June Review

Twins' Record: 12-15

Overall Record: 43-35, 1st in AL Central by 1.5 games

The Twins took a pretty significant step backward this month in just about every phase of the game. June is so often the point when the Twins put the pedal down, because they are routinely dominant in interleague play. But they went just 6-9 in their games against NL opponents this month, while playing .500 against AL teams. There's no shame in playing Atlanta, Colorado, Philadelphia and the Mets to a draw, but dropping 3 straight to the Brewers was a major low point, particularly when the Twins have won so regularly in Milwaukee in recent years.

The offense dropped off another half run from where they were in May, scoring just 4.26 R/G, good for just 11th in the league. They scored 3 or fewer R 12 times, going 2-10 in those games. A lot of that was related to Orlando Hudson spending half the month on the DL, then needing a while to get back up to speed. A lot of it has to do with a subpar month from Joe Mauer, and a fairly punchless month from Michael Cuddyer. The Twins drew far fewer walks, dropping their OBP below league average for the first time this season. Where they did succeed, it was due especially to the soaring OBP Nick Punto provided at the bottom of the lineup (even when Denard Span and Hudson were scuffling) and the clutch hitting of Delmon Young, who always seemed to come through when he came up with RISP.

The pitching slumped from the top tier of the league down to the middle of the pack with a 4.22 ERA. They allowed 5 or more R 13 times, going 1-12 in those games (the only win coming in the Saturday afternoon slugfest in Philly). The back end of the rotation was the main culprit: Scott Baker (6.07 ERA), Kevin Slowey (5.29) and Nick Blackburn (10.17) were regularly battered, combining for just 87.2 IP over 17 GS (5+ IP/GS) and allowing 19 HR (1.95 HR/9) in that span. Thankfully, Carl Pavano was brilliant, mopping up 40 IP over 5 GS with a sparkling 2.25 ERA. And Alex Burnett was the weakest link in the bullpen with a 4.22 ERA - not too shabby.

I was used to seeing zeroes from the Twins in the Error column of the box score, but this month that wasn't the norm. After committing just 12 E and allowing only 5 unearned R over the first 2 months of 2010, the Twins had 17 E and 7 unearned R in June. 3 of those E and unearned R were the difference between winning and losing the finale against the Royals. And there were several times when the IF failed to convert bunts and fielded grounders into outs, extending innings and allowing more damage to be done. I blame the absence of Hudson and JJ Hardy for a lot of this - hopefully those two will both be able to stay on the field for the 2nd half.

While the Twins were stumbling along, the White Sox and Tigers were rampaging through a slate of National League cream puffs, so the standings are suddenly pretty tight. The next month will set the tone for the 2nd half of the season. If the Twins play the way they did in April, they'll rebuild their lead and force the competition to make some tough choices about whether they want to upgrade their rosters in order to stay in the race. If they play the way they did in June, they'll embolden the rest of the division, and we'll be in for another fight all the way to the final days of the season.

This month I'll just be looking at guys who contributed at least 30 PA or 9 IP:

Getting It Done

Jason Kubel - It took a couple months to get going, but .316/.356/.537 is a line that any team will be happy to have from a corner OF.

Jim Thome - Here's how to make the most of limited playing time: in just 28 AB, Thome had 8 H, 7 for extra bases. Giving him regular PA for the rest of the season could be one of the keys for the Twins in the 2nd half.

Delmon Young - The walks really trailed off, and the IsoP wasn't terribly impressive, either. What was impressive was the timeliness of Young's hits, as he seemed to come through in every situation with RISP. His 24 RBI were 50% more than any other Twin accumulated.

Carl Pavano - The pitching MVP for the month, Pavano not only soaked up 40 IP in 5 GS, he did it with a 2.25 ERA and 0.80 WHIP.

Jon Rauch - Only 4/5 in save opportunities, but he was generally pretty reliable, allowing just 6 baserunners in 9 IP and only 1 ER, a memorable 2-out PH HR in the bottom of the 10th.

Jesse Crain - I wasn't sure he was going to stay on the staff after May, so I can forgive a few too many walks (6 in 9.2 IP) if it comes with 9 K, 9 H and 0 HR allowed for a 1.86 ERA.

Brian Duensing - Whether he needs to pick up a few innings after a short start, face a tough lefty or two, or give a full inning in the setup role, Duensing has been totally effective this year.

Matt Guerrier - Another great month for Guerrier in terms of ERA (2.03) and WHIP (1.20), and he finally had the strikeouts (12 in 13.1 IP) to justify it.

Ron Mahay - Last season, Mahay bounced between good months and lousy months. That pattern is continuing in 2010. June was one of the good months.

So Far, So Good

Justin Morneau - .299/.349/.505 is about the least I'd expect from an All-Star first baseman.

Danny Valencia - He was surprisingly punchless in the minors, and that's continued with the Twins. But he's hitting for average (.304) and has drawn enough walks to get his OBP to .360. That, plus competent defense at 3B, is a solid contribution from a rookie at the bottom of the lineup.

Nick Punto - .301/.396/.386 is about as good a hitting line as we'll see from Punto. Unfortunately, his defense was shaky at times - the mistakes he made in the field led to a few extra runs that really hurt.

Francisco Liriano - Just look at the key peripherals: 6.2 IP/GS, 2.2 BB/9, 10.9 K/9, 0 HR/9, 1.18 WHIP. Those are ace numbers. If he can just cut down on the HBP and IF H, we're in business.

Alex Burnett - I feel like we're starting to see some cracks in Burnett's game. But, he's a rookie, and a rather young one, and he's holding his own.

Need To Pick It Up

Joe Mauer - .271/.349/.396 is decent for a C, but it's not worth $23M/year.

Denard Span - Only 7 BB this month, dropping the OBP to .319. That's not going to cut it from the leadoff spot.

Orlando Hudson - He's been slow to recover from his injury, striking out 12 times in just 50 AB since his return to the lineup.

Michael Cuddyer - He hit a HR the 2nd game of the month, and that was that in the power department. Great to see him willing to take on 3B, though - letting Thome into the lineup should be a net gain for the team.

Matt Tolbert - A .625 OPS isn't too far beneath what one could have expected from Tolbert. It's also not enough to make it worth keeping him around.

Kevin Slowey - The WHIP is identical to Liriano's, the BB/9 is better. But 5 HR in 32.1 IP is too many, not to mention all the other XBH he gave up - usually in quick succession.

Scott Baker - A strikeout per inning, a walk every 10 IP. That's excellent. But 8 HR in 29.2 IP? That's horrendous.

Nick Blackburn - Whatever he had going for him in May didn't follow him into June. He was shelled for 45 H, including 6 HR, in just 25.2 IP over 6 GS. Even worse, he walked 11 in that time, a rate someone with his stuff can ill afford.

June Review

Twins Record: 15-12
Overall Record: 40-39, 2nd in AL Central by 4 games

The Twins finally put together a winning month in June. If they could have achieved these results every month, they'd be on their way to 90 wins and a likely playoff spot. In other words, months like this are what you hope for.

And yet, it feels like it should have been better. According to Bill James' Pythagorean Expectation, the Twins' 112-93 run differential this month should have led to a 16-11 record. How did that extra win get away? We need only look to Nick Blackburn's 5 starts. They were all quality, to say the least - he averaged 2 ER over 7.2 IP - but the team came out on top just once. Two of those games were lost in the bottom of the 8th inning, with Blackburn just an out or two from handing the game to Joe Nathan. Of course, it didn't help that the offense provided just 9 R of support in those 4 losses.

From the rarefied heights of May, the offense inevitably came crashing back to earth in June. They scored 26% fewer runs, hit about 1/3 fewer HR, and saw their team OPS drop from .821 to .737. Some of that had to do with the pitchers going 0 for 27 in the 9 interleague road games. Some of it was the result of Denard Span spending about half of the month on the DL, inviting extra ABs from Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez. But mostly, it was a simple regression from the otherworldly numbers that Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer were able to produce in May.

Luckily, the pitching staff picked up the slack. They were 3rd in the league in ERA and R allowed this month, and first in fewest walks, as usual. Perhaps most importantly, they cut their HR allowed rate by 40%. I would attribute part of that to a relatively easy schedule - 18 of the 27 games the Twins played this month were against teams with below average OPS. But the starters definitely stepped up, too, pitching deeper into games more consistently, enabling Gardy to more or less avoid the weaker pieces of the bullpen.

Though the Twins didn't quite win as many as they should have, it's important to give them credit for what they did accomplish. Considering that they were a disaster on the road through 2 months, it's a great achievement for them to have gone 10-8 on the road this month. From here on in, the Twins play more at home than away, and against easier competition than they faced in the first half (other than 3 home games with the Yankees, the Twins are done with the Titans of the East). Three more months like they just had should be enough to keep them in contention right to the end.

Only hitters with 20+ AB and pitchers with at least 6.1 IP qualify for grades this month.

Getting It Done

Joe Mauer - How awesome was he in May? His OPS dropped by .441 month-to-month, and he still finished June at .897. That number, along with 3 HR, is probably what we can expect from Joe going forward.

Jason Kubel - Led the team with 8 HR and 17 RBI in about 15 fewer PA than Morneau had, and showed he could be competent in the field. In order to keep his bat in the lineup, Gardy should routinely send Kubel out there on the days Mauer is the DH.

Nick Punto - He only got to play in 11 games, which is a shame, because .323/.371./355 is about as much as we can reasonably hope to get from him at the plate.

Joe Nathan - 12 appearances, 11 SV in 11 chances, 0 ER on 4 H and 1 BB in 11.2 IP with 18 K. It's hard to imagine a closer having a better month.

RA Dickey - Signed to be a long reliever (if not AAA starter), Dickey has pitched his way into a setup role. This month he allowed just 1 ER in 13.2 IP with a 0.80 WHIP and 7.9 K/9.

Matt Guerrier - Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the improved starting rotation, Guerrier made 14 appearances this month, but only totaled 10.1 IP. Hopefully that will keep him fresher for the 2nd half this time around.

Nick Blackburn - The Twins' most valuable pitcher of the first half. The innings he's been able to rack up every fifth turn have done incalculable good for what was at times a beleaguered bullpen. I don't know if he can keep it up much longer, but I'm enjoying it while it lasts.

Glen Perkins - Whatever was troubling him in May seemed to get fixed, as Perkins averaged 6.2 IP in his first 3 starts back from the DL, with a terrific 1.10 WHIP.

Scott Baker - Just 3 HR allowed in 39.1 IP over 6 strong starts. This is the guy we thought would be the ace when the season began.

Bobby Keppel - 6.1 scoreless IP to begin his tenure with the Twins. Maybe he can match Anthony Swarzak's debut...

So Far, So Good

Brendan Harris - Taking over as the regular SS, Harris has provided steady defense and pretty good production at the plate, although the strikeout rate was a little higher than I'd like to see this month.

Michael Cuddyer - .278/.333/.481 is pretty close to what I would expect from a healthy Cuddyer over any reasonably lengthy stretch of games.

Joe Crede - Not nearly the power he displayed in May, but I'll still take a .323 OBP from him along with his stellar defensive contributions.

Francisco Liriano - Excellent progress in the BB and HR department, leading to a good 3.77 ERA and an average of 6 IP/start.

Jose Mijares - He keeps getting away with it, but his shaky control (5 BB in 6.1 IP) is going to get the better of him if he doesn't clean it up soon.

Luis Ayala - He was actually more or less doing what he was expected to do when his attitude got on Gardy's bad side. No big loss, I guess.

Need To Pick It Up

Denard Span - Even when nothing's falling in for him, Span still does a great job of working counts, as evidenced by his 8/8 K/BB ratio. But yeah, he needs to hit better than .208/.311/.302.

Justin Morneau - An .801 OPS with a 14/14 K/BB ratio and 5 HR would be a great month for a lot of guys, but for Morneau, it's not his best.

Delmon Young - While I appreciate the 5 XBH (however many came courtesy of the Metrodome roof) and the .284 BA, 18 K in 67 AB is a problem, especially when it's accompanied by 0 BB.

Carlos Gomez - I think I'm seeing growth from Gomez. He seems to be having good ABs more consistently. But he still manages to throw enough of them away to keep his numbers way down.

Brian Buscher - With his superlative plate discipline (.142 IsoD), Buscher would be a tremendous hitter if he could get anything to fall in.

Matt Tolbert - At least he's drawing walks, because he can't do anything when he swings.

Mike Redmond - His age is really catching up to him. I would advise mixing Jose Morales in more on Mauer's off days.

Kevin Slowey - Albert Pujols was the difference between Slowey landing down here or in the previous category. The 10 BB in 26.1 IP is unheard of, and I expect that to be cleaned up in July.

Anthony Swarzak - 2 of his 3 starts this month were clunkers, but the last one was a gem. He's been dealing again since he returned to Rochester.

Sean Henn - We threw away Craig Breslow for this?

June Review

Twins Record: 17-11
Overall Record: 45-38, 2nd in AL Central by 2.5 games

The month began about as bleakly as you could imagine. After finishing a split with the Yankees, the Twins dropped a series at home to Baltimore, beginning a 6-game losing streak. In the middle of that streak the Twins suffered a brutal 4-game sweep at the hands of division rivals the Chicago White Sox. More of a slaughter, actually - the Twins were outscored 40-15 during the four games. Gardy urged the team to refocus on fundamentals, coinciding with the arrival of Interleague play. Thank goodness for Interleauge, what has come to be the most successful piece of the season in recent years. The Twins once again delivered, going 13-2 vs. the NL this month - including a 10-game winning streak - to cap a very successful June.

The offense continued to rank among the top in the AL in runs, H, 2B, 3B and BA, despite ranking 10th in HR, OBP and OPS and 12th in BB. The 23 HR this month were more than April or May, but still not close to the rest of the league. Interestingly, the team was just 7/16 in SB attempts, ranking last in the league - that's something they'll need to improve upon in July. The Twins do it with timely hitting and productive outs, batting well over .300 with RISP, and leading the league in sacrifice bunts and SF.

The pitching staff appears to be among the league's worst in June, but 40 of the 116 ER the Twins allowed for the month occurred in that skewed 4-game series in Chicago. In the 24 games outside of that, the staff put up a 2.96 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 216 IP. A lot of pitchers' stats have been dragged down by that weekend, but the general trend is of vastly improved pitching, including ample innings from the young guys in the rotation. This has reduced the pressure on the bullpen, enabling them to be more effective as well. The Twins have a chance to be among the top 5 pitching staffs in the AL in the 2nd half, particularly if they remove certain members who are dragging them down.

The Twins were able to tighten things up defensively in June. After committing 18 errors in April and 25 in May, they made just 13 errors in 28 games this month. That pace would have them among the league leaders had they come out of the gate like that. Better defense translates into fewer runs allowed: the Twins gave up 10 unearned runs in April and 23 in May, but they allowed just 6 in June. Part of that is a credit to stingier pitching, but it also reflects the fact that there were fewer extra outs given by the defense.

On to the evaluations. About 2/3 of the team wound up in the happy column - I guess that's to be expected when things are going well.

Getting It Done

Jason Kubel - he stopped swinging at pitches out of the zone, and it's made all the difference. Not just the 14/12 BB/K ratio, but he's saving his swings for pitches he can handle, resulting in a sick .317/.418/.636 line with 6 HR for the month. And he's even starting to hit LHP...

Joe Mauer - the average and OBP have been there all year, but now the power is starting to come. Mauer's 11 2B and 3 HR this month helped him to lift his OPS to nearly 1.000.

Justing Morneau - the power and the walks dipped a bit this month, but I can't argue with a guy who so consistently comes through with RISP. His 21 RBI this month led the team.

Delmon Young - Young's OPS has been improving by .100 or more points each month so far. Now that he's shown he can put a couple over the fence, the next step is to merge his good plate discipline from May with the power of June.

Alexi Casilla - second on the team with 17 RBI for the month. He's been matching up well with other leading AL 2B from the offensive standpoint, and he's definitely improved the team's range at the position.

Brian Buscher - just 50 AB from Buscher this month, but he's already shown why he was the organization's top minor-leaguer last year. 14 RBI in 14 games since joining the starting lineup, with an .825 OPS.

Mike Redmond - 7 games and 25 ABs for Redmond this month, the result of the grinding schedule the Twins finished in the first half of June. His .360/.407/.440 line in those 7 games isn't a huge drop-off from Mauer.

Micheal Cuddyer - no more K troubles like in May (9/10 BB/K rate for June), resulting in a .291/.385/.866 line with 13 RBI. Unfortunately, he'll likely miss at least half of July with his finger injury.

Scott Baker - finally at full strength after an injury-filled spring, Baker gave the Twins 5 starts, averaging 6 IP, 3.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, with a respectable 6.90 K/9. I look to him to lead the staff in the 2nd half.

Kevin Slowey - 3.55 ERA and 1.03 WHIP this month, and that's including the uncharacteristic pounding he took in Chicago. He may have a chance to approach 200 IP by year's end, despite missing a month early in the season.

Joe Nathan - blew a save in Milwaukee, but the Twins came back to win anyway. Otherwise untouchable, with an 0.82 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, and 11.45 K/9 with 8 saves for the month.

Jesse Crain - 13.1 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 14 K. I'd say he's pretty well recovered from shoulder surgery, and can be counted upon in the late innings once again.

Craig Breslow - I can't figure out why Cleveland let him go. He was unblemished in June, allowing just 5 base runners in 9 IP with 8 K.

Dennys Reyes - allowed a frightening HR to Grady Sizemore in Cleveland, the only HR he's allowed this season. Otherwise, he did his job (1.59 ERA, 0.83 WHIP in 6 IP), usually in well under 10 pitches.

Matt Guerrier - still walking too many guys for my taste (6 in 12.2 IP), but he rarely lets an inning get out of control.

Brian Bass - he was dented in a couple of the blow-out losses early on, but he's been very reliable of late. He walked just 3 in 18.1 IP, helping himself to a terrific 1.04 WHIP in June.

So Far, So Good

Nick Blackburn - he had a couple of rough outings this month, one in the Chicago series, and one last weekend when he couldn't get his sinker down. Generally, though, he's been as reliable a member of the rotation as anyone this season.

Glen Perkins - only 4 outs short of averaging a QS over his 6 appearances this month (34.2 IP, 18 ER). 17/5 K/BB rate over his last 4 starts.

Need To Pick It Up

Carlos Gomez - while the rest of the offense clicked, Gomez' numbers began a slow decline. His final June line of .236/.266/.309 with 28/4 K/BB ratio is not only terrible for a leadoff hitter - it's terrible for anybody.

Brendan Harris - 3/24 BB/K rate this month to go along with his .242/.270/.379 line. If that's all the better he's going to hit, I'd rather have Everett or Punto (or someone else) at SS.

Mike Lamb - only a handful of ABs for Lamb this month, and only a couple of hits. I don't know what his role might be going forward.

Craig Monroe - only 4 H for Monroe in 32 AB in June. 2 of the H were HR, and he cut his K rate down to 1/5.33 AB, but still not doing much vs. LHP, which is the only way he's going to get playing time in the 2nd half.

Livan Hernandez - averaged 5.2 IP, 6.62 ERA, 1.79 WHIP. And that's including 2 very good starts during the streak. I'm pretty sure Francisco Liriano can do better than that.

Boof Bonser - the K/9 is fantastic (11.57), but he allowed an unbelievable number of base-runners (2.14 WHIP). He did seem to get better as the month went along, but he's certainly a candidate to disappear when the bullpen drops to 6 members.