Arizona Prospects

Two items of note from just before Thanksgiving: The Arizona Fall League concluded its schedule, and Baseball America posted its annual ranking of the Twins' top 10 prospects. There's plenty of overlap between the two, as 3 of the farmhands on the BA list played in the AFL.

The Twins have tended to send less advanced prospects to the AFL than some other teams, and that was the case again this year. Of the 7 players the organization sent to the Peoria Saguaros, only Kyle Waldrop has played more than half a season above AA. This group was mostly comprised of guys who spent the majority of the year in New Britain, where they accumulated a shockingly bad 44-98 record (.310 winning percentage). It was more of the same for them this fall, as the Saguaros finished 9-22 for an even more dreadful .290 W%.

Individually, they were a mixed bag. Bear in mind that the average AFL batter hit .283/.356/.431, while the average pitcher had a 5.10 ERA and 1.57 WHIP.

Joe Benson, OF (#4)

Named the Twins' 2010 Minor League Player of the Year after hitting .259/.343/.538 between Fort Myers and New Britain with an organization-leading 27 HR in 123 games. BA rated him as the organization's best athlete. In addition to his power, he has good OF range and speed, especially for a corner guy, and he has a very strong arm. The knock on him right now is his high strikeout rate - he fanned in 30.7% of his AB during the regular season.

The Saguaros didn't give him much of a chance to show off his tools. He appeared in just 17 of the team's 31 games and barely made it to 60 PA. At first glance, his .236/.300/.400 line looks like a huge disappointment. It included just 1 HR, his K-rate remained high at 29%, and he drew only 3 BB. However, there is at least a suggestion that he made an adjustment over the course of the season:

First 9 games: 26 PA, .160/.192/.280, 3 2B, 0 HR, 0 BB, 8 K

Last 8 games: 34 PA, .300/.382/.500, 3 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 8 K

Small sample sizes both, but I'll keep my hopes up based on his eventual production. The Twins need Benson to have a good year at Rochester in 2011. Even if his K-rate holds at around 30%, if he can put up another OPS > .850 he'll be someone the they can count on in 2012. He's been added to the 40-man roster, and will be a call-up option should one of the corner guys get hurt. And he's the guy I'm hoping will be ready to take over for Michael Cuddyer after his contract expires next year. Benson has the ability to make us forget about Cuddy pretty quickly.

Ben Revere, OF (#5)

The Twins' Minor League Player of the Year from 2008 & 2009, Revere was added to the 40-man roster in September and got a cup of coffee with the Twins down the stretch. He has hit .300 or better at every level so far, though this year's .305 was a career low, as was his .371 OBP and .363 SLG%. Those numbers were only incrementally lower than his 2009 numbers from Fort Myers, but they seem to suggest that he's reaching his ceiling as a Juan Pierre-style slapper. His 50-SB speed and weak arm also bring Pierre to mind.

Unlike Benson, Revere got off to a fast start in the AFL. He was hitting .370 with 2 doubles and a triple through his first 18 games. But over his last 10 he went just 6 for 39 without an XBH, dropping his final line to a much less impressive .295/.358/.330. He stole 13 bases without being caught.

Revere strikes me as a poor man's Denard Span. The extra value he gives you in speed and batting average is negated by his lower IsoP and even weaker throwing arm. Add the fact that they're both left-handed, and I just can't see them in the OF together at the same time. Revere should remain at AAA for most of the season in case Span gets injured. Maybe he'll have some utility on the postseason roster as a PR should the Twins get that far again. But they should be looking to move him by this time next year. Somebody needs Revere to be their everyday leadoff man - just not the Twins.

Carlos Gutierrez, RHP (#10)

Since making his full-season debut in 2009, Gutierrez has split time as a starter and a reliever. The Twins seem to have plenty of capable young starters and a lot of questions in the bullpen right now, so the bullpen is likely where he'll end up. He's got a tremendous sinker and a more or less average strikeout rate. At the moment, control is his biggest problem, as he's walked over 3.7 batters per 9 innings in each of the last 2 seasons. That all adds up to some rather unimpressive WHIPs and ERAs at the upper levels.

He made 12 appearances in the AFL, all out of the 'pen. The good news: in 11 IP, he struck out 10, and induced 21 groundouts and only 1 fly out. The bad news: he walked 9, leading to an unseemly 2.00 WHIP and 6.55 ERA. He'll have to throw more strikes before the Twins can count on him.

David Bromberg, RHP

He didn't make BA's list, but Bromberg is in the bottom half of some other top 10 prospects lists. From 2007-2009 he was his league's strikeout leader. That string was broken this year, as he didn't quite make it to 6 K/9 at AA, but he rebounded well with 8.1 K/9 in 9 GS for the Red Wings. As he's moved up the organizational ladder, he's increasingly become a flyball pitcher, but that doesn't seem to be of any concern. He's kept his HR/9 down and would play half his schedule with the Twins at Target Field.

In the AFL, he made 6 starts, maxing out at 4.2 IP. He bookended his season with 2 excellent efforts (combined 8 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 11 K). Sandwiched in between them were 4 rough ones (combined 14.2 IP, 25 H, 15 ER, HR, 6 BB, 14 K). In Bromberg's defense, the H/9 numbers were so lousy for the entire Saguaros staff that one has to conclude that the regular defense was terrible. Overall, his peripherals were quite promising: 0.4 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 9.9 K/9. He'll begin next season back at Rochester, and will make a much more intriguing spot start option than Jeff Manship now that he's on the 40-man roster.

Chris Parmelee, OF/1B

The Twins' 1st-round pick from 2006 has been making a slow climb through the system. He repeated A- in 2008 and was briefly demoted to A+ in the middle of 2010. His game has been improving in some facets, however, as he's raised his BA and lowered his K rate over the last few seasons. What may be of some concern is the sudden drop in power - Parmelee hit half as many HR last season as we would have expected from his career averages.

He was repeating the AFL this year, too. He hit .339/.405/.477 with a 17/12 K/BB ratio, but with no HR, continuing the trends from the regular season. Those numbers are solidly above average for the league, though, so the Twins have to be pleased. Between Fort Myers, New Britain and Peoria, he combined to hit .295/.365/.415 with 38 2B, 5 3B, and 8 HR.

The Saguaros used him at first base, but he's logged a lot of time in the OF corners for the Twins' affiliates. His defense has improved, but it doesn't look as though he's going to be an asset in the field. My guess is that the Twins will start him in Rochester next spring and hope that he'll be able to maintain the high average and OBP while seeing just a few more balls fly over the fence. If Parmelee can pull that off, he'll make a nice minimum-wage replacement for Jason Kubel in 2012.

Tyler Robertson, LHP

Everyone was understandably excited about Robertson after 2007. At the age of 19, he picked apart the Midwest League, with a 2.29 ERA, .226 opponents' BA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, 10.8 K/9 and only 3 HR allowed in 102.1 IP. As a 6'5" lefty, there was a lot to dream on. But his velocity hasn't improved as he's filled out, and his numbers in all of the categories I listed above have been steadily eroding, even while he repeated A+ in 2009. I wasn't surprised to see him fall apart in the Eastern League, with a 5.41 ERA, .307 opponents' BA, 1.64 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9 and 17 HR allowed in 149.2 IP. Of the 4 pitchers the Twins' sent to the AFL, I expected the least from Robertson.

At first glance, his 4.50 ERA gives the impression that he was effective. But he allowed 14 R in his 14 IP, it's just that half of them were unearned. He still had a .327 opponents' BA, 1.71 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9, 5.8 K/9 and 2 HR allowed. Certainly no better than he faired over the summer. If there's anything positive to find in this performance, it's that, used entirely in relief by the Saguaros, Robertson faced a disproportionate number of lefties, and handled them to the tune of a .217 BAA, 1.05 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. So he may have a future as a LOOGY. If he can't figure out a way to contain right-handed hitters, that's the only MLB job he can hope for.

Kyle Waldrop, RHP

The Twins' 3rd 1st-round selection from 2004 (after Trevor Plouffe and Glen Perkins), Waldrop had his progression delayed by a 2008 shoulder surgery. Since his return, he's been used exclusively in the bullpen, and to good effect. In 178.1 IP as a reliever across 3 levels, he's got a 2.32 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and just 7 HR allowed thanks to a G/F rate over 2.3. His 2nd half at Rochester wasn't as impressive as his spring, but a lot of us were expecting him to have a crack at the Matt Guerrier role in 2011.

His AFL experience was a total disaster. His groundball rate remained excellent, so again, I have to cast some aspersions on what must have been a dreadful Saguaros IF. But still, he allowed 24 H in 12.1 IP, including 4 HR, and he walked 6 while striking out just 5. That resulted in a (gulp!) 16.05 ERA. Was he tired after throwing nearly 90 innings out of the 'pen during the regular season? Let's say he was tired. Anyway, his performance was so uninspiring that the Twins chose not to add him to the 40-man roster and nobody selected him in the Rule 5 draft. So he'll come to spring training with as much chance to earn a back-end bullpen spot as several other folks.

Also of Note:

It was at about this time last year that Francisco Liriano's Dominican Winter League numbers first caught my attention. This year's version (in a more subdued way) might be Deolis Guerra. Supposedly one of the premium pieces of the Johan Santana trade after posting a 2.53 ERA in 19 FSL starts in 2007, Guerra has been a mess since joining the Twins' organization. He's been very hittable, with spotty command, and was torched for 19 HR in 127.1 IP in 2010.

However, in his first 7 appearances in the Venezuelan Winter League, he's allowed just 11 ER on 31 H and only 1 HR in 29.2 IP with a stellar 25/3 K/BB ratio. That's a 3.34 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 0.9 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9. All of those are a huge step up from what he was able to do over the last year and a half at the upper levels, against what I would guess is fairly similar competition. It also comes with a vastly improved GB rate of 2.16/FB.

Guerra is still only 21 - almost 6 months younger than 2010 1st round pick Alex Wimmers - and he's already logged 165 IP at AA and 25 at AAA. I'll keep an eye on him. If he's able to maintain those numbers throughout the VWL, he'll come to spring training with a chance to make Rochester's rotation and reassert his relevance on the prospect lists.

The Fall Guys

Not a lot going on for the Twins right now, and I wouldn't expect much for awhile. They're probably wise to see how the free agent market shakes out now that it has been inundated with non-tenders. I'd still like to see something at 2B or 3B, at least for the short term, but that deal could conceivably wait until spring training, as it did with Crede last year.

Still, there is baseball going on all over the Caribbean, and several prominent members of the Twins organization are active there. But before I focus on those leagues, which are only just getting going, I should look at the results of the Arizona Fall League, which concluded its season last month.

The Twins sent 7 prospects to the AFL. Two things to keep in mind: while many teams send guys who are nearly MLB-ready, the Twins have elected to send much less advanced prospects the past couple of seasons. Of the 7, only Rene Tosoni had spent more than half a season above A-ball. So the Twins' players had a bigger adjustment to make than a lot of the other guys in the league. The other thing is that the AFL's numbers are grotesquely skewed in favor of the hitters. The average batter this fall hit .281/.361/.443 (about .040 points of OPS higher than the AL), while the average pitcher was flogged for a 5.35 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Understanding that context, here's how everybody did:

Chris Parmelee, 1B/OF .250/.337/.550
For me, his performance is the most outstanding. Just 21 years old, with no experience above A+ Fort Myers, Parmelee managed to more than hold his own. The BA was below average - typical of Parmelee's career so far. But he maintained his strong isolated discipline while showing far above average power. He'll start 2010 in AA, and presently projects to take over the DH position once Jason Kubel's contract expires after 2011.

Steve Singleton, 2B .289/.291/.500
As nice as it is to see plus power from a 2B, I find Singleton's performance to be pretty disheartening. In an environment in which the average hitter put up an .080 IsoD, he managed to draw just 1 BB in 79 PA. Really? Such an utter lack of patience can only be overcome by outstanding defense and/or speed, and Singleton didn't attempt a SB in the AFL while committing 5 E in 19 G. He'll probably go back to New Britain next year, but unless he figures out how to take a walk immediately, I don't know that he'll be able to rise much higher.

Rene Tosoni, OF .218/.310/.333
After a breakout campaign at New Britain, Tosoni brought some rather high expectations into the AFL, and he did not deliver. Still, Danny Valencia was lousy in the AFL last year, and it didn't hurt him come the following spring. Tosoni will be in the OF mix at AAA.

Alex Burnett, RP 3.38 ERA, 1.50 WHIP
A starter through the lower levels, the Twins decided that Burnett's rather small frame (6'0", 190 lbs.) wasn't going to hold up in that role, so they shifted him to the bullpen. He thrived there for 78 IP between A+ and AA, and continued to stand out in the AFL. His ERA was about 2 runs better than average, and he held opponents to a .162 BA, while keeping the ball in the yard (he was the only member of the Mesa team not to allow a HR). He's on the fast track now - I don't see why he wouldn't start 2010 at AAA.

Spencer Steedley, RP 4.50 ERA, 2.14 WHIP
An emerging LOOGY, Steedley's splits were as severe as could be in the AFL. That ghastly WHIP was almost entirely the result of his appearances vs. RH batters, who collected 12 H and 10 BB off him in just 6 IP, including both HR allowed. But he held lefties to a .143 average and 1.00 WHIP in 8 IP. He'll return to AA to start 2010, and, used properly, should be an effective reliever.

Mike McCardell, SP 7.27 ERA, 1.61 WHIP
McCardell was off to a pretty good start in the AFL before he got rocked in his 3rd GS. He complained of shoulder soreness and was shut down. He should begin next season in New Britain.

Steve Hirschfeld, SP 11.17 ERA, 1.96 WHIP
A standout performer at Fort Myers last season, Hirschfeld got lit up in just about every other start in the AFL. He had 10 K/9, however, so that's at least something to build on. He'll get his first taste of AA next spring.

Bonus!

Chris Province, RP 3.46 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
The player to be named later in the Boof Bonser trade, Province is a sinker-ball specialist who allowed just 3 HR in 79.2 IP in the Eastern League last year. He gave up 1 in 13 IP in the AFL, and actually allowed more flies than grounders, but held opposing hitters to a .200 BA and was very effective against lefties. He'll join AFL alums Burnett, Anthony Slama and Rob Delaney in what is suddenly a pretty intriguing Rochester bullpen.

Now, a few highlights from the Caribbean...

One of the most exciting developments there has been the play of C Wilson Ramos, ranked by many as the Twins' #3 prospect. His numbers in AA were good this year, but a couple of injuries limited him to just over 200 AB, and he didn't show very much patience (6 BB) or power (4 HR). He's up to 191 AB in Venezuela right now, hitting .346/.411/.597 with 20 BB and 11 HR. His winter league performance almost certainly means he'll begin 2010 in AAA. If the Twins can't re-sign Joe Mauer, he becomes the C of the future. If they can re-sign Mauer, do they really need a backup C this good? What kind of MI or SP could Ramos bring in a trade?

I was high on Dustin Martin after his AFL performance last year, but he hit just .254/.319/.351 with a 92/39 K/BB ratio in Rochester. So I was glad to see him carrying an OPS of around .900 with a nearly 1/1 K/BB rate for most of his time in the VWL. His patience tailed off at the end, as he struck out 9 times without a walk over his final 10 games, but his BA was .350 and he slugged .575 over that stretch, so I can't complain too much. Overall, he hit .298/.395/.477 with a 37/25 K/BB ratio. He still might be a decent option if Delmon Young disappoints again.

Francisco Liriano has headed to the Dominican Republic to try to work through the poor fastball command that ruined his 2009 season. Early returns are very good. Through his first 3 GS, spanning 11.2 IP, he has a 1.54 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and 17/2 K/BB ratio. I'll be following his exploits with great interest throughout the remainder of the winter.

Prospects for 2009

Earlier this week we got news of two big events on the prospect front. The Arizona Fall League wrapped up with the Phoenix Desert Dogs (the team the Twins' farmhands play for) winning their 5th straight championship, and Baseball America released its list of the top 10 Twins prospects. Last year, those same events centered around Nick Blackburn, who won the championship game of the AFL and received the #1 prospect ranking from BA. He went on to contribute greatly to the Twins' unexpected success in 2008. Will any of this year's crop have something to offer in 2009?

Baseball America's Top 10 Twins Prospects

#1 - Aaron Hicks - The 14th overall pick in this year's draft, Hicks had a terrific debut in rookie ball, hitting .318/.409/.491 with an excellent 28/32 BB/K ratio and 12/14 SB. Baseball America gave him top marks among Twins' prospects for plate discipline, athleticism, outfield defense and outfield arm. Certainly an exciting player to watch, but he's only just turned 19, so I think even a meteoric rise through the organization wouldn't see him in a Twins uniform until 2011.

#2 - Ben Revere - The Twins' first-round choice in 2007, Revere also had a stupendous 2008. He flirted with .400 for much of the season in Beloit before settling for .379/.433/.497 with a 27/31 BB/K ratio and 44/57 SB. As well as he's playing, the Twins don't seem to be in any hurry with him, so, like Hicks, I wouldn't expect to see him in MN for at least 3 more years.

#3 - Wilson Ramos - Joe Mauer's heir-apparent (unless they sign him to an extension right away), Ramos has been remarkably consistent through his first 3 professional seasons. In the Gulf Coast League, he hit .286/.339/.435, in Beloit he hit .291/.345/.438, and in Fort Myers he hit .288/.344/.434. He's got good pop and is an excellent defender. But, again, the Twins have been content to give him a full season at each level so far, meaning we can expect to see him in 2011.

#4 - Jose Mijares - An offseason auto accident broke Mijares' elbow, setting him back in 2008. He progressed through 4 levels as he regained his groove, including an impressive September call-up in which he allowed just 1 ER on 3 H in 10.1 IP. Overall for 2008 he had a 1.91 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 47 IP, with a 8.81 K/9. With Pat Neshek out and Dennys Reyes likely cut loose, Mijares would have to have a ghastly spring training to keep from making the team. If he's healthy, he should give the Twins 60-70 IP in 2009, and could be one of the keys to their season.

#5 - Danny Valencia - This is a pretty impressive place for a 19th-round pick to find himself. Valencia has earned his way up the prospect list by hitting .305/.361/.485 over 4 levels since he was drafted 2.5 years ago. His numbers took a hit when he was promoted to AA this summer - he hit .289/.334/.485 in 69 games in New Britain. He kept his slugging up with 10 HR, but his BB/K rate got way out of wack - before AA, it had been about 1/2, but it was about 1/4 in those 69 games. Not to worry. Valencia put up a similar .291/.332/.422 line with a 1/3 BB/K ratio in his first 61 games in Fort Myers, then blew up to .336/.402/.518 with about a 2/5 BB/K rate in his first 60 games there this year. That alone suggests to me that he will be spending at least the first 2 months of 2009 in New Britain.

#6 - Anthony Swarzak - He's landed somewhere in the #5-#7 range on this list for 5 straight years. Despite having his worst career ERA, WHIP, K/9 and HR/9 through 20 starts at New Britain, he was promoted to Rochester, where he allowed just 9 ER on 41 H over 45 IP in 7 starts (6.1 IP/start). His K/9 dropped even further, however, so he's got an adjustment to make. He made 40 starts at A+ and 34 at AA before advancing, so I'd be surprised if he turns up in a Twins uniform before September of next year.

#7 - Shooter Hunt - The 31st overall pick in this summer's draft (thanks to the departure of Torii Hunter - Hunt/Hunter!), Hunt demolished the competition in Rookie ball. In 19 IP, he allowed just 1 ER on 4 H and 6 BB with 34 K. After his promotion to Beloit he continued to put up nice numbers in most areas, averaging less than a hit and more than a strikeout per inning. But he screwed himself by walking 27 in 31.1 IP, resulting in an ugly 5.46 ERA. Control, you must learn control! He's at least 3 years off.

#8 - Kevin Mulvey - Good to see someone from the Santana trade on this list! Mulvey did OK at Rochester, but you'd like to see such a highly touted prospect put up better numbers, particularly considering the International League's tendency to favor pitchers. He had a slight increase in his walk rate over his 2007 at AA, but an alarming 4-fold increase in HR allowed in 2008. He's also got just 321 professional IP on his resume. Still, I suspect he'll get the first call if someone from the Twins' stretch-drive rotation gets hurt or falters next year.

#9 - Carlos Gutierrez - The Twins' 2nd first-round pick this summer (27th overall), Gutierrez already rates the organization's best fastball. At 25, he was quite old to be drafted, so the Twins dropped him straight into the Fort Myers bullpen. He pitched well in 16 appearances, allowing 6 ER on 23 H and 7 BB with 19 K in 25.2 IP. Now he's 26, so I'd bet that the Twins will continue to push him through the system. But even so, I doubt he'll be anything more than a September call-up in 2009.

#10 - Angel Morales - Like Adam Dunn with a better batting average, Morales had a monster year at Elizabethton, hitting .301/.413/.623 with 15 HR in just 54 games. But ugh, the strikeouts - 72 in just 183 ABs! That makes Carlos Gomez look like Paul Molitor. Morales just turned 19 last week, so, unlike Gutierrez, I predict that the Twins will take their sweet time with him and hope that he's ready to take on MLB pitching by 2012 or so.

Some promising players, but only Mijares is likely to have a significant impact in 2009.

Arizona Fall League

The AFL, unlike most of the Twins' minor leagues, greatly favors the hitters. Over its 38 game season, the average hitting line was .293/.369/.473, and the average pitcher put up a 5.79 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Bear that context in mind as we look at the performance of these prospects.

Rob Delaney - Even for a guy in some pitcher-friendly environments, Delaney's performance over the past 2 seasons has been stupendous. He began 2008 in Fort Myers, where he had a 1.42 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 31.2 IP, with a sensational 34/4 K/BB ratio. At midsummer he was promoted to New Britain and was even better, sporting a 1.05 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 34.1 IP with a 38/7 K/BB rate. His AFL numbers weren't anywhere close to that (including the championship game 13 IP, 16 H, 6 BB, 11 K, 4.85 ERA, 1.69 WHIP), but were still a little better than league average. Also, Delaney improved as the season went on, allowing just 1 ER on 7 H and 1 BB with 7 K in 7.1 IP over his final 6 appearances, suggesting that he may have made a quick adjustment to the higher level of competition. Between that and his otherworldly performance at New Britain, I'd be surprised if Delaney doesn't start the season in Rochester next spring. He could be someone the Twins look to if the bullpen is struggling midseason.

Tim Lahey - Control has been Lahey's problem throughout his professional career, and this fall was no exception. Though he managed to avoid giving up many runs (3.97 ERA thanks in part to allowing 0 HR in 11.1 IP - a rarity in the AFL), he had a lousy 8/6 K/BB rate. While his AFL performance is encouraging enough to earn him a good look in spring training, there's nothing in his track record to suggest that he'll be able to beat out Boof Bonser or Philip Humber for a middle relief spot with the Twins in 2009 - most likely he'll repeat at Rochester.

Jeff Manship - The Twins should be pleased with Manship's progress since he was drafted in the 14th round in 2006. After a solid half-season in Fort Myers (13 GS, 78.2 IP, 2.86 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 63/20 K/BB and 0 HR allowed!), Manship was promoted to New Britain. There, in almost the same number of innings (76.2) he essentially maintained his K/BB ratio (62/24), but allowed 22 more H - including 8 HR. His AFL numbers indicate improvement over his AA performance: a better than average 5.01 ERA, 1 HR allowed in 32.1 IP and an excellent 29/8 K/BB ratio. Still, I'm guessing he'll begin 2009 back in New Britain, and won't have an impact with the Twins until 2010 at the earliest.

Anthony Slama - It's not clear why Delaney was promoted this summer while Slama remained in Fort Myers, when Slama's numbers were arguably even more fantastic: 71 IP, 43 H, 110/24 K/BB, 1.01 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 0 HR allowed(!). Considering he had never faced anything above A+ hitters, it's perhaps not surprising that his first 12 appearances against AA and AAA studs didn't go so well. His AFL line of 10 IP, 14 H, 9 ER, 7 BB and 10 K (though still 0 HR) shows that there's an adjustment he needs to make. He'll be 25 in January, so it wouldn't be a bad idea to get him moving through the system. He'll begin 2009 no lower than AA, and if he has another season like 2008, he'll likely get a call-up to the Twins in September.

Dustin Martin - Of the 6 players the Twins collected from the Mets' farm system in the Luis Castillo and Johan Santana trades, Martin had the strongest 2008. His .290/.355/.447 was well above average for the Eastern League - his only glaring negative was a high strikeout rate (125 in 510 AB). That trend continued in the AFL, where he hit .314/.397/.449, but struck out 37 times in 118 AB. He should wind up at Rochester next year, where he'll need to work on making contact a little more consistently. If he can do that, he might move ahead of Gomez on the depth chart before too long, and certainly will be considered should an OF go down during the season.

Steve Tolleson - He was overshadowed by the spectacular numbers Luke Hughes put up, but Tolleson also had a terrific offensive season for the Rock Cats. He hit .300/.382/.466 with a solid 44/74 BB/K ratio. He was even better in the AFL, batting .383/.449/.543 with a 11/16 BB/K rate. He will certainly join Hughes in the Redwings' IF to start 2009, and could be called up should the Twins need IF depth as the season moves along.

Danny Valencia - One of the few hitters who failed to take advantage of the happy offensive conditions in the AFL, Valencia hit just .209/.254/.270 with a 7/25 BB/K rate. Since that line is reminiscent of Nick Punto's 2007, needless to say, Valencia's AFL experience did nothing to accelerate his progress through the Twins' system. I'd guess he's still at least 2 years away from a shot with the Twins.

So, despite some exciting prospect news earlier in the week, the only help the Twins are likely to get from those guys next year is in the bullpen or as injury fill-ins. I'll look at some other prospects who might be a bit closer to having an impact in the coming days.