Happy New Year!
I haven't been able to bring myself to create any entries based on the general lack of news the last week or so, but now enough little things have piled up that I can comment briefly on a few of them:
Same Old Vikings
No, the team that took the field last Sunday was not an improvement over the one we saw all season long. All the weaknesses that had hampered them throughout the year were on display:
Poor punt coverage
Sporadic offense
Insensible game management
Great defense - except for that one big play
I have never been as hard on Tavaris Jackson as most people. He didn't play well on Sunday, but neither did Adrian Peterson, Visanthe Shiancoe, Matt Birk, or Chris Kluwe, to name a few others. What is clear is that, at this point, Jackson isn't good enough to lead the team back from behind against one of the league's better defenses. The Vikes will probably never go deep into the playoffs until they get a guy like that - whether Jackson can still develop into such a QB I don't know.
The team achieved the minimum I had established for a successful season: go 10-6 and make the playoffs. They didn't need to do a lot more to have a better record, and had a pretty tough schedule outside of the division. Next year, the bar will be higher yet - with 4 games against the NFC West instead of the mighty NFC South, there's an opportunity to pick up a couple of wins. If they only do a better job of containing big plays next year, that should get them to 12-4 by itself.
I want to applaud the defense for their heroic effort this weekend. Not only did they keep Philadelphia out of the end zone (except for that one big play), they often did it with a short field behind them. They bailed their coaches out for their asinine decision to throw in the final minute of the 1st half, giving the Eagles one more possession before halftime. And they did it while playing most of the game without 4 of their starters (Pat Williams, Ray Edwards, EJ Henderson and Darrin Sharper). That group is still the core to build around next year.
However, they're starting to get a little long in the tooth. Williams, Sharper and Antoine Winfield are all on the unhappy side of 30. As key as they are to the success of the defense, it might be a good idea to start investing some premium draft picks in the guys who will be taking over for them in a couple of years. As great as it is having Chester Taylor as a backup, I think the Vikes could do just fine with a Mo Williams caliber RB in that role. I'd much rather see someone as good as Taylor at the TE and possession receiver position. If they could trade Taylor (a good RB) and Shiancoe (a decent TE) for a good TE and decent RB, that would probably be more valuable to the offense.
Carl Pohlad Passes
Twins owner Carl Pohlad passed away yesterday after a very long and fruitful life. When he bought the team 25 years ago, the Twins were adrift as an organization, averaging 79 wins over the 10 seasons following their playoff appearance in 1970, but never finishing higher than 3rd place. They fell off a competitive cliff in the early '80s, playing .395 ball from 1981-1983. The Pohlad owned Twins finished 1st or 2nd in 11 of 25 seasons, including 6 playoff appearances and 2 World Series championships. Though he was perennially criticized for his tight-fisted spending, he did enable the Twins to retain All-Stars Kent Hrbek, Brad Radke and Kirby Puckett for their entire careers, and allowed Bill Smith to make reasonable offers to Torii Hunter and Johan Santana last year.
For all the good he did for the franchise, he tried to kill it after the 2001 season. Thank goodness a judge was able to block contraction, or we would have missed out on 7 wonderful years of Twins baseball, plus the bright future in a new ballpark. Since the threat of contraction, the value of the Twins franchise has increased at a double-digit annual rate, thanks to a consistently competitive team and some superstars developed from within the system. Not only was contraction a short-sighted business decision, it was also utterly heartless. I understand that most baseball owners come from the business world, and I don't expect them to throw away their acumen once they enter the owners box. However, a baseball team isn't a bank - it is enmeshed with the self-image of the people who share its home. Don't buy a baseball team because you want to make money. Buy a baseball team because you're rich, you take pride in your home town and you want your team to represent that pride to the rest of the country.
The present business model that the Twins have in place looks to be sustainable, and the team plays in a weak enough division that they should be able to remain competitive despite a relatively constrained payroll. The type of baseball that the Twins have chosen to endorse - pitchers who throw strikes, strong defense and fundamentals - is a recipe for low-cost success. That's a credit to the ownership.
Ultimately, there's more to be grateful for from the Carl Pohlad era than to complain about. Whether his family assumes the reins or sells, the new owners have a terrific asset to enjoy for the foreseeable future. As a blogger, I have to mention that the silver lining of this loss is that I will no longer have to read comments from people bitching about how Pohlad never spends any money. Guess they'll have to find a new boogeyman.
The Tepid Stove
Setting aside the Yankees' 3-player, $400+ million spending spree, this year's free agents aren't getting nearly as much as they expected. Rafael Furcal signaled this with his 3-year, $30 million contract, which was somewhere around half the total value he was looking for. K-Rod smashed the season saves record and was rewarded with fewer years and dollars than Joe Nathan got last spring; the Angels replaced him with Brian Fuentes for 2 years, $17.5 million. Now, the Rays just signed Pat Burrell for 2 years, $16 million to be their DH.
Clearly, there are ample bargains out there, and the Twins are one of the few teams with some cap space to work with. So it's a bit disappointing that they haven't made more of this opportunity than re-signing Nick Punto. However, there are still several weeks left before spring training, and plenty of guys (particularly relief pitchers) who might be worth taking a very cheap chance on for next season.
The lack of activity suggests that Bill Smith has confidence that he can win with the same guys he had last year. I think last year's team is a contender, but it probably needs a little something extra to become a champion. The players who can make that little difference may never be so cheap again.
Showing posts with label Vikings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Vikings. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Monday, December 1, 2008
They Only Beat Themselves
The tremendous goal-line stand and subsequent 99-yard TD the Vikings put together in the 2nd quarter last night have the potential to be a defining moment in this heretofore disappointing season. We've seen this sort of thing before heading into December, and the Vikes have a way of blowing it, but you at least have to feel good about the way the defense is playing. The only scores they allowed in the game came on a 65-yard slant and scurry by Devin Hester and a 4-yard "drive" that followed a Gus Frerotte interception.
And that got me thinking. Since the NFL doesn't have the equivalent of MLB.TV, I haven't been able to follow the Vikes as closely as I'd like. But in the few games I have seen, it seems like all the TDs the defense allows come as the result of big plays, or a short field following a turnover, or a penalty. In other words, mistakes. The Vikings don't give up TDs because they get outplayed. They only seem to give up TDs when they screw up.
To test that theory, I reviewed the opponents' scoring drives from the first 12 games of this season. The Vikings have given up 29 TDs so far. 8 of them came with the defense on the sidelines (6 TDs have been given up by the special teams, costing the Vikings close divisional games at Chicago and Green Bay). Of the 21 TD drives allowed by the defense, 8 started in Vikings territory as the result of a turnover or poor kick coverage. That leaves 13 TDs in which the opposing offense didn't have a short field to work with in 12 games - pretty stout defense.
But furthermore, of those 13 long TD drives, 10 contained either a play of 25+ yards or a defensive penalty. While it is possible for a big play to be the result of an outstanding individual effort on the part of one or more offensive players, in most cases they are the result of blown coverage or bad tackling by the defense. This implies to me that the vast majority of the TD drives the Vikes' defense allows are more the result of their own mental lapses than of being inferior to their opponent. The baseball equivalent would be of a pitcher who has dominant stuff but loses the game when one bad pitch gets jacked out of the park (i.e. Scott Baker in the 1-0 loss to the Rangers this past July).
While it's frustrating that the Vikes have lost a bunch of games because of their own mistakes, it's also heartening to realize that their mediocre record is their own fault. Mistakes can be cleaned up, after all. There's nothing coaches and players can do to make up for inferior talent, which is not the Vikings problem. If they play their best, they can keep up with any team they've faced so far - even the ones they lost to.
And that got me thinking. Since the NFL doesn't have the equivalent of MLB.TV, I haven't been able to follow the Vikes as closely as I'd like. But in the few games I have seen, it seems like all the TDs the defense allows come as the result of big plays, or a short field following a turnover, or a penalty. In other words, mistakes. The Vikings don't give up TDs because they get outplayed. They only seem to give up TDs when they screw up.
To test that theory, I reviewed the opponents' scoring drives from the first 12 games of this season. The Vikings have given up 29 TDs so far. 8 of them came with the defense on the sidelines (6 TDs have been given up by the special teams, costing the Vikings close divisional games at Chicago and Green Bay). Of the 21 TD drives allowed by the defense, 8 started in Vikings territory as the result of a turnover or poor kick coverage. That leaves 13 TDs in which the opposing offense didn't have a short field to work with in 12 games - pretty stout defense.
But furthermore, of those 13 long TD drives, 10 contained either a play of 25+ yards or a defensive penalty. While it is possible for a big play to be the result of an outstanding individual effort on the part of one or more offensive players, in most cases they are the result of blown coverage or bad tackling by the defense. This implies to me that the vast majority of the TD drives the Vikes' defense allows are more the result of their own mental lapses than of being inferior to their opponent. The baseball equivalent would be of a pitcher who has dominant stuff but loses the game when one bad pitch gets jacked out of the park (i.e. Scott Baker in the 1-0 loss to the Rangers this past July).
While it's frustrating that the Vikes have lost a bunch of games because of their own mistakes, it's also heartening to realize that their mediocre record is their own fault. Mistakes can be cleaned up, after all. There's nothing coaches and players can do to make up for inferior talent, which is not the Vikings problem. If they play their best, they can keep up with any team they've faced so far - even the ones they lost to.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Birds of a Feather
Packers 24, Vikings 19
Looks like the Twins aren't the only team in town playing just badly enough to lose. Last night the Vikes had the edge in total yards, time of possession, 3rd & 4th down conversions, and committed fewer penalties for fewer yards than the Pack. Really, they played a very good game against a playoff team on the road. The only trouble was they gave up one huge passing play, one huge running play, and one huge special teams play. Each of those 3 plays led to one of the Packers' 3 TDs. I can forgive the passing one in the first half - the coverage was pretty good, and the receiver just made an outstanding athletic play to leap up bring the ball down. As for the other two, poor tackling, defenders out of position, over-pursuit that allowed cutbacks. Blecch.
The 4pm Pacific start time caused me to miss the first half, which may have been a good thing. My buddy Kenneth missed it all, following the play-by-play online. When he joined us just after the end of the game, he said, "Your QB is a mess." I replied, "He did alright." Then Kenneth's wife, Krysta, asked, "Then why did you wince every time he dropped back to pass?"
Touche.
Tavares Jackson definitely makes me uncomfortable. However, he had a much better 2nd half after getting fewer game speed reps in pre-season than we all would have liked. He led 3 long scoring drives, all of which should have resulted in TDs. The one that didn't was because Jackson's pass to the back of the end zone was broken up by one of his teammates. Even after the TE tipped the ball, the WR still made the catch, but was unable to quite get his second foot in bounds. If the Vikes could have stayed out of their own way there, they would have matched the Pack score-for-score in the game, and been tied in the final minutes.
I don't know that Jackson is capable of leading a winning drive in the closing minutes in hostile territory - that's certainly the time when he made his fatal mistake (his only INT of the game). But I was impressed with how well he hung in the pocket and delivered the ball accurately while absorbing hits, and how he was able to improvise a few times and use his legs to keep the drives moving. He wasn't as good as Aaron Rodgers, obviously, but Rodgers' performance is a bit overrated. That one bomb he threw counted for about 30% of his total yardage - other than that he averaged about 7 yards/completion. He wasn't asked to throw the ball down the field in an attempt to come back, and he wasn't able to sustain any drives in the 2nd half. If I were the Packers, I wouldn't be feeling too overconfident about the win - it was more that Vikings lost.
Looks like the Vikes have a pretty tough schedule this year. I don't expect things to get any easier for them - or for us fans.
Looks like the Twins aren't the only team in town playing just badly enough to lose. Last night the Vikes had the edge in total yards, time of possession, 3rd & 4th down conversions, and committed fewer penalties for fewer yards than the Pack. Really, they played a very good game against a playoff team on the road. The only trouble was they gave up one huge passing play, one huge running play, and one huge special teams play. Each of those 3 plays led to one of the Packers' 3 TDs. I can forgive the passing one in the first half - the coverage was pretty good, and the receiver just made an outstanding athletic play to leap up bring the ball down. As for the other two, poor tackling, defenders out of position, over-pursuit that allowed cutbacks. Blecch.
The 4pm Pacific start time caused me to miss the first half, which may have been a good thing. My buddy Kenneth missed it all, following the play-by-play online. When he joined us just after the end of the game, he said, "Your QB is a mess." I replied, "He did alright." Then Kenneth's wife, Krysta, asked, "Then why did you wince every time he dropped back to pass?"
Touche.
Tavares Jackson definitely makes me uncomfortable. However, he had a much better 2nd half after getting fewer game speed reps in pre-season than we all would have liked. He led 3 long scoring drives, all of which should have resulted in TDs. The one that didn't was because Jackson's pass to the back of the end zone was broken up by one of his teammates. Even after the TE tipped the ball, the WR still made the catch, but was unable to quite get his second foot in bounds. If the Vikes could have stayed out of their own way there, they would have matched the Pack score-for-score in the game, and been tied in the final minutes.
I don't know that Jackson is capable of leading a winning drive in the closing minutes in hostile territory - that's certainly the time when he made his fatal mistake (his only INT of the game). But I was impressed with how well he hung in the pocket and delivered the ball accurately while absorbing hits, and how he was able to improvise a few times and use his legs to keep the drives moving. He wasn't as good as Aaron Rodgers, obviously, but Rodgers' performance is a bit overrated. That one bomb he threw counted for about 30% of his total yardage - other than that he averaged about 7 yards/completion. He wasn't asked to throw the ball down the field in an attempt to come back, and he wasn't able to sustain any drives in the 2nd half. If I were the Packers, I wouldn't be feeling too overconfident about the win - it was more that Vikings lost.
Looks like the Vikes have a pretty tough schedule this year. I don't expect things to get any easier for them - or for us fans.
Monday, December 31, 2007
Ahh, Vikes...
Good to be back after a crazy Holiday season! My wife's family was in town for Christmas eve, and my parents and sister joined them on Christmas morning, when we informed them that we're expecting a baby on July 1, 2008! The news of Baby Fiscal '09 (my wife is an accountant) brought tears of joy and hugs - the highlight of an emotional week. I also had Lasik on the 22nd, in order to spend the last 2 grand of my health plan's Flex dollars, and very nearly had major knee reconstruction surgery on the 28th. I'm getting donated tissue, and it didn't quite match - we'll have to wait until January.
In the midst of all this, the Vikings took us on their typical emotional roller-coaster. How many times have they played just well enough to give us hope, before falling flat in the big game? So consistent - makes you proud to be a fan!
Obviously, a lot of the blame is going to be directed at Tarvaris Jackson, and much of it will be deserved. He should have cost us the Bears game, and did cost us the Redskins game, where solid play would have resulted in a playoff berth. However, he certainly played well enough to force overtime in the Denver game, and deserved to win it in regulation. After all, it's not his fault Chester fumbled at the pylon, or Troy Williamson dropped a sure long touchdown. Had Troy made that catch, Jackson's QB rating for the game likely would have been around 100 - a good game for sure!
The last three games may color the evaluation of Jackson too much. His overall record as a starter was 8-4. Even with his putrid performances against Chicago and the 'Skins, his total numbers over the last 7 games were pretty good:
120/184 (65.2%) for 1311 yards, 7 TDs, 7 INTs
for an average of:
17/26 for 187 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 89.8 avg QB rating
If Williamson hauls in that long pass on Sunday, his average yds/game is 197.4, and his average rating is solidly in the 90s. His .712 winning percentage over that stretch would be sufficient for at least an 11-win season over 16 games.
He was certainly uneven in his performance in 2007. He had four bad games (rating < 65) in which he went 1-3, four decent games (65 < rating > 90) in which he went 4-0, and four good games (rating > 90) in which he went 3-1. Hopefully, with a full season under his belt, he can turn 1-2 of the bad games into decent games, and 1-2 of the decent games into good games. Either way, with the running game/defense the Vikings have, he should be able to steer the team to 10-11 wins next season, especially if the Vikes make the right moves this off-season.
With the emergence of Adrian Peterson, the Vikes have two stud running backs. Personally, I think if Peterson gets 25-30 carries a game, he's going to rack up 100+ yards every time. Mewelde Moore can spell him for a few plays here and there. So Chester Taylor becomes expendable for the Vikes, but a very valuable trade item for some other team. I'd like to see the Vikes move him for a tight end of comparable ability/experience, or a high (20-50 overall) draft pick.
The two biggest weaknesses with the 2007 Vikes were pass offense and defense. At this point it looks like they'll be making the 19th overall pick in the 2008 draft. The latest Scout's Inc. prospect rankings on ESPN.com show lots of nice defensive players in that neighborhood: OLBs Keith Rivers (USC) and Dan Connor (Penn State), and CB Mike Jenkins (S. Florida). There are also two wide receivers around there in Limas Sweed (Texas) and Early Doucet III (LSU). Any of those guys would be good choices for the team's needs.
But I think the biggest upgrade the Vikes need to make is at tight end. With an offense so geared toward the run, it's essential that our starting TE be a downfield receiving threat in addition to a good blocker. With defensive coordinators scheming 9-man fronts against us the last few weeks, the running attack was stymied. The Vikes could burn that game plan by having a guy who could slip out of his block and pick up yards down field.
But, in 2007, the Vikes didn't get much production from the TE position. Shiancoe, Kleinsasser, Dugan, and Mills combined for 40 catches for 449 yards and 1 TD. That's a per/game average of 2.5 catches for 28 yards. In all the NFL, only Seattle, Arizona, Detroit and Cincinnati had less production from the TEs. Since WR also isn't a very strong position for the Vikes' offense, it's especially important to get some production out of the tight end.
There isn't a sure-fire 1st-round TE in this year's draft class, though John Carlson (Notre Dame), Fred Davis (USC) and Martin Rucker (Missouri) could all go by the end of the second. There are also some possible under-classmen who might declare for the draft. The Vikes should be able to pick up a quality player here, particularly if they trade Taylor for a draft pick.
Cheer up Vikings fans - the team is on an upswing, despite the short-comings in December. If the team can show the sort of improvement in 2008 they showed in 2007, they should be able to win 10-11 games and compete for the division title, or at least be in the mix for the wild card again.
Then we'll be all set up for disappointment in January!
In the midst of all this, the Vikings took us on their typical emotional roller-coaster. How many times have they played just well enough to give us hope, before falling flat in the big game? So consistent - makes you proud to be a fan!
Obviously, a lot of the blame is going to be directed at Tarvaris Jackson, and much of it will be deserved. He should have cost us the Bears game, and did cost us the Redskins game, where solid play would have resulted in a playoff berth. However, he certainly played well enough to force overtime in the Denver game, and deserved to win it in regulation. After all, it's not his fault Chester fumbled at the pylon, or Troy Williamson dropped a sure long touchdown. Had Troy made that catch, Jackson's QB rating for the game likely would have been around 100 - a good game for sure!
The last three games may color the evaluation of Jackson too much. His overall record as a starter was 8-4. Even with his putrid performances against Chicago and the 'Skins, his total numbers over the last 7 games were pretty good:
120/184 (65.2%) for 1311 yards, 7 TDs, 7 INTs
for an average of:
17/26 for 187 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 89.8 avg QB rating
If Williamson hauls in that long pass on Sunday, his average yds/game is 197.4, and his average rating is solidly in the 90s. His .712 winning percentage over that stretch would be sufficient for at least an 11-win season over 16 games.
He was certainly uneven in his performance in 2007. He had four bad games (rating < 65) in which he went 1-3, four decent games (65 < rating > 90) in which he went 4-0, and four good games (rating > 90) in which he went 3-1. Hopefully, with a full season under his belt, he can turn 1-2 of the bad games into decent games, and 1-2 of the decent games into good games. Either way, with the running game/defense the Vikings have, he should be able to steer the team to 10-11 wins next season, especially if the Vikes make the right moves this off-season.
With the emergence of Adrian Peterson, the Vikes have two stud running backs. Personally, I think if Peterson gets 25-30 carries a game, he's going to rack up 100+ yards every time. Mewelde Moore can spell him for a few plays here and there. So Chester Taylor becomes expendable for the Vikes, but a very valuable trade item for some other team. I'd like to see the Vikes move him for a tight end of comparable ability/experience, or a high (20-50 overall) draft pick.
The two biggest weaknesses with the 2007 Vikes were pass offense and defense. At this point it looks like they'll be making the 19th overall pick in the 2008 draft. The latest Scout's Inc. prospect rankings on ESPN.com show lots of nice defensive players in that neighborhood: OLBs Keith Rivers (USC) and Dan Connor (Penn State), and CB Mike Jenkins (S. Florida). There are also two wide receivers around there in Limas Sweed (Texas) and Early Doucet III (LSU). Any of those guys would be good choices for the team's needs.
But I think the biggest upgrade the Vikes need to make is at tight end. With an offense so geared toward the run, it's essential that our starting TE be a downfield receiving threat in addition to a good blocker. With defensive coordinators scheming 9-man fronts against us the last few weeks, the running attack was stymied. The Vikes could burn that game plan by having a guy who could slip out of his block and pick up yards down field.
But, in 2007, the Vikes didn't get much production from the TE position. Shiancoe, Kleinsasser, Dugan, and Mills combined for 40 catches for 449 yards and 1 TD. That's a per/game average of 2.5 catches for 28 yards. In all the NFL, only Seattle, Arizona, Detroit and Cincinnati had less production from the TEs. Since WR also isn't a very strong position for the Vikes' offense, it's especially important to get some production out of the tight end.
There isn't a sure-fire 1st-round TE in this year's draft class, though John Carlson (Notre Dame), Fred Davis (USC) and Martin Rucker (Missouri) could all go by the end of the second. There are also some possible under-classmen who might declare for the draft. The Vikes should be able to pick up a quality player here, particularly if they trade Taylor for a draft pick.
Cheer up Vikings fans - the team is on an upswing, despite the short-comings in December. If the team can show the sort of improvement in 2008 they showed in 2007, they should be able to win 10-11 games and compete for the division title, or at least be in the mix for the wild card again.
Then we'll be all set up for disappointment in January!
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