Sense from Center

...And Slams Closed

2012-01-24T16:40:00.000-08:00

In the baseball transaction equivalent of Jerry Maguire's proposal to Dorothy Boyd (somewhere Rod Tidwell is nodding in amazement and saying, "Well, this definitely was another way to go"), the Tigers found a permanent solution to a temporary problem. Well, technically not permanent, but 9 years is a long time in baseball. Prince Fielder will be filling the hole in the lineup opened by Victor Martinez' knee injury.

Several smart people have correctly explained how this will probably be a long-term liability for Detroit. But for 2012, they have done what seemed impossible a few days ago: upgraded over Martinez. While everything I said last week about regression and their unathletic defense and baserunning is still true (perhaps even more so), Fielder is easily going to be worth 4+ wins over whoever else they might have run out there. They are now a better team than they were last October, 90 wins is suddenly easily within their grasp, and the remainder of the AL Central is far back in the rearview mirror.

In this light, the Twins' conservative offseason strategy is vindicated. They would still do well to add one more high-upside veteran RHP on a 1-year deal, though. It should be done with the idea that he could be dealt in July or August for someone who can add longer-term value to the organization. Even a riskier guy health-wise, like Brad Lidge or Michael Wuertz, makes a lot of sense under the circumstances.

Though they aren't likely be much better than .500 as presently constituted, the Twins are well-positioned to improve themselves over the next two seasons. They are fielding a starting lineup of competent veterans. They finally have some impact players at AAA who could push their way onto the big league roster by September. Should they find themselves in contention, they will be in position to deal for help, thanks to some payroll headroom and a good crop of highly regarded prospects at the lower levels. Whatever they lose in-season could largely be replaced by the 5 top-75 selections they'll make in next June's draft. And, outside of the M&M boys, they have relatively modest payroll commitments for 2013, giving them flexibility to do even more smart shopping next winter.

The Tigers are in the driver's seat for 2012. The Twins have avoided committing too many resources to what will likely be a 2nd-place campaign. 2013 is when things will really get interesting in the division.

The Door Opens

2012-01-17T14:13:00.000-08:00

The Tigers won the AL Central handily last year. Their 95-67 record was 15 games better than the 2nd-place Indians. No other team in the division finished over .500. Though they have largely stood pat this offseason, the remainder of the division is so far behind the talent Detroit is returning that there has been little controversy in picking them as the favorites to repeat in 2012.

I wouldn't pick them to win 90+ games again, though. Their .318 team BABIP was the best in the Majors by a good margin, exceeding the league average by .024. Players from Miguel Cabrera to Alex Avila to Jhonny Peralta were well over their career norms in this regard. That factor alone makes a healthy regression in their offensive output likely. Throw in the fact that their Closer, Jose Valverde, didn't blow a save in 49 tries (5 blown saves would have been a very good percentage) - a feat he will almost certainly fail to repeat this year - and it's easy to see their win total dropping into the upper 80s.

But with the White Sox (mostly) rebuilding, the Indians short on resources, the Royals still probably a year away and the Twins facing a slew of injury concerns, the Tigers appeared to be the only member of the AL Central for whom 86+ wins was within reach.

Until Tuesday, when we learned that Victor Martinez will likely be out for the season with a torn ACL suffered during offseason workouts. V-Mart was a middle-of-the-order force for the Tigers last year, batting .330/.380/.470 with 103 RBIs. A switch-hitter, he had an .830+ OPS from both sides of the plate. At this point in the offseason, he will be difficult to replace.

There are FA DHs still available, but most of them are in the decline phase of their careers. None of Carlos Pena, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Vladimir Guerrero or Manny Ramirez could be expected to match what Martinez gave the Tigers last year. If I were them, I'd go for Pena, who crushes righties and is at least a good defender at 1B. He could push Cabrera to DH vs. RHP, and they would come out ahead in those match-ups. But they would be much more vulnerable vs. LHP.

Depending on who they get to fill their DH slot, the loss of Martinez probably will cost the Tigers another couple of wins. While their pitching should remain good, they now figure to be a below-average team at the plate, on the bases and in the field. Suddenly, 84-86 wins is looking like the best-case scenario for them. (That was the pace they were on at the trading deadline last summer, by the way, before finishing a ridiculous 39-16 over the last two months.)

Given the precarious health of several of their core players, the Twins have understandably been cautious about overcommitting themselves to the 2012 campaign. They've spent about $21M to bring in 6 FA, mostly on modest, short-term deals. They've replaced their own FA losses more or less equally, and added depth in a couple of areas. Plus, they were unlucky last year, in everything from health to outcomes of batted balls. They should score a lot more runs and allow a lot fewer this year. The improvements may even be enough to bring their RS and RA into balance, which would result in about a .500 team. Respectable, but not a contender. But with $100M already spent to get the team to that level, and the market value of a marginal win nearly $5M, the Twins obviously can't afford to add the extra talent needed to get them to the 86-88 win level.

Now the injury to Martinez changes this calculus. The Tigers are nearly within reach, and one or two more judicious moves could elevate the Twins to the level of true contenders in the division. Look at it this way: if the Twins were 4 games back in the standings at the end of July, we'd expect them to make a move or two to take on payroll and go for the title. Surely, they are much more likely to make up that difference over 162 games than 55. They should spend the money now.

Roy Oswalt is there for the taking, for less than $10M. RH setup men like Dan Wheeler or Todd Coffey could be scooped up for less than $2M. The Twins could pick up Oswalt plus another reliever, kick Nick Blackburn into the bullpen as a long man/6th starter, and proceed into the season with a good pitching staff, all while spending a few million dollars less than they did on players at the start of last season. If things don't work out, they'd have a bunch of quality veterans they could deal in July and August while saving a bit of cash. If things do work out, it would be worth the extra expense, wouldn't it?

Alternately, the Twins could deal from their surplus of A-ball prospects to upgrade the rotation. At least half of those players won't amount to anything, and whoever is dealt can be more or less replaced with one of the Twins' 5 early picks in this June's draft. The Astros may be willing to eat some salary on Wandy Rodriguez or Brett Myers. Either one would be a huge upgrade over Blackburn.

In 2011, everything broke right for the Tigers and wrong for the Twins. A month before spring training, it's already clear that fortunes will be different in 2012. A little flexibility from the Twins now could position them to take advantage of some better luck in the coming season.

Stopping Short

2012-01-13T23:13:00.000-08:00

It was a busy month of December for Terry Ryan. He re-signed Matt Capps, signed Josh Willingham and Jason Marquis, parted ways with Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Jose Mijares and Kevin Slowey, and brought in a crap-ton of NRIs for spring training. I think Brandon Warne of Fangraphs sums up the moves pretty well.

I'm optimistic that Capps will be better in 2012, but not to the point that I would prefer him to, say, Octavio Dotel, $1.25M and a supplemental draft pick. And I think Marquis has a good chance of being a solid back-end starter. As Aaron Gleeman pointed out, you're not going to do much better for $3M. Now, with about $100M committed, 39 guys on the roster and another 25 coming to Fort Myers next month, it appears that the Twins are done acquiring players. That's a shame, because though they've added some good pieces, this team doesn't look like it's going to be good enough to compete. And the $13M cut between the 2011 opening day payroll and the 2012 projection really seems to be holding them back.

The difference between Marquis' and Roy Oswalt's salaries looks like it will be around $5M. Both pitchers have durability questions they need to answer this year. But Marquis' upside is no better than #4 starter, whereas a healthy Oswalt is an ace. The 2010 versions of Oswalt, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker and Carl Pavano would make for a pretty strong rotation. With Marquis filling it out instead, league average seems like the best we can hope for. For $5M extra, the Twins could have had a good rotation instead of a mediocre one.

The lineup (if healthy) looks solid 1-7. Denard Span, Jamey Carroll, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit should get on base a lot and make opposing pitchers work. Danny Valencia should bounce back a bit after an usually poor BABIP showing in 2011. But the bottom 2 slots are going to be filled by Ben Revere and Alexi Casilla or Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Added to Span and Carroll, that's one more piranha than I'd want in the lineup. They'll score more runs than last year, but maybe not enough. For $1-2M, they could have picked up a Reed Johnson or Andruw Jones, a veteran with some pop who could have held the position down and given Revere some more PAs in Rochester.

The bullpen will have Capps, Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing, and a bunch of guys who weren't good enough to pitch in the Majors all season last year. There are still quite a few veterans who will be taking cheap, 1-year deals in the coming weeks. It would be great if the Twins could snag one or two of them - it would only cost them a couple million. That would be the difference between a reliable unit and one that could turn into another horror show.

It appears that the bench will consist of Drew Butera, Trevor Plouffe, Nishioka and Luke Hughes. Plouffe and Nishioka might still have some upside, but Hughes didn't show anything last year, and Butera is hopeless. By the start of spring training, there will be at least a dozen catchers accepting backup roles for less than $2M. Virtually anybody who hits the waiver wire would be better than Butera.

Ryan did a pretty good job with the limited payroll space he was given. The Twins will be far less exposed depth-wise in 2012, and that should ensure that they finish the year with a respectable record. Perhaps they're maintaining some flexibility to add payroll by trading for name players during the season. Maybe they need to reserve some money for signing the 5 high draft picks they'll be making. Or maybe they just don't want to invest too much in a hopeless cause - if Mauer, Morneau and Span don't return to health, and if Liriano can't figure out how to throw strike one, no amount of FA signings is going to save the season. But quality veterans signed to 1-year deals are assets valuable to contending teams, and an Oswalt or Jones might have earned a system-bolstering prospect at the trade deadline.

The moves the Twins have made give them a chance to be respectable, but not much of a chance to contend. A payroll more like last year's could have greatly improved their chances. I'm not sure there would have been much harm in trying.

November Notes

2011-12-01T14:47:00.000-08:00

Twins sign IF Jamey Carroll for 2-years, $6.75M

I felt the Twins ought to add the best available FA defender to bolster their middle infield. That would have been Clint Barmes. However, there are a lot of things Carroll does better than Barmes:

Get on base (.356 career OBP vs. .302)
Steal bases (26/32 over the last 3 seasons vs. 18/31)
Hit RHP (.695 career OPS vs. .671)
Catch the ball (.987 career fielding % at SS and .991 at 2B vs. .971 and .982)
Sign for 7 figures ($6.75M over 2 years vs. $10.5M)

Barmes has a big edge in range, though, and that would have been very valuable to the Twins' ground ball pitchers. And, though he's aged gracefully the last couple of years, Carroll is getting a bit long in the tooth. If he degrades physically, this is a big overpay. And if Tsuyoshi Nishioka gets his act together and Alexi Casilla puts together a full, productive season, this is a lot to pay for a utility guy. But Carroll is just about an ideal #2 hitter to place between (the hopefully healthy) Denard Span and Joe Mauer. His lack of power won't be a problem if the big boys hit behind him. Considering that several of the other MIs on the FA market are getting even more money, it doesn't look too bad. It's certainly a move that improves the team.

Twins sign C/RF/1B Ryan Doumit for 1-year, $3M.

I was hoping that a bat-first backup C would be better at, you know, catching. Doumit is more of an insurance policy against prolonged absences from Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. But such a thing was absolutely necessary, and Doumit's positional flexibility makes him a good fit. In good times, he'll DH or play RF while hitting about as well as Jason Kubel, all for only $3M. Pretty good signing.

Texas Rangers sign CL Joe Nathan for 2-years, $14.75M

This bummed me out. Texas gave Nathan just about exactly the deal I wanted the Twins to offer him. It sounds as though Nathan's decision wasn't so much a matter of money as preferring to play for the Rangers, a team that is at the peak of its competitiveness right now. Basically, in what could potentially be the last contract of his career, he figured he had a better chance at a ring with them. It's an endorsement of their organization, but it's also a vote of no confidence in the Twins. This is part of why I thought it was important for the front office to make one or two impact moves (probably trades) very early in the offseason: it would have showed the free agents around the league that this team is serious about competing in 2012. Carroll and Doumit, though nice pieces, don't send that message clearly enough. Based on the present state of the Twins' and Rangers' rosters, Nathan made the right decision.

Oh well. We'll show him.

The new Collective Bargaining Agreement

There were big changes with free agency and the draft, most of which will benefit the Twins, especially this year. The Elias ranking system was abolished, replaced by a more limited system in which only a handful of superstars will cost a signing team a 1st-round pick (with only the bottom 10 finishers from the previous season exempted). Effectively, this means that Michael Cuddyer will not cost a new team a draft pick, while still providing the Twins the same compensation. It also means that Matt Capps will provide the Twins a supplemental pick even if they don't offer him arbitration. Letting Cuddyer, Capps and Kubel walk, added to the #2 draft position the Twins "earned" with their abominable 2011 season, should net the Twins something like 6 of the top 50-60 picks in next summer's draft, including 2 of the top 30. If I'm Terry Ryan, I'm not even talking to those guys right now.

The draftees have been utterly stripped of leverage by a draft tax so severe I can't imagine many teams will dare to go over slot. And the signing deadline was moved up to mid-July. So now the Twins can confidently select the best talent available with each pick, offer them slot, and send them to the minors for at least 6 weeks. An influx of so much top young talent should make it a little easier for the Twins to part with some bankable prospects while attempting to bolster the major league roster through trades.

The Arizona Fall League

Apart from the ascendant Brian Dozier, the Twins didn't appear to be sending much help to the Mesa Solar Sox. Aaron Hicks was the big name in the contingent, but he has yet to have an impressive full season in A-ball. Brett Jacobsen, Bruce Pugh and Dakota Watts lived up to my low expectations, but the remainder of the group used the opportunity to raise their stock. Keep in mind that the AFL is an extreme offensive environment - the average hitter slashed .286/.362/.454, and pitchers had a 5.53 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and 2/1 K/BB.

Dozier completed his breakout campaign with a .296/.358/.454 performance - essentially league average. However, if you add his 1 for 2 with a HR from the Rising Stars game, his line puffs up to .300/.361/.482. Looks like he'll be a better hitter than Casilla and Nishioka, and possibly Carroll. He remains firmly in my plans for 2013.
Chris Hermann appeared in just 15 games but made a huge impact when he was out there. He hit .380/.456/.620 with a 6/7 K/BB ratio. A catcher at the upper levels who can hit! I hope the Twins will start him in Rochester next year.
Stalled as a starter, the Twins sent MN native Cole DeVries to the bullpen in 2010. It took him a year to get comfortable, I guess. After a pretty good regular season, he turned in one of the best pitching performances in the AFL, with a 3.12 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 19/3 K/BB in 26 IP. Could he be the next Matt Guerrier?
Best of all, Hicks finally took a step forward. His .294/.400/.559 line was good for the 13th best OPS in the entire league. In fewer than 1/4 the ABs he had in Fort Myers, he maintained his 2B pace, quadrupled his 3B rate and nearly tripled his HR rate. Prior to the fall, it was probably a bit iffy whether he would be promoted to AA next April, but the display of in-game power he put on should be enough to ensure that he progresses. That keeps him potentially on pace to join the Twins by 2014.

Conclusion

Here's how Joe Christensen breaks down the 2012 roster with the guys on the 40-man at this point. It includes a bench of Nishioka, Trevor Plouffe or Rene Tosoni, Luke Hughes and Drew Butera, and a bullpen of Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing, Alex Burnett, Lester Oliveros, Jose Mijares, Esmerling Vasquez and Jeff Gray.

Plenty of work still to do, Mr. Ryan.

Hope Is Kindled

2011-11-08T14:16:00.000-08:00

I'm a glass-half-full guy. If there's any reasonable chance of some upside in a situation, I'll look for it to come about. I stay positive, and it helps keep my outlook on life sunny.

That applies to my status as a Twins fan, as well. Right to the end, I expected good things from Delmon Young. I thought Francisco Liriano was going to be great in 2011. I even keep rooting for Shooter Hunt to find the strike zone again. Whatever the prevailing wisdom regarding expectations for the Twins, I'm usually inclined to take the over.

This offseason, for the first time in a long while, that was not the case. The weight of Bill Smith's poor moves had so far overwhelmed his good ones that it became clear that the man simply didn't have the ability to accurately evaluate talent. He didn't understand that JJ Hardy was a valuable asset that one doesn't just throw away. Or that Matt Capps is a good but not great pitcher. Or that Jose Morales is a much better player than Drew Butera. The Twins' roster needs a lot of fixing, and there was no reason to think that Smith was going to go about it in a way that would actually improve matters.

But, most of all, it was his apparent unwillingness to shake things up that troubled me. I wanted to see the entire training and conditioning staff fired at 9:00AM on September 29th. Not only didn't that happen, but Smith later indicated that the very same people would be in place again next season. As I noted in my Offseason Blueprint, no amount of tinkering with the roster is going to make the 2012 Twins back into winners if Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Denard Span can't play 130+ games each. It is imperative that at least 2 of the 3 return to full health and productivity. Entrusting that crucial task to the same group of bumblers who failed over and over to keep the players on the field was the last straw for me. I was resigned that the Twins would be losers again next year.

Then, yesterday, like a beacon on a mountaintop, came the unexpected news that Smith had been fired, to be immediately replaced by Terry Ryan, the architect of the Twins' success for most of the past decade. Instantly, my outlook changed.

Ryan hasn't been afraid to let treasured familiar faces walk when their free agent price tags get higher than their expected performance. Eddie Guardado, Jacque Jones, Corey Coskie... the only time he really blew that sort of evaluation was with David Ortiz. That sober gaze is required this offseason as the Twins decide how far to go to retain Michael Cuddyer, Joe Nathan and Jason Kubel.

While Ryan didn't nail every trade, he had a knack for knowing when to pull the trigger on a deal that would return the most value. The AJ Pierzynski for Nathan, Liriano and Boof Bonser trade alone blows away everything Smith did. But there were also effective trades of Chuck Knoblauch, Eric Milton, Bobby Kielty, and smaller deals that brought in eventual contributors like Jason Bartlett, Luis Castillo, and Alexi Casilla. It will take some trades to restore the organization to health in 2012 and beyond, especially with the payroll likely to come down a bit. I would expect Smith to get cheated in those deals. But I expect Ryan to have the upper hand.

Should Cuddyer and Kubel sign with other teams, the Twins may find themselves with 5 of the top 60 or so draft picks next summer. In his 1st tenure, Ryan drafted 22 players in the 1st and supplemental rounds. 17 made the majors, with 8 delivering at least 3 WAR to this point in their careers (and Ben Revere, Chris Parmelee and Kyle Waldrop are just getting started). He had 3 clunkers in a row from 1998-2000 (Ryan Mills, BJ Garbe and Adam Johnson), but otherwise his 1st round drafting record is pretty solid. In the 2nd round, he hit on Jones, Jesse Crain, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Joe Benson. Though it's still early to evaluate what will become of Smith's picks, it's disconcerting that so many of them already appear to have stalled for one reason or another. I certainly feel comfortable turning the responsibility for making those selections over to Ryan.

But, most warming to my soul, were the comments Ryan made demanding accountability from the training staff. I may yet get my wish for big changes in that department, and if I do, the Twins' chances of bouncing back next season will be that much better.

I don't know if there is any other single transaction the front office could have made that would do as much to change the franchise's fortunes for the better. I hope Ryan resigns Nathan and lets the other free agents walk. I hope he finds the right pieces to upgrade the defense and the lineup. I hope all the walking wounded can return to full strength in 2012. I hope.

2011-12 Offseason Blueprint

2011-10-30T14:47:00.000-07:00

This is my answer to the question of how to compose the 2012 Twins roster as inspired by the Twinscentric bloggers in their Offseason Handbook. All estimated salaries are derived from there.

I begin with first principles:

If you haven't got your health, you haven't got anything. Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Denard Span together account for $40M of the Twins' payroll. They comprise 3 of the first 4 spots in a productive offensive lineup, and each plays average to outstanding defense in the field. Coming off of injury-ravaged 2011 seasons, they are huge question marks looking ahead to next year. Any stable roster for 2012 must include viable backup options for each of them. But, realistically, if at least 2 of the 3 can't provide a full season of playing time at their respective positions, we're screwed.
If you're going to pitch to contact, you've got to catch the ball. And the Twins are going to pitch to contact. Full seasons of Scott Baker and good Francisco Liriano would help, but with Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey under contract or team control for 2012, there are going to be a lot of balls in play. Whoever I bring in to try to bolster the lineup had better be at least an average defender.
No free passes. The Twins' pitchers had their worst K/BB ratio in over a decade, and I didn't like it. Whoever I bring in to bolster their pitching staff must have a proven track record of avoiding walks.
Don't block the kids. Some good prospects are finally reaching AAA next year. Joe Benson, Chris Parmelee and Brian Dozier are in my plans for 2013, with Kyle Gibson, Alex Wimmers, Tom Stuifbergen, Aaron Hicks and Chris Hermann on the radar for sometime between then and 2014. As I bring in free agents, I don't want to give out contracts that would force me to overpay aging veterans for the same production I could be getting out of home-grown talent for the league minimum.
How could they be so shallow? The lack of quality depth on the 40-man roster was an absolute killer for the Twins in 2011. I'll be looking for every opportunity to upgrade from the replacement-level dreck that has been residing there. I'll scour the waiver wire and the minor-league free agent pool for castoffs who may yet have some upside.

With that established, here's what I would do with the current roster and a budget of about $115M:

Free agent decisions

I let Matt Capps walk with no offer of arbitration - there's no question he'd make more there than on the open market. I let Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer walk as well, though I offer each of them arbitration. I think they're in line for multi-year deals, which would violate #4 above. Kubel doesn't offer enough versatility - he basically whacks RHP but is a liability in the field, on the bases, and vs. LHP. Cuddyer won't be as good in 2014 as Joe Benson will be, but he'll be making 20-25 times as much. No thanks. If, however, either one of them for some reason accepted arbitration, I'd happily take them back on a one-year deal.

I would bring Joe Nathan back for a 2-year, $14M contract with a $7M option for 2014. A lot of people have noticed that he was much better after his DL stint in June. But, really, it was only his April that was awful. That month he allowed 10 ER in 9 IP on 9 H (2 HR) and 7 BB with only 7 K. From then on: 35.2 IP, 29 H, 14 ER, 5 HR, 7 BB, 36 K. He came to the mound with the lead 20 times and only gave it up once. It's a bit of a premium to pay, but it's worth it to keep around a real Twins star who has already established himself as one of the franchise's all-time greats. A lot of the truly elite relievers have held up well through their 30s, and Nathan is in that league.

Arbitration Eligibles

I'll offer contracts to Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Kevin Slowey, Alexi Casilla and Jose Mijares. Phil Dumatrait and Matt Tolbert will not get contracts. Jason Repko has his uses as a speedster who can play solid D at all three OF positions. I'd still be interested in keeping him in the system, but on a minor league deal.

40-Man Roster

I am going to cut everybody who no longer has a semblance of upside. I wouldn't have dropped Anthony Slama, but the other real-world cuts so far (Tolbert, Repko, Dumatrait, Rene Rivera and Brian Dinkelman) are a good start. I'd also jettison Jeff Manship and Luke Hughes. I'd add Angel Morales, Tyler Robertson, Yangervis Solarte and Tom Stuifbergen. Pending the second half of the Arizona Fall League season, Cole DeVries looks like somebody worth protecting, while Bruce Pugh does not. I'm not the slightest bit worried that the organization will permanently lose anybody in the Rule 5 Draft who hasn't yet reached AA.

Trades

I want to act as quickly as possible on these, because they'll determine what I'll need to pick up in free agency and how desperate I need to be to get it.

Acquire SP James Shields and C Kelly Shoppach from the Rays for SP Liam Hendriks, OF Ben Revere, RP Carlos Gutierrez and OF Oswaldo Arcia.

I really need to be aggressive on this one. The Rays have until Monday night to make a decision on Shields' $7M and Shoppach's $3.2M options, and they'll almost certainly decline Shoppach's. It may be possible to sign him (or a similar player) for less in free agency, but I don't mind the price tag of the option. He's a buy-low throw-in for the Rays, and the $300K they'll save on his option would no doubt be put to good use elsewhere. And he helps me save face a little, because giving up 4 good prospects looks better when you get 2 veterans in return instead of just 1. Over the past 3 seasons, Shoppach has been a roughly average defender. Against RHP he's Drew Butera, but vs. LHP he's had an OPS well north of .800.

Shields is the prize, and here we're buying high. The Rays surely would love to keep him, with his 3 reasonable option years, but with their under-attended stadium, they can ill-afford to devote 15% of their payroll to one player. Even without Shields, they'll have an elite rotation, and they already have 2 more quality starters stashed in AAA Durham. Plus, the Rays are run by former Wall Street guys, and they must understand that Shields' value will never be higher than it is right now. That's why it'll take a huge package to bring him to MN. But he's the 2nd coming of Brad Radke, a relentless strike-thrower with a plus changeup and a propensity to serve up the long ball. I'll make sure that when I part with him in a couple years, he's a Type A who's sure to decline arbitration, thus recouping picks to replace half of this trade package.

Revere has been expendable for me for a couple of years now. No power, no arm - I just don't want him in the same lineup as Span. He's a useful backup, but I'll look to cover that another way until the wave of OF prospects reaches the upper minors. Revere will be an upgrade for the Rays over Sam Fuld, who didn't outperform Revere by much as a 29-year old, and doesn't project to get any better. Revere will fit right into the Rays' super defense and crazy base-stealing.

Hendriks is tough to part with, but he's the only man standing with any value at the upper levels. The Rays won't let go of Shields unless they can maintain the depth of their SP. Hendriks can go right into line and be ready to contribute for them by the 2nd half of 2012 if injuries should decimate their rotation.

Gutierrez has a great sinking fastball, but he doesn't control it well enough for me to think that he'll be a great contributor to the bullpen. Kyle Waldrop and Guerra get plenty of grounders, too, but they throw a lot more strikes. I'll count on them to step up instead. For me, Arcia is the least appealing of the Twins' OF prospects. At 20, he's already filled out to the point where there's not much chance of him becoming useful in the field. All the other kids can run. By shipping these two, I don't have to protect them in the Rule 5 draft, and save a couple of roster spots.

Acquire C Chris Iannetta, OF Seth Smith and RP Rafael Betancourt from the Rockies for SP Carl Pavano and 3B Danny Valencia.

This is why I really need Shields. The Rockies are looking for an innings-eater and someone to platoon with (or possibly replace) Ian Stewart. They have catching depth at the upper levels and have never really loved Iannetta. Smith becomes expendable if they sign a free agent OF (Cuddyer, perhaps?). They're rumored to have some interest in Pavano. I think Valencia is likely to be at least a league-average 3B for the next couple of seasons, but he's especially good against LHP, and Troy Tulowitzki's spectacular range could make up for some of his defensive shortcomings.

Iannetta is an average catcher with outstanding patience and plus power. He loses a lot of slugging while facing RHP, but his OBP remains high against them. And he looks like Albert Pujols when you compare him to Drew Butera.

Smith is basically another Jason Kubel, but with a better glove, some baserunning ability, and 3 years of team control. He's scorched RHP in his career (.881 OPS) but has struggled against southpaws.

Any reliever who can thrive in the rarefied air of Denver is worth a look. Betancourt absolutely refuses to walk anybody (1.2 BB/9 over the last 2 seasons) and has averaged 9.6 K/9 for his career. He adds a RH option to compliment Glen Perkins in the setup role.

Free Agents

I'm going to assume that the M&M boys and Shoppach are going to get the lion's share of the time at DH, so I'm not going to hire a regular there. Between Iannetta and Shoppach, I've got Mauer covered. Mauer will be Morneau's backup at 1B until Parmelee is ready to stick. I'll move Plouffe over to 3B - the .262/.317/.401 line he posted from August 15th on is pretty close to the league average for the position, he's got plenty of arm for the hot corner, and his not-quite-enough for SS range might be OK there. But I still need some Span insurance, a good-fielding SS, a backup IF who can excel at 3B, and a corner OF to platoon with Smith.

Sign OF Coco Crisp (3-years, $24M), SS Clint Barmes (2-years, $8M), IF Nick Punto (1-year, $1M) and OF Andruw Jones (1-year, $2M).

Crisp is a switch-hitter with range enough to excel in any OF position. He's an elite base-stealer. And he's got just a little more pop than Span. I like him a lot more than Revere. I'm skeptical that he'd command a 3-year deal this offseason (I'd shoot for 2 + an option), but I'll do what I have to do in order to get him. 3 years buys Aaron Hicks some extra development time at the upper levels, and if Hicks progresses, Crisp always seems to be a coveted trade piece.

Barmes is the best defender at SS who doesn't suck with the bat. He doesn't offer anything as a base stealer, but hopefully between Span, Casilla and Crisp I've got that covered. With him on board I'll have the luxury of sending Tsuyoshi Nishioka to the minors if he doesn't show improvement this spring.

We all know what Punto can do. He'll give a good PA as a PH, he's an asset as a PR, and he'd be a defensive upgrade in the late innings. Hopefully the projected starters play well enough to keep him in a bench role.

There are a number of guys available to fill the RH corner OF slot. Jones would be the best combination of bat, defense and baserunning. If I can't get him, Reed Johnson, Cody Ross, Johnny Gomes or Juan Rivera would be fine substitutes. This is potentially an area in which I can wait to see what the market brings in December or later.

The Result

Catchers: Mauer ($23M), Iannetta ($3.55M), Shoppach ($3.2M)

Infielders: Morneau ($14M), Casilla ($2.5M), Barmes ($4M), Nishioka ($3M), Punto ($1M), Plouffe ($420K)

Outfielders: Crisp ($8M), Span ($3M), Smith ($2.6M), Jones ($2M)

Rotation: Shields ($7M), Baker ($6.5M), Liriano ($6M), Blackburn ($4.75M), Slowey ($3.3M)

Bullpen: Nathan ($7M), Betancourt ($4M), Perkins ($1.8M), Mijares ($700K), Duensing ($500K), Swarzak ($450K), Waldrop (or Hoey, Oliveros, Vasquez, etc.) ($420K)

Including Nathan's buyout, that comes to just under $115M. A typical lineup:

vs. RHP: Span, Crisp, Mauer, Morneau, Iannetta, Smith, Plouffe, Casilla, Barmes

vs. LHP: Span, Crisp, Mauer, Jones, Iannetta, Shoppach, Plouffe, Barmes, Casilla

I'm counting on bounce-back years from the holdovers and typical production from the new faces. If that happens, we're in business. If the injuries and ineffectiveness persist, hopefully there are few pieces I can cash in before the trade deadline next summer.

The Scapegoat

2011-09-28T10:59:00.000-07:00

Who's to blame for this fiasco? There has been an abundance of failure this season, and there will undoubtedly be changes for 2012. It would be great to find an individual whose removal would assure an upturn in the Twins' fortunes for next year. But, when a team loses 30+ wins year-over-year, can any one person account for the fall?

If I had to single out a player, it would be Matt Capps. From the beginning of the season until he was taken out of the Closer role in mid-July, Capps went 15/22 in save opportunities with a 4.76 ERA and 7 HR allowed in 39.2 IP. The Twins lost 6 of those 7 games that they were leading late. Had he converted at least 3 more of those opportunities, the Twins would have been trailing the Tigers by just 3 games in the last week of July, putting them in a clear position to deal for reinforcements and potentially head off the free-fall they've been in since the trade deadline. Capps has been better lately, but still has blown 2 leads while holding just 3, and has lost 2 games that were tied when he entered. Basically, he single-handedly cost the Twins at least 5 wins, which is a ton for a guy who's only pitched about 5% of the team's total IP. But even if he'd been great, it probably wouldn't have been enough to turn things around.

It's typical to lay blame for a disappointing season upon a head coach or manager, but I don't think Gardy deserves much. He's coming off a tremendous, Manager of the Year season. His staff is the same group of coaches who have consistently led the Twins to competitive finishes. Prior to this year, the only 2 seasons he didn't have his team in contention were 2005 & 2007, when the offense failed to support the pitching staff thanks to flukishly low BABIPs. There are certainly a couple of managerial decisions that contributed to the mess. He should have reinstalled Joe Nathan as the Closer 2-3 weeks earlier than he did. And his misguided displeasure with JJ Hardy's 2010 performance seems to have been a factor in prompting that trade and, consequently, a significant downgrade to the SS position. But more often than not, I've felt bad for Gardy. He only got to play his opening day lineup a couple of times. He frequently had to work with a short bench. Basically, he had no choice but to pencil in a bunch of guys who weren't ready to contribute at the Major League level.

Part of that was the result of poor scouting. Somebody recommended to the front office that Tsuyoshi Nishioka was capable of being an every day middle infielder in The Show. Somebody thought that Eric Hacker, Scott Diamond, Jim Hoey and Dusty Hughes were worthy of 40-man roster spots. Those scouts might find that their jobs are on the line now, or at least that they've lost some of the credibility they once enjoyed.

Part of it was the result of poor player development. With the exceptions of Anthony Swarzak and Chris Parmelee, the common thread running through all the guys the Twins brought up from the minors was that they were bad at their jobs. Position players that couldn't hit. Pitchers who couldn't throw strikes, or miss bats, or keep the ball in the yard. Baserunning blunders. Inability to execute with RISP and less than 2 outs. The reinforcements couldn't do the big things, but they couldn't do the little things either. The Rochester coaching staff already got the axe after producing back-to-back 90-loss seasons, and the organizational shakeup may not stop there.

But part of the reason that Rochester struggled so much was that the players who began the season there didn't have much upside to begin with. A few who did have some favorable projection - Alex Burnett, Swarzak, Rene Tosoni, Luke Hughes, Ben Revere, Trevor Plouffe - were called up to the Majors multiple times, some before they were ready, some into part-time roles that kept them from establishing much of a rhythm. A few others were lost to injuries - Kyle Gibson, Anthony Slama and David Bromberg, for example. But guys who had been discarded by other teams - guys like Steve Holm and Rene Rivera, Phil Dumatrait, Chuck James, Hacker - were never expected to contribute much to the Twins. When the tattered depth chart forced them into service, the dreadful results should have come as a surprise to no one.

It was clear going into the season that the depth on this team was paper-thin at several positions. Bill Smith has to be accountable for that. Several rival GMs did a much better job of building depth. Tampa Bay, for example, had even more desertions to its playoff-caliber bullpen than the Twins did. But they rebuilt on the cheap, and their unit owns a solid ERA and the second-fewest blown saves in the league. Still, I don't think it would have been reasonable for Smith to expect that so many of the journeymen he signed to flesh out the AAA team should have found their way onto the Major League roster.

The biggest problem with the 2011 Twins is that the 1st-string guys weren't able to play together. They had to use the DL 27 times this season. And that didn't even account for all the games lost to injuries. Regularly, 1 or more players were held out of the lineup for several days with "day-to-day" injuries, shortening the bench for Gardy. Too frequently, those guys wound up on the DL eventually, anyway. Whatever the initial estimates for recovery times, it always seemed to take longer for people to heal. On more than one occasion, a player came back, played poorly for a short period, then went right back on the shelf.

I'll try to quantify how much injuries hurt the Twins this year. Joe Mauer appeared in 82 games this year, including just 52 at Catcher. His 333 PA were about 55% of what he would accumulate in a healthy season. Justin Morneau played 69 games (we'll call that 45% of a healthy season). Denard Span played 70 games (45%). Jason Kubel and Alexi Casilla were at 70%. Nishioka was at 45%. Nick Blackburn made 80% of the 33 GS we would have liked to see. Francisco Liriano made 75%, Scott Baker 64%. Joe Nathan's 44.2 IP were only 64% of the roughly 70 IP he worked in typical seasons.

Apply those percentages to the salaries those guys earned this season, and you wind up losing nearly $30M. Throw in the DL stints for Delmon Young and Jim Thome prior to their trades and you're easily over that. The Twins' opening day payroll was in the top 10 in baseball, but injuries effectively reduced it to the bottom 12. A likely contender was turned into nothing special.

It is the job of the training staff to keep the players on the field. They should put the players on a workout regimen that will give them the strength and flexibility to play at their peak level of performance without breaking down over the course of the long season. When injuries occur, they need to diagnose them quickly and accurately, and realistically assess what the recovery time will be. They need to put hurting guys on a rehab program that will get them back to 100% within their projected timetable.

The Twins' training staff conclusively failed to do this. The injuries began in the offseason and lingered through September. The team the Pohlads paid for never came together. Head Trainer Rick McWane, Assistant Trainer Dave Pruemer and Strength and Conditioning Coordinator Perry Castellano do not have the same track record of success that the coaching staff has earned. In fact, they have drawn criticism from a number of players over the past couple of seasons for the mishandling of various injuries. I don't know the degree to which they did or not, but it's pretty clear to me that there must be somebody out there who could fill their roles better. If I were running the show, I'd make it my 1st order of business on Thursday morning to fire all three of them. That would be a solid 1st step toward making things go better in 2012.

Microcosm

2011-09-12T11:38:00.000-07:00

Twins 4, Tigers 8
Twins 2, Tigers 3
Twins 1, Tigers 2

It's the Tigers' year. There have been hints of that throughout the season, most notably that their actual record has far outpaced their Pythagorean Record for most of the summer. Their key players have been healthy and productive. Their opportunistic offense has frequently been able to bail out their largely unimpressive pitching staff. They have won 9 straight. Everything is going their way.

It's not the Twins' year. Their key players have all been injured, and most have been unproductive when in the lineup. Their anemic offense has been unable to step up and provide enough runs for the pitchers to win on the rare days when the hurlers haven't also stunk. They have lost 17 of 21 and 31 of 40. Nothing is going their way.

With that as the backdrop, was there really any doubt that the Tigers would find a way to prevail in the tight games on Saturday and Sunday? Did it matter that Glen Perkins, the Twins' best reliever this season, was facing Brandon Inge, the Tigers' worst hitter? That Perkins had allowed 1 HR all year going into their matchup, and that Inge had hit just 2? When the 1st 2 batters reached against Jose Valverde in the 9th inning on Sunday, was there really any hope that they would both score and cost him his 1st BS of 2011?

Of course not.

Notes:

Did you notice the way Perkins took responsibility for serving up the dinger to Inge and blamed it on Drew Butera at the same time? To paraphrase: "It's my fault for agreeing to throw the stupid pitch that Drew called." Was he being cunning or tactless? I can't decide. But I do know that with every passing week I grow more secure in my conviction that Butera doesn't actually call a good game.

The Rays just DFA'd Rob Delaney. Maybe the Twins should scoop him back up. He's been pathetic in 6 total IP for the Rays and Twins so far, but what do you really learn about a guy in 6 jittery innings? In 195.1 IP at AAA he's got a 1.18 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 and just 2.5 BB/9. It's worth a look. What have they got to lose?

The Twins are now just 1/2 game ahead of the Orioles in the MLB standings. Oh, so close to the #2 overall draft pick! Keep it up, fellas!

The Rockies trail Cleveland by 4 games and Toronto by 4.5 games. If they can pass them both, there's a good chance that they'll move into the top half of the MLB standings, where their aspirations to sign Michael Cuddyer could really do the Twins some good. Go Rox!

Making Lemonade

2011-09-02T15:39:00.000-07:00

There are just under 4 weeks to go until the end of the 2011 season, when the Twins and their fans can finally be put out of their misery. Though the division was lost early last month, there are still some things to hope for in September:

Just Lose, Baby

If the season ended today, the Twins would have the 4th overall pick in next summer's draft. They haven't even had a top 10 pick since they got Joe Mauer with the 1st overall pick in 2001. There's a chance that hard slotting will be a feature of the new CBA to be negotiated this offseason. If that's the case, the Twins could get a consensus stud with their top pick and sign him for a set, reasonable bonus, even if he were represented by Scott Boras. Recent #4 picks who have made good include Brian Matusz, Jeff Niemann, Gavin Floyd and Ryan Zimmerman.

A top 5 pick would also ensure a high 2nd round selection. There are typically between 15-30 supplemental round picks, meaning that the Twins' 4th pick in the 2nd round would still be a pick in the 50s overall. For comparison, thanks to an unusually high number of ranked free agents switching teams, their 2 supplemental round picks this year were #50 and #55 overall - technically 1st rounders.

But why settle for #4? Houston has a commanding lead for the 1st overall pick next year. But right now, the Twins are only 2.5 games behind Baltimore for the #2 pick. Recent #2 picks include Dustin Ackley, Pedro Alvarez, Mike Moustakis, BJ Upton, Rickie Weeks and Justin Verlander. The closer you get to the top of the board, the better your odds of picking up a guy who can become a productive major leaguer in short order. To that end...

Call Up Everybody

Gardy's into it, and why not? They've been fielding a lineup full of fringe major leaguers for most of the season anyway. They might as well go whole hog in September. Jim Hoey and Chuck James both got lit up in their earlier stints in the Twins' bullpen, but Alex Burnett is getting lit up now, so what's the difference?

Denard Span, Alexi Casilla, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Francisco Liriano will all try to return before the end of the season. It would be great to see those guys push some of the scrubs out of the lineup and end the year on a positive note. Then again, what's the point? So what if Baker, Blackburn and Liriano each have 2 more decent starts on a pitch count? Or if Span and Casilla each get through 2 weeks of action without headaches or hamstring soreness? What does anybody prove in so little playing time? I'd just as soon have all of them shut down, conclusively heal their injuries and get to work strengthening themselves for next year.

Are Scott Diamond or Anthony Swarzak any good? I doubt it, but let's see what they can do. AA studs Joe Benson, Chris Parmelee and Deolis Guerra (the Reliever) are on the roster but not ready for The Show. Still, let them get their 1st game jitters out of the way in a low-stakes environment. Give them a taste of what they've been working for, so they can keep that image in their minds when they get after it at AAA next spring. They should be the more confident for it when they're called up under what we hope will be more meaningful circumstances during the 2012 season.

Filling the dugout with the few members of the 40-man roster who weren't deemed good enough to merit a call-up at some point during this injury-riddled season should make for a nice September. Gardy will finally have the long bench he's been struggling to keep all year. But the pups won't necessarily be able to produce the way veterans would when they get thrown out there. A 4th sub-.400 month would give the Twins a great chance of moving up in the draft order. Play the kids! However...

Type A Personalities

Impending free agents Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer are both likely to decline arbitration and test the market this offseason. It appears as though both are on the cusp of attaining Type A status. The Twins need to give them every opportunity to do so.

Assuming they want to bring at least one of them back, a Type A ranking would probably put Kubel into the same territory as Carl Pavano last year. Would anybody really want to outbid the open market and give up a 1st-round draft pick for a guy who doesn't hit lefties well, is a minus on the basepaths and in the OF, and has a history of failing to stay healthy? His list of suitors might become quite short, and he might even fall back to the Twins for a relatively modest commitment, as Pavano did. Or, if he is signed by, say, the White Sox, the Twins would pick up another top 20 pick plus a supplemental, giving them 4 of the top 50-60 picks. Fair compensation!

Cuddyer seems to have a deeper market for his services, so I can easily see the Twins being outbid for him. If they have to lose him, I'd rather it be for 2 picks than one. It may be that his status is in doubt because of his mix of time between 1B and RF. If ensuring that he has more OF time is all the Twins need to do to get him firmly into Type A territory, they should make sure he spends all of September away from the IF. Joe Mauer and Luke Hughes can fill in at 1B when Justin Morneau isn't up to it, and Parmelee will be an option there shortly, too.

If anybody's going to play every day from here it out, it should be Kubel and Cuddyer. Though it would perhaps be even better if each sat out 2-3 games against same-sided SP - their rate stats would probably be the better for it. Speaking of Cuddyer...

Rock-tember!

The Colorado Rockies look like they'll be an aggressive suitor for Cuddyer in the offseason. Currently, they rank #19 in the MLB standings, meaning that they'd only have to give up their 2nd round pick in order to sign him. That wouldn't be so great. They're 5 games behind Toronto for the #15 overall spot, and 5.5 behind Cleveland and the Chisox. They've got a bunch of teams to pass up, but they've played much better than their record shows, and their September schedule is fairly soft. Only 8 of their 25 games are against teams with positive run differentials, and of those, only 2 games vs. Brewers are with contenders. They would need to go 17-8 to finish .500, but they certainly have the talent to do it.

I think there's a good chance at least one of Chicago/Cleveland/Toronto finishes the year with a losing record. The Blue Jays' remaining schedule, in particular, looks rough. If the Rox can slip into the upper half of the standings, they're welcome to sign Cuddyer. The Twins would get back the 16th overall pick, plus another supplemental. Losing both Kubel and Cuddyer under those circumstances could net the Twins 3 of the top 20 picks. To put that in perspective, the Twins have only had 4 top 20 picks in the last 10 years, and 3 of those were exactly #20. The odds of them nabbing at least one impact talent out of that draft would be pretty good. Best of luck to Kubel & Cuddyer's offseason suitors down the stretch!

Final Adjustments

Most of the young guys seeing their 1st Major League action this year have struggled desperately - a lot of OBPs below .300. But that's often the case with newcomers to the league. It takes some guys a little while to get accustomed to the next level. Remember that Alexi Casilla hit just .223/.263/.259 through his 1st 210 PAs, and now he's... well... he's not that bad.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka has been deer-in-headlights helpless out there for most of the season. His 1st 210 PAs were even worse than Casilla's: .214/.256/.240. But since then, he's 4 for 12 with a couple of BB and just 1 K. No one should be getting excited about 4 good starts, but if he can loosen up and have a decent September, it might be an indication that he won't be totally hopeless in 2012.

Luke Hughes was hitting .233/.296/.317 through the end of July, but in August he hit .256/.341/.641. His weak glove and high strikeout rate will likely keep him from becoming a regular, but if he can repeat his August numbers in September, it would go a long way toward proving that he can be a credible bench/platoon bat.

Through his 1st 171 MLB PA, Trevor Plouffe was hitting just .187/.228/.348 with very questionable defense. But since rejoining the everyday lineup on August 15th, he's hit .300/.338/.443 in 75 PA with much steadier glove work. If he can back that up with a strong final month, the Twins might feel comfortable penciling him into one of the MI spots next spring.

I don't have any encouraging recent numbers to point to with respect to Ben Revere. But he has spent almost no time at AAA - just 32 games, where he hit his typical .300+ BA - so it shouldn't surprise anyone that he's struggled this year. A good September from him would show that he might be ready to be the .300/.350/.350 hitter with 50 SB speed that could be a solid contributor to the lineup. If not, it might be best for everyone if the Twins plan to give him some time at Rochester next spring, and sign a short-term corner OF to bridge the gap.

Those are the things I'll be watching for in September. After that, when the Twins don't play for 5 months... As tough as this season has been, those days will be less fun for me.

Stars Align

2011-08-31T23:52:00.000-07:00

When I'm not blogging (i.e. most of this summer) or taking care of my two small children, I'm producing music and sound for film, theater, whatever. I'm trying to break into the video game business now that I'm up in Seattle. My quest for work in a new city has pretty much squelched my Twins habit since the move. But, this week, my two passions collided.

As I hope you already know, Aaron Gleeman and the Twins Geek have teamed up for a new podcast called, appropriately, Gleeman and the Geek. They put out a call for submissions for theme music and logos. The music I submitted appeared in podcast #3 this week. It's sort of ESPN Radio meets South Park. After the music fades, the hour they spend talking about the Twins is pretty great, too. Check it out!

Turning the Page

2011-06-14T15:27:00.000-07:00

My entries have been sparse for the last few weeks, for several reasons. First, it's always an uphill battle to find time to blog around taking care of 2 pre-Preschool children. Then, right about the time I saw reasons for optimism in mid-May, I got busy packing the house to move our family up to Seattle. Since I arrived here I've been overwhelmed with unpacking, networking, finding my local ______, etc. But during all of that upheaval, I kept checking in on the Twins, and was amazed to find that, night after night, they had managed to lose another game.

I had believed that scoring 4 or more runs a game was the key to winning for this team. But from May 20th-June 1st, they went 1-7 in games in which they scored 4+ runs. Those losses, mostly the result of bullpen meltdowns from replacement level pitchers like Dusty Hughes, Jim Hoey and Alex Burnett, took the possibility of a Twins turnaround this year from unlikely to nearly impossible. They were so soul-crushingly shocking, yet happened with such regularity, that I simply became numb. Tough to squeeze in time to write while feeling like that.

However, since the calendar turned to June, the fundamentals of this team (and its division rivals) have clarified themselves in such a way that I can't help but dive back into more active fanhood. I'm referring in part to the recent collapse of the Indians, who had jumped out far in front of the pack thanks to a nearly flawless month of April. Their only wins in the last 11 games have come by 1-0 scores; their offense has ground to a halt. This morning's standings show the following run differentials for the AL Central (Team: Differential, Pythagorean W%, Projected Record):

Tigers: +12, .521, 84-78

Indians: +7, .512, 83-79

White Sox: -7, .488, 79-83

Royals: -34, .446, 72-90

Twins: -64, .386, 63-99

I'm not aware of any reasons why we shouldn't expect those projections to more or less hold for the top 4 teams in the division. Somebody might wind up with more than 85 wins, but I'd be very surprised if more than 1 team does. In order to be that team, the Twins need to go at least 59-38 the rest of the way. That's a 98-99 win pace over a full season. Their total stats so far make that kind of record look pretty far-fetched. But they've only had their full team on the field for about 2 weeks this season, and the way they played for those 2 weeks wasn't representative of their true ability. Things have gone much better since then. Compare the average AL lineup with the Twins regulars:

AL CF: .264/.321/.416; Denard Span: .294/.361/.385

Plus he's 4/5 SB (why isn't he running more?) and playing some of the best D in the league. Please, please, please don't have a serious concussion.

AL SS: .265/.322/.382; Alexi Casilla: .263/.325/.343

Not a slugger, but the OBP is right there.

AL C: .235/.304/.378

I think Mauer can top that from here on out.

AL 1B: .270/.345/.449; Michael Cuddyer: .273/.339/.432

Justin Morneau is headed to the DL, so I'll drop Cuddy in here. He's almost average overall, and he's hit .296/.359/.477 since April 12th, on pace to hit 25-30 HR.

AL LF: .239/.302/.366; Delmon Young: .246/.272/.316

As poorly as he's hit so far this year, it's amazing that he isn't further from the pack. His 1st 4 games after coming off the DL were like the rehab assignment he didn't get; in 25 games since then he's hit .286/.300/.378.

AL RF: .260/.339/.422; Jason Kubel: .310/.355/.465

Gotta get his ankle healed, but he shouldn't be much more than a week away.

AL DH: .263/.343/.412; Jim Thome: .237/.372/.447

Also should be off the DL in a week or so.

AL 3B: .236/.307/.371; Danny Valencia: .218/.282/.329

He continues to suffer from an unsustainably low BABIP (as evidenced by the sick catch the CF made on his drive to end the Twins' big 7th inning on Sunday). If only his liners were falling in at the league average rate he'd be hitting more like .253/.312/.392.

AL 2B: .249/.310/.370; Tsuyoshi Nishioka: ?

Nobody really knows what he can do in this league yet, but .680 OPS doesn't seem like too much to ask.

Even without Morneau, this is a lineup that should continue to score more runs than the average team. And don't forget that 58% of the Twins' remaining schedule will take place at home, and 53% of it will be against their unimpressive division rivals.

But even more important is the turnaround from the pitching staff. They've allowed only 24 ER so far this month for a sterling 2.02 ERA. The starters, with the exception of Brian Duensing, are all making it deep into games, enabling Gardy to keep the ball away from some of the more combustible relievers. Check out these trends:

In 4 starts working with Rene Rivera behind the plate, Francisco Liriano has turned his season around: 26 IP, 14 H, 5 R, 4 ER, HR, 8 BB, 29 K, 1.38 ERA, 0.85 WHIP. That's our Ace.

In 8 starts working with Rivera, Nick Blackburn has had one of the best stretches of his career: 56.1 IP, 55 H, 18 R, 15 ER, 6 HR, 11 BB, 32 K, 2.40 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a low but not alarming 5.1 K/9.

In his last 5 GS, Scott Baker has gone 34 IP, 31 H, 12 R, 11 ER, 3 HR, 6 BB, 30 K, 2.91 ERA, 1.09 WHIP.

In his last 7 GS, Carl Pavano has gone 52.1 IP, 54 H, 16 R, 13 ER, 2 HR, 10 BB, 21 K, 2.24 ERA, 1.22 WHIP.

4 guys consistently giving the team about 7 IP. The K/9 are up. The BB/9 and HR/9 are down. They're having some nice luck on balls in play right now, but this is basically the pitching staff we wanted to see coming into the season. It is one that could give an above average offense an opportunity to win all summer long.

Still, there are pieces of this team that aren't working, and June is the time to start making adjustments. The general return to health will accomplish a lot of that, but here are some other things I'd do:

Dump Drew Butera. Rivera is also a liability at the plate, and he's got .100 points of OPS on Butera. But that's not even the real reason. I've cited the improvements in Liriano's and Blackburn's performance since they began throwing to Rivera. That effect can be seen across the staff - the team ERA is about 2 R lower with him back there. He just calls a better game than Butera. The Twins would still be wise to look for a backup C who can actually hit, but Rivera is clearly the best option they have on the roster right now.
Go with 11 pitchers. This seems almost radical in today's game, but it makes a ton of sense for the Twins. With the starters eating so many innings, the time between outings for the less-impressive relievers is starting to get pretty long. And they're not that impressive, so why have them taking up a roster spot? A 6-man bullpen would enable the Twins to send somebody like Burnett back to AAA for more refinement, while keeping an extra bat like Luke Hughes around once Morneau is healthy.
Send Duensing to the bullpen. He's been exposed as a starter this year, thanks to a radical platoon split that has RH batters posting an .868 OPS against him. He's holding lefties to an excellent .553 OPS against, but he doesn't see as many of them when the opposing manager can stack his starting lineup with righties. Back in the bullpen, where he's enjoyed considerable success in the past, he could be a huge asset, deployed mainly in the situations in which he thrives. Matt Capps, Jose Mijares, Duensing, healthy Glen Perkins and Joe Nathan... throw a ROOGY in there and that's a pretty solid relief corps.
Call up Kyle Gibson. In 16 career GS at AAA, he's put up this line: 87 IP, 83 H, 33 ER, 8 HR, 22 BB, 83 K, 3.41 ERA, 1.21 WHIP. Maybe the HR/9 are a tiny bit high, but his peripherals are basically right where you'd want them to be. He's getting 7 grounders for every 4 flies, which should keep him from getting into too much trouble as a rookie in the AL. I think he could probably do at least as well as Duensing has, and his platoon splits aren't nearly as severe.
Call up a RHP with some stuff. Anthony Slama has gotten only a passing glance from the Twins at the Major League level, but he's held the International League to a .208 BAA with improved control numbers this year. Against RH batters, it's a .143 BAA with a 22/6 K/BB ratio in 18.2 IP. He could be the ROOGY. Or, if you prefer, there's former 1st-round pick Carlos Gutierrez. He still walks too many guys, but his K/BB ratio has improved in each month of the season so far, as has the G/F ratio produced by his heavy, heavy sinker. He hasn't allowed a HR all year. Either one of those guys would be a better option than Hoey or Anthony Swarzak.

That should keep things rolling for the next 5 or 6 weeks. At that point, if they've made up enough ground in the standings, the Twins can decide whether they want to make a move for someone outside the organization.

4th Split: 9-7

2011-06-12T22:52:00.000-07:00

Overall Record: 25-39

5th in AL Central by 10 games

Other splits: 6-10, 6-10, 4-12

Things finally started going right for the Twins in this split. They outscored their opponents 76-57, and finished it on an 8-2 run. And yet, I can't help but be disappointed. According to their Pythagorean Record, that run differential should have resulted in 10 wins. Which loss should have been a win instead? Take your pick; 5 of these 7 recent losses were by 1 run. For me, it's the 1-0 loss to Cleveland. It's not just that it would have brought them a game closer to the top of the standings. It was the Indians' only win in their last 9 games. And it came against what was probably the weakest lineup Gardy has thrown out there all season, with only 3 regular MLB players penciled in (or 4, depending on how you feel about Alexi Casilla these days). Every win is crucial when trying to dig out of a hole this deep.

4.8 RPG is right around where I expected the offense to be this season. They scored 5 or more runs - a figure that was hopelessly unreachable in the early part of the season - 11 times. This was especially remarkable given the fact that injuries took away Denard Span, Jason Kubel and Jim Thome - the 3 best hitters on the team this year - for most of the last week and a half. And the offense rolled anyway. It just goes to show that anybody good enough to play at the Major League level can get hot for awhile. Even AAA scrubs like Rene Rivera and Matt Tolbert.

The Twins went just 7-4 in those games where they score 5+ runs, though, because the bullpen had a few more horror shows left in them at the end of May. 5 runs allowed in the 8th inning on the 27th, in addition to late inning runs allowed on the 29th, 30th and 31st. All of those losses were by just 1 run. Since then, the starters and the bullpen have buckled down, and still managed to get through the split with a very nice 3.04 ERA. They served up just 11 HR in the 16 games and have their BBs back under control at 2.2/9. The starters (other than Brian Duensing) have been working deep into the games, allowing Gardy to leave the shakiest members of the 'pen on the bench when crunch time comes.

The fielding continues to be a liability, unfortunately. 11 more E resulted in another 9 UER, raising their season totals to 44 E and 33 UER. Those rank them 12th and 13th in the AL, respectively. Some of those UER were the difference in 1-run losses, such as the kick in the corner from Delmon Young in the 1-0 loss at Cleveland I cited above. I can only hope that the defensive aspect of the game will tighten up soon as the hitting and pitching have.

On paper, things should continue to be favorable for the Twins as they head to the season's midpoint. They have finally lived out their exile, and are now in the midst of playing 31 of 41 games at home. Not that they've done particularly well at home so far this year. Also, by the end of the week, they should begin to see an avalanche of players coming off the DL. Though the replacement players have begun the turnaround, they can't be expected to keep it up for long. Besides, if the Twins keep winning 9 of 16 the rest of the season, they'll just make it to .500 by the end of the year. If they want to do better than that, they're going to have to keep the pedal down.

Bold prediction: Delmon Young catches fire.

3rd Split: 4-12

2011-05-27T13:47:00.000-07:00

Overall Record: 16-32

5th in AL Central by 14.5 games

Other splits: 6-10, 6-10

Incredibly, things got worse. The lopsided scores disappeared as the strength of opponent tapered off. But the Twins still managed to have their worst split in years. They scored 4 or more runs 7 times. They went just 3-4 in those games. They allowed 3 or fewer runs 7 times. They went just 3-4 in those games. Basically, when they pitched well, they didn't hit. When they hit well, they didn't pitch. Whatever it took to lose, they did it.

The hitting definitely improved. The Twins averaged nearly 4 RPG and hit 15 HR - double their total to date. Their overall line of .240/.297/.362 is still beneath what you'd expect from a league average SS, but it looks pretty strong compared to what came before. This is largely due to vastly improved numbers from the bottom of the order. Alexi Casilla has caught fire since moving back to 2B, and Rene Rivera, while still hitting poorly even for a backup C, looks like Mike Piazza next to Drew Butera.

The pitching stayed about the same. Which is to say, it was pretty bad. The starters eventually kept the team in the game, but when they did, the bullpen routinely coughed up the lead. The overall team ERA was essentially flat. The K/9 improved a lot, but the BB/9 and HR/9 regressed a bit. Joe Nathan, Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins landed on the DL, forcing more marginal pitchers into high-leverage situations. Phil Dumatrait has done well, but everybody else has been killed.

The defense was dreadful. 13 E committed, though they resulted in just 4 UER. Too many extra outs, too many extra bases. Too much pressure added to a lineup and pitching staff that are struggling as it is. And that doesn't even include some of the plays that weren't made because of indecisiveness or lack of range. Some of it is the scrubs, but just about everybody the Twins run out there is capable of doing better, at least on balls hit into their zone.

Even terrible baseball teams generally win 6 out of every 16 games. It's hard to lose more than that. Everybody has their bad days, but they have their good days, too. The Twins have managed to make just enough mistakes to lose even on their good days. I don't know where the bottom of this pit is, but I still can't believe they won't reach it soon. They've played poorly, but they've also been unlucky. It isn't probable that both of those things will continue at this rate.

Bold prediction: They bottom out.

Hope

2011-05-18T11:48:00.000-07:00

Twins 2, Mariners 5

Twins 2, Mariners 1

We're 1/4 of the way through the season. This 13-27 stretch is the worst since the 2001 Twins came out of the All-Star break 11-30. But don't write them off just yet. There was some very encouraging news coming out of Tuesday night's recap. First, feast your eyes on this beauty:

7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

For the 1st time all season, Francisco Liriano pitched like he's supposed to. I know the Mariners aren't much better at hitting than the Twins are. But opposing lineups haven't been hitting Liriano too much lately. They've been walking. In this game, Liriano showed both improved control (17/26 batters faced started with strike 1) and a killer instinct once he got them to 2 strikes. Where has that been all season? Well... look at his stats by catcher:

Mauer - 7.71 ERA, 7.7 BB/9, 7.7 K/9

Rivera - 1.29 ERA, 1.3 BB/9, 11.6 K/9

Butera - 6.84 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 4.4 K/9

Small sample sizes all. Liriano has been horribly erratic, and he'll have to limit the walks if he's going to succeed going forward. But it appears that Butera isn't calling the game in such a way that would elicit swinging strikes. Looking at the staff as a whole:

Mauer - 4.04 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9

Rivera - 3.45 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 4.1 BB/9

Holm - 5.44 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

Butera - 5.58 ERA, 5.2 K/9, 4.1 BB/9

When Butera is behind the plate, all Twins pitchers have a terrible K/BB ratio. I actually find that very encouraging. As terrificly as Liriano and Nick Blackburn have done with Rivera behind the plate, I would think Gardy would want to keep that chemistry going. Since Butera and Rivera are both hitting horribly, why not go with the guy who's getting good pitching performances? And Joe Mauer will return some day. When he does, the K/BB ratio will improve, making the pitching better even as the catching spot is transformed from an automatic out into a .400+ OBP. Maybe seeing Butera outplayed by a replacement-level journeyman will help Bill Smith realize how badly the Twins need a proper backup C, and he'll do what it takes to get one.

Jason Repko started his rehab assignment yesterday, and went 2 for 5 with a HR. He will soon take the place of Ben Revere and his .167 OBP. Jim Thome is swinging the bat in Florida and should return within a week. Soon he'll be the one pinch-hitting for Rivera and Butera and Casilla. Delmon Young was rushed back too soon (evidently, a dozen or so PA against Rookie-ball pitching doesn't prepare you to face the likes of Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow and Michael Pineda), but he'll find his stroke soon enough. Tsuyoshi Nishioka is running in Florida and within a couple of weeks will be sending Matt Tolbert's and Casilla's sub-.250 OBPs out of the starting lineup. Danny Valencia is playing very well, just having unsustainably bad luck. Michael Cuddyer doesn't seem like he's doing much, but look at this:

Cuddyer 2008-2010: .269/.337/.451

Cuddyer since 4/12/11: .298/.360/.439

Once he made up the 30 or so PA he missed in spring training, he's played as well as we had any right to expect. Though his power has been lacking, and he hasn't done much with RISP, he's far from a liability.

This lineup is destined to score more runs, which brings me to the best news of all:

The Twins have been held to 3 or fewer runs in 28 of 40 games, and are 4-24 in those games.

Isn't that fantastic? That means the Twins are 9-3 in games in which they score at least 4 runs. (And 2 of the 3 losses were blown saves!) A .750 winning percentage can turn this season around very quickly, especially with the schedule lightening up a bit. They just have to score one more R/G. And they will.

Every team goes the rough spells. Look at the way the Rays and Red Sox started the season. Look at the way the Yankees are playing now. But every team has periods of prolonged success, as well. The 2001 team that was bad enough to go 11-30 was also good enough to start the season 29-12. A surge like that would get the Twins back over .500 by the mid-point of the season. And the '01 Twins weren't the only ones to have hot streaks:

2002: Beginning on June 30th, the Twins went 24-7.

2003: Coming out of the break, the Twins went 45-20 to take the division title.

2004: From August 15th to September 16th, the Twins went 23-7 to take the division title.

2005: They began the season 35-22 before fading to just over .500 when it was all over.

2006: Beginning June 8th, the Twins finished the season 71-33 to steal the division on the last day.

2007: From May 22nd through July 15th, the Twins had a 29-19 run.

2008: From June 16th to the end of August, they went 45-25.

2009: The Twins went 17-4 over the final 3 weeks to steal the division in game 163.

2010: Starting one game after the ASB, they went 46-17 to wrap up the division with 10 games yet to play.

Every Twins team for a decade has had a period of sustained winning. Any of those periods, applied to the 2011 team, would turn the season around.

The good times are coming. Will it be too late when they arrive?

Hell Week

2011-05-16T11:40:00.000-07:00

Twins 2, Tigers 10

Twins 7, Tigers 9

Oh my sweet Lord, when is this horror show going to be over?

Twins 0, Blue Jays 2

Twins 3, Blue Jays 9 (11 innings)

Twins 3, Blue Jays 11

Seriously, why don't they just kick me in the balls?

I'll make Saturday's loss the 4th of the season squarely on the shoulders of the depth. Not just because the Twins only needed one more run over 10 innings of batting in order to win this one. Because James Hoey got absolutely torched in the 11th, and I don't think he'd be up here right now if several other guys hadn't already failed.

For the week, the Twins pitched well enough to win on Friday and Saturday and hit well enough to win on Wednesday. But whatever needs to happen in order for them to lose, happens. They're on a 110-loss pace right now. Almost nobody loses that much. To lose that much, an avalanche of things has to go wrong. And it has.

One could have predicted that a few of the Twins' moves wouldn't pan out, and that there would be some injuries. But to lose Mauer, and Nishioka, and have Casilla suck worse than he ever has, forcing Gardy to overuse Tolbert and Butera and (who are sucking worse than they ever have), let alone Butera's even worse backups? To have Nathan and Morneau each struggle mightily to recover from their 2010 injuries? To have Capps blow more than his share of saves? To have Liriano and Pavano each see significant spikes in HR/9 and BB/9 with corresponding plummets in their K/9, becoming, in effect, completely different pitchers than they were last year? To have every young player called up from AAA sputter and fail to make a positive impact?

A few of those things were bound to happen. But all of them at once? Inconceivable. And yet, here we are.

Bottomless

2011-05-10T15:17:00.000-07:00

Twins 9, Red Sox 2

I don't think the Twins hit the ball a heckuva lot better in this game. They just got a bunch of bleeders to squeak through. A team should get its share of those, though, so it was nice to see. It was also nice to see the other team commit a litany of blunders, for once. And Trevor Plouffe enjoyed an auspicious 2011 debut, 2-4 with a BB and a HR in his 1st AB. Of course, Jim Hoey also enjoyed an auspicious 2011 debut, and look how that's turning out. Still, the SS bar hasn't been set particularly high, so he doesn't have to do too much to be a an improvement.

Unless Francisco Liriano gets his act together, Scott Baker has assumed the mantle of Twins' Ace. He allowed 2 HR, but they were solo HR, and those won't kill you, right Bert? The overall line of 8 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K was excellent, especially against a stacked offense in a hitter's park. Another quiet IP from Joe Nathan to end the game.

Twins 0, Red Sox 4

I was thrilled when the rains came after the 2nd inning. The Twins were only down 1-0, but Clay Buchholz looked like he had good stuff, so the longer the delay, the better. The Twins had just activated Kevin Slowey, and so were in perfect position drop him in for the 3rd and have him take the game into the late innings (which he did). The Sox, meanwhile, had endured this very situation just 3 days earlier, had that game go into extra innings, got a short start the following afternoon, then put 2 relievers on the DL. The fresh reliever they called up on Friday was burned in the 1st game of this series. They had perhaps 6 relievers available, but they would have to cover 7 IP, leaving many of them unavailable for the remainder of the series.

Unfortunately, Terry Francona did something that almost never happens these days: he put his starter back in after a 2+ hour rain delay. Buchholz gave the Sox 3 more IP, and was perhaps even better than he had been at the start. 4 Sox relievers finished the game with an inning apiece, none throwing more than 18 pitches. Only Michael Cuddyer had a good day at the plate.

Twins 5, Red Sox 9

The Twins put up a crooked number in the 1st inning for, what, the 2nd time all season? And you just knew they were going to have to keep tacking on. But 5 R represents a herculean effort for this lineup, so I suppose we shouldn't complain too much about the offense.

Carl Pavano got knocked around - eventually. Though he gave up a big inning in the 3rd, most of the balls in play were unfielded grounders, including the 2-R single he allowed to Adrian Gonzalez that slipped under his own glove. There were DPs unturned. 3 errors in this game leading to 2 unearned runs. With better defense, it's closer. However, Pavano and Jose Mijares were legitimately cuffed all over the field in the later innings - liners right and left. No Ks for Pavano in 5 IP. He's got some adjustments to make. Another good IP from Nathan, though.

Twins 1, Red Sox 2 (11 innings)

This game, had the Twins won, could have salvaged the series and the road trip. Nick Blackburn pitched as well as he can, allowing 0 HR and striking out 5 in 6.1 IP. Glen Perkins and Jose Mijares followed with 3.2 IP of scoreless relief. But the Twins' limp bench did them in again, as Matt Tolbert, Ben Revere and Rene Rivera combined to go 0-15 with 2 GIDP and 5 K, including 0-5 with 2 K with RISP. If they go 1-5 instead, we're probably talking about a win, here. This is the 3rd loss of the season that I'll pin on the non-depth.

Friday night's victory was the Twins' 1st at Fenway park since the final weekend of 2007, so there's some consolation there. Even good Twins teams haven't fared well in Boston. But there's still no sign of them snapping out of the team-wide funk that has them once again at the bottom of the standings. I wish had something more hopeful to say, but...

2nd Split: 6-10

2011-05-08T23:23:00.000-07:00

Overall Record: 12-20

4th in AL Central by 9.5 games

Other splits: 6-10

Now 1/5 of the way through the season, the Twins are maintaining their 100 loss pace. There were a couple of promising 3-game winning streaks during this split, but it was framed by consecutive losses that featured shutouts and blowouts. However, the last 16 games are defined for me by what came in the middle: a humiliating 6-game skid. 3 losses at home in which the Twins looked like they neither belonged nor wanted to be on the field. 3 tight, mistake-filled losses in Kansas City, where the Twins hadn't been swept in over a decade. I would have expected at least one win in each series, which would have been enough for the Twins to tread water and remain within striking distance of .500.

Incredibly, the injury situation got worse. Delmon Young missed the entire split with a strained oblique. Jim Thome followed him a few days later. Jason Repko eventually went down with a sore quad. That left Gardy no choice but to fill out nearly every lineup with 3-4 players who didn't make the squad out of spring training. It's tough to win with a AAAA lineup, especially when 11 of the 16 games take place on the road. Only 1 week into May, the Twins have already had to call up 10 players from Rochester.

There was some progress on the hitting front. They doubled their HR output from the 1st split to a whopping 10 long balls. The walk rate improved. Michael Cuddyer and Danny Valencia have been getting better results, joining Denard Span and Jason Kubel as credible regulars. But the backups have done exceedingly poorly, particularly at catcher, where Joe Mauer's absence is felt every single game. It doesn't look as though Alexi Casilla is going to put it together, and Justin Morneau is producing the way we're used to seeing him hit in September (when he's healthy enough to be on the field in September, that is). It all came out in the wash - the offense remained basically flat when compared to the 1st 16 games. Which is to say, it still sucks.

No such ambiguity about the pitching - it definitely got worse. Scott Baker and Brian Duensing have been excellent, and Matt Capps and Glen Perkins continue to do solid work in the 'pen. Joe Nathan is showing signs of finding himself again. But, no-hitter or not, Francisco Liriano's control still looks frighteningly shaky, and Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano are getting tagged all over the field. Dusty Hughes earned a demotion back to Rochester, and Jim Hoey looks headed in that direction. Jose Mijares is the bullpen's answer to Liriano. Altogether, they averaged over 5 earned runs a game in this split.

And they didn't get much help from the defense, which committed another 11 E which resulted in 16 UER. Think about that: 1 extra run per game on average from shoddy defense. Part of it is people trying to do too much, but a lot of it comes from guys who are exposed by playing everyday play. Bench players or minor leaguers who aren't mentally consistent enough to thrive at the highest level. But who else are the Twins going to run out there?

Health is everything now. Young should be ready to return this weekend. Thome and Nishioka shouldn't be too far behind. But Mauer still isn't doing any catching, and there's no timetable yet for his return. I don't see how the Twins can go too far without him. But with 50% of the next split taking place at home, and 13 of the 16 games taking place against opponents with losing records, this is certainly an opportunity for them to start to turn things around, particularly as the uninjured regulars continue to warm up.

Bold prediction: The Twins will be closer to .500 16 games from now.

The Most Unimpressive

2011-05-05T09:42:00.000-07:00

Twins 1, White Sox 0

Like every other Fantasy Baseball owner (who didn't drop him), I had Francisco Liriano on the bench for this game. So, naturally, the SOB pulls out the 1st CG shutout of his career. On the way to that, he managed to hand out another 6 BB while striking out only 2. My league scores those, so in that sense I'm glad I had him on the bench. But Liriano managed to get 27 outs from 24 balls in play, pitching the 1st no-hitter for the Twins since Eric Milton's in September of 1999. (I was working nights in those days, and that game started at 11:00 AM on a Saturday in order to accommodate a Gopher football game that night, so I slept through it. Yet another reason to be glad the Twins are out of the Metrodome.)

According to Game Scores, this was about the most unimpressive no-hitter in the last 30 years. Of course, that's like me saying that the 2006 Cardinals are the worst team ever to win a World Series. I'm sure that really bugs them every time they put their rings on. Things had been so bad for Liriano - his spot in the rotation was apparently in jeopardy - and for the Twins as a whole. They needed something good to happen, anything to spark them out of their slump. And while DIPS people will discount this accomplishment as a quirk of luck, I would remind them that the balls the Sox put in play were generally pretty poorly hit. How much of that is a credit to Liriano and how much a result of facing a Sox lineup that is every bit as cold as the Twins' I don't know. But anytime a pitcher can hold a team of Major League batters hitless for a full 9 innings, the guy probably deserves some props.

The control problems Liriano continued to show certainly don't make me any more confident about what he'll be able to give in his next start. I'm very much hoping that the Twins will use Thursday's off day to give him some extra rest, starting Nick Blackburn on regular rest for Monday's finale in Boston. After throwing 123 pitches, I'm sure he could use an extra day. And I'd much rather have him pitching at home against the Tigers. Because if he walks 6 against the Red Sox, he's going to get killed.

During his meetings with pitching coach Rick Anderson between starts, it was determined that Liriano would avoid using his 2-seamer for awhile. That's his GB pitch, and it was immediately missed, as he gave up more flies than grounders for just the second time this season. But most of those flies came off his changeup, and they tended to be popups. Mixed in properly, it can obviously be an effective pitch, especially if he can get back to getting swings-and-misses with his slider on the other side of the plate. He still needs to do a much better job of throwing strike one, though: he started 19 of 30 plate appearances in this game with a ball.

Whatever you think of the quality of this performance, it was absolutely necessary, because the Twins still can't hit a lick. Jason Kubel excepted, of course. His HR accounted for the only run of the game. I liked the aggressiveness I saw on the bases, though. Danny Valencia tested Juan Pierre's noodle arm and stretched a single into the game's only 2B. And though he was thrown out thanks to a friendly bounce off the wall, Alexi Casilla was right to try to gain second after Edwin Jackson threw past 1st on Casilla's 2-out bunt single. Even after the power comes online, the Twins won't be their best unless they force the issue like that.

Twins 3 White Sox 2

These 2 free-falling teams each battled to be the one to give this game away. The Sox managed a whopping 6 H in this one, despite facing a starter in Blackburn who has averaged 9+ H/9 for his career so far. The Twins' pitchers helped them make up for that by issuing 5 BB and 3 HBP. The Sox declined that generosity by getting picked off, caught stealing, and hitting into 2 DPs.

For their part, the Sox gave the Twins 4 BB, an extra base on an error, and a critical gift base hit when Omar Vizquel failed to cover 1B on Matt Tolbert's sac bunt. The Twins reciprocated by getting picked off twice and caught on an attempted steal of 3B with 2 outs. The Vizquel gaffe proved to be the difference in the game, though, as the Twins used that extra out to score 2 R. But they gave one of them back in the 8th with a Drew Butera PB. C'mon, which of you guys wants to lose this game most? Attaway, White Sox.

Though the Twins did basically nothing in this series to show that they are on their way out of the woods, they did establish that their recent dominance over the Sox and at US Cellular Field is still in play for 2011. Let that be in everybody's heads the next time these 2 teams connect. For the time being, the Twins proved conclusively that they are not the most unimpressive team in the division. And that makes me damn proud.

Pressing, Depressing

2011-05-03T15:54:00.000-07:00

Twins 3, Royals 4

This is the 2nd loss of the season that I'm going to pin squarely on the shoulders of the Twins inadequate depth. Between 9 H (5 for extra bases) and 3 BB, 8 different guys in the lineup reached base at least once. The one who didn't: Drew Butera, who ended 3 innings with men on base, including hanging Danny Valencia out to dry on a missed squeeze bunt. Any kind of rally sustaining PAs from him might have given the Twins' pitchers a bigger cushion.

Scott Baker was good enough that it almost didn't matter. He lasted into the 7th, when he was relieved with 1 out by the freshly called up Alex Burnett. Burnett got the last 2 outs of that inning, and the 1st of the 8th before allowing a 2B to Wilson Betemit. Matt Capps was warming in the bullpen, and had needed just 6 pitches to complete his inning the day before. But Gardy elected to save him for a save opportunity that would never come, and instead rely upon a young reliever who didn't earn a spot on the opening day roster to protect a 1-run lead with the tying run in scoring position.

And Burnett actually did his job, though he got into trouble by falling behind just about everybody. It was the defense that did him in, as Alexi Casilla clanged a one-hopper to his glove side, and then Butera threw the ball into CF while attempting to gun down super fast PR Jarrod Dyson. That let the tying run score and put the winning run at 3B with just one out. After a BB, the winning run came home on a little flare behind 3B that Casilla flagged down but couldn't get to the plate in time to stop Dyson. Had either play been made, the Twins would have taken a lead into the 9th - the slower Betemit would likely have stayed put on a short fly to the SS.

Twins 2, Royals 11

On Saturday, the Twins managed to get themselves shut down on 2 H by Sean O'Sullivan, a starter so erratic that he nearly threw half his pitches out of the strike zone. Actually, he threw more than half his pitches out of the zone, since several of the balls the Twins put in play were plummeting below the knees. Incredibly, they were lucky to get the 1st H (it was an attempted sac bunt that drew a wild throw) and both R, one of which scored on a DP (thank goodness for the extra out the Royals gave), and the other on another throwing error that should have ended the inning. Altogether, the Twins drew 7 BB, and had men on base nearly constantly for the 1st 6 innings, but could only get what the royals handed to them.

The Twins handed one back in the 3rd on a bounced relay throw from "2B" Michael Cuddyer on what should have been an inning-ending DP. The Royals took one on a no-doubter HR from Billy Butler. And the Twins gave another one away when rookie Rene Tosoni played a leadoff single into a triple with an ill-advised dive. Brian Duensing took a tough-luck loss, though he deserved to allow only 1 ER.

The wheels came off in the 8th once again. Joe Nathan gave up a 2B to Butler, then retired 2 of the next 3 around an IBB. He made one huge mistake: hitting Matt Treanor (a BA under .200 - shouldn't he be on our team?) with 3-2 pitch to load the bases. Gardy went to Jose Mijares, who did his job by getting the lefty to hit a weak-ass ground ball. Too weak for Cuddyer, who had no play by the time he reached it, allowing an insurance run to score. Jim Hoey came on and walked in another insurance run, then got a routine grounder. The throw went to Justin Morneau, who simply didn't catch the ball. 2 more R. Then a 3-run bomb to Alex Gordon. Then another weak grounder that Cuddyer didn't have the range to turn into an out. Then a bloop down the LF line that Tosoni bobbled, allowing the final R to score. When the dust settled, a tight game had turned into a laugher. I didn't think it was funny, though.

Twins 3, Royals 10

Time for a closed-door team meeting, at which Denard Span spoke up to try to inspire his teammates. Too eager to make his actions speak as loudly as his words, he went hitless in 5 AB while seeing a total of 13 pitches. That on a day when his teammates once again walked 7 times. Let it come to you, Denard.

Carl Pavano walked away looking like he didn't know how to pitch, and took his frustrations out on a garbage can in the dugout. You can't do it all yourself, Carl. But he wasn't exactly cuffed around until the 6th inning. Everything that happened before that was the fault of more shoddy IF defense, and Cuddyer wasn't even in the lineup on this day. Pavano was lucky to get an unassisted putout on a chopper to the right of the mound when both Morneau and Luke Hughes charged the ball and nobody covered 1B. Later, the Twins botched a rundown on a pickoff throw when Morneau got in the way of Pavano, who had rotated in to cover 1B, and caught the ball behind the retreating baserunner. That extra out would turn into a run. The Twins gave the Royals 2 extra outs in the 4th, both courtesy of Casilla bobbles. Slow it down, Alexi. Or maybe get a new glove.

Casilla had his best day of the year at the plate, with 2 3B and a BB. Morneau finally got his 1st tater of the year, just barely sneaking one over the RF fence. Jason Kubel continued his scorching hitting, going 1 for 2 with 2 BB to raise his line to .354/.406/.510. Glen Perkins had another solid outing in relief. That's it for the positives.

In contrast to the listless effort they gave in the previous series, the intensity on the part of every Twins player to be the one to lift the team out of this slump was palpable in KC. But the results were no better, as though they were tangled in a knot that gets tighter the more they struggle. This funk now most definitely mental as much as it is physical, and they may require some shock to the system to get themselves out of it.

Notes:

To that end, Kevin Slowey pitched 5.2 IP at Fort Myers yesterday and is ready to be activated from the DL. That could happen in a starting capacity if Francisco Liriano or Nick Blackburn fail to pull themselves together.
Kyle Gibson had his 4th consecutive strong outing at Rochester. Through 5 GS he has 26 IP, 22 H, 10 ER, 3 HR, 4 BB and 27 K for a 1.00 WHIP and 3.46 ERA. He's giving every indication that he'll be ready for a June call-up should the opportunity arise.
Trevor Plouffe has shaken off his brutal spring to put up some very strong numbers in his 1st few weeks with the Red Wings. He's batting .282/.344/.590 with 4 2B, 3B, and 6 HR. The reviews on his defense are still mixed, but he's got to look like an upgrade to Casilla right now.

April Review

2011-05-01T08:46:00.000-07:00

Twins' Record: 9-17

4th in AL Central by 9 games

Hey, it could have been worse - according to the Pythagorean W-L, the Twins should actually be 7-19!

This was a historical bad opening month for them. They set a franchise record for April losses, and finished at the bottom of the league standings in R, HR, SLG, OPS and ERA. As a team, they've hit .233/.291/.322 - worse than the career averages of Nick Punto. As a team. Only 2 players have BA over .250, and just 3 have OBP over .300 and SLG% over .350. Only 3 players have double-digit BB%. Michael Cuddyer leads them in HR with 3. A team that was supposed to be emphasizing speed has just 11 SB, and no player has more than 2. No hitting + no walking + no power + no aggressive baserunning = no scoring.

Half the rotation has generated more poor starts than good. The bullpen did pretty well for the 1st couple of weeks, but then suffered meltdown after meltdown. In a remarkable surprise, the only reliever with significant appearances who's been consistently reliable is Glen Perkins. Twins pitchers have suffered from a higher than average BABIP, but they've also hurt themselves by walking 91 batters in 26 games, placing them 10th in the AL in a category in which Gardy's teams have always been among the best in the league.

Shoddy defense has also hurt the Twins, though not in the way we might have expected. The outfielders generally had a pretty good month, with Denard Span, Jason Kubel and Delmon Young all rating positively on most of the metrics. The infielders grade out as roughly average or poor, though. For the month, the defense committed 17 E, leading to 16 unearned runs, ranking them 8th and 12th in the AL in those respective categories.

To be fair, there have been a slew of injuries, including several which struck positions at which the Twins had particularly poor depth. Joe Mauer's start wasn't nearly to his standard, but his replacements haven't hit half as well as he was doing. Tsuyoshi Nishioka didn't last 6 games before breaking his leg; his loss has invited increased ABs from Matt Tolbert and rookie Luke Hughes. Kevin Slowey went on the DL after just 3 appearances, opening a revolving door for mediocre relievers to be rushed to the Major League 'pen.

And it's been an especially difficult schedule to this point, with just 10 home games. Half of the opponents faced so far finished last season with winning records. That, plus some ill-timed blown saves, kept the Twins from winning their 1st 6 series, but at least they were usually in the games. Just when things seemed to be looking up, they staggered into May on a miserable losing streak, which included a 3-game sweep in which they were outscored 29-6. It was their worst start since they opened the 2006 season at 9-16.

The similarities to 2006 go beyond the W-L record. Through 25 games, that team was hitting .251/.309/.366, with virtually the same number of BB, HBP, SF, SH, GIDP, Net SB and XBH - albeit twice as many HR. That power difference, plus a better BABIP, helped them to score 17 more runs in one fewer game. But their pitching was even worse, with a 6.35 ERA and a staggering 37 HR allowed in 214 IP. That team also staggered into May on a miserable losing streak, which included a 3-game sweep in which they were outscored 33-1!

The 2006 Twins rebounded to win at least 15 games in every subsequent month of the season, eventually earning the division title. They were trailing the Tigers, who would make the postseason as the wild card, by 8 games, and were also behind the previous season's World Series Champs, the White Sox. The 2011 Twins are 9 games out of 1st place in the AL Central, but they trail the Indians and Royals, and like the 2001 Twins and the 2003 Royals, neither one of those teams is likely to sustain their hot starts to a playoff spot. The true contenders are the Tigers, who lead the Twins by just 2.5 games, and the Sox, who are tied with the Twins in the cellar.

This Twins team can definitely bounce back. The schedule is going to get easier, although we won't stat to see that for a couple weeks yet. But more importantly, this is a talented team. Hardly anybody is performing remotely close to their established standards. They're all slumping deeply, horribly, together. Anybody can beat a team that's going through that. Eventually, though, they'll all get hot together. And when they do, no one will be able to stop them.

Ugly grades follow. I'm only going to mention hitters with at least 29 PA (to give Nishioka a break) and pitchers with at least 8 IP (your relief is palpable, Jeff Manship!):

Getting It Done

Jason Kubel - On a team where just about everybody's OPS is under .700, his is over .900. He's holding his own vs. LHP. And he's actually been an asset in the OF so far. The Twins' April MVP.

Denard Span - He took about 10 days off from drawing BB in the middle of the month, and I'd like to see a few more XBH, but he's otherwise delivered. His defense in CF has been superb. Why he's not running more, I have no idea.

Brian Duensing - He's averaged nearly 7 IP/GS, and is pacing the staff in ERA, BB/9 and HR/9. Throw out his 1st 3 batters faced in NYC, and he looks even better.

Scott Baker - 3 magnificent starts in a row in which he looked like the poor man's Ace we saw in 2008. Leading the starters in K/9 and WHIP.

Glen Perkins - I couldn't be more surprised that he's the one member of the bullpen who hasn't struggled. He's been a little lucky on balls in play, but he's limited BB and kept the ball in the yard.

So Far, So Good

Matt Capps - 1 too many HR allowed to the Rays, but otherwise a solid start. Props for being the only Twins pitcher not to issue a BB this month.

Need To Pick It Up

Joe Mauer - Apparently he wasn't fit when the season opened. That's probably because he wasn't ready for spring training when it was time to report. If he's over his sickness, he needs to get down to Fort Myers and start catching, even if it's just for a few innings at a time at first. His "replacements" are absolutely killing the team.

Justin Morneau - He seems to have put his concussion symptoms behind him. Now he's just got to get back into the flow of playing again.

Michael Cuddyer - Another slow starter who didn't get his reps in during spring training. I'm disappointed in his power numbers, yet he's leading the team in HR. Ugh.

Delmon Young - Skipped half of spring training, hit the crap out of the ball when he finally got into Grapefruit League games, then abruptly stopped hitting once the regular season started. On the DL trying to get loose.

Jim Thome - Injuries to other players have forced him into way more games than he should be playing, especially vs. LHP. The discipline is still there. Now we need to see the power.

Danny Valencia - At no point in his professional baseball career has he posted a full-season BABIP lower than .310. This month it was at .225. His BB rate is excellent. He'll be fine.

Alexi Casilla - However bad you thought he was, he's not this bad. I hope he gets another couple of weeks to warm up. The tools are still there for him to be decent if he can just get out of his own way.

Drew Butera - The average NL pitcher hits better than him. He would have to be the best catch-and-throw guy ever to justify his pathetic hitting. But he's not.

Luke Hughes - A guy who really should just be playing against LHP has been forced into some fairly regular duty. Still better than...

Matt Tolbert - The only Twins hitter who has yet to draw a BB. A "scrappy" guy who has yet to steal a base. Not a great player, but he can do better than this.

Jason Repko - I like the BB rate. 24 PA in 26 games seems reasonable. For what he is, these aren't terrible numbers, but he's capable of better.

Francisco Liriano - What's your freakin' problem? Just throw the ball the way you did last year! Jeez...

Carl Pavano - Too many BB, not enough K, too many HR.

Nick Blackburn - If he can't keep the ball in the park, he's screwed. 1.6 HR/9 this month.

Jose Mijares - 7 BB in 8 IP isn't going to work, no matter how well everything else is going.

Joe Nathan - His demotion from the Closer job was probably the most depressing thing about this month. It had to be done - he simply didn't have his velocity or command. His last few appearances have been pretty good (2.2 IP, H, IBB, HBP, 4 K), so he may be on the upswing.

Dusty Hughes - Note: if somebody isn't good enough to stay on the Royals' roster, you probably shouldn't want him, either.

Carnage

2011-04-29T13:58:00.000-07:00

Twins 2, Rays 8

Twins 3, Rays 15

Twins 1, Rays 6

Even though everything appeared to hunky-dory at the end of the weekend's mini-sweep of the Indians, and the team got an extra day off with a rainout on Tuesday night, they somehow showed up to the ballpark in worse shape than when they'd left it more than 72 hours earlier. Delmon Young wasn't ready to play after a week on the shelf, and had to be placed on the DL. Jim Thome and Jason Repko had nagging, day-to-day injuries that kept them out of the lineup for the series. Carl Pavano was the latest to catch the flu, pushing back his expected start this weekend.

So, once again Gardy was forced to fill out lineup cards inundated with the scrubs, and the results were predictably pathetic. Thome would have been particularly useful against the 3 RHPs the Rays threw in the series. Toss in the fact that Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel didn't hit in the same games, and you've got a lot of quick, easy innings for the Rays' talented young starters. To top it all off, the weather was horrible. The end result was a Twins squad that, top to bottom, looked like it didn't want to be there, and played accordingly. For the series, they were outscored 29-6 by a Rays team that came in hitting just about as badly as the Twins had this season.

I won't go into any of the individual performances. I find Francisco Liriano's total lack of command absolutely mystifying and infuriating, but I don't have anything smart to say about it. I'm a little puzzled by what the Twins opted to do logistically this week, though.

With Pavano sick, the plan was evidently to push his next scheduled turn back to Sunday. That's fine, but I don't see why it necessitated giving a spot start to a replacement level pitcher on Thursday. Scott Baker last pitched a week ago Thursday, and Brian Duensing pitched on Saturday. Either one of those guys could have comfortably thrown one half of the double-header. The other could start Friday's series in KC on extra rest. For Saturday, they could call up Kevin Slowey to go 3-4 innings, then hand the ball to Glen Perkins for another 3 or so. Or call up Kyle Gibson, the Twins' #1 or #2 prospect (depending who you ask). In his last 3 GS, he's allowed 4 ER on 10 H and 4 BB in 17 IP with 17 K. He would have been pitching on 3 days' rest, but so was Anthony Swarzak.

Ah, Swarzak. I guess there was no harm in tendering him a contract, but I would have much rather seen him banished from the 40-man roster instead of Rob Delaney. He was terrible at AAA last year, and then he was terrible in the Venezuelan Winter League in the offseason. In his last 3 GS, he allowed 11 ER on 18 H and 5 BB in 15.2 IP with 7 K. On Thursday night, he allowed 5 ER on 8 H and 1 BB in 5.1 IP with 1 K. Whoa - didn't see that coming! He was promptly returned to the minors. Please, can that be the last we see of him?

Eric Hacker wouldn't have been a much better option, but he was originally slated start on Thursday. At least he was already on the 25-man roster. But he was used up in long-relief on Wednesday when Liriano lasted just 3+ IP. Question: why is tomorrow's scheduled starter the 1st guy up in the 'pen when tonight's starter struggles? There are 7 guys in the bullpen. All of them just had at least 2 days off. If you give all of them except Hacker 1 IP on Wednesday, everybody but Joe Nathan should be available to go on Thursday, too, right? Duensing ought to be able to throw an inning or 2 on Wednesday and still be OK for Saturday, right? I would have done everything possible to avoid using Swarzak. But I guess I just see the world differently than Bill Smith does.

On to KC, where the Royals are coming off an 0-6 road trip. They're just as cold as the Twins. Something's got to give! At least the rotation is set up to make things hard on their offense. If Thome can return, the Twins may have enough offense to put this ugly week behind them.

Bless the Rains

2011-04-25T22:01:00.000-07:00

Twins vs. Indians, postponed

Would it be hyperbole to say that this rainout was the best thing to happen to the Twins all season? Neither Justin Morneau nor Delmon Young were in the announced lineup, meaning a 4th straight game with a 2-man bench and a batting order featuring 3 of Jason Repko, Drew Butera, Matt Tolbert, Luke Hughes and Steve Holm, in addition to Alexi Casilla. That murderer's row helped the Twins put up 7 R over the previous 3 games, an anemic output even by their pathetic standards.

Thanks to Mother Nature, a game that would have been played with the Twins at their weakest will now be made up after the All-Star break. Barring any unforeseen setbacks, Joe Mauer and Tsuyoshi Nishioka will be back in the lineup by then. Everyone should have shaken off the effects of their shortened spring training and be fully into the flow of the season. Coming into the game, the Indians couldn't have been hotter, and the Twins couldn't have been colder - those situations should be at least more equalized later in the summer. And by late July Bill Smith should be making moves to strengthen the Twins' shortcomings, whereas the Indians will probably looking to unload Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore for more prospects. It will be a lot easier to make this game a W at another time. Phew!

Twins 10, Indians 3

Justin Morneau is back. And I don't just mean that Gardy finally was able to write his name into the cleanup spot after a week battling the flu. He hit like he used to, like he hasn't all season, driving the ball up the middle and the opposite way. One of those was the game-breaking hit, a 2-run single after the Indians had opted to intentionally BB Jason Kubel to load the bases. Hopefully we've seen the last of that.

10 runs! 13 hits! 5 walks! This is the offense we thought we had going into the season. Repko and Casilla kept the line moving with 2 H apiece, twice setting up crooked number innings. To top it off, Joe Nathan finished the game with a dominant, vintage inning, striking out 2 and needing just 13 pitches to retire the side.

Twins 4, Indians 3

3B coach Steve Liddle and the baserunners need to get on the same page. What should have been an insurmountable 3rd-inning outburst was reduced to just 2 R thanks to 2 guys getting hosed at the plate by Shin-Soo Choo. Casilla was first; he got a late sign from Liddle, so he decided to look into RF himself just as Liddle emphatically put up the stop sign. Morneau followed with a booming 2-R double that short-hopped the wall in CF. Michael Cuddyer slipped a single into RF in the next AB. On that play, Liddle's hold was again late, but meek, a sort of half-hearted "Stop?" just as Morneau went past to his doom.

Target Field kept 4 balls in the yard that might have been HR in a lot of other parks. Thankfully for the Twins, a replay review found that Michael Brantley's drive struck the top corner of the limestone facing of the short porch in RF. Jim Thome clobbered 2 shots that bounced high off the 18' wall in the RF corner. And Kubel's game-winning double hit high off the big wall in right center. Kubel has been a beast all year; now with Cuddyer, Thome and Morneau starting to heat up, things could get pretty fun if Delmon Young can get himself back on track.

Over the weekend, the Indians, Royals and White Sox were swept, while the Twins and Tigers went unbeaten. That tightened the standings slightly, and sent the Sox into the cellar. The Twins are just 4 games out of 1st place, with their worst baseball of the season hopefully behind them.

Out of Their Depth

2011-04-22T14:03:00.000-07:00

Twins 5, Orioles 3

Francisco Liriano pitches into the 7th inning for his 1st QS of the year. But I actually liked his previous performance better. Until the 7th, the O's didn't hit the ball any harder than KC did, but managed just 2 H as the BABIP gods smiled on Frankie for a change. But he had a brutal 2/5 K/BB ratio for the game, and only one of the ball-four pitches was even close to being a strike. The 2 HR in the 7th came on hangers way up in the zone. Why can't he locate? Nice to get a win from him, but he's still not where he needs to be to carry this team.

You know it's your night when you get 3 RBI on 2 H from Drew Butera, Alexi Casilla draws a BB to load the bases, and an insurance run comes home on a WP. And they needed every bit of it, as the Twins' closer came on and served up yet another HR in the bottom of the 9th. Spectacular debut for Jim Hoey as the setup guy, though. Hopefully he can build on that.

Twins 0, Orioles 11

If you're going to give up 11, you might as well not score any.

Joe Nathan is starting to remind me of Superman after he gave up his powers. (Did I just date myself?)

Twins 4, Orioles 5

I had a notion to pin a couple of the losses in Tampa on the Twins' pathetic bench players. But with 2 losses coming on blown leads in the 9th and the other not particularly close, I didn't think the charge would stick. This game, though, is on their hands. With Joe Mauer and Tsuyoshi Nishioka on the DL and Justin Morneau and Delmon Young out with the flu, Gardy was forced to start both Jason Kubel and Jim Thome against a LHP, plus fill out the lineup with Jason Repko, Luke Hughes, Steve Holm and Matt Tolbert. That foursome combined to go 1 for 15 with a BB, and the H was a bunt single. Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, Thome and Danny Valencia all reached base twice, so the bottom of the order had plenty of chances to extend rallies and knock in runs. But they didn't, because most of them don't belong in the Majors, or if they do, it's because of something other than their (in)ability to hit. Zach Britton was apparently battling an illness during the game, but even in his weakened state he was too much for the Twins' scrubs.

And still, with all that working against them, they came within a few feet of a game-tying HR on the final swing of the night. Argh! I'm going to remind you of this loss when the tight race rolls around in September.

Twins 3, Orioles 1

Until everybody gets healthy and the bats wake up, this is what it's going to take for the Twins to win. Scott Baker was at his best: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K. That's 2 very good starts in a row for him, lowering his ERA to 3.24 and his WHIP to 1.12, with nearly 9 K/9. Those are the ace-type numbers that he's capable of, and will need to continue to put up, especially with Liriano still struggling with his control.

2 HR in the same game! 2 straight days with a HR has Cuddyer's OPS up over .700! Now, if we could just start hitting them with somebody on base...

1st Split: 6-10

2011-04-19T15:19:00.000-07:00

5th in AL Central by 6 games

Click here for a reminder of why I do these.

Last fall, I advocated a quiet offseason for the Twins. Their resources were somewhat limited, and there was no way of knowing which of the many players coming back from down seasons and injuries would fail to bounce back in 2011. If it turned out that everyone was healthy and productive, they could spend on luxury upgrades to an already successful team. But if it turned out that one or more positions had broken down, they would be in position to shore up those specific areas. Unfortunately, that strategy, combined with a fairly unimpressive slate of prospects at AAA, would mean that they would begin the season with a disquieting lack of depth, especially at the up-the-middle positions and 1B.

Needless to say, the Twins haven't been healthy or productive so far. It started in spring training, when Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano all joined the program late due to lingering physical troubles from the offseason. Kevin Slowey and Tsuyoshi Nishioka hit the DL after the 1st week of the season. Mauer joined them a week later. Now Morneau is sick. That's forced Cuddyer to start more than half of his games in the IF, where he's even more of a defensive liability. Drew Butera is now the primary catcher, with AAA filler Steve Holm as the backup. AAA filler Eric Hacker has been called up to fill in for Slowey. What began the season as a pretty good starting roster has become inundated with replacement level scrubs.

The hitters who missed half of spring training haven't done a thing at the plate. Mauer (.235/.289/.265), Morneau (.208/.250/.302), Cuddyer (.228/.279/.281) and Young (.228/.286/.281) have yet to put a ball in the seats in over 200 combined PA. The terrible BA are exacerbated by a team-wide fear of drawing walks: the Twins are last in the AL in that category. Add that to their MLB-low 5 HR, and it's not surprising to find them at the bottom of the leader board in OBP, SLG%, IsoP, OPS and RS. We heard a lot in the offseason about how the front office was trying to add some team speed. That has resulted in 7 SB so far, tied for 10th in the league. Nishioka has been hurt and Casilla can't get on base, but Denard Span (.313/.343/.422) has been at 1B plenty, and he has as many steals (1) as Jason Kubel (.316/.361/.491). Those two, incidentally, got their reps in during spring training.

The pitching, despite some rather loud setbacks, has largely been decent. After sleepwalking through the 1st 2 games of the season, they've allowed 53 R over the last 14 games for an ERA comfortably under 4.00. Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing, Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn have all been solid, averaging about 6 IP/GS with good ERAs and (for them) K/9 - especially if you give the first 3 a mulligan on their shaky, season-opening innings. Liriano has struggled, mainly due to terrible command and somewhat reduced velocity (related to a shortened spring training, perhaps?). The bullpen has had a couple of bright spots, but those are overshadowed by the failures of Joe Nathan and Matt Capps, who have blown 3 saves between them. Dusty Hughes and Jeff Manship have been horrible, with Manship earning a demotion to AAA yesterday. Hopefully we've seen the last of him.

The defense hasn't been stellar, but it's been a pleasant surprise in a lot of ways. Nishioka had a very jittery debut in the field, but the rest of the team has made just 7 E. They've resulted in 4 unearned runs so far, though I think Cuddyer should have been charged with an E and UER at the end of Kansas City's big inning vs. Liriano. The surprise has been the play of the corner OF, where Young and Kubel have made a ton of catches at the fringes of their range. Maybe those would have been easier catches with better fielders, but they've made the plays they were capable of so far.

It's been a flat-out lousy start. But, thanks to the fact that several of their opponents have been scuffling offensively as well, the Twins have managed to stay in most of the games so far. In fact, if Nathan and Capps had done their jobs, this could have been a .500 split. That's extraordinary when you think of how all-around awfully the Twins have played. The good news: this is only 1/10th of the season, they're only 1.5 games behind Detroit and 1 behind the White Sox (the true contenders for the division title), and there's nowhere to go but up.

Bold Prediction: The Twins will hit at least 12 HR over the next 16 games.

Save Me

2011-04-17T21:46:00.000-07:00

Twins 3, Rays 4 (10 innings)

Twins 2, Rays 5

Twins 3, Rays 4

Twins 4, Rays 2

Any time a Closer blows a save, it tends to overshadow everything that came before it in the game. Whatever the circumstances leading up to it, all that guy had to do was hold the lead for one inning and his team would have had a win in the books. The significance of the Closer is doubly emphasized when the offense promptly retakes the lead in the top of the 10th, but the other Closer comes in and also blows a save in the bottom half. And it is tripled when the same 2 guys go out there 2 days later and give up late-inning runs, again costing the team a win. And it gets even a little more emphasis from the fact that the SP in those 2 games had completely shut down the opposition, allowing just 1 R on 8 H and 3 BB with 13 K in 15 IP.

It's easy to blame this series loss on Joe Nathan and Matt Capps. After all, if they had done their jobs, the Twins would have walked away from Tropicana Field with 3 wins instead of 3 losses. But I'd like to make sure the offense gets its fair share of the blame. In those losing efforts, the hitters went 3 for 23 (.130) with RISP. Even productive outs in many cases might have resulted in the 1 or 2 extra runs the team needed to put the game away, but they couldn't muster those, either.

It would be nice to pin that futility on the lack of depth at the up-the-middle positions - Luke Hughes and Steve Holm had chances to sustain a couple of rallies on Saturday and didn't. But just about everybody in the lineup has been guilty of that at one time or another. When Casilla and Span set the table, Morneau doesn't hit, and the rallies fizzle. When he and Thome do hit, Delmon and Cuddyer don't, and the rallies fizzle. When they hit, Casilla doesn't, and the rallies fizzle. Nobody's getting the timely hits right now.

With neither the defense nor the bullpen looking terribly sharp in the early-going either, at least the starting pitching has been strong. In this series, all 4 starters were still on the mound in the 7th inning. Nick Blackburn's QS through 6 IP was quickly forgotten when he served up a no-out, 2-run HR in the 7th, but he'd pitched 5 stellar shutout innings prior to seeing the wheels start to come off in the 6th. The starters have definitely stepped up and done their part to help carry the offense through this slump. With them pitching so well, the hitters don't have to do too much more to get this thing turned around.

Next stop: Baltimore, where the Orioles have lost 7 in a row. It's still the road, it's the AL East. But it's also a good opportunity to come home with a couple more wins.

Notes:

Joe Mauer's vague but persistent soreness sent him to the DL after Thursday night's game with what was initially diagnosed as bilateral leg weakness. By the end of the weekend it appeared that the cause was a viral infection which caused him to lose about 12 pounds in a matter of days. He seems to be on the mend already, and should be more or less back to full strength by the time his DL stint is up at the end of the month.
Nathan has been demoted to low-leverage situations until he can get himself back to form. I don't know how many strong outings he'll need to have to reclaim the Closer job from Capps, but I do expect him to improve as the season goes along.
Denard Span and Jason Kubel were 2 of the guys from whom I expected bounce-back seasons in 2011, and they're each off to great starts. Span is hitting .339/.371/.458, while Kubel's 2nd straight game with a HR lifted his line to .321/.368/.509. They are the only guys currently in the lineup who are enjoying BABIPs above the league average. Those will come down eventually, so they'd each better start working counts and drawing walks the way they've shown us they can in recent seasons if they want to keep up their OBPs.
Joe Benson kept hitting this weekend, adding a 3B and raising his line to .385/.442/.615, with a K% that is presently just under 18%. So far, so good there.
There are 2 other prospects who I'd especially like to see work their way into the Twins' 2012 plans. Chris Parmelee could make himself into a viable lefty platoon option in the OF, perhaps replacing Jason Kubel. But, like Benson, he needs to hit well enough early in order to earn a quick promotion to Rochester. He hit his 1st HR of the season today and is off to a .357/.372/.548 start. Needs to walk more, though.
The other is Rene Tosoni, who is trying to bounce back from an injury-shortened 2010. He would make a nice upgrade to Jason Repko, since he can do all the things Repko does, plus hit. He's already got a 9-game hitting streak which has him at .324/.381/.676 with 4 2B and 3 HR.

Better...

2011-04-14T11:54:00.000-07:00

Twins 4, Royals 3 (10 innings)

Twins 5, Royals 10

9 runs in 2 games. Not kicking ass yet, but definitely an improvement. The Twins saw 7 of 9 starters reach base in each game, including multi-hit efforts from Denard Span, Matt Tolbert, Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Luke Hughes. Still not slugging very much (just 4 XBH - all doubles), or working counts (4 BB) or creating havoc on the basepaths (1 SB), though. All of those elements will have to be in place before the offense can really take off. Nice to see some of the BAs starting to come up, though.

The back end of the bullpen is working fabulously so far. Liberated from the Closer label, Matt Capps is free to to be a setup workhorse, locking down the 8th inning but often putting out fires in the 7th, too. Joe Nathan and Jose Mijares have kept the opposition quiet since their jittery opening weekend. Dusty Hughes combined with them to shut down the Royals over the last 4 IP of Tuesday night's game on just 50 pitches.

Much has been made of Gardy's pre-game comment that he had asked Francisco Liriano to try to pitch to contact more. Liriano certainly followed that game plan, allowing 19 of the 24 batters he faced to put the ball in play. Those batters accumulated 8 H, all in a hellish 4th inning. In the other 4 IP Liriano completed, he retired 13 batters quietly (Tolbert's throwing error required an extra out), including 4 K and 0 BB. He was averaged just over 3 pitches/PA in the game.

There's a happy medium, I think, in which Liriano would generally pitch to contact, but revert to trying to strike everyone out with RISP. Yesterday, he had a 1-2 count on Billy Butler and an 0-2 count on Wilson Betemit, but didn't try to put either one away with his unhittable slider down and in. Johan Santana was phenomenal at changing his approach with runners on, one of the reasons his career strand rate is so high. Liriano needs to learn to do that, too.

Still, I can't be too upset about the pitches that were actually put into play in that inning. They were just about all at or below the knees. 6 of the 8 H touched the ground in the IF, just a step or so out of the reach of the fielders. The 2 that didn't were a soft liner off the end of the bat and a chip-shot blooper over the drawn-in IF. The Royals didn't really hit anything hard off Liriano all day. On most days, the sort of performance he gave on the mound should have had him beginning the 8th inning with a 3-4 hitter and a very low pitch count.

That being the case, I was surprised that he got a lightning-quick hook when Betemit drew a leadoff BB in the 6th. It was Liriano's only BB of the game. If it had come on 4 straight well out of the zone, I could understand it. But it was a 7-pitch PA, and the 3-2 pitch was no more than belt high over the outer half of the plate. If the ump calls Betemit out there, would Gardy still have yanked Frankie after the next baserunner? I know the offense had just put up a crooked number, and you don't want to risk giving the momentum back, but don't you have to show a little more confidence in your starter there?

Over the last few years, it seems like the Royals get off to a good start thanks to a high team BA, then make easy outs for the next 4 months, then get feisty again in September when they finally ditch their lousy veterans in favor of the kids who've been clobbering AAA all summer. Looks like they may be in store for more of the same in 2011.

Note:

Joe Benson was going to have to have a tremendous season in order to get the Twins to put him in their plans for 2012 (and consider letting Cuddyer walk after this season). The odds of that happening were lengthened significantly when he was optioned to AA New Britain to start the season, even though he hit .251/.336/.527 there last season on his way to earning the organization's Player of the Year award. I guess they want to see more BA and fewer Ks from him before they'll move him up to Rochester. So far, so good. In his 1st 7 games, Benson hit .393/.433/.571 with 2 doubles, 1 HR, 3/3 SB and an OF assist. His 21.4% K rate over that week is still high, but a major improvement over what he did last year. He isn't likely to keep that slash line up in the coming weeks, but a fast start means that even a few average weeks to follow will have his numbers looking pretty darn good by the end of April. We need to get him up to AAA ASAP.

Good Pitching Beats Bad Hitting

2011-04-11T14:26:00.000-07:00

Twins 2, Athletics 1

Twins 0, Athletics 1

Twins 3, Athletics 5

5 runs in 3 games.

I know the A's have good pitching. Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez and Brandon McCarthy are all former top prospects who look poised to make good on their promise. The A's relief corps was a strength last year, and they used free agency to add a prominent member from each of the Twins' (Brian Fuentes) and Rays' (Grant Balfour) dispersed bullpens. Despite the slew of errors they committed in the 1st week of the season, the A's have a solid defense, with average or better defenders at just about every position. It was tough to score on them last year, and it looks like it's going to be even tougher this year.

However...

That doesn't account for the magnitude of offensive ineptitude we saw on display this weekend. The Twins were already in a horrific funk from their opening road trip, and the A's excellent run prevention merely exacerbated was already a big problem. Now, through 3 series, the Twins rank 2nd to last in the AL in BA, OBP, SLG% and WAR, and dead last in HR, IsoP, SB and BB%. That means they aren't getting on base, and when they do, it's only to 1B, and then they stay there.

At the end of Saturday's game I was stewing a bit to have allowed only 2 runs in 2 games and yet lost one. (And those 2 runs! BB, WP, E on a pickoff attempt, SF was how the damage was done on Friday. The next day, it was a 2-out single, WP, E6. Those are 2 excellent illustrations of how to give away a run to the other team.) But by the end of the weekend, I was just happy the Twins had managed to get through their home opening series without being swept.

Why is this happening to the offense right now? I have a theory. It may be a bit simplistic, but check this out:

Guys who had 60+ PA in Grapefruit League games:

Danny Valencia - .194/.265/.290, HR

Luke Hughes - 1 for 7

Denard Span - .286/.342/.400, HR

Jason Repko - 0 for 2

Jason Kubel - .300/.323/.367

Tsuyoshi Nishioka - .208/.269/.250, SB

Alexi Casilla - .167/.211/.278, SB

Total: .224/.278/.317, 6 2B, 2 HR, 2 SB

That's lousy. Though, in fairness to Repko, what are 2 AB? And to Hughes, that was a loud out in the 8th inning on Friday night. Valencia deserves to have a better line - he's been robbed a few times already. Nishioka was struggling with the MLB strike zone - lots of called 3rd strikes - but when he put the ball in play he was 5 for 16. Casilla should get about 200 more AB before we decide whether he can hit or not. You'd like to see more power from Kubel, but the average is there, and he's come through against some tough LHP. Span is doing fine. They're off to a slow start; as a group, their OPS should be at least .100 points higher.

Guys who had <60 PA in Grapefruit League games:

Matt Tolbert - 1 for 5

Delmon Young - .188/.212/.219

Justin Morneau - .258/.303/.355

Jim Thome - .167/.250/.444, HR

Drew Butera - 1 for 4

Michael Cuddyer - .107/.194/.107

Joe Mauer - .233/.303/.267

Total: .203/.258/.270, 7 2B, HR

Now, at a glance, that may not seem to be too much worse than what the other guys are doing. But, with the exception of 9 decent (for them) AB from Tolbert and Butera, this is the heart of the order. On a day when Thome is the DH, they hit 3-7 in the lineup (or 2-6 now that Nishioka is on the DL). Their combined OPS should be more than .300 points higher. They're struggling to hit line drives. Most of them are having trouble getting the ball out of the IF. They look out of sync at the plate. When several of those guys were being held out of the spring lineups for various injury reasons, we kept hearing that the goal was to get them ready to play on April 1st. It doesn't appear that they accomplished that goal.

They will break out eventually, of course. It may not happen this week - Kansas City is off to a hot start and Tampa Bay has good pitching and defense, too. But the Royals have a terrible lineup, and the Rays are the only team in the league hitting worse than the Twins. There will probably be a bunch more low-scoring games, but the Twins should win a few.

Par for the Course

2011-04-08T08:46:00.000-07:00

Twins 3, Yankees 4

Twins 5, Yankees 4 (10 innings)

Twins at Yankees (postponed)

Twins 3, Yankees 4

These games followed a similar blueprint. The Twins' starter struggled with command, putting baserunners on in front of a big XBH which put the Twins in an early hole. The offense struggled to make that up against the Yanks' strong pitching staff.

For Scott Baker on Monday, it was a HBP on an 0-2 pitch in front of A-Rod's drive down the LF line in the 1st. Then he walked Nick Swisher in front of Jorge Posada's deep fly to RF in the 2nd. I'm with Bert Blyleven: solo HR won't kill you (unless you give up 4 or 5). If Baker had made the Yankees hit their way on, he might have allowed 1-2 fewer runs. Props to him for settling down and making himself the 1st Twins starter to complete 6 IP, though.

On Tuesday, Brian Duensing walked the 1st batter of the game in front of a single and a 3-run HR. He really settled down after that, allowing just 1 more ER (another HR) and 4 H, 1 BB while getting 21 outs. Props to him on being the 1st Twins starter to complete 7 IP. I wish they didn't need the 1st inning to get warmed up, though.

Francisco Liriano's start on Wednesday also boiled down to a bad inning. That was the 4th, when he - guess what? - walked the leadoff man. That, plus a groundball single through the hole on the right side, put 2 guys on for the big mistake he made in the game - an RBI 2B on a 1-2 pitch. Overall, Liriano's line was pretty similar to that of his 1st start: 5 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K. At least he kept the ball in the yard!

The Twins' bullpen was very impressive in the series, throwing 9 scoreless innings, including 3 shutdown combined IP from Matt Capps and Joe Nathan from the 8th-10th on Tuesday. Holding the Yankees to 4 R/G is actually no small feat. But it should have been better. Of the 12 R the Twins allowed, 4 came from the guys who homered, 3 came from guys who hit their way on, and 5 came from guys the Twins put on via BB or HBP. The margin of error when they face the Yanks is so small, they can never afford to give away bases or outs. Would any of these 1-run games have turned out differently if the Twins had shown more Twins-like control?

The offense continued their anemic hitting. All three Yankees starters threw QS. The Twins hitters were able to muster just 5 R and 17 baserunners in 19 combined IP from Ivan Nova, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. Sabathia left the game having retired 17 straight Twins. Fortunately, the Yankees' relievers lost the strike zone and the Twins were able to get a couple of soft hits to fall in, stealing game 2 of the series.

It ended on a particularly sour note when Tsuyoshi Nishioka, playing in just his 6th MLB game, broke his leg while trying to turn a DP at 2B. Ironically, he paid a dear price for his own defensive imprecision: Nick Swisher, whose take-out slide caused the injury, would have been out easily had Nishioka not bounced his relay throw to Morneau in the dirt on the previous play. It doesn't sound like it's too serious (as broken legs go), so hopefully he'll be back in the lineup soon. I'm glad that Luke Hughes will get another chance to show what he can do so soon, but I don't think he's good enough to be more than a platoon player, either. He can only platoon with Matt Tolbert, and the more PAs he gets, the worse off the Twins will be. It didn't take long for the Twins' disconcerting lack of depth at the MI position to be exposed, did it?

The rainout on Wednesday immediately exposed the Twins' top-heavy, East Coast schedule. The only off days the Twins had before September that weren't in the middle of a home stand or a West Coast trip were May 5th and August 11th, and the Yankees are spoken for on both of those dates. So the Twins will have to return to the Bronx in the last 3 weeks of the season. I can't say I'm too disappointed. With them hitting so poorly right now, I've got to believe they'll be in a better flow later in the season. Plus, by then Bill Smith will have made whatever moves he's going to make, and the team that takes the field for the makeup game will be the playoff version of the Twins, not their spring training 1st draft.

A Gardy managed team has never won a series at Yankee stadium. Given recent history, par for this series was 1-3. Whatever happens in September, they've at least done that. Coming home for the opener at 2-4 isn't nearly as inspiring as the 5-2 opening road trip they enjoyed last season. But I'm neither surprised nor disappointed by that outcome. Plenty of good Twins teams have competed in the AL Central despite lousy trips to Toronto and New York. I expect this team to do the same.

False Start

2011-04-04T15:10:00.001-07:00

Twins 3, Blue Jays 13

The 1st inning of the 1st game of the season doesn't count, right? I mean, isn't it just for warmup? No? Whoops.

Twins 1, Blue Jays 6

Blinded by my unwavering confidence in Francisco Liriano's stuff, I overlooked his late-starting and very shaky spring training and started him against the Jays, though he's pitched horribly against them, including yielding 33% of his HR to them last season. Lesson learned. He's already on the bench for his start at Yankee Stadium. I'll play him at home against the Royals.

Anybody wanna get a hit? Thank you, Denard Span. At least somebody around here is rewarding my unwavering confidence in them.

Twins 4, Blue Jays 3

Naturally, after pummeling Carl Pavano and Liriano, the Jays were tamed by Nick Blackburn. Matt Capps came on in the 7th inning to save the Twins from a 2-on, no out situation created by a pair of Jose Mijares BB. That left Glen Perkins for the 8th and Joe Nathan for the 9th. I never thought I'd say this, but I felt a lot more comfortable with Perkins out there.

Great to finally see some signs of life from the offense. Now, if they could just avoid getting thrown out on the basepaths, they might be onto something.

Sunday's 9th inning was such an ordeal that it almost felt like the Twins lost the game. But they did salvage a win, and that was about the best that could have been hoped for in this series. They've finished the schedule in 1st place in 4 of the last 5 seasons, but none of those teams was able to win a series in Toronto, either. Of course, I'd love to see them fair better than usual in NYC this week. But I'm afraid I didn't see anything this weekend to make me think that will happen.

Notes:

Every single MLB team will have at least one series in which they play like crap, as will every single player. Those things are magnified at the beginning of the season, but have no more meaning there than they do in the middle of the summer. So I refuse to draw any conclusions about the team or individual players based on what happened in this series. Let's see how everybody does the next time out.
That goes especially for Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who had a fine spring, especially on defense, then looked pretty weak in his debut. He was a rookie playing in his 1st MLB game on Friday. He was nervous. Some guys can control that better than others. He made a couple of mistakes on routine defensive plays that cost the team at least 2 1st-inning runs. But the error he made on Sunday (leading to another unearned run) was a really tough play, sprinting toward the plate, then throwing back across his body all in one motion. We saw Nick Punto make that play a lot, and it can only be scored an error, but just because Nishi didn't pull it off there doesn't mean he can't play 2B. I bet we'll see him get outs on similar plays as the season moves along.
I read this morning that Span was considered by the Rockies with the 9th overall pick in the 2002 draft. Pretty cool to think that another team considered him to be a top 10 talent.

2011 Twins Preview: Bullpen

2011-03-31T23:13:00.001-07:00

Joe Nathan, CL?

Since he began closing for the Twins in 2004, Nathan has actually been slightly better than Mariano Rivera. But TJS is no trifle to recover from, as Francisco Liriano and Pat Neshek could attest. It doesn't sound like his velocity is there yet on his fastball, and his slider isn't working yet, either. He's trying to add some other secondary pitches, which will probably help him as he ages. But after a spring training in which he was generally effective (only the Phillies got him) but struck out only 3 batters in 8.1 IP against 4 BB, it's clear that he's not himself yet. I think he'll get better as the year goes along, but it could be dicey in the early going.

Expected line: 65 IP, 7.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Matt Capps, CL?

Capps, on the other hand, looks to be healthy and in his prime, so we can expect recent history to repeat itself with him. Whether he's used in the 8th or 9th innings, he's a perfectly solid reliever. Other than a weird year with BABIP and HR/FB in 2009, he's been consistently good since 2007. After seeing Nathan this spring, I'm glad the Twins kept him around for some insurance at the back end of the 'pen.

Expected line: 70 IP, 7.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Jose Mijares, LHP

According to some, Mijares struggled last year. I don't see it. He missed a lot of time with injuries, but when he was in there he was pretty much the same guy we saw in 2009. The BB/9 came down, the HR and K rates stayed about the same. Sure, he gave up a bunch more hits, but the BABIP was a little high at .313, so that will probably even out a bit for this year. He's tough on lefties, and that's probably the most important trait of his given his likely role in the bullpen. Capps is the last guy I'm worried about in this 'pen; Mijares is 2nd to last.

Expected line: 60 IP, 7.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

Kevin Slowey, RHP

All the Twins' starters were pretty much lights-out this spring, so I guess Slowey wound up in the bullpen by virtue of being the only mid-rotation starter without a long-term deal. It's hard to say what to expect from him as a reliever, since there's so little precedence for it in his career. He's held opponents to a .646 OPS in the 1st inning of his GS, and a .683 OPS the 1st time through the batting order. They say he's throwing his fastball a little harder in short stints. I think he'll do pretty well. Though I expect him to find his way back into the rotation at some point during the season (if he sticks around long enough).

Expected line: 100 IP, 6.5 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

Dusty Hughes, LHP

The Twins are very high Hughes, claiming him off waivers from KC at the expense of Rob Delaney. He pitched well against the Twins last year, but was pretty hittable against everybody else. Still, last season's overall line wasn't too bad, and he certainly earned a spot with a strong spring. He gives me yet another reason to decry the senseless loss of Craig Breslow to the A's, but in a lower-leverage role, he could be acceptable.

Expected line: 70 IP, 5.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.10 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Glen Perkins, LHP

If I held the keys to the front office, Perkins wouldn't have been tendered a contract for this year. To his credit, he put together a very nice spring, with a 1.50 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 12 IP. But larger sample of his past couple of years is more telling, and it's not good. He doesn't get lefties out. He doesn't get groundballs. He doesn't strike guys out. I don't see what sort of bullpen role he could thrive in.

Expected line: 40 IP, 4.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP

Jeff Manship, RHP

Almost by default - was he the RHP on the 40-man roster who sucked the least? - Manship took the final spot in the bullpen, despite a Grapefruit League ERA over 5.00. That performance shouldn't come as a surprise, since his career ERA in the Majors is over 5.00, and his ERA at Rochester last year was over 5.00. The decent K rate he had in the lower minors hasn't followed him to the upper levels. He's a replacement player, keeping that low-leverage spot warm until some worthier prospect is ready to come up from the minors and assume it. I hope that happens sooner rather than later.

Expected line: 30 IP, 6.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.00 ERA, 1.55 WHIP

Like the bench, this is a weakness for the Twins, especially at the back end. There are some palatable options down at AAA, like Anthony Slama, Alex Burnett and Kyle Waldrop. One or more of them will probably come up before too long. And Bill Smith has shown over the last 2 seasons a willingness to upgrade the bullpen for the stretch run, so I expect something like that to come in July or August. In the meantime, the starters will have to pitch deep enough into games in order to keep the softer parts of the 'pen from being over-exposed. When they can't, we could be in for some long games.

2011 Twins Preview: Bench

2011-03-30T23:04:00.000-07:00

Jim Thome, DH

Signed to be a bench bat and occasional DH, Thome was forced into regular duty after Justin Morneau went down last year, and responded with his best season since 2002. That was a godsend, providing numerous memorable moments and helping lift the Twins to the division title. With everybody healthy in 2011, he will once again be asked to be a bench bat and occasional DH. He'll normally PH for Alexi Casilla, then be immediately pinch run for. I think he'll do a good job in that role, but nothing like the herculean production he provided last year.

Expected line: .245/.370/.480, 15 2B, 20 HR

Drew Butera, C

At this time last year the Twins had some enviable organizational depth at catcher. Jose Morales and Wilson Ramos were both on the 40-man roster. Each had the potential to hit. Because Ramos was green and Morales was injured, the opening day backup C job fell to Butera. I figured he'd play his way out of it by early summer, but the other guys didn't hit at Rochester, and Butera became best pals with Carl Pavano, so the Twins stuck with him all year. He gave them 44 starts, 155 PA, and hit .197/.237/.296. For some reason, the front office found that satisfactory, because they traded away Ramos and Morales, leaving the upper levels utterly bereft of competent catchers. We're stuck with Butera, who will start at least every 4 games.

Expected line: .190/.230/.285, 7 2B, HR

Jason Repko, OF

He's not much of a hitter, but with Jason Kubel capable of playing either OF corner, I doubt he'll get many starts apart from the 2 days a month Denard Span needs off. His real job is as a PR/defensive upgrade over Kubel or Delmon Young, and he can do that rather well. I like his glove and arm at all 3 OF spots, he's been a high percentage base stealer in his career, he knows how to take a walk, and he shows some occasional pop. A fairly decent 5th OF, all in all.

Expected line: .225/.315/.365, 10 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 5/7 SB

Matt Tolbert, IF

The Twins let Nick Punto walk this offseason, but couldn't resist bringing back a lesser (though younger and less injury-prone) version of him instead. Tolbert has a good glove and runs the bases well, but his bat is pretty limp, so it'll be a step down anytime he replaces one of the regulars at the plate. Well, maybe not Casilla, but we'll see. He hasn't shown anything in the minors that suggests he's better than what he's given in his limited MLB PA, so I have no hopes that he'll do any more than he has in previous years. Watch out for him on that day in Chicago when the wind's blowing out, though.

Expected line: .240/.300/.340, 5 2B, 2 3B, HR, 4/6 SB

This is a terrible bench. Thome is a great, but he doesn't run or play the field. Repko is useful as a late-inning sub, but he wouldn't be too hard to improve upon. Tolbert is replacement level, and Butera might not even be that. None of these guys is an asset with both the bat and the glove. In the days of 7-man bullpens, that kind of bench specialization isn't feasible. There is no one here who can protect Kubel and Thome from LHP. Every time Span, Danny Valencia or Tsuyoshi Nishioka need a day off, there will be a big drop-off in potency from the lineup, to say nothing of the massive drop that happens whenever Butera is in there for Joe Mauer. This is an area of the roster that needs in-season upgrades in the worst way. I'll try to keep track of how many wins these guys cost us over the season.

2011 Season Preview: Rotation

2011-03-29T23:05:00.000-07:00

1. Carl Pavano, RHP

Pavano's name became synonymous with "injury-prone" after he made just 26 GS spanning 145.2 IP with 5.00 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the course of a 4-year, $40M deal with the Yankees. Since coming to the Twins in August of 2009, however, he's been a front-end workhorse, leading the team in GS and IP with a 3.97 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He fell to the Twins in the offseason for the very reasonable price of 2-years, $16.5M. Barring a return from the injury bug, he should earn that easily.

Expected line: 33 GS, 220 IP, 1.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.20 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

2. Francisco Liriano, LHP

Statistical analysis bears out what I observed last season: Liriano gave up more than his share of crappy hits, without which he would have obviously been one of the top pitchers in the league. He's shown this spring that he's still prone to rushing his delivery and losing his command. Time for him to grow up and get himself under control. When he does that, there's nobody better.

Expected line: 33 GS, 210 IP, 2.7 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.00 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

3. Nick Blackburn, RHP

Some folks seem to think that Blackburn's execrable 2010 season was an inevitable result for a guy who allows too many balls in play. I don't buy it. Maybe if he was pitching the same way he did in 2008-2009. But his mechanics were out of whack, his command slipped, he got away from his secondary pitches. He just pitched like crap for a while. He went down to Rochester, figured it out, and finished the season strong, averaging 7 IP/GS with a 3.16 ERA over his final 8 GS. His GB and K rates went up, and his BB and HR rates went down. He should be a competent back end starter this year. No excuses.

Expected line: 33 GS, 210 IP, 1.8 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.50 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

4. Scott Baker, RHP

I have a theory that, while DIPS work well in the broad view, they consistently under or over-rate certain pitchers, because those guys have skills (or lack skills) that the equations haven't been asked to measure. I'm beginning to worry that Baker is one of the guys who gets overrated. His peripherals suggest a pitcher who should be putting up ERAs right around 4.00 every season. But, except for 2008, he hasn't been able to do it. One possible factor: he gives up too many hits (especially XBH) on 0-2 counts. The league allowed a .407 OPS in those counts last year, but Baker gave up .543, including 3 HR. Can he finally fix that and meet his potential? I don't know. Maybe, by this stage in his career, he is what he is.

Expected line: 30 GS, 190 IP, 2.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.30 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

5. Brian Duensing, LHP

Meanwhile, DIPS might be missing something about Duensing. He doesn't blow anybody away with his stuff, but he has good command and mixes his pitches well. Throughout his career he's been able to hold opposing hitters to a fairly low BABIP and keep the ball in the yard. This will be his first opportunity to start full-time since 2008, and it will be interesting to see how well he holds up. His career high in IP is 167.1, and he hasn't thrown that many in a season since 2007. He might be one to take advantage of the frequent off days in September. Like Pavano and Blackburn, he'll be efficient and won't hurt himself. Maybe not the kind of guy you want in a short series, but pretty good over a marathon season.

Expected line: 30 GS, 190 IP, 2.4 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Not the sexiest rotation in the league (unless Pavano's mustache is your thing), but still a strength. With Kevin Slowey in the bullpen and top prospect Kyle Gibson hopefully progressing at AAA, it's also the deepest part of the roster. If everybody stays healthy through the first half, I would expect the front office to trade from that depth in order to upgrade the team for the stretch run.

2011 Twins Preview: Lineup

2011-03-28T09:38:00.000-07:00

With the 25-man roster set, we can now look at the team the Twins will be bringing to Toronto to start the season. Here's the starting lineup I expect to see for just about every game in the early going, regardless of what side the starting pitcher throws from:

1. Denard Span, CF

This lineup consists largely of guys who are neither as good as they showed in 2009 nor as bad as they showed last year. Span is the poster boy for that categorization. Everything that went right for him in the last year of the Dome went wrong in the first year of Target Field. But that's what 3-year averages are for. I've written at length about his prospects for 2011. He's not a good bet to have an IsoP much over .100, but it shouldn't be too far under .100, either. I expect a nice rebound from the IsoD into the .080 range. He should be more confident and a better communicator in CF. And Gardy's desire to run more combined with the unimpressive arms most divisional rivals will be sporting behind the plate should lead to a career high in SB.

Expected* line: .288/.367/.392, 24 2B, 10 3B, 4 HR, 30/40 SB

2. Tsuyoshi Nishioka, 2B

Here's a guy who's probably not as good as his 2010, but is undoubtedly better than his 2009. Whatever you think about his recent history, nobody can be sure how well it will translate from Japan to the big leagues. But he hasn't looked overmatched this spring, hitting .346/.370/.423 with a 2/2 K/BB ratio in a little over 50 PA. In that limited sample, we have seen him make some impressive plays in the field, as well. The power he showed in the JPL can't be expected to appear at Target Field, but the rest of his game should play OK. I think he's capable of surpassing what Orlando Hudson gave the Twins last year.

Expected line: .270/.340/.400, 30 2B, 7 3B, 5 HR, 24/36 SB

3. Joe Mauer, C

Two of the big factors behind Mauer's extraordinary 2009 were about a dozen HR that landed in the 1st or 2nd row in LF, and good health all season long. Target Field may never give those HR back, but I'd settle for the health. When he's whole, Mauer is the best pure hitter in the league, and an elite defensive C as well. With his legs under him in 2011, I look for his numbers to improve across the board this year. Maybe not to the level of his MVP campaign, but more than enough to get him a lot of votes.

Expected line: .330/.410/.510, 35 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 36% CS%

4. Justin Morneau, 1B

The concussion that ended Morneau's season just before the All-Star break brought a premature end to what was shaping up to be an MVP-caliber season. Through July 7th, he was hitting .345/.437/.618 with 18 HR. Then again, impressive 1st-half production was nothing new for him. On July 5th, 2009, he was hitting .323/.399/.601 with 21 HR. On July 10th, 2008, he was at .324/.387/.515 with 14 HR. On July 8th, 2007, his line was .295/.364/.581 with 24 HR. In each of those seasons, his production fell off sharply over the final 2 months of the season. We'll never know whether that would have happened in 2010, too. In 2011, he has to prove that he's back to full strength and capable of sustaining his strong offensive numbers over a full 6 month schedule.

Expected line: .295/.370/.530, 40 2B, 1 3B, 30 HR, 145 G

5. Delmon Young, LF

Last season's breakout should not have come as a surprise to anyone who studied Young's 2009 carefully. He made mechanical adjustments in his swing to start getting more balls in the air. He improved his contact rate significantly. And, though he still loves to swing early in the count, he got wise to the fact that opposing pitchers weren't going to give him a lot of 1st-pitch fastballs down the middle. He started sitting on offspeed stuff, clobbering them when they were in the zone and putting himself ahead in the count when they weren't. Coming into his age-25 season, I expect him to make at least incremental improvements in most phases of his game. Including, one would hope, an increased likelihood of him holding onto the balls he reaches in the OF.

Expected line: .300/.340/.510, 40 2B, 1 3B, 25 HR, 6/9 SB

6. Jason Kubel, DH

Of all the guys I'm analyzing here, nobody benefits from a 3-year average more than Kubel. He had a solid 2008, a sensational 2009, and then a flat 2010. He had basically the same number of PA and AB between '09 and '10, and drew the same number of BB. But he had 25 fewer hits year-over-year, including 12 fewer 2B and 7 fewer HR. Target Field wasn't the culprit, as his .746 OPS there was only marginally worse than the .753 OPS he sported on the road. LHP killed him (as always), but last year was the first in recent memory in which he didn't mangle RHP. His BABIP was about .020 points below his career rates, so write most of 2010's struggles off to bad luck. He'd be better if he didn't face so many lefties, but there's not much on the bench to keep that from happening.

Expected line: .275/.345/.480, 27 2B, 3 3B, 23 HR

7. Michael Cuddyer, RF

At this point, I don't think we're going to see anything new from Cuddyer. He's had a couple of very good years, one injury-plagued disaster, and everything else has been give or take .775 OPS. I'll throw out his first 1100 or so PA (spread over 5 seasons) and just focus on the last 5 years. I don't put much stock in 2008's disjunct playing time caused by a litany of freak injuries. Of the other 4 seasons, 2010 was by far the worst. The lack of power can apparently be attributed to Target Field/sore knee, and at least the 2Bs were there. Of greater concern to me is his IsoD, which from 2006-2008 looked to be settling in around .080, but has slid back to about .065 over the last 2 seasons. Older players should be peaking in that regard as well as HR power, so I'm looking for Cuddyer to step up his game in those categories.

Expected line: .275/.350/.460, 35 2B, 5 3B, 20 HR, 6/8 SB

8. Danny Valencia, 3B

I don't understand why more people aren't high on Valencia. He's hit for a high average at every level, and has earned a midseason promotion in each full season of his professional career. At each new level he struggles with his pitch recognition, but the following spring he lifts his BB% by over 4 points, leading to huge gains in OBP. For whatever reason, he failed to hit any HR during the 1st half last year, but returned to his typical mid-teens power numbers after the Break. A lot of people point to his .345 rookie BABIP as unsustainable and ripe for regression. That may be, but I would point out that the only season in his career in which his BABIP has been below .338 was 2009, when it slipped to about .311. I'll be shocked if it drops under .300 in 2011. He's typically improved in his 2nd season at each level. I'm looking for him to keep it up.

Expected line: .285/.340/.450, 30 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR

9. Alexi Casilla, SS

Casilla is perhaps the most difficult member of the lineup to analyze. He's never played a full season at the Major League level, and his partial seasons have yo-yoed violently between solid for a MI and God-awful. I went into a lot of depth with him (and Nishioka) last month. Basically, as a 26-year-old with over 1000 PA over parts of 5 season in the Majors, Casilla needs to step up now. He has the tools to be a good SS, and has proven that he is a high-percentage base stealer. There's value enough in that, particularly from a #9 hitter who will be most often PH for.

Expected line: .265/.320/.370, 20 2B, 10 3B, 2 HR, 20/25 SB

It's a quality lineup, with plenty of upside relative to last year. Everyone is between the ages of 25 and 32, so nobody should be over their head or over the hill. Valencia's presence for a full season along with rebound seasons from Span, Mauer, Cuddyer and Kubel should result in a more balanced attack and an increase over last season's 781 RS. The lineup is the greatest strength of the team, and should match up with anybody in the division.

*Note the distinction between "Projected" and "Expected." Projections are for the oddsmakers and fantasy analysts. As a fan, I have expectations, which the player will either meet (leaving me satisfied), exceed (leaving me overjoyed) or underperform (leaving me disappointed). The numbers I give here are what will leave me satisfied.

Taking Shape

2011-03-24T09:05:00.000-07:00

The front office has made a series of decisions over the last few days that have brought the Twins' opening day roster into greater focus:

Rotation

They announced that Scott Baker will be the 5th starter, joining Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing. Kevin Slowey will begin the season in the bullpen in a RH version of Duensing's role to begin last season. This is how it should be for the first couple months. Baker has more starter upside than Slowey. Slowey has more upside than Blackburn, but Nick has been a very effective back-end pitcher in 2 of 3 Major League seasons. At the very least, he's shown himself to be durable, which Slowey has not, so using a 'pen assignment to limit Slowey's mileage isn't a bad strategy.

While trade rumors involving Slowey will persist, the Twins would be wise to hold him until they're confident that Kyle Gibson is MLB-ready. In 2008, the rotation they broke camp with didn't hold together for a week. In 2009, they needed about a dozen different starters to get through the season. If they're patient, Slowey will get opportunities to start, and see whether the uptempo approach he began using late last season will translate into greater effectiveness and value in a starting role.

Bullpen

Slowey joins Joe Nathan, Matt Capps and Jose Mijares as locks to make the bullpen. The Twins elected to place Pat Neshek on waivers, from which he was claimed by San Diego. Though he was inexpensive and had an option remaining, they obviously felt that his stuff wasn't progressing enough in the 2nd season following his TJS to make him an effective option, even in their very unsettled bullpen. There was always some question as to whether or not the Twins would want to have Neshek and Anthony Slama in the same bullpen, since they bring similar skills to the table. If Neshek has anything left, he couldn't find a more hospitable environment in which to find it than the best pitcher's park in the weaker league. Good luck to him.

A slew of other cuts brings the candidates for the 3 remaining bullpen spots down to these 5 guys: LHPs Dusty Hughes, Glen Perkins and Scott Diamond and RHPs Jim Hoey and Jeff Manship. By all accounts, Hughes will make the team - the FO loves him and he's pitched effectively this spring. Perkins probably makes it, too - he's out of options and would have to suck pretty hard not to get a chance to stick around, and he's actually been rather good in Grapefruit League games. That's already 3 lefties, so Rule 5 pick Diamond probably misses out. I'm sure the Twins will try to swing a trade with Atlanta in order to keep him in the organization.

Between Hoey and Manship, I think Hoey gets the nod. He struggled early, but has looked solid in his last few appearances. His high-velocity fastball is a unique asset among the Twins' potential middle relievers. Manship is just another strike-thrower with fringy stuff. Like Slowey, but not as good. Slama is also technically still in camp, but his balky shoulder has taken him out of serious consideration. The Twins will probably start him on the DL, delaying any decisions about whether or not to use one of his options until the end of his rehab assignment.

Bench

Luke Hughes and Matt Tolbert are still battling it out for the final bench spot. Hughes picked a most inopportune time to go into an 0 for 16 slump, though he finally broke out of it this afternoon with yet another HR, his team-leading 6th. I hope the decision-makers will look at the power potential and see the strategic value it holds as a way to keep Jason Kubel and Jim Thome from having to face too many lefties. I would expect that decision to come by the end of the weekend.

Notes:

Good thing Nathan isn't going to have to face the Phillies this season!
Kubel has officially entered "Save something for the regular season already!" territory.
In 25 years of following baseball, I have never seen such a fascist line as Liriano's from last night: 3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, HR, 3 BB, 9 K, 76 pitches. Though he wasn't terribly efficient in the first 2 innings, the only baserunners he allowed were on singles and a full count walk. But he was keeping his pitches down and locating pretty well. I think the loooong bottom of the 2nd threw him off. He came out for the 3rd and suddenly was up in the zone and wild. A good one to get out of the way in spring training.
Forbes came out with its annual valuations of the MLB franchises this week. The opening of Target Field sent the Twins rocketing up 21% to #12 overall at $490M. While putting a consistent winner on the field, the franchise has experienced year-over-year growth in revenue and value in each of the last 10 years. I bet the Pohlads are glad contraction never went down!

Irregularly Scheduled

2011-03-18T15:46:00.000-07:00

I took my first look at the Twins' 2011 schedule the other day, and there are some unusual things on the calendar for this year.

First off, the season opens on a Friday. This was, presumably, to keep the World Series from extending into November. I think they could accomplish the same thing by cutting about 2/3 of the off days from October, but I guess the broadcast networks aren't interested in that. Anyway, I was expecting more or less a normal regular season that just began and ended a little early, so I was really surprised to see how few off days the Twins have, especially in the early going. They play 28 games in April, 27 in May, 27 in June, 28 in July (all 3 days off coming over the All-Star Break) and 29 in August.

If you're counting, that leaves just 23 games for September. At that point, I was expecting to see the season end on Sunday, the 25th, maintaining the pattern with just a couple of off days in September and getting the playoffs started before October. But actually, the season ends on Wednesday, the 28th, giving the Twins 5 days off over their final 4 weeks. I guess that leaves plenty of time to make up rainouts (or get acclimated to all the downtime coming in the postseason). Still, that densely packed first 5 months is going to include some brutal stretches, especially a span of 20 straight game days to close out August. Gardy will have to be more conscientious than ever about providing his regulars with breaks in order to keep them from wearing down by the stretch run.

The second surprise in the 2011 schedule is the lopsided distribution of Home/Away games. Through June 8th, the Twins are slated to play 41 road games and just 22 home games. That imbalance will be evened out by the end of July. The Twins were essentially a .500 road team last year, but had the league's best record at home. Bear that in mind: if the Twins are only 4-5 games over .500 by the 2nd week of June, they're actually right on track.

The schedule is also front-loaded with non-divisional games, a collection of opponents against whom the Twins were barely over .500 last year (47-43). But they kicked ass against their divisional rivals (47-25). They play 63 of their 90 interdivisional games in 2011 before the All-Star break. And those 63 games are disproportionately against the AL East (28, with just 17 against the West), the only division in the league against which the Twins had a losing record in 2010. Add in an interleague schedule which includes a series against the defending champs and the usual 6 games against a much improved Brewers team, and it's easy to see that the 1st half sets up to be much more difficult than the 2nd. If they can keep their heads above water through that, they'll be well positioned for a stretch run.

Last year, the Twins were buoyed through their June and early July doldrums by a hot, 21-11 start to the season. That's going to be difficult this season. Through their first 35 games this year, they'll play just 11 times at home. Half of their 24 road games in that stretch will be against AL East powerhouses New York, Boston and Tampa. If they can pull through the 1st 5 weeks of the season anywhere close to .500, be happy. If they can get through it over .500, they'll be sitting pretty.

The 1st week of the season is a nice microcosm of the schedule. The Twins open with 3 games in Toronto and 4 in New York. Since 2006, they're 5-13 (.278 Win%) at Rogers Centre and 3-14 (.176) in Yankee Stadium. It's hard to imagine a less advantageous way for the Twins to begin the season. If they come home from that 1st week 3-4, we should be ecstatic.

The upshot of all this is: be patient. All is not lost if the the Twins are struggling through the first couple months of the season. They should consider themselves in the hunt as long as they're within single digits of the division leader in July. If they are the division leader, they could be on their way to another successful season.

Spring Break

2011-03-15T14:17:00.000-07:00

This being the Twins' only off-day during their Florida schedule, and about halfway through that schedule, and the day after the first round of cuts, it's a good time to weigh on the events of spring training so far.

The biggest thing for me has been the absence of the heart of the Twins' lineup. Thanks to an assortment of nagging/lingering injuries, Joe Mauer (receiving injections of synthetic lubricant after offseason knee surgery), Justin Morneau (the concussion), Delmon Young (sore toe) and Michael Cuddyer (foot wart removal) have combined for 15 PA in official spring games. That was making me very nervous this time last week. But then Morneau and Young showed up in a B game last Wednesday, and have since appeared in Grapefruit League play regularly. Mauer has finally begun catching bullpens and could DH in tomorrow's game. And Cuddyer's foot is healing - he's already ramping up his activities and could get into action by the end of the weekend.

That should make the last 2 weeks of spring training games extra fun as the Twins' regulars scramble to get enough PAs to get their timing down and prove they're in game shape. I imagine them staying in games a little longer than they might have, and playing more on back-to-back days. It's also comforting to know that everyone is expected to be ready by April 1, so we won't have to have Jason Repko or Matt Tolbert in the Opening Day lineup.

Speaking of Tolbert, there is reason to hope he won't make the team. Luke Hughes has been one of the Twins' best hitters so far, batting .361/.385/.778 with 3 2B, 4 HR and 1/1 SB through 13 games and about 40 PA. He's a right-handed stick, and he's showing himself to be capable of spotting at the corner OF positions and all over the IF (though, with his limited range, I can't imagine him ever playing SS when Gardy could just slide Nishioka over). Tolbert, for his part, has hit .240/.286/.240 with 0/2 SB. He's a much better IF glove than Hughes, and probably a faster baserunner. But he's never going to have the bat that Hughes does.

Which of them should be the 25th man on the roster depends on which of these situations everyone thinks is more important:

Jim Thome, pinch-hitting for Alexi Casilla, draws a late-inning BB. We need a PR who can score from 1B on a double, then go in and play the IF.
Jason Kubel comes to the plate with RISP late in the game. The opposing manager can go to the bullpen for their LOOGY. We need a PH who can hit LHP enough to make that pitching change less of a slam-dunk move.

I'm solidly in the camp of #2. If you're really intent on having a PR score all the way from 1st, you can put in Repko and have Cuddyer play 2B the following inning while Repko goes to RF. Or you can just let Hughes run for Thome - he's definitely an upgrade speedwise. There's simply no potential for Repko, Tolbert or Drew Butera to be of any use covering for Kubel at the plate. Hughes could do that, and also be a formidable PH for Casilla or another light hitter if there's a southpaw on the mound late in the game - or if the Twins just want to try to win the game with one swing. Keep hitting Luke Hughes - I want you on the team!

I expected there to be some sort of competition for the back end of the rotation, but Gardy quickly anointed Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing as starters, leaving Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker to compete for the final spot. As much as I like what Slowey can do, I have to pull for Baker. After all, when Slowey's got everything working, he's a solid #3 starter. When Baker puts it all together, he's a poor man's #1, or at least anybody's #2. Carl Pavano (though showing this spring that he knows what he's doing out there) is a really good #3 for me, and everybody else tops out at #4. With Baker in the rotation and pitching to his potential, I think the Twins have a rotation that can match up with just about any team in the AL. With Baker in the 'pen, they're a little soft at the front end.

I'm a little disappointed the Twins didn't keep their options open with Brian Duensing, who has a track record of pitching well out of the 'pen, and has very strong numbers vs. LH batters. However, I can't really argue that his 2nd half stints in the rotation in 2009 and 2010 haven't earned him the opportunity to have a full season as a starter. I think he'll do just fine there.

If Slowey does lose out, he'll either become the long man in the bullpen, or he may be traded. I'd be loathe to give him up too quickly, though. Pitching depth can disappear pretty quickly (as the Dodgers recently found out), and until Kyle Gibson gets enough innings at AAA to prove he's ready for the Show, I think it would behoove the Twins to hoard as many quality pitchers as they can. Slowey has options left, so why not send him to Rochester? Keep him stretched out, impressing opposing scouts, building trade value and ready to step into the Twins' rotation at a moment's notice. That move would have the added benefit of avoiding spot starts from the likes of Jeff Manship or Anthony Swarzak. If everyone pitches well, when midsummer rolls around, Slowey can be a piece of the blockbuster that lands 2011's Roy Oswalt or Dan Haren.

The bullpen seems to be coming together OK. Joe Nathan has had 4 clean outings and one in which he got thumped (though his OF defense didn't do him any favors there). I don't see any reason why he wouldn't be on target to resume his role as Closer. Matt Capps has been terrific in his limited appearances so far. Jose Mijares has been his typical self: hardly dominant, yet putting up solid numbers overall. Pat Neshek and Dusty Hughes look to be on track to earn spots. Assuming one position goes to the 6th starter, that leaves one spot left in the bullpen. Rule 5 pick Scott Diamond has allowed just 1 run in 6 IP, but he's got a lousy 2/6 K/BB ratio. Anthony Slama's sore elbow likely takes him out of the running. Alex Burnett hasn't been too impressive, and James Hoey has been erratic and hittable. Carlos Gutierrez and Kyle Waldrop have faired pretty well so far, and remain on the big league side of camp. Maybe one of them can make it as Burnett did last year.

As for the cuts, I don't think there were any surprises. Everybody who went down in the first wave was either signed to provide minor league depth or a prospect who would clearly benefit from some more seasoning. I was disappointed to see Chris Parmelee and Joe Benson head back to New Britain, though. I understand that the Twins like to take it slow with their prospects, and that neither of those guys has a full season at AA on their resume yet. However, I think they both played well enough in the Eastern League in the 2nd half (after their brief demotions to Fort Myers) that, with their experience in the Arizona Fall League thrown in, they could have been set straight up at Rochester.

They have the potential to fill the roles of Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer in 2012, though that would certainly require them to have pretty awesome seasons in 2011. The savings would be considerable, as Kubel and Cuddyer together make nearly $16M this year. The idea of replacing those two with a couple of serfs (who run better and play better defense) has a lot of appeal for me. Starting Benson and Parmelee at AA makes that dream that much further from reality, though. Sigh.

I guess the other thing that's been interesting to observe so far is the play of Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Nobody was sure of what to expect from him stateside. He was quickly named the everyday 2B, and has hardly looked overmatched in his spring appearances. He's started out .318/.348/.455 with a 1/1 K/BB ratio and 2/2 SB, and he's already made a bunch of sparkling defensive plays. I continue not to worry about him.

That's it until the next round of roster decisions...

Speed Up the Middle

2011-02-11T12:44:00.000-08:00

Things I'm Not Worried About, Part 3

Part 1, Part 2

It's been a low-key offseason for the Twins. That's fine with me - I didn't see any need to tamper too much with a team that won 94 games and finished in the top 5 in the league in scoring and pitching. There will be several new faces in the bullpen; that was inevitable given the FA market for relievers this year. The other major change comes in the middle infield. Those moves were elective.

Last offseason, the Twins traded for JJ Hardy and signed Orlando Hudson to form an elite DP combo. Both had been fairly recent representatives at the All-Star game, and each routinely posted better than average numbers at the plate and in the field. Adding them to the lineup turned what had been a weakness in 2009 into a strength.

After the season, Gardy publicly expressed a desire to improve the team's speed up the middle. There was never any indication that they would try to bring Hudson back - they felt it was time to give Alexi Casilla, a cheaper, faster option, another chance. But it was a surprise when the Twins won the bidding rights to Japanese League batting champ Tsuyoshi Nishioka. It appeared that his acquisition would send Casilla back to a bench role. But the Twins chose instead to deal Hardy to Baltimore for a pair of relief prospects.

That created quite an outcry from Twins fans. After all, Hardy, even in a season weakened by injuries, still managed to outhit the average MLB SS by a little bit, while rating very highly according to the defensive metrics. Nishioka has some good numbers in Japan, but what does that really mean when most NPB position players have been huge disappointments in the States? Casilla has had some flashes of quality play, but has played his way out of jobs in 2007 and 2009. Is he someone we can really count on in 2011? Doesn't entrusting the MI to these two amount to a serious weakening of the team, opening the door for the White Sox to take over the division?

To answer those questions, the last one in particular, I want to get realistic about what the Twins lost in Hudson and Hardy, and what they can expect to get from Nishioka and Casilla in 2011.

What We Lost - Offensively

Hudson has been strangely undervalued over the last couple of seasons, considering he's been playing above-average 2B for that whole time. There seem to be some concerns about his clubhouse presence and, more importantly, his on-field contributions over the course of the season. The Twins found out about that when they saw him hit .243/.311/.340 over the final 4 months of 2010. Here's his overall line was:

.268/.338/.372, 24 2B, 5 3B, 6 HR, 10/13 SB (126 G)

Compare that to the average MLB 2B (per 162 G):

.265/.330/.389, 31 2B, 3 3B, 14 HR, 12/17 SB

And that of all Twins' 2B in 2010:

.261/.329/.379, 32 2B, 7 3B, 10 HR, 12/17 SB

Pretty darn close to exactly average. Add in the fact that all three of his slash lines have diminished over the past couple of seasons, and that 2011 will be his age 33 season, and it's not hard to see why the Twins figured they could do just as well with someone else.

Hardy had a nice little bounce-back season from his horrid 2009 campaign. His BA and OBP were essentially back to the levels of his 2007 season, in which he made the All-Star team. However, he came up 20 HR short of that performance, so his overall line:

.268/.320/.394, 19 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 1/2 SB (101 G)

was, as I mentioned earlier, only slightly better than that of all MLB SS (per 162 G):

.262/.319/.374, 29 2B, 4 3B, 10 HR, 13/19 SB

The guys who filled in for Hardy during his frequent injury absences didn't slug as well, but matched his other slash numbers. All Twins SS in 2010 hit:

.268/.321/.371, 30 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 4/7 SB

That is also just about exactly average, though clearly lacking in the SB department. Hardy is young enough that he could still produce well-above average numbers in a healthy season. But he struggled so much at Target Field (a Punto-esque .252/.313/.340 with 1 HR) that the Twins had some reason to think that his hitting style wasn't a good fit for their new park. And since he had nothing to offer in terms of threatening speed on the bases, the Twins seemed to feel that everybody would be better off if he went elsewhere.

What We Lost - Defensively

Much of the value assessed to Hudson and Hardy comes from their high rating on defense. Hudson's +12 UZR/150 ranked 3rd among all MLB 2B, and Hardy's +12.8 UZR/150 was the best among players with at least 800 innings at the SS position. That sort of excellence will be nearly impossible to replace. Some caveats, though:

2010 wasn't just the best UZR rating for Hudson in a while - it was actually his first positive rating since 2005. However, according to Total Zone he was just about as good in 2006 and 2009 as he was in 2010: a little above average. And by the measure of Defensive Runs Saved, the only negative year of his career was 2008. DRS liked his 2007 just about as much as 2010.

Hardy's UZR has always been in the black, but 2010's rating was the best it's been for him since his first full season in 2007. Then again, TZ and DRS rated those 2 seasons as average and good, respectively. They were much more excited about Hardy's 2008 season, which UZR rated as merely good.

Depending on the metric of choice, a player's defensive value can really fluctuate. There's a lot of subjectivity involved in assessing which balls hit into a defender's area were playable by the "average" fielder. I wouldn't put any serious stock in any one of them - I think an average plus what you observed with your own eyes over the course of the season is a better method. By that measure, I'm not sure either one of those guys was truly elite on defense, but I'm comfortable in assessing each of them as solidly above average.

So despite losing Hudson and Hardy, the Twins' offense will not lose a beat between 2010-2011 so long as their replacements provide average production. Run prevention will take a step back unless the new guys prove to be plus defenders. Can Casilla and Nishioka deliver that?

What We're Getting - Offensively

Casilla has been maddeningly inconsistent in his short MLB career. He flopped when handed the 2B job after the Twins traded Luis Castillo at the deadline in 2007. He started 2008 in the minors, then took advantage of a depleted MI in May of that year and had a dandy season. Based on that, the 2B job was again his to lose in 2009, and lose it he did, with a wretched season both at the plate and in the field. Relegated to a bench role in 2010 due to being out of options, he put together a solid campaign in limited duty last season.

Add it all up, and you have a .249/.306/.327 hitter through nearly 1100 PA. Some might say that's enough to define his ability, but I'm not so sure. I don't like to include player's first tastes of the big leagues when trying to determine what they're capable of as veteran's in their prime. It tends to understate their abilities. (I also wouldn't want to use Jim Thome's prime years to determine what should be expected of him at age 40.) I think 3-year averages are a pretty fair measure of where a hitter is at this stage of his career. I like 5-year averages even better for guys who have been in the league 6+ years.

In Casilla's case, we'll have to make due with the smaller sample. Throwing out his rotten first 210 PA from 2006-2007 leaves him with a line of .256/.316/.344 over 863 PA. That's close enough to the average SS in BA and OBP, though plenty lacking in power. The lack of power is somewhat offset by fantastically efficient base stealing: he's 24/27 since 2008. Just because he doesn't hit a lot of 2Bs doesn't mean he can't get himself into scoring position by other means.

If that's what Casilla reduces down to, that's not such a bad thing from a #9 hitter. But we can't be sure he actually would produce numbers like that. He's never come anywhere close to them. He's either been a lot better or far worse:

2010 MLB SS: .262/.319/.374, 29 2B, 4 3B, 10 HR, 13/19 SB

Casilla 2007: .222/.256/.259, 5 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 11/12 SB (204 PA)

Casilla 2008: .281/.333/.374, 15 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 7/9 SB (437 PA)

Casilla 2009: .202/.280/.259, 7 2B, 3 3B, 0 HR, 11/11 SB (256 PA)

Casilla 2010: .276/.331/.395, 7 2B, 4 3B, 1 HR, 6/7 SB (170 PA)

He's yo-yoed between being one of the worst hitters in baseball to being slightly better than average. Truly feast or famine. He's never had a full season's worth of PA, so if that changes we might see more moderate results. For now, I see a young player who has proven in 2 of the last 3 seasons that he's capable of holding his own as a major league MI. Entering his age 26 season, I expect him to deliver that kind of performance again.

Nishioka is a tough guy to track down. I could only find reasonably complete numbers for his NPB career for 2007-2009. I also came across some very incomplete career numbers which happened to contain inaccurate BABIPs. However, by piecing the two together and doing a little forensic algebra (and you wondered when you'd need that in the real world!), I've come up with a pretty accurate picture of his progression as a hitter.

2003: 11 PA, 9 AB, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 TB Age 18

2004: .255/.304/.396, 212 AB, 54 H, 6 HR, 84 TB, 8/8 SB, Age 19

2005: .268/.320/.394, 447 AB, 120 H, 4 HR, 176 TB, 41/50 SB Age 20

He got a cup of coffee with the big club in 2003 just after he turned 19. He played about 1/3 of the season the following year, then more or less stuck for good in 2005 as a 20 year old. In those first 3 up-and-down seasons, in what amounted to just over one full-time season's worth of PA, Nishioka showed promise. His combined line for those 1st 700 or so PA was something like .265/.317/.397. That's good pop for a MI and some prolific base-stealing, but a mediocre BA and low BB rate. Still, for a very young player at what seems to be a more or less AAA level of play, he was holding his own. With his feet sufficiently wet, Nishioka took a step forward in his age 21 season:

2006: .282/.358/.390, 426 AB, 120 H, 4 HR, 166 TB, 33/50 SB Age 21

2007: .300/.366/.393, 559 PA, 148 H, 50 BB, 73 K, 3 HR, 194 TB, 27/40 SB Age 22

Here we see much improved BA and OBP, but a big drop-off in IsoP and SB efficiency. This, to me, represents a change in approach. Whether because a coach got through to him or he simply got acclimated to the league, Nishioka became much more selective at the plate, drawing more walks and getting better pitches to hit. He cut down on his swing, becoming more of a singles hitter when he did put the ball in play. This new, contact-oriented approach, combined with his good (though clearly diminished as he filled out) speed, established a new BABIP baseline well north of .300.

2008: .300/.357/.463, 522 PA, 142 H, 36 BB, 68 K, 13 HR, 219 TB, 18/29 SB Age 23

Another step forward. Nishioka added power to his game without increasing his K%. His BB% fell off a bit, but thanks to fewer SF and more HBP, his OBP only took a modest hit.

2009: .260/.361/.427, 531 PA, 118 H, 67 BB, 76 K, 14 HR, 194 TB, 26/36 SB Age 24

Here's a massive step forward in BB% while maintaining the IsoP and putting up the best SB% in years. Yet the season is a bit of a disappointment thanks to the lowest BA since his rookie year. His K% did tick up a bit, but the real culprit is a .284 BABIP, a huge drop after 3 straight seasons well over .300. Given a typical (for him) BABIP of about .330, his line would have been something like .297/.392/.465. His overall game improved once again - he was just unlucky that year.

2010: .346/.423/.482, 676 PA, 206 H, 80 BB, 71 K, 11 HR, 287 TB, 22/33 SB Age 25

The Wheel of Fortune spun the other way for Nishioka last year. Everything fell in, leaving him with an absurdly high .389 BABIP. His BB% and IsoP slipped back a bit from the career highs he established in 2009, but he was also able to reduce his strikeout rate back to 14.5%. Given a more ordinary .330 BABIP here, his line turns into .295/.379/.431 - revealing 2009 as actually the more impressive season peripherals-wise. Still, that's plenty good production from a MI table-setter.

Nick Nelson downplayed Nishioka's potential in this glass-half-empty post in December. It's certainly fair to mention Kazuo Matsui as a cautionary tale, and just because Nishioka got 200+ hits in a season doesn't mean he's going to be the next Ichiro. However, I found a lot of Nick's comments to be unreasonably negative. To say that, other than 2010, Nishioka's career was "unspectacular" is an insult to the people who sent him to 4 All-Star games and the National team prior to that season. He's clearly exceptionally good for his position and his league. Then Nick suggests that "no one would get excited" about the .287/.361/.427 line Nishioka put up from 2007-2009 if it came from a AAA player. Really? From a SS? In his age 22-24 seasons? Compare the numbers I listed above with what Trevor Plouffe did at the same age for the Red Wings:

.256/.292/.420 Age 22

.260/.313/.407 Age 23

.244/.300/.430 Age 24

If he'd put up Nishioka's numbers, with plus defense for his league, do you think he'd still be behind Matt Tolbert on the depth chart? I doubt he'd have spent 2010 in the minors, or that the Twins ever would have traded for JJ Hardy.

Nick dismisses Nishoka's 2010 as an "outlier" because of the unsustainable BABIP. Okay, but why should that good luck year be dismissed and not the bad luck from 2009? Wasn't that just as much a BABIP outlier from what he'd established the previous 3 seasons? Why disparage him as a .284 career hitter before 2010, when that figure includes not only the unfortunate 2009 but also 700 or so PA while feeling his way as a teenager at his nation's highest level? Why not throw out the ancient history from when he was a kid and just look at everything he's done over the last 4 seasons (the numbers I happen to feel extremely confident are correct)? Then his line is:

.300/.380/.443, 2291 PA, 15.1 K%, 9.9 BB%

Again, if your AAA MI is giving you that, unless you've already got Jeter and Cano, that guy is coming to the Show.

Nishioka has made adjustments throughout his NPB career. He's made himself into a premier player over there, and has earned his shot in the big leagues. It's pretty clear that Japanese power doesn't translate well, but that's not a huge part of his game. He's not an efficient base stealer, but I'm sure he'll get plenty of chances nonetheless. I expect him to be able to at least match what the Twins got from their 2Bs in 2010. In other words, I'll take the over on a .708 OPS and 12 SB.

What We're Getting - Defensively

There's no way to know this, of course. So far Casilla has ranked very poorly defensively across all the metrics. But that's at 2B, and he'll most likely be playing SS in 2011. You might say that someone who has a bad zone rating there won't do any better at the more demanding position. Fair enough, but consider this: there's more than one way to be a plus defender. You can have above-average range, enabling you to get to more balls than the typical guy and converting more chances into outs. Or you can have average range but be very sure-handed, committing fewer than usual errors and, therefore, converting more chances into outs. Or you can do both of those things, as Hudson and Hardy did last year.

Breaking down Casilla's UZR this way, we see that the bulk of his negative assessment as a fielder comes from the error side of things. We've all seen that from him from time to time - a lapse in concentration or sloppy fundamentals. (Interestingly, over 90% of his negative value as a 2B came from 2007 and 2009, when he was also hitting like crap. He took his ABs with him into the field, I guess.) He's only had a negative range component in one year, though. Despite his poor ratings as a 2B, there doesn't appear to be a systemic reason to expect below-average range from him at SS.

He's logged only 233.1 big league innings at that position so far, so the sample size is small enough to really distort attempted projections. But in that brief time, Casilla has been rated somewhere between average and very good at SS. He has the tools, it's his natural position, he's maturing as a player. We should expect him to play SS at least as well as anybody, and he's capable of playing it better than most.

As for Nishioka, the track record for Gold Glove Japanese MI isn't great. However, using Matsui as a comp once again, we see that while he struggled mightily as a SS, he actually rated out well as a 2B, slightly above average for his career. He was 29 when he started playing that position regularly - 3 years older than Nishioka will be on opening day. There may be an adjustment to grass & dirt infields and more aggressive baserunners. But I won't look for Nishioka to do any worse at the keystone than Matsui did. I expect him to rate as an above-average defender at 2B.

Conclusion

Casilla will probably never hit as many HR as he did in 2008 again, especially not at Target Field. There will be some loss of power from the SS spot. But his superior foot speed should enable him to stretch an extra base out of some balls where Hardy would have had to hold up. As he showed in his limited PA in 2010, you don't have to put a bunch of balls over the fence to slug about .400. Casilla should definitely have a higher OBP, way more steals, and score more runs than Hardy did.

Nishioka will have a tough adjustment to make coming to the US. Not just to the quality of play, but to the English submersion, and to being an ocean away from his home. However, he's shown himself to be capable of making adjustments. If his 2009-2010 NPB numbers represent his ceiling, they should translate into at least the sort of numbers Hudson put up last year.

Defensively, we're almost certainly going to see a drop-off. Not because Casilla and Nishioka aren't good defenders, but because Hudson and Hardy each had such outstanding seasons in the field last year. But defense can still be a plus for the Twins, and Casilla and Nishioka may be able to improve on the one area in which Hudson and Hardy were lacking last season: turning DPs.

I expect the Twins' new MI combo to provide at least the same production at the plate as their predecessors, while vastly improving upon their performance on the bases. As a result, they will not be a detriment to the offense. Defensively, while perhaps not exceptional, they should also be an asset. The loss of the Hudson and Hardy shouldn't result in a net loss in the overall run differential when all is said and done.

As long as Casilla and Nishioka don't get hurt, that is...

Too Much Pitching

2011-01-27T14:39:00.000-08:00

Twins claim LHP Dusty off waivers from the Royals; designate RHP Rob Delaney for assignment.

In the grand scheme of things, this isn't a big deal. Whether the Twins prefer one middle reliever over another is probably of little consequence, as neither is necessarily going to earn a spot in the Twins' new-look bullpen. Hughes has perhaps a little more to recommend him, in that he's actually pitched 70.1 IP in the Majors with pretty decent results. And he's left-handed, though his platoon splits so far don't show so much disparity that he should be thought of as a LOOGY.

Then again, Delaney showed improvement in some aspects of his game in his 2nd go-around at Rochester. His BB/9 went from 2.8 to 2.6, and he really turned on the strikeouts, going from 7.2 K/9 up to 10.4. His H/9 and HR/9 went the wrong way, though, and he had a particularly poor season with respect to stranding baserunners - his own and those he inherited. Of course, that may have been triggered by the tremendous workload he's shouldered over the last two seasons. He went from 69 IP in 2007 to 65 IP in 2008 (+13 IP in the AFL) to 83 IP in 2009 and 81 IP last year. 68-70 IP is more typical of relievers these days. Give the poor guy a little rest and see what he can do this year.

After all, there are 3 major skills I would look for in a middle relief fireman:

Ability to miss bats. The surest way to keep those inherited RISP from coming home is to keep the batter from putting the ball in play
Ability to throw strikes. You don't want a reliever coming into a men-on situation to make things worse by falling into a hitter's count or giving up free passes.
Ability to induce ground balls. Nothing kills a rally faster than a GIDP.

Delaney isn't much a ground ball guy, but he has the first two qualities in spades. In fact, of all the relievers the Twins currently have on their 40-man roster, the only ones who have a better combination of K/9 and BB/9 than Delaney are working their way back from TJS. Though he wasn't a sure thing to make the opening day roster, I would think he had as good a chance as anyone else the Twins are bringing in. Which brings me to this:

"[Hughes] will just add to the competition for our bullpen spots," Twins General Manager Bill Smith said. "We lost a lot of guys that were with us at the end of the season, so we're adding to the depth."

Um, Bill, how does swapping one reliever for another add to the depth? Delaney has to clear waivers now. If somebody else claims him, the Twins won't have added anything. If the idea was to add bullpen depth, they should have dropped a non-reliever from the 40-man roster to clear space for Hughes.

The present state of the 40-man roster is pretty baffling. Never mind that it only has 2 catchers on it at the moment, and that one of them can't hit. The Twins have just 9 relievers on the roster, competing for spots in what we can assume will be a 7-man bullpen. Personally, I'd like to have at least 2 guys in camp for every question mark. The Twins have at least 4 question marks in the 'pen right now, and that's not including Joe Nathan.

What really puzzles me, though, is that there are presently 12 starters on the 40-man, and it's a case of quantity over quality. There are 6 starters for 5 rotation spots on the 25-man roster: Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing. There are 7 guys for the 5 rotation spots at Rochester: Jeff Manship, Anthony Swarzak, David Bromberg, Eric Hacker and non-roster invitees Kyle Gibson, Chuck James and Yorman Bazardo. The other 2 spots go to former top prospects: Deolis Guerra, who just had a nice little winter in Venezuela but is still likely headed for a repeat at AA, and Glen Perkins, who should have been non-tendered.

Of course, some of those guys, such as Duensing and Perkins, even Manship, could be considered as bullpen guys. Maybe that's the way the organization is looking at them already. That still wouldn't straighten things out in my mind, though. That's because the 40-man roster is for:

Guys on the active roster.
Guys who are ready to fill in when somebody gets hurt.
Prospects you want to protect from the Rule 5 draft.

I think it's extremely likely that 6 of these starters from the 40-man won't make the active roster. Of those, 2 qualify as prospects: Guerra and Bromberg. The other 4 have all reached their ceiling as no better than 5th starters. What good could they be with respect to #2 above?

Imagine that the Twins don't trade any of their top starters, sending Duensing back to the bullpen to start the year. If somebody in the rotation needs to go on the DL for any more than 2-3 starts, Duensing gets stretched out and takes the vacated spot, and needs to be replaced by a reliever. If it's a case where the Twins only need a spot start or two, they could certainly go to Manship, who filled that role ably once or twice last season. Hacker could do the job, too, if they prefer. One of those guys might be needed, but probably not both. And that's only true of the first 2-3 months of the season. After that, Gibson and Bromberg will each have made 15+ career starts at Rochester and, as more talented, higher-upside players, would presumably give the Twins more value in a spot start or two than replacement level filler like the other guys.

I can envision no scenario in which Swarzak contributes in 2011. He made no appearances with the Twins in 2010, mainly because he was routinely getting spanked at AAA. He carried that poor performance into Venezuela this winter. Even if the entire rotation fell apart, I bet the Twins would rush the rookies into service before they used Swarzak. He's just taking up space right now. So why wasn't he the one dropped to make room for Hughes? I doubt anyone would have claimed him. And if someone had, well, shrug.

It will be interesting to see how much the 40-man roster changes by the end of spring training. I wouldn't be surprised to see more than 3 of the NRIs find themselves in the fold, with surplus deadweight like Swarzak and Perkins dismissed to clear room. That day can't come soon enough for me.

Contract Week

2011-01-21T05:18:00.000-08:00

A quiet offseason has suddenly become busy with Twins news. Part of that was prompted by Tuesday's arbitration deadline, without which they might well have continued to progress through the winter at their own leisurely pace. Finally spurred into action, they handed out a flurry of contracts. I was struck by the disparity in efficiency between some of those recent transactions. Here's what I mean:

Arbitration

Twins reached 1-year agreements with Alexi Casilla ($865K), Glen Perkins ($700K) and Matt Capps ($7.15M), avoiding arbitration. Jason Repko ($600K) and Pat Neshek ($625K) agreed to 1-year deals in December.

Casilla will presumably be the everyday SS and #9 hitter. I'll go into it more in a later post, but I think it's reasonable to expect him to provide league average production at that position. That's pretty good return for a salary that's only about double the minimum wage. Repko is useful only as a late-inning sub for someone who's already gotten on base; his salary is appropriate for his limited skills. Neshek was one of the top setup men in baseball before his injury. If he can regain his command and a little velocity, as Francisco Liriano was able to do, he could be a huge asset for the bullpen. If he can't, the Twins haven't wagered too much.

Those three guys aren't sure things to be productive, but Repko serves an important function on the bench, and the other two have pretty decent upside potential. For just over $2M, the Twins could get some nice value out of that trio.

But just about every year, they offer arbitration to someone I would have non-tendered. This year, it's Perkins. There is nothing I've seen in his last two seasons to suggest that he has any chance of contributing to this year's team. He's more hittable than Nick Blackburn, and doesn't even pitch as deeply into games as Kevin Slowey, so he's not going to beat anybody out for a rotation spot. He doesn't miss bats, he doesn't get ground balls, and he's no good at getting lefties out, so what good could he do in the bullpen? On top of that, he's injury-prone, there are questions about his make-up, and Gardy doesn't seem to like him very much. So why even offer him a contract? $700K isn't a ton of money to spend on a player, but it's a lot to spend on toilet paper.

As for Capps, I accepted a long time ago that he was going to get a contract and make about $7M through arbitration. Those facts have been incorporated into my expectations of the Twins' offseason all along. But after seeing reliever after reliever agree to 2 and 3-year deals with average annual values of $3.5-$5.5M, it was still a bit of a shock to look at the actual number today. My first thought was, "Wow, that's really steep." Then I went back to the projected payroll spreadsheet and reminded myself that it wasn't shocking - it's what everyone assumed would happen all along.

Most relievers have been overpriced this winter, especially when you factor in the additional years. Capps will cost the Twins less in guaranteed money than every departed member of their bullpen, with the exception of Jon Rauch, who had to settle for a 1-year deal. In that respect, the Twins came out ahead. And they have their 2nd closer, a guy who can step in if Joe Nathan struggles in his comeback from TJS.

But it's disheartening to see that, for about the same amount of money they're paying Capps and Perkins, they could have brought back Brian Fuentes - who also would have served as Nathan insurance - plus somebody else who has a better shot of producing than Perkins. Like Takashi Saito, or maybe Chad Qualls. It seems like a waste to see only one spot in an uncertain bullpen filled with the money that might have covered two.

Exchanged figures (Team/Player) with Kevin Slowey ($2.3M/$3.1M), Francisco Liriano ($3.6M/$5M) and Delmon Young ($4.65/$6.25).

With Slowey, the Twins should just go ahead and split the difference at $2.7M. After a couple of shaky seasons in a row, including a very frustrating 2010, I don't know why Slowey wouldn't accept that.

Liriano and Young should get multi-year deals with the Twins' submitted numbers as the 2011 salaries. For Liriano, Zach Greinke and Josh Johnson are the appropriate comps, each of whom signed 4-year deals following the first good season they produced after their respective troubles. Liriano's crappy luck last year is good luck for the Twins, since his 2010 doesn't look quite as nice statistically as Johnson's 2009 or Greinke's 2008. They might be able to get him for a little less than the $38-$39M those guys got, maybe more like $36-$37M. They each made $3.75M in the first year. Maybe Liriano's contract goes:

2011: $3.6M

2012: $7.4M

2013: $13M

2014: $13M

That would be the $37M version.

As for Young, I think Michael Cuddyer is a good comp. In the winter of 2008, Cuddyer filed at $6.2M and the Twins at $4.7M - just about exactly the split between Young and the Twins now. Cuddy wound up with a 3-year, $24M contract with an option for 2011. I don't know if I'd mess with the $2.75M signing bonus in Young's case, instead dividing it over the later years of the deal:

2011: $4.75M

2012: $7.75M

2013: $10.5M

2014: $12.5M or $1M buyout

Just make sure that, in Young's case, they don't have to exercise the option a year early.

Of course, the Twins could just wait and see whether Lirano's and Young's breakout 2010s were just flukes. But my guess is that the next few years with them won't come at as low a price in the future. I'll bet at least one of them has a new contract announced before Twinsfest.

Free Agents

Twins agreed to terms with Jim Thome on a 1-year, $3M contract and Carl Pavano on a 2-year, $16.5M contract.

While I have my reservations about bringing Jim Thome back, I have to give the Twins credit for getting him for so little guaranteed money, especially after the monster season he just had. If he totally flames out this year, the Twins won't have lost much.

The Pavano contract is amazing. As soon as Ted Lilly re-upped with the Dodgers for 3-years, $33M, I thought Pavano was gone for sure. Why shouldn't he get the same deal? Well, it was probably partly the recent, notorious injury history. That, coupled with Type A status that would have cost the signing team a draft pick, seems to have deflated Pavano's market. So the Twins were not only able to bring him back, but at a price tag just a little bit over what they paid him last season. That's the same thing Jake Westbrook is getting paid. What a bargain!

This move might free up one of the other starters for a possible trade. Other than Duensing, though, I feel like their stock is pretty low right now. It would be best to wait until at least the end of spring training, when Slowey and Blackburn can establish that they're healthy and able to get people out.

Or if they hold onto everybody, signing Pavano likely means that Duensing would get kicked back to the bullpen, where he's been very effective over the last two seasons. That would reduce the number of question marks in the 'pen by one. There are probably enough guys coming to spring training to adequately fill the remaining relief spots internally.

With Pavano coming back to the Twins, they lost their opportunity to get some draft pick compensation for him. (It's a stipulation of his new contract that the Twins won't offer him arbitration after 2012.) They'll end up with something like 3 of the top 50-60 picks this June. Which is nice, but it could have been so much more.

The Rays were in basically the same boat as the Twins, with the bulk of their bullpen heading into free agency. But they boldly offered arbitration to everybody, even though having several of those players accept it would have been much more difficult for them to absorb financially. All of their FAs turned it down, and the Rays have been rewarded with 11 picks out of the first 80 or so. If the Twins had done the same, they might have picked up 4 extra picks for losing Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes. I'm not sure Guerrier, as a Type A, would have turned down arbitration. But then again, Type A Grant Balfour did, and he landed on his feet. Rauch and Fuentes almost certainly would have tested the market. The Twins didn't really lose anything by being cautious, but they might have gained something had they had the same resolution the Rays did.

A few bargains, a few missed opportunities, and a few head-scratchers. It doesn't seem like many avid fans are too excited with the offseason so far. But I have no doubt that the Twins are following the plan they set for themselves at their organizational meetings. We may not be completely satisfied with the deals they've made, but I have a feeling they are.

An Unbalanced Bench

2011-01-14T18:26:00.000-08:00

Jim Thome will return to the Twins in 2011 on a 1-year, $3M (+ incentives) deal. He was a godsend for the Twins last season, hitting .283/.412/.627 with 25 HR, most coming after Justin Morneau was forced out of the lineup. His $1.5M base salary made Thome the free agent steal of 2010. Though he doesn't come quite so cheaply in 2011, this contract is still a bargain, especially if he can produce anything close to what he did last year.

Still, I'm lukewarm about this signing, for the following reasons:

Reason #1: Brett Favre

A sure-fire Hall of Famer, his numbers steadily declining over his late-30's, signs a 1-year deal with his former rivals and rattles off one of the most impressive statistical seasons of his career, helping his new team to an easy division title. Bring him back for one more year! Oops. The old man battled injuries all season, and when he made it onto the field, the results were usually pretty dreadful. The Vikes would have been better off with just about anybody else behind center.

But football is very different than baseball, and QB is a much more important position than part-time DH/bench bat. For a baseball comparison, look at Frank Thomas. He was limping through his late 30's, so the White Sox dropped him after 2005 (replacing him with Thome). Thomas signed a 1-year deal with Oakland and unleashed one last great season at age 38, hitting .270/.381/.545 with 39 bombs for the last A's team to make the playoffs. Toronto signed him up for 2 years that offseason. He wasn't nearly as potent in 2007 (.277/.377/.480 with 26 HR in 25 more PA), then was released halfway through the 2008 season after he could muster only a .723 OPS through 71 games.

Very few professional athletes can compete at a high level into their late thirties, let alone their forties. Even the very greatest are humbled by the relentless effects of aging. They may have one more great year in them as Favre, Thomas and Thome did. But they are almost never better at 40 than they were at 37-38. I doubt Thome will be any different. At age 37 his OPS was .865. At age 38 it was .847. The Twins would do well to expect his OPS to drop somewhere around .200 points from last season's lofty 1.039. If he's mostly able to avoid facing lefties, he might do a lot better than that, and I'd certainly take Thomas' 2007 line if Thome can match it. But I still wouldn't be shocked to see 2011 turn out to be Thome's least productive year since he was a rookie.

And don't forget, he doesn't play defense, he's much weaker against LHP, and he can't run. He's on the roster to hit against RHP, and that's it. 40-year old Jim Thome will be just as much of a luxury for the Twins as the 39-year old version. Which brings me to:

Reason #2: The Bench

Without Thome, the Twins still figured to have 4 left-handed batters in their everyday lineup: Denard Span, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Jason Kubel. Not surprisingly, the Tigers and White Sox are loading their bullpens with 2-3 LHP in order to match up with those hitters in the late innings. Here's how our guys have done against LHP over the last 3 seasons:

Span: .298/.380/.419 (+.060 OPS compared to RHP)

Mauer: .324/.388/.461 (-.116)

Morneau: .290/.343/.496 (-.119)

Kubel: .233/.312/.351 (-.218)

2010 AL vs. LHP: 256/.325/.393

Span would prefer to see a lefty on the mound. Southpaws reduce the M&M boys from godly to merely great. Still, all three are healthily above the league average against portsiders. No need to pinch-hit for any of them. But Kubel... ugh. LHPs transform him from a beast into a bee-yatch. It's crucial that the Twins have some way to protect Kubel from facing lefties, especially in late, game-changing situations. I would even say that it's the most important strategic position on their bench.

As of right now, it appears that the Twins' bench next season will consist of Thome, backup catcher Drew Butera, Jason Repko for the outfield, and Matt Tolbert as the utility infielder. As Christina Karl of Baseball Prospectus said (before Thome was signed), that group has the potential to be an "infamously bad" bench. They can all hit right-handed against LHP, but none of them do it well:

Repko: .211/.274/.281

Butera: .183/.203/.250

Tolbert: .271/.316/.393

The best the Twins can do for Kubel is to send up Tolbert, who is only slightly below league average and outslugs Kubel by a mere .042. It isn't really worth it to PH him and have Tolbert as the DH for the remainder of the game. If I were Gardy, I'd just take my chances with Kubel. Which plays right into Ozzie & Leyland's hands.

For his career, Thome has hit .238/.339/.424 vs. LHP. A fair amount better than average, better than Tolbert, way better than Kubel. But would Gardy pull Kubel back against a LHP and send Thome up instead? It looks to me like the Twins are still going to be vulnerable in that situation. Now, if the Twins want to protect themselves against late-inning lefties, it would require Gardy to do a couple of things for which there is no recent precedent under his tenure:

1. Make Cuddyer a Platoon Player

Consider Cuddyer's recent work vs. LHP in light of the list I gave above:

.288/.381/.521

That's a mile better than Kubel. Obviously, you want Cuddy out there against lefties with Kubel on the bench. Against righties, it should be nearly as clear. Between 1B, LF, RF and DH, the Twins have 5 players for 4 positions. Thanks to Delmon Young's emergence in 2010, I expect him to be in LF just about every day. That leaves Morneau, Thome, Kubel and Cuddyer to fit into the last 3 slots. Here are their 3-year splits vs. RHP:

Morneau: .306/.407/.551

Thome: .266/.396/.543

Kubel: .289/.354/.527

Cuddyer: .261/.319/.423

Now, which one of those guys should be riding the pine against righties? It's not even close. And, with Cuddyer on the bench, not only is the heart of the order a RHP killing machine, but Cuddy is available to PH late in the game to protect Kubel from facing a tough lefty.

The advantages of a Cuddyer/Kubel platoon are obvious, but I don't expect it will happen. Cuddyer has played at least 144 games in each of the last 5 seasons in which he didn't have broken bones. Also, a Cuddy/Kubel platoon would cost $15.75M, of which 2/3 would be paid to the guy getting 1/3 of the PA. Such a sunk cost shouldn't have any bearing on how the lineup is constructed, but that doesn't mean it won't. Cuddyer is going to get a lot of PAs against RHP, at the expense of a righty masher. Unless...

2. Make Cuddyer the Super-Utility Guy

Last year, Cuddyer made starts at RF, CF, 1B, 2B and 3B. He's a defensive liability at all of them. But even against RHP, he's a much better hitter than Tolbert or Repko. The Twins could plan on having Cuddyer start in RF against all left-handed starters (about 1/3 of the season), then spell all four IF and the other OF a couple of times a month. When Young sits, Kubel would probably start in LF. When Casilla gets a day off, Nishioka could play SS. When Span is out, Nishioka leads off. The thought of Cuddyer in CF is harrowing, but so is the thought of Repko hitting - he can come in as a defensive replacement late in the games.

That would give Cuddyer about 55 GS as a RF vs. LHP, a dozen each as a RF, CF, 1B and 3B and 2 dozen as a 2B vs. RHP. That adds up to 127 starts - nearly 4/5 games. That, plus frequent PH opportunities, would hopefully make him and Gardy feel like they were getting everything they could out of him. And it would mean that the Twins could do without Tolbert altogether, opening up the last bench spot for someone who can DH against lefties.

But it's hard enough to imagine Gardy making due without Nick Punto, let alone Tolbert. And I admit it would be useful to have a good IF glove available to sub for Cuddyer late in his starts at 2B and 3B. So, assuming Tolbert still makes the team, the only way I can see that the Twins can avoid the LOOGY trap with Kubel is...

3. Have a 5-Man Bench

That used to be a pretty ordinary thing. The Twins could still sign one of the remaining RH hit-only FA left on the market. Here are a few who could top the league average (and Tolbert), based on their work over the last 3 seasons:

Troy Glaus: .225/.352/.407

Manny Ramirez: .288/.396/.489

Vladimir Guerrero: .297/.351/.481

Marcus Thames: .265/.333/.500

Of those, I'm guessing Glaus and Thames would be the cheapest. My preference would be for Glaus, since he has a little more credibility as a corner IF than Cuddyer. He's broken down in the NL the last couple of seasons, but if he only took the field a couple of times a month, I bet he would hold up pretty well. His 3-year splits vs. LHP don't look so hot, but for his career they're much better (.273/.396/.542). Also, if the opponents counter with a RHP, Glaus is far from hopeless there, too (.248/.344/.471). But any of those guys would do the job of giving opposing managers something to think about when they try to match up with Kubel.

However, a 5-man bench means a 6-man bullpen, and that, for some reason, almost never happens anymore. It shouldn't be a hardship if the Twins can get more out of their rotation this season (which should be their objective in any event, given the uncertainty surrounding most of the projected members of the 'pen). The 2010 'pen threw 457 IP, 31.5% of the Twins' total. Split 6 ways, that comes out to a little over 76 IP per guy, which is a much higher workload than the typical reliever accumulates these days. 70 IP would be a bit more reasonable, though still a number that would stretch most of the Twins' bullpen arms to their limits:

Matt Capps has thrown over 54.1 IP just once in the last 3 seasons;
Jose Mijares' career high as a major leaguer is 61.2 IP;
Joe Nathan, as a Twin, has averaged right around 70 IP, but he's coming off TJS;
Pat Neshek reached 70 IP in 2007, but he's also trying to come back from TJS

It isn't clear that the Twins have 6 relievers who could handle 420 IP. And that amount would still leave 37 extra IP for the starters to pick up in 2011.

Could they handle that? Carl Pavano, should he return, shouldn't be expected to do any more than the 221 IP he gave the Twins last year. Francisco Liriano ought to be able to improve substantially on last season's 191.2 IP - a full 33 GS and better luck on balls in play should get him easily to 210 IP. If those two could pull that off, then the other 3 starters still have to average 200 IP. Nick Blackburn managed that between 2008-2009, but was so dreadful at times last year that his combined workload between the Twins and Rochester in 2010 was just 182.2 IP. Scott Baker has reached 200 IP just once in his career. Kevin Slowey and Brian Duensing have never done it.

Much as I'd like to see the starters pushed harder in 2011, I doubt that the Twins will feel they have the luxury of carrying only 6 relievers for any part of the season.

Thome is still a productive hitter, and a great guy, and his chase of the 600 HR plateau will undoubtedly be great for business this summer. But unless the Twins surprise me by enacting one of the scenarios I enumerated above, his signing means that they'll be susceptible to LHP late in games. And that could cost them more games against their AL Central rivals than whatever is left of Thome's bat can replace.

A True Ace

2010-12-31T16:57:00.000-08:00

Things I'm Not Worried About, Part 2

The Twins' early exit from the 2010 postseason prompted a lot of fans to jump to conclusions about the reasons they failed to advance (or even win a game). One idea I heard a lot was that the Twins can't compete in the playoffs because they don't have a True Ace, somebody who always shuts down the opposition whenever he gets the ball. (You know, like Cliff Lee was for the Rangers in the World Series. Wait... whoops!)

I have some questions about that supposition. First, is that really a bigger reason the Twins lost than the 8 R they scored in 3 games or the bullpen's inability to put up zeroes? A lot of pitchers will fail to win when the rest of their team performs like that. Second, and more importantly, do the Twins really lack a True Ace? What exactly constitutes a True Ace, anyway?

An Ace is basically a #1 starter, the guy who gets the ball on opening day. Each of the 30 teams has one of those. Of course, some of those guys would be #2 or #3 guys on bigger payroll teams (or #5 on the Phillies). So we're not looking for the best guy on each of the 30 teams, but rather one of the best 30 pitchers in all of baseball.

How do we determine who those guys are? WAR(P) for pitchers is determined in incompatibly different (and flawed) ways depending on which site you reference. Rather than have someone else try to formulate pitcher value for me, I'm more inclined to look for a convergence of desirable qualities: dependability, stuff, command. An ace takes pressure off his teammates by taking his turn every 5th day, pitching deep into the game, limiting baserunners, getting strikeouts and keeping the score close. So I want to find guys who made the top 30 in IP, WHIP, BB/9, K/9 and HR/9.

Cole Hamels came in 30th in IP with 208.2. The 30th best WHIP in the Majors last year was Ian Kennedy's 1.20. Rodrigo Lopez checked in at #30 in BB/9 with 2.52. 30 guys were able to rack up at least 7.68 K/9, ending with Tommy Hanson. And there were 29 guys ahead of Mark Buerhle's 0.73 HR/9.

Anybody who was on all 5 of those lists must be a True Ace, right? Right, but it's an incredibly short list:

Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright

Any criteria by which Roy Halladay doesn't emerge as a True Ace must be a little flawed. So I'll loosen things up just a bit. How about guys who pitched at least 200 IP, with at least 7.5 K/9, WHIPs under 1.25, BB/9 below 3.0 and HR/9 under 0.9? That got me 4 more names:

Halladay, Roy Oswalt (yikes, that's a good Phillies rotation!), Justin Verlander and Hanson.

Several other very worthy guys just missed in one of the categories: CC Sabathia and Zach Greinke came up a little short with 7.4x K/9, Tim Lincecum and Ubaldo Jiminez had a few too many walks, Dan Haren and Hamels (seriously, Philadelphia!) had HR/9 over 1.0, Josh Johnson and Mat Latos didn't have enough IP. It's still exclusive enough - I'm satisfied that anyone who can meet 4 of the 5 criteria is an Ace, and anybody who can hit all 5 is a True Ace.

The Twins didn't have anyone meet 4 out of 5. Carl Pavano wasn't close in K/9, and just missed with 0.98 HR/9. And Francisco Liriano didn't have enough IP (191.2) and came up just short with a 1.26 WHIP.

About that, though. I followed Liriano particularly closely this season. I made him a high pick for my fantasy team, and I made a bold assertion that he would pitch about as well as Jon Lester in 2010 (Lester hit 4/5 lists). My big takeaway from observing his 2010 is that he gave up an absolutely mind-blowing number of crappy hits. Bloopers just over the IF, slow choppers over the mound, swinging bunts, actual bunts. The number of rallies against him that actually came from a series of well-hit balls was pretty tiny.

His BABIP numbers bear that out. The average BABIP of all Major League pitchers in 2010 was .297. Liriano's was .335. That was 3rd worst in all of baseball among qualified starters. That's some exceptionally bad luck. In spite of that, Liriano still managed to finish 31st in MLB in OPS against, 37th in ERA and 43rd in WHIP. He was elite in a couple of important categories: 5th in K/9 with 9.44 and 4th in HR/9 with 0.42 (he was 1st until his final GS of the season). Do you put any stock in DIPS? (I don't think they give a complete picture, but they're certainly useful.) Liriano was 3rd in FIP (2.66), 2nd in xFIP (3.06) and 3rd in SIERA (3.02).

Substituting the league average BABIP into his numbers, it quickly becomes apparent how awesome Liriano was in 2010. He allowed 522 BIP (730 AB - 201 K - 9 HR + 2 SF). A .297 BA for those 522 AB results in 155 H. That's 20 fewer than he actually allowed. Add those together with his 9 HR and 58 BB and his WHIP drops to 1.16, comfortably within the top 30 in that category. But it's actually even better than that, because those 20 fewer hits would have been converted into at least 20 more outs. Assuming no DP, that adds 6.2 IP to bring his season total to 198.1 IP - just 5 outs short of 200. That larger denominator drops his WHIP to 1.12 - good for 12th in baseball.

If you assume that all 20 of those subtracted H were singles (hardly a fair assumption, but let's be conservative), his TB allowed would be reduced to 239. That makes his new SLG% against .327 - 9th overall. His OBP allowed would drop to .290 (14th). His new opponents' OPS would be .617 (9th).

Those adjustments show that Liriano, given ordinary luck, would have been easily one of the the top 30 pitchers in baseball last year, a legitimate Ace. As for his IP total, the only other category in which he comes up just short of True Ace criteria, that can be rather easily accounted for by his position as the Twins' #5 starter at the beginning of the season. There was enough doubt about his ability after 2009 that some were even calling for him to move the bullpen in spring training, particularly after the season-ending injury to Joe Nathan. Had Liriano been given the #1 or #2 spot in the rotation that we now clearly see that he deserved, he would have certainly made at least one more start in 2010, and passed the 200 IP threshold with only 1.2 IP in that 32nd GS.

It would be fair to question at this point whether Liriano really deserves a discount based on his poor BABIP. I'd be the first to admit that DIPS are missing something crucial about pitcher ability. For example, Johan Santana nearly always outperforms his FIP and xFIP (I think this is because he's exceptionally good at getting himself out of jams - as evidenced by his higher than average strand rates). And, for me, Nick Blackburn's summer troubles had less to do with some inevitable regression of BABIP than they did with him simply pitching like ass. Was something like that dogging Liriano last year? Did he deserve to give up all those hits?

Permit me to slice and dice his season. His first 5 GS were stupendous, particularly after the 5 BB grind in his 1st appearance in Chicago. He combined to go 4-0 with 36 IP, 26 H, 6 ER, 0 HR, 13 BB and 36 K while winning the AL Pitcher of the Month award for April despite pitching in just 4 games. His BABIP over that stretch was an only slightly better than league average .289.

From there to the All Star Break, he made 12 starts, totaling 71.1 IP, 81 H, 40 ER, 2 HR, 17 BB and 81 K. Even if you add in his 6 HBP, that's still fewer free passes per 9 IP than in the earlier stretch, and the K/9 is better. Both HR came in the same lousy start in Boston on May 20th. Despite improved peripherals, Liriano's ERA over these 12 GS was more than 3 times worse than his 1st 5 starts, thanks to an absurdly high .391 BABIP, and he went 2-7.

Even so, he delivered QS in 7 of the 12 games. Of the 5 he didn't, 2 (May 20th and July 9th) were bad days - even great pitchers will have a couple of games when they get lit up. The other 3 merit special attention:

First there was the May 8th game against Baltimore, in which Liriano gave up a season-high 10 H in 6 IP. All of the 5 ER he allowed came with 2 outs. Does he have trouble finishing off innings? Did he lose his focus? See for yourself. Flip through those O's highlights. You only get to see the RBI hits, but notice how their announcers keep saying things like, "Consistent with their other hits in the inning: a dying quail!" and, "...another hit that did not go out of the infield," and "This is a seeing-eye ball here!" Also notice who's playing SS for the Twins: Brendan Harris. This was the 3rd game after JJ Hardy's wrist injury put him on the shelf for several weeks.
Let's look at June 23rd in Milwaukee. Liriano lasted just 5 IP, but that was only because Gardy elected to lift him for a PH in the top of the 6th. Liriano was at just 77 pitches and surely would have come out for the 6th in an AL park. And, as for the 2 RBI hits he allowed, check them out. One is about a 4-hopper up the middle, and the other is a groundball double past Michael Cuddyer at 3rd, which was subsequently butchered in the LF corner by Delmon Young, allowing Rickie Weeks to score easily from 1B. Neither ball looked like it was particularly squared up by the hitter.
Liriano's next start was June 28th against the Tigers. The first 6 batters reached on about 15 pitches: a HBP and 5 straight hits (the first of which was a bunt single) led to 4 quick ER. He gave up 2 more hits in the 2nd, including a slow roller to SS that moved the lead runner to 3rd where he could score on the ensuing groundout. A lousy start, yet Liriano lasted into the 7th inning, where he was chased by 2 straight 1st-pitch bunts - one a single, the 2nd a Sac that didn't result in an out when Orlando Hudson dropped Justin Morneau's throw (there's at least one of the 5 outs Liriano needed to get to 200 IP). At the end of the day, Liriano had given up 6 ER on 9 H and 2 BB with 6 K in 6 IP. He wasn't sharp at the beginning of the game, he had a little bad luck, the Tigers were hot. But he still hung around, kept the team in the game (it was 5-4 Tigers when he was pulled) and saved the bullpen until the 7th.

From the 1st series after the All-Star Break to the 3-game sweep in Chicago that effectively sealed the division title for the Twins, Liriano went 8-0 in 11 GS. His combined line was 71 IP, 60 H, 19 ER, 2 HR, 25 BB, 72 K. His BABIP over that stretch was .304, again reasonably close to the league average. He failed to deliver a QS in just 3 of those 11 GS:

August 6th in Cleveland. I had a nice rant about this one at the time. Superficially resembled the Tigers game I just described in that he allowed 7 of the first 11 batters to reach, resulting in 4 ER. But it was really more like the Orioles game, because just about all the hits he gave up were on seeing-eye grounders.
His next start in Chicago featured another 1st inning jam. 4 straight Sox reached after 2 were out, culminating in this impressive RBI single from AJ Pierzynski. He had to battle in the 5th and 6th, and was pulled 1 out shy of a QS. 7 H, 2 BB, 2 HBP, but only 1 run allowed.
The next was also against Chicago on August 18th. Liriano wasn't very good in this one, allowing 5 ER on 6 H (including the first HR he'd allowed in 3 months, a 3-run jack on the heels of 2 BB) and 4 BB in just 5 IP. The only thing I could say in his defense is that the 5th run came home as a result of consecutive missed GIDP opportunities.

His final 3 GS make their own little section. He lasted just 13.1 IP combined over those 3 games, though the shortest of those was the result of an illness that came on after 3 IP. But what really makes these games stand out is the fact the Liriano allowed 5 HR in them, one more than he'd given up in his previous 28 GS, a span of 178.1 IP. The whole team lost focus after they vanquished the White Sox, and I think he was guilty of that, too. He also was probably worn out after a full season workload that exceeded anything he'd achieved previously, especially if you consider the 48.2 IP he added in winter ball in December and January. Whatever the reason, those last 3 games are so far out of character with the rest of his 2010, I don't think they're terribly indicative of what we can expect from him going forward.

If we add the two stretches in which Liriano was himself and enjoying basically league average BABIP, he went 12-0 over 16 GS (the Twins won 15 of those games). He amassed 107 IP (6.2 IP/GS) with a 2.10 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 0.2 HR/9, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9. Definitely an Ace, and only 3 BB from being a True Ace.

If he can more or less repeat his 2010 peripherals next year, I expect Liriano to deliver those kinds of numbers over 33-34 GS. (That's especially since he won't have any winter ball to extend his workload this time around.) 200+ IP of awesome stuff and command, plus merely ordinary luck on balls in play, should easily land him in the discussion of who's the best pitcher in baseball. And if he should enjoy better than average luck, we could be in store for something very special.

Either way, I'd confidently hand him the ball on opening day, and for the 1st game of the postseason if the Twins should make it there again. Liriano pitched well enough last season to belong among the best in the game. Going into his age 27 season in 2011, what should be his prime, I don't see any reason to expect less from him.

Arizona Prospects

2010-12-15T14:24:00.000-08:00

Two items of note from just before Thanksgiving: The Arizona Fall League concluded its schedule, and Baseball America posted its annual ranking of the Twins' top 10 prospects. There's plenty of overlap between the two, as 3 of the farmhands on the BA list played in the AFL.

The Twins have tended to send less advanced prospects to the AFL than some other teams, and that was the case again this year. Of the 7 players the organization sent to the Peoria Saguaros, only Kyle Waldrop has played more than half a season above AA. This group was mostly comprised of guys who spent the majority of the year in New Britain, where they accumulated a shockingly bad 44-98 record (.310 winning percentage). It was more of the same for them this fall, as the Saguaros finished 9-22 for an even more dreadful .290 W%.

Individually, they were a mixed bag. Bear in mind that the average AFL batter hit .283/.356/.431, while the average pitcher had a 5.10 ERA and 1.57 WHIP.

Joe Benson, OF (#4)

Named the Twins' 2010 Minor League Player of the Year after hitting .259/.343/.538 between Fort Myers and New Britain with an organization-leading 27 HR in 123 games. BA rated him as the organization's best athlete. In addition to his power, he has good OF range and speed, especially for a corner guy, and he has a very strong arm. The knock on him right now is his high strikeout rate - he fanned in 30.7% of his AB during the regular season.

The Saguaros didn't give him much of a chance to show off his tools. He appeared in just 17 of the team's 31 games and barely made it to 60 PA. At first glance, his .236/.300/.400 line looks like a huge disappointment. It included just 1 HR, his K-rate remained high at 29%, and he drew only 3 BB. However, there is at least a suggestion that he made an adjustment over the course of the season:

First 9 games: 26 PA, .160/.192/.280, 3 2B, 0 HR, 0 BB, 8 K

Last 8 games: 34 PA, .300/.382/.500, 3 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 8 K

Small sample sizes both, but I'll keep my hopes up based on his eventual production. The Twins need Benson to have a good year at Rochester in 2011. Even if his K-rate holds at around 30%, if he can put up another OPS > .850 he'll be someone the they can count on in 2012. He's been added to the 40-man roster, and will be a call-up option should one of the corner guys get hurt. And he's the guy I'm hoping will be ready to take over for Michael Cuddyer after his contract expires next year. Benson has the ability to make us forget about Cuddy pretty quickly.

Ben Revere, OF (#5)

The Twins' Minor League Player of the Year from 2008 & 2009, Revere was added to the 40-man roster in September and got a cup of coffee with the Twins down the stretch. He has hit .300 or better at every level so far, though this year's .305 was a career low, as was his .371 OBP and .363 SLG%. Those numbers were only incrementally lower than his 2009 numbers from Fort Myers, but they seem to suggest that he's reaching his ceiling as a Juan Pierre-style slapper. His 50-SB speed and weak arm also bring Pierre to mind.

Unlike Benson, Revere got off to a fast start in the AFL. He was hitting .370 with 2 doubles and a triple through his first 18 games. But over his last 10 he went just 6 for 39 without an XBH, dropping his final line to a much less impressive .295/.358/.330. He stole 13 bases without being caught.

Revere strikes me as a poor man's Denard Span. The extra value he gives you in speed and batting average is negated by his lower IsoP and even weaker throwing arm. Add the fact that they're both left-handed, and I just can't see them in the OF together at the same time. Revere should remain at AAA for most of the season in case Span gets injured. Maybe he'll have some utility on the postseason roster as a PR should the Twins get that far again. But they should be looking to move him by this time next year. Somebody needs Revere to be their everyday leadoff man - just not the Twins.

Carlos Gutierrez, RHP (#10)

Since making his full-season debut in 2009, Gutierrez has split time as a starter and a reliever. The Twins seem to have plenty of capable young starters and a lot of questions in the bullpen right now, so the bullpen is likely where he'll end up. He's got a tremendous sinker and a more or less average strikeout rate. At the moment, control is his biggest problem, as he's walked over 3.7 batters per 9 innings in each of the last 2 seasons. That all adds up to some rather unimpressive WHIPs and ERAs at the upper levels.

He made 12 appearances in the AFL, all out of the 'pen. The good news: in 11 IP, he struck out 10, and induced 21 groundouts and only 1 fly out. The bad news: he walked 9, leading to an unseemly 2.00 WHIP and 6.55 ERA. He'll have to throw more strikes before the Twins can count on him.

David Bromberg, RHP

He didn't make BA's list, but Bromberg is in the bottom half of some other top 10 prospects lists. From 2007-2009 he was his league's strikeout leader. That string was broken this year, as he didn't quite make it to 6 K/9 at AA, but he rebounded well with 8.1 K/9 in 9 GS for the Red Wings. As he's moved up the organizational ladder, he's increasingly become a flyball pitcher, but that doesn't seem to be of any concern. He's kept his HR/9 down and would play half his schedule with the Twins at Target Field.

In the AFL, he made 6 starts, maxing out at 4.2 IP. He bookended his season with 2 excellent efforts (combined 8 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 11 K). Sandwiched in between them were 4 rough ones (combined 14.2 IP, 25 H, 15 ER, HR, 6 BB, 14 K). In Bromberg's defense, the H/9 numbers were so lousy for the entire Saguaros staff that one has to conclude that the regular defense was terrible. Overall, his peripherals were quite promising: 0.4 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 9.9 K/9. He'll begin next season back at Rochester, and will make a much more intriguing spot start option than Jeff Manship now that he's on the 40-man roster.

Chris Parmelee, OF/1B

The Twins' 1st-round pick from 2006 has been making a slow climb through the system. He repeated A- in 2008 and was briefly demoted to A+ in the middle of 2010. His game has been improving in some facets, however, as he's raised his BA and lowered his K rate over the last few seasons. What may be of some concern is the sudden drop in power - Parmelee hit half as many HR last season as we would have expected from his career averages.

He was repeating the AFL this year, too. He hit .339/.405/.477 with a 17/12 K/BB ratio, but with no HR, continuing the trends from the regular season. Those numbers are solidly above average for the league, though, so the Twins have to be pleased. Between Fort Myers, New Britain and Peoria, he combined to hit .295/.365/.415 with 38 2B, 5 3B, and 8 HR.

The Saguaros used him at first base, but he's logged a lot of time in the OF corners for the Twins' affiliates. His defense has improved, but it doesn't look as though he's going to be an asset in the field. My guess is that the Twins will start him in Rochester next spring and hope that he'll be able to maintain the high average and OBP while seeing just a few more balls fly over the fence. If Parmelee can pull that off, he'll make a nice minimum-wage replacement for Jason Kubel in 2012.

Tyler Robertson, LHP

Everyone was understandably excited about Robertson after 2007. At the age of 19, he picked apart the Midwest League, with a 2.29 ERA, .226 opponents' BA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, 10.8 K/9 and only 3 HR allowed in 102.1 IP. As a 6'5" lefty, there was a lot to dream on. But his velocity hasn't improved as he's filled out, and his numbers in all of the categories I listed above have been steadily eroding, even while he repeated A+ in 2009. I wasn't surprised to see him fall apart in the Eastern League, with a 5.41 ERA, .307 opponents' BA, 1.64 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9 and 17 HR allowed in 149.2 IP. Of the 4 pitchers the Twins' sent to the AFL, I expected the least from Robertson.

At first glance, his 4.50 ERA gives the impression that he was effective. But he allowed 14 R in his 14 IP, it's just that half of them were unearned. He still had a .327 opponents' BA, 1.71 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9, 5.8 K/9 and 2 HR allowed. Certainly no better than he faired over the summer. If there's anything positive to find in this performance, it's that, used entirely in relief by the Saguaros, Robertson faced a disproportionate number of lefties, and handled them to the tune of a .217 BAA, 1.05 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. So he may have a future as a LOOGY. If he can't figure out a way to contain right-handed hitters, that's the only MLB job he can hope for.

Kyle Waldrop, RHP

The Twins' 3rd 1st-round selection from 2004 (after Trevor Plouffe and Glen Perkins), Waldrop had his progression delayed by a 2008 shoulder surgery. Since his return, he's been used exclusively in the bullpen, and to good effect. In 178.1 IP as a reliever across 3 levels, he's got a 2.32 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and just 7 HR allowed thanks to a G/F rate over 2.3. His 2nd half at Rochester wasn't as impressive as his spring, but a lot of us were expecting him to have a crack at the Matt Guerrier role in 2011.

His AFL experience was a total disaster. His groundball rate remained excellent, so again, I have to cast some aspersions on what must have been a dreadful Saguaros IF. But still, he allowed 24 H in 12.1 IP, including 4 HR, and he walked 6 while striking out just 5. That resulted in a (gulp!) 16.05 ERA. Was he tired after throwing nearly 90 innings out of the 'pen during the regular season? Let's say he was tired. Anyway, his performance was so uninspiring that the Twins chose not to add him to the 40-man roster and nobody selected him in the Rule 5 draft. So he'll come to spring training with as much chance to earn a back-end bullpen spot as several other folks.

Also of Note:

It was at about this time last year that Francisco Liriano's Dominican Winter League numbers first caught my attention. This year's version (in a more subdued way) might be Deolis Guerra. Supposedly one of the premium pieces of the Johan Santana trade after posting a 2.53 ERA in 19 FSL starts in 2007, Guerra has been a mess since joining the Twins' organization. He's been very hittable, with spotty command, and was torched for 19 HR in 127.1 IP in 2010.

However, in his first 7 appearances in the Venezuelan Winter League, he's allowed just 11 ER on 31 H and only 1 HR in 29.2 IP with a stellar 25/3 K/BB ratio. That's a 3.34 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 0.9 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9. All of those are a huge step up from what he was able to do over the last year and a half at the upper levels, against what I would guess is fairly similar competition. It also comes with a vastly improved GB rate of 2.16/FB.

Guerra is still only 21 - almost 6 months younger than 2010 1st round pick Alex Wimmers - and he's already logged 165 IP at AA and 25 at AAA. I'll keep an eye on him. If he's able to maintain those numbers throughout the VWL, he'll come to spring training with a chance to make Rochester's rotation and reassert his relevance on the prospect lists.

If

2010-12-10T09:33:00.000-08:00

Twins send SS JJ Hardy, IF Brendan Harris and $0.5M to Orioles for RHPs James Hoey and Brett Jacobsen

So much for holding their cards.

I was prepared to have Alexi Casilla get his shot at 2B as a savings over what re-signing Orlando Hudson might have cost. Winning the negotiating rights for Tsuyoshi Nishioka briefly gave the Twins the depth to make Casilla the backup MI, while relegating Matt Tolbert to the edges of the 25-man roster (where he probably belongs). But it didn't likely save any money over Hudson. Then all this talk of pushing to re-sign Carl Pavano. Was the payroll going to get a lot bigger than we expected? Perhaps, but there are clearly limits.

Everyone talks about Hardy as someone who's going to make over $6M this year. It didn't have to be that way - I think the Twins could have used Jhonny Peralta's deal with Detroit as a fair comparison and signed Hardy for a 2-year deal at a nominal raise over last season's $5.1M. A player signed for 2 seasons is worth more in a trade than an impending free agent. There was value there, but I think at that moment the Twins were still on the fence about whether to even tender him a contract. And once Juan Uribe got a 3-year, $21M deal from the Dodgers, all hope of signing Hardy for under $6M went out the window.

It's obvious that Gardy was adamant that the Twins and Hardy part company. There's been a lot of talk since the start of the offseason about improving the team by getting faster up the middle. They stole by far the fewest bases in 2010 of any year since Gardy took over. And they probably looked at the way Texas ran all over the Yankees (and perhaps remembered how the Rays ran all over them) and felt like that was their best chance of slaying that particular dragon. And, with Victor Martinez returning to the division and AJ Pierzynski re-upping for 2 more years in Chicago, it's not a bad idea to have a few more base stealers in the lineup.

Hardy wasn't going to do that - he's successfully stolen just 3 bases in the last 3 years. But he's a rock-solid defender at SS, and even surpassed the league average for the position offensively despite another relatively disappointing year at the plate. Target Field wasn't kind to him, though (.252/.313/.340), and there's no reason to think it would get any easier for him in the future. He also had a negative platoon split (.210/.291/.324 vs. LHP) for the 2nd straight year. He didn't hit that great at home, and he doesn't make the lineup tougher on lefties. I can see the Twins feeling ambivalent about his offensive upside. There were probably some personality things there, too, like there were with Kyle Lohse or Matt Garza. If Gardy doesn't want a guy around, the front office usually finds a way to move him along.

Realizing that he would have some trade value, the Twins did tender Hardy a contract. Their biggest need would be low-cost bullpen help. They may have found a 2011 piece in Hoey, who had plus-plus strikeout numbers last year, but walked waaaaaay too many hitters. He had pretty good control before his 2008 shoulder surgery, though. If Rick Anderson can get him headed back in that direction, the Twins might have a minimum-wage replacement for Jesse Crain. If.

I would have preferred to see the Twins land somebody who was more of a sure thing for next season, even if it meant getting only one guy back instead of two. I bet that if they'd held onto Hardy for awhile, even as late as spring training, they would have found a taker desperate enough to upgrade their IF that they'd have given the Twins a better return. But I think Bill Smith looks at it like they just picked up a couple of hard-throwing relievers for nothing, since Hardy might just as easily have been cut loose. Add in the fact that they were able to rid themselves of Harris, and I can't feel too bad about it. I wouldn't have done it, but it's not a disaster.

That's especially true if Nishioka's spectacular 2010 season represents the breakout of a young player, finally healthy, entering his prime. And if the skills that are sufficient to steal bases and win batting titles and gold gloves in Japan translate to the Majors. If.

As for Casilla, a lot of people have been tossing around his career numbers and poor defense at 2B as an indication of what kind of talent he has (i.e. not much). He was dreadful in 2007 and 2009, but one of those years was his first taste of the big leagues as a 22-year-old. I'll give him a mulligan on 2007. Over the last 3 seasons he's at .256/.316/.344 in 863 PA, with 29 doubles, 7 triples, 8 homers and 24/27 stolen bases. The slash line isn't too far from the average bottom of the order hitter, and the SB numbers are great. In 2008 and 2010, his numbers were pretty comparable to Hardy's last year. As for defense at SS, he hasn't played enough innings there to give a good picture by the defensive metrics, but so far they rate as right around average. By swapping Casilla for Hardy, the Twins probably stand to lose some defensively, gain a lot of speed, and match what they were getting offensively. If Casilla can deliver another season like '08 and '10. If.

I guess that's my biggest problem with these maneuvers. The Twins have a huge pile of question marks heading into 2011, and some of them won't work out. With Hardy in the fold, the Twins had 3 potential starters for 2 positions, giving them a fallback if one of them gets hurt or doesn't work out. Now, the fallback is Tolbert, or perhaps Trevor Plouffe. That doesn't mean that they're doomed next year, or that the team is necessarily weaker than it was. It just means that Smith is more of a gambling man than I thought. He's betting the farm on Casilla and Nishioka. He'd better be right.

Tender Moment

2010-12-03T13:04:00.000-08:00

With the arbitration and contract tender deadlines behind us and the winter meetings just ahead, let's check in on the Twins' offseason so far...

Options

The Twins exercised their $5.25M option on Jason Kubel, but declined Nick Punto's $5M option with a $0.5M buyout.

Kubel is a good value for that price, especially if he is deployed in such a way that he avoids playing the field and facing LHP. The injury to Justin Morneau made that difficult to accommodate, which may help to account for Kubel's disappointing 2nd half numbers. But even with a down year in 2010, over the last 3 years his .881 OPS vs. RHP is impressive - about 90% of what Adam Dunn has, er, done. And the White Sox will be paying him $14M.

As for Punto, he didn't stack up well next to the other internal options last year:

Punto: 288 PA, .238/.313/.302

Casilla: 170 PA, .276/.331/.395

Tolbert: 100 PA, .230/.293/.379

No sense paying Nick 8-10 times more money to do worse than Casilla and Tolbert. Add in the fact that he's 4 years older than Tolbert and 6 years older than Casilla, and it's a pretty easy decision to let him walk.

Arbitration

The Twins offered arbitration to Type A free agent Carl Pavano, but not to Matt Guerrier. They offered arbitration to Type B free agents Orlando Hudson and Jesse Crain, but not to Brian Fuentes or Jon Rauch. Pavano, Hudson and Crain all declined.

I was hoping the Twins would be bold with the relievers, particularly after Joaquin Benoit signed early with Detroit for 3 years, $16.5M. Certainly Crain feels he's in that league, but why wouldn't Fuentes, too? Arbitration might get him a bigger 2011 salary, but not as much guaranteed money as the 2-3 year deal he and Rauch are surely looking for.

In any event, the front office played it safe, and will likely net 4 extra top 50 picks, which is plenty. I guess.

Bidding

The Twins won the rights to negotiate with Japanese Pacific League batting champ Tsuyoshi Nishioka with a $5.3M bid.

I've got to hand it to Bill Smith for this. That's thinking about 10,000 miles outside the box on how to replace Orlando Hudson. Nishioka is a switch-hitting MI, with terrific contact skills and a pretty decent OBP. He also likes to steal bases and plays gold-glove caliber defense up the middle - for the JPL, at least. He's the ideal fit for the #2 spot in the order. And he's only 26, so his best years may be just ahead. Just have to sign him now...

Contracts

The Twins offered 2011 contracts to all unsigned, team controlled players on the 40-man roster.

There were only a couple of question marks here. There was a lot of speculation that JJ Hardy might be non-tendered, especially once the Nishioka news came out. But even if the Twins intend to use Casilla at SS in 2011, the dearth of viable MI free agents makes Hardy a valuable commodity. The Twins should be able to get something pretty nice back if they elect to trade him. But I count myself among those who still hope that they'll hold onto him for awhile. At least until Nishioka signs on the dotted line, and hopefully into spring training. Casilla's doing OK in Winter Ball, but I'm not sold yet...

I would have probably cut Glen Perkins loose at this point. But I don't suppose there's a huge downside in giving him one more chance to show that he can be worth something. There are lots of holes in the bullpen, but I suspect he'll find his way onto the waiver wire at some point next year.

Pretty quiet so far, which is fine with me. However, there are some indications that everyone may have underestimated how much the Twins have to spend this season. If that's the case, we might be in for a few (hopefully welcome) surprises this offseason.

Denard Span

2010-11-16T08:18:00.000-08:00

Things I'm Not Worried About Part 1

Over the course of what I hope will be a rather uneventful offseason, I want to try to dispel some of the hysteria around the way the Twins finished the 2010 season. At the start of their final road trip, the Twins were 92-60, tied for the best record in the Majors. Even their lackluster finish couldn't prevent them from claiming the 4th-best record over the full season. A very good team, with very good players. I'm going to argue that several of those players are even better than the average fan seems to realize. Leading off: Denard Span.

I've been a Span booster ever since I first saw him play in the spring of 2008. Nothing about his game was flashy, but he showed solid fundamentals and an approach at the plate that was appropriate for his skill set. But his performance the previous two seasons was underwhelming, as he hit .285/.340/.349 and .267/.323/.355 with a high K rate at the upper levels. So he was sent back to AAA at the start of the season in favor of the much less polished Carlos Gomez. Span blew up to .340/.434/.481 in 40 games with the Red Wings, and eventually took over the Twins' leadoff spot by hitting .294/.387/.432 for the remainder of 2008 and .311/.392/.415 in 2009. Finally having reached his potential, the Twins rewarded him with a 5-year, $16.5M contract.

Then, in 2010, he hit just .264/.331/.348, essentially the same as his 2006-2007 performance in the minors. We've been had! 2008 & 2009 were a fluke - the real Denard Span is the same nobody we saw in the minors all those years!

The hell he is.

Though the slash numbers line up pretty well with his minor league track record, a deeper look shows that Span's offensive game was much closer to what it was in 2009 than 2007. In his younger days he had a poor understanding of the strike zone, with K/BB ratios of about 2/1. Last year, it was about 5/4, essentially the same as his excellent 2009. His distribution of liners, flies and grounders was only slightly different from last year. He hit a few more grounders, but for a guy with his wheels, that's not a bad thing. He cut his rate of IF flies - essentially automatic outs - and reduced his strikeout rate for the 3rd straight season. Those components combine to suggest that he should have been on his way to even better numbers in 2010.

So why didn't it happen? Check out the play made by Toronto SS Alex Gonzalez at the end ofthis highlight package from May 17th. This AB is a pretty good encapsulation of Span's season. He took the 1st pitch for a strike. He fouled off the second. Down 0-2, he made contact with a pitcher's pitch dipping down out of the strike zone. Span was exceptionally good at making contact this year - 11 out of every 12 swings got at least a piece of the ball. In this case, he put the ball in play - with the lowest BB and K rates of his MLB career, he put more balls in play than ever before (in fact, he was 5th in all of MLB in total balls in play). This one resulted in an out, thanks to a highlight-reel catch. At the time, I had this to say about it:

Lately it seems like something like that happens to Span at least once a series. When are those going to start falling in?

Answer: never.

Look at the liner that ended Span's dreadful 2 for 30 west coast trip from the 1st week of June (about 2:00 into the game summary). How about this play by Gabe Kapler from July 3rd?Span hit a ball on August 3rd that was ruled a FC because it forced Jose Morales at 2nd even though it hit the turf in RF. Span's 0 for 4 on August 24th included a lineout to the pitcher and a sliding catch of another liner to CF.

Those are just the ones I mentioned specifically in the blog. My impression from observing the Twins this year was that Span's season was a litany of bad luck at the dish. And the numbers bear that out. Here are the components of his BA (ground balls, fly balls, line drives and bunts) from each of his big league seasons and compared to the league as a whole (2008/2009/2010/2010 MLB totals):

GB: .257/.287/.223/.235

FB: .343/.257.205/.219

LD: .655/.763/.677/.724

BU: .300/.667/.214/.388

In 2008 he was really unlucky on liners but made up for it with good luck on flies. In 2009 he was lucky across the board. 2010 was just the opposite. The liners were unfortunate, but not the real problem. After all, everybody whacks a few bullets right at defenders over the course of the year. Had Span enjoyed league average luck on his line drives, it would have been worth just 5 more base hits. The regression to slightly below average on fly balls isn't a big deal either - he was due for that.

What really jumps out is the poor performance on grounders and bunts. Speedy guys like Span should always have a higher BA on grounders than the league as a whole. That's because the play that gets Jason Kubel by half a step is going to be too late to get Span. So to see a BA on grounders below the league average shows that not only did fewer than expected balls off Span's bat trickle into the OF, he beat out fewer IF hits than we would expect someone with his wheels would.

All those below average pieces led to a BABIP collapse in 2010. In his first 2 big league seasons, he hit .339 and .353 on balls in play - not outlandish for someone with his speed, but probably a little on the high side, especially in 2009. But even in his underwhelming minor league seasons, his BABIPs were .330 and .322. In 2010, his BABIP dropped to .294, by far a career low.

What would have happened if Span had enjoyed the BABIPs he'd put up in the minors? Let's split the difference between 2006 & 2007 and give him a .326 BABIP. He put 564 balls in play in 2010 (PA - K - BB - HBP - HR). A .326 BABIP would have given him 184 H, 18 more than he had. For the season, 22% of his H went for extra bases. That gives him 4 more XBH - let's call them 3 doubles and a triple. The higher BABIP then gives him 23 extra total bases for the season. Leaving his BB and HBP numbers the same, his line with his minor league luck would be:

.293/.357/.385, 27 2B, 11 3B, 3 HR

That's down a bit from his first 2 seasons, but would anybody really be complaining about it? Particularly in a year in which the average MLB leadoff man hit .264/.329/.382? We'd love to see more walks, but .357 still would have been the 3rd-highest OBP among qualified CF in the Majors. Just for having a more or less ordinary year with BABIP. If he'd had the good fortune he'd had in 2009, the line would have been something like this:

.316/.378/.415, 29 2B, 12 3B, 3 HR

Not quite as many BB or HR, but more H and XBH. Overall, it's basically the same season he had in 2009. That would have easily led all qualified CF in OBP, and placed around 6th in OPS right next to Chris Young, Curtis Granderson and Alex Rios. (His actual 2010 OPS placed him 3rd from the bottom among regular CFs.) 2009 was lucky. 2010 was unlucky. But Span was mostly the same hitter in each campaign.

Why the drop in HR? Need I say more than... Target Field? Span hit 3 HR on the road this year, the same number he hit on the road in 2009. But where the Metrodome had been good to him, yielding 7 HR in 437 AB, Target Field was stingy. Other than the unofficial exhibition blast that christened the new stadium at the end of spring training, Span wasn't able to get a ball out of his home park in 304 AB. He'll probably get a couple at home each year going forward, but we may never see his total HRs approaching double digits as we did in his 1st 2 years.

That's OK, because Span isn't paid to hit the ball out of the park. His job is to get on base. I think that's the biggest reason a lot of smart people are on his case right now. Span's BB rate has declined in each of the past 2 seasons, down to 8.5% of his PA in 2010. That's about half of what Jim Thome did. Patience is slump-proof, and a double-digit BB rate would have kept Span's OBP in the upper .340s at minimum. Where did the BB go?

So far, Span has reached in 100% of his career PA that ended with a 3-0 count. He always takes there. In 2008, a little under 2% of his PA resulted in 4-pitch BB. In 2009, it was a little over 2.1%. For all Major League hitters last season it was 2.1%, but only 9 of Span's 705 PA resulted in 4 straight out of the zone - not quite 1.3%. That has nothing to do with him - it's all about the opposing pitchers. Had they thrown ball 4 there at the normal rate, the rate he'd basically seen in his first 2 seasons, he would have had 15 BB in those situations. I'll assume that he eventually would have walked in about half of those PA anyway, so the net would have been 3 extra BB.

That leaves him about 8-10 BB short relative to 2009. Span is partially to blame for the decline, of course. Compare his full count PA between 2009 and 2010:

2009: 94 PA, 34 BB, 19 K, .225 BABIP (10 for 41)

2010: 92 PA, 26 BB, 14 K, .115 BABIP (6 for 52)

Clearly, there's some more horrendous luck there - the guy had BABIPs over .300 in every other 2-strike count. But there's a huge shift in general outcomes as well: upwards of 56% of his 2009 PAs in this situation resulted in a BB or K; in 2010 that dropped to 43.5%. As with his overall game, he made a lot more contact with the count full than he had previously. That could be the pitchers throwing him more strikes. But I think it's more likely a reflection of a change in approach. Instead of taking that two-seamer under the hands for ball 4 or strike 3 (depending on the umpire), Span put that pitch in play, and almost always made an out.

Is it better to put the ball in play in that situation? Depends. If there's no one on base, I think he might as well take the close pitches and try to work the walk. If there's a RISP with 2 outs and Matt Tolbert on deck, I'd rather have him take a hack and see what happens. Generally, he probably should only put a ball in play about half the time there, far less than he did in 2010.

During the season, there was a report that Span had become more aggressive because opposing pitchers were giving him more 1st-pitch strikes than before. That seems to be true, as his 1st strike percentage went up by about 1 point. But I wouldn't say it was necessarily because he was seeing more early strikes than usual. The proportion of 1-0 counts to 0-1 counts remained basically identical between 2009 and 2010. However, when you swing at the first pitch, it's always a strike, whatever the umpire might have called it. Excluding sacrifices, Span put the first pitch in play just 8.3% of the time in 2009, but that jumped to 11.2% last year. That alone can account for the increase in first-pitch strikes Span saw in 2010. He also saw about a 14% increase in ABs that ended on the 1st or 2nd pitch compared to 2009.

According to FanGraphs, Span actually saw 2% fewer pitches within the strike zone this past season overall. But the counts he found himself in were about the same as the year before, because he swung at more pitches outside the zone. And he made more contact outside the zone. And things tended not to go well when he made contact this year. For all the extra contact, he hit a significantly lower percentage of foul balls, about 9% below his first 2 seasons and the league average. That got me thinking: how many of those 2009 choppers to Jerry White in the coaches' box turned into choppers to Paul Konerko at the bag in 2010? Enough to ruin his ground ball BABIP? The difference in position of the ball in the hitting zone at the point of contact is minute, but the impact on the BA is huge.

So why did Span really get so much more aggressive? I go back to the Gonzalez play I cited above. If I noticed how often he was being robbed, it must have been on Span's mind, too. Maybe he thought those almost-hits would be going off the bat just enough harder if he weren't trying to protect with 2 strikes. Can't let them get to 2 strikes, gotta swing earlier.

That approach worked, at first. At the end of that Toronto series, Span was batting only .259, but he had a .359 OBP thanks to 24 BB in his first 39 games. Beginning with the Boston series the next day, he finished the month by hitting safely in 11 of the last 12 games, going 22 for 49 (.449), but with just 2 BB. His luck ran out on the west coast trip, as he began June with just 1 H in his first 6 games. And, since he was hacking at everything, he drew just one BB to go with it.

So Span has some things he can work on over the winter and spring. He should cut his 1st-pitch swings back down under 20%, and try to sustain the patience he has leading off the game in more of his subsequent PAs. He should be encouraged to keep taking the borderline pitches, especially with nobody in scoring position. If his overriding mentality is always to take 2 strikes, I don't think he can go wrong. He's great at making contact - he shouldn't be afraid to be behind in the count.

On the bases, Span set a career high with 26 SB in 2010 even though his attempts/SB opportunities was the lowest of any of his 3 MLB seasons. He had never been an efficient base-stealer in his earlier seasons, a frustrating deficiency for someone with such impressive speed. He hadn't had a full-season SB% above 69% since rookie ball, generally resulting in net SB in the low teens. 2010 was a breakout in this regard, as he officially succeeded in 86.7% of his attempts, resulting in 22 net SB.

That improved efficiency was tarnished by a high number pickoffs. Span was picked off in about 3% of his SB opportunities. The league average is 0.8%. Since only 2 of the 9 PO resulted in CS (meaning that Span was CS by catchers only twice all season), we have to assume that 7 of them came in situations in which he wasn't actually planning on stealing. Laziness? Lack of focus? I don't have an answer. It seemed like a lot of the pickoffs came in a cluster in the middle of the summer. It could have been a slump, just like pitchers and hitters go through. Whatever the reason, this is an area he will have to clean up next season.

In the field, it's easy to remember the far too frequent balls that dropped harmlessly between Span and one of the corner OF. That's a combination of passiveness and poor communication that he should be able to correct for 2011. He also failed to hold onto an exasperating number of balls at the fringes of his range, balls that he reached with long runs, slides, stretches and dives, but that fell to the outfield grass despite touching leather. Some of that was luck again, but if I were him, I'd ask to get some extra reps on those types of plays in spring training.

In spite of those shortcomings, many of the new defensive metrics ranked Span as an above-average CF. Baseball Prospectus' new system has him as one of the very best defensive CF in 2010. He'll never have a great arm, but his quickness and accuracy with his throws minimizes that weakness. With some continued work with the coaches, he could elevate himself to a universally recognized asset in the OF.

As his luck normalizes, and his excellent approach from 2008-2009 is reinforced, and he makes incremental improvements in his focus on the basepaths and assertiveness in the OF, Span will see excellent results in all facets of his game. He has the determination to work out the things he can control. The wheel of fortune will take care of the rest. I expect Span's 2011 to place solidly within the upper tier of CF/leadoff men in the majors. He's certainly nothing to worry about.

It Ain't Broke

2010-11-08T12:20:00.000-08:00

2010-2011 Offseason Blueprint

Congratulations to the San Francisco Giants on the occasion of their first World Series title in 50+ seasons on the left coast. They join the 2006 Cardinals and 1987 Twins on the short list of weakest rosters to lift the trophy. Their pitching was elite, but their lineup basically consisted of an outstanding rookie and a bunch of past-their-prime castoffs who all managed to have one last good half season at the same time. Of the 8 teams that made it to the postseason, I would have ranked them 7th or 8th, yet they come away with the rings. They are proof that anything can happen in October. The hard part is getting there.

Nobody had an easier time getting to October than the Twins, who clinched their division with 11 games still left on the schedule. However disappointing their ALDS showing against the Yankees, they were by far the class of the AL Central. Whatever moves the front office makes between now and opening day have to be in support of maintaining the dominance over the division this team has already shown.

The Twins are facing some major payroll constraints, thanks mostly to a pair of poor decisions Bill Smith made on either end of the 2009 season. The first was when he chose not to offer Joe Mauer an extension in the spring. Coming off a batting title and gold glove in 2008, Mauer had established himself as the face of the franchise. But he was hobbled by a back injury which wound up costing him all of spring training, his 3rd major DL stint in 6 MLB seasons. Mauer's leverage was never going to be lower. Smith should have offered him a 4-year, $60M-ish extension (including $16M option for 2015) at that time. That's more than Jorge Posada got, and similar to what Justin Morneau got. In the midst of his sacroiliac drama, there's no way Mauer turns that down. But Smith decided to let Mauer come within a year of free agency, and now he's paying him $23M for 2011 instead of $14-15M.

The other misstep came in early November, when Smith exercised Michael Cuddyer's 2011 option based on his 2009 season. I never saw the sense of that. Even if Cuddyer had managed to repeat his career year in 2010, and the Twins wanted him back in RF in 2011, he wouldn't have cost a lot more than $10.5M. A duplicate of 2009 would have likely made Cuddyer a Type A free agent. Offer him arbitration, and if he declines, you've got another high pick in what's projecting to be an especially high quality draft. If you can't resign him, Jason Kubel is your RF and you just need to sign a platoon partner for him for a pittance. Instead, Cuddyer had a pedestrian 2010, but is locked in for something around double what he'd command on the open market.

Those significant constraints notwithstanding, the Twins aren't in bad shape heading into 2011. Here's a potential opening day roster one could assemble from the guys who are currently on the 40-man roster and under team control for next season (click to enlarge):

Bad news: the Twins could replace every departing free agent with a pre-arbitration farmhand and still have a payroll about 10% above what they started with last season.

Good news: This team would still be solidly average or better, almost across the board. The only weak spot in the lineup is Casilla, who has put up league average 2B numbers in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Of the pitchers, only Nick Blackburn is below par, though he, too, has put up above average numbers in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Even with a bevy of rookies on the bench and in the bullpen, this team can contend in the AL Central.

However, there are a tremendous number of what ifs associated with this roster. Can Nathan and Morneau (and Neshek, Hardy, Baker and Slowey) shake off their injuries to deliver performances in line with their career numbers? Can Span, Kubel, Cuddyer and Blackburn bounce back from down years? Can Young, Valencia, and Duensing sustain their breakouts? Can aging prospects like Hughes, Slama, Morales, Tolbert and Delaney finally stick on a big league bench? Can young prospects like Revere and Burnett overcome a lack of experience at AAA to have an impact with the Twins?

The answer to many of those questions will probably be no. But, in many cases, it could be yes. If we knew which areas wouldn't work out, we could focus our offseason personnel decisions around strengthening those positions. But we don't know, and likely couldn't make any definitive determination until the first part of June.

That being the case, my recommendation for this offseason would be to upgrade this roster around the margins while retaining as much talent and payroll flexibility as possible for the trades we'll need to make at the beginning of the summer. Specifically:

1. Let the FA go, but be courageous about offering arbitration.

Carl Pavano, Jim Thome, Orlando Hudson, Brian Fuentes, Randy Flores, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, Ron Mahay and Nick Punto are all free to pursue deals elsewhere. Only Flores, Mahay and Punto are in poor position to expect a multi-year deal from their new team. As it stands now, the Twins can expect to get only 1 of the top 60 or so picks in next year's talented draft class. If they're bold with their arbitration offers, though, they could get as many as 8 picks in that range.

Fuentes, Crain and Rauch are Type B free agents, and all have closer aspirations. They should each be a relative bargain for other clubs looking for "proven" closers. Those clubs don't lose any picks for signing them, though the Twins would gain supplemental first round picks should they offer them arbitration. Any of them would be worthwhile additions to the bullpen should they accept. In fact, if the payroll weren't already so high, I'd actively try to bring back Fuentes and/or Crain. But I'm guessing all of them will test the market, and thereby earn the Twins 3 supplemental picks.

Pavano should be looking for something like what Randy Wolf got from the Brewers last year (at least $30M over 3 years). At the least, he'll be expecting what Joel Pineiro got from the Angels (2 years, $16M). Either way, he's declining arbitration this time around. I have a feeling he'll wind up with one of the bottom half finishers such as the Mets, meaning the Twins would only get a high 2nd round pick and a supplemental pick for him. But that's still a nice tradeoff for a low-risk arbitration offer.

The tricky case is that of Guerrier. Non-closer relievers tend to be a tough sell as Type A's. Guerrier wouldn't be worth giving up a top 30 pick for. But 50th or later? Sure. And there are plenty of scenarios in which that could be the case. Guerrier is the sort of veteran Dayton Moore can't resist signing; KC's 2nd round pick should be around 50th overall. How about a return to his native Cleveland? Or Pittsburgh? Or what about some of the bigger spending teams who could be signing multiple Type A's? After the Yankees grab Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford, would they have any qualms about dropping their 3rd round pick on Guerrier? Better still, what if the team that lands Adam Dunn decides to give up their 2nd-rounder for Guerrier? The Twins would get the 1st-round pick, because Guerrier is actually ranked higher by Elias. The upside could be outstanding. The downside if he accepts arbitration is minimal. I would want to bring back one of the bullpen veterans for 2011. If it has to be Guerrier at $3.5-4M, that's hardly a disaster.

With some cajones and a few good breaks, the Twins could be turning their 2010 veteran sell-off into a pool of talent that will be the core of their team for the 2nd half of the decade. Let's go for it.

2. Use multi-year deals to keep the arbitrator away.

In addition to 10 FA, the Twins have 10 players who are eligible for arbitration. I would non-tender Glen Perkins and Clay Condrey. Casilla, Repko and Neshek get 1-year deals for $1M or less. By offering multi-year deals to 4 of the others, we can trim a few million dollars off the estimated payroll, leaving some headroom with which we can add bigger salaries later in the season.

Quick note: I'm taking my baseline salary estimates from the Twins Centric guys, so there won't be any controversy about the numbers. However, they're way off base with their $2.75M estimate for Slowey. There's no way he gets a lot more than Liriano did in his 1st year of arbitration. He'll get $1.75M at the most.

Hardy's situation is the easiest. The Tigers and Jhonny Peralta just set the market for late 20's, RH SS with some power but no SB: 2 years, $11.25M, with a $6M option for 2013. Compare their 3-year averages:

Peralta: .260/.319/.414, 49 HR, 4/7 SB in about 1900 PA

Hardy: .262/.324/.419, 41 HR, 3/6 SB in about 1450 PA

Hardy is the better fielder, but Peralta has been more durable. They're the same age. Basically, there is no justification for Hardy to expect anything different than what Peralta got, which pays $5.5M in 2011.

Liriano's best comps are Zach Greinke and Josh Johnson, budding aces who missed a considerable chunk of early 20's development time to various ailments. Greinke got 4 years, $38M following his 1st arbitration year in which he was paid $1.4M. Johnson got 4 years, $39M the next year, also after earning $1.4M in his 1st arb year. Liriano just made $1.6M. The other 2 had better numbers in the season before the contract, though, so the Twins could hopefully get away with a bit less, say 4 years, $36M. The others made $3.75 in the 1st year of the deal; I'll structure it so Liriano gets $3.5M next year.

Young should get at least what Matt Kemp got: 2 years, $11M. It might make sense to take it out to 4 years, similar to Mauer's 1st big contract, which paid him $23M over the final 2 years of the deal. Either way, Young makes $4.5M in 2011.

Capps is the backup closer, so we don't want to pay him like the 1st-string guy if he's only setting up. I'd offer him a 3-year deal with a $5M base salary and some pretty massive incentives for Games Finished. Something like an extra $0.5M for every 5 he racks up after 20. That way, if he's out there for 50 save situations, he earns $8M - real closer money, but not so rich that he wouldn't be tradeable to just about anybody. If he stays in the setup role, he's a bit overpaid, but not as much as he would have been on a 1-year deal.

If Guerrier accepts arbitration, he would fall into this category, too. I'd try to get him for 2 years, $8M but pay him just $3.5M of that this season.

All of that shaves around $6M off the payroll, leaving perhaps around $12M to play with over the course of the season.

3. Don't sign anybody until late January.

4. At that time, fill out the roster with some bargain veterans.

Repko will be the bench OF, giving Revere at least a couple hundred PA to continue his development as an everyday player in Rochester.

If Guerrier didn't accept arbitration, here's when we go after Crain (if he's still available) or somebody comparable to give Gardy a little more security at the back end of the 'pen. Between Nathan, Capps, Mijares and Crain, he should be feeling pretty good about the close ones. Burnett will head back to AAA for more seasoning.

I'd like to pick up another LHP, a true LOOGY if no one more versatile is available. Could be Randy Choate, could be our old friend Dennys Reyes. Neither should cost much more than $1M, especially at this stage of the offseason. This gives the Twins the luxury of filling out the 'pen with just 2 of Neshek, Slama and Delaney, leaving the odd man at Rochester as call-up depth.

This was around the time the Twins signed Jim Thome for 2010, the most astute FA signing of the offseason. They have to pull that off again, this time with a RH batter. My choice would be Troy Glaus. Last season proved that he can't hack it as an everyday fielder anymore, but also showed that he has plenty of power left when healthy. As a DH/PH and occasional (say, twice a month) fill-in at 1B, I bet he'd hold up over the season at least as well as Thome did, and for about the same price. He's better against LHP, but not useless against RHP, so he could suitably fill the broader role of "Power off the Bench" whenever we need that 3-run HR but Casilla is coming up.

All that adds up to a little under $107M. Plenty of potential from that roster, but room enough to add some premium talent during the season should there be a need. And it's accomplished without trading any top prospects from the system, leaving those players as potential minor league depth or as pieces of midseason transactions. Good enough for now.

Conclusions

2010-11-01T23:37:00.000-07:00

The 2010 Twins were measurably better than the 2009 version, virtually across the board. They had a stronger rotation, a more even lineup, and a deeper bullpen. Those improvements showed up in 8 more regular season wins, and home field advantage in the ALDS against their nemesis, the Yankees.

It all meant nothing. If anything, the 2010 Twins gave a worse effort against a weaker opponent than the 2009 World Series champs were. They managed to play even for the first 6 innings of Games 1 & 2, but showed little life once they fell behind in the 7th. They hardly showed up for Game 3. New faces, new places, but still the same result. The Twins were swept again, running their postseason series losing streak to 6, home losing streak to 10, and overall losing streak to 12.

They should have been able to do what the Rangers did. After dropping Game 1 of the ALCS in similar fashion, Texas came back to win the next 3. Perhaps the Twins' pitchers couldn't have been expected to shut down the Yankee hitters as effectively as the Rangers' starters did. But the offense should have been able to do just as much damage to the lesser members of the NY rotation. Instead, they were utterly shut down by Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes. Michael Cuddyer fired all his bullets in Game 1. Jim Thome and Jason Kubel did essentially nothing.

So what's the lesson here? Did the Twins lose because their pitchers don't miss enough bats? Should they be trying to trade for Zach Greinke or Jonathan Sanchez or some other strikeout machine? I don't think so. Anybody could have lost with the offense producing like that. That series was about the Twins failing to hit with RISP. Bad luck? Mental block? Just one of those slumps you can get into over any given 3-game stretch?

Whatever it was, it's nothing to panic about. A 94-win team that won its division conclusively does not need to be retooled. Especially when it was competitive against the 5 other playoff teams it encountered during the regular season:

vs. Yankees: 2-4

vs. Rays: 3-5

vs. Rangers: 7-3

vs. Braves: 1-2

vs. Phillies: 2-1

Total: 15-15

Had the Twins drawn the Rays in the 1st round, it might have been a different story. Who knows? I'm not one to give more weight to 3 games against one particular team in October than I do to 162 games against a diverse schedule over 6 months. I'm proud of the 2010 Twins. They accomplished a lot, and with 2 of their elite, All-Star players unavailable for all but half a season.

Many players won't be coming back for 2011, but the core will. I would be very deliberate about breaking that group up with any trades. The payroll will be a challenge, but it's surmountable with patience and creativity. I hope to have more time to post my specific ideas about how to do that in the coming days. In the meantime, my advice to the front office is simply this:

Hold your cards.

I Will Fear No Evil

2010-10-05T23:19:00.000-07:00

ALDS Preview

Obviously, since Ron Gardenhire took over as Twins manager in 2002, things haven't gone well against the Yankees. That's history. Nothing can change it. Let it go. This time can be different. Why?

These aren't the Twins of years past.

When the Yankees swept the Twins in the ALDS last year, the bottom of the Twins' lineup in each game featured some combination of Brendan Harris, Carlos Gomez, Jose Morales, Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto. The 2004 team that lost 3 straight to the Yankees fielded lineups that featured Lew Ford and Henry Blanco. These are bench players. This year's team will finish the lineup with Jason Kubel, Danny Valencia and JJ Hardy. Every hitter has some combination of ROTY votes*, MVP votes or All-Star appearances on their resume. Bona fide starters 1-9.

*Valencia looks like a good bet to finish in the top 3 this year.

These are the Yankees of years past.

They've been here before. Many, many times. Because they're old. Derek Jeter, A-Rod, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte and Lance Berkman are all north of 34. All but Rivera showed it this year, either by missing significant time due to injuries, or by showing declines in production, or both. In previous postseason match-ups the Yankees' core players were in their prime. Now they're well past it.

The earlier series were closer than you think.

The Twins are 2-9 against the Yankees in the postseason. But 3 of those losses came in extra innings. In 3 of the other losses the Twins held the Yankees to 4 or fewer runs. If Cory Koskie's double off Rivera late in game 2 of 2004 had stayed in play rather than bouncing into the stands, the Twins would have come home leading the series 2-0. If Gomez and Punto had been under control on the basepaths last fall, the Twins would have been dead even with the Yanks going into the 9th inning of game 3: series tied at 1, score tied at 2. Even while being badly overmatched from a personnel standpoint, which isn't the case this year.

The Twins are due.

Whether good or bad, streaks don't last forever. The Twins have lost 9 straight postseason games, and 5 straight series. Those streaks have been sustained by teams that came soaring into the 2006 and 2009 postseason on tremendous rolls. They were due to have letdowns. No such trouble this year, as the Twins enter the postseason in a 2-8 malaise. Each of the starters in the postseason rotation, most of the position players and a couple of the key bullpen pitchers have had at least one crappy game in the last 2 weeks. That's good. Everybody has a bad game now and then. Better to get it out of the way in meaningless games against the Tigers and Royals than on the big stage against the Yanks.

It can be done. Here are my keys to making it happen:

1. First Inning, Game 1

The Twins and their fans are carrying a lot of baggage into this series. The players will be more relaxed and the crowd livelier if things get off to a good start. Francisco Liriano has had some early-inning troubles this season. He did not end the regular season on a good note. He needs to have a scoreless 1st inning on Wednesday night. If it's a dominant inning, 1-2-3 with a K on 10 pitches, for example, that's even better.

Since the A lineup was first assembled in Fort Myers, they've been ambushing opposing pitchers in the 1st inning. Some real good ones, including John Danks, Zach Greinke and Felix Hernandez. No reason they can't jump on CC Sabathia, too. An early crooked number would go a long way toward making everyone believe that the Twins can prevail.

2. Michael Must Mash

The Yankees intend to use Sabathia in games 1 & 4 and Pettitte in games 2 & 5. That means that the Twins will be seeing LHP in about 2/3 of 4/5 of the games. This will largely neutralize Joe Mauer (.711 OPS) Jim Thome (.769) and Jason Kubel (.655). That means the righties in the lineup will have to pick up the slack. Delmon Young and Valencia have been doing it for most of the summer. The guy who's been missing lately is Michael Cuddyer. His OPS barely cleared .700 over the final 2 months of the season. However, vs. LHP, he raked at .896 in 2010. He's got to do that vs. Sabathia and Pettitte. If not more.

3. Don't Give Them Anything

The Yankees are very good at scoring runs, but they're actually only a little better than average at hitting. They are exceptionally good at taking walks. The Twins are exceptionally good at not giving up walks. Something's got to give there, and that matchup needs to fall the Twins' way. But it goes for more than walks. No HBP. No extra outs coming from errors. And don't give away any outs on the basepaths, either. This series is going to be tough enough if the Twins play flawlessly.

No more hype. Time to play the games.

10th Split: 7-10

2010-10-03T22:53:00.000-07:00

Overall Record: 94-68

AL Central Champions by 6 games

Other splits: 11-5, 10-6, 7-9, 9-7, 7-10, 7-9, 13-3, 10-6, 13-3

The Twins maintained their searing 2nd half pace through the first 7 games of this split, going 5-2. Over that week, the White Sox lost another 6 straight games, and the division was clinched with rather shocking quickness at the end of September 21st, about 4 days earlier than I expected. It seems that after the Twins' emphatic sweep of the Sox in their home park (9-3, 9-3, 8-5), Ozzie's boys decided to get busy dying.

As the 1st team in the Majors to clinch, and with 2 full weeks before the start of the playoffs, the Twins had the luxury of resting their ailing regulars. Joe Mauer, Jim Thome and JJ Hardy missed virtually all of the season's final road trip. As for the bench guys and September call-ups who filled in for them, well... there's a reason those guys aren't big league starters. The offense sputtered over the final 10 games, scoring 3 or fewer runs 6 times.

Less understandably, the pitching staff mailed it in as well. Francisco Liriano lost his last 3 starts, surrendering more HR (5) in those games than he had in the previous 5 1/2 months (4). Each of the other members of the rotation delivered at least one clunker. That led to lots of opportunities for Glen Perkins, Jeff Manship and Alex Burnett in middle relief. Again, each of them showed why they spent much of the season in the minors, and why their numbers at Rochester weren't that great. The pitching staff coughed up 5 or more R in 7 of the last 10 games.

The defense continued its 2nd half trend of being ordinary at best. The Twins committed 15 errors, remarkably resulting in just 3 unearned runs. The unearned run season total of 33 was the best in the AL (50 seems to be about average). The final fielding percentage numbers were 2nd only to the Yankees.

Speaking of whom, the Twins are going to get a chance to avenge last year's postseason sweep. I hope to have time to address the series in depth before Wednesday night. Suffice it to say, the circumstances are a lot different this time around: the Twins are 8 wins better than 2009 (through 162 games), the Yankees are 8 wins worse. The Twins are rested. They have their rotation set. They have excellent depth in the bullpen. The batting order will end with Danny Valencia and Hardy instead of Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto. And the first 2 games will be at home.

Time to shine, fellas.

Bold prediction: Twins in 4.

9th Split: 13-3

2010-09-16T09:41:00.000-07:00

Overall Record: 87-58

1st in AL Central by 8 games

Other splits: 11-5, 10-6, 7-9, 9-7, 7-10, 7-9, 13-3, 10-6

Wow. To go +10 over a 16 game stretch once in a season is pretty good. To do it twice is really special. That's what the Twins have done in this improbably awesome 2nd-half run. Even in the 3 losses, they were in the game all the way, losing 2-1 to Seattle, 10-9 to Detroit and 2-0 to Cleveland. Other than that, whatever the circumstances, home or away, they found a way to win. They were able to hold their ground during Chicago's blazing hot streak, then pull away once the Sox cooled off.

As I predicted, the offense bounced back to 5+ R/G, thanks to 24 RS over the last 3 games. Jim Thome was the big hitting hero, making huge noise in his limited appearances by blasting 5 majestic HR, including the crucial game-winner in the 12th inning of Saturday's 1-0 affair. He was in the middle of just about every rally, batting .407/.555/1.000. Surprisingly, the only other guys who had a really awesome split were JJ Hardy and Matt Tolbert (only 5 GS, but 3 triples and 8 RBI with 4 BB).

The pitching was just as awesome as the hitting was back in the 7th split. The staff sported an ERA well under 3.00, and allowed just 48 RA over the 16 games. They were led by the rotation, all of the healthy members of which went 3 for 3 in QS. In fact, the only game in which the starter failed to earn a QS for non-injury reasons was Matt Fox' excellent emergency MLB debut vs. the Rangers, and he missed it by one out. The bullpen was fantastic, with the exception of the AAA guys and the execrable Randy Flores, who can't get anybody out, especially lefties.

I wish I could say the defense had shared in the return to excellence. The Twins made 9 more E resulting in 7 unearned runs, raising their season totals to 63 and 30. That puts them behind the Yankees in fielding percentage for the first time this season. Most of the errors have come from the IF, where Michael Cuddyer's best efforts are often insufficient to scoop low throws out of the dirt. But there were plenty of misplays in the OF as well, notably from Delmon Young. If the defense had been playing up to the level of the other phases of the game, the Twins might have gone 15-1 in this split.

But that's overkill, isn't it? The division is soundly in hand, and the Twins have even recovered to within 1.5 games of the best record in the Major Leagues. That potential for home field advantage over the Yankees and Rays should keep them focused all the way to the end, even as they rest many of their key players for a run into October.

Bold prediction: The Twins will clinch the division next weekend in Detroit.

Right Where We Want 'Em

2010-09-14T06:19:00.000-07:00

Twins 0, Indians 2

Twins 1, Indians 0 (12 innings)

Twins 6, Indians 2

Another road trip in which the Twins forgot to put their bats on the plane. Fausto Carmona has been much better this year, and was dominant in 2007, so for him to deal a 3-H shutout is as palatable as such a thing can be. But how does it take the Twins 21 innings to get a run against an Indians pitching staff that has allowed the 3rd most runs in the league? Yikes, that was a horrifying display of futility. I feel like Twins' fans are saying this almost daily now, but I'll say it again: Thank goodness for Jim Thome.

And thank goodness for Carl Pavano and good Nick Blackburn. The pitching staff kept the team in the game for every one of those dreadful scoreless innings. (No thanks to Randy Flores, who allowed both lefties he faced to reach.) As depressing as it is to allow only 2 ER in 29 innings over 3 games and lose one, it's incredibly fortunate to score just once in 2 games and come away with a W.

The offense was bound to go off on Sunday, and they did, with a bat-around, 5-R top of the 1st. The Tribe gave the Twins at least one extra out in the frame. We'll take it. The game was never really close after that. Cleveland's runs came on the heels of an extra out given by the Twins, but Kevin Slowey and 4 relievers had things in hand all day.

Kansas City had a great chance to steal a series from the Sox, but they gave them an extra out in the bottom of the 8th (thanks, Yunieski Betancourt) that led to 3 unearned runs. Why Joakim Soria doesn't come in to face the middle of the Sox lineup there, I do not understand. It's not like he got tired out facing the Twins during the week. But whatever. The Twins kept pace with the Sox, maintaining their 6 game lead in the standings and reducing the Magic Number to 14.

This sets up the final showdown with the White Sox in Chicago this week. It is an absolute must-sweep situation for the Sox, and even that would leave them 3 games back with 16 to play. Their remaining schedule includes 4 games against the Red Sox and a west coast trip with a stop in Oakland, where they have struggled in recent years as much as the Twins have in Toronto. If the Twins win even one game, the Sox will have at least 5 games to make up. If the Twins win the series, as they have won every head-to-head series so far this year, the deficit will be at least 7 games, and the dirt will start landing on the Sox' coffin.

The Sox have lined up their best starters to pitch this series, but so have the Twins. Francisco Liriano and Pavano have labored at times against the Sox, so they'll need to have their best stuff. The Sox have been making a living off of late-inning comebacks in recent weeks, so the bullpen needs to be at its best. It comes into the series fairly well rested, and Brian Fuentes and Jose Mijares are available again, meaning Flores will be the 3rd (at least) option against lefties.

We know Joe Mauer, Jason Kubel and Jim Thome are going to hit - they've been doing it all year. The big key for me is the righties in the Twins' lineup. Michael Cuddyer has owned John Danks throughout his career - we'll need another big hit or two out of him. Delmon Young has been slumping since the beginning of August - he needs to finish as strongly as he did last September. JJ Hardy and Danny Valencia need to keep producing at the bottom of the lineup.

Times are already desperate for the White Sox. The Twins don't need to place any special urgency on any of the games, but it would be great for them to win the opener. Their work would be immediately done, and they could relax for the rest of the series and just have fun. The Sox, meanwhile, would go from desperate to dire, and they may even lose heart if they fail in their mission to sweep. A leisurely last couple of weeks would mean a lot to a Twins team that was badly undermanned just a couple of weeks ago. I'm hoping for a conclusive showing this week in Chicago. The Twins have proven all year that they're the best team in the Central. After Thursday, there should be very little reason to doubt it.

Leverage

2010-09-09T22:18:00.000-07:00

I have to admit, having a newborn and a 2 year old does put a bit of a damper on the blogging. It doesn't stop me from keeping a close eye on the Twins, though...

Twins 4, Tigers 3

Twins 2, Tigers 1 (10 innings)

Twins 9, Tigers 10 (13 innings)

The crappy hitting from the road trip lingered into the first 2 games of this series. Luckily, Brian Duensing and Francisco Liriano each pitched into the 7th inning, and neither allowed any ER. The Twins still ended up using at least 4 relievers in each game, including Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Matt Capps in both.

The offense got plenty of help from the Detroit bullpen on Tuesday, with 2 BB and 2 HBP contributing to the winning rally. One of the HBP knocked Jason Kubel out for the next 4 games, however. That certainly made things tougher in Wednesday's contest. Thanks to other nagging injuries, the Twins were also without Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome. Danny Valencia delivered a couple more big hits in the middle of the two scoring rallies, and the Twins managed to win a game in which they only had 8 baserunners in 10 innings.

The Thursday night fiasco was as much a result of catastrophic mismanagement of the roster as anything that happened on the field. On Wednesday, the Twins had the opportunity to call up as many warm bodies from AAA as they had on the 40-man roster. They cavalierly elected to bring up only 2 position players, Trevor Plouffe and Jose Morales. No pitchers, even though Brian Fuentes was ailing and 3 of their righties should have been considered unavailable for Thursday. The bullpen effectively consisted of Jon Rauch, Randy Flores and Jeff Manship.

Manship was called into service almost immediately, as Scott Baker was removed with elbow soreness after 2 laborious and ineffective IP. Manship held the Tigers to 1 R on 4 H over 4 IP, and Rauch pitched a scoreless 7th. Meanwhile, the offense finally broke out, scoring 7 R on 12 H, with the help of a BB and a couple of Tiger errors. With the score 7-3 heading to the 8th, the Twins looked as though they would match the White Sox' 3-game sweep of the Indians. Once Flores allowed a 1-out HR, fill-in manager Scott Ullger (Gardy had been tossed during the previous inning for correctly arguing a call) decided to go to the 'pen for... the exhausted Guerrier. Whoops. Guerrier gave up 3 H and left with the score tied, though the last 2 R of the frame came on yet another too-low throw from JJ Hardy which Michael Cuddyer couldn't dig out.

The Twins scratched another run in the bottom half, but let the Tigers tie it again when Crain allowed his first HR in ages. He was available, but Capps wasn't? Anyway, Crain labored through 2 IP. Then Duensing came in for 2 IP, forcing the Twins to push back his Sunday start. Then Nick Blackburn came in, forcing the Twins to scratch him from Friday's start. This was a game to give the White Sox hope, as the Twins fumbled a 4-R lead late, then decimated their rotation in a drawn out losing effort.

Still, it was a series win, and it lowered the magic number to 26.

Twins 4, Rangers 3

Twins 12, Rangers 4

Twins 6, Rangers 5

The Twins were forced to add Matt Fox to the 40-man roster to start Friday's game. He had a terrific MLB debut: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB. That kept the Twins in the game long enough to string a few hits together and take a 4-3 lead after 7 innings. Capps came in for a 5-out save after Flores failed to retire the lefty he was brought in to face.

After 6 straight 1-run games, it was nice to finally win one comfortably. The Twins annihilated Rangers starter Colby Lewis (on my fantasy team - making the result ever so slightly bittersweet) for 9 ER in 3.2 IP. Thome put an exclamation point on the day with 2 HR, moving him into sole possession of 9th on the all-time HR list. Carl Pavano delivered another 8-inning QS. Ian Kinsler soured the afternoon by homering off Rob Delaney in his MLB debut.

The Twins led most of the way in the finale. Blackburn delivered another 7-inning QS. The Twins broke the game open by taking advantage of a bunch of BB in the 6th. Rauch tried to finish up the last 2 innings, but gave up an RBI 2B with 2 out in the 9th. In came Matt Capps, who proceeded to allow all four batters he faced to reach. The final IF hit resulted in the last out when the 3B ump ruled that baserunner Michael Young had made contact with the third base coach. Whatever. I'll take it. That was frighteningly close to being a repeat of Thursday night. Instead, it was another Twins' sweep, making them 6-0 vs. the Rangers at home.

The White Sox swept the Red Sox in Fenway, once again getting away with a late rally. No help there. But the 3 Twins wins lowered the magic number to 23.

Twins 5, Royals 4

Twins 10, Royals 3

Twins 4, Royals 3

Almost a repeat of the Texas series. The Twins got just enough offense to win on Monday night. Flores again allowed the only lefty he faced to reach. But a more rested Guerrier came on to bail him out.

The middle game was a comfy blowout, capped by another loud blast from Thome, a moonshot into the stars of the American Flag in Target Plaza estimated at 480 feet. Another Rochester guy, Pat Neshek this time, was given a rude welcome to the big leagues while mopping up in the 9th.

The Twins beat Zach Greinke again in the finale, waiting until the middle innings to string some hits together. Duensing was stellar for 8 IP. Capps almost let the game get away in the 9th.

This time, the White Sox faltered, finishing their 10-game road trip with 3 straight losses in Detroit. That, combined with another Twins sweep, elevated the Twins' lead in the division to a season-high 6 games, and dropped the magic number to 17 with 22 games to play.

An 8-1 home stand. And had the Twins gotten a good throw from Hardy in that critical 8th inning against the Tigers, it could have been 9-0. Not a lot of hitting, but it was timely. Very strong pitching. And some nice breaks, too. Everything is going the Twins' way as they head into the final 3 1/2 weeks of the season.

Missed Trip

2010-08-31T22:15:00.001-07:00

Last Monday morning, I took my wife to the hospital for an induction - our OB was going on vacation on Wednesday, and you don't want to go the distance with one guy just to have his sub handle the most important part at the end. There was Wi-Fi in the Labor and Delivery ward, but somehow I never really got around to it.

Our son, Daniel, was born just after lunch on Tuesday. He was 10 pounds even. My wife pushed him out in 5 minutes with no drugs. She is Wonder Woman. Daniel has huge hands and a long frame. Scouts are already buzzing about how projectable he is. Fingers crossed that he turns out to be left handed.

There were Twins games. I only read the box scores and the write-ups. In short:

Twins 0, Rangers 4

Great job by Nick Blackburn: 7 IP, 8 H, 0 BB 5 K. 3 of the H didn't make it out of the IF, and he allowed only one XBH. That's the guy we all know and love.

And least it wasn't a no-hitter.

Twins 3, Rangers 4

Not enough hitting, though still a game the Twins should have won - another ball dropped between OF, extending an inning in which the Rangers scored 2 with 2 out. A microcosm of Denard Span's difficult season: that OF miscue, plus an 0-4 that included a liner to the pitcher and a diving grab of a liner in CF. Not enough balls fall in when he's hitting, too many fall in when he's fielding.

Twins 3, Rangers 4

Needed a big hit from Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young or Jason Repko. Brian Duensing had a rare game in which he couldn't keep the ball in the yard.

Twins 6, Rangers 4

Ah, there were the big hits from Cuddyer and Young. Superb start from Francisco Liriano: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. Matt Guerrier still looks a little shaky.

Twins 6, Mariners 3

Everybody hits! (Except Drew Butera.) Another QS from Scott Baker.

Twins 1, Mariners 0

Nobody hits! But neither do the Mariners, as Nick Blackburn comes within 1 out of a 2 H CG shutout. That was 8.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K. I could get used to that. Newly acquired LHP Brian Fuentes gets the save instead of Matt Capps.

Twins 1, Mariners 2

Nobody hits! This time the Mariners bunch 3 of their 5 H together around some shaky defense by the Twins. Another very good start from Pavano wasted.

The Twins scored just 20 R in the 7 games of this trip. Like their week in the AL West in early June, they left their bats at home, yet still came back with 3 wins. Not too bad, considering.

The White Sox finished the week 3-3, meaning that the Twins gave back half a game in the standings, but reduced their magic number by 6 to 28 with 31 games to play.

8th Split: 10-6

2010-08-28T11:43:00.000-07:00

Overall Record: 74-55

1st in AL Central by 3.5 games

Other splits: 11-5, 10-6, 7-9, 9-7, 7-10, 7-9, 13-3

The Twins backed up their best split of the year with a very good one. More importantly, they took charge of the AL Central race, beating the White Sox 3 out of 5 times head to head, then outplaying them by another 1.5 games over the remainder of the split. They managed to do this despite being outscored by 10 R. This was made possible by a fortuitous distribution of their runs.

This was some of the Twins' weakest offensive production of the season. They averaged just 3.4 R/G. Even so, they were able to bunch some offense together in certain games. They scored 6 or more R six times, and won all of those games, including a couple of crucial 7-6 wins against the Sox. But they were held to 3 or fewer runs 7 times, 5 in the last 9 games. The magic pixie dust that covered the offense a couple of weeks ago has blown away.

It seems to have landed on the pitching staff, however. They allowed just 4.1 R/G. Throw out a couple of lopsided losses to the Sox and Angels, and it drops to 3.2 R/G. The Twins got a couple of outstanding starts from just about everybody in the rotation, including a shutout from Brian Duensing, a combined shutout started by Scott Baker, 7 hitless IP from Kevin Slowey, and another CG (loss) from Carl Pavano. Slowey was lost to the DL, but Nick Blackburn returned to control the Rangers for 7 IP in their home park. Only Glen Perkins stands out as consistently struggling.

The defense struggled mightily at times. That is reflected both in a rather high number of E (12) and unearned R (5), bringing the season totals to 54 and 23. But there are also still fly balls dropping between OF, DPs going unturned, low throws that Michael Cuddyer can't quite dig out of the dirt. After 80% of the season, I'm convinced that the OF defense anchored by Denard Span in CF and Delmon Young in LF is indeed a liability. Justin Morneau's glove is missed at 1B just as much as his bat in the cleanup spot.

With the Sox now in the rearview mirror, the Twins can control their own fate from here on out. Only 10 of their final 33 games are against winning teams. 19 of those games will be played at Target Field, where the Twins have a .645 winning percentage. If things continue the way they have up to this point, the Twins should finish up with 93 wins. Just to match that and force a 163rd game tie-breaker (in MN), the Sox would have to go 23-11 the rest of the way. Possible, but a tall order for any team.

Bold prediction: The Twins will average 5 R/G over this next split, and extend their lead over the Sox to at least 5 games.

Baby Watch

2010-08-22T20:45:00.000-07:00

Twins 7, Angels 2

The due date for my 2nd child was Thursday. That took even my mind off baseball for most of the weekend. On Friday, my wife decided to go to the mall for one last pre-natal outing. We saw "Scott Pilgrim vs. the World," which I thoroughly enjoyed. By the time we got back to the house at quarter after 7:00, this game was already just about over.

Brian Duensing seems to know what he's doing. Did he figure something out last year? Were his so-so numbers at AAA a fluke? We'll have to wait and see, but he's been a revelation in the rotation for 2 straight summers. He followed his 3-H shutout from last weekend with this line: 8 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K. That brought his season ERA down to 1.92.

The offense came from a 2-out, 3-run HR from Jason Kubel, some hits strung together in the 4th, and a couple of SF. The pitchers worked quickly, the hitters put the ball in play - a tidy little well-played game.

Twins 3, Angels 9

Unlike this game. Angels starter Trevor Bell had no command. On top of that, umpire Jerry Layne had a rather small strike zone. Bell walked 3 in the bottom of the 1st, the first 2 scoring on Michael Cuddyer's 2-out single, and the 3rd moving Cuddyer into scoring position for Delmon Young. In keeping with a couple of the games from the White Sox series, that big 1st-inning lead was immediately given back by the Twins' starter. Kevin Slowey allowed all the hits he should have given up last Sunday in the 2nd inning. The Angels batted around and scored 4 times. Slowey would have to leave with a sore triceps after pitching out of another jam in the 3rd.

The Twins had an opportunity to immediately equalize in their half of the 2nd. JJ Hardy led off with a BB. At that point, Bell had thrown 38 pitches, only half of which were strikes, while walking 4 of the first 9 batters he faced. For me, that puts the lineup into "take 2 strikes" mode - anything less risks letting a wild pitcher off the hook. Denard Span and Orlando Hudson didn't do that. Span was hit in the foot on the 2nd pitch while showing bunt, but the pitch was ruled a strike because he failed to draw the bat back. There's no sacrificing when a pitcher is this wild! You'll get the lead runner to 2nd base when the pitcher puts you on. Hardy was able to move up on a WP, and Span's fly out moved him to 3rd with 1 out. Still a productive PA, I guess. Ahead 3-1, Hudson reached for an outside pitch and grounded out to SS, holding Hardy at 3B. Had those two come to the plate with the idea of taking 2 strikes firmly in their minds, the Twins could have the bases loaded with no outs for Joe Mauer. That's what Bell gave them, but they didn't take it.

The game got worse from there. Jeff Manship and Glen Perkins combined to pitch 4.2 of the last 6 innings, allowing 3 ER on 8 H and 1 BB. The other 2 runs came as a result of Span dropping the 3rd out of 6th inning on the warning track for an E. That forced Ron Mahay to face one more batter. While attempting to field the squibber behind the mound that resulted from that AB, Mahay slipped and hurt his shoulder - he'll go on the DL. 3 1/2 hours to play 9 innings, 2 E, 2 unearned R, 2 guys on the DL. That's a forgettable game.

Twins 4, Angels 0

No doubt fearing another appearance from evil Scott Baker, the Twins wisely chose to squander their early scoring opportunities. By the time they broke out with a 4-run 5th, good Scott Baker was safely entrenched in a groove of effectiveness - he allowed only a BB in the 2 innings following the outburst.

That included Danny Valencia's 2nd career HR and a 2-out, bases clearing 2B from Michael Cuddyer. Another clean, crisply played game in under 3 hours. I hope our impending labor goes more like this game than Saturday's. (If you don't hear from me after the Texas series, you can guess why...)

Notes:

The Twins finish the season series with the Angels at 5-2, and have gone 11-1 at home so far vs. the AL West.
This concludes a 7-2 home stand, and lifts the Twins to 14-6 in August. They have gone a full month since their last series loss. You're savoring that, right? It won't always be like this...
Meanwhile, the Sox went to extra innings in all 3 games in Kansas City, and came out on the short end twice. That brings the Twins' division lead to 5 games, and lowers their magic number to 34 with 38 games left to play.