Pending a workable contract extension, Santana is headed to the Mets. In return, the Twins will get CF Carlos Gomez, and pitching prospects Kevin Mulvey, Philip Humber, and Deolis Guerra. These are quality prospects, and at least three of them will probably wind up on the roster. But I don't find this deal too appealing, mostly because it doesn't seem to address the team's needs as well as some of the other scenarios would have.
If you look at the Twins' system, you'll find an ample number of quality pitching prospects: Blackburn, Duensing, Manship, Pino, Robertson, not to mention likely rotation members Baker, Bonser, Liriano, Perkins and Slowey, none of whom have yet started as many as 50 games in the majors. Adding 3 more pitchers to the mix turns a crowded minor league system into a bit of a logjam. As for Gomez, he might be ready to take over in CF, but he's not a whole lot further along than Pridie or Span. So here are 4 quality prospects, but not doing much to fill the holes in the system. I'd rather they'd acquired Mike Pelfrey and Martinez (plus maybe one of the others) and let them keep Gomez. It seems like Pelfrey is ready to join the rotation now, and Martinez could be a star down the road.
Either Red Sox deal would have served the Twins better. Ellsbury is definitely ready to be a factor in CF, Masterson is as good a pitcher as Mulvey or Humber, and Jed Lowrie would have been a candidate for SS after Adam Everett's 1-year deal is up. The even better offer was the one that included Jon Lester (another guy the Twins could have dropped right into the rotation) and Coco Crisp, who could have affordably filled the CF/leadoff spots, while providing more MLB experience than any of the other possiblities.
Even the Yankees' offer of Hughes, Cabrera and ? would have been preferable, as Hughes would have stepped right into the 2 (at least) slot in the rotation, and Cabrera would have been just slightly behind Crisp in experience, but still young and with a bit of upside.
It looks as though the Yanks and Red Sox were pulling back on their offers, so the Twins may have felt that it was the Mets or nothing. I heard a report today that Santana had turned down $100 million for 5 years from the Twins - if that's true, they may have felt it would be impossibly out of their comfort level to sign him.
But there was one other alternative to consider: let him pitch for the team this season, and take the 2 first round picks when he walks. That would have enabled the Twins to get 2 players of Guerra's potential (if not better), plus 20-25 wins from Santana this regular season. If only a couple of these Mets prospects turn out to be contributors for the Twins, even that scenario might look better in hindsight.
Showing posts with label Santana. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Santana. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Friday, January 25, 2008
Sign Fest
As the various legs of the Twins caravan converged on Minneapolis for this weekend's Twins Fest, I had to wonder if the front office would announce some transactions to coincide with the event. After all, the team has been in a holding pattern with Santana for over a month, and the natives are getting restless. Particularly since Mr. Smith so economically filled some of the lineup holes with former Astros, resulting in a budget surplus that would be nearly impossible to use up. This made the claims that the team couldn't afford to sign Santana to a long-term deal especially difficult to swallow. Why should anyone be enthusiastic about the upcoming season with the organization sending so many signals that it isn't serious about competing long term?
The announcement I anticipated arrived Friday afternoon, though in a form that was even better than I expected. The Twins signed two of their arbitration eligible regulars, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer, to multi-year deals. The combined 9 years and $104 million goes a long way toward allaying fans' fears about the direction the team intends to take heading into the new stadium.
Cuddyer's deal pays him $5 million this year, $6.75 million in 2009 and $8.5 million in 2010, with a $2.75 million signing bonus. The team holds a $10.5 million club option for 2011 with a $1 million buyout. Looking around the league, that seems like a pretty fair value for a player of his level of production and experience.
Morneau gets the biggest deal in Twins history in terms of years and dollars: $7.4 million this year, $10.6 million in 2009 and $14 million in each of the final four years, plus a $6 million signing bonus. Though he has yet to put together a complete season of dominance, he's been such a terror when he's on that, should he manage to play up to his ability for all 6 months of the season, this deal could prove to be a bargain. And because his salary doesn't inflate over the last 4 years, his proportion of the payroll will diminish as revenues increase in the new stadium.
The detail of these contracts that I like the most is the signing bonuses. Mr. Smith found a way to entice reasonable long-term deals from two core players by using up $8.75 million of the present surplus. The Santana-included team payroll now stands at around $72 million. The bonuses also give me hope that Mr. Smith will attempt to use that tactic to help coax a long-term deal out of Santana as well.
After all, the dizzying sequence of potential Mets and Yankees packages illustrate the Mr. Smith is negotiating his butt off with those teams. The fact that today's announcement follows a 1-year deal that Morneau signed last week shows that the Twins were willing to keep talking to Justin (and they weren't afraid to commit to him for 6 years). But the Twins haven't made any effort yet to negotiate with Santana. Each side made their opening offers, and that's been that.
The success they Twins have had in their talks with Morneau and Cuddyer over the last week should inspire them to come back to the table with Santana. If their first choice is to retain him, as they still attest, then they need to put in more of an effort to accomplish that goal than they have so far.
The announcement I anticipated arrived Friday afternoon, though in a form that was even better than I expected. The Twins signed two of their arbitration eligible regulars, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer, to multi-year deals. The combined 9 years and $104 million goes a long way toward allaying fans' fears about the direction the team intends to take heading into the new stadium.
Cuddyer's deal pays him $5 million this year, $6.75 million in 2009 and $8.5 million in 2010, with a $2.75 million signing bonus. The team holds a $10.5 million club option for 2011 with a $1 million buyout. Looking around the league, that seems like a pretty fair value for a player of his level of production and experience.
Morneau gets the biggest deal in Twins history in terms of years and dollars: $7.4 million this year, $10.6 million in 2009 and $14 million in each of the final four years, plus a $6 million signing bonus. Though he has yet to put together a complete season of dominance, he's been such a terror when he's on that, should he manage to play up to his ability for all 6 months of the season, this deal could prove to be a bargain. And because his salary doesn't inflate over the last 4 years, his proportion of the payroll will diminish as revenues increase in the new stadium.
The detail of these contracts that I like the most is the signing bonuses. Mr. Smith found a way to entice reasonable long-term deals from two core players by using up $8.75 million of the present surplus. The Santana-included team payroll now stands at around $72 million. The bonuses also give me hope that Mr. Smith will attempt to use that tactic to help coax a long-term deal out of Santana as well.
After all, the dizzying sequence of potential Mets and Yankees packages illustrate the Mr. Smith is negotiating his butt off with those teams. The fact that today's announcement follows a 1-year deal that Morneau signed last week shows that the Twins were willing to keep talking to Justin (and they weren't afraid to commit to him for 6 years). But the Twins haven't made any effort yet to negotiate with Santana. Each side made their opening offers, and that's been that.
The success they Twins have had in their talks with Morneau and Cuddyer over the last week should inspire them to come back to the table with Santana. If their first choice is to retain him, as they still attest, then they need to put in more of an effort to accomplish that goal than they have so far.
Friday, January 18, 2008
Don't Deal
Ever since Torii was signed away by the Angels (for absurdly too much money - good luck LAA), I've felt that, for PR reasons, the Twins had no choice but to either get front-line, MLB-ready players for Santana, or re-sign him. Like most in the blogosphere, I've anxiously looked for the bids to increase. But it's become increasingly clear that the best offers are, at least as far as the off-season is concerned, already on the table.
The only three teams in the running, the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox, are competitive in their current forms. While all could benefit from adding Santana to the rotation, they could also benefit from keeping their MLB-ready youngsters in the fold for the coming years. I don't think it's so much the size of the contract extension that stops them from upping their offers. It's the fact that, if they wait the Twins out, they'll have an opportunity to sign Santana to a mega-contract next season, while still having their Ellsburys/Gomezes/Hugheses contributing to their success this year and beyond. If he were signed for 3+ years, I think they'd up their offers substantially. But, things being as they are, this is probably as good as it gets.
Good enough? Clearly not, or a deal would have happened by now.
Meanwhile, the team has signed a few low-rent veterans, and agreed to 1-year deals with Kubel and Morneau (the organization is apparently in wait-and-see mode with those two, perhaps wondering if either can put together a complete season that reflects their potential). So at this point, there is not only a huge payroll surplus available for 2008, but there is very little money committed for 2009 and beyond. And that means that there is absolutely no short-term financial obstacle to paying Santana $20 million a year for the next couple of years.
Of course, the team has already offered to pay him $93 million over the next 5 seasons. They wouldn't have made that offer if they didn't think they could afford it. They also wouldn't have made it if it was the most they thought they could afford. Nobody who understands markets or negotiation opens with their best offer - what if the player would have accepted less? And no player in a solid bargaining position (as Santana is, considering his worst season so far was still good enough for an ERA a full run below the park-adjusted league average and 5th in Cy Young voting) would accept a team's opening offer - what if they would have paid more?
The Twins can afford to pay more than $93 million over 5 years, and Bill Smith, Santana, and his agent Mr. Greenberg all know it.
So far, the negotiation has progressed like this:
Smith: Hey Johan, you're pretty awesome. We'd like to offer you an extension of $20 million/year for four years.
Santana: Thanks, Bill, that's nice of you. But I'd rather get $20 million/year for 7 years.
Smith: Wow, that's a lot of years Johan! And we have a ton of holes to fill in the lineup, let me see if I can fill them all by trading you...
Many weeks have passed, and the number of holes has been reduced to one: Center field. The Twins have some options in the minors, but none is a slam dunk to start this spring. However, if the Twins trade Santana for a young CF, they will create a different hole that will be much more difficult to fill: #1 starter. Not just on the team. In the whole sport.
Now is when the negotiation should resume:
Smith: Hi again Johan! I know we haven't spoken in a while, but I've been thinking about you a lot! I know you asked for $20 million/year for 7 years. How about 5?
Santana (Using the bargaining skills he learned in the markets of Venezuela): I've never been so insulted in my life! Could you do 6?
Smith: How about 5 and a $6.75 million signing bonus that makes your total salary for 2008 $20 million?
Santana: That would effectively give me a 6-year, $120 million contract. But Zito got $126 million!
Smith: Actually, over the 7 years of Zito's contract (2007-2013), you'd make $133 million. That's a whole million dollars/year more!
Santana: Would that make me the highest paid pitcher ever?
Smith: In terms of total years & dollars, yes!
Santana: Let me sleep on it...
Would he take it? I bet he would. But could the Twins afford it?
Well, if a slightly above-average pitcher like Silva can get $12 million/year now, I wouldn't be surprised if a similar pitcher makes $15-$16 million by 2013. Santana's $20 million wouldn't be outlandishly more than that. And, as revenues increase and the new stadium opens, the payroll the team can sustain should go up accordingly. Meaning that $20 million in 2013 would be less expensive to the Twins than it would be in 2012. Certainly there's a risk that he will decline or get injured, but for a player as special as he is, I think it's worth the risk.
The other important factor to consider is that to trade him now for an underwhelming return would really take the wind out of the team's sails. Part of what made the 2006 season so thrilling was a competitive team that also contained the MVP, batting champ, Cy Young, and almost ROY. Though Hunter is gone, all of those players remain. The marketing department should be able to sell the possibility that the glory of 2006 will return with the new additions Smith has brought in so far. But not without Santana. Not with a payroll that is surpassed by the Royals. Attendance would drop, and the incentive for people to line up seats at the new stadium would diminish. That would cost the Twins a lot of money. Maybe $20 million?
It's been heartening to see others coming around to this line of thinking recently. First it was Buster Olney. Then Howard Sinker, supported by some excellent reasoning from Jim Crikket. And then Dugout Central chimed in.
Hopefully this represents a change in attitude that will also be reflected in the mind of Bill Smith. With Santana at the top of the rotation, improved production from the offense, the bullpen as solid as ever, and a hopefully resilient Fransisco Liriano, the Twins should be able to hold their own in a very tough AL Central.
And, as a fan, that's all I can really ask for.
The only three teams in the running, the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox, are competitive in their current forms. While all could benefit from adding Santana to the rotation, they could also benefit from keeping their MLB-ready youngsters in the fold for the coming years. I don't think it's so much the size of the contract extension that stops them from upping their offers. It's the fact that, if they wait the Twins out, they'll have an opportunity to sign Santana to a mega-contract next season, while still having their Ellsburys/Gomezes/Hugheses contributing to their success this year and beyond. If he were signed for 3+ years, I think they'd up their offers substantially. But, things being as they are, this is probably as good as it gets.
Good enough? Clearly not, or a deal would have happened by now.
Meanwhile, the team has signed a few low-rent veterans, and agreed to 1-year deals with Kubel and Morneau (the organization is apparently in wait-and-see mode with those two, perhaps wondering if either can put together a complete season that reflects their potential). So at this point, there is not only a huge payroll surplus available for 2008, but there is very little money committed for 2009 and beyond. And that means that there is absolutely no short-term financial obstacle to paying Santana $20 million a year for the next couple of years.
Of course, the team has already offered to pay him $93 million over the next 5 seasons. They wouldn't have made that offer if they didn't think they could afford it. They also wouldn't have made it if it was the most they thought they could afford. Nobody who understands markets or negotiation opens with their best offer - what if the player would have accepted less? And no player in a solid bargaining position (as Santana is, considering his worst season so far was still good enough for an ERA a full run below the park-adjusted league average and 5th in Cy Young voting) would accept a team's opening offer - what if they would have paid more?
The Twins can afford to pay more than $93 million over 5 years, and Bill Smith, Santana, and his agent Mr. Greenberg all know it.
So far, the negotiation has progressed like this:
Smith: Hey Johan, you're pretty awesome. We'd like to offer you an extension of $20 million/year for four years.
Santana: Thanks, Bill, that's nice of you. But I'd rather get $20 million/year for 7 years.
Smith: Wow, that's a lot of years Johan! And we have a ton of holes to fill in the lineup, let me see if I can fill them all by trading you...
Many weeks have passed, and the number of holes has been reduced to one: Center field. The Twins have some options in the minors, but none is a slam dunk to start this spring. However, if the Twins trade Santana for a young CF, they will create a different hole that will be much more difficult to fill: #1 starter. Not just on the team. In the whole sport.
Now is when the negotiation should resume:
Smith: Hi again Johan! I know we haven't spoken in a while, but I've been thinking about you a lot! I know you asked for $20 million/year for 7 years. How about 5?
Santana (Using the bargaining skills he learned in the markets of Venezuela): I've never been so insulted in my life! Could you do 6?
Smith: How about 5 and a $6.75 million signing bonus that makes your total salary for 2008 $20 million?
Santana: That would effectively give me a 6-year, $120 million contract. But Zito got $126 million!
Smith: Actually, over the 7 years of Zito's contract (2007-2013), you'd make $133 million. That's a whole million dollars/year more!
Santana: Would that make me the highest paid pitcher ever?
Smith: In terms of total years & dollars, yes!
Santana: Let me sleep on it...
Would he take it? I bet he would. But could the Twins afford it?
Well, if a slightly above-average pitcher like Silva can get $12 million/year now, I wouldn't be surprised if a similar pitcher makes $15-$16 million by 2013. Santana's $20 million wouldn't be outlandishly more than that. And, as revenues increase and the new stadium opens, the payroll the team can sustain should go up accordingly. Meaning that $20 million in 2013 would be less expensive to the Twins than it would be in 2012. Certainly there's a risk that he will decline or get injured, but for a player as special as he is, I think it's worth the risk.
The other important factor to consider is that to trade him now for an underwhelming return would really take the wind out of the team's sails. Part of what made the 2006 season so thrilling was a competitive team that also contained the MVP, batting champ, Cy Young, and almost ROY. Though Hunter is gone, all of those players remain. The marketing department should be able to sell the possibility that the glory of 2006 will return with the new additions Smith has brought in so far. But not without Santana. Not with a payroll that is surpassed by the Royals. Attendance would drop, and the incentive for people to line up seats at the new stadium would diminish. That would cost the Twins a lot of money. Maybe $20 million?
It's been heartening to see others coming around to this line of thinking recently. First it was Buster Olney. Then Howard Sinker, supported by some excellent reasoning from Jim Crikket. And then Dugout Central chimed in.
Hopefully this represents a change in attitude that will also be reflected in the mind of Bill Smith. With Santana at the top of the rotation, improved production from the offense, the bullpen as solid as ever, and a hopefully resilient Fransisco Liriano, the Twins should be able to hold their own in a very tough AL Central.
And, as a fan, that's all I can really ask for.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Plan B
It seems that a lot of folks are disappointed at the offers for Santana at the Winter Meetings. Bill Smith is right to hold out for the package that would bring us 3 quality players for opening day (Ellsbury, Lester, Lowrie or Hughes, Cabrera, Kennedy). Whether it’s the cost in young talent, or the impending extension to clear the no-trade clause, not even the free spenders of the league want to go there.
Meanwhile, the Tigers/Marlins deal has shifted my thinking. The Tigers blew out their payroll a bit, but made a huge splash, created a thoroughly dominant lineup, and will surely reap the benefits in season-ticket sales. The Marlins, having dumped their two most marketable players, may turn a profit in ’08 with their miniscule payroll, but will surely play to an empty stadium every night. I doubt the tax-payers of Miami will be excited about ponying up hundreds of millions of dollars on a stadium for a team nobody watches.
While I don’t recommend that the Twins overstretch their projected 2008 payroll (about $78 million), they would benefit from mimicking some of the Tigers assertiveness this week. Neither should the Twins clean out Santana and Nathan for a series of prospects who won’t begin to make a name for themselves for a few years – the franchise would lose the ticket-office momentum they’ve been building the last couple of years.
In light of those conclusions, I propose bold action:
Spend what we have to spend, but sign Santana.
The 4-year extension we’ve offered him would work out to $18.6 million/year through 2012. He was reportedly asking for $25 million/year through 2013 to waive his no-trade clause. I don’t believe the Twins could reach that, but I also think it’s something his agent threw out there knowing he was dealing with the Red Sox and Yankees, two teams that spend money like it was water. For the Twins, I suspect they’d come down a bit.
Santana is still young enough, and has shown sufficient durability, to be a worthwhile risk in 2013 (when he’ll be 34). So I’d come back to him with a package that pays him $19 million/year for 6 years. From there, I’d hope to meet somewhere in the middle, maybe at 6 years, $126 million (a figure I heard he was looking for prior to the Winter Meetings). That would make him the highest-paid pitcher by more than 10%, and make him the second-highest paid player overall, behind only A-Rod. Nothing to sneeze at. It would be great to have some insurance on the latter years of the deal, in case he gets hurt. Maybe a clause where if he pitches fewer than 150 innings in either 2011 or 2012, the Twins would have the option to buy him out. But if he’s healthy, he gets paid.
Why do this? Is anyone worth that much money?
Well, if anyone is, Santana’s the guy.
But the value of extending Santana goes beyond his performance on the field. It would let the fans know that the Twins are not in rebuilding mode, and are not just a farm team for rich, East-coast clubs. It lets everyone know who they can expect to see on opening day in the new stadium. And, it shows that the Twins are at least willing to out-spend the Royals.
Can the Twins succeed long-term with so much of the payroll tied up in one player?
Certainly. With Hunter in Anaheim, there is ample space to pay Santana extra in 2008. The 2009 payroll, if it follows the recent pattern, will increase to about $84 million. $21 million for Santana would represent 25% of the total – unprecedented, right? Well…
In 2004, Radke’s salary represented almost 23% of the payroll (on a playoff team), so that’s the benchmark so far. Surely, Santana is even more valuable to us than Radke was! My goal would be to keep Santana’s proportion as close to that as possible in each year of the deal (estimated payrolls are hopefully on the conservative side – new ballpark!):
2008: $13.25 million (17% of $78 million)
2009: $20 million (23.8% of $84 million)
2010: $21.25 million (22.1% of $96 million)
2011: $22.5 million (22% of $102 million)
2012: $24 million (21.8% of $110 million)
2013: $25 million (20.8% of $120 million)
Total: $126 million (21.5% of $590 million)
The year in which things get stretched is 2009, but the Twins can probably absorb that. Look at the combined salaries of the Twins’ 6 highest paid players each year since 2002, and the proportion of that total to the overall payroll (numbers from baseball-almanac.com):
2002: (Radke, Reed, Milton, Hawkins, Hunter, Mays) $26.25 million = 65%
2003: (Radke, Reed, Stewart, Milton, Hunter, Mays) $37.85 million = 61%
2004: (Radke, Hunter, Stewart, Koskie, Jones, Guzman) $31.33 million = 67%
2005: (Radke, Hunter, Mays, Stewart, Jones, Santana) $40 million = 71%
2006: (Hunter, Radke, Santana, Stewart, Castillo, Lohse) $44.5 million = 70%
2007: (Santana, Hunter, Castillo, Nathan, Morneau, Silva) $45 million = 63%
6-year total: $224.93 = 66%
As you can see, it’s quite common for 63-70% of the total payroll to wind up in the wallets of just the top 6 guys. Only one losing season in those 6 years, and not by much. Clearly, a successful model, so why not keep it up? If we set aside 66% of payroll for the top 6 for the next six years, they would get:
2008: $52 million
2009: $56 million
2010: $64 million
2011: $68 million
2012: $72 million
2013: $80 million
It’s not feasible to project who these players might be 5-6 years from now (in 2002, could anyone have guessed that Luis Castillo, Joe Nathan and Carlos Silva would be among that group in 2007?). But let’s project possibilities for the next three years:
2008
Santana ($13.25 million)
Mauer ($6.25 million)
Nathan ($6 million)
Cuddyer (about $6 million)
Morneau (about $7 million)
Nick Punto(!) ($2.4 million)
Total ($41-ish million)
2009
Santana ($20 million)
Mauer ($10.5 million)
Morneau (about $10 million)
Cuddyer (about $8 million)
Kubel (about $3 million)
Liriano (about $3 million)
Total ($55-ish million)
2010
Santana ($21.25 million)
Mauer ($12.5 million)
Morneau (about $13 million)
Cuddyer (about $9 million)
Liriano (about $6 million)
Kubel (about $5 million)
Total ($67-ish million)
I'm projecting 4 years/$33 million for Cuddyer. Morneau's numbers are similar to David Wright. Hopefully the salary estimates are a little high, and the payroll guesses are a little low.
There's no reason the Twins can't keep 3-4 big stars around at approximately market value while capably filling out the remainder of the roster with $30 million. That's where the small-market moxy will continue to pay off. Eventually, many productive players will have to move on - Silva, Nathan, eventually Cuddyer and Kubel will follow in the footsteps of Koskie, Guardado, Jones. They'll be replaced by younger players who can produce about as well for a fraction of the cost. But as long as the team retains the couple of players the fans consider to be truly exceptional, the tickets will continue to sell, and the Twins will have an opportunity to succeed.
Next: How to fill the roster holes without trading Santana.
Meanwhile, the Tigers/Marlins deal has shifted my thinking. The Tigers blew out their payroll a bit, but made a huge splash, created a thoroughly dominant lineup, and will surely reap the benefits in season-ticket sales. The Marlins, having dumped their two most marketable players, may turn a profit in ’08 with their miniscule payroll, but will surely play to an empty stadium every night. I doubt the tax-payers of Miami will be excited about ponying up hundreds of millions of dollars on a stadium for a team nobody watches.
While I don’t recommend that the Twins overstretch their projected 2008 payroll (about $78 million), they would benefit from mimicking some of the Tigers assertiveness this week. Neither should the Twins clean out Santana and Nathan for a series of prospects who won’t begin to make a name for themselves for a few years – the franchise would lose the ticket-office momentum they’ve been building the last couple of years.
In light of those conclusions, I propose bold action:
Spend what we have to spend, but sign Santana.
The 4-year extension we’ve offered him would work out to $18.6 million/year through 2012. He was reportedly asking for $25 million/year through 2013 to waive his no-trade clause. I don’t believe the Twins could reach that, but I also think it’s something his agent threw out there knowing he was dealing with the Red Sox and Yankees, two teams that spend money like it was water. For the Twins, I suspect they’d come down a bit.
Santana is still young enough, and has shown sufficient durability, to be a worthwhile risk in 2013 (when he’ll be 34). So I’d come back to him with a package that pays him $19 million/year for 6 years. From there, I’d hope to meet somewhere in the middle, maybe at 6 years, $126 million (a figure I heard he was looking for prior to the Winter Meetings). That would make him the highest-paid pitcher by more than 10%, and make him the second-highest paid player overall, behind only A-Rod. Nothing to sneeze at. It would be great to have some insurance on the latter years of the deal, in case he gets hurt. Maybe a clause where if he pitches fewer than 150 innings in either 2011 or 2012, the Twins would have the option to buy him out. But if he’s healthy, he gets paid.
Why do this? Is anyone worth that much money?
Well, if anyone is, Santana’s the guy.
But the value of extending Santana goes beyond his performance on the field. It would let the fans know that the Twins are not in rebuilding mode, and are not just a farm team for rich, East-coast clubs. It lets everyone know who they can expect to see on opening day in the new stadium. And, it shows that the Twins are at least willing to out-spend the Royals.
Can the Twins succeed long-term with so much of the payroll tied up in one player?
Certainly. With Hunter in Anaheim, there is ample space to pay Santana extra in 2008. The 2009 payroll, if it follows the recent pattern, will increase to about $84 million. $21 million for Santana would represent 25% of the total – unprecedented, right? Well…
In 2004, Radke’s salary represented almost 23% of the payroll (on a playoff team), so that’s the benchmark so far. Surely, Santana is even more valuable to us than Radke was! My goal would be to keep Santana’s proportion as close to that as possible in each year of the deal (estimated payrolls are hopefully on the conservative side – new ballpark!):
2008: $13.25 million (17% of $78 million)
2009: $20 million (23.8% of $84 million)
2010: $21.25 million (22.1% of $96 million)
2011: $22.5 million (22% of $102 million)
2012: $24 million (21.8% of $110 million)
2013: $25 million (20.8% of $120 million)
Total: $126 million (21.5% of $590 million)
The year in which things get stretched is 2009, but the Twins can probably absorb that. Look at the combined salaries of the Twins’ 6 highest paid players each year since 2002, and the proportion of that total to the overall payroll (numbers from baseball-almanac.com):
2002: (Radke, Reed, Milton, Hawkins, Hunter, Mays) $26.25 million = 65%
2003: (Radke, Reed, Stewart, Milton, Hunter, Mays) $37.85 million = 61%
2004: (Radke, Hunter, Stewart, Koskie, Jones, Guzman) $31.33 million = 67%
2005: (Radke, Hunter, Mays, Stewart, Jones, Santana) $40 million = 71%
2006: (Hunter, Radke, Santana, Stewart, Castillo, Lohse) $44.5 million = 70%
2007: (Santana, Hunter, Castillo, Nathan, Morneau, Silva) $45 million = 63%
6-year total: $224.93 = 66%
As you can see, it’s quite common for 63-70% of the total payroll to wind up in the wallets of just the top 6 guys. Only one losing season in those 6 years, and not by much. Clearly, a successful model, so why not keep it up? If we set aside 66% of payroll for the top 6 for the next six years, they would get:
2008: $52 million
2009: $56 million
2010: $64 million
2011: $68 million
2012: $72 million
2013: $80 million
It’s not feasible to project who these players might be 5-6 years from now (in 2002, could anyone have guessed that Luis Castillo, Joe Nathan and Carlos Silva would be among that group in 2007?). But let’s project possibilities for the next three years:
2008
Santana ($13.25 million)
Mauer ($6.25 million)
Nathan ($6 million)
Cuddyer (about $6 million)
Morneau (about $7 million)
Nick Punto(!) ($2.4 million)
Total ($41-ish million)
2009
Santana ($20 million)
Mauer ($10.5 million)
Morneau (about $10 million)
Cuddyer (about $8 million)
Kubel (about $3 million)
Liriano (about $3 million)
Total ($55-ish million)
2010
Santana ($21.25 million)
Mauer ($12.5 million)
Morneau (about $13 million)
Cuddyer (about $9 million)
Liriano (about $6 million)
Kubel (about $5 million)
Total ($67-ish million)
I'm projecting 4 years/$33 million for Cuddyer. Morneau's numbers are similar to David Wright. Hopefully the salary estimates are a little high, and the payroll guesses are a little low.
There's no reason the Twins can't keep 3-4 big stars around at approximately market value while capably filling out the remainder of the roster with $30 million. That's where the small-market moxy will continue to pay off. Eventually, many productive players will have to move on - Silva, Nathan, eventually Cuddyer and Kubel will follow in the footsteps of Koskie, Guardado, Jones. They'll be replaced by younger players who can produce about as well for a fraction of the cost. But as long as the team retains the couple of players the fans consider to be truly exceptional, the tickets will continue to sell, and the Twins will have an opportunity to succeed.
Next: How to fill the roster holes without trading Santana.
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