Senior Slide

Twins 2, Mets 5

Twins 6, Mets 0

Twins 0, Mets 6

The in-laws were in town this weekend, so I didn't get to take a close look at any of these games. They don't look to be too difficult to summarize, though. Other than the 1st inning against Johan Santana, the Twins didn't do any hitting with RISP. Other than Carl Pavano, the Twins' starting pitchers didn't execute their pitches in the middle innings, resulting in big crooked numbers and consecutive XBH. What else needs to be said?

The Mets have the 2nd best home record in the NL, so it would have been an upset had the Twins won the series. It's weird to look at the completed interleague schedule and find that the Twins finished just 8-10, though. With the 4 non-rival opponents so strong, the Twins really needed to take care of business against the Brewers, and that didn't happen.

Tonight, they begin a 3-game series against the Tigers, who find themselves just 0.5 games back in the standings. It's a must-win series for the Twins, and I think they'll be fine. I wish they'd done some shuffling with the rotation, though. Pavano has owned the Tigers in recent years and is almost a lock to keep the Twins in the game. He could have pitched on normal rest Friday and been set up to pitch the finale vs. Detroit on Wednesday. (And his shutout would have been enough for the Twins to win on Friday, while Slowey's 5-runs allowed still would have given the Twins an opportunity to win on Saturday.) Gardy wants to give Nick Blackburn one more chance to get his act together in this series, since he's performed so much better at Target Field this season. So, after Francisco Liriano goes tonight, they will be handing the balance of this critical series over to their 2 most inconsistent starters.

It looks as though we'll get our first look at the lineup with Michael Cuddyer at 3B, Jason Kubel in RF and Jim Thome at DH. Sounds like a lot of runs to me.

Notes:

• Delmon Young had been the Twins' most reliable run-producer in recent weeks, but went just 1-15 with 4 K over the last 4 games. The H was a 2-RBI 2B in the Twins' win. In the 3 losses he went 0-11, and the Twins scored just 2 R total.
• Danny Valencia got a start on Sunday and went 1-3 with a walk, lifting his OBP to .360. He hasn't been a game-changer at 3B, but he's not embarrassing himself, either.
• I've read some reports that the Mariners are interested in Wilson Ramos, Brian Duensing, and a low-level OF in exchange for Cliff Lee. I'd have an easier time parting with Duensing than Kevin Slowey for the long term, so that part suits me. If that unnamed OF is Brandon Roberts, sweet - do the deal. If it's someone higher up the prospect list, like Angel Morales or Joe Benson, then I'd hesitate. The Twins only have Cuddyer and Jason Kubel under contract through 2011, and Delmon Young under team control through 2012. They're going to need 2 new corner OF in the next 3 years, so I'd be loathe to give up anybody from A+ or above who projects to have a decent bat at those positions. Ben Revere has much less strategic value to the Twins' future than either of those guys, so I'd still prefer to see him included if that's what's needed to close the deal.

I Wish They All Could Be Interleague Games

With Sunday's win over St. Louis, the Twins completed their interleague schedule with a record of 12-6. It's the 7th time in Gardy's 8 seasons as manager that the Twins have had a winning record vs. the NL.

Part of that success can be attributed to the Twins playing a National League style of baseball, not relying on slugging to provide their offense as so many AL teams do. That's been part of the story in previous years, but not so much in 2009, as the Twins currently sit 10th in MLB in SLG% and 12th in HR.

Another part was that the Twins' weakness at DH meant that their offense wasn't drastically hurt when they went to NL parks. Typically, the Twins have employed a bench player at DH, unlike the many AL teams that use professional hitters who are seriously liabilities if they have to play in the field. So subtracting the DH from the lineup didn't hurt the Twins very much. But that is also not the case this year, as Jason Kubel is currently 2nd among regular DHs in OPS. Thankfully, he's at least as competent a LF as Delmon Young, so keeping his bat in the lineup didn't have a corresponding debit on the defensive side of the ledger.

Were they successful because they were playing weak competition? On the whole, the NL is weaker than the AL, but because the Twins had to play half of their schedule against the top 2 teams in the NL Central, the aggregate winning percentage of their interleague opponents came to .507. Could we expect a team that is 6 games under .500 vs. AL opponents to go sweeping through above average NL competition? In particular, could we expect a team that is 12 games under .500 vs. AL opponents on the road to go 6-3 in NL ballparks?

For me, the difference was that in the NL parks, the Twins were able to hide their weaknesses better. In the NL, each team fields a lineup of 8 (hopefully) competent hitters + the starting pitcher. In the AL, you get to use 9 good hitters. The Twins have 7: Denard Span, Brendan Harris, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Kubel, Michael Cuddyer and Joe Crede. And that's just when everybody's healthy, when Mauer is able to play consecutive days, etc. Against AL opponents, the Twins often have to face a lineup with 2 better players than they can field; in the NL, it's just one.

Denard Span was out for 5 of the Twins' 9 interleague road games, but he wasn't missed. That's because Carlos Gomez stepped up in his stead, going 7 for 16 with 5 R in the 4 games he started. Mauer only had to sit out one of those games; the Twins lost. Crede had to sit out one of those games; the Twins lost. Cuddyer had to sit out 2; the Twins lost one and won the other despite scoring only 2 R.

The best thing about the Twins playing in NL parks is that they don't have to put Delmon Young in the lineup. Of Twins hitters who have accumulated at least 50 PA this season, Young ranks dead last in WARP at -0.9. He doesn't just not help, he hurts. The 7 players I mentioned earlier are 1-7 in WARP, of course, and Gomez is 8th, at 0.7, thanks to his superhuman range in CF. It should be clear, then, that the best lineup the Twins can put on the field does not include Young, both in terms of offensive and defensive contributions.

NL rules enabled the Twins to do without their worst player this past week. Thanks to that, improved play from Gomez and Nick Punto, and the easier task the Twins' pitchers had facing other pitchers instead of DHs, turned the Twins from a bad road team into a good one. If only it were easier for Gardy to avoid his worst player in the AL