Draft Day

I had a good time at the draft today. Our league is scoring some unorthodox categories, and it was difficult to assess early on how many guys would be using ESPN's default rankings as their guide, and how many had wasted hours of their lives researching which players averaged the most assists/game over the last few seasons. (Like I did.) As it turned out, most were on the ESPN side, so I was able to get almost all of the guys I wanted. Unfortunately, I missed out on Russell Martin by 4 picks when someone over-exuberantly selected Joe Mauer early in the 6th round (I wasn't going to take him unless he fell to the 8th), starting a mini-run on catchers. I had hoped to take Martin, a serviceable backup like Chris Snyder (we're scoring defense), and then stash Matt Wieters on the bench until the Orioles are ready to start his service clock. I've got Snyder and Wieters, but that leaves me a catcher short at the moment.

I spent the draft at the home of my co-commissioner, Kenneth the Cards fan. I had my spreadsheets laid out on the dining room table while he did his work on a desktop + a laptop in the 2nd bedroom. My greatest satisfaction of the day was listening to him curse several times when I made my picks, depriving him of Carlos Beltran, Joey Devine, JJ Putz and Ricky Nolasco. There may have been others, it got to be a blur after awhile. Maybe that was because the draft lasted only about 2 hours for 25 rounds, and yet I managed to drink at least 5 beers while I was there. Hmm...

I got to see just a bit of the Twins game before we got started. Kevin Slowey continues to make me very happy. I thought Chris Carpenter looked very good - the Twins were rather fortunate to get a few runs off him early. But credit Carlos Gomez for looking to go the other way with a 2-out, 2-run double that ended up being the difference in the game. 2008 Gomez would have struck out feebly on 3 pitches (kinda like 2009 Gomez did in his first AB). As for Jose Mijares, can we just cut him already? Ugh.

There is an interview with Glen Perkins over at Baseball Prospectus that you might want to check out. Hopefully, he'll continue his effective spring tomorrow.

They're All Part of My Baseball Fantasy

My fantasy draft is complete. I got 20 of the 23 players I wanted for my team, the Sabrmetrosexuals. The three I didn't get (all pitchers, all taken at least 2 rounds earlier than expected by my astute friend, Kenneth) were Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Huston Street. Instead, I got JJ Putz, Phil Hughes, and Trevor Hoffman. Not a problem, really. Here is the team I designed to succeed in a league that scores OBP, SLB%, HR, RBI, E, IP, ERA, K, WHIP, and Saves:

C - Joe Mauer
1B - Travis Hafner
2B - Jose Vidro
SS - Carlos Guillen
3B - Ryan Braun
OF - Gary Sheffield, Hideki Matsui, Garrett Anderson
Utility - Jason Kubel
Bench - Kevin Youkilis, Placido Polanco, Evan Longoria, Jack Cust, Jason Varitek
SP - Johan Santana, Erik Bedard, Tim Lincecum, Javier Vazquez
RP - JJ Putz, Trevor Hoffman, Bobby Jenks
P - Phil Hughes, Rich Harden

Because this is a head-to-head league, the idea is to field a roster that is going to win at least 6 categories, no matter who I face. With only 8 teams in the league, everybody should be able to field a reasonably competitive team - if they're paying attention. Everybody's got a bunch of guys capable of hitting homers, driving in runs, racking up innings. Any given week, it's a crapshoot as to which guys will score - especially in the saves department. The trick is to find a category where you beat the other guy every time. Then, if you only get 4 other categories to break your way, you come out even. If 5 break your way, you're winning.

The category I decided to dominate is errors. The guy with the fewest total errors each week wins. The way to ensure that my team won't make errors, while still putting middle-of-the-order, HR/RBI/SLG% people out there, is to keep them away from high error positions, or, even better, keep them off the field entirely. Because Yahoo's fantasy baseball doesn't distinguish between DHs and regular position players, I could draft a DH and play him as whatever his "natural" position would be. Because Yahoo's positions and rankings were based on last year, I could draft someone to play last year's position, knowing he was much less likely to make errors in his new position.

I looked at the projected DHs for the 14 AL teams. There were 6 1Bs (Aubrey Huff, David Ortiz, Jim Thome, Hafner, Billy Butler and Frank Thomas), 7 OFs (Kubel, Sheffield, Matsui, Anderson, Cust, Cliff Floyd and Frank Catalonotto) and a 2B (Vidro). Because none of them steal a lot of bases, and a lot of them don't have impressive batting averages (2 factors Yahoo uses for its default rankings), the highest ranked was Ortiz at #17. Hafner was next, down at #41 or so thanks to his off year in 2007. Sheffield was #64. Only 3 of these players likely to go in the first 8 rounds!

The positions I couldn't fill with DHs were C, SS, and 3B. The left side of the infield is a great place to rack up errors. Luckily, Carlos Guillen is eligible to play fantasy shortstop, and Yahoo didn't even acknowledge that Ryan Braun is now projected to play LF for the Brewers. Mauer plays much better defense than Russell Martin or Victor Martinez.

My starting lineup consists of 6 DHs, a shortstop who will be making errors at the rate of a first baseman, a third baseman who will be making errors at the rate of an outfielder, and the best fielder of the high OBP catchers. I'll be very surprised if that lineup averages more than 1 error per week. It is loaded with heart-of-the-order guys. I should be able to hang with just about anybody in the HR/RBI/SLG% categories, while winning in errors week in and week out.

Meanwhile, I've got the 2 best strikeout pitchers in the majors in Santana and Bedard, both of whom have just moved to pitcher's parks. Vazquez, Lincecum, Hughes, and Harden all have the stuff to be the aces of their staffs. Any week Santana or Bedard happens to pitch 2 times, I've got a real strong shot at the K/IP/WHIP categories.

When I realized that I was going to draft DHs to fill 7 of my 14 position player slots, I thought, "Kenneth will surely be horrified!" After all, he's a National League guy. But by swapping the default fantasy categories of BA, Runs, and SBs for OBP, SLG%, and errors, he unwittingly made DHs the most valuable people in the draft. And I wanted no part of people like Jose Reyes or Chone Figgins - those guys don't hit many homers, don't drive in many runs, and they make errors.

We'll see how the season plays out - but I like my chances.

Fantasy Life

My buddy Kenneth (as crazy about the Cardinals as I am about the Twins) decided to start up a fantasy league for this season. He's set up an 8-team league on Yahoo with weekly head-to-head scoring. He didn't want to use the default fantasy categories, because he's enlightened enough to see the distortions inherent in some of those stats (like Wins and BA). He also wanted to rate players on their defense, in the hopes of creating value for some of the less impressive offensive players. But, since some of the members of the league are less stat-obsessed than others, he tried to keep things pretty basic. The categories he chose for our league are:

Position players: OBP, SLG%, HR, RBI, E

Pitchers: IP, ERA, WHIP, Ks, Saves

I've spent far too much time already contemplating which players I could draft to kick ass according to that scoring system. It's already been a lot of fun, and the draft isn't until next Sunday. The default draft rankings don't really apply, because they're based on the usual categories. I feel a little like Billy Beane in Moneyball: I'm looking for players with qualities that are undervalued by the rest of the guys in the league. I've got a good draft strategy put together - I'll discuss it next week (don't want to tip off the competition!).

While ranking the players myself, I realized that Kenneth probably didn't quite pick the categories as well as he'd hoped. For example, most of the guys who hit a lot of homers have a high slugging percentage and a lot of RBIs, and they get walked a lot. So he's created a system which favors middle-of-the-order boppers far more than speedy defenders. There are a huge number of stat categories that Yahoo will compile (though not the newer SABR things like Zone Rating). The process got me thinking about which 5 stats would favor the widest variety of baseball talents. We always hear about the 5 tools of baseball: hitting, power, speed, glove-work, and throwing arm. What would be the best way to set up a fantasy league around those tools? What 5 stats would include the widest variety of excellent pitchers?

For the first two, I think Kenneth hit the mark.

OBP is the best available measure of hitting ability. It favors players who not only hit for a high average (basically a measure of a batter's knack for hitting the ball hard enough for the fielders not to have time to make an out), but who draw a lot of walks (a measure of pitch recognition, plate discipline and, often, the ability to foul off tough pitches). While sluggers like David Ortiz led the majors in OBP last season, little guys like Chone Figgins and Reggie Willits were in the top 25, so it's a stat in which players of all sizes can excel.

Slugging percentage is the best available measure of power. Home runs could do this as well, but guys who hit a lot of home runs will also have high SLG%. Slugging values not just HRs, but also extra-base hits and BA at the same time. So a .264 hitter who smacks 40 HRs (Adam Dunn) can be out-slugged by a .322 hitter with only about half as many HRs (Chase Utley). Speedsters who can leg out triples can also score well in this category (Curtis Granderson finished just behind Dunn). SLG% works for more than just the big guys.

There doesn't seem to be an ideal category for speed - nobody's come up with a single stat that measures the ability to steal bases, cover ground in the field, score from first on a double, and beat out infield hits. Of the situations I just listed, infield hits would probably be the most telling over the course of a season, but since Yahoo doesn't compile those, I have to go with steals. SB% isn't as good a choice, because some players amass a good percentage by being sneaky, not fast. I think we can assume that, over the course of a season, fast players are going to attempt a lot of steals, and so will accumulate a lot of SBs. If their percentage is low, they just won't accumulate as many as they might have - buyer beware.

For glovework, I think fielding percentage would work better than errors. As I suggested earlier, I think Zone Rating would be best, but we're making due with what we've got. While fielding percentage is ignorant of a player's range (and dependent upon the good judgment of official scorers), it does, over the course of a season, generally reflect how likely a player is to field the ball cleanly and make a good throw. The players whose exceptional range puts them in position to suffer more errors will hopefully make up that value with their many stolen bases.

And for measuring arms, I choose Assists. This will do a good job of rewarding outfielders with strong, accurate arms, and catchers who throw out base stealers and field their position well. It may also make up for some of the troubles with fielding percentage by rewarding infielders who can get to more balls in the hole: more opportunities for errors, but also more assists.

For pitchers, I'd like to isolate their ability from factors like defense and ballpark as much as Yahoo's available stats will allow, while making middle-relievers as desirable as starters and closers. So my 5 scoring stats for pitchers would be:

IP: Indicates that a pitcher is durable and has the confidence of the manager.
Ks: A measure of the pitcher's stuff
BBs: A measure of the pitcher's control
HRs: Gotta keep it in the yard or you're in trouble!
ERA: The old standby. It's influenced by home park and quality of defense (and official scorer). But, over the course of a season, it's the best available stat for indicating how likely a pitcher is to keep their team in the game. Every pitcher is going to find himself in a jam; the good ones can get themselves out with little or no damage (one of the many reasons why Santana is making $20+ million/year and Kyle Lohse is currently unemployed).

By keeping saves out of it, teams in my fantasy league would have more incentive to draft Rafael Betancourt than Joe Borowski. As it should be.

Of course, it's easy for me to critique the league from where I'm sitting (the courch). Maybe I'll have to be the one to set it up next year.