Patience and Perseverance

Twins 6, Tigers 2
Twins 14, Tigers 10 (13 innings)
Twins 6, Tigers 5

At last, a proper Dome stand. After going 2-2, 4-3 and 3-3 to open the season, the Twins were able to win 5 of 6 against Seattle and Detroit, and came within 2 innings of 6-0.

I will remember the first play of Tuesday night's game as the moment when I finally gave up on Delmon Young. It's possible to tolerate his absence of XBH and plate discipline while he's hitting close to .300, but not when he's also failing to make basic plays in the OF, like reading and catching Curtis Granderson's leadoff liner that sailed over his head for a 2B. Bert Blyleven charitably talked about how easy it is to lose the ball in the lights, but I don't think that's what happened. I think Young just misjudged it. Because he's a bad fielder. And he's not getting any better.

You think you've got a migraine, Delmon? Try watching yourself play. The Twins have a ton of OF between the Majors and AAA who can strike out 5 times as often as they walk and hit for minimal power. But most of them can at least catch the ball, and any of them would be more deserving of regular playing time than Young is right now. Take your time with your family this week, Delmon.

Fortunately, Slowey was able to pitch through that "hit" and another charged to him when Matt Tolbert exuberantly cut in front of Nick Punto on a chopper over the mound. Without those, he allowed only 6 H and 2 BB in 6 IP. The 2 BB doubled his season high, which I think was just an indication that plate umpire Ed Rapuano had way too tight of a zone.

That cut both ways, though, and the Twins took advantage of it by drawing another 7 BB against the Tigers' pitchers. The Twins have done well so far against Armando Galarraga. He's one of those pitchers who doesn't actually throw many strikes, but rather hopes that the movement of his pitches on the margins will induce swings out of the zone. If a hitter comes to the plate with the mentality that they're going to take a couple of strikes, they will usually find themselves ahead in the count, especially if the ump is conservative. Once there, they can pick out a pitch to drive.

The difference between a fly to the wall in LF and a HR can be as little as a foot or two - less than 1% of the total distance from home plate. Joe Mauer has that extra 1% this year, and because of it he's already hit nearly as many HR (4) in 35 AB as he had in his first 300 AB (5) last season. He would have had 5, in fact, had LF Clete Thomas not pulled his first-inning drive back onto the field. Mauer simply hit the ball harder in his next AB, getting the ball to nearly the same spot too fast for Thomas to make a leap.

Wednesday night's marathon was directly caused by plate umpire Paul Schrieber's even tighter strike zone. After one trip through the order (during which Glen Perkins needed to throw just 24 pitches), the Tigers must have noticed that Schrieber wasn't calling anything on the corners, so why were they swinging so early in the count? Perkins, who had walked just 8 batters in his first 6 starts, suddenly walked the bases loaded, where 2 runs could come in on a 2-out bouncer up the middle. (A better throw to the plate from Matt Tolbert, who short-hopped Mike Redmond, might have ended the inning with only one run scoring, saving us all a lot of trouble.) In the 5th, Granderson led off with a BB, stole 2nd, and eventually scored on a WP.

The bullpen has to burst into flames at least once every series, and this was the night. Luis Ayala couldn't retire the first 2 batters of the 7th, so in came Matt Guerrier, and Miguel Cabrera immediately took him deep to put the Tigers ahead. To their credit, the rest of the staff managed to put up zeroes until the 13th, when poor Jesse Crain was duped into balking by a feinted SB attempt by Granderson from 3B just as Crain was beginning his windup.

I said that the offense would have to carry the Twins through this next stretch of games. Every time the pitchers put the team behind, there was the offense to answer. 7 more BB. A couple of SF. A 2-run 3B from Denard Span after the Tigers had taken the lead in the top of the 6th. A 2-run, PH HR from Jason Kubel to tie the game in the 8th. With the Tigers' 'pen beleaguered from 2 straight short starts, Jim Leyland was forced to ride Brandon Lyon to the end of the game, though it would end on his 60th pitch.

I questioned whether giving up Span to put PR Nick Punto into scoring position for Matt Tolbert was a wise move, but Tolbert promptly delivered the game-tying single. 2 more BB filled the sacks for Joe Crede, who smashed a hanging slider into the LF seats for an emphatic, walk-off comeback win.

With Justin Verlander in the midst of a hot streak and both bullpens decimated, the game plan in the finale had to be to get as many innings as possible out of Scott Baker while making Verlander throw as many pitches as possible. Baker delivered by facing the minimum through 5 IP, but the 6th started with a broken-bat bloop single and a hit-and-run single to put runners at the corners with nobody out. Baker struck out the next man and got Granderson to pop up, but couldn't escape the jam when the next pitch was lined just over the glove of Jason Kubel in LF. Luckily, it hopped the fence for a ground-rule double, allowing only one run to score. Unluckily, Magglio Ordonez' grounder sneaked into CF scoring 2 more. Then Cabrera whacked another ground-rule double, and Clete Thomas went down to ground a shin-high curveball into CF for 2 more runs.

Suddenly down 5-0, and with Verlander striking out everyone in sight, it looked like the game was over. But Verlander was already approaching 100 pitches, and though he set his career high for K to start the 7th, Brian Buscher lined a single and Nick Punto drew a walk. With Verlander at 122 pitches and a succession of LH batters coming up, Leyland went to LOOGY Bobby Seay. Span greeted him with a single to load the bases, and Tolbert walked, forcing in a run. Joe Mauer grounded into an RBI FC. Justin Morneau pulled the first pitch into RF for an RBI single, then Jason Kubel raked a ground-rule 2B to right-center to bring the Twins within 1. Zach Miner came in, walked Michael Cuddyer, then gave up a bloop single to Crede to put the Twins ahead.

Craig Breslow earned his first win in his best appearance of the year: 1.2 scoreless IP with 0 BB. Guerrier and Nathan got the final 4 outs, and the Twins at last won a day game.

The selectiveness the Twins showed over this home stand will serve them well as they face the Yankees and White Sox on the road. They might need to keep scoring 6 R/G to be successful. I'm encouraged - things have to go better than they went at the old Yankee Stadium, right?

Welcome Back, Crede

Twins 12, White Sox 5
Nothing but good news from Chicago tonight:

Apart from the HR, I'm not sure the Twins swung the bats a whole lot better tonight than they did yesterday. Where everything seemed to find a Mariner glove on Thursday, everything slipped through a hole tonight. This was especially true with RISP, where the Twins were able to amass 7 H, if I'm not mistaken, including 5 straight in a mad-cap, 7-run 7th that put the game away.

The Twins got the perfect outing from R.A. Dickey: good enough to keep the team in the game for 5 IP, but not so good that they can't justify sending him down to AAA on Wednesday. The excellent control he had exhibited all spring abandoned him in the adverse weather conditions on the South Side. I have my suspicions that that was what the Twins' brass had intended all along - if they really wanted to put Dickey in position to succeed they would have arranged things so that he could have started one of the 4 games vs. the Mariners in the controlled environment of the Dome.

The 7th inning blitz enabled the Twins to ride Brian Duensing for 3 innings, saving the better members of the bullpen for the rest of the series. Had Duensing not grazed Josh Fields with a breaking ball in front of Carlos Quentin's HR, he might have escaped his Major League debut with a nice ERA. As it was, the WHIP was fine, and he's left-handed, so I'm sure he'll stick around. Humber had another solid inning to close out the game. 9 IP from the three weakest pitchers on the staff, and it was ultimately a pretty comfortable win. Thank you, run support!

Every Twins starter reached base at least once. Jose Morales had a great night at the plate, 2 for 3 with 2 BB, and his out was a screaming liner to 2nd. Delmon Young finally got a hit, a 2-run single to break the game open in the 7th. Denard Span, Alexi Casilla and Nick Punto combined to go 8 for 16 with a BB, 4 R and 4 RBI - attack of the piranhas! Justin Morneau drove in a runner in 4 different PA, including his 2nd HR.

But perhaps the most satisfying event of the evening was Joe Crede's first AB. After receiving a nice pre-game video tribute and a standing ovation when he was announced, he homered to put the Twins up 2-0. Take that, Sox fans!

The only negative note came from the defense. The Twins had played their first 4 games without committing an error, but they made 2 tonight, both on dropped fly balls. I suppose it's fitting that the first E of the season belongs to Young, by far the shakiest fielder among the regulars. The other goes to Morales. Neither one of those guys is going to have too many innings in the field.

Minor League Notes
Kevin Mulvey pitched 4 good innings before losing it in the 5th with 2 BB, a HBP and single. Jose Mijares finished the game with 2 scoreless innings, allowing 1 H and 0 BB with 2 K. Most importantly, Scott Baker cruised through 7 IP for A+ Fort Myers, allowing 1 R on 5 H and 1 BB with 3 K. He should be ready to start for the Twins on Wednesday.

Signs of Life

We're about halfway through spring training, a time when the sample sizes are beginning to get large enough that you'd like to start to see some signs that the players are going to be able to perform. So far, I've been very pleased with most of the Twins' returning players, particularly Carlos Gomez (.333/.400/.815, 3 HR, 5/3 K/BB in 27 AB), Delmon Young (.414/.452/.621, 3 2B, HR in 29 AB), Alexi Casilla (.387/.424/.484, 3 2B, 1/2 K/BB) and Jesse Crain (6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 6 K including the WBC). There are just a handful of guys on last year's roster who were beginning to worry me coming into today's game:

Joe Mauer - hasn't done anything on the field
Denard Span - 3 for 31 with no XBH
Joe Crede - 2 for 24 with no XBH
Nick Punto - 1 for 10 for the Twins and 1 for 12 with 2 BB in the WBC
Mike Redmond - 4 for 20 with 1 XBH
Matt Tolbert - 4 for 32 with no XBH

With the Crede signing likely relegating Brendan Harris to a bench IF role, and Mauer's balky back perhaps necessitating placing a 3rd catcher on the roster, Tolbert's spot is by no means guaranteed, so his struggles don't trouble me too much. However, that also means that Crede and Redmond had better be ready to do some hitting, or the Twins' lineup isn't going to be very deep.

So it was most encouraging to see Redmond, Crede and Span all drill XBH today, combining to go 6 for 8 with 2 R and 3 RBI. This was Redmond's second day in a row with a double, nearly matching his XBH total from all of 2008 (OK, he actually had 6 XBH in 2008, but you get the point). At this stage, it seems like the best case scenario that Mauer would get more frequent days off early in the season, so it's critical that Redmond delivers closer to his 2005-2007 performance, at least in April.

Span and Crede each managed to more than double their Grapefruit League total bases. Between them, they hit for the cycle (guess which one had the triple). Hopefully their numbers will continue to improve over the next week or so.

Philip Humber and Jason Jones both pitched well enough to keep themselves in the running for the last bullpen spot.

An Upgrade at Third Base?

The Twins will hold a press conference Sunday morning to announce the signing of All-Star 3rd baseman Joe Crede. I've always been fine with the Buscher/Harris platoon at 3rd, figuring that they'd combine for an .800 or better OPS if allowed to face opposite-handed pitchers, but playing obviously subpar defense. I certainly didn't feel that any of the available players this offseason were worth trading good players or signing to big, multi-year contracts. While surveying that field back in November, I had this to say:

As for the free agents, Crede is the best choice. He's been hampered by injuries the last 2 seasons, and is therefore likely to take a 1-2 year deal for reasonable money in order to try and raise his value for his next contract while he's still in his low 30s. If he could repeat his 2006 numbers (.283/.323/.506, 30 HR), the Twins would have the bat they're looking for, while also improving themselves defensively. If he performs closer to his career average, they're still getting good pop from their #8 hitter. But I'd definitely keep Buscher around in case Crede gets hurt again.

Despite demonic agent Scott Boras' best efforts to get Crede a $7 million guaranteed contract, the scenario I foresaw has played out. As this winter's glacial free agent market unfolded, it became clear that the teams that jumped in early ended up spending vastly more than they needed to (see: Raul Ibanez). Bill Smith is to be commended for sticking to his guns throughout the Twins' lengthy negotiations with Boras. By wisely assessing that the Buscher/Harris option was as good a temporary solution as anything else out there, the Twins kept themselves in a position to walk away from unreasonable demands.

The rough details of the contract illustrate a deal that is perfect for the Twins. Crede is guaranteed only $2.5 million, less than the Twins paid to Mike Lamb last year (and this year, for that matter). If Crede stays in the lineup for 525 PA, he'll receive $7 million - still a bargain for a veteran slugger who plays good defense. Crede has every incentive to produce, not only to earn as much money as he can this year, but to prove that he's durable enough and productive enough to merit an inflated contract next offseason. The Twins can wish him the best as they make room for the likely arrival of Danny Valencia some time in 2010, with some combination of Buscher/Harris/Luke Hughes briefly holding down the fort until then.

This move will ripple down the Twins' depth chart. Harris will surely become the Twins' primary bench IF, though his fielding isn't quite as good as that of Matt Tolbert. With 3 RHB on the bench in most games (Harris, Mike Redmond and either Delmon Young or Carlos Gomez), Buscher stands a pretty good chance of earning the final bench spot. He'll be the one to spell Morneau at 1B on the rare days Justin comes in from the field, and there's already talk of trying Buscher out at some other IF/OF positions this spring to increase his versatility. The odd man out will likely be Tolbert, although Gardy has signaled that the Twins might be inclined to come north with only 11 pitchers. That's always been the best idea, but they were handcuffing themselves by wanting to keep both Philip Humber and Boof Bonser in the bullpen. With Bonser now potentially facing some DL time with his shoulder soreness, that dilemma could be clearing itself up.

Fans should temper their expectations for what Crede will bring to the lineup, and not just because he was only able to play 144 games over the last 2 seasons. Despite the devastation he wrought on the Twins last year (.400/.429/1.050 with 7 HR and 17 RBI), Crede is just a .257/.306/.447 career hitter. That OBP is not much better than that of Carlos Gomez. It isn't that Crede strikes out too much (about once every 7 AB), he just gets under the ball a lot. That helps him hit a HR every 20 AB or so, but it also results in a lot of popups. His power numbers may not translate perfectly in the spacious LF at the Metrodome. Though his K/BB rate is much better vs. LHP (31/30 over the last 3 years, as compared to 96/38 vs. RHP), he's actually hit RHP much better recently (.276/.314/.495 compared to .224/.299/.375 vs. LHP, again from 2006-2008). In light of that, it might make more sense to give Crede days off against southpaws in favor of Harris, who is at .295/.360/.440 vs. LHP for his career, rather than subbing Buscher vs. RHP.

Because of his limitations as a hitter, it still makes sense to use Michael Cuddyer (.268/.344/.441) in between Morneau and Jason Kubel. The difference in career SLG% is minimal, and Cuddyer's significant edge in OBP will help sustain more rallies. Crede should still get plenty of chances to cap big innings from the 7th spot, where he typically hit in Chicago. If Delmon Young proves to be a regular and can consistently perform at the level he did from June through the end of the 2008 season, I'd even slot him ahead of Crede at #7 (although Crede isn't likely to hit into as many DP).

The one thing the Twins should be able to count on from a healthy Crede is above-average defense. Even if he doesn't hit as well as we'd all like, that piece of his game should give him some consistent value, especially from the bottom of the order. He and Punto, while not necessarily getting on base a whole lot, should make for a very strong left side of the infield. In fact, the Twins infield defense as a whole should be much better than last year, when shaky fielding was as big a reason as any that the team narrowly failed to make the postseason.

He's not a savior, but Crede does add value to the 2009 Twins, especially at the price they were able to acquire him for. Though it took them nearly a week into spring training to do it, the Twins have finally fulfilled their offseason objectives, and are as well-positioned as any other team to compete for the AL Central title.