Last year's opening day roster included Livan Hernandez, Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, Craig Monroe, Juan Rincon and Brian Bass. Needless to say, the Twins won't be finishing the season with the same 25 guys I reviewed earlier this week. Here are some other names that might find their way into the box scores at some point in 2009:
IF - Matt Tolbert
I'm sure it broke Gardy's heart to have to cut Tolbert, so he'll certainly be the first guy called up if anything happens to an infielder. A switch-hitter with pretty good speed, Tolbert can play any of the IF positions (although his stint at 1B this week wasn't inspiring, while Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris both did OK over there) and could even be used in the OF in a pinch. He's hit pretty well at every level but AA (even in his rehab assignment last year he didn't do well there) and has generally been a high-percentage base stealer. Pretty similar to Nick Punto or Denny Hocking: the ideal guy to have on your bench (when you have a big enough bench).
IF - Luke Hughes
Next on the IF depth chart would probably be Hughes. Other than a lousy time at A+ Fort Myers, he's been a pretty good hitter, and last year he absolutely exploded in a season split between New Britain and Rochester. He's never been much of a fielder, unfortunately, but at this stage he doesn't look any worse than Buscher, who has worked to improve his glove since arriving with the Twins. Hughes is still young enough at 24 to have some upside. He'll be a September call-up if the team doesn't need him before that.
OF - Jason Pridie
The last piece of the Delmon Young trade, Pridie was brought in to compete for the CF job vacated by Torii Hunter. This was before the Twins had acquired Carlos Gomez or realized that Denard Span had figured out how to hit. Pridie quickly fell by the wayside, staying the whole year at Rochester and putting up a .270/.305/.435 line with a Gomez-esque 152/30 K/BB ratio. Still, he has terrific range in the OF and is a pretty high percentage base-stealer, so he wouldn't be a bad guy to have on the bench as a defensive sub or PR. With over 200 AAA games under his belt already, he'll likely be the first guy they call if one of the outfielders goes down.
SP - Kevin Mulvey
With Philip Humber, Brian Duensing and R.A. Dickey all capable of providing the Twins with spot starts, it will probably be a couple of months before Mulvey is considered to fill in for one of the Twins' starters. He had mixed results for the Red Wings last season, increasing his K/9 rate but also elevating his BB/9 and HR/9. He was better in the second half, and, at 23 years old, there's still plenty of time for him to figure things out. I'm guessing that his performance will get people talking about him as the summer rolls along, and that he may put the Twins in position to make an interesting trade at the end of July.
RP - Jose Mijares
After the way Mijares pitched for the Twins last September, a bullpen spot was his to lose this spring. And lose it he did, showing up for camp out of shape and struggling through just about every appearance he made. He's been a tremendous strikeout pitcher throughout his career, allowing well under a hit per IP. His problem has been control - he's amassed an ugly 5.1 BB/9 over his pro career so far. If he can lose some weight and focus on throwing more strikes, I think he'll find his way back to the Majors before too much time goes by.
C - Joe Mauer
Oh yeah, don't forget about this guy. I'm sure his rehab will progress agonizingly slowly, but it sounds like he should be able to rejoin the team by the end of April. And this year, because of the extra week of spring training, April only has 22 games in it. As long as he can stick around and perform the way he did last year, I'll be satisfied with 140 or so games from the reigning batting champ.
Showing posts with label Rochester Red Wings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rochester Red Wings. Show all posts
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Minor League All-Stars
Other guys, notably Aaron Gleeman and Josh's Thoughts, are doing an admirable job of ranking Twins prospects. I'm enjoying learning about some of the guys in the Twins' system via these brief write-ups. Since they've got the rankings covered, I want to do something a little different with the minor leaguers. I looked over the numbers from last season in order to try and put together a complete team of All-Stars from the 4 full-season teams. I leave out the Rookie ball teams because the dominance some players show there could just be the result of small sample size. The lack of extensive numbers leaves me too dependent upon the scouts, who may not be looking for the same things I am. So I'll just pick from guys who played at Beloit, Fort Myers, New Britain and Rochester in 2008.
My hope was that the Twins' system would yield at least one compelling standout at each position, a few reserves, plus a 5-man rotation and a 6-man bullpen. That would show that there is at least someone on the way at every potential slot the Twins could need. As you'll see, reality came up a bit short, so some of these picks are, admittedly, a stretch to call All-Stars. But they're the best the Twins have right now.
When looking at the minor league statistics, it's important to remember the context. These leagues are more pitcher-friendly than the AL, so numbers that look outstanding for a pitcher may be just average, and numbers that look middling for a hitter may be quite good. Here are the averages for each league in 2008:
Midwest (Beloit): .252/.322/.371; 3.68 ERA
Florida State (Fort Myers): 256/.329/.376; 3.81 ERA
Eastern (New Britain): .264/.338/.403; 4.22 ERA
International (Rochester): .263/.331/.404; 4.10 ERA
American League (Twins): .267/.335/.420; 4.35 ERA
With those in mind, here are my picks:
Starting Lineup
Catcher: Wilson Ramos
.288/.346/.434, 462 AB, 13 HR, 37 BB, 103 K at A+ Fort Myers
The only catcher in the system with significant playing time who was able to outperform his league's averages at the plate. Interestingly, he's posted essentially the same line at each stop in the system so far (.286/.339/.435 in Rookie ball, .291/.345/.438 at A-). That gets less impressive the further he goes, so I hope he'll be able to improve upon it soon. He also threw out 43% of base stealers.
First Base: Chris Parmelee
.239/.385/.496, 226 AB, 14 HR, 52 BB, 83 K at A- Beloit
Though his batting average remained at .239 and he continued to strike out at a vigorous rate, Parmelee drastically improved in his second year at Beloit. He nearly matched his 2007 HR total in about half the AB, and was able to exceed his walk total in just over half the games before his season was cut short by injury. If he sustains that kind of OBP and power, he'll be in Adam Dunn territory.
Second Base: Steve Tolleson
.300/.382/.466, 343 AB, 9 HR, 44 BB, 74 K for AA New Britain
Always a high OBP hitter, Tolleson put up full-season career highs in BA and SLG% this season, then backed it up with a terrific performance in the Arizona Fall League.
Shortstop: Trevor Plouffe
.269/.325/.410, 227 AB, 3 HR, 16 BB, 43 K for AA New Britain
.256/.292/.420, 250 AB, 6 HR, 14 BB, 47 K for AAA Rochester
Here's our first disappointment. Plouffe's almost league average performance was actually by far the best among regular SS in the system. He's only 22, so he can get comfortable in Rochester for awhile.
Third Base: Danny Valencia
.336/.402/.518, 220 AB, 5 HR, 27 BB, 43 K for A+ Fort Myers
.289/.334/.485, 266 AB, 10 HR, 18 BB, 70 K for AA New Britain
Valencia demolished A+ pitching for the first half of the season, then finished up strongly above average in the Eastern League. His poor showing in the AFL probably keeps him in New Britain to start the season, but he still looks to be on track for a 2010 arrival in the Majors. (He's the reason the Twins wouldn't go to 3 years for Casey Blake.)
Left Field: Edward Ovalle
.284/.351/.412, 447 AB, 7 HR, 34 BB, 112 K for A+ Fort Myers
Like Plouffe, Ovalle sort of gets this spot by default. He certainly improved his hitting line in his second season in Fort Myers, but his K/BB ratio showed no signs of progress. I'm sure he'll start 2009 in New Britain, but he may not get much further than that.
Center Field: Ben Revere
.379/.433/.497, 340 AB, 1 HR, 27 BB, 31 K for A- Beloit
This was the most spectacular performance of any of the position players on this list. Revere exceeded the Midwest League average OPS by well over .200 points and went 44/57 stealing bases in just 83 games. He only had a .943 fielding percentage, though. Something to work on in Fort Myers this year.
Right Field: David Winfree
.252/.319/.450, 453 AB, 19 HR, 41 BB, 87 K for AA New Britain
One of the 3B prospects who's had to move to the outfield, Winfree was asked to repeat AA after his 2007 performance was merely average. His OPS improvement wasn't huge (thanks to a big drop in BABIP), but he significantly improved his K/BB rate while showing much greater power. At 23, that keeps him on the prospect radar as he moves to Rochester for 2009.
Designated Hitter: Randy Ruiz
.320/.366/.526, 416 AB, 17 HR, 23 BB, 116 K for AAA Rochester
The journeyman minor-leaguer won the International League batting title and finished the season with the Twins. But those accomplishments weren't enough to overcome a dismal K/BB ratio and no defensive value, so the Twins let him go earlier this winter.
Reserves
Outfield: Dustin Martin
.290/.355/.447, 510 AB, 10 HR, 49 BB, 125 K for AA New Britain
The Rock Cats' CF has been above average by a healthy margin at every stop throughout his progression, including a solid showing in the AFL last fall.
Outfield: Darnell McDonald
.268/.334/.447, 369 AB, 11 HR, 36 BB, 81 K for AAA Rochester
Not a prospect, but McDonald outperformed all the other full-season OF in the Twins' system. Now with the Reds, he should have a chance to earn a spot on their bench this spring.
Infield: Steven Singleton
.302/.348/.421, 235 AB, 6 HR, 13 BB, 29 K for A- Beloit
.295/.371/.452, 241 AB, 5 HR, 26 BB, 24 K for A+ Fort Myers
Tough call whether to start him or Tolleson. Despite having a similarly excellent season, Singleton is less of a running threat, and wasn't as sure a fielder as Tolleson this year. But he's certainly ready to take over 2B for the Rock Cats in 2009.
Infield: Luke Hughes
.319/.385/.551, 285 AB, 15 HR, 28 BB, 70 K for AA New Britain
.283/.325/.453, 106 AB, 3 HR, 7 BB, 30 K for AAA Rochester
Hughes enjoyed a breakout season in 2008, clobbering Eastern League pitching and more than holding his own at AAA. Yet another reason why the Twins didn't need to splurge on Casey Blake or Ty Wigginton, Hughes should be available to them sometime this summer.
Catcher: Jose Morales
.315/.348/.426, 197 AB, 4 HR, 8 BB, 28 K for AAA Rochester
Morales didn't get to play very long before he re-injured his ankle. But in the time he had, he showed that he's clearly the best-hitting catcher in the system after Ramos. As a high-contact switch-hitter, I'd like to see him get some consideration for a bench spot with the Twins out of spring training - assuming the ankle is OK.
Starting Pitchers
Mike McCardell
2.86 ERA, 135.1 IP, 110 H, 25 BB, 139 K for A- Beloit
A WHIP of about 1.00 and about a strikeout per inning - that's what we want to see!
Francisco Liriano
3.28 ERA, 118 IP, 102 H, 31 BB, 113 K for AAA Rochester
Other than a couple of early-season starts around his woeful April stint with the Twins, Liriano was consistently dominant at AAA. And that was without regaining his pre-Tommy John velocity. If only he'd replaced Livan sooner...
Cole Devries
2.93 ERA, 135.1 IP, 138 H, 38 BB, 105 K for A+ Fort Myers
His 2008 numbers were very similar to those of 2007, with one striking difference: he cut his HR rate by about half.
Jeff Manship
2.86 ERA, 78.2 IP, 68 H, 20 BB, 63 K for A+ Fort Myers
4.46 ERA, 76.2 IP, 90 H, 24 BB, 62 K for AA New Britain
After allowing 0 HR in the first half, Manship gave up 8 once he moved to New Britain. The K/BB rate remained the same between the two levels. His AFL experience was actually encouraging, despite a 5.01 ERA, because he was able to strike out almost a batter per inning and allowed only 1 HR in 32.1 IP in an explosive offensive environment.
Santos Arias
3.27 ERA, 110 IP, 106 H, 29 BB, 91 K for A- Beloit
Arias is another pitcher who maintained his K/BB rate from 2007 while cutting his HR rate by about half. He was moved to the bullpen towards the end of the season, so we'll see whether or not his future is in that role.
Bullpen
Anthony Slama
1.01 ERA, 71 IP, 43 H, 24 BB, 110 K for A+ Fort Myers
The first of the Twins' ludicrously good relievers from 2008, Slama's excellent WHIP and K/BB ratio go with an astounding 0 HR allowed in 71 IP. In fact, he has yet to allow a HR in 102.2 professional innings. Could we put him on the fast track, please? I can think of an MLB team that might need some bullpen help this year...
Rob Delaney
1.42 ERA, 31.2 IP, 24 H, 4 BB, 34 K for A+ Fort Myers
1.05 ERA, 34.1 IP, 20 H, 7 BB, 38 K for AA New Britain
Next is Delaney, who also had a good WHIP and had an amazing K/BB ratio, but allowed 3 HR over the course of the season. He should start 2009 no lower than Rochester, where the Twins can reach him easily if needed.
Jose Mijares
2.45 ERA, 11 IP, 10 H, 1 BB, 16 K for Rookie GCL Twins
2.61 ERA, 10.1 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 8 K for A+ Fort Myers
2.93 ERA, 15.1 IP, 16 H, 7 BB, 17 K for AA New Britain
Recovering from a winter car accident that left him with a broken elbow, Mijares didn't get back on the field until the summer. He was solid at every level, earning a September call up with the Twins in which he (too late!) became an effective setup man for Joe Nathan. He added some innings with more of the same in the Venezuelan winter league. Though he has hardly any experience above AA, he'll have every opportunity to break camp with the Twins.
Matthew Williams
2.09 ERA, 38.2 IP, 29 H, 12 BB, 42 K for A- Beloit
3.35 ERA, 45.2 IP, 44 H, 16 BB, 37 K for A+ Fort Myers
Awesome at Beloit, Williams advanced to Fort Myers in June, where he was shelled in his first few appearances. He got it together quickly, though, and finished the season with a 1.01 ERA, 21/6 K/BB ratio and 0 HR allowed over his final 10 appearances (26.2 IP).
Bobby Korecky
2.91 ERA, 74.1 IP, 66 H, 22 BB, 71 K for AAA Rochester
Appearing for his second full season as closer for the Red Wings, Korecky was excellent, striking out nearly a batter per inning while allowing just 3 HR in his 74.1 IP. He should get a serious look from the Twins in spring training.
Charles Nolte
2.05 ERA, 70.1 IP, 63 H, 35 BB, 75 K for A- Beloit
Ricky Barrett's numbers were pretty similar for the Red Wings, but Nolte had a slight edge in K/BB ratio and gets a ton of extra credit for allowing only 1 HR in 44 appearances.
This exercise illustrated a lot about the upper levels of the Twins' system. Very few pitchers in the system performed well in 2008, and only a handful were true standouts. There is precious little depth at catcher, shortstop, first base and the corner outfield positions. Luckily, all of those positions are filled at the Major League level with young players who should be around for a few years. That will give the organization some time to add/develop more depth in these areas. The beginnings of that could be seen in the 2008 draft class - but they won't appear on this list until next year.
My hope was that the Twins' system would yield at least one compelling standout at each position, a few reserves, plus a 5-man rotation and a 6-man bullpen. That would show that there is at least someone on the way at every potential slot the Twins could need. As you'll see, reality came up a bit short, so some of these picks are, admittedly, a stretch to call All-Stars. But they're the best the Twins have right now.
When looking at the minor league statistics, it's important to remember the context. These leagues are more pitcher-friendly than the AL, so numbers that look outstanding for a pitcher may be just average, and numbers that look middling for a hitter may be quite good. Here are the averages for each league in 2008:
Midwest (Beloit): .252/.322/.371; 3.68 ERA
Florida State (Fort Myers): 256/.329/.376; 3.81 ERA
Eastern (New Britain): .264/.338/.403; 4.22 ERA
International (Rochester): .263/.331/.404; 4.10 ERA
American League (Twins): .267/.335/.420; 4.35 ERA
With those in mind, here are my picks:
Starting Lineup
Catcher: Wilson Ramos
.288/.346/.434, 462 AB, 13 HR, 37 BB, 103 K at A+ Fort Myers
The only catcher in the system with significant playing time who was able to outperform his league's averages at the plate. Interestingly, he's posted essentially the same line at each stop in the system so far (.286/.339/.435 in Rookie ball, .291/.345/.438 at A-). That gets less impressive the further he goes, so I hope he'll be able to improve upon it soon. He also threw out 43% of base stealers.
First Base: Chris Parmelee
.239/.385/.496, 226 AB, 14 HR, 52 BB, 83 K at A- Beloit
Though his batting average remained at .239 and he continued to strike out at a vigorous rate, Parmelee drastically improved in his second year at Beloit. He nearly matched his 2007 HR total in about half the AB, and was able to exceed his walk total in just over half the games before his season was cut short by injury. If he sustains that kind of OBP and power, he'll be in Adam Dunn territory.
Second Base: Steve Tolleson
.300/.382/.466, 343 AB, 9 HR, 44 BB, 74 K for AA New Britain
Always a high OBP hitter, Tolleson put up full-season career highs in BA and SLG% this season, then backed it up with a terrific performance in the Arizona Fall League.
Shortstop: Trevor Plouffe
.269/.325/.410, 227 AB, 3 HR, 16 BB, 43 K for AA New Britain
.256/.292/.420, 250 AB, 6 HR, 14 BB, 47 K for AAA Rochester
Here's our first disappointment. Plouffe's almost league average performance was actually by far the best among regular SS in the system. He's only 22, so he can get comfortable in Rochester for awhile.
Third Base: Danny Valencia
.336/.402/.518, 220 AB, 5 HR, 27 BB, 43 K for A+ Fort Myers
.289/.334/.485, 266 AB, 10 HR, 18 BB, 70 K for AA New Britain
Valencia demolished A+ pitching for the first half of the season, then finished up strongly above average in the Eastern League. His poor showing in the AFL probably keeps him in New Britain to start the season, but he still looks to be on track for a 2010 arrival in the Majors. (He's the reason the Twins wouldn't go to 3 years for Casey Blake.)
Left Field: Edward Ovalle
.284/.351/.412, 447 AB, 7 HR, 34 BB, 112 K for A+ Fort Myers
Like Plouffe, Ovalle sort of gets this spot by default. He certainly improved his hitting line in his second season in Fort Myers, but his K/BB ratio showed no signs of progress. I'm sure he'll start 2009 in New Britain, but he may not get much further than that.
Center Field: Ben Revere
.379/.433/.497, 340 AB, 1 HR, 27 BB, 31 K for A- Beloit
This was the most spectacular performance of any of the position players on this list. Revere exceeded the Midwest League average OPS by well over .200 points and went 44/57 stealing bases in just 83 games. He only had a .943 fielding percentage, though. Something to work on in Fort Myers this year.
Right Field: David Winfree
.252/.319/.450, 453 AB, 19 HR, 41 BB, 87 K for AA New Britain
One of the 3B prospects who's had to move to the outfield, Winfree was asked to repeat AA after his 2007 performance was merely average. His OPS improvement wasn't huge (thanks to a big drop in BABIP), but he significantly improved his K/BB rate while showing much greater power. At 23, that keeps him on the prospect radar as he moves to Rochester for 2009.
Designated Hitter: Randy Ruiz
.320/.366/.526, 416 AB, 17 HR, 23 BB, 116 K for AAA Rochester
The journeyman minor-leaguer won the International League batting title and finished the season with the Twins. But those accomplishments weren't enough to overcome a dismal K/BB ratio and no defensive value, so the Twins let him go earlier this winter.
Reserves
Outfield: Dustin Martin
.290/.355/.447, 510 AB, 10 HR, 49 BB, 125 K for AA New Britain
The Rock Cats' CF has been above average by a healthy margin at every stop throughout his progression, including a solid showing in the AFL last fall.
Outfield: Darnell McDonald
.268/.334/.447, 369 AB, 11 HR, 36 BB, 81 K for AAA Rochester
Not a prospect, but McDonald outperformed all the other full-season OF in the Twins' system. Now with the Reds, he should have a chance to earn a spot on their bench this spring.
Infield: Steven Singleton
.302/.348/.421, 235 AB, 6 HR, 13 BB, 29 K for A- Beloit
.295/.371/.452, 241 AB, 5 HR, 26 BB, 24 K for A+ Fort Myers
Tough call whether to start him or Tolleson. Despite having a similarly excellent season, Singleton is less of a running threat, and wasn't as sure a fielder as Tolleson this year. But he's certainly ready to take over 2B for the Rock Cats in 2009.
Infield: Luke Hughes
.319/.385/.551, 285 AB, 15 HR, 28 BB, 70 K for AA New Britain
.283/.325/.453, 106 AB, 3 HR, 7 BB, 30 K for AAA Rochester
Hughes enjoyed a breakout season in 2008, clobbering Eastern League pitching and more than holding his own at AAA. Yet another reason why the Twins didn't need to splurge on Casey Blake or Ty Wigginton, Hughes should be available to them sometime this summer.
Catcher: Jose Morales
.315/.348/.426, 197 AB, 4 HR, 8 BB, 28 K for AAA Rochester
Morales didn't get to play very long before he re-injured his ankle. But in the time he had, he showed that he's clearly the best-hitting catcher in the system after Ramos. As a high-contact switch-hitter, I'd like to see him get some consideration for a bench spot with the Twins out of spring training - assuming the ankle is OK.
Starting Pitchers
Mike McCardell
2.86 ERA, 135.1 IP, 110 H, 25 BB, 139 K for A- Beloit
A WHIP of about 1.00 and about a strikeout per inning - that's what we want to see!
Francisco Liriano
3.28 ERA, 118 IP, 102 H, 31 BB, 113 K for AAA Rochester
Other than a couple of early-season starts around his woeful April stint with the Twins, Liriano was consistently dominant at AAA. And that was without regaining his pre-Tommy John velocity. If only he'd replaced Livan sooner...
Cole Devries
2.93 ERA, 135.1 IP, 138 H, 38 BB, 105 K for A+ Fort Myers
His 2008 numbers were very similar to those of 2007, with one striking difference: he cut his HR rate by about half.
Jeff Manship
2.86 ERA, 78.2 IP, 68 H, 20 BB, 63 K for A+ Fort Myers
4.46 ERA, 76.2 IP, 90 H, 24 BB, 62 K for AA New Britain
After allowing 0 HR in the first half, Manship gave up 8 once he moved to New Britain. The K/BB rate remained the same between the two levels. His AFL experience was actually encouraging, despite a 5.01 ERA, because he was able to strike out almost a batter per inning and allowed only 1 HR in 32.1 IP in an explosive offensive environment.
Santos Arias
3.27 ERA, 110 IP, 106 H, 29 BB, 91 K for A- Beloit
Arias is another pitcher who maintained his K/BB rate from 2007 while cutting his HR rate by about half. He was moved to the bullpen towards the end of the season, so we'll see whether or not his future is in that role.
Bullpen
Anthony Slama
1.01 ERA, 71 IP, 43 H, 24 BB, 110 K for A+ Fort Myers
The first of the Twins' ludicrously good relievers from 2008, Slama's excellent WHIP and K/BB ratio go with an astounding 0 HR allowed in 71 IP. In fact, he has yet to allow a HR in 102.2 professional innings. Could we put him on the fast track, please? I can think of an MLB team that might need some bullpen help this year...
Rob Delaney
1.42 ERA, 31.2 IP, 24 H, 4 BB, 34 K for A+ Fort Myers
1.05 ERA, 34.1 IP, 20 H, 7 BB, 38 K for AA New Britain
Next is Delaney, who also had a good WHIP and had an amazing K/BB ratio, but allowed 3 HR over the course of the season. He should start 2009 no lower than Rochester, where the Twins can reach him easily if needed.
Jose Mijares
2.45 ERA, 11 IP, 10 H, 1 BB, 16 K for Rookie GCL Twins
2.61 ERA, 10.1 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 8 K for A+ Fort Myers
2.93 ERA, 15.1 IP, 16 H, 7 BB, 17 K for AA New Britain
Recovering from a winter car accident that left him with a broken elbow, Mijares didn't get back on the field until the summer. He was solid at every level, earning a September call up with the Twins in which he (too late!) became an effective setup man for Joe Nathan. He added some innings with more of the same in the Venezuelan winter league. Though he has hardly any experience above AA, he'll have every opportunity to break camp with the Twins.
Matthew Williams
2.09 ERA, 38.2 IP, 29 H, 12 BB, 42 K for A- Beloit
3.35 ERA, 45.2 IP, 44 H, 16 BB, 37 K for A+ Fort Myers
Awesome at Beloit, Williams advanced to Fort Myers in June, where he was shelled in his first few appearances. He got it together quickly, though, and finished the season with a 1.01 ERA, 21/6 K/BB ratio and 0 HR allowed over his final 10 appearances (26.2 IP).
Bobby Korecky
2.91 ERA, 74.1 IP, 66 H, 22 BB, 71 K for AAA Rochester
Appearing for his second full season as closer for the Red Wings, Korecky was excellent, striking out nearly a batter per inning while allowing just 3 HR in his 74.1 IP. He should get a serious look from the Twins in spring training.
Charles Nolte
2.05 ERA, 70.1 IP, 63 H, 35 BB, 75 K for A- Beloit
Ricky Barrett's numbers were pretty similar for the Red Wings, but Nolte had a slight edge in K/BB ratio and gets a ton of extra credit for allowing only 1 HR in 44 appearances.
This exercise illustrated a lot about the upper levels of the Twins' system. Very few pitchers in the system performed well in 2008, and only a handful were true standouts. There is precious little depth at catcher, shortstop, first base and the corner outfield positions. Luckily, all of those positions are filled at the Major League level with young players who should be around for a few years. That will give the organization some time to add/develop more depth in these areas. The beginnings of that could be seen in the 2008 draft class - but they won't appear on this list until next year.
Friday, February 15, 2008
2008 Twins Pre-Pre-Season: Waiting in the 'Wings
While I've been constructing the Twins' 25-man roster based on the players headed to spring training next week, I've had to leave a few notable names behind. Here a few of the guys who should start the season in Rochester, but could make some contribution to the Twins before the end of the season.
CF - Carlos Gomez
Arguably the most promising Mets prospect to come over in the Santana trade, Gomez was pushed very quickly through the Minors before making his MLB debut last summer. He lost a couple of months to a broken hammet bone in his left hand. That shortened season leaves him with only about 300 career plate appearances above AA. He got off to a nice start in 2007 at AAA New Orleans, batting .286/.363/.414 in 36 games. I'd like to see if he can build on that for the first 2-3 months of 2008 at Rochester. This has the added benefit of holding down his MLB service time, ensuring that he won't be eligible for Super-Two arbitration in 2010. When he does get the call, he'll immediately upgrade the Twins' center field defense from the projected Pridie/Monroe platoon, and he'll be a huge threat on the bases. If he's matured enough as a hitter by then, he has the potential to be an upgrade at the plate as well.
Predicted arrival date: July
OF - Denard Span
This year is likely Span's last shot to prove that he can be a part of the Twins' future. Because Gomez immediately leapt to the top of the prospect list, he's the long-term solution in CF. His development doesn't need to be rushed or disrupted this year. If one of the Twins' outfielders goes down early in the year, it should be Span who gets the first call-up. He'll be able to get his feet wet as a bench player, and will be especially useful for his defensive abilities. He needs to improve his stolen-base efficiency this season to be a complete threat as a baserunner, but he runs the bases well enough to be a solid pinch-runner as well.
Predicted arrival date: when Cuddyer, Young, Kubel, Pridie, or Monroe gets hurt.
IF - Alexi Casilla
Until 2007, Casilla had been a steady performer throughout his short professional career. He walks nearly as often as he strikes out, has a high minor-league OBP of .370, succeeds in over 75% of his stolen base attempts, and plays good defense up the middle. So his struggles with the Twins last season were a bit surprising, and he seemed to carry them back to Rochester with him. He made a ton of mistakes in every facet of the game. Basically, he showed that he hadn't reached a maturity level that would enable him to thrive in the majors yet. The signing of Adam Everett allows the Twins to give Casilla as much time in 2008 as he needs to fine-tune his game at AAA. Hopefully, he'll be more confident and reliable when he makes his next appearance.
Predicted arrival date: when Harris, Everett, or Punto gets hurt, or late summer.
3B - Brian Buscher
Buscher hadn't had a particularly note-worthy career before the Twins took him from the Giants in the minor-league Rule 5 draft last season. He'd shown a pretty good eye at the plate, but his power hadn't been anything special for a corner infielder. At 26, he was starting to be a little old for a prospect. But he absolutely exploded in 2007, shattering his career highs for average, slugging, and OPS. He went from AA to the majors while earning the organization's Minor-League Player-of-the-Year award. But the Twins signed Mike Lamb anyway. If Buscher can maintain his offensive production while improving his defense, he has a chance to displace Lamb at some point. In any event, we can expect to see him when corner infield depth is needed.
Predicted arrival date: when Lamb gets hurt.
1B - Brock Peterson
Peterson has been making a deliberate, steady climb through the Twins' system. After posting disappointing batting averages in 2004 and 2005 at class A, he remained in Fort Myers for 2006. His numbers improved tremendously, and he was able to mirror that success in New Britain last year. He's earned a trip to AAA, and if he can maintain those numbers at that level, he will have to be on the Twins' radar as a bench/DH candidate for 2009 and beyond. This year, he has a chance to see some time if the Twins expand their bench and want a left-handed slugger, or, heaven forbid, something happens to Morneau.
Predicted arrival date: September (or when Morneau gets hurt).
LHP - Brian Duensing
Duensing has flown through the system since being drafted in 2005. He posted a sensational 38/7 K/BB ratio and 1.07 WHIP in 9 starts at New Britain last year, earning a call-up to Rochester in June. In 19 starts he went 11-5 with a 3.24 ERA, and a K/BB ratio of nearly 3/1. If his first 9 starts at Rochester this year mirror the start to his 2007, he'll be an excellent candidate to take a spot in the Twins' rotation should anyone falter.
Predicted arrival date: June
RHP - Philip Humber
Another component of the Santana trade, Humber was the 3rd overall pick in 2004 after dominating for Rice in the College World Series. He managed just 15 starts between A+ and AA in 2005 before needing Tommy John surgery. He returned for 13 starts in late 2006 and looked terrific, putting up ERAs in the mid 2.00s with a WHIP under 1.00 and about a K/IP at those same levels. His 2007 numbers in the PCL don't seem terribly impressive on the surface, but that league tends to be unfriendly to pitchers, and Humber's 1.24 WHIP actually lead the league. Mets Geek gave a nicely detailed analysis of Humber's career so far last fall. As good as he looks overall, he still had some endurance issues last year, and has thrown just 184.1 innings above Class A. I'd like to see what he can do in the more pitcher-friendly International League, especially now that he's more than 2 full years beyond his surgery. While he's by no means a lock, his progress so far suggests that he could be ready to join the rotation by early summer. Or, as Nick and Nick suggest, he could be an effective weapon in the bullpen as well.
Predicted arrival date: June
RHP - Nick Blackburn
Like Buscher, Blackburn's numbers in 2007 far exceeded his career averages. He'd had a pattern of struggling initially at each level, and needing an extra half year or so there before moving up. The additional time resulted in a substantial improvement in WHIP and ERA, showing that he needs time to figure out how to adapt to the improved competition at each stage of his development. That all changed at Rochester last summer, thanks mostly to a remarkable string of 41.1 consecutive scoreless innings. He had a similar episode during his first, 7-start stint at AA in 2005, but wasn't able to sustain that success into 2006. While it's possible that something clicked with him in 2007, I think he was just hot last summer, and that he's not as MLB ready as some people believe. If he does keep it rolling, however, it will be hard to keep him in Rochester for long.
Projected arrival date: late summer.
LHP - Carmen Cali
Cali was terrific at Rochester last season, posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while allowing just one homer in 47.1 innings. He was OK in his time with the Twins (for a rookie). The biggest difference was control: 2.46 BB/9 at Rochester vs. 6.86 in Minnesota. He's never had great control, and, at 29, may be too old to learn it. However, with Dennys Reyes an uncertain commodity, and Jose Mijares out until at least mid-summer with a broken elbow, Cali may prove to be the best option out of the Twins' pen when they want a lefty-lefty matchup. And, as questionable as Cali's resume may be, that is a situation which certainly puts him in a position to succeed. If he'll just throw stirkes.
Predicted arrival date: when Reyes is injured/ineffective.
RHP - Julio DePaula
DePaula also had a terrific season at Rochester - how remarkable (though not relevant) that he went 12-5 as a reliever! His K/9 was up, while his BB/9 was down, resulting in a 1.11 WHIP. He got lit up pretty badly in 20 innings with the Twins, and with the bullpen set up pretty much like it was in late 2006, I don't think he'll get to move up right away. But, at this point, he should get consideration should anyone get injured or prove ineffective. One major concern - his HR rate went through the roof last year. He gave up as many homers (8) in 2007 as he had in his first 5 pro seasons combined. Hopefully, that was just a fluke, but it's a number I'll be paying close attention to this year.
Projected arrival date: when somebody in the bullpen gets hurt.
So those are the guys I expect to see with the Twins before September. Understanding more about the tendencies of the PCL vs. the IL, I feel a little better about Span and a lot better about Humber. Hopefully, by mid-season, half of the talent acquired in the Santana trade will be on display for Twins fans, and we can start to feel like the deal wasn't as lop-sided as initially thought.
CF - Carlos Gomez
Arguably the most promising Mets prospect to come over in the Santana trade, Gomez was pushed very quickly through the Minors before making his MLB debut last summer. He lost a couple of months to a broken hammet bone in his left hand. That shortened season leaves him with only about 300 career plate appearances above AA. He got off to a nice start in 2007 at AAA New Orleans, batting .286/.363/.414 in 36 games. I'd like to see if he can build on that for the first 2-3 months of 2008 at Rochester. This has the added benefit of holding down his MLB service time, ensuring that he won't be eligible for Super-Two arbitration in 2010. When he does get the call, he'll immediately upgrade the Twins' center field defense from the projected Pridie/Monroe platoon, and he'll be a huge threat on the bases. If he's matured enough as a hitter by then, he has the potential to be an upgrade at the plate as well.
Predicted arrival date: July
OF - Denard Span
This year is likely Span's last shot to prove that he can be a part of the Twins' future. Because Gomez immediately leapt to the top of the prospect list, he's the long-term solution in CF. His development doesn't need to be rushed or disrupted this year. If one of the Twins' outfielders goes down early in the year, it should be Span who gets the first call-up. He'll be able to get his feet wet as a bench player, and will be especially useful for his defensive abilities. He needs to improve his stolen-base efficiency this season to be a complete threat as a baserunner, but he runs the bases well enough to be a solid pinch-runner as well.
Predicted arrival date: when Cuddyer, Young, Kubel, Pridie, or Monroe gets hurt.
IF - Alexi Casilla
Until 2007, Casilla had been a steady performer throughout his short professional career. He walks nearly as often as he strikes out, has a high minor-league OBP of .370, succeeds in over 75% of his stolen base attempts, and plays good defense up the middle. So his struggles with the Twins last season were a bit surprising, and he seemed to carry them back to Rochester with him. He made a ton of mistakes in every facet of the game. Basically, he showed that he hadn't reached a maturity level that would enable him to thrive in the majors yet. The signing of Adam Everett allows the Twins to give Casilla as much time in 2008 as he needs to fine-tune his game at AAA. Hopefully, he'll be more confident and reliable when he makes his next appearance.
Predicted arrival date: when Harris, Everett, or Punto gets hurt, or late summer.
3B - Brian Buscher
Buscher hadn't had a particularly note-worthy career before the Twins took him from the Giants in the minor-league Rule 5 draft last season. He'd shown a pretty good eye at the plate, but his power hadn't been anything special for a corner infielder. At 26, he was starting to be a little old for a prospect. But he absolutely exploded in 2007, shattering his career highs for average, slugging, and OPS. He went from AA to the majors while earning the organization's Minor-League Player-of-the-Year award. But the Twins signed Mike Lamb anyway. If Buscher can maintain his offensive production while improving his defense, he has a chance to displace Lamb at some point. In any event, we can expect to see him when corner infield depth is needed.
Predicted arrival date: when Lamb gets hurt.
1B - Brock Peterson
Peterson has been making a deliberate, steady climb through the Twins' system. After posting disappointing batting averages in 2004 and 2005 at class A, he remained in Fort Myers for 2006. His numbers improved tremendously, and he was able to mirror that success in New Britain last year. He's earned a trip to AAA, and if he can maintain those numbers at that level, he will have to be on the Twins' radar as a bench/DH candidate for 2009 and beyond. This year, he has a chance to see some time if the Twins expand their bench and want a left-handed slugger, or, heaven forbid, something happens to Morneau.
Predicted arrival date: September (or when Morneau gets hurt).
LHP - Brian Duensing
Duensing has flown through the system since being drafted in 2005. He posted a sensational 38/7 K/BB ratio and 1.07 WHIP in 9 starts at New Britain last year, earning a call-up to Rochester in June. In 19 starts he went 11-5 with a 3.24 ERA, and a K/BB ratio of nearly 3/1. If his first 9 starts at Rochester this year mirror the start to his 2007, he'll be an excellent candidate to take a spot in the Twins' rotation should anyone falter.
Predicted arrival date: June
RHP - Philip Humber
Another component of the Santana trade, Humber was the 3rd overall pick in 2004 after dominating for Rice in the College World Series. He managed just 15 starts between A+ and AA in 2005 before needing Tommy John surgery. He returned for 13 starts in late 2006 and looked terrific, putting up ERAs in the mid 2.00s with a WHIP under 1.00 and about a K/IP at those same levels. His 2007 numbers in the PCL don't seem terribly impressive on the surface, but that league tends to be unfriendly to pitchers, and Humber's 1.24 WHIP actually lead the league. Mets Geek gave a nicely detailed analysis of Humber's career so far last fall. As good as he looks overall, he still had some endurance issues last year, and has thrown just 184.1 innings above Class A. I'd like to see what he can do in the more pitcher-friendly International League, especially now that he's more than 2 full years beyond his surgery. While he's by no means a lock, his progress so far suggests that he could be ready to join the rotation by early summer. Or, as Nick and Nick suggest, he could be an effective weapon in the bullpen as well.
Predicted arrival date: June
RHP - Nick Blackburn
Like Buscher, Blackburn's numbers in 2007 far exceeded his career averages. He'd had a pattern of struggling initially at each level, and needing an extra half year or so there before moving up. The additional time resulted in a substantial improvement in WHIP and ERA, showing that he needs time to figure out how to adapt to the improved competition at each stage of his development. That all changed at Rochester last summer, thanks mostly to a remarkable string of 41.1 consecutive scoreless innings. He had a similar episode during his first, 7-start stint at AA in 2005, but wasn't able to sustain that success into 2006. While it's possible that something clicked with him in 2007, I think he was just hot last summer, and that he's not as MLB ready as some people believe. If he does keep it rolling, however, it will be hard to keep him in Rochester for long.
Projected arrival date: late summer.
LHP - Carmen Cali
Cali was terrific at Rochester last season, posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while allowing just one homer in 47.1 innings. He was OK in his time with the Twins (for a rookie). The biggest difference was control: 2.46 BB/9 at Rochester vs. 6.86 in Minnesota. He's never had great control, and, at 29, may be too old to learn it. However, with Dennys Reyes an uncertain commodity, and Jose Mijares out until at least mid-summer with a broken elbow, Cali may prove to be the best option out of the Twins' pen when they want a lefty-lefty matchup. And, as questionable as Cali's resume may be, that is a situation which certainly puts him in a position to succeed. If he'll just throw stirkes.
Predicted arrival date: when Reyes is injured/ineffective.
RHP - Julio DePaula
DePaula also had a terrific season at Rochester - how remarkable (though not relevant) that he went 12-5 as a reliever! His K/9 was up, while his BB/9 was down, resulting in a 1.11 WHIP. He got lit up pretty badly in 20 innings with the Twins, and with the bullpen set up pretty much like it was in late 2006, I don't think he'll get to move up right away. But, at this point, he should get consideration should anyone get injured or prove ineffective. One major concern - his HR rate went through the roof last year. He gave up as many homers (8) in 2007 as he had in his first 5 pro seasons combined. Hopefully, that was just a fluke, but it's a number I'll be paying close attention to this year.
Projected arrival date: when somebody in the bullpen gets hurt.
So those are the guys I expect to see with the Twins before September. Understanding more about the tendencies of the PCL vs. the IL, I feel a little better about Span and a lot better about Humber. Hopefully, by mid-season, half of the talent acquired in the Santana trade will be on display for Twins fans, and we can start to feel like the deal wasn't as lop-sided as initially thought.
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