July Review

Twins' Record: 15-11

Overall Record: 58-46, 2nd in AL Central by 0.5 games

It's remarkable how neatly this month can be cut in half. From the 1st through the 15th, the Twins went 3-8, allowing 6.0 R/G while scoring 4.1. From the 16th - 31st, they were 12-3 - including a 7-0 run to end the month, with the pitching and defense improving to just 3.0 R/G while the offense put up 6.6. Most of that stretch coincided with the Twins facing the 4 worst teams in the AL (Cleveland, Baltimore, KC and Seattle) for 12 games. Good teams have to be able to take care of business against the bad teams, and the Twins handled them just fine.

For the month, the Twins led the league in all three triple slash categories. The upturn in offense was largely fueled by facing bad pitching, though Gavin Floyd, Felix Hernandez and Zach Greinke were among the pitchers the Twins were able to rough up. What was really amazing was that they were able to achieve such impressive offensive numbers without Justin Morneau, out since the 7th with a concussion, and Orlando Hudson, who missed the last week with a strained oblique. More than picking up the slack were Alexi Casilla, Danny Valencia and Delmon Young, who finally fulfilled his promise as a middle-of-the-order run producer. Joe Mauer has also surged since the All-Star Break.

The pitching turnaround more or less coincided with the belated decision to remove Nick Blackburn from the rotation. In 11 IP over his first 2 GS, Brian Duensing allowed just 3 ER on 12 H and 1 BB with 5 K. Francisco Liriano had the one clunker in Detroit right before the break, but went at least 7 IP in each of his other 4 GS, allowing a total of 3 ER in those games. The bullpen was bolstered by the addition of Matt Capps and the demotions of Alex Burnett and Blackburn.

The defense got back to sure-handedness after a terribly sloppy June. The Twins committed just 5 E in July, resulting in only 4 unearned runs. They remain comfortably in first place in the AL in each of those categories with 34 and 16, respectively. There were plenty of plays, especially early on, in which the defense failed to convert balls in play into outs but were not charged with errors. Obviously, the improvement in run prevention since the break suggests that those sorts of plays have been cleaned up along with the pitching.

The Twins play just 11 games at home in August, so they'll need to maintain at least the .500 ball they've played on the road to this point in order to stay even with the White Sox. Most importantly, they've got 6 games head-to-head with the Sox. If they can keep winning 2 of 3, as they have in the first 3 series this year, they have a great chance of putting themselves back in the lead as they head into September.

This month I'll be looking at hitters with at least 25 PA and pitchers with either 9 appearances or 3 GS:

Getting It Done

Delmon Young - The bad news is, he only drew 2 BB in 112 PA. The good news? When you hit .434/.455/.736 with 6 HR and 30 RBI in 26 games, it's probably better that you swing away.

Joe Mauer - I knew there was an MVP in there somewhere, trying to get loose. Mauer cranked his OPS up to .962 and doubled his HR total.

Danny Valencia - .453/.508/.623 with 6 2B and, finally, a HR. For those who questioned his plate discipline, he had a 4/6 K/BB ratio. I think he's seen the last of Rochester.

Alexi Casilla - Filling in for the injured Hudson, Casilla turned the clock back to May of 2008, going 9 for 28 with 2 3B and 1 HR with a .355 OBP from the #2 spot.

Jason Repko - His performance took me back to the summer of 2006, when the Twins called up player after player from AAA, and they all raked for a while. Repko surpassed Casilla, going 9 for 27 with 2 2B and 2 HR.

Jim Thome - In his first month with regular playing time, Thome didn't disappoint, hitting .277/.397/.554 with 3 2B and 5 milestone setting HR.

Justin Morneau - Only 1 BB in his week of work, but 2 2B and 2 HR pushed the OPS to .945. I hope he can come back soon.

Michael Cuddyer - As he did when Morneau hit the DL last year, Cuddyer has picked it up at the plate (.883 OPS) while playing nearly flawlessly in the field.

JJ Hardy - Finally healthy, Hardy showed that he's got a good bat to go along with his excellent glove. He hit .351/.377/.486 with 5 2B, 3B, and his first HR since April.

Francisco Liriano - His BABIP, obscenely high in the first half, is finally starting to normalize. Even with that crappy start in Detroit, he had a 2.97 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 33/9 K/BB in 30.1 IP.

Carl Pavano - Start after start, he pitches deep into the game. It was a shock when he came out after 5 IP in KC. For the month, he averaged 7.1 IP/GS with a 2.91 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

Jesse Crain - Just about a perfect month for a reliever: 11.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 12 K. A couple months ago he looked like a possible DFA. Now he looks dominant.

Brian Duensing - The WHIP got a little high, but he kept the ball in the yard and his ERA under 2.00. That won't last now that he's in the rotation, but he only has to be better than Blackburn, so the bar hasn't been set too high.

Ron Mahay - Another good month, with just 2 ER allowed on 1 HR in 9 IP. Hopefully he's got 2 more good months left in him.

Jose Mijares - His ERA looks pedestrian next to those of some of his fellow relievers, but the K/BB (9/2) and WHIP (1.17) were excellent.

So Far, So Good

Orlando Hudson - He was swinging the bat about as well as he has all season, providing a .353 OBP from the #2 spot, when he went on the DL.

Kevin Slowey - Still not quite averaging 6.0 IP/GS, but the ERA (4.06), WHIP (1.16), HR/9 (0.9) and BB/9 (0.9) are pretty much where they need to be.

Need To Pick It Up

Jason Kubel - Only 5 XBH in 95 AB to go along with a .232 BA. 9 BB isn't bad, but 27 K kinda is.

Denard Span - The K/BB rate (8/10) is great, but his .245 BA kept the OBP down at .315, and that's not good enough for a leadoff hitter. Also 2 CS and a couple of pickoffs.

Drew Butera - I guess he's a really great catcher, because he can't hit a lick (.214/.207/.357).

Nick Punto - Regressed to the 2007 model: .226/.281/.264, and only 1/3 in SB attempts.

Scott Baker - Continuing his habit of pitching really well, except for that one bad inning. Only a few more H and BB than Slowey, but enough to make the results noticeably worse.

Jon Rauch - I'm guessing it was the 2.28 WHIP more than anything else that made the Twins look for a new closer.

Matt Guerrier - 9 IP, 12 H, 8 ER, HR, 4 BB, 2 K, and 3 losses. That's a pretty putrid month.

Nick Blackburn - Not as bad as this, though: 17.1 IP, 30 H, 19 ER, 5 HR, 3 BB, 5 K for a 9.87 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. 4-year contract or no, those numbers are going to get you sent to the minors.

July Review

Twins Record: 12-12
Overall Record: 52-51, 3rd in AL Central 2 games back

I return home from my month of travels to find our heroes more or less where I left them: hanging around the .500 mark, a couple of games out of first. It seems clear that a mediocre team will win the Central Division this year, and that last year's 89 wins would comfortably get the job done if anyone could get there. The Twins have to go 36-23 over the final two months just to match their 2008 win total. That would be a stretch of excellence unprecedented so far in 2009. Adding Orlando Cabrera may marginally upgrade their lineup - particularly if he can maintain some of the scorching hotness at the plate he had in July - but it's not suddenly going to turn this .500 team into a winner.

The offense isn't going to score as many runs as last year - that shouldn't surprise anyone. However, as I predicted, the regression in BA with RISP has been made up for somewhat by an increase in power. The Twins have already surpassed their meager HR total from 2008, and are currently on pace to score 780-ish runs, within the range of scoring they had in all of their competitive seasons under Ron Gardenhire. The acquisition of Cabrera somewhat cements the likelihood that the Twins will have a solid offensive season.

Unfortunately, they're also on pace to allow 780-ish runs, which would be by far the most of the Gardy era. In July, for the first time in a long while, the Twins' pitchers finished dead last in the AL in R, ERA, BA and, tellingly, K. The Twins' staff, and in particular the middle relievers, is now overwhelming composed of "Twins pitchers" - strike-throwers who pitch to contact. While that model has served the Twins well over this decade, it can be a weakness if, say, someone has a lapse of control, or a fielder overruns a foul pop. Those extra baserunners and swings can become fatal when you rely on converting balls in play into outs. Sometimes bloopers fall in, grounders trickle through, fly balls elude the grasp of even the fleetest outfielders. But a swing and a miss is always a swing and a miss.

No one is coming to the rescue of the pitching staff, especially now that Kevin Slowey is out for the balance of the season. They will all have to step up and put their poor July performances behind them. And there is some hope that this can be done. While the Twins were outscored 140-128 this month, the majority of that damage was done by the two best teams in the league, the Yankees and Angels. In 8 games against those two perennial contenders, the Twins went 1-7 and were outscored 55-37. In the balance of their schedule, the Twins went 11-5 and outscored their opponents 91-85. Other than 7 games with the Rangers and 4 with the Blue Jays, the bulk of the Twins' remaining schedule comes against mediocre or worse teams. As long as they can avoid any further once-in-a-generation collapses like they had in Oakland, that still gives them a reasonably good chance to finish on the happy side of .500 and, therefore, in contention for the AL Central title.

This month I'm grading hitters with at least 20 PA and pitchers with at least 10 IP.

Getting It Done

Justin Morneau - Once again, we find him on pace to hit 40 HR. He's got to keep it up - this pitching staff can't afford one of Morneau's typical late-season slumps.

Jason Kubel - Nearly matched Morneau's numbers in slightly fewer PA. Doesn't his contract look like a bargain now?

Joe Mauer - Another decline from the godly heights he ascended in May, but still fantastically productive and the best around at his position.

Denard Span - Every month, he delivers an OBP around .380, steals a few bases, and plays solid defense. What a luxury to have such consistency at the top of the lineup.

Delmon Young - .313/.343/.500 with a reasonable K/BB of 7/2 - that's what we were hoping for when he came to MN. Now if he could just keep that up for longer than 32 AB.

Matt Guerrier - The guy gives up one ER on 7 H and 1 BB in 16.1 IP, and it's a game-tying HR in the 8th inning of a game the Twins wind up losing. That's the kind of season they're having.

Joe Nathan - And Nathan finally blows his first save in 2 months, and that costs the Twins a win. This team doesn't have much margin for error...

Jose Mijares - The walks are a little high, but he didn't give up many hits and had 10 K in 12.1 IP, so it worked out just fine.

Anthony Swarzak - 3.50 ERA in 18 IP over 3 starts. Boy, does he need to find a way to keep that up!

So Far, So Good

Michael Cuddyer - Too many K this month, but an OPS around .800 with 6 HR is still not too bad.

Carlos Gomez - .250/.323/.411 isn't dynamite, but it shows real progress for Gomez, particularly the 13/5 K/BB rate.

Brian Buscher - Though he didn't manage any XBH, Buscher hit .321 for the month with an OBP over .400. He'll get regular playing time at Rochester for a month before undoubtedly joining the expanded roster in September.

Scott Baker - An ERA under 4.50 and nearly a K/IP are huge improvements for Baker. If the Twins are going to get over the hump these last two months, he's going to have to step up the way he did down the stretch last year. That means regularly pitching into the 7th inning.

Brian Duensing - I don't know if he's ever going to do a lot better than a 4.95 ERA, but that spot start he gave the Twins against the White Sox was huge.

Need To Pick It Up

Joe Crede - He needs to hit for higher average, draw more walks, and hit for more power than he did in July. But most of all, he just needs to stay on the field.

Nick Punto - His 11/15 K/BB ratio made him reasonably valuable at the bottom of the lineup with a .337 OBP. But even he should be able to hit over .200.

Mike Redmond - No XBH, no BB. I love the guy, but Jose Morales should be getting those AB.

Brendan Harris - His .525 OPS for the month is a big reason why OC is on the team now.

Alexi Casilla - Like Punto, he did some good at the bottom of the lineup by drawing enough BB for a .315 OBP and going 5/5 in SB. Do that while hitting over .200 and maybe we've got something.

Francisco Liriano - 22/9 K/BB ratio, 8.37 K/9, not bad. It was the 6 HR in 23.2 IP that killed him (and the Twins) this month.

Nick Blackburn - This was bound to happen, and why I thought the Twins should have traded him at the All-Star Break. He pitched poorly enough for the Twins to lose two games on the recent road trip in which they scored 5 or more runs. With Slowey out, it's a good thing he wasn't traded, but he needs to be a 3 ER in 7 IP starter for the rest of the season for the Twins to contend.

Bobby Keppel - That sparkling start evaporated pretty quickly this month as Keppel walked 8 while striking out just 5 and was on the mound for some of the Twins' most difficult innings this month.

Glen Perkins - Remember back in April, when Perkins was briefly among the league leaders in IP and ERA? He'd better figure it out in a hurry, or the Twins are going to be throwing away every 5th game.

RA Dickey - OK, that's one bad month after three pretty good ones. Let's see where he takes it from here.

July Review

Twins Record: 15-10
Overall Record: 60-48, 2nd in AL Central by 0.5 games

(I'm a few days behind, but let's pretend the Cleveland series hasn't happened yet, and the Twins have just come off their 3-1 series win over the White Sox.)

The Twins finished their 3rd straight month with 15 or more wins, especially impressive since there were only 25 games in July. The only real setbacks came in 2 road series vs. the AL East titans: the Red Sox and Yankees each swept the Twins, accounting for their only series losses of the month. Disappointing, but it's much more important to win the games against your division rivals, and the Twins really delivered there. In 16 games vs. Detroit, Cleveland and Chicago, the Twins went 13-3, outplaying the White Sox by 2 games to pull nearly even in the standings.

Offensively, the thing that struck me the most was that the Twins finished 2nd in the league in OBP at .361, just .001 behind Texas. What an incredible turnaround from the team that reached base just over 30% of the time in April. 59 doubles, 5 triples and 19 homers helped the Twins to a 7th place finish in SLG% at .441, their best split of the season in that category. Denard Span was a big help filling in for Michael Cuddyer, and should find himself remaining at the top of the lineup even when Cuddy returns in August.

The pitching staff was in the middle of the pack in runs allowed and ERA. As with June, most of the damage was done in a handful of games on the road: 50 of the 116 runs the Twins allowed in July came in the 6 losses against the Red Sox and Yankees. 66 runs allowed in the remaining 19 games comes out to about 3.5 per game - definitely an amount that the Twins' steadily improving offense can overcome. My greatest concern with the pitching staff (other than Livan Hernandez) is the bullpen bridge between the starters and Joe Nathan. The other relievers allowed 37 ER in 54.2 IP for a 6.09 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. This did not prompt management to make any moves before the deadline, so the Twins will have to hope that someone in the bullpen will step up down the stretch (or that the starters will all go 8 innings).

The defense got back to the standards Twins fans are used to. The team committed just 12 errors over the 25 games, a rate that would have them among the league leaders in team defense had they played that way all season. 4 of the 12 errors came in the awful Yankees series; no errors were committed during the crucial 4-game set vs. the White Sox. Not only did they make the plays they were supposed to - they made a ton of plays they shouldn't have, taking away numerous hits and extra bases. Span was a huge help with his CF instincts in RF. With Alexi Casilla injured and Brendan Harris back at SS, I worry that August will not go as well.

Getting It Done

Joe Nathan - allowed just 8 baserunners and 1 R in his 11 IP, with 12 K. Plus, he threw a perfect inning in the All-Star game. More save situations, please!

Nick Blackburn - despite a low strikeout rate, Blackburn came through with a WHIP just under 1.00 for the month, and allowed only 8 ER in 29.1 IP. He only got 1 W for his trouble, thanks to a shaky bullpen and slow-starting offense in his starts. He'd be a prominent ROY candidate if he were getting more Wins.

Scott Baker - Baker averaged 6.5 IP over his 6 July starts, with a 1.00 WHIP and 3.46 ERA, and nearly a K/IP (37 K in 39 IP). Francisco Liriano may surpass him by season's end, but for now, he's undeniably the ace of the staff.

Glen Perkins - Perkins also averaged over 6 IP/start in July, and kept his ERA under 4.00 with a 1.26 WHIP. Overall, his best month of the season so far, and a terrific contribution from a 4th/5th starter.

Justin Morneau - .360/.473/.708. He got his HR total back up to 6 and racked up 20+ RBI for the 4th straight month while drawing by far his most walks of the year. Plus, he took home the HR derby trophy and scored the winning run in the All-Star game. Once again looking like an MVP.

Denard Span - proving that his performance in Rochester was not a fluke, Span took over for Cuddyer and put up a .912 OPS for the month while making several plays in RF that Cuddy wouldn't have come within 10 feet of. I sure wish Span had been with the team all season.

Delmon Young - Young continues to improve, posting his best month of the season in terms of BA (.330), OBP (.359) and RBI (15). His K/BB rate was the worst of the season, however, so there's still some work to do there.

Joe Mauer - the average slipped a bit in July, but there were plenty of walks (16) and a season-high in RBI (16), so things still look plenty good for the All-Star catcher.

Nick Punto - in his first full month as a starter, Punto partied like it was 2006, batting .319/.359/.458 with a HR and 11 RBI. He also played sensational defense at short (especially compared to Harris).

Brendan Harris - I won't likely stop disparaging Harris' middle infield defense, but an .811 OPS with 13 RBI makes up for a lot. His 13/7 K/BB rate was his best since May. I like him better platooning at 3rd, but it's not a perfect world.

So Far, So Good

Craig Breslow - not great numbers by any means (4.05 ERA, 1.50 WHIP). But from the least used member of the bullpen, I'll take it.

Matt Guerrier - terrific 1.03 WHIP and 16 K in 12.2 IP, but the 6 ER he allowed were in crucial situations, costing the Twins a couple of wins. He just needs to be a little better in order to hold down the 8th inning job.

Jesse Crain - his overall line for July isn't too good (4.66 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 7 K in 9.2 IP), but most of the damage was done in the Yankees series. I've been writing that one off as par for the course, so if we throw out that outing (0.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, BB), we're left with a pretty nice 1.93 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

Alexi Casilla - the .718 OPS is nothing too special for a second baseman, but I loved his range and speed on the bases. I'll definitely miss what he brings to the lineup while he's out with his thumb injury.

Brain Buscher - the average (.278) and OBP (.316) came down a bunch from June (.360/.370/.440), but the SLG% stayed strong (.444), and he knocked in 12 RBI in platoon duty. His throwing in the infield makes me nervous sometimes, but he's been solid at 3B otherwise.

Mike Redmond - we're used to a little bit better from Redmond than .278/.300/.278. But remember, he's the backup catcher, and most teams have to put up with a lot less.

Need to Pick It Up

Kevin Slowey - Slowey made just 4 starts in July, and he suffered through a bad inning in 3 of them. The other start was a CG shutout. In August, let's have more of the good starts than the bad.

Livan Hernandez - yes, he averaged nearly 6 IP over his 5 starts, but the 6.44 ERA and 1.74 WHIP were hardly worth it. I sure am glad he's gone.

Dennys Reyes - in 9 appearances, Reyes amassed just 4 IP, so any little thing is going to drag him down. He's basically asked to get one or 2 batters, and he failed to do so in 4 of his 9 appearances.

Brian Bass - 10 appearances, 10.2 IP, 8 ER, 16 H, 4 BB, 6 K. That's a 6.75 ERA and 1.87 WHIP. Those numbers remind me of Livan, and that's not a good thing.

Boof Bonser - 12 K in 11 IP - that's good! But then there's the 15 H, the 12 ER, the 3 HR, the 4 BB...

Jason Kubel - .271/.343/.424, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 15/7 K/BB. Not bad, but Kubel can do better.

Mike Lamb - Lamb didn't get a lot of playing time in July, and his .609 OPS for the month didn't make me feel like I was missing much.

Carlos Gomez - .220/.256/.268, 18/3 K/BB, 0/1 SB. Finally, he was taken out of the leadoff spot. He still plays spectacular CF, but I'm not sure that will be enough to keep him in the lineup when Cuddyer comes back.

Craig Monroe - after he hit under .200 for the second straight month, the Twins finally made the sensible decision to cut ties with Monroe. He finished his tenure with the Twins with a .449 OPS vs. LHP.