May Review

Twins' Record: 16-12

Overall Record: 31-20, 1st in AL Central by 4.5 games

A few days ago it looked as though the narrative for this month would be about a .500-ish record from a Twins team that still couldn't quite get over the hump against playoff caliber competition. They had just lost 2 frustrating 1-run games to the Yankees at home in the same day, dropping them to 11-12 in May. But they finished the month on a high note, winning their last 5 games, including a sweep of the AL West-leading Texas Rangers, and enter June once again on pace to finish the season with around 100 wins.

The offense continued to struggle with men on base, especially with the bases loaded. But thanks to 109 more BB, the Twins' OBP was .358, good for 2nd in the league. They also were among the league leaders in SB% and SF. Their scoring was down slightly, from 5.13 R/G to 4.75, but that was still good enough rank them in the top half of the league in offense.

The pitching remained at the top of the league rankings with a 3.79 ERA. This was due in part to the fact the Twins were far and away the league leaders in fewest walks allowed, as usual. They're getting QS about 60% of the time and limiting opponents to a .311 OBP. They allowed 26 HR in 251.2 IP for 0.93 HR/9 - which is actually pretty good for the Twins (last season they were at 1.15 HR/9). Target Field taketh away, but it also giveth.

The fielding was once again extremely sure-handed, as the Twins committed just 8 errors resulting in only 2 unearned runs. Their zone ratings remained favorable despite the fact that JJ Hardy spent most of the month injured, leaving Brendan Harris to cover a lot of innings at SS.

This month I'll be evaluating players with at least 20 PA, starting pitchers and relievers with at least 7 appearances:

Getting It Done

Justin Morneau - Through 2 months Morneau is doing what Mauer did last year, leading the AL in BA, OBP and SLG% thanks to a searing .400/.496/.710 line in May. Producing in the spring has never been his problem, however.

Denard Span - His poor BABIP numbers from April evened out in May, enabling him to go .353/.403/.462. Even more impressive, he went 7/7 in SB, putting him on pace for 35-40 on the season.

Delmon Young - .313/.348/.538 with 9 2B, 3 HR and 18 RBI. That's what we signed up for. 6 more BB against 11 K already gives him one more BB than he had in all of 2009.

Orlando Hudson - He led the team with 23 R from the #2 spot. Hopefully he won't miss too much time after his game-ending collision with Span on Sunday night.

Nick Blackburn - A 2.65 ERA and 7.1 IP/GS despite just 2.4 K/9. One of these days, I'm going to figure out how he does it, and the paper I write about it will win the Nobel Prize for Sabermetrics.

Scott Baker - 3.55 ERA and 6.1 IP/GS with a 33/8 K/BB ratio and only 3 HR allowed in 38 IP. (He almost certainly would have had 40+ IP had he not run into a rain delay against the Yankees last week.) That's the real Scott Baker.

Matt Guerrier - He got the job done without missing bats in April, but in May he had 11 K in 11 IP to go along with a 2.45 ERA and 0.82 WHIP.

Brian Duensing - He continues to be very effective out of the bullpen. It's a shame that the only HR he allowed in 10.1 IP proved to be so costly.

Jose Mijares - He's been the good Mijares again since returning from the DL, allowing just 1 R in 7.1 IP with a 6/0 K/BB ratio.

So Far, So Good

Michael Cuddyer - .245/.339/.434 doesn't look too great from a corner OF. But his 13/14 K/BB ratio was exceptional for Cuddyer, and he had more than his share of well-hit balls result in outs. If Alex Rios hadn't brought back that ball from over the bullpen fence, Cuddyer's May line would have been .255/.347/.472 - he swung the bat well enough to deserve at least that.

Alexi Casilla - A 4/7 K/BB ratio in 40 PA gave Casilla an OBP of .400 for the month. He threw in a 2B and a 3B among his 9 base hits. I'd like to see him steal some more bases, but that's plenty useful for a role player.

Wilson Ramos - Sure, he did almost all of his hitting in his first 2 games, but it was an impressive snapshot of his potential. I'm sure we'll see him again in September - assuming he isn't traded for some other goodies, that is.

Joe Mauer - AJ Pierzynski would kill to hit .293/.384/.400, but for Mauer, it's a bit of an off month.

Jason Kubel - The strikeout rate remains rather high, but he did major damage when he made contact, leading the team with 20 RBI, 4 of which came on the grand slam off Mariano Rivera.

Francisco Liriano - The ERA was over 5.00 and the WHIP over 1.50, but I don't see any problem with Liriano's game right now. His HR/9, K/9 and BB/9 were all excellent. In essentially the same number of innings as Blackburn had, Liriano allowed 8 more hits, even though his K numbers meant that he gave up 25-30 fewer balls in play. That's just bad luck, and it will even out soon.

Carl Pavano - He threw one clunker in Toronto, but gave the Twins all they could have asked for in the other 4 GS: At least 7 IP with a 3.00 ERA with 3 HR allowed in 30 IP.

Jesse Crain - It looked as though Crain was on the brink after getting blasted twice in 3 appearances on the East Coast trip. But he hasn't allowed a R in his last 6 appearances, with just 3 H and 1 BB against 5 K over those 6 IP.

Jon Rauch - It was a bit of a shaky month for Rauch, who sent a 6-2 game against the Brewers into the bottom of the ninth at 7-6, then served up the clinching HR to the Yankees on Wednesday night, then let things get interesting against the Mariners on the 31st. Still, 6 saves in 7 chances, thanks in part to just 1 BB in 11 IP.

Alex Burnett - The ERA was excellent, but he walked as many as he struck out, inflating his WHIP for the month to nearly 1.50. He's been effective, but he'll have to cut down the walks before I'll believe that he can have consistent success this year.

Need to Pick It Up

Brendan Harris - Just 3 for his last 35, Harris wound up hitting just .140/.178/.163 for the month. His defense isn't anything special, either, so he's got to be hanging by a pretty thin thread right now, with everyone from Danny Valencia to Matt Tolbert looking like they could do better.

Nick Punto - He didn't walk much in April, so that's starting to come around, but the high number of strikeouts (15 in 69 AB) were the reason he was bad at the plate instead of merely not good.

JJ Hardy - He started the month 7 for 18 with a 2B and 3B, the latter resulting in a wrist injury as he slid into 3rd base. I really missed his glove during his 3 weeks on the shelf. He's gone just 4 for 24 since returning, but hopefully can find his groove again soon.

Jim Thome - Appearing mainly as a pinch hitter, Thome did a nice job of getting on base (.362 OBP), but struck out 14 times in 46 AB.

Drew Butera - Sadly, 4 for 20 with a 2B may be as good as it gets for Butera.

Kevin Slowey - No, it wasn't bad, but someone with Slowey's skills ought to be able to do better than a 4.55 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 1.6 HR/9. Of course, what really disappointed me was the average start that finished short of the 6th inning.

Ron Mahay - The damage basically came in just 2 appearances, and there were extenuating circumstances in each. But they hurt, especially for someone who is on the fringe of usefulness like Mahay. He alternated excellent and crappy months for the Royals in 2009 - we may be in store for a similar roller coaster ride this year.

May Review

Twins' Record: 14-16
Overall Record: 25-27, 3rd in AL Central 4.5 games back

In more than 20 years of following the Twins, I've never seen a month like this. They suddenly turned into the Rangers, maybe even the Yankees, at the plate. Looking at the AL team batting stats for the month, the Twins are in the top 3 in R, H, BA, OBP, SLG%, and HR! Yes, after accumulating just 111 HR in all of 2008, the Twins sent 41 balls over the fence in their 30 May games, putting them on pace to finish the season with 178 long balls. With the pitching improving to the middle of the pack, and the defense still leading the league in fewest errors and unearned runs, the Twins were able to outscore their opponents 168-138.

And yet, that didn't translate into a winning month. Despite all of the hitting, there were too many men left on base. For all the HR, too many came with no one on base. The pitching improved, but still let the team down in key situations. And, as we saw on Saturday in Tampa, there's more to good defense than just avoiding errors. As they seemed to do routinely late last season, the Twins would follow narrow, agonizing losses with emphatic wins, inflating their run differential without doing much for their record. The textbook definition of this phenomenon is their lone win on the 7-game road trip to NY and Chicago, a 20-1 affair that enabled them to come home having scored more runs than they'd allowed despite a 1-6 record.

The road seems to be the trouble - so far the Twins are just 6-16 away from the Dome. That ugly winning percentage will have to change in a hurry, as the Twins play 18 of their 27 games in June on the road. However, 9 of those games are inter-league, where the Twins have thrived in recent years, and 7 others are against the bottom-feeders of the AL West, Seattle and Oakland. That will be a welcome change after an exceedingly tough May schedule - the aggregate winning percentage of the teams the Twins faced this month was .528. In June, it will be .475.

This month is the time to make a move. The Twins have been able to put together fantastic Junes in recent years. If they keep swinging the way they did in May, while continuing to improve their pitching performance, we should see them easily over .500 when the month ends.

The grades will illustrate another remarkable feature of the Twins' performance this month: just how large the gap was between the guys who were playing well and the guys who weren't. We'll hope to see the guys who have been struggling start to rise up toward their expected levels as the stars inevitably slow down. Minimum 30 PA for hitters and 8 IP for pitchers.

Getting It Done

Joe Mauer - Ya think? .414/.500/.838 with a 16/19 K/BB ratio and 2 more HR than he hit in all of 2008. Now that he's been sensibly moved into the #2 spot in the order, it is much more difficult for opponents to avoid pitching to Justin Morneau with men on base.

Justin Morneau - He's no Joe Mauer, but .361/.459/.713 with 9 HR and 29 RBI isn't too shabby. After showing little patience in April, he evened his K/BB rate at 20/20 after Mauer's return. It's been amazing to watch those two hit consecutively.

Michael Cuddyer - This is why I didn't think the Twins needed to panic about finding a middle-of-the-order RH bat during the offseason. Not that I expect Cuddyer to hit .312/.395/.651 with 8 HR and 26 RBI every month. But added to his slow start in April, he's now on pace for a season of .276/.363/.514 with 27 HR and about 100 RBI - just about what he delivered in 2006, his last fully healthy season.

Joe Crede - This month was about the best we could hope for from Crede. A decent .265 BA, leading to a rather poor .311 OBP, but 6 HR and 3 2B cranked the SLG% up to .574. And the defense is still terrific. If only it weren't so hard to keep him on the field.

Jason Kubel - Mostly singles this month from Kubel, but enough of them to finish the month with a .329 BA. He's been striking out a little too often, however. I'd like to see him be more selective going forward - that will probably help him find pitches to drive.

Denard Span - With 5 guys behind him walloping the ball over the field, Span's job is simple: get on base. And that he did, with an OBP of .388 and 19/17 K/BB ratio. He's still a little too susceptible to the called strikeout over the inside corner, but otherwise he's showing no signs of dropping off from his excellent rookie campaign.

Mike Redmond - At his advanced age, I can't imagine Redmond doing any better than he did in May: .310/.333/.379 with 2 doubles.

Nick Blackburn - Leave it to the #4 starter to lead the rotation in IP and ERA for the month. After a lousy first start in Detroit (abetted by just as shaky defense) Blackburn finished at least 6 innings in his remaining 5 starts, leaving the game with the Twins leading or tied each time.

Kevin Slowey - After 2 dicey outings to begin the month, including a rain-shortened start in Baltimore, Slowey completed at least 6 IP with 2 of fewer ER allowed in his final 4 starts of the month. Overall, he had a typically outstanding 25/3 K/BB ratio.

Anthony Swarzak - Filling in for the injured (and struggling) Glen Perkins, Rochester's best pitcher (and one of the organization's top prospects) shut out the Brewers in his MLB debut, then matched Josh Beckett for 6 innings before taking a hard luck loss on Thursday. No need to rush back, Glen.

R.A. Dickey - Other than that disastrous outing vs. KC when he entered with the bases loaded and wasn't allowed to use his knuckler, Dickey has been money. He's done exactly what a long-reliever should, not only eating innings (4 or more IP in each of his last 3 appearances), but limiting any further damage (only 2 ER in his last 16.2 IP).

Joe Nathan - If only he could have that first night in NYC back, when he was touched for 3 ER on 3 H and 2 BB (one intentional) in 0.2 IP. However, in his other 12 appearances, he allowed 0 ER on only 6 H and 1 BB with 13 K in 11.2 IP. Nothing wrong with that.

Matt Guerrier - This month he was back to his old self. Though he allowed 3 solo HR in the first half of the month, he only gave up one other run in the remainder of his appearances, finishing May with a 2.40 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in 15 IP.

Jose Mijares - There weren't too many 1-2-3 innings for Mijares this month, but he's been very good at pitching his way out of jams once he lets men on base. Too bad we can't take back the HR he served up to Ken Griffey Jr. that cost the Twins a win.

So Far, So Good

Luis Ayala - He's been even more prone to allow baserunners than Mijares, but in recent outings has done nearly as good a job leaving them on base. I'd still be nervous going to him with the game on the line, but I don't despair when he takes the mound like I did last month.

Need To Pick It Up

Brendan Harris - He's going to get his share of playing time with Nick Punto on the DL, so he's going to need to improve on his .238/.297/.369 line from May. I still notice an immediate drop off in defensive range when he's at SS.

Carlos Gomez - He hasn't been playing every day, and you can't say he deserves to based on his .237/.303/.322 line. He isn't bunting, he isn't stealing bases. However, the CF defense is phenomenal, and he managed to lower his K/BB ratio to 12/5. All of that makes him a much better candidate for more playing time than...

Delmon Young - In fairness to Young, he was at least hitting for a pretty good average before he missed about 1/3 of the month to be with his family for his mother's death and burial. Since returning, he hasn't had a clue at the plate, and overall, he still had 0 XBH in 55 AB with a 22/3 K/BB ratio. Add to that the fact that he often turns fly-outs into doubles in the field, and we're probably looking at the least valuable player on the team.

Matt Tolbert - When he was called up, I said he probably couldn't do worse than Alexi Casilla, who had about a .475 OPS at the time. I guess he's technically been an upgrade, hitting .189/.265/.257 for a .522 OPS. His greatest contribution to the team may be that he finally forced Gardy to move Mauer up to the #2 slot in the batting order.

Brian Buscher - There is an incremental acceleration in the game between AAA and the Majors, and so far I'm not sure that Buscher, who was a dominant hitter at Rochester, has that extra gear. He's just a little late on fastballs in the zone, he's just tentative enough in the field to turn outs into base hits. I wish there were somebody at Rochester who could do the job better, but I don't see it right now.

Nick Punto - Even 2007 was better than this. While he's been a pretty reliable glove at SS, and he's done a good job of working counts (11/9 K/BB ratio), he just can't seem to square the ball up when he puts it in play. .152/.244/.182 is impossible to live with, even from your #9 hitter.

Scott Baker - He's getting closer to form, as evidenced by his 1.11 WHIP and 27/6 K/BB ratio in 38 IP. But he hasn't been able to scatter his hits, as we saw when his 5-6 inning gems vs. KC and Detroit turned into 5 ER outings with shocking quickness. And he's still giving up way too many HR, 2 each in his last 3 starts.

Francisco Liriano - Also can't avoid the big inning. He brought a lot of it on himself by walking 17 batters in 30.1 IP. Though he's lasted just 4 IP in 3 straight starts, I was encouraged by his last outing in Tampa. Yes, he allowed 4 ER in a grueling 47 pitch inning, but he got grounders with men on base, and there were hardly any hard-hit balls against him.

Glen Perkins - As good as he was in April, he was bad in May, serving up 6 HR in 18 IP with a 10.00 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. I hope the shoulder trouble that sent him to the DL was the problem and that he'll be an 8 IP pitcher again when he returns. But I'm not shipping Swarzak out to make room for him either, and the bullpen doesn't seem like an awful alternative.

Jesse Crain - In a brutal 5-game sequence this month, Crain allowed an ER in each outing, totaling 6 ER in just 3 IP and taking 2 losses, bailed out of a 3rd by Joe Crede's walk-off Grand Slam. He looks like a shell of the confident pitcher we saw in spring training and the first half of April.

Craig Breslow - His April funk spilled over into May, as he continued to serve up BB and HR at an unprecedented pace. Reeling from their taxing series vs. the Yankees, the Twins called up Sean Henn when Perkins went on the DL, necessitating another move when Swarzak was called up to fill the rotation hole. They opted to put Breslow on waivers, where he was promptly claimed by Oakland. Since then he's allowed 2 ER on 3 H and 1 BB with 7 K in 6.2 IP. Whoops!

May Review

May Record: 15-13
Overall: 28-27, 2nd in AL Central by 2 games

Fitting that the Twins should conclude this month by losing an extra-inning game that would have been theirs in regulation had they played perfect defense. The 3 unearned runs that scored after Punto's error made it 23 total for May, adding 0.82 runs/game for the offense to overcome. The Twins lost 3 extra-inning games this month, and all three featured fielding or base-running errors which helped their opponent tie the score at the end of nine innings. Never mind the increased strain on the pitching staff caused by the poor defense - it costs wins as well. Had the Twins won two of those 3 extra-inning games, they'd be in first place, and would have had a great month at 17-11.

Thankfully, the offense came to life. This was especially apparent in the walks department: after finishing last in the AL in walks and OBP in April, the Twins came in 3rd in OBP for May. This led to a 2nd-place finish in runs scored, behind only Texas. The HRs picked up slightly, but the team went crazy with triples, and finished the month in 4th place in OPS.

Good thing the offense took a step forward, because the pitching slid back. The injury to Pat Neshek exposed the weaker links in the bullpen. Livan Hernandez predictably gravitated away from his exemplary April toward his recent norms. Boof Bonser started consistently giving up big innings, and has lost his spot in the rotation. Thankfully, the least experienced members of the rotation have proven to be worth the high prospect ratings they received, and they will soon be joined by Scott Baker (and possibly Liriano?).

For a young team with low expectations, any winning month has to be considered a success. As I write this, the Twins are within easy reach of first place, and remain several games ahead of pre-season AL Central favorites Cleveland and Detroit. If the Twins can continue to improve in June, the notion that this is a rebuilding year should be set aside, and the Twins should use their considerable cap-room and minor league assets to acquire an impact player or two for the second half.

On to evaluations of players with at least 35 PAs and pitchers with at least 7.2 IP:

Getting It Done

Justin Morneau - Just 9 of his 38 hits this month went for extra bases, but he led the regulars by playing in every game and hitting .336/.405/.496 for the month with 20 RBI and a 21/13 K/BB ratio.

Joe Mauer - The M&M boys are back! We're still waiting for Mauer's first HR, and he had just 5 XBH in May overall. But he reached base at a .442 clip, thanks to a .333 BA and 8/19 K/BB ratio. He was second in runs with 17.

Carlos Gomez - The 30/6 KK/BB rate is still a concern for a leadoff hitter, and his SB efficiency dropped to 6/10. But his approach at the plate has been much better, his K/BB rate is an improvement over April, and his 48 TB is second only to Morneau. He got his OBP up to .348, and if he can keep improving like this every month, he's going to be a good one.

Mike Lamb - He overcame his abysmal April to go .302/.340/.407 in May, and finally hit his first HR last week. He continues to be productive with men in scoring position, and has been serviceable at 3rd base.

Alexi Casilla - What a pleasant surprise he's been the last couple weeks. Though his average was horrendous in Rochester, he was walking about as much as he struck out, and that has continued with the Twins (7/8 K/BB). On top of that, he hit .340/.417/.520 with 2 HR and 13 RBI in just 50 ABs. He's made some costly errors, but his range is excellent. He's making a case for sticking in the Majors this time.

Joe Nathan - 5/6 in save opportunities, and the one he "blew" wasn't his fault at all. Too good to only get 11.2 IP.

Matt Guerrier - He gave up way too many walks (9), so his WHIP was a big problem for awhile, but he finished the month strong and wound up with a 2.12 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 17 IP. The Twins desperately need him to keep that up!

Kevin Slowey - After coming up just short (in terms of IP) of quality starts in his first 3 starts after returning from the DL, Slowey put together 2 very good starts to finish the month. He allowed just 1 ER in 15 IP in those starts, ending May with a 2.87 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 31.1 IP.

Nick Blackburn - He'll give up his hits (38 in 33.1 IP), but his control (5 BB in 5 GS) and his ability to get ground balls keeps him out of trouble and pitching deep into games. Hope his nose is OK.

Glen Perkins - He didn't have it Friday night against the Yankees, but his first 4 starts were terrific. If he can keep giving the Twins 4 out of 5 good starts, he'll have a place in the rotation.

Bobby Korecky - I'm not sure how long there will be room for him with the Twins, but he's done everything they've asked of him so far. His 0.91 WHIP was tops in the 'pen for the month.

So Far, So Good

Livan Hernandez - The 2.43 K/9 plus the 1.57 WHIP are a recipe for disaster, yet Livan has so far produced reasonably well. He averaged well over 6 IP/start, and he often manages to get out of the trouble he gets himself into. June is historically his worst month, so look out...

Jesse Crain - Like Livan, Crain managed to pitch effectively despite an atrocious 2.14 WHIP and 3.86 K/9. He'll need to drastically cut down on base-runners if he's to remain useful. However, for his 2nd month back from major shoulder surgery, not bad.

Juan Rincon - Way too many walks (12 in 15.1 IP) killed his WHIP (1.70), but he was mostly able to limit the damage, putting up a 4.12 ERA for the month with 0 HR allowed.

Brian Bass - Why is someone with a 6.61 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in this category? Well, if you throw out his appearance in Detroit (1.1 IP, 7 ER on 7 H), his overall numbers for May aren't too shabby: 3.00 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 15 IP. Rookies are going to have bad games every now and then, but on the whole, Bass has done his long-relief job well.

Need to Pick It Up

Dennys Reyes - A lot of hits fell in against him this month. He was frequently used in situations that exposed his weaknesses (any time he pitches to a RHB, for example). Hopefully Breslow can take some of that pressure off, and Reyes will have better luck this month.

Boof Bonser - Boof just couldn't stay out of the big inning this month, and it cost him his spot in the rotation. Hopefully, he can be an asset to the bullpen.

Delmon Young - May was an improvement over April in terms of OBP (16/11 K/BB ratio) and power (4 2B, 3 3B), but we all had reason to expect even more. His defense has been terribly scattered for the last couple weeks.

Jason Kubel - He's showing some signs of life, and didn't get a whole lot of ABs early in the month. Still, his OPS should be comfortably in the .800s, not barely over .700.

Brendan Harris - Thank goodness he's drawing walks, or he'd be completely useless. .217/.320/.289, and his terrible defensive range is evident whether he's playing 2B or SS. I wish they'd kept Bartlett.

Craig Monroe - He hit 4 HR in limited action, and a couple of them were huge. But he struck out in 1/3 of his ABs, and the BA fell back to its 2007 levels (.216).

Michael Cuddyer - Lots of Ks (23) and not that many XBHs (7). 17 RBI for the month, but with Gomez, Casilla, Mauer and Morneau constantly on base, it could have been a lot better.

Matt Tolbert - He was only batting .212/.257/.303 before he foolishly destroyed his thumb by diving into first base.

Adam Everett - 6 of his 9 hits were for extra bases! That's about the only good thing I can say about him. Not that sorry he's not in the lineup every day - not sure I want to see him back when he's healed.