st guy up in the 'pen when tonight's starter struggles? There are 7 guys in the bullpen. All of them just had at least 2 days off. If you give all of them except Hacker 1 IP on Wednesday, everybody but Joe Nathan should be available to go on Thursday, too, right? Duensing ought to be able to throw an inning or 2 on Wednesday and still be OK for Saturday, right? I would have done everything possible to avoid using Swarzak. But I guess I just see the world differently than Bill Smith does.

On to KC, where the Royals are coming off an 0-6 road trip. They're just as cold as the Twins. Something's got to give! At least the rotation is set up to make things hard on their offense. If Thome can return, the Twins may have enough offense to put this ugly week behind them.

Bless the Rains

Twins vs. Indians, postponed

Would it be hyperbole to say that this rainout was the best thing to happen to the Twins all season? Neither Justin Morneau nor Delmon Young were in the announced lineup, meaning a 4th straight game with a 2-man bench and a batting order featuring 3 of Jason Repko, Drew Butera, Matt Tolbert, Luke Hughes and Steve Holm, in addition to Alexi Casilla. That murderer's row helped the Twins put up 7 R over the previous 3 games, an anemic output even by their pathetic standards.

Thanks to Mother Nature, a game that would have been played with the Twins at their weakest will now be made up after the All-Star break. Barring any unforeseen setbacks, Joe Mauer and Tsuyoshi Nishioka will be back in the lineup by then. Everyone should have shaken off the effects of their shortened spring training and be fully into the flow of the season. Coming into the game, the Indians couldn't have been hotter, and the Twins couldn't have been colder - those situations should be at least more equalized later in the summer. And by late July Bill Smith should be making moves to strengthen the Twins' shortcomings, whereas the Indians will probably looking to unload Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore for more prospects. It will be a lot easier to make this game a W at another time. Phew!

Twins 10, Indians 3

Justin Morneau is back. And I don't just mean that Gardy finally was able to write his name into the cleanup spot after a week battling the flu. He hit like he used to, like he hasn't all season, driving the ball up the middle and the opposite way. One of those was the game-breaking hit, a 2-run single after the Indians had opted to intentionally BB Jason Kubel to load the bases. Hopefully we've seen the last of that.

10 runs! 13 hits! 5 walks! This is the offense we thought we had going into the season. Repko and Casilla kept the line moving with 2 H apiece, twice setting up crooked number innings. To top it off, Joe Nathan finished the game with a dominant, vintage inning, striking out 2 and needing just 13 pitches to retire the side.

Twins 4, Indians 3

3B coach Steve Liddle and the baserunners need to get on the same page. What should have been an insurmountable 3rd-inning outburst was reduced to just 2 R thanks to 2 guys getting hosed at the plate by Shin-Soo Choo. Casilla was first; he got a late sign from Liddle, so he decided to look into RF himself just as Liddle emphatically put up the stop sign. Morneau followed with a booming 2-R double that short-hopped the wall in CF. Michael Cuddyer slipped a single into RF in the next AB. On that play, Liddle's hold was again late, but meek, a sort of half-hearted "Stop?" just as Morneau went past to his doom.

Target Field kept 4 balls in the yard that might have been HR in a lot of other parks. Thankfully for the Twins, a replay review found that Michael Brantley's drive struck the top corner of the limestone facing of the short porch in RF. Jim Thome clobbered 2 shots that bounced high off the 18' wall in the RF corner. And Kubel's game-winning double hit high off the big wall in right center. Kubel has been a beast all year; now with Cuddyer, Thome and Morneau starting to heat up, things could get pretty fun if Delmon Young can get himself back on track.

Over the weekend, the Indians, Royals and White Sox were swept, while the Twins and Tigers went unbeaten. That tightened the standings slightly, and sent the Sox into the cellar. The Twins are just 4 games out of 1st place, with their worst baseball of the season hopefully behind them.

Out of Their Depth

Twins 5, Orioles 3

Francisco Liriano pitches into the 7th inning for his 1st QS of the year. But I actually liked his previous performance better. Until the 7th, the O's didn't hit the ball any harder than KC did, but managed just 2 H as the BABIP gods smiled on Frankie for a change. But he had a brutal 2/5 K/BB ratio for the game, and only one of the ball-four pitches was even close to being a strike. The 2 HR in the 7th came on hangers way up in the zone. Why can't he locate? Nice to get a win from him, but he's still not where he needs to be to carry this team.

You know it's your night when you get 3 RBI on 2 H from Drew Butera, Alexi Casilla draws a BB to load the bases, and an insurance run comes home on a WP. And they needed every bit of it, as the Twins' closer came on and served up yet another HR in the bottom of the 9th. Spectacular debut for Jim Hoey as the setup guy, though. Hopefully he can build on that.

Twins 0, Orioles 11

If you're going to give up 11, you might as well not score any.

Joe Nathan is starting to remind me of Superman after he gave up his powers. (Did I just date myself?)

Twins 4, Orioles 5

I had a notion to pin a couple of the losses in Tampa on the Twins' pathetic bench players. But with 2 losses coming on blown leads in the 9th and the other not particularly close, I didn't think the charge would stick. This game, though, is on their hands. With Joe Mauer and Tsuyoshi Nishioka on the DL and Justin Morneau and Delmon Young out with the flu, Gardy was forced to start both Jason Kubel and Jim Thome against a LHP, plus fill out the lineup with Jason Repko, Luke Hughes, Steve Holm and Matt Tolbert. That foursome combined to go 1 for 15 with a BB, and the H was a bunt single. Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, Thome and Danny Valencia all reached base twice, so the bottom of the order had plenty of chances to extend rallies and knock in runs. But they didn't, because most of them don't belong in the Majors, or if they do, it's because of something other than their (in)ability to hit. Zach Britton was apparently battling an illness during the game, but even in his weakened state he was too much for the Twins' scrubs.

And still, with all that working against them, they came within a few feet of a game-tying HR on the final swing of the night. Argh! I'm going to remind you of this loss when the tight race rolls around in September.

Twins 3, Orioles 1

Until everybody gets healthy and the bats wake up, this is what it's going to take for the Twins to win. Scott Baker was at his best: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K. That's 2 very good starts in a row for him, lowering his ERA to 3.24 and his WHIP to 1.12, with nearly 9 K/9. Those are the ace-type numbers that he's capable of, and will need to continue to put up, especially with Liriano still struggling with his control.

2 HR in the same game! 2 straight days with a HR has Cuddyer's OPS up over .700! Now, if we could just start hitting them with somebody on base...

1st Split: 6-10

5th in AL Central by 6 games

Click here for a reminder of why I do these.

Last fall, I advocated a quiet offseason for the Twins. Their resources were somewhat limited, and there was no way of knowing which of the many players coming back from down seasons and injuries would fail to bounce back in 2011. If it turned out that everyone was healthy and productive, they could spend on luxury upgrades to an already successful team. But if it turned out that one or more positions had broken down, they would be in position to shore up those specific areas. Unfortunately, that strategy, combined with a fairly unimpressive slate of prospects at AAA, would mean that they would begin the season with a disquieting lack of depth, especially at the up-the-middle positions and 1B.

Needless to say, the Twins haven't been healthy or productive so far. It started in spring training, when Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano all joined the program late due to lingering physical troubles from the offseason. Kevin Slowey and Tsuyoshi Nishioka hit the DL after the 1st week of the season. Mauer joined them a week later. Now Morneau is sick. That's forced Cuddyer to start more than half of his games in the IF, where he's even more of a defensive liability. Drew Butera is now the primary catcher, with AAA filler Steve Holm as the backup. AAA filler Eric Hacker has been called up to fill in for Slowey. What began the season as a pretty good starting roster has become inundated with replacement level scrubs.

The hitters who missed half of spring training haven't done a thing at the plate. Mauer (.235/.289/.265), Morneau (.208/.250/.302), Cuddyer (.228/.279/.281) and Young (.228/.286/.281) have yet to put a ball in the seats in over 200 combined PA. The terrible BA are exacerbated by a team-wide fear of drawing walks: the Twins are last in the AL in that category. Add that to their MLB-low 5 HR, and it's not surprising to find them at the bottom of the leader board in OBP, SLG%, IsoP, OPS and RS. We heard a lot in the offseason about how the front office was trying to add some team speed. That has resulted in 7 SB so far, tied for 10th in the league. Nishioka has been hurt and Casilla can't get on base, but Denard Span (.313/.343/.422) has been at 1B plenty, and he has as many steals (1) as Jason Kubel (.316/.361/.491). Those two, incidentally, got their reps in during spring training.

The pitching, despite some rather loud setbacks, has largely been decent. After sleepwalking through the 1st 2 games of the season, they've allowed 53 R over the last 14 games for an ERA comfortably under 4.00. Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing, Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn have all been solid, averaging about 6 IP/GS with good ERAs and (for them) K/9 - especially if you give the first 3 a mulligan on their shaky, season-opening innings. Liriano has struggled, mainly due to terrible command and somewhat reduced velocity (related to a shortened spring training, perhaps?). The bullpen has had a couple of bright spots, but those are overshadowed by the failures of Joe Nathan and Matt Capps, who have blown 3 saves between them. Dusty Hughes and Jeff Manship have been horrible, with Manship earning a demotion to AAA yesterday. Hopefully we've seen the last of him.

The defense hasn't been stellar, but it's been a pleasant surprise in a lot of ways. Nishioka had a very jittery debut in the field, but the rest of the team has made just 7 E. They've resulted in 4 unearned runs so far, though I think Cuddyer should have been charged with an E and UER at the end of Kansas City's big inning vs. Liriano. The surprise has been the play of the corner OF, where Young and Kubel have made a ton of catches at the fringes of their range. Maybe those would have been easier catches with better fielders, but they've made the plays they were capable of so far.

It's been a flat-out lousy start. But, thanks to the fact that several of their opponents have been scuffling offensively as well, the Twins have managed to stay in most of the games so far. In fact, if Nathan and Capps had done their jobs, this could have been a .500 split. That's extraordinary when you think of how all-around awfully the Twins have played. The good news: this is only 1/10th of the season, they're only 1.5 games behind Detroit and 1 behind the White Sox (the true contenders for the division title), and there's nowhere to go but up.

Bold Prediction: The Twins will hit at least 12 HR over the next 16 games.

Save Me

Twins 3, Rays 4 (10 innings)

Twins 2, Rays 5

Twins 3, Rays 4

Twins 4, Rays 2

Any time a Closer blows a save, it tends to overshadow everything that came before it in the game. Whatever the circumstances leading up to it, all that guy had to do was hold the lead for one inning and his team would have had a win in the books. The significance of the Closer is doubly emphasized when the offense promptly retakes the lead in the top of the 10th, but the other Closer comes in and also blows a save in the bottom half. And it is tripled when the same 2 guys go out there 2 days later and give up late-inning runs, again costing the team a win. And it gets even a little more emphasis from the fact that the SP in those 2 games had completely shut down the opposition, allowing just 1 R on 8 H and 3 BB with 13 K in 15 IP.

It's easy to blame this series loss on Joe Nathan and Matt Capps. After all, if they had done their jobs, the Twins would have walked away from Tropicana Field with 3 wins instead of 3 losses. But I'd like to make sure the offense gets its fair share of the blame. In those losing efforts, the hitters went 3 for 23 (.130) with RISP. Even productive outs in many cases might have resulted in the 1 or 2 extra runs the team needed to put the game away, but they couldn't muster those, either.

It would be nice to pin that futility on the lack of depth at the up-the-middle positions - Luke Hughes and Steve Holm had chances to sustain a couple of rallies on Saturday and didn't. But just about everybody in the lineup has been guilty of that at one time or another. When Casilla and Span set the table, Morneau doesn't hit, and the rallies fizzle. When he and Thome do hit, Delmon and Cuddyer don't, and the rallies fizzle. When they hit, Casilla doesn't, and the rallies fizzle. Nobody's getting the timely hits right now.

With neither the defense nor the bullpen looking terribly sharp in the early-going either, at least the starting pitching has been strong. In this series, all 4 starters were still on the mound in the 7th inning. Nick Blackburn's QS through 6 IP was quickly forgotten when he served up a no-out, 2-run HR in the 7th, but he'd pitched 5 stellar shutout innings prior to seeing the wheels start to come off in the 6th. The starters have definitely stepped up and done their part to help carry the offense through this slump. With them pitching so well, the hitters don't have to do too much more to get this thing turned around.

Next stop: Baltimore, where the Orioles have lost 7 in a row. It's still the road, it's the AL East. But it's also a good opportunity to come home with a couple more wins.

Notes:

• Joe Mauer's vague but persistent soreness sent him to the DL after Thursday night's game with what was initially diagnosed as bilateral leg weakness. By the end of the weekend it appeared that the cause was a viral infection which caused him to lose about 12 pounds in a matter of days. He seems to be on the mend already, and should be more or less back to full strength by the time his DL stint is up at the end of the month.
• Nathan has been demoted to low-leverage situations until he can get himself back to form. I don't know how many strong outings he'll need to have to reclaim the Closer job from Capps, but I do expect him to improve as the season goes along.
• Denard Span and Jason Kubel were 2 of the guys from whom I expected bounce-back seasons in 2011, and they're each off to great starts. Span is hitting .339/.371/.458, while Kubel's 2nd straight game with a HR lifted his line to .321/.368/.509. They are the only guys currently in the lineup who are enjoying BABIPs above the league average. Those will come down eventually, so they'd each better start working counts and drawing walks the way they've shown us they can in recent seasons if they want to keep up their OBPs.
• Joe Benson kept hitting this weekend, adding a 3B and raising his line to .385/.442/.615, with a K% that is presently just under 18%. So far, so good there.
• There are 2 other prospects who I'd especially like to see work their way into the Twins' 2012 plans. Chris Parmelee could make himself into a viable lefty platoon option in the OF, perhaps replacing Jason Kubel. But, like Benson, he needs to hit well enough early in order to earn a quick promotion to Rochester. He hit his 1st HR of the season today and is off to a .357/.372/.548 start. Needs to walk more, though.
• The other is Rene Tosoni, who is trying to bounce back from an injury-shortened 2010. He would make a nice upgrade to Jason Repko, since he can do all the things Repko does, plus hit. He's already got a 9-game hitting streak which has him at .324/.381/.676 with 4 2B and 3 HR.

Better...

Twins 4, Royals 3 (10 innings)

Twins 5, Royals 10

9 runs in 2 games. Not kicking ass yet, but definitely an improvement. The Twins saw 7 of 9 starters reach base in each game, including multi-hit efforts from Denard Span, Matt Tolbert, Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Luke Hughes. Still not slugging very much (just 4 XBH - all doubles), or working counts (4 BB) or creating havoc on the basepaths (1 SB), though. All of those elements will have to be in place before the offense can really take off. Nice to see some of the BAs starting to come up, though.

The back end of the bullpen is working fabulously so far. Liberated from the Closer label, Matt Capps is free to to be a setup workhorse, locking down the 8th inning but often putting out fires in the 7th, too. Joe Nathan and Jose Mijares have kept the opposition quiet since their jittery opening weekend. Dusty Hughes combined with them to shut down the Royals over the last 4 IP of Tuesday night's game on just 50 pitches.

Much has been made of Gardy's pre-game comment that he had asked Francisco Liriano to try to pitch to contact more. Liriano certainly followed that game plan, allowing 19 of the 24 batters he faced to put the ball in play. Those batters accumulated 8 H, all in a hellish 4th inning. In the other 4 IP Liriano completed, he retired 13 batters quietly (Tolbert's throwing error required an extra out), including 4 K and 0 BB. He was averaged just over 3 pitches/PA in the game.

There's a happy medium, I think, in which Liriano would generally pitch to contact, but revert to trying to strike everyone out with RISP. Yesterday, he had a 1-2 count on Billy Butler and an 0-2 count on Wilson Betemit, but didn't try to put either one away with his unhittable slider down and in. Johan Santana was phenomenal at changing his approach with runners on, one of the reasons his career strand rate is so high. Liriano needs to learn to do that, too.

Still, I can't be too upset about the pitches that were actually put into play in that inning. They were just about all at or below the knees. 6 of the 8 H touched the ground in the IF, just a step or so out of the reach of the fielders. The 2 that didn't were a soft liner off the end of the bat and a chip-shot blooper over the drawn-in IF. The Royals didn't really hit anything hard off Liriano all day. On most days, the sort of performance he gave on the mound should have had him beginning the 8th inning with a 3-4 hitter and a very low pitch count.

That being the case, I was surprised that he got a lightning-quick hook when Betemit drew a leadoff BB in the 6th. It was Liriano's only BB of the game. If it had come on 4 straight well out of the zone, I could understand it. But it was a 7-pitch PA, and the 3-2 pitch was no more than belt high over the outer half of the plate. If the ump calls Betemit out there, would Gardy still have yanked Frankie after the next baserunner? I know the offense had just put up a crooked number, and you don't want to risk giving the momentum back, but don't you have to show a little more confidence in your starter there?

Over the last few years, it seems like the Royals get off to a good start thanks to a high team BA, then make easy outs for the next 4 months, then get feisty again in September when they finally ditch their lousy veterans in favor of the kids who've been clobbering AAA all summer. Looks like they may be in store for more of the same in 2011.

Note:

• Joe Benson was going to have to have a tremendous season in order to get the Twins to put him in their plans for 2012 (and consider letting Cuddyer walk after this season). The odds of that happening were lengthened significantly when he was optioned to AA New Britain to start the season, even though he hit .251/.336/.527 there last season on his way to earning the organization's Player of the Year award. I guess they want to see more BA and fewer Ks from him before they'll move him up to Rochester. So far, so good. In his 1st 7 games, Benson hit .393/.433/.571 with 2 doubles, 1 HR, 3/3 SB and an OF assist. His 21.4% K rate over that week is still high, but a major improvement over what he did last year. He isn't likely to keep that slash line up in the coming weeks, but a fast start means that even a few average weeks to follow will have his numbers looking pretty darn good by the end of April. We need to get him up to AAA ASAP.

Good Pitching Beats Bad Hitting

Twins 2, Athletics 1

Twins 0, Athletics 1

Twins 3, Athletics 5

5 runs in 3 games.

I know the A's have good pitching. Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez and Brandon McCarthy are all former top prospects who look poised to make good on their promise. The A's relief corps was a strength last year, and they used free agency to add a prominent member from each of the Twins' (Brian Fuentes) and Rays' (Grant Balfour) dispersed bullpens. Despite the slew of errors they committed in the 1st week of the season, the A's have a solid defense, with average or better defenders at just about every position. It was tough to score on them last year, and it looks like it's going to be even tougher this year.

However...

That doesn't account for the magnitude of offensive ineptitude we saw on display this weekend. The Twins were already in a horrific funk from their opening road trip, and the A's excellent run prevention merely exacerbated was already a big problem. Now, through 3 series, the Twins rank 2nd to last in the AL in BA, OBP, SLG% and WAR, and dead last in HR, IsoP, SB and BB%. That means they aren't getting on base, and when they do, it's only to 1B, and then they stay there.

At the end of Saturday's game I was stewing a bit to have allowed only 2 runs in 2 games and yet lost one. (And those 2 runs! BB, WP, E on a pickoff attempt, SF was how the damage was done on Friday. The next day, it was a 2-out single, WP, E6. Those are 2 excellent illustrations of how to give away a run to the other team.) But by the end of the weekend, I was just happy the Twins had managed to get through their home opening series without being swept.

Why is this happening to the offense right now? I have a theory. It may be a bit simplistic, but check this out:

Guys who had 60+ PA in Grapefruit League games:

Danny Valencia - .194/.265/.290, HR

Luke Hughes - 1 for 7

Denard Span - .286/.342/.400, HR

Jason Repko - 0 for 2

Jason Kubel - .300/.323/.367

Tsuyoshi Nishioka - .208/.269/.250, SB

Alexi Casilla - .167/.211/.278, SB

Total: .224/.278/.317, 6 2B, 2 HR, 2 SB

That's lousy. Though, in fairness to Repko, what are 2 AB? And to Hughes, that was a loud out in the 8th inning on Friday night. Valencia deserves to have a better line - he's been robbed a few times already. Nishioka was struggling with the MLB strike zone - lots of called 3rd strikes - but when he put the ball in play he was 5 for 16. Casilla should get about 200 more AB before we decide whether he can hit or not. You'd like to see more power from Kubel, but the average is there, and he's come through against some tough LHP. Span is doing fine. They're off to a slow start; as a group, their OPS should be at least .100 points higher.

Guys who had <60 PA in Grapefruit League games:

Matt Tolbert - 1 for 5

Delmon Young - .188/.212/.219

Justin Morneau - .258/.303/.355

Jim Thome - .167/.250/.444, HR

Drew Butera - 1 for 4

Michael Cuddyer - .107/.194/.107

Joe Mauer - .233/.303/.267

Total: .203/.258/.270, 7 2B, HR

Now, at a glance, that may not seem to be too much worse than what the other guys are doing. But, with the exception of 9 decent (for them) AB from Tolbert and Butera, this is the heart of the order. On a day when Thome is the DH, they hit 3-7 in the lineup (or 2-6 now that Nishioka is on the DL). Their combined OPS should be more than .300 points higher. They're struggling to hit line drives. Most of them are having trouble getting the ball out of the IF. They look out of sync at the plate. When several of those guys were being held out of the spring lineups for various injury reasons, we kept hearing that the goal was to get them ready to play on April 1st. It doesn't appear that they accomplished that goal.

They will break out eventually, of course. It may not happen this week - Kansas City is off to a hot start and Tampa Bay has good pitching and defense, too. But the Royals have a terrible lineup, and the Rays are the only team in the league hitting worse than the Twins. There will probably be a bunch more low-scoring games, but the Twins should win a few.